Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
25 марта, 01:13

No. 875: Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales, Freight Index, Business Cycle

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(SGS Subscription required) • Details of Economic Depression versus Recession, Recovery and Expansion • Amidst Signals of Renewed Downturn, the Broad Business Outlook Continues for Non-Recovering Activity and Economic Disruption • Net of Inflation and Irregularly-Surging Commercial Aircraft Orders, the Headline Gain of 1.7% in February Durable Goods Orders Was a Monthly Contraction of 0.3% (-0.3%) • Freight Index Annual Growth Moved Higher for Third Straight Month, Still Holding in a Pattern of Low-Level Stagnation • Suggestive of Continuing Financial-System Liquidity Stresses, Rising Portions of Existing-Home Sales Were in Foreclosure and/or Were All Cash Sales • Mixed Monthly Activity in February New- and Existing-Home Sales Continued in the Context of Low-Level Non-Recovery

18 марта, 01:12

No. 874: February Industrial Production, Updated Economic Review

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(SGS Subscription required) • Industrial Production May Be Bottoming, Yet, There Are New Signals of Intensifying Economic Risk • Production Was Flat in February, Minimally Positive Year-to-Year, with Gains in Manufacturing and Mining Offset by Weather-Distorted Utilities • No Economic Expansion: Activity Held Below Pre-2007 Recession Peaks, with Production Down by 0.94% (-0.94%), Manufacturing Down by 4.97% (-4.97%) • Major Downside Revisions to Production Activity of Recent Years Likely Loom with the March 31st Annual Benchmarking Going Back to 1972 • General Outlook Remains in Place for Continuing Near-Term Economic Stagnation and Renewed Downturn

17 марта, 00:48

No. 873: February New Residential Construction, FOMC Policy

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(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Focus Remains Banking-System Solvency; Economic Activity and Inflation Are Secondary Concerns, Other than for Banking-System Impact • Dollar Selling and Gold Buying Suggest Markets Are Sensing Trouble • Housing Starts Hit a Post-World War II Low in 2009; Yet, February 2017 Activity Still Has Not Recovered the Pre-Recession Peak Level of Any Post-World War II Downturn • February Housing Starts Six-Month Moving Average Hit Its Highest Level Since the 2009 Economic Trough, Activity Last Seen in 1995, but It Still Is 44% (-44%) Shy of the Pre-2007 Recession Peak Level • Headline Monthly February Housing Starts and Building Permits Held in Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation, Down Respectively by 43% (-43%) and 46% (-46%) from Their Pre-Recession Highs

16 марта, 00:44

No. 872: February PPI, CPI, Retail Sales and Earnings and the FOMC

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(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Fiddles with Boosting Interest Rates, While Annual Real M3 Growth Just Plunged to a New Signal for a Major Economic Downturn • Annual Contraction in First-Quarter Real Earnings Is a Virtual Certainty; Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions Also Are in Play; Circumstances Not Seen Since the Stalled GDP of Second-Half 2012 • February Nominal Retail Sales Gain of 0.08% Was Less than Inflation; Inflation-Adjusted Real Sales Declined by 0.04% (-0.04%) for the Month • Headline Annual Inflation Surge Has Been Due to Energy-Price Distortions, Not to an Overheating Economy • February 2017 Monthly CPI Inflation Rose by 0.12%, Pushing Annual CPI-U Inflation to a 60-Month High of 2.74%, with CPI-W at 2.82% and ShadowStats at 10.5% • February Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation Hit a 59-Month High of 2.19%

11 марта, 01:00

No. 871: February Labor Conditions, Help Wanted Online, Money Supply M3, Consumer Liquidity

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(SGS Subscription required) • Real World Employment Prospects Deteriorated in February 2017, Plunging at an Annual Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the Economic Collapse into 2009 • Nonetheless, FOMC Hawks Got Their Strong Headline Jobs Report • Headline Employment and Unemployment Remained Nonsensical and Generally Not Comparable Month-to-Month or Otherwise • Payroll Employment, Which Gained 235,000 Jobs in February, Counts Each Part-Time Job as an Employed Individual • Household Survey Employment Counts Each Individual Only Once; Multiple Job Holders Gained 260,000 in February • February Unemployment Rates Dropped: U.3 Declined to 4.7% from 4.8%, U.6 Fell to 9.2% from 9.4%, ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 22.7% from 22.9% • February Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Sank to a 55-Month Low, Closing in on a Formal Recession Signal

07 марта, 19:46

No. 870: January Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Household Income, Pending FOMC

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(SGS Subscription required) • Beware the Ides of March! • FOMC Targeting Growth-Killing Rate Hikes in an Economy that Is Foundering, Not Overheating? • January Real Median Household Income Continued to Falter, Down Year-to-Year for the Second Straight Month • First-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise-Trade Deficit Is on Track for Worst Showing Since First-Quarter 2007, An Early Negative for the GDP • If the Current Trend in Trade Is Not Altered, Third-Quarter 2017 Real Deficit Would Be Worst Ever • Real Construction Spending Remained in Stagnant Non-Recovery, Down for the Month and Year, Amidst Upside Revisions and Rising Inflation, Still Shy of Its Pre-Recession High by 22% (-22%)

28 февраля, 20:01

No. 869: Second Estimate of Fourth-Quarter GDP, Revamping Government Statistics

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(SGS Subscription required) • New Administration Needs to Overhaul Economic Reporting • How Can Headline Real GDP Be Up 12.1% from Its Pre-Recession High, While Industrial Production Is Down 1.1% (-1.1%), and Manufacturing Is Down 5.7% (-5.7%)? • How Can GDP Be in Its 22nd Quarter of Expansion, When Industrial Production is in Its 36th Quarter of Non-Expansion, Rivaling Its Great Depression Run of 37 Quarters? • Underlying Economic/Financial Pain on Main Street U.S.A. Led to the Change of Government • Political Circumstances May be Disquieting to Some, but Underlying Economic Dislocations Have to be Addressed • Revised Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth of 1.88% (Previously 1.90%) Avoided Notching Down to a Rounded 1.8%, Thanks to Lowered Inflation • 2016 Annual GDP Growth Still Was Weakest Since the Economic Collapse, Both Before and After Inflation Adjustment • Better-Quality Indicators of Broad Business Activity Continue to Show the Economy Never Recovered from Its Collapse into 2009

Выбор редакции
27 февраля, 18:35

No. 868: January 2017 New Orders for Durable Goods

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(SGS Subscription required) • Aggregate, Inflation-Adjusted Real New Orders for Durable Goods Rose Month-to-Month but Fell Year-to-Year • Ex-Commercial Aircraft, Real Orders Were Unchanged for the Month but Rose Year-to-Year • Real Orders Confirmed Ongoing Patterns of Low-Level Economic Stagnation

24 февраля, 20:23

No. 867: Economic Update, January Freight Index, New- and Existing-Home Sales

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(SGS Subscription required) • Mixed Signals on Economic Bottoming • Is a Second Bottom at Hand for the Economic Collapse into 2009? • Freight Index Annual Growth Moved Higher for Second Straight Month • Broad Economic Activity Remains in Low-Level Stagnation, Never Having Recovered Its Pre-Collapse Peak • In Ongoing Double-Dip Downturn, Industrial Production Is Two Months Shy of Matching the 113-Month Duration of the Double-Dip Great Depression • January New- and Existing-Home Sales Monthly and Annual Gains Continued in the Context of Low-Level, Broad Stagnation

17 февраля, 01:00

No. 866: January 2017 CPI, PPI, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Housing Starts

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(SGS Subscription required) • Inflation Surge Was Due to Gasoline Prices, Not to an Overheating Economy; Beware the Fed! • January 2017 Monthly CPI Inflation Rose by 0.55%, Pushing Annual CPI-U Inflation to a 58-Month High of 2.50%, with CPI-W at 2.51% and ShadowStats at 10.3% • January Monthly PPI Goods Inflation Up by 1.01%, Construction Up by 0.26%, Services Up by 0.27%, Total PPI Up by 0.63%; Total Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation at a 29-Month High of 1.73% • Inflation-Adjusted Annual M3 Growth Is Signaling an Economic Downturn • January Nominal Retail Sales Gain of 0.36% Was Less than Inflation; Inflation-Adjusted Real Sales Declined by 0.19% (-0.19%) for the Month • Real Earnings Contracted Quarterly in Fourth-Quarter 2016, On Track for First-Quarter 2017 Annual and Quarterly Declines • January Production Was Down by 1.11% (-1.11%) from Its Pre-Recession High, Down by 2.00% (-2.00%) from Its One-Month, November 2014 Recovery; Manufacturing Was Down 5.69% (-5.69%) from a Never-Recovered Pre-Recession Peak • Despite Continuing Nonsense Volatility in Monthly Data and Revisions, Smoothed Housing Starts and Permits Held in Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation, Down Respectively by 45% (-45%) and 43% (-43%) from Pre-Recession Peaks • Broad Outlook of Continuing Economic Stagnation/Renewed Downturn Is Unchanged

Выбор редакции
08 февраля, 23:50

No. 865: December 2016 Trade Deficit

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(SGS Subscription required) • Quarterly and Annual Real Merchandise-Trade Deficits Were Worst Since 2007 • Implied Downside Revision to Fourth-Quarter GDP • U.S. Trade Swings to a 2016 Surplus with OPEC, Given Shifting Oil Prices and Production

08 февраля, 18:12

No. 864: Labor Detail and Revisions, Construction Spending and Consumer Liquidity

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(SGS Subscription required) • Fourth-Quarter and Annual 2016 Real Merchandise-Trade Deficits Were Worst in 10 Years, with Implied Negative GDP Revisions • Downside Payroll Benchmark Revisions to First-Half 2016 were Accompanied by an Offsetting Growth Accelerator Added to Second-Half 2016 • Upside Annual Bias Factors Were Boosted to Roughly 993,000 Jobs from 841,000, Despite Indicated Overstatement of 2016 Payroll Growth • Current Employment Gains Exaggerated by Highly Questionable Revisions and Revamped Seasonal-Adjustment Modeling (Still Not Comparable Month-to-Month) • Annual Growth Rates in January Payrolls and Full-Time Employment Still at Multi-Year Lows; Payroll Growth Weakest Since Exiting the Recession • January 2017 Unemployment Rates Rose: U.3 Rose to 4.8% from 4.7%, U.6 Rose to 9.4% from 9.2%, ShadowStats-Alternate Rate Rose to 22.9% from 22.7% • Real Construction Spending Remained in Stagnant Non-Recovery, Still 23% (-23%) Shy of Its Pre-Recession High • December Real Median Household Income Took a Statistically-Significant Hit • January 2017 M3 Annual Growth at 3.6%, in Context of a Major Fed Benchmarking Reducing M3 and M2 Annual Growth Rates, Reflecting an Intensifying Flight to Cash into M1