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Investing, Asset Allocation, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line
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24 ноября, 16:39

Tech-Stock Momentum Accelerates

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Technology shares have surged recently, leaving the rest of US equity sectors in the dust, based on a set of ETFs. Sector leadership appeared to be shifting to tech from financials at the end of last month. Nearly four weeks later, the transition is complete and there’s no doubt which sector dominates the upside momentum […]

24 ноября, 15:07

Macro Briefing: 24 November 2017

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Next week will be crucial for GOP’s tax plan: Bloomberg Zimbabwe’s first new President in 37 years takes power: BBC German business optimism rises to record on economic growth: Bloomberg US Consumer Sentiment Index edges up in Nov, close to decade high: CNBC US durable goods orders slide 1.2% in October: USA Today Jobless claims […]

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23 ноября, 15:26

Happy Thanksgiving!

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22 ноября, 15:01

5 Questions For Bob Dieli, NoSpinForecast.com

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The Treasury yield curve continues to flatten, which is widely viewed as a warning sign for the economy. The 10-year/2-year spread fell to 59 basis points on Tuesday (Nov. 21), the lowest in a decade. But the US economic profile looks solid. The mixed messages have more than a few analysts and investors scratching their […]

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22 ноября, 13:21

Macro Briefing: 22 November 2017

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FCC releases plan to repeal regs that ensure equal access to internet: NY Times Fed is concerned that US labor market may be overheating: Bloomberg Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index rises sharply in Oct: Chicago Fed US existing home sales up 2% in Oct: Reuters Optimism continues to lift world equity markets: Reuters Vanguard projects […]

21 ноября, 14:40

US Business Cycle Risk Report | 21 November 2017

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US economic activity continues to trend solidly positive in the latest roundup of numbers. In turn, recession risk remains virtually nil, based on the available data through October. The near-term outlook looks upbeat, too, suggesting that the recent strength in GDP growth will continue in the fourth quarter. Using preliminary numbers published to date paints […]

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21 ноября, 13:32

Macro Briefing: 21 November 2017

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Justice Dept files lawsuit to block AT&T/Time-Warner merger: Bloomberg Trump administration ends residency status for 59,000 Haitians: NY Times Trump promises “huge tax cut for Christmas”: AP US Leading Economic Index rose more than expected in October: CNBC Fed Chair Yellen will leave board when successor is sworn in: Reuters 2-Year Treasury yield rises to […]

20 ноября, 14:16

Foreign Bonds Bounced Back Last Week

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Fixed-income markets in developed and emerging nations topped the winners list last week for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. The gains mark the second week of flat to higher prices after two months of a downtrend for offshore bonds. The SPDR Bloomberg Barclays International Treasury Bond (BWX) was the […]

20 ноября, 13:27

Macro Briefing: 20 November 2017

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Efforts to form a new government in Germany collapse: BBC Zimbabwe’s Mugabe refuses to step down: Reuters GOP bets on trickle-down economics in tax plan: USA Today Japan’s export growth points to continued Q4 economic expansion: Reuters US housing starts surged in Oct, near post-recession high: MarketWatch Kansas City Mfg Index slides in Nov but […]

18 ноября, 14:46

Book Bits | 18 November 2017

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● Who Can You Trust?: How Technology Brought Us Together and Why It Might Drive Us Apart By Rachel Botsman Review via Kirkus Reviews At a time when trust in institutions—Congress, the church, the media, etc.—is in great jeopardy, another form of trust is quickly becoming the glue that keeps society together. It is called […]

17 ноября, 15:36

10-Year/2-Year Treasury Spread Falls To Post-Recession Low

The debate about the value of the Treasury spread for business-cycle analysis is set to intensify in the wake of the latest slide in the difference between the 10-year and 2-year rates. Although the US economic trend remains healthy, the ongoing decline in the yield spread implies trouble ahead, based on this indicator’s historical record. […]

17 ноября, 13:18

Macro Briefing: 17 November 2017

House passes tax bill–focus now turns to Senate: Reuters World’s largest sovereign wealth fund considers selling oil stocks: Bloomberg US industrial output surges in Oct after hurricane disruptions fade: Reuters US jobless claims rise to 6-week high: Bloomberg Confidence among US home builders rises to 7-month high in Nov: Housing Wire Philly Fed manufacturing index […]