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Global imbalances and the Chinese economy
18 ноября 2016, 16:23

China: Choosing More Debt, More Unemployment, Or Transfers

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I have often written in this blog and elsewhere about the three policy choices Beijing faces as it tries to manage through the adjustment process. My argument is that subject to two very plausible assumptions, every economic policy Beijing implements ultimately can be abstracted to one choice among three options. These two assumptions are: China […]

30 сентября 2016, 15:00

The impact in China and abroad of slowing growth

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This blog entry is largely something I wrote a year ago about the impact of a Chinese rebalancing on the global economy, rx and except for this first paragraph nothing has been changed. The entry on my blog that had been posted a couple of weeks earlier was an attempt to explain why it is […]

31 августа 2016, 15:59

Does it matter if China cleans up its banks?

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I’ve always thought that Shirley Yam of the South China Morning Post has a great nose for financial risk, and this shows in an article she published last week on mainland real estate. For anyone knowledgeable about the history of financial bubbles and crises, much of the following story will seem extremely familiar. The point […]

22 июня 2016, 12:58

Rebalancing, wealth transfers, and the growth of Chinese debt

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For the past ten years much of what I have written about debt in China was aimed mainly at trying to convince analysts and policymakers that the Chinese economy was structurally dependent on an unsustainable increase in debt in order to generate GDP growth rates above some level. This level might have been around 5-6% […]

02 июня 2016, 08:19

How Much Investment is Optimal

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A few years ago I wrote an essay on my blog that received a lot of attention and in which I tried to explain what the underlying assumption was for analysts who considered that China’s low level of investment relative to that of, troche say, help the US proved that China could not possibly have […]

08 мая 2016, 12:08

The titillating and terrifying collapse of the dollar. Again.

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Foreign perceptions about the Chinese economy are far more volatile than the economy itself, and are spread across a fantastic array of forecasts. On one extreme there are still many who hold the view that overwhelmingly dominated the consensus just four or five years ago, with a book by Martin Jacques, When China Rules the […]

23 марта 2016, 07:35

The re-emergence of the Jacksonians

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We’ve pelted Donald Trump with all the withering humor we can muster, malady and even though it is hard to imagine an easier target for elitist humor, pharm with his blustering narcissism, prescription his intellectual inconsistency, his questionable business record, and his truly stupid television show, above all of which rages his ferocious hair, it’s […]

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25 января 2016, 06:33

Will China’s new “supply-side” reforms help China?

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It wasn’t enough that we started 2016 with one of the worst weeks in the recent history of Chinese and global markets, but the panic continued into the following weeks and wreaked a great deal of damage to confidence. A lot of the reflexive China bulls are cautioning against misinterpreting the implications of the stock […]

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29 ноября 2015, 17:45

China’s rebalancing timetable

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We often read in the press rather alarming stories about the rise of an ugly and belligerent nationalism in China, buy cialis but while these stories are certainly very real, sovaldi after the November 13 bombings in Paris I was struck by a very different kind of Chinese behavior. A lot of young people that […]

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19 октября 2015, 07:00

Thin Air’s money isn’t created out of thin air

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A recurring conversation I have with clients concerns the ability of banks to create credit, buy and of governments to monetize debt, pilule and whether this ability is the solution to or the cause of financial instability and economic crisis. Monetarists and structuralists (to use Michael Hudson’s names for the two sides, illness whose centuries-long […]

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01 сентября 2015, 20:48

If we don’t understand both sides of China’s balance sheet, we understand neither

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With so much happening in China in the past month it seems that there are a number of very specific topics that any essay on China should focus. I worry, however, that we get so caught up staring at strange clumps of trees that we risk losing sight of the forest. What happened in July […]

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18 августа 2015, 21:31

Do markets determine the value of the RMB?

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Last Tuesday the PBoC surprised the markets with a partial deregulation of the currency regime, prompting a great deal of discussion and debate about the value of the RMB. Part of the discussion was informed by a consensus developing in one part of the market that the RMB is no longer undervalued but is in […]