Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Голдман Сакс) (NYSE: GS)&nbsp;&mdash; один из крупнейших в мире инвестиционных банков, являющийся финансовым конгломератом, в кругу финансистов известен как &laquo;The Firm&raquo;, занимается инвестиционным банкингом, торговлей ценными&nbsp; бумагами, инвестиционным менеджментом и другими финансовыми услугами, прежде всего, с институциональными клиентами. С 20 сентября 2013 г. входит в Промышленный индекс Доу-Джонса. Банк был основан в 1869 году, штаб-квартира находится в Нью-Йорке, в Нижнем Манхэттене. Председатель совета директоров&nbsp;&mdash; Ллойд Бланкфейн, президент&nbsp;&mdash; Гэри Коэн. Рыночная капитализация банка на май 2015&nbsp;&mdash; $89.16&nbsp;млрд. Подробнее &nbsp; http://www.goldmansachs.com/ http://so-l.ru/tags/show/goldman_sachs Sat, 19 Jan 2019 06:12:25 +0300 <![CDATA[Goldman chief says sorry over ex-banker's role in 1MDB scandal]]> David Solomon apologises to the Malaysian people for Tim Leissner’s involvement

The chief executive of Goldman Sachs has apologised to the people of Malaysia over the role of a former employee of the bank in the 1MDB scandal.

In a rare move for a Goldman chief executive, David Solomon joined the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call and gave an update on investigations into corruption surrounding the Malaysian sovereign wealth fund. He also said the bank was sorry for the effect the fraud had on the country.

Continue reading...]]>
http://so-l.ru/news/y/2019_01_16_goldman_chief_says_sorry_over_ex_banker Wed, 16 Jan 2019 20:35:48 +0300
<![CDATA[Goldman Sachs Is Split In 2 – Corrupt Culture]]> ]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2019_01_15_goldman_sachs_is_split_in_2_corrupt_cu Tue, 15 Jan 2019 20:10:39 +0300 <![CDATA[Wall St Whistleblower Informs Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon Of Toxic Culture]]> ]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2019_01_07_wall_st_whistleblower_informs_goldman_sa Mon, 07 Jan 2019 22:59:42 +0300 <![CDATA[Китайский стартап: сборник домашних заданий собрал $300 миллионов]]> Необычный китайский стартап Yuanfudao объявил о закрытии раунда серии F.

Компания привлекла $300 000 000 долларов, при оценке бизнеса в $3 млрд (в прошлом году оценивался в $1 млрд). Общий объем финансирования шестилетней фирмы превысил $544 млн. Ее ключевой инвестор — медийный конгломерат Tencent.

Yuanfudao, что в переводе с китайского значит «репетитор», развивает ряд образовательных сервисов. Компания предлагает доступ к онлайн-лекциям, базу данных с решениями экзаменационных примеров. Ее флагманский продукт — одноименное приложение для решения домашних заданий. Программа позволяет сфотографировать сложный пример и мгновенно показывает решение.

Yuanfudao заявляет об аудитории в 200 млн активных пользователей. В основном это учащиеся и их родители, которые с помощью приложения проверяют успехи детей. Ключевой источник прибыли для Yuanfudao — продажа доступа к онлайн-лекциям. Новые средства компания планирует потратить на развитие исследовательского подразделения по изучению ИИ, а также дальнейшую работу над приложениями.

На китайском рынке Yuanfudao не одинока. Основной соперник компании — стартап Zuoyebang, за которым стоит поисковой гигант Baidu, а также инвестиции от Sequoia Capital China и Goldman Sachs.

Напомним, ранее финский стартап обещает синтезировать еду из воды и воздуха.

Также «Хвиля» сообщала, что американский стартап запустил сбор пластикового мусора в Тихом океане.

Также стало известно, что украинский стартап привлек 4 миллиона долларов.

Источник: ain.ua

Подписывайтесь на канал «Хвилі» в Telegram, на канал «Хвилі» в Youtube, страницу «Хвилі» в Facebook

Сообщение Китайский стартап: сборник домашних заданий собрал $300 миллионов появились сначала на ХВИЛЯ.

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_12_28_kitayskiy_startap_sbornik_domashnih_zada Fri, 28 Dec 2018 09:15:47 +0300
<![CDATA[Опять Голдман Сакс попался]]> © Interfax 12:32 19.12.2018
СИНГАПУР-GOLDMAN-МЕНЕДЖЕР-НАКАЗАНИЕ

Сингапур пожизненно закрыл бывшему менеджеру Goldman доступ к рынку ценных бумаг из-за дела 1MDB


Сингапур. 19 декабря. ИНТЕРФАКС — Центробанк Сингапура ввел пожизненный
запрет на операции с ценными бумагами в стране для бывшего руководителя банка
Goldman Sachs в Юго-Восточной Азии Тима Лесснера из-за скандала вокруг
малазийского госинвестфонда 1Malaysia Development Bhd. (1MDB).
Ранее Т.Лесснер признал свою вину по обвинениям министерства юстиции США в
злоупотреблении средствами фонда 1MDB и в подкупе чиновников в Малайзии и
эмирате Абу-Даби.
В 2017 году сингапурский ЦБ ввел 10-летний запрет на операции с ценными
бумагами в Сингапуре для Т.Лесснера, а в среду было принято решение, что этот
запрет будет пожизненным.
«Обвинения, предъявленные Т.Лесснеру Минюстом США, а также признание им вины,
обеспечивают новые свидетельства вовлеченности Т.Лесснера в дело 1MDB, которых
ранее не было у Центробанка Сингапура», — говорится в заявлении ЦБ.
Ранее на этой неделе власти Малайзии предъявили обвинение Goldman Sachs
International и двум его дочерним компаниям в связи со скандалом с отмыванием
средств 1MDB.
Goldman Sachs обвиняется в сокрытии важной информации и публикации неверных
данных при продаже облигаций фонда в 2012 и 2013 годах на общую сумму $6,5 млрд,
из которых $2,7 млрд предположительно были украдены.
Представители Goldman Sachs отрицают вину банка и заявили о намерении
защищаться в суде.
Также малайзийские власти предъявили обвинения Т.Лесснеру. Ожидается, что
приговор бывшему топ-менеджеру будет вынесен в начале 2019 года.
Крупный скандал вокруг 1MDB разразился в 2015 году, когда WSJ написала о
возможном переводе порядка $700 млн на личные банковские счета Наджиба Разака,
на тот момент — премьер-министра Малайзии. Расследования, связанные с 1MDB,
ведутся как минимум в 10 странах, включая США. В общей сложности преступники
присвоили более $3,5 млрд денег фонда, причем около $1 млрд из них отмывались
через банковскую систему США, утверждает американское министерство юстиции.
Служба финансово-экономической информации
business@interfax.ru
finance@interfax.ru
пк аш

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_12_19_opyat_goldman_saks_popalsya Wed, 19 Dec 2018 12:56:23 +0300
<![CDATA[Goldman Sachs рекомендует инвесторам снизить риски]]> Инвестбанк обращает внимание инвесторов на повышенную неопределенность финансовых рынков в 2019 г., рекомендует снизить риски инвестпортфелей.

«Динамика рынка в 2019г. будет зависеть от восприятия инвестором долговечности текущей экономической экспансии», — заявили стратеги GS во главе с Дэвидом Костиным в заметке, выпущенной 14.12.2018. «Инвесторы должны повысить защиту портфеля».

Индекс S&P 500, вероятно, вырастет до 3000 пунктов к концу 2019 г., — данные аналитического прогноза GS, представленного в ноябре. Этому сценарию присвоен вес 50%. Сценарий, что индекс S&P 500 снизится до 2500 пунктов оценивается аналитиками GS с 30%-ной вероятностью. В тоже время позитивный сценарий, что индекс превысит значение 3400 пунктов оценивается с вероятностью 20%. График со сценариями GS по мультипликатору P/E по акциям, входящим в индекс S&P 500 представлен ниже.

Аналитики GS полагают, что на конец 2018 г. индекс S&P 500 закроется на уровне около 2850 пунктов. Это ниже среднего показателя из прогнозов глобальных инвестдомов, составленных Bloomberg. Напоминаем, что средний прогноз аналитиков в базе Bloomberg на 2019 г. составляет 3079.

Goldman Sachs рекомендует инвесторам снизить риски



t.me/sur_ok

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_12_18_goldman_sachs_rekomenduet_investoram_sni Tue, 18 Dec 2018 11:48:51 +0300
<![CDATA[1MDB scandal: Malaysia files charges against Goldman Sachs]]> Charges filed against US firm as part of corruption and money-laundering inquiry

Malaysia has filed criminal charges against Goldman Sachs and two of its former employees over the alleged theft of billions of dollars, heaping fresh pressure on the Wall Street titan over the 1MDB scandal.

Goldman subsidiaries and ex-bankers Tim Leissner and Ng Chong Hwa are accused of misappropriating $2.7bn (£2.14bn), bribing officials and giving false statements when helping to arrange bonds for state fund 1MDB.

Continue reading...]]>
http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_12_17_guardian Mon, 17 Dec 2018 12:30:30 +0300
<![CDATA[Кризисные явления в экономике США начинают усугубляться]]>

Нефтяные цены привели к тому, что многие компаний потеряли кредитный рейтинг «A».

Нынешний квартал стал рекордным с конца 2015 г. по объему долга, чей рейтинг был понижен с «А» до «ВВВ». По подсчетам Goldman Sachs, более 176 млрд долларов приобрело статус пограничный с «мусорным» уровнем.

Понижение кредитного рейтинга с «А» до «ВВВ»


Источник: Zerohedge.com

Основными компаниями, подпавшими под немилость рейтинговых агентств, стали представители нефтяного сектора.

Напомним, что с начала 2015 г. в общей сложности нефтегазовые компании Северной Америки не смогли погасить долги на 94,5 млрд долларов. Основной всплеск пришелся на 2016 г.

Падение котировок на «черное золото» привело к тому, что денежные потоки нефтяных предприятий уменьшились, что уже сказывается на их платежеспособности.

Однако понижение кредитного рейтинга опасно еще и тем, что по ряду долговых обязательств существуют ковенанты, которые обязывают эмитента иметь определенный рейтинг. Его понижение может спровоцировать кредиторов к досрочному требованию погашения задолженности.

Резюме от Investbrothers

Учитывая, что цены на сырье продолжают снижаться, то в ближайшее время мы можем увидеть всплеск банкротств в нефтегазовом секторе.

Кроме того, теперь стоимость рефинансирования для этих предприятий может возрасти, а это увеличит себестоимость добычи. То есть, если котировки на «черное золото» не остановят свое падение в ближайшее время, то это может отразится на всей отрасли и частично задеть экономику США.

Кризисные явления в Соединенных Штатах начинают развиваться.

 

Чтобы быть в курсе последних материалов от Investbrothers, подписывайтесь на наш TwitterFacebook и VK.

 





Другая статистика:

  1. Держатели госдолга США

Может быть интересно:

  1. Не только Россия распродает госдолг США
  2. Теперь статистику можно скачивать
  3. Минфин США пытается спасти фондовые рынки от падения?
  4. «Большой капитал» приготовился к обвалу
  5. Почему падение на рынках США не останавливается и стратегия действий

 

Примечание: к этой записи прикреплена форма для оценки. Чтобы оценить её, зайдите на сайт.]]>
http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_12_14_krizisnie_yavleniya_v_ekonomike_ssha_nachina Fri, 14 Dec 2018 20:35:47 +0300
<![CDATA[Goldman Sachs ухудшил прогноз для сырьевых рынков]]> Американский инвестбанк Goldman Sachs ухудшил прогноз на 2019 год для сырьевых рынков, включая сталь, медь и алюминий на фоне более слабого спроса со стороны перерабатывающей промышленности, чем ожидалось.

Так, для стали эксперты Goldman ожидают ослабления спроса в Китае на 5% в следующем году по сравнению с 2018 годом. Потребление меди, алюминия, угля и бумаги почти не изменится, сообщает Росбалт.

По оценкам аналитиков инвестбанка, новые площади на стадии строительства в Китае сократятся на 6,9%. Производство бытовой техники в 2019 году может снизиться на 2,3%, а выпуск инструмента и оборудования — на 10%. С точки зрения акций китайских компаний, связанных с сырьевым сектором, Goldman Sachs отдает наибольшее предпочтение сталелитейным предприятиям, а затем — производителям угля и цемента.

При этом эксперты полагают, что ослабление роста китайской экономики не приведет к повторению обвала 2015 года на сырьевых рынках, но будет суровым испытанием для сырьевой отрасли КНР. Аналитики считают, что производители сырья в Китае сейчас лучше способны справиться с колебаниями спроса и цен.

«Мы не думаем, что 2015 год повторится, поскольку прогнозируем сохранение прибыльности в большинстве секторов благодаря улучшению баланса и дисциплине поставок, которая защищает более высокую структурную загрузку мощностей», — указывает Goldman.

Подписывайтесь на канал «Хвилі» в Telegram, страницу «Хвилі» в Facebook

Сообщение Goldman Sachs ухудшил прогноз для сырьевых рынков появились сначала на ХВИЛЯ.

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_12_12_goldman_sachs_uhudshil_prognoz_dlya_sirev Wed, 12 Dec 2018 16:20:36 +0300
<![CDATA[Hong Kong Home Market Headed For Big Correction ]]> Back in October, Hong Kong’s housing market suffered its first decline in 29 months only days after HSBC became the first commercial bank to raise its prime lending rate, taking a hint from the Federal Reserve and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in ending a decade of cheap money.

In that time, Hong Kong retained the world’s hottest housing market, but there is new evidence now of an immient slowdown. 

New-home sales this month have tumbled to levels not seen since 1Q 2016, according to Midland Realty data.

Meanwhile, home prices have fallen for two straight months, the longest losing streak since 2016, according to the Centa-City Leading Index.

Bloomberg said other reports showed deteriorating sales at Country Garden, the 6th largest property developer in China, is fueling speculation that the world’s most expensive housing market is headed for a deep correction. 

Last week, home prices experienced the largest decline since March 2016, falling 1.3% week-on-week, the data showed. 

From August's peak, home prices have dipped about 5%.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has forecasted a 15 to 20% correction into 2020, as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is expected to raise rates in tandem with the Fed, according to a research report released Monday.

Here are some more signs the storm clouds are gathering over the Hong Kong housing market:

Mortgage applications recorded the most significant month-on-month drop in 20 years in September, according to Centaline Mortgage Broker Ltd. The number of applications slid 56% to 7,977, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported.

The number of transactions for luxury homes is now the worst on record. 

Hong Kong has for decades been one of the most stable places in the world, however, with one interest rate hike and the threat of an imploding real estate market in 2019, it seems like regime change is imminent. 

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_12_01_hong_kong_home_market_headed_for_big_cor Sat, 01 Dec 2018 04:45:00 +0300
<![CDATA[Weekend Reading: The Powell Put]]> Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

All it took was two 10% stock market corrections in a single year and some heavy “browbeating” from President Trump to reverse Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance on hiking interest rates.

On Wednesday, Powell took to the microphone to give the markets what they have been longing for – the “Powell Put.” During his speech, Powell took to a different tone than seen previously and specifically when he stated that current rates are “just below” the range of estimates for a “neutral rate.” This is a sharply different tone than seen previously when he suggested that a “neutral rate” was still a long way off.

Importantly, while the market surged higher after the comments on the suggestion the Fed was close to “being done” hiking rates, it also suggests the outlook for inflation and economic growth has fallen. With the Fed Funds rate running at near 2%, if the Fed now believes such is close to a “neutral rate,” it would suggest that expectations of economic growth will slow in the quarters ahead from nearly 6.0% in Q2 of 2018 to roughly 2.5% in 2019.

Such will also correspond with a drop in inflationary pressures, as we noted previously, which is already occurring with the drop in energy prices.

More importantly, falling oil prices are going to put the Fed in a very tough position in the next couple of months as the expected surge in inflationary pressures, in order to justify higher rates, once again fails to appear. The chart below shows breakeven 5-year and 10-year inflation rates versus oil prices.”

But here was the key comment that suggests the recent blasting by President Trump hit home:

Powell says moving too fast would risk shortening U.S. expansion, moving too slow could risk higher inflation and destabilizing financial imbalances.”

President Trump has been adamant that Powell’s aggressiveness was jeopardizing the economic recovery.

More interesting was when Powell reiterated they see no major asset class, however, where valuations appear far in excess of standard benchmarks” 

I am not sure which benchmarks the Fed looks at exactly.

The real risk to the market is not valuations at historically high levels by virtually every measure, but rather the risk of a credit related event due to the impact of higher rates on an abundance of lower-rated corporate debt.

Nonetheless, in the short-term, the “bulls” got their Christmas wish as noted by Bloomberg economists

“Tim Mahedy and Yelena Shulyatyeva:

‘Powell’s comment that rates are just below neutral is a step back from his comments earlier in the fall implying the FOMC still has a ways to go. This could be the first sign that the pace of rate hikes is set to slow next year.’

However, not all economists got the same dovish message as noted by Greg Robb via Marketwatch.

“I really don’t think he was dovish, not really. He didn’t say inflation was weaker or the economy was weaker than we thought. It is a bit of a market overreaction.” -Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

“The Fed has said they wanted to go above neutral. If they wanted to be neutral, they could have walked that back. He gave no hint of a pause in December.” – Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC

All the “bulls” need now is for President Trump to “cave in” on his demands on China, a problem he created in the first place, at this weekends G-20 summit. I would expect a deal that is well short of any original objective as China agrees to issues which are economically unimportant to them. However, such will “look like a win” for the Trump administration and should clear the way for “Santa to visit Broad and Wall.” 

After that, it’s anyone’s guess, but the real issues plaguing the economy and the markets have not been resolved.

Just something to think about as you catch up on your weekend reading list.

Economy & Fed

Markets

Most Read On RIA

Watch

Research / Interesting Reads

“There is nothing like price to change sentiment. – Helene Meisler

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_12_01_weekend_reading_the_powell_put Sat, 01 Dec 2018 00:25:00 +0300
<![CDATA[Fed & FOMO Rescue Stocks But Bond Yields, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Collapse]]> Trump better deliver...

China stocks eked out a modest gain on the week thanks to a late Friday liftathon ahead of this weekend's uncertainty...

 

But Shanghai Composite closed down on the month (2nd month lower in a row)

 

European markets were oddly quiet all week aside from the buying panic at the open on Monday...(but Italy handily outperformed)

But on the month, a mixed bag with Italy and Spain green and the rest of the majors red...

 

US equities soared on the week, with Nasdaq up 5.6% leading - the best week since Dec 2011...

 

Trannies soared in November and thanks to the last few days of Powell and Trade hope, stocks were rescued from another ugly month...

 

On the day, equity moves were dominated by optimistic headlines from Buenos Aires from both Trump and Xi sources...

 

Best week for S&P since Dec 2011 and barekly managed to get above its 50DMA...

 

November was all about two big short-squeezes...

 

Goldman Sachs plunged again today to fresh 2-year lows, erasing all post-Trump gains - worst month since Sept 2011

 

FANG Stocks closed lower for the 3rd month in a row...(longest losing streak since Feb 2016)... despite panic-buying this last week...best week since January

 

Credit markets tumbled for the 2nd month in a row - the worst 2-month drop since Jan 2016 for HY and IG (wider for 4 straight months). IG Credit compressed 5bps this week - best week since June (and HY CDX biggest weekly spread compression since February).

 

Bonds and Stocks were bid in the last hour today...

 

Extending their divergence post-Powell...

 

On the week, 2s and 30s are unchanged with the belly lower in yield...

 

Treasury yields tumbled in November - 10Y yields dropped over 13bps - the biggest monthly drop since Aug 2017

10Y Yields closed the week with a 3.00% handle...

 

The short-end of the UST yield curve collapsed in November (biggest flattening since March)...7th flatter month in the last 9 (note that the curve accelerated its flattening post 10/17 FOMC Mins from Sept, and after the 11/08 FOMC statement)...

 

with 2s5s almost inverted

The dollar index ended the month practically unchanged (hovering at its highest since May 2017)

 

It was a serious rollercoaster ride of a week as Powell's dovishness pummeled the dollar and pre-G20 trade chatter seemed to spark buying...

 

Bitcoin was down for the 5th week in a row but the 37% collapse in November is the worst month since August 2011 (Bitcoin Cash fell 60% on the month as it forked)

 

With Bitcoin back below $4000 to end the week...

 

Copper and Gold managed gains on the month, silver small losses, but crude collapsed...

 

Gold managed to close higher for the 2nd month in a row

 

But was unchanged against the yuan...

 

But WTI collapsed to its worst month since 2008...

 

Blowing back below $50 again today before spurious old news OPEC headlines sparked another ramp...

 

As it seems 5 Oz of Silver for a barrel of WTI Crude was just too much again...

 

Finally, we note that rate-hike expectations for 2019 have now collapsed to less than one!! just 22.25bps for the year (The Fed is still at 3 or 4 hikes)...

And as Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg notes, this hypersensitive market is anything but healthy...

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_12_01_fed_fomo_rescue_stocks_but_bond_yields Sat, 01 Dec 2018 00:01:14 +0300
<![CDATA[Goldman Sachs -2.5% after BAML adds to stack of downgrades]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_goldman_sachs_2_5_after_baml_adds_to_s Fri, 30 Nov 2018 23:14:59 +0300 <![CDATA[The Cracks Appear: A Record $90 Billion A-Rated Bonds Downgraded To BBB In Q4]]> Having written about it for over a year, it sometimes feels like the topic of "fallen angel" bonds, and the danger they present to the broader credit market and overall economy has been beaten to death (see most recently"The $6.4 Trillion Question: How Many BBB Bonds Are About To Be Downgraded").

But what if the market is focusing on the wrong tier when it comes to the upcoming downgrade deluge? What if instead of BBB credits, whose downgrade risk is, or should be, largely priced in by now (although the recent plunges in GE and PG&E bonds put this assumption to doubt) the real risk is just above the pre-fallen angel tier?

That's the point made by Goldman Sachs overnight, which argues that while some of the "BBB risks" warrant close monitoring, the bank's credit analysts "continue to struggle to see any recent developments that would make BBB-rated bonds a canary in a coal mine." To support their claim that BBB is not the time bomb many others claim it is, Goldman shows that BBB spreads have moved largely in line with their A-rated peers, while demonstrating that BBB bonds have not been an outsized source of weakness in IG.

The bank's assessment is that in the absence of a full-blown recession, downgrade risk among BBB-rated issuers is likely to remain  contained to structurally and cyclically challenged sectors and firms. As a result, Goldman's credit analysts view the risks as most pronounced in sectors including Food and Beverage, Retail/Consumer, and Autos. Meanwhile, they see value in other BBB-heavy  sectors such as Banks and Telecom.

In any case, the bottom line is that according to Goldman at least, investors should not be worried about BBB (that said, on Nov 1 Goldman told clients to buy oil; what followed next was the worst month for oil in 10 years).

So if not BBB, then where is the biggest credit risk in the investment grade space?

According to Goldman, the more pronounced risk facing IG investors, is a wave of downgrades among firms rated A and AA.

In our view, these companies are more likely to use their debt capacity for shareholder returns and/or M&A to diversify their businesses. In contrast, firms at the cusp of HY ratings should be inclined to manage their balance sheets more conservatively.

Is Goldman right this time? Who knows, but recent rating actions suggest that the bank may have a point: in the fourth quarter alone, a record $90 billion worth of "pre-fallen angel" were downgraded to BBB from A, and Goldman adds that the risk "remains skewed towards further negative actions."

But while rating agencies are clearly adding to the pre-fallen angel camp, there is no denying that the big threat is what happens if and when the BBB downgrade deluge begins. As Deutsche Bank calculated last week, when looking at those bonds most at risk of getting junked, $150bn of the $736bn of BBB- bonds are currently on negative watch/outlook with at least one rating agency, and in danger of imminent "junking."

And while Goldman remains clearly complacent about the BBB space at least until a recession hits, as Deutsche Bank warned last week, even before we get to an economic slowdown - some time in 2020 - or even before the market start pricing the slowdown in, "it feels like the tide might be turning and we start to see fallen angels outpace rising stars over the next year."

So there you have it: for those who believe a recession is either imminent or will soon be priced in, keep shorting the BBB space. Meanwhile, those who think it will take some more time before the rating agencies filter out the noise, the best place to be short is those "pre-fallen" A bonds who will first become BBBs, before they too join the deluge into the junk space some time around late 2019/early 2020.

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_the_cracks_appear_90_billion_a_rated_b Fri, 30 Nov 2018 20:28:34 +0300
<![CDATA[Goldman Sachs stock price target cut to $225 from $280 at BofA Merrill Lynch]]> ]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_goldman_sachs_stock_price_target_cut_to Fri, 30 Nov 2018 17:05:20 +0300 <![CDATA[Goldman Sachs downgraded to neutral from buy at BofA Merrill Lynch]]> ]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_goldman_sachs_downgraded_to_neutral_from Fri, 30 Nov 2018 17:05:05 +0300 <![CDATA[В Goldman Sachs назвали три сценария развития отношений Китая и США]]>

Новый виток торговой войны между США и Китаем может начаться после встречи глав США и Китая на саммите Большой двадцатки в Аргентине.

Об этом сообщает Bloomberg со ссылкой на аналитиков из Goldman Sachs Group Inc., передает UBR.

Эксперты назвали три сценария, по которому могут сложиться отношения США и КНР после переговоров Трампа и Си Цзиньпина. По одному из них, взаимные торговые пошлины остаются в силе, но обе стороны согласились продолжать переговоры об отмене торговой войны.

«На наш взгляд, наиболее вероятный вариант — это продолжение эскалации: таможенные ставки вырастут до 25% на весь импорт, который уже находится под дополнительными пошлинами, также тарифы распространятся на оставшийся китайский импорт», — считают эксперты Goldman Sachs.

Аналитики считают, что в ближайшем будущем страны не откажутся от введенных таможенных ставок. Также подчеркивается, что участники рынка «сфокусированы на встрече лидеров как на потенциальном переломном моменте в эскалации экономической напряженности» между США и Китаем.

Подчеркивается также, что если позитивная договоренность не будет достигнута, это может привести к замедлению росту экспорта китайских товаров в ближайшие месяцы. По мнению аналитиков, рост экономики Китая в начале 2019 года замедлится, но снижение курса юаня в этом году, вероятно, смягчит последствия. В Goldman Sachs заключили, что импортные пошлины также окажут влияние на внутренний спрос Китая, что увеличит неопределенность в краткосрочной перспективе.

Американские компании планируют переносить производство из Китая в другие страны. Это связано с сокращением доходов из-за торговой войны США и Китая. Бизнес США убежден в том, что больше страдает от торгового спора, чем предприятия из других стран. Эти данные приводятся в опросе Американской торговой палаты, в котором исследовали 219 компаний — треть всего производственного сектора.

Среди последних компаний, которые перенесли производство в юго-восточную Азию – Harley Davidson (завод в Таиланде), Panasonic (закрыл завод в США ради фабрики в Малайзии), производитель обуви и аксессуаров Steven Madden (перенес предприятие из Китая в Камбоджу) и компания Kayamatics, которая занимается интернетом вещей. Сейчас у этой фирмы два завода в Китае, но в ближайшее время она откроет две производственные линии в Малайзии.

Подписывайтесь на канал «Хвилі» в Telegram, страницу «Хвилі» в Facebook

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_v_goldman_sachs_nazvali_tri_scenariya_raz Fri, 30 Nov 2018 16:43:26 +0300
<![CDATA[Fed Wonders How Goldman Evaded Its Own Compliance Controls To Win 1MDB Deals]]> As we have repeatedly documented in these pages, Goldman Sachs's relationship with the Federal Reserve isn't limited to one between a regulator and regulatee. In fact, for decades, Goldman Sachs, more than any other bank, enjoyed an influence over the Federal Reserve - and particularly the New York Fed, the "first among equals" of the Federal Reserve system - that flips the conventional wisdom on its head: To put it succinctly, it was Goldman that dictates the rules to the Fed, not the other way around.

Goldman

Any doubters can familiarize themselves with the story of Carmen Segarra, who - at personal risk to any future career in banking or government - came forward several years ago with a cache of secret recordings the revealed the pervasiveness of "regulatory capture" at the New York Fed, which included evidence that her superiors repeatedly brushing aside her insistence that Goldman's regulatory rating be downgraded because of the "conflict-ridden" nature of some of its deals (note: Segarra was making her recordings exposing the central bank's unwillingness to challenge Goldman around the same time that the storied "Vampire Squid" was underwriting the $6 billion in 1MDB bonds, despite evidence that the bank ignored its own compliance department's warnings about the deal). And let's not forget the incident that unfolded five years ago where a junior Goldman banker received insider information directly from a "source" inside the NY Fed - offering unmitigated evidence of collusion between the two organizations. That banker, though fired from Goldman, was later let off with a slap on the wrist. 

This renders last week's "leak" that the Fed had asked Goldman to tighten oversight of its investment committees to better protect against conflict of interest as self-serving. That's because the NY Fed knows that, so long as the DOJ's spotlight lingers on Goldman's malpractice, it's only a matter of time before the regulator itself comes under scrutiny.

But the Fed's tacit campaign to show the public (and, more importantly, certain Fed skeptics in Washington) that it is "doing something" to change this toxic culture of complicity before Goldman helps another gang of plutocrats siphon off billions of dollars in public money continued on Thursday, when Bloomberg published a "leaked" report alleging that the Fed is ramping up its investigation into how Goldman managed to evade both its internal compliance controls, as well as the Fed's controls, while pursuing the 1MDB deal (though we imagine the endorsement by Goldman's then-CEO had something to do with it).

The Federal Reserve is ramping up its investigation into how Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executives dodged the bank’s internal controls while helping Malaysian authorities raise billions of dollars that later went missing, according to people briefed on the matter.

The probe examines the actions of the New York-based investment bank as well as individuals and has been gaining momentum in recent weeks, the people said, asking not to be identified because the inquiry is confidential. The Fed doesn’t have the powers of a criminal prosecutor, but it can and often does sanction people involved in banking scandals.

The Fed has previously interviewed current and former employees at the firm, prying into how easy it is to short-circuit compliance systems, the people said. In recent weeks, representatives from Goldman Sachs met with the Fed and defended the bank’s controls, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

As Goldman Sachs’s main regulator, the Fed has broad authority to penalize the bank or impose other changes. Earlier this year, it capped Wells Fargo & Co.’s size until the lender shores up internal controls.

"It is the Federal Reserve’s policy not to confirm or deny the existence of investigations," the central bank said in an emailed statement. "We refer criminal violations to the Department of Justice as necessary and exercise our enforcement and safety and soundness authorities if the facts are warranted."

If the New York Fed has been so bamboozled by Goldman's ability to evade oversight, they should look no further than the fact that former Goldmanites have been running the US financial system for decade. Former NY Fed Governor Bill Dudley worked at Goldman. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also worked there, and former Trump economic advisor Gary Cohn once helped run the bank. But most importantly, many of the central bank's employees yearn for the opportunity to walk through the "revolving door" leading from the doldrums of government hackery to the untold riches of the private sector.

Need more evidence that 1MDB was the result of a systemic problem? Look no further than Tim Leissner, the former head of Goldman's Southeast Asia operation who recently pleaded guilty to knowingly abetting money laundering and violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, alleged in his plea agreement that his actions were the result of a "culture of corruption" Goldman.

In a statement to the court, Leissner said his behavior was "very much in line of its culture of Goldman Sachs to conceal facts from certain compliance and legal employees." The Justice Department has also said in filings that the business culture at Goldman Sachs, particularly in Southeast Asia, prioritized consummating deals ahead of the proper operation of its compliance functions.

Still, the DOJ filings said individual bankers knowingly circumvented controls the bank had in place and hid certain details about the deal to prevent compliance officers from seeking to block the firm’s involvement in the transactions.

While we're sure the people of Malaysia appreciate Goldman CEO David Solomon's feigned "outrage" over Goldman's behavior, the bank's attempts to paint Leissner as a rogue employee have been seriously undermined by reports about the involvement of its senior leadership in the deal. Because 1MDB is just the latest in a long line of Goldman's regulator enabled disregard for the wellbeing of its client and, well, anybody who isn't Goldman. But maybe this time, the public backlash against the bank, and the decision of at least two high-profile clients to sue over 1MDB, will force Goldman to reconsider such "short-term" thinking by jeopardizing the only thing that matters to Goldman: Its client book.

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_fed_wonders_how_goldman_evaded_its_own_c Fri, 30 Nov 2018 16:22:00 +0300
<![CDATA[Goldman: The "Most Likely" Outcome Of The Trump-Xi Dinner Is More Escalation]]> Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, each accompanied by senior officials (with uber China-hawk Peter Navarro present), will dine together Saturday on the sidelines of the G20 conclave in Argentina. Market participants are intensely focused on the leaders’ meeting as a potential inflection point in the escalating economic tensions between the two countries.

And while many have expressed hopes that at least some tentative thawing in relations will emerge as a result of tomorrow's meeting, Goldman Sachs disagrees, and in a Thursday note said that a continued escalation of the U.S.-China trade war would be the "most likely" outcome of the meeting.

In previewing the three possible outcomes of the Saturday dinner, Goldman writes that it sees three basic scenarios for what happens after this weekend.

  • The first and in Goldman's view most likely outcome, is continuing on the current path of “escalation”— tariff rates rise to 25% on all imports currently under tariff, and tariffs are extended to remaining Chinese imports.
  • A close second is a “pause”, where existing tariffs remain in place but the two sides agree to keep talking with escalation put on hold.
  • A “deal”, which Goldman thinks is unlikely in the near term, would involve complete rollback of the current tariffs.

The reason why Goldman is surprpsingly pessimistic on the outcome is because there has been a growing sense among US policymakers that China has benefited disproportionately from the bilateral economic relationship, effectively supporting a hard line stance against Beijing.

This view has been articulated forcefully by President Trump, who has said for example “China has taken advantage of the United States for many, many years”, but has adherents in both political parties.

  • Most obviously, the US trade deficit with China has widened to new highs .
  • The US endured a huge retrenchment in manufacturing employment after China’s entry into the WTO, in contrast to expectations at the time.
  • Foreign companies operating in China have repeatedly expressed frustration with the business environment and perceptions of a non-level playing field.
  • Meanwhile, China has seen enormous improvement in material standards of living over the past two decades (accounting for the bulk of the reduction in global poverty over this period)—reflecting in part the spillovers from strong export growth.

Goldman also notes the political and policy divergence between the two countries. Here, the willingness of the US and other developed democracies to include China in international economic frameworks such as the WTO reflected in part an expectation that economic development would eventually lead to some form of political liberalization. But recent events have suggested divergence rather than convergence of political models and goals, for the following reasons:

  • Domestically, President Xi effectively consolidated power and the two-term limit on the presidency was abolished earlier this year. A range of other policy changes have generally been perceived as increasing Communist Party control, for example increased efforts to establish Party committees in private and foreign enterprises.
  • Internationally, China has adopted a more forward-leaning posture economically (e.g. with the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as efforts to negotiate a regional trade agreement) and geopolitically (e.g. South China Sea, etc).

Critically, these concerns appear to be shared by US politicians and bureaucrats well beyond President Trump. For that reason, in the view of many foreign policy practitioners, the US-China relationship may be more challenging to manage than in the past. If so, the past year’s disruptions to long-established economic relationships—and the possibility that they return in the future—may continue to influence firms’ investments in China even in the event of a near-term “deal” on trade policy.

In its take on the economic consequences of the G-20 event, Goldman predicts that Chinese export growth will likely weaken in coming months on payback from recent “front-loading”, and—unless a deal is reached—over time by some US substitution to non-Chinese suppliers. And while the bank expects these effects to slow Chinese growth beginning in early 2019, renminbi depreciation this year is likely to mitigate the impact. Meanwhile, continued tariffs will weigh on Chinese domestic demand—in the short term, via increased uncertainty and negative effects on confidence, which are bad for investment and durables consumption; in the long term, by potentially encouraging some relocation of production.

Finally, Goldman writes that the assets most sensitive to the trade outcome are likely to be the renminbi and equities.

In a “pause” or “deal” scenario Goldman expect USDCNY to remain below 7; “escalation” would likely result in moderate renminbi depreciation over the next few months (to the 7.3-7.4 range).

Equity market valuations are likely to be quite sensitive as well; Goldman models the relationship of equities with policy uncertainty and estimate that the MXCN price-earnings ratio could increase to 12 by year-end 2019 in a “deal” scenario (relative to a base-case target of 11) or fall to roughly 10 in an “escalation” scenario.

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_goldman_the_most_likely_outcome_of_th Fri, 30 Nov 2018 16:04:33 +0300
<![CDATA[Goldman Sachs предрек эскалацию торговой войны между США и КНР]]> http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_goldman_sachs_predrek_eskalaciyu_torgovoy Fri, 30 Nov 2018 15:59:55 +0300 <![CDATA[Nervous Traders Drag US Futures, World Stocks Lower Ahead Of G-20]]> US equity futures, European and Asian stocks all dropped as nervous investors looked ahead skeptically to a much anticipated meeting between the American and Chinese presidents that could decide the course of the trade war. US Treasury yields dropped and the dollar gained amid a flutter of risk-off sentiment across the globe.

The G20 Summit kicks off today in Buenos Aires, and while the main event will be the Trump-Xi "dinner of the decade" on Saturday, headline risk is high for the entire event. Market participants have every reason to be nervous: heading into the meeting neither side has expressed a willingness to make concession, making the outcome highly uncertain.

Ahead of his Saturday meeting with Xi, Trump said Thursday he’s very close to “doing something” with China as officials work on the contours of a deal that may delay ramping up tariffs on the Asian country in January. Any sign of a trade truce could take the edge off a rampant greenback and boost risk assets including emerging-market currencies and stocks. Goldman Sachs, however, said an escalation of tensions is the most likely outcome. Citi agrees and notes that even a positive statement will likely be faded promptly by markets because as Citi notes, "any material break in the trade war impasse is difficult to achieve, and so any positive response on Monday may ultimately be short-lived."

US equity futures were down 0.5%, following weakness in Europe where the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped to session lows, falling as much as 0.6% and trimming its weekly gains following a raft of disappointing macro data. Revised data showed Italy’s economy contracted 0.1% q/q in 3Q; German Oct. adjusted retail sales dropped -0.3% m/m; missing estimates of +0.4%. Euro-area inflation slipped to 2% in November from a year earlier, matching estimates, while the core reading unexpectedly dropped to 1%.

Germany’s DAX (-0.6%) felt the burden of falling auto names after Daimler (-2.7%) was downgraded to sell at HSBC, in turn moving the likes of Volkswagen (-1.1%) and BMW (-1.8%) lower in sympathy. Sector wise, consumer discretionary (weighed by auto names) lags, closely followed by financials as Morgan Stanley downgraded the EU banking sector, while Deutsche bank (-3.0%) shares hit an all time low as the bank feels the brunt of a double whammy from the aforementioned downgrade alongside a second day of raids amid the money laundering probe. Italian PM Conte and Economy Minister Tria are studying cutting the 2019 deficit/GDP target to around 2% in order to reach a deal with the EU; according to a paper.

In the latest Brexit news, UK PM May said Britain will be a more divided country if Parliament votes against her Brexit deal, while she also urged MPs to think about delivering on Brexit vote and answered that she is focused on December 11th vote when asked if she has a plan B if her deal is not approved by Parliament. The number of Conservative MPs who have spoken out against Theresa May's Brexit deal hit 100 as critics said her two-week charm offensive is failing.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded mixed amid a cautious global risk tone with shares gaining in Tokyo, slipping in Seoul and slumping in Sydney, while rebounding in Shanghai and Hong Kong ahead of the US-China showdown at the G20 and as participants digested disappointing Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (-1.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) initially followed suit to the lacklustre lead from their counterparts stateside with Australia the underperformer on broad weakness in which nearly all sectors declined, while Japanese exporters were hampered by recent flows into the JPY before staging a late recovery. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) were initially indecisive due to trade uncertainty amid a ‘hot and cold’ stance by US President Trump who stated he is close to doing something on trade with China but is unsure if he wants to, while reports noted that White House Trade Adviser and ‘China hawk’ Navarro is back on the guest list for the Trump-Xi dinner tomorrow evening. Furthermore, the latest Chinese PMI data left much to be desired as both Official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations with the former at its lowest since June 2016. The indices closed higher on the day, however.

  • Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.0 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.2)
  • Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 53.4 vs. Exp. 53.8 (Prev. 53.9)
  • Chinese Composite PMI (Nov) 52.8 (Prev. 53.1)

Also overnight, Japan reported the latest inflation data, which was slightly weaker on the margin with Tokyo CPI missing expectations;

  • Japanese Tokyo CPI (Nov) Y/Y 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.5%).
  • Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food (Nov) Y/Y 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.0%)

The Bank of Korea hiked the 7 Day Repo Rate by 25bps to 1.75% as expected, while it stated that sluggish employment eased somewhat and that exports will sustain favourable movements, but that it sees investments slowing. BoK Governor Lee said the rate decision was not unanimous as 2 board members voted to maintain rates, while Lee also commented that the policy rate is  still not at neutral and that he is not worried much about capital outflows due to further Fed rate hikes.

In FX, the dollar rebounded sharply from yesterday's losses, rising against most G-10 peers in a muted trading session; Treasury yields edged lower while the yen was steady as investors refrained from taking risks ahead of this weekend’s meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. The euro slipped to a day low, holding below the 1.14 handle, after London came into the market. The Norwegian krone crept lower after oil prices resumed their slump, while retail sales contracted in October, missing estimates and unemployment rose in November; DNB finds it likely that Norges Bank will adjust down its rate path in December. The pound remained under pressure, drifting downward as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May continued efforts to win backers for her Brexit deal. Emerging-market equities and currencies dipped.

Finally, Korea’s won held on to this week’s losses as Friday’s interest rate increase did little to assuage concern surrounding the economy.

WTI crude was dragged back under $51 a barrel, on track for the biggest monthly drop in a decade. The euro weakened after data showed inflation in the common-currency region easing.

Looking at this weekend's key event, Guggenheim's Scott Minerd told Bloomberg TV that “I wouldn’t be surprised at the end of this weekend if the U.S. and China didn’t announce a concord that basically sat down a path to help resolve the trade frictions. I don’t think that out of the meeting there’s going to come much substance, but there will be a sort of set of principles that will be established to start the process of bringing an end to the trade war."

WTI (-1.4%) and Brent (-1.0%) lost the USD 51/bbl and USD 60/bbl handles respectively with sentiment deteriorating as the G20 Summit goes underway, where participants will be looking out for leaks in regard to any potential supply change discussed by key policy makers. Meanwhile, ahead of the Dec 6th OPEC meeting, Russian Energy Ministry stated that OPEC and non-OPEC producers are comfortable with the current oil price, while the country’s Energy Minister Novak said Russia plans to maintain the average oil output level until year-end. Note: yesterday he said Russia proposes an output cut for next year.

In the metals complex, gold (-0.2%) erodes post-Powell gains and remains in the November range of USD 1200-1240/oz as the yellow metal mirrors the rising USD, with traders noting a clean break above the top of the range could result in further bullish action. Copper (-0.3%) trade lower amid the cautious risk tone ahead of the Trump-Xi G20 showdown, with moves to the downside exacerbated by the disappointing Chinese manufacturing PMIs overnight. Elsewhere, Shanghai aluminium prices declined to their lowest level in over two years to print their third consecutive monthly decline amid oversupply fused with downbeat Chinese PMIs

Economic data include MNI Chicago Business Barometer.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,734.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 356.33
  • MSCI Asia down 0.2% to 153.44
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.4% to 490.93
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 22,351.06
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,667.45
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 26,506.75
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 2,588.19
  • Sensex up 0.05% to 36,186.77
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 5,667.16
  • Kospi down 0.8% to 2,096.86
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 0.312%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1374
  • Brent Futures down 1.1% to $58.88/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.1 bps to 2.837%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 1.506%
  • Brent futures down 1.1% to $58.88/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,221.86
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 97.00

Top Overnight News

  • Federal Reserve officials have stepped off a predictable path of interest-rate increases and are signaling to investors a hard truth about relying on increasingly contradictory economic data: There are no easy answers anymore.
  • Waning year-end demand for the U.S. currency is leading to a decline in dollar-funding costs for Japanese and European investors
  • Gold may be turning the corner as prices head for the first back-to-back monthly gain since January, holdings in exchange-traded funds expand, and investors reappraise the metal’s prospects in 2019 amid speculation the Federal Reserve will pause its tightening cycle
  • The sequence in which the ECB will take its next policy moves “has pretty much been communicated. It’s more about the timing of the various elements,” Estonian central banker Ardo Hansson says in interview with Financial Times
  • The first official reading of China’s economy in November showed the manufacturing PMI on the brink of contraction. New export orders contracted for a sixth month while the non-manufacturing gauge, reflecting activity in the construction and services sectors, expanded but at a slower pace

Asian stocks traded mixed amid a cautious global risk tone ahead of the US-China showdown at the G20 and as participants digested disappointing Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (-1.6%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) initially followed suit to the lacklustre lead from their counterparts stateside with Australia the underperformer on broad weakness in which nearly all sectors declined, while Japanese exporters were hampered by recent flows into the JPY before staging a late recovery. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) were initially indecisive due to trade uncertainty amid a ‘hot and cold’ stance by US President Trump who stated he is close to doing something on trade with China but is unsure if he wants to, while reports noted that White House Trade Adviser and ‘China hawk’ Navarro is back on the guest list for the Trump-Xi dinner tomorrow evening. Furthermore, the latest Chinese PMI data left much to be desired as both Official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations with the former at its lowest since June 2016. The indices closed higher on the day, however. Finally, 10yr JGB traded lacklustre after having failed to benefit from the risk averse tone in Japan and BoJ’s presence in the bond market, as prices marginally pulled back from recent gains which had seen long-term yields hit their lowest levels since the beginning of August.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Worsening Economy Adds Pressure on Xi Heading to G-20
  • BOJ Governor Kuroda’s Latest Pay Raise Falls Short
  • Meitu Sinks on Concern Data Privacy Warning Will Worsen Losses
  • Evergrande Leads China Developer Rally; Rhb Cites Policy Hopes

Major European indices are lower across the board (Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%) after the region gave up opening gains amid trade jitters heading the US-Sino showdown at the G20 Summit. UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.7%) underperforms peers as heavyweight miners are pressured by the price action in the base metals complex, while Germany’s DAX (-0.6%) feels the burden of falling auto names after Daimler (-2.7%) was downgraded to sell at HSBC, in turn moving the likes of Volkswagen (-1.1%) and BMW (-1.8%) lower in sympathy. Sector wise, consumer discretionary (weighed by auto names) lags, closely followed by financials as Morgan Stanley downgraded the EU banking sector, while Deutsche bank (-3.0%) shares hit an all time low as the bank feels the brunt of a double whammy from the aforementioned downgrade alongside a second day of raids amid the money laundering probe. In terms of stock specifics, Altice (+8.0%) rose to the top of the Stoxx 600 (-0.5%) after the company sold its 49.9% stake in SFR GTTH for EUR 1.8bln, while Faurecia (-7.1%) is the worst performer in Europe amid a downgrade.

Top European News

  • Bayer Gains as Analysts Applaud Surprise Measures: Street Wrap
  • The London Housing Market Is Worse Than It Looks. Here’s Why
  • Italian Jobless Rate Jumps With More Reentering Labor Market
  • SocGen Seeks to Tap African Growth and Shrug Off Europe Woes
  • Europe Auto Stocks Drop as China, Trade Prompt PT Cuts at HSBC

In FX, the Greenback remains off pre-Powell highs in wake of the latest FOMC minutes that effectively affirm a shift in the approach towards forward guidance that may start in December after a final rate hike this year, with less pre-set indications and more flexibility to take on board incoming data. However, the Buck is ahead vs all G10 counterparts bar the Kiwi that is benefiting from favourable cross-winds, with the index edging just over 97.000 again. EUR - The single currency has been more volatile than most ahead of the looming G20 Summit and month end, with more spikes vs the Pound through 0.8900 around fixes due to ongoing/residual RHS interest, but another failure at 1.1400 vs the Usd on round number offers and option expiry flows as circa 1.6 bn roll off between the big figure and 1.1410 at the NY cut. Moreover, some Usd12.6 bn SOMA-related Dollar demand coincides with the final trading day of November, and this usually weighs most heavily on Eur/Usd vs potential bids at 1.1350 where another 1.6bn expiries reside. AUD/CAD - Also underperforming vs the Greenback, with the Aud bearing the brunt of a weaker than forecast Chinese manufacturing PMI overnight ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting on Saturday, and struggling top keep hold of 0.7300 as the Aud/Nzd cross pivots 1.0650 and the Kiwi remains within striking distance of its 200 DMA (0.6870). Meanwhile, the Loonie is back below 1.3300 as crude prices resume their slide amidst reports from Russia suggesting that OPEC+ are content with current levels, which have also piled more pressure on the Rub for obvious reasons.

In commodities, WTI (-1.4%) and Brent (-1.0%) lost the USD 51/bbl and USD 60/bbl handles respectively with sentiment  deteriorating as the G20 Summit goes underway, where participants will be looking out for leaks in regard to any potential supply change discussed by key policy makers. Meanwhile, ahead of the Dec 6th OPEC meeting, Russian Energy Ministry stated that OPEC and non-OPEC producers are comfortable with the current oil price, while the country’s Energy Minister Novak said Russia plans to maintain the average oil output level until year-end. Note: yesterday he said Russia proposes an output cut for next year. In the metals complex, gold (-0.2%) erodes post-Powell gains and remains in the November range of USD 1200-1240/oz as the yellow metal mirrors the rising USD, with traders noting a clean break above the top of the range could result in further bullish action. Copper (-0.3%) trade lower amid the cautious risk tone ahead of the Trump-Xi G20 showdown, with moves to the downside exacerbated by the disappointing Chinese manufacturing PMIs overnight. Elsewhere, Shanghai aluminium prices declined to their lowest level in over two years to print their third consecutive monthly decline amid oversupply fused with downbeat Chinese PMIs.

 

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Global Economy at G30 in New York
  • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 58.5, prior 58.4

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As I peer into the distance toward s snow-covered mountain tops, the last day of November is now upon us and all of a sudden we’re into the final countdown to year-end, my Xmas ski trip, and thus the likelihood of getting reacquainted with my knee surgeon sometime early next year. We noted at the start of this week that there are still a few big events for markets to get past before we can call it a year and the first of those starts today and continues into the weekend with the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires. The G20 overall is a sideshow to the main event, which is the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jingping. Will the two leaders strike a truce and thus a grand bargain on trade or will talks hit another snag? It would take a brave man to predict the outcome and it does feel like messages have been fairly mixed in recent days despite some optimism from the US side, especially from Trump’s economic advisor Kudlow, that a deal can be made. Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the two sides are approaching a deal, possibly to include suspension of any new US tariffs through next spring in exchange for discussions and the lifting of restrictions on US agriculture and energy exports. On the other hand, the President told the very same newspaper earlier this week that it is “highly unlikely” that the next tranche of tariffs, set to take effect on Jan 1, will be delayed. Yesterday’s Reuters headline quoting Trump as saying that he is “close to doing something with China, but he doesn’t know if he wants to do it” perhaps sums up the state of play nicely. Interestingly, the South China Morning Post reported that the White House trade policy adviser, Peter Navarro – who is a known China hawk – is now scheduled to attend the dinner between Trump and Xi having initially been left out. US Trade Representative Lighthizer is still due to attend.

So all to play for and something for everyone in the pre-show headlines. As for timing, the meeting between Trump and Xi is due to take place Saturday evening at some point over dinner, however the exact timing is uncertain. Another potentially interesting meeting on the agenda was that between Trump and Russian President Putin. However, after the Kremlin confirmed yesterday that the meeting was to go ahead tomorrow, President Trump instead said that he had cancelled the meeting, tweeting yesterday that his decision was “based on the fact that the ships and sailors have not been returned to Ukraine from Russia”.

In any case, the tensions between Russia and the Ukraine should also be a focal point along with the trade war, while the  presence of the Saudi Crown Prince could also be another talking point. The event has no shortage of AListers however with Japan’s Abe, Germany’s Merkel, France’s Macron, UK’s May, EC’s Juncker, EU’s Tusk, Italy’s Conte, and Turkey’s Erdogan among the leaders attending so there’s the potential for plenty of newsflow this weekend.

As for markets, well the strong three-day winning run for US equities came to an end last night with the S&P 500 (-0.22%), DOW (-0.11%) and NASDAQ (-0.25%) all finishing slightly in the red. As has been the trend recently, tech led the decliners with the NYSE FANG index down -1.13% with Apple (-0.77%) down for the sixth time in the last eight sessions. It was hard to know if the slight riskoff was some pessimism ahead of the G20 or reaction to the news that Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen had pleaded guilty to a new federal charge and also agreed to cooperate with Robert Mueller. Prior to this, Europe had opened strongly, benefiting from the dovish Powell halo effect, though ultimately the moves faded. The STOXX 600 pared gains of as much as +0.75% to close +0.20% and the DAX erased gains of +0.93% to close flat.

This morning in Asia markets are off to a mixed start with the Nikkei (+0.33%), Hang Seng (+0.69%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.23%) all up while the Kospi (-0.26%) is down. In terms of overnight data, China’s official November composite PMI continued to soften at 52.8 (vs. 53.1 last month) as both manufacturing (50.0 vs. 50.2 expected) and non-manufacturing PMIs (at 53.4 vs. 53.8 expected) missed expectations. In the details of the manufacturing PMI, new export orders (at 47.0) printed below 50 for the 6th month in a row with new orders also continuing to soften sequentially with the current reading at 50.4 (vs. 50.8 in last month and 53.8 back in May). Japan’s preliminary October industrial production stood at +2.9% mom (vs. +1.2% mom expected) - the highest since January 2015.

Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (-0.17%) are pointing towards a slightly softer start. The BoJ is also set to release its monthly bond-buying plan for December at 5:00 pm Tokyo time (8:00 am BST) today which is likely to be closely watched for any possible tweaks as the BoJ tries to boost trading in JGBs. The minutes from the November FOMC meeting were released yesterday evening, but didn’t change the debate much, especially when compared to the market-moving comments from Chair Powell earlier this week. The minutes said that many Committee members may want to change the “further gradual increases” language in the policy statement to something that “places greater emphasis on the evaluation of incoming data.” This confirms the renewed emphasis on data dependency that Powell and Clarida pushed this week. The minutes also signaled that a technical adjustment to the rate setting framework would likely be needed at the December meeting, i.e. raising the IOER rate only 20bps rather than the full 25bps in order to keep the effective federal funds rate near the middle of the target range.

There were several notable landmarks in markets elsewhere yesterday. The first was the 10-year Treasury briefly passing below 3% - touching an intraday low of 2.995% - for first time since September 18th and WTI oil passing below $50 – hitting a low of $49.41 - for the first time since October 9th last year. To be fair both rebounded off the lows. Ten-year Treasuries ended the day at 3.026% (still down -3.3bps on the day) while WTI made a full reversal to finish the session back above $51 (+2.11%), which is roughly where it’s trading this morning. That rebound appeared to be helped by a Reuters report suggesting that both Russia and Saudi Arabia were discussing the details behind a cut in production.

The rally for Treasuries was given an added boost by yesterday’s data in the US. The highlight was the soft core PCE print for October (+0.1024% vs. +0.2% expected) which resulted in the annual rate falling by one-tenth from an already downwardly-revised +1.94% yoy to +1.77% yoy, the lowest since February. On the back of a dovish Powell on Wednesday, that data was perhaps more fuel to the fire for the dovish camp and could drive more talk of a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle. It’s worth noting that the healthcare component of the data was soft and that there could be some seasonality in this data so that is something to keep in mind.

The other interesting data point in the US yesterday was the weekly initial jobless claims print, which jumped 10k to 234k (vs. 220k expected) and the highest in six months. The four-week moving average is now at 223k and the highest since July. There was some talk that the Thanksgiving Holiday may have had an impact on the data, however a persistent uptick in the jobless claims data would definitely be food for thought looking ahead. So worth setting a calendar reminder for this print over the next two Thursdays after a long period where the number has been no more than a mild distraction to lunch or breakfast depending on where you are in the world.

Over in Italy, the Government and the European Commission continued to trade barbs, with Conte saying that they “are not indifferent to the reaction of financial markets [but] we can’t back away from the core promises we made to Italians.” There still seems to be movement toward a budget deficit of 2.2% of GDP rather than 2.4%, but Commission VP Dombrovskis said that would be an insufficient cut. Italian Deputy Premier Salvini said that the Italian government is not considering lowering the budget deficit below 2.2% while adding that “if there is a saving we won’t leave the money there unspent, we will invest it for other spending.” Still, the Italian press reported that the EU could give Italy more time before instigating the Excessive Deficit Procedure, i.e. delaying the decision till February 2019. This helped BTPs rally -5.2bps despite tepid demand as the Treasury auctioned 4.25 billion euros of debt across the 10- and 5-year tenors.

On Brexit, we didn’t get a lot of new information yesterday but the pound nevertheless traded -0.35% weaker versus the dollar. EU Chief Negotiator Barnier said that discussions are over and that the current Withdrawal Agreement is the only possible Brexit deal. DUP Leader Foster reiterated her opposition to the deal, saying that there exists a better option. It’s hard to square those two views, which explains where there is so much uncertainty ahead of next month’s Parliamentary vote. Interesting it looks like we’ll have a live televised debate with May Vs Corbyn on primetime TV on Sunday 9th December. The problem is that May has agreed to have it on the BBC whereas Corbyn is leaning towards ITV as he didn’t want it to clash with the finale of “I’m a celebrity get me out of here”. It rather sums up the process at the moment. Overnight, on her way to the G-20 summit, UK PM May said that national divisions over Brexit will widen if lawmakers fail to back her plans in the parliamentary vote next month while adding that there are no alternatives to her current deal as she ruled out another referendum and said Britain won’t be in a Customs Union with the EU and dismissed the Norway option. She also reiterated that she won’t resign in the event of her Brexit deal getting rejected by the UK Parliament.

Coming back to inflation, there was also some disappointment in the German HICP reading which came in at a below market +0.1% mom (vs. +0.2% expected) – and so pushing the annual rate down two tenths to +2.2% yoy. A reminder that we get the broader Euro Area reading today in addition to country level reports from France and Italy.

Apart from the inflation and jobless claims prints, the US also released personal income and personal spending data, which both surprised to the upside and supported the narrative of continued labour market strength for now. Income rose +0.5% mom, the fastest pace since January, while spending rose +0.6%, fastest since March. The housing market continued to show signs of slowing, as home sales fell -2.6% mom, their sixth consecutive decline. That’s the longest such streak since 2014.

In terms of the day ahead, as mentioned at the top the G20 Leaders Summit officially gets underway and continues into the weekend, so expect headlines throughout. As for data, shortly after this hits your emails this morning we’ll get November Nationwide house price data in the UK and October German retail sales numbers. Not long after that we get the preliminary November CPI reading for France before the aforementioned Euro Area reading. In the US the only release scheduled is the November Chicago PMI, which is expected to largely hold steady around October’s level. Away from the data we’re finishing the week with two more ECB speakers, with Mersch and Coeure speaking at separate events. Finally the Fed’s Williams will speak this afternoon on the “Global Economy” at an event in New York.

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http://so-l.ru/news/y/2018_11_30_nervous_traders_drag_us_futures_world_s Fri, 30 Nov 2018 15:15:38 +0300