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23 марта, 11:24

Brexit and Airlines

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About a week before the UK government triggers Article 50, and the stories are just rolling out about taking control how difficult untangling the UK from the EU is going to be, how much business is going to head across … Continue reading →

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21 марта, 14:31

Brexit and Banks

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With Prime Minister May due to trigger Article 50 eight days from now, shit’s about to get real the clock is about to start ticking, not least for the huge financial center in London. Nothing in the present UK government … Continue reading →

07 марта, 16:58

The Populist Papers: 29 Years of Populism

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Thinking about Brexit, the Donald, Austria having a presidential election replay, and other things, it struck me that in a sense I’ve lived through a Populist Era, a parallel history to the official narrative of ever-closer European union and what … Continue reading →

22 февраля, 18:03

Made it through another month

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Now that Trump has outlasted William Henry Harrison as president of the United States, perhaps it’s time to publish here something I wrote elsewhere just a few days after the American election. Germany’s next. If there is any major leader … Continue reading →

20 января, 15:24

Well then.

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Looking back at posts from January 2009, I see a mix of hope and serious concern. Country after country was following the US into what has since become known as the Great Recession. It is reckoned by some as the … Continue reading →

30 ноября 2016, 11:14

4200

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Thirteen years, and now 4200 posts. Judging from the level of activity, Brexit broke the blog. Now with the election of Trump, we’ll get to see a lot of other stuff broken. When I first started writing here, I was … Continue reading →

31 июля 2016, 21:46

The Eurozone bailouts: learning more

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The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) for the IMF released its evaluation of the Eurozone bailouts last week. Unfortunately, the excellent report was released on the Thursday of what was for Bureaucristan the last working week before September, and was released … Continue reading →

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21 июля 2016, 20:35

Headline chasing

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IMF note to the G20 meeting in Shanghai in February – The global recovery has weakened further amid increasing financial turbulence and falling asset prices. Activity softened towards the end of 2015 and the valuation of risky assets has dropped sharply, … Continue reading →

05 июля 2016, 18:33

Ukip’s sinister double bill and failed political leadership

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Until early this year it seemed unlikely that an extreme idea lingering for two decades on the political fringe could turn into a mainstream choice preferred by majority of British voters as happened on June 23. Ukip’s leader Nigel Farage … Continue reading →

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23 июня 2016, 01:12

How many people care about immigration?

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I wrote this for Politico Europe, but they won’t have it, perhaps because it’s not OMG BREXIT enough. To update it, let’s note that Ipsos MORI reckons only 20% care about immigration and more people think they, personally, have benefited … Continue reading →

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25 мая 2016, 16:46

A simple solution for #Brexit-related uncertainty

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Prominent Brexiter Andrew Lilico, I see, argues that we could avoid the uncertainty created by triggering the Article 50 process by not doing so: The Treasury says an instant triggering of Article 50 post-referendum would be a driver of uncertainty. … Continue reading →

25 мая 2016, 16:45

#Brexit, trade, and the J-curve

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A couple of thoughts on the economic consequences of #Brexit. HM Treasury, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and others have published their efforts to forecast the short- to medium-term impacts of leaving the EU, and it’s fair to say none … Continue reading →