Источник
Insights and Analysis
Выбор редакции
10 апреля, 23:45

Managing Risks & Challenges in Picking Stocks

  • 0

Off The Charts! examines the pertinent economic issues of the day, providing a deeper dive into complex topics and framing the issues in a way that can lead to a better understanding of the financial and commodities markets.

Выбор редакции
06 апреля, 17:00

Sunday Specials: French Elections, U.S. Budget Debate

  • 0

The two rounds of voting in the French elections fall on Sundays, while the U.S. budget debate that begins on a Friday will likely be settled on Sunday.

Выбор редакции
04 апреля, 16:45

Gold: About to Break Out of Lull in Volatility?

  • 0

Off The Charts! examines the pertinent economic issues of the day, providing a deeper dive into complex topics and framing the issues in a way that can lead to a better understanding of the financial and commodities markets.

03 апреля, 16:30

Copper: Sustained Rally Hinges on China, Trump

  • 0

In just over a year, from mid-January 2016 to mid-February 2017, COMEX high grade copper prices soared 45%, erasing about one third of the 58% slump from the peak set in 2011 (Figure 1).  Much of the rebound came after October 2016 and appeared to be supported by three factors. China’s economic growth rate stabilized, and even improved slightly. The election of Donald Trump as President, and the promise of fiscal stimulus. A strike at the Escondida mine in Chile which produces 5% of the world’s copper Copper prices have been falling in recent weeks as each of the rallying points lose steam.  First, the Escondida strike ended on Friday, March 24.  Secondly, the Trump agenda is running into trouble in Congress.  Thirdly, it’s not clear if China will be able to boost or even maintain its growth rate.

Выбор редакции
29 марта, 20:00

Can Yield Curve Foretell a Coming Recession?

  • 0

Off The Charts! examines the pertinent economic issues of the day, providing a deeper dive into complex topics and framing the issues in a way that can lead to a better understanding of the financial and commodities markets.

Выбор редакции
28 марта, 17:00

Equities: Event-Risk Storm on the Horizon?

  • 0

Equities could face event-risk turbulence as Congress attempts to legislate eagerly-awaited tax reforms, infrastructure spending and debt ceiling.

23 марта, 19:30

French Elections: Euro Hangs in the Balance?

  • 0

With the Dutch elections over, the euro has breathed a sigh of relief.  As Geert Wilders' nationalist Freedom Party fell short in the parliamentary elections on March 15, the euro gained nearly one percent against the U.S. dollar, albeit on a day when most currencies strengthened versus the greenback.  While Wilder’s party suffered a spectacular collapse in polls in the immediate run up to the election, there was never any serious concern that he would be running the Dutch government.  By contrast, the upcoming French Presidential election in April has the potential to be a much bigger source of volatility for the euro, as well as other currencies, equities and bonds. France votes in two rounds.  Round one takes place on Sunday, April 23, and the top two vote getters will proceed to the second round on Sunday, May 7.  On both days, the French government will issue an exit poll at 8:00 pm Paris time (7:00 pm London, 2:00 pm New York and 1:00 pm Chicago) with a preliminary projection of the winner.  It appears likely that one of those two top vote getters will be Marine Le Pen of the National Front who promises, among many other things, to hold a referendum on France’s memberships in the European Union (EU) and in the euro currency that spans 19 countries.  As such, a Le Pen victory holds the potential to roil the markets in the way that the surprise Brexit vote did in 2016. On the face of it, she seems unlikely to win.  Recent polls have put her at 20-30% behind her most likely second round opponent, the pro-European centrist Emmanuel Macron (Figure 1).   She trails her next most likely second round opponent, the center-right Francois Fillon, a former Prime Minister, by a 10-20% margin (Figure 2).  Fillon is also pro-Europe.

22 марта, 19:00

Fed: End of an Era of Economists at the Helm?

  • 0

Dr. Janet Yellen’s term as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Fed) System ends in early 2018.  While she could be reappointed for another four-year term as Chair, reading the tea leaves in Washington D.C. suggests a scenario where we may see a person from a business career take over the gavel.  And not just as Chair.  There are three vacancies on the Board of Governors, and we also expect a new Vice-Chair in the summer of 2018.  That is, there is a potential for five new board members on a seven-member board, and some or all of those seats could be filled with business-career credentialed individuals instead of persons with academic or central bank experience.   This could usher in a major cultural change at the Fed.  Such a cultural shift might make a very big difference in how decisions about interest rate policy may be made.  Our intuition is that more business experience on the Fed Board of Governors and fewer economists will shift the debate away from academic interpretations of monetary policy and increase the focus on the interplay of rates and debt.  More specifically, the high debt loads in the U.S. will create a bias for lower than otherwise rates, so that increases in debt-service expenses do not derail an economic recovery.  Over the long haul, if this scenario prevails, a bias toward lower rates relative to inflation is likely to also lead to a weaker trend for the U.S. dollar as well. For a podcast on this topic by Blu Putnam, please visit: www.cmegroup.com/podcasts/off-the-charts-podcast-series/what-will-a-post-yellen-fed-look-like-in-2018.html.

Выбор редакции
21 марта, 14:00

What Will a Post-Yellen Fed Look Like in 2018?

  • 0

Off The Charts! examines the pertinent economic issues of the day, providing a deeper dive into complex topics and framing the issues in a way that can lead to a better understanding of the financial and commodities markets.

Выбор редакции
14 марта, 14:00

Copper: Will Fed Rate Hikes Temper Rally?

  • 0

Off The Charts! examines the pertinent economic issues of the day, providing a deeper dive into complex topics and framing the issues in a way that can lead to a better understanding of the financial and commodities markets.

Выбор редакции
09 марта, 15:00

Factors That Can Blunt Copper's Blistering Rally

  • 0

Copper's sharp price rally has been fueled by expectations of a U.S. fiscal stimulus package, China's still respectable growth rate, and supply disruption.

Выбор редакции
08 марта, 15:00

Is Crude Oil Taking Cue from Vegetable Oils?

  • 0

It looks like the ultimate case of the tail that wagged the dog: soybean oil foreshadowing price trends of crude oil (Figure 1).  It seems odd.  How could the modest soybean oil, whose average daily volume in dollar terms amounted to $2.8 billion in February 2017, lead the colossal West Texas Intermediate crude oil market, whose volume that same month was 21 times greater?