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25 марта, 01:49

Russia Plans 2017-2019 Budget Based On $40 Barrel

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Russia is budgeting its federal spending to expectations that oil prices will hover around $40 a barrel for the next several years, according to a new report by Bloomberg. Such preparations go against predictions by international oil industry experts that barrel prices will rise to $60 and remain there over the long term. These forecasts are based on expectations that the global oil supply glut will reverse over the next couple of years, bringing prices up to a new normal, which will still stand far lower than the $100+ levels seen before the market…

25 марта, 01:49

December Crude Spill In North Dakota Thrice As Big As Originally Estimated

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The crude oil spill that occurred in western North Dakota in December is now estimated to be three times larger than originally estimated, according to True Companies, the owner of the pipeline. The new estimate makes the spill the largest in the state to affect water resources in over a decade, a new article by Reuters reports. Spokesperson Wendy Owen clarified on Friday that the Belle Fourche crude pipeline spilled 12,615 barrels of oil, but an earlier evaluation of the leak measured spillage at 4,200 barrels. Four-fifths of the spill has been…

25 марта, 01:49

What A Westinghouse Bankruptcy Could Mean For U.S. Utilities

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International news services now report that Japan’s Toshiba Corporation (9502.T) is preparing to make a chapter 11 bankruptcy filing for its Westinghouse Electric subsidiary as soon as this Monday, March 31. For most of our readers this news evokes little surprise. This is merely another chapter of a slow moving financial and accounting train wreck involving nuclear design and construction firm Westinghouse and its troubled Japanese parent, Toshiba. But like an old, leaky garbage scow there is much to clean up in its wake. The two U.S. utilities…

25 марта, 01:49

Statoil Strikes Oil In Wildcat Well In North Sea

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Norway’s Statoil has found oil and gas drilling a wildcat well next to producing oil fields in the northern part of the North Sea, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) said on Friday. The well was drilled from the Gullfaks C platform to a structure east of the Gimle field, about 7 km (4.35 miles) northeast of the Gullfaks field and 7 km south of the Visund Sør field, NPD said. Preliminary estimates suggest that the find contains between 1 and 3 million standard cubic metres (Sm3) of recoverable oil equivalents, that is, between…

24 марта, 23:34

Why Are Shell And Toyota Backing Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles?

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Royal Dutch Shell sees that facing a lower-carbon transport future will need a “mosaic of fuels and engines,” but the energy conglomerate is leaning toward hydrogen as the alternative fuel of choice. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are classified globally as zero emission vehicles, and are seeing a wave of policy support in North America, Europe, and Asia. The water vapor emissions are fascinating to many. Shell sees a distinct place for itself in supporting the vehicles and leading development of the fueling infrastructure needed…

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24 марта, 23:30

U.S. Shale Could Peak Before 2025

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In a previous post on U.S. LTO future output there were suggestions that a bottom up approach might be better than the top down approach and I agree. I will attempt the bottom up approach here. The chart below is a quick summary, based on three different oil price scenarios (high, medium, and low). The dashed line is just the average of the low and high oil price scenarios. Data is from Enno Peters’ website shaleprofile.com and the EIA. (Click on “Tight Oil Production Estimates” for tight oil output data.) (Click to enlarge) Clearly,…

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24 марта, 23:29

Big Oil Leading The Charge For New Carbon Capture Tech

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For an industry that has for decades been criticized by environmental groups as the root of all evil it is ironic that oil and gas producers are aligned in championing carbon capture with such enthusiasm. The fossil fuel industry is at the forefront of lobbying for radical changes in public policy into research to cut the costs of extracting CO2 from hydrocarbon energy. Industry leaders like Bob Dudley from BP are quoted in the Telegraph as saying, “we can’t just keep our heads in the sand”. The reality is the hydrocarbon industry…

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24 марта, 23:27

Norwegian Oil Plays Struggling After Oil Price Collapse

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Norwegian crude oil extraction peaked in 2001 at 3.12 Million barrels per day (Mb/d) and in 2016 it was 1.62 Mb/d, growing from 1.57 Mb/d in 2015 and 1,46 Mb/d in 2013 (a growth of 10 percent since 2013). The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s (NPD) recent forecast expects crude oil extracted from the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) to fall to 1.60 Mb/d in 2017. (Click to enlarge) Figure 01: The chart shows the historical extraction (production) of crude oil (by discovery/field) for the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) with data from…

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24 марта, 23:26

Are The Survivors Of The Offshore Bust A Buy?

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I know that many of the oil analysts out there have gone weak on me. Unable to believe in the inevitable re-balancing of the oil market, they continue to see long, flat markets in oil prices coming for the next year, perhaps two. Even OPEC and the IEA, in need to put out conservative projections, are only looking for $60 oil at best by the end of 2017. You know, I think they’re all wrong. There’s nothing that has proven to be more wrong than counting on an absolute ceiling – or floor – in oil prices in the last decade. Meanwhile,…

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24 марта, 23:26

The No.1 Contrarian Play In Oil

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Regular readers of my ramblings will be aware that I don’t believe that this drop in oil will be of any long term significance. It is understandable, for sure, as the focus is on supply figures and inventories that indicate that U.S. shale producers are back in business and at least making up for the OPEC cuts. There are, however, three reasons that it is not a long term price adjustment. Firstly, that shale production is, as we are already all too aware, extremely price sensitive. It has become the marginal source of oil and the cutoff for…

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24 марта, 23:26

Oil Industry Not Hedged For 2018

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Friday March 24, 2016 In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we’ll take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy sector. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers. Let’s take a look. 1. Global CO2 emissions flat for 3rd Year in a row (Click to enlarge)- Even as global GDP grew, global CO2 emissions held steady for a third consecutive year in 2016, according to the IEA. Economic growth continues to slowly decouple from fossil fuel consumption.-…

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24 марта, 23:14

Global Energy Advisory March 24th 2017

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Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict • Violence in South Sudan has further spiked after the announcement of a $500-million oil exploration deal between the government and Nigerian Oranto Petroleum. Rebel forces loyal to former Vice President Riek Machar have kidnapped two groups of oil workers over the past couple of weeks. One of the kidnappings involved employees of Oranto, while five others, including an engineer with the DAR consortium, were also kidnapped. The DAR consortium includes Chinese Sinopec and CNPC, and Malaysia’s Petronas.…