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30 марта, 15:17

USD/JPY Holds Above Support Ahead of US Data

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The dollar index has rebounded noticeably from a 4-and-a-half-month low of 98.85, helped by outperforming US consumer confidence for March, and recent Fed comments. This morning, the dollar index rallies and touches a 1-week high of 100.02. Monday March 27, USD/JPY hit the lowest level of 110.10 since November 18, caused by the slump of USD on Trump’s healthcare bill failure. Since then, the downtrend was held above the significant support line at 110.00, where there is relatively strong support. On the 4-hourly chart, the 10 SMA has crossed over the 20 SMA from below, indicating the trend has turned bullish. Today, at 13:30 BST, sees the release of US initial jobless claims (the week ending March 24), Q4 GDP final reading and Q4 PCE inflation figures for March; with better-than-expected readings it is likely to provide further support to USD. The resistance level is at 111.40, followed by 111.70 and 112.00. The support line is at 111.00, followed by 110.70 and 110.40.

30 марта, 11:16

USD Firms Ahead of Q4 GDP Final Reading

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The dollar index has rebounded noticeably from a 4-and-a-half-month low of 98.85, helped by outperforming US consumer confidence for March, and recent Fed comments. This morning, the dollar index rallies and touches a 1-week high of 100.02. Today, at 13:30 BST, sees the release of US Q4 GDP final reading and Q4 PCE inflation figures for March; with better-than-expected readings it is likely to provide further support to USD. At present, the US economic condition remains sound. Whereas, per the first and second Q4 GDP annualized readings: a 1.9% growth, showing a slowdown comparing to a 3.5% growth in Q3. OPEC is considering whether to extend the oil output cut for another 6 months to lift weak oil prices. The decision will likely be made in their scheduled meeting on May 25 in Vienna. In addition, the EIA crude oil inventories (the week ending March 24) was a 0.867 million barrels increase; less than expectations of 1.183 m and the previous figure of 4.954 m. These two factors cushioned oil prices creating a noticeable bounce off on Wednesday. Britain’s ambassador to the EU, Tim Barrow, handed over the Brexit triggering notification letter, signed by the UK Prime Minister Theresa May, to the EU Council President, Donald Tusk, in Brussels. Tusk is expected to present draft Brexit guidelines to the European Union’s remaining 27 member states by this Friday. A withdraw agreement must be accepted by 72% out of the 27 states, representing 65% of the population. Member states are expected to hold a Brexit summit on April 29. The Guardian reports (per a leaked copy of the European Parliament draft resolution) that the EU appears to be taking a strong position aka. “a hard Brexit”. It will likely result in no free trade agreements between the UK and the EU over the next two years, with a transition period of no longer than 3 years. The draft resolution is likely to be discussed next week. Theresa May now faces a severe challenge: dealing with a prospective hard Brexit negotiation with the EU, at the same time, maintaining the UK territory from falling apart with the threat of Scotland’s independence attempt. The Eurozone economic sentiment, business climate and consumer confidence (Mar) will be released at 10:00 BST today, followed by German CPI (Mar) at 13:00 BST, and the US Q4 GDP final readings and US Q4 PCE at 13:30 BST.

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29 марта, 14:22

GBP/USD Holds Above Significant Support Post Scottish Referendum Shock

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Tuesday evening, March 28, the Scottish parliament has voted by 69 to 59, in favour of holding a second independence referendum. GBP/USD has slumped more than 220 points since Tuesday, from a psychological level at 1.2600, to a 1-week low of 1.2376, breaking the support level at 1.2500. This morning, the bulls have recovered the significant support level at 1.2400, as a correction after a slump, also because the level provides a stronger support. The bearish momentum has been waning; we will likely see a rebound here. The 4-hourly Stochastic Oscillator reading is below 30, suggesting a rebound. However, Theresa May, will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty today, March 29, starting the 2-year Brexit negotiation process with the EU. It is still uncertain whether Brexit would be hard or soft, and what kind of final deal would be made. Be aware that downward pressure is still on GBP and GBP crosses with any negative news over Brexit process. The resistance level is at 1.2460, followed by 1.2475 and 1.2500. The support line is at 1.2420, followed by 1.2400 and 1.2380.

29 марта, 11:09

Second Scottish Referendum Hits GBP Ahead of Brexit Triggering

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Tuesday evening, March 28, the Scottish parliament has voted by 69 to 59, in favour of holding a second independence referendum. GBP/USD has slumped more than 220 points since Tuesday, from a psychological level at 1.2600, to a 1-week low of 1.2376, breaking the support level at 1.2500. The bulls are currently attempting to recover the significant support level at 1.2400. Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon and her SNP Party won the first round of the battle, helped by the support from the Green party. The proposal will be delivered to the UK parliament for voting. However, UK Prime Minister Theresa May has stated not long ago that the UK government will not approve the referendum during the 2-year Brexit negotiation process with the EU. UK Prime Minister Theresa May, will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty today, March 29, starting the 2-year Brexit negotiation process with the EU. Theresa May will formally notify the EU Council President, Donald Tusk. Tusk is expected to present draft Brexit guidelines to the European Union’s 27 member states, within 48 hours of the UK triggering Article 50. The member states are expected to hold a Brexit summit on April 29. Brexit process uncertainties and a second Scottish referendum turmoil pose downward pressure on GBP and GBP crosses. The UK’s economic prospects are still vague. Although Trump’s healthcare bill failure hit USD and US equities on Monday, US consumer confidence for March, released on Tuesday, soared to its highest level since 2000. The figure cushioned USD and pushed US equities up from a 6-week low. From the perspective of economic data, the US economy remains solid at present. US Q4 GDP final reading will be released this Friday March 31, with better-than-expected readings likely providing further support to USD. It will take an extended period to see the concrete impacts caused by Trump’s administration on the US economy, after more actions are put on the table, although it doesn’t seem to be optimistic. Today US pending home sales (Feb), will be released at 15:00 BST. It will be followed by the US EIA crude oil inventory at 15:30 BST. Oil prices have rebounded since March 27, helped by OPEC’s 6-month output extension consideration.

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28 марта, 14:19

DAX Bulls Test Near Term Major Resistance

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The DAX index has been oscillated in the range between 11900 and 12100 since early March. Monday, we saw the release of German IFO expectations, current assessment and business climate figures for March, all better than expectations and the previous figures. The outperforming IFO figures provide DAX some support. At present, the trend remains bullish. However, the price is currently nearing the near-term major resistance level at 12100, where the pressure is heavier. Be aware that the bullish momentum is likely to be restrained at this level. The 4-hourly Stochastic Oscillator reading is above 80, suggesting a retracement. The resistance level is at 12800, followed by 12100 and 12115. The support line is at 12050, followed by 12030 and 12010.

28 марта, 11:04

Brexit Flight: A Hard or Soft Landing?

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UK Prime Minister Theresa May will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty on Wednesday March 29, starting the 2-year Brexit negotiation process with the EU. The EU leaders will hold a summit on April 29 to adopt Brexit guidelines. There are three possible situations for the negotiation process: soft Brexit, hard Brexit, or failing to achieve any agreements. In the third situation, trade between the UK and the EU must be carried out per the World Trade Organisation (WTO) clauses. The EU is unlikely to make it easy for the UK to leave, in order to prevent other EU member states from leaving the EU following Brexit. Downward pressure is still on GBP and GBP crosses until the outline of the final Brexit deal draft is clear. Thousands of protesters in the UK marched, on March 25, against Brexit. The UK government have a list of issues that need to be negotiated with the EU such as; a new post-Brexit trade agreement, tariff, transportation, financial services, fishing waters, and reducing the number of EU immigrants entering the UK etc. The EU is the UK’s biggest trade partner with the two economies being highly interdependent over the past decades. The EU and the UK must manage to minimize the Brexit impact and reach balance between their own interests. Theresa May aims to get the best Brexit deal with access to the single market and a new trade agreement with minimised trade barriers. The EU economy is highly tied up with UK financial services it is therefore also crucial for the EU to maintain its access to London’s financial sector. After the UK leaves the EU, the UK will be able to retrieve the control of its borders, jurisdiction, and diplomacy. The UK will be free to sign trade agreements and develop a tighter relationship with other economies such as the US and China. In addition, the UK will get rid of the financial burden of the EU annual membership fee. The Scottish parliament will vote on whether to hold a second Scottish independence referendum today, which is only one day ahead the triggering of the Brexit process. If the result is to hold a referendum, the proposal will be delivered to the UK parliament for voting. In this situation, it will pose more political uncertainties on the UK’s economic prospects and the value of GBP. GBP/USD hit a 7-week high of 1.2615 on Monday, mainly because of the slump of USD, be aware that the GBP crosses will likely to be volatile with the proceeding of Brexit.

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27 марта, 14:45

GBP/USD Bulls Test 1.2600 Ahead of Brexit Triggering

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This morning GBP/USD reached 1.2597, the highest the pair has attained since February 2, helped by the slump of USD caused by Trump’s healthcare bill failure. GBP/USD has been trading above the downside uptrend line support since mid-March. The significant psychological resistance level at 1.2500 was broken today during early Asian session. The bulls are currently testing the next significant psychological resistance level at 1.2600. At present, the price still trades along the upper band of the Bollinger Band indicator, suggesting the trend remains bullish. The resistance level is at 1.2600, followed by 1.2630 and 1.2650. The support line is at 1.2550, followed by 1.2530 and 1.2500. There are two upcoming risk events this week, which will likely have some impact on GBP. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty on Wednesday March 29, starting the 2-year Brexit negotiation process with the EU. Theresa May will formally notify the EU Council President, Donald Tusk. Tusk is expected to present draft Brexit guidelines to the European Union’s 27 member states within 48 hours of the UK triggering Article 50. Theresa May’s letter, and Donald Tusk’s response, will likely give markets more clues about the potential difficulties of the upcoming Brexit procedure. The Scottish parliament will vote on whether to hold a second Scottish independence referendum on Tuesday March 28, which is only one day ahead the triggering of the Brexit process. If the result is to hold a referendum, the proposal will be delivered to the UK parliament for voting. In this situation, it will pose more political uncertainties on the UK’s economic prospects and GBP. UK Q4 GDP final reading will be released this Friday with better-than-expected readings likely providing some support to GBP.

27 марта, 11:06

USD Hits Lowest Level Since November on Trump’s Healthcare Failure

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The dollar index slumped to a 4-and-a-half-month low of 98.85 this morning during the European session, US equities also fell, as markets have lost confidence in Trump’s administration to fulfil his promises. Trump’s first bill proposal since taking office, to repeal Obamacare and replace it with the American Health Care Act, failed on Friday March 24. This is his second failure following the refugee and immigration travel ban. Not surprisingly President Trump blamed the Democrats for the failure. On one hand, none of Democrats were willing to support the new healthcare bill. On the other hand, the defections within the Republican party were more than the limit of 22. Even Trump had tried to convince his peers on Friday, clearly his warnings and efforts were not effective. The failure has put an issue on the spot: compared to the Democratic Party’s unity, there seems to be lots of disagreements within the Republican party, and the leadership of Trump and the House Speaker Paul Ryan face severe challenges. The hurdles that Trump’s administration will likely face seem to be more than expected. President Trump now focuses on his next bill proposal: tax reform, which is a more controversial issue. He promised to cut the corporate tax to 15% during the election. His plan is to make up the reduction of government’s tax income by the decrease of healthcare spending – not an easy task following last week’s failure of the healthcare bill. It is likely the administration will face the same hurdle (Democratic disfavour and Republican disagreements) on the tax reform proposal. Thus, it will be difficult for Trump to keep his promise to reform taxes. If the tax bill fails to pass the Republican voters’ disappointment might be greatly lifted and the party will likely lose some seats in the 2018 election. USD and US equities still face downward pressure on Trump’s tax plan uncertainty. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty on Wednesday March 29, starting the 2-year Brexit negotiation process with the EU. Theresa May will formally notify the EU Council President, Donald Tusk. Tusk is expected to present draft Brexit guidelines to the European Union’s 27 member states within 48 hours of the UK triggering Article 50. The member states are expected to hold a Brexit summit within 4-6 weeks. Theresa May’s letter, and Donald Tusk’s response, will likely give markets more clues about the potential difficulties of the upcoming Brexit procedure. GBP/USD reached 1.2579 the highest the pair has attained since February 9 mainly because of the weakening of USD. The Scottish parliament will vote on whether to hold a second Scottish independence referendum on Tuesday March 28, which is only one day ahead the triggering of the Brexit process. If the result is to hold a referendum, the proposal will be delivered to the UK parliament for voting. In this situation, it will pose more political uncertainties on the UK’s economic prospects and GBP. UK Q4 GDP final reading …

24 марта, 13:53

NZD/USD Hovers Around Support Prior to US Healthcare Vote

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NZD/USD has retraced substantially since March 21st, as it was nearing the short-term major resistance level at 0.7100. This morning, the bearish momentum was held above the significant psychological support line at 0.7000, where the 10 SMA converges (on the daily chart), the support here is stronger. The 4-hourly Stochastic Oscillator is around 20, suggesting a rebound. The resistance level is at 0.7015, followed by 0.7030 and 0.7050. The support line is at 0.7000, followed by 0.6985 and 0.6970. Today we will see the release of US durable goods orders and core durable goods (Fed), at 12:30 GMT. With better-than-expected readings, it will likely weigh on NZD/USD, and test supports. With weaker-than-expected readings, it will likely push NZD/USD up, and test resistances. Three Fed presidents are scheduled to deliver speeches today, their hawkish/dovish comments will also likely affect the strength of the dollar. The major focus for today is the vote on Trump’s healthcare bill proposal to repeal Obamacare. The vote was postponed from Thursday evening to today. This is Trump’s first bill proposal since taking office. However, there has been a severe disagreement within the Republican party. If the bill fails to pass, markets would likely lose confidence in Trump’s administration and his other policies (such as tax-cuts and regulation reform) which will likely weigh on USD and US equities. In this situation, NZD/USD will likely further rally and test resistances. Be aware that markets are likely to be volatile today.

24 марта, 12:12

Healthcare Vote Postponed Due To Republican Disagreement

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The vote on President Trump’s first bill proposal since taking office, to repeal Obamacare and replace it with the American Health Care Act, was postponed abruptly from Thursday evening to Friday March 24, due to severe disagreements within the Republican party. President Trump and Republican leaders have been attempting to convince more Republicans to support the new bill. However, it seems to be difficult to reverse the situation in a short time period. Trump stated that if the bill fails to pass he would leave the Obamacare in place (against his election pledge). The Republican party holds the majority in the US Congress in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Democratic minority will vote against the Bill. The Bill requires at least 215 votes to pass from the House’s 430 current members. Therefore, the maximum of defections is limited to 22 votes from the Republican party’s 237 representatives. The dollar index has been oscillating in a range between 99.30 – 99.80 set in the past two days. If the Bill fails to pass, markets would likely lose confidence in Trump’s administration and his other policies (such as tax-cuts and regulation reform) which will likely weigh on USD and US equities. The dollar index will likely fall and test the significant support level at 99.00. Fed Chair Yellen made a speech on Thursday at the Community Development Research. Unexpectedly, she mainly talked about financial education for children and teenagers without mentioning monetary policy and/or the economic outlook. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (an FOMC voting member) said on Thursday that “the Fed should patiently remove monetary policy accommodation, as the US economy is making progress and the job market is tight, and suggesting three rate hikes this year”. With that said, the Fed will likely raise rates two times more until the end of the year. Conversely, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (an FOMC voting member) commented that “inflation remains below the Fed’s target”. He was the only one who dissented a rate hike in last week’s FOMC rate decision. The Scottish parliament postponed a second Scottish independence referendum vote due to the terror attack at Westminster. The vote was postponed until Tuesday 28 March, which is only one day ahead the triggering of the Brexit process. We can expect volatility on GBP and GBP crosses over the period. Today we will see the release of US durable goods orders and core durable goods (Fed), accompanied by Canadian CPI and core CPI (Feb), at 12:30 GMT. Fed presidents are scheduled to deliver speeches today per the following schedule: 12:00 GMT Chicago Fed President, an FOMC voting member, Charles Evans 13:05 GMT St Louis Fed President, an FOMC member, James Bullard 14:00 GMT New York Fed President, an FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley

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23 марта, 13:16

Gold Tests Resistance Zone Ahead of Yellen’s Speech and Health Care Bill

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Gold has rallied for six consecutive days since March 15, saw its longest bullish streak since January, after testing the significant support zone between 1195 – 1200 in mid-March. Market concerns, over President Trump’s policies and the French presidential election, are resulting in Investors turning to safe havens. The weakening of USD has also pushed gold prices up. Spot gold hit a 3-week high of 1251.20. The bulls tested a significant resistance level at 1250 on Wednesday evening, however, the price retraced. The price zone between 1250 – 1260 is the short–term major resistance zone, where the selling pressure is heavy. The gold bulls are likely to struggle at this zone. The daily Stochastic Oscillator reading is around 90, suggesting a retracement. The resistance level is at 1248, followed by 1250 and 1253.50. The support line is at 1245, followed by 1243 and 1240.50. Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to make a speech at 12:45 GMT today, Thursday March 23rd, at the Community Development Research, which is the major focus amongst this week’s Fed speeches. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (a FOMC voting member) will make a speech at 16:30 GMT followed by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (a FOMC voting member) at 23:00 GMT. Today will see the release of US initial jobless claims (for the week ending March 10) at 12:30 GMT, followed by US new home sales for February at 14:00 GMT. The Fed speeches and the US economic data will likely affect the strength of USD, USD crosses and gold prices.

23 марта, 12:14

USD Hovers Around Support Levels Ahead of Yellen’s Speech and Health Care Bill

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Today the US Congress will vote on whether to repeal Obamacare, which is President Trump’s first bill proposal since taking office. President Trump has warned Republicans that, if the healthcare reform bill fails to pass, they will lose their seats. However, if the new healthcare bill passes, that means many Americans pay a much higher amount of money on medical spending. For the markets the concern is, that if the bill fails to pass, President Trump’s other policies, such as tax-cuts and regulation reform would also encounter hurdles. These concerns weigh on USD and US equities. USD continued falling on Wednesday. The dollar index broke a significant support line at 99.50 and hitting a 7-week low of 99.32. USD bulls attempted to recover the level early this morning. The next significant support is at 99.00; if this level is broken we will likely see a further USD sell-off. Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to make a speech at 12:45 GMT today, Thursday March 23rd, at the Community Development Research, which is the major focus amongst this week’s Fed speeches. The latest French presidential election polls show a tight race between the three candidates: Macron, Le Pen and Fillon. Even with Fillon being charged with creating fake jobs and being put under formal investigation. The right-wing candidate, Le Pen, has stated her attempt to take France out of the EU following Brexit. Market concerns, over President Trump’s policies and the French presidential election, are resulting in Investors turning to safe havens. The weakening of USD has also pushed gold prices up. Spot gold hit a 3-week high of 1251.20, testing a significant resistance level at 1250 on Wednesday evening. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept rates unchanged at 1.75% which was in line with expectations. NZD/USD remains unchanged as the RBNZ stated that “monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period because the global economic uncertainties remain substantial and there is no hurry to alter policies”. Today will see the release of UK retail sales for February at 09:30 GMT. This is followed by US initial jobless claims (for the week ending March 10) at 12:30 GMT, Yellen’s speech at 12:45 GMT and US new home sales for February at 14:00 GMT. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (a FOMC voting member) will make a speech at 16:30 GMT followed by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (a FOMC voting member) at 23:00 GMT.