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Alpha Bank Group
27 февраля 2014, 13:39

Западные инвесторы бегут из Украины

  Иностранные инвесторы постепенно уходят из Украины, и эта тенденция продолжается уже несколько лет. С учетом нестабильной политической и сложной экономической ситуации банки с иностранным капиталом продолжат активно сокращать свое присутствие в банковском секторе страны. Иностранные банки начали сворачивать свои операции практически сразу после начала финансового кризиса. В первые годы эта была стандартная практика на всех развивающихся рынках, а также в некоторых развитых странах, поскольку крупные банки вынуждены были сокращать расходы и оптимизировать бизнес. Затем кризис пошел на спад, но иностранные банки ускорили свое бегство с украинского рынка. Причин здесь может быть несколько. Менеджмент компаний не стал дожидаться дальнейшего ухудшения ситуации, учитывая действия правительства и Виктора Януковича, а также волатильность гривны, экономическую нестабильность и вероятность ухудшения финансового состояния населения. Ранее банки уже потеряли большую часть своих инвестиций в Венгрии и странах Прибалтики и были вынуждены сокращать присутствие на этих рынках, так как с целью сокращения дефицита бюджета были приняты жесткие нормативы по показателям финансовых учреждений. Если бы Украина подтвердила свое намерение присоединиться к ЕС, бюджетные показатели и ужесточение нормативов в банковском секторе стали бы обязательными условиями. Выполнение аналогичных условий могут потребовать и международные кредиторы в случае выделения финансовой помощи. Банки, ушедшие с рынка Украины Банк Дата покупки банков Украины Сумма инвестиций ($ млн) Дата продажи активов Сумма сделки по продаже активов ($ млн) Swedbank (Швеция) 2007 735 2013 52 Home Credit Bank (Чехия) 2006 40-65 2011 30-45 SEB (Швеция) 2004-2011 157,5 2012 25-30 Commerzbank (Германия) 2007-2010 740 2012 150 Erste Bank (Австрия) 2006 139 2013 83 Alpha Bank Group (Греция) 2008 18 2013 109 Bank of Georgia (Грузия) 2007 81,7 2011 9,6 Platinum Bank 2005-2011 52,3 2013 160 Societe Generale (Франция) 2006-2012 65 2013 Менее 10 "Кредитпромбанк" 2010 400 2013 1  Безусловно, политическая и социальная нестабильность не способствует инвестиционной привлекательности, поэтому пока в экономику будут вкладывать только смелые инвесторы в рамках портфеля, подразумевающего высокие риски. Пока же можно ожидать, что иностранные банки продолжат отказываться от украинских активов. Впрочем, проблемы ожидают не только банковский сектор. Международный инвестиционный фонд Dragon-Ukrainian Properties and Development Plc., работающий на Украине в секторе недвижимости, планирует как можно скорее реализовать имеющиеся активы и больше не инвестировать в рынок. Часто инвесторы действуют с оглядкой на более крупных игроков, и здесь новости тоже не очень радостные. Крупнейшим держателем украинских государственных облигаций является фонд группы Franklin Templeton, но его инвестиции в общем размере $7 млрд с начала года обесценились на $522 млн. 5-летние украинские облигации торгуются с доходностью 13,63%, 10-летние бумаги – 11,88%, 7-летние облигации – 11,22%. Самая низкая доходность, на уровне 10%, у 10-летних государственных бондов.  Ссылки по теме Украина: выход из кризиса по-европейски Кризис власти мешает Украине разобраться с долгами Украинские банки стремительно теряют деньги По состоянию на 25 февраля стоимость кредитно-дефолтных свопов снизилась до 982 пунктов. Судя по всему, инвесторы отреагировали на планы международных кредиторов выделить финансовую помощь украинскому правительству. С большой вероятностью показатель будет расти в ближайшее время, так как Украине может просто не хватить времени, до того момента как вопрос о выделении средств будет решен окончательно.

27 февраля 2014, 13:39

Западные инвесторы бегут из Украины

  Иностранные инвесторы постепенно уходят из Украины, и эта тенденция продолжается уже несколько лет. С учетом нестабильной политической и сложной экономической ситуации банки с иностранным капиталом продолжат активно сокращать свое присутствие в банковском секторе страны. Иностранные банки начали сворачивать свои операции практически сразу после начала финансового кризиса. В первые годы эта была стандартная практика на всех развивающихся рынках, а также в некоторых развитых странах, поскольку крупные банки вынуждены были сокращать расходы и оптимизировать бизнес. Затем кризис пошел на спад, но иностранные банки ускорили свое бегство с украинского рынка. Причин здесь может быть несколько. Менеджмент компаний не стал дожидаться дальнейшего ухудшения ситуации, учитывая действия правительства и Виктора Януковича, а также волатильность гривны, экономическую нестабильность и вероятность ухудшения финансового состояния населения. Ранее банки уже потеряли большую часть своих инвестиций в Венгрии и странах Прибалтики и были вынуждены сокращать присутствие на этих рынках, так как с целью сокращения дефицита бюджета были приняты жесткие нормативы по показателям финансовых учреждений. Если бы Украина подтвердила свое намерение присоединиться к ЕС, бюджетные показатели и ужесточение нормативов в банковском секторе стали бы обязательными условиями. Выполнение аналогичных условий могут потребовать и международные кредиторы в случае выделения финансовой помощи. Банки, ушедшие с рынка Украины Банк Дата покупки банков Украины Сумма инвестиций ($ млн) Дата продажи активов Сумма сделки по продаже активов ($ млн) Swedbank (Швеция) 2007 735 2013 52 Home Credit Bank (Чехия) 2006 40-65 2011 30-45 SEB (Швеция) 2004-2011 157,5 2012 25-30 Commerzbank (Германия) 2007-2010 740 2012 150 Erste Bank (Австрия) 2006 139 2013 83 Alpha Bank Group (Греция) 2008 18 2013 109 Bank of Georgia (Грузия) 2007 81,7 2011 9,6 Platinum Bank 2005-2011 52,3 2013 160 Societe Generale (Франция) 2006-2012 65 2013 Менее 10 "Кредитпромбанк" 2010 400 2013 1  Безусловно, политическая и социальная нестабильность не способствует инвестиционной привлекательности, поэтому пока в экономику будут вкладывать только смелые инвесторы в рамках портфеля, подразумевающего высокие риски. Пока же можно ожидать, что иностранные банки продолжат отказываться от украинских активов. Впрочем, проблемы ожидают не только банковский сектор. Международный инвестиционный фонд Dragon-Ukrainian Properties and Development Plc., работающий на Украине в секторе недвижимости, планирует как можно скорее реализовать имеющиеся активы и больше не инвестировать в рынок. Часто инвесторы действуют с оглядкой на более крупных игроков, и здесь новости тоже не очень радостные. Крупнейшим держателем украинских государственных облигаций является фонд группы Franklin Templeton, но его инвестиции в общем размере $7 млрд с начала года обесценились на $522 млн. 5-летние украинские облигации торгуются с доходностью 13,63%, 10-летние бумаги – 11,88%, 7-летние облигации – 11,22%. Самая низкая доходность, на уровне 10%, у 10-летних государственных бондов.  Ссылки по теме Украина: выход из кризиса по-европейски Кризис власти мешает Украине разобраться с долгами Украинские банки стремительно теряют деньги По состоянию на 25 февраля стоимость кредитно-дефолтных свопов снизилась до 982 пунктов. Судя по всему, инвесторы отреагировали на планы международных кредиторов выделить финансовую помощь украинскому правительству. С большой вероятностью показатель будет расти в ближайшее время, так как Украине может просто не хватить времени, до того момента как вопрос о выделении средств будет решен окончательно.

02 апреля 2013, 03:41

New Ads Can Carry On A Conversation

For years, ads have screamed in our direction in an effort to get our attention. Nuance Communications hopes its latest offerings will get us to stop plugging our ears -- and even to talk back. Nuance, a provider of speech recognition and language technology, on Monday announced a new ad format, Nuance Voice Ads, that allows consumers to carry on spoken conversations with mobile advertisements. Nuance’s push for more interactive ads underscores the challenge marketers face in delivering their messages on small smartphone screens that give them only a few inches of space (if that) to make an impression. Facebook and Twitter, for example, have redesigned their applications and websites to help brands bring their sponsored photos and videos to the fore. Yet unlike images and videos, Nuance’s Voice Ads won’t settle for being seen and heard. They also demand to be spoken to. “It’s sort of like a little slice of a virtual assistant application,” said Nuance chief marketing officer Peter Mahoney. “It’s designed to engage you so you can literally have a direct conversation with a brand.” In a demonstration of the technology, Nuance showed how a fictional deodorant company, dubbed "Alpha," could use Voice Ads to create an spot featuring a chatty Magic 8 Ball that answers questions and dispenses advice, all while working in the company’s tagline and staying loyal to the brand’s image. Ask the Magic 8 Ball, "Should I go to work today?" and a male voice answers, "Do you want to?" No. "Um, duh, don't go," the ad answers. "But on the off chance that you run into someone in person, use Alpha. Smells like money in the bank." Though the deodorant example is more fun than functional, the Voice Ads could be designed to offer coupons or dispense practical information about a product. Nuance’s speech recognition technology can also distinguish the speaker’s gender, so it could tailor the ad copy to either women or men, in real time, depending on who’s speaking. Mahoney said that since the ads can ask questions in a conversational and friendly way, Voice Ads would not only be able to get a user's attention, but collect personal information as well. “There are some really interesting applications for ads that have a data gathering or survey application,” he said. “You could imagine seeing an ad for a coffee shop that says, ‘Hey I can give you free drink coupon. What’s your favorite coffee?’ And you could say, ‘I would like a double mocha chai.’ And it would understand what that was and say, ‘Let me give you a coupon for one of those that you like.’” “The data is really valuable, of course, for the brand, because they want to know what people like,” Mahoney added. “And that creates loyalty for people because they feel like it’s great customer service.” Voice Ads are currently designed to appear within advertising on mobile apps, such as the banner ads that appear at the top of free games. According to Mahoney, the company could eventually expand the technology to other devices, including televisions or even cars, where radio commercials might one day be able to carry on a conversation. He estimates that Voice Ads are two to three months away from appearing on consumers' phones. Marketing experts agree that the first brands to incorporate Nuance’s Voice Ads will benefit from the sheer novelty of the approach. But Nuance's more interactive audio advertising could also be more intrusive. Rebecca Lieb, an analyst with the Altimeter Group, a research and advisory firm, argues that people are often on their smartphones in settings where it would be inappropriate to talk out loud. “Smartphones are largely meant for browsing and for time-wasting, and people use smartphones in many, many situations that are not appropriate for talking,” said Lieb. “When you think about serving the right ad to the right person at the right time, this is not always going to be [it], because voice interaction is not always going to be desirable or possible for smartphone users.” And do people really want to talk to the ads they so often try to ignore? The appeal of Voice Ads -- and whether the technology can become an indispensable offering -- will ultimately depend on how advertisers incorporate them. Nuance is partnering with several ad agencies, such as Leo Burnett, Digitas and OMD, and a handful of mobile advertising firms, including Millennial Media, Jumptap and Opera Mediaworks, to persuade companies to adopt the new form of chatty marketing. “To some this will be annoying and gimmicky no matter how it’s deployed,” said Chuck Martin, chief executive of the Mobile Future Institute, a research firm. “But it can evolve to be useful because now that the capability exists, marketers will figure out how to best use it."

Выбор редакции
12 марта 2013, 04:23

Rumors, Short Squeeze or Trading Insider Information?

U.S. equity markets rallied once again after opening weaker Monday repeating previous performances. There wasn’t much news domestically. The Fed continued modest POMO actions which will grow in scope throughout the week. Stocks were quiet most of the day but got a lift on rumors that Apple (AAPL) will declare a dividend of some kind. If they do this, then the SEC should be monitoring who and what groups were front-running this piece of news.   Perhaps helped by Apple rumors U.S. equity markets continued to rally as the DJIA (DIA) set another (ho-hum) record high. The focus now turns to the S&P 500 (SPY). To match the DJIA, the index only needs to rally roughly less than 10 points, which will launch a flurry of more bullish headlines. Tech (XLK) and Financials (XLF), the heavyweight sectors in the S&P, led the way higher Monday. The dollar (UUP) was strong early in the day only to reverse course and settle slightly lower from the day’s highs. Gold (GLD) was modestly higher and marking time while commodities (DBC) were flat. Bonds (TLT) were also mostly unchanged. The only other serious financial news Monday (away from Apple shenanigans) was from China. Chinese authorities reported Industrial Production of 9.9% and Retail Sales of 12.2%. Generally, this kind of data would thrill most countries and their investors but for China these data points are a disappointment. In parallel, investors fretted that the government will tighten further by increasing interest rates and/or raising bank reserve requirements. On top of that, add in the general mistrust of China data by investors and pundits—all said and done, things get pretty murky. In any event, stocks in China were lower once again. We did a chart video regarding popular GXC (SPDR China ETF) just two weeks ago but today did another which can be accessed here. Last week we also featured a video regarding the popular Shanghai CSI 300 Index and detailing how one might trade the market overall. We’ve raised our long exposure to equities from 50% to 68% in our flagship DSP Portfolio. For more conservative investors it may pay to be cautious with stocks getting overbought. But that condition can remain intact especially as the Fed’s money printer is set to “turbo”. In such an environment, it’s hard to consider shorting against this tsunami of liquidity. This is why I’ve recommended to subscribers to build a base around our suitable Lazy portfolios as the core of investing and adding selective issues to generate alpha. That said, this ultra-light volume in combination with current market conditions being overbought makes markets more accident-prone. Volume remains in some sort of new normal level of “light” while breadth per the WSJ was mildly positive. You can follow our pithy comments on twitter and become a fan of ETF Digest on facebook.           Continue to U.S. Sector, Stocks & Bond ETFs               Continue to Currency & Commodity Market ETFs             Continue to Overseas Sectors & ETFs           The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.     The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.   The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise. There isn’t much economic news scheduled until Wednesday. And, let’s not forget quadwitching is Friday which coincides with the highest POMO of the week scheduled (cough) coincidentally for that day.  Let’s see what happens.  

11 февраля 2013, 19:08

Ron Paul: “6,000 Years of History, Gold Is Always Money, Paper Money Fails”

From GoldCore Ron Paul: “6,000 Years of History, Gold Is Always Money, Paper Money Fails” Ron Paul spoke with Bloomberg television and said that we are in a currency war and we have been for decades. He noted that governments have always competed against each other’s currencies even under Bretton Woods. It has always been a form or protectionism and will make people want to export more. Dr. Paul said don’t blame countries like China and Japan just look at the debt the U.S. is buying. There will always be currency wars. The Bank of Japan claims it has to defend itself against deflation and decades of slow growth. Ron Paul noted that the Bank of Japan’s yen devaluations will eventually lead to further price inflations that are to come. Investors and citizens will eventually reject the yen and switch to other currencies like dollars or Swiss francs.  Then eventually people will move to hard assets altogether as they are losing confidence in paper assets.  Dr. Paul was asked, “Do you think protectionism will lead to a crash in the international monetary system? He replied, “Nothing good can come of it. Even short run trade benefits leads to a weaker economy and higher prices. It doesn't solve the problem they won't face the truth. That is that all governments spend too much money, there is too much debt and they get away with it by taxing people”. “It seems that all we have is more debt, more printing money, and more government interventions. Governments won’t even talk cutting things. They only want to make slight decreases of proposed increases in their budgets!” On the next U.S. Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew, Paul says, “We don't need an intervener.  He should have a strong dollar policy by defining it, and not by propping up the market. Don't devalue a currency. It is then that you hurt savers and cost of living goes up. This only damages the middle class and the poor no matter what welfare programmes you have because they lose purchasing power.” Dr. Paul says that he feels the Obama administration is trying to devalue the dollar, they are very different then sound people and different then the Austrian economists. They feel debt is ok. The interviewer noted that the gold standard has not immunized us from financial crisis. Dr. Paul retorts, “If you look at it over several years it does maintain money. There were flaws with the gold standard, during wars, there were problems in the past and we understand so much more today and we could do better.” “If you think we need a wiser Federal Reserve, central economic planning for the manipulation of credit, or a better Treasury Secretary, I reject that. “ After all, Ron Paul says for over 6000 years of history gold is always money and paper money fails.  IMF Russia Gold in Million Fine Troy Oz, Monthly – (Bloomberg) Russia buys gold to protect against “cataclysm with the dollar, euro, pound or any other reserve currency" Not only has Putin made Russia the world’s largest oil producer, he’s also made it the biggest gold buyer. His central bank has added 570 metric tons of the metal in the past decade, a quarter more than runner-up China, according to IMF data compiled by Bloomberg. The added gold is also almost triple the weight of the Statue of Liberty. “The more gold a country has, the more sovereignty it will have if there’s a cataclysm with the dollar, the euro, the pound or any other reserve currency,” Evgeny Fedorov, a lawmaker for Putin’s United Russia party in the lower house of parliament, said in a telephone interview in Moscow. Gold, coveted by Russian rulers including Tsar Nicholas II and the Bolshevik leader whose forces assassinated him, Vladimir Lenin, has soared almost 400% in the period of Putin’s purchases. Central banks around the world have printed money to escape the global financial crisis, sapping investor appetite for dollars and euros and setting off a scramble for safety. In 1998, the year Russia defaulted on $40 billion of domestic debt, it took as many as 28 barrels of crude to buy an ounce of gold, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That ratio tumbled to 11.5 by the time Putin first came to power a year later and in 2005, after it touched 6.5 -- less than half what it is now -- the president told the central bank to buy. NEWS     Gold ticks up in holiday-thinned trade - Reuters  Silver Climbs as Gold Little Changed Before Euro Finance Meeting - Bloomberg Gold edges higher as dollar weakens – Market Watch Putin Turns Black Gold Into Bullion as Russia Out-Buys World - Bloomberg Venezuelan devaluation sparks panic – The Financial Times COMMENTARY Video - Ron Paul: Are We in a Currency War? - BloombergVenezuela Launches First Nuke In Currency Wars, Devalues Currency By 46% - Zero Hedge No One Knows How Much Gold China's Central Bank Is Buying – Seeking Alpha How Much Gold Does China Really Have? – Money Morning Economist Predicts Higher Gold Prices In 2013 - Lower Thereafter – CME Group   For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

15 января 2013, 04:38

How to Lose Your Entire Savings In an Instant

  By the look of things, Europe’s banking system is breaking down again.   Bankia’s shareholders have received a nasty new year’s surprise. They may lose most of their investments or even all of them says the Spanish bank rescue fund in its latest report.   According to FROB, the Fund for Orderly Bank Restructuring, Bankia has a negative value of 4.2 billion euros, and its parent group BFA is 10.4 bn in the red.   Valuation is key in the recapitalisation of Spain’s banking system, weighed down by massive bad loans accumulated in a property bubble that burst in 2008. Bankia/BFA is set to receive 18 bn euros of European aid, and become the country’s biggest bailout recipient.   http://www.euronews.com/2012/12/27/bankia-worthless-says-new-report/   Greece’s four largest banks need to boost their capital by 27.5 billion euros ($36.3 billion) after taking losses from the country’s debt swap earlier this year, the largest sovereign restructuring in history.        National Bank of Greece SA, the country’s biggest lender, needs to raise 9.8 billion euros, according to an e-mailed report by the Athens-based Bank of Greece (TELL) today. Eurobank Ergasias SA (EUROB) needs 5.8 billion euros, Alpha Bank (ALPHA) needs 4.6 billion euros and Piraeus Bank SA (TPEIR) needs 7.3 billion euros, according to the report. Total recapitalization needs for the country’s banking sector amount to 40.5 billion euros, the report said.   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-27/greek-bank-capital-needs-at-eu27-5-billion-bank-of-greece-says.html   The above articles tell us point blank that Europe’s banking crisis is neither fixed nor even close to over.   Consider the article on Spain.   A little known fact about the Spanish crisis is that when the Spanish Government merges troubled banks, it typically swaps out depositors’ savings for shares in the new bank.   So… when the newly formed bank goes bust, “poof” your savings are GONE. Not gone as in some Spanish version of the FDIC will eventually get you your money, but gone as in gone forever.   This is why Bankia’s collapse is so significant: in one move, former depositors at seven banks just lost virtually everything. In the case of Greece, the above article needs some perspective. Sure, €27.5 billion sounds like a lot of money, but just how big is it relative to Greece’s banks.   The entire capital base of the Greek banking system is only €22 billion.   By saying that Greek banks need €27.5 billion Greece is essentially admitting that is needs to recapitalize its entire banking system. Also, you should know that Greek banks are still sitting on €46.8 billion in bad loans.   There is a word for a banking system with a capital base of €22 billion and bad loans of €46.8. It’s INSOLVENT.   Take note, the EU Crisis is anything but over. The ECB may have pushed it back by a year by promising unlimited bond buying… but that relief rally is coming to an end.   With that in mind, smart investors are taking advantage of the lull in the markets to position themselves for what’s coming.   We offer several FREE Special Reports designed to help them do this. They include:   Preparing Your Portfolio For Obama’s Economic Nightmare What Europe’s Crisis Means For You and Your Savings   How to Protect Yourself From Inflation   And last but not least…   Bullion 101: Everything You Need to Know About Investing in Gold and Silver Bullion…   You can pick up free copies of all of the above at:   http://gainspainscapital.com/   Best   Phoenix Capital Research