- 19 октября, 05:05
- ZeroHedge. Alternative view on facts
Despite all the talk of deleveraging, China did anything but according to its most recent data but the lagged impact of the tumbling credit impulse is starting to show up in the broader macro data. Despite the National Congress being under way (and recent credit spikes and positive PBOC hints) GDP growth limped lower to the expected +6.8% YoY, and fixed asset investment growth was the weakest in over 17 years...
Ahead of tonight's data dump, China macro data had been disappointing notably, having tumbled for over a month to its weakest since August 2016...
"A further acceleration in growth would surprise many investors who have taken their lead from measures to slow the property market, credit tightening moves and the government’s 6.5-percent or so growth objective for this year," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.
But amid The National Congress, and demands for calm in all markets, expectations for tonight's data were for the usual spot on 'meet' or even a 'beat' of well-managed expectations (following People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan's hints last weekend that expansion may accelerate in the second half to 7 percent).
China GDP YoY: MEET +6.8% vs +6.8% Exp (+6.9% prior) - missed the whisper number of +6.9% YoY
China Retail Sales YoY: BEAT +10.3% vs +10.2% Exp (+10.1% prior)
China Fixed Assets Investment YoY: MISS +7.5% vs +7.7% Exp (+7.8% prior) - lowest since Feb 2000
China Industrial Production YoY: BEAT +6.6% vs +6.5% Exp (+6.0% prior)
"Caution is needed in the Byzantine world of Chinese statistics," said Pauline Loong, managing director at research firm Asia-Analytica in Hong Kong. The data "traditionally deliver exactly what its leaders want to hear –- and what its leaders want the public and the market to hear – ahead of any sensitive political event."
As a reminder, The IMF is convinced that China will overtake the eurozone GDP in 2019...
Offshore Yuan had sold off heading into the data and extended losses after (remember Q3 was notable strength reverse into notable weakness after PBOC verbally intervened)
Still, China's inverted yield curve suggests not everyone is so excited about the future...