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30 марта, 18:21

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**Daniella Thompson**: _Newly-Reshingled c. 1898 High-Peak-Gable House in the Elmwood District_ : 'Photo: Anthony Bruce, 2020: ---- #noted #2020-03-30

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30 марта, 03:16

Lecture Notes: The Development of Underdevelopment and W. Arthur Lewis

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3086 words The large populations and low levels of material wealth and agricultural productivity in China and India checked the growth of wages. Workers could be cheaply imported and employed at wages not that far above the physical subsistence level. Low wage costs meant that commodities produced in countries open to Asian immigration were relatively cheap. And competition from the Malaysian rubber plantations checked growth and even pushed down wages of the Brazilian rubber tappers as well. The late nineteenth century saw living standards and wage rates become and remain relatively low (although higher than in China and India) throughout the regions that were to come to be called the third world. And as wages in economies that were to become the global periphery were checked, the prospects for having a rich-enough middle class to provide demand for a strong domestic industrial sector ebbed rapidly. As a result, the chain of causation went thus: * The openness of some places where tropical goods could be produced to migration from China and India pushed down their prices in world markets. * Low prices in the world markets meant low wages everywhere tropical goods were produced. * Low wages meant no prosperous...

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29 марта, 18:00

Cases and Deaths from Coronavirus Doubling Every Three Days Is Very Bad News Indeed

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I confess I am positively unmanned by the every-three-days doubling of _reported_ cases and deaths here in the United States. I had thought that we would see true cases doubling every seven days. And back when _reported_ cases started doubling every three days, I was encouraged, because I thought it meant that we were catching up on testing, and so getting closer to detecting the bulk of the symptomatic cases. But now it looks like that was wrong: _reported_ cases were doubling every three days because _true_ cases were doubling every three days—that is what deaths tell us was happening to _true_ cases up until three weeks ago. The lack of case curve-bending makes me think that testing is not improving. It makes me think that _reported_ cases are doubling every three days because _true_ cases are doubling every three days. That means that the Trump administration has only 40% as much time to get its ass in gear as I thought it did. And that means the chances it will are very very low indeed: I must confess it had never occurred to me back when China shut down Wuhan that we would simply not test everyone who presented...

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29 марта, 16:26

Daily Notes: 2020-03-29

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There were 2027 reported deaths in the U.S. from the novel coronavirus as of late on Mar 28—if our reporting systems have not yet broken down. With a 1% death rate, and with 3 weeks between infection and death, that means that as of Mar 7 there were 202700 coronavirus cases in the United States. Up through Mar 28 deaths have been doubling every three days, suggesting that before Mar 7 true cases were also doubling every three days: 1. If that that pace has continued since, by Mar 31 we will have had 8 further doublings: 52 million cases, 1/6 of the population. 2. If the curve bent to doubling every four days, by Mar 31 we will have had 6 further doublings: 13 million cases, 1/25 of the population, with an additional 30 million cases expected by April 7 3. If the curve bent to doubling every six days, by Mar 31 we will have had 4 further doublings: 3.2 million cases, 1/100 of the population, with an additional 3.8 million cases expected by April 7 4. If the curve bent to doubling every eight days, by Mar 31 we will have had 3 further doublings: 1.6 million...

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29 марта, 07:21

Daily Notes: 2020-03-28

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Charles Pardee is supposed to have compared making monetary policy by the Federal Reserve Board by driving at high speed a car with its windshield painted black, peering into the rear view mirror for your only information about the road ahead. Because we have no testing, only deaths, that is our situation now. We know that three weeks ago the natural log of cases was increasing by two every week. And we hope that the curve has been powerfully bent since then... **NOTES: U.S. Coronavirus Deaths** : * BEND THE CURVE, PEOPLE!!!! * 2227 deaths as of 2020-03-28 * 2.001 is the log growth factor over the past week * 900,000 is what you get if you project that out over the next three weeks, to April 18: * The people who will die on or before Apr 18 will have caught the coronavirus by... now. They are baked in the cake: Unless the curve has already bent, they are toast. * 49,000,000 is what you get if you project that out over the next three weeks, to May 2: * The people who will die on or before May 2 will have caught the coronavirus by... Easter. * That...

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29 марта, 05:02

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**Nick Rowe**: _Relative Supply Shocks, Unobtainium, Walras' Law, and the Coronavirus_ : 'A temporary 100% output cut in 50% of the sectors (what the Coronavirus does) is very different from a 50% output cut in 100% of the sectors (what our intuitions might expect from supply shocks in aggregate macro models).... Here's the intuition.... Unobtainium is a very desirable good.... Someone actually invents a way to produce unobtainium. They can't produce it just yet, but everyone knows they will produce it, and sell it at an affordable price, a few months from now. What happens when they hear the news? Everybody... wants to save up to half their income, so they can spend it on unobtainium in a couple of months time.... That is pretty much what's happening with the Coronavirus, in the real world. Half the goods we used to buy are temporarily unobtainium. But we expect to buy them in a couple of months.... High intertemporal substitution can beat low cross-section substitution.... That's why we need temporarily looser monetary and fiscal policy. (Plus, we also need fiscal policy to redistribute between people differentially affected by the Coronavirus, but that's another story.) Think that's (basically) right... ---- #noted #2020-03-28

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29 марта, 03:25

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_The Weight Featuring Robbie Robertson and Ringo Starr_ : ---- #fortheweekend #music 32020-03-28

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28 марта, 17:00

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**Lizzie Burden**: _Trump’s Crusade to Reopen the Economy ‘May See Extra 5M Deaths’ and a Second Fiscal Bailout_ : 'Economists know the shutdown can’t last forever. As Padhraic Garvey, head of research Americas at ING, said: “Individuals have been told to literally go home because there’s no work for them. They have families to support and at a certain point, the pendulum has to swing back to supporting them.” Nonetheless, there is consensus among economists that there is no trade-off between health and economics—yet. Jonathan Portes... “Immediately we... should be trying to control the health consequences as much as possible. After that, the aim is to make sure that fall in GDP doesn’t have long-term economic damage.... In six months’ time you may ask whether to keep some restrictions at some economic cost because a vaccine might come along, or say we should live with it as long as it’s contained and controlled and just deal with localised outbreaks and accept the negative health consequences. That’d be a reasonable public health debate to have in six months—but not now”... >...Economists are also unanimously deferential to the scientists. “You’re going to sacrifice people on the altar of what?” Anat Admati, professor...

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28 марта, 16:54

Daily Notes: 2020-03-27

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**NOTES: U.S. Coronavirus Deaths** : * BEND THE CURVE, PEOPLE!!!! * 1696 deaths as of 2020-03-27 * 1.895 is the log growth factor over the past week * 500,000 is what you get if you project that out over the next three weeks, to April 17: * The people who will die on or before Apr 17 will have caught the coronavirus by... now. They are baked in the cake: Unless the curve has already bent, they are toast. * 22,000,000 is what you get if you project that out over the next three weeks, to May 1: * The people who will die on or before May 1 will have caught the coronavirus by... Easter. * That number is too large: that tells us that the epidemic is running its course between now and Easter—unless the curve is bent, or has already been bent. * Our last time to act to stop spread is... now **NOTES: State-by-State Coronavirus** : * Currently 4791 cases and 106 deaths in California: that's 121 _reported_ cases per million—ranking 31st among states in the U.S... * If the death rate is 1%, then that means 265 _true_ CA cases per million on Mar 6......

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28 марта, 06:40

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**Comment of the Day**: _Joe Barsugli_ : 'I agree with Jubilee, but Hunker Down has some problems. While I agree with the broad outline, we simply don't know how much hunkering down is needed to "reach a level that reduces the caseload to what the medical system can currently handle, but should not be pushed far beyond that point." I'm not sure you can fine-tune it. European experience seems to indicate that half-measures are much less than half-effective. Better to hit it hard with all you've got up front and hope you start to see results in 10-12 days. If the current measures prove adequate, then they have to be run for several cycles. China was extreme in its measures and beat the virus back in 6+ weeks. Lightening up too much too soon would lead to a second wave before we are ready to handle it... >...While the immediate goal is to keep the ICUs from being overwhelmed, the goal over the next month should also be to limit the percentage of the population that gets it in the first place. As we go from one in a thousand cases to one in a hundred to one in ten,...

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28 марта, 06:38

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**Comment of the Day**: _Rad Geek_ : 'Rad Geek said in reply to Ebenezer Scrooge: "A really expert journo collects an awful lot of signal with very little added noise, even if the originals are mentally accessible and noise-free .... a general-purpose journo in a specialized beat is trouble, even if the journo is smart and fair. ... A good lawyer or journo can manipulate symbolic knowledge far better than those who have the tacit knowledge..." I don't think we disagree about the features that make a really expert journalist very valuable on a well-defined beat. Sure: and under ordinary conditions in an informational ecosystem, that's sometimes a pretty good reason to read newspaper reports more than you read abstracts, etc. But what I'm concerned about is what happens in extraordinary conditions in the informational ecosystem, when—for example—the sheer volume, rapid-fire turn-around times, and tremendously wide scope of issues involved mean that a lot more "general-purpose" journos are suddenly put onto specialized beats, or onto writing generalist stories that really essentially involve complicated issues from a specialized beat. (Call that the demand-side worry.)... >...And, also, even expert journos on a specialized beat do rely on a lot of the institutional...

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28 марта, 06:36

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**Comment of the Day**: _'Joe Barsugli _ : 'At this point cases are not the best metric. Hospitalizations are goo now, until (and if) that system gets saturated. Then deaths... ---- #commentoftheday #2020-03-27