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Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
24 июня, 00:18

No. 894: Economic- and Financial-System Conditions, May Household Income and Home Sales

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(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Economy Is Turning Down Anew, Threatening Banking-System Stability, Likely to Roil FOMC Policy, with Sharply-Negative Impact on the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Equities, Spiking Inflation and Prices of Gold and Silver • Major Market Turmoil Increasingly Likely in the Near Future • Headline Economic Data in the Month Ahead Could Signal a Day-of-Reckoning at Hand • Despite a Monthly Boost from Falling Gasoline Prices, May 2017 Real Median Household Income Was Statistically Unchanged • Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Rose in May, Yet Both Series Were on Track for Second-Quarter Contractions • May Existing-Homes Sales Down by 22.7% (-22.7%) and New-Home Sales Down by 56.1% (-56.1%) from Pre-Recession Peaks

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16 июня, 19:45

No. 893: May 2017 Housing Starts, Consumer Liquidity Update

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(SGS Subscription required) • May Housing Starts Plummeted on Top of Downside Revisions, Confounding Happy, Rebounding Consensus Expectations • Stagnant to Downtrending Activity Remained Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks by 52.0% (-52.0%) for Housing Starts and by 48.4% (-48.4%) for Building Permits • Consumer Liquidity Stresses Continue to Restrain Broad Economic Growth

16 июня, 01:08

No. 892: May Industrial Production, FOMC, U.S. Dollar and Gold

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(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Faces Deteriorating Economic Conditions and Renewed Solvency Stresses in the Banking System • June 14th Rate Hike Could Be the Last One for This Cycle • U.S. Dollar Near a Peak? Gold Price Near a Trough? • Headline Unchanged Production and Drop of 0.4% (-0.4%) in Manufacturing Were Boosted by Downside Revisions to March and April Activity • Still No Full Economic Recovery as of May 2017 Reporting, with Production and Manufacturing Down Respectively by Deepened, Net Contractions of 0.3% (-0.3%) and 6.1% (-6.1%) from Pre-Recession Highs • With No End in Sight, 113 Months of Continual Non-Expanding Manufacturing Is the Longest Period of Non-Recovery in the 99-Year History of U.S. Industrial Production, Topping the 96-Month Post-World War II Manufacturing Realignment and the 88-Month Slump in the First Down-Leg of the Great Depression

15 июня, 01:04

May Retail Sales, Earnings, Consumer and Producer Price Indices, FOMC

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(SGS Subscription required) • With Increasingly Adverse Economic Data, FOMC Hiked the Fed Funds Rate • May 2017 Nominal Retail Sales Fell by 0.3% (-0.3%), Despite a Gimmicked Monthly Sales Boost of 0.2% from Seasonal-Factor Distortions • Headline Real May Retail Sales Sank by 0.13% (-0.13%), Despite a CPI Contraction of 0.13% (-0.13%) • Recession Signal Intensified Sharply • First-Quarter Real Average Weekly Earnings Held in Annual Decline, Along with Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; Despite No Growth in May, Weak Inflation Boosted Second-Quarter Real Earnings Trend • Headline CPI-U Inflation Declined by 0.13% (-0.13%) in May 2017, Pulling Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 1.87% (Was 2.20%), with CPI-W at 1.78% (Was 2.14%) and ShadowStats at 9.6% (was 10.0%) • May 2017 Annual Final-Demand PPI at 2.36%, Minimally Backed Off a 62-Month High of 2.45% in April • Annual PPI Inflation Boosted by Poor-Quality Theoretical Constructs, Such as Declining Gasoline Prices Spiking Services Inflation

06 июня, 01:13

No. 890: May Employment, April Construction Spending and Trade Deficit Revisions

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(SGS Subscription required) • Trade-Deficit Benchmarking Showed Deeper Deficits 2014-to-Date, with Implications for Downside Benchmark Revisions to the GDP • Second-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Is on Track for Worst Showing Since Second-Quarter 2007 • In Uptrending, Low-Level Stagnation, April Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peak by 12.6% (-12.6%) • May Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline, at a Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse • Monthly Payroll Gains Slowed on Top of Downside, Prior-Period Revisions • Slowing, Unadjusted Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Held at Low Levels Common to Periods Preceding Economic Recession • May 2017 Unemployment: U.3 Declined to 4.3% from 4.4%, U.6 Fell to 8.4% from 8.6% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Eased to 22.0% from 22.1% • Labor Numbers Out of Balance: April 2017 Headline Unemployment of 4.3%, Lowest Since March 2001, Coincided with Weakening, Near-Historic Lows in the Participation Rate (Labor Force/Population) and Employment-to-Population Ratio • In Contrast, March 2001 Headline Unemployment of 4.3% Coincided with Participation Rates and Employment-Population Ratios Just Off Historic Highs • Real Construction Spending Remained 21.3% (-21.3%) Short of Recovering its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation • Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Rose to 3.6% in May, versus 3.4% in April

26 мая, 20:30

No. 889: GDP Revision, April Durable Goods and Home Sales

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(SGS Subscription required) • Nonsense in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Reporting • Gross Domestic Income (GDI) - Theoretical Equivalent of the GDP - Gained 0.85% in First-Quarter 2017, After a Revised Fourth-Quarter Contraction of 1.38% (-1.38%), Previously up by 1.00% • First-Quarter 2017 GDI Activity Still Is Below Third-Quarter 2016 • Headline First-Quarter Details Otherwise Showed Stalling Economy, with GDP at 1.15%, GDI at 0.85%, GNP at 0.99% • Better-Quality Series Still Show Continuing, Protracted Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs and No Economic Expansion • In the Context of Downside Benchmark Revisions, Durable Goods Orders Declined Month-to-Month, Before and After Inflation and/or Commercial Aircraft Orders • Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Declined in March, In the Continuing Context of Low-Level, Non-Recovered Stagnation • Real Median Monthly Household Income Has Shown No Net Gain Since February 2002

23 мая, 00:48

SPECIAL COMMENTARY No. 888: Political Stability versus the Economy and Financial Markets, Durable Goods Benchmarking, Consumer Liquidity

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(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Political-System Instability Would Threaten U.S. Dollar, Financial-Market and Economic Tranquility • Downwardly-Benchmarked Durable Goods Orders and Shipments of Manufacturers Showed Weaker Historical Economic Activity and Potential Downside GDP Revisions • Heavily-Stressed Consumer Liquidity Conditions Continue to Prevent Sustainable Economic Growth

19 мая, 02:25

No. 887: April Industrial Production and Housing Starts

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(SGS Subscription required) • April Industrial Production Showed Solid Monthly Gains, Moving Off Bottom • That Said, 112 Months of Continuing Non-Expansion in U.S. Manufacturing Is the Worst String of Non-Recovery in the 99-Year History of Industrial Production • It Tops the 96-Month Post-World War II Manufacturing Realignment, and the 88-Month Slump in the First Down-Leg of the Great Depression • Still No Recovery: Activity Held Below Pre-Recession Peaks, with Production Down by 0.2% (-0.2%), Manufacturing Down by 5.6% (-5.6%) and Housing Starts Down by 48.4% (-48.4%) • Annual Revisions to Housing Starts Pushed the Series into a Downtrend, Reflecting a Near-Term Hit to Multiple-Unit Starts • 2016 Durable Goods Orders Just Took a 2.8% (-2.8%) Benchmarking Hit

17 мая, 04:06

No. 886: Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Consumer and Producer Prices

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(SGS Subscription required) • Annual Real Retail Sales Growth Has Resettled at Recession-Signal Level • First-Quarter Real Average Weekly Earnings Held in Annual Decline, Along with Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; April Detail Was Mixed; Consumer Liquidity Stresses Continued to Intensify • Headline CPI-U Inflation Rose by 0.17% in April 2017, Pulling Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 2.20% (Was 2.38%), with CPI-W at 2.14% (Was 2.35%) and ShadowStats at 10.0% (was 10.1%) • April Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation Hit a 62-Month High of 2.45% • Moving Off Bottom, April Industrial Production Showed Solid Gains, but Production and Manufacturing Still Remained Below Their Pre-Recession Highs • Declining April Housing Starts Held Shy of Pre-Recession Peak by 48.4% (-48.4%); First-Quarter Starts Revised to a Quarterly Contraction, Amidst Annual Revisions

08 мая, 22:47

No. 885: Numbers Games that Statistical Bureaus, Central Banks and Politicians Play

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(SGS Subscription required) • April 2017 Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 • Headline Employment/Unemployment Numbers Were Too Good • Jobs Gain Boosted by Heavily-Distorted Seasonals and Unusually-Large Upside Biases • Unadjusted Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Dropped to a 68-Month Low • Last Time Annual Payroll Growth Declined to that Level, the Economy Had Started Its Collapse into the 2007 Recession • Household Survey Showed Shift from Part-Time to Full-Time Employment • April Unemployment of 4.40% Was a 1-in-1,000 Shot; Could It Have Been Targeted? • That Said, April Unemployment: U.3 Declined to 4.4% from 4.5%, U.6 Fell to 8.6% from 8.9% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 22.1% from 22.5% • Those Were the Lowest, Headline Unemployment Rates for U.3 since May 2007, for U.6 since November 2007 and for ShadowStats since October 2010 • Nominal Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Rebounded to 3.3% in April, Versus 3.1% February and March, Otherwise at a 39-Month Low

05 мая, 01:01

No. 884: March 2017 Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Real-World Employment

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(SGS Subscription required) • April 2017 Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline at a Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse • First-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Narrowed Minimally versus What Had Been on Track for a Minimal Widening • Despite a Decline in March, First-Quarter Construction Spending Surged with Massive, Upside Monthly Revisions to January and February Activity • Real Construction Spending Remained 21.1% (-21.1%) Shy of Recovering its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation

Выбор редакции
29 апреля, 16:43

No. 883: First-Quarter 2017 GDP, Consumer Liquidity

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(SGS Subscription required) • Weaker-than-Expected First-Quarter GDP Real Growth of 0.69% Was Suggestive of Stalling Economic Activity • Headline Growth Likely Faces Downside Revisions in the Next Two Months • Final Sales (GDP Net of Inventory Change) Rose to 1.62% from 1.07% • Better-Quality Series Show Continuing, Protracted Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs and No Economic Expansion • First-Quarter 2017 Velocity of Money Rose Minimally for M3, Declined for M1 and M2 • Renewed Stresses on Consumer Liquidity