Источник
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
23 мая, 00:48

SPECIAL COMMENTARY No. 888: Political Stability versus the Economy and Financial Markets, Durable Goods Benchmarking, Consumer Liquidity

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(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Political-System Instability Would Threaten U.S. Dollar, Financial-Market and Economic Tranquility • Downwardly-Benchmarked Durable Goods Orders and Shipments of Manufacturers Showed Weaker Historical Economic Activity and Potential Downside GDP Revisions • Heavily-Stressed Consumer Liquidity Conditions Continue to Prevent Sustainable Economic Growth

19 мая, 02:25

No. 887: April Industrial Production and Housing Starts

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(SGS Subscription required) • April Industrial Production Showed Solid Monthly Gains, Moving Off Bottom • That Said, 112 Months of Continuing Non-Expansion in U.S. Manufacturing Is the Worst String of Non-Recovery in the 99-Year History of Industrial Production • It Tops the 96-Month Post-World War II Manufacturing Realignment, and the 88-Month Slump in the First Down-Leg of the Great Depression • Still No Recovery: Activity Held Below Pre-Recession Peaks, with Production Down by 0.2% (-0.2%), Manufacturing Down by 5.6% (-5.6%) and Housing Starts Down by 48.4% (-48.4%) • Annual Revisions to Housing Starts Pushed the Series into a Downtrend, Reflecting a Near-Term Hit to Multiple-Unit Starts • 2016 Durable Goods Orders Just Took a 2.8% (-2.8%) Benchmarking Hit

17 мая, 04:06

No. 886: Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Consumer and Producer Prices

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(SGS Subscription required) • Annual Real Retail Sales Growth Has Resettled at Recession-Signal Level • First-Quarter Real Average Weekly Earnings Held in Annual Decline, Along with Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; April Detail Was Mixed; Consumer Liquidity Stresses Continued to Intensify • Headline CPI-U Inflation Rose by 0.17% in April 2017, Pulling Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 2.20% (Was 2.38%), with CPI-W at 2.14% (Was 2.35%) and ShadowStats at 10.0% (was 10.1%) • April Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation Hit a 62-Month High of 2.45% • Moving Off Bottom, April Industrial Production Showed Solid Gains, but Production and Manufacturing Still Remained Below Their Pre-Recession Highs • Declining April Housing Starts Held Shy of Pre-Recession Peak by 48.4% (-48.4%); First-Quarter Starts Revised to a Quarterly Contraction, Amidst Annual Revisions

08 мая, 22:47

No. 885: Numbers Games that Statistical Bureaus, Central Banks and Politicians Play

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(SGS Subscription required) • April 2017 Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3 • Headline Employment/Unemployment Numbers Were Too Good • Jobs Gain Boosted by Heavily-Distorted Seasonals and Unusually-Large Upside Biases • Unadjusted Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Dropped to a 68-Month Low • Last Time Annual Payroll Growth Declined to that Level, the Economy Had Started Its Collapse into the 2007 Recession • Household Survey Showed Shift from Part-Time to Full-Time Employment • April Unemployment of 4.40% Was a 1-in-1,000 Shot; Could It Have Been Targeted? • That Said, April Unemployment: U.3 Declined to 4.4% from 4.5%, U.6 Fell to 8.6% from 8.9% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 22.1% from 22.5% • Those Were the Lowest, Headline Unemployment Rates for U.3 since May 2007, for U.6 since November 2007 and for ShadowStats since October 2010 • Nominal Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Rebounded to 3.3% in April, Versus 3.1% February and March, Otherwise at a 39-Month Low

05 мая, 01:01

No. 884: March 2017 Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Real-World Employment

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(SGS Subscription required) • April 2017 Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline at a Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse • First-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Narrowed Minimally versus What Had Been on Track for a Minimal Widening • Despite a Decline in March, First-Quarter Construction Spending Surged with Massive, Upside Monthly Revisions to January and February Activity • Real Construction Spending Remained 21.1% (-21.1%) Shy of Recovering its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation

Выбор редакции
29 апреля, 16:43

No. 883: First-Quarter 2017 GDP, Consumer Liquidity

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(SGS Subscription required) • Weaker-than-Expected First-Quarter GDP Real Growth of 0.69% Was Suggestive of Stalling Economic Activity • Headline Growth Likely Faces Downside Revisions in the Next Two Months • Final Sales (GDP Net of Inventory Change) Rose to 1.62% from 1.07% • Better-Quality Series Show Continuing, Protracted Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs and No Economic Expansion • First-Quarter 2017 Velocity of Money Rose Minimally for M3, Declined for M1 and M2 • Renewed Stresses on Consumer Liquidity

28 апреля, 00:44

No. 882: March Durable Goods Orders and Home Sales, Retail Sales Annual Revisions

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(SGS Subscription required) • Benchmarked Retail Sales Revised Higher with 2015 Survey Details, but Subsequent Annual Growth Revised Sharply Lower, to Date, Generating a New, Traditional Signal for Recession • Net of Inflation and Irregularly-Surging Commercial Aircraft Orders, the Headline Gain of 0.7% in March 2017 Durable Goods Orders Was 0.1%; Real Activity Continued in Low-Level, Non-Recovered Stagnation • Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Rose in March, In the Continuing Context of Low-Level, Non-Recovered Stagnation • Despite Big Boost from Headline Drop in March CPI, March Real Median Household Income Was Statistically Unchanged, Still Holding Below January 2000 and Signaling Consumer Liquidity Stresses

20 апреля, 01:00

No. 881 March Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Freight Index, Economic Review

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(SGS Subscription required) • Broad Outlook Continues for Economic Stagnation and an Intensifying Downturn • Unusual Weather Patterns Boosted March Utility Usage by a Record 8.6%; Otherwise, the 0.5% Production Gain Was a Contraction of 0.4% (-0.4%) • Dominant Manufacturing Sector Dropped by 0.4% (-0.4%) on Top of Downside Revisions to January and February (Automobile Manufacturing Fell) • Mining Sector Rose by 0.1%, Reflecting Soaring Gold Mining and Oil Production, Largely Offset by Plunging Coal Mining • Still No Economic Expansion: Activity Held Below Pre-Recession Peaks, with Production Down by 1.2% (-1.2%), Manufacturing Down by 6.4% (-6.4%) and Housing Starts Down by 46.5% (-46.5%) • Residential Construction Continued in Low-Level, Non-Recovering Stagnation • Freight Index Continued in Low-Level, Non-Recovering Stagnation

15 апреля, 23:15

No. 880 : March CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Real Earnings, Consumer Update

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• Substantially Adverse Economic Circumstances Have Begun to Unfold, Threatening FOMC Hopes for Normalizing Monetary Policy • Amidst Mounting Income and Credit Stresses on Consumers, Headline Retail Sales Suffered Major, Near-Term Downside Revisions; Recent Auto Sales Were Not As Strong as Advertised • First-Quarter Real Average Weekly Earnings Declined Year-to-Year, Along with Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions, Circumstances Not Seen Since the Stalled GDP of Second-Half 2012 • Real Growth in Consumer Credit Outstanding Has Faltered in a Manner Also Not Seen Since the Stalled GDP of Second-Half 2012 • Headline CPI-U Inflation Fell by 0.29% (-0.29%) in March, Pushing Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 2.38% (Was 2.74%), with CPI-W at 2.35% (Was 2.82%) and ShadowStats at 10.1% (was 10.5%) • March Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation Hit a 60-Month High of 2.28%

08 апреля, 01:51

No. 879: March Employment and Unemployment, Help-Wanted Advertising, Money Supply M3

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(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC-Rattling 'Substantially Adverse Economic Circumstances' Loom • March 2017 Real-World Employment Prospects Continued to Plunge at an Annual Pace of Decline Not Seen Since the Depths of the Economic Collapse • Soft Payroll Jobs Gain of 98,000 in March Was Not Statistically Significant • Declining Monthly Unemployment Rates Simply Were Not Comparable • That Said, March Unemployment: U.3 Declined to 4.5% from 4.7%, U.6 Fell to 8.9% from 9.2% and ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 22.5% from 22.7% • Those Were the Lowest, Headline Unemployment Rates for U.3 since May 2007, for U.6 since December 2008 and for ShadowStats since April 2012 • Nominal Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Sank to a 57-Month Low in March, Real Growth Declined to a Level Not Seen Since Depths of the Economic Collapse

04 апреля, 19:51

No. 878: February Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Updated Consumer Liquidity

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(SGS Subscription required) • Sharp Narrowing in February 2017 Trade Deficit Reflected Plunging Imports of Consumer Goods, Such as Autos and Cell Phones • Declining Consumer Demand and/or a One-Time Reporting Aberration? • First-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise-Trade Is on Track for Worst Deficit Since Third-Quarter 2007 • Despite a Nominal 0.8% Monthly Gain in February Construction Spending, Inflation-Adjusted Activity Remained in Stagnant Non-Recovery, Headed for First-Quarter 2017 Quarterly and Annual Contractions • Consumers Face Continuing Income and Credit Stresses, Amidst Mixed Optimism

02 апреля, 20:50

No. 877: Industrial Production Benchmark Revision

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(SGS Subscription required) • Industrial Production Just Took a Hit with Its Benchmark Revisions, Given Higher-Quality, Weaker Historical Data from 2015 • Double-Dip Recession in Production Now Steeper than Previously Indicated • Two or More Consecutive Quarters of Annual Decline in Production Are Unprecedented Outside of Formally-Recognized Recessions; There Were Five, Now There Are Seven Consecutive Quarters in Place • Gold and Silver Mining Activity Revised Sharply Higher • Negative Indications for Pending Benchmark Revisions to Retail Sales, Durable Goods Orders and the GDP • Broad Outlook Continues for Non-Recovering Economic Activity • Issues Foreshadow FOMC Problems, a Weaker Dollar and Stronger Gold