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Investing, Asset Allocation, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line
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19 января, 16:00

Book Bits | 19 January 2019

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● The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power By Shoshana Zuboff Review via Los Angeles Review of Books Silicon Valley’s Phoenix-like resurrection is a story of ingenuity and initiative. It is also a story of callousness, predation, and deceit. Harvard Business School professor emerita Shoshana […]

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18 января, 15:27

US Business Cycle Risk Report | 18 January 2019

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The odds are still low that a new US recession has started, but economic momentum continues to slow. The headwinds remain moderate so far, but the potential for trouble later in the year is rising, in part due to the partial government shutdown. US economic activity was already decelerating before the political stalemate began late […]

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18 января, 13:41

Macro Briefing: 18 January 2019

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Trump blocks Pelosi’s overseas trip, citing gov’t shutdown: WSJ Trump-Pelosi feud dims prospects for quick end to gov’t shutdown: Bloomberg Key dates to watch for monitoring partial gov’t shutdown: CNBC N. Korea and US planning to discuss possibility of 2nd Trump-Kim summit: Reuters Signs of progress on US-China trade dispute support global stock markets: Reuters […]

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17 января, 15:10

Will Shutdown Risk End This Year’s Equity Sector Rallies?

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The partial government shutdown could be a slow-moving train wreck for the US economy, but for the moment the crowd’s inclined to reprice the major equity sectors higher in the new year following 2018’s haircut. With the exception of utilities, year-to-date returns are positive across the board through yesterday’s close (Jan. 16), based on a […]

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17 января, 13:35

Macro Briefing: 17 January 2019

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Pelosi urges Trump to delay State of the Union address: WSJ UK’s May survives no-confidence vote: BBC Jack Bogle, who launched index fund revolution, dies at age 89: CNBC ISIS attack on US forces in Syria refocuses attention on US withdrawal: CNBC US economy is ‘flying blind’ due to partial gov’t shutdown: Brookings Half of […]

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16 января, 15:22

The Shutdown Begins To Weigh On The Economic Outlook

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Will the US government’s stalemate over budget negotiations trigger a recession? In “normal” times this question would be dismissed as absurd. But the times they are a changin’. The good news is that the latest numbers still indicate that the US macro trend remains positive. As The Capital Spectator reported yesterday, for example, a set […]

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16 января, 13:28

Macro Briefing: 16 January 2019

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UK’s May faces confidence vote after crushing Brexit defeat: BBC Economic headwinds increasing for US as gov’t shutdown drags on: NY Times China injects record amount of money into economy to support growth: CNBC Death from opiods more likely than dying in car crash in US: USA Today Antarctica losing ice at an increasingly rapid […]

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15 января, 14:58

US GDP Growth Remains Set For Moderate Slowdown in Q4

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Economic output is still on track to decelerate to a moderately slower pace in the government’s fourth-quarter report on gross domestic product (GDP) due later this month, based on based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. Today’s update reflects a slightly firmer gain vs. the previous estimate […]

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15 января, 13:40

Macro Briefing: 15 January 2019

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Polls suggest Trump is losing public support for gov’t shutdown: Fox Officials preparing for nightmare scenarios if shutdown continues: Bloomberg Goldman Sachs: US growth will slow but avoid recession in 2019: CNBC Prime Minister May faces crushing defeat on Brexit vote: Bloomberg German economic growth slowed to 5-year low in 2018: BBC China set for […]

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14 января, 15:13

US Real Estate Investment Trusts Topped Last Week’s Gains

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Securitized real estate shares in the US led markets for the broad-based gains in the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products. Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ), which targets US-listed real estate investment trusts (REITs), surged 4.6% for the trading week through Friday, Jan. 11. The gain marks the biggest weekly […]

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14 января, 13:55

Macro Briefing: 14 January 2019

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Republican Senator Graham: Trump shoud support re-opening gov’t: Reuters China’s exports in December fell the most in 2 years: Reuters China’s trade surplus with US expands to record high: CNBC Eurozone industrial output fell sharply in Nov–biggest slide since 2016: Reuters UK Prime Minister May set for last-ditch effort in support of Brexit deal: BBC […]

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12 января, 16:07

Book Bits | 12 January 2019

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● Broken Bargain: Bankers, Bailouts, and the Struggle to Tame Wall Street By Kathleen Day Review via Kirkus Review Following the financial meltdown of 2008, writes former business journalist Day (Business Administration/Johns Hopkins Business School; S&L Hell: The People and the Politics Behind the $1 Trillion Savings and Loan Scandal, 1993), Queen Elizabeth II asked […]