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Finance, Economics, Markets and Technology
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17 мая, 17:59

Powell to emerging markets: you’re on your own

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As the Fed raises rates, it will likely be surprised both by how fragile EMEs are and by the spillover impact Fed policy still has abroad The post Powell to emerging markets: you’re on your own appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1

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17 мая, 16:10

Geopolitical (and market) risks because of US policy and the Fed

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Policy divergence is the driver of market vulnerabilities. The longer the US stands alone in tightening policy, the greater the stress on the financial system. The post Geopolitical (and market) risks because of US policy and the Fed appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1

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10 мая, 17:47

Chart of the day: Real average hourly earnings

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Noah Smith notes that wages aren’t the only way Americans make money. Increasingly, income comes via nonwage compensation and government transfers. The post Chart of the day: Real average hourly earnings appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1

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10 мая, 16:31

The US has not reached full employment yet

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As good as the headline unemployment rate appears to be, we should worry that wage growth for the majority of Americans remains weak. The Federal Reserve, acting on the headline rate, will likely make a significant policy error and raise rates too quickly. The real economy can’t handle higher rates. And the stock market can’t handle higher rates either. The post The US has not reached full employment yet appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1

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07 мая, 16:32

Why I’m not an emerging markets bull

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It's early days. So I wouldn't call this a crisis. What I would say, however, is that the Fed's rate hike train is doubly negative for the emerging markets. We can see the effects in Argentina and Turkey in particular. The post Why I’m not an emerging markets bull appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1

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04 мая, 22:56

The biggest jobs report takeaway is the growth in non-farm payrolls

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Job growth has now begun a slight re-acceleration. If this trend holds, the unemployment rate will drop into the mid 3% range and the Fed will move to a fourth rate hike. The mix of continued job growth, tightening monetary policy, and late cycle dynamics are a dangerous combination. And that danger will be felt most acutely in 2019. The post The biggest jobs report takeaway is the growth in non-farm payrolls appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1

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01 мая, 16:55

Preparing your portfolio for recession in a flattening curve environment

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I've talked about 12-18 between curve inversion and recession months as a rule of thumb. That gives you at least a year to rotate your portfolio and get defensive. The post Preparing your portfolio for recession in a flattening curve environment appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1

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26 апреля, 16:31

The procyclical forces behind the Fed’s rate hike train

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At least initially, rate increases can be procyclical. Moreover, in this particular cycle, fiscal and regulatory policy are acting procyclically too. That means you need a lot of rate hikes to get a big anti-cyclical effect. The post The procyclical forces behind the Fed’s rate hike train appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1

26 апреля, 01:16

The myth of Franco-German friendship

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Since Emmanuel Macron’s election as French president in May 2017, hope has lingered that a mythical friendship between France and Germany will help complete the gaps in the euro area architecture. As this column discusses, however, history provides no basis for such an expectation. National interests, always central to the decision calculus, have diverged even further. French leaders have a pressing task at hand: they need to rejuvenate their own economy and build domestic social cohesion. This may take a generation or more. The post The myth of Franco-German friendship appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1

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25 апреля, 16:21

Further thoughts on the march higher in US interest rates

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The yield curve has steepened to where 10-year yields exceed 2-year yields by 52 basis points. While this may seem like a case of market whiplash, it's not. It's what should be expected in a late cycle rate hike regime. The post Further thoughts on the march higher in US interest rates appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1

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21 апреля, 17:12

Looking past slowing global growth

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Global growth has been slowing. But we have plenty of time before a recession or financial crisis hits. My worries are about financial fragility caused by high asset prices and corporate releveraging. The post Looking past slowing global growth appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1

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20 апреля, 15:59

Links: High yield, retail apocalypse, Tesla and more

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Links on bonds, the yield curve, trade and much more The post Links: High yield, retail apocalypse, Tesla and more appeared first on Credit Writedowns. Feed # abf0d081857b85fe6be494728740a4f1