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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
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17 сентября, 21:52

Ken Rogoff: “Is this the beginning of the end of central bank independence?”

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Why you should attend this UW Economics JPGI talk by Kenneth Rogoff tomorrow (Wednesday) at 4:30 pm: …The United States, because of the Federal Reserve, is paying a MUCH higher Interest Rate than other competing countries. They can’t believe how lucky they are that Jay Powell & the Fed don’t have a clue. And now, on […]

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16 сентября, 18:35

Guest Contribution: “Identifying the German business cycle”

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Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of International Economics, SKEMA Business School, Paris), and Director, International Institute of Forecasting. For few months, a recurrent economic issue is the possible U.S. economic recession in 2020 (see discussions on Econbrowser here and here). But there are also some similar questions […]

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16 сентября, 02:39

Some Observations on Determining Business Cycle Chronologies

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Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is a commonplace rule of thumb for defining recessions, but the original conception of recessions is not captured by this simple definition. As some people have disagreed with my description (see [1]), it might be useful to review how recessions are defined in the US (with associated drawbacks), […]

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14 сентября, 00:22

“The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty”

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That’s the title of a new paper by Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo: Abstract: We study the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. We construct three measures of TPU based on newspaper coverage, firms’ earnings conference calls, and aggregate data on tariff rates. We document […]

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13 сентября, 04:40

“Massive, rotting soybean pile still burns after catching fire in July”

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Best simile ever for Trumpian trade policy. From UPI:  

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09 сентября, 20:26

Additional Graphs for Econ 435 Lecture

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In anticipation of Jim Hamilton‘s talk this Wednesday,  I’m going to talk a little about recessions in today’s lecture. Here are some data to keep in mind: Growth appears to be decelerating, including nowcasts: But the most recently released data for some key variables do not yet signal a recession: Except for some transportation indicators, […]

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09 сентября, 08:47

Freight Shipping Growth and Recession Probability

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Prob(recessiont) = -1.925 – 16.10 freightgrowtht + ut McFadden R2 = 0.51 NObs = 235 (2000M01-2019M07). Coefficients significant at 5% msl bold. Figure 1: Year-on-year growth in Cass Freight Index, in % (blue, left scale), recession probability from probit regression, in % (red, right scale). NBER recession dates shaded gray. Source: Cass Information Systems, Inc. via FRED, NBER and […]

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08 сентября, 06:47

Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index, Updated to 2017

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See the website for the data. Here’s a map of financial openness in 2017 (normalized index, 1 to 0. The darker, the more open. And here’s the evolution of the series, by country income group.  

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08 сентября, 01:09

Five Observations on the Employment Release

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1.  The deceleration in employment growth is noticeable; 2. Taken with the preliminary benchmark revision, it’s possible employment growth deceleration is even more marked; 3. With accounting for temporary census workers, m/m growth is fairly anemic; 4. Nonetheless, latest vintages of key indicators suggest only a slowdown; 5. Manufacturing employment and hours (as well as […]

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07 сентября, 02:14

The Politics and Policy of China

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A Tenure-track Position at UW Madison “The University of Wisconsin-Madison seeks to hire a faculty member with research and teaching interests in comparative politics or international relations, with a primary focus on China and a secondary focus on East Asia and the Pacific Rim. Potential areas of substantive expertise in the politics and policy of […]

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06 сентября, 07:54

Guest Contribution: “A disaster under-(re)insurance puzzle: Home bias in disaster risk-bearing”

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Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written Hiro Ito (Portland State University) and Robert N. McCauley (formerly Bank for International Settlements). The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affilliated with. One basic role of international financial markets is to share risks […]

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03 сентября, 22:54

“Predicting the Next Recession” with James Hamilton

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I’ll be at this UW Dept of Economics event, in order to learn what awaits us all… (Actually, it’s required attendance for my Financial System course.) Registration information here.