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28 июня, 16:28

Перед открытием фондовых рынков США: фьючерсы на премаркете демонстрируют умеренный рост

Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,426.50 (+0.25%), фьючерс NASDAQ снизился на 0.24% до уровня 5,690.00. Внешний фон нейтральный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию преимущественно в минусе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют преимущественно позитивную динамику. Nikkei 20,130.41 -94.68 -0.47% Hang Seng 25,683.50 -156.49 -0.61% Shanghai 3,173.90 -17.29 -0.54% S&P/ASX 5,755.70 +41.50 +0.73% FTSE 7,435.97 +1.61 +0.02% CAC 5,261.57 +2.99 +0.06% DAX 12,646.88 -24.14 -0.19% Августовские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $44.09 за баррель (-0.34%) Золото торгуется по $1,254.40 за унцию (+0.60%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют умеренный рост, так как распродажи в акциях технологических компаний остановились, а источники ЕЦБ заявили, что рынки не совсем правильно интерпретировали вчерашнее заявление Драги о фискальных стимулах. Напомним, главы ЕЦБ вчера намекнул на возможное завершение программы покупок облигаций. Драги сообщил, что стимулирование будет постепенно сокращаться по мере дальнейшего улучшения ситуации в экономике еврозоны. Кроме того, Драги заявил, что ЕЦБ может проигнорировать временную слабость инфляции. Источники, однако, пояснили, что Драги намеревался просигнализировать о терпимости к периоду более слабой инфляции, а не о надвигающемся ужесточении политики. Инвесторы также продолжают отслеживать ситуацию связанную с глобальной атакой вируса-вымогателя, которая нарушает работу компьютеров в банках и крупных компаниях. Важных сообщений корпоративного характера, способных оказать влияние на динамику широкого рынка, на премаркете отмечено не было. Инвесторы ожидают решений ФРС по планам дивидендных выплат и программ выкупа акций для банковских учреждений, которые будут утверждены после закрытия рынков во второй части стресс-теста ФРС. Ожидается, что в следующем году баки вернут $121 млрд. акционерам. После начала торгов влияние на их ход могут оказать данные по незавершенным сделкам по продажам жилья (14:00 GMT) и запасам сырой нефти (14:30 GMT).Источник: FxTeam

Выбор редакции
28 июня, 14:23

Биржи АТР закрылись в минусе, кроме Австралии, на ослаблении техсектора США

Основные фондовые площадки Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона (АТР) завершили торги среды в "красной" зоне, кроме австралийского S&P/ASX 200, из-за давления на технологический сектор рынков США, свидетельствуют данные торгов.

28 июня, 13:48

Euro Surges As Europe Stocks Slump; Yields Rise After Central Bankers Spook Markets

U.S. index futures point to a slightly higher open, as markets in both Europe and Asian fall.The EUR surges to one year highs as markets continue to reverberate from Draghi's hawkish comments while yields rose around the globe following similar hawkish comments from Fed speakers on Tuesday. Asian stocks closed softer overall with benchmark yields sharply higher following hawkish comment from Draghi and Yellen. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3 percent as declines in technology shares overshadowed gains in banks and raw-materials companies. Samsung Electronics Co., Taiwan Semiconductor and Tencent led the selloff with losses of at least 1.2 percent. Australian 10-year yield jumps as much as nine basis points, their biggest rise since November; while CAD and AUD lead gains in broad-based dollar pullback. PBOC skipped open market operations for fourth day, and drained liquidity fro the market for the 6th day while strengthening the daily CNY fixing by most in almost four weeks; Shanghai Composite closed modestly in the red as Dalian iron ore ended near unchanged after yesterday's torrid gains. Of note were comments by a PBOC adviser, who said he sees no further tightening in 2H monetary policy. In the start of the overnight session, as usual eyes were on the yuan, which was on deck for its biggest two-day gain since June 1, with China’s central bank strengthening its daily fixing by the most in almost four weeks after an overnight drop in the dollar, and the PBOC strengthened its daily reference rate by 0.35% to 6.8053.  The yuan continued to rise on speculation of central bank intervention, with the offshore currency up 0.2 percent after surging 0.6 percent Tuesday. As a reminder, on Tuesday the Yuan surged in afternoon trade amid talk of PBOC intervention. Speaking of the PBOC, the central bank drained a net 50 billion yuan in open-market operations, pulling funds from the financial system for the sixth day in a row. The big action however continues to be the follow through from Draghi's comments on Tuesday which unleashed a hawkish avalanche on Tuesday. As a reminder, Draghi said that “as the economy continues to recover, a constant policy stance will become accommodative, and the central bank can accompany the recovery by adjusting the parameters of its policy instruments – not in order to tighten the policy stance, but to keep it broadly unchanged”. In other words if prices rise as the ECB expect in 2018 ECB policy will become more accommodative as inflation picks up. Draghi also added that “all the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the Euro area” and that “deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones”. The ECB President also cited that risks of “hysteresis effects” had diminished and that “now we can be confident that our policy is working and that those risks have abated”. Draghi also suggested that political winds are now becoming tailwinds. As DB strategists called it, the speech seemed to mark a transition from the “whatever it takes” period to “it will take less” and a potential slow turning point in the direction of travel towards tighter policy. The final day of the Sintra ECB forum is today and a as reminder a policy panel between Draghi, the BoE’s Carney, BoJ’s Kuroda and BoC’s Poloz is due at 1.30pm BST which will be worth watching. The market reaction to Draghi's comments was violent with 10y Bund yields surged +12.5bps to close at 0.368% and back to the highest yield since May 24th. That was the weakest day for Bunds since August 25th 2015 or 22 months. Comparable OATs rose 13.7bps to 0.732% which matches the sell-off on November 10th last year when yields surged higher post Trump’s election victory. Prior to that you’d have to also go back to August 2015 to find as big a sell-off. It was a similar story in the periphery too with yields in Italy, Spain and Portugal up +16.7bps, +12.2bps and +13.3bps respectively. 10y Gilts also surged +7.9bps to 1.088% while the moves also weighed on US Treasuries with 10y yields darting up +6.8bps to 2.206%. Fast forward to Wednesday when the euro touched a one-year high and government bond yields climbed as investors digested a series of hawkish messages from central banks. European stocks sank in early trading as the global selloff in technology companies spread, while German 10Y yields rose as high as 0.40%, nearly doubling in two days, as the curve steepened sharply. The Euro rose to the highest level since last June's Brexit vote and most bonds extended declines. The currency is now up almost 10% this year. The head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, and one of her lieutenants, Patrick Harker, said on Tuesday that they expected to continue raising U.S. interest rates, but it couldn't rally the dollar. That provoked the banking world's single biggest cheerleader for a stronger dollar, Deutsche Bank, to declare the end of the greenback's bull run which dates back to 2014. "I do think the euro now has got quite significant momentum behind it and I think that will build towards the confirmation of some tapering announcement this year. So I would be long the euro on a tactical basis for the rest of the year," JPMorgan Asset Management's Global Market Strategist, David Stubb, said. At the same time core European bonds are the significant area of vulnerability to better euro zone growth and to changes in ECB policy, he told Reuters. "If you are looking at a 10-year maturity and further out, it is a global bond market and the extremely low yields in core Europe stick out alongside Japan and Switzerland as the places that seem stretched in terms of valuation." Not helping the doves this morning was the latest M3 and loan growth data out of Europe, which rose again, with M3 up 5% Y/Y, while Loan Growth rose by 2.6% Y/Y, up from 2.4% the month before, and once again suggesting that Draghi risks falling behind the curve if he doesnt tighten soon. Janet Yellen added to the hawkish momentum as she noted asset valuations look rich and signaled the U.S. economy can withstand higher interest rates, and Treasury yields rose again after the biggest increase since January. Speaking in London, Yellen made a reference to asset valuations being “somewhat rich” by some metrics contributing to a late leg lower for risk assets in the US. However, the big negative catalyst had taken place earlier when the news that the healthcare legislation vote was to be pushed back beyond July 4th hit. Senate majority leader McConnell reflecting what is almost certainly still a lack of votes and clear divisions within the party. That was seen as another blow to the Trump fiscal trade while away from that markets were also spooked by the news of a fresh global cyberattack which has spread and hit government and corporate systems alike. And while Yellen qualified her assessment that asset valuations look high by some measures, the note of caution came just as markets were buffeted by a series of events, including an IMF cut to its U.S. growth forecast, Google suffering the biggest ever EU antitrust fine, a fresh blow to the Republican agenda in Washington and a global cyberattack. “Central banks taking the punch bowl of liquidity away does not bode well for the outlook for volatility in the short term, leading to position adjustments,” Morgan Stanley strategists including Hans Redeker wrote in a note. “Conditions for the emergence of a proper bear market are not yet in place, even so, yesterday’s high trading volume suggests that corrective activity may stay with us for several days.” Futures on the Nasdaq 100 Index retreated in a sign that the selloff in technology shares may not be over, while a drop in oil also weighed on equity markets.  Nasdaq 100 futures expiring in September fell 0.2 percent at 6:03 a.m. in New York, with shares of chipmakers down in premarket trading. Overnight, Wall Street's S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day drop in about six weeks and closed at its lowest point since May 31. It was spooked after the U.S. Senate delayed voting on a healthcare reform bill, rekindling worries about the timeline of Donald Trump's business-friendly policies. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were higher by 0.1% as of 6:30am EDT. The index lost 0.8% Tuesday, the most since May 17. In currencies, the euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.1358 as of 10:02 a.m. in London, after briefly touching $1.1379, the highest level since June 2016. The currency surged 1.4 percent on Tuesday. The dollar index, which gauges the U.S. currency against a basket of six major counterparts, edged down 0.2 percent to 96.227, well below its previous session high of 97.447. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell less than 0.1 percent after declining 0.6 percent in the previous session. The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.4 percent, adding to a 0.4 percent gain on Tuesday. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said in a CNBC interview that interest rate cuts “have done their job” and that levels are now “extraordinarily low.” The weaker dollar helped bolster spot gold, which was up 0.4 percent at 1,251.59 per ounce, and also boosted crude. Oil’s winning streak ended as industry data showed American stockpiles rose: WTI futures fell 0.6 percent to $43.99 after climbing 4 percent in the previous four sessions. Gold rose 0.5 percent to $1,252.84 an ounce, climbing for a second day. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries added three basis points to 2.23 percent after jumping seven basis points Tuesday. The yield on German bunds climbed one basis points, after rising 13 basis points in the previous session for the biggest surge since December 2015. British yields rose four basis points. While there are no major events or central bank speeches, the Fed is set to announce the results of the second part of its annual bank stress test, which will determine whether lenders can increase dividends and share repurchases. Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk EUR/USD breaches 1yr highs post-Draghi yesterday (due again today at 1430BST) EU equities continue to slip with healthcare names seen softer Highlights include comments from slew of central bank speakers including Carney and Poloz, DoE Crude inventories Markets Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,422 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 384.76 MXAP down 0.3% to 154.79 MXAPJ down 0.5% to 504.23 Nikkei down 0.5% to 20,130.41 Topix down 0.3% to 1,614.37 Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 25,683.50 Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,173.20 Sensex down 0.4% to 30,843.25 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 5,755.70 Kospi down 0.4% to 2,382.56 German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.378% Euro up 0.3% to 1.1376 per US$ Brent future up less then 0.1% to 46.69 Italian 10Y yield rose 15.9 bps to 1.768% Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.5 bps to 1.47% Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,252.94 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.22 Top Overnight News Yellen says asset valuations ’somewhat rich’, rates to rise very gradually; Kashkari says economy not on verge of overheating, inflation low BOC’s Poloz expects Canada’s growth to stay above potential; looks as though ’rate cuts have done their job’ PBOC adviser sees no further tightening in 2H monetary policy China 2Q economic growth may be 6.8%, CPI 1.4%: Business Herald Japan PM Abe said to ditch balanced budget pledge to delay sales tax hike RBA could raise rates 8 times in two years, ex-board member Edwards says API inventories according to people familiar w/data: Crude +0.9m; Cushing -0.7m; Gasoline +1.4m; Distillates +0.7m Rate-Cutting Race Among BRICS Outliers Pits Russia, Brazil McConnell Scrambles to Win GOP Votes for Troubled Health Measure Moon Enlists Chaebol Execs to Disarm Trump’s Trade Threat Buffett Renews Attack on Health Bill as ‘Relief for Rich Act’ Toshiba Sues Western Digital for 120 Billion Yen in Damages F-35 Unreliability Risks Strain on Pentagon Budget, Tester Says Google News Redesigns With a Focus on Facts, More User Control Australia Signs A$70m Sustainment Contract for C-17A With Boeing Bluebird Bio Prices 3.81m Shares at $105 Apiece Mattel Accused of ‘Loading Up’ Stores to Bolster Financials Dow, DuPont to Sell Some Assets in Competition Bureau Agreement International Paper to Pay $354m in Kleen Products Settlement Accenture Plans to Spend $1.8B on Acquisitions in 2017: Mint Glenview Said to Call for Changes in Dow-DuPont Deal Plan: WSJ Asian equity markets traded mixed after a slight improvement from the losses on Wall Street where there was a renewed sell-off in tech names and healthcare suffered after the Senate delayed the vote to repeal and replace Obamacare. This weighed on Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) from the open although downside was stemmed by yesterday's JPY weakness, while ASX 200 (+0.6%) was kept afloat by strength in miners and materials stocks. Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) and Hang Seng (-0.3%) were both initially lower after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations for the 4th consecutive session, before mainland sentiment gradually recovered amid an optimistic forecast of 6.8% growth for China this year by Bank of China and after reports that a PBoC adviser expects no further tightening of monetary policy during H2. 10yr JGB are marginally lower despite the risk averse tone in Japan and a moderate BoJ Rinban announcement of JPY 880b1n, while a slight underperformance was seen in the long-end resulting to a mildly steeper curve. Top Asian News China Prepares Bigger Opening to Its $9 Trillion Bond Market Worst Likely Over For Malaysian FX and Rates Markets, CIMB Says H.K. SFC Investigates Short Sellers Who Issue Research Reports Small China Banks Rally As Investors Seen Seeking Low Valuations Japan’s FTC to Take ‘Strict Action’ on LNG Antitrust Violations Cofco, ADM Hit by New Cyberattack That’s Spreading Worldwide Japan Tobacco Faces Supply Shortage as Rivals Pile On In Japan In European stocks, there has been a modest extension seen in EUR/USD this morning, stretching the lead gains to a little shy of 1.1390. The hawkish European equities are trading lower across the board (Eurostoxx 50 -0.8%) in a continuation of the some of the price action seen yesterday, most notably on Wall Street. More specifically, healthcare names are seen softer in Europe after yesterday's announcement that the US healthcare bill vote is to be delayed until after Independence Day. Tech names continue to face selling pressure in the wake of the Supreme court ruling earlier in the week regarding the Trump travel ban while energy names are also adding pressure to indices after yesterday's 851 k build in the API's. From a fixed income perspective, prices have continued their descent (GE 10yr yield +2.4bps) seen since yesterday's more hawkish than anticipated leaning from ECB President Draghi. That said, some market participants have raised the question over whether the central bank head will try and redress the market later to at 1430BST given the extent of the moves yesterday. In terms of performance elsewhere, spreads are broadly tighter to the German benchmark with 10yr French paper tighter by 0.7bps with BTPs bucking the trend (1bps wider to GE 10yr) amid impending supply on Friday. Top European News JPMorgan Reshuffles European Management as Casanueva Retires Asset Management Fee Pressure to Intensify After FCA Report: RBC Draghi Gets Backing in Argument Over How to Best Spur Reforms May’s New U.K. Government to Face First Test on Austerity Deutsche Bank Raises EUR/USD Forecast After Draghi’s Speech Philips to Buy Spectranetics, Starts Buyback of Up to EU1.5B Maersk Has Shut Down Some Systems to Help Contain Cyber Attack In currenices, a modest extension seen in EUR/USD this morning, stretching the lead gains to a little shy of 1.1390. The hawkish takeaways from president's Draghi's speech at the ECB forum continue to ring in the ears, and we continue to wrestle for position for a test on 1.1400, with selling interest aplenty all the way through to 1.1500. EUR gains have been added against the major counterparts across the board, and have been underpinned by the EUR/CHF move above 1.0900 again. EUR/GBP put another dent into the upside ahead of 0.8900, but as we have reported, strong resistance will be reinforced by even stronger levels ahead of 0.9000. This serves to prop up Cable, which tested through 1.2850 in NY yesterday, but with liquidity improved, buyers are having a tough time of it this morning. CAD still probing the downside as we challenge lows ahead of 1.3100. Oil prices, and indeed all commodities have edged higher — partly down to USD weakness — and this 'cycle' has generated the move lower to put the key 1.3000 level on the radar, but it is proving slow going in the meantime. In commodities, as a function of the weaker USD, we see another round of gains seen across the commodity spectrum, where we will lead with the metals market as Copper extends above USD2.65. The lack of momentum is a clear sign of caution, and at these levels unsurprisingly so as the ongoing concerns over global demand linger despite a broadly optimistic outlook from central banks globally. On the day, we are seeing prices coming off better levels — Zinc pulling back a little more than the rest after recent bouts of outperformance. WTI is back above USD44.0 this morning, but we sense USD45.0 will be a challenge as there is no change in the fundamental driver that is the growing rate of US shale production. Gold is close to returning back to levels seen Monday morning, just before the sharp USD20.0 hit, with Silver moving decidedly hesitantly inside a USD16-17 range for now. Looking at the day ahead, in the US data includes the May advance goods trade balance reading, wholesale inventories for May and pending home sales data for May. Away from the data the main focus for markets today will likely be the aforementioned ECB panel debate between Draghi, Carney and Kuroda. Speaking of the Fed, the results from the second part of the Fed’s stress test (known as the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review) will also be out late this afternoon which determines whether banks can increase dividends and conduct share repurchases. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.6% 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $66.0b deficit, prior $67.6b deficit, revised $67.1b deficit 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.5%; Retail Inventories MoM, prior -0.3% 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -1.3%; NSA YoY, est. 0.5%, prior -5.4% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap After a strange few weeks of incredible weather and steamy politics here in the UK I landed back in London late last night to see that normal service has been resumed. Yes it was cold with heavy rain and England had just lost to Germany on penalties in a major football tournament!! After last night's Euro U-21 semi-final loss a quick Google search revealed that Germany has virtually the best penalty shoot-out record in major world football and England one of the worst. If anyone in Germany can tell me why I'd be delighted to know. At the end of every school day are penalties compulsory? Talking of Google there were hundreds of correct answers to my quiz from yesterday as to which song (from one of my favourite albums of all time) is virtually the only song in history to mention one of the most famous economists of all time. The answer was Dignity by  Deacon Blue which mentions Maynard Keynes. I mention Google as it was difficult to ascertain which of the correct answers were a product of knowledge and which were a product of an internet search. Quizzes have certainly got easier and less fun in the internet age. The most amusing answer was those that suggested my favourite song of all time might be "When will I be famous?" by 80s boyband Bros. This song mentions Karl Marx. Thankfully this wasn't the answer I was looking for. Yesterday's comments from Mr Draghi at the ECB forum in Sintra seemed to indicate that he thought the last ECB meeting ended up in a draw and that he wanted to take the first penalty kick in the aftermath. He certainly seemed more upbeat yesterday than in his more balanced press conference that obviously more reflected the views of the committee. The changes were subtle but significant. Before we discuss his comments the impact was clear as bonds across the continent saw one of the biggest sell-offs for many months. Indeed 10y Bund yields surged +12.5bps to close at 0.368% and back to the highest yield since May 24th. That was the weakest day for Bunds since August 25th 2015 or 22 months. Comparable OATs rose 13.7bps to 0.732% which matches the sell-off on November 10th last year when yields surged higher post Trump’s election victory. Prior to that you’d have to also go back to August 2015 to find as big a sell-off. It was a similar story in the periphery too with yields in Italy, Spain and Portugal up +16.7bps, +12.2bps and +13.3bps respectively. 10y Gilts also surged +7.9bps to 1.088% while the moves also weighed on US Treasuries with 10y yields darting up +6.8bps to 2.206%. Specifically, Draghi said that “as the economy continues to recover, a constant policy stance will become accommodative, and the central bank can accompany the recovery by adjusting the parameters of its policy instruments – not in order to tighten the policy stance, but to keep it broadly unchanged”. In other words if prices rise as the ECB expect in 2018 ECB policy will become more accommodative as inflation picks up. Draghi also added that “all the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the Euro area” and that “deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones”. The ECB President also cited that risks of “hysteresis effects” had diminished and that “now we can be confident that our policy is working and that those risks have abated”. Draghi also suggested that political winds are now becoming tailwinds. As our rates strategists’ aptly called it, the speech seemed to mark a transition from the “whatever it takes” period to “it will take less” and a potential slow turning point in the direction of travel towards tighter policy. The final day of the Sintra ECB forum is today and a as reminder a policy panel between Draghi, the BoE’s Carney, BoJ’s Kuroda and BoC’s Poloz is due at 1.30pm BST which will be worth watching. Staying with central banks, it’s not often that Mrs Yellen gets overshadowed but that was the case yesterday with nothing of real interest policy wise to emerge from her London speech. However a reference to asset valuations being “somewhat rich” by some metrics from the Fed Chair did contribute to a late leg lower for risk assets in the US. In fairness though the damage had already been done for markets following a trifecta of other factors earlier in the day. The most significant was perhaps the news that the healthcare legislation vote was to be pushed back beyond July 4th. Senate majority leader McConnell reflecting what is almost certainly still a lack of votes and clear divisions within the party. That was seen as another blow to the Trump fiscal trade while away from that markets were also spooked by the news of a fresh global cyberattack which has  spread and hit government and corporate systems alike. The final variable for markets to deal with was a renewed sell-off in the tech sector. It appeared that the news of a €2.4bn antitrust fine for Google from the European Commission over abusing its near-monopoly  position for online searches in order to give the company an “illegal advantage” played a big role. Alphabet’s share price fell nearly -2.50% while the Nasdaq tumbled -1.61%. That retreat for tech names sent the S&P  500 down -0.81% for its worst day in 6 weeks. Markets were also weak in Europe with the Stoxx 600 closing -0.79%. Credit also gave back some recent performance. CDX IG closed 2bps for its worst day in 6 weeks too while in Europe the iTraxx Main finished 1.5bps wider. It’s worth noting that these moves came despite commodities having a rare strong day across the board. WTI Oil (+1.98%) continued its bounce back, Iron Ore  rallied +5.20%, Copper firmed +1.10% and Gold was +0.20% better off. Refreshing our screens now, with little new news to note, the falls in equity markets in Europe and on Wall Street yesterday has continued this morning into Asia for the most part. The Nikkei (-0.29%), Hang Seng  (-0.71%), Shanghai Comp (-0.41%) and Kospi (-0.30%) have all dropped into the red however the ASX (+0.32%) has bucked the trend in firming up. Bonds have been heavily sold across Asia with 10y yields in the likes of Australia and New Zealand 7bps higher Moving on. On Monday my team published a report “iTraxx Financial Senior: Where Next?” which should be in your inbox. The report looks at what is behind the recent strong outperformance of the iTraxx Financial Senior index. Firstly, it explains the basics of the regulatory changes that have resulted in a change of the index rules for the upcoming roll, as announced last week, which will change the risk of the index meaningfully. It looks into single-name CDS repricing within the index following the announcement and also contrasts the performance of the index with cash bonds. Finally, it concludes with views about where the index is heading in the near term, where the September roll might price and the likely performance of the current series after the roll. Email [email protected] if you'd like a copy. In terms of other news from yesterday, there was some focus also on the BoE following the release of the semi-annual Financial Stability Review. The most notable takeaway was an increase in the counter-cyclical capital buffer applied to banks to 0.5% from 0% and a guide to a possible increase to 1% in the November meeting. The BoE pointed to ‘pockets of risk’ despite the overall risk environment being classified as at a ‘standard level’. Specifically there was mention of the rapid increase in consumer credit and also – unsurprisingly – the prevailing uncertainty from Brexit negotiations. Before we look at the day ahead, yesterday’s macro data – while flying mostly under the radar – was actually relatively upbeat. The conference board’s headline consumer confidence index for June was reported as rising 1.3pts to 118.9 with the current conditions index rising 5.7pts to 146.3 and the highest since 2001. Offsetting that however was a drop in the expectations index of 1.7pts to 100.6 and to the lowest since January. Away from that the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index rose 6pts in June to +7 (vs. +5 expected). Meanwhile the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index revealed that house prices rose +0.3% mom in April the 20 largest cities. Finally closer to home in the UK the CBI’s distributive trades survey for June revealed that a net 12% of retailers reported sales growth in June which was up 3% from May. Looking at the day ahead, this morning the early data due to be released is out of Germany with the May import price index reading and then the UK with the latest Nationwide house price index data for June. M3 money supply data for the Euro area is then out later this morning. Across the pond in the US this afternoon's data includes the May advance goods trade balance reading, wholesale inventories for May and pending home sales data for May. Away from the data the main focus for markets today will likely be the aforementioned ECB panel debate between Draghi, Carney and Kuroda. The Fed’s Williams also speaks this morning. Speaking of the Fed, the results from the second part of the Fed’s stress test (known as the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review) will also be out late this afternoon which determines whether banks can increase dividends and conduct share repurchases.

28 июня, 11:50

Азиатские рынки закрылись на отрицательной территории

В среду, 28 июня, азиатские фондовые индексы продемонстрировали отрицательную динамику по итогам торговой сессии на фоне падения акций фармацевтических компаний, а также бумаг, относящихся к сектору IT. Тем не менее, поддержку азиатским рынкам пытались оказать бумаги сырьевого и банковского сектора. Также стоит отметить, что участники рынка негативно восприняли комментарии президента ФРБ Филадельфии Партика Харкера, который сообщил, что ФРС ожидает еще одного повышения процентной ставки до конца текущего года. Важной макроэкономической статистики по региону сегодня опубликовано не было. Сводный индекс региона MSCI Asia Pacific закрылся на отрицательной территории, просев на 0,2%. Японский Nikkei 225 упал на 0,49%, китайский Shanghai Composite уменьшился на 0,56%, гонконгский Hang Seng покраснел на 0,61%, южнокорейский KOSPI снизился на 0,39%, а австралийский ASX 200 увеличился на 0,73%.

27 июня, 16:28

Перед открытием фондовых рынков США: фьючерсы на премаркете незначительно снижаются

Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,434.50 (-0.06%), фьючерс NASDAQ снизился на 0.40% до уровня 5,755.25. Внешний фон негативный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию разнонаправленно. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют негативную динамику. Nikkei 20,225.09 +71.74 +0.36% Hang Seng 25,839.99 -31.90 -0.12% Shanghai 3,191.51 +6.07 +0.19% S&P/ASX 5,714.19 -5.97 -0.10% FTSE 7,433.86 -12.94 -0.17% CAC 5,259.10 -36.65 -0.69% DAX 12,689.72 -81.11 -0.64% Августовские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $43.98 за баррель (+1.38%) Золото торгуется по $1,249.80 за унцию (+0.27%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете незначительно снижаются, так как распродажа акций технологических компаний продолжается, тогда как инвесторы готовятся к выступлению главы Федеральной резервной системы США Йеллен (17:00 GMT). Речь Йеллен представляет особый интерес для участников рынка, так как многих интересует, считает ли она, что ослабление экономики США в последнее время является не более чем временным явлением. Кроме того, инвесторы надеются получить подсказку поддерживает ли глава американского регулятора прогноз FOMC относительно еще одного повышения ставки в этом году. Акции технологического сектора испытывают давление со стороны продавцов из-за опасений относительно высоких валюаций. Это побуждает инвесторов переключаться на так называемые "оборонительные" акции с высокими дивидендными выплатами, такие как акции компаний сектора коммунальных услуг. Кроме того, в фокусе находится отчет S&P, который показал, что цены на дома на одну семью в США ускорились более медленными темпами, чем ожидалось в апреле. Сводный индекс S&P / Case-Shiller для 20 мегаполисов вырос в апреле на 5.7% по сравнению с предыдущим годом, после увеличения на 5.9% в марте. Результаты апреля оказались ниже прогноза экономистов роста на 5.9%. Среди сообщений корпоративного характера стоит отметить новость о том, что ЕК оштрафовала Google Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) на рекордные 2.4 млрд. евро ($2.7 млрд.) за нарушение антимонопольного законодательства, так как компания систематически предлогала собственные результаты поиска выше, чем конкурентов. Антимонопольный регулятор ЕС заявил, что Google должен внести изменения в параметры работы в течение 90 дней или получит дополнительный штраф. В Google сообщили, что не согласны с выводами ЕК и рассматривают возможность подачи апелляции. Акции GOOG на премаркете снизились на 1%. После начала торгов влияние на их ход (помимо выступления главы ФРС) могут оказать данные по индикатору уверенности потребителей (14:00 GMT), а также комментарии президента ФРБ Филадельфии Патрика Харкера (15:15). После закрытия торговой сессии инвесторы обратят внимание на выступление президента ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари (21:30 GMT). Информационно-аналитический отдел ТелеТрейдИсточник: FxTeam

27 июня, 13:57

"Hawkish Shock" From Draghi, PBOC Intervention Fail To Move Futures As Attention Turns To Yellen

S&P futures were fractionally in the red, pressured by a drop in European shares following what several desks called a "hawkish shock" speech by Mario Draghi at the annual ECB forum in Portugal, even as oil rose for a fourth day, boosted by favoriable remarks from China's premier Li, while the Yuan surged 0.4% amid speculation of more PBOC interference in the yuan. The overnight session was divided in two parts: the early European focus on a spike higher in Chinese yuan, with some speculating on PBOC intervention, others cite tightening in yuan forward curve. Metals and crude both rallied broadly in response, USD pushed weaker against G-10. Speaking of the sharp move in both the onshore and offshore Yuan, Ken Cheung, a currency strategist at Mizuho told Bloomberg “This seems like intervention" and added that  "They may be eager to keep the onshore yuan quarter-close to near 6.8 per dollar. The quarter-end rate may be an important indicator for foreign central bank reserve managers to consider adding the yuan as assets. Other reasons could be maintaining a strong yuan outlook before the launch of the Hong Kong bond connect." The initial PBOC-inspired euphoria was later doused by another central bank, this time the ECB, when a hawkish Draghi speech drove markets, sending the EUR/USD back to YTD highs, and leading to a sharp steepening in German 2s10s and Euribor curves. With the help of the sliding dollar, the Euro is now on pace for its best quarter in six years. European equity markets open lower led by sector-specific news. As noted earlier, the German auto sector was hit after supplier Schaeffler issued a surprisingly ugly profit warning, Deutsche Telekom weighed on Telecoms sector though basic resources shares were among those bucking the trend as commodities advanced. U.K. banks briefly sold off after BOE raises countercyclical capital buffer to 0.5% (and 1.0% as of November), while Google was down -2.6% in premarket trading after the EU competition commissioner announced a record €2.4BN fine for antitrust issues and skewing search results. Gold rebounded after an apparently erroneous order triggered a plunge in the price on Monday. The Chinese yuan surged both onshore and overseas amid speculation of central bank intervention. Treasuries slipped before an appearance by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. With Draghi's hawkish outlook shocking markets, it is now up to Yellen. As Bloomberg notes, "traders will be looking to Yellen for clues on the outlook for interest rates and the American economy, especially after weakness in data yesterday added to concerns about the strength of growth. Some investors worry the Fed is taking too rosy a view as it sets the path for increasing borrowing costs. European Central Bank President Draghi struck a cautiously optimistic tone for the euro area, noting a “strengthening and broadening recovery” but stressing the need for prudence in adjusting policy." Elsewhere, as reported overnight, Brazilian President Michel Temer was charged with corruption in a highly anticipated development that may put the embattled leader of Latin America’s largest economy on trial. Temer, who has denied the charges, could lose his job if indicted and found guilty. India and Singapore reopened after holidays but many markets, including in Malaysia, Indonesia and most of the Middle East remain closed. Futures on the S&P 500 Index fell 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge rose less than one point on Monday. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4 percent. In currencies, the euro surged 0.6 percent to $1.1251. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3 percent after gaining 0.1 percent in the previous session. The British pound added 0.1 percent to $1.2737. In commodities,  WTI rose 0.8% to $43.73 a barrel, adding to a three-day rally following oil’s drop into a bear market. Gold increased 0.5 percent to $1,250.71 an ounce. The precious metal sank almost 1 percent on Monday. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 2.16%, after dropping less than one basis point on Monday. European government bonds dropped across the board, with the yield on benchmark French bonds climbing six basis points and that of Germany four basis points. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk: European equity markets trade lower amid hawkish comments from ECB's Draghi Bank of England Financial Stability Report; Countercyclical buffer for UK banks raised from 0.00% to 0.50% Highlights include Fed's Yellen, Harker and Kashkari Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,432.80 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 387.31 MXAP up 0.1% to 155.78 MXAPJ unchanged at 507.63 Nikkei up 0.4% to 20,225.09 Topix up 0.4% to 1,619.02 Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 25,839.99 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,191.20 Sensex down 0.9% to 30,864.71 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,714.19 Kospi up 0.1% to 2,391.95 Brent futures up 0.8% to $46.19/bbl Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,252.19 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.4% to 97.01 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 385.62 German 10Y yield rose 3.4 bps to 0.279% Euro up 0.6% to 1.1243 per US$ Italian 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 1.609% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.5 bp to 1.382% Top Overnight News ECB’s Draghi: factors dampening inflation are on the whole temporary; the central bank can accompany the recovery by adjusting the parameters of its policy instruments, not in order to tighten the policy stance, but to keep it broadly unchanged U.S. GSEs: senators Corker and Warner working on a plan to break up Fannie and Freddie BOE: raises countercyclical capital buffer to 0.5% from 0.0%, plans further raise to 1.0% in November Canada: U.S. to impose additional tariffs on Canadian lumber imports China Premier Li: economy keeps steady growth with improvement in 2Q; continues stable positive trend in 2017 Brazil: President Temer charged with corruption by top prosecutor Hong Kong small-cap stock plunge wipes out $6.1 billion in value Dimon Says JPMorgan Headcount to Keep Rising Despite Automation Sprint Jumps on Report Deutsche Telekom Favors T-Mobile Merger; Sprint Said in Talks With Charter, Comcast on Wireless Deal Stada Plunges as $5.9 Billion Bid Fails to Lure Investors Li Says China to Meet Growth Goals, Vows Free Trade Support Draghi Defends ECB Stimulus Saying Jobs Matter Most for Equality Deutsche Telekom Won’t Sell BT Group Stake, CEO Hoettges Says Deutsche Bank Wasn’t Only ‘Mirror’ Trader: Russian Central Bank Germany Asks Opel to Update Zafira 1.6l Diesel Engine Software Volkswagen, Nvidia to Cooperate on Mobility Services Volvo Cars, Autoliv Add Nvidia as Partner on Self- Driving Autos Spanish Lender Bankia Agrees to Buy BMN in All- Stock Deal Chemicals M&A Still Hot Topic in Europe, U.S., Citi Says Hollywood Said to Be Auditing China’s Box-Office for First Time Jorge Mas Plans to Bid $1b-$1.1b for Miami Marlins: Fox Business Morgan Stanley Raises Alcoa Price Target, Cuts Cliffs Apple Acquires Eye-Tracking Company SensoMotoric For AR Tech Asia equities traded mostly in the green following a similar close on wall St., where financials outperformed as Fed comments backed the FOMC to continue hiking rates gradually, while the tech sector lagged after the US Supreme Court reinstated much of Trump's travel ban. ASX 200 (-0.2%) saw broad-based weakness with gold miners also suffering from yesterday's selling in the precious metal, while Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) was buoyed by a weaker JPY. Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) and Hang Seng (-0.1%) were indecisive with stronger Industrial Profit growth counterbalanced by the PBoC refraining from liquidity injections for a 3rd consecutive day. 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with some mild upside seen despite the positive risk tone in Japan. Furthermore, the curve steepened with outperformance in the short-end following a 2yr bond auction which saw increased demand from prior as the b/c surged to 6.79 vs. Prey. 5.06. Chinese Premier Li stated that China is able to meet major economic targets this year and that China will ease market entry restrictions, as well as deepen reforms. Furthermore, Premier Li also stated that will maintain stable macro-policies and will not resort to massive stimulus. (Newswires) Top Asian News Hong Kong Small Cap Stock Plunge Wipes Out $6.1 Billion in Value Cotton Crop in Top Grower Seen at 3-Year High on Local Price China Stocks Reverse Drop in Afternoon as Consumer Shares Gain Russia Has Plan for North Korea to Give Up Nuclear Program: RIA China Said to Discuss VAT Exemption for Asset Management Firms Noble Group Slides as Fitch Sees Real Possibility of Default Exporters Lead Advance in Japanese Stocks as Yen Maintained Loss EU bourses saw some bearish pressure on the back of Draghi's comments, as all European majors trade in the red. Telecoms lag amid morning reports stating that Sprint said to be in exclusive talks with Charter, subsequently putting talks with T-Mobile US (TMUS) on hold (DTE GY holds a stake in TMUS). Fixed Income markets saw a subdued morning; however, a somewhat hawkish Draghi has weighed on European paper. The 10y Bund has been the main driver in the move, trading at session lows, down now over 20 ticks on the session. Bond trading is likely to focus on central bank speech today, with Yellen set to speak later in the session. Top European News Bankia, Banco Mare Nostrum Boards Sign Merger Agreement Nomura to Set Up German Unit in Preparation for Brexit Euro Jumps; Draghi Sees Temporary Factors Weighing on Inflation U.K. Grocers Back in Growth as Brits Pay More for Their Shopping Italian Business Confidence Unexpectedly Rises On Better Outlook European Miners Advance as Iron Ore Jumps Most in Four Months North Korea Sanctions Violations Trigger Fines at Latvian Banks Petrofac Not Getting Paid for Oil Sales From Greater Stella Area In currencies, it has been a lively morning for the EUR as the speech from president Draghi at the ECB forum on central banking was met positively. Traders took their cue from the comments highlighting the strengthening and broadening Euro area recovery and that deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones. He also stated — again — that monetary accommodation is still required and that adjustment to policy will need to be gradual. Nevertheless, the market is still positioning for an eventual reining in of stimulus, and will continue to buy dips in EUR/USD and EUR/GBP, with EUR/JPY back at the session highs after a brief dip this morning. EUR/USD still faces as wall of selling interest into 1.1300, but for EUR/GBP, uncertain future in the UK makes for a comfortable buy in the near term, with the market having bid this cross rate well off the pre 0.8700 support highlighted in the past week or so. Still no major direction to discern in Cable, and we remain right in the middle of the broader 1.2400-1.3000 limits we see playing out until we get some fresh colour/news on Brexit. The rate policy ahead is being discounted to a larger degree despite the anticipated shift on the vote split. Pre 1.2800 still very well offered, but demand ahead of 1.2700 to note also. In commodities, gold has recovered some of the heavy drop suffered in early Monday trade, in what is believed to have been a stop chase or errant volumes entered. We are back above USD1250.00 this morning, but we see the USD based weakness tempered by the steady risk tone. Silver is also steady in the upper USD16's for now. Base metals show modest gains on the day, having seen decent gains over the last few days, and with reports of steel mill closures in China, iron ore has recovered a little more today. Copper is still holding circa USD2.64-5 this morning, so net little changed over the last 24 hours, with Zinc and Lead outperforming on the morning so far. Oil prices have also stabilised in the near term, but with little change to the overall backdrop of rising US production, traders will be wary of riding this latest move higher. WTI has held off USD44 so far. Looking at the day ahead, we will receive the June consumer confidence reading (expected to edge down to 116.0 from 117.9) along with the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index print for June and S&P/Case-Shiller house price index reading for April. Also of note today will be comments from Fed Chair Yellen at 6pm BST when she is due to speak in London on “Global Economic Issues”. Q&A is also expected to follow. The Fed’s Harker is also due to speak in London at 4pm while Williams speaks this morning at 9am BST and Kashkari also speaks at 10.30pm BST. US Event and Central Bank Calendar 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.5%, prior 0.87%;  YoY NSA, est. 5.9%, prior 5.89% 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 116, prior 117.9; Present Situation, prior 140.7; Expectations, prior 102.6 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 5, prior 1 11am: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Economy in London 1pm: Fed’s Yellen Speaks on Global Economic Issues in London 5:30pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Townhall Event in Houghton, Michigan DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap While there wasn’t too much song and dance in markets yesterday, US politics was more of a talking point. Early in the day we learnt firstly that President Trump’s travel ban had been mostly cleared by the US Supreme Court which in turn allows it to take effect this week. Press reports were calling it a ‘partial victory’ for Trump insofar as the ban will take effect on people from the 6 nations concerned who lack a “bona fide relationship” in the US. After the close the focus then swiftly turned over to the healthcare debate with the findings from the CBO on the proposed bill. The headlines were largely dominated by the finding that an additional 22 million Americans would be left without insurance in a decade under the proposal, compared to 23 million in the House plan that passed in May. The CBO also found that the bill would lower the deficit by $321bn over the same period which compares to a $119bn reduction under the House bill. Significantly, following the CBO findings 3 Republican senators announced that they would block the bill from advancing. As a reminder, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can only afford a maximum of two dissenters. McConnell is still aiming for a vote on the measures before the July 4th recess so it’ll be worth keeping an eye on how things progress. Closer to home in the UK we finally learned that PM May’s Conservatives party had agreed to a pact with Northern Ireland’s DUP. The BBC reported that the pact included an extra £1bn in funding for Northern Ireland over the next 2 years. Staying with the UK, yesterday May’s government published the citizen’s rights plans in a 20 page report following talks last week. The EU’s Chief Negotiator Michal Barnier did however respond to the plan by saying that “more ambition, clarity and guarantees needed than in today’s UK position”. The EU’s Tusk also called it “below expectations” while Germany’s Merkel said it was a “good start” but “not a breakthrough”. So those talks will likely drag on. Over in markets yesterday, the Italy bank rescue over the weekend coupled with some decent data in Germany (more on that later) combined to help European equities start the week on the front foot. The Stoxx 600 firmed +0.37% while Italy’s FTSE MIB rallied +0.81% (with Italian Banks up +2.43%). BTPs also rallied 3bps at the 10y which compared to a much more mixed session for the rest of the periphery. US equities got off to an equally positive start however faded as the session drew to a close. The S&P 500 ended +0.03% with the VIX also closing below 10 (at 9.90) for the seventh time this year, while in bond land Treasuries were a basis point or two lower across the curve not helped by some soft durable and capital goods orders data (again more on that later). The Fed’s Dudley also spoke although largely focused his remarks about effective communication so far around balance sheet strategy and the lack of any market response. Coming back to Italy, in credit yesterday we saw a notable rally in Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca senior bonds after the weekend rescue package. After trading around 86c on Friday the news over the  week helped Vicenza’s 2.75% 2020 senior bonds rally all the way back above par yesterday and in fact close just above 102c. Veneto’s 4% 2019 senior bonds also rallied 19pts yesterday to close at 104c. The latter traded as low as 74c just a couple of weeks ago. The move to protect senior bondholders was also reflected in a 2bp rally for the iTraxx Senior Fins index to 51.7bps while Sub Fins underperformed (+0.5bps to 129.5bps) with Vicenza and Vento sub debt largely getting wiped out. This news hopefully continues to help support our financials over non-financials trade. We still think the former offer value. As a reminder our other big trade at the moment is Euro IG over HY. As discussed yesterday we wonder whether the recent US energy sector sell-off will help this trade too by creating a little contagion into other HY sectors and currencies. Staying with credit. The latest weekly ECB CSPP holdings data was out yesterday. They are not being very predictable at the moment and it was another week of below par purchases averaging €300mn/day vs. the long-term average of €365mn/day. However although the CSPP/PSPP ratio was down to 12.1% (from the previous week's 12.7%), the average since April has been 13.2% which still compares favourably with 11.6% before then. After a strong May for CSPP, perhaps corresponding with high supply, June has seen below average purchases. So the more recent data suggests that the ECB are tapering corporate purchases but perhaps not as much as government equivalents. Refreshing our screens this morning, there’s not a huge amount of direction for bourses in Asia as we type. While the Nikkei (+0.30%), Hang Seng (+0.14%) and Kospi (+0.17%) are posting modest gains, bourses in China are flat and the ASX is -0.33%. Data in China this morning, without moving the dial, was supportive with industrial profits rising to +16.7% yoy in May (from +14.0% in April). Elsewhere Oil (+0.37%) has continued to build on the recent bounce-back from last week’s lows (currently at $43.53/bbl after touching $42.05/bbl on Wednesday). There is also some news to report out of Brazil with the announcement early  this morning that President Michel Temer has been indicted for corruption. Jumping back to that macro data we mentioned earlier, yesterday in the US we learned that headline durable goods fell -1.1% mom in May and a bit more than expected (-0.6% expected). A big decline in aircraft orders played a part although the ex-transportation reading also disappointed after revealing that orders rose just +0.1% mom (vs. +0.4% expected). The closely watched core capex orders print was also soft (-0.2% mom vs. +0.4% expected). Away from that, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index fell 2.2pts in June to +15.0 (vs. +16.0 expected) with the new orders index in particular declining a fairly steep 8.5pts. As alluded to earlier, there was however some better news in Germany. The headline IFO business climate reading for June climbed 0.5pts to 115.1 (vs. 114.5 expected) and in doing so hit a new post reunification high. Components for expectations and current assessment were also firmer. Our economists in Germany noted that the data points to a solid rise in Q2 GDP and have now lifted their forecast to +0.6% qoq from +0.4%. That has also had the effect of lifting their 2017 forecast to +1.6% yoy from +1.3%. In terms of the day ahead, this morning in Europe the only data of note due out is from the UK where the CBI’s distributive trades survey for June is released. Also of note is the BoE’s Financial Stability Report due at 10.30am BST with Governor Carney then scheduled to speak shortly after. In the US this afternoon we will receive the June consumer confidence reading (expected to edge down to 116.0 from 117.9) along with the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index print for June and S&P/Case-Shiller house price index reading for April. Also of note today will be comments from Fed Chair Yellen at 6pm BST when she is due to speak in London on “Global Economic Issues”. Q&A is also expected to follow. The Fed’s Harker is also due to speak in London at 4pm while Williams speaks this morning at 9am BST and Kashkari also speaks at 10.30pm BST. The ECB’s Draghi will make an introductory speech at the ECB forum in Sintra too.

27 июня, 08:40

Японские акции растут на снижении иены

Большая часть азиатских акций росла на снижении иены, вызвавшей рост японских акций перед выстпулением главы ФРС Джанет Йеллен. Нефть удерживала рост после трех дней отскока. Японский Topix рос третий день подряд, иена сохраняла снижение против доллара за понедельник. Акции южнокорейских ритейлеров также пошли вверх по мере достижения уровнем потребительского доверия максимума за 6 лет. Бразильский фонд акций рос в ходе торгов в Токио после того, как бразильскому президенту Мишелу Темеру были предъявлены обвинения в коррупции. Трежерис росли в понедельник после неожиданного снижения заказов на производственное оборудование в США. Золото вызвало большой интерес у участников рынка после того, как предположительно ошибочный ордер спровоцировал обвал драгметалла и рост объема сделок. Снижение базовых заказов на товары длительного пользования в США усилило опасения вокруг экономического роста США после недавнего разгрома на рынке нефти и признаков слабой инфляции. Некоторые инвесторы опасаются, что ФРС придерживается слишком оптимистичных взглядов на экономику, прокладывая себе путь для дальнейшего ужесточения политики. Японский индекс Topix вырос на 0.5% по состоянию на 12:57 в Токио, прокладывая себе путь к максимальному уровню закрытия с августа 2015 года. Австралийский S&P/ASX 200 снизился на 0.1%, сингапурский Straits Times вырос на 0.4%. Южнокорейский Kospi добавил 0.3%. Гонконгский Hang Seng подрос на 0.1%,  Shanghai Composite просел на 0.1%. Иена демонстрировала плоскую динамику на 111.89 после снижения на 0.5% в понедельник. Индекс доллара Bloomberg демонстрировал незначительные изменения динамики после роста на 0.1% в течение предыдущей сессии. Japan Stocks Climb on Yen Losses, Bloomberg, Jun 27Источник: FxTeam

26 июня, 16:20

Перед открытием фондовых рынков США: фьючерсы на премаркете умеренно повышаются

Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,441.25 (+0.26%), фьючерс NASDAQ повысился на 0.47% до уровня 5,839.75. Внешний фон позитивный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию в плюсе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют позитивную динамику. Nikkei 20,153.35 +20.68 +0.10% Hang Seng 25,871.89 +201.84 +0.79% Shanghai 3,186.05 +28.17 +0.89% S&P/ASX 5,720.16 +4.29 +0.08% FTSE 7,471.97 +47.84 +0.64% CAC 5,318.50 +52.38 +0.99% DAX 12,818.73 +85.32 +0.67% Августовские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $43.12 за баррель (+0.26%) Золото торгуется по $1,239.70 за унцию (-1.33%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете умеренно повышаются на фоне роста нефтяных котировок и слабых данных по заказам на товары длительного пользования за май. Как показал отчет Министерства торговли, новые заказы на основные капитальные товары произведенные в США неожиданно упали в мае, тогда как поставки также снизились, что говорит о потере импульса в обрабатывающем секторе на полпути во втором квартале. Согласно данным отчета, заказы на необоронные капитальные товары, за исключением самолетов, внимательно отслеживаемого датчика для планов деловых расходов, снизились на 0.2%. Эти так называемые основные заказы на капитальные товары были пересмотрены, и показали увеличение на 0.2% за апрель. Ранее сообщалось, что они выросли на 0.1%. В то же время, поставки капитальных товаров, используемые для расчета расходов на оборудование в государственном измерении ВВП, снизились на 0.2% в прошлом месяце после роста на 0.1% в апреле. Экономисты прогнозировали, что основные заказы на капитальные товары в мае вырастут на 0.3%. Общие заказы на товары длительного пользования, товары от тостеров до самолетов, которые рассчитаны на срок службы три года или дольше, упали на 1.1% после снижения на 0.9% в апреле. Цены на нефть отскочили от семимесячных минимумов на прошлой неделе. Однако их дальнейший рост продолжают сдерживать данные, свидетельствующие о неуклонном ростом поставок в США и существенных глобальных запасах. Недавнее падение нефтяных котировок также вызвало обеспокоенность по поводу низкой инфляции в США, которая упорно остается ниже целевого показателя ФРС в 2%. Напомним, ФРС повысил ставки в этом месяце во второй раз в этом году и, как ожидается, снова поднимет их. Фьючерсы оценивают шансы повышение ставок к декабрю близко 50%. Глава ФРС Джанет Йеллен выступит в Лондоне во вторник, и инвесторы будут искать в ее словах подсказки относительно перспектив дальнейшего ужесточения политики центробанка, после того, как в последние дни другие представители ФРС высказали неоднозначные мнения. В понедельник президент ФРБ Сан-Франциско Джон Уильямс заявил, что регулятору необходимо постепенно повышать ставки, или экономика рискует перегреться. Глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли отметил, что недавнее сужение кредитных спрэдов, рекордные цены акций и падение доходности облигаций могут побудить ФРС продолжать ужесточать политику США. Важных сообщений корпоративного характера, способных оказать влияние на динамику широкого рынка, на премаркете отмечено не было.Источник: FxTeam

26 июня, 11:35

Тайваньский индекс Taiex достиг максимума за 27 лет

В понедельник, 26 июня, азиатские фондовые индексы продемонстрировали преимущественно положительную динамику по итогам торговой сессии благодаря отскоку цен на "черное золото". Также дополнительную поддержку рынкам оказал рост акций IT-сектора. Также стоит отметить, что торги в Индии, Малайзии, Индонезии, Сингапуре и на Филиппинах не проходили в связи с празднованием окончания Рамадана. Из макроэкономической статистики в Японии был опубликован индекс опережающих экономических индикаторов, который в мае составил 104,2 пункта, тогда как аналитики прогнозировали показатель на уровне 104,5 пункта. Сводный индекс региона MSCI Asia Pacific прибавил 0,3%. Японский Nikkei 225 увеличился на 0,09%, китайский Shanghai Composite подскочил на 0,87%, гонконгский Hang Seng позеленел на 0,79%, южнокорейский KOSPI подрос на 0,42%, а австралийский ASX 200 увеличился на 0,08%.

26 июня, 09:44

Сырье и технологии поддержали рынки Азии

Рост акций технологических компаний и и стабилизация цен на сырьевые товары способствовали росту фондовых рынков Азии, сообщает MarketWatch.

26 июня, 09:44

Сырье и технологии поддержали рынки Азии

Рост акций технологических компаний и и стабилизация цен на сырьевые товары способствовали росту фондовых рынков Азии, сообщает MarketWatch.

26 июня, 09:08

Азиатские акции прибавляют на росте нефти третий день подряд

Азиатские акции росли по мере восстановления акций технологического сектора, тогда как нефть росла третью сессию подряд после вхождения на медвежий рынок на прошлой неделе. Акции от Южной Кореи до Гонконга росли по мере сохранения фьючерсов выше $43 за баррель. Акции технологического сектора демонстрировали незначительные изменения против доллара. Фунт рос четвертый день подряд на фоне переговоров Brexit, тогда как лидерство Мэй в этом процессе остается под угрозой. Отсутствие каких-либо катализаторов на выходных толкает инвесторов к ожиданию новых намеков со стороны центральных банков в отношении будущих политических курсов в некоторых крупнейших экономиках мира. Президент ФРС Сан-Франциско Джон Уильямс говорил о дальнейшем постепенном повышении процентных ставок, объявив о том, что он ожидает роста инфляции до целевых 2% ЦБ уже в следующем году по мере снижения безработицы. Позже президент ЕЦБ Драги выступит в Португалии перед тем, как председатель ФРС Йеллен выступит в Лондоне во вторник. Марка WTI выросла на 1.2% до $43.52 за баррель по состоянию на 14:12 в Токио. Фьючерсы выросли на 2.3% в течение последних трех дней после снижения более чем на 20% с февральского максимума. Индекс Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона MSCI вырос на 0.3%. Акции Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. подскочили на 6.2%, акции Samsung Electronics Co. выросли на 1.4%, возглавив рост среди акций технологического сектора. Японский Topix вырос на 0.1%. Австралийский S&P/ASX 200 вырос на 0.1%, южнокорейский Kospi добавил 0.4%, устремившись к историческому максимуму. Asia Stocks Advance as Crude Gains for Third Day, Bloomberg, Jun 26Источник: FxTeam

26 июня, 06:40

Ситуация на фондовых площадках Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона:

Фондовые индексы Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона торгуются в основном в зеленой зоне, так как падение доходности казначейских облигаций США привело к снижению курса доллара. Также инвесторы ожидают публикации данных по инфляции в Европе и США, которые выйдут на этой неделе. Учитывая недавние оценки по инфляции, которые на удивление ухудшаются, рынки скептически относятся к тому, что ФРС будет проводить еще одно повышение ставки в этом году. Между тем, цены на нефть выросли в ходе азиатских торгов после снижения в течение пяти недель подряд. Торговая активность в ​​Азии остается слабой, так как многие рынки в регионе закрыты на праздники. Котировки на Токийской фондовой бирже растут, в частности, на фоне повышения американского индекса NASDAQ, который отражает ситуацию на рынке акций высокотехнологичных компаний. Многие из них тесно связаны с японскими поставщиками и разработчиками. В начале торгов стоимость акций компании Nintendo выросла на 1,5%. Бумаги Toyota также подорожали на 0,2%, а Sony - на 0,9%. С сегодняшнего дня Токийская фондовая биржа приостановила торги акциями Takata - производителя подушек безопасности - в связи с подачей заявления в суд с целью получения защиты от банкротства в связи с неспособностью выплатить долг перед кредиторами, который составляет более $9,02 млрд. NIKKEI 20157.42 +24.75 +0.12% SHANGHAI 3174.78 +16.90 +0.54% HSI 25769.62 +99.57 +0.39% ASX 200 5711.80 -4.07 -0.07% KOSPI 2385.64 +7.04 +0.30% NZ50 7586.14 +32.50 +0.43% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

23 июня, 16:27

Перед открытием фондовых рынков США: фьючерсы на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения

Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,434.00 (+0.09%), фьючерс NASDAQ снизился на 0.03% до уровня 5,783.75. Внешний фон негативный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию разнонаправленно. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют негативную динамику. Nikkei 20,132.67 +22.16 +0.11% Hang Seng 25,670.05 -4.48 -0.02% Shanghai 3,157.43 +9.98 +0.32% S&P/ASX 5,715.88 +9.92 +0.17% FTSE 7,424.25 -15.04 -0.20% CAC 5,257.53 -24.40 -0.46% DAX 12,704.30 -89.70 -0.70% Августовские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $42.86 за баррель (+0.28%) Золото торгуется по $1,258.60 за унцию (+0.74%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения, так как инвесторы ожидают выхода важных экономических данных и комментарии нескольких представителей ФРС, тогда как цены на нефть продолжают повышаться. Нефть отскочила от 10-месячных минимумов, однако пока не смогла ликвидировать потери за неделю. Важных сообщений корпоративного характера, способных оказать влияние на динамику широкого рынка, на премаркете отмечено не было. Стоимость акций крупнейших банков повышается на фоне обнародованных накануне результатов стресс-тестов ФРС в соответствии с законом Додда-Франка. Федеральная резервная система США заявила вчера, что все 34 банка, которые подверглись стресс-тестам, смогут кредитовать экономику, даже если безработица увеличится до 10%, а цены на жилье упадут. Таким образом, уже третий год подряд регулятор заявляет, что все банки будут поддерживать требуемые уровни капитала в случае экономического шторма. Банки США не только сумели увеличить прибыль по сравнению с прошлым годом, но и выплатили почти рекордные дивиденды. На премаркете акции Bank of America (BAC) повысились на 1.1%, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) - на 0.9%, Citigroup (С) - на 0.9%. После начала торгов влияние на их ход могут оказать данные по индексам PMI для производственного сектора и сферы услуг (13:45 GMT), статистика по продажам новостроек (14:00 GMT), а также выступления представителей ФРС - Д. Булларда (15:15), Дж. Пауэлла (16:15 GMT) и Л.Местер (16:40 GMT).Источник: FxTeam

23 июня, 07:03

Ситуация на фондовых площадках Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона:

Фондовые индексы Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона торгуются разнонаправленно, после тусклых сигналов с Уолл-стрит и незначительного повышения цен на сырую нефть с десятимесячных минимумов. Рынки материкового Китая находятся в центре внимания после новостей о том, что китайские регуляторы банков проводят финансовые обзоры сделок с зарубежными покупателями активов. Австралийский рынок растет не фоне удорожания акций горнорудных компаний. Небольшое восстановление цен на сырую нефть также подняло настроения инвесторов. Акции BHP Billiton и Rio Tinto подорожали более чем на 1%, а Fortescue Metals - на 0,4%. Рыночная стоимость Woodside Petroleum снизилась на 0,1%, а Santos - на 0,2 %, а Oil Search - на 0,5%. Торги на Токийской фондовой бирже открылись небольшим снижением котировок на фоне слабых результатов торгов в США. Акции Sony подорожали менее чем на 0,1%, а Canon и Panasonic - на 0,2%. Toshiba теряет почти 2% стоимости бумаг. Рыночная стоимость Inpex и Japan Petroleum Exploration снизилась на 0,6% и 0,5% соответственно. NIKKEI 20107.76 -2.75 -0.01% SHANGHAI 3124.23 -23.23 -0.74% HSI 25686.77 +12.24 +0.05% ASX 200 5706.70 0.75 +0.01% KOSPI 2370.47 +0.10 0% NZ50 7547.54 -16.15 -0.21% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam

22 июня, 16:16

Перед открытием фондовых рынков США: фьючерсы на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения

Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,431.50 (-0.08%), фьючерс NASDAQ снизился на 0.04% до уровня 5,793.75. Внешний фон негативный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию разнонаправленно. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют преимущественно негативную динамику. Nikkei 20,110.51 -28.28 -0.14% Hang Seng 25,674.53 -20.05 -0.08% Shanghai 3,147.12 -9.09 -0.29% S&P/ASX 5,705.95 +40.23 +0.71% FTSE 7,424.31 -23.48 -0.32% CAC 5,260.66 -13.60 -0.26% DAX 12,773.63 -0.63 0.00% Августовские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $42.83 за баррель (+0.71%) Золото торгуется по $1,252.90 за унцию (+0.57%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения, так как цены на нефть хотя и отскочили от многомесячных минимумов, но продолжают оставаться под давлением. Стоимость нефти упала примерно на 20% с пиковых значений, отмеченных в конце февраля текущего года, несмотря на усилия ОПЕК по стабилизации рынка. Энергетический индекс S&P .SPNY, который в этом году снизился на 14.9%, является безусловным аутсайдером среди отраслевых индексов S&P и существенно отстает от более широкого индекса S&P 500. Инвесторы обеспокоены тем, что падение цен на нефть может привести к снижению инфляционного давления и сделать менее вероятным быстрый рост процентных ставок со стороны ФРС. Инфляция продолжает оставаться ниже цели ФРС на уровне 2%, даже не смотря на то, что тон заявлений центрального банка в отношении дальнейшего ужесточения монетарной политики становится "ястребиным". Напомним, на прошлой неделе ФРС, как и ожидалось, повысил процентные ставки на 25 б.п. до 1.00-1.25%, а председатель ФРС Йеллен приуменьшила недавние признаки смягчения инфляции. Тем не менее, многие представители ФРС высказывают мнение, что регулятору стоит дождаться более четких сигналов о росте цен, прежде чем продолжить действовать. Участники рынка также анализируют отчет Министерство труда, который показал, что число американцев, подавших заявки на пособие по безработице, несколько увеличилось на прошлой неделе, но остается на уровне, соответствующем жесткому рынку труда. Согласно отчету, первичные обращения за пособиями по безработице увеличились на 3000 до 241 000 с учетом сезонных колебаний за неделю, закончившуюся 17 июня, тогда как экономисты ожидали, что заявки на пособие по безработице увеличатся до 240 000. В то же время заявки на пособие по безработице за предыдущую неделю были пересмотрены в сторону увеличения на 1000 до 238 000 с 237 000. Показатель на этой неделе - это 120-я неделя подряд, когда обращения были ниже 300 000, порога, связанного с сильным рынком труда. Это самый длинный участок, в течение которого рынок труда в США оставался ниже этого уровня с 1970 года. Среди сообщений корпоративного характера стоит отметить превысившую ожидания отчетность компании Oracle (ORCL): прибыль компании составила $0.89 в расчете на акцию в четвертом квартале 2017 финансового года против среднего прогноза аналитиков $0.78, тогда как ее выручка достигла $10.942 млрд. против среднего прогноза аналитиков $10.453 млрд. Кроме того, компания представила оптимистичный прогноз на следующий квартал. Акции ORCL на премаркете взлетели на 11.6%. В фокусе также находятся акции компании Facebook (FB), которая проведет свой первый в истории "саммит сообщества" ("community summit") сегодня и завтра (22 и 23 июня) в Чикаго. Социальная сеть описывает это событие как способ отдать должное "разработчикам сообщества", которые администрируют группы Facebook. Акции FB на премаркете торговались почти без изменений к уровням закрытия предыдущего дня. Кроме того, инвесторы с интересом ожидают результатов стресс-тестов ФРС в соответствии с законом Додда-Франка, которые будут обнародованы в 20:30 GMT. Данные тесты используются для определения того, имеют ли крупные банки достаточный капитал, чтобы противостоять кризису. Тестам подвергаются 34 учреждения, в том числе Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) и Citigroup (C). Однако, только на следующей недели банки узнают, могут ли они выкупать акции или выплачивать дивиденды акционерам в этом году. После начала торгов влияние на их ход могут оказать комментарии представителя ФРС Джерома Пауэлла (14:00 GMT).Источник: FxTeam

22 июня, 09:22

Фондовые индексы АТР растут в четверг

Фондовые индексы Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона (АТР) растут в четверг благодаря стабилизации нефтяного рынка и подъему цен на металлы, пишет MarketWatch.

21 июня, 19:44

Американские акции демонстрируют смешанную динамику, нефть снижается вместе с долларом

Американские акции колебались после крупнейшего снижения за месяц, и лидером здесь выступил технологический сектор, тогда как углубление падения нефти давило на акции в энергетическом секторе. Трежерис снижались вместе с долларом. Индекс S&P 500 компенсировал рост, когда акции энергетического сектора повернули в сторону снижения. Акции биотеха росли третий день подряд. Сырая нефть кратко пошла вверх следом за данными правительства по запасам (-2.5 млн. баррелей), тогда как после развернулась, так как инвесторы не перестают думать о сохранении избытка на рынке. Фунт рос на ястребиных комментариях главных экономистов Банка Англии. Акции в Саудовской Аравии подскочили на фоне перестановок во дворце. Китайские акции росли после новостей об их включении в индекс развивающихся рынков MSCI. Снижение нефти привело ее на медвежий рынок, потянув за собой и другие активы. Отскок биотеха происходил на признаках того, что администрация Трампа смягчила позицию по ценообразованию на лекарства. Индекс S&P 500 снизился на 0.1% до 2,435.24 по состоянию на 11:11 в Нью-Йорке. Индекс Nasdaq 100 вырос на 0.5%, продолжая отскакивать после двухнедельной распродажи. Индекс доллара Bloomberg просел на 0.2% после роста на 0.3% во вторник и на 0.4% за прошлый день. Австралийский S&P/ASX 200 снизился на 1.6%, акции энергетического сектора снижались. BHP Billiton Ltd. и Rio Tinto Ltd. теряют, по меньшей мере, 2.9%. U.S. Stocks Mixed, Oil Turns Lower as Dollar Slips, Bloomberg, Jun 21Источник: FxTeam

20 июня, 16:18

Перед открытием фондовых рынков США: фьючерсы на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения

Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,445.50 (-0.08%), фьючерс NASDAQ снизился на 0.01% до уровня 5,765.50. Внешний фон нейтральный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию разнонаправленно. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют смешанную динамику. Nikkei 20,230.41 +162.66 +0.81% Hang Seng 25,843.04 -81.51 -0.31% Shanghai 3,140.30 -4.07 -0.13% S&P/ASX 5,757.25 -47.92 -0.83% FTSE 7,511.36 -12.45 -0.17% CAC 5,312.64 +1.92 +0.04% DAX 12,879.18 -9.77 -0.08% Августовские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $43.36 за баррель (-2.43%) Золото торгуется по $1,247.40 за унцию (+0.06%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения, так как инвесторы решили взять паузу после того, как накануне S&P500 и Dow обновили рекордные уровни на фоне восстановления акций технологических компаний. В фокусе внимания участников рынка находится отчет Министерства торговли, который показал, что в первом квартале дефицит счета текущих операций в США несколько увеличился, поскольку страна импортировала больше нефти, запасных частей и принадлежностей для своих заводов. Согласно отчету, дефицит текущего счета увеличился на 2.4% до $116,8 млрд. Дефицит текущего счета за четвертый квартал 2016 года был пересмотрен до $114 млрд. по сравнению с ранее сообщенными $112.4 млрд.. Экономисты прогнозировали, что дефицит увеличится до $124 млрд. в первом квартале. Дефицит текущего счета в первом квартале составил 2.5% от валового внутреннего продукта, по сравнению с 2.4% в четвертом квартале. Кроме того, инвесторы внимательно следят за выступлениями представителей ФРС. Президент ФРБ Чикаго Чарльза Эванса накануне вечером заявил, что он считает, что ФРС необходимости занять выжидательную позицию, чтобы оценить поступающие данные, и принять решение об очередном повышении ставок в конце года. Также г-н Эванс отметил, что существуют определенные трудности с ростом инфляции к целевому уровню в 2%, добавив, что он хотел бы увидеть не только стабилизацию инфляционного давления, но и признаки его роста. Но в целом он выразил свое согласие с июньским решением FOMC, так как считает, что экономика США чувствует себя достаточно хорошо. Вице-председатель ФРС Стэнли Фишер, выступая сегодня на конференции по макропруденциальной политике в Амстердаме, организованной совместно голландским и шведским центральными банками, предупредил, что, хотя Соединенные Штаты и другие страны предприняли шаги по укреплению своих финансовых систем, им предстоит еще многое сделать для предотвращения будущего кризиса. На той же конференции Президент ФРБ Бостона Эрик Розенгрен заявил, что эпоха низких процентных ставок в Соединенных Штатах и других странах создает риски финансовой стабильности и что центральные банки должны учитывать такие проблемы в принятии решений. Г-н Розенгрен в своем выступлении не упомянул о последнем решении центрального банка США повысить ставки или экономических перспективах США. Инвесторы ожидают коментариев президента ФРБ Сан-Франциско Роберт Каплан (19:00 GMT). Среди сообщений корпоративного характера стоит отметить новость о том, что компания Tesla Inc. (TSLA) близка к соглашению о производстве автомобилей в Китае, что, как ожидается, обеспечит ее электромобилям лучший доступ к самому большому авторынку в мире. По словам источников, детали соглашения, о котором могут сообщить уже на этой неделе, в моменте дорабатываются. Компании Tesla нужно будет создать совместное предприятие с хотя бы одним китайским партнером в соответствии с существующими законами, и пока непонятно, кто это будет. Акции TSLA на премаркете подскочили на 1.8%. После закрытия торговой сессии ожидается публикация квартальной отчетности FedEx (FDX). Аналитики прогнозируют, что по итогам отчетного периода компания покажет прибыль на уровне $3.88 в расчете на акцию при выручке в $15.560 млрд.Источник: FxTeam

20 июня, 13:48

Futures, European Stocks Flat As Oil Suddenly Tumbles; Pound Slides

European stocks were flat after starting off strongly earlier, dragged lower by energy stocks. Asian stocks, U.S. futures little changed as oil tumbled with Brent tumbling as low as $45.85/bbl to the lowest intraday since November 30 and taking out a 38.2% Fib support, after a one-minute spike in volume to a day-high 5,208 lots just after 6am, with WTI mirroring Brent's momentum, and falling as much as 98c to $43.22, lowest since November 14. As Reuters' Jamie McGeever points out, "maybe not too much of a surprise to see oil prices fall, given how much the G10 economic surprises index has collapsed in recent weeks." Maybe not too much of a surprise to see oil prices fall, given how much the G10 economic surprises index has collapsed in recent weeks. pic.twitter.com/aXkvHOzZMt — Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) June 20, 2017 The pound sank for a second day, with the GBPUSD tumbling to 1.2661, alongside gilt yields as Britain central bank governor Mark Carney reversed the earlier BOE "vote split" hawkishness and said he is still worried about the impact Brexit will have on the U.K. economy and said he "now is not the time" to raise rates. Sterling weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers, and gilt yields declined as Carney said that domestic inflation pressures remain subdued. Speaking at London’s Mansion House on Tuesday, he also highlighted the weakness in the economy and the increased uncertainty as the nation formally starts talks to exit the European Union. Carney’s first major speech since May comes a day after negotiations over Britain’s exit from the European Union formally began, and his comments addressing weakness in the U.K. economy and subdued inflation join a raft of talking points for investors this week.  As Bloomberg adds, Carney’s comments were seen as pushing back against a hawkish shift at last week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, where three members unexpectedly voted to raise the benchmark rate from a record-low 0.25 percent. That split in the MPC is exacerbating the uncertainty faced by pound traders as the U.K. begins its Brexit negotiations in the wake of inconclusive elections earlier this month. Sterling’s weakness boosted U.K. stocks with the FTSE 100 and 250 both benefitting from the falling sterling and regained some early losses seen in the UK indices. Similarly, in a speech late in U.S. time on Monday, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said it may be worthwhile for the U.S. central bank to wait until year-end to decide whether to raise rates again. Also overnight, we got the latest in a string of appearances from U.S. central bank officials when Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaking in Amsterdam, discussing the impact of low rates on high home prices. Hong Kong shares retreated ahead of MSCI Inc.’s decision on whether to include China’s domestic equities in its main indexes. As a reminder the MSCI will announce whether it approved Chinese-listed stocks in its global benchmarks. China's $6.8 trillion onshore market is the world’s second largest and accounts for 9% of global stock value, but has been rejected for index inclusion three times by MSCI over issues including capital controls and long trading halts. MSCI’s decision is expected Tuesday after the close of U.S. markets. Elsewhere, Japan's Nikkei jumped to a near two-year high on Tuesday while Japan’s Topix rose 0.7% to the highest since August 2015 amid weakness in the yen. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was up less than 0.1% as of 11:33am in London, trimming gains of as much as 0.3% with miners and energy shares lead declines among sectors as crude extends drop to lowest intraday since Nov. 15. Stoxx 600 miners down 1.7%, tracking copper prices lower, while banks were the third-worst decliners as 10- year German bond yield falls. Drops offset by gains in food and beverage and media stocks, among others. As noted above, Brent crude oil hit new year-to-date low at $45.85, which could spur a move toward the $44.66 measured support line according to Bloomberg technician Sejul Gokal; possible trend-exhaustion signals may temporarily delay the move. Brent crude oil -1.7% to 46.02. Support at $44.66 represents the 100% extension line of April-May selloff (~$10 selloff), projected from May peak ($54.67). Drop to support may not happen immediately as market on possible trend-exhaustion signal. West Texas oil erased a gain to slump 1.7 percent to $43.44 a barrel. Gold climbed 0.2 percent to $1,246.36 an ounce, after closing Monday at the lowest in more than a month. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped one basis point to 2.18 percent, after rising four basis points Monday. Benchmark yields in the U.K. fell after Carney's dovish comments with the yield on 10-year gilts dropping 2bps to 1.0%, having earlier dropped 4bps. Odds of a 25bps hike by end of 2018 tumbled to ~47% according to MPC=dated SONIAs, compared with around 77% ahead of Carney's comments. Currencies saw the British pound falling 0.3 percent to $1.2695, erasing an earlier gain. The euro edged 0.1 percent higher to $1.1155. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, after advancing 0.4 percent on Monday. The measure touched the lowest level since October last week. The yen fell 0.1 percent to 111.61 per dollar. The currency retreated 0.6 percent on Monday. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk BoE's Carney says now is not the time to hike given 'anemic' wage growth and mixed signals in consumer spending European equities trade higher across the board. Energy names underperform as prices fail to recoup yesterday's losses Looking ahead, Fed's Fischer, Rosengren, Kaplan and ECB's Coeure Top Overnight News from BBG DAX ended at record close, up 12% YTD; S&P 500 jumped to record high; dollar dips after rally, oil steady Fed’s Evans suggests delaying next rate hike Fed’s Fischer Says House Prices ‘High and Rising’ Amid Low Rates EU wins first Brexit battle, as U.K. retreats on timing MSCI review watch: China, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Nigeria Macron’s ministers meeting with companies in which French state holds stakes; Macron considers possible divestments Wait for bigger drop to buy tech shares: Morgan Stanley Tesla Said Close to Agreeing on Plan for China Production Plant Blackstone-Backed GEMS Said Valued at $4 Billion in London IPO Boeing’s Vision for the Future Has No Place for the Iconic 747 Aviation Capital Group Orders 20 Boeing 737 Max 10 Airplanes Lockheed Martin Gets Air Force Contract for Sniper ATP, LANTIRN Bombardier Said to Near Turboprop Plane Order From SpiceJet Pamplona Capital Said Near Deal to Buy Parexel for $4.6b: WSJ Georgia House Race May Guide How Candidates Deal With Trump Bayer CEO Sees Potential for Small Pharma Deals After Monsanto Spain Regulator Starts Probe Vs Philip Morris Unit, Altadis BlackRock to Take Minority Equity Stake in Scalable Capital KKR Gives Up on Joining Bid With Bain for Toshiba Unit: Sankei Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.01% to 2,447.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 392.81 MXAP up 0.08% to 155.37 MXAPJ down 0.09% to 506.00 Nikkei up 0.8% to 20,230.41 Topix up 0.7% to 1,617.25 Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 25,843.04 Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,140.01 Sensex down 0.01% to 31,308.11 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 5,757.25 Kospi down 0.07% to 2,369.23 German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.267% Euro up 0.02% to 1.1151 per US$ Italian 10Y yield fell 3.1 bps to 1.664% Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.3 bps to 1.415% Brent Futures up 0.2% to $47.01/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,247.16 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.02% to 97.57 In Asian markets, stocks were mixed after failing to sustain the momentum from Wall Street where stocks closed at fresh all time highs after the tech sector rebounded from last week's underperformance and the DJIA extended into record territory. Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) outperformed and printed fresh 22-month highs due to a weaker currency, while ASX 200 (-0.5%) was dampened by softness across commodities and with financials pressured after Moody's downgraded ratings on Australia's big 4 banks. Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) and Hang Seng (-0.1%) traded choppy after the PBoC's reduced its liquidity operations to a paltry CNY1Obln, which was counterbalanced by a decline in money market rates with the CNH Overnight HIBOR at an 8-month low. 10yr JGBs were subdued amid a positive risk tone in Japan and with the demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for super-long JGBs virtually unchanged from prior. Top Asian News ‘Dangerous Situation’ for Hong Kong Property Market, Says Chan Sinochem Group Said to Consider Oil Asset Listing in Hong Kong Gaming the Yuan: Making Money on a State-Controlled Currency Zhou Says China’s Banks Risk Laziness Without Outside Rivals China’s Surging Bonds Show Angst About a Cash Crunch Is Easing Noble Group’s Shares Extend Rally as Trader to Sell More Assets Hong Kong Stocks Fall as Investors Wait for MSCI’s Call on China Indian WhatsApp-Rival Hike Gets Into Busy Digital-Payments Arena In European bourses, the FTSE 100 and 250 both benefited from the falling sterling and regained some early losses seen in the UK indices, stemmed by equity specific morning news, where poor earnings from Wolseley (WOS LN) and Orange reducing its stake in BT (BT/A LN) set the FTSE off to a slow start. The Eurostoxx 600 sectors were positive, with 9/10 trading the morning in the green — the noticeable laggard was the energy sector, with WTI and Brent Crude failing to bounce from yesterday's losses. Fixed income markets were led by Gilts, as the aforementioned dovish tone from Carney led Gilts to outperform, trading near session highs, as the other triple A's followed. Note, supply from Europe is particularly light this week. Top European News Barclays, Four Former Executives Charged Over Qatar Fundraising Carney’s Brexit Concerns Mean BOE Governor in No Rush to Tighten Centrica Plans to Close Only U.K. Long-Term Gas Storage Site Amazon-Whole Foods Deal Puts Spotlight on France’s Carrefour Trump’s Steel-Import Threat Prompts EU to Warn of Retaliation Italy Seeks to Entice Foreign Buyers With New Rules on Bad Loans Atlante May Buy Paschi NPLs After Fortress, Elliott Drop: Sole French Defense Minister Goulard Resigns, AFP Says on Twitter In currencies, the price action this morning has been focused on the Pound, as BoE gov Carney allayed any 'fears' that UK rates were on the rise any time soon. This was a known factor given the vote split revealed last week, but the algos jumped on his accommodative tone on policy over the near term, focusing on anaemic wage growth — we also knew this — as reported in the jobs report last week.Even so, Cable dived below 1.2700 from circa 1.2750, while from the mid 0.8700's, we were testing 0.8800 again. Both pairs have since pulled back off their respective extremes, with Brexit themes and the cordial start to the talks yesterday proving supportive to a very modest degree. Elsewhere, USD/JPY remains the key path for USD bulls concurring with Fed chair Yellen last week and NY's Dudley yesterday. We still run into seller ahead of 112.00, as their optimistic tunes are clearly being met with scepticism from some quarters. Modest gains in mid curve UST yield is testament to this.EUR/USD is still finding buyers well ahead of 1.1100, with this morning's upturn in EUR/GBP having provided some support. In commodities, since the FOMC announcement last week, the USD has recovered some ground, notably against the USD as Treasuries have edged lower. This has fed into some weakness in Gold which is now trading below USD1250, with Silver finding a little more support having lagged the yellow metal on the way up. The steady risk tone has also added to weakness here, and as a result, base metals have pushed up to a modest degree. Copper is a little more balanced, but Aluminium, Zinc and Lead all showing moderate gains on the day but with few individual drivers which stand out. Oil prices have also stabilised, but as we have noted in recent weeks, the backdrop of rising US shale production precludes any significant upturn in WTI or Brent — both still trading relatively close to the recent lows, but WTI finding support well ahead of the key USD40 mark. Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got another fairly thin calendar of data ahead of us today. We’ll get current account balance readings for both the US and Euro area. China’s conference board leading index is also out this afternoon. It’s a busy day for Fedspeak though with Fischer (3.15pm EDT), Rosengren (8.15am EDT) and Kaplan (3pm EDT) all scheduled to speak. House Speaker Ryan's speech will also be a key focus. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Revisions: Current Account 8:30am: Current Account Balance, est. $123.6b deficit, prior $112.4b deficit 3:15am: Fed’s Fischer Speaks in Amsterdam 8:15am: Fed’s Rosengren to Speak at Macroprudential Conference 3pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in San Francisco * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Not many divorce settlements start with a cheery exchange of gifts between the spurned partners. Well Brexit is like no divorce in history as UK Brexit Secretary David Davies yesterday kickstarted talks by giving EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier a rare mountaineering book with a hiking stick going in the opposite direction. There was no suggestion that the latter gift was Europe's way of asking the UK to take a hike. In fact everything was very cordial. If it carries on like this (unlikely) it could be the friendliest divorce since Coldplay's Chris Martin and Gwyneth Paltrow's conscious uncoupling. We'd note that the latter sung backing vocals on Coldplay's last album so proof that it is possible to remain friends. The first round perhaps went to the EU as the UK agreed to their sequencing of sorting out agreement on the divorce payments first before any trade negotiations could progress. It seems EU and UK citizen rights living in the other's region will be discussed early on in the talks as will the contentious Irish border issue. UK Brexit Minister David Davis confirmed that the UK would present its offer on rights for citizens at some stage next week. Timing wise we’re expecting one week of negotiations every month. In between those weeks consultations and technical work will go on behind the scenes. For now the overall tone and relationship between the two camps in the press conference yesterday appeared friendly and talks as being constructive in the very early going. However expect the real details to emerge in the weeks and months ahead. It’s worth pointing out that there is an EU leaders’ summit this Thursday and Friday which might provide a decent summary as to how the first week of talks has proceeded. With those talks going on behind the scenes then, in an otherwise fairly quiet start to the week most of the focus was on comments from the NY Fed’s Dudley. Most significant appeared to be his remark that recent rate hikes by the Fed have not tightened financial conditions to any significant degree and also that halting the tightening cycle now would imperil the expansion. Dudley appeared upbeat about the US economy overall and also that the expansion has “a long way to go”. On inflation he said that prices are a little lower than what the Fed would want – which was no great surprise – but also that he expects  wage growth to quicken a bit more as the job market continues to tighten. So overall fairly upbeat and the comments helped both the Greenback to firm up (Dollar index +0.40%) and Treasury yields to edge higher (10y +3.7bps to 2.190%), while Gold (-0.79%) nudged lower. Overnight we’ve also heard from the Chicago Fed’s Evans who was similarly upbeat. The Fed official said that the “real economy is really doing quite well” and that “I think where we are with the funds rate right now is kind of in line with my outlook”. He didn’t offer any further clues as to his expectation for how many more hikes we might get this year but did say that “the important feature is that the current environment supports very gradual rate hikes and slow preset reductions in our balance sheet”. Staying with the US for a moment, it’s worth noting that House Speaker Paul Ryan is due to deliver his first major speech on tax reform in an address today. It’s due to kick off at 12.45pm ET/5.45pm BST. That should be well worth keeping an eye on. Elsewhere in markets yesterday it was a decent start to the week for global equity markets with the S&P 500 (+0.83%) and Dow (+0.68%) both rallying to new record highs. A decent rebound for the Nasdaq (+1.42%) appeared to be the main driver as tech stocks surged after being beaten up in recent days. In fact the Nasdaq actually had its best day since November 7th and is now 'only' 1.66% off its intraday all-time high from June 8th and up 2.10% from its intraday low on June 9th when it had a mini sell-off. For all that talk of a correction it’s worth also highlighting that the Nasdaq has now gone 154 consecutive sessions without a 5% drawdown from the peak. The record is 156 days set in he mid-1980’s. Elsewhere yesterday European equities also turned in a solid session with the Stoxx 600 (+0.86%) having its best day since April 24th. This morning in Asia, despite a positive start, most major bourses have pared early gains and faded. The Hang Seng (-0.02%), Shanghai Comp (-0.12%) and Kospi (-0.05%) are little changed as investors await the decision on whether or not the MSCI will include mainland China stocks in its benchmark indices later today. Elsewhere the ASX (-0.41%) is underperforming with Banks under pressure after Moody’s yesterday downgraded Australia’s major banks. The one market which has rallied this morning is the Nikkei (+1.10%) which appears to be getting some support from a weaker Yen. Moving on. While there was no significant macro data released yesterday we did get the latest ECB CSPP holdings data. Although the average daily run rate was €318mn and below the average daily run rate since CSPP started of €366mn, the CSPP/PSPP ratio was still 12.7%, which is above the average of 11.6% before QE was trimmed in April. So after a buoyant May where CSPP seemed to increase again (likely in line with high issuance), we've dropped back down to lower than average levels. However the ratio still suggests a higher taper for PSPP than CSPP. Staying with the ECB, there was a bit of focus on comments from Governing Council member Jan Smets yesterday. He said that the ECB is closely watching wages and inflation expectations with the ECB still not seeing convincing signs that price stability can be supported without monetary support. The EUR 5y5y inflation swap rate is currently holding at 1.533% and at around 7-month lows. Meanwhile over at the BoE Silvana Tenreyro was appointed to the Bank’s MPC as Kristen Forbes’ (a notable hawk) replacement. She will start next month. Tenreyo is currently a professor at the LSE and a former Bank of Mauritius official. It’s difficult to really get a gauge on where she sits on the hawk-dove scale although we do know that she has published an academic paper arguing the impact of monetary policy as being asymmetric which could put her closer to the core of the committee than Forbes. At least the current balmy English summer is somewhat comparable to the warmer Mauritius climate. Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got another fairly thin calendar of data ahead of us today. We’ll get current account balance readings for both the US and Euro area, along with PPI data in Germany this morning. China’s conference board leading index is also out this afternoon. It’s a busy day for Fedspeak though with Fischer (8.15pm BST), Rosengren (1.15pm BST) and Kaplan (8pm BST) all scheduled to speak. The aforementioned House Speaker Ryan speech will also be a key focus. The other key event for markets today is the Mansion House speeches by BoE Governor Carney and Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond. The event was rescheduled as a breakfast so we are expecting the speeches to take place early this morning.