Official FxPro Forex Broker Blog. Professional daily Forex market reviews and analysis. Economic calendar.
23 июня, 11:27

Markets look ahead to US data next week

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Trading in USD was relatively flat on Friday ahead of economic indicators released next week in the US, which will provide further insight into the US economy – specifically inflation. Following last week’s FOMC decision to raise interest rates, the USD Index hit a 1 month high on Tuesday of 98.871. Since then trading has been in a narrow range as the markets await new US data to “analyse”. With US inflation data released next week the markets will be keen to see if the recent slump in crude oil has impacted the US inflation outlook. US data releases next week will include; June consumer confidence indicator, pending home sales, crude oil inventories, revised first quarter GDP and the PCE price index. However, USD will likely react to wages & inflation data and moreso the July Non-Farm Payroll report in 2 weeks’ time. USD is set to post weekly gains of 0.4% against both USDJPY & EURUSD. USDJPY is trading around 111.25 below the 1 month high it set on Tuesday of 111.79. EURUSD is holding relatively steady around 1.1181. Oil made small recoveries yesterday from 10 month lows, with WTI trading around $42.95 and Brent trading around $45.55 in early trading this morning. Therefore Commodity Currencies have benefited with USDCAD rallying 0.75% on Thursday and currently trading around 1.3220. CAD also benefitted from strong domestic retail sales which added to the markets expectations for an interest rate hike in July from the Bank of Canada. GBPUSD was higher trading around 1.2735 as Kristin Forbes, Bank of England Policy Maker, stated “a “lift off” of UK interest rates should not be delayed any longer”. Such a statement is contrarian to comment made by Bank of England Governor Carney. This week GBPUSD experienced a sell off from Monday’s high of 1.2814 to a 2-month low set on Wednesday of 1.2589. Markets will be keen to hear the tone of speeches from FOMC members; Bullard, Mester and Powell today at 16:15 BST, 17:40 BST and 19:15 BST respectively.

22 июня, 11:41

Bear Territory for Oil?

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Oil continued to trade lower on Thursday as traders look ready to test new lows for crude prices with worries persisting over a global glut. Since peaking in late February, crude has dropped approximately 20%, with only brief rallies, completely erasing the gains it made at the end of the year following the initial OPEC-led production cut. OPEC and other major producers agreed to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day from January for six months which was recently extended for an additional nine months. Whilst this was a major shift in policy for OPEC the hope it gave to markets was short lived. With increased production from the US, Nigeria, Libya and other producers the extra supply outstripped demand and forced prices lower. US Crude inventories fell 2.5 million barrels in the week to June 16, surpassing analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.1 million barrels. Even comments from Iran’s oil minister that OPEC members are considering further output cuts has made little impact to prices. Brent crude was trading at $44.95 a barrel at 09:05 GMT, after spending much of the Asian trading day in positive territory. Brent had fallen 2.6% in the previous session to its lowest level since November of last year. WTI was trading at $42.50 a barrel at 9:10 after spending much of the day trading higher this after touching its lowest intraday level since August 2016. GBPUSD is trading around $1.2670 after making some gains on Wednesday after Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, suggested that “he was likely to vote for an interest rate hike this year”. Haldane was largely supportive of keeping rates low, contrasting sharply with the tone set by the bank’s Governor Mark Carney just the day before. NZD gained nearly 0.5% against USD following the expected RBNZ decision to keep interest rates unchanged at a record low 1.75%. RBNZ Governor Wheeler stated “Global economic growth has increased and become more broad-based. However, major challenges remain with on-going surplus capacity and extensive political uncertainty”. NZDUSD was trading at 0.7260 at 9:30 BST. Markets will be looking at US Initial Jobless claims, that are released at 13:30 BST today and a scheduled speech from FOMC member Powell at 15:00 BST for further evidence of the US economy strengthening.

21 июня, 11:38

Oil & GBP slide lower

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Oil continues to be under “over supply” pressure resulting in prices dipping to 7 month lows. Yesterday Oil suffered a 2% drop as the increased supply from several key producers undermined OPEC producers deal to reinforce a cut in global output. For those traders following technicals the recent fall in Oil equates to a 20% fall from recent highs signaling official “bearish” territory. In early trading WTI was trading around $43.35pb and Brent was trading just below $46pb. GBP dropped on Tuesday, and continued to be soft, after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney stated “that there would be no immediate adjustment of monetary policy by the central bank” in a speech he delivered at Mansion House in London. He also stated that “this stimulus is working, and that credit is widely available, the cost of borrowing is near record lows, the economy has outperformed expectations and unemployment has reached a 40-year low”. Because of his comments the market has reacted that an interest rate rise is highly unlikely. GBPUSD dropped from 1.2753 at 8:00 BST to 1.2631 just before 15:00 BST in response to Carney’s comments yesterday. Overnight GBPUSD has traded in a range of 1.25885 to 1.26345 currently trading near the lows at 1.2590. Today sees the State Opening of Parliament in the UK. An event normally full of pomp but, due to the snap election, will be somewhat muted. Whilst the Conservative Party is the largest party in Government there are still concerns that they may not gain the support of the DUP in Northern Ireland and gain the slim majority they need to govern without complications from other parties. Regardless, Prime Minister May will have a greatly trimmed down manifesto with the focus being Brexit and the state of the UK economy. We can expect GBP to continue to be under some pressure because of these uncertainties. EURUSD recovered slightly, after hitting a 3 week low, currently trading around 1.1130. USD also eased against JPY currently trading around 111.19. At 15:30 GMT the EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (June 16) are released. The consensus is -2.106M with the previous release at -1.661M. Regardless of the figure that is released we are expecting volatility in Crude Oil.

20 июня, 11:53

USD Rises as Investor Concerns Abated

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Investor concerns, that low US inflation could deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates further this year, were somewhat abated last night after New York Fed President William Dudley stated “that the tightening in the labour market should help drive up inflation”. Dudley’s comments reinforced last weeks Fed message and helped to give a boost to USD. In early Asian trading USDJPY rose to 111.783 reaching its strongest level since May 26th which is nearly 2.8% above the 2 month low set on June 14th of 108.81. Currently USDJPY is trading at 111.60. Technical Analysis indicates key resistance levels just above 112.10 which may tempt market bulls to test. Additional gains for USD against JPY may also arise following the comments made last week by the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda; “the BOJ would be in no hurry to dial back its massive stimulus program” USD strength saw the Dollar Index September Future trading as high as 97.29 in early trading – it’s highest level since May 30th – currently trading at 97.25 for the September Future. Domestic politics and the UK’s economic future (the Brexit negotiations began yesterday) have caused downward pressure on GBP. After reaching a high on Monday of 1.2814 GBPUSD is trading below 1.2690 this morning. There may be some hope for GBPUSD to recover with speeches expected today form Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and British finance minister Philip Hammond. Oil continues to be under selling pressure as there is clear evidence that crude oil production is rising in the US, Nigeria & Libya. These increases are undermining the efforts of OPEC to curb production. Add to that a 22nd consecutive month of increases in new US Oil rigs and it becomes less of a surprise to see WTI trading below $44.70 and Brent trading below $47.35 a barrel in early trading this morning – both close to 5 month lows. As global risk sentiment has improved Gold has lost some of its shine hitting a 1 month low of $1,242.75 before retracing higher to currently trade close to $1,247.

Выбор редакции
19 июня, 15:44

GBP/USD Bulls Test 10-day SMA Resistance

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GBP/USD has rebounded around 1.15% since June 12th after the general election slump. On the 4-hourly chart, GBP/USD has been trading above the downside uptrend line support since June 13th. The Brexit negotiations, between the UK and the EU, is set to start today, June 19th. In the short term, the GBP prospects will likely subject to the progression and situation of the Brexit process. This morning in early European session, the bulls have been edging up and attempting to breach the short term major resistance level at 1.2800, where the daily 10-day SMA converges. However, it saw a moderate retracement. The bulls still have momentum, however, be aware that pressure is heavier at the short term major resistance zone between 1.2800 – 1.2850. The resistance level is at 1.2800, followed by 1.2820. The support line is at 1.2770, followed by 1.2750. The UK public sector net borrowing figure for May will be released at 09:30 BST on Wednesday. It will likely affect GBP crosses.

Выбор редакции
19 июня, 14:57

(Русский) CHF/JPY достиг цели для продажи 112.50

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• CHF/JPY достиг цели для продажи 112.50 • Следующая цель для покупок – 115.00 CHF/JPY продолжает рост после недавнего разворота от области поддержки лежащей между уровнем поддержки 112.50 (бывшая цель для продажи), нижней дневной полосой Боллинджера и 38.2% коррекцией Фибоначчи восходящего импульса 1 апреля. Восходящий разворот от данной области поддержки образовал дневную разворотную фигуру японских свечей Бычье Поглощение. Ожидается, что CHF/JPY продолжит рост к следующей цели для покупок на уровне сопротивления 115.00 (вершина предыдущих волн 1 и (b)).

Выбор редакции
19 июня, 13:22

New Spot Indices Added to our Offering

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We are pleased to inform you that we have recently expanded our offering on Spot Indices with the addition of CFDs on the below symbols: #US2000 #India50 #S.Africa40 #Italy40 #Canada60 These popular instruments are now available for trading on all our platforms. For a full list of all available Spot Indices and their trading conditions, please click on the button below: View All Spot Indices If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us.

19 июня, 11:32

Brexit Negotiations to be Triggered

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The Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU is set to start today, June 19th. Although Theresa May has stated before “no deal is better than a bad deal”, Chancellor said on Sunday that “no deal would be a very, very bad outcome for Britain”. A Hung Parliament will likely cause both a positive and a negative impact on the Brexit process, as the Tories now have less dominance in the Parliament, the UK will likely be at a weaker position, resulting in a softer Brexit. However, different opinions and stances between different political parties will likely cause conflicts on some Brexit associated issues. The focuses on the Brexit issues include whether the UK will be able to stay in the custom union, trade agreements, financial services, the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and British nationals living in the EU etc. In the short term, the GBP prospects will likely subject to the progression and situation of the Brexit process. GBP has seen a rebound post the general election. GBP/USD has rebounded around 1.15% since June 12th. This morning, in early European session, the bulls are attempting to breach the psychological level at 1.2800. GBP/JPY has rebounded 2.3% since June 12th. This morning, in early European session, the bulls broke the resistance level at 142.00. EUR/GBP has retraced 1.3% since June 12th. After the release of the UK general election outcome, markets’ risk-off sentiment has waned. The VIX (volatility) index fell to a low of 9.37, last seen in 1993, after the election. It was followed by a moderate rebound, trading around 10.38. It appears to be that markets’ risk-on sentiment will likely last an extended period. Gold has retreated around 1.27% since the Fed addressed a hawkish statement last Wednesday. This morning in early European session, spot gold fell to a low of 1250.06, last seen on May 24th.. There is stronger support at the zone between 1245 – 1250, if the zone is broken, we will likely see an extended downtrend. In the short term, gold prices likely remain bearish unless some unexpected market events happen to push it up. The economic data is relatively thin this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes will be released at 02:30 BST on Tuesday morning, it will likely affect AUD crosses.

16 июня, 12:27

BOJ Monetary Policy Remains Steady

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The Bank of Japan maintained their monetary policy on Friday whilst upgrading their assessment of private consumption and overseas growth; signaling its confidence that an export focused economic recovery was broadening and gaining momentum. Short term interest rates will remain at -0.1% and 10-year Government Bond yields close to zero. Unlike the US Federal Reserve, who have reduced their massive stimulus program, the BOJ is unlikely to adopt the same approach whilst Japanese inflation is nowhere near BOJ’s 2% target. Following the Policy Decision, a statement from the BOJ stated; “Private consumption has shown increased resilience against a background of steady improvement in the employment and income situation” In early trading USDJPY touched a high around 111.37 and is currently trading around 111.15. Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 0.7%, narrowing its loss for the week to 0.3%. GBP moved higher on news that Prime Minister Theresa May has reached a “broad agreement on a governing agenda prioritizing Brexit and UK unity with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party”. The markets take this as a positive with “stability” returning to the UK Government. GBP has also been bolstered with signs that there is a likely shift in the Bank of England’s policy on keeping UK interest rates at record lows. GBPUSD is currently holding above 1.2750 & EURGBP remains close to the early Friday high of 0.8741. The Dollar Index rose to 97.539 extending the 0.5% gain it had on Thursday. With USD strengthening gold has seen muted trading currently trading at $1254.50. If gold fails to recover from current levels it will mark a weekly loss of 1% and a second weekly decline. WTI also remains “depressed” trading close to a 6 week low due to continued concerns over rising US inventories adding to an already heavy supply of Oil in the global market. Friday is relatively “light” on economic data releases with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 15:00 BST and Dallas FOMC Member Kaplan speaking at 17:45 BST.

Выбор редакции
15 июня, 15:08

USD/CAD Rebounds from Major Support

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USD/CAD has seen a substantial 3.65% slump since May 5th. The FOMC made a hawkish statement on Wednesday evening, June 15th, resulting in a sharp USD rebound. Thus, the USD/CAD downtrend was held above the short term major support level at 1.3200, after hitting a 3-and-a-half-month low of 1.3164, There is stronger support at the level at 1.3200, we will likely see an ongoing rebound as a correction post a slump. On the 4-hourly chart, the price has been moving from the lower band to the middle band by the Bollinger Band indicator, suggesting increased bullish momentum. The daily Stochastic Oscillator reading is below 20, suggesting a rebound. The resistance level is at 1.3300, followed by 1.3350. The support line is at 1.3250, followed by 1.3200. The US initial jobless claims (the week ending June 9th) will be released at 13:30 BST this afternoon. Be aware that it will likely affect USD and USD/CAD.

15 июня, 11:31

Dollar Reverses on Fed’s Hawkish Tone

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Two more central banks are set to announce rate decisions this week following the FOMC announcement yesterday; they are the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). UK retail sales and core retail sales figures for May will be released at 09:30 BST today followed by the Bank of England’s rate decision and monetary policy statement at 12:00 BST. The BoE stated in May that the rates will likely remain unchanged until the end of 2019. Be aware that the data release and the BoE’s announcement will likely cause volatility for GBP crosses. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its rate decision and monetary policy statement at 03:00 BST on Friday June 16th. Markets are keeping a close eye on when the BoJ will begin to gradually remove its QE programme. Although the economy has seen a moderate recovery (as inflation hasn’t seen a stable upswing) the BoJ will likely keep rates in negative territory and continue the QE until it sees a sustainable pickup in inflation. The FOMC announced a rate hike of 25 basis points on Wednesday evening, from 1.0% to 1.25%, which was In line with market expectations. The FOMC maintained its March forecast as economic growth has continued making progress predicting moderate expansion over the next few years. Notably, the Fed sees one more rate hike by end of the year and three more rate hikes in 2018 to reflect economic growth, it expects to start shrinking its balance sheet this year. Per CME’s FedWatch tool; the probabilities for a rate hike in September and December are 18% and 39.7% respectively. It indicates that markets see the next rate hike more likely to happen in December. The Fed sees the job market strengthening further with the unemployment rate in 2018 revised downward from the March estimate of 4.7% to 4.6%. The Fed sees near term Inflation staying below 2%, however it is expected to move up and stabilise around 2% over the next few years as the Fed hasn’t seen broad undermining of inflation expectations. The dollar index hit a low of 96.28, last seen on November 9th ahead of the FOMC press conference because of the disappointing retail sales and inflation data. Nevertheless, USD saw a dramatic and substantial reversal as Yellen’s overall statement was relatively hawkish, lifting the dollar with a 0.85% rebound. On Thursday, in early European session, the dollar index bulls broke the resistance level at 97.00. On Wednesday evening USD/JPY rebounded 0.96% from a 7-and-a-half week low of 108.80, recovering the psychological level at 109.00. Spot gold fell by 1.8% from a 3-day high of $1280.56, hitting a 2-and-a-half-week low of $1257.02. GBP/USD fell around 0.68%, from a 3-day high of 1.2817. EUR/USD fell around 0.9%, from a 7-month high of 1.1295, on Thursday in early European session, the psychological support level at 1.1200 was broken again.

14 июня, 16:40

USD/JPY Bears Test Significant Support at 109.00 Ahead of FOMC

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USD/JPY saw a 0.6% rebound from June 7th to 13th as safe havens retreated after the release of the UK general election outcome, easing markets’ risk-off sentiment. The bulls have recovered the significant psychological level at 110.00 since Tuesday. This morning, in the European session, USD/JPY continued edging up reaching a 2-day high of 110.33 before retracing back to trade as low as 109.22. Currently JPY/USD is trading at 109.35. US retail sales, and inflation figures for May, were released earlier today. The data performance was overall underperforming. CPI (YoY) fell to 1.9% in May, from 2.2% in April, lower than the expected 2.0%. Core CPI (YoY) fell to 1.7% in May, from 1.9% in April, lower than the expected 1.9%. US Retail sales saw a 0.3% drop in May, from a 0.4% growth in April, lower than the expected 0.1% growth. US Retail sales excluding autos also saw a 0.3% drop in May, from a 0.4% growth in April, lower than the expected 0.2% growth. The disappointing data hit USD/JPY, plunging sharply more than 90 points, breaking the significant psychological level at 110.00. The upside downtrend line resistance indicates increased selling pressure. The current price is trading above the near term major support line at 109.00, where there is stronger support. The markets are now waiting for the FOMC June rate decision at 19:00 BST and the press conference that follows at 19:30 BST this evening. Be aware that it will likely cause volatility for USD crosses. If the Fed addresses a dovish outlook it will likely weigh on USD/JPY again and tests supports. Conversely, if the Fed addresses a hawkish outlook it will likely see a rebound of USD/JPY. The resistance level is at 109.60 followed by 110.00 The support line is at 109.00 followed by 108.50.