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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
15 сентября, 20:06

Wildfires: Acres Burned, Suppression Costs

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I received this message from USDA yesterday; it reminded me of some other adjustment costs of climate change. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue today announced that wildland fire suppression costs for the fiscal year have exceeded $2 billion, making 2017 the most expensive year on record. Wildfires have ravaged states in the west, Pacific […]

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15 сентября, 04:10

Wisconsin Employment Continues Downward in August

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And is over 12,000 below April peak. Private nonfarm payroll employment is also declining, with previous months’ data revised down. First, Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment compared to Minnesota (blue) and US (black), relative to 2011M01. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (red), and US (black), all in logs normalized to 2011M01=0. The […]

14 сентября, 17:49

Guest Contribution: “EQCHANGE: A Worldwide Database on Actual and Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rates”

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Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Cécile Couharde (EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Nanterre), Carl Grekou (CEPII), Anne-Laure Delatte (CEPII, EconomiX-CNRS and CEPR), Valérie Mignon (EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Nanterre and CEPII) and Florian Morvillier (EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Nanterre). The widening and persistence of current account disequilibria at the international […]

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13 сентября, 01:16

12 Month Global Temperature Anomaly, August July 2017

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Corrected Source: NOAA, accessed 9/13/2017. Update, 9/13, 8:15am Pacific: A common refrain is that it’s been hotter in the distant past. I think it’s important to remember that while there has always been variation in temperatures, a question is whether temperatures have changed so rapidly in such a short period of time in a time […]

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09 сентября, 04:35

Charlottesville, Eye Contact, and the Fed Chair Post

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Is this how we should be choosing the Fed Chair? From WaPo: Top White House economic adviser Gary Cohn is unlikely to be nominated as Federal Reserve chairman because he criticized President Trump’s response to violent white supremacists last month, two people familiar with the decision-making process said, upending the search for who will control […]

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06 сентября, 03:09

Term Spread, September 5, 2017

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As I was compiling background notes for the new semester, I found the current level and trend in the term spread of interest. Figure 1: Ten year minus three month Treasury spread (blue), and ten year minus two year spread (red), %. Observations for September are 9/5. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: FRED, […]

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05 сентября, 04:53

Market Expectations Regarding Successful Raising of the Debt Ceiling

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The market has apparently taken a dim view of the Administration’s ability to manage the debt ceiling issue. From Deutsche Bank (not online): Truth be told, I am unsurprised.

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03 сентября, 21:44

US Withdrawal from KORUS Free Trade Agreement?

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From Reuters: President Donald Trump on Saturday said he would discuss the fate of a five-year-old U.S.-South Korean free trade deal with his advisers next week, in a move that could see him pull out of the accord with a key American ally at a time of heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula. This seems […]

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01 сентября, 21:01

Thoughts on Trade, Growth and Inequality from “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”

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The Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium this year focused on the causes, implications and remedies for the slowdown in economic growth. Major themes revolved around productivity, fiscal policy, and international trade. Here I discuss some of the major points relating to international trade and inequality, encompassing a paper by Nina Pavcnik (Dartmouth), comments by […]

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31 августа, 03:34

Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy, Again

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One of the most interesting papers presented at the Jackson Hole conference was written by Alan Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko, entitled Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Sustainability. A key takeaway is that fiscal stimulus, during a slump, is likely to reduce — rather than raise — the debt to GDP ratio. This point is highlighted in […]

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29 августа, 18:38

How Will the Wall Be Funded?

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Donald Trump has reaffirmed: “One way or the other Mexico will pay for the wall.” At the same time, as recently as today, Trump threatened a government shutdown if Congress did not provide funding for the wall. Time to consider how these points are — or are not — internally consistent, even allowing for the […]

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29 августа, 03:33

Guest Contribution: “The Signal/Noise Ratio in US North Korea Policy”

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Today, we present part two of a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared as “Can Trump Deal with North Korea and China?” in Project Syndicate. Americans have under-estimated the nuclear threat […]