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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
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27 мая, 11:00

Guest Contribution: “An Economic Platform for the Democrats”

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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared in Project Syndicate. Democrats are gearing up for the November mid-term elections, in which they hope to take back the US […]

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26 мая, 19:55

Inclusion: What’s It Good For?

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(Once again, apologies to Seinfeld). PBS presents a documentary on “The Chinese Exclusion Act”,” the 1882 law that made it illegal for Chinese workers to come to America and for Chinese nationals already here ever to become U.S. citizens. The first in a long line of acts targeting the Chinese for exclusion, it remained in […]

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23 мая, 21:54

Long Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity, Updated

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About twenty years ago, while visiting the Research Department of the IMF, Guy Meredith poked his head in my office and wondered aloud whether interest differentials could reliably predict (in the right direction) subsequent exchange rate changes at horizons of three to five years. The resulting paper led in turn to production of this graph: […]

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22 мая, 18:04

Guest Contribution: “Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin”

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Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Michele Ca’ Zorzi (ECB) and Michal Rubaszek (SGH Warsaw School of Economics). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. We have just released a new ECB Working Paper entitled “Exchange rate forecasting on a […]

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22 мая, 01:37

Incidences and Cumulative Mass Shooting Casualties Associated with Use of Semi-Automatic Rifles: The Last Ten Years

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Reader Bruce Hall, commenting on the focus on mass shootings and semi-automatic weapon use, remarks: The focus on the AR-15 is illogical. I agree, to the extent that we should implement stricter controls on all types of semi-automatic weapons, high caliber magazines, as well as other types of guns. Nonetheless, it is becoming harder to […]

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21 мая, 20:45

Guest Contribution: “The Exposure of U.S. Manufacturing Industries to Exchange Rates”

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Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with. On March 8th President Trump announced […]

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20 мая, 23:09

Things I Never Thought I’d Have to Explain on Econbrowser: Trade Creation/Trade Diversion

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Suppose you (the UK) are in a tariff-ridden world, getting butter from your former colony and current Commonwealth partner New Zealand, the global low cost producer. Then you (the UK) decide to join a customs union that encompasses Denmark, which produces butter at a lower cost than the UK, but higher than New Zealand. In […]

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20 мая, 20:39

“(Trade) Peace For Our Time”

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Not the phrase used by the White House, but I think the essence of the statement. From ActionForex: THE WHITE HOUSE – Office of the Press Secretary FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – May 19, 2018 Joint Statement of the United States and China Regarding Trade Consultations At the direction of President Donald J. Trump and President […]

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19 мая, 21:58

Is California in Recession? (Part VI)

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Back in mid-December, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession. The release of April state-level employment figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred, and is currently not occurring. Figure 1: Log nonfarm payroll employment for California (blue), and for US (black), normalized to 2011M01=0. Source: BLS, and […]

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19 мая, 09:16

How to Reduce the US-China Trade Deficit by $200 Billion: A Modest Proposal

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Jim Tankersley/NYT discusses how hard it will be to reduce the $337 billion US-China gross trade deficit by $200 billion by increasing exports (as I point out in this post, our trade deficit in value added is probably about half the $337 billion). The enormity of the task of cajoling the Chinese into buying $200 […]

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19 мая, 02:01

Tales from the Midwest (Macro Spring Meetings, That Is)

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Program here. Here are a couple of papers I found of interest. From the Empirical Macro session: “Output response to government spending: Evidence from new international military spending data,” By Viacheslav Sheremirov; Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Sandra Spirovska; University of Wisconsin, Madison Using 25 years of military spending data from more than a hundred […]

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19 мая, 01:01

Semi-automatic Rifle Use and Mass Shooting Casualties, 1982M08-2018M04

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Figure 1: Cumulative mass shooting fatalities from incidents where semi-automatic rifles used (blue), non-fatal injured (light blue), fatalities where other weapons (handguns, semi-automatic handguns, rifles, shotguns) used (red), non-fatal injured (pink), through April 2018. Light green denotes assault weapons ban. Orange denotes 2017M01-2018M04. Source: Mother Jones, accessed 5/18/2018, and author’s calculations. The above graph does […]