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Is Another Recession Looming?

Since January 1948, whenever GDP has fallen below 2.0% on a year-over-year basis, a recession usually followed. This was brought to my attention by Bloomberg Economist, Rich Yamarone. The recession of 2008 ended in Mid 2009. Since then there have been 15 rolling periods (more on that in a moment). GDP has been below 2.0% in 9 of these periods, and yet, we have avoided recession. Is our luck about to run out? In this article we'll discuss the possibility of another recession and how it could affect the stock market. Let's begin with an overview of the methodology behind the analysis.

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