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Official FxPro Forex Broker Blog. Professional daily Forex market reviews and analysis. Economic calendar.
21 июля, 09:11

USD struggles with Trumps red line

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The US Labour Department released Jobless claims data, on Thursday, showing a drop of 15K for the week ended July 15th to 233K. This was the lowest level for 5 months and is a strong indication of a strong job market. The US labour market is at near “full employment” with the latest jobless rate at 4.4%. With such a robust set of data the markets believe this will likely keep the Federal Reserve on track to hike rates later this year and start to reduce its large bond and mortgage back securities portfolio. The ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference was held on Thursday with President Draghi acclaiming European growth. The ECB kept its easy monetary policy unchanged, as expected, with President Draghi stated “incoming data confirmed the strength of the euro zone’s economy” even though he simultaneously pledged additional stimulus if needed. And more political woes for President Trump as reports suggest that US Special Counsel Robert Mueller is expanding his investigation of President Trumps financial dealings – coming just a day after Trump told the NY Times that “any digging into his finances would cross a red line”. Following the ECB statement EUR rallied close to 1% against USD as EURUSD hit a high of 1.16568 on the day, the strongest it has been in 23 months. Currently EURUSD is trading around 1.1635 JPY weakened slightly against USD following the Bank of Japan’s announcement that they will maintain stimulus. USDJPY traded to a low on Thursday of 111.754, its largest decrease in nearly 2 weeks, before retracing to currently trade around 111.92 GBPUSD climbed off Thursday lows of 1.29326 to trade nearly a cent higher to 1.30319. GBPUSD is currently trading around 1.2985 AUDUSD traded lower following the monthly jobs report for June showing a surge in full time employment. AUD is the best performing G10 currency rising 10% in 2017. However, RBA Deputy Governor Debelle stated in a speech that “there was no significance in the board discussing the neutral rate” which caused AUD to weaken. AUDUSD is currently trading around 0.7910 Gold recovered from a low of $1,235.16 on Thursday to currently trade around $1,246.00 With a burgeoning global supply, Oil surprisingly maintained its recent strength with WTI gaining 0.6% on the day. Currently WTI is trading around $46.98pb Equity Indexes rose on Thursday with the UK100 gaining 0.6%, to trade at his highest level in a month, at 7502.69 whilst Germany30 saw its largest rise in almost a week. At 11:30 BST the Office of National Statistics (ONS) will publish UK Borrowing data for June. As we are in the early stages of the financial year it is usually very difficult to draw any meaningful inferences on the state of public finances. At 15:30 BST Statistics Canada will release Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun). The market consensus is for 1.1% which will improve on the previous 1.3% reading. The Bank of Canada has targeted that inflation stay in a 1% to 3% range. …

20 июля, 09:42

All Eyes on Central Banks

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Markets were, for the most part, little changed on Wednesday as traders waited for today’s Bank of Japan and ECB rate decisions. Earlier today the Bank of Japan maintained its heavy monetary stimulus and gave signs that it is in no hurry to rein in stimulus, unlike many of its Central Bank counterparts. The US Energy Information Administration report on Wednesday showed a draw of -4.7 million barrels in US commercial inventories. Along with the Baker Hughes report, showing no new Oil Rigs had been added since the last report, both reports gave some respite to the recent edgy Oil market. The upward move may be short-lived as Ecuador announced its plans to abandon OPEC’s production cut deal and boost production to boost its finances. The timing of Ecuador’s decision will further concern the markets as they wait for the next meeting of OPEC and Russian energy ministers next week that many believe will result in an announcement of deeper production cuts. The markets are now waiting for the ECB meeting later today and any hints from President Draghi that the ECB maybe less inclined to increase the size, or duration, of its asset-purchase program. EURUSD retreated from its highest close since August 2015 as the market looked toward the ECB’s plans for stimulus measures and the possibility of a change of tone when the decision is announced later today. Currently EURUSD is trading around 1.1512 JPY weakened slightly after the BOJ pushed back its projected timing for hitting its 2% inflation target, as it cut price forecasts until fiscal year 2020. Currently USDJPY is trading around 112.12 GBPUSD was virtually unchanged from its opening price to last nights close as many are awaiting the release of UK Retail Sales today to gauge if the Bank of England’s monetary policy is working, or if a rise in interest rates is required. Currently GBPUSD is trading around 1.3022 AUD remains strong against USD gaining nearly 0.4% yesterday and adding to recent highs reaching 0.7955 on the Wednesday – a level not seen since March 2015. Currently AUDUSD is trading around 0.7942 Oil reacted with yesterday’s release of US Oil inventories that showed a larger than expected drawdown of -4.727 million compared to the expected -3.214 million. Following the release WTI traded up 1.6% to reach a high on Wednesday of $47.36pb. Currently WTI is trading at $47.32pb Gold remains buoyed by USD weakness but traded in a narrow range on Wednesday. Gold is currently trading around $1,239 At 9:45 BST UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) will be released with many expecting a better performance of 0.4% compared to the previous poor -1.2%. Consumer spending in the UK is expected higher during the summer months and will clearly impact inflation which, in turn, will impact the likelihood, and timing, of future interest rates hikes. At 12:45 BST the ECB Interest Rate decision will be announced followed at 13:30 BST with the ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference. Markets are not expecting …

19 июля, 09:08

Dollar Bears

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UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released on Tuesday showing inflation easing for the first time in nearly 10 months, retreating from the near 4-year high touched in May, as fuel prices fell substantially in the UK in June. The consumer price index increased by an annual rate of 2.6% in June, falling below the consensus forecast of 2.9%, and below the 2.9% rise recorded in May. UK inflation is above the BoE’s 2.0% target for the 5th straight month, but the slowdown in the rate of inflation is likely to dull calls from some of the UK Monetary Policy Committee members for a near-term hike in UK interest rates. USD fell back to an 11-month low against many of its G-10 counterparts as President Trump’s economic revitalization agenda stumbled with his health care reform bill “dead in the water”, as 2 more of his own party’s Senators announced their opposition to the plan. EUR gained nearly 1% on the day versus USD as EURUSD reached a high of 1.15828, levels not seen for over 1 year. The market is cautious of pushing EURUSD too high for fear that the European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday proves less hawkish than the bulls are hoping for. Currently, EURUSD is trading around 1.1535. GBP fared poorly against overall USD weakness as CPI data showed UK inflation falling in June. GBPUSD traded down as the data was released, moving from the day’s high of 1.31251 to trade as low as 1.30044 on the day. Currently, GBPUSD is trading around 1.3040. The USD bears were seen in USDJPY as the USD sell-off saw the pair back off from early highs of 112.618, to give up 0.7% on the day to trade as low as 111.681. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep economic policy unchanged at its scheduled meeting on Thursday. Currently, USDJPY is trading around 112.15. AUDUSD improved over 1.8% on the day as a resolute Reserve Bank of Australia stated it isn’t ready to join global Central Banks in reducing policy stimulus. AUDUSD traded off early lows of 0.77859 to trade up to a new 2 year high of 0.79424 on the day. Currently, AUDUSD is trading around 0.7930. Ahead of today’s EIA report on US Oil Inventories WTI has also benefitted from USD weakness, trading from $46.02pb to a high on the day of $47.12pb. The US EIA Inventories data releasing today will likely cause significant volatility in Oil. WTI is currently trading around $46.50pb. Gold gained 0.7% on the day to trade as high as $1,243.30, a level not seen since the start of July. Currently, Gold is trading around $1,241. At 13:30 BST US Housing Starts (MoM) (Jun) will be released. The consensus is for an improvement to 1.150 Million from the previous reading of 1.092 Million. An improved number will be seen as vindication that the US economy is growing, amid recent mixed economic data releases. At 15:30 BST the United States Energy Information Administration …

18 июля, 09:38

US Administration Agenda Falters

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Fading support for President Trump is weighing on USD, as the US administration is finding it difficult to get enough backers in the Senate to pass the healthcare reform bill, raising questions about how the rest of its ambitious agenda would fare. USD was also weakened by the fading likelihood of US interest rates rising in the near term, the likelihood of a rate hike in December has fallen below 50%. The minutes from the July Reserve Bank of Australia meeting showed the RBA remains focused on keeping its monetary policy easy to suit domestic conditions and that data on labor and the housing market will continue to be closely watched. The RBA commented that strength in the jobs market removed some downside risks in wage forecasts, while signaling it isn’t ready to join global Central Banks in reducing policy stimulus. Such comments suggest the likelihood of a hike in AUD interest rates is unlikely to happen anytime soon. EURUSD bounced from a low of 1.14345 on Monday to reach a high of 1.14742 on the day, as data released showed Eurozone final CPI data for June was in-line with expectations. Overnight EURUSD has broken the “psychological” 1.15 level to reach a high of 1.15375 – a level not seen since April 2016. Currently, EURUSD is trading around 1.1530. With the Marine Day holiday in Japan on Monday, the market was relatively for USDJPY which traded in a tight range of 112.34 to 112.769. Overnight USD weakness has seen USDJPY trade as low as 111.983. Currently, USDJPY is trading around 112.10. GBPUSD retraced slightly after hitting 10 months’ highs last week. Much uncertainty remains as the UK began “round 2” of Brexit discussions in Brussels on Monday. It is likely any information coming out of these discussions will impact GBP. Currently, GBPUSD is trading around 1.3105. Following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes of its July 4th meeting, AUDUSD climbed to trade as high as 0.7908 in early trading. AUDUSD is currently trading near the day’s highs. Oil backed off from highs set in early Monday trading of $47.03pb to trade slightly lower to $46.45 on the day. Oil has stayed relatively strong of late, as the markets note that fewer drilling rigs were added in the US, which has helped ease concerns that rising US shale supplies will undermine OPEC production cuts. A further sign of strong demand came from data released on Monday showing refineries in China increased crude throughput in June to the 2nd highest on record. OPEC hopes higher demand in the 2nd half of 2017 will get rid of excess inventory. Currently, WTI is little changed trading around $46.25pb. Gold continued its recent upward trend also benefitting from USD weakness. A rise of 0.4% on the day saw Gold reach a high of $1,235.27 on Monday and the trend has continued into Tuesday with Gold trading as high as $1,238.71. Currently, it is trading around $1,238. At 09:30 BST, UK Consumer Price …

17 июля, 09:13

More Record Highs for Equities?

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Early indications from Asia this morning are pointing towards a strong day for global equities, continuing the momentum from last week. Data released shows China GDP at 6.9% (markets had expected 6.8%), indicating the Chinese economy has stabilized. In addition, Chinese President Jinping said that “the central bank will play a stronger role in defending against risks” and he called for more work on safeguarding the financial system and modernizing its regulatory framework. The buoyant Global equity markets were also helped as Chicago Federal Reserve President Evans expressed concerns on Friday about the Fed’s inflation target running below 2% and that such economic conditions required a very gradual rise in interest rates. The most recent CME Fedwatch tool has seen the chances of a December hike in US rates fall to 43.1% from 55%. As global economic conditions improve, and with a degree of caution on raising interest rates too quickly, one can foresee global equities remaining strong and reaching new highs. Japanese markets are closed today for Marine Day. In relatively quiet early trading EURUSD is trading around 1.1460, staying close its yearly high. GBPUSD has been a major recipient of recent USD weakness and is currently trading around the psychological 1.3100 level. With the Japanese holiday today USDJPY trading has been lackluster and is currently trading around 112.60. Gold has risen 0.2% so far on the day, to currently trade around $1,231. After last week’s indication of lower US inventories and stronger demand, Oil has continued to move higher and currently trades 0.2% higher at today’s high of $46.90. The major focus today will be the release of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun) at 10:00 BST. With the markets expecting an unchanged number at 1.2%, traders will be interested to see how the Eurozone is fairing compared to other Global Economies and if the current increase in sentiment in Europe’s economies is holding true.

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14 июля, 17:13

[Update] MT4 & MT5 to Stop Supporting Windows XP

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We would like to inform you that, as of Sunday, October 1, 2017, the MetaTrader 4 & 5 platforms will no longer support outdated versions of the Windows operating system including Windows XP, Windows 2003 and Windows Vista. MetaQuotes has made this decision as these outdated operating systems are no longer supported by Microsoft and feature a number of dangerous vulnerabilities. The minimum required operating system to run the MT4 and MT5 platforms will now be Windows 7, although MetaQuotes strongly suggests using the 64-bit version of Windows 10, to fully benefit from the latest updates and support. If your operating system does not meet the new minimum requirements, we offer alternative ways to access both the MT4 and MT5 platforms including FxPro MT4 WebTrader, FxPro MT5 WebTrader, FxPro MT4 Mobile and FxPro MT5 Mobile. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us.

14 июля, 09:33

US Labour Market Strengthens

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The Federal Reserve appears to be on track for a 3rd interest rate increase for the year as recent data releases appear to show US economic policies are on track. The US Labour Department released data that showed Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped 3K to a seasonally adjusted 247K for the week ended July 8. This is the latest indication that the US labor market strength is sustaining economic growth. Separately, the Producer Price Index rose 0.1% in June, after being unchanged in the previous release. Core PPI increased 2% in the 12 months through June after climbing 2.1% in May. Fed Chair Yellen finished her testimony to Congress and expressed confidence in the US economy and monetary tightening would be a gradual process. This “slow and gradual” process came after indications from Central Bankers that stimulative policies may no longer be required as the overall global market strengthens. US and European Equities were in striking distance of recent record highs, with some profit taking slowing the upward momentum. Asian equities have also performed strongly with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index up 2.6% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng posting a 4% rise on the week. USD is somewhat stagnant against its major counterparts, with little change overnight as the markets wait for today’s economic data releases. Currently EURUSD is trading around 1.1410, GBPUSD: 1.2960, USDJPY: 113.40, AUDUSD: 0.7745 & USDCAD: 1.2730. Gold bounced from early lows of $1,214.67 to trade currently around $1,218.25. WTI is trading near the day’s highs around $46.30pb and looks set to have a 4% rise on the week. At 11:00 BST EUR Trade Balance for May will be released. The consensus calls for a moderate increase to €20.3 Billion from the previous €19.6 Billion. With markets expectations being met, by recent CPI readings from France & Germany, the EUR may stay in demand against its major counterparts. At 13:30 BST the US will release a plethora of data; Retails Sales, Consumer Price Index & Industrial Production. There may be mixed reactions from the market as Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) are expected to show a 0.1% rise compared to the previous reading of -0.3% and CPI (YoY) (Jun) is expected to come in at 1.7% down from the previous release of 1.9%. Retail Sales up should provoke USD buying but CPI down would typically result in USD selling. Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun) may help determine the direction of USD, as the market is expecting a release of 0.3% (previously 0.0%) – which may be regarded as inflationary, thereby seeing interest rates rising and USD buying.

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13 июля, 09:16

Yellen’s Dovish Tone

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US equities continued upward on Wednesday, with the DJ30 improving 0.5% on the day and trading to an all-time high of 21,576.90. The impetus behind this was Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress that she had confidence in the US economy and suggesting that US inflation will not force the Fed’s hand. In other words, there will be no rush to tighten monetary policy (aka raise interest rates). USD fell against the majors and gold as the markets are still digesting the release of emails from Donald Trump Jr. regarding his controversial meeting with a Russian lawyer during last year’s presidential campaign. The “scandal” could delay US fiscal stimulus initiatives, which would hold back many corporations spending plans. As expected the Bank of Canada raised interest rates for the first time in 7 years, increasing the overnight rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. The interest rate increase had been widely expected after senior Bank of Canada officials signaled recently that lower rates had done their job, and the Canadian economy was performing well with growth for 2017 expected to improve to 2.8%. USDJPY lost 0.4% on the day trading from an early high of 113.714 to a low on the day of 112.922. USDJPY is currently trading around 113.00. EURUSD gave up some of its early gains after hitting a 14-month high of 1.14791. Currently EURUSD is trading around 1.1448. Better than expected UK Payroll data, and UK Unemployment falling to a 43 year low of 4.5%, saw GBPUSD climb off early lows to trade as high as 1.29069 on the day. Similarly, EURGBP backed off from early highs giving up 0.5% on the day. However, wage growth continued to fall behind inflation which could result in interest rate increases being delayed as the UK Monetary Policy Committee have made it clear that they would want to see a “firming” in wage growth before voting to raise rates. Currently, GBPUSD is trading around 1.2900 and EURGBP is around 0.8875. With the expected 0.25% interest rate rise by the Bank of Canada, USDCAD continued its recent downward path with USD giving up over 1.6% on Wednesday to trade as low as 1.26955. The markets are expecting further growth in the Canadian economy which may lead to further rate increases before the end of 2017. USDCAD is currently trading around 1.2748. Gold extended its recent gains gaining 0.5% on the day to trade as high as $1,225.60. Gold is currently trading around $1,223.70. WTI rose above $46.50pb on Wednesday as data of declining inventories in the US raised hopes that the glut is easing. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that domestic crude supplies dropped 7.6 million barrels for the week ended July 7. However, OPEC stated on Wednesday that its oil production rose in June and forecasts that world demand for its crude will decline next year as rivals pump more, pointing to a market surplus in 2018 despite an OPEC-led output cut. WTI is currently trading around $45.55pb. At 13:30 BST …

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12 июля, 09:16

US Political Uncertainty = Lower USD

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Markets were somewhat languid as traders focused on today’s Congressional Testimony by Fed Chair Yellen, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision and the latest US Crude Oil Inventory data release. However, news was released that President Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr, was told in an email that Russia wanted to aid his father’s Presidential campaign. Donald Trump Jr was forced to release damning emails showing that he welcomed what he was told was a Russian government attempt to harm Hillary Clinton’s election campaign. The emails show music promoter Rob Goldstone telling the future US president’s son that “the crown prosecutor of Russia” had offered “to provide the Trump campaign with some official documents and information that would incriminate Hillary and her dealings with Russia and would be very useful to your father” to which Trump Jr. replied “I love it!”. Could more US Political turmoil be ahead? Such news saw a sell off for USD and US equities. USDJPY reached highs not seen since early March, trading up to 114.494, representing a 0.4% gain on Tuesday, before giving back these gains to trade as low as 113.31 overnight. Currently, USDJPY is trading around 113.50. EURUSD has reached levels not seen for 14 months as USD retreated yesterday and EUR has continued to strengthen overnight. Currently, EURUSD is trading around 1.1480 after reaching a high so far today of 1.14888. NZDUSD was down on the day following reports from the US Geological Survey that a tremor, measuring 6.8 magnitude and at a depth of 6.2 miles, had been registered 122 miles north west of Auckland. After opening at 0.7257, NZDUSD traded down to 0.72011. Currently NZDUSD is trading around 0.7240. EURGBP reached levels not seen since November last year, trading up to 0.89129 on Tuesday, a 0.75% gain on the day. The recent strength in EUR, coupled with unimpressive UK economic data releases and continued domestic uncertainty in the UK, has resulted in GBP weakness – especially against its European counterpart. EURGBP has strengthened more overnight to reach a high of 0.8938 and is currently trading just below this level at around 0.8930. GBP also weakened against USD trading down from an early high of 1.29268 to a low of 1.28306 on Tuesday. GBPUSD is currently trading around 1.2850. Gold recovered from early lows set at $1,208.06 to rebound as high as $1,217.27 on Tuesday. Of note were recently released statistics that showed, during the first half of 2017, Indian buyers brought in a full 521 tonnes of gold. This is more than the import total for the whole of 2016, when just 510 tonnes of bullion was imported for the year. If this level is maintained, then imports for all of 2017 could be greater than 1,000 tonnes – an amount not seen for over 5 years. Bullish sentiment remains as Gold is currently trading at the session high of $1,220.43. Oil gained as much as 1.6% on the day, as OPEC’s Secretary General Barkindo, when asked by reporters …

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11 июля, 09:22

Economic Growth Back on Track?

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US equities continued to advance, helped by technology companies, with the S&P 500 rising on Monday following last week’s sell-off with the index moving from 2421.06 up to 2429.13 on Monday. The market is now starting to analyze Q2 earnings for more indications that global economic growth is progressing as expected by many analysts – in turn helping push USD higher. As Global equities close in on reaching record highs, political uncertainty has taken a back seat to expected global economic growth. Recently released data indicated that Germany had a higher than expected trade surplus and recent employment data out of the US showed employers adding the most jobs for the past 4 months – suggesting a degree of buoyancy in growth. On Tuesday, in Sydney, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Williams stated “that it was a reasonable view to expect one more rate hike this year, and his own view was to start adjusting the central bank’s balance sheet in the next few months”. USDJPY rose to a high on Monday of 114.298, a 0.3% gain and the highest it has traded at since May 11th. BOJ Governor Kuroda reiterated his stance to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy until inflation is stable above its 2% target, a sign the BoJ will not join its U.S. and European counterparts in easing stimulus anytime soon. Currently, USDJPY is trading higher at around 114.38. EURUSD traded in a narrow range on Monday of less than 40 pips, 0.4% compared to the average trading range for 2017 of 0.7%; 1.13813 to 1.14177. Currently, EURUSD is trading around 1.1388. GBPUSD also traded in a narrow range compared to recent trading sessions of 0.4% compared to the average trading range for 2017 of 0.8%. An early morning high of 1.29079 retraced lower to 1.28545. Currently, GBPUSD is trading around 1.2874. Oil traded up 0.2% on the day as traders analyzed the potential effectiveness of both Libya and Nigeria capping production. Both countries have been invited to a meeting in Russia on July 24th to discuss their production outlook. If Libya and Nigeria both agree to production cuts the markets are expecting oil prices to rise even with the heavy supply from non-OPEC producers. On Monday, WTI traded up from a low of $43.76pb to trade to a high of $44.96pb. Currently, WTI is trading lower at around $44.68pb. Gold hit a 4-month low on Monday trading as low as $1,204.71 before rebounding higher to $1,215.44. Gold is currently trading lower at $1,211. At 13:15 BST Canadian Housing Starts (YoY) (Jun) are scheduled to be released. CAD has been strong against USD of late as the markets are expecting an imminent rise in Canadian Interest rates. The previous release of 194.7K is expected to be bettered with the consensus suggesting a figure of 201.5K. Any stronger number will likely see CAD appreciate further against USD.

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10 июля, 09:14

US Data brings on USD bulls

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U.S. job growth surged more than expected in June and employers increased hours for workers, with signs of a labor market strengthening that is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on course for a 3rd interest rate increase this year, despite lackluster inflation. Non-farm payrolls increased by 222,000 jobs in June beating expectations for a 179,000 gain. Data for April and May was revised to show 47,000 more jobs were created than previously reported. US unemployment rose to 4.4%, from a 16-year low of 4.3%, because more people were looking for work; a sign of confidence in the labor market. The jobless rate has dropped 0.4% this year and is close to the most recent Fed median forecast for 2017. UK data released on Friday showed output by British factories unexpectedly fell in May, indicating that the UK economy has struggled to gain any momentum after a slow start to 2017 and further raising questions about the likelihood of the Bank of England raising interest rates this year. Markets were expecting an increase of 0.5% in Manufacturing Production (MoM) but were surprised with a very poor reading of -0.2%. GBPUSD reacted immediately dropping from 1.2955 to 1.28664 (-0.7%) whilst EURGBP climbed from 0.87964 to 0.88602 (+0.55%). GBPUSD is currently trading around 1.2905 and EURGBP around 0.8840. The G20 meeting in Hamburg over the weekend had little to no impact on the markets. The highlights were the first-time meetings of Trump, Putin & Xi Jinping. The general undertone was that this was the G19 plus 1 meeting as the US was not a particularly welcome attendee. USDJPY initially dropped by 0.6% on Friday, to trade as low as 113.148, before rebounding higher following the NFP to reach a high of 114.176 – a 0.8% increase on the day. In early trading USDJPY is around 114.15. EURUSD had a similar story reaching a high of 1.14393 after the data release before retracing down to a low of 1.13791 a relatively small loss of 0.2% on the day. Currently EURUSD is trading around 1.1410. Gold had heavy selling pressure, dropping 1% on Friday to trade as low as $1,207.17 – close to a 4-month low. Gold is down over 1.6% on the week resulting in its worst performance since May. Currently Gold is trading around $1,212. WTI closed down 4% on the week as the decline in US inventories did not convince traders that global production was anywhere near rebalancing. On Friday WTI traded down 1.8% to hit a low of $43.88pb. Currently WTI is trading around $44.65pb. Today & Tomorrow is light on impactful economic data releases – traders are focusing on Wednesday July 12 when, at 09:30 BST, the UK will release its Average Earnings Index followed, at 15:00 BST, by the Bank of Canada interest rate decision and Fed Chair Yellen’s Testimony.

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07 июля, 09:24

Data Clues

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Data released on Thursday indicated that U.S. private employers hired fewer workers than expected in June and applications for unemployment benefits last week increased for a 3rd straight week. It would therefore appear that there is some “cooling” in the US Labour Market as it approaches full employment. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that private sector payrolls increased by 158K jobs in June, down from the 230K positions created in May and below many expectations for a gain of 185K. As a result of these lackluster figures, that are often correlated with Non-Farm Payroll data, USD was sold off during the day. The G20 meeting starts today in Hamburg, Germany. Of note, will be the first meeting of President Trump and President Putin as well as his first meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Trade discussions will be “strained” as many have criticized the US’s protectionism stance. EURUSD gained nearly 0.7% on the day trading from 1.13294 to as high as 1.14244 and is currently trading at 1.1410. After some early USD buying that saw USDJPY trade up to 113.468, the bears entered the market pushing USDJPY down to 112.882. Since hitting that low USDJPY has retraced to trade above yesterday’s highs, currently trading at 113.70, as the Bank of Japan announced its first unlimited fixed-rate bond purchase since February. GBP benefited from USD selling as it climbed from a low of 1.29192 to post a 0.3% gain on the day to reach a high of 1.2983. GBPUSD is currently trading at 1.2955. CAD remains strong against USD as the markets have priced in a rise in Canadian interest rates sooner rather than later. USDCAD traded 0.2% lower to establish a low of 1.29227 on the day before retracing higher. Currently USDCAD is trading around 1.2990. Gold seems to have stabilized above a technical support area around $1,219 and traded as high as $1.229.10 on Thursday before retracing back to currently trade at $1,220.50. After falling 4% on Wednesday, as Russia claimed to be opposed to any additional production cuts, Oil recovered as the EIA reported Crude Oil inventories falling to 6.299 Million, significantly more than the expected draw of 2.283 Million. US strategic oil reserves are now at a 12-year low, but increased Shale production provides “insurance” against potential shortages i.e. the US does not need to store as much Oil as it used to. The initial reaction to the report saw WTI trade up from $45.80pb to $46.62pb (a 1.5% gain on the day) before retracing back to close near $45.50pb. WTI has given up yesterday’s gains to currently trades around $45.15 Today at 13:30 BST: Markets have been waiting for today’s Non-Farm Payroll release with much anticipation. The recent tightening by the Fed, and their less hawkish tone of late, ensures that market sentiment will change dramatically if this release is wildly outside of the market consensus of 179K. Following May’s weak and disappointing release of 138K, the Fed will be looking to see if …