08 апреля, 18:18

Firms touted as 'top employers' for women pay them less than men

Almost half of companies listed as best places to work as a woman report gender pay gap greater than national averageAlmost half of the companies included on a list of businesses feted as the best places to work as a woman in the UK have a gender pay gap higher than the national average, exclusive Guardian analysis has revealed.Of the subsidiaries of companies included on the Times Top 50 Employers for Women list in 2017, more than nine in 10 pay women less than they pay men on average, with almost half of the companies reporting a gender pay gap greater than 18.4% – the national average as calculated by the Office of National Statistics. Continue reading...

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28 марта, 10:00

Неизвестный Берия

Что нам известно о  Лаврентии Берии?  Стараниями всевозможных информаторов,  начиная с хрущевских времен, неизвестный Берия - это: «чудовище», «чистки», «лагеря», «ликвидация», «заговор», «расстрел»… А как было на самом деле? Что нам подтверждают документы, извлеченные из закрытых до времени архивов,  и воспоминания тех людей, которые близко работали c Л.Берией, и которым сейчас нет нужды подстраиваться под господствующее  […] Сообщение Неизвестный Берия появились сначала на ВОПРОСИК.

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21 марта, 19:07

Anglo American considers acquisitions and new projects

London-listed miner’s debt under control as chief executive eyes future growth

21 марта, 14:31

Основные фондовые индексы Европы торгуются смешанно

Европейские рынки демонстрируют смешанную динамику в среду утром, в то время, как инвесторы ожидали вероятного повышения процентных ставок в США позже сегодня. Сводный европейский индекс Stoxx 600 упал примерно на 0,15 процента во время утренних сделок, с секторами и крупными биржами, указывающими в противоположных направлениях. Акции сектора основных ресурсов в Европе были худшими исполнителями вскоре после открытия рынков, снизившись на 0,75 процента на фоне повышенных опасений мировой торговой войны. Ожидается, что президент Дональд Трамп озвучит решение о введении 60 млрд. долл. США ввозных пошлин на китайские товары к концу торговой недели. Инвесторы обеспокоены тем, что надвигающиеся тарифы могут перерасти в полномасштабную торговую войну, угрожая глобальному экономическому росту. Акции Hydro, Anglo American и Glencore потеряли более 1,2 процента. Сектор коммунальных услуг возглавил рост в среду, увеличившись более чем на 0,5 процента на фоне резких изменений в рейтингах. Keper Chevreux в среду утром пересмотрел с повышением целевые цены на акции итальянской A2A и немецкой E.ON, отправив акции каждой компании на 2 процента выше. Ubisoft поднялась на вершину европейского индекса после того, как председатель Vivendi Винсент Боллор проиграл двухлетнюю битву с ее учредителями. Французская медиагруппа Vivendi объявила о планах продать свою долю в создателе видеоигр за 2 миллиарда евро ($ 2,45 миллиарда) в среду. Акции Ubisoft выросли более чем на 4,5 процента на новостях. Второй по величине розничный торговец товаров для дома в Европе упал на дно индекса после заявлений о смешанном прогнозе группы. Kingfisher опубликовал более благоприятный, чем ожидалось, рост годовой прибыли в среду, но сказал, что более «неопределенное» будущее вызывает озабоченность. Его акции снизились на 8 процентов. В Азии акции выросли после недавних потерь. Крупнейший индекс акций Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона, за исключением Японии, MSCI, вырос на 0,5 процента, после роста на Уолл-стрит. Инвесторы, вероятно, убеждены, что Федеральная резервная система повысит процентные ставки до 1,75 процента против 1,5 процента в среду. Однако рынки менее уверены в том, сколько еще ожидать повышений в этом году. Ожидается, что центральный банк США будет сигнализировать о трех или четырех дальнейших повышениях ставок за год в целом. На текущий момент: Индекс Цена Изменение, пункты Изменения в % FTSE 7033.99 -27.28 -0.39% DAX 12324.25 16.92 0.14% CAC 5246.41 -6.02 -0.12% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

19 марта, 14:37

Основные фондовые индексы Европы снижаются

Европейские рынки ослабли в понедельник утром, в то время как инвесторы настраивались на торговую неделю, в рамках которой Федеральная резервная система может повысить процентные ставки. Общеевропейский Stoxx 600 снизился на 0,7 процента во время утренних сделок, причем почти все сектора и крупные биржи были на отрицательной территории. Акции сектора технологий возглавили убытки, снизившись более чем на 2 процента на фоне новостей от британской технической фирмы Micro Focus. Компания заявила, что ее генеральный директор был уволен из-за текущих проблем с недавней покупкой активов Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Micro Focus также сократила свой годовой прогноз доходов на 2018 год, что привело к обвалу акций более чем на 55 процентов. Акции сектора базовых ресурсов также торговались с понижением на 1,6% на фоне повышенных опасений в связи с торговой войной. Эта тема, вероятно, станет топом повестки дня на двухдневной встрече «Большой двадцатки», которая начнется в Аргентине позднее в понедельник, и любой признак эскалации напряженности между Вашингтоном и Пекином, вероятно, заставит инвесторов в Азии все больше нервничать. Акции Anglo American, Rio Tinto и Antofagasta упали на 2,5 процента. Глядя на отдельные акции, французский торговый центр Klepierre заявил в понедельник, что он сделал предложение о покупке британского конкурента Hammerson, сообщает Reuters. Британская фирма отклонила предложение, отправив акции более чем на 23 процента выше в понедельник утром. Тем временем, акции Barclays выросли более чем на 4,5 процента после того, как Sherbone приобрела права голоса на 5,16 процента выпущенного акционерного капитала британского банка. Ожидается, что в среду центральный банк США повысит процентные ставки до 1,75 процента против 1,5 процента. ФРС также может сигнализировать о том, что в течение оставшейся части года может реализовать еще три повышения ставок. Помимо этого, в Европе участники переговоров из Великобритании и ЕС соберутся в Брюсселе на переговорах по Брекзиту перед саммитом ЕС в конце недели. На текущий момент: Индекс Цена Изменение, пункты Изменения в % FTSE 7072.69 -91.45 -1.28% DAX 12277.75 -111.83 -0.90% CAC 5244.77 -37.98 -0.72% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

19 марта, 14:00

Global Stocks, Futures Slide Amid Rate Hike Fears, Political Jitters

Global stocks and S&P futures point to a lower open on Monday and as Mark Cudmore noted earlier this morning, there are plenty of potential catalysts: sudden concerns about global growth rolling over, the slide in Apple suppliers which hit Asian stocks following a report that Apple is developing its own microLED screen, Trump's trade war, this weekend's McCabe firing, the ongoing personnel turnover in the White House,  Abe's record low popularity amid Japan’s land scandal, lack of Brexit clarity, Italy’s struggle to form a government, Facebook sliding on data breach concerns, Russia’s spat with the U.K., upcoming concerns about this Wednesday's Fed meeting, ongoing Brexit talks and today's G-20 gathering, and so on. In fact, the proper question is why the market didn't notice any or all of these rising concerns before. Well, they did notice this morning, and world stocks are a sea of red this morning, stuck on their worst run since November on Monday, as caution gripped traders in a week in which the Federal Reserve is likely to raise U.S. interest rates and perhaps signal as many as three more hikes lie in store this year... ... while U.S. equity futures sell led by Nasdaq as e-mini S&P futures break below 50-DMA, with FANG stocks under pressure the pre-market trading led by Facebook (-2.5%) after weekend reports of data breach scandal, helping push the VIX above 17. A 1% drop for Europe’s main bourses amid a flurry of gloomy company news and weaker Wall Street futures meant MSCI’s world stocks index was down for a fifth day running. The biggest risk event this week for global markets is the first U.S. interest rate decision under new Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It comes just weeks after he hinted to investors that he’s open to lifting the policy rate four times this year, rather than the three currently reflected in dot-plot forecasts. Some Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect the median projection to rise to four on Wednesday, while others say there will be no change following a round of mediocre data and policy makers’ stated intentions to move gradually. “Expected is a confident Fed Chair, both with respect to the economy’s strength and the Fed’s approach to policy,” said analysts at Westpac in a note. “While growth forecasts and the distribution of rate projections are likely to drift up, the median Fed funds forecast should remain unchanged at three in 2018 and three more in 2019,” they added. “Gradual and timely are the operative words for policy.” Analysts at JPMorgan, however, see a risk the Fed might not only add one more rate rise for this year but for 2019 as well. “The worst case is the ‘18 and ‘19 dots both move up - the Fed is currently guiding to five hikes in ‘18 and ‘19 combined but under this scenario that would shift to seven hikes,” they warned in a note to clients. “Stocks would probably tolerate one net dot increase over ‘18 and ‘19 but a bump in both years could create problems.” Furthermore, trade war concerns also remain front and center, especially after Sunday's bizarre snafu in which Treasury official David Malpass said he misspoke hours after claiming the U.S. was pulling out of decade-old formal economic talks with Beijing. This happened on the same day the PBOC announced its new head. Trade will be top of the agenda at a two-day G20 meeting starting later on Monday in Buenos Aires and any signs of escalating stress between the U.S. and China could make investors in Asia nervous. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for its first drop in three days as technology companies slumped with miners. Earlier, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks also fell, with tech shares under pressure with Bloomberg reporting that Apple was poised to disrupt its supply chain. The yen strengthened amid a huge drop in support for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet following the Moritomo land scandal, ironically prompting a flight to safety which is, well, the Yen.  Japan's Nikkei ended down 1 percent amid a firmer JPY and as support for PM Abe’s administration slumped to 33% (Prev. 45%) in the wake of the land-sale scandal. KOSPI (-0.8%) suffered losses in its top-weighted stocks in which Samsung Electronics fell on news Apple is to develop displays to replace Samsung screens, while Hyundai Motor was hit by a stateside investigation into fatal incidents involving airbag failure which could affect a total of 425K Hyundai and Kia cars. Hang Seng (flat) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were indecisive and traded choppy amid mixed property data from China, a neutral PBoC open market operation and after China signaled stable monetary policy continuity as it chose PBoC Deputy Governor Yi Gang to be the next central bank hea In FX, the dollar initially made ground on the euro, though, as bond traders saw the gap between 10-year German and U.S. government yields, referred to as the ‘transatlantic spread’, ratchet out to its widest since December 2016. Cable was a big outperformer rising back over 1.40 as expectations for yet another Brexit transition deal are priced in; meanwhile EMFX continue their recent slide against USD. Key FX moves from BBG: The pound jumped on speculation of some sort of a deal being done between the U.K. and the EU. GBP/USD jumps as high as 1.4046, the highest since Feb. 26; joint U.K.-EU press conference due later Monday The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed; it closed higher for a fourth week on Friday, its longest streak of gains in five months; should it advance this week, it would be the best run for the greenback since July 2015; 10-year Treasury yield rises 2 bps to 2.86% USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 106.08, after falling to 105.68; the pair was also affected during Asia trading by macro account sales of the euro against the yen, according to an Asia-based FX trader In key overnight developments, the ECB’s Weidmann said he thinks that good economy developments and inflation would permit a rapid end to bond purchases, while the ECB’s Villeroy commented that the progress to inflation target was slower than anticipated. In Brexit-related news, the UK Brexit Select Committee is set to recommend that the UK should request an extension to the EU's Article 50 process beyond March 2019. Separately, according to an HIS Markit survey, household incomes are rising at near their fastest pace since the financial crisis in 2009 with some speculating this could force the BoE to lift rates again soon.  The UK’s BCC has raised its GDP forecast for 2018 from 1.1% to 1.4% and in 2019 from 1.3% to 1.5%. Its first forecast for 2020 is for 1.6% growth. S&P affirmed Austria at AA+; Outlook Stable and affirmed Denmark at AAA; Outlook Stable. Fitch affirmed Italy at BBB; Outlook Stable. As widely expected, Vladimir Putin has won the Russian Presidential election with a landslide victory. Japan PM Abe reportedly asked South Korea President Moon to help set up a meeting with North Korea Leader Kim. White House said that US President Trump told South Korean President Moon that still on track to meet with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim by May. UK, France and Germany have proposed new EU sanctions on Iran to aim to keep US President Trump committed to the Iranian nuclear deal, while reports added that sanctions would target individuals involved in ballistic weapons activity and war in Syria. Looking at the commodities complex, WTI (-0.6%) and Brent (-0.7%) are pressured by concerns of oversupply arising as US drilling activity increases. The weekly Baker Hughes rig count added four oil rigs on Friday bringing the total oil rig number to 800 compared to 631 a year ago.  Moving on to metals, Gold (-0.1%) continued to edge lower on a firmer dollar but has seen a slight bounce in recent trade. Dalian iron ore fell by 4% to its lowest level since November weighed by high inventories and weaker steel demand. On today's relatively quiet calendar, Oracle is set to report quarterly numbers, while no major economic data is expected. Bulletin Headline summary from RanSquawk European bourses started the week on a poor footing (Eurostoxx 50 -1.0%) as investors anticipate a hawkish Fed meeting later this week. GBP seen higher amid reports that the EU have agreed on the broad terms of UK transition deal Looking ahead, today’s session sees a lack of tier 1 highlights  Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 2,737.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 374.71 MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.6% to 177.14 MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan down 0.4% to 584.33 Nikkei down 0.9% to 21,480.90 Topix down 1% to 1,719.97 Hang Seng Index up 0.04% to 31,513.76 Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,279.25 Sensex down 0.8% to 32,925.00 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,959.43 Kospi down 0.8% to 2,475.03 German 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 0.577% Euro down 0.2% to $1.2272 Italian 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.725% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 1.368% Brent Futures down 0.5% to $65.86/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,309.82 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.07% to 90.30 Top Overnight News U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Malpass says he was incorrect in saying that the U.S. had ended formal economic dialogue with Beijing; Mnuchin continues to hold private discussions with Chinese officials EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom will visit Commerce Secretary Ross on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, AFP reports, citing people familiar ECB: bond market liquidity has not deteriorated, despite the buildup of PSPP holdings over time; only some increased volatility when the net monthly volume was reduced White House lawyer Cobb says Trump is not considering firing Mueller Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe saw his support tumble in weekend opinion polls as public anger continues to rise over a cronyism scandal. A top Treasury Department official said he was incorrect in saying that the U.S. had ended formal economic dialogue with Beijing, adding that Secretary Steven Mnuchin continues to hold private discussions with China. China named Yi Gang to run its central bank, elevating a long-serving deputy governor with deep international links to the forefront of efforts to clean up the nation’s financial sector and modernize monetary policy. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and 44 other associations are urging President Donald Trump not to impose sweeping tariffs in response to China’s trade practices. Brexit negotiators want to secure a written promise of a transition deal from the European Union at a key summit this week, to help reassure businesses that they will get the grace period they desperately want. The U.K.government will consider further action against Russia this week after it accused Moscow of stockpiling the Novichok nerve agent. Vladimir Putin cruised to a landslide victory in Russia’s presidential vote, extending his 18-year rule amid escalating confrontation with the West. Asian equity markets traded mixed with the region indecisive ahead of a widely anticipated Fed rate hike this week. ASX 200 (+0.2%) finished positive as strength in energy kept the index afloat, while Nikkei 225 (-1.0%) underperformed amid a firmer JPY and as support for PM Abe’s administration slumped to 33% (Prev. 45%) in the wake of the land-sale scandal. KOSPI (-0.8%) suffered losses in its top-weighted stocks in which Samsung Electronics fell on news Apple is to develop displays to replace Samsung screens, while Hyundai Motor was hit by a stateside investigation into fatal incidents involving airbag failure which could affect a total of 425K Hyundai and Kia cars. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were indecisive and traded choppy amid mixed property data from China, a neutral PBoC open market operation and after China signalled stable monetary policy continuity as it chose PBoC Deputy Governor Yi Gang to be the next central bank head. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat amid an indecisive risk-tone in the region, while an unsurprising Summary of Opinions release and unchanged Rinban announcement also kept prices range-bound. As such, Japanese yields were mixed while their US counterparts were higher ahead of the FOMC in which the US 2-year yield rose to its highest since 2008. Top Asian News Putin Claims Mandate on Record Vote Amid Conflict With West China Names Yi Gang as First New PBOC Governor in 15 Years Noble Group Braces for First Bond Default as Pressure Mounts Modi’s Anti-Graft Image Under Fire on $2 Billion India Fraud Singapore MAS Imposes Penalties on Stanchart Bank, Trust European bourses started the week on a poor footing (Eurostoxx 50 -1.0%) after a mixed Asian session, as investors anticipate a hawkish Fed meeting later this week. Energy and materials are amongst the worst performing sectors as concerns of US drilling activity points to higher output. Mining names are feeling the pressure from a firmer dollar with Antofagasta (-2.9%), Anglo American (2.8%), BHP (-2.7%), Rio (-2.2%) all seen at the foot of the FTSE 100. On the flip side, the financial sector is outperforming with Barclays (+3.6%) higher after reports that activist investor, Sherborne Investors have acquired a 5.2% stake in the bank. Additionally, SocGen (+0.65%) is providing some support to the sector after the Co. said they expect resolution over the LIBOR probe in the coming weeks. Separately, sources stated the company is applying for a banking license in Australia. In terms of individual movers, Hammerson shares leapt 26% after the Co. rejected a GBP 5bln offer from French retail property developer Klepierre (-4.0%). Micro Focus (-50.6%) plummeted to the bottom of the Stoxx 600 following a double whammy from worse than expected revenue outlook and the departure of their short-lived CEO. Top European News Italy’s Di Maio Appeals to His Voters as He Seeks to End Impasse Micro Focus Shares Collapse After Sales Warning and CEO Exit GKN’s Rival Suitors Offer Incentives to Win Investor Support Barclays in Activist Crosshairs as Bramson Takes 5.2% Stake In FX, the greenback started off firmer with the DXY above the 90.00 level after last Friday’s stronger than expected Industrial Production and ahead of a widely expected rate hike from the Fed. This pressured its counterparts across the board with commodity-linked currencies also kept subdued by weakness in the metals complex, while USD/HKD rose to print a fresh 33yr high. Conversely, JPY was the exception and outpaced the USD amid the indecisive risk-tone and after USD/JPY failed to hold onto the 106.00 handle. However, in the last hour of trading, the USD has given up virtually all gains and the BBG Dollar index was back to session lows. In Commodity prices were lacklustre overnight in which WTI crude futures pulled back from Friday’s gains and briefly slipped to below USD 62/bbl. Elsewhere, gold languished as the greenback remained firm ahead of the looming FOMC, while copper extended on last week’s lows alongside the indecisive risk tone and early weakness in Chinese metals prices in which Dalian iron ore futures slipped over 3% shortly after the open. In commodities, WTI (-0.6%) and Brent (-0.7%) are pressured by concerns of oversupply arising as US drilling activity increases. The weekly Baker Hughes rig count added four oil rigs on Friday bringing the total oil rig number to 800 compared to 631 a year ago. Russian Energy Minister Novak affirmed pledge to see OPEC production deal through to the end and reiterated that Russia is willing to extend cuts if necessary, while he added that Russia is open to discussing phase-out from the deal when appropriate. Moving on to metals, Gold (-0.1%) continued to edge lower on a firmer dollar but has seen a slight bounce in recent trade. Dalian iron ore fell by 4% to its lowest level since November weighed by high inventories and weaker steel demand . On today's global calendar, the commencement of the two-day G20 finance ministers meeting should be the highlight on Monday, while the expected announcement by China's NPC for the PBOC governor role will also be closely watched. Meanwhile the UK's David Davis and EU's Michal Barnier are due to meet in Brussels with the meeting bringing possible clues about an agreement on the terms of Brexit transition. It should be a fairly quiet start to the week for data with UK and China house prices data due overnight, followed by the January trade balance for the Euro area. There is no data due in the US however the Fed's Bostic is slated to speak in the afternoon. US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled 9:40am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on  Community Reinvestment Act DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap If markets were feeling a little indecisive last week given the unpredictable spate of headlines which seemed to come from the White House on an almost daily basis then there’s good news as we have the welcome distraction of a Fed meeting this week. Indeed, Wednesday’s meeting is the focal point for markets over the next five days – not least because it is Fed Chair Powell’s debut - although there are a few other potentially interesting events for us to look forward to including today’s two-day G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers, the conclusion of China’s NPC tomorrow, the global flash PMIs and UK/ EU summit on Thursday and yet another US government funding deadline due up on Friday. So plenty to keep markets interested. In terms of the Fed, the consensus view amongst economists is for a 25bp rate hike and that’s reflected in the market with fed funds contracts fully pricing that in. With that likely as good as done our US economists believe that there are three key questions going into the meeting that we should be asking. The first is: does the committee still see risks as “roughly balanced”. The second is: will the median dots move up, and in particular, will they signal four rate hikes this year. The third is: how will the new chairman perform in the press conference, and what changes in style/messaging might he signal? In summary, the team expect the answer to the first question to be that the Committee sounds a bit more upbeat (though not yet worried) about inflation developments, and a message on economic activity that is little changed. They also expect the Committee to raise growth forecasts and lower unemployment forecasts. In terms of the second question, their view is that we see the median dot move to 4 hikes from 3. However, this is likely to be a close call. Perhaps of more interest will be the terminal rate though. The team expect the terminal rate forecast to rise to 3.3% in 2020 from 3.1% in the December forecast. As for the third question and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference, on substance, they expect Powell’s message to centre on the signs of an overheating economy, and that the Fed’s current tightening action is clearly in order. This would signal that another rate hike is on the way in June. Away from the Fed, the market will most likely be interested in the rhetoric and debate around protectionism and free trade at today’s G20 meeting with the world seemingly on the brink of a trade war. Ahead of it, Bloomberg reported over the weekend that the US was withdrawing from economic dialogue with Beijing with Treasury’s undersecretary for international affairs David Malpass saying that “because there wasn’t a path back toward a market orientation, I discontinued the China economic dialogue”. Malpass did try to walk back on his words later on and noted that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin continues to hold ‘private’ discussions with China. On the subject of trade, last Friday our global economists published a special report titled “The rising risk of a trade war”. While the team’s baseline assumption is that trade policy actions will be limited to restrictions which are small enough not to have a significant macro impact, they also look at a couple of tail risk scenarios to this view. One is a significant but contained increase in tariffs on US imports from China on a scale very recently floated by the Administration which would likely be met by a similar imposition of tariffs on China’s imports from the US. In the second they assume that US-China trade tensions spiral into a large conflict with high tariffs imposed across the board on both sides. The team also consider the risks around a full withdrawal by the US from NAFTA. See the following link for the full report. While we mention China, over the weekend Yi Gang has been named as the new PBOC Governor, replacing Zhou Xiaochaun. Mr Yi has been the deputy PBOC Governor for nearly 10 years and so the appointment suggests that China is signalling that it’s seeking policy continuity with further focus in modernising the country’s financial sector and monetary policy. The other update to note from the weekend is confirmation that Vladimir Putin has secured victory in Russia’s presidential election with nearly 77% of the votes and will therefore stay at the helm for another 6 years. This morning markets in Asia have opened mixed with the Hang Seng (+0.06%), CSI 300 (+0.23%) and ASX 200 (+0.17%) modestly higher while the Kospi (-0.77%) and Nikkei (-1.11%) are down as we type, in part due to a Bloomberg report suggesting that Apple is designing and producing its own device displays for the first time. Markets in Japan also appear to be reacting to a nationwide survey which has showed a notable decline in support for PM Abe’s cabinet. The survey by Jiji Press shows that support is down over 9 percentage points versus last month to 39% and that disapproval has exceeded approval for the first time in five months. The moves this morning also follow a week in which US equities in particular struggled with the S&P 500 falling in four  out of the five days (with Friday’s small +0.17% rebound saving the index from a full house) to clock a -1.24%  decline. In fairness, the index is slightly above the mid-point of the YTD high in late January and YTD low in early February and really it’s just struggled for direction for the last five weeks or so. Bond markets were a little less  exciting last week with Treasuries about 5bps lower over the week but the curve back to flattening fairly aggressively with 2s10s 8.3bps flatter and 5s30s 7.2bps flatter. In commodities, WTI Oil jumped +1.88% to be up for the third straight day on Friday. DB’s Michael Hsueh believes the fundamental upside risks to oil still exist and is likely to result in some further upward revisions to his 2018 demand growth assumptions. In terms of data on Friday, in the US, the February IP was well above market at +1.1% mom (vs. +0.4% expected) which lifted annual growth to the highest since 2011 at +4.4% yoy, while capacity utilisation also grew to the highest since 2015 at 78.1% (vs. 77.7% expected). The March University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey rose to the highest since 2004 at 102 (vs. 99.2 expected). In the details, the current conditions index jumped 7.9pts to 122.8 – the highest since 1946 while the consumers’ one year ahead inflation expectation edged up 0.2pts to +2.9% (highest since Mar. 2015). Elsewhere, February housing starts and building permits both fell more than expected, at -7.0% mom to 1,236k (vs. 1,290k expected) and -5.7% mom to 1,298k (vs. 1,320k expected) respectively.  Factoring in the above, the Atlanta Fed now estimate Q1 GDP growth at 1.8% saar (-0.1ppt from previous). Back in Europe, the Euro area’s final reading of February core CPI was confirmed at 1.0% yoy. Now turning to the ECB speak over the weekend. The ECB’s Villeroy reiterated that the Euro area economy is experiencing a “robust expansion” and that a decision to lose the easing bias on QE should be seen as a sign of confidence. He also added that “there is some kind of welcome alignment of stars between the economic background, market expectations and the convergence of those market expectations towards our own views within the Governing council”. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Knot noted that the Euro area economic “outlook is almost as good as it gets” while indicating the region is “projected to continue this firm path of growth”. On inflation, he noted he has “a high degree of confidence that actually inflation will pick up and will at some point support the definition of price stability”. Finally back on Friday, the latest BOE Financial Policy Committee statement noted that apart from Brexit, UK’s financial stability outlook remains “standard” while potential material risks are from global vulnerabilities. The bank noted “some signs of rising domestic risk appetite in recent quarters” and that issuance of leveraged loans by UK companies have increased in 2017. The bank added that “valuations in some segments of the UK commercial real estate sector appear stretched”, while the proportion of new owner-occupier mortgages at higher LVR has also increased. Elsewhere, the BOE believes that UK banks could withstand a disorderly Brexit with their existing capital buffers but there is still a high potential risks of disruption to existing derivative contracts. On today's calendar, the commencement of the two-day G20 finance ministers meeting should be the highlight on Monday, while the expected announcement by China's NPC for the PBOC governor role will also be closely watched. Meanwhile the UK's David Davis and EU's Michal Barnier are due to meet in Brussels with the meeting bringing possible clues about an agreement on the terms of Brexit transition. It should be a fairly quiet start to the week for data with UK and China house prices data due overnight, followed by the January trade balance for the Euro area. There is no data due in the US however the Fed's Bostic is slated to speak in the afternoon.

16 марта, 12:00

Is The UK Manufacturing Its Nerve Agent Case For 'Action' On Russia?

Authored by Nafeez Ahmed via Oriental Review, The official claim that ‘Novichok’ points solely to Russia has been discredited... On Monday, Prime Minister Theresa May announced that former Russian spy, Sergey Skripal and his daughter Yulia, were poisoned with “a military-grade nerve agent of a type developed by Russia” known as ‘Novichok’. The chemical agent was identified by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory at Porton Down. May referred to the British government’s “knowledge that Russia has previously produced this agent and would still be capable of doing so” as a basis to conclude that Russia’s culpability in the attack “is highly likely.” On these grounds, she claimed that only two scenarios are possible: “Either this was a direct act by the Russian State against our country. Or the Russian government lost control of this potentially catastrophically damaging nerve agent and allowed it to get into the hands of others.” The British government’s line has been chorused uncritically by the entire global press corps, with little scrutiny of its plausibility. But there is a problem: far from offering a clear-cut evidence-trail to Vladimir Putin’s chemical warfare labs, the use of Novichok in the nerve gas attack on UK soil points to a wider set of potential suspects, of which Russia is in fact the least likely. Russia did actually destroy its nerve agent capabilities according to the OPCW Yet a concerted effort is being made to turn facts on their head. No clearer sign of this can be found than in the statement by Ambassador Peter Wilson, UK Permanent Representative to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), in which he claimed that Russia has “failed for many years” to fully disclose its chemical weapons programme. Wilson was parroting a claim made a year earlier by the US State Department that Russia had not made a complete declaration of its chemical weapons stockpile: “The United States cannot certify that Russia has met its obligations under the Convention.” Yet these claims are contradicted by the OPCW itself, which in September 2017 declared that the independent global agency had rigorously verified the completed destruction of Russia’s entire chemical weapons programme, including of course its nerve agent production capabilities. OPCW Director-General, Ahmet Üzümcü, congratulated Russia with the following announcement: “The completion of the verified destruction of Russia’s chemical weapons programme is a major milestone in the achievement of the goals of the Chemical Weapons Convention. I congratulate Russia and I commend all of their experts who were involved for their professionalism and dedication. I also express my appreciation to the States Parties that assisted the Russian Federation with its destruction program and thank the OPCW staff who verified the destruction.” The OPCW’s press statement confirmed that: “The remainder of Russia’s chemical weapons arsenal has been destroyed at the Kizner Chemical Weapons Destruction Facility in the Udmurt Republic. Kizner was the last operating facility of seven chemical weapons destruction facilities in Russia. The six other facilities (Kambarka, Gorny, Maradykovsky, Leonidovka, Pochep and Shchuchye) completed work and were closed between 2005 and 2015.” The OPCW’s reports on Russia confirm that the agency found no evidence of the existence of an active Novichok programme. It should be noted that Dr. Robin M. Black, formerly of Porton Down’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, sits on the Scientific Advisory Board of the OPCW. And a scientific review by Dr. Black also raised doubts about Novichok, noting that its properties and structures had not been independently confirmed. So in short, the OPCW does not agree with the vague US and British insistence that Russia failed to declare all its chemical weapons stockpiles and facilities, and does not agree with the insistence that Novichok stockpiles or production facilities still exist in Russia. But it seems that neither does His Excellency Peter Wilson himself. Amb. Peter Wilson (United Kingdom) In a statement to the OPCW in November 2017, Ambassador Wilson congratulated the OPCW on verifying the complete destruction of Russia’s chemical weapons programme with high praise for its director, Ahmet Üzümcü. Wilson listed the latter’s numerous achievements including: “… the completion of the verified destruction of Russia’s declared chemical weapons programme.” He did not say anything about Russia’s actions being incomplete, or OPCW’s actions being inadequate. So how credible is his recent insinuation that the OPCW’s position is wrong? Arguably, not very. The lack of credibility of the Anglo-American critique of Russia’s destruction of its chemical weapons was called out in a detailed report by the respected Clingandael Institute of International Relations. The report, co-funded by the European Union, criticised the United States for adopting an unhelpful politicised approach to the chemical weapons issue in relation to Russia, while hypocritically delaying its own compliance obligations, all of which was done in a manner which bypassed OPCW mechanisms. It’s worth reproducing that entire text in full: “… on a political level there have been some drawbacks. Particularly interesting is that compliance concerns tend to be raised by the US, while this state is itself being criticized for delays in disarmament. In 2005, the US expressed concern about active offensive CW research and development (R&D) programmes, as well as inaccurate declarations regarding past CW transfers and undeclared CW facilities in Russia, China, Iran, Libya and Sudan. The US decided to address these concerns through bilateral channels, rather than directly engaging formal OPCW mechanisms. In the meantime, the US itself has been criticized for exporting arms classified as ‘toxicological agents’ (notably tear gas) to numerous countries in the Middle East (between 2009–13). Since 9/11, the US has also intensified its R&D on non-lethal chemical agents, along with new means of delivery and dispersal. The CWC (Article II, para. 2) does cover chemical compounds with incapacitating or irritant effects… Taken together with the delay in destroying US CW stockpiles, this has taken a toll on the US’ standing within the CWC, undermining its role as a ‘regime hegemon’. Since these compliance concerns remain unresolved, this has also, ipso facto, affected the authority of the CWC, and hence the OPCW.” At this point, neither the US nor Britain have offered any actual evidence as to why the OPCW’s verification process regarding Russia’s dismantlement of its chemical weapons capability should be disbelieved. They have provided no evidence that Russia retains any Novichok stockpiles. The OPCW is, of course, the same agency whose independent investigations the West is relying on to determine culpability in major chemical weapons attacks in Syria. Why, then, would the OPCW’s conclusions on Syria be considered gospel truth, while its conclusions on Russia be rejected? Other states have Novichok capabilities, but the British government doesn’t want to investigate them The OPCW’s authoritative verdict on Russia’s now destroyed chemical weapons capabilities should be enough to give anyone pause for thought in rushing to judgement concerning Russian responsibility for the Novichok attack. Instead, the British government appears to have no interest in investigating the fact that there are other state agencies with significant nerve agent capabilities. Like its ally, the United States. Under Boris Yeltsin, who won Russian elections thanks to Western covert meddling, the Russian government had declared that it was not stockpiling Novichok. This is why Yeltsin did not report Novichok’s existence under chemical-weapons conventions at the time — because the official Russian position was that the stockpiles no longer existed. Yeltsin’s Western allies did not disagree at the time. On the contrary, the Americans were involved in the dismantlement of Russia’s remaining Novichok capabilities. In August 1999, as the BBC reported, US defence experts arrived in Uzbekistan to help “dismantle and decontaminate one of the former Soviet Union’s largest chemical weapons testing facilities.” The facility was known as “a major research site for a new generation of secret, highly lethal chemical weapons, known as Novichok”, and provided the US ample opportunity to learn about this nerve agent and reproduce it for testing and defence purposes. But it is not just the US. According to Craig Murray — former US Ambassador to Uzbekistan and prior to that a longtime career diplomat in the UK Foreign Office who worked across Africa, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia — the British government itself has advanced capabilities in Novichok: “The ‘novochok’ group of nerve agents — a very loose term simply for a collection of new nerve agents the Soviet Union were developing fifty years ago — will almost certainly have been analysed and reproduced by Porton Down. That is entirely what Porton Down is there for. It used to make chemical and biological weapons as weapons, and today it still does make them in small quantities in order to research defences and antidotes. After the fall of the Soviet Union Russian chemists made a lot of information available on these nerve agents. And one country which has always manufactured very similar persistent nerve agents is Israel.” But the British government doesn’t want to investigate Porton Down, not even to rule out the possibility that it may have ‘lost control’ of some of its Novichok stockpiles. Porton Down: proudly experimenting with nerve gas on the British public from the 1950s to 1989 Porton Down, Salisbury, the UK Ministry of Defence’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory. Perhaps the government is worried about what it might actually discover if it asks too many questions about Porton Down itself. The facility has a somewhat chequered history in relation to the abuse of chemical and biological weapons programmes that has been largely forgotten. This history illustrates that the British government has not at all been averse to using chemical and biological weapons on its own population, just to see what happens. Two years ago, the Independent reported on new historical research which found that during the Cold War, the British government “used the general public as unwitting biological and chemical warfare guinea pigs on a much greater scale than previously thought.” Over 750 secret operations had been carried out on “hundreds of thousands of ordinary Britons” involving “biological and chemical warfare attacks launched from aircraft, ships and road vehicles.” “British military aircraft dropped thousands of kilos of a chemical of ‘largely unknown toxic potential’ on British civilian populations in and around Salisbury in Wiltshire, Cardington in Bedfordshire and Norwich in Norfolk… Substantial quantities were also dispersed across parts of the English Channel and the North Sea. It’s not known the extent to which coastal towns in England and France were affected… commuters on the London underground were also used as guinea pigs on a substantially larger scale than previously thought. The new research has discovered that a hitherto unknown biological warfare field trial was carried out in the capital’s tube system in May 1964. The secret operation — carried out by scientists from the government’s chemical and biological warfare research centre at Porton Down, Wiltshire — involved the release of large quantities of bacteria called Bacillus globigii…” The new research also shows that many of the British scientists involved “had grave misgivings about the field trials… some had long felt that it was not politically advisable to conduct large-scale trials in Britain with live bacterial agents.” Such reservations did not stop the government from authorising these dangerous experiments. Porton Down also conducted extensive nerve agent tests on British soldiers around this time. Less well-known, though, is the fact that members of the British armed forces “were experimented on with Sarin, the deadly nerve gas, as late as 1983 at the Government’s defence research centre at Porton Down,” according to Ministry of Defence documents obtained by The Telegraph. Operation Antler, as the police investigation into the experiments was called, found that the nerve agent trials had gone on as late as 1989. A secret British intelligence unit is actively arranging ‘honey trap’ propaganda operations to incriminate ‘adversaries’ There are strong reasons, then, not to fall slavishly in line with the British government’s rush to judgement on Russia. But this is particularly the case given what we now know about British intelligence service’s disinformation intent and capabilities when dealing with “adversaries.” National Security Agency documents leaked by whistleblower Edward Snowden revealed that a secret British intelligence unit, Joint Threat Research and Intelligence Group (JTRIG), uses a range of “dirty tricks” against “nations, hackers, terror groups, suspected criminals and arms dealers that include releasing computer viruses, spying on journalists and diplomats, jamming phones and computers, and using sex to lure targets into ‘honey traps,’” according to a NBC News investigation. Although much of the focus of these operations is online, they also include the goal of “having an impact in the real world” and “using online techniques to make something happen in the real or online world.” The modus operandi is to “destroy, deny, degrade [and] disrupt” enemies by “discrediting” them and planting misinformation designed to look like actions were performed by them. Propaganda campaigns can use deception, mass messaging and “pushing stories” via Twitter, Flickr, Facebook and YouTube. One section of the document explains that such influence operations can involve direct efforts to manipulate people’s behaviour into compromising situations: “Honey trap; a great option. Very successful when it works. – Get someone to go somewhere on the internet, or a physical location to be met by a ‘friendly face’. – JTRIG has the ability to ‘shape’ the environment on occasions.” Such capabilities and operations of deception at the heart of the British state raise perfectly reasonable questions about whether the UK’s intelligence services are deliberately seeking to pin the blame on Russia for geopolitical reasons — or perhaps, even, to distract from scrutiny of allies who might be legitimate suspects. According to former British diplomat Craig Murray, for instance, it is more reasonable to cast the net of suspicion onto Israel for many of the same reasons cited by the British government: “Israel has the nerve agents. Israel has Mossad which is extremely skilled at foreign assassinations. Theresa May claimed Russian propensity to assassinate abroad as a specific reason to believe Russia did it. Well Mossad has an even greater propensity to assassinate abroad. And while I am struggling to see a Russian motive for damaging its own international reputation so grieviously, Israel has a clear motivation for damaging the Russian reputation so grieviously. Russian action in Syria has undermined the Israeli position in Syria and Lebanon in a fundamental way, and Israel has every motive for damaging Russia’s international position by an attack aiming to leave the blame on Russia.” Murray further points out that it is unlikely the Russians “waited eight years to do this, they could have waited until after their World Cup.” Similarly, it makes little sense to suddenly assassinate a “swapped spy” who had already served his time and been living out in the open for years in London. Murray is no blind Russiaphile, and so his critical analysis cannot be dismissed on grounds of partisanship. He describes himself as “someone who believes that agents of the Russian state did assassinate Litvinenko, and that the Russian security services carried out at least some of the apartment bombings that provided the pretext for the brutal assault on Chechnya. I believe the Russian occupation of Crimea and parts of Georgia is illegal.” But he cautions that, given the severe lack of credible evidence on this case, he is “alarmed by the security, spying and armaments industries’ frenetic efforts to stoke Russophobia and heat up the new cold war.” Indeed, INSURGE just reported on an extensive US Army study published last year which not only stated quite unequivocally that NATO expansionism is the main driver of Russian belligerence, but that NATO’s main interest has always been to rollback Russia’s regional influence so that the West can dominate Central Asian natural resources and oil pipeline routes. The document recommended that in 2018, the US should consider pursuing a concerted covert “information” campaign to undermine Putin. Is this what we are seeing play out right now as Theresa May rushes to punish Putin? This leaves us with the following. The actual history of Novichok shows that out of the countries discussed here, Russia is the only state to have been certified by the OPCW as having destroyed its chemical weapons programme, including its nerve agent capabilities. The OPCW found no evidence to indicate that Russia retains an active Novichok capability. The same is not the case for the US, Britain and Israel. There is no legitimate reason for the British authorities to rule out that any of these states could have at the very least ‘lost control’ of their nerve agent stockpiles. The fact that the government chose, instead, to shut down all avenues of inquiry other than to claim falsely that the “only possibility” is for all roads to lead to Russia, demonstrates that we are almost certainly in the midst of a concerted state propaganda operation. It may turn out that Russia did indeed carry out the Novichok attack. But at this time, the British state has no real basis to presume this. Which implies that the state has already decided that it wants to manufacture a path to heightened hostilities with Russia, regardless of the evidence. And that does not bode well.

15 марта, 00:03

Stock Market Today, March 14: Dow Slumps on Trade War Woes

Stocks opened higher on Wednesday morning, but U.S. indexes quickly slumped into the red on the back of continued concerns about an impending trade war.

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14 марта, 17:44

Stocks to watch: Dignity, Signet, Prudential, Shire, Ocado

Anglo American and other miners boosted as Goldman Sachs turns positive on the sector

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13 марта, 09:00

Can Paddy Considine's Journeyman land a knockout blow for British boxing movies?

Despite the sport’s popularity in the UK, Britain has never produced a fight flick anywhere near the likes of Rocky or Raging Bull. Can it ever change?As UK cinemas prepare for the release of Paddy Considine’s new feature Journeyman, it’s a good time to think about the genre that Considine is working in: the boxing film. Asked to list some of the genre’s characteristics, the average movie-goer might say: a working-class setting, predictable rise and fall, lots of triumphalism, and something else ... Americans. In spite of the sport’s Anglo-American genesis and its still immense popularity in the UK, few British films about the fight game – compared with the heft of Rocky or Raging Bull or Creed or Million Dollar Baby – have ever made a big dent, either at the box office or in the public consciousness.Considine’s second film as director in fact turns away from the expectations of genre. His is a humane and realistic depiction of a fighter battling a brain injury. It eschews rags-to-riches tales, heroic comebacks or greedy mob fixers, and focuses simply on a wealthy professional athlete facing a heartbreaking situation. And beyond the film’s unexpected treatment of familiar sports terrain, there’s something else about Journeyman that’s nice: it’s homegrown. Continue reading...

12 марта, 20:57

Harold Macmillan: "Greeks to Their Romans...": Document: On the Twentieth Century Imperial Succession

**D.R. Thorpe**: [Supermac: The Life of Harold Macmillan](https://play.google.com/store/books/details?id=lzVgMHMwZtwC) >[Harold] Macmillan dubbed Roosevelt ‘The Emperor of the West’, and Churchill ‘The Emperor of the East’. When Eisenhower paid court to Roosevelt, Macmillan said to Bob Murphy, ‘Isn’t he just like a Roman centurion?’ The classical analogy famously went further. To Dick Crossman, Director of Psychological Warfare at AFHQ, he said: >>We, my dear Crossman, are Greeks in this American empire. You will find the Americans much as the Greeks found the Romans – great big vulgar, bustling people, more vigorous than we are and also more idle, with more unspoiled virtues, but also more corrupt. We must run A.F.H.Q. as the Greeks ran the operations of the Emperor Claudius... The source Thorpe gives for this quote is the _Sunday Telegraph_ for February 9, 1964. Anybody found a longer description? Not in the biographies, and library does not seem to have Crossman's _Backbench Diaries_... ---- ---- **Thorpe**: >On 22 December, Macmillan was summoned to Downing Street. It was one of the turning points of his life. Churchill outlined the complex situation obtaining in North Africa. Macmillan’s importance, he emphasised, would lie in the relationship he could build up with Eisenhower… >As Macmillan...

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11 марта, 02:00

Leaders Under Pressure – Cynthia Carroll

Former Anglo American CEO challenged culture at mining group

08 марта, 15:42

Global Stocks, Futures Rise Ahead Of ECB As Trade War Tensions Ease

As trade war fears ease (again) following news late on Wednesday that the White House would consider tariff "carve outs" for Canada and Mexico, markets are modestly higher ahead of a fresh monetary policy catalyst from the ECB this morning. Mario Draghi will be the center of attention today as investors wait to see whether there will be any moves toward an exit from stimulus measures amid the threat of a potential trade war. That said, the ECB is unlikely to make major changes to guidance at today’s meeting as inflation remains far below a target of just under 2%, even with stronger economic growth. Meanwhile, European stocks drift higher, led by technology shares following strong gains in Asia. Nasdaq futures climb steadily toward session highs, mirroring those gains, while the S&P has also found a bid in recent bid. The European cash open mimicked the lead seen on Wall St. and overnight in Asia, with major bourses recouping prior losses (Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%) with the exception of the DAX 30 (-0.2%) which sees Merck (-3.0%) at the bottom of the index after the release of its earnings this morning. Material and Energy names are the session laggards, with BHP Billiton (-3.9%), Anglo American (-2.0%) underperforming in the FTSE and Arcelormittal (-1.0%) in the CAC. Elsewhere, the Telecom sector (+1.0%) outperformance has been supported by phone operators Vodafone (+1.3%), Orange (+0.54%) and DT Telekom (+0.7%). The strong European open followed another green session out of Asia, with Australia's ASX 200 (+0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) higher with sentiment also underpinned by economic releases including encouraging trade figures in Australia and stronger than expected Japanese Final Q4 GDP. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.5%) outperformed and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) initially lagged after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations, before better than expected Chinese trade data provided some inspiration. Bunds retrace some of yesterday’s advance as underperformance in the belly of the curve leads to bear flattening in the 5s30s; Italy outperforms with the rest of the periphery amid speculation of a coalition between euroskeptic and center-left parties. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rallies, pressuring EUR/USD below 1.2400 and pulling CAD, MXN back from overnight highs. WTI crude holds above $61/barrel amid bullish demand outlooks from Exxon Mobil and Goldman Sachs. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,729.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 374.01 MXAP up 0.7% to 175.10 MXAPJ up 0.9% to 576.15 Nikkei up 0.5% to 21,368.07 Topix up 0.4% to 1,709.95 Hang Seng Index up 1.5% to 30,654.52 Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,288.41 Sensex up 1.2% to 33,433.90 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 5,942.87 Kospi up 1.3% to 2,433.08 German 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 0.665% Euro down 0.2% to $1.2388 Italian 10Y yield fell 4.2 bps to 1.687% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.445% Brent futures little changed at $64.30/bbl Gold spot little changed at $1,325.63 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 89.74 Top Overnight News The ECB’s new forecasts will show growth and inflation similar to the picture of solid economic momentum seen three months ago, according to euro-area officials familiar with the matter The EU’s top financial-services official has told member states and lawmakers to get on with plans to hand the bloc’s main markets regulator new powers over investment funds and derivatives clearinghouses China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi vowed a “justified and necessary response” to any efforts to incite a trade war, in the country’s most forceful response yet to Trump’s threatened tariff actions Purchases of foreign bonds by Japanese banks’ trust accounts, often seen as a proxy for the nation’s pension funds, reached a record 841.7 billion yen in February China Feb. exports rise 44.5% y/y in dollar terms, est. 11.0%; gain 36.2% y/y in yuan terms, est. 7.4% Japan revised 4Q GDP rises annualized 1.6% q/q; est. +1% Asian stocks recouped some of the prior day’s losses with gains across the region after trade protectionism concerns somewhat eased and amid a continued friendlier tone from North Korea, with the nation said to offer a conditional halt to its ICBM program. ASX 200 (+0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) were higher with sentiment also underpinned by economic releases including encouraging trade figures in Australia and stronger than expected Japanese Final Q4 GDP. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.5%) outperformed and Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) initially lagged after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations, before better than expected Chinese trade data provided some inspiration. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued as demand lacked amid the improved risk appetite and following an uneventful enhanced-liquidity auction, while the BoJ also began their latest 2-day policy meeting which is not expected to provide any fireworks Top Asian News Hong Kong Seen Draining Liquidity as Currency Drops to 1984 Low; Hong Kong Stocks Rise as Volatility Builds in Topsy-Turvy Week Coincheck to Start Paying Back Victims of $500 Million Heist BNP Paribas Expects Noble Group to Skip March 9 Coupon Payment L Catterton-Backed Brand GXG Is Said to Plan $300 Million IPO As trade war fears are easing, the European cash open mimicked the lead seen on Wall St. and overnight in Asia, with major bourses recouping prior losses (Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%) with the exception of the DAX 30 (-0.2%) which sees Merck (-3.0%) at the bottom of the index after the release of its earnings this morning. Material and Energy names are the session laggards, with BHP Billiton (-3.9%), Anglo American (-2.0%) underperforming in the FTSE and Arcelormittal (-1.0%) in the CAC. Elsewhere, the Telecom sector (+1.0%) outperformance has been supported by phone operators Vodafone (+1.3%), Orange (+0.54%) and DT Telekom (+0.7%). So far, newsflow has been on the lighter side as participants await the ECB decision, in which there is rising speculation that the central bank could drop its QE easing bias. Top European News German Factory Orders Drop After Demand Surged at End of 2017 ECB Outlook Is Said to See Solid Growth Similar to December View Aviva Falls After Claims Surge Hits Profit at Canadian Unit John Lewis Warns of Further Profit Squeeze After a Tough Year Adidas Leads DAX Gains; Discount to Peers Unwarranted, BofA Says In FX, the DXY is mildly firmer within a relative narrow 89.770-545 band, as the Greenback ekes out relatively small gains vs all its  G10 rivals on more reports that Canada, Mexico and possibly other nations may be given exemptions from US import tariffs that are  expected to be officially signed off later today or on Friday. This has calmed global trade war fears to an extent, while North Korea  continues its charm initiative on the nuclear front by offering a conditional ICBM suspension. However, the impending ECB meeting provides potential more currency market activity with expectations very split on whether the QE easing bias will dropped or not.  Eur/Usd currently towards the lower end of a tight range around the 1.2400 level amidst reports that new ECB Staff forecasts will be  largely the same as in December, but latest forward guidance and the tone of President Draghi’s press conference/Q&A are key along with the aforementioned pledge to increase and/or extend asset buying if needed. Options break-even pricing assigns a circa +/- 67 pip move on the eventuality as a benchmark. Elsewhere, Usd/Jpy also remains largely anchored around a big figure – 106.00 where a hefty expiry runs off (1.1 bn), and now awaiting the BoJ for more independent impetus. The Aud and Nzd continue to underperform around 0.7800 and 0.7250 vs the Usd as the partial Dollar revival weighs on commodity prices, and the Aud fails to derive any sustained benefit from a big trade data beat overnight. Elsewhere, some Nok weakness vs the Eur after Stats Norway trimmed its 2018 inflation and growth forecasts (cross nudging towards 9.7300) and Usd/Hkd is close to the top of its peg tolerance ceiling with the HKMA indicating that 7.8500 is the line in the sand (vs 7.8300 at present). USD/TRY also firmer this morning, after Moody’s downgraded Turkey’s sovereign rating deeper into junk territory with the outlook negative. In commodities, oil prices hovering around yesterday’s lows with WTI back at USD 61/bbl (-0.1%), while Brent is around the low  USD 60s (-0.2%) amid the slight firming of the USD index. Price action has been quiet, with crude futures trading within a tight  range thus far. In terms of newsflow, Platts reported that Libya could restart their 90k bpd Elephant field after reaching a deal with  guards. China Feb. iron ore imports 84.66mln tons vs. Prev. 100.3mln tons M/M, while crude oil imports 32.26mln tons vs. Prev.  40.6mln tons M/M. Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih says energy demand is growing at a rate not seen for decades. Libya could restart  90k bpd Elephant field after reaching a deal with guards. Of note, The field was shut down on Feb. 23rd due to protests by local  guards over environmental concerns US Event Calendar 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -2.8% 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 210,000 8:30am: Continuing Claims, est. 1.92m, prior 1.93m 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 56.2 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, prior $1.74t  

07 марта, 14:32

Основные фондовые индексы Европы снижаются

Европейские рынки ослабли в среду утром после отставки экономического советника президента Дональда Трампа, усилившей опасения относительно глобальной торговой войны. Общеевропейский индекс Stoxx 600 упал на 0,22 процента во время утренних сделок, причем почти все сектора были на отрицательной территории, а крупные биржи торговались в противоположных направлениях. Акции сектора основных ресурсов в Европе были самыми худшими исполнителями, ослбанув почти на 2 процента, на фоне беспокойства, что администрация Трампа продолжит протекционистские тарифы на импорт стали и алюминия. Glencore, Anglo American и ArcelorMittal упали на 1,5 процента на новостях. Во время утренней торговли сектор автопроизводителей потерял почти 1 процент. Fiat Chrysler объявила, что отзовет более 3000 своих автомобилей Jeep Grand Cherokee и Chrysler 300, проданных в России в период с сентября 2010 года по июль 2017 года, сообщает Reuters в среду. Акции торговались на 1,5 процента ниже. Рассматривая отдельные акции, Rolls-Royce поднялся на вершину европейского индекса после того, как фирма заявила, что она остаетсяь на пути к достижению своих финансовых целей на 2020 год. Британский производитель двигателей сообщил о лучшей, чем ожидалось, операционной прибыли за 2017 год, что отправило акции более чем на 12 процентов выше. Гэри Кон, главный экономический советник Трампа, объявил во вторник, что он уйдет в отставку после несогласия с Трампом из-за планов по снижению тарифов на импорт стали и алюминия. Кон считался "голосом разума" в Белом доме и благоволил Уолл-стрит. В свою очередь, Европейская комиссия готова обсудить свой ответ на тарифные планы США, которые будут облагать налогом на импорт стали и алюминия на 25 и 10 процентов соответственно - в течение неопределенного периода времени. Если они будут введены, тарифы серьезно повлияют на автомобильную промышленность Европы. Наследный принц Саудовской Аравии Мухаммед бин Салман начнет трехдневный государственный визит в Лондон. Он встретится с премьер-министром Великобритании Терезой Мэй, министром иностранных дел Борисом Джонсоном и старшими членами королевской семьи в Виндзорском замке. Появились сообщения о том, что планируются протесты против его визита. Между тем, политический тупик продолжается в Италии, поскольку партии соперничают за руководство правящей коалицией после неудовлетворительных выборов в воскресенье. Лидер правой партии Италии Lega - крупнейшей партии в центре правых коалиций на прошлой неделе голосования - сказал, что он единственный вариант для премьер-министра. По сообщениям Reuters , бывший премьер-министр Сильвио Берлускони назвал себя «координатором правого центра» коалиции. На текущий момент: FTSE 7135.59 -11.16 -0.16% DAX 12064.54 -49.33 -0.41% CAC 5135.79 -34.44 -0.67% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

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06 марта, 12:55

De Beers во втором цикле продаж 2018 г. снизила объем реализации алмазов на 17,4%, до $555 млн

Объем реализации De Beers необработанных алмазов во втором цикле продаж 2018 г. (с 30 января по 5 марта) снизился, по предварительным данным, на 17,4% по сравнению с предыдущим циклом - до $555 млн. При этом к аналогичному периоду прошлого года продажи увеличились на 0,4%, говорится в сообщении холдинга Anglo American.В первом...

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20 февраля 2016, 19:05

25 самых богатых людей Британии

Для самых любопытных, раскроем секрет сразу: Елизаветы Второй в этом списке нет. По версии Sunday Times, скромная английская королева в текущем году не вошла даже в топ-300.

19 ноября 2013, 08:00

Неудачи с бразильской нефтью

31 октября 2013 Нефтегазовая компания OGX, контролируемая бразильским бизнесменом Эйком Батистой (Eike Batista), 30 октября обратилась в суд Рио-де-Жанейро с просьбой защиты от кредиторов. Как сообщает Reuters, банкротство OGX станет крупнейшим в Латинской Америке. Обратиться в суд в OGX были вынуждены после того, как компания не смогла договориться с кредиторами о рефинансировании задолженности в размере 5,1 миллиарда долларов. Если запрос будет удовлетворен судом, OGX получит два месяца на разработку плана реструктуризации.  В число кредиторов OGX входят, среди прочих, крупнейший в мире инвестфонд облигаций Pacific Investment Management Co (PIMCO), а также одна самая большая в мире инвестиционная и управляющая компания BlackRock.  Как пишет The Washington Post, OGX так и не смогла выполнить обещания по добыче нефти на шельфе страны, хотя с 2010 года не раз сообщала об открытии залежей углеводородов. В первой половине 2013 года убытки компании превысили 2,5 миллиарда долларов. Кроме того, в компании резко снизили прогноз по объемам запасов нефти на принадлежащих ей участках шельфа: если в 2012 году они оценивались в миллиард баррелей, то в прошлом месяце — уже всего в 285 миллионов.  Банкротство OGX, хотя и не окажет существенного влияния на бразильскую экономику, в СМИ расценили как очередной этап крушения империи Батисты, который совсем недавно являлся самым богатым бизнесменом страны. В марте 2012 года журнал Forbes оценивал состояние Батисты в 30 миллиардов долларов, однако в сентябре 2013-го исключил бизнесмена из списка миллиардеров. В издании отметили, что капитал Батисты снизился до 900 миллионов долларов, в первую очередь, из-за финансовых затруднений OGX. http://lenta.ru/news/2013/10/31/batista/  1 ноября 2013 Как быстро стать миллионером. Бразильский бизнесмен потерял 30 миллиардов долларов за полтора года  Эйке Батиста, некогда самый богатый предприниматель Бразилии, переживает не самые лучшие дни. Его основной актив — нефтекомпания OGX — подала на банкротство, инвесторы грозят судами, а состояние, которое еще полтора года назад составляло более 30 миллиардов долларов, упало ниже отметки в миллиард. Талантливому и умеющему рисковать бизнесмену и раньше приходилось терять деньги, но убытки в таких масштабах за столь короткий период времени он терпит впервые — падение Батисты оказалось таким же стремительным, как и взлет. Эйке Батиста долго оставался в тени своего знаменитого отца — Элиезера Батисты, который в 60-х годах возглавлял бразильское министерство горнорудной промышленности и энергетики, а также несколько лет работал гендиректором государственной горной компании Vale do Rio Doce (приватизирована в 1997 году). Как водится в таких случаях, все члены семьи отрицают, что старший помогал младшему. Элиезер утверждает, что его сын с самого детства обладал способностью доводить начатое до конца. По словам Батисты-младшего, наличие известного отца, напротив, было для него обузой, поскольку глава Vale и близко не подпускал сына к бизнесу госкомпании во избежание конфликта интересов. Вопросы о помощи отца в бизнесе вызывают у Эйке достаточно резкую реакцию. «Я начал свой бизнес с нуля», — заявлял Батиста в 2010 году, в период расцвета своей империи. Молодой металлург Детство Батиста провел на родине, а с 12 до 23 лет жил в Германии, куда переехал с родителями (отец Эйке в тот период занимался международной экспансией Vale). После школы Эйке Батиста изучал металлургию в Университете Аахена и, по его собственным заверениям, работал страховым агентом, чтобы оплачивать учебу. В 1979 году он вернулся в Бразилию и попробовал свои силы в торговле металлами, благодаря чему уже через полтора года заработал шесть миллионов долларов комиссионных. Начинающий бизнесмен вложил деньги в золотодобычу, но сперва прогорел, потеряв 5,7 миллиона. Впоследствии, правда, старатели вышли на уровень добычи, приносящий по миллиону долларов в месяц. Батиста продал доли в проекте нескольким партнерам, разделив риски. К тому времени в разработке у предпринимателя были уже пять рудников в Бразилии, один в Чили и два в Канаде. Его бизнесом заинтересовалась канадская TVX Gold, которая купила у Батисты один из рудников. Со временем бизнесмен стал гендиректором и крупнейшим акционером этой компании, однако удача отвернулась от него: TVX рассорилась с одним из партнеров, и ее акции начали стремительно падать. Батиста, снова потеряв бóльшую часть инвестиций, отошел от управления компанией и в начале 2000-х годов основал горнорудную MMX. В новую компанию он вложил 300 миллионов долларов собственных средств и 200 миллионов, взятых в кредит в Banco Itaú. В 2006 году MMX вышла на IPO (первичное размещение акций) и привлекла более полумиллиарда долларов. Через два года компания продала два рудника южноафриканской Anglo American за 5,5 миллиарда долларов. В декабре 2007 года еще одна структура Батисты — энергетическая MPX Energia — провела IPO на 1,1 миллиарда долларов. В 2008 году состоялся выход на биржу нефтекомпании Батисты OGX. В рамках этого IPO удалось привлечь 4,1 миллиарда долларов. OGX была гордостью Батисты, компания через несколько месяцев после основания стала крупнейшим частным игроком в нефтегазовом секторе страны. К 2012 году Батиста числился основателем пяти компаний, акции которых торговались на бирже. Его состояние превышало 34 миллиарда долларов (по данным Bloomberg). В рейтинге миллиардеров Forbes в 2012 году предприниматель вошел в первую десятку с результатом в 30 миллиардов долларов. Батиста не собирался останавливаться на достигнутом. Он планировал обойти по объему состояния богатейшего бизнесмена Карлоса Слима (73 миллиарда долларов) и стать самым состоятельным человеком в мире. Батиста прогнозировал, что к 2020 году станет обладателем 100-миллиардного состояния. Бизнесмен любил повторять, что работает на благо Бразилии, но при этом не забывал упоминать на своей странице в Facebook, насколько он богат. У Батисты хорошие отношения с властями; бизнесмен удостаивался лестных отзывов от высших должностных лиц. «Я думаю, Эйке воплощает собой особый вид предпринимателя, — говорила президент страны Дилма Руссеф. — Это человек, который ставит перед собой очень амбициозные цели и делает все, чтобы добиться их». Батиста не скрывает своих ответных теплых чувств к властям. Злые языки поговаривают, что стремительным ростом своего состояния бизнесмен обязан как раз этим теплым отношениям. Батиста предпочитает объяснять успешную карьеру банальным везением и тяжелой работой. Скорее всего, предприниматель прав, потому что хорошие отношения с властями у него сохранились, а вот бизнес пошел хуже некуда. Видимо, удача отвернулась. Нефть ушла под землю Первые отголоски предстоящего краха OGX прозвучали еще весной 2011 года. Тогда результаты независимого аудита показали, что перспективы компании не такие уж радужные. Несмотря на то, что ее резервы выросли на 60 процентов, инвесторы бросились распродавать акции OGX. Дело в том, что, по данным независимой проверки, значительная часть нефти может оказаться неизвлекаемой. Батиста раскритиковал отчет и пообещал удивить инвесторов. Как оказалось, к тому времени точка невозврата уже была пройдена. По данным консалтинговой компании Economatica, стоимость всех компаний Батисты с декабря 2011 года по август 2012 года упала почти на 40 процентов, до 19 миллиардов долларов. Все это время бизнесмен утверждал, что не теряет деньги, хотя его состояние к тому моменту уменьшилось до 15 миллиардов долларов. Батиста грозил инвесторам, которые играли на бирже против него, что они в конечном итоге останутся «без штанов», тогда как у его компании все будет хорошо. Опасения аудиторов о плохой извлекаемости нефти оправдались: уровень добычи у OGX оказался невысоким. Компания публиковала квартальные отчеты один хуже другого; организация тратила большие суммы, пытаясь ввести в строй новые месторождения; убытки нарастали стремительными темпами. Как пишет Bloomberg, в конечном итоге оказалось, что в денежном выражении Батиста и его команда завысили резервы на триллион долларов. Паника инвесторов привела к падению акций OGX на 96 процентов за прошедшие 12 месяцев. В начале сентября Forbes исключил Батисту из списка миллиардеров, так как его состояние опустилось ниже отметки в миллиард. Слухи о том, что набравшая долгов OGX может подать заявление о банкротстве, ходили уже давно. Компания в последние месяцы пыталась договориться с кредиторами о реструктуризации долга в размере пяти миллиардов долларов, но не вышло: 30 октября OGX обратилась в суд Рио-де-Жанейро с заявлением о банкротстве. Процедура банкротства в Бразилии, как и в США, предусматривает защиту от кредиторов и возможность продолжить деятельность. Такая практика была введена в 2005 году. Статистика неутешительна: из четырех тысяч компаний, прошедших через процедуру защиты от кредиторов, только один процент смог возобновить деятельность. Вероятность возврата к работе OGX, может, и есть, но шансы действительно обнаружить те объемы нефти, которые были заявлены изначально, ничтожно малы. Впрочем, кто знает, вдруг Батисте снова улыбнется удача. http://lenta.ru/articles/2013/11/01/batista/  - - - - - Общие соображения о бразильском шельфе: - узкие размеры в отличие, например от Северного моря, шельфа Австралии, Южно-Китайского моря  - незначительные месторождения на суше подчеркивают ограниченность шельфового НГБ в отличие от Мексиканского залива - залежи соли, ограничивающие возможности сейсморазведки по исследованию подсолевых структур и, соответственно, большие ошибки при бурении

08 ноября 2012, 09:55

Новое детище барона Ротшильда

По инициативе барона Давида Ротшильда во Франции создана группа межконфессионального и культурного сотрудничества «Бизнес за мир». Чтобы было сподручней управлять бизнесом и миром. А заодно культурой. В глобальном, разумеется, смысле.  Учредительное собрание состоялось 5 ноября в Париже в стенах французского парламента.  В мероприятии приняли участие руководители крупнейших компаний Европы, Ближнего Востока и Африки, а также известные политические и общественные деятели, в том числе спикер парламента Франции Клод Бартолон, экс-канцлер Германии Герхард Шредер, принц Иордании Хасан, а также министр Турции по европейским делам Эгемен Багис.  Украину представлял глава «Киевского межконфессионального форума», народный депутат Александр Фельдман.  Цель объединения – развитие межконфессионального диалога, объединение усилий политиков и крупных бизнесменов ради утверждения мира и многообразия в современном обществе, пишет LB.ua.  Фельдман заключил договор о сотрудничестве между «Киевским межконфессиональным форумом» и группой "Бизнес за мир", а также пригласил Ротшильда посетить Украину. Кроме того, были достигнуты договоренности о визите в Украину в 2013 году советника короля Марокко Андрэ Азулая.  Ротшильды являются самыми влиятельными бизнесменами на Земле. Вот уже на протяжении полутора столетий они финансируют военные действия, социальные и экономические реформы, предвыборные кампании и антиправительственные акции в различных странах мира. Сегодня, как и прежде, мало что решается без ведома и согласия семейства Ротшильдов. Политика, экономика, наука, культура – и многое другое в немалой степени находятся под их всеохватным, скрытым от посторонних глаз контролем. Члены семьи Ротшильдов в настоящее время считаются самыми богатыми людьми в мире. Их общий капитал составляет $350 миллиардов.  Точную цифру довольно трудно определить из-за многочисленности, принадлежащих им активов. Некоторые эксперты утверждают, что семья Ротшильдов располагает примерно $1 триллионом только в недвижимости и банковском секторе.  Официальными резиденциями «банковских императоров» считаются Лондон и Париж. Основной костяк бизнеса именитого клана на сегодняшний день составляют такие финансовые империи, как «Натан Майер Ротшильд и сыновья», «Ротшильд и Компания», «Эдмонд Банк» и «Париж-Орлеан Холдинг».  Сейчас Ротшильды владеют множеством компаний и банков, в том числе:  Банк N. M. Rothschild & Son (Англия);  Банк Rothschild & Cie Banque (Франция);  Банк JNR Ltd, осуществляющий инвестиции в украинские и российские компании (Натаниэль Ротшильд);   Банк Rothschild AG (Эли Ротшильд, Швейцария);  Concordia B.V. – холдинговая компания, возглавляемая бароном Давидом де Ротшильдом, совладельцами которой являются Лондонский и Парижский банки Ротшильдов, владеющая контрольным пакетом акций холдинговой компании швейцарских Ротшильдов Continuation Holdings of Switzerland, а также всеми акциями американских и канадских банков Ротшильдов;  Холдинговая компания Societe de investments du Nord;  Хэдж-фонд Atticus Capital с капитализацией $14 миллиардов (Натаниэль Ротшильд);  Венгерская девелоперская компания TriGranit - инвестировавшая в российскую недвижимость около $5 миллиардов (Натаниэль Ротшильд – 12%);  Anglo American Corporation of South Africa Ltd – горнопромышленная компании в ЮАР, занимающиеся добычей золота, алмазов, урана и других полезных ископаемых;  Rio Tinto Croup - горнодобывающая компания (уголь, железо, медь, уран, золото, алмазы, алюминий);  De Biers – международная компания по эксплуатации, обработке и распространению алмазов (Эвелин Ротшильд);  Field Fresh Foods - (Эвелин Ротшильд совместно с супругой Лин Форестер);  Сеть ресторанов и отелей RLM (Эли Ротшильд);  Музыкальная компания F7 Music (Энтони Ротшильд, США);  Замки Шату Мутон и Шато Лафит, где производится знаменитое вино Шато Мутон Ротшильд, удостоенное статуса Первого Гран Крю Класса;  Более 100 садов и парков в Европе;  Под контролем либо во владении Ротшильдов находятся также такие издания и средства масс-медиа, как: парижское издательство Presses de la Cite – собственность Ротшильдов;  французская газета Liberation;  газеты Economist, Daily telegraph (Эвелин Ротшильд);  BBC, компания, возглавляемая зятем Эдмунда Ротшильда Маркусом Эгиусом. Перечисленный список компаний далеко не полон, он лишь позволяет примерно оценить степень могущества империи Ротшильдов. Но ведь власть – это не только деньги, компании и имущество, которые можно посчитать. Как в прошлые времена, так и ныне, успех во многом определяется личными связями и хорошо подготовленным общественным мнением. А в этом отношении Ротшильдам нет равных. Так, например жена Эвелина Ротшильда Лин Форестер дружит с Хиллари Клинтон, госсекретарём США, а Жорж Помпиду, бывший президент Франции, работал в своё время директором банка Ротшильда. Вот и новая группа межконфессионального сотрудничества будет объединять усилия ради утверждения мира и многообразия в современном обществе под родительским присмотром барона. Одним словом, если деньги по-прежнему правят миром, то больше всего их у Ротшильдов. Они и правят.