На одно мгновение показалось, что Китай возвращается к маоистскому управлению экономики.
На одно мгновение показалось, что Китай возвращается к маоистскому управлению экономики.
Anbang founder Wu Xiaohui and billionaire Xiao Jianhua had expressed interest in lender
Two weeks ago, when discussing the troubles plaguing one of China's conglomerates and "boldest dealmaker", HNA Group - recently best known for acquiring Anthony Scaramucci's SkyBridge capital in a transaction that has yet to close - we said that what until recently was one of the world's most aggressive roll-ups of varied companies from around the globe, including stakes in Hilton Companies and Deutsche Bank, as well as countless Chinese acquisitions, could very soon become the "reverse roll-up from hell", as the stock price of HNA tumbled, putting the roughly $24 billion in loans that had been taken against HNA stock in jeopardy of breachin their LTV limits, forcing a massive margin call, and potential firesale liquidation of the company's assets as shown in the chart below... ... which have been hit with the double whammy of various rating agency downgrades in recent months, further eroding the collateral value of HNA's various assets. Yet while the fate of HNA's conglomerate future still remains largely in the hands of the market, which could easily prompt a firesale if it were to push HNA stock low enough, another Chinese conglomerate may not have the benefit of the market's potential generosity, because according to Bloomberg, Chinese authorities have asked HNA's peer, Anbang Insurance Group, the insurer whose chairman was recently detained in June and was classified as a potential "systemic risk" to China's economy, to sell its overseas assets. In addition to demand a liquidation of many if not all assets acquired by Anbang over the past three years, the government also asked the company - whose Chairman will surely comply following his brief "detention" - to bring the proceeds back to China after disposing of holdings abroad, suggesting not only growing concerns about Chinese capital outflows, but Beijing's apparent intention to undo the massive Chinese M&A wave that swept the globe from 2014 through most of 2016, and led to the infamous "Chinese acquisition premium." Bloomberg notes that it is not clear yet how Anbang will respond, and in a WeChat message, the insurer said that “Anbang at present has no plans to sell its overseas assets," although that is sure to change once Beijing asks again, less politely this time. "Currently, Anbang’s various businesses and operations are all normal, and the company has ample cash and sufficient solvency capabilities.” Anbang, together with HNA, Wanda and Fosun, were the four most prominent Chinese conglomerates which unleashed a buying binge across the globe, fueled by soaring sales of investment-type insurance policies. Since 2015, the four companies completed a combined $55 billion in overseas acquisitions, 18% of Chinese companies’ total, and according to some, were instrumental in accelerating China's capital outflows over the same period. Anbang first emerged in the public arena with its high profile 2014 acquisition of New York’s Waldorf Astoria hotel. Subsequently, Anbang and its peers acquired such trophy assets as AC Milan, Legendary film studios and Hilton Worldwide. Anbang alone made billions in acquisitions in such businesses as the Westin St. Francis, InterContinental Miami, Rabobank's mortgage portfolio and various other M&A targets around the globe. However, it all ended with a thud in mid-June, when Anbang Chairman Wu Xiaohui was detained for questioning, while the policies fueling the company's growth have been all but banned by regulators. At this moment Anbang is merely a shell corporation, with virtually no new business creation, one whose massive debt load threatens to careen the company soon if it does not find sources of cheap liquidity and fast. At a twice-a-decade conference on financial regulation convened by President Xi Jinping this month, policy makers pledged to rein in corporate borrowing and said that preventing systemic risk was an “eternal theme.” Making matters worse is that Anbang’s rise in recent years was fueled by sales of lucrative wealth-management products that offered among the highest yields compared with peers, a key spoke of China's $9 trillion shadow banking universe. China’s insurance regulator this year started clamping down on what it termed “improper innovation” and tightened rules on high-yield, short-term investment policies. Anbang and other aggressive insurers such as Foresea Life got caught up in the crackdown. Where Anbang's death spiral could turn especially aggressive, is if Anbang customers start surrendering their policies and stop buying new ones, a feedback loop that would accelerate a continuing cash drain at the company, while forcing its existing product suite of wealth products to default, leading to the biggest risk facing China's economy: a shadow bank run. One Anbang product, called Anbang Longevity Sure Win No. 1, boosted the firm’s life insurance premiums almost 40-fold in 2014 by offering yields as high as 5.8 percent. That helped provide fuel for the firm’s more than $10 billion of overseas acquisitions since 2014 and equally ambitious investing in the domestic stock market. If investors realize that not only China's M&A party is over, but that the shadow banking sector is facing a potential default cliff, the scramble to recover invested capital will be unprecedented. For now, Anbang can delay the inevitable cash call by following Beijing's demands, and slowly - at first- begin liquidating its trophy offshore assets, and repatriating the proceeds, effectively inverting the outbound M&A surge that marked the past three years. The good news is that at least at this moment, there are plenty of willing buyers for the upcoming Anbang firesale..
Брат советника и зятя Дональда Трампа Джареда Кушнера — успешный венчурный капиталист. Его жизнь стала сложнее после того, как фамилию Кушнер начали ассоциировать с 45-м президентом США
Компания Wanda Group, один из крупнейших китайских покупателей зарубежных активов, объявила о продаже отелей и туристических объектов компании-конкуренту. Сделка является крупнейшей в истории китайского рынка недвижимости.
В пятницу, 23 июня, азиатские фондовые индексы продемонстрировали преимущественно положительную динамику по итогам торговой сессии. Стоит отметить, что в первой половине торговой сессии фондовый рынок Китая находился под давлением после того, как регулятор банковского сектора Поднебесной приказал кредиторам провести проверку задолженностей крупных конгломератов, включая компании Anbang Insurance Group и Dalian Wanda Group. Из макроэкономической статистики в Японии был опубликован индекс деловой активности в промышленности, составивший в июне 52 пункта по сравнению с 53,1 пунктами в мае. Аналитики прогнозировали показатель на уровне 53,4 пункта. В Сингапуре был обнародован индекс потребительских цен, который в мае вырос на 1,4% г/г, что совпало с ожиданиями экономистов. Помимо этого, вышли данные по производству в обрабатывающей промышленности, которое в мае резко упало на 3,5% против прогноза -0,7%.
Москва, 22 июня - "Вести.Экономика". Котировки ряда крупнейших компаний Китая обвалились после предупреждения со стороны финансового регулятора о том, что некоторые крупные компании могут представлять "системные риски" для экономики КНР. Официальные представители Комиссии по регулированию банковской деятельности на брифинге в четверг заявили о том, что регулятор оценивает "системные риски ряда крупнейших предприятий". Об этом в четверг сообщили ряд СМИ.
Котировки ряда крупнейших компаний Китая обвалились после предупреждения со стороны финансового регулятора о том, что некоторые крупные компании могут представлять "системные риски" для экономики КНР.
Доминирование Китая в сети Bitcoin невероятно беспокоит техно-либертарианских пуритан цифровой валюты, которые опасаются, что концентрация цифровой власти во второй по величине экономике в мире угрожает подорвать демократический характер криптовалюты.
The dramatic rise of Anbang's owner Wu Xiaohui, arrested by China's anti-graft authorities this week, had baffled industry experts. James Kynge talks to the FT's Lucy Hornby in Beijing about Mr Wu's detention and its implications for business
As reported earlier this week, overnight Bloomberg confirmed that Wu Xiaohui, the chairman of China's insurance conglomerate which recently made headlines in the US for nearly reaching a deal with Jared Kushner over 666 Fifth Ave., was detained by a joint team of Central Commission for "Discipline Inspection" and police for questioning. It adds that that Chinese investigators who detained Wu are carrying out a wide probe that includes looking into the sources of funding for the firm’s acquisitions overseas, possible market manipulation by insurers, and “economic crimes." The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that investigators were een checking whether Wu - whose fortune last year was calculated to be just over $1 billion - was involved in bribery and other economic crimes at Anbang and that Wu couldn't be contacted for comment. As noted on Wednesday, Anbang said Wu couldn’t perform his duties for personal reasons, a story which has since been disproved. The authorities are said to be examining Anbang transactions including acquisitions overseas and their funding. According to Bloomberg;s sources, the probe also fits into a broader investigation of possible market manipulation by insurers, although they didn’t specifically define the term “economic crimes.” The action is the result of the government’s crackdown on a sector that is "supposed to help families and companies cut their financial risks, but has recently become a hub for rampant financial speculation." Yet while Wu's fate now appears sealed, swallowed by China and unlikely to reemerge any time soon if ever, questions have emerged about the viability of Anbang Insurance Group itself, which as the NYT reported overnight, has seen its growth come to a "screeching halt" as Chinese investors who helped fund its meteoric rise no longer want to have anything to do with the politically connected company which is "no longer in Beijing’s good graces." Specifically, according to government data released on Thursday, Anbang’s sales of life insurance policies and investment products, an key source of cash, stopped almost completely in April after tumbling sharply in March. It wasn't just Anbang: across the insurance industry, where the (ab)use of Wealth Management Products is prevalent, sales slowed in April compared with earlier in the year. More details: From January through March of this year, Anbang raised three-fifths as much money as it raised all of last year, government data shows. It has maintained a large stockpile of cash after a series of big investments fell apart, including a $14 billion bid for Starwood Hotels and Resorts and a deal for a Manhattan office tower with Kushner Companies, the family real estate firm partly owned by Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of President Trump and an administration adviser. But Anbang’s latest figures are eye-catching for the opposite reason. Including new kinds of policies and wealth management products, it took in only $218 million in April this year, down from $5.92 billion in the same month last year, the government data on Thursday showed. That was the biggest Y/Y collapse in the company's premium income on record, and as a result Anbang is now under "acute" financial pressure. The NYT notes that "its revenue from existing life insurance policies and certain wealth management products was down 88 percent in April compared with the same month the previous year. The rest of the industry was up 4.5 percent in the same period." While largely ignored on the list of potential Chinese risk factors, Anbang's troubles could soon become systemic. In early May, Chinese insurance regulators ordered Anbang to stop selling two investment products. One, they said, was improperly marketed as long-term insurance while a crucial application for the other lacked an actuary’s signature. By that point, Anbang was already in trouble. Questions about Anbang’s financial strength had begun circulating on social media in China in March and April, as Chinese officials publicly raised questions about sales of wealth management products by some insurers. If the drop in revenue is steep enough, Anbang could eventually be forced to liquidate assets. A big factor will be what happens with its existing policies and investment products, which comprise China's shadow banking system. As the NYT adds, Anbang’s annual report provides little information on the monthly tempo at which its previously issued investments are maturing. The company might need to pay them out if they are not rolled over into further investments with the company. The company’s policies do have very stiff penalties on early redemption to discourage holders from turning them in early for cash. Anbang could raise money by selling some of its investments, but that could take time. Additionally, the conglomerate, which over the past 3 years was nothing short of the world's most aggressive "roll up" has been an active investor in Western hedge funds, in addition to making outright acquisitions of overseas companies. And those terms tend to impose severe limits on Anbang’s ability to ask for its money back quickly. That said, a firesale of Anbang assets, which include the Waldorf Astoria, should be a fascinating event. The biggest risk from a potential unwind of Anbang, however, is the fate of its billions in WMP "assets" and whether any troubles at the insurer lead to investor impairment, and a potential run on China's $8.5 billion "shadow bank" considered by many as the Achilles heel of China's massively overlevered financial system.
Zerohedge.com: Сын китайского “большого генерала” рассказал о том, что стоит за оттоком капитала из Китая
В течение последнего года две темы, связанные с Китаем, периодически привлекали внимание медиа: первая тема – которую мы осветили в начале марта – связана с волной странных сделок M&A в этой стране. Как мы поясняли тогда, многочисленные китайские корпорации в… читать далее → Запись Zerohedge.com: Сын китайского “большого генерала” рассказал о том, что стоит за оттоком капитала из Китая впервые появилась .