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Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
20 апреля, 01:00

No. 881 March Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Freight Index, Economic Review

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(SGS Subscription required) • Broad Outlook Continues for Economic Stagnation and an Intensifying Downturn • Unusual Weather Patterns Boosted March Utility Usage by a Record 8.6%; Otherwise, the 0.5% Production Gain Was a Contraction of 0.4% (-0.4%) • Dominant Manufacturing Sector Dropped by 0.4% (-0.4%) on Top of Downside Revisions to January and February (Automobile Manufacturing Fell) • Mining Sector Rose by 0.1%, Reflecting Soaring Gold Mining and Oil Production, Largely Offset by Plunging Coal Mining • Still No Economic Expansion: Activity Held Below Pre-Recession Peaks, with Production Down by 1.2% (-1.2%), Manufacturing Down by 6.4% (-6.4%) and Housing Starts Down by 46.5% (-46.5%) • Residential Construction Continued in Low-Level, Non-Recovering Stagnation • Freight Index Continued in Low-Level, Non-Recovering Stagnation

15 апреля, 23:15

No. 880 : March CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Real Earnings, Consumer Update

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• Substantially Adverse Economic Circumstances Have Begun to Unfold, Threatening FOMC Hopes for Normalizing Monetary Policy • Amidst Mounting Income and Credit Stresses on Consumers, Headline Retail Sales Suffered Major, Near-Term Downside Revisions; Recent Auto Sales Were Not As Strong as Advertised • First-Quarter Real Average Weekly Earnings Declined Year-to-Year, Along with Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions, Circumstances Not Seen Since the Stalled GDP of Second-Half 2012 • Real Growth in Consumer Credit Outstanding Has Faltered in a Manner Also Not Seen Since the Stalled GDP of Second-Half 2012 • Headline CPI-U Inflation Fell by 0.29% (-0.29%) in March, Pushing Annual CPI-U Inflation Lower to 2.38% (Was 2.74%), with CPI-W at 2.35% (Was 2.82%) and ShadowStats at 10.1% (was 10.5%) • March Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation Hit a 60-Month High of 2.28%

08 апреля, 01:51

No. 879: March Employment and Unemployment, Help-Wanted Advertising, Money Supply M3

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(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC-Rattling 'Substantially Adverse Economic Circumstances' Loom • March 2017 Real-World Employment Prospects Continued to Plunge at an Annual Pace of Decline Not Seen Since the Depths of the Economic Collapse • Soft Payroll Jobs Gain of 98,000 in March Was Not Statistically Significant • Declining Monthly Unemployment Rates Simply Were Not Comparable • That Said, March Unemployment: U.3 Declined to 4.5% from 4.7%, U.6 Fell to 8.9% from 9.2% and ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 22.5% from 22.7% • Those Were the Lowest, Headline Unemployment Rates for U.3 since May 2007, for U.6 since December 2008 and for ShadowStats since April 2012 • Nominal Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Sank to a 57-Month Low in March, Real Growth Declined to a Level Not Seen Since Depths of the Economic Collapse

04 апреля, 19:51

No. 878: February Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Updated Consumer Liquidity

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(SGS Subscription required) • Sharp Narrowing in February 2017 Trade Deficit Reflected Plunging Imports of Consumer Goods, Such as Autos and Cell Phones • Declining Consumer Demand and/or a One-Time Reporting Aberration? • First-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise-Trade Is on Track for Worst Deficit Since Third-Quarter 2007 • Despite a Nominal 0.8% Monthly Gain in February Construction Spending, Inflation-Adjusted Activity Remained in Stagnant Non-Recovery, Headed for First-Quarter 2017 Quarterly and Annual Contractions • Consumers Face Continuing Income and Credit Stresses, Amidst Mixed Optimism

02 апреля, 20:50

No. 877: Industrial Production Benchmark Revision

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(SGS Subscription required) • Industrial Production Just Took a Hit with Its Benchmark Revisions, Given Higher-Quality, Weaker Historical Data from 2015 • Double-Dip Recession in Production Now Steeper than Previously Indicated • Two or More Consecutive Quarters of Annual Decline in Production Are Unprecedented Outside of Formally-Recognized Recessions; There Were Five, Now There Are Seven Consecutive Quarters in Place • Gold and Silver Mining Activity Revised Sharply Higher • Negative Indications for Pending Benchmark Revisions to Retail Sales, Durable Goods Orders and the GDP • Broad Outlook Continues for Non-Recovering Economic Activity • Issues Foreshadow FOMC Problems, a Weaker Dollar and Stronger Gold

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31 марта, 00:36

No. 876: GDP Revision and the Business Cycle, February Household Income

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(SGS Subscription required) • Details of Economic Depression versus Recession, Recovery and Expansion • No Other Major Economic Series Comes Within Three Years of the Headline Brevity of the GDP Collapse into 2009 and Recovery into 2011, or Comes Close to Matching the Subsequent 12.2% GDP Expansion • Better-Quality Series Show Continued, Protracted Economic Collapse, with No Recovery of Pre-Recession Highs and No Economic Expansion • Annualized Fourth-Quarter Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product Revised to 2.08% from 1.86% • Fourth-Quarter Final Sales Growth (GDP net of Inventory Change) Fell to 1.07% versus 3.02% in Third-Quarter 2016 • Initial Reporting of Fourth-Quarter Gross Domestic Income at 1.00%, Gross National Product at 2.88% • 2016 Annual GDP Growth Still Was Weakest Since the Economic Collapse, Both Before and After Inflation Adjustment • Broad Outlook Continues for Non-Recovering Activity and Economic Disruption • February Real Median Household Income Increased, Still Holding Below its Pre-Recession High and Signaling Consumer Liquidity Stresses

25 марта, 01:13

No. 875: Durable Goods, New- and Existing-Home Sales, Freight Index, Business Cycle

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(SGS Subscription required) • Details of Economic Depression versus Recession, Recovery and Expansion • Amidst Signals of Renewed Downturn, the Broad Business Outlook Continues for Non-Recovering Activity and Economic Disruption • Net of Inflation and Irregularly-Surging Commercial Aircraft Orders, the Headline Gain of 1.7% in February Durable Goods Orders Was a Monthly Contraction of 0.3% (-0.3%) • Freight Index Annual Growth Moved Higher for Third Straight Month, Still Holding in a Pattern of Low-Level Stagnation • Suggestive of Continuing Financial-System Liquidity Stresses, Rising Portions of Existing-Home Sales Were in Foreclosure and/or Were All Cash Sales • Mixed Monthly Activity in February New- and Existing-Home Sales Continued in the Context of Low-Level Non-Recovery

18 марта, 01:12

No. 874: February Industrial Production, Updated Economic Review

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(SGS Subscription required) • Industrial Production May Be Bottoming, Yet, There Are New Signals of Intensifying Economic Risk • Production Was Flat in February, Minimally Positive Year-to-Year, with Gains in Manufacturing and Mining Offset by Weather-Distorted Utilities • No Economic Expansion: Activity Held Below Pre-2007 Recession Peaks, with Production Down by 0.94% (-0.94%), Manufacturing Down by 4.97% (-4.97%) • Major Downside Revisions to Production Activity of Recent Years Likely Loom with the March 31st Annual Benchmarking Going Back to 1972 • General Outlook Remains in Place for Continuing Near-Term Economic Stagnation and Renewed Downturn

17 марта, 00:48

No. 873: February New Residential Construction, FOMC Policy

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(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Focus Remains Banking-System Solvency; Economic Activity and Inflation Are Secondary Concerns, Other than for Banking-System Impact • Dollar Selling and Gold Buying Suggest Markets Are Sensing Trouble • Housing Starts Hit a Post-World War II Low in 2009; Yet, February 2017 Activity Still Has Not Recovered the Pre-Recession Peak Level of Any Post-World War II Downturn • February Housing Starts Six-Month Moving Average Hit Its Highest Level Since the 2009 Economic Trough, Activity Last Seen in 1995, but It Still Is 44% (-44%) Shy of the Pre-2007 Recession Peak Level • Headline Monthly February Housing Starts and Building Permits Held in Non-Recovering, Low-Level Stagnation, Down Respectively by 43% (-43%) and 46% (-46%) from Their Pre-Recession Highs

16 марта, 00:44

No. 872: February PPI, CPI, Retail Sales and Earnings and the FOMC

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(SGS Subscription required) • FOMC Fiddles with Boosting Interest Rates, While Annual Real M3 Growth Just Plunged to a New Signal for a Major Economic Downturn • Annual Contraction in First-Quarter Real Earnings Is a Virtual Certainty; Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions Also Are in Play; Circumstances Not Seen Since the Stalled GDP of Second-Half 2012 • February Nominal Retail Sales Gain of 0.08% Was Less than Inflation; Inflation-Adjusted Real Sales Declined by 0.04% (-0.04%) for the Month • Headline Annual Inflation Surge Has Been Due to Energy-Price Distortions, Not to an Overheating Economy • February 2017 Monthly CPI Inflation Rose by 0.12%, Pushing Annual CPI-U Inflation to a 60-Month High of 2.74%, with CPI-W at 2.82% and ShadowStats at 10.5% • February Final-Demand PPI Annual Inflation Hit a 59-Month High of 2.19%

11 марта, 01:00

No. 871: February Labor Conditions, Help Wanted Online, Money Supply M3, Consumer Liquidity

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(SGS Subscription required) • Real World Employment Prospects Deteriorated in February 2017, Plunging at an Annual Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the Economic Collapse into 2009 • Nonetheless, FOMC Hawks Got Their Strong Headline Jobs Report • Headline Employment and Unemployment Remained Nonsensical and Generally Not Comparable Month-to-Month or Otherwise • Payroll Employment, Which Gained 235,000 Jobs in February, Counts Each Part-Time Job as an Employed Individual • Household Survey Employment Counts Each Individual Only Once; Multiple Job Holders Gained 260,000 in February • February Unemployment Rates Dropped: U.3 Declined to 4.7% from 4.8%, U.6 Fell to 9.2% from 9.4%, ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 22.7% from 22.9% • February Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Sank to a 55-Month Low, Closing in on a Formal Recession Signal

07 марта, 19:46

No. 870: January Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Household Income, Pending FOMC

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(SGS Subscription required) • Beware the Ides of March! • FOMC Targeting Growth-Killing Rate Hikes in an Economy that Is Foundering, Not Overheating? • January Real Median Household Income Continued to Falter, Down Year-to-Year for the Second Straight Month • First-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise-Trade Deficit Is on Track for Worst Showing Since First-Quarter 2007, An Early Negative for the GDP • If the Current Trend in Trade Is Not Altered, Third-Quarter 2017 Real Deficit Would Be Worst Ever • Real Construction Spending Remained in Stagnant Non-Recovery, Down for the Month and Year, Amidst Upside Revisions and Rising Inflation, Still Shy of Its Pre-Recession High by 22% (-22%)