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26 мая, 00:39

В США обвинили General Motors в нарушениях экологических норм

В США обвинили General Motors в нарушениях экологических норм

26 мая, 00:25

Быстрая старость не позволит Азии разбогатеть

На протяжении десятилетий страны Азии являются мировыми чемпионами по темпам роста экономики, и этот год не станет исключением.

26 мая, 00:15

Another Member Of Mises Cuba Is Now Missing

Update from Mises Cuba: Nelson Rodriguez Chartrand, who disappeared Monday night, has reappeared. He was beaten and spooked, but alive and in one piece. Details in a few days. Sincere thanks to the supporters of our international wing who mobilized on his behalf. *  *  * Authored by Tho Bishop via The Mises Institute, Mises Cuba has announced that Nelson Rodríguez Chartrand is missing. The organization believes he was taken by state security forces. In February, Ubaldo Herrera Hernandez, another member of Mises Cuba, was arrested by an undercover state agent along with fellow human rights activist Manuel Velazquez Visea. Since then, the two have been charged with additional crimes and placed in the notorious Melena II maximum security prison. Other libertarian activists on the island have been threatened and temporarily detained by Cuban officials. Chartrand, an attorney and fierce critic of the Castro regime, was last seen on Monday at 11 p.m. heading toward the Benjamin Franklin libertarian library. He never made it to the building, the same location where Hernandez and Visea were arrested in February. Calls placed to hospitals in the area have found no record of Chartrand being admitted. He has also not turned up on any official arrest records. If Chartrand was taken by state security, it may be in response to recent actions taken by Mises Cuba and other libertarian organizations on the island. Also on Monday night, a new libertarian library was launched in the province of Camaguey. This followed the recent launch of the Cuban Libertarian Party founded earlier this month. Mr. Chartrand’s own article about the launch ominously noted that state security told a member of the organization “the project will last until the regime allows it.” As he went on to write: We will not be overcome by fear. As the Greek saying goes:   “Society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.” We do not fear reprisals about our bodies, because our ideas will transcend and I will get freedom. We do not fear any attacks against our bodies, because our ideas will transcend and achieve freedom. Our hopes and prayers are with the family and friends of Mr. Chartrand, Hernandez, and Visea, as well as with all those willing to risk their safety promoting liberty in communist Cuba. Tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito.

26 мая, 00:05

К Кубку конфедераций-2017 РЖД усилит меры безопасности на вокзалах

К Кубку конфедераций-2017 РЖД усилит меры безопасности на вокзалах

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25 мая, 23:51

List of Seven Troubles Assailing the US Economy as We Head into Summer

The following article by David Haggith was published on The Great Recession Blog: The following is not simply a list of negative risks to the economy but a list of of serious economic conditions that are already placing drought-like pressures on the overall economy. This list doesn’t include the long-term structural problems with the economy, such as its high debt burden, but just the forces that have risen against it this year.  First-quarter US GDP growth slowed to a stagnant 0.7% (annualized) — stagnant in that population growth alone should cause GDP to rise more than that. So, really, GDP per capita is in recession, though that is not technically how a recession is called. Moody’s just downgraded China’s credit rating for the first time in thirty years, warning of fading financial strength as economy-wide debt mounts. Moody’s attributed the growing risk to years of credit-fueled stimulus, indicating the Chinese economy has grown reliant on stimulus. China’s debt was growing at an annualized rate of $4 trillion (30% of GDP)! China’s efforts to contain stimulus bubbles are expected to inhibit its economic growth, which will bring down the global prices of commodities like iron, copper and oil with similar collateral impact in the US to what we saw last time commodities like oil crashed. The Shanghai Composite stock index has fallen about 10% in less than two months. (Recall the damage China did to global stock markets from the summer of 2015 through early 2016 as the Chinese market melted down and China had to socialize most of its own stock market to save it from utter ruin. Today the Chinese government market saviors rushed in to prop it up again.) The Federal Reserve appears to be set on lowering Fed stimulus, while it is also becoming clear that no fiscal stimulus will come out of the federal government this year. Even those working on Obamacare and the Trump Tax plan say early 2018 is the best they can now hope for. The Fed has a track record of killing recoveries by remaining headstrong on stimulus retreat once it starts down that path. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and everything investors have been banking on looks increasingly uncertain at the moment. With no fiscal rain at at time when the streams of monetary stimulus are drying up, this promises to be a dry summer. If the Republican-led house and senate become even more divided, just remember Lincoln warned, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.” The stock market has stopped rising, and the breadth of stocks that are rising against those that are falling has slowed to a mere trickle. Only a few stocks performing very well are keeping indexes afloat. Other than the five fabulous FAANG stocks, the market has been receding since March. Correspondingly, the number of stocks still trading above their 200-day moving average is growing quite narrow. The volume of advancing issues on a fifty-day moving average has fallen sharply. Price momentum has stalled. These are  all traditionally fairly sound signs of a market top. The minute [markets] stop moving, a powerful, even if short-lived, impulse takes over to reevaluate, cherry-pick and average down. Even if you’re sure the story hasn’t run its course, it takes real moxie to remain exposed to the other side of trades you were very comfortably holding for the previous weeks and months. We’re all leery of getting caught in over-crowded trades…. This is a be nimble, very nimble, environment…. Traders will need skills that have atrophied over years. (Zero Hedge) Existing home sales started drying up rapidly in April, falling back 2.3% (measured in number of units sold). Home prices remain hot, in fact, spiking another 6.6%, as inventory of available homes remains slight but has started to build. The amount of time a house remains on the market jumped almost half a month just between March and April. That’s the way things get at the moment of climate change when buyers are unwilling to endure escalating prices and sellers are unwilling to lower prices. (March’s sales hit the same hot summit they last attained in 2007. Ring a bell as to what might come next?) Construction of new homes and sales of new homes also plunged in April. New-home sales fell 11.4% from a nine-and-a-half year high. These drops imply a hit to second-quarter GDP, where housing plays a major role, but it remains to be seen if April was a one-off or an inversion in the housing climate. Bankruptcies are on the rise where it matters most. The Southern District of the bankruptcy courts of New York, which includes all the major national and international businesses headquartered in Manhattan, saw a sharp rise in Chapter 11 and Chapter 15 cases. Chapter 11’s tripled in the first quarter while Chapter 15’s shot up seven-fold in. A lot of this is due to the all-out crash of major brick-and-mortar retail. Millions who are laid off in this collapse will not find jobs at highly automated Amazon, which is replacing brick and mortar stores. (And what will be the knock-on effect as anchor stores in malls close, strongly impacting the customer draw to malls for smaller retailers?) Auto sales also dried up, down 8.2% from their December peak. For over a year, I’ve been warning that auto sales would wither in 2017. Desperate tactics that made sales great during 2016, I pointed out, would lead to a major failure this year, exactly as happened during the financial crisis when automakers teetered into or to the brink of bankruptcy at the same time as home owners. Ford just fired its CEO due to failing sales and is slashing 10% of its global work force (cutting about 20,000 employees, about half in the US, offsetting the 700 Ford jobs Trump recently saved). Even Ford’s mainstay truck sales are down. US automakers have, exactly as I predicted last year, entered an auto recession.   There is a fair amount of high pressure building that could mean a withering el-niño summer for the economy during a time when Fed relief, which the economy has grown dependent on, is drying up while fiscal refreshment is going to remain distant. As additional pressures build against the economy in the next week or two, I’ll add to the end of this list at The Great Recession Blog. So, you may want to check back.

25 мая, 23:50

Wards Slashes 2017 Auto SAAR Forecast; Sees May Sales Down 1.9% YoY

With the bottom seemingly falling out from under the auto market over the past several months, all eyes will be looking to May sales for confirmation of whether the recent 17-18mm unit SAAR range is truly a 'plateau' (Ford's description, not ours) or the peak of another massive auto bubble.  In their monthly preview, Wards has decided to play in safe in May by forecasting a flat-ish MoM SAAR of 16.9mm units, which is down roughly 1.9% YoY.  The seasonally adjusted annual rate for the month will be 16.9 million vehicles, down from 17.3 million last year.   "While consumers will see substantial discounts this Memorial Day weekend, they are not expected to overcome the slowing demand in auto sales," said Deirdre Borrego, senior vice president of automotive data and analytics at J.D. Power. Of course, 16.9mm would put the May SAAR right at the bottom end of the plateau-range that first developed as far back as 2014.   The May decline also prompted Wards to cut their forecast for 2017 to 17.2 million units from 17.5 million units. Meanwhile, here is how Wards sees May playing out for the largest OEMs:   Of course, we suspect that incremental information on how the OEMs approached discounts during the month and the corresponding impact on excessive dealer inventories will be even more important than the headline SAAR number.  On this front, Wards figures that discounts averaged $3,583 for the month of May, another all-time high.  The consultancies said consumer discounts averaged $3,583 per unit, a record for the month, surpassing the previous high for the month of $3,342, set in May last year.   The average number of days a new vehicle sits on a dealer's lot before being sold hit 71 in the first 14 days of May, the highest level for any month since July 2009. The only question is whether another month of record high incentive spending was enough to make a dent in those stubbornly high inventories which stood at 76 days at the end of April...   ...or a mere 4.2mm vehicles.   So, plateau or bubble...that is the question.

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25 мая, 23:41

Текст: Нейронные связи государственного управления. ( Конюков Валерий )

Предисловие.      Используя дедуктивный метод анализа, будем  постепенно продвигаться от общих выводов в моих  работах, представленных ранее (смотрите их на моей странице),  к более конкретным решениям, затрагивающих жизнь каждого из нас. Рассчитываю, что вы примете активное участие в обсуждении данных инициатив.         Большая часть моих предложений остаётся без внимания или принимаются половинчатые решения. Например, вместо введения полноценного закрытого контура безналичного обращения в дополнение к существующему открытому, способного вытащить экономику из провала,  принято решение о введении продовольственных карточек.  Безусловно, это необходимая для поддержания беднейших сл...

25 мая, 23:30

РЖД: значимых потерь от вируса WannaCry не было

IT-система ОАО "Российские железные дороги" подверглась атаке компьютерного вируса WannaCry, но существенных потерь не понесла. Об этом в программе "Мнение" рассказал президент РЖД Олег Белозеров.

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25 мая, 23:24

What Not To Buy In Today's Stock Market

Authored by Vitaliy Katsenelson via Contrarian Edge blog, Dear reader, if you are overcome with fear of missing out on the next stock market move; if you feel like you have to own stocks no matter the cost; if you tell yourself, “Stocks are expensive, but I am a long-term investor”; then consider this article a public service announcement written just for you. Before we jump into the stock discussion, let’s quickly scan the global economic environment. The health of the European Union did not improve in 2016, and Brexit only increased the possibility of other “exits” as the structural issues that render this union dysfunctional went unfixed.   Japan’s population has not gotten any younger since the last time I wrote about it — it is still the oldest in the world. Japan’s debt pile got bigger, and it remains the most indebted developed nation (though, in all fairness, other countries are desperately trying to take that title away from it). Despite the growing debt, Japanese five-year government bonds are “paying” an interest rate of –0.10 percent. Imagine what will happen to its government’s budget when Japan has to start actually paying to borrow money commensurate with its debtor profile.   Regarding China, there is little I can say that I have not said before. The bulk of Chinese growth is coming from debt, which is growing at a much faster pace than the economy. This camel has consumed a tremendous quantity of steroids over the years, which have weakened its back — we just don’t know which straw will break it.   S&P 500 earnings have stagnated since 2013, but this has not stopped analysts from launching their forecasts every year with expectations of 10–20 percent earnings growth . . . before they gradually take them down to near zero as the year progresses. The explanation for the stagnation is surprisingly simple: Corporate profitability overall has been stretched to an extreme and is unlikely to improve much, as profit margins are close to all-time highs (corporations have squeezed about as much juice out of their operations as they can). And interest rates are still low, while corporate and government indebtedness is very high — a recipe for higher interest rates and significant inflation down the road, which will pressure corporate margins even further. I am acutely aware that all of the above sounds like a broken record. It absolutely does, but that doesn’t make it any less true; it just makes me sound boring and repetitive. We are in one of the last innings (if only I knew more about baseball) of the eight-year-old bull market, which in the past few years has been fueled not by great fundamentals but by a lack of good investment alternatives. Starved for yield, investors are forced to pick investments by matching current yields with income needs, while ignoring riskiness and overvaluation. Why wouldn’t they? After all, over the past eight years we have observed only steady if unimpressive returns and very little realized risk. However, just as in dating, decisions that are made due to a “lack of alternatives” are rarely good decisions, as new alternatives will eventually emerge — it’s just a matter of time. The average stock out there (that is, the market) is very, very expensive. At this point it almost doesn’t matter which valuation metric you use: price to ten-year trailing earnings; stock market capitalization (market value of all stocks) as a percentage of GDP (sales of the whole economy); enterprise value (market value of stocks less cash plus debt) to EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) — they all point to this: Stocks were more expensive than they are today only once in the past century, that is, during the dot-com bubble. In reference to this fact, my friend and brilliant short-seller Jim Chanos said with a chuckle, “I am buying stocks here, because once they went higher . . . for a year.” Investors who are stampeding into expensive stocks through passive index funds are buying what has worked — and is likely to stop working. But mutual funds are not much better. When I meet new clients, I get a chance to look at their mutual fund holdings. Even value mutual funds, which in theory are supposed to be scraping equities from the bottom of the stock market barrel, are full of pricey companies. Cash (which is another way of saying, “I’m not buying overvalued stocks”) is not a viable option for most equity mutual fund managers. Thus this market has turned professional investors into buyers not of what they like but of what they hate the least (which reminds me of our political climate). In 2016 less than 10 percent of actively managed funds outperformed their benchmarks (their respective index funds) on a five-year trailing basis. Unfortunately, the last time this happened was 1999, during the dot-com bubble, and we know how that story ended. To summarize the requirements for investing in an environment where decisions are made not based on fundamentals but due to a lack of alternatives, we are going to paraphrase Mark Twain: “All you need in this life [read: lack-of-alternatives stock market] is ignorance and confidence, and then success is sure.” To succeed in the market that lies ahead of us, one will need to have a lot of confidence in his ignorance and exercise caution and prudence, which will often mean taking the path that is far less traveled.  

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25 мая, 23:20

Текст: Уточнение и дополнение к работам "НЭМО Прогрессизм. Формации общества" и "Система самозащиты общества". Часть 4. ( Конюков Валерий )

 И так в части 1: мной предоставлены аксиомы, на основе которых строились исследования, объяснено наличие "точки отсечения", сформирована теорема точки отсечения, предоставлена компактная формулировка определения КАПИТАЛ, выведено основное противоречие КАПИТАЛА, объяснено преодоление данного противоречия в зависимости от типа общественной формации;   в части 2: прояснены типы политических взглядов господствующего класса в зависимости от типа формации, в режиме он-лайн написания статьи разобрана ошибочность пирамиды Маслоу, представлена пирамида деградационного развития, объяснено наличие 3-х биологических и социальных законов, влияющих на выживаемость вида; &nbs...

25 мая, 23:18

РЖД: спецограничений по перевозкам в Латвию нет

РЖД не вводят и не вводили никаких специальных ограничений по перевозкам зерна в Латвию. Об этом в программе "Мнение" заявил президент Российских железных дорог Олег Белозеров. Он уточнил, что есть технологические ограничения, которые нужно соблюдать.

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25 мая, 23:15

В Подмосковье появится более 60 тысяч бесплатных парковочных мест

Во подмосковных дворах появится более 60 тысяч бесплатных парковочных мест. Речь в данном случае идет только о бесплатной обустроенной парковке