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Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
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25 апреля, 12:04

Brexit and UK higher education

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Higher education authorities are concerned about the implications of Brexit for the income and international standing of UK universities – the possible reduction in the numbers of EU students and staff and the loss of EU research funding. This column explores these threats and argues that there may be real cause for concern among lower ranking institutions faced by the perfect storm of Brexit, a general toughening of immigration rules, and greater competition promised in the UK government’s recent White Paper on higher education. 

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25 апреля, 04:08

Natural disasters and supply chain disruptions: Mitigating the propagation of negative shocks

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Natural disasters have enormous economic consequences, with the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake providing a particularly stark recent example. This column uses supply chain data for more than one million Japanese firms to explore how negative shocks from natural disasters propagate through firm networks. Shocks are found to propagate very quickly, due in large part to certain ‘hub’ firms that have a high number of supply chain partners. Production substitution is the key to slowing the propagation.

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25 апреля, 04:08

The interconnectedness between EU banks and shadow banking entities

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The Global Crisis highlighted how linkages between banks and shadow banking entities can lead to the amplification of shocks across borders and sectors, prompting policymakers to seek to improve the monitoring framework for assessing the interconnectedness of the shadow banking system. This column documents the cross-sector and cross-border exposures of EU banks to globally domiciled shadow banking entities. Among the findings are that 60% of these exposures are to shadow banking entities domiciled outside the EU and hence outside its supervisory powers,  and that approximately 65% of the exposures are to non-money market fund investment funds, finance companies, and securitisation entities. 

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24 апреля, 04:10

The persistent headache of sluggish investment

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Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies has slowed sharply since 2010. This column argues that this slowdown reflects a range of factors, including negative terms-of-trade shocks, slowing FDI inflows, weak activity, and rising private debt burdens and political risk. Policymakers can boost investment directly through public investment, and indirectly by taking measures to improve overall growth prospects and the business climate.

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24 апреля, 04:10

An asset management company for the Eurozone

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Nine years after the onset of the Global Crisis, the problem of non-performing assets is still acute in the Eurozone. This column takes stock of the different proposals to deal with the issue. It argues that a Eurozone-level asset management company can resolve bank fragility and spur economic recovery, but warns that lack of political will and legal barriers can impede the creation of such an agency. 

23 апреля, 04:13

Child height and living standards: Indian migrants in England

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Data typically show that people become progressively taller as living standards improve. But despite impressive recent rates of economic growth, India remains one of the worst-performing countries in terms of height. Using data from Indian and English health surveys, this column reveals that, conditional on parents’ height, children of Indian ethnicity are on average taller when born and raised in England rather than in India. The results provide evidence against the importance of genetic factors in explaining the disappointing growth performance of Indian children.

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23 апреля, 04:13

The operation and demise of the Bretton Woods system

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Beginning in 1944, the Bretton Woods system played a major role in shaping the global economy in the post-war period. This column describes how although it was successful in bringing about exemplary and stable economic performance in the 1950s and 1960s, familiar confidence and liquidity problems, as well as inflationary pressure and central bankers’ responses to it, ensured that Bretton Woods was short-lived. Nonetheless, legacies of the system, like the dollar standard, remain with us and will likely be with us for some time to come.

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22 апреля, 04:12

The impact of ad blockers on the Internet

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The vast majority of online content is financed through ad revenue. This column looks at how the growing use of ad blockers is affecting incentives for online content creation. Using data on site traffic and the proportion of users with ad blockers engaged, it argues that ad blocking intially increases traffic, but as ad revenues decline and sites are less inclined to invest in content, the pattern reverses and visitor numbers decline.

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22 апреля, 04:12

Education and inequality in the mid-20th century United States

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The exact causes of (and lessons from) the Great Compression – the decline in US income inequality in the mid-20th century – remain unclear. This column uses census data and changes in law to examine the effect of education across the complete distribution of income. Policies that increased attendance for young children in the late 19th and early 20th centuries appear to have had long-term implications for earnings and inequality, with returns to schooling highest among those at the lower end of the income distribution.

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21 апреля, 04:10

The Basel process: Good intentions and unintended consequences

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The first Basel Accord initiated what has become a three decade-long process of regulatory convergence of the international banking system. This column argues that by trying to regulate minimal capital standards, the Basel process itself contributed to an ever-increasing shortfall in aggregate bank capital. Consequently, European banks have become increasingly exposed to systemic risk, suggesting that expansive monetary policy could adversely affect the resiliency of banks. 

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21 апреля, 04:10

Eligibility easing and the lender of last resort

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Central banks helped contain the Global Crisis using a policy of 'eligibility easing'. The policy expanded the collateral that could be used to access liquidity facilities and the range of counterparties that could request liquidity. This column argues that although eligibility easing successfully reduced the need for central banks to act as lender of last resort or to provide emergency liquidity assistance, the time has come to determine its future role as a macro-prudential tool.

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21 апреля, 04:10

Brexit, globalisation, and de-industrialisation

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Many commentators have portrayed Britain’s referendum decision to leave the EU as being motivated by a popular rejection of globalisation. This column argues that in seeking to understand the economic basis of the Brexit vote, we should concentrate not on globalisation but on the long-term impact of de-industrialisation, which has left a legacy of a much more polarised service sector labour market, with large numbers of people condemned to poorly paid and insecure jobs.