Опрос Reuters выявил, что австралийский фондовый рынок, вероятно, будет демонстрировать восходящую тенденцию в 2017 году и в 2018 году, поддерживаемый широким оптимизмом, который охватил глобальные рынки в последние месяцы. Впрочем, некоторые аналитики видят риски для перспектив, ссылаясь на любое агрессивное повышение процентных ставок в США. Австралийский фондовый индекс S&P/ASX 200 завершил сегодняшнюю сессию на самом высоком уровне за почти два года, чему способствовали надежды по поводу того, что местный регулятор будет ужесточать стандарты ипотечного кредитования для "охлаждения" рынка недвижимости страны. Быстрый рост цен на жилье за последние несколько лет вызвал опасение краха рынка недвижимости, поэтому более жесткие правила рассматриваются как инструмент для снижения этого риска. Хотя проблемы вокруг рынка жилья все еще сохраняются, сильное ралли цен на железную руду и оптимистичный взгляд ЦБ Австралии в отношении экономики поддерживают настроения инвесторов на высоком уровне. В этом году улучшение доверия было вызвано ралли на мировых рынках благодаря ожиданиям того, что президент США Трамп сократит налоги и смягчит финансовые правила. На фоне этого оптимизма фондовые рынки США неоднократно обновляли свои рекордные максимумы. Согласно последнему опросу 15 стратегов, индекс S&P/ASX 200, вероятно, вырастет на 2 процента в этом году в сравнении с уровнем закрытия среды. Индекс, как ожидается, опустится до 5800 к середине 2017 года, и затем поднимется до 5950 к концу года, прежде чем продолжить подъем выше уровня 6000 к середине 2018 года. Отвечая на вопрос о вероятности того, индекс упадет на 10 процентов к концу года, большинство стратегов сказали, что такое снижение является маловероятным. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Brexit day has finally arrived, and despite this major "risk event", European and Asian stocks are trading mixed, while S&P futures are just fractionally lower as a bounce on optimism over the American economy appears to have fizzled and President Trump continues to struggle to pass his legislative agenda. The pound first dipped then rose as the U.K. is set to begin its life outside the EU. Prime Minister Theresa May will notify EU Council President Donald Tusk in a letter shortly after 1pm CET that Britain really is quitting the bloc it joined in 1973, pitching the United Kingdom into the unknown and triggering years of uncertain negotiations. The start of the formal Brexit process comes a day after the Scottish Parliament backed a bid to hold a second independence referendum that would break up the UK, adding another layer of uncertainty for investors to navigate. "Details are everything now. We could be in for a rough ride today as currency traders react to the contents of the letter being delivered to Brussels and the language May uses in parliament," Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital, told Reuters adding that "a truly hard Brexit has not been priced into sterling. We could see it move lower still if negotiations take a sour turn." As DB's Jim Reid summarizes today's events, "the official process is expected to start at just after 12.30pm GMT when British ambassador to the EU, Sir Tim Barrow, presents May’s letter of withdrawal to the European Council President Donald Tusk. Perhaps more significant for markets, PM May will then address lawmakers in London this afternoon so it’s worth seeing if anything comes out of that. All this of course follows the news out of Scotland yesterday where lawmakers in Parliament voted by a majority of 69 to 59 to allow First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to go through the legalities of holding a second independence referendum by spring 2019. Its likely to be blocked by Westminster but stand by for lots of noise on this over the coming weeks and months." The Stoxx Europe 600 Index and futures for the S&P 500 erased early gains to trade little changed. Sterling pared losses of as much as 0.6 percent to edge higher before a letter formally triggering Britain’s departure from the European Union is delivered. The South African rand weakened further as traders await clarity on the fate of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. Still, despite the overnight wobble in risk trades, global stocks remain on course for a fifth straight month of gains as the reflation trade triggered by Trump’s election proves its resilience. As the MSCI All-Country World Index shows, despite the imminent Brexit, risk-on mood prevails around the globe and global equities trade just shy of all time highs. Germany's DAX was up 0.6 percent, hitting 2 year highs, driven by broker upgrades and results. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.2 percent and back toward recent 21-month peaks, while Japan's Nikkei added 0.1 percent. The Dow Jones snapped an eight-day losing streak on Tuesday, its longest run of losses since 2011, in part as a survey showed consumer confidence surged to a more than 16-year high. "Economic fundamentals still remain exceedingly sound here in 2017 and you do not need Trump's pro-growth fiscal agenda for this to be one of the best years for growth since the recovery started," argued Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets. "We still think tax reform happens, but you are better off thinking about the timing as an end of year event at best." “Trump and markets are moving on, with the help of better U.S. data,” Societe Generale SA strategists, led by Ciaran O’Hagan, wrote in a client note, referring to the rebound in risk appetite after last week’s failed health-care bill curbed reflation bets. Some further thoughts from SocGen's Kit Juckes on today's key risk event(s): The British Government's decision to trigger Article 50 and start the process of leaving the EU is making all the headlines, of course. But the wider market story is that yet again, volatility has collapsed. Both the Vix, and Deutsche Bank's CVIC FX volatility index, are back below their 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages. The excitement that was caused by the failure of President Trump's healthcare bill has been washed away as bond yields stabilise. A 2.42% 10-year Note yield is neither too hot nor too cold, consistent with a couple more rate hikes this year but not with the Fed's famous dots that take rates to 3% in due course. Rates stay below the nominal growth rate of the economy and asset prices take comfort. Both the dampening effect on volatility and the over-correlation of financial markets that Helene Rey described as the result of too-low rates are back as the dominant force behind markets. In FX, that's a recipe for yield-hungry, risk-tolerant investors to take the lead. Vix and CVix are back under the easy money cosh Elsewhere in currencies, the euro was down a quarter of one percent at $1.0785 and the USDJPY was being supported by 111. The dollar bounced from 4-month lows as a top Federal Reserve official talked of more rate hikes to come. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, one of the more influential policymakers with markets, said two more rate increases this year seemed "about right". The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.45% on Tuesday, the most since March 2. In China, the onshore yuan declined 0.11%, or the most since March 8, to 6.8899 after the central bank cuts its daily fixing by 0.19% amid broad dollar strength. Additionally, the PBOC continued to soak up liquidity, skipping reverse-repurchase operations for the fourth day in a row, leading to a net withdrawal of 70 billion yuan on Wednesday due to maturities. The overnight repo rate rises 11 basis points to 2.52%; the seven-day repo rate climbs 19 basis points to 2.84%. The one-year interest-rate swaps climb for the first time in six days, adding five basis points to 3.60%. In commodity markets, base metal prices bounced on more upbeat economic news from China with copper CMCU3 gaining 0.8 percent overnight to add to Tuesday's 2 percent rise. Oil prices gained after a severe disruption to Libyan oil supplies and as officials suggested the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers could extend output cuts to the end of the year. U.S. crude added 1 percent to $48.83 a barrel, while Brent LCOc1 also rose 1 percent to $51.80. Spot gold was little changed at $1,250 an ounce. In rates, European bonds mostly edged higher, with a one-basis point decline in the yield of 10-year Spanish bonds among the largest moves. Treasuries gained, with the yield on the benchmark note due in a decade falling one basis point to 2.41 percent. The yield advanced four basis points Tuesday. * * * Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk EU bourses have shrugged off any potential uncertainty from today's key risk event to trade higher ahead of the US open UK PM May signed the Article 50 letter, in preparation to hand to Europe. The letter is expected to be handed to EU President Tusk later today at 1230BST Looking ahead, highlights include DoE crude oil and UK Brexit developments Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,351.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 377.81 MXAP down 0.2% to 148.78 MXAPJ up 0.3% to 482.84 Nikkei up 0.1% to 19,217.48 Topix down 0.2% to 1,542.07 Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 24,392.05 Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,241.31 Sensex up 0.4% to 29,519.45 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 5,873.52 Kospi up 0.2% to 2,166.98 German 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 0.384% Euro down 0.2% to 1.0791 per US$ Brent Futures up 1% to $51.84/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 3.6 bps to 2.161% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 1.671% Brent Futures up 1% to $51.84/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,250.37 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 99.86 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Britain Heads Into Unknown as May Gets Ready to Trigger Brexit Trump Said to Meet With Cohn on Thursday to Discuss Tax Overhaul Judge Narrows Precious Metal Manipulation Case Against Firms House Clears Measure to Scrap FCC Broadband Privacy Rule U.S., Japan Test Xi With Taiwan Moves Ahead of Trump Summit EU Blocks Deutsche Boerse’s $14 Billion Takeover of Rival LSE Toshiba Sees Record Loss as Westinghouse Unit Files Bankruptcy BlackRock Said to Cut Jobs, Fees in Revamp of Active- Equity Unit Huntsman Eyes Merger After Spinoff of Titanium-Dioxide Unit Delta, Korean Air Sign MOU to Expand Partnership Yield Hunters Cut Euro Credit ETF Holdings on Political Risk Athene Upsized Secondary Share Offering Priced at $48.50-Share Roche Multiple Sclerosis Drug Wins FDA Approval AMC Entertainment CEO Sees Making Small Acquisitions in U.S. Vertex Says Cystic Fibrosis Combo Met Goals in Phase 3 Studies Asian equities traded mostly higher following the rebound on Wall Street where stocks were led by strength in financials and energy sectors, as well as encouraging data with consumer confidence at a 16-year high. ASX 200 (+0.9%) outperformed with broad-based gains and was similarly led by strength in the aforementioned sectors, while Nikkei 225 (+0.%) failed to benefit from a weaker JPY, as poor retail sales data overshadowed sentiment before seeing some mild reprieve heading into the close. Financials outperformed in the Hang Seng (+0.2%) after AgBank kick-started the Big 4 earnings reports with an encouraging result, while upside in the Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) was limited after the PBoC refrained from open market operations for the 4th consecutive day which resulted to a daily net drain of CNY 70bIn. 10yr JGBs were flat despite an indecisive tone seen in Japanese stocks, while underperformance was observed in the 5yr after the BoJ's Rinban announcement in which it reduced buying in 3yr-5yr maturities to JPY 380b1n from JPY 400BN. PBoC refrained from open market operations for a fourth consecutive day, for a net daily drain of CNY 70bIn. Top Asian News Thailand Holds Key Rate in Rebuff to IMF Call for Easing HNA Unit Plans $1.2 Billion Share Sale to Fund Land Purchases From Silk to Bees and Back? Hedge Fund Battles 144-Year Old Firm Vietnam’s GDP Expands 5.1% in First Quarter; Est. 6.25% Bailouts Fail to Rescue India Farmers Trapped in Debt Spiral Anglo’s New Billionaire Investor Agarwal Says He’s No Activist Billionaire Solomon Lew’s Premier Buys 10.77% Stake in Myer Agarwal: No Intention to Buy Anglo Assets in South Africa Turkey’s Halkbank Plunges After U.S. Probe Extends to Lender Topix Index Declines as Ex-Dividend Impact Outweighs U.S. Data European bourses have shrugged off any potential uncertainty from today's key risk event to trade higher, with the weak GBP and higher commodities prices may be providing the FTSE (+0.3%) a lift. Elsewhere, mining names are performing well with BHP Billiton shares gapping up at the open off the back of a rebound in base metals prices. Finally, EU anti-trust regulators have blocked the proposed Deutsche Boerse (DB1 GY) and LSE (LSE LN) merger (as expected). The UK/German 10YR spread has pushed up in the last couple of sessions and is holding around 81.5bps but this kind of price action is to be expected with Brexit looming. Risk sentiment overall seems to be in the risk on side which is pushing core EU products lower this morning. Top European News Britain Heads Into Unknown as May Signs Brexit Letter U.K. Mortgage Approvals Fall to 68,315 in Feb. Vs. Est. 69,100 Morgan Stanley Favors Buying Pound as Excessive Pessimism Priced Italy Consumer Confidence Rises to 107.6 in March; Est. 106.6 EDF’s Bailout Leaves Nuclear, Power-Price Challenges Intact In currencies, the British pound trimmed earlier losses to trade 0.1 percent lower. The euro weakened 0.2 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed. South Africa’s rand slipped 0.7 percent. Price action in GBP/USD was initially bearish with price printing below the 1.24 handle only to find support at 1.2380. It will be hard to read price action on a day like today due to the aforementioned risk event. USD/JPY looks to have found support with the USD looking like the key beneficiary of safe haven flows, keeping an eye on levels there is a resistance level on the horizon at 111.55 where price was supported multiple times during February. The EUR remains out of favour amid month-end flows, concerns over the EU in the wake of Brexit and Greece's repayment plan. Elsewhere, commodity currencies have received a boost this morning with strength across all the major commodities pushing AUD & CAD higher against the USD. AUD/USD bounced off the 0.7600 support and looks to me aiming for the recent consolidation mean value area of 0.7669 and USD/CAD has struggled after 1.34 was rejected with the next key support lying around the 1.33 area. In commodities, WTI rose 0.7% to $48.69, extending Tuesday’s 1.3% advance as an unexpected disruption in Libyan crude output helps investors shrug off record U.S. stockpiles.Gold rose less than 0.1% to $1,252.70. Base metals this morning have been stealing the show as zinc trades higher by 1%. The bounce in the base metals has been attributed to the rise is US consumer confidence yesterday, with analysts at ANZ commenting that some of the Tump woes may be fading off the back of the strong reading. Early Friday morning will be a real test for metals in the form of Chinese Manufacturing PMI but it is expected to remain flat at 51.6 so any surprise could boost prices further. WTI (+ USD 0.36) and Brent crude (+USD 0.42) futures are trading positively after a smaller build than last week was noted in last night's report. Today we will be looking out for the DOE inventory levels which is also surly set to inspire some volatility. Gold prices are slightly subdued and prices look to be consolidating between USD 1262/oz and USD 1246.98/oz. Looking at the day ahead now, it’s quiet in the US with pending home sales data the only release of note. Away from the data, the Fedspeak today consists of Evans at 9.20am, Rosengren at 11:30pm and Williams at 1.15 pm. The ECB’s Praet is also due to speak at 4.50pm GMT. Also of note today is the aforementioned Article 50 trigger by UK PM Theresa May. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.7% 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 2.45%, prior -2.8%; NSA YoY, prior 2.7% Central Banks 9:20am: Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Frankfurt 11:30am: Fed’s Rosengren Speaks at Economic Club of Boston 1:15pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks to Forecaster’s Club of New York DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The failed healthcare bill hasn't destroyed markets so far this week with the S&P 500 (+0.73% yesterday) now back at the highest level for just over a week after Banks yesterday (+1.56%) rebounded strongly for the sector’s biggest gain since March 1st. The Dow (+0.73%) also brought to an end a run of 8 consecutive daily losses and the longest run since 2011. It is worth noting however that the loss during that period was only -1.91% (of which most came last Tuesday) so yesterday’s rally has already recovered nearly 40% of that. At the same time the VIX also plummeted to a new one week low last night after dropping nearly 8% to 11.53. That is having touched the highest level since November just two days ago. As we discussed in yesterday's EMR, many here at DB think that Trump trades had already been priced out to a large degree and therefore the disappointment over Friday's news may be limited. Firm global growth being the most important factor in where markets are trading. Trump reforms are still very important though especially if global growth slows. Without a big reform package the US is unlikely to be able to pick up the slack if any slowdown occurs. So we certainly don't want to downplay the political events but their ramifications may not be immediate. On that note it was interesting to see the surge in yesterday’s consumer confidence print in the US to 125.6 (+9.5pts) in March and the highest since December 2000. The present conditions gauge also increased to the highest since August 2001 at 143.1 and a measure of consumer expectations for the next six months hit the highest since September 2000 at 113.8. It is worth noting however that the sample period of data being collected had a cutoff date of March 16th and obviously prior to the healthcare bill debacle. While the recent trend is clearly encouraging (largest five-month gain since 2011-12) it’s probably worth waiting until next month’s data to see how much of impact last week’s developments have had, if at all. The data did however help the Greenback to spike higher with the US Dollar index closing up +0.55% for its strongest day since March 1st. 10y Treasury yields also rose 4bps to 2.419% and are back to Friday’s closing levels while Gold (-0.24%) retraced a bit. Comments from the Fed’s Fischer saying that two more rate hikes this year “seems about right” probably also contributed to some of those moves. DB's Washington expert Frank Kelly yesterday hosted a client call on the political implications of last week's events. He suggested that the surprise withdrawal of the Republican healthcare bill on Friday is a sign of the continued division within the Republican Party and is perhaps a precursor to growing political and policy risks in the US. Even before considering the difficulties involved in passing President Trump’s tax reforms, there exists a very real possibility of a government shutdown on April 28 when the current continuing resolutions set to expire. There is a significant chance that the Freedom Caucus will reject a new continuing resolution due to their opposition to the continued funding of Planned Parenthood and Obamacare, while Trump’s spending plans for a border wall will see opposition from both Democrats and Republicans in the Senate. Frank estimates the probability of a government shutdown at roughly 40% and notes that the next 2 weeks will be critical to watch. Beyond the risks of a government shutdown, policy uncertainty continues to manifest itself in the form of questions surrounding Trump’s tax reform bill: Frank expects that the controversial Border Adjustment Tax (BAT) will not even make it into the final bill (at least not in its current form) and that the new corporate tax rate will likely be closer to 25% rather than the expected 15-20% range. Also despite the failure of the healthcare bill there is unlikely to be any acceleration in the proceedings on tax reform to fill the gap. The bill remains likely to go to Congress sometime in the first two weeks of May, and will likely only be picked up by the Senate in September. Given these developing uncertainties, Frank suggests that markets should downgrade their expectations of progress going forward. Staying with politics but jumping to this side of the pond, today the two-year clock for negotiations will officially start when UK PM Theresa May invokes Article 50. The official process is expected to start at just after 12.30pm GMT when British ambassador to the EU, Sir Tim Barrow, presents May’s letter of withdrawal to the European Council President Donald Tusk. Perhaps more significant for markets, PM May will then address lawmakers in London this afternoon so it’s worth seeing if anything comes out of that. All this of course follows the news out of Scotland yesterday where lawmakers in Parliament voted by a majority of 69 to 59 to allow First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to go through the legalities of holding a second independence referendum by spring 2019. Its likely to be blocked by Westminster but stand by for lots of noise on this over the coming weeks and months. To markets again now where the positive momentum which swept through Wall Street last night seems to have stalled a bit in Asia this morning. While the ASX (+0.89%) is higher, the Nikkei, Kospi, Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng are all little changed as we go to print, despite there being little in the way of any new newsflow this morning. In FX sterling has been the big mover again, deepening yesterday’s losses ahead of the Article 50 trigger later today. The Pound is down about -1.20% over the last 24 hours now versus the Dollar. Moving on. In terms of the remainder of the moves in markets yesterday, here in Europe sentiment was also generally positive as evidenced by the decent gains for the Stoxx 600 (+0.61%) and DAX (+1.28%), amongst others. Sovereign bonds were a bit more mixed but moves were fairly modest while the biggest mover and shaker in commodities was Oil with WTI (+1.34%) rising back above $48/bbl following reports of a curb on shipments in Libya. The remaining data was a bit of a wash in the US. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose 5pts in March to 22 after expectations were for a modest retreat. Wholesale inventories were reported as rising a bit more than expected in February (+0.4% mom vs. +0.2% expected) while the advance goods trade balance reading for February revealed a slight narrowing in the deficit to $64.8bn. The S&P/Case-Shiller house price index for January also revealed that house prices rose +0.9% mom from December. Meanwhile there wasn’t much else to take away from the remaining Fedspeak. Fed Chair Yellen didn’t comment directly on monetary policy in her speech but did highlight the unevenness of labour market improvement. Kansas City Fed President George said that it is important to remove accommodation in “a gradual but deliberate fashion” while Governor Powell spoke after the close and said that the Fed should be “moving slowly toward a more neutral stance” and that it will be appropriate to start reducing the balance sheet when the “economy has significant momentum”. Looking at the day ahead now, this morning in Europe we’ll be kicking off in France where the consumer confidence reading for March will be out. Shortly after that we turn over to the UK with the February money and credit aggregates data due out along with February mortgage approvals data. It’s quiet in the US this afternoon with pending home sales data the only release of note. Away from the data, the Fedspeak today consists of Evans at 1.20pm GMT, Rosengren at 3.30pm GMT and Williams at 5.15pm GMT. The ECB’s Praet is also due to speak at 4.50pm GMT. Also of note today is the aforementioned Article 50 trigger by UK PM Theresa May.
Во вторник, 28 марта, азиатские фондовые индексы продемонстрировали преимущественно положительную динамику по итогам торговой сессии на фоне отскока цен на "черное золото". Фондовый рынок Японии закрылся в плюсе благодаря ослаблению курса йены. Фондовый рынок Австралии вырос на 1,3% и достиг годового максимума. Также стоит отметить, что важной макроэкономической статистики сегодня снова опубликовано не было. Сводный фондовый индекс MSCI Asia Pacific закрылся в плюсе. Японский Nikkei 225 увеличился на 1,01%, китайский Shanghai Composite уменьшился на 0,43%, гонконгский Hang Seng увеличился на 0,5%, южнокорейский KOSPI вырос на 0,35%, а австралийский ASX 200 увеличился на 1,30%. В лидерах роста в составе австралийского индекса S&P/ASX 200 были акции Mantra Group и Ardent Leisure, которые увеличились на 12,26% и 11,04% соответственно. В лидерах снижения были акции Myer Holdings Limited и Isentia Group, просевшие на 5,16% и 3,31% соответственно.
Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months. Safe havens including the yen and bonds climbed as did gold, which continued its advance above the key resistance level of $1,250, while industrial commodities dropped. So-called "Trumpflation trades" - bets that Trump's pro-business policies would stoke growth and inflation in the U.S. and global economies, boosting assets such as commodities - came under heavy selling pressure. The dollar, whose index had surged more than 6 percent in the aftermath of Trump's election to hit 14-year highs at the start of 2017, slipped to its lowest since Nov. 11, two days after the results of the presidential vote. "Investors are viewing this setback as a broader loss of faith in the Trump administration’s ability to deliver on other campaign pledges - namely tax and spending policies, which have underpinned asset prices since the U.S. elections," said ING currency strategist Viraj Patel, in London. U.S. equity index futures suggested stocks would retreat for the seventh time in eight days, with S&P futures sliding below the 50 DMA for the first time since the election. The fall in risk appetite dominated European stockmarkets, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index falling 0.8 percent on the day led by the Basic Resources index which was the biggest sectoral loser, down 2 percent to a two-week low as copper prices slipped, while the banking index was down 1.3 percent. The Euro rose to the highest level of 2017... ... on the heels of a strong German IFO Business Climate reading, which rose to 112.3, beating expectations and above the last 111 print, indicative of a 3% GDP German print. However, a potential red flag emerged in the latest monetary aggregate data out of the Eurozone, where M3 growth dipped from 4.9% to 4.7%, below the 4.9% expected, despite the ECB continuing its monetary blast at record levels, not to mention last week's massive TLTRO. Bucking the weaker trend among European stocks were precious metal miners such as Randgold and Fresnillo, both up more than 1 percent, as risk aversion boosted gold. Gold prices climbed more than 1 percent to a one-month high of $1,259 an ounce. Attention today will remain fixed on Trump’s inability to push through the Republican healthcare bill through the House, which as noted last night, has derailed investor hopes that his pro-business agenda will pass smoothly through Congress. Reflation trades sparked by his election are faltering, with the dollar retreating and the S&P 500 Index headed for its worst month since October. “Trump’s failure to get the health care bill through a Republican majority led Congress has raised some concerns about the President’s ability to implement his agenda of cutting taxes and raising infrastructure spending,” Ole Hansen, chief commodity strategist at Saxo Bank, told Bloomberg. “Failure would deflate further the months-long rally in stocks while reducing the need for further Fed action. The result of this has seen the dollar, stocks and bond yields lower which are all good news for investors looking for gold as an alternative.” The market reaction has been uniformly negative, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling 0.3 percent, with more than three shares falling for every one advancing. Japan’s Topix led declines, dropping 1.3% to the lowest since Feb. 9 and almost wiping out gains for 2017. Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong fell 1.1% and India’s Sensex index slid 0.4 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.9 percent, or 20 points, to 2,324 as of 10:12 a.m. in London. The underlying gauge last week tumbled 1.4%, its worst week of 2017. The Stocks Europe 600 Index fell 0.6 percent as it was dragged down by miners and banks. In terms of relative valuations, U.S. stocks are trading well above their historical averages while Asia stocks are still broadly in line with theirs despite a recent bounce. WTI and Brent both dropped as markets looks past producers' soft committment to extend oil production cuts. A pledge by crude producers to consider extending their output-cut deal failed to excite oil bulls, with prices dropping as more time seen needed to trim swollen global stockpiles. Five OPEC producers joined with non-member Oman to voice support for prolonging supply curbs past June, with Kuwait saying it should be for an additional six months. Committee of ministers from Kuwait, Algeria and Venezuela and their counterparts from Russia and Oman that met over the weekend asked OPEC to review the market and give them a recommendation in April on rolling over the output reductions. Russia said it needs more time before making a decision. Oil prices rallied as OPEC, 11 other major producers including Russia agreed last year to slash production; the rally stalled this month as U.S. output, supplies have continued to grow. Libya’s biggest oil terminal was loading its first tanker since fighting earlier this month halted shipments. “There’s a lot of impatience when we continue to see builds in inventory and growing U.S. output,” Daniel Hynes, an analyst in Sydney at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, says in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The market’s definitely asking for it,” he says, referring to a deal extension. In rates, U.S. Treasury yields fell to a one-month low of 2.35%, while borrowing costs across the euro zone also fell sharply, as investors ditched riskier assets and unwound bets on higher inflation and interest rates. Bulletin Headline Summary European equities slip after US President Trump's healthcare bill collapsed, with markets now questioning whether Trump's other proposals can come to fruition. USD is on the backfoot, while EUR finds support early on with a data heavy week for the Eurozone kicking off to a strong start as German IFO data beats expectations. Looking ahead, highlights include comments from Fed's Evans and Kaplan Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 2,325.00 MXAP down 0.3% to 147.70 MXAPJ down 0.1% to 478.21 Nikkei down 1.4% to 18,985.59 Topix down 1.3% to 1,524.39 Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 24,193.70 Shanghai Composite down 0.08% to 3,266.96 Sensex down 0.5% to 29,284.04 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,746.70 Kospi down 0.6% to 2,155.66 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 374.02 German 10Y yield fell 2.5 bps to 0.378% Euro up 0.6% to 1.0865 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.7% to $50.47/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 4.8 bps to 2.224% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 1.697% Brent Futures down 0.7% to $50.47/bbl Gold spot up 1.1% to $1,257.71 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.5% to 99.13 Top Overnight News German Business Confidence Increases to Strongest Since 2011 Trump Policy Travails Could Boost the Appeal of Asia’s Markets Lockheed’s $29 Billion Copter Poised to Win Pentagon’s Approval Apicorp in JV With Goldman Sachs for Energy Investments Goldman Sachs Said to Be in Talks for Saudi Equities License China Southern Says in Strategic Talks With American Airlines MoneyGram Enters Confidentiality Pact With Euronet Worldwide Fitbit Moves Toward Trial in Jawbone Trade Secrets Theft Case Coca-Cola to Add Fruit Juice to Fanta, Sprite in India: Standard Google Plans to Start Android Pay in S. Korea in May: ETNews Google Faces Demands for Ad Discounts After YouTube: FT Westinghouse Chapter 11 Filing May Come March 28: Nikkei Asia equity markets traded mostly lower as the region digested the cancellation of the American Health Care Act vote on Friday due to insufficient support and the implications on the Trump reflation trade. This pressured US equity futures and Asia-Pac indices alike, with ASX 200 (-0.1%) also weighed by mining names after iron ore prices extended on last week over 7% declines. Nikkei 225 (-1.4%) underperformed on a firmer currency, while Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) and Hang Seng (-0.7%) were choppy for much of the session as downside had been initially counterbalanced by several upbeat earnings and a 31.5% increase in Chinese Industrial Profits. 10yr JGBs traded higher as the cautious risk tone spurred safe-havens flows. However, upside was limited after the BoJ Summary of Opinions provided no surprises and the central bank also refrained from a Rinban announcement. Top Asian News Bonds Surge in India as Rupee Rally Spurs Bets of More Inflows China Said to Approve Carbon Quota Plans for National Market PBOC’s Zhou Signals Financial Opening Will Require Negotiation Don’t Fear This Selloff Is Investors’ Bold Call: Markets Live Skylark’s Largest Shareholder Bain to Sell Part of Its Stake Zhou Signals China Financial Opening Will Need Negotiation Korean Prosecutors Seek to Arrest Park on Graft Allegations Noble Group’s Elman Mixes Mea Culpa and Optimism Before Exit Hong Kong Stocks Decline as Developers Drop Amid Curb Concerns European equities slip after US President Trump's healthcare bill collapsed, with markets now questioning whether Trump's other proposals can come to fruition. As such, there has been a notable broad based sell off as the negative sentiment spares no sector with very few stocks trading in positive territory include precious metal miners, which are being supported by their link with higher gold prices, while financials are providing the biggest drag to EU bourses. In terms of equity specific newsflow, Zurich underperforms in the SMI amid reports that the insurance firm is seeking raise EUR 8.6bIn via a capital increase. Fixed income markets have benefited from the risk averse tone, although the price action among spreads have been somewhat modest. Of note, as we approach the quarter-end, there has been notable corporate issuance. Top European News Oil Producers Consider Extending Output Cuts as Support Grows London Mansion Owners Turn to Airbnb as Buyers Turn Up Noses BOE Cites Brexit Among Financial Stability Risks for U.K. Cecabank Hires BBVA’s Head of Cash Equity Execution for New Unit Minsheng Investment Targets Elderly Care Groups Across Globe In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5 percent. The yen rose 0.9 percent to 110.32 per dollar. The euro gained 0.5 percent to $1.0857 and the British pound added 0.8 percent. There is only one overriding theme the FX markets are trading off, and that is the failure of the Trump administration securing a vote to repeal Obamacare, abandoning proceedings late Friday. The initial response was to be ignored given liquidity issues, but this morning, traders have been left in no doubt as to where market sentiment lies. US Treasuries have been bid up as fiscal stimulus plans in the US have clearly suffered a blow, and watching the cash open on Wall Street, the latest sell off in risk/carry trade does not bode well. USD/JPY is an obvious casualty, but demand still reported ahead of 110.00, and given rate differentials, does not look out of place. EUR/USD has moved higher accordingly, pushing through 1.0850, but as noted, strong resistance levels of note at 1.0900 and 1.0950. Improving economic data in the EU has been a firm driver of trade, with last week's healthy PM! stats across the region backed up by a better than expected German Ifo survey today. Merkel's win in Saarland also supportive.No jitters over Wednesday's scheduled activation of Article 50 as the Pound remains on the front foot. Cable has tested up to 1.2580 today, supported by the USD backdrop, but EUR/GBP also edging back under 0.8650 to put in a strong showing this morning. In commodities, gold rose 1.1 percent to $1,257.28, heading for the highest close since Nov. 10. West Texas Intermediate oil slipped 0.7 percent to $47.62 a barrel, erasing an earlier gain of as much as 0.7 percent. Crude producers pledged to consider extending their pact limiting supply. Iron ore futures slid 3.9 percent, after briefly erasing gains for the year. The commodity surged in the opening weeks of 2017 following a surprise rally last year amid optimism about the demand outlook in China. Copper fell 1.3 percent and tin dropped 2 percent. A mixed bag of drivers in the commodity markets at the moment, but a clear move in precious metals in response to the USD drop as a result of the failure to secure a positive health care vote for the Trump administration. US Treasuries have garnered a bid and this has sent Gold cleanly through USD1250.00, trading a little shy of USD1260.00. Sliver still unable to regain USD18.00 however. Base metals largely in the red, but platinum and palladium getting real money demand out of the European car-makers. Copper has dipped below USD2.60, with a (temporary) resumption in the Escondida mine having a modest positive impact. Iron ore prices in China are taking a hit as reports of China stockpiles at the major ports unsettle the supply/demand balance — demand still relatively steady though. Oil prices continue to look on the heavy side, as any recovery now looks to rest on whether OPEC/non OPEC decide to extend the production cut agreement. Some argue that the existing output adjustments have not fed through to inventory levels. We kick off things this morning in Europe with Germany where the March IFO printed at 112.3, beating expectations and rising from February's 111. The latest M3 money supply reading for the Euro area was released, and disappointed when it dipped from 4.9% to 4.7%, missing expectations. Over in the US the sole release is the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey for March. The Fed's Evans and Kaplan speak later in the day. US Event Calendar 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 22, prior 24.5 1:15pm: Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Madrid 6:30pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in College Station, Texas * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It'll be interesting to know what words Mr Trump spoke on Friday night after the healthcare bill vote was abandoned. Even though defeat is not encouraging for markets there's an element of "healthcare reform is dead, long live tax reform". I write this this morning fairly confused as to how to think about markets in the near term though. The best way to benchmark my thoughts is perhaps to look back at what we expected for 2017 at the end of last year and work out what's occurred relative to expectations and whether anything has changed. The view then was that ultimately central banks pulling back from extreme policy was good for animal spirits and also that Trump was ultimately good for growth. We also thought Europe would have lots of political near misses without a fatal blow. A combination of these near misses and the fact that there was plenty of opportunity to doubt the ability of Trump to be radical growth wise meant we thought we'd have plenty of pockets of volatility without it changing the end result of the year. So as we approach the end of the first quarter where do we stand. Well the aborted health care bill is such an example of doubting Trump's legislative abilities. However so far all it's done is cause a -1.44% sell off in the S&P 500 last week (only the second down week in nine and the worst week since November last year) and a spike intraday on Friday of the VIX to 14.16 and briefly to the highest point of the year. It's still very low historically though so as yet there is no major damage done. This morning S&P futures are -0.50% and as we'll see below sentiment has been a bit softer in Asia. Although the healthcare bill was always going to be a huge test of the new administration's ability to peruse aggressive legislation Mr Trump has so far refrained from being too confrontational in defeat and there seems to be a desire to 'learn' from any mistakes and move on to tax. However he did blame the Freedom Caucus in a tweet yesterday and before that cryptically tweeted that his followers should watch Jeanine Pirro on Fox News on Saturday. On the show she called for Paul Ryan to step down. So this is perhaps some sign of tension and frustration without things blowing up directly. Friday's failure does now increase the risks of further difficult negotiations going forward which Ryan hinted at on Friday night but the reality is that tax reform is of far more economic consequence than healthcare so the market could give the GOP some benefit of the doubt. Event risk should be higher now though and volatility should be higher. However while global growth numbers continue to be decent then the risk premium increases will be probably be more muted than we thought they might be when we published our 2017 outlook. Although we thought growth would hold up in 2017 it's probably surprised on the upside relative to our expectations. So net net it leaves us with similar views to the outlook. A decent year for risk but with the technicals slightly negative for credit and thus encouraging mildly wider spreads. We think Euro IG will outperform HY from this starting point and we expect higher yields. However perhaps the vol we were expecting won't be quite as large even if we think it's still coming. Moving on to the immediate future, this week will see the UK activate article 50 on Wednesday with the Scottish Parliament debating the proposed second independence referendum tomorrow. So watch out for plenty of headlines on these topics. I can't help but think that PM May will have something up her sleeve for announcement day. What I'm not too sure. While on the topic of politics, Mrs Merkel got an unexpected boost yesterday following a relatively comfortable victory in the state election in Saarland. Merkel’s CDU party secured 40.7% of the vote which is up from 35.2% in the 2012 election. The Social Democratic Party, led by new leader Martin Schulz, took home 29.6% which is down from 30.4% five years ago. The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany secured 6.2% of votes. While Saarland is small with just 1 million people, the strong result for Merkel comes following rising support for the SPD following the announcement of Schulz as the leader of the party. Indeed the last 2 opinion polls (Emnid and Infratest dimap) show that support between the two parties at a national level is tied. This compares to the start of the year when the CDU held a double digit lead over the SPD across the vast majority of pollsters. So it’s worth seeing if this result is reflected in the next round of polls. Two more regional elections are due to be held in May (Schleswig-Holstein and Northrhine Westpahlia) before the national election in September. Over in markets this morning there is definitely a slightly more negative tone sweeping through Asia to start the week. That is being reflected in the bid for safe havens with the Yen (+0.89%), Gold (+1.07%) and Treasuries (10y -4.8bps) all stronger. In equities the rally for the Yen isn’t helping the Nikkei (-1.51%) while the ASX (-0.25%) and Kospi (-0.57%) are also in the red. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are little changed however. Staying in Asia for a second, another interesting story from the weekend comes from China where, in a bid to clamp down on further capital flows out of China, banks are asking property agents in Hong Kong not to accept mainland China issued UnionPay cards for home purchases. This follows similar curbs on high priced insurance products and speculative offshore corporate acquisitions. Moving on and quickly recapping Friday’s session. Despite the abandoned healthcare vote coming to a head late in the day the S&P 500 did only finish down a fairly paltry -0.08% and with that in fact had its second best day in the last seven sessions. That said there’s plenty asking the question about whether or not we’re starting to see the unwind of Trump trades and while the headline moves haven’t been particularly eye catching, there is some evidence of it coming through at a domestic and stock specific level. The biggest loser on Friday in the S&P was a company which supplies gravel for roads - Martin Marietta Materials which tumbled -2.93% - which perhaps reflects some fading hopes in the infrastructure trade. Meanwhile, while the move lower in rates has also clearly had a big impact US Banks declined -4.81% last week and are off nearly 8% from the March highs. Small caps – a decent barometer of domestic performance – also tumbled -2.65% last week and fell for the fourth week in five. So perhaps some evidence of pockets of weakness but the overall magnitude of the selloff has still been fairly muted in the grand scheme of things. At the other end of the risk spectrum Gold, which did actually edge down -0.13% on Friday, rallied +1.16% last week and is now back into positive territory month to date. In rates Treasuries didn’t move much on Friday but the 10y yield still finished down 8.8bps last week and is now down around 22bps from the intraday highs just two weeks ago. Finally the US Dollar, measured by the Dollar index, fell -0.67% last week and is now down -2.68% from the early month highs. Closer to home on Friday it was economic data rather than politics which stole the spotlight in Europe. Indeed it was the release of the flash March PMI’s which were the focus with the big news being a further improvement in the Euro area composite PMI this month to 56.7 (vs. 55.8 expected) – a rise of 0.7pts from February. With that the reading notched up a second consecutive cyclical high and encouragingly the growth appeared to be broad-based with both the services (+1pt to 56.5) and manufacturing (+0.8pts to 56.2) PMI’s rising. Regionally both France (+1.7pts to 57.6) and Germany (+0.9pts to 57.0) led the way for the acceleration with the data suggesting a marginal decline (-0.2pts) on average for the composite of the non-core. All in all our economists in Europe highlight that they see a more significant risk from the positive PMIs relative to their view as being for Q2. At its latest level, the euro area composite PMI is in line with the economy growing at between 0.7% and 0.8% qoq. Our economists’ moderate Q2 growth view (0.3%) is predicated on some slowdown in activity due to the political calendar. However, surveys have shown no sign of this having an effect thus far. With less reason to expect temporary effects to weigh on activity as in Q1 (e.g. the very cold January), they see the PMIs as presenting a clearer upside risk to their Q2 view than for Q1. Wrapping up the remaining data on Friday, in the US headline durable goods orders rose a slightly better than expected +1.7% mom in February (vs. +1.4% expected) however largely as a result of a surge in aircraft orders. Indeed core capex orders were -0.1% mom (vs. +0.5% expected). Meanwhile the flash March composite PMI in the US declined 0.9pts to 53.2 and a six month low with both the manufacturing (-0.8pts to 53.4) and services (-0.9pts to 52.9) readings lower. To this week’s calendar now. We’re kicking off things this morning in Europe with Germany where the March IFO survey is due out. The latest M3 money supply reading for the Euro area is also due this morning. Over in the US this afternoon the sole release is the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey for March. With little to highlight in Europe tomorrow, the focus will be on the US where we get the advance goods trade balance for February, wholesale inventories for February, consumer confidence for March, S&P/Case-Shiller house price index for January and Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for March are due. Wednesday kicks off in Japan where retail sales and small business confidence data is due. Over in Europe the focus will be on the UK with the February money and credit aggregates data. In the US on Wednesday the only data due out is pending home sales. Turning to Thursday, during the European session the most notable data is due out of Germany where the first estimate of CPI in March is due. Also due out are various March confidence indicators for the Euro area. In the US on Thursday the early data is the third estimate of Q4 GDP and Core PCE, while initial jobless claims data is also due. The busiest day looks set to be reserved for Friday. In Japan we will get February CPI, industrial production and employment data, while in China the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s for March are due. In Europe we’ll get CPI reports for France and the Euro area along with Q4 GDP in the UK and unemployment in Germany. In the US data due includes February personal income and spending reports, PCE core and deflator readings, the Chicago PMI for March and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading revision. Away from the data the Fedspeak diary this week is packed. Today we see Evans and Kaplan speak, tomorrow we have George, Kaplan and Powell speaking along with Fed Chair Yellen (albeit at a conference which doesn’t suggest a focus on the economy or monetary policy), Wednesday see’s Evans, Rosengren and Williams speak, Thursday has Mester, Williams and Kaplan scheduled and Friday finishes with Kashkari. Away from that other important events this week include the BoE bank stress test scenarios today, a Scottish Parliament debate on a possible independence vote tomorrow and of course UK PM Theresa May officially triggering Article 50 on Wednesday.
Доллар и фьючерсы на американские акции ускорили пятничное падение, золото и облигации росли, так как инвесторы избегали рисковых активов на фоне растущего скептицизма в отношении способности нового президента Трампа проводить в жизнь свои планы в отношении экономики. Иена росла, тогда как эталонные индексы от Японии до Сингапура снижались вместе с фьючерсами на S&P 500 на фоне провала со сделкой по здравоохранению. Доллар был на грани коррекции ралли, вызванного победой Трампа. Австралийские гособлигации росли вместе с трежерис. Нефть снижалась, сдавая прошлый рост, возникший на обещаниях производителей рассмотреть дальнейшее ограничение добычи. Фьючерсы на железную руду скорректировали рост за 2017 год. Волатильность растет с момента, когда индекс S&P 500 показал крупнейший скачок за неделю, коснувшись максимума с декабря. Индексы ценовых колебаний от Гонконга до Индии росли в понедельник, тогда как индекс волатильности для Nikkei 225 вырос на 11%. Фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 потеряли 0.7% по состоянию на 14:45 в Токио. Индекс MSCI Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона снизился на 0.3%, тогда как более трех акций падали на одну растущую. Акции сырьевых компаний возглавили снижение. Японский индекс Topix потерял 1.4%, устремившись к минимальному значению с 9 февраля. Австралийский S&P/ASX 200 снизился на 0.1%, южнокорейский Kospi снизился на 0.6%. Сингапурский Straits Times потерял 0.4%. Иена выросла на 0.9% до 110.36 за доллар, таким образом, за месяц рост составляет 2.2%. Индекс доллара Bloomberg снизился на 0.4%. Он просел более чем на 4% за год. Dollar, S&P 500 Futures Drop on Health-Care Flop, Bloomberg, Mar 27Источник: FxTeam
Режим осторожности в Азии пошел на ослабление в течение торговой сессии в США. Иена снижается, акции растут. Японский индекс Topix восстановил часть потерянного на этой неделе, иена снижалась впервые за последние 9 дней. Фьючерсы на американские акции росли после того, как республиканцы заявили, что готовы поддержать законопроект по здравоохранению. Индекс S&P 500 прошел турбулетный четверг после того, как задержка в голосовании вызвала спекуляции о том, что президент Трамп может столкнуться со сложностями в реализации и других своих обещаний. “Динамика рынка стала опережающей, когда не было известности по Obamacare, - заявил Аяко Сера, рыночный стратег Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. в Токио. - Несколько сложно понять, почему градус ожиданий настолько сильный, учитывая, что уже ночью все станет известно”. Рефляция, вызванная победой Трампа на выборах, охладилась в марте, так как стало понятно, что администрация пока далека от фактической реализации направленной на рост политики, которая бы могла придать импульс акциям и доллару. Рост иены на этой неделе давил на акции в Токио, тогда как активы развивающегося рынка росли с момента повышения процентных ставок в США на прошлой неделе. Иена потеряла 0.4% до 111.37 за доллар по состоянию на 14:43 в Токио после 8 дней подряд роста. Индекс доллара Bloomberg вырос на 0.2%. Британский фунт снизился на 0.3%, как и новозеландский доллар, тогда как евро и осси снизились на 0.2%. Индекс Topix вырос на 0.9%, что привело снижение за неделю до 1.5%. Индекс Nikkei 225 также набрал 0.9%. Австралийский S&P/ASX 200 вырос на 0.8%, южнокорейский Kospi снизился на 0.2%. Индекс Hang Seng снизился на 0.2%, тогда как китайские акции, торгующиеся в Гонконге, потеряли 0.4%. Caution Abates in Asia as Yen Drops, Stocks Rise, Bloomberg, Mar 24Источник: FxTeam
Основные фондовые индексы Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона торгуются в основном выше, поскольку инвесторы проигнорировали слабые сигналы с Уолл-стрит после того, как вчера американские законодатели отложили голосование по законопроекту о здравоохранении. Республиканцы не смогли заручиться необходимой поддержкой и перенесли голосование на сегодня. Результаты голосования будут известны в 18:00-20:00 GMT. Австралийский фондовый рынок расширяется по сравнению с результатами предыдущей сессии. В горнодобывающей промышленности, акции BHP Billiton и Rio Tinto подорожали почти 1% каждый. Банковские акции также подорожали. ANZ Banking, Westpac, National Australia Bank и Commonwealth Bank торгуются в диапазоне от 0,9% до 1,5%. В Commonwealth Bank заявили, что его главный финансовый директор Дэвид Крейг уйдет в отставку в июне после одиннадцати лет руководства и на его место заступит Роб Джесудасон, в настоящее время руководитель группы международных финансовых услуг. Золотоискатели торгуются смешанно, после того как цены на золото снизились незначительно в течение ночи. Бумаги Ньюкрест Mining подорожали на 0,2%, в то время как рыночная стоимость Evolution Mining снизилась почти на 4%. Японский рынок восстановился после слабого старта и развивается, на фоне ослабления курса иены. Среди основных экспортеров, акции Sony подорожали более чем на 2%, Canon - на 0,6%, а Panasonic - на 0,3%. Рыночная стоимость Toshiba набирают более чем на 6%. Автомобилестроители торгуются смешанно, Toyota добавляет почти 1%, в то время как Хонда потеряла менее 0,1% стоимости акций. В банковском секторе, акции Mitsubishi UFJ Financial подорожали почти 2% и Sumitomo Mitsui - более чем на 2%. В нефтяном пространстве, бумаги Inpex и JX Holdings выросли в цене на 0,3% и 1% соответственно. NIKKEI 19236.09 +150.78 +0.79% SHANGHAI 3246.22 -2.33 -0.07% HSI 24308.63 -19.07 -0.08% ASX 200 5752.80 +44.85 +0.79% KOSPI 2168.06 -4.66 -0.21% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Глобальная распродажа акций, которая вызвала наибольшее падение их стоимости после избрания Дональда Трампа президентом США, ослабла, так как инвесторы взяли паузу перед ключевым голосованием по вопросу о здравоохранении в США, сообщает Bloomberg.
Глобальная распродажа акций, которая вызвала наибольшее падение их стоимости после избрания Дональда Трампа президентом США, ослабла, так как инвесторы взяли паузу перед ключевым голосованием по вопросу о здравоохранении в США, сообщает Bloomberg.
Финансовые рынки немного успокоились после массового бегства от рисков. Фондовые индексы и доллар стабилизировались и даже пытаются развить некое подобие восходящей коррекции, а так называемые безопасные активы, в частности, золото, гос. облигации и иена – под давлением. Азиатские фондовые индексы сегодня растут – все за исключением японского Topix, который снизился на 0.2%. S&P/ASX 200 в Ав читать далее…
Глобальная распродажа акций, которая спровоцировала крупнейшее снижение японских акций со времен избрания Трампа, смягчилась на снижении спроса на безопасные активы. Иена оборвала семидневное ралли, золото снижалось. Японский индекс Topix колебался, тогда как австралийские акции росли после того, как подрос индекс S&P 500. Китайские акции, торгующиеся в Гонконге, отскакивали после снижения в среду. Доходность американских десятилеток была устойчива после четырех дней снижения. Киви демонстрировал незначительные изменения динамики после решения РБНЗ сохранить эталонную ставку на рекордном минимуме на уровне 1.75%. Фьючерсы на нефть росли. Рост американский акций несколько успокоил рынки после распродажи, которая распространилась и на Азию в среду. Волатильность взлетела перед голосованием по законопроекту о здравоохранении в Конгрессе. Законодатели сигнализировали, что любые задержки с решениями могут привести к откладыванию планов по снижению налогов и отсрочить также рост расходов, и именно такие перспективы ударили по ралли рисковых активов, которое разворачивалось со времен избрания Трампа президентом в ноябре. Глубина распродажи толкнула некоторых инвесторов к спекуляциям о том, что снижение зашло слишком далеко, учитывая, что данные показывают укрепление глобальной экономики. Южнокорейский Kospi подрос на 0.3%, австралийский S&P/ASX 200 добавил 0.4%. Hang Seng вырос на 0.7% после снижения на 1.8% в течение предыдущей сессии. Индекс MSCI развивающихся рынков вырос на 0.2% после снижения на 0.6% в среду в рамках первого снижения почти за 2 недели. Индекс доллара Bloomberg набрал менее 0.1% после снижения в течение 6 дней. Иена снизилась на 0.2% до 111.37 за доллар после достижения максимального уровня с ноября в среду. Доходность австралийских десятилеток упала на 2 п.п. до 2.74%. Asia Stock Selloff Eases as Yen Weakens With Gold, Bloomberg, Mar 23Источник: FxTeam
Основные фондовые индексы Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона торгуются в зеленой зоне, после смешанных торгов на Уолл-стрит на фоне продолжающихся опасений по поводу способности президента США Дональда Трампа реализовать свою политическую программу. Доходы скромны на большинстве азиатских рынков. Последние отчеты показывают, что республиканцы могут не набрать нужное количество голосов на сегодняшнем голосовании в Палате представителей Конгресса США, по новому законопроекту здравоохранения. Это первый законопроект президента Трампа, после вступления в должность, и его не принятие может поставить под угрозу другие реформы, таких как снижение налогов и увеличение расходов на инфраструктуру. Австралийский фондовый рынок устроив, тем не менее, опасения по поводу экономических страдегий Трампа продолжает оказывать давление на настроения инвесторов. Доходы в горнодобывающей промышленности и нефтяных запасах помогли компенсировать слабость банковских акций. Акции BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto и Fortescue Metals торгуются с ростом около 1%1. В то же время, акции банков являются слабыми: ANZ Banking, Westpac, National Australia Bank и Commonwealth Bank торгуются в диапазоне от 0,2 % до 0,8%. Котировки на токийском фондовом рынке торгуются в плюсе. Японские экспортеры торгуются в основном ниже не фоне укрепления курса иены. Акции Toshiba выросли более чем на 11%, в то время как Canon увеличил капитализацию всего на 0,1%, а Panasonic потерял 0,3%. Бумаги Inpex подорожали на 0,6% и JX Holdings более чем на 1% на фоне небольшого восстановления цен на нефть с начала сессии .NIKKEI 19052.19 +10.81 +0.06% SHANGHAI 3255.13 +9.91 +0.31% HSI 24406.99 +86.58 +0.36% ASX 200 5700.80 +16.29 +0.29% KOSPI 2174.37 +6.07 +0.28% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Фондовые рынки столкнулись с крупнейшим снижением со времен избрания Дональда Трампа, так как Уолл-Стрит сейчас чрезвычайно сильно обеспокоена бизнес-повесткой Трампа на фоне резкого спроса на безопасные активы. Просев на 1.2% во вторник, прервав 109 дневную череду роста без падений более чем на 1%, индекс S&P 500 умеренно снижался и на открытии сессии в среду. Промышленный индекс Доу-Джонса, который показал вчера крупнейшее снижение за год, просел на 0.1% в начале торгов. Европейские акции оставались под давлением в ходе торгов после обеда. Лондонский FTSE 100 упал на 0.7%, франкфуртский Xetra Dax 30 снизился на 0.4%. Индекс Euro Stoxx 600 снизился на 0.6%, акции добывающего и банковского секторов показали крупнейшее снижение. Колебания вокруг реформы здравоохранения размыли оптимизм в отношении способности Трампа выполнять свои предвыборные обещания также в направлении сокращения налогов, инфраструктурных расходов, а также дерегуляции. В рамках так называемого Трамп-трейдинга инвесторы возлагали все надежды на эти реформы, которые должны были, по их мнению, стимулировать экономический рост и повысить доходы. Азиатские биржи следовали за снижением в США и Европе: эталонные индексы в Сиднее и Токио также прошли худшие дни с начала ноября. Индекс ASX 200 закрылся со снижением на 1.6%, тогда как японский Topix потерял 2.1%, пробивая минимальное значение за 3 недели. Падение индекса в Токио усугубилось сильным спросом на иену, которая является традиционным безопасным активом, чей курс серьезно влияет на экспортеров страны. Валюта достигла максимальных значений за 4 месяца, толкая доллар обратно к ¥111.4. European markets join selling as Trump trade falters, FT, Mar 22Источник: FxTeam
По планам новый Mitsubishi Outlander должен был появиться в первой половине 2019 года, а новый Mitsubishi ASX — в 2020 году. Теперь сроки выхода кроссоверов отложены до 2020 и 2021 года соответственно, сообщает Automotive News. Причиной изменения графика дебюта новинок стала продажа марки альянсу Nissan-Renault.Франко-японский концерн остановил разработку кроссоверов Mitsubishi, чтобы найти возможности для унификации Mitsubishi ASX с Nissan Qashqai, а Mitsubishi Outlander — с Nissan X-Trail. Для снижения затрат на производство планируется использовать максимальное количество одинаковых элементов, которые не видны снаружи.Ранее Лайф сообщал, что весной 2016 года компания Nissan приобрела 34% акций Mitsubishi, став таким образом крупнейшим акционером автопроизводителя. Сумма сделки составила больше $2 млрд.
Все фондовые биржи Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона (АТР), кроме биржи Лаоса, завершили в минусе торги в среду после падения американских фондовых индексов во вторник рекордными темпами с сентября.
Акции снижались по всей Азии после того, как индекс S&P 500 снизился максимально с момента избрания Трампа. Торги колебались из-за неопределенности вокруг политики нового президента. Иена укреплялась, так как инвесторы направились в сторону безопасных активов. Индекс MSCI Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона снизился максимально с декабря, тогда как акции финансового и сырьевого секторов возглавили распродажу. Эталонные индексы Японии, Гонконга и Австралии снижались, по крайней мере, на 1.3% после того, как индекс S&P 500 просел более чем на 1% впервые с 11 октября. Индекс развивающихся рынков оборвал восьмидневное ралли. Снижение доходности государственных облигаций продолжилось, иена продолжала ралли седьмой день подряд. Золото сохраняло рост, тогда как базовые металлы снижались. Волатильность на финансовых рынках росла после периода относительного затишья на фоне растущих опасений в отношении направленной на рост американской политики, которая может не пройти утверждение Конгресса. Планы республиканцев по отмене и замене Obamacare вызывают сильную оппозицию перед решающим голосованием в палате представителей. Индекс MSCI All-Country достиг максимального значения на прошлой неделе, тогда как индекс MSCI для развивающихся рынков упал на 1.5% по состоянию на 11:38 в Токио. Японский Topix потерял 1.9%, что стало крупнейшим снижением со времен избрания Трампа. Распродажа происходила несмотря на то, что данные показывают рост японского экспорта в максимальном темпе за два года в феврале. Австралийский S&P/ASX 200 снижался на 1.6%. Индекс MSCI для развивающихся рынков падал впервые за последние 9 дней на 0.9%. Южнокорейский Kospi потерял 0.8%. Asia Stocks Follow U.S. Selloff While Yen Gains, Bloomberg, Mar 22Источник: FxTeam
Японская компания Mitsubishi перенесла выпуск новых генераций внедорожников Outlander и ASX на неопределенный срок
European stocks are modestly in the green as gains in banks and oil companies offset declines in miners. Asian stocks and S&P futures rise with Emerging-market stocks extending their longest winning streak since August on the back of the 5th consecutive daily drop in the USD. The euro rose to the strongest in six weeks after a French presidential debate eased market concerns about a possible Le Pen win: the first French debate was reportedly won by centrist Emmanuel Macron. For those who missed it, last night saw the first televised debate between the candidates. Those who tuned in may be feeling a little jaded as the debate ended up lasting a whopping three and a half hours. There were plenty of head to head moments between Macron and Le Pen in particular which included much finger pointing and also amusing bouts of sarcasm. Immigration was unsurprisingly a hot topic while the exchanges also moved over to the economy and various policy measures. The general feeling was certainly one of it being lively however. Markets were largely waiting for some sort of conclusion about who came out on top though and following the debate an Elabe poll (covering 1157 respondents) found that Macron was seen as the winner of the debate at 29% with Melenchon second with 20%. Fillon and Le Pen came in joint third at 19% and Hamon came in fifth at 11%. An Opinionway poll showed 25% for Macron; in both polls Fillon and Le Pen were tied at 19%. "From the point of view of international investors, this is a positive as it keeps France's position in the euro zone secure, or at least not weaker," said DZ Bank analyst Rene Albrecht. As a result, the average probability of Macron win implied from betting odds climbed 2ppts to over 63%... ... boosting the Euro and peripheral bonds while pressuing Bunds. It’s worth noting that there are another two debates to come prior to the first round election on April 23rd. It's also worth noting that Hillary Clinton was seen as the comfortable winner in all the US Presidential debates. Taking a cue from the debate polling which showed Macron as the most convincing, German bonds slid from the open, with French election risks seen waning. Losses extended in bunds after stronger-than-expected U.K. inflation data pressured gilts lower, with 10y U.K. yields climbing by around 6bps. MPC-dated SONIA rate jumps to price in almost one full hike by August 2018. The easing of French election risk has firmed rate-hike expectations for the ECB. Euribor strip has bear steepened from the open, with market pricing now showing over 20bps of rate increases priced by Sept. 2018. ECB rate expectations have seen the 5y sector on the German curve underperform, now cheaper by around 2bps on the 2s5s10s fly. French bonds meanwhile opened higher after the debate, with 10y yields dropping as much as 4bps. The move was quickly faded, as has been repeatedly observed in similar bouts of optimism around the French election. OATs now little changed. The biggest winner, however, was the Euro, which rose to just shy of 1.08, the strongest in more than a month. “When you consider how many people have been worried about this election and how cheap the euro is, if that risk were to go away then there’s the potential for money to flow into Europe,” said Andrew Sheets, chief cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley in London. “That would be another form of volatility. There’s always a risk of large moves when valuations are extreme -- and the euro is quite cheap.” The dollar index fell below 100 for the first time since early February and was down almost half a percent on the day. The currency was on the defensive after Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans reinforced the perception that the U.S. central bank will not accelerate the pace of its interest rate hikes. He said on Monday that two more interest rate hikes this year were likely, disappointing investors who had anticipated rates would be increased more quickly. The greenback is on its longest losing streak since November after the Federal Reserve’s dovish message on the speed of monetary tightening last week. European stock markets opened higher after a rally in Asia, where MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit 21-month highs. U.S. stock futures pointed to a positive start for Wall Street, which had suffered on Monday as investors worried that President Donald Trump's plan to cut taxes and boost the economy would take longer than expected to realize. South Korea led gains among Asian emerging markets, with the Kospi jumping 1 percent to the highest since July 2011. Hyundai Motor Co. climbed 8.6 percent amid market speculation over a possible stake purchase by Elliott Management. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added less than 0.1 percent at 9:48 a.m. in London. Banking stocks outperformed, led by Italian and French lenders, as worries over the French presidential election further abated. Mining stocks lost ground, trimming recent sharp gains. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent. The benchmark gauge fell 0.2 percent on Monday. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly fell to two-week lows following the comments to 2.461 percent. It last stood at 2.48%. Oil prices rallied on expectations that an OPEC-led production cut to prop up the market could be extended. Prices for front-month Brent crude futures LCOc1, the international benchmark for oil, gained 1 percent to $52.13 per barrel. OPEC members increasingly favor extending the output curb beyond June to balance the market, sources within the group said, although they added this would require non-OPEC members such as Russia to also step up their efforts. Elsewhere, Deutsche Bank was in focus as the subscription period for a capital raising began on Tuesday. Also today, Nike, FedEx, and General Mills are among companies scheduled to publish results * * * Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk Sentiment in Europe received a lift from the open as participants reacted to a perceived strong performance from Macron in last night's French presidential debate. GBP ramps higher after inflation rises to the highest level since Sep'13 Looking ahead, focus will Canadian retail sales, API crude report as well as comments from Fed's George and Mester. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2373.5 STOXX Europe 600 up less than 0.1% to 378 MXAP up 0.1% to 149 MXAPJ up 0.3% to 483.23 Nikkei down 0.3% to 19,455.88 Topix down 0.2% to 1,563.42 Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 24,593.12 Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,261.61 Sensex down 0.3% to 29,432.19 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.07% to 5,774.62 Kospi up 1% to 2,178.38 German 10Y yield rose 2.8 bps to 0.468% Euro up 0.5% to 1.0795 per US$ Brent Futures up 0.9% to $52.06/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 2.364% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.843% Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,229.24 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.4% to 100.01 Top Overnight News from BBG PPG Said to Ready New Akzo Offer After Failed $22.4 Billion Bid Fed’s Dudley Says Wells Fargo Shows Bank Culture Needs Improving Google Overhauls Policies After Uproar Over YouTube Videos Deutsche Bank Said to Face Regulatory Fines Over Currency Trades Mideast Airlines Say New U.S. Restrictions Will Force Changes BlackRock Likes Property Even After Yellen Calls Prices ‘High’ BMW Sees 2017 Profit Rising Slightly as Spending Exceeds Target Banking Panel Senators Make Bipartisan Call for Growth Proposals Baidu’s iQiyi Signs Pact With Warner Bros. on Movie Rights Chevron Says New LNG Projects Unlikely in West Australia NYSE Says It Has Identified, Fixed Cause of Arca Disruption In Asian Markets, the major equity indices traded somewhat mixed following a similar lead from Wall St., where financials underperformed and participants were indecisive amid a lack of tier-1 data releases. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was dampened by weakness in telecoms and underperformance in the financial sector, while Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) lagged on return from an extended weekend, although downside was stemmed as USD/JPY nursed losses. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were kept afloat following the continued liquidity operations by the PBoC which resulted in a 2nd day of net injections. Finally, 10 year JGBs traded higher amid a dampened risk tone in Japan and with the BoJ present in the market for a total JPY 1.15tIn of JGBs ranging from 1-10yr maturities. PBoC injected CNY 50bIn 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bIn in 28-day reverse repos Top Asian News SoftBank Is Said to Invest in WeWork at $17 Billion Valuation Downer Makes A$1.26 Billion Takeover Offer for Spotless McDonald’s China Says It’s Not Affected by Ban on Brazil Meat Billionaire Damani’s Avenue Supermarts Shares Double on Debut Modi-Backed ETF May Fuel India Sales After $1.4 Billion Haul China H Shares Rise to Highest Since 2015; Power Producers Gain M1 Bids May Not Come Above S$2.20/Share, Religare’s Jin Says India’s HPCL to Use Honeywell Clean-Fuel Technology Freeport Indonesia Restarts Copper Concentrate Mill: Spokesman European risk sentiment received a lift from the open as participants reacted to a perceived strong performance from Macron in last night's French presidential debate. As such European equities opened higher, with Euro Stoxx 50 spending much of the session higher by around 0.5%. On a sector breakdown, financials are among the best performers as Deutsche Bank trades higher on the session after going ex-subscription to their capital raising plans. Elsewhere Akzo Nobel are among the best performers on a stock specific basis as M&A news continues to circulate, with pre-market reports today suggesting PPG is preparing a renewed takeover offer for the Co. The notable data of the session, came in the form of UK CPI, with the higher than exp. reading (Y/Y 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.1%) seeing gilts underperform and sending GBP/USD towards 1.2450. The GBP strength has further exacerbated pressure on the USD, with the USD-index slipping below 100, while the French presidential election saw EUR/USD touch 1.0800. Fixed income markets have been pressured by the aforementioned risk on sentiment, with Bunds down 35 ticks on the session, while OATs saw a paring of some of their initial losses in the wake of reports that PM Cazeneuve asked govt. members not to back Macron. Top European News EU Makes U.K. Wait to Start Brexit Talks as Trigger Date Set Macron on Top After First Debate of French Presidential Election Porsche SE Posts Profit as Owner Clan Plans to Buy Out Piech Swiss Watch Slump Extends Record Decline as U.S. Exports Slide Fingerprint Cards Withdraws Dividend Plan as Revenue Plummets Abertis Gives Information on Ruling on AP-7 Accounting Treatment Swedish Casino Company Takes Breather From Deals to Drive Growth Poland Needs Innovation to Catch Up With West, World Bank Says In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped by 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent drop Tuesday. The euro was up by 0.5 percent at $1.0796, while it rose versus all of its G-10 peers. The British pound traded 0.7 percent higher after data showed U.K. inflation rose faster than expected. The main mover of the morning has been GBP, which had been trending higher ahead of the inflation report to trip above 1.2400. In the wake of the release, GBP continued its ascension after CPI beat expectations, subsequently stoking expectations that the overshoot will force the Bank of England to act through potentially hiking rates, as such, a 25bps hike is now fully priced in by Aug'18. Elsewhere, a reassuring performance from Macron in the first presidential TV debate has buoyed EUR, with the currency touching 1.08 against the greenback. RBA minutes from Mar 7th meeting stated that it judged steady policy was consistent with growth and inflation targets and that rising AUD/USD would complicate economic transition. RBA also stated that economic growth is to accelerate gradually to above potential over the next 2 years and higher commodity prices could last longer than first thought given the stronger global demand. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate oil climbed 0.8 percent to $48.60 before U.S. inventory data on Wednesday and as Libya prepared to restart crude shipments from major ports. Copper slumped 0.7 percent amid signs supplies are returning; disruptions caused the metal to surge last month to the highest level since 2015; prices slipped after reports that the union for workers on strike at the BHP Billiton Escondida copper mine held talks with the company and also coincided with a 4% drop in Dalian iron ore futures during Asian trade. Gold (-0.4%) prices pulled back from 2 week highs after four days of gains, while the softness in the USD index has supported oil prices with Brent futures above USD 52/bbl and WTI above USD 49/bbl ahead of the API inventories after market. Looking at the day ahead, in the US the diary remains sparse with just the Q4 current account balance reading expected. Away from the data this morning we are expected to hear from the Fed’s Dudley and BoE’s Carney at a bank ethics event in London, while this afternoon we are due to hear from the Fed’s George and then this evening the Fed’s Mester is due to speak. The EU finance ministers meeting will also continue in Brussels this morning. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Current Account Balance, est. $129.0b deficit, prior $113.0b deficit Central Banks 6:35am: Fed’s Dudley, BOE’s Carney Speak at Bank Ethics London Event 12pm: Fed’s George Speaks in Washington on U.S. Economy and the Fed 6pm: Fed’s Mester Speaks at University of Richmond 9:45pm: Boston Fed Rosengren Speaks in Bali at Asia-Pacific Meeting DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Will France wake up this morning feeling more confident about the upcoming Presidential race? Well last night saw the first televised debate between the candidates. Those who tuned in may be feeling a little jaded as the debate ended up lasting a whopping three and a half hours. There were plenty of head to head moments between Macron and Le Pen in particular which included much finger pointing and also amusing bouts of sarcasm. Immigration was unsurprisingly a hot topic while the exchanges also moved over to the economy and various policy measures. The general feeling was certainly one of it being lively however. Markets were largely waiting for some sort of conclusion about who came out on top though and following the debate an Elabe poll (covering 1157 respondents) found that Macron was seen as the winner of the debate at 29% with Melenchon second with 20%. Fillon and Le Pen came in joint third at 19% and Hamon came in fifth at 11%. It’s worth noting that there are another two debates to come prior to the first round election on April 23rd. It's also worth noting that Hillary Clinton was seen as the comfortable winner in all the US Presidential debates. Prior to the outcome from that poll the Euro did touch as low as 1.072 overnight versus the US Dollar but bounced post the news and hit a high of 1.078, or up just under half a percent with the market seemingly comforted that the debate failed to yield any further support to Le Pen’s chances. The Euro is now sitting at 1.076 as we go to print. Meanwhile equity markets are once again a bit mixed. Having been closed on Monday bourses in Japan are open again with the Nikkei currently -0.27%. The ASX (-0.16%) is also down however there are small gains for the Hang Seng (+0.31%), Shanghai Comp (+0.19%) and more notably the Kospi (+1.02%). US equity index futures are also up about +0.20% while Gold is -0.57% so suggesting a slightly more positive environment for risk at the margin this morning. While we’re on France, we thought it would be worth highlighting a report published by our colleagues yesterday in Europe summarising the results of their recently conducted global cross asset survey about investors’ views of asset returns one week after the French presidential election. They summarise that a Le Pen or a Left win is, perhaps unsurprisingly, strongly associated with Negative or Very Negative risk asset outcomes. A Centre win is mainly associated with Positive (but not Very Positive) outcomes, suggesting investors remain cautious about the economic environment, regardless of outcome. Many investors are neutrally positioned, but of non-neutral investors there is a distinct tilt towards long volatility and long hedges. A negative outcome is largely associated with high equity vol and sharp equity falls. In a positive outcome, the majority expectation is for limited equity upside only; however, we highlight a notable tail of expectations in the highly positive scenario, i.e. for very low vol and large equity upside. In rates the dominant expectation is for stable / higher yields regardless of election outcome. FX markets show a more bearish tilt, with EURUSD below parity in a negative outcome. In addition, upside is more limited – only 26% of respondents see EUR/USD above 1.10 in a positive outcome. Moving on. In what was an otherwise very quiet day for the most part yesterday, it was the chorus of Fedspeak which markets were most concentrated on. Of particular focus was the Chicago Fed’s Evans who made the case for the Fed hiking 2 or 3 more times this year. Evans also said that he expects inflation to hit 2% in 2018 and that things are “much more balanced around the outlook” than they were two years ago. The Philadelphia Fed President Harker also spoke and said that he expects the Fed to overshoot the 2% inflation target “a little bit” and that he would not rule out a faster or slower pace of hikes in 2017 than the three he has projected so far. Finally there was a much more dovish angle to the Fedspeak yesterday too with Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also speaking. He said that “we do not have a high inflation threat right around the corner” and that ‘I’d be very surprised if core inflation reaches 2% this year”. He also said that “the data are basically moving sideways, so I’m asking, what’s the rush to raise rates”. Aside from the Fedspeak, there wasn’t a huge amount more for markets to feed off aside from some political related stories. The G-20 news from the weekend came and went however a lot of the focus was on the news that the FBI has confirmed that it is conducting a broad inquiry into a possible link between President Trump’s presidential campaign in 2016 and Russia. Meanwhile here in the UK we got the confirmation that PM Theresa May will trigger Article 50 on March 29th and so officially starting the clock on negotiations. The European Council President Donald Tusk confirmed that he will present the draft Brexit guidelines to the EU27 members states within 48 hours. It’s worth noting also that a provisional plan for the EU to hold a summit on April 6th to discuss early negotiation plans has been pushed back to late April/early May, all of which obviously eats into PM May’s negotiating time frame. Over in markets the end result of all the Fedspeak and various political related headlines was a very modest risk off start to the week. The S&P 500 ended -0.20% by the closing bell and so confirming a third consecutive daily decline following last Wednesday’s big post-FOMC rally. The Stoxx 600 (-0.17%) was down a similar amount and fell for the first time since last Tuesday. The exception was once again in EM however where the MSCI EM index (+0.70%) rose for the seventh consecutive session. In government bonds 10y Treasury yields dipped 4bps to 2.462% and are now down to the lowest yield since March 6th having touched an intraday high of 2.628% a week ago. In Europe bond markets didn’t really do much although Greek bonds were a bit weaker after Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem said at a finance minister’s meeting that “some key issues” still remain to be sorted out between Greece and its creditors and that talks will continue and intensify in coming days. Moving on. Yesterday’s data was fairly thin on the ground. In the US the sole release was the Chicago Fed national activity index which came in at a better than expected 0.34 in February (vs. 0.03 expected) and in doing so has pushed the three-month average up to 0.24 which is the highest since December 2014. In Germany PPI was reported as rising +0.2% mom in February which was a little less than expected. Meanwhile in the UK the Rightmove index of house prices showed prices as stable at +2.3% yoy in March. The other data concerned the latest weekly ECB CSPP holdings where the average daily run rate last week of €363m more or less matched the average €367m since the program started. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the focus will be on the UK where we will get the February CPI/RPI/PPI data (with headline CPI expected come in at +0.5% mom and headline RPI at +0.8% mom). We will also get the February public sector net borrowing data in the UK and then the March CBI industrial trends survey. This afternoon in the US the diary remains sparse with just the Q4 current account balance reading expected. Away from the data this morning we are expected to hear from the Fed’s Dudley and BoE’s Carney at a bank ethics event in London, while this afternoon we are due to hear from the Fed’s George and then this evening the Fed’s Mester is due to speak. The EU finance ministers meeting will also continue in Brussels this morning.
Поглощение альянсом Renault-Nissan существенно перетасовало колоду производственных планов компании Mitsubishi Motors. По самым свежим данным, текущее поколение японских кроссоверов задержится на конвейере дольше, чем планировалось.
Американский доллар сегодня с утра демонстрирует смешанную динамику: инвесторы, кажется все еще никак не могут забыть про заседание Федрезерва, состоявшееся на прошлой неделе, и переключиться на что-то другое. Азиатские фондовые рынки в основном снижаются, однако динамика обусловлена местными факторами. Австралийский S&P/ASX 200 и японский Topix потеряли с утра по 0.1%, а Hang Seng в Гонконге читать далее…