02 апреля, 14:08

Futures Slide With Most Markets On Holiday As China Strikes Back In Trade Wars

Global markets started the new week and quarter with very muted trading in Asia as most key markets including Australia, New Zealand , Hong Kong, Canada, UK and most parts of Europe remain closed for Easter holidays. US stock futures are lower... ...and equities in Asia have given up the gains seen early in the session amid fears of escalating trade wars, while European markets remain offline. As a reminder, overnight China announced that that starting Monday it would impose tariffs on U.S. products including frozen pork, wine and certain fruits and nuts in response to U.S. duties on imports of aluminum and steel. MSCI’s world equity index ended up 1.2% last week, but it lost about 1.5% in the first quarter, pushed away from record highs as tensions over global trade escalated, turmoil in the White House deepened and market-leading technology firms wobbled on fears of regulation and other issues. Still, so far the S&P 500 has tested and held the 200d MA twice and has again begun to bounce / stabilize, as all eyes remain on this key technical support level. “We expect strong and broad-based growth to continue globally,” wrote strategists at Barclays who warned that there were looming risks: “Trade protectionism, U.S. economic policy uncertainty, concerns about higher cross-market volatility and risk premium in core rates markets call for a more tactical approach to risk assets.” With FX markets on a standstill (more below), the key focus of note today will be China’s new tariffs on 128 US products which officially start today, as well as  softer manufacturing PMI data from many countries in Asia. The main themes remain the same: trade tensions, a dovish start to life under Powell at the Fed, soggy wages and potentially further changes to the Trump administration, Brexit headline risks, rate hike outlooks being pushed forward in the antipodeans, uncertainty around ECB, JPY’s volatility and political risks in EM and for Oil. What Asian markets were open saw aggressive profit-taking into the close: Chinese stocks erased gains to end Monday at session lows, following their worst quarter in two years. Brokers bucked broad market declines after the central government announced a trial program for Chinese Depositary Receipts. The Shanghai Composite closed down 0.2%, wiping out an earlier advance of 0.7%. Similarly in Japan, the Topix closes down 0.4%, erasing gain of as much as 0.4%, with volume 20% below 30-day average. Banks were the biggest drag on benchmark, outweighing gain in "other products" gauge. The Nikkei also slumped 0.3% after wiping out a 0.7% rise. Ovenright we got the latest Japan Tankan data: large manufacturers tankan came at 24 (expected 25), with the Japan Tankan manufacturing outlook disappointing at 20 (vs expected 22). The budget rate for USDJPY was lowered a bit from 110.67 to 109.66 during FY2018. CitiFX Strategist Osamu Takashima says, “I believe most of manufacturing companies have lowered it further toward 105 more recently.” Asian manufacturing PMI for March have mainly disappointed today and while this is not having an impact on the immediate price action, it is something to keep an eye on. Of note, China's March Caixin manufacturing PMI data came lower than expected at 51.0 versus exp. 51.7. It has been a quiet start to the FX week as well, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falling 0.1%, extending the three-day slide to 0.4% although staying within a tight range, amid muted trading due to the Easter holiday. The pound led gains among G-10 currencies at the start of a week flooded with tier-one data releases out of the U.S, while the yen was marginally weaker after Tankan survey slips. Of note: for Monday, the The People’s Bank of China raised the daily reference rate for the yuan to strongest since Aug. 11, 2015, aka the "day of the devaluation", as the dollar weakened: PBOC raised the yuan reference rate by 0.19% to 6.2764 per dollar. The fixing was in line with expectations: average estimate in Bloomberg survey of 17 traders and analysts was 6.2762. Some of the other notable FX moves, from Bloomberg: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%; the measure declined for a fifth straight quarter, ended March 30, its worst run since March 2008 The pound is the biggest mover amid thin trading as some markets in Asia and Europe remained shut for Easter holidays Sterling rises for the first time in five days versus the dollar, climbing 0.4% to $1.4064; rises 0.3% to 87.67 pence against the euro The Japanese yen is little changed during London hours after weakening slightly in Asia; analysts project it will weaken against all its G-10 peers this quarter; USD/JPY is forecast to climb to 108 by the end of June, from the current level of 106.35, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey shows U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbs 2bps to 2.76% after its third straight quarterly advance in the period through March 30 Crude oil prices extended gains, lifted by a drop in U.S. drilling activity as well as by expectations that the United States could re-introduce sanctions against Iran. U.S. drillers cut seven oil rigs in the week to March 29, bringing the total count down to 797. It was the first time in three weeks that the rig-count fell. U.S. crude futures rose 0.3 percent to $65.14 a barrel and Brent advanced 0.5 percent to $69.67 a barrel. Bahrain said it has discovered its biggest oil field in more than 80 years. The “highly significant” oil and deep gas resource is thought to dwarf the Gulf kingdom’s current reserves, according to an official announcement on Sunday. It is located in the Khaleej al-Bahrain basin, located off the country’s west coast. “Initial analysis demonstrates the find is at substantial levels, capable of supporting the long-term extraction of tight oil [light crude] and deep gas,” said Bahrain’s minister of oil, Shaikh Mohamed bin Khalifa al-Khalifa. This week, Fed Chairman Jay Powell will be giving his first speech since the FOMC March meeting. He will be giving a speech on the economic outlook on Friday, April 6 during a visit to Chicago. The speech is at 12:30 Chicago time, which is 11:30 EST and 16:30 BST. This will come just after the latest payrolls and AHE report. U.S. data due this week include Monday’s Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index, Wednesday’s ISM non-manufacturing index and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Below is a list of the top Bloomberg Economics news to start the week: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was on a tear in a series of speeches Saturday, attacking supporters of high interest rates, Israel for its actions in Gaza and Kosovo’s leader for protecting Turkey’s political enemies Electricite de France SA is among companies that have warned the U.K. government about the business threats of Brexit, according to a report in the Mail on Sunday that cites confidential documents More trade spats. While China’s retaliatory tariffs on 128 kinds of U.S. imported goods take effect Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his threat to dump Nafta if Mexico didn’t stem the flows of drugs and people from Central America into the U.S. Opening the wallets. Japanese businessmen say they’ll boost investment this year even as the stronger yen puts a dent in their confidence China’s Caixin PMI eased in March, in contrast to a rebound in the official PMI released over the weekend, clouding the growth picture for the end of the first quarter Music diplomacy. K-Pop girl band Red Velvet on Sunday headlined the first of two concerts packed with South Korean music groups to an audience that included North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his wife Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,635.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 370.87 MSCI Asia Pacific unchanged at 172.76 MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.3% to 565.48 Nikkei down 0.3% to 21,388.58 Topix down 0.4% to 1,708.78 Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 30,093.38 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,163.18 Sensex up 0.7% to 33,195.21 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5,759.37 Kospi down 0.07% to 2,444.16 Brent Futures up 1% to $70.02/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,331.70 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.08% to 89.90 German 10Y yield unchanged at 0.497% Euro up 0.05% to $1.2330 Brent Futures up 0.8% to $69.91/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 5.4 bps to 1.532% Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.164% Top Overnight News China urged trade talks with the U.S. to prevent greater damage to relations while saying that previously announced retaliatory measures on American imports took effect Monday Trump administration to unveil the list of Chinese imports targeted for tariffs this week, according to unnamed officials: Reuters Investors, strategists and traders remain bullish on emerging assets for the rest of 2018, a Bloomberg survey shows. Top picks are Asian stocks, followed by Latin American bonds, according to the survey of 15 participants conducted March 22-28; In currencies, Asia came top again, ahead of Europe, the Middle East and Africa and Latin America With pressure escalating after one of the worst weeks in its almost 15-year-history, Tesla Inc. raced to manufacture and deliver its mission-critical Model 3 sedan to burnish the numbers it’s about to report to rattled investors More American consumers than at any time in 27 years are convinced that it’s better to make big purchases now because retailer discounts and deals won’t be around much longer, according to the University of Michigan’s latest survey of consumer sentiment The U.S. Treasury Department plans to meet with market makers and other electronic trading firms to discuss ways to bring more transparency to the $14.5 trillion market for government debt, according to a person familiar with the matter President Donald Trump threatened to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement if Mexico doesn’t stop people and drugs from flowing into the U.S. from Central America Japan 1Q Tankan index 24 vs 25 est, outlook 20 vs 22 est Asia equity markets were mostly higher but with gains contained amid a holiday-quietened tone (Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, EU and UK are all closed) and as participants digested several key data releases including mostly better than expected Chinese PMI figures. Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) was positive as the index shrugged off a disappointing BoJ Tankan where large manufacturers’ sentiment deteriorated for the first time in 2 years and large industry numbers mostly missed forecasts, as the data also showed a strong all industry capex component and increased confidence across smaller businesses. Elsewhere, KOSPI (+0.2%) was also higher amid the improved geopolitical climate in the Korean peninsula, while Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) was underpinned after better than expected Chinese Official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data over the weekend. Conversely, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI release was less inspiring and fell short of estimates while China also confirmed tariffs on US products in retaliation to US protectionist measures on steel and aluminium, which in turn capped advances in the mainland. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful with price action range-bound amid gains in riskier assets as well as an unchanged BoJ Rinban announcement Top Asian News China Urges More Trade Talks as Tariffs on U.S. Goods Begin Japan Stocks to Watch: Oriental Land, Retail, Shimamura, Toyota Gold Climbs as Investors Weigh Rise in Trade Tensions Indonesia May Need to Follow Fed Hikes, Ex-Finance Chief Says Indian Road Builders Jump on Outlook After Year of Record Orders Markets across Europe are closed for Easter Monday. Top European News Russian Stocks Are Cheap, And With Good Reason: Markets Live Portugal’s CP Has Some Train Services Halted Due to Strike: TSF UAE Weighs Investment in Baikonur Cosmodrome Upgrade: Interfax Ukraine’s Privatbank Says It Sues PwC in Cyprus Court Orthodox Policies May Boost Russian Bonds Prosafe Says Standstill Pact With Cosco Extended to May 20 Russia Fintech Will Make Winners, Just Not for Stocks In FX, the dollar was steady at 106.350 yen, while the euro was almost unchanged at $1.2317. The greenback had gained about 0.6 percent against a basket of six major currencies last week helped by a combination of factors including perceived progress on North Korea issues. The dollar index still lost more than 2 percent last quarter, marking its fifth straight quarter of declines. “A list of important indicators will be released this week, which could help steady market sentiment even though U.S.-China trade concerns and other geopolitical risks continue to linger in the background,” said Koji Fukaya, president at FPG Securities in Tokyo. In commodities, crude oil prices extended gains, lifted by a drop in U.S. drilling activity as well as by expectations that the United States could re-introduce sanctions against Iran. U.S. drillers cut seven oil rigs in the week to March 29, bringing the total count down to 797. It was the first time in three weeks that the rig-count fell. U.S. crude futures rose 0.3 percent to $65.14 a barrel and Brent advanced 0.5 percent to $69.67 a barrel. “Investors took their cue from falling U.S drilling counts,” Wang Xiao, head of crude oil research with Guotai Junan Futures said. “But increasing trade friction between China and U.S. is likely to rock global markets and tarnish bullish sentiment in crude oil markets.” US Event Calendar 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 55.7, prior 55.7 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.45%, prior 0.0% 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 60, prior 60.8;

02 апреля, 10:21

Власть и бизнес: как Дональд Трамп пытается усидеть на всех стульях

Forbes выяснил, как президент США использует должность ради извлечения выгоды для бизнеса. Оказывается, ему удается даже сдавать недвижимость в аренду самому себе, а реальный конфликт интересов Трампа связан с Китаем, а вовсе не с Россией

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30 марта, 11:36

Годовая чистая прибыль Bank of China выросла на 4,8% г/г

В четверг, 29 марта, китайский кредитор Bank of China отчитался о 4,8%-ном повышении годовой прибыли благодаря заметному росту процентных доходов. Так, по итогам 2017 года, чистая прибыль банка увеличилась с 164,1 млрд юаней годом ранее до 172,4 млрд юаней ($27,4 млрд). При этом чистый процентный доход расширился на 10,6% г/г до 338,39 млрд юаней. Кредитор также сообщил, что объем проблемных кредитов по данным на конец 2017 года составил около 158,47 млрд юаней, что эквивалентно 1,45% от общего размера кредитного портфеля.

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30 марта, 11:18

Годовая чистая прибыль Bank of China выросла на 4,8% г/г

В четверг, 29 марта, китайский кредитор Bank of China отчитался о 4,8%-ном повышении годовой прибыли благодаря заметному росту процентных доходов. Так, по итогам 2017 года, чистая прибыль банка увеличилась с 164,1 млрд юаней годом ранее до 172,4 млрд юаней ($27,4 млрд). При этом чистый процентный доход расширился на 10,6% г/г до 338,39 млрд юаней. Кредитор также сообщил, что объем проблемных кредитов по данным на конец 2017 года составил около 158,47 млрд юаней, что эквивалентно 1,45% от общего размера кредитного портфеля.

30 марта, 11:17

Крупные банки Китая сократили долю "плохих" долгов

Шесть крупных китайских банков в прошлом году сократили соотношение неработающих кредитов к общему объему кредитов по сравнению с предыдущим годом, сообщает Bloomberg.

30 марта, 11:17

Крупные банки Китая сократили долю "плохих" долгов

Шесть крупных китайских банков в прошлом году сократили соотношение неработающих кредитов к общему объему кредитов по сравнению с предыдущим годом, сообщает Bloomberg.

29 марта, 19:01

PBOC to clean up various virtual currencies in 2018

China’s central bank said it would clean up various sorts of virtual currencies in 2018, its latest effort to step up financial supervision.

29 марта, 19:01

PBOC to clean up various virtual currencies in 2018

CHINA’S central bank said it would clean up various sorts of virtual currencies in 2018, its latest effort to step up financial supervision. Last September, Chinese authorities including the People’s

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29 марта, 16:31

BTCUSD and LTCUSD Analysis – March 29, 2018

The total market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies dropped below $282bn, as broad-based selling saw major digital currencies reach multi-month lows. The vice governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has commented that they will launch a crackdown on cryptocurrencies this year. Also, it is reported that two Japanese cryptocurrency exchanges are set to cease operating, amid growing scrutiny from regulators after a $500 million theft. Bitcoin is trading below $8000 and Ethereum below $500. Moreover, confidence was dented earlier this week as payment processor LitePay ceased operations, with Litecoin creator Charlie Lee having to apologise and vowing to “do better due diligence in the future”. Litecoin has since declined to $120. BTCUSD On the daily chart, BTCUSD is displaying a “death cross”, where the 50MA crosses below the 200MA, which indicates a long-term bear market going forward. However, it should be noted that two out of three previous “death cross” events did not result in a major sell-off. The recent rally in Bitcoin was rejected at the 200MA and the decline is now testing the month low and trend line support at 7300. A break will open the way to further declines towards the February lows of 6000 and then 5000. A reversal and break above the descending trend line and 200MA near 9300 will be required for the picture to turn bullish, with upside resistance at 11700. LTCUSD On the daily chart, Litecoin has decisively broken below the 200MA and is due to test the February lows of 106. A break could open the way to a test of the support trend line at 95, followed by 85 and then the 2016 lows at 50. However, a bullish reversal above 140 will find resistance at the descending trend line near 160. A breakout above the descending trend line is needed for the outlook to turn bullish.

28 марта, 21:00

Российские торговые площадки большую часть дня провели в "боковике"

После нескольких довольно бурных дней на западных торговых площадках, сегодня большинство зарубежных инвесторов взяло передышку. По крайней мере, былого темперамента не наблюдалось, а изменения биржевых индексов были довольно спокойными и не слишком значительными. Из происходившего на Востоке от нас стоит, пожалуй, выделить информацию о китайской банковской системе. Крупнейшие кредитные учреждения Поднебесной зафиксировали наилучшие годовые финансовые результаты за последние три года благодаря политике правительства по борьбе с теневой экономикой. Так, по итогам 2017 года суммарная чистая прибыль кредиторов Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Construction Bank (CCB) и Agricultural Bank of China составила 724 млрд юаней (115,31 млрд. долл.), что на 4,1% выше результата 2016 года. При этом величина прибыли всех трех банков по отдельности стала максимальной с 2015 года.

28 марта, 15:59

Годовая прибыль крупнейших банков Китая оказалась максимальной за последние три года

Крупнейшие банки Китая зафиксировали наилучшие годовые финансовые результаты за последние три года благодаря политике правительства по борьбе с теневой экономикой. Так, по итогам 2017 года суммарная чистая прибыль кредиторов Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Construction Bank (CCB) и Agricultural Bank of China составила 724 млрд юаней ($115,31 млрд), что на 4,1% выше результата 2016 года. Стоит отметить, что величина прибыли всех трех банков по отдельности стала максимальной с 2015 года. Сообщается также, что коэффициент просроченной задолженности ICBC в отчетном периоде составил 1,55% по сравнению с 1,62% годом ранее, а аналогичные показатели у CCB и AgBank сократились с 1,52% до 1,49% и с 2,37% до 1,81% соответственно. Стоит отметить, что еще два крупных представителя отрасли - Bank of China и Bank of Communications представят финансовые результаты на текущей неделе, и по оценкам аналитиков, они также оказались довольно успешными.

28 марта, 15:45

Годовая прибыль крупнейших банков Китая оказалась максимальной за последние три года

Крупнейшие банки Китая зафиксировали наилучшие годовые финансовые результаты за последние три года благодаря политике правительства по борьбе с теневой экономикой. Так, по итогам 2017 года суммарная чистая прибыль кредиторов Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Construction Bank (CCB) и Agricultural Bank of China составила 724 млрд юаней ($115,31 млрд), что на 4,1% выше результата 2016 года. Стоит отметить, что величина прибыли всех трех банков по отдельности стала максимальной с 2015 года. Сообщается также, что коэффициент просроченной задолженности ICBC в отчетном периоде составил 1,55% по сравнению с 1,62% годом ранее, а аналогичные показатели у CCB и AgBank сократились с 1,52% до 1,49% и с 2,37% до 1,81% соответственно. Стоит отметить, что еще два крупных представителя отрасли - Bank of China и Bank of Communications представят финансовые результаты на текущей неделе, и по оценкам аналитиков, они также оказались довольно успешными.

28 марта, 13:22

Крупнейшие банки Китая резко увеличили прибыль

Крупнейшие банки Китая сообщают о максимальном росте прибыли за три года благодаря повышению чистой процентной маржи. Меры Пекина против теневого финансирования, как ожидается, будет способствовать дальнейшему восстановлению в этом году, пишет Reuters.

28 марта, 13:22

Крупнейшие банки Китая резко увеличили прибыль

Крупнейшие банки Китая сообщают о максимальном росте прибыли за три года благодаря повышению чистой процентной маржи. Меры Пекина против теневого финансирования, как ожидается, будет способствовать дальнейшему восстановлению в этом году, пишет Reuters.

27 марта, 19:01

ICBC, AgBank see profits rebound

TWO of China’s big state-owned banks said yesterday their profits rebounded in 2017 after a pair of moribund years thanks to an accelerating domestic economy, and analysts expect further gains as a government

27 марта, 16:16

U.S. Exchange Rate may Become the Focus of Trade Wars

Markets are afraid that trade tariffs may shatter existing world trade rules, with finance ministers and central bank heads in efforts to formulate new rules. Previous events as well as the current situation suggest the possibility of a decision that will revolve around attempts to weaken the U.S. currency. During the last 35 years, there have been several periods during which the United States actively struggled with trade deficit. In the 1980s, the Plaza Accord occurred as a most notable event, an agreement on coordinated actions in attempt to weaken the dollar. In the early 2000s, the dollar came under pressure as the Fed kept interest rates much lower than monetary policy rules suggested. At the time, however, world politics saw U.S. securities in the reserves of the central banks of Emerging Markets, which allowed the dollar to maintain an important reserve currency status in spite of the weakening exchange rate. The graph of the dollar index to the major trading partner currencies gives a clear picture of reversals. The early 1980s rally saw the index rise from 93 to 144 points (up 155%) in approximately 5 years, before collapsing to 88 in just 3 years. Subsequently, between 1988-1995, the dollar experienced a less volatile decline, maintaining its downward trend nonetheless. Between 1995-2002, the currency strengthened to trading partner currencies, largely due to the Asian crisis and a mistrust against the euro. With the Fed keeping rates lower than expected, the dollar experienced further decline, with a period of two years wiping out 30% of its value and the USD eventually returning to levels seen in 1995. Following that, and between 2004 and 2011, the dollar kept registering new lows, with the index falling to 70. Should expectations materialise, the decline experienced by the dollar last year and the beginning of trade negotiations between finance ministers and heads of central banks would seem to be related. One of the main side effects of such a policy may be a potential drop of the dollar over the next 2 years from its current level at 86 to below 70 USDX. What’s also notable is that the above may be followed by the U.S. currency experiencing further decline in the years to come, albeit less actively, with the possibility that the index falls down to 60, that is, a 30% decline from current levels. Should this take place, the single currency could grow to 1.78, while USDJPY could fall to 73. Most probably, the main beneficiary of the potential USD decline will be the Chinese yuan. It would not be hard to imagine the U.S. authorities adding pressure on China to allow its currency to grow. The Central Bank of China has been trying for many years to keep the RMB exchange rate near the dollar, which periodically provokes discontent in the U.S. Should the Chinese yuan come into focus, the dollar would most likely move less against other currencies than previously.

27 марта, 14:15

Bank of China инвестирует $4,5 млрд в развитие зимних видов спорта в Китае

Увеличение финансирования связано с проведением зимних Олимпийских игр в Пекине в 2022 году

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26 марта, 13:45

S&P Futures Soar, Global Stocks Rebound As Trade War "Perfect Storm" Fears Fade

It seems that "Black Monday" has been averted, with global risk sentiment making a full reversal to start the week, and the precipitous selloff from Thursday and (Black) Friday turning into a furious rally on Monday, starting in Asian markets and proceeding to Europe and US stock futures, which are up 1.4%, and back over the key 2,610 support level. In other words, once again the 200DMA at 2,585 has proven a key support for the S&P500. “It was the week when one bad thing led to another, it was a perfect storm,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Weeden Capital Management. “You took the starch out of the FANGs, you saw banks, industrials, discretionary companies reacting to negative news. What investors are not pricing in is a potential impact on companies’ profit margins." On Monday, the perfect storm had faded, although it remained to be seen if this was just the eye of the hurricane. What prompted the surge: the most commonly cited reason is that jitters over brewing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have again eased, after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Fox News that he’s "cautiously hopeful" the U.S. can reach a trade  deal with China that will avert the need for Trump to impose up to $60BN in tariffs on China - of course, what else would he say? There was also renewed optimism that the United States and China are set to begin negotiations on trade, following reports in both the FT and WSJ, further easing fears about a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. MSCI’s world equity index turned positive on the day, having earlier hit its lowest level since February 9, after a Wall Street Journal report that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was considering a visit to Beijing to begin negotiations. “I don’t think that long-term the tariffs will continue to be enforced,” Scot Lance, managing director at California-based Titus Wealth Management, said by phone. “They’ll pull them off the table at some point, I just don’t know if that will be a week, a month, a quarter? Could it last a whole year? I don’t necessarily think it’ll last for a long time.” All of the uncertainty has kept the once-reliable dip buyers on the sidelines this time. Consider: as Bloomberg notes, the S&P 500 has closed lower than the midpoint of its daily range for 10 straight days, the longest stretch since at least 1982. That suggests traders are finding reasons to dump shares in the afternoon rather than buy dips. That sentiment may have reversed this morning, however: "It appears that the market is not expecting a full-blown trade war, and a currency war for competitive advantage is not a likely option at this moment," said Mizuho's Ken Cheung, who will clearly retract and say the opposite should futures reverse their gain and slump. "Risk sentiment, as being reflected by Asian equities, and further responses from the Chinese authorities to the trade war will drive the market." Also overnight, as we reported previously, the U.S. and South Korea reached an agreement on revising their trade deal, with South Korea avoiding steel tariff, which was also to be expected, as the target of Trump's trade war - it has become especially obvious by now - is not Europe, and not all of Asia, but simply China. As a result, S&P futures are sharply higher in early trade, and the S&P trying to undo all of its 2.1% losses from Friday, although it may have a harder time to offset last week's 6% loss, which was the biggest weekly drop since early 2016. European shares headed for their first gain in four days as investors assess the latest developments in a trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.  European bourses are higher across the board (Eurostoxx +0.4%) with the exception of the FTSE MIB (-0.3%), shrugging off Friday's negative sentiment. Sectors are making broad gains, healthcare is outperforming after a positive drug update from Roche (+1.6%) and energy is underpinned despite slightly softer oil prices. Asian markets also stabilized, with the ASX 200 down -0.5% led lower by its largest-weighted financials sector after the harsher losses seen in its US counterparts, while the Nikkei 225 fell to a near 6-month low, before staging a late rally back into positive territory, closing 0.6% higher after dropping -1.3%. Elsewhere, Shanghai the Shanghai Composite dropped -0.6%, weighed by trade tensions and rising Chinese money market rates (HKD 12-month HIBOR at 9-year high), while the KOSPI (+0.8%) bucked the trend after news that US and South Korea agreed in principal to a revised FTA and with South Korea to be exempted from US tariffs. In macro and FX, the risk on sentiment sent the yen sliding from a 16-month high as calm returned, if only for the time being, to world markets amid signs U.S.-China trade frictions may be easing.  The USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 105.10 after earlier falling to 104.56, lowest since November 2016.  "Risk aversion seems to have come a full circle with the first reaction to U.S.-China trade tensions last week, and it may be difficult to buy up the yen further without additional negative factors,” said Koji Fukaya, CEO at FPG Securities. On the other side, Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank in Tokyo said that “markets are now in the phase of waiting for Nikkei stock average to fall below 20,000 and USD/JPY to drop towards 100, so it’s meaningless to give specific projections before those levels." Meanwhile, bond markets this week will see another deluge of issuance, and bond traders will be tested this week as the Treasury will auction about $294 billion of bills and notes, the largest slate of supply ever. China last week did not rule out scaling back its purchases of U.S. debt as part of its response to proposed tariffs. The 10-year yield held near 2.84%. Concerns over the formation of a new anti-establishment government in Italy weighed on Southern European debt on Monday, though this was counterbalanced to an extent by a ratings upgrade for Spain late on Friday. Italian bonds underperformed, with 10-year yields rising as much as 4.5 basis points in early trade, on further signs the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the anti-migrant League might explore an alliance to form a government. But the euro was still on a positive trajectory, hitting a 10-day high of $1.2393 at one stage. In commodities, international Brent crude futures opened above $70 per barrel for the first time since January but the gains could not be sustained as the ongoing trade disputes weighed on global markets. Spot gold had hit five-week highs early but turned negative as the session wore on and was marginally lower on the day at $1,345. In M&A, Smurfit Kappa rejected International Paper’s revised takeover bid, while the U.K.’s JD Sports Fashion agreed to buy Finish Line in a $558 million deal. Red Hat and Paychex are among companies reporting earnings today. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European bourses shrug off trade concerns with China looking to step up efforts in trade negotiations with the US A softer USD has seen EUR/USD and GBP/USD reclaim 1.2400 and 1.4200 to the upside respectively Looking ahead, highlights include ECB’s Weidmann, Fed’s Dudley and Mester Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.35% to 2,632.50 MSCI Asia Pac up 0.4% to 172.60 MSCI Asia Pac ex Japan up 0.5% to 567.49 Nikkei up 0.7% to 20,766.10 Topix up 0.4% to 1,671.32 Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 30,548.77 Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,133.72 Sensex up 1% to 32,924.47 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5,790.47 Kospi up 0.8% to 2,437.08 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 367.17 German 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.536% Euro up 0.3% to $1.2388 Italian 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 1.622% Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 1.259% Brent Futures down 0.2% to $70.30/bbl Gold spot little changed at $1,347.94 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 89.28 Top Overnight News China and the U.S. are said to quietly have started negotiating to improve U.S. access to Chinese markets, the WSJ reported, with talks being led by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s top economic aide, Liu He, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer Mnuchin says he is ‘hopeful’ that a truce can be reached with China on trade; WSJ reports that China and U.S. quietly started negotiating to improve U.S. access to Chinese markets, according to sources China is conducting research on second and third lists of U.S. imports subject to the tariffs, China Daily reports; likely to cover airplanes, computer chips and tourism industry SF Fed’s Williams is the leading candidate to become next president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, WSJ reports, citing sources Italy’s Northern League leader Salvini says that he’s ready to start govt. talks with everyone including Five Star Trump is preparing to expel dozens of Russian diplomats from the U.S. in response to the nerve-agent poisoning of a former Russian spy in the U.K; likely to be announced today according to people familiar Guo Shuqing, a high-profile banking regulator and ally of Jinping in cleaning up the financial system, is said to have been appointed as Communist Party secretary of the People’s Bank of China China launched its first ever crude-futures contract as the world’s biggest oil buyer seeks to wield greater power over pricing and challenge benchmarks in the U.S. and Europe New Zealand’s central bank agreed to target maximum employment alongside price stability in anticipation of a dual mandate being enshrined in law later this year League leader Matteo Salvini said he would start talks with Luigi Di Maio of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and other party leaders on forming Italy’s next government, with pension reform, tax cuts and curbs on immigration as his priorities U.S. President Donald Trump is poised to take his most aggressive actions yet against Russia on Monday, when he’s likely to announce the expulsion of dozens of diplomats in response to the nerve-gas attack on a former Russian spy living in the U.K. Asian stocks began the week mostly negative as trade concerns remained at the forefront of market focus and following last week’s losses on Wall St where stocks posted their worst weekly performance in over 2 years and the DJIA slipped into correction territory. ASX 200 (-0.5%) was negative with the index led lower by its largest-weighted financials sector after the harsher losses seen in its US counterparts, while Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) fell to a near 6-month low, before staging a late rally back into positive territory. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) was weighed by trade tensions and rising Chinese money market rates (HKD 12-month HIBOR at 9-year high), while KOSPI (+0.8%) bucked the trend after news that US and South Korea agreed in principal to a revised FTA and with South Korea to be exempted from US tariffs. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued as prices failed to benefit from a risk-averse tone with demand dampened amid a lack of Rinban announcement by the BoJ, while a tier-1 US firm was said to be cautious on 2yr JGBs amid expectations for an increase in auction supply.  Top Asian News The Builder of One of the World’s Largest Airports Revives IPO TPG Said to Near Deal for $1.2 Billion Indian Hospital Chain In Xi’s China Even the Central Bank Has a Party Boss at the Helm Thailand’s Red Bull Rival Slumps From Top to Bottom of World European equities are higher across the board (Eurostoxx +0.3%) with the exception of the FTSE MIB (-0.3%), shrugging off the negative sentiment on Wall Street and Asia dictated by looming trade disputes between China and the US. Sectors are making broad gains, healthcare is outperforming after a positive drug update from Roche (+1.6%) and energy is underpinned despite slightly softer oil prices. In terms of individual movers, Fresnillo (+5.5%) is the outperformer in the FTSE100 after an upgrade from Goldman Sachs whereas Smurfit Kappa (-4.3%) is the laggard following its refusal of the takeover offer from International Paper. Top European News Catalan Separatists Face Reality Check After Puigdemont Detained Givaudan Taps Organic Food Trend With $1.6 Billion Naturex Deal Murray & Roberts Jumps by Record on Unsolicited Takeover Bid In FX, Nzd/Usd nudging back up towards the 0.7300 level on a surprise NZ trade surplus and broader uptick in risk sentiment overnight as global trade war fears wane somewhat, with market contacts also reporting some decent buy orders in Nzd/Jpy as Usd/Jpy bounces off new recent lows not far off 104.50 to just over 105.00. Note, however, the headline pair has been capped amidst hefty option expiry interest at the big figure today and on Tuesday (around 2.5 bn in total). Aud/Usd is back above 0.7700 and approaching 0.7750 despite a couple of short trades of the week via crosses (vs Jpy and Cad), while Cable has breached the 1.4200 level on a mixture of hawkish BoE impulses and Brexit transition deal optimism. On that note, contacts also note some stopsales in Eur/Gbp from circa 0.8730 to 0.8723, which is the low of the range up to 0.8743. Nevertheless, Eur/Usd remains firm and has popped above 1.2400 on extended gains from trend-line support (1.2349) and its 30 DMA (1.2337). Usd/Cad looking at bids near and under 1.2850 amidst a broadly soft Greenback as the DXY remains sub-89.500 and trade/protectionism concerns continue to weigh. In commodities, oil futures are modestly lower, albeit remaining in close proximity to recent highs, as price action is centred around China with WTI crude futures failing to hold above USD 66/bbl with demand sapped as the debut of  CNY-denominated oil futures contracts stole the limelight and rose 6% in early trade. In the metals bloc, gold is range-bound at around 5-week highs as a subdued greenback and risk-averse tone kept the safe-haven afloat, while copper weakened alongside losses in Chinese metals prices in which Shanghai Rebar dropped to its lowest since July.   US Event Calendar 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.2, prior 0.1 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 33.5, prior 37.2 12:30pm: Fed’s Dudley Speaks on the Future of Financial Regulation 4:30pm: Fed’s Mester Speaks on Monetary Policy 7:10pm: Fed’s Quarles to Speak in Atlanta DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Well that was a week that most won’t forget in a hurry. For anyone that was lucky enough to escape to a desert island last week, switched your phone off and only returned this morning then this is a 125-word summary of what you’ve missed: The seeds for the opening salvo of a trade war appear to have now been sown with President Trump and China trading blows, and it feels like it’s only the start with China signaling a willingness to go toe-to-toe. This transpired in a week in which the Fed showed that it remained committed to staying on a gradual rate hike course, concerns that global growth could be starting to roll over following the latest flash PMIs, the centre of the bull market – the tech sector – roiled by data leakage accusations at the hands of Facebook, and finally the White House revolving door continuing with the appointment of John Bolton – a man who had strongly supported an invasion of Iraq - as the national security advisor. That perfect storm of events resulted in some of the worst weeks for risk assets in years. Using the S&P 500 as an example, the index fell -5.95% last week, the biggest weekly decline since January 2016. Every sector closed lower so there was nowhere to hide although tech fell a fairly staggering -7.88%. The broader index is now easily in the red again for the year (-3.19%) and it also means that we have seen three separate 5% dips for the index in the last two months. What perhaps stood out the most about the price action last week was that any buy the dip mentality appeared to just disappear. In fact, that has been the case for the last two weeks with the S&P closing lower than the midpoint of its intraday range every single day. That’s the longest streak since at least 1982. Across other markets, the Nasdaq 100 – which bore the brunt of the Facebook news - fell -7.29% and the most since August 2015. The export heavy Nikkei and DAX fell -4.88% and -4.06% respectively. The Shanghai Comp was down -3.58%. Indeed, it’s now difficult to find a market which is positive YTD, although the FTSE MIB is one which can still just claim that. Meanwhile, it might not have been the volatility spike of early February but the VIX still rose over  9pts last week and closed just below 25 on Friday which is the highest since February 13th. Remember that the VIX average through the whole of 2017 was about 11. Elsewhere, credit certainly wasn’t immune. Moves for CDS indices are complicated by the rolls however CDX IG was still 15bps wider last week and is now at the widest since December 2016, while iTraxx Main and Crossover were 12bps and 41bps wider last week, respectively. Cash European and US  high yield spreads were 21bps and 14bps wider. Given all the above, you might have thought that Treasury yields would be markedly lower. However, 10y yields were just 3bps lower last week having closed at 2.814%, and in fact they have closed with a 2.8% handle for 21 straight days which is fairly remarkable all things considered. Bunds were ‘only’ 4bps lower last week however it’s worth noting that they are now 24bps off their YTD yield highs. Unsurprisingly, the weekend news flow is filled with reaction to last week’s trade war developments. China’s Vice Premier Liu He, following a phone call with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, said that “China is prepared and has the ability to defend its national interests”. China has also suggested that it may issue an official complaint to the WTO about Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, with China not exempt from the levies. Remember that Trump has  already threatened to remove the US from the WTO. Interestingly, Mnuchin has also been reported as saying that he is hopeful that the US and China can come to an agreement that will “forestall the need to impose the tariff’s that Trump has ordered on at least $50bn of goods” according to Bloomberg. The article quotes an interview Mnuchin had with Fox News, with the Treasury Secretary also quoted as saying that the US will proceed with the tariffs “unless we have an acceptable agreement that the President signs off on”. So perhaps some signs of a softening stance. This morning, the US and South Korea have reached an agreement on the principles of amending their bilateral trade deal, which includes the US permanently exempting South Korea from the steel tariffs. In return, South Korea will set quotas for steel exports to the US and will be more flexible on imposing safety / environment regulations on US made cars. In Asia, the Kospi is up +0.34% while other bourses have pared back steeper losses with the Nikkei (-0.33%), Hang Seng (-0.57%), ASX 200 (-0.45%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.64%) all down as we type. There’s better news for US equity futures with the S&P 500 currently up +0.55%, while Treasury yields are also up close to 2bps. There’s also been some non-tariff talk over the weekend with the newly appointed PBOC Governor Yi noting that China has three major tasks for the financial system – “i) implement prudent monetary policy, ii) push forward financial reforms and opening up and iii) win the battle against financial risks”. He added that the “opening up of the financial sector must be accompanied by the development of financial regulations” and it will proceed in coordination with reforms in China’s FX rate mechanism and capital account convertibility. Elsewhere, the WSJ has reported John Williams is the front runner to succeed William Dudley as the Head of the NY Fed. So, while it’s hard to see anything other than trade war developments really dominating markets this week, it’s worth noting that we do also have some inflation data due out in the holiday-shortened four days ahead. Specifically, Thursday’s PCE report in the US is scheduled. In terms of what to expect, the consensus is for a +0.2% mom core and deflator reading for February. The former would imply a jump of one-tenth in the annual rate to +1.6% yoy. Our economists also expect a +0.2% core print and they note that the report should take on a little more focus given the recent upgrade in the Fed’s forecast to above 2% core PCE for 2019. As a reminder too, the March data is when we see the wireless services print annualized which should add about 20bps and 10bps to the annual core CPI and PCE prints, respectively. Away from that we also have some flash March CPI data due in Europe this week with Germany on Thursday and France and Italy both reporting on Friday. Other than that, there is a decent flow of Fedspeak this week which if anything could help shape where FOMC participants’ median dots are now. Dudley (neutral) and Mester (hawk) kick things off today, followed by Quarles (neutral) and Bostic (neutral) on Tuesday, Bostic again on Wednesday and then Harker (dove) on Thursday. So expect the market to be looking out for where their rate expectations lie. Quickly recapping Friday, in terms of central bankers speak, the Fed’s Bostic and Kaplan both noted their base case was three rate hikes for this year (i.e. 2 more), but are “open minded and we’ll see how the year unfolds”. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Kashkari noted he supports the recent rate hike because it “represented continuity” at Powell’s first meeting, but added that the data does not support a rate hike at this point. In the UK, BOE’s Vlieghe noted “the current central outlook is….consistent with one or two 25bp rate increase per year over the forecast period”. Datawise, in the US, the February core durable goods orders (+1.2% mom vs. +0.5% expected) and core capital goods orders (+1.8% mom vs. +0.9% expected) were both above consensus. The February new home sales print fell -0.6% mom to 618k (vs. 620k expected) while the final reading for France’s 4Q wages growth was slightly higher at +0.2% qoq (vs. +0.1% expected).

03 марта 2016, 21:04

Bank of Сhina предоставит «Газпрому» рекордный кредит: €2 млрд на 5 лет

Гости: замдиректор Института Дальнего Востока РАН Андрей Островский; политолог Дмитрий Орешкин; зампред комитета Госдумы по конституционному законодательству и госстроительству Вадим Соловьёв. Подпишитесь на канал РБК: http://www.youtube.com/user/tvrbcnews?sub_confirmation=1 ------------------------ Получайте новости РБК в социальных сетях: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rbc.ru Twitter: https://twitter.com/ru_rbc ВКонтакте: https://vk.com/rbc Одноклассники: http://ok.ru/rbc

03 марта 2016, 21:04

Bank of Сhina предоставит «Газпрому» рекордный кредит: €2 млрд на 5 лет

Гости: замдиректор Института Дальнего Востока РАН Андрей Островский; политолог Дмитрий Орешкин; зампред комитета Госдумы по конституционному законодательству и госстроительству Вадим Соловьёв. Подпишитесь на канал РБК: http://www.youtube.com/user/tvrbcnews?sub_confirmation=1 ------------------------ Получайте новости РБК в социальных сетях: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rbc.ru Twitter: https://twitter.com/ru_rbc ВКонтакте: https://vk.com/rbc Одноклассники: http://ok.ru/rbc

03 ноября 2015, 23:05

Регуляторы обновили список системно значимых банков

Совет по финансовой стабильности и Базельский комитет по финансовому надзору обновили список из 30 наиболее значимых банков в финансовой системе мировой экономики.

22 сентября 2014, 17:22

IPO китайской Alibaba установило мировой рекорд

Первичное публичное размещение акций (IPO) китайской Alibaba официально стало крупнейшим в истории, после того как банки-организаторы исполнили опцион «green shoe» – право разместить дополнительные акции в условиях высокого спроса. Андеррайтеры IPO (35 банков) продали 48 млн акций, исполнив опцион в полном объеме, сообщила компания в пресс-релизе. В результате сумма размещения увеличилась на 15% – до $25 млрд – и на те же 15% увеличились комиссионные банков. Предыдущий мировой рекорд принадлежал также китайскому эмитенту: в 2010 году Agricultural Bank of China провел IPO на $22,1 млрд (с учетом опциона). Гигант электронной коммерции Alibaba разместился в Нью-Йорке в минувшую пятницу: компания и акционеры продали 320 млн бумаг (около 13% уставного капитала) по $68 за штуку. Весь бизнес был оценен в $168 млрд. Дебют Alibaba на Нью-йоркской фондовой бирже, как и ожидалось, оказался сверхудачным: в первый день акции подорожали на 38% (до $93,9), а рыночная капитализация достигла $231 млрд. Ни одна компания до этого не росла так сильно в первый день торгов после IPO размером от $10 млрд, проверил Bloomberg. Банки-андеррайтеры могли реализовать опцион до 15 октября по цене размещения ($68 за акцию). На практике банки выкупают бумаги у эмитента с небольшой скидкой к цене IPO, зарабатывая на этой разнице. В сделке Alibaba скидки и комиссионные андеррайтерам составили 1,2% от суммы размещения, раскрыла компания в понедельник в финальной версии проспекта IPO. Это означает, что банки заработали $300 млн. В размещении участвовало 35 банков, а ключевую роль играли шесть – Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase и Morgan Stanley (совместные букраннеры). К рекордному IPO хотели быть причастны абсолютно все ведущие инвестбанки, но трем – Bank of America, UBS и Barclays – пришлось уйти в сторону: ранее в этом году они вели IPO китайского ретейлера JD.com (конкурента Alibaba), получился конфликт интересов. Из 48 млн доразмещенных акций 26,1 млн пришлись на долю самой Alibaba, 18,3 млн – на долю американской Yahoo. Основатель Alibaba, председатель совета директоров Джек Ма дополнительно реализовал 2,7 млн бумаг, а вице-председатель Джозеф Тсаи – 903 тыс. Таким образом, Yahoo увеличила свою выручку от продажи акций Alibaba в рамках IPO до $9,5 млрд, а Джек Ма – до $1 млрд. Alibaba установила не только рекорд по размеру IPO, но и по стоимости компании на IPO, отмечает Dealogic. Оценка Alibaba с учетом опциона «green shoe» составила $169,4 млрд, прежний рекорд удерживал все тот же Agricultural Bank of China с капитализацией $133,4 млрд на IPO. Акции Alibaba на NYSE в понедельник вечером торговались в минусе после впечатляющего пятничного роста. По состоянию на 19:45 мск бумаги подешевели на 4,1% (до $90). Alibaba в цифрах (2013 год): Годовой оборот - $296 млрд Число покупателей - 279 млн человек Число продавцов - 8,5 млн человек Число заказов - 14,5 млрд заказов Иван Ткачев

24 января 2014, 08:14

Под чьим контролем глобальная фин.система?

Не стоит лишний раз теребить рану на Украине, по крайней мере, до поступления новых разведданных. Нефин.сектор достаточно рассмотрел, но что там с банками? Активы публичных банков и инвестиционных фондов планеты (2110 фин.организации) составляют по оценочным данным около 109.2 трлн долл, из которых 90 трлн (82%) приходится на первые 150 банка. 50 самых крупных фин.организаций держат 67 трлн, а первые 25 почти 50 трлн по данным за 2012 год. Здесь не учитываются страховые, пенсионные, ипотечные, взаимные, денежные, хэдж фонды и гос.фонды. И еще. Здесь не учитываются деривативы и забалансовые активы коммерческих банков, что весьма мощно развито в США. Только банки и инвест.банки по данным из корп.отчетов. Вот собственно под чьим контролем глобальная фин.система - крупнейшие банки и инвестфонды с активами свыше 500 млрд на 3 квартал 2013.  Самый крупный банк в мире находится в Китае - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China – уже более 3 трлн долларов активов. Для сравнения наш мега монстр Сбер всего 515 млрд долларов и в конце списка. Удивляет нашествие китайских банков? Ну-ну ) Сейчас 4 китайских банка превзошли таких гигантов, как Citi и Bank of America. Получается, что всего 1% публичных банков держит до половины всех активов глобальной фин.системы. Сейчас в мире 242 банка и инвест.фонда с активами более 50 млрд, 145 с активами более 100 млрд, всего 50 с активами более 500 млрд и 25 банков с активами свыше 1 трлн. Из этих 109 трлн около 62 трлн сосредоточено в 5 странах (США, Китай, Япония, Англия и Франция).  Мои расчеты по США - 16.6 трлн (624 организации) по всем и 12.3 трлн только по коммерческим банкам отчасти совпадают с расчетами ФРС из Z1 http://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/FOF/Guide/P_76_coded.pdf Однако, следует понимать, что говоря о США в расчетах я имею в виду банки, имеющие американскую нац.принадлежность, а сами эти активы распределены по всему миру в различных фин.инструментах, т.е. далеко не только в США. Но из этого выходит, что американские банки не столь огромные по сравнению с тем, насколько выросли китайские? На истории это смотрится еще более невероятно.  В 2007 китайские банки имели немногим более 4 трлн активов и выросли с тех пор в 2.5 раза(!) В 2009 обогнали французские и английские, в прошлом году превзошли японские и в этом году обойдут американские! Всего за один год китайские банки «рожают» больше активов, чем все развитые страны вместе взятые. Активы банков БРИК выросли с 6 трлн в 2007 до 17 трлн в 2013 (!) 11 трлн за 6 лет! Активы Франции, Англии, Германии, Испании, Италии, Швейцарии, Швеции, Нидерландов, Дании, Австрии, Норвегии, Греции, Португалии и Бельгии в совокупности в 2007 были 32.7 трлн долл, а в 2013 32.2 трлн, т.е. упали на пол триллиона. В таблице выборка по ТОП 500 мировых банков и инвест.банков для 30 крупнейших стран.  Но это были данные в долларах, где динамика может искажаться из-за валютного курса. Теперь в нац.валюте, процентное отношение к 2007.  Из 30 крупнейших стран наибольший процентный прирост по отношению к 2007 по настоящий момент в России – в 3.5 раза активы выросли, потом Индия (в 3 раза), в 2.8 раза увеличились активы в Турции, в 2.6 раза – Бразилия и в 2.5 раза у китайских банков. Все в нац.валюте. Сократились в Германии (-3%), Нидерланды (-14%), Бельгия (-30%) Швейцария (-35%). Интересно, что активы греческих банков выросли во многом из-за переоценки активов по причине мощного роста облигаций в 2013 и рекапитализации. Рост активов в США и Японии почти полностью за счет ФРС и Банк Японии, но причем рост активов значительно меньше, чем влили денег. Куда ушли деньги от QE – более 5 трлн, которые раздали банкам? А черт его знает. Основной поток QE ушел в различные забалансовые схемы через ряд жульнических махинаций. Часть на компенсацию убытков, часть на выкуп акций, которые прямым образом не отобразили в балансах. Много мути. ДОП. Из расчета в таблицах выпала Австралия, Ирландия и Южная Африка. Как нибудь потом добавлю. Первичные данные из Eikon