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Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
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28 июля, 00:58

No. 901: June New Orders for Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales, Freight Index

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(SGS Subscription required) • Amidst a Faltering Economy, Political Discord Perils the Dollar and Intensifies Risk of Major Market Turmoil • Freight Index Continued in Low-Level Non-Expansion, Down 11.7% (-11.7%) from Its Pre-Recession Peak • June Gain in and May Upside Revisions to New Orders Reflected Surges in the Irregularly-Unstable Monthly Reporting of Commercial Aircraft Orders, Which Were Up by 131.2% in June and Revised Higher by 11.7% in May • 6.5% Gain in June New Orders Was Just 0.2%, Net of Commercial Aircraft • Net of Commercial Aircraft and Inflation, Orders Were Down 10.0% (-10.0%) from Their Pre-Recession Peak • Consumer Related: Motor Vehicle Orders and Shipments Declined in June • Decimated Second-Quarter 2017 Home Sales and Related Construction: Quarterly Contractions in New-Home Sales (-12.3%), Existing-Home Sales (-3.7%), Building Permits (-13.0%), Housing Starts (-21.9%), Single-Unit (-7.0%), Multiple-Unit (-47.3%) • Monthly Existing-Home Sales Declined in June, Small Gain in New-Home Sales Was Unchanged Net of Revisions • June Existing-Home Sales Were Down by 24.1% (-24.1%) and New-Home Sales Were Down by 56.1% (-56.1%) from Pre-Recession Peaks

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20 июля, 00:55

No. 900: June Housing Starts, Preview of GDP Benchmarking

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(SGS Subscription required) • GDP Benchmark Revisions Should Weaken Headline Activity in 2014 and 2015 • Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP Continues to Darken • Despite a Statistically-Insignificant Monthly Rebound in June Housing Starts, Activity Plunged at an Increasingly-Rapid Pace of Quarterly Downturn • Building Permits and Housing Starts Both Showed Deepening Quarterly Losses: Permits Fell by 2.8% (-2.8%) in First Quarter, by 13.0% (-13.0%) in Second Quarter; Starts Fell by 3.3% (-3.3%) in First Quarter, by 21.9% (-21.9%) in Second Quarter • Downtrending Activity Remained Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks by 46.5% (-46.5%) for Housing Starts and by 44.6% (-44.6%) for Building Permits

17 июля, 20:29

No. 899: June Industrial Production, Retail Sales, CPI and PPI

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(SGS Subscription required) • Weaker-Than-Expected Headline Reporting Continued, as Negative Revisions Plagued Headline Production and Retail Sales Data • Downside Implications for Both First- and Second-Quarter 2017 GDP • Above-or-At-Consensus Headline June Production and Manufacturing Gains Reflected No More than Heavy Downside Revisions to Prior Months • No End in Sight: Record 114 Months of Continued Non-Expansion in Manufacturing, With June Production and Manufacturing Still Down Respectively by 0.2% (-0.2%) and 6.1% (-6.1%) from Pre-Recession Highs • Retail Sales Contractions Continued, Despite Upside Growth Distortions from Inconsistent Seasonal-Adjustment Revisions; Net of the Gimmicks, the Headline June Sales Drop of 0.2% (-0.2%) Would Have Been 0.5% (-0.5%) • Recession Signal Intensified Sharply; Market Economic Sentiment Appears to Be Shifting to the Downside, as Reflected in a Softening Dollar • Consumer Liquidity Stresses Continue to Restrain Broad Economic Growth • Headline June CPI-U Inflation Unchanged at Down 0.02% (-0.02%), Pulled Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 1.63% (Was 1.87%), with CPI-W at 1.50% (Was 1.78%) and ShadowStats at 9.3% (Was 9.6%) • Softening Consumer Inflation Likely Hit a Trough in June • June 2017 Annual Final-Demand PPI Declined to 1.99% (Was 2.36%)

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08 июля, 00:49

No. 898: June Labor Conditions, Money Supply M3

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(SGS Subscription required) • June Payroll Gain Was on Top of Upside Revisions • Nonetheless, Unadjusted Annual Payroll Growth Held at Low Levels Common to Periods Preceding Economic Recession • Headline Unemployment Remained Well Short of Common Experience • June 2017 Unemployment: U.3 Rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, U.6 Rose to 8.6% from 8.4% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 22.1% from 22.0% • Watch Out for Reporting Surprises in Week Ahead • June Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Declined to 3.1% from 3.5% in May •

06 июля, 19:14

No. 897: Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Freight Index, Private Jobs Surveying

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(SGS Subscription required) • Second-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Remained on Track for Worst Showing Since Second-Quarter 2007 • June Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline, Albeit at a Narrowed Pace Still Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse • In Ongoing, Low-Level Stagnation, May Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 12.1% (-12.1%) • Construction Spending Benchmark Revisions Confirmed Likely Downside-Benchmark Revisions Pending for the GDP • Recent Patterns of Real Annual Growth in Construction Spending Revised from Uptrending to Sharply Downtrending, Consistent with a Recession • Real Construction Spending Remained 20.7% (-20.7%) Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation

Выбор редакции
29 июня, 20:28

No. 896: First-Quarter 2017 GDP, Third Estimate

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(SGS Subscription required) • Continued Nonsense in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Reporting • First-Quarter 2017 Nominal GDP Did Not Revise; Upside Revision in Real GDP Growth, from 1.15% to 1.42%, All Was in Reduced Inflation, Which Revised from 2.22% to 1.94% • Real First-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Growth, Theoretical Equivalent of the GDP, Revised Higher to 1.01%, but Still Was Down from Third-Quarter 2016 GDI by 0.19% (-0.19%) • Revised First-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP), Broader than the GDP, Revised Lower in Nominal Terms but was Boosted to Revised 1.07% Real Growth by the Reduced Inflation • Headline First-Quarter Details Still Indicative of a Stalling Economy • Better-Quality Series Show Continuing, Protracted Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs and No Economic Expansion

Выбор редакции
26 июня, 19:47

No. 895: May 2017 New Orders for Durable Goods

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(SGS Subscription required) • May 2017 New Orders for Durable Goods Continued the General Pattern of Weaker-than-Expected Headline Economic Reporting • Despite Downside Revisions to April, May Orders Declined for the Second Month, Both Before and After Inflation and/or Commercial Aircraft Orders • As Consensus and the Fed Forecasts Shift Towards a Contracting U.S. Economy, Financial Markets Should Face Increasing Instabilities and Turmoil

24 июня, 00:18

No. 894: Economic- and Financial-System Conditions, May Household Income and Home Sales

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(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Economy Is Turning Down Anew, Threatening Banking-System Stability, Likely to Roil FOMC Policy, with Sharply-Negative Impact on the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Equities, Spiking Inflation and Prices of Gold and Silver • Major Market Turmoil Increasingly Likely in the Near Future • Headline Economic Data in the Month Ahead Could Signal a Day-of-Reckoning at Hand • Despite a Monthly Boost from Falling Gasoline Prices, May 2017 Real Median Household Income Was Statistically Unchanged • Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Rose in May, Yet Both Series Were on Track for Second-Quarter Contractions • May Existing-Homes Sales Down by 22.7% (-22.7%) and New-Home Sales Down by 56.1% (-56.1%) from Pre-Recession Peaks

Выбор редакции
16 июня, 19:45

No. 893: May 2017 Housing Starts, Consumer Liquidity Update

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(SGS Subscription required) • May Housing Starts Plummeted on Top of Downside Revisions, Confounding Happy, Rebounding Consensus Expectations • Stagnant to Downtrending Activity Remained Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peaks by 52.0% (-52.0%) for Housing Starts and by 48.4% (-48.4%) for Building Permits • Consumer Liquidity Stresses Continue to Restrain Broad Economic Growth

16 июня, 01:08

No. 892: May Industrial Production, FOMC, U.S. Dollar and Gold

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(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Faces Deteriorating Economic Conditions and Renewed Solvency Stresses in the Banking System • June 14th Rate Hike Could Be the Last One for This Cycle • U.S. Dollar Near a Peak? Gold Price Near a Trough? • Headline Unchanged Production and Drop of 0.4% (-0.4%) in Manufacturing Were Boosted by Downside Revisions to March and April Activity • Still No Full Economic Recovery as of May 2017 Reporting, with Production and Manufacturing Down Respectively by Deepened, Net Contractions of 0.3% (-0.3%) and 6.1% (-6.1%) from Pre-Recession Highs • With No End in Sight, 113 Months of Continual Non-Expanding Manufacturing Is the Longest Period of Non-Recovery in the 99-Year History of U.S. Industrial Production, Topping the 96-Month Post-World War II Manufacturing Realignment and the 88-Month Slump in the First Down-Leg of the Great Depression

15 июня, 01:04

May Retail Sales, Earnings, Consumer and Producer Price Indices, FOMC

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(SGS Subscription required) • With Increasingly Adverse Economic Data, FOMC Hiked the Fed Funds Rate • May 2017 Nominal Retail Sales Fell by 0.3% (-0.3%), Despite a Gimmicked Monthly Sales Boost of 0.2% from Seasonal-Factor Distortions • Headline Real May Retail Sales Sank by 0.13% (-0.13%), Despite a CPI Contraction of 0.13% (-0.13%) • Recession Signal Intensified Sharply • First-Quarter Real Average Weekly Earnings Held in Annual Decline, Along with Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; Despite No Growth in May, Weak Inflation Boosted Second-Quarter Real Earnings Trend • Headline CPI-U Inflation Declined by 0.13% (-0.13%) in May 2017, Pulling Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 1.87% (Was 2.20%), with CPI-W at 1.78% (Was 2.14%) and ShadowStats at 9.6% (was 10.0%) • May 2017 Annual Final-Demand PPI at 2.36%, Minimally Backed Off a 62-Month High of 2.45% in April • Annual PPI Inflation Boosted by Poor-Quality Theoretical Constructs, Such as Declining Gasoline Prices Spiking Services Inflation

06 июня, 01:13

No. 890: May Employment, April Construction Spending and Trade Deficit Revisions

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(SGS Subscription required) • Trade-Deficit Benchmarking Showed Deeper Deficits 2014-to-Date, with Implications for Downside Benchmark Revisions to the GDP • Second-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Is on Track for Worst Showing Since Second-Quarter 2007 • In Uptrending, Low-Level Stagnation, April Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year, Holding Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peak by 12.6% (-12.6%) • May Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline, at a Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse • Monthly Payroll Gains Slowed on Top of Downside, Prior-Period Revisions • Slowing, Unadjusted Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Held at Low Levels Common to Periods Preceding Economic Recession • May 2017 Unemployment: U.3 Declined to 4.3% from 4.4%, U.6 Fell to 8.4% from 8.6% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Eased to 22.0% from 22.1% • Labor Numbers Out of Balance: April 2017 Headline Unemployment of 4.3%, Lowest Since March 2001, Coincided with Weakening, Near-Historic Lows in the Participation Rate (Labor Force/Population) and Employment-to-Population Ratio • In Contrast, March 2001 Headline Unemployment of 4.3% Coincided with Participation Rates and Employment-Population Ratios Just Off Historic Highs • Real Construction Spending Remained 21.3% (-21.3%) Short of Recovering its Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation • Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Rose to 3.6% in May, versus 3.4% in April