Источник
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting
Выбор редакции
31 октября, 01:42

No. 918-B :First Estimate of Third-Quarter 2017 GDP, Economic and Financial Outlook

  • 0

(SGS Subscription required) • Watch For Unexpected Headline Economic Weakness as Artificially Strong Numbers Reverse, with Hurricane Boosts Beginning to Unwind • Natural-Disaster-Scrambled Data Suggest Looming, Major Revisions A New Fed Chairman Will Face the Same Banking-System and Economic Challenges that Befuddled the Yellen/Bernanke Chairmanships • First Estimate of Third-Quarter 2017 GDP Growth Was 2.99% Versus 3.06% in Second-Quarter, 1.24% in First-Quarter • Third-Quarter 2017 Final Sales Growth (GDP Net of Inventories) Was 2.26% Versus 2.94% in Second-Quarter, 2.70% in First-Quarter • Headline GDP Details Did Not Make Sense in Terms of Underlying Series • Better-Quality Economic Measures Continue to Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion, with Stagnant Real-World Activity Increasingly Indicating a Renewed, Deepening Downturn

Выбор редакции
27 октября, 23:28

No. 918-A: First Estimate of Third-Quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

  • 0

(SGS Subscription required) • First Estimate of Third-Quarter 2017 GDP Growth Was 2.99% Versus 3.06% in Second-Quarter, 1.24% in First-Quarter • Third-Quarter 2017 Final Sales Growth (GDP Net of Inventories) Was 2.26% Versus 2.94% in Second-Quarter, 2.70% in First-Quarter • No GDP Hurricane-Impact Was Discussed by the Issuing Bureau of Economic Analysis • Headline Details Do Not Make Sense in Terms of Underlying Series • Natural-Disaster-Scrambled Data Suggest Major Revisions Loom for Recent Headline Data, Ranging from Retail Sales to the GDP • Better-Quality Economic Measures Continue to Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion, with Stagnant Real-World Activity Increasingly Indicating a Renewed, Deepening Downturn

27 октября, 01:08

No. 917: September 2017 Production, Durable Goods Orders, New Construction and Home Sales

  • 0

(SGS Subscription required) • Already Weakened versus Nonsense, Headline Second-Quarter Strength, Relative Third-Quarter GDP Growth Likely Was Softened Further by Disaster Damages, with Less-Than-Offsetting Gains from Early-Recovery Activity • Natural-Disaster Effects Hit Third-Quarter Production, Boosted Orders and Softened Housing Starts with Mixed Impact on Home Sales • Pre-Hurricane Headline Production Data Weakened Meaningfully in Revisions; Pre-Existing, Broadly-Negative, Underlying Economic Trends Have Not Changed; General Outlook Remains One of Non-Recovered Business Activity in Renewed Downturn • In the Dominant but Still-Faltering Manufacturing Sector of Production: A Record 117 Months of Continued Non-Expansion, with No End in Sight September Industrial Production and Manufacturing, Respectively, Were Down by 0.7% (-0.7%) and by 6.3%(-6.3%) from Their Pre-Recession Peaks • Real Durable Goods Orders Still Down 10.3% (-10.3%) from Recovering Pre-Recession Peak • September Housing Starts Took a Small Hit from the Tempests, But No More than Seen Within in Regular Monthly Volatility for the Series • Increasingly-Negative Trends in Smoothed Home Sales and Construction Activity Show Low-Level, Non-Recovered, Faltering Stagnation • Still Shy of Recovering Their Pre-Recession Peaks: Housing Starts Down by 50.4% (-50.4%), Building Permits Down by 46.3% (-46.3%), New Home Sales Down by 52.0% (-52.0%), Existing-Home Sales Down by 25.9% (-25.9%)

20 октября, 23:52

No. 916: September 2017 Retail Sales, Consumer and Producer Price Indices

  • 0

(SGS Subscription required) • Hurricane-Related Boost to September Production Followed Sharp-Downside Revisions to Activity in the Months before the Hurricanes • September Housing Starts Took a Small Hit from the Tempests, But No More than the Regular Series Volatility in a Given Month • Storm Disruptions Boosted September Retail Sales and Inflation, yet Long-Range, Non-Recovering and Downtrending Economic Trends Remained in Play • Disaster-Spiked Economic Activity Usually Favors a Fed Easing, Not a Tightening • With Mixed Disaster Elements, September Retail Sales Jumped as Expected, Due Particularly to Replacement of Storm-Damaged Automobiles • Hurricane-Spiked Oil/Gasoline Prices Drove September 2017 CPI and PPI Higher • September CPI-U Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.55% Pulled Annual CPI-U Inflation Higher to 2.23% (Was 1.94%), with CPI-W at 2.31% (Was 1.93%) and ShadowStats at 10.0% (Was 9.7%) • Fed's Targeted "Core" CPI-U Inflation Held at 1.7% for Fifth Month • September Final-Demand PPI Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.44% Pulled Annual Gain to a 67-Month High of 2.62%, from 2.35% in August • Real Average Weekly Earnings Declined in September and Minimally in Third-Quarter 2017 • Early-October Consumer Sentiment Highest Since 2004, Still Shy of its 2000 High by 9.7% (-9.7%) • Consumers Accepting Limits on "Improving Prospects for Living Standards" Was Responsible for the Jump in Optimism?

Выбор редакции
06 октября, 23:50

No. 915: September 2017 Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3

  • 0

(SGS Subscription required) • Headline Labor Detail Showed Major Disruptions from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, With Mixed-Surveying Definitions Exaggerating or Masking Impact • Nonsense Data: If One Seasonally Adjusts Scrambled Numbers, the Adjusted Numbers Still Are Scrambled • Hurricane-Impacted September 2017 Unemployment Rates Declined: U.3 Fell to 4.22% versus 4.44%, U.6 Fell to 8.29% versus 8.59%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Fell to 21.9% versus 22.2% • September Household Survey Employment Jumped by 906,000, Including 1,500,000 Counted as Employed, Otherwise Unemployed by the Weather • September Payroll Survey Employment Declined by 33,000 (-33,000), Down by 71,000 (-71,000) Net of Pre-Hurricane Downside Revisions • Annual Growth in September Money Supply M3 and the Monetary Base Jumped Sharply

05 октября, 21:03

No. 914: August Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, September Private Labor Surveying

  • 0

(SGS Subscription required) • U.S. Economy Remains in Serious Trouble: Non-Recovered, Non-Expanding and Turning Down Anew, Separate from Near-Term, Temporary Weather Impact • Private Surveying of September Labor Conditions Signaled Continued Downturn • Headline Real Merchandise Trade Deficits in July and August Were Worse than Suggested by the Advance Estimate of the August Goods Trade Deficit • Most-Recent Four Quarters of Real Trade Deficit through Second-Quarter Remained Worst Since 2007, with the Trend Intensifying in Third-Quarter 2017 • Annual Decline in August 2017 Real Construction Spending Continued in a Manner Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse • Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.0% (-23.0%), Real Construction Spending Continued in Intensifying Downtrend • Storm-Related Impact on Economic Data Will Break in the Week Ahead

Выбор редакции
28 сентября, 23:09

No. 913: Second-Quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Third Estimate

  • 0

(SGS Subscription required) • Unusual Labor Statistics Ahead? • Second-Quarter 2017 GDP Growth Revised to 3.06% (Previously 3.03%), Versus 1.24% in First-Quarter • Second-Quarter Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Revised to 2.89% (Previously 2.88%), Versus 2.68% in First-Quarter • Second-Quarter Gross National Product (GNP) Revised to 2.77% (Previously 2.80%), Versus 0.94% in First-Quarter • Better-Quality Measures than the Upwardly-Biased GDP Series Show No Full Recovery from the Collapse into 2009 and No Economic Expansion, with Stagnant Real-World Activity Turning Increasingly to Renewed, Deepening Downturn

28 сентября, 03:47

No. 912: New Orders for Durable Goods, Home Sales, Hurricane Economic Disruptions

  • 0

(SGS Subscription required) • Mixed Hurricane Impact on Economic Reporting Likely Will Be of Substance in the Next Several Months, Beginning with September 2017 Detail • Other than for August Industrial Production, Impact Has Been Negligible, So Far • Underlying Negative Economic Trends Should Not Be Altered Meaningfully • Net of Inflation and Gyrating Commercial-Aircraft Orders, Durable Goods Orders Were Down by 9.2% (-9.2%) from Their Non-Recovered, Pre-Recession Peak • In Deepening Quarterly Contractions, August New- and Existing-Home Sales Were Down Respectively by 59.7% (-59.7%) and 26.4% (-26.4%) from Pre-Recession Peaks • Six-Month-Smoothed Trends in Home Sales Have Turned Increasingly Negative, Showing Low-Level, Non-Recovered, Faltering Stagnation

Выбор редакции
20 сентября, 01:02

No. 911: August 2017 Housing Starts and Building Permits, Freight Index

  • 0

(SGS Subscription required) • Still Shy by 11.4% (-11.4%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak, August 2017 Freight Activity Notched Higher Year-to-Year • August 2017 New Residential Construction Continued in Downtrend • Activity Held Shy of Regaining Pre-Recession Highs by 42.6% (-42.6%) for Building Permits, 48.1% (-48.1%) for Housing Starts and 53.3% (-53.3%) for Single-Unit Starts, While Multi-Unit Starts Have Fallen Back Anew by 26.9% (-26.9%) • Nonsense-Volatility in the August Housing Starts Series: Monthly Declines in Total and Multiple-Unit Starts and a Gain in Single-Unit Starts All Were Artefacts of Much Larger, Opposite Revisions to July 2017 Activity • New Residential Construction Should Receive Some Boost in the Months Ahead from Hurricane Destruction and Damage

16 сентября, 01:47

No. 910: August 2017 Retail Sales and Industrial Production

  • 0

(SGS Subscription required) • Net of Hurricane Harvey Effects, Headline Economic Numbers Still Were Miserable, Suggestive of Recession • Hurricane Impact on August Activity: Mixed, Probably Net-Neutral for Retail Sales; Accounted for 0.75% (-0.75%) of the 0.90% (-0.90%) Drop in Monthly Production • August Real Retail Sales Declined by 0.61% (-0.61%) in the Month, Plunged by 1.24% (-1.24%) Net of Downside, Prior-Period Revisions • Third-Quarter Real Retail Sales Are Contracting at an Early (Two-Month) Annualized Pace of 0.4% (-0.4%) • Ex-Hurricane, August Industrial Production Declined by 0.15% (-0.15%) • In the Dominant but Still-Faltering Manufacturing Sector of Production: A Record 116 Months of Continued Non-Expansion, with No End in Sight

15 сентября, 01:06

No. 909: CPI and PPI, Real Median Household Income, Market and Economic Outlook

  • 0

(SGS Subscription required) • Trouble in Hand and Looming • Consistently Surveyed, Reported and as Deflated by the Headline CPI-U, 2016 Median Household Income Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession 2007 Peak, Below Levels of the Late-1990s and Minimally Higher than Levels of the Mid-1970s • 2016 Income Variance and Dispersion Increased, Holding Near Record Highs, Signaling Severe Financial-Market and Economic Stresses in Place • Real Average Weekly Earnings Declined in August • Hurricane Harvey May Have Had Minimal Impact on Inflation Data Gathering, but It Certainly Added Upside Pressure on Petroleum-Related Market Prices • August CPI-U Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.40% Pulled Annual CPI-U Inflation Higher to 1.94% (Was 1.73%), with CPI-W at 1.93% (Was 1.64%) and ShadowStats at 9.7% (Was 9.4%) August 2017 Annual Final-Demand PPI Rose to 2.35% from 1.90% in July • Faltering Economic Activity and Intensifying Political Discord Continue to Peril the Dollar and Intensify Risks in Markets Vulnerable to Turmoil

Выбор редакции
06 сентября, 23:50

No. 908-B: August Labor Detail and Payroll Benchmarking, July Trade Deficit and Construction

  • 0

(SGS Subscription required) • Benchmark Revision Added 95,000 Jobs to March 2017 Payrolls • Amidst Narrowed Revisions, July 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened; Most-Recent Four Quarters of Real Deficit to Second-Quarter 2017 Were Worst Since 2007; With That Trend Continuing into Early Third-Quarter • August 2017 Unemployment Rates Notched Higher: U.3 Rose to 4.44% versus 4.35%, U.6 Rose to 8.59% versus 8.57%, and the ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 22.2% versus 22.1% • August Household Survey Employment Declined by 74,000 (-74,000); Full-Time Jobs Dropped by 166,000 (-166,000) • Weaker-Than-Expected August Payroll Jobs Gain of 156,000 was Just 115,000 Net of the July Revisions, Within Range of Statistical Insignificance • August Payroll and Full-Time Employment Annual Growth Rates Dropped to 1.45% and 1.16%, Levels Common at the Onset of Recessions • Deepening Real Annual Decline in July 2017 Construction Spending Continued in a Manner Last Seen During the 2006 Housing Collapse, Despite Upside Revisions to May and June Activity • Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 23.1% (-23.1%), Real Construction Spending Continued in Intensifying Downtrend • Faltering Economic Activity and Intensifying Political Discord Increasingly Peril the Dollar and Intensify Risks of Market Turmoil