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18 мая, 09:39

NAFTA Deadline for US Congress Passes Without a Deal

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Overnight US Trade Representative Lighthizer issued a statement saying that the U.S., Mexico and Canada are “nowhere close to a deal”. This was counter to the statement by Canadian PM Trudeau yesterday who said “We’re very close” when asked about progress. The US had set a deadline for NAFTA to be agreed on by yesterday, in order to enable Congress to vote on the deal. USDCAD moved higher from 1.27520 up to 1.28213 and extended to 1.28459 early this morning. It has since dropped back a little to 1.28211. After the release of Japanese CPI earlier, USDJPY touched 111.000 on the assumption that the BOJ will have to maintain policy easing for longer. US Continuing Jobless Claims (May 4) was 1.707M versus an expected 1.780M, against 1.790M previously, which was revised up to 1.794M. Initial Jobless Claims (May 11) was 222K versus an expected 215K, against 211K previously. This data is showing a continuing increase in the number of new claims but continuing claims have stabilized somewhat. Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Survey (May) was 34.4 versus an expected 21.0, against 23.2 previously. This data is now at its highest level since May 2017, after yesterday’s reading outperformed estimates. USDJPY moved higher from 110.684 to 110.853 after this data release. Japanese National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) came in at 0.6% against an expected 0.7% from 1.1% previously. National CPI Ex-Food, Energy (YoY) (Apr) came in as expected at 0.4%, from 0.5% previously. National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (Apr) came in at 0.7% against an expected 0.8%, from 0.9% previously. This data has fallen from the highs set over the previous couple of readings and is showing a mild drop in inflation. USDJPY rose from 110.793 to 110.986 after the data came out. EURUSD is up 0.15% overnight, trading around 1.18106. USDJPY is up 0.12% in early session trading at around 110.884. GBPUSD is up 0.02% this morning, trading around 1.35173. Gold is down -0.09% in early morning trading at around $1,289.60. WTI is down -0.04% this morning, trading around $71.72.

17 мая, 09:24

Reports UK is Prepared to Stay Within EU Customs Union Send GBP Higher

British Media has reported that the UK is to inform the EU that they are willing to stay in the EU Customs Union beyond 2021. The Government agreed on a new “backstop” earlier this week to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. This came after rejecting earlier EU proposals ahead of the looming June deadline. This was despite objections from Foreign Secretary Johnson and Environment Secretary Gove. GBP has rallied well and is the strongest currency as we approach the European open, up from 1.34554 to 1.35687 against the USD. EURGBP is down to 0.87206 from yesterday’s high of 0.87823. The USD has weakened somewhat, with EURUSD reaching a high of 1.18373 overnight. Eurozone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Apr) came in as expected, unchanged at 0.7%. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Apr) was also as expected at 0.3%, from 1.0% previously. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) was also as expected, unchanged at 1.2%. Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (Apr) was as expected at 0.2%, from 1.4% prior. CPI data is showing a decrease in the monthly figures, with yearly figures remaining in line with the previous reading. EURUSD fell from 1.18376 to a low of 1.17662 after this data release. US Housing Starts (MoM) (Apr) were 1.287M against an expected 1.310M, from a previous number of 1.319M, which was revised up to 1.336M. Building Permits (MoM) (Apr) were 1.352M against an expected 1.350M, with the prior reading of 1.354M, which was revised up to 1.377M. This data shows a decrease in activity from previous readings. These data points have been recovering since hitting lows of 0.46M and 0.49M respectively after the financial crisis. GBPUSD halted its decent at 1.34668 when the data was released. US Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr) was released, coming in at 0.7%. The consensus was for 0.6% from 0.5% previously, which was revised up to 0.7%. This measure rebounded strongly, to reach the highest reading since December 2014 in March, after slipping below the zero line previously. Capacity Utilization (Apr) was also released at this time, with a reading of 78.0% against the expectation of 78.4%, from 78.0% previously, which was revised down to 77.6%. The readings came in line with previous data, with capacity failing to create a new high and missing expectations. USDJPY rose from 110.056 to 110.341 after the release. EURUSD is up 0.10% overnight, trading around 1.18185. USDJPY is down -0.10% in early session trading at around 110.284. GBPUSD is up 0.52% this morning, trading around 1.3560. Gold is up 0.18% in early morning trading at around $1,292.98. WTI is up 0.31% this morning, trading around $71.86.

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16 мая, 09:20

USD Strength Leads Currencies to Break Key Levels

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Japanese GDP fell to -0.2% from 0.0% expected for the quarterly Q1 figure and -0.6% from 0.0% expected for the yearly figure. This drop was forecasted, with an expectation for a recovery to higher numbers going forward into Q2. USDJPY didn’t react much and is still trading in the same range around 110.275, after breaking above 110.000 yesterday. FX, in general, was stable overnight after some key levels were broken yesterday, with EURUSD falling back under 1.19000 and GBPUSD falling under 1.35000 on USD strength. Gold took a tumble under strong support at 1300.00, triggering bearish technical patterns. Equity markets also fell yesterday, with the US 500 dropping to test support at 2700.00. UK Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Mar) came in at 2.9% as expected, from 2.8% previously. Claimant Count Change (Apr) was 31.2K against an expected 7.5K, from a previous reading of 11.6K, which was revised up to 15.7K. ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Apr) was as expected, unchanged at 4.2%. Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Mar) was as expected at 2.6%, from 2.8% previously. Claimant Count Rate (Mar) was 2.5% against 2.4% previously. Wage growth was expected to continue to tick up after stabilizing at 2.5% and moving up in February but failed to do so, falling below last month’s reading of 2.8%. The unemployment rate is at multi-decade lows, which is when wage growth would normally be higher as competition to attract workers takes hold. The BOE will study wage data for any indication of a change, in case they need to change their hawkish tone. GBPUSD moved higher from 1.35276 to 1.35582 after this data release. Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q1) was as expected, unchanged at 0.4%. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q1) was also as expected, unchanged at 2.5%. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Mar) was released at 3.0% against a consensus of 3.7%, from a prior of 2.9%, which was revised down to 2.6%. Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Mar) was 0.5% against an expected 0.6%, from -0.8% previously, which was revised down to -0.9%. The monthly figure dipped to -1.0% in February but rebounded last month, with a much stronger rebound this time, marginally missing expectations. EURUSD moved higher from 1.19160 to 1.19290 after this data release, but then sold off later in the day. US Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) were as expected at 0.3%, from 0.6% previously, which was revised up to 0.8%. Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Apr) were 0.3% against an expected 0.5%, from 0.2% prior, which was revised up to 0.4%. Retail Sales Control Group (Apr) came in as expected at 0.4%, from 0.4% prior, which was revised up to 0.5%. The sales slipped after last month’s beat, which was revised higher yesterday, with the current readings coming in as expected. USDJPY broke higher from 109.913 to reach a high for the day of 110.341 after this data release. EURUSD is up 0.03% overnight, trading around 1.18418. USDJPY is down -0.08% in early session trading at around 110.253. GBPUSD …

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15 мая, 09:18

Chinese Retail Sales Data Registers Lowest Reading in Over a Decade

China was one of the top stories overnight, as Moody’s released their analysis on the China/US trade war. They believe that China is unable to meet the US request to reduce its trade surplus “by $200B by 2020 without causing significant disruptions to its economy”. They also believe that this measure would be incompatible with the Chinese government’s policy objectives. Chinese Retail sales were released earlier at 9.4%, missing the expected 10.0% and the previous 10.1% reading. This is the lowest reading for this data in over a decade. Industrial Production came in at 7.0%, beating expectations of 6.3%, and the previous 6.0% reading. USDCNY is up overnight from 6.3385 to 6.3486. German Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1) was 0.3% against an expected 0.4%, from 0.6% prior. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1) was 1.6% against an expected 1.8%, from 2.3% prior. Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (Q1) was released with a reading of 2.3%, against a consensus number of 2.4% and a prior of 2.9%. This data shows a continued decline in German GDP numbers. The RBA released its Meeting Minutes earlier this morning, with the board agreeing there was not a case for a near-term move in policy. They also agreed that, given the current circumstances, the next rate move would likely be up rather than down. Unemployment and inflation are likely to show only a gradual improvement. AUDUSD started to rally from a low of 0.75216 in the lead-up to the release, then peaked at 0.75372 after the event. It has since fallen to a fresh low of 0.75069. EURUSD is down -0.05% overnight, trading around 1.19211. USDJPY is up 0.19% in early session trading at around 109.864. GBPUSD is down -0.04% this morning, trading around 1.35497. Gold is down -0.11% in early morning trading at around $1,311.89. WTI is down -0.36% this morning, trading around $70.99.

14 мая, 09:24

Iran Deal Back in the Headlines as Potential Fallout Comes to Light

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Following on from the US withdrawal from the Iran Deal, UK PM May reaffirmed her commitment to ensuring the deal is upheld. She spoke via phone with the Iranian President yesterday, in advance of a meeting of the UK, France, Germany and Iran in Brussels tomorrow. Over the weekend, US National Security Advisor John Bolton said that US sanctions on European companies that maintain business dealings with Iran were possible. It remains to be seen if this threat will be upheld, which would be a further blow to US/European relations. EURUSD is higher at 1.19600, having risen as far as 1.19690 earlier. Elsewhere, Canadian PM Trudeau has said he is optimistic a NAFTA agreement can be reached. US Lawmakers want a deal by Thursday in order to give enough time to get it through Congress. USDCAD dropped to 1.27693 after closing at 1.27985 on Friday. Canadian Unemployment Rate (Apr) was as expected, unchanged at 5.8%. Participation Rate (Apr) was 65.4% versus an expected 65.5%, against 65.5% prior. Net Change in Employment (Apr) was -1.1K versus an expected 17.4K, against a prior 32.3K. USDCAD moved up from 1.27321 to 1.27764 after this data release. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (May) was 98.8 versus an expected 98.5, against a previous 98.8. USDJPY rose from 109.256 to 109.328 following this data release. Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Counts was released with a headline number of 844 from last week’s number of 834. As this number creeps higher, more and more rigs are coming into operation, increasing the supply of oil and adding downward pressure on prices. WTI Oil fell from $71.37 to $70.41 after this data release. EURUSD is up 0.18% overnight, trading around 1.19597. USDJPY is up 0.03% in early session trading at around 109.395. GBPUSD is up 0.17% this morning, trading around 1.35607. USDCAD is down -0.03% overnight, currently trading around 1.27877. Gold is up 0.09% in early morning trading at around $1,319.99. WTI is down -0.13% this morning, trading around $70.43.

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11 мая, 09:19

Markets Steady Ahead of European Open

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After further increases in stock markets yesterday, the market is pausing and consolidating ahead of European trading. Asian equity markets are in the green, trading up around 1% but Chinese markets are lagging due to trade tensions with the US. Dovish comments from BOE Governor Carney and soft US CPI data yesterday led to a risk-on mood in markets. Lower inflation is a key driver at the moment, with markets fearing any move higher in rates. USDJPY has slipped lower from its second test of the 110.000 level, as US 10-Year yields hang just under the 3% mark, at 2.97%. Spot US Oil is off its high from yesterday of $71.80, trading around $71.26. UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) was 2.9% versus an expected 3.1%, against a previous 2.2%, which was revised down to 2.1%. Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) was 0.1% versus an expected 0.2%, against 0.1% previously. This reading came in higher than last month but again failed to meet expectations. Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Mar) was 2.9% versus an expected 2.9%, against 2.5% previously. Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) was -0.1% versus an expected -0.2%, against -0.2% previously. GBPUSD moved higher from 1.35268 to 1.36170 after this data release. The Bank of England’s Interest Rate Decision resulted in rates remaining unchanged at 0.5%. The BOE Minutes, BOE Quarterly Inflation Report and the Monetary Policy Statement were also released at the same time. The BOE Asset Purchase Facility remained unchanged at £435B. BOE Governor Mark Carney led the Press Conference where he continually repeated that he was confident in the economy but any hikes would be “limited and gradual”. The BOE is in “wait and see mode”, with a focus on Q2 data. GBPUSD fell from 1.35951 to a low of 1.34900 during this event. US Continuing Jobless Claims (Apr 27) were 1.790M versus an expected 1.778M, against 1.756M previously, which was revised up to 1.760M. Initial Jobless Claims (May 4) was 211K versus an expected 218K, against 211K previously. This data is showing a continuing increase in the number of people who are jobless. US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) data was released, coming in as expected at 2.5% against 2.4% previously. Consumer Price Index Ex-Food & Energy (YoY) (Apr) data was released, missing the expected reading of 2.2% and matching the previous 2.1% reading. Consumer Price Index Ex-Food & Energy (MoM) (Apr) came in at 0.1% versus an expected reading of 0.2%, against 0.2% previously. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Apr) data was released coming in at 0.2% versus an expected reading of 0.3%, against -0.1% previously. Consumer Price Index Core s.a. (Apr) data came in at 256.450 versus an expected reading of 256.899, against 256.200 previously. These data points will provide an updated measure of the effect of inflation on consumers. Inflation is one of the main drivers of market sentiment in the US currently. The expectation was for an increase in consumer prices, with most data matching or falling marginally short of those expectations. USDJPY fell from 109.593 …

10 мая, 09:27

RBNZ Leaves Rates on Hold and Lowers Inflation Forecasts

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold at 1.75% earlier with a shift to a more dovish position, adding that the direction of the next rate move is very finely balanced. The Bank lowered its inflation forecast and lengthened its inflation target timeframe. It expects CPI at 1.6% by June 2019, revised lower from the previous 1.8%. In the press conference, Governor Orr said that inflation had surprised to the downside for some time and that this was a concern, which was why the bank was keeping monetary policy expansionary. NZDUSD fell from 0.69757 to lows of 0.69087 in response. In other news, overnight BOJ Governor Kuroda said that the bank will continue its powerful monetary easing and that it is too early to lay out conditions for exiting easy policy. USDJPY moved higher from 109.628 to 109.831. US Producer Price Index Ex-Food and Energy (YoY) (Apr) was 2.3% against an expected 2.4%, from a previous reading of 2.7%. Producer Price Index (MoM) (Apr) was 0.1% against an expected 0.2%, from 0.3% previously. Producer Price Index Ex-Food and Energy (MoM) (Apr) was as expected at, against a previous reading of 0.3%. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) was 2.6% against an expected 2.8%, from 3.0% previously. The monthly readings came in as expected, slightly softer than the previous readings. The yearly readings are showing bigger percentage declines, indicating a fall in consumer inflation. GBPUSD hit a high of 1.36017 before dropping back to 1.35797 following this data release. Canadian Building Permits (MoM) (Mar) were 3.1% against an expected 2.0%, from a previous -2.6%, which was revised down to -2.8%. This data exceeded expectations but the metric is showing smaller advances and declines compared with historic standards. USDCAD tested support at 1.28692 before hitting a high of 1.28992 as a result of this data release. US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (May 4) data came in at -2.197M against an expected draw of -1.167M, from a build of 6.218M last week. This data surprised to the upside last week, exceeding the expected build of 1.000M, however, this time the draw was bigger than expected. Oil markets are in focus at the moment after the US withdrew from the Iran Deal yesterday and this data release may add further volatility to the mix. WTI spiked to $71.21 before falling to support at $70.60 and rebounding higher. EURUSD is up 0.08% overnight, trading around 1.18600. USDJPY is up 0.07% in early session trading at around 109.816. GBPUSD is up 0.14% this morning, trading around 1.35640. USDCAD is down -0.12% overnight, currently trading around 1.28369. Gold is up 0.10% in early morning trading at around $1,313.72. WTI is up 0.43% this morning, trading around $71.61.

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09 мая, 09:21

Oil Moves Higher as Trump Withdraws from Iran Deal

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Spot Oil prices are higher overnight after the US withdrew from the Iran Deal yesterday. US WTI bottomed at $67.56 yesterday and is now currently trading at $70.53. US President Trump has long said that the deal was “no good” and part of his election campaign was to end US participation in the agreement. The other signatories of the deal have expressed their willingness to maintain the agreement with Iran in a move that isolates the US. Whether the withdrawal is part of a negotiation tactic by the President remains to be seen and it will depend on the outcome of the Iranian response, with Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker saying that the country has no obligation now to honour the commitments of the agreement. The Australian Budget was released yesterday. The budget contained a series of tax cuts aimed at lower income taxpayers and forecasted a drop in the deficit from 20.5B to 14.5B. The expectation is for the budget to have a small surplus in 2019/20 of 2.2B. AUDUSD continued to fall from 0.75181 to 0.74352 during this release. Canadian Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Apr) were released and came in at 214K against an expected 220K, from a previous 225K last month. This data is performing strongly despite the decline this month. The previous three readings beat expectations but this miss breaks the winning streak. The data showed a drop in single detached dwellings and a rise in multiple unit dwellings. USDCAD dropped from a high of 1.29838 to 1.29633 as a result of this data. US JOLTS Job Openings (Mar) was released with a headline number of 6.550M against an expected 6.101M, from 6.052M previously, which was revised up to 6.078M. This metric exceeded forecasts and the previous high of 6.31M reached in March, showing job creation is strong and the labour market is dynamic. GBPUSD fell to a low of 1.34843 but turned from there to trade higher for the rest of the day. EURUSD is down -0.13% overnight, trading around 1.18490. USDJPY is up 0.36% in early session trading at around 109.514. GBPUSD is down -0.14% this morning, trading around 1.35275. USDCAD is up 0.04% overnight, currently trading around 1.29527. Gold is down -0.25% in early morning trading at around $1,311.10. WTI is up 0.69% this morning, trading around $70.55.

08 мая, 09:19

Oil at Four-Year High Ahead of US President’s Iran Deal Announcement

During yesterday’s trading session Crude Oil WTI rose above $70 for the first time since 2014, as US President Trump announced that he would reveal his decision on the Iran Deal today at 18:00 GMT. The indications are that he will withdraw from the agreement, calling it one of the “worst deals ever made”. This is despite strong pressure from European allies to stay the course and make amendments if necessary. The price is up 10% over the last month due to this concern so it is possible that there is a “buy the rumour sell the fact” trade taking place, as the price has dropped back from yesterday’s high. Swiss Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) came in at 0.8% against an expected 0.9%, from the previous 0.8%. Inflation has been rising since it bottomed in 2015, with the current level not seen since 2011. Increases in fuel prices are among the main contributors to the higher readings. USDCHF moved higher from 1.00233 to 1.00294 following this data release. US Consumer Credit Change (Mar) came in at $11.62B v an expected $16.00B, against a previous $10.60B, which was revised up to $13.64B. This data release shows a continued decline in consumer credit, with the data down from last month when the higher revision is taken into account. The data missed its consensus by a wide margin and the metric has more than halved since the January high of $28.05B. Credit card debt fell by the largest amount in more than five years, down $2.6B. GBPUSD fell from 1.35664 to 1.35541 after this data release. Australian Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) fell to 0.0% against a consensus of 0.3%, from 0.6% previously. The lower number suggests that the RBA will have to continue its policy of holding rates steady for some time. This came after the beat last month, with the AUD reacting badly to the data release, falling from 0.75212 to 0.74918. EURUSD is down -0.05% overnight, trading around 1.19163. USDJPY is down -0.02% in early session trading at around 109.075. GBPUSD is down -0.03% this morning, trading around 1.35523. USDCAD is up 0.21% overnight, currently trading around 1.29085. Gold is down 0.15% in early morning trading at around $1,312.10. WTI is down -0.03% this morning, trading around $69.93.

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04 мая, 09:24

Limited Market Movements Ahead of NFP and Wage Data

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With the Non-farm payrolls and wage data set to dominate the session today, the overnight picture shows small ranges in markets after Indices sold-off but recovered yesterday. The AUD moved up to 0.75600 in reaction to the RBA Monetary Policy Statement, as the bank upgraded its core inflation outlook for the year and set the tone for higher rates “to be appropriate at some point”. But this move has since reversed, moving below 75420, the level price traded at when the statement was released. Elsewhere, there is no news on the US/Chinese trade talks in Beijing, as the US delegation delivered a list of requests on trade, to their counterparts. UK Markit Services PMI (Apr) came in at 52.8 against an expected 53.5, from 51.7 previously. This data is continuing to decline from its 2013 high of 62.5 and had fallen below 53.0, which had been somewhat of a floor over the last 18 months. The number disappointed yesterday, as it failed to move back above 53.0. GBPUSD moved down from 1.36191 to 1.35736 as a result. US Continuing Jobless Claims (Apr 20) came in at 1.756M versus an expected 1.838M, against 1.837M previously, which was revised down to 1.833M. Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 27) was 211K versus an expected 225K, against 209K previously. This data is showing mixed results, with an increase failing to materialise, generating a miss on expectations but a slight uptick in Initial claims. Nonfarm Productivity (Q1) came in at 0.7% versus an expected 0.9%, against 0.0% previously, which was revised up to 0.3%. This shows efficiency slipping and ultimately upward pressure on inflation. Unit Labour Costs (Q1) was 2.7% versus an expected 2.9%, against 2.5% prior, which was revised down to 2.1%. This shows an increase in this metric despite the miss, with these costs eventually being passed onto consumers, raising inflation. The Trade Balance (Mar) was $-49.0B versus an expected $-50.0B, against a previous $-57.6B, which was revised down to $-57.7B. This data has recovered after reaching levels not seen since 2008 last month. GBPUSD tested up above 1.36000 initially but fell to 1.35377 after this data release. Canadian International Merchandise Trade (Mar) was $-4.14B versus an expected $-2.24B, against a previous number of $-2.69B, which was revised down to $-2.93B. This data has fallen dramatically to match the low of November 2016. USDCAD tested higher to 1.28739 before reversing lower to 1.28431 following this data release. US ISM Non – Manufacturing PMI (Apr) came in at 56.8 versus an expected 58.1, against 58.8 previously. This is still in the upper range of the data releases we have seen over the past seven years but off the highs of above 65.0 reached before the financial crisis. Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar) was 1.6% against an expected 1.4%, from 1.2% prior, which was revised up to 1.6%. USDJPY fell from 109.353 to 108.925 following this data release. EURUSD is down -0.04% overnight, trading around 1.19833. USDJPY is down -0.08% in early session trading at around 109.093. …

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03 мая, 09:22

USD Falls Then Reverses as US Fed Leaves Rates at 1.75%

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The US Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement and Interest Rate Decision were released yesterday evening, with the rate left unchanged at 1.75%. The market is pricing in two to three hikes in 2018, with a slight bias for three to four that could strengthen the dollar position. The Monetary Policy Statement set a slightly hawkish tone, tempered by the Fed saying it would let inflation run a bit above their 2% target. But the underlying factors in the market soon re-established themselves and the market was caught off-guard as the initial reactionary trade post FOMC reversed. EURUSD initially moved higher from 1.19546 to 1.20252 before creating a new low at 1.19376, while USDCAD initially fell from 1.28570 to 1.28097 before moving to a high of 1.28867. Asian equities are lower again today, as markets worry about US/China trade talks. US Equities have failed to follow European Equity markets higher, as the impact from FX is felt. UK Construction PMI (Apr) came in at 52.5 v an expected headline number of 50.5, from 47.0 prior. The consensus was for a recovery in the numbers after a softening from the high of 53.1 created in December. The industry had slipped under 50.0 from the high level of 64.6 in 2014, showing a contraction in the index. This data is strong as we head into summer. GBPUSD moved higher from 1.36295 to 1.36655 after this data release. Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Mar) was as expected, unchanged at 8.5%, a level not previously seen since April 2009. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q1) was as expected at 0.4%, from 0.6% previously. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q1) was also as expected at 2.5%, against 2.7% previously. GDP numbers matched estimates and, although they are down on the previous readings, as these are quarterly figures the decline can be explained somewhat by severe weather in Europe. EURUSD moved up from 1.19932 to 1.20096 following this data release. US ADP Employment Change (Apr) was 204K versus an expected 200K, against 241K previously, which was revised down to 228K. This data has remained above 200 for the last four months, showing that the US economy is continuing to add jobs. However, this was a decline on the previous month and the smallest monthly increase since November. USDCAD moved higher from 1.28210 to 1.28825 after this data came out. EURUSD is up 0.30% overnight, trading around 1.19867. USDJPY is down -0.21% in early session trading at around 109.595. GBPUSD is up 0.25% this morning, trading around 1.36054. Gold is up 0.38% in early morning trading at around $1,309.84. WTI is up 0.16% this morning, trading around $67.76.