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The Week Ahead: Avoiding A Crisis of Confidence

The markets took a long awaited pause last week as the Dow Industrials declined 0.5% as did the Nasdaq Composite while the S&P 500 lost 0.7%. The decline corresponded with a drop in crude oil prices after the May contract moved briefly above the $42 level.

The drop in crude was attributed to an increase in supply. This was the sixth week in a row where supplies had increased however the 9.4 million barrel jump was more than three times the average forecast.

My analysis of crude oil in 2016 provides a good example of a missed opportunity. On January 21st I wrote a column " Time To Squeeze The Short Oil Speculators?" where I expressed my view that crude oil was ready for a short covering rally.

Psychology plays an important role in one's investing success so by concentrating on ones mistakes you are less likely to succeed in the future. Many investors and traders spend too much time over their missed opportunities. This is the reason I have always placed a strong emphasis on having a plan and focusing on the risk rather than the potential reward of any investment.
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