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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
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16 января, 08:06

A Trumpian Immigration Policy

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Once again I’m going to save Donald Trump some time in writing up the legislation. Here is some handy-dandy text borrowed from the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882. An Act to Execute Certain Treaty Stipulations Relating to individuals of s***hole countries Whereas, in the opinion of the Government of the United States the coming of […]

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16 января, 00:08

Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Rise

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What does it mean for economic activity? Figure 1: Daily US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (blue), and centered 7 day moving average (bold red). Source: policyuncertainty.com accessed 1/15/2018, and author’s calculations. Does economic policy uncertainty matter for real activity. In a new CEPII brief, Laurent Ferrara, Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier review the evidence in […]

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15 января, 21:03

Government Shutdown Expectations

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Now at 29%, according to PredictIt, for 1/22 (CR ends midnight this Friday). Source: PredictIt.

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15 января, 01:31

Making Mexico Pay for the Wall (Redux)

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So we’re back to this again? From CNN: “They can pay for it indirectly through NAFTA,” Trump said Thursday in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “We make a good deal on NAFTA, and, say, ‘I’m going to take a small percentage of that money and it’s going toward the wall.’ Guess what? Mexico’s […]

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14 января, 01:32

Rookie Economist Errors III: Level vs. Growth Rate (Again)

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Reader Vivian Darkbloom provides our first example of a rookie economist error for 2018. Vivian is exercised about CRFB’s characterization of the JCT’s growth forecast conditioned on TCJA: This results in the final bill increasing average GDP growth by just 0.01 to 0.02 percentage points per year over a decade. as discussed here. He writes: […]

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13 января, 01:38

More Faith Based Budgeting from Mnuchin

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From Reuters: U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday he believed the Republican tax cuts will ultimately become revenue neutral over 10 years due to higher growth, but the Treasury will likely ask Congress for more money to implement the plan. Just to remind readers, the Treasury’s own one-page “study” does not indicate revenue […]

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13 января, 00:24

The Course of the Dollar

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We tell our students not to read too much into the strength or weakness of a currency. However, the dollar’s trajectory since November 2016 is quite striking. Here is the trade weighted real value of the US dollar against a broad basket of currencies, through December 2017. Figure 1: Real value of US dollar against […]

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11 января, 01:51

Formal Assessment of the Growth Impact of the TCJA

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Never have so many simulations been ignored in favor of faith in tax cuts. Here’s the CRFB’s run down on growth impacts from the tax legislation as passed. Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (Jan. 3, 201strike>98). Hence “the final bill [increases] average GDP growth by just 0.01 to 0.02 percentage points per year […]

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08 января, 22:03

Guest Contribution: “Trade and Inequality Within Countries”

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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column that appeared at Project Syndicate. Inequality has been on the rise within the United States and other […]

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05 января, 21:04

Negative interest rates

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A few years ago, most economic models presumed that interest rates were subject to a lower bound of zero. Why lend a dollar to someone who only promises to pay you back 99 cents, when you could just hold on to the dollar yourself? But we now have several years of experience from Sweden, Denmark, […]

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05 января, 02:35

Stephen Moore: “When It Comes To Electric Power, Coal Is No. 1”

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That’s a title of a July 28 piece in IBD. He writes: According to the Energy Information Administration, which tracks energy use in production on a monthly basis, the single largest source of electric power for the first half of 2017 was…coal. Once again, I can’t replicate his results. But even more interesting, the conclusion […]

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03 января, 09:14

Stephen Moore’s Analysis of Income Taxes and Employment Growth

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Or, Stephen Moore Is (Still) a Liar On July 9th, 2014, the Wichita Eagle published an op-ed by Mr. Stephen Moore: No-income-tax Texas gained 1 million jobs over the past five years; California, with its 13 percent tax rate, managed to lose jobs. Oops. Florida gained hundreds of thousands of jobs while New York lost […]