Источник
Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Выбор редакции
17 ноября, 22:12

Federal Spending Implications of the House GOP Tax Plan: $25 bn Off of Medicare …

  • 0

As noted in this earlier post, the distributional consequences of the House Tax Cuts and Jobs Act should include the spending cuts. According to CBO, there will be a $25 billion cut to Medicare unless independent legislation is passed. From TPM: …automatic cuts spring into action anytime Congress passes a bill that balloons the federal […]

Выбор редакции
16 ноября, 23:38

Tracking Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment

  • 0

The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (DWD) today released new employment data for October. Manufacturing employment surged in the establishment data, but the contemporaneously released additional three months of data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) (through June) suggests slower manufacturing growth. Figure 1: Wisconsin manufacturing payroll employment from establishment survey (CES) […]

Выбор редакции
16 ноября, 09:51

Distributional Consequences of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

  • 0

Here’s a metaphorical picture: Source: AP/Jacquelyn Martin via Garber. and here’s a more technical depiction. Source: Tax Policy Center. Notice that in 2027 the benefits skew much more toward higher incomes. And in general, the cuts accruing to the lower income households expire, while those to the higher are permanent.

Выбор редакции
15 ноября, 19:09

The Real Adrenaline Shot? Kansas since the End of the Brownback Experiment

  • 0

Kansas employment nosedived in June, and has bounced back since the Brownback tax cut was rolled back. Kansas employment is catching up with Missouri after lagging. The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident and leading indices also point to a recovery in Kansas. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Kansas (blue), on log scale. Source: BLS. Notice that […]

14 ноября, 23:17

CBO/JCT on Deficits and Debt under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

  • 0

And resulting impending cuts to Medicare. Per CBO letter released yesterday. Figure 1: Federal budget balance to GDP, by FY, baseline (blue), and under Tax Cut and Jobs Act (red). Source: CBO. Figure 2: Federal debt held by the public to GDP, by FY, baseline (blue), and under Tax Cut and Jobs Act (red). Source: […]

Выбор редакции
14 ноября, 09:34

Quarterly Census Data on Wisconsin Manufacturing: More on Premature Triumphalism

  • 0

Recall the Walker Administration termed the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) the “gold standard” of employment measures. I thought it useful to compare the QCEW figures on manufacturing against the establishment survey. Here is the twelve month growth rate under the two measures (the QCEW data is not seasonally adjusted). Figure 1: 12 […]

14 ноября, 04:40

Guest Contribution: “The Long-term Job Decline in US Manufacturing”

  • 0

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. What does international trade have to do with US jobs? Surely the US trade deficit in manufacturing has reduced employment? Not as much as you […]

12 ноября, 00:41

How’s Wisconsin’s Economy Doing?

  • 0

Employment underperforming the February Budget forecast; output too. Philadelphia Fed indices say activity is flat. A time series forecast using forward-looking indicators implies a continued rise in the unemployment rate. Ever since the Wisconsin Department of Revenue stopped publishing the Wisconsin Economic Outlook (see here for discussion), I’ve been forced to compile on my own […]

10 ноября, 10:07

Defining Crowding Out in an Open Economy

  • 0

Gavin Ekins argues that it’s Time to Shoulder Aside “Crowding Out” As an Excuse Not to Do Tax Reform. From the introduction: Government budget deficits do absorb a portion of national or global saving, diverting the saving from supporting private investment. This is known as “crowding out.” However, saving is flexible both in magnitude and […]

Выбор редакции
09 ноября, 07:51

Ethnic Diversity Measured

  • 0

In trying to explain why Canada has lower gun death rates than the US, Bruce Hall boldly asserts that Canada is more ethnically homogenous than the US. I wonder in this data-rich era why people make bold assertions like this. Mr. Hall bases his assertion on data analyzed by Political Calculations. For reasons I have […]

Выбор редакции
07 ноября, 10:24

Cumulative Mass Shooting Casualties in America as of November 6th

  • 0

Figure 1: Cumulative sum of mass shooting casualties, beginning in 1982M08; deaths (red), wounded (pink). October observation for data through 11/6. Source: Mother Jones. Here’s a detail: Figure 2: Cumulative sum of mass shooting casualties, beginning in 2007M01; deaths (red), wounded (pink). October observation for data through 11/6. Source: Mother Jones. This graph is for […]

06 ноября, 06:46

Crimes against Economic Analysis

  • 0

Well, Sam Clovis is no longer under consideration to be the top scientist at USDA (a good thing given he has no scientific credentials). But Bill Beach is nominated to be Commissioner of Labor Statistics, i.e., heading BLS. When last we heard of Bill Beach, he had just revised the fantastical forecasts of the Ryan […]