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20 июля, 17:24

EURNZD Wave Analysis – 20 July , 2018

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• EURNZD reversed from resistance zone • Likely to fall further EURNZD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the key resistance level 1.7300 (which has been reversing the price from May) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active short-term ABC correction (ii) from the end of June. EURNZD is likely to fall further and re-test the next support level 1.7120 (low of the previous impulse wave i).

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20 июля, 17:23

Sugar Wave Analysis – 20 July , 2018

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• Sugar reversed from support zone • Likely to rise further Sugar recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the key support level 0.1090 (which stopped the sharp downtrend in April) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone completed the previous medium-term ABC correction (2) from the end of May. Given the oversold value of the daily Stochastic indicator – Sugar is likely to rise further and re-test the next resistance level 0.1154.

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20 июля, 11:05

USD defense following Trump’s comments will probably be short-lived

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The dollar index reached the one-year highs on Wednesday due to the demand for safe assets. USDX reached level 95.43 on Thursday, breaking the peak levels from November and May-June. However, Trump’s comments have caused pressure on the American currency, throwing the dollar from the recently achieved highs. U.S. president in an interview CNBC noted that the yuan “was dropping like a rock”, and the rising dollar and higher interest rates raise concerns about the potential impact on the economy. The strengthening of the currency makes the production of local companies comparatively expensive, which is able to slow growth. At the same time, the weakening of the dollar has not yet unfolded the demand for protective assets, including bonds, and the decline in shares. On Thursday and Friday morning fears about the escalation of trade wars between USA and China caused a new easing of yuan, as well as pressure on the stock markets. On Friday morning the yuan sank to new lows compared to the last 13 months. Since the beginning of the month CNY lost 3%, and for three months of active sales it sagged 9%. Chinese largest companies also remain under pressure on Friday morning, despite the weakness of the national currency, which often supports stocks. The EURUSD pair fell on Thursday to 1.1575 but rose to 1.1676 due to market reaction to the Trump’s comments. At the moment the pair stabilized around 1.1650. For the year from January 2017 to January 2018 EURUSD added more than 20%, on accelerating eurozone growth and low inflation in the US, but half of this increase was erased in the first half of this year, when fears around trade wars and a more stringent tone of the Fed caused an increase in demand for the U.S. currency. It is not necessary to overestimate the influence of comments of the U.S. President. Previously, it was limited and short-lived. He has repeatedly expressed such a point of view, but it did not prevent the Fed to tighten the policy and it even increased its pace. It should also be remembered that similar comments in Davos at the beginning of the year caused an immediate reaction to the weakening but had no long-term consequences. The American dollar soon after the similar comments of Trump and Mnuchin stopped a month-long fall and soon turned to growth.

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19 июля, 18:08

EURGBP Wave Analysis – 19 July , 2018

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• EURGBP broke key resistance level 0.8890 • Likely to rise further EURGBP recently broke above the key resistance level 0.8890 (which stopped the previous waves (i) and i in June and July, as can be seen below). The breakout of the resistance level 0.8890 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the medium-term impulse wave (C) from May. EURGBP is likely to rise further and re-test the next resistance level 0.8970 (top of wave (B) and the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).

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19 июля, 18:01

Palladium Wave Analysis – 19 July , 2018

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• Palladium broke round support level 900.00 • Likely to fall further Palladium continues to fall sharply after the earlier breakout of the key round support level 900.00 (which stopped the previous medium-term impulse wave (C) in April, as can be seen from the daily Palladium chart below). The breakout of the support level 900.00 accelerated the active medium-term ABC wave (2) from the middle of April. Palladium is likely to fall further and re-test the next support level 840.00 (former support from July of last year).

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18 июля, 18:39

GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 18 July , 2018

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• GBPUSD broke key support level 1.3070 • Likely to fall further GBPUSD recently broke through the key support level 1.3070 (which has been repeatedly reversing the price from last October, as can be seen from the daily GBPUSD chart below). The breakout of this the support level 1.3070 accelerated the active medium-term impulse wave (3) from the start of July. GBPUSD is likely to fall further and re-test the next resistance level 1.2900 (former support from August of 2017).

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18 июля, 18:37

Natural Gas Wave Analysis – 18 July , 2018

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• Natural Gas broke support area • Likely to fall further Natural Gas recently broke through the support area lying between the key support level 2.770 (which also reversed the price in May) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from March. The breakout of this support area accelerated the active medium-term ABC corrective wave 2 from the middle of June. Natural Gas is likely to fall further and re-test the next support level 2.700 (monthly low form May and the forecast price for the completion of the active wave 2).

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18 июля, 14:24

The potential of USD growth is limited

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Powell’s speech with the semiannual report in the U.S. Congress contained an optimistic view on the economic outlook. Such a tone has reduced fears that trade wars will negatively affect economic valuations. The Fed’s confidence that the years ahead of the low unemployment and sustained growth have increased the demand for risks at the stock markets. As a result, S&P500 has overcome the downturn of the previous two trading sessions and has updated the highs since February, rising by 0.6%. The credibility of the Fed’s forecasts is an important factor for markets. The optimism in the estimates supports the stock indices. In the morning the Asian platforms have picked up the relay, also adding about 0.6%-1.0%. Powell’s speech also helped U.S. currency. The dollar index has added 0.5% on comments that the Fed intends the raising of rates regularly further. As a result, the Dollar index returned to the area of the trading range highs for the last year. The EURUSD pair fell to 1.1650 to start of the Wednesday, USDJPY has reached 113 – the highest level for the last six months. It should be noted that the simultaneous growth of the dollar and American stocks is quite rare and short-term phenomenon. Strengthening of the dollar reduces the competitiveness of American companies and it is often caused by a tighter monetary policy that harms equities. However, this time it is still more likely that markets will continue to grow, while USD will lose its momentum. Entered tariffs and strengthened over the last year oil spur inflation, which undermines the real value of the dollar. A recent update of IMF projections has highlighted the trend towards accelerating growth in Emerging economies and slowing the developed. The impressive US trade deficit is alarming, which also negatively affects the currency exchange rate. It should also be noted that the Fed’s plans for 4 increases this year were confirmed by yesterday’s speech but had already been taken into account by the markets earlier. Under these conditions, the dollar again could become in the offensive, as it was in the 2000s, when the dollar retreated to most currencies. From the technical perspective, strengthening of the dollar in the area of current highs, near 95 on the index DXY In November of the last year, and also in May-June of this year was accompanied by increasing of pressure on the American currency. This area of resistance can act again as a serious obstacle if new drivers for the dollar do not appear.

Выбор редакции
18 июля, 13:23

Major data releases for today, July 18:

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Britain’s employment rate numbers missed the expectations. Jobless Claims rose to 7.8K in June. The data was lower than expectations after unexpected high data in the previous month. The payroll figures were in line with expectations and also confirmed the decrease of growth rate that took place a few months ago. GBP experienced the downward pressure. GBP/USD declined from 1.3260 to 1.3090 to the lows of November 2017. US Industrial Production was released with the numbers that slightly exceeded expectations. The growth in June was 0.6%, manufacturing production data growth was 0.8%. However, negative review of the previous data decreased optimism following the higher than expected current release. US Building permits will be published today at 12:30 GMT with the expected growth of numbers after three months of declining in a row. The housing market is a strong indicator of consumer activity. This growth can support the markets. At 18:00 GMT the markets will be focused on the publishing of Fed Beige Book. Previous releases pointed out the business concerns over the steel tariffs and trade wars in general. However, Powel’s optimism yesterday creates a room for expectations that Fed expects this factor to be limited which should allow it to follow the course of the monetary policy.

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17 июля, 17:23

CHFJPY Wave Analysis – 17 July , 2018

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• CHFJPY broke resistance zone • Likely to rise further CHFJPY recently broke through the resistance zone lying between the key resistance level 112.00 (which has reversed the price multiple times from March) and 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse (3) from February. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave C from last month. CHFJPY is likely to rise further and re-test the next resistance level 113.50 (forecast price for the termination of the active wave (4)).

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17 июля, 17:22

WTI Wave Analysis – 17 July , 2018

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• WTI broke support zone • Likely to fall further WTI recently broke below the support zone lying between the round support level 70.00 and 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse 3 from June. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave C which belongs to the ABC correction 4 from last month. WTI is likely to fall further and re-test the next support level 66.80 (former resistance level from the middle of June).

Выбор редакции
17 июля, 13:08

Major data releases for today:

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New Zealand Consumer Price Index data was released and its numbers showed that the rate of growth accelerates to 1.5% (YoY) against expected 1.6%. Although the data was weaker than it was supposed, NZD showed a growth in result, as inflation was higher than 1.1% (QoQ). The growth to target 2% indicates the higher inflation pressure and approximates the moment of the policy tightening. Among major releases for today, the most important one is the employment data in Britain. The markets will be focused on unemployment claims with the expected growth of 2.3K. Last month this release showed an unexpected decline by 7.7K, although the overall trend is towards the growth, which is the sign of the labour market worsening. Also the markets will be focused on wages data. The rate of growth in Britain was falling during the previous three months after it had reached a peak at 2.8% in February. It is also worth paying attention to industrial production data in the US. The numbers showed a decline of 0.1% (May), although the annual growth rate of 3.5% remains very healthy. This release is the clear evidence that the US economy deals successfully with the higher interest rates and import levies that were introduced earlier this year. However, Powell’s speech in the US Congress will be the main focus for markets and traders. This is the first semi-annual report on the monetary policy for the new Fed chairman. His comments about the prospects of the monetary policy may affect the dollar and the markets in general.