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08 августа 2011, 19:30

Economists Cast Opinions During Fishing Trip

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> 20110808_me_10 > Source: Economists Cast Opinions On S&P During Fishing Trip Chris Arnold NPR, August 8, 2011 http://app1.kuhf.org/articles/npr1312809525-Economists-Cast-Opinions-On-SandP-During-Fishing-Trip.html

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08 августа 2011, 18:30

Sovereign Ratings: AAA Edition

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For those who are (inexplicably) shaken by S&P’s downgrade of the United States last week, and who only want to own debt of sovereigns with AAA ratings, here you go: And don’t feel bad if Guernsey sends you to the CIA Factbook…it sent me there, too. In finishing this up, I’ll note that the 10-yr [...]

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08 августа 2011, 16:30

Change We Can Believe In

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“All the signs are right this time You don’t have to try so very hard If you live in this world You’re feeling the change of the guard” 1 - Steely Dan Since we hung up our bond trading shoes in 2006 we have invested with a deeply contrarian macroeconomic view: irreconcilable debt would force [...]

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08 августа 2011, 16:00

Monday AM Reads (DownGraded for your protection!)

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Some interesting reading to start off your week: • Police raid Milan offices of Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s (Guardian) • S&P Seen Surrendering to Tea Party Costing U.S. Taxpayer (Bloomberg) see also S&P Goes Tea Party (The Daily Beast) • Speaking Of “Credibility”, Here Is The CBO’s 2001 Forecast Which Predicted Negative $2.5 Trillion [...]

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08 августа 2011, 15:30

Warning: Flying into NY

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Just an FYI — I am flying into LaGuardia today from Bangor, Maine. Those of you who are regular readers of TBP know that volatility will be the watchword of the day. We had some fishermen/economists betting on the markets over the weekend, and I did not participate. The line was over/under 300 Dow points [...]

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08 августа 2011, 15:13

At least right now, its still all about growth

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Putting aside the embarrassment and humiliation of losing our AAA credit rating for the first time ever, it has been and will always be the case that the market will be the final arbiter of the credit worthiness of the US. With yields down today and the US$ mixed against a variety of currencies, it’s [...]

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08 августа 2011, 14:18

War on Knowledge

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War on Knowledge

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08 августа 2011, 14:00

Downgrading USA: S&P Bites the Hand That Feeds It

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Dan Alpert is a founding Managing Partner of Westwood Capital. He has more than 30 years of international merchant banking and investment banking experience, including a wide variety of work-out and bankruptcy related restructuring experience. Dan’s experience in providing financial advisory services and structured finance execution has extended Westwood’s reach beyond the U.S. domestic corporate [...]

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08 августа 2011, 09:00

S&P Downgrade of US Creditworthiness: Some Initial Thoughts

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S&P Downgrade of US Creditworthiness: Some Initial Thoughts August 7, 2011 Don Rissmiller, Strategas – Weekly Economics Summary 7 August 2011 ~~~ S&P’s logic: “On Aug. 5, 2011, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’. The outlook on the long-term rating [...]

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08 августа 2011, 02:44

S&P Downgrade

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Takeaway: We believe the downgrade of US Treasury obligations is legitimate and, in one very relevant way, insufficient. First, the nominal creditworthiness of Treasury obligations is solely a function of controlling the printing press. Congress ultimately retains the legal right to print the nation’s money. It may even decide unilaterally to maintain the US dollar [...]

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07 августа 2011, 23:00

Mapping The Arab World

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Nice interactive graphic from Economist: Click into interactive map for more information Source: The Economist

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07 августа 2011, 21:00

NYT: Neurofinance, Investors & Lack of Reason

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Interesting Neurological discussion of investor foibles: “It’s a heretical thought on Wall Street, where most people insist that logic prevails. The economic theory of rational expectations has enshrined the principle that people make judicious economic choices and learn from their mistakes. As a result, our collective expectations about the financial future — from the price [...]