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19 января, 16:52

GBPNZD and EURUSD Analysis – January 19, 2018

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The GBPNZD pair has formed a rising channel in the 1-Hour timeframe, the bottom of which is supported by the chart’s 3 main moving averages, the 50, 100 and 200-Hour MAs. The area is centred just below the 1.90000 support level and round number, with a weak two-touch trend line close by. The next level of support is at 1.89545, just above the 200-Hour MA. A loss of this targets the low of the week from Monday at 1.88450. Below the 1.88000 level is the previous resistance turned support level of 1.87750, which has a descending trend line close below it. Further support can be found at 1.86640. Resistance overhead can be found at the descending trend line at 1.90828, with the 1.90924 resistance just above. The rising channel top is located at 1.91211 and continues to gradually rise. 1.92000 can form an area of resistance should price continue to follow the Channel higher. EURUSD The pair has consolidated sideways this week, forming a range between the 1.23223 resistance level and the 1.21640 support area. So far today, the Blue trend line is acting as support at 1.22590 and should this fail, the price may find support at the Red trend line located at 1.21740, close to the 200-Hour MA which is rising nearby. Support below here can be found at 1.21111, followed by 1.20809. The 1.20250 level is the last support before the 1.20000 round number. Resistance for today is at the day’s high of 1.22960, close to the 1.23000 round number and part of its zone of control, the same level that provided resistance early on Monday. This is followed by the week’s high as mentioned above.

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19 января, 14:44

Cryptos Rebound Sharply

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Our last report on the Crypto selloff was two days ago but two days is a long time in the Crypto market. Following the hefty sell-off that lasted for two days, despite negative news flow, cryptocurrencies made a sharp recovery on Thursday. News headlines from South Korea have continued, ranging from insider-trading accusations to admissions that shutting down crypto is “realistically impossible.” South Korean authorities are investigating a claim that employees who are part of a crypto regulation task force were trading ahead of government announcements. Furthermore, more than 200 thousand Koreans signed a petition to the government against a ban, which requires a response and may delay action. In addition, the Chinese Central Bank (PBOC) has taken further action by asking the payment institutions to stop providing services for the trading of virtual currencies. XRPUSD Ripple broke lower and hit the 78.6% Fibonacci target identified in our previous report, where buyers have emerged resulting in a recovery. In the 4-Hourly log scale chart, XRPUSD has broken out of a trading channel to the upside but is capped by the 50MA and horizontal resistance at 1.67. The 38.2% Fibonacci of the entire decline lies at 1.78 and a break above this level is needed for the bulls to take control, with a possible move to resistance at 2.10. However, a reversal below 1.39, could result is a fresh test of the lows. BTCUSD On the 4-Hourly log scale chart, Bitcoin broke the 11,500 level and continued to the downside to test areas below the psychologically important 10,000. Buyers emerged at around 9,300 and the recovery now sees BTCUSD trading back above 11,500. However, a break of horizontal resistance and confluence of Fibonacci at around 13,000 may be needed for a full recovery to take hold. While below 13,000, a retest of 10,000 and below cannot be ruled out. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 8,100 remains a possible downside target.

19 января, 10:58

WTI Crude Weaker After Inventories, USD Index Retesting Significant Lows, GBP Firm Ahead of Retail Sales Data

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The Economic calendar for today is very light, with main events in focus for the European trading session concentrating around German PPI and UK Retail Sales data. Asian equity markets were positive, pointing to a sixth week of gains. The U.S. Dollar Index declined overnight, trading very close to the psychologically important 90.00 level, which represents a four-monthly low. Precious metals rebounded, with Gold trading close to $1330 and Silver close to $17.00. WTI Crude dipped lower after the inventories data published yesterday, which showed larger than expected drawdown but a rise in U.S. production. WTI Crude is trading close to $63.00 after retesting the highest level in more than three years prior to the data release. Apart from the economic data, market participants are looking forward to the 48th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, which is scheduled for next week and will take place in Davos, Switzerland from 23rd until 26th January. US Building Permits (MoM) (Dec) was released to show 1.302M v the consensus of 1.290M, from 1.298M previously. Housing Starts Change (Dec) was also released at the same time, coming in at -8.2% v an expected 1.7%, from 3.3% prior. Housing Starts (MoM) (Dec) showed 1.192M v an expected 1.275M, from a prior of 1.299M. Building Permits Change (Dec) showed-0.1% v an expected -1.0%, from -1.0% previously. Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 12) showed 220K v an expected 250K, from 261K previously. Continuing Jobless claims (Jan 5) showed 1.952M v an expected 1.900M, from 1.876M previously. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jan) showed 22.2 v an expected 25.0, from a prior of 27.9. USD crosses and US Equity markets both reacted in a very limited way after the announcements. ECB’s Executive Board member, Benoit Coeure, spoke at the conclusion of a panel on ‘A post-crisis agenda for the euro area and Germany: which way forward?’, at a joint conference of the IMF and Deutsche Bundesbank “Germany – Current Economic Policy Debates” in Frankfurt, Germany. During the speech, he mentioned that “Eurozone is in expansion, no longer in recovery”. Also, that “Most countries in Euro area need to rebuild fiscal buffers”. The German DAX equity index initially spiked higher, to the closely watched 13300 level. US Weekly Crude Oil Inventories were released yesterday at 16.00 BST, a day later than normal due to the market trading holiday in the U.S. on Monday 15th January for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Weekly inventories came in at -6.861M, which was a much larger drawdown than the expected -3.588M, from a previous value of -4.948M. Other data released at the same time showed inventories for Gasoline were at +3.620M, Distillate at -3.887M, Cushing at -4.184M and Production at +258K bpd. The EIA Crude Oil Stockpiles report is a weekly measure of the change in the number of barrels in stock of crude oil and its derivates and is released by the Energy Information Administration. This report tends to generate large price volatility, as oil prices impact worldwide economies, with the most affected being …

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18 января, 14:02

Levels to Watch: FTSE and DAX

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European stock markets are looking for direction after bullish sentiment in the U.S equity markets and upbeat economic data from China. U.S markets got a boost from the recent tax changes and news of Apple paying about $38bn in tax on cash held outside the U.S and that the company plans to build a new campus and create 20,000 new jobs. Overnight, China’s economy was revealed to have grown by 6.9% for 2017, but expectations were already raised so there was little market reaction. FTSE100 Despite opening higher, FTSE has so far ignored the bullish sentiment and is trading in negative territory for the fourth straight session. In the 4-Hourly timeframe, the index is attempting to break key support at 7700-7705. A failure here could lead to further declines to the 23.6% Fibonacci at 7670, which is also the target implied by the bear flag formation. A reversal above 7714 is needed to target resistance at 7737 and 7760. DAX In the 4-Hourly timeframe, the German index is continuing to trade in a range between 13320 and 13150. Near-term support can be found at 13200. A clear break above highs at 13320 is needed for an attempt to achieve new all-time highs. Alternatively, a break below support at 13150 would see another leg lower with initial support at 13100.

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18 января, 11:52

Chinese GDP Beats Expectations, Asian Equity Markets Pared Gains, European Markets Futures Point to Positive Open

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This morning, ahead of the European markets open at 07.00am GMT, we saw the release of a range of data from China. Chinese Retail Sales came in at 9.4% v an expected 10.1%, from a previous 10.2%. Industrial Production came in at 6.2% v an expected 6.0%, from a previous 6.1%, and probably the most important, YoY GDP came in unchanged at 6.8% v an expected 6.7%. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and studies the gross value of all goods and services produced by China. The indicator presents the pace at which the Chinese economy is growing or decreasing. As the Chinese economy influences the global economy, this economic event normally has an impact on the Asian equity and Forex markets. Turning to currencies, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded slightly from its three-year low, currently trading at 90.65. Euro dropped a bit post various ECB speeches, currently trading just below the psychological 1.2200 level. Sterling jumped initially to an intraday high of 1.3940, creating a fresh post-Brexit high, before correcting slightly to 1.3810 ahead of the European open. In Commodities, WTI is higher, trading very close to the important $64.00, mainly reflecting solid compliance to OPEC production cuts, currently at above 100% for December. Precious metals weakened, with Gold below $1330 and Silver close to $17.00, both trading slightly lower. Other base metals like Copper, Zinc and Aluminium also fell. Eurozone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Dec) was released coming in at 1.1%. The consensus was for 0.9%, from 1.1% previously. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) was as expected at 0.4%, from 0.1% previously. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was as expected, unchanged at 1.4%. Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (Dec) was 0.5% v an expected 0.4%, from -0.1% prior. EURUSD moved higher to 1.22495 but then fell back down to retrace the initial move. UK MPC Member Saunders spoke at the Financial Intermediary and Broker Association inaugural conference in London. He said that any further tightening would be gradual and limited. The Jobless rate is likely to fall to 4% or below in 2018, from 4.3% in late 2017. The near-term outlook for the UK economy is not great but not terrible. Pay growth is likely to increase to 3% or more in 2018. GBPUSD fell to 1.37802 during this time. US Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) was released and came in at 0.9%. The consensus was for 0.4%, from 0.2% previously. Capacity Utilization (Dec) was also released at the same time, coming in at 77.9% v an expected 77.3%, from 77.1% prior, which was revised up to 77.2%. USDJPY sold off from 110.764 to 110.625. US NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan) was as expected at 72. The previous reading was 74. The Bank of Canada Rate Statement was made public. The Monetary Policy Report was also released and the Interest Rate Decision was increased, as expected, to 1.25% from 1.00% previously. In the statement, the Bank …

17 января, 16:37

EURGBP and USDCAD Analysis – January 17, 2018

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EURGBP has transitioned from trading in a channel higher, to trading in a sideways range. Resistance in the area around 0.89240 has been confirmed, leading to a selloff down below the moving average cluster in the 4-Hour chart. The 0.88595 support area has been breached today and for now, the 0.88477 level is holding. A loss of this area would target support at 0.88084. This area is important as it is the most recently created higher low. Therefore, a move below it creates a new lower low with the possibility to find support at 0.87917 and attempt to move back higher. On the other hand, if price wants to move lower, the 15th of December low comes into play at 0.87574. Resistance above can be found at 0.89283, followed by 0.89794 (which is a trend line resistance) and ultimately the 0.90000 round number. USDCAD The Bank of Canada is poised to deliver a rate increase of 25bps later today, in an effort to normalise policy and stabilise the economic situation across the country. The Canadian economy has been outperforming for some time and the Housing market barely registered the financial crisis last decade. The risk for the BOC comes in the form of NAFTA, as an interruption could destabilise the current boom and put the economy at risk of recession. The chart shows a large selloff to support at 1.23545 from the late December high of 1.29193. The rebound higher failed at the 100-period MA in the 4-Hour chart, which has now enabled a trend line to be drawn providing resistance at 1.24983, close to the 1.25000 level. Due to the major event from the BOC today it is worth looking further afield for points of support and resistance, as the volatility generated could overwhelm important levels close to the current price level. The 1.27000 area has been used as support and resistance recently, followed by resistance at 1.27913. Support can be found at 1.23279, the low from late September 2017.

17 января, 15:00

Pound Rises to Major Level

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The GBPUSD pair has rallied strongly to trade above 1.38 especially against a weak US dollar. This has been encouraged by positive Brexit news, with Dutch and Spanish officials making it known last week that they would like a soft Brexit. Yesterday, European Council president Donald Tusk said, in his usual poetic manner, that Europeans’ “hearts are still open” to “our British friends” to remain in the EU. However, the rally in cable paused as inflation in the UK dipped to 3.0% in December, which is still much higher than the Bank of England (BOE) target of 2%. The BOE has said it thinks inflation peaked at the end of 2017 and will fall back to its target of 2% this year. An easing in the rate of inflation could keep the BOE dovish. On the monthly chart, GBPUSD has rallied into a major area of resistance. At 1.3830-50, cable found support at the start of 2016 ahead of the Brexit referendum, before breaking through after the vote results. The level has been tested a number of times since 1986. It remains to be seen if this area will now be confirmed as resistance or the price will break above. Much will depend on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. In the daily timeframe, GBPUSD is finding resistance at 1.38 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci of the drop from the Brexit vote. A break of this level is needed to target the 1.39 round number and then 1.4015 lows from June 2016. However, a reversal should find near-term support at 1.3740, with major support at 1.3655 and 1.3615. A drop below 1.3340 is needed before a change of trend could be considered a possibility.

17 января, 10:30

Bank of Canada Rate Hike Expected Today

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The BOC is expected to deliver an Interest rate hike of 25bps today as it seeks to catch up with an economy that is flying high. BOC’s Governor Poloz will deliver his decision and Press Conference, where he will outline the factors involved in making the decision. Chief among them will be the broad underlying wage growth and strong price dynamics of the economy, coupled with excesses in the financial system. The Governor down-played NAFTA concerns in his December speech but as the Trade negotiations are on-going this week, they will remain a concern for the economy unless a positive resolution can be found. With this in mind, a somewhat dovish speech is expected today to balance strong economic performance with ongoing uncertainties, maintaining flexibility for future policy decisions. We await the BOC decision at 15:00 GMT. German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Dec) was released unchanged at 1.6%, as expected. Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Dec) was -0.3% v an expected 0.3%, from 0.5% previously. Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was 1.8% v 3.3% previously. EURUSD sold off from 1.22676 to 1.22157. UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was 3.0%, as expected, from 3.1% previously. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was 2.5% v an expected 2.6%, from 2.7% prior. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) came in as expected at 0.4%, from 0.3% prior. Producer Price Index – Output (MoM) n.s.a. (Dec) was 0.4% v an expected 0.3%, from 0.3% previously, which was revised up to 0.4%. Producer Price Index – Output (YoY) n.s.a. (Dec) was 3.3% v an expected 2.9%, from 3.0% previously, which was revised up to 3.1%. Producer Price Index – Input (MoM) n.s.a. (Dec) was 0.1% v an expected 0.4%, from 1.8% previously, which was revised down to 1.6%. Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) n.s.a. (Dec) was 4.9% v an expected 5.4%, from 7.3% previously. PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a. (Dec) was 0.3% v an expected 0.2%, from 0.2% previously. PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a. (Dec) was 2.5% v an expected 2.3%, from 2.2% previously. GBPUSD sold off from 1.37826 to 1.37416 after the data release. Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence (Jan) was released, coming in at 1.8%. The previous reading was 3.6%. This release sent the AUDUSD pair higher from 0.79636 to 0.79737. Japanese Machinery Orders (YoY) (Nov) was released at 4.1% with a consensus of -0.7% expected, from 2.3% prior. Machinery Orders (MoM) (Nov) was released at 5.7% with a consensus of -1.4% expected, from 5.0% previously. USDJPY moved higher from 110.288 to test 110.427 after this data release. Australian Home Loans was released at 2.1% v a consensus of -0.2%, from -0.6% previously. Investment Lending for Homes (Nov) was 1.5% from 1.6% prior. AUDUSD stepped higher to test 0.79990. Chinese FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) (Dec) was 7.9% from 9.8% previously. EURUSD is down -0.26% overnight, trading around 1.22280. USDJPY is up 0.35% in early session trading at around 110.833. GBPUSD is down -0.15% to trade around 1.37701. USDCAD is …

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16 января, 18:00

EURUSD and Italian MIB40 Analysis – January 16, 2018

The Euro had gotten to a high of 1.22960 against the USD yesterday, before retracing to test support at 1.22000 this morning. The rally higher over the last few days took place despite the fact that trend line support was lost on the 8th of January. The pair spent the next three trading sessions below this red trend line, before retesting it and then breaking higher at 1.20733 on the 12th. This is a classic case of previous support becoming resistance, but on this occasion that resistance was broken. A retest of the trend cannot be ruled out while the price stays below 1.23000, and with that in mind, the current price of the trend line is 1.21134. Close support can be found at 1.21868 and the price is currently tackling the 50-Hour MA above it. The 100-hour is at 1.21453 and the 200-hour is at 1.20809, either side of the red support trend line. A loss of these supports targets the round number of 1.20000. German political issues are again taking centre stage today, with reports suggesting there is some opposition within the SPD towards forming a coalition government with Merkel’s CDU. Whether this is posturing or something more meaningful remains to be seen but EURUSD had slipped as a result. Italian MIB40 This Index has been on a strong bullish leg higher since the 2nd of January, gaining some 2000 pips in that time. Current highs achieved today at 23700 are located at the top of the bullish channel that price entered on the 8th of January. In essence, unless traders sell the index below the channel bottom, the price should remain supported and bullish. This rally was triggered by a break of resistance late on the 3rd when a trend line, the 50-Hour MA and the 21941.0 resistance level were broken. The market opened the following day with a breakaway gap higher and never looked back. That first hour of trading on the 4th took price through the 100-Hour MA and right up to the 200-Hour MA. In the 1-Hour chart, none of these MAs have been retested, telling the story of a strong Bull Market. The 50-Hour MA is currently below the 23522.5 support level and is located at 23357.0. The 100-Hour is below the 23123.0 support level and is located at 23086.6. Round number support is at 23000.0 with further support at 23889.3 and the 200-Hour at 22791.3. Some 1000 pips below current price action, and close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2018 trading range, is support at 22585.0, the 4th of January daily high.

16 января, 16:46

Bitcoin Price Drops Below December Lows

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According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin price has dropped under $12,000, below its December lows. This decline seems troubling, partially reflecting the market’s dynamic due to Bitcoin’s status as the “benchmark currency”. Ethereum dropped to $1,000, albeit trading around $1,300 yesterday. Zcash lost a quarter of its value this morning alone, falling to $535. Ripple is trading around $1.3, yet looks weaker than other majors. The cryptocurrency market remains incredibly volatile and it is possible that it will bounce back at any moment. Bitcoin’s price at around $12,000 is generally attractive to investors, yet we cannot help but recall billionaire Mike Novogratz, who sold his Bitcoins in late 2017, commenting on the excessive volatility of the currency. He has now announced plans to open the first fully functional commercial cryptocurrency bank, demonstrating his belief in the ultimate general success of the industry. Nonetheless, investors that bought the cryptocurrency near its maximum highs of $20,000 at the end of last year now have serious reasons for concern. The market seems overwhelmed by rumours regarding a complete currency ban in South Korea and the prohibition of mining in China due to high electricity consumption. What’s more, it was today reported that Chinese financial authorities plan to block domestic access to cryptocurrency trading platforms. The impact of government decisions regarding the cryptocurrency market is heightened by software updates designed to solve scalability problems, with developers relying massively on finding the right approach to the technical development of the blockchain.

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16 января, 14:30

Cryptocurrency Selloff Resumes

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This morning all cryptocurrencies are sliding amid a major selloff. Most have fallen more than 10 percent, with the price of Bitcoin trading below $12,000. Earlier, it was reported that deputy governor of the Chinese central bank, PBOC, said in an internal meeting that China should ban centralized trading of virtual currencies as well as related services. China may target websites and mobile apps that offer exchange-like services, in a bid to block access to platforms that deliver centralised trading on cryptocurrencies. Further news from South Korea also emerged, again suggesting an outright ban on crypto trading. All of this has caused a steady decline in volumes in Japan and South Korea for the last few days. XRPUSD On the 4-Hourly chart, XRPUSD has now broken the 1.60 support level identified in our previous report. This level can now be considered resistance and only a reversal and break above would change the bearish outlook. Near-term support has emerged at 1.13, but a breakdown would open the way for a test of the horizontal support and 78.6% Fibonacci near 0.892. BTCUSD On the 4-Hourly log scale chart, Bitcoin has now broken down from the trading channel identified in our previous report. Support seems to have emerged around 11,500 as envisaged. However, should further declines ensue; strong support should emerge around the 10,000 area, as this is a big round number and represents a 50% drop from the high. A failure here could lead to a test of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 8,100. A reversal and move back into the trading range above 13,000 would be needed to change the outlook.

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16 января, 10:27

Japanese Yen Reaches Key Psychological Area Against the Dollar

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USDJPY found support ahead of 110.000 yesterday, with a low of 110.330. The area is a key psychological support for the pair finding buyers to reverse the recent bout of selling. A drop below the 110.000 level has prompted intervention from authorities in the past, as the countries’ Equities Indices come under pressure from the exchange rate. UK MPC Member Teneyro gave a speech entitled ‘The Fall in Productivity Growth: Causes and Implications’ at the Queen Mary University of London on Monday evening. She said that there was ample time before BOE would need to change rates again. She expects a couple of more rate hikes over the next three years if the economy performs as expected. Productivity risks might be skewed to the upside. She also made the comment that there are huge problems with the way GDP is measured and that it is unclear how productive self-employed workers are. Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. (Nov) was released with the number coming in at €26.3B. The expected number was €28.2B from €18.9B prior. Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. (Nov) was €22.5B v an expected €22.3B, from €19.0B previously. EURUSD moved higher from 1.22600 to 1.22963 after the data was released. New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) (Q4) was in at -12% from 5% previously. Also released was Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) coming in as expected at 0.5, from 1.2% previously, that was revised up to 1.3%. Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec) were 3.3% v a prior reading of 4.3%. Japanese All Industry Activity Index (MoM)(Nov) was 1.1% v 0.4% expected, from 0.3% previously, which was revised down to 0.2%. USDJPY moved higher from 110.695 to 110.934 following the data release. EURUSD is up 0.05% overnight, trading around 1.22693. USDJPY is up 0.27% in early session trading at around 110.819. GBPUSD is up 0.03% to trade around 1.37939. USDCAD is down -0.02%, trading around 1.24253. Gold is up 0.06% in early morning trading at around $1,340.39. WTI is down -0.39% this morning, trading around $64.41. Major data releases for today: At 07:00, German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Dec) will be released. The consensus is for an unchanged value of 1.6%. Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Dec) is expected to be 0.3% from 0.5% previously. Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (Dec) was 3.3% previously. EUR pairs may have positions opened or closed due to this data. At 09:30 GMT, UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) is expected out at 3.2% v 3.1% previously. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Dec) is expected unchanged at 2.7%. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) is expected at 0.6% from 0.3% prior. Producer Price Index – Output (MoM) n.s.a. (Dec) is expected at 0.1% from 0.3% previously. Producer Price Index – Output (YoY) n.s.a. (Dec) is expected at 2.8% from 3.0% previously. Producer Price Index – Input (MoM) n.s.a. (Dec) is expected at 0.5% from 1.8% previously. Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) n.s.a. (Dec) is expected at 6.0% from 7.3% previously. PPI Core Output (MoM) …