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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
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01 декабря, 06:25

USDA Speaks

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From Quarterly Agricultural Export Forecast, released yesterday. Fiscal year (October/September) 2019 agricultural exports are projected at $141.5 billion, down $1.9 billion from fiscal year 2018 and $3.0 billion from the August 2018 forecast, largely due to decreases in soybeans and cotton. Soybean export volumes are down because of declining Chinese purchases from the United States […]

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30 ноября, 02:42

“Failed tax-cut experiment in Kansas should guide national leaders”

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That’s the title of an oped by Heather Boushey in The Hill. There’s not much to disagree with in the article, but I think one graph of Kansas employment would’ve really driven home the conclusion. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Missouri (blue) and in Kansas (red), both in logs 2011M01=0. Orange shading pertains to […]

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29 ноября, 19:57

Guest Contribution: “Trade War is Not a Reason to Ease Money”

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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on November 26th. We are in a trade war, with no sign of peace breaking out anytime soon. […]

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29 ноября, 07:09

So…Tired…of…Winning (Trade Deficit Edition)

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I’m using Mr. Trump’s definition. Trade deficit overall (NIPA definition) and bilateral with China both increasing. Note that not much progress is apparent even if normalizing by GDP. Figure 2: US net exports (blue), and US-China goods trade balance (red), both as a share of GDP. Net exports NIPA definition, SAAR. US-China is difference of […]

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25 ноября, 00:24

Fourth National Climate Assessment

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Despite the Trump Administration’s best attempts to bury this report, you should read it. Some people will dismiss the output of a government interagency report. The National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine Review notes: The Committee was impressed by the accuracy of information and thorough discussion of the predominant aspects of climate change and […]

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22 ноября, 12:27

This Doesn’t Look Like a China Getting Ready to Capitulate to Trump

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From Bloomberg: Source: Bloomberg, 21 November 2018. Just sayin’… Side observation: From my reading of the article, the Chinese approach to “freedom of the financial press” is very Trumpian. Or alternatively, the Trump approach to freedom of the press is very Xi-ian.

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22 ноября, 00:25

Introducing DBnomics

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Researchers have long relied upon the St. Louis Fed’s FRED and ALFRED databases for (primarily) US series. Now, Banque de France, CEPREMAP and France Stratégie have launched a new free database of international macro data, DBnomics. Figure: Eurostoxx 50 index.Source: DBnomics. DBnomics brings together data from 45 providers with a graphic interface, and should make […]

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21 ноября, 12:16

When Can We Stop Winning? Midwest Ag Edition

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“I’ve never seen things this bad,” Altom said. “I know several farmers who hired lawyers, to see if they can sue over the [soybean and corn storage] pricing and fees issues.” That’s from a Reuters article entitled Harvesting in a trade war: U.S. crops rot as storage costs soar published today. Thanks, Trump. And to […]

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20 ноября, 13:09

“Who is Paying for the Trade War with China?”

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That’s the title of a new report published by a consortium of European academic institutes, and written by Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr. I don’t have a problem with the analysis, which is mostly straightforward. It’s just a problem with the title. The paper is really a quantitative analysis of the incidence of the Trump […]

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17 ноября, 05:02

Wisconsin GDP Surge Revised Away

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New figures released by the BEA, incorporating annual benchmark revisions, indicate Wisconsin has been growing more slowly than previously thought; Q/q growth in 2018Q2 was ranked 48th in the Union. This outcome is illustrated in the following map. Further, note the substantial downward revisions in the level of GDP over the last three and a […]

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16 ноября, 00:40

Wisconsin Employment Declines, Previous Revised Down

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Figures released by DWD suggest a slowdown in Wisconsin. Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment, from August release (green), September release (red), and October release (blue). BLS and DWD. In addition, Minnesota has (again) essentially caught up with Wisconsin in employment. Figure 2: Minnesota nonfarm payroll employment (blue) and Wisconsin (red). BLS and DWD, DEED. […]

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15 ноября, 05:17

Odds on a Trade Truce: Soybean Edition

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The gap between US and Brazil soybean prices is (finally) shrinking: Source: CNBC. CNBC notes: “Narrowing US-Brazil soybean price differentials imply greater market optimism on the potential for a Trump-Xi trade deal or at least a de-escalation of US-Sino trade tensions in advance of the G20. This positive sentiment stands somewhat in contrast to other […]