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24 апреля, 14:07

EUR/USD Consolidates Post French Election Surge

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EUR/USD has rebounded since April 11, as a result of the weakening of the dollar. The outcome of the first-round voting of the French presidential election was revealed on Sunday night April 23. As consensus, the top two candidates: the independent centrist Macron and the far-right wing Le Pen, won 23.7% and 21.7% of votes respectively. They will the second-round of voting on May 7. As Macron got the first place, surpassing Le Pen with 2% of votes, market concerns over the EU’s collapse after Le Pen’s presidency has been eased to an extent. Markets’ confidence on Macron’s victory in the second-round has also been lifted. The outcome of the first-round voting pushed the Euro up. EUR/USD soared and broke the resistance level at 1.0800, hitting the highest level of 1.0918 since November 11 on Sunday night. However, the price retraced afterwards, as the pressure at the 1.0900 resistance level is heavy. The price has been consolidating during early European session. The 4-hourly and the daily Stochastic Oscillator readings are both above 70, be aware of a correction prior to the next rally. The resistance level is at 1.0880, followed by 1.0900 and 1.0920. The support line is at 1.0835, followed by 1.0820 and 1.0800.

24 апреля, 11:06

Market Concerns Eased After Macron’s First Round Victory

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The first-round voting of the French presidential election was revealed on Sunday night April 23. The two top candidates: independent centrist Macron and the far-right wing Le Pen, won 23.7% and 21.7% of votes respectively. Fillion and the far-left wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon both got around 19% of votes. The result was in line with expectations, black swans didn’t appear. The terror attack that occurred on April 20 in Paris was likely to give Le Pen one last push just a few days ahead of the election. However, the votes Le Pen got were even lower than the recent polls of 23%, indicating the probability of her presidency is lower than expectations. As Macron got the first place in the first-round of voting, surpassing Le Pen with 2% of votes, market concerns over the EU’s collapse after Le Pen’s presidency has been eased to an extent. The consensus was that Macron and the Le Pen would likely get into the second round with Macron likely winning the final vote. The outcome is in line with the first half of the consensus. Markets are now focused on the second-round of voting with the first-round outcome lifting market confidence and expectations on Macron’s victory in the second-round on May 7. The voting ratio was around 80%, higher than the forecast of 70%, indicating French civilians’ high concerns on the futures of France and the EU. The outcome of the first-round voting pushed the EUR and European stocks up, and weighed on safe havens. EUR/USD soared more than 180 points, hitting the highest level of 1.0918 since November 11, 2016. EUR/JPY hit a 1-month high of 120.72. USD/JPY hit a 2-week high of 110.53. Spot gold plunged from 1284.17 to a 2-week low of 1265.38. France’s CAC 40 index hit the highest level of 5393 since January 2008. The Euro 50 index hit the highest level of 3578.10 since March 2015.

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21 апреля, 15:10

EUR/GBP Tests Major Support Ahead of the French Election

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EUR/GBP has retraced since March 13. Tuesday April 18, EUR/GBP hit the lowest level of 0.8312 since December 5, due to the UK early general election shock. However, the downtrend was held above the significant mid-term major support level at 0.8300 since then. The first-round voting of the French presidential election will be held this Sunday April 23. The consensus is that the Centrist Macron and the far-right wing Le Pen would likely get into the second round, then Macron would likely win the final vote. If result of the first-round turns out to be the far-right wing Le Pen’s share of votes surpasses Macron’s, or both the far-right wing Le Pen and the far-left wing Melenchon get into the second round. We will likely see a falling Euro. In this situation, EUR/GBP will likely test the support level at 0.8300 again. If it is broken, then we will likely see an extension of the downtrend. Conversely, if the result of the first-round turns out to be Macron ‘s share of votes notably surpasses Le Pen’s, or both Macron and Fillion get into the second round. Then we will likely see the Euro rally as market concerns over the collapse of the EU would be relieved. In this situation, EUR/GBP will likely see a rebound. The resistance level is at 0.8385, followed by 0.8400 and 0.8415. The support line is at 0.8350, followed by 0.8330 and 0.8300. Be aware that the Euro and Euro crosses will likely be volatile before and after the release of the result.

21 апреля, 11:19

All Eyes on the First-Round Voting of the French Election

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The first round of the French presidential election will be held this Sunday, April 23rd. The market consensus for the first-round of the election is that the Centrist Macron and the far-right wing Le Pen will both capture enough votes to proceed to the second round, but this is very much still a four-horse race. Recent polls have shown there is still the possibility that the far-left wing Mélenchon could be a contender and make it into the final two, though vastly different from Le Pen, his policies would be likely to have a similar result to Le Pen with the markets seeing rallies of safe havens (such as gold, the yen and the Swiss franc), with lower European stocks and a falling Euro. The far-right Le Pen looks set to make the second round, the markets will be keeping any eye out for any possible increase of more than her expected share of vote, this would likely lead to some worry within the markets which are likely to be spooked by the possibility of a Le Pen presidency. The independent centrist candidate Macron is in favour of free trade and the integrity of the EU. HIs measures aim to change the country’s long-standing bureaucracy and excessive government control to revive the sluggish economic performance. At the moment, Macron or his compatriot Fillion are the best outcome for the Euro and the single market. Non-voting share and undecided voters are likely to play decisive roles in this election. The IFOP polls showed there are about 31% non-voting and 28% undecided voters. We are a long way from the finish line but the future fate of France and to some extent the Euro itself will be a little closer after Sundays first round of the election.

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20 апреля, 17:23

FxPro Trading Conditions during the 2017 French Presidential Election

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The first round of the French Presidential Election will be held on Sunday, April 23, 2017. In the days prior to the election, as well as in the days following the event, increased market volatility is expected to affect the markets, with wider spreads expected across several instruments. We would like to inform our traders that the margin requirements of the below instruments on all FxPro platforms will change as follows: InstrumentAll European Indices, Spot and Futures Margin Required4% The above change in margin requirements will come into effect on Friday, April 21, 2017, at 09:00a.m. (GMT) and will affect new positions only. Existing positions and other instruments will not be affected by this change. While we make all possible efforts to keep spreads at a minimum, please note that wider spreads are expected. Prior to and in the aftermath of the referendum, FxPro reserves the right to allow fixed spreads to float to reflect underlying market conditions. In case of extreme volatility and illiquidity, FxPro reserves the right to refuse the opening of new positions, enabling ‘Close Only’ functionality. Please note that, should market conditions deem it necessary, FxPro reserves the right to make additional changes to our trading conditions in the days prior to and after the French Presidential Election. We strongly advise you to monitor any open positions that you may have and visit the FxPro Blog frequently for any important updates. We shall also be notifying you via email, should any other changes to the current margin requirements come into effect.

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20 апреля, 15:43

USD/JPY Hovers Above Support Ahead of French Election

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Monday April 17, USD/JPY hit the lowest level of 108.12 since November 15, as a result of the strengthening of the yen on markets’ safe haven demand. However, the bearish attempt was held above the 108.00 support line since Monday. On the 4-hourly chart, the 10-SMA crossed over the 20-SMA from below on Wednesday, the bulls have broken the downtrend line resistance, indicating the bearish momentum has been waning. The daily Stochastic Oscillator reading is around 30, suggesting a rebound. The resistance level is at 109.30, followed by 109.70 and 110.00. The support line is at 108.65, followed by 108.30 and 108.00. Keep an eye on the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s speech at 18:15 BST today, it will likely affect USD crosses. Most importantly, be aware that the first round of the French presidential election will be held this Sunday April 23. The recent polls showed a tightening race between the top four candidates: Macron, Le Pen, Fillion and Jean-Luc Melenchon. The difference of votes between the 4 candidates is less than 3% which poses more uncertainty to the election. The consensus is that the Centrist Macron and the far-right wing Le Pen would likely get into the second round, then Macron would likely win the final vote. However, be aware that if the result of the first-round surprises the markets, especially if the far-right wing Le Pen’s share of vote sees a large increase, it will likely push safe havens further up. In this situation, USD/JPY will likely fall and test supports again.

20 апреля, 11:30

France’s and EU Future, Far-Right ? Far-Left ?

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After recent news and market headlines were dominated by the UK snap general election announcement, the markets are now turning their attention towards the upcoming French presidential election. The outcome of the French presidential election will most likely result in heightened volatility for the Euro and European stock markets which look likely to be most affected by the introduction of the far-right candidate Marie Le Pen. The first round of the French election will be held this Sunday April 23. Altogether there are eleven candidates. If none of the candidates gets more than 50% of the votes in the first round, the two winners will enter the second round of the vote will be held on May 7. The consensus thus far is that the Centrist Macron and the far-right wing Le Pen are most likely to pass into the second round, with Macron being the favourite to win the final vote. But if the past year has thought us anything, polls do not always accurately gauge public sentiment and there is a possibility that La Pen could win the election. The far-right wing Le Pen, and the far-left wing Jean-Luc Melenchon are the focuses of the election because of their extreme political stances, and Jean-Luc Melenchon is the only candidate among the four whose share of vote saw an increase recently. Le Pen takes a similar stance to Trump, the focus of her policies are France first, including anti-globalization, anti-immigrants, trade protectionism, repealing the Euro and reusing the Franc, and most noticeably: making France leave the EU. Many French voters are in favour of Le Pen’s policies, due to France’s high unemployment rate and recent terror attacks; provoking citizens’ anti-foreigner sentiment. France and Germany are the EU’s largest economies. If Le Pen wins, France might leave the EU, following the UK, and triggering a level of uncertainty that could well lead to the downfall of the single market. Regardless of this weekend’s outcome we can expect to see volatility across European markets as the election moves towards the second round of voting on May 7th. The Bank of England Governor Carney will make a speech at 16:30 BST today, it will be followed by the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s speech at 18:15 BST. The speeches will likely affect GBP and USD crosses.

19 апреля, 15:02

EUR/JPY Bulls Broke Major Downtrend Line Resistance

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EURJPY had been trading along the upside short-term downtrend line resistance since March 22, saw a record losing streak. It was caused by the strengthening of the yen pushed up by markets’ risk aversion sentiment. This morning we saw the release of the Eurozone CPI and core CPI for March (YoY), were 1.5% and 0.7% respectively, in line with expectations and the previous figures. The Eurozone trade balance for February was a 17.8-billion-euro surplus, beating expectations of a 16.2-billion surplus and the previous figure of a 0.6 billion deficit. EUR/JPY has reversed since April 17 after testing the mid-term major support zone. Tuesday April 18, the bulls broke the downtrend line resistance, trading above the newly-formed uptrend line support. On the 4-hourly chart, the 10 SMA crossed over the 20 SMA from below on Tuesday, indicating the trend has turned bullish. The resistance level is at 117.00, followed by 117.30 and 117.60. The support line is at 116.50, followed by 116.25 and 116.00. Keep an eye on the Japanese exports and imports for March (YoY), to be released at 00:50 BST on Thursday April 20, as it will likely affect the strength of JPY and JPY crosses.

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19 апреля, 11:23

Snap General Election Breathes Life into the Pound

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Yesterday morning, the UK Prime Minister Theresa May kick started a day of GBP volatility after her shock decision to call a snap general election for June 10th. Although the Conservative Party currently holds the majority in parliament, recent polling numbers have suggested that they will increase this majority in the general election. With some political parties, still against Brexit and a cloud of doubt surrounding the kind of deal the UK will reach with the EU, a larger majority will help strengthen the negotiating position of May when trying to achieve the best possible kind of deal. The vote in the Commons to approve the proposal for a snap general election instead of a 2020 election will require more than 2/3 of votes to pass. Some opposing parties have shown their support for the decision and the proposal is expected to pass. Uncertainty surrounding the platform outside No.10 resulted in GBP/USD initially plunged around 80 points. However, this was followed by a dramatic reversal when the Prime Minister announced the general election, sending Cable surging around 390 pips, hitting the highest level of 1.2904 since October 3, and marking the biggest intra-day volatility since January 17. The surge was helped by market expectations that the Conservative Party would become the massive majority in the parliament after the election, and that the UK would be in a stronger position during the Brexit negotiations, which would provide greater support for the Pound. EUR/GBP fell from the psychological level at 0.8500, hitting the lowest level of 0.8312 since December 5, marking the biggest intra-day fall since November 9. Volatility is expected to remain somewhat constant around GBP as the pace of Brexit begins to ramp up, with the EU and Theresa May both trying to secure the best possible deal in what could be a very messy divorce. A result of the surge of GBP was a slump in the FTSE 100 index, hitting the lowest level of 7109 since February 2, with the strengthening of GBP weighing on exporters. The mining sector in particular felt the brunt of the strengthening GBP and was one of the worst performers. In other news, the dollar has continued to weaken since Trump made the second USD overly strong statement. Tuesday EUR/USD hit the highest level of 1.0735 since March 30.

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18 апреля, 15:00

GBP/USD Nears Mid-Term Major Resistance After Theresa May Calls Early General Election

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The UK Prime Minister Theresa May made a speech this morning at 10 Downing Street. She stated that the Cabinet had agreed to call an early general election, to be held on June 8. The UK government is determined to execute Brexit process and negotiation with the EU, and this is the right decision for the country’s interests. The post-Brexit vote economic indicators have shown that the UK economy is more solid than expected to withstand Brexit impact. However, some other political parties are still against Brexit and the deal the UK reach with the EU, such as the Labour, Liberal and Scottish National Party. Although the Conservative Party is the majority in the Parliament. Nevertheless, the unity of other opposing parties will outnumber the Conservative, and hence it will weaken the UK government’s negotiation position with the EU. In order to remove the political opposition and eliminate uncertainties, Theresa May attempts to increase the number of Conservative MPs by moving forward the general election. GBP/USD has been trading above the downside uptrend line support since April 10. GBP/USD saw a dramatic reversal this morning. It surged after the speech with strong bullish momentum on realization of speculation, hitting the highest level of 1.2678 since February 2, breaking the psychological resistance level at 1.2600. The intra-day volatility is around 160 points, marking the biggest intra-day volatility since February 7. The bulls are currently edging up, with an attempt to test the next significant resistance level at 1.2700. However, the level is the mid-term major resistance level, where there is heavy pressure, be aware that the bullish momentum is likely to be restrained while nearing the level. The resistance level is at 1.2680, followed by 1.2700. The support line is at 1.2650, followed by 1.2620.

18 апреля, 11:17

Investors Turn to Safe Havens on Rising Regional Tensions

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Recent US military actions, such as the airstrike in Syria, the movement of an aircraft carrier strike group toward the Korean Peninsula and the dropping of “the mother of all bombs” on ISIS in Afghanistan has led to rising tensions amongst some of the world superpowers. The rising regional tensions have lifted the markets’ risk aversion sentiment. Investors are turning away from riskier assets towards safe havens, resulting in the weakening of US equity markets. Monday April 17, saw spot gold surge to the highest level of 1295.37 since November 9, it has rallied 2.6% since Syria strike on April 7. The first round of the French election is to be held this Sunday April 23. The latest polls conducted between April 12-14 showed a tightening race: Macron, Le Pen are both 22%, Macron and Le Pen got a lower share of the vote compared to 23% from a previous poll. The far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, has slipped to third position, with 20% of voters, which surpassing Fillion’s 19%. Jean-Luc Melenchon is the only candidate among the four whose share of vote saw an increase recently. The difference of votes between the 4 candidates is less than 3% which poses more uncertainty to the election. The US retail sales and CPI data for March released last Friday both underperformed. Retail sales (MoM) fell to -0.2%, retail sales for February was revised downward to -0.3% from 0.1%, marking the first decline since August 2016. The drop was partially caused by the recent decline in automobile and petrol sales. However, consumer electronics and clothing sectors saw a growth. Retail sales exclude autos for March (MoM) fell to 0.0%, marking the lowest growth since August 2016. US CPI and core CPI (YoY) for March were 2.4% and 2.0% respectively, marking the lowest growth since January 2017 and November 2015. Per CME’s FedWatch tool, after the release of US retail sales and CPI data for March, the probability of a rate hike in June has dropped to 46.6%. The Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda stated on Monday April 17 that employment and wages are improving steadily, consumer spending saw a pickup. The positive economic indicators continue to strengthen JPY ahead of the upcoming BoJ’s meeting on April 27. Monday USDJPY hit the lowest level of 108.12 since November 15.

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13 апреля, 14:31

WTI Trades at Mid-Term Major Resistance Zone

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The US EIA crude oil inventories figure (the week ending April 7) released on Wednesday, saw the biggest drop in 2.166 million barrels this year. However, the figure failed to push oil prices higher. WTI and Brent crude oil spot retraced around 1%, and 1.13% respectively on Wednesday. The reasons for the fall comprise both technical and fundamental factors. Technically oil prices were trading at the mid-term major resistance zone, where the selling pressure is heavy. Fundamentally, markets concern whether OPEC will extend the output cut agreement in the May meeting. In addition, the oil supply has been continuously increasing from the thriving US shale industry and some other non-OPEC oil producers. The price range between 53.00 – 55.00 is the mid-term major resistance zone for WTI spot, where the pressure is heavy. On the 4-hourly chart, WTI spot broke the downside uptrend line support on Wednesday, indicating the bullish momentum is likely to be restrained at this zone. The daily Stochastic Oscillator reading is above 80, suggesting a retracement. The resistance level is at 53.50, followed by 54.00 and 54.50. The support line is at 53.20, followed by 53.00 and 52.50.