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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
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21 августа, 02:23

Killing the Messenger (on Climate)

From WaPo today: The Trump administration has decided to disband the federal advisory panel for the National Climate Assessment, a group aimed at helping policymakers and private-sector officials incorporate the government’s climate analysis into long-term planning. The charter for the 15-person Advisory Committee for the Sustained National Climate Assessment — which includes academics as well […]

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03 августа, 12:32

What’s the Dead Weight Loss of a Consumption Tax When Externalities Are Present?

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Or, Ironman at Political Calculations mangles Econ 101. Again. Political Calculates takes on the issue of the Philadelphia soda tax issue, asking specifically “Who is really paying Philadelphia’s controversial soda tax? And how much, if at all, has it affected the economy of the City of Philadelphia?” A little online tool to calculate tax incidence […]

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31 июля, 23:58

Guest Contribution: “Central Banks: From Triumph to Crisis and The Road Ahead”

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Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Pierre Siklos, Professor of Economics at Wilfrid Laurier University. The Great Recession of 2008-9 was preceded by the Great Moderation, a period thought to have lasted around 20 years. Nevertheless, as we approach a decade since the Global or Great Financial Crisis (GFC) erupted, […]

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29 июля, 01:26

U.S. begins ninth year of economic expansion

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the second quarter. That is below the long-term historical average of 3.1%, but better than the 2.1% we’ve seen on average since the Great Recession ended in 2009. This helped our Econbrowser Recession Indicator Index to ease […]

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27 июля, 19:33

Beware the State Level Household Employment Series: Wisconsin Edition

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Steve Kopits obsesses on the household survey based employment series for Wisconsin, despite our previous exchange on why reliance on this series for Kansas is a problem. But just to make matters concrete, lets look at a few vintages of the household series. Figure 1: Civilian employment from HOUSEHOLD survey in Wisconsin, from December 2015 […]

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26 июля, 11:33

Guest Contribution: “Why the Republicans Can’t Reform Health Care”

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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate. Why do Republican politicians seem utterly unable to come together on a bill to “repeal and replace” the […]

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25 июля, 16:43

Context Is Important: More on MN vs. WI

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Reader Jesse Livermore thinks he’s discovered Wisconsin is in actuality doing really well vis a vis Minnesota. He writes: Wisconsin personal income growth dramatically outperformed Minnesota in Q1. Well, I’ll just say the level is sometimes just as important as the first derivative. That’s why I plot time series, rather than just quoting a quarter’s […]

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24 июля, 11:44

Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment Continues to Decline

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And lags further behind its neighbor Minnesota. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment is now below April 2017 peak. Finally, employment lags what would be predicted from the historical correlation of Wisconsin employment with national. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (red), and US (black), all in logs normalized to 2011M01=0. The light […]

21 июля, 16:01

Stephen Moore Is a Liar, Part 2

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“For now, there is nothing the matter with Kansas.” – Stephen Moore, June 17, 2014 Readers will recall that, in response to CNN bringing Stephen Moore on board as an “economics analyst”, I noted that Stephen Moore is a liar. Now I continue with the Kansas edition. For those who forgot, in the original Wichita […]

20 июля, 12:46

So You Want to Fix the Trade Deficit?

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Well, I don’t think a few tariffs and quotas, plus “tweaking” Nafta, are going to do it. And blowing a hole in the Federal deficit ain’t likely to help. First take a look at the trade deficit as defined in the national income accounting sense (i.e., “net exports”), expressed as a share of GDP: Figure […]

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20 июля, 08:02

(Transitory) Revealed Preferences

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Here’s the health coverage implications of President Trump’s proposal to repeal Obamacare, as assessed by the CBO: Figure 1: Effects of H.R. 1628, THE Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017, on health insurance coverage of people under age 65, in millions, by calendar year. Source: CBO, Table 4. So, at least for part of one […]

18 июля, 04:39

“Challenges for Global Macroeconomic Stability and the Role of the G7”

At the invitation of the Italian Presidency of the Group of Seven (G7) in 2017, the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) conducted a research project on “Major Challenges for Global Macroeconomic Stability and the Role of the G7” together with a major policy think tank in each of the other G7 member countries: Center for International […]