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Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
16 сентября, 01:47

No. 910: August 2017 Retail Sales and Industrial Production

(SGS Subscription required) • Net of Hurricane Harvey Effects, Headline Economic Numbers Still Were Miserable, Suggestive of Recession • Hurricane Impact on August Activity: Mixed, Probably Net-Neutral for Retail Sales; Accounted for 0.75% (-0.75%) of the 0.90% (-0.90%) Drop in Monthly Production • August Real Retail Sales Declined by 0.61% (-0.61%) in the Month, Plunged by 1.24% (-1.24%) Net of Downside, Prior-Period Revisions • Third-Quarter Real Retail Sales Are Contracting at an Early (Two-Month) Annualized Pace of 0.4% (-0.4%) • Ex-Hurricane, August Industrial Production Declined by 0.15% (-0.15%) • In the Dominant but Still-Faltering Manufacturing Sector of Production: A Record 116 Months of Continued Non-Expansion, with No End in Sight

15 сентября, 01:06

No. 909: CPI and PPI, Real Median Household Income, Market and Economic Outlook

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(SGS Subscription required) • Trouble in Hand and Looming • Consistently Surveyed, Reported and as Deflated by the Headline CPI-U, 2016 Median Household Income Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession 2007 Peak, Below Levels of the Late-1990s and Minimally Higher than Levels of the Mid-1970s • 2016 Income Variance and Dispersion Increased, Holding Near Record Highs, Signaling Severe Financial-Market and Economic Stresses in Place • Real Average Weekly Earnings Declined in August • Hurricane Harvey May Have Had Minimal Impact on Inflation Data Gathering, but It Certainly Added Upside Pressure on Petroleum-Related Market Prices • August CPI-U Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.40% Pulled Annual CPI-U Inflation Higher to 1.94% (Was 1.73%), with CPI-W at 1.93% (Was 1.64%) and ShadowStats at 9.7% (Was 9.4%) August 2017 Annual Final-Demand PPI Rose to 2.35% from 1.90% in July • Faltering Economic Activity and Intensifying Political Discord Continue to Peril the Dollar and Intensify Risks in Markets Vulnerable to Turmoil

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06 сентября, 23:50

No. 908-B: August Labor Detail and Payroll Benchmarking, July Trade Deficit and Construction

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(SGS Subscription required) • Benchmark Revision Added 95,000 Jobs to March 2017 Payrolls • Amidst Narrowed Revisions, July 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened; Most-Recent Four Quarters of Real Deficit to Second-Quarter 2017 Were Worst Since 2007; With That Trend Continuing into Early Third-Quarter • August 2017 Unemployment Rates Notched Higher: U.3 Rose to 4.44% versus 4.35%, U.6 Rose to 8.59% versus 8.57%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 22.2% versus 22.1% • August Household Survey Employment Declined by 74,000 (-74,000); Full-Time Jobs Dropped by 166,000 (-166,000) • Weaker-Than-Expected August Payroll Jobs Gain of 156,000 was Just 115,000 Net of the July Revisions, Within Range of Statistical Insignificance • August Payroll and Full-Time Employment Annual Growth Rates Dropped to 1.45% and 1.16%, Levels Common at the Onset of Recessions • Deepening Real Annual Decline in July 2017 Construction Spending Continued in a Manner Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse, Despite Upside Revisions to May and June Activity • Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.1% (-23.1%), Real Construction Spending Continued in Intensifying Downtrend • Faltering Economic Activity and Intensifying Political Discord Increasingly Peril the Dollar and Intensify Risks of Market Turmoil

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01 сентября, 18:31

No. 908-A: August Labor and Monetary Conditions, July Construction Spending

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(SGS Subscription required) • August 2017 Unemployment Rates Notched Higher: U.3 Rose to 4.44% versus 4.35%, U.6 Rose to 8.59% versus 8.57%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 22.2% versus 22.1% • Full-Time Jobs Dropped by 166,000 (-166,000) in July • Weaker-Than-Expected August Payroll Jobs Gain of 156,000 was Just 115,000 Net of the Prior Month's Revisions, Well Within Range of Statistical Insignificance • Payroll Revisions Suggestive of Looming Negative Benchmarking • Annual Payroll and Full-Time Employment Growth Rates Dropped to 1.45% and 1.16%, Levels Common at the Onset of Recessions • Deepening Real Annual Decline in July 2017 Construction Spending Continued in a Manner Last Seen in the Housing Collapse of 2006, Despite Upside Revisions to May and June Activity • Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.1% (-23.1%), Real Construction Spending Continued in Intensifying Downtrend • August 2017 Money Supply M3 Annual Growth and Monetary Base Jumped in Tandem; M3 Growth Rose to an Eight-Month High of 3.6%, While the Growth and Level of the Saint Louis Fed Monetary-Base Climbed to Seventeen-Month Highs as of August 16th • Faltering Economic Activity and Intensifying Political Discord Increasingly Peril the Dollar and Intensify Risks of Market Turmoil

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31 августа, 01:02

No. 907: Second-Quarter Revised GDP, Initial GDI and GNP, Private Jobs Surveying

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(SGS Subscription required) • Private Surveying of August Labor Conditions Suggests Continuing Collapse • Despite Booming Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Negligible Real Annual Growth in Per Capita Disposable Income Signaled an Imminent Recession or One Already in Play • Second-Quarter 2017 GDP Revised to 3.03% (Previously 2.57%), Versus 1.24% in First-Quarter • Second-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Hit 2.88%, Versus 2.68% (Previously 2.63%) in First-Quarter • Second-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Hit 2.80%, Versus 0.94% in First-Quarter • Better-Quality Measures than the Upwardly-Biased GDP Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse, No Economic Expansion and Real-World Activity Increasingly Stagnant or in Renewed Downturn

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25 августа, 20:06

No. 906: July New Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales

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(SGS Subscription required) • Faltering Economic Activity and Intensifying Political Discord Continue to Peril the Dollar and to Intensify Risks of Market Turmoil • Better-Quality Reporting than Gimmicked GDP and Employment Shows No Full Recovery from the Economic Collapse, No Economic Expansion, with Real Business Activity Increasingly Stagnant or in Renewed Downturn • Net of Headline Inflation and Gyrations in Commercial-Aircraft Orders, New Orders Were Down by 9.3% (-9.3%) from Their Non-Recovered, Pre-Recession Peak • Offering Some Caution for Booming Headline Retail Sales, Motor Vehicle Orders and Shipments Declined in June and July • Housing and Construction Activity Continued In Deepening Contraction; Six-Month Smoothed Trends All Have Turned Down • New- and Existing-Home Sales Fell in July, into Third-Quarter 2017, Having Contracted in Second-Quarter 2017 • July Existing-Home Sales Were Down by 25.2% (-25.2%) and New-Home Sales Were Down by 58.9% (-58.9%) from Pre-Recession Peaks • Parallel Monthly and Quarterly Declines Were Seen Recently in July Building Permits and Housing Starts, Respectively Also Down by 46.0% (-46.0%) and by 49.2% (-49.2%) from Pre-Recession Highs

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18 августа, 00:36

No. 905: July Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Freight Index

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(SGS Subscription required) • For the Second Time, Industrial Production Has Regained Its Pre-Recession Peak of December 2007, Now Up by 0.14%, but Still Down 1.07% (-1.07%) from Its November 2014 Two-Month Recovery Peak • Once Again, the Production Recovery Reflected Tops in Oil and Gas Exploration and Extraction, Which Are Vulnerable to Low Oil Prices • In the Dominant but Still-Faltering Manufacturing Sector: A Record 115 Months of Continued Non-Expansion, with No End in Sight • July Manufacturing Was Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 6.04% (-6.04%) • Non-Recovered Freight Growth Slowed Anew • Headline July Retail Sales Surged but Were Not Credible • Recession Signal Continued from Low Annual Real Retail Sales Growth • Building Permits and Housing Starts Showed Deepening Contractions: Permits Fell by 2.8% (-2.8%) in First Quarter, by 11.0% (-11.0%) in Second Quarter; Starts Fell by 3.4% (-3.4%) in First Quarter, by 21.9% (-21.9%) in Second Quarter; Both Series Trended Lower in Third Quarter, Based on July Detail • Activity Held Shy of Regaining Pre-Recession Peaks by 46.0% (-46.0%) for Building Permits, 49.2% (-49.2%) for Housing Starts and 53.0% (-53.0%) for Single-Unit Starts, While Multi-Unit Starts Have Fallen Back Anew by 33.6% (-33.6%)

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14 августа, 00:51

No.904: Economic and Financial Market Review, July Consumer and Producer Price Indices

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(SGS Subscription required) • A L E R T • U.S. Dollar and Equity Markets Face High Risks in the Near Future, with Impact of Deteriorating Domestic-Economic Activity Exacerbated by Domestic- and Global-Political Circumstances • Residual Squirreling Instincts in Investors: 2017 Circumstances Are More Dangerous Than in 1987 • U.S. Dollar Has Turned Down Year-to-Year • Continued Headline Economic Slowing and Contraction Ahead • Physical Holdings of Gold and Silver Offer Store-of-Wealth Hedging, Liquidity, Safety • July CPI-U Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.11%, Pulled Annual CPI-U Inflation Higher to 1.73% (Was 1.63%), with CPI-W at 1.64% (Was 1.50%) and ShadowStats at 9.4% (Was 9.3%) • Softening Annual Consumer Inflation Appears to Have Troughed, Temporarily • July 2017 Annual Final-Demand PPI Slowed to 1.90% from 1.99% in June

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07 августа, 02:32

No. 903: Labor Conditions, Construction Spending, Trade Deficit, Money Supply M3

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(SGS Subscription required) • Unemployment Remained Well Shy of Common Experience; U.3 at 4.3% in 2017 Is Not the Same as the 4.3% Circumstance in 2001 • July 2017 Unemployment Rates Effectively Were Unchanged: U.3 Eased to 4.35% (4.3497% Rounds to 4.3%) from 4.36% (Rounds to 4.4%), U.6 Eased to 8.57% from 8.59%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Held at 22.1% • Annual Payroll Growth Notched Lower to 1.50%, a Level Common at the Onset of Recessions • Private Jobs Surveying Showed Renewed Collapse in July 2017 • Headline Annual Growth in Inflation-Adjusted, Real Take-Home Pay, Formally Per Capita Real Disposable Income, Revised Sharply Lower • Real Annual Growth in June 2017 Construction Spending Turned Negative in a Manner Last Seen During the Housing Collapse of 2006 • Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.1% (-23.1%), Real Construction Spending Has Shifted to Down-Trending from Low-Level Stagnation • Second-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened versus First-Quarter; Most-Recent Four Quarters of Real Deficit Were Worst Since 2007 • Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Rose to 3.2% in July from 3.1% in June

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29 июня, 20:28

No. 896: First-Quarter 2017 GDP, Third Estimate

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(SGS Subscription required) • Continued Nonsense in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Reporting • First-Quarter 2017 Nominal GDP Did Not Revise; Upside Revision in Real GDP Growth, from 1.15% to 1.42%, All Was in Reduced Inflation, Which Revised from 2.22% to 1.94% • Real First-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Growth, Theoretical Equivalent of the GDP, Revised Higher to 1.01%, but Still Was Down from Third-Quarter 2016 GDI by 0.19% (-0.19%) • Revised First-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP), Broader than the GDP, Revised Lower in Nominal Terms but was Boosted to Revised 1.07% Real Growth by the Reduced Inflation • Headline First-Quarter Details Still Indicative of a Stalling Economy • Better-Quality Series Show Continuing, Protracted Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs and No Economic Expansion

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26 июня, 19:47

No. 895: May 2017 New Orders for Durable Goods

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(SGS Subscription required) • May 2017 New Orders for Durable Goods Continued the General Pattern of Weaker-than-Expected Headline Economic Reporting • Despite Downside Revisions to April, May Orders Declined for the Second Month, Both Before and After Inflation and/or Commercial Aircraft Orders • As Consensus and the Fed Forecasts Shift Towards a Contracting U.S. Economy, Financial Markets Should Face Increasing Instabilities and Turmoil

24 июня, 00:18

No. 894: Economic- and Financial-System Conditions, May Household Income and Home Sales

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(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Economy Is Turning Down Anew, Threatening Banking-System Stability, Likely to Roil FOMC Policy, with Sharply-Negative Impact on the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Equities, Spiking Inflation and Prices of Gold and Silver • Major Market Turmoil Increasingly Likely in the Near Future • Headline Economic Data in the Month Ahead Could Signal a Day-of-Reckoning at Hand • Despite a Monthly Boost from Falling Gasoline Prices, May 2017 Real Median Household Income Was Statistically Unchanged • Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Rose in May, Yet Both Series Were on Track for Second-Quarter Contractions • May Existing-Homes Sales Down by 22.7% (-22.7%) and New-Home Sales Down by 56.1% (-56.1%) from Pre-Recession Peaks