- 17 июля, 22:07
- Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality with Both Hands
A healthy macroeconomy continues to be the best of all labor-side policies. The past decade of bitter experience has taught us that monetary policy cannot do the entire job on its own: a healthy macroeconomy requires planning, and some of that planning must be on the fiscal-policy side. And the evidence that expansionary fiscal policy is a very effective tool to cure a depressed economy, and cure it with minimal blowback costs of any kind, continues to mount:
Jérémie Cohen-Setton, Egor Gornostay, and Colombe Ladreit de Lacharrière: Aggregate Effects of Budget Stimulus: Evidence from the Large Fiscal Expansions Database: "This paper estimates the effects of fiscal stimulus on economic activity using a novel database on large fiscal expansions for 17 OECD countries for the period 1960–2006. The database is constructed by combining the statistical approach to identifying large shifts in fiscal policy with narrative evidence from contemporaneous policy documents. When correctly identified, large fiscal stimulus packages are found to have strong and persistent expansionary effects on economic activity, with a multiplier of 1 or above. The effects of stimulus are largest in slumps and smallest in booms https://delong.typepad.com/lfe_database.zip...