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17 июля, 18:37

The Dire Poverty of the Globe in 1870: An Outtake from "Slouching Towards Utopia?: An Economic History of the Long 20th Century"

I see no way to justify including this in the ms. But should any of it go in? Or does it just belong in some other intellectual project? ---- ##The Dire Absolute Poverty of the Globe in 1870## ###J. Bradford DeLong### ###U.C. Berkeley, NBER, and WCEG### 7,137 words John Ball (1381): >>When Adam delved and Eve span,/ Who was then the gentleman? >From the beginning all men by nature were created alike, and our bondage or servitude came in by the unjust oppression of naughty men. For if God would have had any bondmen from the beginning, he would have appointed who should be bond, and who free. >And therefore I exhort you to consider that now the time is come, appointed to us by God, in which ye may (if ye will) cast off the yoke of bondage, and recover liberty… You need to understand three things to grasp the state of the world economy in 1870: that the drive to make love is one of the very strongest of all human drives, that living standards were what we would regard as very low for the bulk of humanity in the long trek between the invention of agriculture in...

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17 июля, 18:09

How Far Will Byron York Go to Defend Donald Trump?

Byron York is useful to Donald Trump for always giving the un- but semi-plausible defense of Trump on which those who want to see or profit from Trump's attempt to remake America into a neo-fascist country succeed around which they can coordinate their day-to-day attempts to strengthen Trump. Byron York will be useful to future historians as a marker of where those who wanted to see Trump succeed in his projects were thinking they could draw the line without losing all credibility. The current line, as of July 17, 2018, is that the investigation is a witch hunt because it has not yet proven that Trump personally colluded with Putin's attempts to disrupt the election: **Byron York**: _[Why Trump doesn't admit Russian election interference](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/byron-york-why-trump-doesnt-admit-russian-election-interference)_: "There have always been two parts to the Trump-Russia probe: the what-Russia-did part... and the get-Trump part... >Trump's problem is that he has always refused, or been unable, to separate the two.... The president clearly believes if he gives an inch on the what-Russia-did part—if he concedes that Russia made an effort to disrupt the election—his adversaries, who want to discredit his election, undermine him, and force him from office, will take a mile on the...

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17 июля, 17:08

History and Moral Philosophy: Some Fairly-Recent Should-Reads

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* (i) Free trade, (ii) the industrial research lab, (iii) the gold standard, and (iv) high finance to lobby for peace and channel money to régimes that played by the rules of the game—those were the key stabilizing institutions of Gold Standardism. (i) Labor unions, (ii) Keynesian demand management, (iii) social insurance, and (iv) high-throughput oligopolistic assembly-line manufacturing—those were the key stabilizing institutions of Fordism. So what are the next key stabilizing institutions? There is no guarantee that there will be any. There was, after all, a 33-year gap between the breakdown of Gold Standardism in 1913 and the first clear signs of the successful construction of Fordism in 1946. If we see 2000 as the last gasp of successful Fordism... then we may have a long slog. For who in 1913 would have predicted the future and bet that labor unions, Keynesian demand management, social insurance, and high-throughput oligopolistic assembly-line manufacturing were the key institutions to be building?: **Nicolas Colin**: [Doom, or Europe’s Polanyi Moment?](http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/must-read-nicolas-colin/): Polanyi’s... _The Great Transformation_... is really about the social and economic institutions that are necessary to support the market system and to make economic development more sustainable and inclusive... * The big problem China...

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17 июля, 17:04

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The extremely sharp Tim Duy provides us with not a recession signal but rather with a signal that current Fed policy is going to provide us with a recession signal: **Tim Duy**: _[Fed Pushing Ahead Toward Inversion](https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2018/07/16/fed-pushing-ahead-toward-inversion/)_: "I fully expect the Fed will continue hiking rates if the yield curve inverts unless there is a clear financial meltdown at that time... >...Powell & Co. will find it impossible to resist the siren song of the data near the peak of a business cycle. When the hikes continue after the yield curve inverts is when I go on recession watch. But again, timing is everything. Because the inverted yield curve is a long leading indicator, equities easily might continue to rise in the period after the inversion but before the recession. Hence, the inversion would likely be a premature “sell equities” signal. >Bottom Line: The U.S. economy retains substantial momentum, easily sufficient for Powell & Co. to stick with their gradual plan of gradual rate hikes. That plan has to date flattened the yield curve just like in every tightening cycle as long rates have held stuck near three percent despite every reason to think they will move higher. I don’t...

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17 июля, 16:29

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A Britain led by Theresa May or Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbin will not "rediscover its own way... the Britih re most resilient, most inventive, and happiest when they feel in control of their own future". That is simply wrong. And if it were right, May and Johnson and Corbin are not Churchill or Lloyd-George or even Salisbury: **Robert Skidelsky**: _[The British History of Brexit](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/british-history-of-brexit-by-robert-skidelsky-2018-07)_: "I am unpersuaded by the Remain argument that leaving the EU would be economically catastrophic for Britain... >...The loss of settled EU arrangements would be balanced by the chance for Britain to rediscover its own way, not least in fiscal and industrial policy. Experience suggests that the British are most resilient, most inventive, and happiest when they feel in control of their own future. They are not ready to give up their independence. My main worry is the loss of the chance for Britain to help shape the political future of Europe. The organization Britain will be leaving is far from marching confidently ahead to political union. It is riven with conflict... ---- #shouldread

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17 июля, 16:10

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How to use and misuse the argument _ad hominid_: **Belle Waring** (2003): _[Just Not So Stories](http://examinedlife.typepad.com/johnbelle/2003/07/just_not_so_sto.html)_: "Like everyone else, I'm tired of hearing about how Darwinian pressures cause men to think that young women with a fetching hip-to-waist ratio... >...good teeth, shiny hair, nice skin, high, bouncy breasts et al. are hot because of their obvious fertility. (I'm even more tired of Darwinian justifications for hot young women marrying rich elderly men, but since a moment's thought as to the (im)possibility of accumulating capital on the veldt suffices to dispose of this line, I'll let it go.) You may see an idiotic and noxious synthesis of all these trends here (I honestly can't tell what institution is backing this, but it's typical).... I'll play fair.... Presence of a healthy child constitutes abundant evidence that the woman is fertile, has given birth to normal young without dying, can breastfeed successfully, and exercises optimal care of any children she has. If the baby is too young, she is likely not ovulating yet. So, the sexiest woman in the world ought to be the stretch-marked hottie above with a healthy, bright-eyed little person toddling around after her. And yet, I submit that this...

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17 июля, 06:02

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Huh? The love letters of Otto von Bismarck? Juxtaposing von Bismarck and von Moltke to Ferdinand Lassalle cheek-by-jowl in one volume? What _were_ they thinking?: _[The German Classics: Masterpieces of German Literature Translated Into English](https://books.google.com/books?id=Ei4TAAAAYAAJ)_, Volume 10

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17 июля, 05:17

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**Karl Marx** (1867): _[The Historical Tendency of Capitalist Accumulation](https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1867-c1/ch32.htm)_: "The private property of the labourer in his means of production is the foundation of petty industry, whether agricultural, manufacturing, or both... >...Petty industry, again, is an essential condition for the development of social production and of the free individuality of the labourer himself. Of course, this petty mode of production exists also under slavery, serfdom, and other states of dependence. But it flourishes, it lets loose its whole energy, it attains its adequate classical form, only where the labourer is the private owner of his own means of labour set in action by himself: the peasant of the land which he cultivates, the artisan of the tool which he handles as a virtuoso. >This mode of production presupposes parcelling of the soil and scattering of the other means of production. As it excludes the concentration of these means of production, so also it excludes cooperation, division of labour within each separate process of production, the control over, and the productive application of the forces of Nature by society, and the free development of the social productive powers. It is compatible only with a system of production, and a society, moving...

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17 июля, 03:58

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**Erik Loomis**: _[The Amazing Early Progress of #AbolishICE](http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2018/07/amazing-early-progress-abolishice)_: "This movement was basically started by Sean McElwee on Twitter in the early part of the year... >...I and others chipped in where we could, highlighting American ethnic cleansing on Twitter and in our writing. And by July, we have 43% of Democrats supporting the abolition of an evil agency of American ethnic cleansing. That’s amazing! Despite the 24-hour news cycle, social movements aren’t built overnight. Tiger Beat on the Potomac has no way to compute this because social movements don’t fit its model. So it seems unpopular. But it’s not. It is just being introduced to voters and a full plurality of Democrats want to eliminate this evil agency. Really, we should be very proud of this and continue to move forward demanding its complete abolition and a totally different immigration system as part of the 2020 Democratic platform. Anyone who wants to win the Democratic nomination needs to embrace this. Kirsten Gillibrand, being better at her job than her competitors, understands this and has gotten ahead of them all... ---- #shouldread

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17 июля, 03:49

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How much of the forthcoming announcement of an upward bump in GDP growth in the second quarter is due to people battening down the hatches for Trump's trade war, and will be reversed over the course of the next year? That is what we are all trying to estimate right now: **Paul Krugman**: _[Trump, Tariffs, Tofu and Tax Cuts](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/09/opinion/trump-tariffs-tofu.html)_: "More than half of America’s soybean exports typically go to China, but Chinese tariffs will shift much of that demand to Brazil, and countries that normally get their soybeans from Brazil have raced to replace them with U.S. beans. The perverse result is that the prospect of tariffs has temporarily led to a remarkably large surge in U.S. exports... >...which independent estimates suggest will add around 0.6 percentage points to the U.S. economy’s growth rate in the second quarter. Unfortunately, we’ll give all that growth back and more in the months ahead. Thanks to the looming trade war, U.S. soybean prices have plummeted, and the farmers of Iowa are facing a rude awakening. Why am I telling you this story? Partly as a reminder of the unintended consequences of Donald Trump’s trade war, which is going to hurt a lot of...

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17 июля, 03:44

Monday Smackdown: Epistemic Intellectual Bankruptcy Edition: Paul Krugman/Matt O'Brien/Niall Ferguson

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I think Paul Krugman puts his finger on the decline of Niall Ferguson here: **Paul Krugman**: _["What we have here](https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1006557121499017216) is an example of a phenomenon I've seen a number of times: the doom loop of hackery... >...It starts when a guy who actually does have something to offer, like an academic reputation based on real work, decides to expand his horizons by being cleverly contrarian: >>**Matt O'Brien**: This is possibly the dumbest thing Niall Ferguson has ever written: he thinks Donald Trump might be the new Caesar Augustus, and that blowing up the liberal international order is worth it to keep China’s economy from growing so much... >>>**Niall Ferguson**: Yes, there is much to be said in principle for an international order based on explicit rules; and yes, those rules should favor free trade over protectionism. But if in practice your liberal international order has the consequence that China overtakes you, first economically and then strategically, there is probably something wrong with it.... The Trump presidency is that it holds out probably the last opportunity the United States has to stop or at least slow China’s ascendancy.... Trump’s approach to the problem, which is to assert American power in...

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17 июля, 03:41

Hoisted/Smackdown: Yes, Noam Chomsky Is a Liar. Why Do You Ask?

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**Hoisted/Smackdown**: [On the NATO Bombing of Yugoslavia...](http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2006/05/on_the_nato_bom.html): May 31, 2006: Having made the mistake of having joked about Noam Chomsky and so provoked a Chomskyite troll eruption that was painful to clean out, I believe that I have to make my position clear: Noam Chomsky is a liar. For example, Noam Chomsky says: >On the NATO Bombing of Yugoslavia, Noam Chomsky interviewed by Danilo Mandic: Director of Communications [for Clinton Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott], John Norris.... [T]ake a look on John Norris's book and what he says is that the real purpose of the war had nothing to do with concern for Kosovar Albanians. It was because Serbia was not carrying out the required social and economic reforms, meaning it was the last corner of Europe which had not subordinated itself to the US-run neoliberal programs, so therefore it had to be eliminated. That's from the highest level... John Norris simply does not say what Chomsky says Norris says. "Reform[ing] their economies, mitigat[ing] ethnic tensions, and broaden[ing] civil society" is simply not the same thing as "subordinat[ing] itself to the US-run neoliberal programs". NATO moved against Milosevic because he had proceeded "from mass murder to mass murder", not...