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2014 Could Reveal Stock Market Rally's Dubious Foundations

Stock market indices set records so frequently in the last months of 2013 that it became almost humdrum. Including dividends, the S&P 500 returned 32 percent for the year to December 29, its best performance since the early dotcom delirium of 1997. But given the way that episode – and other market rallies of similar magnitudes – played out, we should keep a keen eye out for black swans in the new year.

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