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Finance, Economics, Markets and Technology
27 апреля, 15:06

Trump is just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster, NAFTA edition

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This morning, the Trump Administration called the leaders of Canada and NAFTA to tell them that he “agreed not to terminate NAFTA at this time,” showing, yet again, that Donald Trump is much less audacious a President than some expected. The question is why. About two months ago, I surmised that despite all his hot rhetoric, Trump’s bark was worse […]

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26 апреля, 15:55

What will policy normalization mean for credit markets (wonkish)

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Given recent hawkish Fed statements and the potential for even more than three hikes, all of this is bullish for longer-duration Treasuries but much less so for auto ABS, high yield and emerging markets.

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25 апреля, 17:46

Canada’s soft lumber and dairy are easy targets for Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy

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Donald Trump is a very media-centric public figure. And because the chatter in DC now is of Trump as a legislative failure during his first hundred days in office, Trump needs a win - and Canada is an easy target. Here’s why.

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25 апреля, 00:46

Why Macron is a risky bet for France and for Europe

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About two months ago I wrote about Emmanuel Macron as a risk, rather than a saviour. Today, following his 1st round presidential victory in France, I feel even more that he represents a risk that is unappreciated. Here’s why.

07 апреля, 16:36

Why the March 2017 jobs report won’t change the Fed’s strategy

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The 98,000 jobs added to payrolls in the US in March were well below the consensus estimate of 178,000, especially when you consider downward revisions to January and February totalled 38,000. I don’t believe this matters for the Fed though; policy tightening will continue apace.

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07 апреля, 13:19

Jobless claims and ADP data positive ahead of jobs report

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The consensus for the March jobs report is for an addition of 178,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%. Other data show the risk is to the upside here.

07 апреля, 01:05

Water desalination as the cure for shortages

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A couple of days ago, a study released by Nature Nanotechnology said a new graphene filter could be a major step forward in removing salt from seawater and making it safe for drinking

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06 апреля, 15:01

Why the Fed minutes show the FOMC moving toward Bullard and balance sheet shrinkage

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What about running down the balance sheet — reverse QE if you will? I think this is where the Fed minutes offered some new thinking.

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05 апреля, 16:18

Why the Fed was talking to big money investors, leading to a major leak

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I think I have the answer to at least one question: why was the Fed talking to big money investors in the first place. My thoughts follow below.

04 апреля, 18:43

Water and mergers and acquisitions

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This is a follow-up on my entry water post from yesterday. The thesis here is that mergers will be a big part of the landscape as companies seek economies of scale and scope or vertically integrate to deliver water to their customers. But before I go into the corporate landscape, let me continue developing some thoughts on why water matters now.

03 апреля, 23:26

Some thoughts on water and climate change

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If water becomes a contentious issue, it will have geopolitical and military implications. And we would need to solve the water issue to prevent those implications from leading to nationalism and military confrontation.

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03 апреля, 23:02

The latest poor numbers coming out of the auto sector

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US auto sales have been down persistently on a year-over-year basis during the past several months. March was no different, according to figures released today.