European Opinion
20 января 2017, 15:24

Well then.

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Looking back at posts from January 2009, I see a mix of hope and serious concern. Country after country was following the US into what has since become known as the Great Recession. It is reckoned by some as the … Continue reading →

30 ноября 2016, 11:14


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Thirteen years, and now 4200 posts. Judging from the level of activity, Brexit broke the blog. Now with the election of Trump, we’ll get to see a lot of other stuff broken. When I first started writing here, I was … Continue reading →

31 июля 2016, 21:46

The Eurozone bailouts: learning more

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The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) for the IMF released its evaluation of the Eurozone bailouts last week. Unfortunately, the excellent report was released on the Thursday of what was for Bureaucristan the last working week before September, and was released … Continue reading →

Выбор редакции
21 июля 2016, 20:35

Headline chasing

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IMF note to the G20 meeting in Shanghai in February — The global recovery has weakened further amid increasing financial turbulence and falling asset prices. Activity softened towards the end of 2015 and the valuation of risky assets has dropped sharply, … Continue reading →

05 июля 2016, 18:33

Ukip’s sinister double bill and failed political leadership

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Until early this year it seemed unlikely that an extreme idea lingering for two decades on the political fringe could turn into a mainstream choice preferred by majority of British voters as happened on June 23. Ukip’s leader Nigel Farage … Continue reading →

Выбор редакции
23 июня 2016, 01:12

How many people care about immigration?

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I wrote this for Politico Europe, but they won’t have it, perhaps because it’s not OMG BREXIT enough. To update it, let’s note that Ipsos MORI reckons only 20% care about immigration and more people think they, personally, have benefited … Continue reading →

Выбор редакции
25 мая 2016, 16:46

A simple solution for #Brexit-related uncertainty

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Prominent Brexiter Andrew Lilico, I see, argues that we could avoid the uncertainty created by triggering the Article 50 process by not doing so: The Treasury says an instant triggering of Article 50 post-referendum would be a driver of uncertainty. … Continue reading →

25 мая 2016, 16:45

#Brexit, trade, and the J-curve

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A couple of thoughts on the economic consequences of #Brexit. HM Treasury, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and others have published their efforts to forecast the short- to medium-term impacts of leaving the EU, and it’s fair to say none … Continue reading →

27 февраля 2016, 23:38

Timeliness challenge

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The IMF Board considered the annual surveillance of the UK economy barely 2 weeks ago, and the associated report was published even more recently. And a couple of days after that, its main findings about fiscal policy — trumpeted by … Continue reading →

08 февраля 2016, 18:00

Ireland and Iceland: when cosiness kills

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The fate of the Irish and the Icelandic banks are intertwined in time: as the Irish government decided on a blanket guarantee for the Irish banks, the Icelandic government was trying, in vain, to save the Icelandic banks. In spite … Continue reading →

20 января 2016, 15:37

Language adjustment

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The IMF World Economic Outlook update is out. Despite all the China and financial markets talk, the movement in the forecast is more about the uselessness of BRICS as an economic concept: deeper recessions than foreseen even 6 months ago … Continue reading →

Выбор редакции
19 января 2016, 00:52

The wealth of the masses

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From the Davos-timed Oxfam analysis of global wealth distribution – In 2015 the net wealth of the 3.6 billion people living in the bottom 50 percent was $1.75 trillion. That means average wealth for those 3.6 billion people was US$486. … Continue reading →