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25 мая, 13:47

BTCUSD and ETHUSD Analysis – May 25, 2018

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Cryptocurrencies have sold off this week with the market capitalisation dropping to $334bn. There was no clear catalyst for the massive price declines but could be related to uncertainty in South Korea where a new tax policy at Bitfinex caused negative investor sentiment. However, cryptocurrencies continue to see increased regulation with news that the US Justice Department has opened a private criminal investigation into traders who may be manipulating the price of Bitcoin. Moreover, there have been reports suggesting that Goldman Sachs is going to launch a Bitcoin operation to trade futures on behalf of institutional clients. Also, the US exchange Coinbase has announced a suite of tools specifically designed for institutions as well as a custodian service. Coinbase has also discussed with regulators the possibility to apply for a banking license. BTCUSD On the daily chart, BTCUSD failed to break the 200MA and 61.8% retracement of the decline from 11500 and subsequently turned lower. Trend line and horizontal support can be found at 6750 and if this is broken, a bearish continuation to support at 4900 is possible. Only a break of the falling resistance trend line and May highs at 8600 would change the outlook with upside resistance at 10050. ETHUSD On the daily chart, ETHUSD has formed a head and shoulder pattern with a measured target of 450. Ethereum has found some immediate support on the 61.8% retracement from the lows in April at 535 and a break would open the way for continuation to 450 followed by the lows at 360. On the flip-side a reversal and break of 660 is needed to put the bulls back in control with resistance at 730.

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25 мая, 11:53

GBPJPY and USDCHF Analysis – May 25, 2018

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GBPJPY The GBPJPY pair has fallen under support this week, first at the 148.800 area and then the rising support trend line at 147.300. The market spent the last couple of weeks consolidating between 150.000 and 147.000 with these levels now becoming resistive. The low reached yesterday was 145.679 and a break under this level would target 145.000 as support with the previous swing low at 144.979. Continued downward pressure would likely look to supports at 144.440 and 144.000 followed by 143.750 and 143.000. Resistance at the rising trend line can be found at 147.358 today should the price get above 147.000. A retest on this area could find sellers but a move higher can target the 148.000 level. Resistance levels can also be seen at 149.215 and 149.650. A move above 150.000 would seek to visit 151.000 followed by the 152.000 area and 152.700. USDCHF This pair has turned lower from a double top pattern at 1.00556 and having broken under the 1.00000 level is now using the 50 period MA as resistance at 0.99735. This has pushed price under the 100 period MA at 0.99522. The 0.99769 area is also providing resistance and this may block any move back higher for the near term. Failure to push higher above parity may develop into a deeper retracement. However should price action be driven higher there is a chance that a bullish breakout looks to test the recent highs and targets at 1.01000 and 1.01250 become available. Support comes from the recent low at 0.98934 followed by the rising 200 period MA at 0.98675. A move under this MA would see the consolidation area at 0.98350 used to prop up price. A bounce from the 200 period MA would be comfortable for buyers but a loss could create a run on stops leading to a break under 0.98000 and target lower levels at 0.97091 and 0.96485.

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25 мая, 09:50

UK Gross Domestic Product data expected to slip to 0.1% for Q1

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At 08:00 GMT, German IFO – Current Assessment (May) is expected to come in at 105.5 from 105.7 previously. IFO – Expectations (May) is expected to be 98.5 from 98.7 prior. IFO – Business Climate (May) is expected at 102.0 v 102.1 previously. The data is still expected to show a weakening business climate in Germany following on from the fall in the March data. This data cannot be ignored as it surveys 7,000 businesses and is a leading indicator of economic direction. EUR crosses can see a spike in volatility should actual released data differ from the expected consensus. At 08:30 GMT, UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1) is expected to be 1.2% against 1.2% previously. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1) is expected to be 0.1% against 0.1% previously. This data is showing a fall in quarterly GDP data to the lowest levels since Q4 2012. GBP crosses can be influenced by this data release. At 12:00 GMT, RBA Assistant Governor Bullock is due to speak at De Nederlandsche Bank’s Housing Market seminar, in Amsterdam. Audience questions are expected to follow. AUD pairs can move in reaction to comments made during this event. At 12:30 GMT, US Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (Apr) are expected to come in at 0.5% from 0.0% previously. Durable Goods Orders (Apr) is expected at -1.4%% against 2.6% previously. This data series diverged last month with ex-transports missing expectations and the headline data exceeding its consensus. This divergence is expected to continue but the data is expected to show a fall in headline data and a rise in ex-transports. USD crosses can be moved by this data. At 13:15 GMT, ECBs Coeure is expected to speak today at a high-level panel at Sveriges Riksbank’s 350th anniversary celebration in Stockholm, Sweden. EUR crosses can be moved by comments made during this speech. At 13:20 GMT, Fed Chair Powell and BOE Governor Carney are both due to participate in a panel discussion titled “The future of central banking?” at the Sveriges Riksbank Anniversary Conference, in Stockholm. USD and GBP crosses can see spikes in volatility during this event. At 15:45 GMT, FOMC Member Bostic and Kaplan are due to deliver speeches at this time. USD crosses can see spikes in volatility during this time. At 17:00 GMT, Baker Hughes US Rig Count numbers will be released. The prior number last Friday showed that there were 844 Oil rigs in operation. Oil is close to the highest levels in recent times, but has slipped on the back of a bigger than expected build in inventories on Wednesday. This data can set the tone for traders as they look to the week ahead. At 19:20 GMT, German Buba President Weidmann is due to speak at the Sveriges Riksbank Anniversary Conference, in Stockholm. EUR crosses can see spikes in volatility during this event.

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25 мая, 09:35

US President Trump pulls out of peace summit with North Korea

The US President dominated headlines and moved the market again yesterday when he wrote a letter to the North Korean Leader announcing his decision to pull out of the upcoming summit. The market reacted violently with traders seeking safety and sending stocks lower and the USD falling with USDJPY falling from 109.750 to 108.950 but the move faded into the US close and in the Asian session overnight. EURUSD rallied to 1.17500 and GBPUSD rallied to 1.34140 but have moved lower since. Gold tested resistance at the 1305.50 area while Oil fell from $71.68 to $70.50 support. The beleaguered USDTRY fell to lows at 4.55693 yesterday as the CBRT emergency hiked lending rates by 300 bps to counter the currency moves but moved higher with the dollar to 4.80556. It is currently trading around 4.78444. The CBRT is due to meet again on the 7th of June. UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) was 1.4% against an expected 0.1% from 1.1% previously which was revised up to 1.3%. Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) was 1.6% against an expected 0.7% from a prior -1.2% which was revised up to -1.1%. Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) (Apr) was 1.5% against an expected 0.1% from 1.1% previously which was revised up to 1.3%. Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) (Apr) was 1.3% versus an expected 0.4% against a prior -0.5%. Yearly figures were expected to show a decrease but beat the consensus and exceeded last month’s readings. The monthly numbers exceeded expectations and show a jump in sales. This is a volatile data set but it does give a view on consumer spending. GBPUSD moved higher from 1.33838 to 1.34210 following this data release. US Continuing Jobless Claims (May 11) were 1.741M versus an expected 1.754M against 1.707M previously which was revised up to 1.712M. Initial Jobless Claims (May 18) were 234K versus an expected 220K against 222K previously which was revised up to 223K. This data is showing an increase in the number of new claims. US House Price Index (MoM) (Feb) was 0.1% against an expected 0.5% from 0.6% previously. This data slipped lower again after a strong improvement in the March reading. US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) were 5.46M versus an expected 5.57M against 5.60M previously. After reaching a seven year high in November at 5.81M, this data point had slipped lower over the following months signalling a little softness in the sector but recovered somewhat last month and in March. That recovery stalled with this reading. USDJPY initially moved higher from 109.558 to 109.723 as the jobs data hit but dropped to a low of 108.948 after housing data came in weaker coupled with the US/North Korea news. EURUSD is down -0.11% overnight, trading around 1.17060. USDJPY is up 0.30% in the early session, trading at around 109.567 GBPUSD is down -0.10% this morning trading around 1.33658. USDCAD is up 0.22% overnight, trading around 1.29092 Gold is down 0.19% in early morning trading at around $1,302.03 WTI is down -0.30% this morning, trading …

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24 мая, 15:50

FxPro and McLaren F1™ Team Announce Partnership Agreement

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24 May 2018, London. Online broker FxPro and McLaren F1™ Team are delighted to announce a multi-year partnership agreement. From the Monaco Grand Prix (24-27 May), the McLaren MCL33 will feature prominent FxPro branding, highlighting the firm’s position as the world’s number one online broker. Zak Brown, Chief Executive Officer, McLaren Racing, commented: “We are pleased to welcome FxPro as an official partner to the McLaren Formula 1 team. Both FxPro and McLaren are committed to innovation and excellence in their fields, making this a natural partnership. With over 50 domestic and international awards to their name, FxPro have proven their ability to perform at the highest level.” With over 250 million orders executed and up to 7000 orders processed each second, FxPro is well aware of the challenges high pressure, high performance environments present. This partnership underpins the commitment to excellence and innovation shared by McLaren and FxPro. FxPro CEO, Charalambos Psimolophitis, commented: “We are proud to be entering this multi-year partnership with McLaren, a team with an illustrious history and exciting future. We always look for partners that share our passion for excellence and success, and McLaren embodies those values perfectly.” Ilya Holeu, Chief Marketing Officer, FxPro, commented: “FxPro have always been visionary pioneers in everything we do, from multiple world-class sports sponsorships to the way we value our name and the way that we do business. Sports sponsorship has long been a significant part of our outreach program and we are delighted to be partnering with McLaren to take that forward.”

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24 мая, 10:50

Busy day of data and Central Bankers ahead

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At 08:00 GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney is due to deliver opening remarks at the BOE’s Markets Forum, in London. GBP pairs can move in reaction to comments made during this event. At 08:15 GMT, US Fed’s William Dudley is due to speak on reference rate reform at the BOE’s Markets Forum, in London. He will take part in an audience questions session from 8:50 GMT. USD crosses can react to comments made during this time. At 08:30 GMT, UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) is expected to be 0.1% from 1.1% previously. Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) is expected at 0.7% against a prior -1.2%. Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) (Apr) is expected to be 0.1% from 1.1% previously. Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) (Apr) is expected at 0.4% against a prior -0.5%. Yearly figures are expected to show a decrease but monthly numbers are expected to exceed expectations and show a jump in sales. This is a volatile data set but it does give a view on consumer spending. GBP crosses can experience an increase in volatility following this data release. At 11:30 GMT, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be published. This is expected to remain upbeat on continued increases in inflation while disregarding the fall in Euro area economic data. EUR pairs can move in reaction to the statements in this release. At 12:30 GMT, US Continuing Jobless Claims (May 11) is expected to be 1.754M against 1.707M previously. Initial Jobless Claims (May 18) is expected to come in at 220K against 222K previously. This data is showing an increase in the number of continuing claims but new claims have stabilized somewhat. USD crosses can see an increase in volatility from this data release. At 13:00 GMT, US House Price Index (MoM) (Feb) is expected at 0.5% from 0.6% previously. This data is expected slip lower again after a strong improvement in the March reading. USD crosses may be heavily traded as a result of this data. At 14:00 GMT US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) is expected to be 5.57M against 5.60M previously. After reaching a seven year high in November at 5.81M, this data point had slipped lower over the previous two months signalling a little softness in the sector but recovered somewhat last month and in March. That recovery is expected to continue with this reading. USD crosses can be moved by this data as analysts try to understand the impact on the economy. At 14:35 GMT, FOMC Member Bostic is due to deliver opening remarks at a research event on technology-enabled economic disruptions, cohosted by the Atlanta Fed and Dallas Fed, in Dallas. Audience questions are expected. USD crosses can see spikes in volatility during this time. At 17:00 GMT, UK BOE Governor Mark Carney is due to speak at the Society of Professional Economists’ annual dinner, in London. GBP crosses may be affected by any comments made. At 18:00 GMT, FOMC Member Harker is due to speak at a scheduled event. USD crosses can see …

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24 мая, 10:35

US President Trump proposes new Auto Import Tariffs up to 25%

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The US is considering new tariffs of up to 25% on imported vehicles and the President has instructed the Commerce Department to investigate the proposal on section 232 national security grounds. This has seen risk sentiment remain subdued with USDJPY down to fresh lows around 109.400 after falling from highs of 110.800 yesterday. This is negative for auto companies selling into the US but plans are in their early stages. US equity markets are off the lows from yesterday but Asian markets fell lower overnight with the Japanese market down to 22400.00 as a result. Reports from North Korea added to the negative sentiment after they suggested that they are reconsidering their upcoming meeting with the US after a verbal spat with the US Vice President. AUDUSD recovered earlier losses to trade around 0.78890. The US dollar selling accelerated after the FED minutes with 10 year yield falling under 3.00% after a strong hint of a rate hike at the 13TH of June meeting. Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (May) was 55.5 against an expected 56.0 from 56.2 previously. Markit Services PMI (May) was 53.9 against an expected 54.6 v 54.7 previously. Markit PMI Composite (May) was 54.1 against an expected 55.1 from 55.1 prior. This data came in softer once again after hitting highs in December and January. The continued fall in this data will be of concern for the ECB and may slow the path of monetary policy. EURUSD fell from 1.17169 to 1.16984 at which point buyers stepped in and brought price back up to 1.17474. UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) was 2.4% against an expected 2.5% from 2.5% previously. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) was 2.1% against an expected 2.2% from 2.3% prior. Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Apr) was 0.4% against an expected 0.5% from 0.1% prior. Retail Price Index (MoM) (Apr) was 0.5% versus an expected 0.5% against 0.1% previously. Retail Price Index (YoY) (Apr) was 3.4% against an expected 3.4% from 3.3% prior. These data points show CPI slipping slightly again. The yearly figure is still above the Bank of England’s 2% target since March of 2017 due to the change in the value of the pound after brexit. However the BOE says that inflation is likely to move back to 2% in 2018. Producer Price Index – Input (MoM) n.s.a. (Apr) was 0.4% against an expected 1.0% from -0.1% previously which was revised up to 0.1%. Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) n.s.a. (Apr) was 5.3% against an expected 5.8% from 4.2% previously which was revised up to 4.4%. Producer Prices increased from previous readings, with higher revisions, but not by the amount expected. GBPUSD fell from 1.33832 to 1.33459 after this data release. US Markit Services PMI (May) was 55.7 against an expected 54.9 v 54.6 previously. Markit PMI Composite (May) was 55.7 against an expected 55.0 from 54.9 prior. Manufacturing maintained its strong improvement since a low in May 2016. US New Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) were 0.662M against an …

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23 мая, 14:37

USDJPY and EURJPY Analysis – May 23, 2018

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) is benefiting from risk-off sentiment today with the USDJPY pair plunging below the 110.00 level. A number of factors are combining to trigger the move including geopolitical tensions in Iran, trade war rhetoric between US and China, political turmoil in Italy, and renewed concerns over North Korea. The US 10-year Treasury yields have also dropped sharply to 3.015%. The focus for today will be the release of latest FOMC meeting minutes, which may give clues to the central bank’s near-term monetary policy outlook. If the text reinforces the expectations for three rate hikes for 2018, the US Dollar may continue to strengthen. USDJPY On the 4-hourly chart, USDJPY has broken channel support and a close below 110.00 opens the way to further declines towards the 38.2% retracement at 108.80 with support at 109.25. A break of 108.80 could see a deeper retracement to the 107.00 handle. A bullish reversal and break of 110.40 is needed to resume the uptrend to the highs at 111.40. EURJPY On the daily chart, EURJPY is attempting to break the 38.2% retracement of the low from March 2017 at 129.00. A break of this level opens the way to further declines towards the 50% retracement at 126.30 with supports at 128.30 and 127.50. On the flip-side, a reversal above 129.00 will find resistance at 130.20 and 131.10.

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23 мая, 12:21

GBPUSD and GER 30 Analysis – May 23, 2018

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The GBPUSD pair is on the back foot today after US President Trump was pessimistic on any potential deal with North Korea and expressed his displeasure with US/Chinese talks. The support at 1.34000 was broken today after Monday’s test with price accelerating its decline creating a new low for 2018. Support can now be found at 1.33000 with a loss of this level targeting lower prices at 1.32206 and 1.30615. A break down from the expanding top pattern at the start of May suggests a move to 1.30000 and 1.29500. Resistance can develop at 1.34000 and today’s high at 1.34350. The price consolidated above these levels recently so there may be new levels that traders will have to discover. For now 1.34824 and 1.35500 mark areas of interest. The area around 1.36000 can be firmly resistive and may be retested again if shorts get squeezed but the chart remains bearish below this area. GER 30 The German Index is suffering today as markets enter full risk off mode with geo political tensions rise and European economic data remains suppressed. CPI data for Europe came in lower than expected this morning and there is concern for EU – Italian relations in light of comments from the new Italian government prompting a break from fiscal discipline. The index is testing support at 13000.00 and the trend defining support line. A fall under this area could start a deeper run lower as concerns mount as forward guidance from corporations has been weak. The moving average cluster at 12650.00 represents the top of the previous resistance area and a move to this area could see buyers emerge. Resistance can be found at 13200.00 an area that held price down in November and December 2017. Above that area the 13350.00 level comes into play coming in as the December high. A break above here could drive prices to 13426.00 and ultimately to retest the high at 13600.00

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23 мая, 10:54

UK Consumer Price Index data followed by FOMC Minutes this evening

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At 08:00 GMT, Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (May) is expected to come in at 56.0 from 56.2 previously. Markit Services PMI (May) is expected at 54.6 v 54.7 previously. Markit PMI Composite (May) is expected to be 55.1 from 55.1 prior. This data is also expected to soften once again from the highs in December. EUR crosses can see a spike in volatility should actual released data differ from the expected consensus. At 08:30 GMT, UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) is expected out at 2.5% v 2.5% previously. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) is expected at 2.2% from 2.3% prior. These data points are expected to show CPI holding steady. The yearly figure is above the Bank of England’s 2% target since March of 2017 due to the change in the value of the pound after Brexit. However the BOE says that inflation is likely to move back to 2% in 2018. Producer Price Index – Input (YoY) (Apr) is expected at 5.8% from 4.2% previously. Producer Prices are expected to increase again after the drop in February. At 14:00 GMT, US New Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) is expected to come in at 0.679M from 0.694M previously. The data is expected to continue to strengthen after it beat the consensus of 0.630M last month. Further improvement in these figures shows a pickup in confidence in the US housing market. USD crosses may be volatile due this data and could lead to further USD strength. At 18:00 GMT, US FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released. Traders will pay close attention to this release in order to discover how the FOMC views the current macro economic situation and if they are going to remain on their path of gradual rate increases.

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23 мая, 10:28

Negative comments from US President Trump turns markets to risk off

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Markets traded lower overnight as risk sentiment was dealt a blow by US President Trump who said that he was not pleased with how the talks with China went and that he was “not satisfied”. He also said that there was a “substantial chance” that the summit with North Korea in June “would not work out”. This led to a fall in US Indices, which had been trading higher for the day, and a rebound higher in the USD. The USDCAD pair moved up from 1.27417 lows to currently trade around 1.28530. EURUSD and GBPUSD fell to support yesterday and are trading lower this morning due to the negative comments. The FOMC Minutes will be released this evening with the gradual normalisation policy expected to be supported, and a growing confidence that the pace of the path forward is correct and robust enough to weather variation in the data particularly inflation. The Turkish Lira was sold heavily overnight with USDTRY currently up 2.44% to 4.78570 ahead of elections and continued upward pressure on Oil. UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Apr) came in at £6.230B against an expected £7.000B from a previous £-0.262B which was revised down to £-0.811B. This shows a surplus in the figures for April. The surpluses have been decreasing and trending down since peaking in 2010. GBPUSD fell from 1.34804 to 1.34544 after this data release. Canadian Whole Sales (MoM) (Mar) was released coming in at 1.1% against an expected reading of 0.6% from -0.8% previously which was revised down to -0.4%. This data shows that there was a recovery in this reading with the previous data revised higher. USDCAD traded up to a high of 1.27774, then down to 1.27417 after the data release. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data was released and showed a draw of -1.300M. Last week this data showed a build of 4.854M. With Oil prices back to 2014 levels any indication of price movement will be closely watched. Traders will take note of this data ahead of EIA Survey data on Wednesday. WTI Oil traded up to a high of $72.84 after this event before selling off. EURUSD is down -0.11% overnight, trading around 1.17654. USDJPY is down -0.35% in the early session, trading at around 110.502 GBPUSD is down -0.16% this morning trading around 1.34068. USDCAD is up 0.28% overnight, trading around 1.28535 Gold is down -0.07% in early morning trading at around $1,290.20 WTI is down -0.32% this morning, trading around $71.90

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22 мая, 15:16

AUDUSD and AUDJPY Analysis – May 22, 2018

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AUDUSD and AUDJPY Analysis – May 22, 2018 The Australian Dollar was boosted after news that a trade war between the world’s two largest economies is on hold. China has agreed to purchase more U.S. goods in an effort to reduce the trade deficit with the U.S. which is placing on hold the previously announced $150bn of trade tariffs. China is Australia’s biggest trading partner due to strong demand for iron ore, coal and natural gas. So, this easing of trade tensions reduces the risk to the Australian economy as a result of softening demand from China and supports the Australian Dollar. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is not expected to hike rates until mid-2019 and so the policy divergence with the U.S. Federal Reserve will exert bearish pressure on the Aussie. AUDUSD On the 4-hourly chart, AUDUSD has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern with a measured upside target of 0.7720. Upside resistance will be found at 0.7610 and then the 61.8% retracement from highs of April near the trend line at 0.7660. A reversal below the neckline at 0.7563 will negate the outlook with support at 0.7500 and then 0.7465. AUDUSD H4 AUDJPY Strength in the AUD combined with the recent weakness in the JPY has resulted in a sharp rally for the AUDJPY pair. In the daily timeframe, AUDJPY has broken above the 84.00 level which opens the way for continued upside to resistance at the 50% retracement of the highs from January at 84.80 followed by the 61.8% retracement at 85.90. On the flip-side, a bearish reversal below 84.00 will see declines with support at 83.30 and 82.60.