Источник
Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Выбор редакции
26 мая, 07:20

No V Recovery: 538.com & IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook Survey Series

From IGM: The IGM is administering this new survey on the outlook for the economy in collaboration with fivethirtyeight.com. The FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey complements the existing IGM expert panels and is being overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright. The list of experts answering the questions is identified in the post along […]

Выбор редакции
26 мая, 06:50

The Elasticity of Mortality with Respect to Recession

I hear a lot about deaths rising with recessions. What does the data indicate about the robustness of such a relationship? Below is a plot of the deaths/population ratio, in logs. Figure 1: Log ratio of deaths to population. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: CDC, Census via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations. Estimating […]

Выбор редакции
25 мая, 06:10

How Many People Are Being Killed by the Lockdown?

  • 0

From the Washington Examiner, and op-ed, via AEI: Although lockdowns are preventing some deaths, they are undoubtedly increasing deaths by other causes. This virus is killing people not only by infecting millions but also by inducing a policy response that kills people. First, …Isolation kills in many ways. We don’t have data that the lockdowns […]

Выбор редакции
24 мая, 01:47

NY Times Cover for 5/24/2020

  • 0

Выбор редакции
22 мая, 21:37

Trump’s Implicit Valuation of Life: Back of Envelope Calculations from the Pandemic Response

  • 0

According to researchers at Columbia University, implementation of shelter-in-place/social distance measures one week earlier would’ve saved 36,000 lives. Given the GDP that was generated in that one week, this implies Trump’s implicit valuation of one life is $1.16 million (compared to typical Value of Statistical Life of about $11 million). Here are the calculations: 2019Q4 […]

Выбор редакции
19 мая, 22:10

How the (Soybean) Trade War Was Won

  • 0

By the rest-of-the-world, i.e., countries that China did not retaliate against. Thanks, Trump! See also Carter and Steinbach (2020). Our reduced-form regression results indicate large and statistically significant trade effects of retaliatory tariff increases for the United States and non-retaliatory countries. The identification is robust to pre-existing trends and anticipatory effects and reveals substantial heterogeneity […]

Выбор редакции
17 мая, 00:16

Tracking the State Economies during the Pandemic

  • 0

A couple years ago, Ryan LeCloux and I were cataloging the ways in which to track the individual state economies, at higher than annual frequency (paper here). I think that topic will be of interest again. State employment figures for April will come out on the 22nd, Philadelphia Fed coincident indices on the 27th. For […]

Выбор редакции
15 мая, 22:01

Business Cycle Indicators, May 15th

  • 0

With industrial production for April released, we have a clearer picture of economic activity in that month. Here are some indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), […]

Выбор редакции
15 мая, 03:26

Guest Contribution: “Global bond market contagion in times of Covid-19”

  • 0

Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School and International Institute of Forecasters) and Capucine Nobletz (University Paris Nanterre). In this post we assess contagion among government bond markets by focusing on the Covid-19 crisis period. Using the approach put forward by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014), we empirically […]

Выбор редакции
14 мая, 03:44

WSJ Survey: Less and Less “V”

  • 0

From the Wall Street Journal’s May survey: Figure 1: GDP in billions of Ch.2012$, SAAR, reported (black bold), WSJ survey mean (green), lowest q4/q4 estimate from Daniel Bachman at Deloitte (tan), and highest from James F. Smith at Parsec Financial (red). Source: WSJ May survey, BEA, and author’s calculations. James F. Smith from Parsec Financial […]

Выбор редакции
14 мая, 00:16

200 Economists: “Costly protectionism should not be foisted on patients at home and abroad”

  • 0

From an open letter to Mr. Trump: A Buy America directive can also hamstring the ability of U.S. pharmaceutical and medical equipment manufacturers to meet our future needs if firms are denied access to essential foreign supplies. Moreover, we can expect our trading partners to adopt retaliatory “Don’t Buy American” barriers targeting U.S. exports as […]

Выбор редакции
11 мая, 22:25

Who Is Predicting a “V” Shaped Recovery?

  • 0

I was wondering about this question as I followed the discussion of how to categorize recoveries. I was reminded by crampell to check the WSJ survey (which requires me to somehow circumnaviate the paywall), and this is what I found. Figure 1: GDP, in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR (black bold), WSJ April 2020 survey mean (green), […]