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23 сентября, 05:47

Yale Students To Prof Who Denies Coaching Kavanaugh Clerks: You're Lying | HuffPost

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**Sara Boboltz and Emily Peck**: _[Yale Students To Prof Who Denies Coaching Kavanaugh Clerks: You're Lying](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/yale-students-to-prof-who-denies-coaching-kavanaugh-clerks-youre-lying_us_5ba685dde4b069d5f9d369e6?ncid=APPLENEWS00001)_: "Yale Law School professor Amy Chua strongly denied that she told students that Brett Kavanaugh, now a nominee for the U.S. Supreme Court, liked his female law clerks to have a certain feminine appearance, in a statement emailed to the Yale Law community on Saturday... >...Yet a woman who recently graduated from Yale Law School and received advice from Chua on interviewing for a coveted clerkship position with Kavanaugh, who sits on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, disputed the professor’s statement. “She’s lying,” the woman told HuffPost. The professor specifically told her not to wear a suit when she met Kavanaugh, the woman said, requesting anonymity for fear of career reprisals.... >“I personally heard her state that it’s not an accident that all his clerks look like models,” a current Yale Law student told HuffPost on Saturday. “So I personally know that for her to say the allegations are 100 percent false is a lie, because at least that one is definitely true”... ---- #shouldread

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22 сентября, 19:44

Why Would Anybody Sane Ever, Ever Choose Brett Kavanaugh Over Amy Barrett?

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Why would anybody sane ever, ever choose [Brett Kavanaugh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Kavanaugh) over [Amy Barrett](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett) as the swing vote to eviscerate Roe versus Wade? People have advanced three reasons: 1. They just do not think girls are serious—other things being equal (or, indeed, not equal), choose the man. 2. Amy Barrett has faith and principals: they do not know what the key issues will be 20 years from now, and they are scared to appoint somebody who may turn out to be like Justices Kennedy and Souter, actually have principals and faith, and so go off the reservation. 3. Amy Barrett does not believe that the president is above the law—_princeps legibus solutus est_ is not one of her judicial principles. Things are definitely not equal. There are lots of reasons to fear Brett Kavanaugh does not have a judicial temperament in addition to the fact that he is now lying about sexual assault of a 15-year-old 35 years ago: **Stephanie Mencimer**: _[The Many Mysteries of Brett Kavanaugh’s Finances](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/09/the-many-mysteries-of-brett-kavanaughs-finances/)_: "Who made the down payment on his house? How did he come up with $92,000 in country club fees?... ---- #shouldread

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22 сентября, 18:08

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**Pedro Nicolaci da Costa**: _[Wage Growth Should Be Much Stronger by Now Given Low Jobless Rates](https://www.businessinsider.com/wage-growth-should-be-much-stronger-by-given-jobless-rates-2018-9)_: "There's a simple way to tell the US job market is not as strong as it appears.... 'The definition of full employment is low- and moderate-wage workers actually get raises," said Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute. 'We are not at full employment yet'... >...Who was it that said doing the same thing and expecting a different result was the definition of insanity? That seems to be the curious path of Federal Reserve policymakers who continue to argue they must keep pushing interest rates higher in earnest because the unemployment rate is so low that it risks generating runaway inflation as workers ask for big pay raises. There's just one missing ingredient: actual wage growth of any substance and duration. The unemployment rate is at 3.9% and average hourly earnings rose 2.9% last month, the strongest since the Great Recession. But that pace of income gains is still paltry compared to past recoveries when a much more robust 4% rate of growth was common. Wages are certainly rising all-too-slowly in relation to the low headline jobless rate, which masks negative...

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22 сентября, 18:02

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**Binyamin Applebaum**: _[Economics as a Professional Vocation](https://twitter.com/BCAppelbaum/status/935945785723801605)_: "I am not sure there is a defensible case for the discipline of macroeconomics if they can’t at least agree on the ground rules for evaluating tax policy... >...What does it mean to produce the signatures of 100 economists in favor of a given proposition when another 100 will sign their names to the opposite statement? How does Harvard, for example, justify granting tenure to people who purport to work in the same discipline and publicly condemn each other as charlatans? How are ordinary people, let alone members of Congress, supposed to figure out which tenured professors are the serious economists?... ---- #shouldread

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22 сентября, 18:01

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GDP has its place in our national public-sphere conversation because a new number is released roughly once a month—each quarter of the year has its own GDP number, and the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis releases "advance", "second", and "third" estimates for each quarter, and then there are benchmarking revisions. To attain an equal place in public-sphere consciousness, the distributional national accounts component would have to appear also once a month. And it is not clear to me how to do that: **Equitable Growth**: _[Measuring U.S. economic growth](https://equitablegrowth.org/measuring-u-s-economic-growth/)_: "The measurement of GDP has fostered a national fixation on 'growing the pie' that ignores how growth is distributed... >... That conventional wisdom has become antiquated.... Policymakers interested in combatting rising income inequality cannot evaluate the effectiveness of their policies without a consistent, high-quality measure of how economic growth is distributed. Existing statistics on inequality and the distribution of economic gains produced by the federal government do not account for all income, vastly underestimate the income of top earners, or are not given the level of attention received by other major economic statistical products. A distributional component could be added to the National Income and Product Accounts, at least in part......

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22 сентября, 18:00

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**Michael R. Strain**: _[The Economics and Emotions Behind Slow Wage Growth](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-09/slow-wage-growth-is-based-on-emotions-and-economics)_: "why does wage growth continue to be so tepid? As unemployment falls and the number of open jobs increases, businesses should have to increase pay in order to attract increasingly scarce available workers as well as retain the employees they have... >...To some extent, reality is conforming to this story. But many who look at the numbers aren’t satisfied. So let’s discuss some possible explanations. One theory has been that there is more “slack” in the labor market than the unemployment rate would lead you to believe, since people who leave the workforce altogether are not counted as unemployed in the official statistics. If the severity of the Great Recession drove people out of the labor force (rather than simply into the ranks of the unemployed looking for work) but who might readily rejoin, then the jobless rate could be very low at the same time that there is enough slack to restrain wage growth.... More than 5 million people are not in the labor force but report wanting a job. We also saw some evidence consistent with hidden slack in Friday’s labor market report. The unemployment rate increased...

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22 сентября, 07:46

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**Josh Marshall**: _[Whelan Nutbar Twitter Thread Preserved for Posterity](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/whelan-nutbar-twitter-thread-preserved-for-posterity)_: "We still have more questions than answers about Ed Whelan’s bizarre twitter thread that accused another Kavanaugh classmate of attacking Prof. Blasey Ford and roiled the already embattled nomination. So for those who didn’t see or would like to read through it again for clues to what happened, here’s the whole thing: ---- #shouldread #orangehairedbaboons

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22 сентября, 00:07

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**Jerome H. Powell**: _[Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20180824a.htm)_: "Analysts talk about... u (pronounced "u star") is the natural rate of unemployment, r ("r star") is the neutral real rate of interest, and π ("pi star") is the inflation objective. According to the conventional thinking, policymakers should navigate by these stars... >...In that sense, they are very much akin to celestial stars.... Navigating by the stars can sound straightforward. Guiding policy by the stars in practice, however, has been quite challenging of late because our best assessments of the location of the stars have been changing significantly... ---- #shouldread

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21 сентября, 23:12

A Baker's Dozen of Fairly-Recent Links...

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1. **Peter Norvig**: _[A Concrete Introduction to Probability (using Python)](http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/url/norvig.com/ipython/Probability.ipynb)_ 2. **James Gorman**: _[Parrots Think They’re So Smart. Now They’re Bartering Tokens for Food](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/11/science/what-makes-parrots-so-smart.html)_ 3. **Paul Moses**: _[Tackling the Wrong Problem](https://www.commonwealmagazine.org/tackling-wrong-problem)_: "Pope Benedict XVI’s Removal of Bishop William Morris... 4. _[Weekend Reading: John Maynard Keynes on the "Euthanasia of the Rentier"](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/03/weekend-reading-john-maynard-keynes-on-the-euthanasia-of-the-rentier.html)_ 5. **Rachel Feintzig**: _[Tax Change Helps Executives Afford Pricier Planes](https://www.wsj.com/articles/tax-change-helps-executives-afford-pricier-planes-1536763868)_: "The recent changes to the tax code are giving business executives a new perk: the opportunity to deduct the entirety of a corporate-jet purchase.... The price of a new or used airplane purchased by a company can be a 100% write-off against its earnings. That is a major change... 6. **Robert Farley**: _[The Queen Elizabeth Class Battleships Were Among the Best Ever Built. What If They Never Happened?](https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/queen-elizabeth-class-battleships-were-among-best-ever-built-what-if-they-never-happened)_ 7. **Erik Berglöf**: _[The Evolution of Globalization](https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-evolution-of-globalization-by-erik-berglof-2018-09)_: "Around the turn of the century, critics of trade and capital-market liberalization had good reason to worry that emerging and developing economies would fall further behind the developing world. But the opposite happened, and now the world must worry about the trajectory of advanced economies and the fraying of multilateral arrangements... 8. **Adair Turner**: _[Japan’s Successful Economic Model by Adair Turner](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/japan-successful-economic-model-by-adair-turner-2018-09)_: "Japan’s GDP growth...

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21 сентября, 21:24

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**Paul Krugman**: _[@paulkrugman](https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1043199669688512513)_: "The Kavanaugh mess has structural roots. Rs needed someone who was both ideologically reliable and at no risk of developing a conscience when it came to defending Trump against rule of law. So it had to be a bad person, which meant good odds of nasty stuff surfacing... ---- #shouldread

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21 сентября, 18:12

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Why are they sticking with Kavanaugh? Because the pool of "Federalist Society approved judges who also think the president is essentially unaccountable... is rather thin". There are two agendas here—that of the Federalist Society and that of the Orange-Haired Baboon. If not, the Republicans would not have wedged themselves into this position—they would have said: "OK. Amy Barrett". Anyone sane would have long ago decided that Amy Barrett is the right swing vote to repeal _Roe_: **Mike the Mad Biologist**: _[Several Thoughts On Kavanaugh](https://mikethemadbiologist.com/2018/09/19/several-thoughts-on-kavanaugh/)_: "There’s a misunderstanding about the letter of support by the ‘Kavanaugh 65.’ It was meant to defang the charge that he was a drunken pig.... They didn’t think attempted sexual assault allegations were coming, though they probably should have... >...This is yet another reason why you need diversity among your advisors: with a more diverse crew, some of them would have thought he’s an entitled asshole. Merrick Garland wasn’t accused of sexual assault. Neither was Neil Gorsuch–and I think he’s an _awful_ judge. But when you limit yourself to the subset of Federalist Society approved judges who also think the president is essentially unaccountable, the talent pool is rather thin... ---- #shouldread #moralresponsibility #orangehairedbaboons

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21 сентября, 18:05

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Very, very, very, very smart: **Brad Setser**: _[Three Sudden Stops and a Surge](https://www.cfr.org/blog/three-sudden-stops-and-surge)_: "Fundamentally, the crisis was a crisis of confidence in the health of the balance sheets of the great financial houses of the United States and Europe.... The line between banks and shadow banks was thin, it turned out... >...Think of it this way: The marginal borrower who needed financing was a U.S. household taking out a home equity line of credit. And the global creditor willing to buy dollar assets and finance the U.S. external deficit was an Asian (or Gulf) central bank resisting the appreciation of their own currency. But central banks, by and large, didn’t want to take the risk of lending to U.S. households.... The huge gross flows—the big bank inflows and outflows in others, the large corporate bond purchases—in the run up to the U.S. crisis were the visible traces that these complex chains of financial intermediation left in the balance of payments data. There was a signal there. And that signal was, by and large, missed. The conventional wisdom at the time was that these large flows indicated that a global financial system was dispersing the risk associated with funding the U.S....