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20 апреля, 07:02

The “Let’s Be Agnostic About Race Science” Clowns Are In My Twitter Timeline Again: Delong Morning Coffee Podcast

Do your arithmetic, Sheeple! 1500 generations since radiation from the horn of Africa is really very little indeed... The “Let’s Be Agnostic About Race Science” Clowns Are In My Twitter Timeline Again ---- Thx to [Wavelength](https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/wavelength-for-micro-blog/id1365158696?ls=1&mt=8) and the very interesting [micro.blog](http://micro.blog) Text:

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20 апреля, 04:34

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**Project Jupyter**: [JupyterLab is Ready for Users](https://blog.jupyter.org/jupyterlab-is-ready-for-users-5a6f039b8906): "We are proud to announce the beta release series of JupyterLab, the next-generation web-based interface for Project Jupyter. tl;dr: JupyterLab is ready for daily use (installation, documentation, try it with Binder)..." #webtech #acrossthewidemissouri

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19 апреля, 21:21

Credulous Business-Friendly Reporters Willing to Publish Cries of "Labor Shortage" Without Evidence

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Weird. Credulous business-friendly reporters willing to publish cries of "labor shortage" without any evidence of rising wages, or even any inquiry into how a "labor shortage" is to be defined. This seems to—rightly—annoy FRBM head Feel Kashkari: **Neel Kashkari**: ["The extreme emotions around the labor market](https://twitter.com/neelkashkari/status/986224215090180102): 'historic, severe worker shortages'. Sounds like a real crisis. Is it?... >...By several measures, wage growth remains muted (around 2.7%)-much lower than historical episodes with "extreme worker shortages." Usually the price is the best indicator between supply and demand. Price growth for labor is low. Where's the "extreme shortage?" Interestingly, the price of oil has doubled over the past few years from around $30 to $60. I haven't heard anyone declare oil "shortage." Why not? Should we tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? No because it's the price responding to supply and demand.... Far fewer teens are choosing to be in the labor force today than 20 years ago. How many might choose to enter with higher wages? Our economists @MinneapolisFed always remind me about "sticky prices" - firms are reluctant to lower prices and wages in recessions. These hyperbolic headlines remind me the reluctance to adjust prices is in both directions. There's something very...

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19 апреля, 21:06

TICKLER: Things

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email to thing: [email protected]

19 апреля, 15:29

Out of the Frying Pan Into the Fire: Government as the Problem in the 1970s and 1980s

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The most interesting thing in retrospect is how insistent Marty is here that "BAD BIG GOVERNMENT" arrived suddenly and discontinuously in 1967—that the U.S. economy was fine up until then, but that afterwards things fell off a cliff with "government policies... deserv[ing] substantial blame for the adverse experience[s] of the past decade". Plus an awful lot of cherry-picking—like assessing corporate America based on the ten large firms whose stock prices plunged the most. And, of course, it was Mary's guy Ronnie whose policies wound up imposing much larger drags on societal wellbeing, from income maldistribution through draining the pool of productive savings to slow-walking equal opportunity: Out of the Frying Pan Into the Fire: Government as the Problem in the 1970s and 1980s: **Martin Feldstein** (1979): Introduction to The American Economy in Transition: "The post-[World] War [II] period began in an atmosphere of doubt and fear... >Many economists believed that the nation would slip back into the deep recession from which it had escaped only as the war began.... [But the first two decades of the postwar period were a time of unsurpassed economic prosperity, stability, and optimism. The contrast between the strength and achievement of the economy during those...

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19 апреля, 15:15

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**Alessandro Nicita, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Peri da Silva**: [A trade war will increase average tariffs by 32 percentage points(https://voxeu.org/article/trade-war-will-increase-average-tariffs-32-percentage-points): "A trade war will increase average tariffs by 32 percentage points... >...There are growing signs that a trade war is possible, and that the multilateral trading system may not be able to prevent it. This column asks what would happen with tariffs around the world if countries were to move from cooperative tariff setting within the WTO to non-cooperative tariff setting outside the WTO. It argues that that the resulting trade war with countries exploiting their market power would lead to a 32-percentage point increase in the tariff protection faced by the average world exporter... #shouldread

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19 апреля, 15:09

Isn't AdBlock a Bigger Piece of the Answer?

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I sometimes wonder whether this isn't getting much of the problem backward. If your personalized data collected is valuable for hacking your brain—getting you to buy or do things you afterwards wish you had not bought or done—then keeping someone, somewhere from collecting it is going to be difficult. Don't we also need defenses against seeing things from people who do not wish to inform and educate us? In short, isn't AdBlock a bigger piece of the answer?: **Zeynep Tufekci**: [We Already Know How to Protect Ourselves From Facebook](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/09/opinion/zuckerberg-testify-congress.html): "Personalized data collection would be allowed only through opt-in mechanisms that were clear, concise and transparent... >...The same would be true of any individualized targeting of users by companies or political campaigns—it should be clear, transparent and truly consensual.... People would have access, if requested, to all the data a company has collected on them—including all forms of computational inference (how the company uses your data to make guesses about your tastes and preferences, your personal and medical history, your political allegiances and so forth). Third, the use of any data collected would be limited to specifically enumerated purposes, for a designed period of time—and then would expire.... The aggregate use...

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19 апреля, 05:50

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Well, you write documentation for the you that is writing the code. You don't write documentation for the enormous idiot who will read and have to try to understand the code—i.e., the you two years into the future : **Rachael Meager**: Me trying to read code I wrote 2 years ago: >Folks this code is documented. The problem is you write documentation from a biased perspective... #ontwitter #shouldread #datascience

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19 апреля, 05:27

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"If getting China to pay what it owes for technology were the goal, you’d expect the U.S.... to make specific demands... and... build a coalition", a Tran-Pacific Partnership, so to speak: **Paul Krugman**: [The Art of the Flail](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/05/opinion/stock-markets-trade-trump.html): "Whenever investors suspect that Donald Trump will really go through with his threats of big tariff increases... stocks plunge... >...Incoherence rules: The administration lashes out, then tries to calm markets by saying that it might not carry through.... If getting better protection of patent rights and so on were the goal, America should be trying to build a coalition with other advanced countries to pressure the Chinese; instead, we’ve been alienating everyone in sight. Anyway, what seems to really bother Trump aren’t China’s genuine policy sins, but its trade surplus with the United States, which he has repeatedly said is $500 billion a year. (It’s actually less than $340 billion, but who’s counting?)... This is junk economics. Except at times of mass unemployment, trade deficits aren’t a subtraction from the economies that run them, nor are trade surpluses an addition to the economies on the other side of the imbalance..... >Now, Trump himself might be O.K. with large-scale deglobalization. But as we’ve...

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19 апреля, 01:03

The Tech Boom and the Fate of Democracy: Ars Technica Live: Definitely Not My Morning Coffee

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**Definitely Not My Morning Coffee**: **Ars Technica Live**: **Annalee Newitz and Brad DeLong**: [The Tech Boom and the Fate of Democracy](https://arstechnica.com/video/2018/04/this-isnt-the-first-time-a-tech-boom-has-interfered-with-democracy/) "Ars Technica Live #21... Filmed by Chris Schodt, produced by Justin Wolfson... **Annalee** writes: "Last week, we had lots of questions about the fate of democracy in a world where the Internet feeds us propaganda faster than we can fact check it... >...Luckily, Ars Technica Live featured guest Bradford DeLong, an economist who has spent his career studying tech and industrial revolutions, as well as the connections between economics and democracy. So we had a lot to discuss, and the result is the longest Ars Technica Live episode ever. >Brad worked in the US Treasury department during the Clinton administration, and he's a professor at UC Berkeley. So he's familiar with economic theory and history, as well as what happens when the rubber meets the road in trade agreements, regulations, and policy. >First, we talked about what a "tech boom" is and how they happen. Brad took us on a trip back through history and explained how even the invention of horseback riding created social ruptures and job loss. He also explained that tech and industrial revolutions in the...

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18 апреля, 20:51

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**Matthew Yglesias**: ["You have to understand the growing prominence of overt racism](https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/986374923970064384) in conservative politics as reflecting the collapse-without-replacement of the other parts of the program... >... The Trump economic agenda is not actually *different* from the Bush agenda even as it implicitly recognizes that Bushism is not tenable anymore. On cultural issues, the whole elaborate framework around blocking marriage equality while touting marriage as a poverty cure has evaporated but again replaced with nothing at all or what amount to irritable mental gestures about bakeries..." #shouldread #ontwitter #livefromtheorangehairedbabooncage

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18 апреля, 20:49

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**Justin Wolfers**: ["The first rule of tariffs](https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/986057227051192320) is don’t impose them. The second rule is don’t impose them on intermediate inputs and capital equipment used by American businesses, or you’ll just hurt their competitiveness. .... This tweet isn’t about the stink of scandal or the excitement of a gotcha, but rather mundane incompetence that’ll cost people their jobs..." #shouldread #ontwitter