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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
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20 октября, 08:09

Guest Contribution: “Modeling Time-Variation Over the Business Cycle (1960-2017): An International Perspective”

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Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Enrique Martínez-García (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), based on his forthcoming article in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. The views expressed here are those solely of the author and do not reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal […]

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19 октября, 19:37

Guest Contribution: “China’s Q3 GDP Reportedly Slowed to 6.5%. Or Is It 6.4%?”

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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Headlines today note a further slowdown in China’s growth. Newly announced GDP data give a preliminary estimate of 6.5 % in the 3rd quarter of […]

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19 октября, 10:33

Q3 Chinese Growth

Q/q Chinese growth in 2018Q3 is estimated at 1.6% (not annualized), after downwardly revised 1.7% rate in Q2. Y/y growth was 6.5%. [1] [2] Source: TradingEconomics. There are two things to remember. First, reported GDP growth is implausibly smooth; even so, this is not proof that GDP is overstated. There is widespread belief that services […]

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19 октября, 01:24

Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth in US and Wisconsin (Not Pretty!)

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Figure 1: US private nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), and Wisconsin (red), both in logs, normalized to 2017M01. Source: BLS, DWD, author’s calculations.

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18 октября, 21:05

Wisconsin Labor Force, Civilian, Total and Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment All Decline

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August total NFP and private NFP also revised downward. Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment, from August release (blue), and September release (red), 000’s, s.a., on log scale. Source: BLS, DWD. Figure 2: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment, from August release (blue), and September release (red), 000’s, s.a., on log scale. Source: BLS, DWD. The […]

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18 октября, 07:47

Guest Contribution: “The role of debt dynamics in US household consumption”

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Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Vincent Grossmann-Wirth and Clément Marsilli (Banque de France) summarizing their chapter in the book International Macroeconomics in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis edited by L. Ferrara, I. Hernando and D. Marconi. The views expressed here are those solely of the authors and […]

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17 октября, 00:35

The Fed: Drumpffeind

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So sayeth Donald Trump today. From FoxBusiness: “My biggest threat is the Fed,” Trump said on Tuesday during an interview with FOX Business’ Trish Regan. “Because the Fed is raising rates too fast, and it’s too independent,” he complained. To recap, the Fed’s increase in interest rates is by most criteria fairly modest. Consider the […]

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16 октября, 01:21

Ashok Mody at UW: “EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts”

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On Wednesday, October 17. Wednesday, October 17, 2018, 12:00PM – 2:00PM Location: Grainger Hall, 975 University Avenue, Plenary Room Asoka Mody, visiting professor in international economic policy at Princeton University, will discuss his recent book, followed by comments from La Follette School Professors Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch. Sponsored by the La Follette School of […]

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15 октября, 18:50

The effectiveness of large-scale asset purchases

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That’s the topic of a piece I put up at VoxEU, which draws on my comments at a recent conference at the Brookings Institution.

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14 октября, 19:12

N. Dakota “orphan soybeans” at 236 million bushels

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That’s from WaPo. In 2017, the US exported 1.2 billion bushels to China: North Dakota’s orphan soybeans today are nearly 1/5 of total sales to China in 2017… “Lots of guys will be scrambling,” said Joe Ericson, a grower who operates a 5,000-acre farm near Wimbledon. “It’s going to be a struggle. This year might […]

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12 октября, 08:21

Guest Contribution: “The New NAFTA”

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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate. Donald Trump thinks he once again pulled off a smashing victory on October 1, delivering on his oft-repeated […]

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11 октября, 23:45

Trump: “I think the Fed has gone crazy”

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Implicitly, Trump is saying John Taylor is crazy, since the original Taylor rule would imply even faster rises in the Fed funds rate (I am inferring from Professor Taylor’s discussion of neutral rates. Below I plot the implied Fed funds rate, assuming no interest rate smoothing, the Laubach-Williams one-sided estimate of the real natural rate, […]