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Finance, Economics, Markets and Technology
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16 января, 20:36

The Yuan’s Reserve Currency Status

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(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); There is nothing quite like a falling dollar to spur take of the erosion of the greenback's reserve status. For various reasons, countries have chosen to build reserves. Following the decision to hold or build reserves, the question arises as to what currencies to hold. Here's a take specifically on the Yuan Related posts: As the Fed meets, expect expansion through 2018, but problems thereafter Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis and the Fed’s reaction function On China, Japan and the Eurozone’s determining US interest rates

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16 января, 02:26

Some thoughts on this global economic recovery amidst longer-term economic uncertainty

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(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); For the first time in several years, we are seeing economic growth everywhere in the global economy. it almost seems too good to be true. So I want to put this upbeat economic period in context and talk about where I see the opportunities and where I see the threats for policy makers going forward. Related posts: The wisdom of crowds and government bond markets Markets actually aren’t freaking out about Trump What the 33,000 job loss means about where the US economy is right now

12 января, 16:59

Project Syndicate on Trump’s promises to America’s working class citizens

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(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); The question: When November comes, will voters shun the GOP because they dislike Trump or will they look at the economy and return the GOP back to two more years of total control? Related posts: If Donald Trump remains a cultural warrior, he will fail Is Trump just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster? Some thoughts on the Walmart minimum pay increase

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12 января, 15:14

Bailout bank Monte dei Paschi sub deal three times over-subcribed as Euro hits 3-year high

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(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); A subordinated deal in a bank bailed out just a year ago and the currency at a three -year high underscore European investor confidence. Related posts: Not All Germans Love The Euro These Days Trump is dead wrong on Germany. It won’t matter though Why the election timetable favours the Five Star Movement in Italy

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11 января, 21:15

Some thoughts on the Walmart minimum pay increase

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(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Walmarts plan to raise the minimum pay for some employees to $11 an hour is big news. I also think this is good news for Trump and the Republicans as well as for wage rates in the US. Related posts: If Donald Trump remains a cultural warrior, he will fail Is Trump just a conventional politician who uses over-the-top bluster? The failure of the Trump presidency

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11 января, 16:45

Bill Gross: The bond bear actually began 18 months ago, after the Brexit vote

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(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Even though commentary focused on the prevailing bond levels today, what Gross is saying is that the bottom in yields was actually July 2016, 18 months ago. Related posts: What will policy normalization mean for credit markets (wonkish) What are credit markets signalling about the US economy? Why the flattening yield curve doesn’t worry me yet

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11 января, 16:32

Proof that bonds are moving more because of the Fed than China

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(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); 2018 has started with a lot of angst about bond yields. And there is some cause to be concerned. But this owes to an economy that is growing more briskly and to the Fed that has been and probably will be more hawkish than you think. Related posts: The Trump Rally is over What are credit markets signalling about the US economy? The wisdom of crowds and government bond markets

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11 января, 00:00

It’s the booming economy driving bond prices down, not Chinese selling

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(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Until we see slowing in the US economy, we should expect rates to rise somewhat and for a modest steepening of yields. If inflation starts to rise, expect these trends to become even more pronounced. Related posts: On China, Japan and the Eurozone’s determining US interest rates How monetary policy entrenches secular stagnation Secular stagnation is a policy choice

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10 января, 20:04

On China, Japan and the Eurozone’s determining US interest rates

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(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); There are a lot of stories floating around today that moves by central banks in China, Japan and Europe are having - and will continue to have a noticeable impact on US interest rates. Some are even saying this marks the end of the long bond bull market. I am sceptical of these claims because I have fundamental disagreements with the 'model' they use to make those claims. Related posts: Three charts which show the Fed is tightening aggressively How monetary policy entrenches secular stagnation Policy divergence revisited

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10 января, 15:49

Gundlach vs Gross: Here’s how a bond bear market starts

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(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); It’s semantics whether 2.50%, 2.63% or 3.00% is the right level to declare a bear market in bonds. What matters is that the two best-known bond market investors are now saying we are in or near a bond bear market. Related posts: Policy divergence revisited The divergence in equity and credit markets What will policy normalization mean for credit markets (wonkish)

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10 января, 14:50

Galbraith: The Fed is like the little Dutch boy with the finger in the dike

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(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); There hasn’t been inflation in the economy since the early 1980s. It collapsed with the end of the Soviet Union and with the rise of China as a supplier for consumer goods. Related posts: The Fed will continue to tighten despite inflation below target Is the new rout in oil getting worrying? The oil price cliff dive will end the prospect of double-barrelled tightening

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09 января, 22:29

Job openings may have peaked in the US

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(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); While the month-to-month numbers were ordinary, the trend for the past few months is down. Related posts: Quick thought on how jobless claims matter Jobless claims and ADP data positive ahead of jobs report The one data series you should follow to know if the US expansion is in good shape