Official FxPro Forex Broker Blog. Professional daily Forex market reviews and analysis. Economic calendar.
23 марта, 18:40

Analysts Hope to See Bitcoin Growth Despite Recent Drops

One of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Binance, has received a warning letter from Japan’s top financial regulator, causing further declines in the market. Binance’s CEO, Zhao Changpeng, said that the exchange is “engaged in constructive dialogue” with the watchdog, but his statement didn’t lead to a reverse market to growth. Snapchat has decided to join other technology giants in banning ICO ads. It seems that such measures have become a new trend at exactly the same moment that the U.S. regulator has exerted pressure on the industry. Bitcoin owners are not only interested in tax services but also in intelligent services. In particular, Edward Snowden disclosed National Security Agency (NSA) documentation. According to the documents, the agency has been tracking Bitcoin users with spy tools since 2013 and has collected Bitcoin wallet transaction data. The Venezuelan government-issued cryptocurrency, the Petro, attracted 82.4% investment from 100BLN tokens during its pre-sale launch. It seems that Donald Trump’s executive order prohibiting U.S. citizens from buying the currency didn’t have a significant effect on demand. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin has dropped 6% in the last 24 hours and is trading at around $8400. Ethereum lost 9% and is trading at the $510 mark. NEO saw the largest decline, losing more than 12%, to currently trade at $65. Fundstrat Global Advisors analysts had this to say about the cyclical nature of the crypto market: a correction is followed by a rally and that the next stage is consolidation. According to their statement, cycles of growth and decline should have near equal length. By now, correction has been going on for 64 days, while the rally only lasted for 62 days. It is highly likely that consolidation will continue until the end of the summer or the middle of September. After this period, Bitcoin will likely experience growth again.

Выбор редакции
23 марта, 12:41

UK 100 and Silver Analysis – March 23, 2018

  • 0

The UK 100 index has fallen below its February low at 6916.3, painting a bearish picture for 2018. The level was lost in the US session yesterday, and the index reached a low of 6835.7 overnight. Attempts to recover this morning are stalling above 6900.0. The increase in international trade tension has led to a fall in risk sentiment. The UK has been included in a list of exempted countries for the US trade tariffs due to its EU membership. Support below comes in at 6800.0 and 6765.8. Resistance above comes from the trend lines broken in yesterday’s session, with the blue line at 6968.3 and the red line at 7007.4, a previous level of interest. The 4-hour moving averages are turning sharply lower, with the 50-period at 7055.0, the 100-period at 7115.0 and the 200-period at 7200.0. 7141.8 is the break down level and bulls would need to regain this area to wrest control from the bears. Silver Silver has recovered to test its 200-period MA at 16.540, after finding support at the black trend line near 16.335 yesterday. This trend line has been breached on two occasions now but the move back higher on Wednesday presented excellent before and after touches, re-affirming its significance. Price reached up to the 16.661 level before retesting the black line and rebounding. This presents a bullish option for traders, with those missing out on the retest waiting for interaction with the falling blue two-touch trend line at 16.625, to see if price can rally further. Support is found at the black trend line at 16.340, with the 16.308 level close below. Further support is located at 16.137 and 16.076. Resistance is at 16.661, with 16.753 and the most recent high at 16.869 above. The 17.000 level remains a target to aim for.

23 марта, 10:49

Canadian Retail Sales Expected to Pick Up – March 23, 2018

  • 0

At 10:30 GMT, Russian Interest Rate Decision is expected to be cut to 7.25% against the current 7.50%. RUB traders will be closely following this data release. At 12:10 GMT, FOMC Member Bostic is due to speak about the economic outlook at the Knoxville Economics Forum. Audience questions are expected and comments may cause moves in USD crosses. At 12:30 GMT, US Durable Goods Orders Ex-Transportation (Feb) is expected to come in at 0.5% from -0.3% previously. Durable Goods Orders (Feb) is expected at 1.5%% v -3.7% previously. This data series missed to the downside last time out but it is expected to show recovery today. USD crosses may be heavily traded as a result of this data. At 12:30 GMT, Canadian Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Feb) is expected to be 0.5% against 0.7% previously. BOC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Feb) is expected to be 1.4% against 1.2% previously. BOC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Feb) is expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb) is expected to be 2.0% against 1.7% previously. Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (Feb) is expected to be 0.5% against 0.2% previously. Canadian Retail Sales Ex-Autos (MoM) (Jan) is expected to be 0.9% against -1.8% previously. Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) is expected to be 1.1% against -0.8% previously. Inflation is expected to strengthen after a beat last month. Retail sales are also expected to have a strong showing after missing expectations last month. This comes on the back of tariff exemptions for Canada, which sent USDCAD lower to trade just above 1.29000. CAD crosses could be affected by this release, especially if the data deviates from expectations. At 12:30 GMT, UK MPC Member Vlieghe is due to speak at the Birmingham Chamber of Commerce. Comments may cause moves in GBP pairs. At 14:00 GMT, US New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) is expected to come in at 0.623M from 0.593M previously. New Home Sales Change (MoM) (Feb) is expected at 4.4% v -7.8% previously. On the back of strong HPI data yesterday, Sales are expected to improve after falling for three months. USD crosses may be heavily traded as a result of this data. At 17:00 GMT, Baker Hughes US Rig Count numbers will be released. The prior number last Friday showed that there were 800 Oil rigs in operation. WTI traders will be paying close attention to this number as they look to the week ahead.

Выбор редакции
23 марта, 10:29

BOE Leaves Rates on Hold, 2 Out OF 9 Vote for Hike

  • 0

The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision was as expected and left rates unchanged at 0.5%. The BOE Minutes, BOE Quarterly Inflation Report and the Monetary Policy Statement were released at the same time. BOE Asset Purchase Facility was left unchanged, as expected, at £435B. While no change in rate was expected, the tone and language used hinted that the Bank is gearing up to increase rates as early as May. The votes were 7 Hold v 2 Hike. The two dissenters sited widespread evidence of near-zero slack in the labour market and accelerating wage growth. GBPUSD opened at 1.41600 and spiked up to 1.42164, before reversing lower to 1.41277 as the rally was faded after this data was released. US President Trump approved a list of tariff exempted countries including Member countries of the EU, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea. These exemptions will last until May 1st, at which point current discussions on global excess capacity will be reviewed. The notable ally missing from the list is Japan. Canada and Mexico are on the list pending the conclusion of NAFTA negotiations. German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar) was 58.4 v an expected 59.8, from 60.6 previously. Markit Services PMI (Mar) was 54.2 v an expected 55.0, from 55.3 previously. Markit PMI Composite (Mar) was 55.4 v an expected 57.0, from 57.6 prior. The slip in these data points suggests that the December reading was a short-term high. For Manufacturing, it was the highest reading since before the financial crisis and, for Services, it was the highest since June 2011. EURUSD fell from 1.23702 to 1.23511 following this data release. Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (Mar) was 56.6 v an expected 58.1, from 58.6 previously. Markit Services PMI (Mar) was 55.0 v an expected 56.0, from 56.2 previously. Markit PMI Composite (Mar) was 55.3 v an expected 56.7, from 57.1 prior. This data softened from highs in December. This puts growth on the back foot in the Eurozone and suggests a slowing in industry. EURUSD slipped further from 1.23593 to 1.23078 after the released data hit the headlines. UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) was 1.5% v an expected 1.3%, from 1.6% previously, which was revised down to 1.5%. Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) was 0.8% v an expected 0.4%, against a prior 0.1%, which was revised down to -0.2%. Retail Sales Ex-Fuel (YoY) (Feb) was 1.1% v an expected 1.2%, from 1.5% previously, which was revised down to 1.3%. Retail Sales Ex-Fuel (MoM) (Feb) was 0.6% v an expected 0.4%, against a prior 0.1%, which was revised down to -0.2%. This data shows a pickup in retail sales in February but the softer revisions take the wind out of the sails somewhat. Combined with the December and January data it shows consumer spending declined over the three months, with bad weather playing its part. GBPUSD spiked to a high of 1.41799 before selling off to 1.41328 following this data release. US Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 16) were 229K v an …

22 марта, 18:22

U.S. Jobless Claims Reach New Multi-Year Lows

  • 0

U.S. weekly Unemployment Claims data is once again in focus. The number of Continuing Jobless Claims fell to 1,828K, the lowest level since 1973. This indicator has been fluctuating around the 1900K mark since August 2017, with the current data suggesting a breakthrough to new lows, reflecting a new stage for the U.S. labor market. The number of Initial Jobless Claims also continue to decline, having reached their lowest level since 1969 a few weeks ago. It is important to understand that the labor market today is fundamentally different from that of the 1970s. The population of the United States has increased by 60% in almost half a century, which makes the recent decline in claims even more impressive. However, such low numbers for unemployment claims are in fact a reflection of the change in demography. In the 1970s, the average age of an American citizen was 28, however, according to the latest data, this is now closer to 38. Simply put, people are less insured against unemployment, as they are closer to retirement age. The influx of labor into the United States appears to be attributable to those that had previously dropped out of employment, now returning to the workforce. The low levels in unemployment claims also explain the paradox that, despite average employment growth of 243K in the last 5 months, there has been no decline in unemployment rate or wage growth.

22 марта, 17:26

AUDUSD and NZDUSD Analysis – March 22, 2018

Much of the focus on Wednesday was on the FOMC announcements, where the Fed raised their target interest rate by 0.25% but continued to see only two more rate hikes this year for a total of three. The announcement invoked a retracement in the U.S. Treasury bond yields, which benefits higher-yielding currencies such as the Aussie (AUD). AUDUSD Although AUDUSD was higher on the FOMC announcement, the pair failed to build on the gains after disappointing Australian unemployment data released overnight. The unemployment rate increased to 5.6%, from an expected 5.5% and the economy only added 17.5K new jobs, from 20K expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia will likely wait for better growth figures before moving on any monetary policy change. On the 4-hourly chart, AUDUSD failed to break resistance at 0.7780 and is now reversing into support at 0.7725. A break could open the way to a test of the trend line support at 0.7670, followed by 0.7625. On the upside, a sustained move back above 0.7780 could lead to a fresh attempt at the 200MA near 0.7820, before testing the falling resistance trend line at 0.7875. NZDUSD On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced their decision to leave interest rates at a record low 1.75%, for a sixteenth-straight month. This was accompanied by a broadly neutral statement. On the 4-hourly chart, NZDUSD broke the important 0.7200 level but recovered sharply from the daily 200MA near 0.7150. Continued bullish momentum and break of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7260 could open the way to a test of the 61.8% retracement at 0.7296, followed by a test of the falling resistance trend line. However, a reversal and break of 0.7200 could lead to a return to the lows at 0.7150.

14 марта, 16:54

USDCAD and GBPCAD Analysis – March 14, 2018

  • 0

The Canadian Dollar declined on Tuesday, after a dovish sounding speech by Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz. Poloz suggested that the pace of interest rate hikes may become more gradual, as the economy expands without triggering inflation. There was also a mention of the uncertainty over the future of U.S. trade policies. The NAFTA negotiations are a major factor reducing interest rate expectations, as the risk of the free-trade deal being scrapped is a real possibility. USDCAD The USDCAD pair caught a bid after Poloz’s speech and gained over 150 pips. However, the bullish move has so far failed to break the psychologically important 1.30 level. On the daily chart, USDCAD is capped by the highs at 1.30, and a break could trigger a rally towards resistance at 1.3048 and 1.3060. To the downside, any retracement is likely to find support at 1.2920 and 1.2860, ahead of a test of the 1.28 level. GBPCAD An upbeat statement from the UK Chancellor in the Spring Statement, where the forecast for GDP growth was upgraded, provided a boost for Sterling. Strength in GBP, combined with weakness in CAD, gave the GBPCAD cross a boost to the upside. On the daily chart, the pair is now trading above the 2017 highs of 1.80. If the trend continues, resistance is likely at 1.825 and then trend line and Fibonacci extension at 1.84. A bearish reversal and break of 1.80 would find support at 1.784 and then 1.771.

Выбор редакции
14 марта, 13:51

US 30 and Gold Analysis – March 14, 2018

  • 0

The US 30 Index fell yesterday after headlines broke that the US Sec of State was being sacked by the President. The index closed at 25007.00 (down -0.68%) on the news, pushed further down late in the US session by the President’s call for $60B worth of trade tariffs on imported Chinese goods. Sentiment remains heavy this morning, with the price moving around the 25000.00 area containing the 50 DMA. Resistance above can be seen at 25240.00, with the falling red trend line at 25415.00. A break above this area would target 25500.00, with 25700.00 above and the recent highs at 25821.00. The 26000.00 level must be taken if the all-time highs at 26700.00 are to be tested. Support can be found at 24876.7, with the rising blue trend line at 24703.0 and 24675.0 close below. This would open the way to a test of the 100 DMA at 24553.6 and the 24500.0 level. A drop under here could see a fall to 24200.0, and if that fails, to 24000.0. Support below here is a long way off at the 23616.9 level, but if the price is forced down to this area traders would push on to test the 200 DMA at 23527.0. Gold The commodity has been moving lower recently, with a couple of good trend line breaks presenting trading opportunities. It moved higher yesterday, as markets went risk-off. The price is currently trading between the moving averages, which are centred around the 1325.00 level. The resistance level 1327.50 is overhead, with the falling blue two-touch trend line at 1331.40. Above here, 1333.6 comes into play, with stronger resistance at 1340.50. The 1350.00 area has formed a zone of resistance around it, with a break above targeting recent highs at 1361.60. Support below comes at the 50-period MA at 1323.80, with the 1320.00 area underneath. Recent lows found support around 1313.00, with a drop under this zone testing stronger support centred on the 1300.00 area. Support likely to be tested on a failure of this zone comes in at 1289.40 and 1277.00.

14 марта, 11:03

Draghi Speaks, US Retail Sales and New Zealand GDP – March 14, 2018

  • 0

At 10:00 GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak at the ECB conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, in Frankfurt. His comments can influence moves in EUR pairs. At 12:30 GMT, US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) will be released, with an expected 0.3% from -0.3% previously. Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Feb) is expected at 0.4% from 0.0% prior. Retail Sales Control Group (Feb) is expected to be 0.4% from 0.0% prior. It is expected that Auto sales will be a drag on the figures as demand caused by the hurricane season has been met, with CPI data showing a 0.2% fall in auto prices. This may lessen the expected bounce back from last month’s number. USD crosses may see increased volatility around this data release. At 16:15 GMT, the ECB’s Coeure is due to make a scheduled speech and, as a member of the executive board, his comments could affect EUR crosses. At 21:45 GMT, New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4) is expected to be 0.7% against 0.6% previously. This data point has been trending lower since the high of 1.5% set in March 2013. The last four quarters have seen the numbers miss expectations on two occasions, and come in as predicted on the other two. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4) is expected to be 3.1% against 2.7% previously. At 23:50 GMT, Foreign Investment in Japanese Stocks (Mar 9) will be released. The prior reading was ¥-463.4B. Foreign Bond Investment (Mar 9) will also be released, with a previous value of ¥-1,188.5B. JPY crosses may experience volatility as a result of this data.

14 марта, 10:34

US President Trump Sacks Sec of State Tillerson and Asks for New Chinese Tariffs

  • 0

Overshadowing the economic data yesterday was the sacking of US Secretary of State Tillerson. The President nominated current CIA Director Mike Pompeo to become the new Sec of State. The President also name-dropped Larry Kudlow to fill the vacancy left by Gary Cohn as his Chief Economic Advisor. On a more market-orientated level, President Trump has proposed a doubling of the $30B-a-year package of tariffs on Chinese goods to the US being presented to him by the US Trade Representative’s office. This would represent $60B in tariffs on more than 100 Chinese produced goods ranging from electronics to furniture, to toys. This is the latest escalation in the developing trade war as protectionist policy is rolled out in the US. US stocks declined on the Tillerson story and continued lower with the news on China. The S&P 500 erased gains to finish down -0.64% at 2765.3, with the Nasdaq suffering most, down -1.19% at 7046.5. USDJPY dropped from a high of 107.289 to 106.393, while EURUSD rose from 1.2340 to 1.24071. Gold pushed higher from 1317.50 to 1327.80. The UK Budget Report was released yesterday. This is a mini-budget and outlines the government’s updated budget for the fiscal year, including infrastructure and spending projections, public finance forecasts and potential tax reforms. The OBR revised up their GDP forecast for 2018 from 1.4% to 1.5%, while the forecasts for 2019 and 2020 remained unchanged at 1.3%. A Budget Deficit of £45.2B is expected in 2017/18. UK Finance Minister Hammond said that the Government was making progress on improving the economy. EURGBP dropped in the lead up to this event and reached for a high of 0.88806 before selling off to 0.88541 afterwards. US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb) data was released, coming in as expected at 2.2%, against 2.1% previously. Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Feb) data came in as expected, unchanged at 1.8%. Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Feb) data came in as expected at 0.2%, against 0.3% previously. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Feb) data came in as expected at 0.2%, against 0.5% previously. The results of the data showed that most of the releases came in as expected, painting a mixed picture and, ultimately, giving an unclear picture of inflation. USDJPY fell from 107.289 to 106.703 due to this data. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz gave a speech titled “Today’s Labour Market and the Future of Work” at Queen’s University, in Ontario. He made the following comments: Canada may be able to handle more growth without inflation. The labour market has become a ‘good deal’ healthier over the past year but some slack still remains, and he expects increased investment and labour market churn to create more supply through higher productivity and employment. Canada is at a ‘sweet spot’ in the economic cycle, where investment and capacity-building usually take over as an engine of growth. EURCAD moved higher in reaction to the comments from 1.58968 to 1.60357. BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were …

13 марта, 16:19

Bitcoin Divides Players

  • 0

Bitcoin price has not recovered yet, with the cryptocurrency currently under further decline, now trading between $8800-$9900. The crypto market seems depressed, despite Wall Street analyst Thomas Lee’s Bitcoin Mystery Index giving a buy signal. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation is now struggling to surpass $400 billion, which begins to emerge as a new short-term resistance level. At the beginning of March, Germany declared Bitcoin as legal tender. Contrary to market expectations, this news did not have a positive impact on its price, mainly due to Germany not being a key player in the crypto industry. On the other hand, however, Germany became the first EU country to legalise the cryptocurrency, and other countries could soon follow in its steps. Big players in the crypto industry such as China and Japan have intensified their efforts to strengthen local regulation, with Japan planning to urge G20 to take steps in order to protect consumers from the risks of crypto trading and prevent the use of cryptocurrencies for money laundering. Among altcoins, NEM is the only one registering gains, up more than 21% in the last 24 hours, a rally which started with Coincheck refunds. Payments are made at the rate of $0.83, fixed at the moment of the attack. Since then, the rate has decreased twofold. CBOE Bitcoin futures expire this Wednesday, which could cause further volatility on the crypto market. For the time being, the bearish trend continues.

13 марта, 16:00

USDJPY and CADJPY Analysis – March 13, 2018

  • 0

The Japanese Yen has weakened against other major currencies in recent sessions, amid a political scandal engulfing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government. Japan’s ministry of finance reported that it altered documents relating to a discounted sale of state-owned land to a school operator associated with the Prime Minister’s wife. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will be releasing their Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes late on Tuesday, which could indicate how close the BoJ is to tightening monetary policies. USDJPY The recent release of U.S. Non-Farm Payroll data has cooled inflation fears and helped the USDJPY pair to rally. In the 4-hourly timeframe, USDJPY has broken the downtrend in place since the beginning of January and the pair is now testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 107.20. A break above this level would see a continuation to resistance at 107.90 followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci and trend line resistance at 108.40. A rejection at this level would confirm the longer term bearish trend. An immediate reversal and break of 106.50 would find support 105.90 and 105.25. CADJPY The CADJPY pair has seen a strong reversal from 81.35 amid recent Japanese Yen weakness. Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is due to give a speech today which may induce some volatility in this pair. In the 4-hourly timeframe, any further progress will be capped at 83.80, at the confluence of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal level of resistance. A break of this level could see further progress towards the 38.2% retracement at 85.30, with immediate resistance at 84.45. A bearish reversal and break of 82.40 are needed for a continuation of the bearish trend, with resistance at the lows of 81.35.