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18 января, 11:52

Chinese GDP Beats Expectations, Asian Equity Markets Pared Gains, European Markets Futures Point to Positive Open

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This morning, ahead of the European markets open at 07.00am GMT, we saw the release of a range of data from China. Chinese Retail Sales came in at 9.4% v an expected 10.1%, from a previous 10.2%. Industrial Production came in at 6.2% v an expected 6.0%, from a previous 6.1%, and probably the most important, YoY GDP came in unchanged at 6.8% v an expected 6.7%. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and studies the gross value of all goods and services produced by China. The indicator presents the pace at which the Chinese economy is growing or decreasing. As the Chinese economy influences the global economy, this economic event normally has an impact on the Asian equity and Forex markets. Turning to currencies, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded slightly from its three-year low, currently trading at 90.65. Euro dropped a bit post various ECB speeches, currently trading just below the psychological 1.2200 level. Sterling jumped initially to an intraday high of 1.3940, creating a fresh post-Brexit high, before correcting slightly to 1.3810 ahead of the European open. In Commodities, WTI is higher, trading very close to the important $64.00, mainly reflecting solid compliance to OPEC production cuts, currently at above 100% for December. Precious metals weakened, with Gold below $1330 and Silver close to $17.00, both trading slightly lower. Other base metals like Copper, Zinc and Aluminium also fell. Eurozone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Dec) was released coming in at 1.1%. The consensus was for 0.9%, from 1.1% previously. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) was as expected at 0.4%, from 0.1% previously. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was as expected, unchanged at 1.4%. Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (Dec) was 0.5% v an expected 0.4%, from -0.1% prior. EURUSD moved higher to 1.22495 but then fell back down to retrace the initial move. UK MPC Member Saunders spoke at the Financial Intermediary and Broker Association inaugural conference in London. He said that any further tightening would be gradual and limited. The Jobless rate is likely to fall to 4% or below in 2018, from 4.3% in late 2017. The near-term outlook for the UK economy is not great but not terrible. Pay growth is likely to increase to 3% or more in 2018. GBPUSD fell to 1.37802 during this time. US Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) was released and came in at 0.9%. The consensus was for 0.4%, from 0.2% previously. Capacity Utilization (Dec) was also released at the same time, coming in at 77.9% v an expected 77.3%, from 77.1% prior, which was revised up to 77.2%. USDJPY sold off from 110.764 to 110.625. US NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan) was as expected at 72. The previous reading was 74. The Bank of Canada Rate Statement was made public. The Monetary Policy Report was also released and the Interest Rate Decision was increased, as expected, to 1.25% from 1.00% previously. In the statement, the Bank …

17 января, 10:30

Bank of Canada Rate Hike Expected Today

The BOC is expected to deliver an Interest rate hike of 25bps today as it seeks to catch up with an economy that is flying high. BOC’s Governor Poloz will deliver his decision and Press Conference, where he will outline the factors involved in making the decision. Chief among them will be the broad underlying wage growth and strong price dynamics of the economy, coupled with excesses in the financial system. The Governor down-played NAFTA concerns in his December speech but as the Trade negotiations are on-going this week, they will remain a concern for the economy unless a positive resolution can be found. With this in mind, a somewhat dovish speech is expected today to balance strong economic performance with ongoing uncertainties, maintaining flexibility for future policy decisions. We await the BOC decision at 15:00 GMT. German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Dec) was released unchanged at 1.6%, as expected. Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Dec) was -0.3% v an expected 0.3%, from 0.5% previously. Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was 1.8% v 3.3% previously. EURUSD sold off from 1.22676 to 1.22157. UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was 3.0%, as expected, from 3.1% previously. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was 2.5% v an expected 2.6%, from 2.7% prior. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) came in as expected at 0.4%, from 0.3% prior. Producer Price Index – Output (MoM) n.s.a. (Dec) was 0.4% v an expected 0.3%, from 0.3% previously, which was revised up to 0.4%. Producer Price Index – Output (YoY) n.s.a. (Dec) was 3.3% v an expected 2.9%, from 3.0% previously, which was revised up to 3.1%. Producer Price Index – Input (MoM) n.s.a. (Dec) was 0.1% v an expected 0.4%, from 1.8% previously, which was revised down to 1.6%. Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) n.s.a. (Dec) was 4.9% v an expected 5.4%, from 7.3% previously. PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a. (Dec) was 0.3% v an expected 0.2%, from 0.2% previously. PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a. (Dec) was 2.5% v an expected 2.3%, from 2.2% previously. GBPUSD sold off from 1.37826 to 1.37416 after the data release. Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence (Jan) was released, coming in at 1.8%. The previous reading was 3.6%. This release sent the AUDUSD pair higher from 0.79636 to 0.79737. Japanese Machinery Orders (YoY) (Nov) was released at 4.1% with a consensus of -0.7% expected, from 2.3% prior. Machinery Orders (MoM) (Nov) was released at 5.7% with a consensus of -1.4% expected, from 5.0% previously. USDJPY moved higher from 110.288 to test 110.427 after this data release. Australian Home Loans was released at 2.1% v a consensus of -0.2%, from -0.6% previously. Investment Lending for Homes (Nov) was 1.5% from 1.6% prior. AUDUSD stepped higher to test 0.79990. Chinese FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) (Dec) was 7.9% from 9.8% previously. EURUSD is down -0.26% overnight, trading around 1.22280. USDJPY is up 0.35% in early session trading at around 110.833. GBPUSD is down -0.15% to trade around 1.37701. USDCAD is …

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16 января, 10:27

Japanese Yen Reaches Key Psychological Area Against the Dollar

USDJPY found support ahead of 110.000 yesterday, with a low of 110.330. The area is a key psychological support for the pair finding buyers to reverse the recent bout of selling. A drop below the 110.000 level has prompted intervention from authorities in the past, as the countries’ Equities Indices come under pressure from the exchange rate. UK MPC Member Teneyro gave a speech entitled ‘The Fall in Productivity Growth: Causes and Implications’ at the Queen Mary University of London on Monday evening. She said that there was ample time before BOE would need to change rates again. She expects a couple of more rate hikes over the next three years if the economy performs as expected. Productivity risks might be skewed to the upside. She also made the comment that there are huge problems with the way GDP is measured and that it is unclear how productive self-employed workers are. Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. (Nov) was released with the number coming in at €26.3B. The expected number was €28.2B from €18.9B prior. Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. (Nov) was €22.5B v an expected €22.3B, from €19.0B previously. EURUSD moved higher from 1.22600 to 1.22963 after the data was released. New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q4) was in at -12% from 5% previously. Also released was Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) coming in as expected at 0.5, from 1.2% previously, that was revised up to 1.3%. Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) were 3.3% v a prior reading of 4.3%. Japanese All Industry Activity Index (MoM)(Nov) was 1.1% v 0.4% expected, from 0.3% previously, which was revised down to 0.2%. USDJPY moved higher from 110.695 to 110.934 following the data release. EURUSD is up 0.05% overnight, trading around 1.22693. USDJPY is up 0.27% in early session trading at around 110.819. GBPUSD is up 0.03% to trade around 1.37939. USDCAD is down -0.02%, trading around 1.24253. Gold is up 0.06% in early morning trading at around $1,340.39. WTI is down -0.39% this morning, trading around $64.41. Major data releases for today: At 07:00, German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Dec) will be released. The consensus is for an unchanged value of 1.6%. Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Dec) is expected to be 0.3% from 0.5% previously. Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was 3.3% previously. EUR pairs may have positions opened or closed due to this data. At 09:30 GMT, UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) is expected out at 3.2% v 3.1% previously. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) is expected unchanged at 2.7%. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) is expected at 0.6% from 0.3% prior. Producer Price Index – Output (MoM) n.s.a. (Dec) is expected at 0.1% from 0.3% previously. Producer Price Index – Output (YoY) n.s.a. (Dec) is expected at 2.8% from 3.0% previously. Producer Price Index – Input (MoM) n.s.a. (Dec) is expected at 0.5% from 1.8% previously. Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) n.s.a. (Dec) is expected at 6.0% from 7.3% previously. PPI Core Output (MoM) …

15 января, 10:22

FxPro Daily Outlook – January 15, 2018

Today is Martin Luther King’s Birthday, which is a Bank Holiday in the United States. As a result, the Economic Calendar is relatively light today. US Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren spoke from San Diego. He made comments about Fed policy and how the policy framework should be updated. He said that further drops in the Jobless rate risk undermining recovery. He also spoke about inflation and said that the Fed could set medium-term goals and inflation ranges, and sited the benefit of targeting the 1.5% to 3.0% inflation range. He laid out the case for the Fed to switch to an adjustable inflation goal within a fixed range. He said that a low and fixed inflation target is a potential problem but lower than expected inflation is not a problem near-term. French Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) (Dec) was released on Friday, coming in at 1.2%. The number was expected to be unchanged at 1.3%. US Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) were released as expected at 0.4%, from 0.8% previously, which was revised up to 0.9%. Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Dec) came in as expected at 0.4%, from 1.0% previously, which was revised up to 1.3%. Retail Sales (Dec) Control Group was 0.3% v an expected 0.4%, from 0.8% prior. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was as expected at 2.1, from 2.2% previously. Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Dec) was 1.8% v an expected 1.7% and 1.7% prior. Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Dec) was 0.3% v an expected 0.2%, from 0.1% previously. EURUSD fell from 1.21482 to 1.21120 after this data release. German Buba President Weidmann spoke at the Ludwig-Erhard summit, in Bavaria on Friday. He said that announcing the end date of QE is justifiable and that full policy normalization would be a long path. He also said that the imminent risk of a change in rates was currently low and that price trends were in line with goals. EURUSD fell from a high of 1.21534 to 1.21216 when the comments were made. The Baker Hughes US Rig Count number was released with the headline number coming in at 752. The prior number last Friday showed that there were 742 Oil rigs in operation. EURUSD is up 0.09% overnight, trading around 1.22140. USDJPY is down -0.15% in early session trading at around 110.830. GBPUSD is up 0.15% to trade around 1.37481. USDCAD is down -0.07%, trading around 1.24473. Gold is up 0.33% in early morning trading at around $1,342.02. WTI is unchanged this morning, trading around $64.35. Major data releases for today: At 07:45 GMT, Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. (Nov) will be released. The expected number is €28.2B from €18.9B prior. Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. (Nov) is expected to be €22.3B v €19.0B previously. EUR pairs will be influenced by this data point. Major data releases for this week: On Tuesday at 09:30 GMT, UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) is expected out at 3.2% v 3.1% previously. …

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12 января, 10:27

Fed’s Dudley ‘’Warns of Overheating Risks’’

US FED’s William Dudley spoke on Thursday at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association in New York. “Over the longer term I am considerably more cautious about the economic outlook,” said Dudley, “Keeping the economy on a sustainable path may become more challenging,” due to the risk of ‘’overheating’’. He made the point that there is a strong case to keep gradually raising rates and that the forecast for 3 rate hikes this year is a reasonable starting point. He said it could go faster or slower depending on data and he wants to achieve 2% inflation before shifting goal higher. He also said that ‘’Tax cuts will come at a cost, pose challenges for Fed.’’ Tax cuts, he said, made him considerably more cautious about the longer-term economic outlook and the cuts give a short-term boost to the economy but pose serious long-term risks. He expects 2.5% to 2.75% GDP growth, inflation hitting 2% in the medium term and unemployment down below 4% in 2018. Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Nov) was released with a number of 3.2% from a consensus of 3.0% and a prior of 3.7%, revised up to 3.9%. Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Nov) was 1.0% v an expected 0.8%, from 0.2% previously, which was revised up to 0.4%. EURUSD moved marginally lower on the data to 1.19387. Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts were published at 12:30 GMT on Thursday. The ECB said they could consider a ‘’gradual shift’’ in guidance from early 2018. Inflation was an ongoing concern to the ECB and ‘’the relative importance of guidance on rates will increase as inflation rises.’’ They said that a transition to a broader forward guidance, comprising various dimensions of policy stance was warranted and they would revisit the whole issue in early 2018. On the policy side, they had ‘’ increased confidence that inflation pressures would take hold ‘’ and further easing of financial conditions are not regarded as warranted. They saw comfort in wage dynamics but inflation is still a concern. EURUSD soared higher from 1.19364 to reach a high of 1.20587. US Continuing Jobless Claims (Dec 29) were 1.867M v an expected 1.915M, from a previous number of 1.914M that was revised down to 1.902M. Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 5) was 261K v an expected 245K, with a prior reading of 250K. USDJPY moved lower after this data release from 111.616 to 111.387. US Monthly Budget Statement (Dec) came in at $-23B v an estimated $-40B, from a previous $-139B. New Zealand Building Permits s.a. (MoM) (Nov) was released as 10.8%. The previous reading was -9.6%, but this was revised down to -10.4%. Japanese Foreign Investment in Japan stocks (Jan 5) came out as ¥597.9B. ¥76.2B was the previous number but this was revised to ¥76.1B. Foreign Bond Investment (Jan 5) came out at ¥173.0B, with the prior number of ¥434.2B revised to ¥427.4B. Chinese Imports (YoY) (Dec) were 4.5% v a consensus of 13.0%, from 17.7% previously. Exports (YoY) (Dec) came …

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11 января, 10:25

Markets Move on China News

During yesterday’s trading session headlines broke that China would reduce or halt its purchase of US Treasuries. This set off moves in Currencies, Commodities, Bonds and Stock. Gold reached a high of 1327.5, the US 10-Year got to a high of 2.59%, SPX 500 fell to 2736.50, while USDJPY fell to 111.285. GBPUSD jumped up to 1.35617, EURUSD rose to 1.20176, while even pairs that would seem to be unaffected by such a move, like EURGBP, rose to 0.88720. Overnight a Chinese government source corrected the situation by saying the report could have been based on wrong information. The source said that ‘China has been diversifying its FX reserves investments, and China’s investments in US Treasuries is market-driven.’ Much of the moves following the initial headline have been reversed or partially reversed, with the US 10-Year, for example, now at 2.531%. UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) was released with the number coming in at 0.4% v an expected reading of 0.3%, from a prior of 0.0% that was revised to 0.3%. Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) was 2.5% v a consensus reading of 1.8%, with a prior of 3.6% that was revised up to 4.3%. Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov) was 0.4% v an expected 0.3%, with a previous reading of 0.1% that was revised up to 0.3%. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Nov) was 3.5% v an expected 2.8%, from a prior of 3.9% that was revised up to 4.7%. Traders of GBP pairs will be watching these data points closely. GBPUSD sold off to 1.34814 after this data was released. UK NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Dec) data was released at 0.6% v 0.5% expected. The previous data came in at 0.5% but was revised up to 0.6%. GBPUSD moved higher after the data was published, rising to 1.35391. US 10-Year Note Auction. The rate was 2.59% from previous auction’s interest rate of 2.384%. US FOMC Member Bullard spoke in St Louis, stating that the US economy looks good for 2018. The FED’s inflation miss is starting to look persistent and he doesn’t believe there is a high chance of a US recession. EURUSD is down -0.09% overnight, trading around 1.19380. USDJPY is up 0.38% in early session trading at around 111.847. GBPUSD is down -0.10% to trade around 1.34905. USDCAD is up 0.05%, trading around 1.25511. Gold is up 0.10% in early morning trading at around $1,317.90. WTI is down -0.06%, trading around $63.37. Major data releases for today: At 09:30 GMT, UK BOE Credit Conditions Survey will be released. GBP pairs will be influenced by this data point. At 10:00 GMT, Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Nov) will be released, with the consensus pointing to a value of 3.0%, from a prior of 3.7%. Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Nov) is expected at 0.8% from 0.2% previously. The EUR may be moved by this data. At 12:30 GMT, Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be published. EUR crosses could react to this data. At 13:30 GMT, US Continuing Jobless Claims (Dec …

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10 января, 10:24

Japanese Yen Continues to Extend Gains

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After yesterday’s surprise move by the Bank of Japan to reduce bond purchases, the Yen has continued its move against other currencies. GBPJPY, for example, is down -0.65%, trading at 151.556, adding to yesterday’s move. Stops are being triggered in an unwind of the recent trend. Even the Japanese stock market is under pressure, with the Japan 225 down -0.36%, trading around 23777.00 for a second consecutive down day. Chinese Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) came in at 1.8% v 1.9% expected with a prior of 1.7%. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was 4.9% v 4.8% expected with the previous number of 5.8%. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) came in at 0.3% v 0.4% expected from a previous of 0.0%. German Trade Balance s.a. (Nov) came out at 22.3B v an expected 20.9B, from a previous 19.9B. Exports (MoM) (Nov) were 4.1% v an expected 1.2%, from -0.4% previously that was revised up to -0.3%. Imports (MoM) (Nov) were 2.3% v 0.8% expected, from 1.8% prior. Current Account n.s.a. (Nov) was 25.4B v 25.5B consensus, from a previous of 18.1B. EURUSD moved higher after the data to test 1.19707 but sellers took price lower subsequently. Swiss Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) came in at -0.2% compared to a consensus of -2.5% and the previous number was -3.0%, but this was revised up to -2.6%. USDCHF moved higher when the data was published to test resistance at 0.88335. Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Nov) was as expected at 8.7% v a prior of 8.8%. EURGBP sold off from 0.88254 to 0.88084 following the data release. Canadian Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Dec) was in at 217K v an expected 212.5K, from a prior of 252.2K which was revised to 251.7K. USDCAD sold off from 1.24438 to 1.24243 in reaction to this. EURUSD is down -0.09% overnight, trading around 1.19253. USDJPY is down -0.43% in the early session trading at around 112.157. EURJPY is down -0.51% this morning, trading around 133.754. GBPUSD is down -0.20% to trade around 1.35138. USDCAD is up 0.08%, trading around 1.24731. Gold is down -0.23% in early morning trading at around $1,309.37. WTI is down -0.09%, trading around $63.35. Major data releases for today: At 09:30 GMT, UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) will be released with an expected reading of 0.3% from a prior of 0.0%. Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) consensus reading is 1.8%, with a prior of 3.6%. Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov) is expected to be 0.3%, with a previous reading of 0.1%. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Nov) is expected at 2.8% from a prior of 3.9%. Traders of GBP pairs will be watching these data points closely. Tentative – German 10-year Bond Auction. The previous auction’s Interest Rate was 0.3%. EUR pairs may react to this data. At 13:00 GMT, UK NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Dec) data will be released. The previous data came in at 0.5%. This data attempts to predict the Government’s released data. Tentative – US 10-Year Note Auction. The previous auction’s interest rate was 2.384%. …

09 января, 10:24

BOJ Tapers Bond Purchases

Earlier today the Bank of Japan announced that it would taper its Japanese Government Bond purchases. The ‘taper’ reduces the size of 10 to 25-year debt from ¥200 billion to ¥190 billion and +25 year bonds from ¥90 billion to ¥80 billion. It’s unclear if this will be carried through to the next purchase or if it is a one day only event. Inflation has yet to meet targets and there is no mention of a policy change from the BOJ. Today’s reductions are small but had a big impact on USDJPY which fell from 113.153 to a low of 112.493 overnight. Swiss Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (Dec) was out as expected, unchanged from the previous value of 0.8%. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) was released at 0.0% v -0.1% expected, from a prior reading of -0.1%. USDCHF was higher from 0.97685 to 0.97831. Eurozone Business Climate (Dec) was released at 1.66 v an expected 1.51, while the previous number was 1.49. Also at this time, Consumer Confidence (Dec) was as expected, unchanged at 0.5. Industrial Confidence (Dec) was 9.2 v 8.4 expected, while its prior was revised from 8.2 to 8.1. Services Sentiment (Dec) was 18.4 v 16.5 expected, while 16.3 previously was revised up to 16.4. Economic Sentiment Indicator (Dec) was 116.0 v an expected 114.8, from 114.6 previously. EURUSD rallied from 1.19892 to 1.20032 after this data release. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey Indicator data was released at 15:30 GMT and came in at 2.49 v an expected 0.83. Future Sales were 8.0 v 19.0 prior. Data points were positive overall and USDCAD rose to a high of 1.24480 but then fell to a low of 1.24000. US Consumer Credit Change (Nov) was $27.95B from an expected $19.75B and the prior of $20.52B was revised up to $20.53B. USDJPY moved higher to 113.122 upon release. EURUSD is down -0.09% overnight, trading around 1.19568. USDJPY is down -0.35% in the early session trading at around 112.690. GBPUSD is up 0.04% to trade around 1.35681. USDCAD is down -0.07%, trading around 1.24100. Gold is down -0.15% in early morning trading at around $1,318.40. WTI is up 0.34%, trading around $62.15. Major data releases for today: At 07:00 GMT, German Trade Balance s.a. (Nov) is expected to be 20.9B from a previous 19.9B. Exports (MoM) (Nov) are expected at 1.2% from -0.4% previously. Imports (MoM) (Nov) are expected at 0.8% from 1.8% prior. Current Account n.s.a. (Nov) is expected at 25.5B v a prior reading of 18.1B. EUR pairs may react to this data. At 08:00 GMT, ECB Non-monetary policy’s meeting will take place. Any headlines from this meeting will be scrutinised for advance notice of policy decisions. At 08:00 GMT, Swiss Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) will come out. The consensus is -2.5% and the previous number was -3.0%. At 10:00 GMT, Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Nov) is expected at 8.7% v a prior of 8.8%. Euro pairs could experience movement if the data differs from the consensus. At …

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08 января, 10:22

Canadian Data Centre Stage

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Canadian Jobs reports came in strongly for the second month in a row, far exceeding expectations and leading to strong moves in CAD crosses. Unemployment is at a low of 5.7% and focus is shifting today towards the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey at 15:30 GMT. Traders will look for any indicators that could influence a change in monetary policy with regards to rate hikes, in view of the strong labour market, during the next BOC monetary policy meeting on the 17th of January. Eurozone Consumer Prices Index – Core (YoY) (Dec) was out at 1.1% v an expected 1.0%, from a previous 0.9% that was revised up to 1.1%. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was 1.4%, as expected, from a prior 1.5%. EURUSD bottomed at 1.20404 and rallied to 1.20550 after the data. US Non-Farm Payrolls (Dec) was a miss to the downside when they were released. 148K new jobs were created from an expected 190K, compared to 228K previous that was revised up to 252K. The Unemployment Rate (Dec) was as expected at 4.1%, unchanged from the prior reading. EURUSD rose from 1.20445 to 1.20825 but then sold back down to 1.20203 after the data release. Canadian Unemployment Rate (Dec) was 5.7% v an expected 6.0%, from a prior of 5.9%. Net Change in Employment (Dec) was 78.6K v an expected 1.0K, with a previous read of 79.5K. USDCAD started to selloff before the release from 1.25118. This move lower accelerated once the data was out and price bottomed at 1.23542. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) was in at 55.9 v an expected 57.6, from a prior of 57.4. Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec) were 1.3% v an expected 1.1%, with a previous reading of -0.1%, which was revised up to 0.4%. USDJPY fell from 113.253 to 113.080 upon the release. Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Counts were released with a headline number of 742 from last week’s 747. WTI Oil extended its gains from $61.45 to $61.57 after the event. EURUSD is down -0.09% overnight, trading around 1.20162. USDJPY is up 0.18% in early session trading at around 113.216. GBPUSD is down -0.09% to trade around 1.35507. USDCAD is down -0.06%, trading around 1.24043. AUDUSD is down -0.18% this morning, trading around 0.78446. Gold is unchanged in early morning trading at around $1,318.40. WTI is down -0.08%, trading around $61.51. Major data releases for today: At 08.00 GMT, Swiss Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (Dec) is expected unchanged at 0.8%. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) will also be released, with a prior value of 1.5%. Swiss Franc pairs may see price movement if the data released varies from the consensus. At 10:00 GMT, Eurozone Business Climate (Dec) will be released, the previous was 1.49. Also at this time, Consumer Confidence (Dec) is expected to be unchanged at 0.5. Industrial Confidence (Dec) was 8.2 previously. Services Sentiment (Dec) was 16.3 previously. Economic Sentiment Indicator (Dec) is expected to be 115.0 v 114.6 prior. EUR crosses could experience volatility around …

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05 января, 10:40

Australian Trade Balance Misses Expectations

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Australian Trade Balance for November came in very wide of the mark at -628M v an expected 915M. The previous reading was revised down to -302M from 105M. This was the second month in a row where there was a substantial miss to the downside. AUDUSD moved lower from 0.78679 to 0.78429. Eurozone Markit Services PMI (Dec) data was out Wednesday morning, coming in at 56.6 v an expected number of 56.5, with the previous reading coming in at 56.5. Markit PMI Composite (Dec) was also due out at this time, coming in at 58.1 v an expected number of 58.0, with a prior of 58.0. EURUSD moved higher from 1.20247 after the release of the data. UK Markit Services PMI (Dec) was 54.2 v 53.8 expected, with a prior number of 53.8. Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) (Dec) came in as expected at £4.9B, with a previous reading of £4.8B. Mortgage Approvals (Nov) was 65.139K v 64.000K expected, from a prior 64.887K. Consumer Credit (Nov) was £1.400B v £1.500B expected, with the prior figure being revised to £1.362B. GPBUSD found support around 1.35400 and moved up to 1.35555. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change jumped to 250K v an expected 190K, and the prior value was revised down to 185K from 190K. USDJPY gapped up to 112.745 from 112.622 on this data release and continued up to 112.838. US Continuing Jobless Claims (Dec 22) was 1.914M, from an expected number of 1.925M, with the prior of 1.943M revised to 1.951M. Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 29) was 250K v an expected 240K, with a previous read of 245K revised to 247K. US Markit PMI Composite (Dec) was 54.1 v an expected 53.7, from a prior of 53.0. Markit Services PMI (Dec) was 53.7 from an expected 52.4, with a previous reading of 52.4. Stocks rallied higher after these data points, with the Dow Jones Index moving higher from 25000. US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Dec 29) was released with a headline number of -7.419M v -5.182M expected, from a previous -4.609M. This data release was delayed due to New Year’s festivities. WTI Oil rallied back to $62.00 after the news. EURUSD is unchanged overnight, trading around 1.20628. USDJPY is up 0.32% in the early session trading at around 113.099. GBPUSD is up 0.11% to trade around 1.35635. AUDUSD is down -0.28% this morning, trading around 0.78386. Gold is down -0.33% in early morning trading at around $1,317.75. WTI is down -0.16%, trading around $61.82. Major data releases for today: At 10.00 GMT, Eurozone Consumer Prices Index – Core (YoY) (Dec) is expected at 1.0% from a previous 0.9%. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) is expected at 1.4% from a prior 1.5%. EUR pairs may see price movement if the data released varies from the consensus. At 13:15 GMT, US Non-Farm Payrolls (Dec) is expected at 190K v a prior 228K. This measures the change in the number of employed people in December. The Unemployment Rate (Dec) is expected unchanged at …

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04 января, 10:26

FOMC Backs Gradual Rate Hikes

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Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes were released on Wednesday. Most Fed officials agreed to continue with gradual rate hikes. They highlighted the expected increase in the pace of inflation as one of the reasons to shorten the time between hikes. However, they also highlighted the failure of inflation to increase above 2% as a reason to widen the time period between hikes. The consensus was for inflation to reach 2% and for labour inflation to gradually lift inflation. The medium-term inflation outlook appears little changed and the flatness of the yield curve is not unusual. Several officials were concerned by low inflation. EURUSD sold off to session lows close to 1.20000, while USDJPY rallied from 112.292 to 112.604 after the minutes were released. German Unemployment Rate s.a.(Dec) data came in unchanged at 5.5% v an expected 5.6%. Unemployment Change (Dec) was out at the same time and came in at -29K v an expected -12K, from a prior of -20K. EURUSD was at 1.20420 when the data was released but sold off to 1.20110. UK Construction PMI (Dec) was out at 52.2 v an expected 52.5, from a prior number of 53.1. While still expanding, this data point is much lower compared to the recent highs around 64.0 in 2014. GBPUSD was trading around 1.35925 but slowly sold off to 1.35000 following the release. US ISM Prices Paid (Dec) came in at 69.0 v a consensus of 65.0. The previous reading was 65.5. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) was also out at this time and came in at 59.7 v 58.2 expected, from 58.2 prior. And finally, Construction Spending (MoM) (Nov) was 0.8% v 0.6% expected, from the previous reading of 1.4%, which was revised to 0.9%. USDJPY was at 112.223 before the release but moved higher to 112.495 before pulling back. EURUSD is up 0.14% overnight, trading at around 1.20308. USDJPY is largely unchanged in the early session trading at around 112.539. GBPUSD is up 0.10% to trade around 1.35244. Gold is down -0.21% in early morning trading at around $1,310.14. WTI is up 0.29%, trading at around $62.06. Major data releases for today: At 09.00 GMT, Eurozone Markit Services PMI (Dec) data is expected to be unchanged from the previous reading of 56.5. Markit PMI Composite (Dec) is also due out at this time and is expected to be unchanged at 58. EUR pairs could see price movement if the data released varies from the consensus. At 09.30 GMT, UK Markit Services PMI (Dec) is out and expected to be unchanged from the previous value of 53.8. Also at this time, Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) (Dec) is expected at £4.9B v a previous reading of £4.8B. Mortgage Approvals (Nov) is expected at 64.000K v a prior 64.575K. Consumer Credit (Nov) is expected to be £1.500B v £1.451B previously. GBP crosses may experience volatility if the number differs from the expected reading. At 13:15 GMT, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to come in unchanged at 190K. …

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03 января, 12:09

Record Highs for Major US Equity Indices, North Korea to Reopen Communication Channel with South Korea

Yesterday’s US trading session ended positively with the S&P500 equity index closing at a new record high, while Dow Jones and Nasdaq100 also gained and ended up close to all-time highs. Currency markets were mainly flat during the Asian session, commodity currencies AUD, NZD, and CAD retreated slightly against the U.S. Dollar. At the start of the European session, EUR is trading close to 1.2000 against the U.S. Dollar, while GBP is trading close to 1.3600 level in anticipation of the construction PMI data release, which is scheduled for today and could impact this currency pair to some degree. The geopolitical front is dominated by reports that North Korea will reopen a cross-border communication channel with South Korea, according to officials in Seoul. The proposed communication would aim to establish formal dialogue about sending a North Korean delegation to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. This is possibly seen as another sign of easing tensions between north and south. German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec) came in unchanged at 63.3, as expected. Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec) data was also unchanged at 60.6, as expected. Last month’s number was the highest this decade, showing strength in the economy. EURUSD moved higher on the data from 1.20450 to 1.20776. UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec) was lower than expected at 56.3 v 58.0, with a previous number of 58.2. EURGBP moved higher from 0.88853 to 0.89180 after the data was released. Canadian Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec) came in at 54.7, higher than the consensus of 54.5, and the previous value of 54.4. USDCAD sold off after the release to retest 1.2500. US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec) came in at 55.1, slightly above the consensus, which predicted an unchanged value of 55.0. USDJPY moved lower from 112.264 to 112.093 before recovering. EURUSD is down 0.20% overnight, trading at around 1.2033. USDJPY is almost flat 0.02% in early session trading at around 112.30. GBPUSD is up 0.04% to trade around 1.3595. Gold is down 0.19% in early morning trading at around $1,315.00. WTI is up 0.04%, trading around $60.40. Major data releases for today: At 08.15 GMT, Swiss Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) is due for release, with the prior number coming in at -3%. CHF pairs will be under scrutiny if the number is wide of the mark. At 09.00 GMT, Eurozone Unemployment Rate s.a.(Dec) data is expected to be 5.5%, with the previous reading coming in at 5.6%. Unemployment Change (Dec) is also due out at this time, expected to be -12K with a prior of -18K. EUR pairs could see price movement if the data released varies from the consensus. At 09.30 GMT, UK Construction PMI (Dec) is out and expected at 52.7, with a prior number of 53.1. GBP crosses may experience volatility if the number differs from the expected reading. At 15:00 GMT, US ISM Prices Paid (Dec) is due out with a consensus of 65.0 expected. The previous reading was 65.5. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) is also out at this time, …