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20 апреля, 13:53

Tower residents spared £2m bill to replace Grenfell-style cladding

Barratt’s surprise offer saves leaseholders from ruinous cost of making Croydon complex safe Residents of a private housing complex in Croydon clad in similar flammable panels to Grenfell Tower have been told they will not have to pay £2m to make their home safe, after the company that built the block said it would meet the costs instead.Barratt Homes has indicated it will pay to have the panels of the Citiscape block removed and fund the cost of 24-hour fire wardens, saving residents £31,300 per flat. Continue reading...

27 февраля, 15:09

Dollar Rises, Futures Slide Ahead Of Powell Testimony

After euphoric premarket spikes for two consecutive days in global stocks, this morning S&P futures point to a modestly lower open, while trading in Asia is mixed and Europe is down modestly. Following yesterday's closing burst in the S&P500, which was reminiscent of the late January meltup, and which resulted in the February correction, S&P futures were down 7 points, trading near sessions lows, if in a modest range after yesterday's 33 point move higher in the cash index. The dollar, like S&P futures, was stuck in narrow ranges as investors await Jerome Powell’s first public comments in the role of Federal Reserve chairman on Tuesday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index recouped earlier losses, while the Treasury 10-year yield held steady at 2.86% after declining 9bps in the past three days. As previewed yesterday, Fed Chair Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday at 1030am ET (testimony released at 830am ET) to discuss the Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report and the state of the economy. Investors will look for any clues on whether four 25bps rate hikes in 2018 are likely. Back in his testimony ahead of getting confirmed as Fed Chair, Powell said that risks to the economy appeared to be balanced The Fed Chairman should stick to the current forecast of three hikes this year as he will be cautious not to shake up expectations until the FOMC comes up with its updated projections in March, Credit Agricole strategists including David Forrester write in a note. “We don’t believe any ‘sell the fact’ attempt to sell the USD will prove lasting, especially if data continues to support higher yields." "Our sense is that he is unlikely to scare the horses,” said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “If so, the risk is that bond yields could track a bit lower and equities could remain supportive. Under such an environment, the dollar probably trades weaker." “The market is a little bit cautious ahead of this speech, but we think he (Powell) is likely to stress the continuity of monetary policy...because it wouldn’t be in his interest to have any major market reactions - that would make his job more difficult,” said Commerzbank currency strategist Anje Praefcke. “What he’s likely to state is what we’ve seen in the FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) minutes: that the outlook for the U.S. economy has improved considerably, short-term, and that both wages and consumer price inflation have recently surprised on the upside.” Meanwhile, stocks have already priced in a dovish (or at worst neutral) Fed, as the S&P is already back to the level where it was before the February selloff's worst day. Though the S&P down over 2% for February, it has recovered more than two thirds of the losses sustained in the wake of a drastic selloff early this month. Europe’s Stoxx 600 extended declines this morning to 0.3%, with 2 stocks down for every one that rises; most industry groups in the index declined, led by real estate and telecoms companies.  All but two industry groups are in the red, with telecom and chemical shares leading losses. Offsetting the drop was the Stoxx 600 Media Index which jumped 1.6% as Sky surges after the Comcast overbid. Consumer discretionary is the notable outperformer, lifted by Sky (+21%) after Comcast made an offer of GBP 12.50/shr for the Co., subsequently posing a threat to FOX’s (FOXA) offer for the Co. Elsewhere, UK homebuilders are firmer this morning following the latest earnings update from Persimmon (+11%) which has lifted some of its competitors higher in sympathy; Berkeley Group (BKG LN) +2.3%, Barratt Developments (+2.1%) and Taylor Wimpey (+1.7%). Earlier, Asian equities edged modestly higher, with Japanese stocks climbing to the highest in more than three weeks. ASX 200 (+0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) were both higher with the top performers in Australia underpinned by earnings releases, while the Japanese benchmark led the region and briefly surmounted the 22500 level. Elsewhere, Chinese markets were mixed in which the Hang Seng (-0.7%) was choppy and Shanghai Comp. (-1.1%) was the laggard after the PBoC refrained from open market operations. Furthermore, press reports also noted that China is facing tight liquidity conditions in March and that the PBoC could raise rates on open market o perations next month following an anticipated Fed hike. Earlier in the session, the MSCI All-Country World Index, was up 0.1% and set for its third straight day of gains after hitting its highest level since Feb. 5, although if Europe continues to sink, and if futures fail to rebound, the streak will soon be broken. Elsewhere in currencies, G10 currencies traded in narrow ranges against the dollar ahead of Powell’s appearance, with 21-DMAs seen as next hurdles for several pairs. The Sweden’s krona slides to a fresh eight-year low of 10.0903 against the euro; Sweden earlier saw a weaker-than- forecast economic tendency survey, followed by comments by Riksbank First Deputy Governor af Jochnick who expressed worry over the weak underlying inflation pressures. The USD/JPY traded in narrow 31-pip range as it continues to consolidate under 108 handle. The NZD/USD sold on disappointing trade data; nearing test of initial support at 0.7271, last week’s low. The euro traded at $1.2334, up 0.1 percent, but off its three-year high of $1.2556 hit earlier this month. Fed funds rate futures were almost fully pricing in a rate hike at the Fed’s next policy meeting on March 20-21. “Expectations that Powell will be sensitive to financial markets appear to be running high. But he hasn’t said he will sacrifice policy normalization for the sake of financial markets. I feel there is room for disappointment in markets,” said Hiroko Iwaki, senior bond strategist at Mizuho Securities. The 10-year Treasury yield edged higher after falling to a two-week low, rising to 2.870% if well below the recent four-year peak of 2.957% touched on Feb. 21, driven by month-end buying as well as position adjustments ahead of Powell’s testimony; German bunds and U.K. gilts led a retreat in European bonds. In other overnight news, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said US does not set policy to impact the USD, reiterates strong USD good for the economy. ECB's Weidmann said if economic upswing continues and prices rise there should be no reason not to end QE this year. Evidence that movements in FX are having a smaller impact on inflation than previously. Bigger QE reduction and clear end date to the bond buying programme would have been justifiable. In the latest Brexit news, UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson stated that UK will not remain subject to ECJ rulings.Reports stated the EU will threaten UK PM May's Brexit plan by rejecting British compromises and will warn that Northern Ireland must sign up to Brussels regulations; draft Brexit treaty is to be published on Wednesday. In related news, Brussels is expected to demand the UK remain under European Court of Justice oversight indefinitely post-Brexit under divorce agreement. French President Macron says a customs union agreement with the UK after Brexit is possible, however would not give full access to single market. Oil prices erased earlier gains as investor concerns about rising U.S. oil output offset signs of stronger demand and faith in the ability of OPEC production curbs to curtail supply. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fetched $63.68, down 0.3 percent, after hitting a three-week high of $64.24 the previous day. In addition to Powell's market-moving testimony, the market is set to receive a number of macro data, including the house price index. Marriott and Live Nation are among the more than a hundred companies that will report quarterly numbers Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,778 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 382.36 MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 179.65 MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan down 0.2% to 586.04 Nikkei up 1.1% to 22,389.86 Topix up 0.9% to 1,790.34 Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 31,268.66 Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 3,292.07 Sensex down 0.2% to 34,390.05 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,056.86 Kospi down 0.06% to 2,456.14 German 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 0.671% Euro up 0.1% to $1.2333 Brent Futures down 0.2% to $67.38/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 4.9 bps to 1.748% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.562% Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European bourses trade with little in the way of firm direction as markets await Fed Chair Powell’s testimony Above average Dollar demand for end of February FX portfolios seems to be keeping the broader Usd afloat as the DXY meanders around the mid-point of a tight 89.690-830 range Looking ahead, highlights nation German CPI, US durables, APIs and a slew of speakers Top overnight news from BBG EU Said to Stoke Brexit Tensions With 100-Page Draft Exit Deal Comcast Offers to Buy Sky in $30 Billion Challenge to Fox Traders Unfazed by Italy Election, But Some Warn of Complacency Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s embrace of his predecessor’s gradual approach to tightening monetary policy is about to be tested as he delivers his first congressional testimony on Tuesday. The European Union will challenge Theresa May on Wednesday when it publishes a draft Brexit treaty that ignores some of the U.K. prime minister’s most important demands. Mario Draghi largely skirted the Latvia crisis affecting the European Central Bank and stuck to his plans to keep adding stimulus as he addressed European Parliament lawmakers on Monday. Xi Jinping’s decision to cast aside China’s presidential term limits is stoking concern he also intends to shun international rules on trade and finance, even as he champions them on the world stage. It doesn’t make sense for the U.S. to impose steel and aluminum tariffs on other NATO members in the name of national security, according to a senior European Union official. China plans to reduce its annual budget-deficit target to just under 3 percent of total economic output, people familiar with the matter said Asian equity markets traded mixed following yesterday’s US gains where declining yields eased some concerns of steep rate increases and the majors rallied to their best levels in over 3 weeks. ASX 200 (+0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) were both higher with the top performers in Australia underpinned by earnings releases, while the Japanese benchmark led the region and briefly surmounted the 22500 level. Elsewhere, Chinese markets were mixed in which the Hang Seng (-0.7%) was choppy and Shanghai Comp. (-1.1%) was the laggard after the PBoC refrained from open market operations. Furthermore, press reports also noted that China is facing tight liquidity conditions in March and that the PBoC could raise rates on open market operations next month following an anticipated Fed hike. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat despite the upside in riskier assets, with prices contained at the 151.00 level while today’s 2yr auction results were also encouraging with b/c and accepted prices higher than previous. PBoC skipped open market operations and cited relatively high liquidity in the banking system. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.3146 (Prev. 6.3378). PBoC may increase Open Market Operation rates in March after an expected Fed rate hike with the increases in repo rates will likely be around 5bps, while reports added that China is to face a tight balance in liquidity during next month. Top Asian News China Is Said to Plan First Budget Deficit Target Cut Since 2012 Alibaba Said to Buy Out Baidu in China’s Top Takeout App Bank Fraud Fallout in India Spreads to Market for Trade Finance Guinigundo Doesn’t See Need to Raise Policy Rate ‘At this Point’ Chinese Investors Yank Record Funds From Hong Kong Stocks More European stocks fall, trading near session lows, (Stoxx 600 down -0.3%), after the Sky overbid and post-Asia-Pac opening gains were trimmed. Taking a look at the sectors, consumer discretionary is the notable outperformer, lifted by Sky (+21%) after Comcast made an offer of GBP 12.50/shr for the Co., subsequently posing a threat to FOX’s (FOXA) offer for the Co. Elsewhere, UK homebuilders are firmer this morning following the latest earnings update from Persimmon (+11%) which has lifted  some of its  competitors higher in sympathy; Berkeley Group (BKG LN) +2.3%, Barratt Developments (+2.1%) and Taylor Wimpey (+1.7%). Finally, Provident Financial (+74%) tops the Stoxx 600 after announcing its rights issue and settlement with the FCA. Top European News EU Said to Stoke Brexit Tensions With 100-Page Draft Exit Deal World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Returned $131 Billion in 2017 Business Gauge Picks up in Italy Shortly Before Election Provident Surges on Better-Than-Feared FCA Pact, Dividend Plan In currencies, above average Dollar demand for end of February FX portfolios seems to be keeping the broader Usd afloat as the DXY meanders around the mid-point of a tight 89.690-830 range. Currency markets also erring on the side of caution ahead of Fed chair Powell’s House testimony and (potentially) any further clues about risks around the FOMC consensus for 3 hikes in 2018. Indeed, individual G10 pairs are equally restrained within narrow bands, with Eur/Usd holding between 1.2300-50 amidst mixed EZ inflation data (German states soft, so far vs firmer Spanish headline and harmonised prints) and Cable not deviating outside 1.3950-1.4000 despite some Gbp negative Brexit reports. Perhaps Sterling deriving some support from latest M&A developments and Comcast’s mega Gbp22 bn bid for Sky. Usd/Jpy looks even more tethered to the 107.00 level, with export supply capping the upside and buying interest supporting ahead of 106.50. Elsewhere, some further movement in Eur/Sek after Swedish trade data and more dovish-sounding Riksbank rhetoric with the cross inching above the circa 10.0800 high from 2016 to 10.0900. In the commodities complex, both WTI and Brent crude futures have continued to pull back from recent highs despite the softer USD as concerns over mounting US production remains a key theme with IEA Chief Birol stating that the US is to be largest oil producer by next year and sees US output exceeding 11mln bpd by late this year. In metals markets, spot gold is relatively steady at this stage of the session with markets awaiting Fed Powell’s testimony later today. Elsewhere, Chinese steel futures saw another session of gains overnight amid speculation over further extensions to output curbs. Iraqi oil production is around 4.35mln bpd, according to Iraq oil ministry official. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $72.3b deficit, prior $71.6b deficit, revised $72.3b deficit 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%; Retail Inventories MoM, prior 0.2%, revised 0.2% 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. -2.0%, prior 2.8%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.7% 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior -0.6%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4% 9am: House Price Purchase Index QoQ, prior 1.4%; FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4% 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index, prior 204.2; CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.6%, prior 0.75% 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 15, prior 14 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 126.5, prior 125.4; Present Situation, prior 155.3; Expectations, prior 105.5 Central Banks 8:30am: Fed Powell’s Congressional Testimony is Released 10am: Fed’s Powell Testifies to House Financial Services Committee   DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The highlight today will be German inflation (1.3% yoy expected) and new Fed Chair Powell’s testimony at 3pm GMT. Mr Powell will be speaking on behalf of the FOMC, and our economists fully expect him to reiterate that a “gradual” path of policy normalization remains the order of the day. However, he will also likely discuss emerging upside risks to the growth outlook in the wake of recent fiscal policy changes. In this respect, the minutes of the January 31 FOMC meeting provide a good template for Powell’s prepared remarks. Recall that last week’s minutes indicated that “Most members noted that recent information on inflation along with prospects for a continued solid pace of economic activity provided support for the view that inflation on a 12-month basis would likely move up in 2018 and stabilize around the Committee’s 2% objective in the medium term.” In short, Powell will likely convey the message that with an improving growth and labor market outlook, the Fed continues to gain confidence that the inflation side of its dual mandate will soon be met. Outside of this the market will be fascinating to see how he handles his first big public appearance in the new role. Staying in the US, Mr Quarles who became a Fed Governor last October seemed reasonably upbeat last night. He noted “it has been quite some time since the (US) economic environment looked as favourable as it does now” and  that “some of the factors that have been holding back growth…could shift, moving the economy onto a higher growth trajectory”. On rates, he reiterated the Fed’s view of “further gradual increases in rates will be appropriate…”, while noting the Fed will be “looking at Volcker rule recalibrations over the next few months”. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Bullard reiterated his dovish views that the Fed should avoid an aggressive pace of rate hikes unless incoming macro data surprise to the upside. He added “these are good times for the US economy, but not as good as they’ve been at other junctures”. This morning in Asia, markets have broadly followed the positive US lead last night with the Nikkei (+0.95%) and Kospi (+0.21%) both up, while the Hang Seng is marginally down (-0.15%) and China’s CSI 300 -1.35% lower as we type. Earlier the S&P was up for the third consecutive day (+1.18%) and now +7.7%  above its recent lows while only -3.2% below its all-time high. Within the S&P, all sectors but utilities were up with gains led by the telco, tech and financial stocks. In tech, an equally weighted market cap index on the FANG stocks is now back at its record highs and 12.1% higher than its recent lows. The Dow (+1.58%) and Nasdaq (+1.15%) also rallied yesterday. Back in Europe, all markets were higher, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.50%), DAX (+0.35%) and FTSE (+0.62%) modestly up. The VIX fell for the fourth straight day to 15.80 (-4.2%). In government bonds, core 10y bond yields were little changed (UST 10y -0.5bp; Gilts -1.2bp; Bunds flat) while peripherals outperformed with yields down 4-5bp. Gains were led by Italy, in part as the governing Democratic Party leader Renzi noted “we’ll never form any government with extremists” as per the La Stempa newspaper. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index and Sterling both dipped marginally, while the Euro rose 0.18%. In commodities, WTI oil was up for the third straight day (+0.57%). Elsewhere, precious metals gained c0.5% (Gold +0.37%; Silver +0.77%) and other base metals were mixed but little changed (Copper -0.21%; Aluminium -0.70%; Zinc +0.51%). Away from markets and onto Mr Draghi’s Parliamentary address where he seemed slightly dovish and broadly stuck to prior commentaries. On QE, he noted “the possible extension of QE has not been discussed by the Governing Council”. On inflation, he said “we’re generally more confident that it is proceeding towards our target”, but we also “have to be persistent and patient because the underlying inflation has yet to show more convincing signs of a sustained upward adjustment”. Further, “the evolution of inflation remains crucially conditional on an ample degree of monetary stimulus provided by the full set of our monetary policy measures….” On the outlook, he noted that the “…economic situation is improving constantly”, but “uncertainties continues to prevail”, so “we need the right blend” of measures. Finally on FX, he reiterated that the recent volatility in the Euro deserves close monitoring. Tuning to Brexit headlines. The UK opposition leader Corbyn has confirmed what had been well flagged namely that the Labour party’s supports staying in a customs union with the EU post Brexit and is calling for cross party support. This is contrary to the government’s position, which issued a statement later to indicate “the government will not be joining a customs union…we want to have the freedom to sign our trade deals”. Elsewhere, Mr Corbyn reiterated there was no need for a second referendum on Brexit but does want a meaningful vote in Parliament at the end of the Brexit negotiations. Looking ahead, the EU is expected to publish a draft Brexit treaty on Wednesday and PM May will outline her vision of Brexit this Friday. Staying in Europe and delving into Italian credits a bit more, Michal Jezek in my team published a report "IG Strategy: Credit Pricing Ahead of the Italian Elections". He notes that sovereign credit has outperformed corporates YTD and hedging flows have turned CDS indices into major underperformers, pushing the CDS-bond basis to the extreme. The report also analyses the relative performance of Italian corporate credit. It concludes that iTraxx Europe indices now trade too cheap to be efficient hedges around the event and given the strong hedging flows, it suggests that current levels offer an attractive entry point for the strategic CDSbond basis compression trade recommended earlier. Refer to the full report here. Finally, our US economists have built on their recent work on procyclical and acyclical inflation. Their new estimates of r-star (neutral funds rates) derived from procyclical inflation are about 20bps higher than estimates derived from core inflation, as is standard with r-star estimates. This implies that the Fed has even further to hike before getting to neutral than commonly assumed. That said, they view their analysis as evidence which makes them more confident in their current outlook for four rate hikes in 2018 and a terminal rate above 3%. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the February Dallas Fed manufacturing index was above market at 37.2 (vs. 30 expected) and the highest since December 2005. The January Chicago Fed National activity index was below expectations but still above 0 at 0.12 (vs. 0.25 expected). Elsewhere, the January new home sales fell 7.8% mom to the lowest since August (593k vs. 647k  expected). In the UK, the January Finance loans for housing was 40.1k (vs. 37k expected). Looking at the day ahead, Germany’s flash February CPI and the Euro area’s January money supply prints are due. Then a range of February confidence indicators are due for the Euro area, France and Italy. In the US, the February Richmond Fed and CB consumer confidence index will be out. Further, a deluge of data including: January advanced goods trade balance, wholesale and retail inventories, durable and capital goods orders along with the December FHFA and S&P corelogic house price index are also due. Onto other events, the Fed’s Powell testifies in front of the House Financial services committee. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Weidmann and Mersch as well as BOE’s Sam Woods will speak. The Brookings Institution will host a conversation with the former Fed Governor Yellen and Bernanke. Finally, the EU negotiator Barnier will brief European affairs ministers.

27 февраля, 14:35

Основные фондовые индексы Европы начали день ростом

Европейские фондовые индексы торгуются с повышением во вторник утром, в то время как инвесторы наблюдают за выпуском экономических данных и ожидают выступления нового главы ФРС Джерома Пауэлла позднее на сессии. Общеевропейский индекс Stoxx 600 вырос на 0,17 процента, при этом сектора двигались в разных направлениях. Акции СМИ были наилучшими исполнителями на поздних утренних торгах, достигнув месячного максимума, следом за новостями о том, что медиа-гигант Comcast из США выдвинул предложение купить Sky за 22,1 миллиарда фунтов (31 миллиард долларов). Акции Sky выросли на новости и достигли вершины европейского теста, поднявшись на 20 процентов. С другой стороны, химические акции были одними из худших участников на фоне результатов о доходах. После публикации последних результатов Croda International упала на 1,5 процента. Standard Chartered вырос на 1,4 процента после того, как объявил о возобновлении выплаты дивидендов. Британский домостроитель Persimmon также подскочил на 10 процентов во вторник после сообщения о 2-процентном увеличении прибыли за 2017 год. Компания заявила, что продала больше домов и по более высоким ценам. Выпуск отчета о доходах увеличил акции по всему сектору, при этом Berkeley Group и Barratt Developments также выросли более чем на 2 процента. Что касается данных, еврозона сообщила об ухудшении потребительских настроений в феврале по сравнению с предыдущим месяцем. В то же время данные Европейской комиссии также показали более низкие инфляционные ожидания в феврале с января. Председатель ФРС Джером Пауэлл должен сделать свой дебютный доклад в Конгрессе позже сегодня. Выступление Пауэлла рассматривается как критическое для финансовых рынков в то время, когда многие трейдеры обеспокоены нормализацией политики центрального банка США на фоне многолетних стимулов после финансового кризиса. На текущий момент: FTSE 7289.29 -0.29 0% DAX 12501.87 -25.17 -0.20% CAC 5341.48 -2.78 -0.05% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

22 февраля, 14:56

S&P Futures Rebound As Dollar Rally Ends, Yields Drop

Global stocks took another leg down during the early part of Thursday's session, sliding to one-week lows in the wake of Wednesday's unexpectedly market-moving FOMC minutes which confirmed the Fed was on track to raise interest rates several times this year, sending bond yields to new multi-year highs amid prospects for 4 rate hikes on deck (and according to Goldman, even 5 possible). However, after sliding initially, S&P futures have since staged a rebound, rising as much as 20 points from session lows, and are currently back in the green, modestly above 2,700. The rebound was helped by the end of the USD rally, as the dollar’s boost following the Fed minutes proved short-lived as the U.S. currency struggled to gain for a fifth day. Meanwhile, the euro was unfazed by a miss in German IFO data, finding support from broad dollar selling after the London open in a rather slow session. The dollar weakness sent EURUSD back to 1.23, while GBP underperforms after a disappointing GDP revision and the ongoing Brexit saga   In other key FX pairs, per BBG: USD/JPY declines 0.4% as a slide in local stocks spurs demand for haven assets EUR/USD edges up; premium to hedge political risks rising, with two-week smile flattening as demand for low-delta puts remains strong amid higher volatility in the front end GBP/USD resumes its slide, trades 0.2% lower, after data showed that the U.K. economy expanded less than previously estimated in 4Q as consumers and businesses absorbed faster price increases Three rate rises are now almost fully priced in for 2018, compared with two as recently as December, and some analysts are even contemplating the possibility of as many as five rate hikes in 2018. And while 10Y TSY yields have traded rangebound within 2 bps of 2.93%, German bunds have unwound the sell-off seen post-FOMC Minutes, following disappointing German IFO data after Wednesday’s weaker-than-forecast European PMIs.  The “transatlantic spread” between German and U.S. 10-year borrowing costs widened to near a year high at 220 bps, reflecting the diverging monetary policy expectations between the two countries. The 3% level on 10Y TSY yields is seen as a huge psychological milestone for bulls and bears alike. In the meantime though the yield, which hit four-year highs around 2.96 percent after the minutes, retreated to 2.93%. Two-year yields touched new nine-year peaks. A break in the U.S. 10- year treasury above the psychological level of 3% may prove sufficiently attractive to spur demand among foreign investors. This would support the dollar against CEEMEA currencies, Rabobank EMFX strategist Piotr Matys writes in a note to clients. The next hurdle for markets will be minutes from the European Central Bank’s last meeting at 1230 GMT, with investors keen to see if there was more talk of an eventual unwinding of stimulus. One school of thought says that shifting perceptions about the ECB’s policy outlook had a significant role to play in the surge in U.S. Treasury yields that began in September and picked up speed last month, roiling global stocks. European equities followed Asia peers lower: the Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid as all the major national equity gauges in the region fell. In terms of sector specific moves, material names modestly lag their peers following price action in the complex as well as a disappointing earnings update from Anglo American (-4%) which has sent their shares near the bottom of the FSTE 100; with the index also hampered by lacklustre earnings from the likes of British American Tobacco (-4.6%), Barratt Developments (-4.0%) and BAE systems. However, losses for UK stocks have been capped by a well-received earnings report from Barclays (+5.1%) which allied with upside in AXA shares (+1.2%) post-earnings has also supported the financial sector. Earlier in Asia most shares retreated, though China’s market bucked the trend as it reopened after a holiday. The Nikkei (-1.1%) and Hang Seng (-1.5%) saw losses of over 1%, while ASX 200 (+0.1%) saw initial 0.4% gains trimmed, with price action in Australia largely dictated by the slew of earnings. “The market is pricing in the possibility of a tighter Fed over time,” Evan Brown, director at UBS Asset Management, who previously worked on the open market trading desk at the New York Fed, told Bloomberg TV in New York. On a day-to-day basis “you’re going to see volatility, you’re going to see equities get a little skittish when yields are rising, but as you look over the long term, fundamentals on the economy are very strong.” However, for now Bloomberg notes that markets remain fragile as February is shaping up as one of the worst months for global equities in more than a year as concerns about a pick-up in inflation and expensive stock prices outweigh evidence of a buoyant U.S. economy. With recent data underpinning the view that inflation is no longer lagging, the OIS space shows traders pricing in just shy of three U.S. rate hikes over the next 12 months. Elsewhere, gold retreated alongside most commodities.  WTI and Brent crude trade lower albeit off worst levels after falling victim to the firmer USD despite last night’s unexpected build in the API report. As a reminder, due to the President’s Day Holiday on Monday the weekly DoE report will be released today. In metals markets, gold prices have also been hampered by the firmer USD, however, the move to the downside has perhaps been contained due to the price action seen in EU stocks this morning. Elsewhere, steel prices were seen lower during Asia-Pac trade as Chinese participants slowly returned from holiday, with a bulk of the market not expected to fully return until next week. Bulletin headline summary from RanSquawk European equities (-1%) have kicked the session off on the back-foot as European participants digest the fall-out of yesterday’s FOMC minutes The DXY has nailed 90.000 with the aid of hawkish FOMC minutes, but Usd/Jpy continues to buck the broader trend amidst the ongoing global stock market retracement Looking ahead, highlights ECB minutes, US weekly jobs, DoEs and a slew of speakers Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,691.50 MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.8% to 175.69 MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan down 1% to 575.54 Nikkei down 1.1% to 21,736.44 Topix down 0.9% to 1,746.17 Hang Seng Index down 1.5% to 30,965.68 Shanghai Composite up 2.2% to 3,268.56 Sensex unchanged at 33,846.31 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 5,950.88 Kospi down 0.6% to 2,414.28 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 377.57 German 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 0.712% Euro up 0.02% to $1.2286 Brent Futures down 0.6% to $65.00/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to 1.78% Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 1.501% Brent Futures down 0.6% to $65.00/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,322.89 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.07% to 90.06 Top Overnight News Fed’s Quarles says the natural rate of interest is increasing in the U.S. and that the economy is in the best shape that it has been since the crisis U.K. GDP growth in 2017 was revised down to 1.7% from 1.8%, the weakest since 2012, as price rises led to household budgets being squeezed leading to slowing growth in a number of consumer-facing industries U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will shut her most senior cabinet ministers away in a room until late Thursday night in an effort to force them to agree what kind of Brexit they want. But officials warn in private that the most divisive decisions may get kicked down the road The U.S. Treasury Department sold $35 billion of five-year notes at a yield of 2.658 percent. Bid/cover ratio fell to 2.44 from 2.48, indicating weaker demand U.S. central bankers sent a strong message Wednesday that an expansion with “substantial underlying economic momentum” could sustain more rate hikes; Treasuries sold off aggressively into the 3pm ET settlement as gains sparked by minutes of FOMC’s Jan. 31 meeting were quickly faded Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the central bank’s symmetric approach to its 2% inflation target means “the math says we should be able to tolerate 2.5 percent for five years,” after running at 1.5 percent for five years Euro bulls are struggling to push the currency above $1.25 this year, just as the $1.20 level proved a blocking point in 2017 Do 10-year Treasury yields hit 3 percent and retreat, or does positioning signal a sharp move higher? Open interest on 10-year Treasury futures suggests 3 percent may not be the crucial level after all Asian markets trading broadly in the red with exception of the Shanghai Comp (+2.2%) which outperforms are  participants plays catch up from their elongated break. The prospect of ‘further’ gradual rate hikes as noted in the most recent FOMC minutes boosted speculation that 4 rate hikes could be on the table particularly that these minutes were before the strong wage data in the most recent NFP and inflation data last week, which had subsequently pushed bond yields higher with the US 10yr yield hitting 2.95%, while equities slumped late in the US session. This transpired in Asia, with the Nikkei (-1.1%) and Hang Seng (-1.5%) seeing losses of over 1%, while ASX 200 (+0.1%) saw initial 0.4% gains trimmed, with price action in Australia largely dictated by the slew of earnings. In credit markets, the belly of the curve underperformed, with JGB 10yr yields tracking UST yields higher, while a firm 20yr JGB auction supported longer dated debt. Japan PM Abe Adviser Hamada says the BoJ should consider buying foreign bonds.  PBoC sets CNY mid-point at 6.3530 (Prev. 6.3428). Top Asian News China’s VIX Stops Updating Amid Government Scrutiny of Options Indonesia Sees Jump in 10-Year Bond Yield as ‘Temporary’ India Releases Plan to Strengthen State Telecom Cos; MTNL Surges China Junk Bonds Show More Resilience on Local Investor Support Sembcorp Marine Extends Loss by Most Since 2008 After Earns Miss European equities (-1%) have kicked the session off on the back-foot as European participants digest the fall-out of yesterday’s more hawkish than anticipated FOMC minutes which saw rate-setters take a confident view on the growth and inflation outlook. In terms of sector specific moves, material names modestly lag their peers following price action in the complex as well as a disappointing earnings update from Anglo American (-4%) which has sent their shares near the bottom of the FSTE 100; with the index also hampered by lacklustre earnings from the likes of British American Tobacco (-4.6%), Barratt Developments (-4.0%) and BAE systems. However, losses for UK stocks have been capped by a well-received earnings report from Barclays (+5.1%) which allied with upside in AXA shares (+1.2%) post-earnings has also supported the financial sector. Top European news Neo-Fascist Beaten to a Pulp in Sicily: Italy Campaign Trail HSBC Chairman Is Said to Prepare Board Reduction: Sky Fosun Buys Controlling Stake in Lanvin FCA Probing Barclays Bank’s Treatment of Clients in Default German Business Confidence Slips as Companies Face Bottlenecks In currencies, the DXY has nailed 90.000 with the aid of hawkish FOMC minutes, but Usd/Jpy continues to buck the broader trend amidst the ongoing global stock market retracement and heightened volatility. Flow-wise, heavy supply at and just ahead of 108.00 is still capping the pair, while 108.02 represents Fib resistance and the headline looks increasingly toppy given lower peaks since the recent 107.90 high. Hence, the broader Dollar and index is struggling to maintain gains and mount a challenge of the next upside technical objective at 90.886 despite reclaiming more lost ground vs other G10 rivals. Eur/Usd has lost grip of the 1.2300 handle and could see more downside on the back of a significantly weaker than expected German Ifo survey, especially as the technical picture also looks bearish below its 1.2319 Fib level and with little in the way of support until 1.2206. Cable is testing bids under 1.3900 amidst latest Brexit-related UK political accusations aimed at PM May, but holding above chart support seen around 1.3830. As per the single currency, Sterling may be prone to further losses in wake of a data miss as UK Q4 GDP was downgraded on zero business investment during the quarter (again likely as a result of Brexit). Elsewhere, Usd/majors fairly flat as the DXY hovers just above the 90.000 level. In the commodities complex, WTI and Brent crude trade lower albeit off worst levels after falling victim to the firmer USD despite last night’s unexpected build in the API report. As a reminder, due to the President’s Day Holiday on Monday the weekly DoE report will be released today at the rescheduled time of 1600GMT. In metals markets, gold prices have also been hampered by the firmer USD, however, the move to the downside has perhaps been contained due to the price action seen in EU stocks this morning. Elsewhere, steel prices were seen lower during Asia-Pac trade as Chinese participants slowly returned from holiday, with a bulk of the market not expected to fully return until next week. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 230,000, prior 230,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.93m, prior 1.94m 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.7%, prior 0.6% 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 18, prior 16 10am: Fed’s Dudley to Speak at New York Fed Briefing on Puerto Rico 12:10pm: Fed’s Bostic Speaks at Banking Conference in Atlanta 3:30pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks on Trade Panel in Vancouver DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The main thing that jumped yesterday was US yields after the FOMC minutes. Not long after the release yields were actually flat and the S&P 500 up around 1%. However then 10 yr US yields reacted and rose 6bps to 2.951% and the S&P 500 closed -0.55% - the lowest level in a week. The minutes indicated that “a majority of participants noted that a stronger outlook for economic growth raised the likelihood that further gradual policy firming would be appropriate”. On the economy, it noted that “a number of participants indicated that they had marked up their forecasts for economic growth in the near term relative to …the December meeting” and that “several others suggested that the upside risks to the near-term outlook for economic activity may have increased.” On inflation,"almost all participants who commented agreed that a Phillips curve type inflation framework remained useful…”. Elsewhere, some participants said that they saw an appreciable risk that inflation would continue to fall short of the Fed’s objective, but overall inflation is expected to “move up” this year and stabilise around 2% over the medium term. On wage gains, “a number of participants judged that the continued tightening in labour markets was likely to translate into faster wage increases at some point”. Notably, the relatively hawkish minutes was before the January wage growth and CPI / PPI prints, so it seems reasonable to assume that if the Fed was getting more confident in their growth and inflation outlook at their meeting,  the subsequent data releases would have only added to their views. Staying in the US, the flash February PMIs were all above market, with the composite PMI at 55.9 (vs. 53.8 previous), services at 55.9 (vs. 53.7 expected) and manufacturing PMI at 55.9 (vs. 55.5 expected). Conversely, Europe’s flash PMIs were a fair bit below expectations but remain at solid levels. The Euro area’s composite PMI came in at 57.5 (vs. 58.4 expected), while the services PMI was 56.7 (vs. 57.6 expected) and manufacturing PMI at 58.5 (vs. 59.2 expected). Across the region, Germany’s composite PMI was 57.4 (vs. 58.5 expected) and France’s composite PMI was 57.8 (vs. 59.2 expected), with both countries’ services and manufacturing PMI also lower than expectations. Given the weaker European PMI numbers yesterday I made a point of speaking to our head Euro Economist Mark Wall last night about his views on them. He was relatively relaxed as his forecasts always assumed some moderation in growth which the PMIs would have to eventually acknowledge if he were to be correct. He said that the momentum in recent months was implying 0.9% qoq GDP growth compared to a DB forecast of 0.6% qoq in H1. Yesterday’s numbers narrows these upside risks in H1. In H2 he continues to see a loss of momentum as capacity bites, credit conditions get capped and competitiveness erodes, etc. He does think the recent financial conditions shock was too fleeting to believe it was the obvious culprit for the weaker numbers though. Even at 0.6%, GDP growth is above trend and despite the weaker PMIs, Mark believes that capacity will continue to be absorbed and the economy tighten. In fact he cited the fact that PMI delivery times lengthened in February, implying a further acceleration in underlying PPI inflation over the next 6-9 months and potential upside risks to inflation in H2. Turning to news on the Brexit transition period where the EU had previously suggested an end date of December 2020. However, according to a draft UK government legal proposal obtained by Bloomberg, it suggests the actual date may be up for some debate. The document indicated “the UK believes the period’s duration should be determined simply by how long it will take to prepare and implement the new processes….that will underpin the future partnership” and that “the UK agrees this points to…around two years, but wishes to discuss with the EU the assessment that supports its prosed end date”. Later on, the Chief of Staff for Brexit Secretary Mr Jackson noted the UK has not changed its transition plans, which is “around two years”. Elsewhere, the EC’s Juncker “still believes that (both sides) should be able to agree (on the withdrawal agreement) by October and agree on the final terms…” Staying in the UK, the December unemployment rate edged up from its c42 year low and rose for the first time since July last year to 4.4% (vs. 4.3% expected), while the average weekly earnings growth was in line and steady mom at 2.5% yoy. Speaking in front of the Treasury Committee, the BOE’s Haldane noted “…the pick-up in wages is starting to take root” and that “intelligence from our agents suggests wage settlements this year were going to pick up, perhaps  with a number with a three in front of it….” Further, he added risks for the UK economy were “to the upside”. Elsewhere, the BOE Governor Carney reiterated that cash rates need to rise in the “coming months” but it would be ‘gradual and limited” and refrained from providing guidance on potential timing. The implied Bloomberg odds of a May rate hike rose c4ppt to 61.5%. This morning in Asia, markets are broadly lower with the Nikkei (-1.25%), Hang Seng (-0.98%) and Kospi (-0.58%) all down as we type. Elsewhere, UST 10y yield is down c1bp while the three key Chinese bourses are up 1.8%-2.1% after trading resumed following the New Year holidays. Now recapping other market performance from yesterday. US bourses reversed earlier gains to close modestly lower (S&P -0.55%; Dow -0.67%; Nasdaq -0.22%). Within the S&P, all sectors fell with losses led by the real estate, energy and telco stocks. European markets were mixed but little changed as they closed well before the FOMC minutes were released. The Stoxx 600 edged up 0.16% while the FTSE rose 0.48% but the DAX dipped 0.14%. The VIX fell for the first time in three days to 20.02 (-2.8%). Over in government bonds, core European 10y bond yields fell 1-3bp (Bunds & OATs -1.3bp; Gilts -3.1bp), with the latter partly impacted by the unemployment print. In the US, the treasury sold $35bn of five year notes at a yield of 2.658% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.44x (vs. 2.48x previous). Elsewhere, the UST 2y, 5y, 10y yields rose 4.7bp, 4.1bp and 6bp respectively. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index rose for the third trading day (+0.47%), while the Euro and Sterling fell 0.43% and 0.56% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil rose 0.39% to $61.79/ bbl while precious metals were little changed (Gold -0.34%; Silver +0.36%). Away from the markets and onto three Fed speakers overnight. The Fed’s Kashkari said “Wall Street overreacts to everything….we can’t make policy based on market blips up and down”. On rates, he noted, “we debate each word change in the (FOMC) statement…a lot of debate goes into those…and I think (the word) “further” (in the last statement) was intended to say continuing the current path we’re on”. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Harker reiterated his views of two rate hikes in 2018 and unemployment falling to 3.6% by mid-2019 while the Fed’s Kaplan reaffirmed his call for “gradual and patient” tightening and expects an unemployment rate of 3.6% by year end. Notably, none of the three speakers are policy voters this year. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the January existing home sales was below expectations at 5.38m (vs. 5.6m) and down 4.8% yoy. Notably, the number of homes available for sale fell 9.5% yoy, partly continuing the upward pressure on home prices where the median selling price was up 5.8% yoy. Elsewhere, the UK’s January public sector net borrowing was broadly in line at -£11.6bln (vs. - £11.4bln expected). Looking at the day ahead, the February confidence indicators and the final January CPI report in France are due, followed by the Germany's IFO survey for February and the second estimate of Q4 GDP in the UK. In the US, data releases include initial jobless claims, the January leading indicators index and the February Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index print. Japan's CPI report for January will be out in the late evening. Away from the data, the Fed's Dudley and Bostic are due to speak.

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21 февраля, 16:37

Полугодовая доналоговая прибыль Barratt Developments выросла на 6,8% г/г

Британский застройщик Barratt Developments зафиксировал 6,8%-ное повышение полугодовой прибыли благодаря увеличению продаж и росту цен, а также объявил, что поднимет величину дивидендных платежей. Так, по итогам шести месяцев с окончанием в декабре доналоговая прибыль компании увеличилась с 321 млн фунтов стерлингов годом ранее до 342,7 млн фунтов ($480,3 млн), а чистая прибыль выросла на 5,2% г/г до 273,3 млн фунтов. Тем временем, выручка в рассматриваемом периоде поднялась на 9,5% г/г с 1,82 млрд фунтов до 1,99 млрд фунтов. При этом средняя стоимость проданного компанией жилья увеличилась на 6,5% г/г до 281 000 фунтов. Barratt также объявила, что выплатит дивиденды в размере 8,6 пенса на акцию, что на 18% выше величины аналогичного периода 2016 года.

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21 февраля, 16:25

Полугодовая доналоговая прибыль Barratt Developments выросла на 6,8% г/г

Британский застройщик Barratt Developments зафиксировал 6,8%-ное повышение полугодовой прибыли благодаря увеличению продаж и росту цен, а также объявил, что поднимет величину дивидендных платежей. Так, по итогам шести месяцев с окончанием в декабре доналоговая прибыль компании увеличилась с 321 млн фунтов стерлингов годом ранее до 342,7 млн фунтов ($480,3 млн), а чистая прибыль выросла на 5,2% г/г до 273,3 млн фунтов. Тем временем, выручка в рассматриваемом периоде поднялась на 9,5% г/г с 1,82 млрд фунтов до 1,99 млрд фунтов. При этом средняя стоимость проданного компанией жилья увеличилась на 6,5% г/г до 281 000 фунтов. Barratt также объявила, что выплатит дивиденды в размере 8,6 пенса на акцию, что на 18% выше величины аналогичного периода 2016 года.

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21 февраля, 12:08

Barratt considers shifting production from Germany to UK

Britain’s biggest housebuilder could make construction blocks domestically as Brexit loomsBritain’s biggest housebuilder, Barratt Developments, is considering moving the production of blocks used in construction from Germany to Britain, an example of the steps some businesses are taking to mitigate against risks from Brexit. London and Brussels hope to agree a deal this month to protect the free movement of goods between Britain and the EU until 2020, but many companies are developing contingency plans. Continue reading...

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23 ноября 2017, 14:30

Основные фондовые индексы Европы перешли от снижения к росту

В четверг утром европейские акции снизились после резкого падения на китайских рынках и на фоне слабых объемов торговли во всем мире. Общеевропейский индекс Stoxx 600 снизился на 0,17 процента, при этом большинство секторов торгуются на отрицательной территории. Коммунальные акции были худшими исполнителями, упав более чем на 0,8 процента на фоне отчетов по прибыли. Centrica упала на целых 14 процентов после объявления о том, что за четыре месяца она потеряла 823 000 клиентов. Основные ресурсы также снизились примерно на 0,5 процента, поскольку рынки Китая столкнулись с проблемами ликвидности. Шанхайский индекс закрылся примерно на 2 процента ниже с технологическим, потребительским и медицинскими секторами, зарегистрировавшими самые крутые потери за день. Рынки США закрыты сегодня по случаю праздника Дня Благодарения, а японский Nikkei также был закрыт в четверг, что привело к снижению объемов торгов во всем мире. В Европе, Thyssenkrupp опубликовал рекордный заказ элеваторов, способствующий достижению максимального количества поступивших заказов в течение пяти лет. Фирма также сообщила в четверг, что она по-прежнему стремится заключить контракт с Tata Steel в начале 2018 года. Акции компании выросли на 1,2 процента. Altice попала на вершину европейского индекса на новостях о возможной продаже своей сети в Доминиканской Республике. Акции подскочили примерно на 7 процентов. Акции британских домостроителей выросли в четверг после распродажи в предыдущий день из-за заявлений британского правительства о поддержке собственников жилья. Большинство аналитиков считают, что распродажа была чрезмерной реакцией. Barratt Developments вырос на 1,2 процента, а Taylor Wimpey вырос на 1,1 процента. В других корпоративных новостях немецкий гигант программного обеспечения для бизнеса SAP начал исследование возможностей своего бизнеса в Персидском заливе, сообщает Reuters. Глядя на данные, предварительный составной PMI в еврозоне оказался выше ожиданий, достигнув 79-месячного максимума в ноябре. Экономисты ожидали неизменного чтения с октября. На текущий момент: FTSE 7419.29 0.27 0% DAX 13041.35 26.31 0.20% CAC 5388.21 35.45 0.66% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

15 ноября 2017, 14:29

Основные фондовые индексы Европы снижаются

В среду утром европейские акции ушли вглубь негативной территории, так как настроения на рынке были под давлением более слабых цен на нефть. Сводный европейский индекс Stoxx 600 упал на 1 процент, причем почти все сектора, за исключением телекоммуникационных компаний, торгуются в минусе. На отдельных биржах немецкий DAX упал более чем на 1 процент. Основные ресурсы были наихудшим исполнителем в утренних сделках, на которые повлияли более низкие, чем ожидалось, розничные продажи и данные по промышленному производству в Китае во вторник. Цены на металлы упали в среду, что добавило давления на акции горнодобывающей промышленности. Бумаги Glencore, Anglo American и Rio Tinto упали более чем на 2 процента. Производитель меди Aurubis обвалился более чем на 6,5 процента. Нефтегазовый сектор вплотную приблизился к сектору основных ресурсов, упав на 1,5 процента на фоне более низких цен на нефть. Цены на нефть упали после доклада Международного энергетического агентства, в котором прогнозировалось снижение спроса на нефть в этом году и в следующем. Акции Barratt Developments упали, несмотря на то, что компания объявила об увеличении объема форвардных продаж на 8,4 процента. Британский домостроитель также сказал, что он уверен в хороших операционных показателях в 2018 финансовом году. Немецкий производитель резины Lanxess упал более чем на 3,5 процента после сообщения о чистой прибыли в третьем квартале ниже, чем год назад. Между тем, оператор калийных рудников K + S опустился почти на 5 процентов, после того как его операционная прибыль и доход в третьем квартале не оправдали ожиданий рынка. С другой стороны, Airbus вошел в число лучших исполнителей с ростом на 2,5 процента после получения заказа на 430 самолетов от Indigo Partners. Altice и Leonardo попали в топ Stoxx 600 в среду, так как обе акции оправились от минимумов, наблюдавшихся на последних сессиях. Bryan Garnier также повысил рейтинг акций Altice до «купить». В других корпоративных новостях Volkswagen сказал, что налоговые органы и прокуратура совершили обыск в офисах финансового директора компании, главы HR и председателя во вторник. Согласно данным Reuters, некоторые файлы и компьютеры были изъяты. Акции автопроизводителя упали на 1 процент. Что касается данных, потребительские цены во Франции выросли на 1,2 процента в октябре на ежегодной основе и на 0,1 процента ежемесячно в соответствии с предварительными оценками. В Великобритании занятость упала больше всего за последние два года в течение июля-сентября, что свидетельствует о том, что Brexit может повлиять на создание рабочих мест в Великобритании, сообщает Reuters. На текущий момент: FTSE 7370.52 -43.90 -0.59% DAX 12858.16 -175.32 -1.35% CAC 5284.13 -31.45 -0.59% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

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12 сентября 2017, 16:23

Renewed hike hopes lift pound to one-year high against dollar as rising inflation tightens the squeeze on UK households 

UK inflation rises to 2.9pc in August; higher than expected and a jump from July's 2.6pc rate  Pound rallies on currency markets as interest rate hike hopes are renewed by the pick-up in inflation Pound at highest level against the dollar in a year; trading 0.7pc higher at $1.3267 FTSE 100 retreats, hurt by the stronger pound; rental firm Ashtead leads the blue-chip leaderboard after saying that it expects a pick-up in demand in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma Housebuilders drop as Redrow boss sells stake in the company, stoking fears that the sector has already peaked UK inflation jumped to 2.9pc in August, the ONS revealed this morning, tightening the squeeze on households already suffering from the gap between rising prices and sluggish wage growth. With inflation well above the Bank of England's 2pc target, the pound soared on currency markets as hopes of an interest rate hike before the end of the year were revived by the figures. The Bank of England will decide on Thursday whether to raise rates in order to curb inflation with today's higher-than-expected pick-up cranking up the pressure on the central bank's policymakers. The ONS said that the fastest rise in clothing and shoe prices in 30 years bumped up the figures but that food inflation slowed, lowering the pressure on the weekly shop. 5:53PM Markets wrap: Inflation pick-up sends pound soaring to one-year high against dollar Today's inflation figure will crank up the pressure on Mark Carney and the Bank of England's MPC The pound has surged to his highest level against the dollar in a year after the ONS revealed that inflation jumped to 2.9pc, cranking up the pressure on Bank of England policymakers to hike interest rates to ease the squeeze on UK households. The markets are now putting the chance of a rate hike before the end of the year at close to a coin flip and the negative effect of the pound's rise on London's big exporters pulled down the FTSE 100 as stocks in the rest of Europe and the US continued to rebound. Housebuilders retreated as investors worried that the sector has reached its peak after directors at Redrow and Berkeley sold big stakes in the space of a few days while rental firm Ashtead rose to the top of the FTSE 100 as it predicted increased earnings from the aftermath of Hurricane Irma. IG market analyst Joshua Mahony said this on today's markets: "This morning’s FTSE gains proved fleeting, as a rise in UK inflation raised the prospect that the Bank of England’s monetary policy makers turn more hawkish. This drew investors into the pound to the detriment of the FTSE 100. "A sharp appreciation in inflation has put greater pressure on the BoE to provide a more hawkish outlook on Thursday, pushing the pound to a one-year high against the dollar." 4:22PM Inflation jumps to 2.9pc as prices for clothes and shoes rise at the fastest rate for 30 years CPI Price rises accelerated in August as costs for clothes, shoes, furniture and telephones all picked up pace. Inflation hit 2.9pc, the Office for National Statistics said, up from 2.6pc in the 12 months to July and the highest level since May, indicating that the fall back in price pressures in June and July may have been a blip in the upward trend. The weak pound has pushed up import prices and that has fed through into costs for shoppers, hitting households in the pocket. Read Tim Wallace's full report here 4:19PM Brent crude pushes past $54 per barrel as OPEC production falls for first time since March Brent crude has jumped 0.7pc today on the report Brent crude has pushed past $54 per barrel this afternoon after fresh data from OPEC showed a fall in production for the first time since March. The oil cartel's output fell by 79,100 in July as it tries to rebalance the market and  reduce the glut of oil stocks weighing on prices. OPEC also forecast higher oil demand in 2018, indicating that a tighter market will support future prices. CMC Markets David Madden commented: "The major oil producers clearly mean business now, as at the start of the summer we saw production actually rise from some members.   "OPEC’s production freeze will last until the end of March 2018, and Saudi Arabia is floating the idea of extending the production cut until the end of June 2018."  #OPEC sees #oil market tightening: Forecasts 2018 demand for its crude will average 32.83 million bpd, up 410,000 bpd vs Aug forecast #OOTTpic.twitter.com/d9wWSKtY5R— Christopher Johnson (@chris1reuters) September 12, 2017 3:59PM Gap between inflation and public sector pay highlighted The Government announced today that the pay cap on police and prison staff had been lifted  Many on social media are highlighting the gap between the jump in inflation to 2.9pc and police officer pay rising below that figure to 2pc. Today's pay increase announcement have been described as "derisory" by the TUC and tomorrow's wage growth figures could bring the subject back into focus again. Wage growth is expected to nudge up to 2.2pc, a 0.1 percentage point increase, in tomorrow's figures, lagging far behind inflation. Probably not your strongest timing Phil. So inflation is 2.9%. Police and prison officers are getting a 2% pay rise. Not an expert but my calculator keeps saying it's a pay cut!— Ian Warren (@election_data) September 12, 2017 Just a little bit of housekeeping to do on the economics front in the US. JOLTS job openings inched up to a fresh record of 6170, ahead of expectations. It hasn't done much to lift the dollar today, however, sterling is still trading 0.7pc higher against the greenback. Markets in the UK have been dominated by this morning's inflation reading, according to Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell. He commented on sterling's rise: "That took the pound to some important markers; cable is now sitting pretty at above $1.326 at a one year peak, while against the euro sterling has climbed to a fresh 6 week high. "These gains had important ramifications for the rest of the markets. First and foremost it prevented the FTSE from joining in with the gains seen elsewhere, instead sending the UK index back below 7400 – if only just – with a 0.1% dip."  3:19PM Murdoch faces broadcasting standards investigation over Fox's £11.7bn takeover of Sky Rupert Murdoch and his sons James and Lachlan are making a second bid for full control of Sky The Murdoch family faces a six-month investigation of their record as broadcasters and commitment to editorial standards following a Government decision that will mean a further delay in their £11.7bn bid to take full control of Sky. The Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said that in light of new representations on 21st Century's Fox's compliance record and its handling of sexual harassment allegations at Fox News, she was minded to trigger a double investigation by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA). A broadcasting standards investigation will run alongside a previously planned probe of the impact of the deal on the public interest in media plurality, amid fears it would grant the Murdochs too much sway over news. Read Christopher Williams' full report here 3:16PM Merger talks that led to 'Clarkson moment' between AA bosses are off Bob Mackenzie CEO of the AA at their London HQ in Covent Garden Merger talks between the AA and insurance rival Hastings, which allegedly led to a Jeremy Clarkson-style brawl between the AA's former chairman and its insurance head are now off, Hastings said Tuesday. While the roadside recovery business confirmed it had spoken to Hastings earlier in the summer about a potential tie-up with its insurance arm, Hastings said in a separate statement that those talks were now off.   That ends a process that caused such a divide between AA's ex-chairman Bob Mackenzie and insurance boss Michael Lloyd that it was allegedly the trigger for a physical fight in a hotel bar earlier this year.  Mr Mackenzie was then sacked for "gross misconduct" in a move that wiped £200m from the AA's value in one day. However his son Peter has refuted the allegations, instead insisting his father resigned due to ill health.  Read Lucy Burton's full report here 2:51PM US stocks nudge up; Apple shares rise ahead of much anticipated iPhone release Apple will unveil the next iPhone at 6pm (BST) US stocks have opened higher at the opening bell in New York, leaving the FTSE 100 the only major index retreating today. The S&P 500, which closed at a record high of 2488.11 yesterday, has continued its ascent and reached a fresh all-time intraday high. With the latest iPhone due to be unveiled at 6pm (BST), Apple shares will be one to keep an eye on this afternoon. Ahead of the much anticipated release, shares are up 0.4pc but are expected to bounce around during the presentation later on. Meanwhile in Europe, the FTSE 100 has stabilised at a 0.4pc loss for the session as the pound dominates on the currency markets but the CAC 40 and DAX are enjoying a 0.6pc jump on rising risk appetite. 2:22PM Is this the top of the market for housebuilders? Redrow share price sinks after chairman sells shares Redrow's share price has sunk more than 8pc The chairman of housebuilder Redrow has sold off part of his stake in the company he founded, spooking investors that he could be calling the top of the market, and sending its share price down more than 8pc. Steve Morgan, who last week announced that he would "ease back" from his executive role this year, sold around a fifth of his 40pc stake in the business. That represents roughly 7pc of the total share capital; he still owns more than a third of Redrow's shares.  It comes a week after the founder and chairman of Berkeley Homes, Tony Pidgley, sold 750,000 shares in the housebuilder, pocketing £26.8m. Despite this selloff he remains the fourth-largest shareholder in the housebuilder. Analysts at Jefferies said that he "still has a lot of skin in the game". Read Isabelle Fraser's full report here 2:11PM Pound only at one-month high against basket of leading currencies Against a basket of the leading global currencies, the pound only hit a one-month high Just a sniff of an interest rate hike is enough to send the pound soaring on currency markets but it's worth bearing in mind that, while sterling has reached a one-year high against the dollar, against a basket of the leading global currencies it is only at a one-month high. A weaker dollar, which has been pulled down this year by the chaos at the White House and fears that sluggish inflation in the US could slow the pace of rate rises, is equally responsible for the recent surge. 1:52PM Leonardo joins bid to provide 'private airforce' for RAF to train against Britain's Typhoon pilots could find themselves battling civilian flown aircraft in mock dogfights Defence group Leonardo has joined a consortium hoping to land a massive contract that ultimately aims to supply a “private air force” for the RAF to train against. The international company’s UK arm has joined forces with Canada’s Discovery Air Defence and Britain’s Inzpire to bid for a contract providing live air training that could be worth as much as £1.5bn. Known as Air Defence and Operational Support (ASDOT), the contract could run for up to 10 years. It is eventually expected see private companies provide “enemy” fighters flown by civilians for RAF pilots to battle in mock dogfights, as well training pilots and servicemen and women in areas such as electronic warfare such as jamming radar signals, and calling in aircraft to launch strikes on the ground targets. Read Alan Tovey's full report here 1:43PM Pound jumps to one-year high against the dollar on interest rate hike hopes The pound has jumped to its highest level against the dollar in a year The pound's surge on the currency markets following the uptick in inflation has lifted it to its highest level against the dollar in a year. The recent economic strength of the eurozone and sterling's summer drift downwards against the euro means that it's only at a one-month high against the currency, however, trading 1pc higher at €1.119. $GBP Core CPI 2.7% in August - and more is on the cards in coming years, unless BoE tightens.. We like short EUR/GBP in to year-end #BoEpic.twitter.com/RwxoOaymU5— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) September 12, 2017 Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, believes the hawks calling for an interest rate hike at the Bank of England will find new impetus from today's figures. He said: "With UK inflation rates finding comfort well above the Bank of England’s 2% target, as the Brexit-fuelled Pound weakness boosts import costs, BoE hawks may make an appearance during Thursday’s policy meeting. While rising inflation is likely to support expectations over the Bank of England raising UK interest rates, it still unclear as to when and how this will occur.   "It should be kept in mind that elevated inflation levels have pressured households this year, and this will continue to negatively impact the outlook of the economy. With wage growth still struggling to keep up with inflation, concerns are mounting over the sustainability of the UK’s consumer-driven economic growth. BoE policy makers are under fresh pressure to take action, and Wednesday’s UK labour market data, which will be in sharp focus, could act as a catalyst for an unexpected surprise this year.   "The big question is, will the jump in UK consumer prices prompt the BoE to raise rates quicker than anticipated?" 1:09PM Competition watchdog clears Amec Foster Wheeler's North Sea sell-off plans The CMA has said that Amec Foster Wheeler’s plan to sell off its North Sea business would be enough to assuage its concerns The Competition and Markets Authority has cleared the way for an oil-services mega-merger after agreeing that Amec Foster Wheeler’s plan to sell off its North Sea business would be enough to assuage its concerns over the Wood Group takeover. The CMA took only one month to review the plans together with feedback from interested parties before approving plans for Amec Foster Wheeler to sell the majority of its North Sea assets and contracts as a package, well before its decision deadline. The pair anticipated the competition concerns surrounding their £2.2bn merger and are understood to have started talks with potential buyers as early as May this year. Both private equity and strategic investors are said to be circling the assets. The takeover raised eyebrows earlier this year amid fears that the pair, which both hold a substantial stake of the North Sea’s oil services market, would be able to wield its dominance to crush market competition. Read Jillian Ambrose's full report here 12:49PM Lunchtime update: Pound soars on currency markets as inflation pick-up renews hike hopes The Bank of England's MPC will meet on Thursday to decide whether to hike rates The pound has soared on the currency markets this morning as the pick-up in inflation to 2.9pc cranked up the pressure on Bank of England policymakers to hike interest rates to ease the squeeze on households. Although the market believes a hike in 2017 is still unlikely, pricing in a 35.6pc chance of a rise before the end of the year, today's rise due to an increase in clothing and shoe prices has renewed hawkish hopes. On the stock market, the pound's rally has punctured the FTSE 100 with housebuilders the biggest losers in London this morning as fears that the sector has reached its peak were stoked by Redrow's chairman selling a stake in the company. Accendo Markets head of research Mike Van Dulken commented on this morning's action: "Equities are mixed this morning, but not for want of underlying risk appetite as recent market take a back seat. While Dow futures and Germany's DAX push further north the FTSE is the odd one out, nursing minor losses, after strong UK inflation data sent the pound higher to the detriment of its significant international exposure.  "The German DAX outperforms thanks to EUR/USD holding around yesterday's 3-day lows, helping industrials/exporters while banks embrace this week's general risk-on mentality. The UK FTSE 100 is just the wrong side of breakeven, hindered by the pound's strength." 12:37PM Gold retreats following strong rally based on geopolitical fears Gold enjoyed a strong rally last week on geopolitical fears but has retreated today Gold prices are suffering a second day of decline as risk appetite returns to normal after markets wobbled on North Korea and Hurricane Irma fears. The price has retreated back down to $1.323.99 per ounce, a 1.7pc decline this week, after rallying last week on the geopolitical fears. Precious metal miners Fresnillo and Randgold Resources, whose share prices are wedded to the price of gold, have fallen to the bottom of the FTSE 100 as a result. 12:07PM SMEs will be hit by pick-up in RPI; house price inflation steady House price inflation has nudged up to 5.1pc Although slightly lost underneath the headline CPI figure this morning, the ONS also revealed that retail price inflation increased to 3.9pc while house price inflation nudged up to 5.1pc, both ahead of expectations. With business rates linked to RPI, SMEs will face higher tax bills as a result of the pick-up. Mike Cherry, Federation of Small Businesses national chairman, said that the pick-up in retail price inflation will make business rates unaffordable. He said: "Today’s increase in inflation will add to cost pressures facing the small business community. Confirmation of this month’s RPI is another huge blow, as it will add almost four percent to every single business rates bill next year.  "It’s hard to understand why the Government insists on using this outdated measure of inflation rather than the more widely accepted CPI, which it has pledged to use from 2020. With a weakening economy, CPI-indexation should be brought forward to 2018." Adrian Moloney, sales director at OneSavings Bank commented that the housing supply shortage is supporting property prices but that buyers continue to "walk a narrow tightrope to home ownership". He added: "On the one hand, strong employment growth and historically low mortgage rates are supporting buyer demand, but on the other, stagnant wage growth is being outstripped by consumer prices, making homes less affordable. "Mortgage approval levels recovered last month, suggesting a small rebound in consumer confidence and affordability, despite the enduring economic unknowns that continue to cloud the long-term view." 11:40AM Redrow chairman stake sale stokes investor jitters Steve Morgan has slashed his stake in Redrow Redrow chairman Steve Morgan selling a significant stake in the company has pulled down the entire housebuilding sector this morning, the sale coming just days after Berekley's boss also reduced his stake. The two stake sales have caused a few jitters among investors fearing that the the housebuilding sector may have reached its peak and soon be on the decline. Taylor Wimpey's 1.9pc fall is one of the sharpest on the FTSE 100 this morning while Redrow's 8.2pc plummet makes it the biggest laggard on the mid-cap index. UBS analyst Miguel Borrega points out that numerous factors will still support growth in the sector: "We highlight the market is now supported by "(1) low interest rates; "(2) structural undersupply; "(3) supportive land market with limited competition allowing for attractive returns; "(4) Government support in the form of Help-to-Buy and planning reform." Anthony Codling, an analyst at Jefferies, commented that he did not believe that " the silverback alpha males in the sector are calling the top of the market" through their stake disposals. 11:08AM Tasty issues unappetising update with fears about consumer spending squeeze extending into next year Trading conditions have become tough in the restaurant sector with various cost pressures hitting at a time of reduced consumer confidence Tough trading conditions in the restaurant sector have prompted operator Tasty to take a multi-million pound write-down on some of its sites as it predicted the consumer spending squeeze would extend into 2018. The owner of the Wildwood and dim t chains of restaurants said the entire sector had been suffering a slowdown since the beginning of 2017 and that this was set to continue into next year. “This is not unique to the group or any particular area but appears to be a nationwide problem, particularly evident in London, and has impacted turnover and profit,” said chairman Keith Lassman. These fears appear to have spooked shareholders with the stock down nearly 11pc to 37.5p in early trading. While total sales rose nearly 12pc to £24.3m for the six months to July 2, this was entirely down to new openings. Read Bradley Gerrard's full report here 10:51AM Inflation rise reaction: what the experts say UK inflation rose to 2.9% in August, extending the decline in real wages. Only increased indebtedness keeps consumption from declining pic.twitter.com/dsmcoSPogT— Ulrik Bie (@UlrikBie) September 12, 2017 Let's have a quick round-up on what the experts are saying on today's spike in inflation. We'll begin with Howard Archer, chief economic advisor at the EY ITEM club, who believes that inflation should be close to its peak. He said: "Sterling’s past sharp drop should have now largely fed through the pricing chain. Meanwhile, ongoing slow earning growth and lacklustre economic activity should limit domestic inflationary price pressures. Additionally, oil prices remain relatively low.   "Consequently, we believe there is a strong chance that CPI will be back to 2% by the end of 2018." Nomura sticking by its out-of-consensus call for a UK rate hike in November after today's inflation comes in higher than expected.— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) September 12, 2017 Investec economist Philip Shaw commented that this rise shouldn't be enough to move MPC members on interest rates. He said: "Our feeling is still that the MPC will be reluctant to tighten policy until it sees firm evidence that pay growth is strengthening well above the prevailing pace of close to 2%. We view this to be unlikely until the economy gains a degree of traction and there is less uncertainty over the UK’s post-Brexit arrangements. "Partly on this judgement we still see the committee maintaining the current stance of policy until 2019. July’s earnings data, plus other labour market metrics, are due tomorrow and it will be interesting to see the importance the MPC places on them when the minutes to the meeting are published on Thursday." Also here's our economic correspondent Tim Wallace's full report on this morning's figures.  10:26AM Housebuilders fall on Redrow stake sale and bearish sector note Housebuilder Redrow $RDW shares take a dive after chairman's charitable trust sells out at 590p, vs yesterday's closing price of 633p pic.twitter.com/xMKQel0DHB— Ian Smith (@iankmsmith) September 12, 2017 That spike in the pound has turned a stagnant session for the FTSE 100 into a negative one with the index now 0.2pc lower. Housebuilders are taking the biggest beating in London this morning with Redrow diving over 8pc after its chairman Steve Morgan sold a huge stake in the FTSE 250 company. The share placing and a bearish note on the sector from Bank of America Merrill Lynch hinting that housebuilders might have hit their peak already has pulled pulled down the FTSE 100 housebuilders with Taylor Wimpey, Barratt Developments and Persimmon all retreating just under 2pc. IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said on the housebuilders' fall this morning: "Despite further evidence of UK house price growth, housebuilder shares have taken a knock  this morning as the chairman of Redrow takes the opportunity to offload some of his stake, in the wake of a bounce in the shares last week. "Given the near 50% appreciation in the shares from January until the end of last week, it doesn’t seem like a sign that the top is near, and in all likelihood there will be plenty of buyers keen to snap up some shares at a cheaper price than seen of late." 10:06AM Inflation rise reaction: Sterling depreciation will fall out of the year-on-year calculation soon ����#UK CPI #inflation was 2.9% in August => real wage squeze => sluggish #GDP growth pic.twitter.com/p4IxzmT44W— Danske Bank Research (@Danske_Research) September 12, 2017 CABLE doing a runner here on UK inflation data on read to Thurs #BoE mtg as both CPI & PPI above expects, GBPUSD last 1.3266 #CABLE#GBPUSDpic.twitter.com/6TZo4jOW1q— stephen garrett (@sgarret13) September 12, 2017 Today's inflation pick-up is slightly higher than the Bank of England's own 2.7pc estimate and way ahead of the central bank's 2pc target but Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, believes that that 2.9pc could be inflation's peak as sterling's weakness soon falls out of the year-on-year calculation. Mr Brettell added that the long-term inflationary pressures are still absent: "Beyond the currency effect there appear to be few underlying inflationary pressures. Labour costs are the main factor in domestic inflation, and growth here remains below long-term averages. Productivity growth is sluggish, and technological changes look to be suppressing wages, with the likes of Uber, Amazon and Netflix disrupting traditional industries.   "Furthermore we need to consider demographics. The baby boomers are retiring in their droves. They have already gone through their consumption phase – they have bought their houses, cars and consumer goods. The generation behind them is saddled with debt and struggling to get on the housing ladder.   "All in all I see more deflationary forces than inflationary in the world economy at present." 9:46AM Inflation key takeaways  Contributions to the CPIH 12-month rate   Inflation rose to 2.9pc in August, up from 2.6pc the previous month and higher than the expected 2.8pc increase. Rising prices for clothing and motor fuel were the main contributors to the pick-up. Air fares rose between July and August but the smaller rise compared to last year weighed on inflation. Renewed hike hopes push pound up to $1.3250 against the dollar, a 0.5pc advance, and €1.1077 against the euro, a 0.6pc gain. 9:33AM UK inflation picks up to 2.9pc, higher than expected Bank of England governor Mark Carney UK inflation rose to 2.9pc in August, figures just released by the ONS have revealed, up from 2.6pc the previous month and higher than the expected 2.8pc pick-up.  The increase lifting hawkish hopes of a rate rise has pushed the pound up on currency markets. It's now trading 0.5pc higher against the dollar at $1.3237. 9:18AM UK inflation preview: what the experts say RBC on UK inflation: Look for 2.8% Y/Y as a reflection of GBP depreciation. Exp. CPI to peak at 3.1% in October before pulling back in 2018— RANsquawk (@RANsquawk) September 12, 2017 Let's have a quick round-up of what analysts are saying before this morning's figures. CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson describes last year's emergency change in monetary policy after the EU referendum as a "self-inflicted wound". He added: "There is a risk that we could see an uptick in the August CPI numbers to 2.8%, largely as a result of last year’s decision by the Bank of England to cut rates to 0.25%, and embark on further QE, which prompted further sterling weakness into the back end of 2016, a self-inflicted wound if ever there was one.   "An increase in petrol prices at the pump could prompt a slight uptick in the monthly number to 0.6% from 0.2%, but it still seems likely that we’ve seen the highs in inflationary pressure this year, barring a surprise. The steady decline in input prices since the beginning of the year, from 20% in January to 6.5% in July also suggests inflationary pressure is on the decline, though we could also see a bit of an August uptick here too with expectations of an increase to 7.3%." Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell points out that the MPC were unmoved when inflation peaked in May: "How much of a boost the currency could get from such a reading is perhaps up for debate. The Bank of England was reluctant to hike rates at that aforementioned May high, and it’s unlikely they’ll be moved by anything lower. "However, it would still be a move in the right direction, helping to explain why the pound is up 0.3% against the dollar and 0.2% against the euro."  9:09AM UK inflation preview: weaker-than-expected figure would hurt the pound  6. And... 1) UK inflation not wildly different to peers 2) Energy contributions are global & overlooked 3) Core is still the one to watch pic.twitter.com/SS4cpHi5t9— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) September 12, 2017 Weaker-than-expected inflation and patchy growth indicators for the UK economy have somewhat punctured hawkish hopes of an interest rate rise over the summer but could that impetus be revived today? With only three MPC meetings before the end of the year, the markets have put the chance of a rise in 2017 at just 28pc. A third consecutive month of weaker-than-expected figures hurting hike hopes would pull down the pound even if it does point to a healthier economy, according to Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG. He said "So far this year, the pound has tended to strengthen following stronger than expected UK inflation reports and vice versa which have driven expectations for BoE monetary tightening. "While weaker than expected inflation would also be more favourable for the UK growth outlook, the market has not been willing to reward the pound in that manner." 9:01AM UK inflation preview: CPI expected to rise to 2.8pc; figures have been softer than expected over the summer 3. Oil price inflation suggests that there's still another month or two left of relief from UK transport & energy price inflation. pic.twitter.com/NhbbfMIgRC— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) September 12, 2017 Will the squeeze on households continue to ease or will inflation pick-up where it left off before the summer?  Economists are expecting today's inflation data to show a rise back up to 2.8pc but recent figures have been unexpectedly soft.  The Bank of England is currently forecasting inflation to peak at 3pc later this year but that surprise slowdown to 2.6pc in June and July has dampened the clamour for a rate rise. Only two members of the current line-up on the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee have voted for a hike, external members Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders, but BoE chief economist Andy Haldane did admit earlier in the summer that he favoured a rate rise at some point this year. New MPC member and BoE deputy governor Sir David Ramsden's voting intentions are unknown but it is thought he won't rock the boat early on. 8:27AM Agenda: Pound shows no pre-match nerves ahead of key inflation data Mark Carney and the MPC have voted against hiking interest rates to curb high inflation The squeeze on UK households is expected to get a little tighter this morning when the latest inflation figures from the ONS drop. Economists believe UK CPI in August picked-up to 2.8pc after cooling off for the previous two months, mainly due to temporary factors. The latest RPI and PPI figures also due at 9.30am kick off this week's trio of key macro releases with wage growth data and the Bank of England's 'Super Thursday' scheduled in the coming days. Ahead of the data, the pound is showing no nerves on the currency markets, jumping higher against the dollar to flirt with the $1.32 mark. Asia stock mkts hit 10y highs on Irma and N Korea relief led by exportes & tech. Dollar rises on higher US yields, yuan hampered by Beijing pic.twitter.com/KXDX4j6rdl— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 12, 2017 Equipment rental firm Ashtead has climbed to the top of a stagnant FTSE 100 early on with the blue-chip silent giant saying in its interims this morning that it expects demand for its services to pick-up in the clean-up efforts following the two hurricanes in the US and Caribbean. Meanwhile on the FTSE 250, JD Sports has surged over 9pc after reporting record first half profit. The "athleisurewear" store now expects full-year figures to be at the upper end of market expectations. Interim results: JD Sports Fashion, TyraTech, SafeCharge International Group Limited, ADES International Holding, Hydrogen Group, Flowtech Fluidpower, Midwich Group, Tasty, Hilton Food Group, STM Group, Servelec Group, IQE, Goals Soccer Centres, Manx Telecom, TP Group, Smart Metering Systems, Ashtead Group Full-year results: Murgitroyd Group, InnovaDerma, Vernalis AGM: EF Realisation Company, Limitless Earth, Aew UK Reit, Supergroup, Liontrust Asset Management, Daejan Holdings, Mulberry Group, Bushveld Minerals, Oxford Instruments, Van Elle Holdings, Ashtead Group, Emmerson Economics: CPI y/y (UK), HPI y/y (UK), RPI y/y (UK), PPI Input m/m (UK), NFIB Small Business Index (US), Federal Budget Balance (US)

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12 июля 2017, 18:47

Barratt Developments: peak learnings

The housebuilder is a different company since the previous market high

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12 июля 2017, 13:30

Основные фондовые индексы Европы растут

Европейские биржи выросли в среду утром, так как инвесторы оценивали корпоративные отчеты о доходах и ожидали комментарии председателя Федеральной резервной системы Джанет Йеллен. Общеевропейский Stoxx 600 вырос на 0,31 процента, при этом почти все сектора торгуются в плюсе. Медиа-сектор торговался с понижением на четверть процента. Книгоиздатель Pearson не смог компенсировать убытки, понесенные в понедельник, когда объявил о планах реструктуризации и остался в нижней части европейского индекса, снизившись на 5,3 процента в утренних торгах в среду. Нефтегазовый сектор вырос более чем на три четверти процента, чему способствовал рост цен на нефть. Нефть Brent выросла на 1,62 процента и составила 48,29 доллара за баррель, а сырая нефть в США - на 1,89 процента и составила 45,87 доллара за баррель. ОПЕК объявила во вторник, что объем добычи нефти в июне вырос более чем на 300 000 баррелей в день, что было вызвано тем, что две страны вышли из сделки по сокращению предложения. JD Wetherspoon сообщила о том, что во втором квартале этого года объем сопоставимых продаж вырос на 5,3 процента, что привело к росту акций почти на один процент. Производитель предметов роскоши Burberry также объявил о повышении базовых доходов, которые выросли на 3 процента. На новостях акции выросли на 3,2 процента. Строитель Barratt Developments вырос на 1,6 процента после сообщения о прибыли до налогообложения в размере 765 миллионов фунтов стерлингов (980 миллионов фунтов стерлингов). Инжиниринговая компания Amec Foster заняла место в нижней части европейского индекса после того, как выяснилось, что она была целью покупки от John Wood Group. Акции Amec снизились на 7,2 процента, а котировки John Wood упали на 5,8 процента. Председатель Федеральной резервной системы США Джанет Йеллен намерена представить свой отчет о денежно-кредитной политике о состоянии крупнейшей в мире экономики. Также в новостях из Северной Америки Банк Канады, как ожидается, впервые повысит процентные ставки почти за семь лет. Это сделало бы Канаду первым крупным центральным банком, который последует за США, исходя из механизма денежного стимулирования, реализованного после финансового кризиса 2008 года. Между тем, главные европейские лидеры, в том числе президент Франции Эммануэль Макрон, канцлер Германии Ангела Меркель и президент Еврокомиссии Жан-Клод Юнкер, примут участие в саммите Западных Балкан в Италии в среду, на котором будут обсуждаться экономическое сотрудничество и усилия по борьбе с коррупцией. На конференции Международного валютного фонда в Дубровнике, Хорватия, управляющий директор Кристин Лагард рассказала о силе Европейского союза после голосования в Великобритании о выход из блока чуть больше года назад. «Удивительно видеть, что существующие члены ЕС внезапно оживают, обновляют и воссоздают», - сообщила она CNBC во вторник. На текущий момент FTSE 7399.47 69.71 0.95% DAX 12519.97 82.95 0.67% CAC 5187.70 47.10 0.92% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

14 июня 2017, 13:34

Основные фондовые индексы Европы растут

Европейские рынки в среду повысились, так как инвесторы с осторожностью ожидали последнего решения по денежно-кредитной политике Федрезерва США. Общеевропейский индекс Stoxx 600 вырос на 0,5 процента, при этом большинство секторов торгуются на положительной территории. Акции Tech выросли в начале торгов, поскольку они оправились от крупной распродажи ранее на этой неделе. Акции сектора основных ресурсов также выросли после новостей о том, что китайская фирма Fosun предложит более 224,6 млн. фунтов стерлингов (287 млн. долл. США) для горнодобывающей компании Gemfields, зарегистрированной в Лондоне, сообщает Reuters. Таким образом, акции выросли на 9 процентов. Шведская фирма Hexagon была на вершине европейского индекса в ранних сделках, повысивши свою капитализацию на 16 процентов. Это произошло после сообщения о том, что компания по производству программному обеспечению вела переговоры о продаже себя конкуренту в сделке, оценивающей компанию примерно в 20 миллиардов долларов. Согласно Wall Street Journal, Hexagon может в конечном итоге решить не продолжать продажу. Британский домостроитель Bellway также был одним из наиболее эффективных исполнителей в среду, после того, как был подтвержден с повышением торговый оборот. Акции компании упали после всеобщих выборов в Великобритании, но в среду заявили, что они не ожидают охлаждения спроса из-за голосования. Фактически, ожидается, что строительство за полный год увеличится почти на 10 процентов, а операционная маржа на весь год будет чуть выше 22 процентов, сообщает Reuters. В то же время другие конкуренты также выросли, а акции Taylor Wimpey и Barratt Developments выросли примерно на 1,7 процента. Британская авиакомпания Easyjet также повысилась на 2,5 процента в среду после повышения рейтинга. Инвесторы ожидают, что ФРС повысит ставки, но что более важно, они будут следить за комментариями о будущем пути центрального банка. Решение будет озвучено в 18:00 GMT. Между тем, политика по-прежнему остается в центре внимания. В США генеральный прокурор Джефф Сессионс сказал, что это была «отвратительная ложь» относительно идеи, которая заключалась в том, что он сговорился с российскими властями, чтобы вмешиваться в исход президентских выборов. Кроме того, более 190 демократических законодателей подали в суд на президента Дональда Трампа, обвинив его в получении средств от иностранных правительств через его фирмы и, таким образом, в нарушении конституции. В Европе президент Франции Эммануэль Макрон сказал премьер-министру Терезии Мэй, что Великобритании будут рады в составе ЕС, если она изменит свое мнение. Похоже, что новое правительство Великобритании придерживается менее жесткого подхода к Брекзиту с момента проведения всеобщих выборов. В корпоративном мире глава немецкой антимонопольной комиссии отклонил планы правительства по спасению AirBerlin. На текущий момент FTSE 7534.62 34.18 0.46% DAX 12843.68 78.70 0.62% CAC 5311.77 50.03 0.95% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

09 июня 2017, 11:53

Фондовые индексы крупнейших экономик Европы растут в пятницу

Рынки акций крупнейших экономик Европы растут в пятницу, инвесторы оценивают результаты выборов в Великобритании.

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10 мая 2017, 10:04

Barratt Developments rises 2.3% after 2017 outlook

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