- 17 апреля, 10:18
After a year of pain, UK wages are rising (a little) faster than inflation again
- Latest: IMF warns on trade wars
- Wages now rising by 2.8%, slightly ahead of inflation
- Unemployment rate hits 42-year low of 4.2%
- But public sector workers are lagging behind
- TUC: Workers are still £14 a week worse off
Why do the IMF’s long-term forecasts suggest Britain might outperform some EU members, despite Brexit?
Maurice Obsfeld says the Fund is using a rather optimistic model for Brexit, in which no new tariffs are imposed between the UK and the European Union and there is broad equivalency between the two sides.
Chris Giles of the FT points out that the IMF’s World Economic Outlook is rather more positive than Maurice Obstfeld’s gloomy statement today. Is that because recent economic data, and spiralling trade tensions, mean the report is already out of date?
Obstfeld agrees that some “high frequency data” that suggests slowing economic growth has been released in recent weeks, since the report was completed. That includes various Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports, which have fallen back from recent highs.
IMF Chief Maurice Obstfeld tells you everything you need to know about latest World Economic Outlook estimates... "forecast cut off date was *before* March"Continue reading...