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17 июля, 14:39

EG: Aggregate Effects of Budget Stimulus: Evidence from the Large Fiscal Expansions Database | PIIE

EG: **Jérémie Cohen-Setton, Egor Gornostay, and Colombe Ladreit de Lacharrière**: _[Aggregate Effects of Budget Stimulus: Evidence from the Large Fiscal Expansions Database](https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/aggregate-effects-budget-stimulus-evidence-large-fiscal-expansions)_: "This paper estimates the effects of fiscal stimulus on economic activity using a novel database on large fiscal expansions for 17 OECD countries for the period 1960–2006. The database is constructed by combining the statistical approach to identifying large shifts in fiscal policy with narrative evidence from contemporaneous policy documents. When correctly identified, large fiscal stimulus packages are found to have strong and persistent expansionary effects on economic activity, with a multiplier of 1 or above. The effects of stimulus are largest in slumps and smallest in booms ... ---- #noted

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17 июля, 14:37

Links for 1969-12-31 [del.icio.us]

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17 июля, 14:30

FLASHBACK: Obama: Migrant Children Without Humanitarian Claims Will Be Sent Back. President Bara…

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FLASHBACK: Obama: Migrant Children Without Humanitarian Claims Will Be Sent Back. President Barack Obama took a tough line on the thousands of unaccompanied migrant children who have crossed the nation’s southern border in recent months, saying those without humanitarian claims will be subject to return to their home countries. . . . “Typically refugee status […]

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17 июля, 14:15

The AEA’s New Data Policy

The AEA has long had a data repository but no one was responsible for examining the data or replicating a paper’s results and confidential data was treated as an exception. All that is about to change. The AEA has hired a Data Editor, Lars Vilhuber. Vilhuber will be responsible for verifying that the author’s code […] The post The AEA’s New Data Policy appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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17 июля, 14:10

VICTORY GIRLS: #Apollo11: The People Who Built Our Way To The Moon….

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VICTORY GIRLS: #Apollo11: The People Who Built Our Way To The Moon.

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17 июля, 14:10

ANOTHER DEMOCRAT TERRORIST SUPPORTER: Shaun King: The Antifa terrorist who was killed while attacki…

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ANOTHER DEMOCRAT TERRORIST SUPPORTER: Shaun King: The Antifa terrorist who was killed while attacking an ICE detention facility is a martyr.

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17 июля, 14:05

KRUISER: Awkward: BofA Sponsors Bank-Hating Bernie’s Interview with WaPo. The video is priceless….

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KRUISER: Awkward: BofA Sponsors Bank-Hating Bernie’s Interview with WaPo. The video is priceless.

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17 июля, 14:02

IT WAS ALWAYS ONLY AN EXCUSE TO FOOL THE — APPARENTLY QUITE GULLIBLE — FISA COURT: FBI’s spreadsh…

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IT WAS ALWAYS ONLY AN EXCUSE TO FOOL THE — APPARENTLY QUITE GULLIBLE — FISA COURT: FBI’s spreadsheet puts a stake through the heart of Steele’s dossier.

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17 июля, 14:00

DIRTY TRICKS: Trump 2020 Campaign To Simply Air Unedited Footage Of Democrats Talking….

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DIRTY TRICKS: Trump 2020 Campaign To Simply Air Unedited Footage Of Democrats Talking.

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17 июля, 14:00

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey

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From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 12, 2019. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Fourth of July holiday.... The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 87 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 21 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago....“Mortgage rates increased across the board, with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rising to its highest level in a month to 4.12 percent, which is still below this year’s average of 4.45 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Coming out of the July 4th holiday, applications were lower overall, with purchase activity slipping almost 4 percent. Refinance applications increased, with activity reaching its highest level in a month, driven mainly by FHA refinance applications. Historically, government refinance activity lags slightly in response to rate changes.”Added Kan, “Buyer interest at the start of the second half of the year continues to outpace year ago levels, with activity last week up 7 percent.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) increased to 4.12 percent from 4.04 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.emphasis addedClick on graph for larger image.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.Mortgage rates have declined from close to 5% late last year to around 4% now. Just about anyone who bought or refinanced over the last year or so can refinance now.   But it would take another significant decline in rates for a further large increase in refinance activity. The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase indexAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is up 7% year-over-year.

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17 июля, 13:46

CalPERS’ Long-Term Care Policy Train Wreck – Is Bankruptcy the End Game?

CalPERS' long-term care policy mess is even worse than industry norms, which is saying quite a lot.