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26 июня, 16:18

Expect Above Average Temperatures: Identifying the Economic Impacts of Climate Change -- by Derek Lemoine

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A rapidly growing empirical literature seeks to estimate the costs of future climate change from time series variation in weather. I formally analyze the consequences of a change in climate for economic outcomes. I show that those consequences are driven by changes in the distribution of realized weather and by expectations channels that capture how anticipated changes in the distribution of weather affect current and past investments. Studies that rely on time series variation in weather omit the expectations channels. Quantifying the expectations channels requires estimating how forecasts affect outcome variables and simulating how climate change would alter forecasts.

26 июня, 16:18

Why Are Some Immigrant Groups More Successful than Others? -- by Edward P. Lazear

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Success, measured by earnings or education, of immigrants in the US varies dramatically by country of origin. For example, average educational attainment among immigrants ranges from 9 to 16 years, depending on source country. Perhaps surprisingly, immigrants from Algeria have higher educational attainment than those from Israel or Japan. Also true is that there is a strong inverse relation of attainment to number of immigrants from that country. These patterns result because in the US, immigrant slots are rationed. Selection from the top of the source country's ability distribution is assumed and modeled. The main implications are that average immigrant attainment is inversely related to the number admitted from a source country and positively related to the population of that source country. The results are unequivocally supported by results from the American Community Survey. Additionally, a structural model that is more explicit in the assumptions and predictions fits the data well.

26 июня, 16:18

What Was the Industrial Revolution? -- by Robert E. Lucas, Jr.

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At some point in the first half of the 19th century per capita GDP in the United Kingdom and the United States began to grow at something like one to two percent per year and have continued to do so up to the present. Now incomes in many economies routinely grow at 2 percent per year and some grow at much higher "catch-up" rates. These events surely represent a historical watershed, separating a traditional world in which incomes of ordinary working people remained low and fairly stable over the centuries from a modern world where incomes increase for every new generation. This paper uses Gary Becker's theory of a "quantity/quality trade-off," consistent both with Malthusian population dynamics (quantity) and with demographic transition (quality), to identify a limited set of forces that were central to this revolution.

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26 июня, 16:18

The Effect of Cash Injections: Evidence from the 1980s Farm Debt Crisis -- by Nittai K. Bergman, Rajkamal Iyer, Richard T. Thakor

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What is the effect of cash injections during financial crises? Exploiting county-level variation arising from random weather shocks during the 1980s Farm Debt Crisis, we analyze and measure the effect of local cash flow shocks on the real and financial sector. We show that such cash flow shocks have significant impact on a host of economic outcomes, including land values, loan delinquency rates, the probability of bank failure, employment, and wages. Estimates of the effect of local cash flow shocks on county income levels during the financial crisis yield a multiplier of 1.63.

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26 июня, 16:18

Targeted Debt Relief and the Origins of Financial Distress: Experimental Evidence from Distressed Credit Card Borrowers -- by Will Dobbie, Jae Song

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We study the drivers of financial distress using a large-scale field experiment that offered randomly selected borrowers a combination of (i) immediate payment reductions to target short-run liquidity constraints and (ii) delayed debt write-downs to target long-run debt constraints. We identify the separate effects of the payment reductions and debt write-downs using variation from both the experiment and cross-sectional differences in treatment intensity. We find that the debt write-downs significantly improved both financial and labor market outcomes despite not taking effect for three to five years. In sharp contrast, there were no positive effects of the more immediate payment reductions. These results run counter to the widespread view that financial distress is largely the result of short-run constraints.

26 июня, 16:18

The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009 -- by John G. Fernald, Robert E. Hall, James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson

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U.S. output has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, even though the unemployment rate has essentially returned to a pre-crisis, normal level. We use a growth-accounting decomposition to explore explanations for the output shortfall, giving full treatment to cyclical effects that, given the depth of the recession, should have implied unusually fast growth. We find that the growth shortfall has almost entirely reflected two factors: the slow growth of total factor productivity, and the decline in labor force participation. Both factors reflect powerful adverse forces that are largely unrelated to the financial crisis and recession--and that were in play before the recession.

26 июня, 16:18

The Impact of Alcohol on Mental Health, Physical Fitness, and Job Performance -- by Marigee Bacolod, Jesse M. Cunha, Yu-Chu Shen

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We study the impact of legal access to alcohol on a range of behavioral and physical outcomes of U.S. Army soldiers in a regression discontinuity design. The wealth of novel data collected by the military on cognitive ability, psychological health, and family history allows us to explore how impacts vary with risk factors for alcohol consumption. Overall, we observe a large and significant increase in drinking after the 21st birthday, but the increases are largest amongst those who were depressed, had a family history of mental health problems, had better coping ability, and had higher cognitive ability. Despite the large increase in consumption, we do not find any meaningful impacts of legal access to alcohol - overall or in any sub-group - on any of the short-term outcomes we observe, including suicidal tendencies, depression, tobacco use, physical fitness, psychological health, deployability, smoking, and job-related infractions. Acknowledging the limitations for extrapolation out of sample, we discuss the policy implications of our results.

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26 июня, 16:18

Internal Capital Markets in Times of Crisis: The Benefit of Group Affiliation in Italy -- by Raffaele Santioni, Fabio Schiantarelli, Philip E. Strahan

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Italy's economic and banking systems have been under stress in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and Euro Crisis. Firms in business groups have been more likely to survive this challenging environment, compared to unaffiliated firms. Better performance stems from access to an internal capital market, and the survival value of groups increases, inter alia, with group-wide cash flow. We show that actual internal capital transfers increase during the crisis, and these transfers move funds from cash-rich to cash-poor firms and also to those with more favorable investment opportunities. The ability to borrow externally provides additional funds that are shared across group affiliated firms. Our results highlight the benefits of internal capital markets when external capital markets are tight or distressed.

26 июня, 16:18

The Aggregate Productivity Effects of Internal Migration: Evidence from Indonesia -- by Gharad Bryan, Melanie Morten

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We estimate the aggregate productivity gains from reducing barriers to internal labor migration in Indonesia, accounting for worker selection and spatial differences in human capital. We distinguish between movement costs, which mean workers will only move if they expect higher wages, and amenity differences, which mean some locations must pay more to attract workers. We find modest but important aggregate impacts. We estimate a 22% increase in labor productivity from removing all barriers. Reducing migration costs to the US level, a high mobility benchmark, leads to an 8% productivity boost. These figures hides substantial heterogeneity. The origin population that benefits most sees an 104% increase in average earnings from a complete barrier removal, or a 37% increase from moving to the US benchmark.

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26 июня, 16:18

Survey Under-Coverage of Top Incomes and Estimation of Inequality: What is the Role of the UK's SPI Adjustment? -- by Richard V. Burkhauser, Nicolas Herault, Stephen P. Jenkins, Roger Wilkins

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Survey under-coverage of top incomes leads to bias in survey-based estimates of overall income inequality. Using income tax record data in combination with survey data is a potential approach to address the problem; we consider here the UK's pioneering 'SPI adjustment' method that implements this idea. Since 1992, the principal income distribution series (reported annually in Households Below Average Income) has been based on household survey data in which the incomes of a small number of 'very rich' individuals are adjusted using information from 'very rich' individuals in personal income tax return data. We explain what the procedure involves, reveal the extent to which it addresses survey under-coverage of top incomes, and show how it affects estimates of overall income inequality. More generally, we assess whether the SPI adjustment is fit for purpose and consider whether variants of it could be employed by other countries.

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26 июня, 16:18

The Integration of Economic History into Economics -- by Robert A. Margo

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In the United States today the academic field of economic history is much closer to economics than it is to history in terms of professional behavior, a stylized fact that I call the "integration of economic history into economics". I document this using two types of evidence - use of econometric language in articles appearing in academic journals of economic history and economics; and publication histories of successive cohorts of PhDs in the first decade since receiving the doctorate. Over time, economic history became more like economics in its use of econometrics and in the likelihood of scholars publishing in economics, as opposed to economic history journals. But the pace of change was slower in economic history than in labor economics, another sub-field of economics that underwent profound intellectual change in the 1950s and 1960s, and there was also a structural break evident for post-2000 PhD cohorts. To account for these features of the data, I sketch a simple, "overlapping generations" model of the academic labor market in which junior scholars have to convince senior scholars of the merits of their work in order to gain tenure. I argue that the early cliometricians - most notably, Robert Fogel and Douglass North - conceived of a scholarly "identity" for economic history that kept the field distinct from economics proper in various ways, until after 2000 when their influence had waned.

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26 июня, 16:18

Mandatory Access Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs and Prescription Drug Abuse -- by Dhaval M. Dave, Anca M. Grecu, Henry Saffer

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Despite the significant cost of prescription (Rx) drug abuse and calls from policy makers for effective interventions, there is limited research on the effects of policies intended to limit such abuse. This study estimates the effects of prescription drug monitoring (PDMP) programs which is a key policy targeting the non-medical use of Rx drugs. Based on objective indicators of abuse as measured by substance abuse treatment admissions related to Rx drugs, estimates do not suggest any substantial effects of instituting an operational PDMP. We find, however, that mandatory-access provisions, which raised PDMP utilization rates by actually requiring providers to query the PDMP prior to prescribing a controlled drug, are significantly associated with a reduction in Rx drug abuse. The effects are driven primarily by a reduction in opioid abuse, generally strongest among young adults (ages 18-24), and underscore important dynamics in the policy response. Robustness checks are consistent with a causal interpretation of these effects. We also assess potential spillovers of mandatory PDMPs on the use of other illicit drugs, and find a complementary reduction in admissions related to cocaine and marijuana abuse.