08 ноября, 15:08

A Key Treasury Yield Spread Narrows To Lowest Level In A Decade

A widely followed measure of the Treasury yield curve dipped on Tuesday (Nov. 7) to its flattest level in a decade, based on daily data published by Treasury.gov. The gap between the 10-year and 2-year rates fell to 69 basis points yesterday – the lowest since Nov. 2007. The flatter yield curve follows in the […]

07 ноября, 17:42

Stock and Awe, Bears in Bondage

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The following article by David Haggith was published on The Great Recession Blog: The Trump Rally pushed ahead relentlessly through a summer full of high omens and great disasters, all which it swatted off like flies. Even so, all was not perfect in the market as nerves began to jitter midsummer beneath the surface even among the most longtime bulls. Wall Street’s fear gauge (the CBOE Volatility Index) lifted its needle off its lower post to a nine-month high after President Trump’s comments about “fire and fury” if North Korea didn’t toe the line. (Mind you, the high wasn’t very far off the post because of how placid the previous nine months had been.) As volatility stirred languidly over the threat of nuclear war, stock prices took a little spill with all major stock indices seeing their biggest one-day drop since May. The SPX fall amounted to a 1.4% drop in a day — nothing damaging. The Dow dropped about 1% in a day. But beneath the surface, the market is looking different and shakier. For example, trading narrowed to fewer players as more stocks in the Nasdaq 100 finally moved below their fifty-two week lows than moved above them. Likewise in the S&P. This phenomenon is known as the “Hindenburg omen,” and tends to precede major crashes.     It’s a serious signal that highlights times of decoupling within an index or an exchange. The S&P hasn’t suffered five signals so tightly clustered since 2007 and 2000…. This year the pattern has been popping up more often in all four indexes … 74 omens so far in 2017, second only to 78 recorded in November 2007…. That they are manifesting in several indexes and forming so frequently are good reasons to brace for weakness. (MarketWatch)   Long credit cycles like the current one always end with a crash. But first they deteriorate. The headline numbers remain positive while under the surface a growing list of sectors start to falter. It’s only when the latter reach a critical mass that market psychology turns dark. How far along is this process today? Pretty far, it seems, as some high-profile industries roll over: ‘Deep’ Subprime Car Loans Hit Crisis-Era Milestone…. Used Car Prices Crash To Lowest Level Since 2009 Amid Glut Of Off-Lease Supply…. Junk Bonds Slump…. The worst is yet to come for retail stocks, says former department store executive Jan Kniffen…. U.S. Stock Buybacks Are Plunging…. “Perhaps over-leveraged U.S. companies have finally reached a limit on being able to borrow simply to support their own shares.” (–John Rubino, The Daily Coin)   The fact is that the market is breaking down beneath the shrinking number of Big Cap stocks and levitating averages. This has all set-up a severe downside shock within the coming weeks. As to the market’s weakening internals, consider that there are 2,800 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Back in early 2013 when the bull market was still being super-charged with massive QE purchases by the Federal Reserve, 85% or 2,380 of them were above their 200-DMA. By contrast, currently only 1,050 of them (37.5%) are above that level, meaning that the bull is getting very tired. (–David Stockman, The Daily Reckoning)     Trading shifted this summer from the major players (often called the “smart money”) buying to smaller buyers trying to jump in, which is also the typical final scenario before a crash where the smart money escapes by finding chumps who fear missing some of the big rush that has been happening. And buybacks seem to be slumping as corporations hope for a new source of cash from Trump’s corporate tax breaks. In spite of those underlying signs of stress, the market easily relaxed back into its former stupor, with the fear gauge quickly recalibrating, from that point on, to absorb threats and disasters with scarcely a blip as the new norm. The market now yawns at nuclear war, hurricanes and wildfires, having established a whole new threshold of incredulity or apathy, so the fear gauge stirs no more. With the New York Stock Exchange eclipsed by the larger number of shares that now exchange hands inside “dark pools” — private stock markets housed inside some of Wall Street’s biggest casinos (banks) where the biggest players trade large blocks of stocks in secret during overnight hours —  the average guy won’t see the next crash when it begins to happen. He’ll just awaken to find out it has happened … just like much of the nation woke one Monday to find out that northern California had gone up in flames over the weekend.   Bulls starting to sound bearish   While concern over these national catastrophes never came close to letting the bears out of their cages, it did change the dialogue at the top as if something was beginning to smell … well … a little dead under the covers. Perhaps these slight and temporary tremors in the market are all the warning we can expect in a market that is now almost entirely run by robots and inflated by central bank largesse. While the bearish voices quoted above can be counted on to sound bearish, many of the big and normally bullish investors and advisors became more bearish in tone as summer rolled into fall. For the first time in years, Pimco expressed worries about top-heavy asset valuations, particularly in stocks and junk bonds, advising its clients in August to trim risk from their portfolios. Pimco argued that that the new central bank move toward reversing QE could leave equities high and dry as the long high tide of liquidity slowly ebbs. Pimco’s former CEO said much the same:   Bill Gross … perhaps the preimminent bond market analysts/ trader/ investor of the age… has gone on record as stating only just recently that the risks of equity ownership are as high as they were in ’08, and that at this point when buying weakness “instead of buying low and selling high, you’re buying high and crossing your fingers.” (Zero Hedge)   Goldman Sachs even took the rare position that the stock market had a 99% chance that it would not continue to rise in the near future, and places the likelihood of a bear market by year’ send at 67%, prompting them to ask “”should we be worried now?” The last two times Goldman’s bear market indicator was this high were right before the dot-com crash and right before the Great Recession. In fact, there has only been one time since 1960 when it has been this high without a bear market following within 2-3 months. Of course, everything is different under central-bank rigging, but some central banks are promising to start pulling the rug out from under the market in synchronous fashion, starting last month. (Though, as of the Fed’s own latest balance sheet shows, they have failed to deliver on their promise, cutting only half as much by the close of October as they said they would.) Morgan Stanley’s former chief economist said at the start of fall that the combination of high valuations and rising interest rates is about to reck havoc in the market. He claimed the Fed’s commitment to normalization should have come much earlier, as the market now looks as frothy as it did just before the Great Recession. Citi now calculates the odds of a major market correction before the end of the year at 45% likelihood. Even Well’s Fargo now predicts a market drop of up to 8% by year’s end. Speaking of big banks, their stocks look particularly risky. Two years ago, Dick Bove was advising investors to buy major banks stocks aggressively. Now, he’s taken a strikingly bearish tone on the banks:   A highly-respected banking stock guru warns that financial storm clouds loom for Wall Street’s bull rally. The Vertical Group’s Richard Bove “warns that the overall market is just as dangerous as the late 1990s, and he cites momentum — not fundamentals — as what’s driving bank stocks to all-time highs,” CNBC.com explains. “If we don’t get some event in the economy or in politics or in somewhere that is going to create more loan volume and better margins for the banks, then yes, they would come crashing down,” Bove told CNBC. “I think that the risk in these stocks is very high at the present time,” he said. (NewsMax)   It’s a taxing wait for the market   These are all major institutions and people who are normally quite bullish. Some of the tonal change is because of concern about the Fed’s Great Unwind of QE, while much is because enthusiasm over Trump’s promised tax cuts has become muted among investors deciding to wait and see, having been burned by a long and futile battle on Obamacare. In fact, the market showed more interest in Fed Chair Yellen’s suggestion of a December interest-rate hike than in Trump’s release of a tax plan. Retiring Republican Senator Bob Corker predicts the fighting over tax reform will make the attempt to rescind Obamacare look like a cakewalk, and he intends to lead the fight as one of the swing voters to make sure it is not a cakewalk now that he and Trump are political enemies. The Dow took a 1% drop in the summer when Bannon was terminated so that anti-establishment resellers felt they were losing the battle and when the Republican government seemed deadlocked on all tax-related issues, which it still may be. On the bright side, with Mitch McConnel’s Luther Strange losing his senate race and Bob Corker quitting, anti-establishment forces appear to be gaining a little power. That’s, at least, something. On the other hand, Trump has just chosen an establishment man to run the Fed, and Trump, who once ridiculed Janet Yellen for propping up Obama’s economy with low interest rates, said a few days ago,   I also met with Janet Yellen, who I like a lot. I really like her a lot.   President Trump’s new Federal Reserve chair, Jerome “Jay” Powell, “a low interest-rate kind of guy,” was obviously picked because he is Janet Yellen minus testicles, the grayest of gray go-along Fed go-fers, going about his life-long errand-boy duties in the thickets of financial lawyerdom like a bustling little rodent girdling the trunks of every living shrub on behalf of the asset-stripping business that is private equity…. Powell’s contribution to the discourse of finance was his famous utterance that the lack of inflation is “kind of a mystery….” Unless you consider that all the “money” pumped out of the Fed and the world’s other central banks flows through a hose to only two destinations: the bond and stock markets, where this hot-air-like “money” inflates zeppelin-sized bubbles that have no relation to on-the-ground economies where real people have to make things and trade things…. The “narrative” is firmest before it its falseness is proved by the turn of events, and there are an awful lot of events out there waiting to present, like debutantes dressing for a winter ball. The debt ceiling… North Korea… Mueller… Hillarygate….the state pension funds….That so many agree the USA has entered a permanent plateau of exquisite prosperity is a sure sign of its imminent implosion. What could go wrong? (–James Howard Kunstler)   Powell doesn’t sound like a man who sees a need for change in the current Fed programming, but he is the very best Trump could think of for carrying out his desire to make America great again.   Bulls still climbing to dizzying heights   While some of the leading bulls have started sounding like bears of late, the bulls still lead the bears by more than 4:1, and investors remain in love with technology almost as much as they were before the dot-com crash. ”Still, as Sir John Templeton famously said,   Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.   We are clearly in the euphoric stage where the market just cannot stop itself from rising. It’s been a year-long euphoria now as the Trump Rally, which stalled for some time midyear, found a second wind. It is now on track to soon become the greatest rally in 85 years. You have to go back to FDR and the recovery from the Great Depression to find anything greater. No euphoria there, given that is all based on tax cuts that have as much likelihood of failing as the Obamacare repeal had. What is peculiarly interesting at present is the euphoria over volatility itself. Look at the following two graphs: (The first indicates what is happening in terms of market volatility. The second shows where people are betting volatility will go from here.)       The CBOE Volatility Index dove 8% last Friday to close the week just a hair’s breadth above its lowest volatility record ever! So, at a time when volatility in the stock market is essentially as low as it has ever gone, bets that volatility will go lower have risen astronomically. Yeah, that makes sense. Essentially, hoards of investors are so certain that volatility is down for the count that they are betting it will practically cease to exist months from now. As Mauldin Economics has argued, we are now, among all our other bubbles, in a volatility bubble. Such low volatility when the market is priced to its peak means market investors see no risk even at such a high top and even in an environment that has been literally plagued for months by external risks from hurricanes to wildfires to endless threats of nuclear annihilation by a lunatic. That’s because all investors know the market will stay up for as long as the Federal Reserve chooses to keep propping it up. Investors must not be taking the Fed’s threat of subtracting that support seriously, or they are choosing to stay in to the last crest of the last wave and then all hoping to be the first ones out before the wave crashes. Is that rational or irrational euphoria? This market is not just notable for how long its low-volatility euphoria has gone on but also for how low the volume of trades have been. We are almost at a point of no volatility and no volume. That means nobody is selling stocks if they don’t get a higher price, but there aren’t many buying either. The few companies whose stocks are pushing the market up are trading less and less. That trend holds in both the US and Europe. European trading volume is its lowest in five years; and in the US, it is 22% below last year and still falling. That things are so calm in the middle of global nuclear threats, devastating hurricanes and wildfires and constant political chaos on the American scene and with such a do-nothing congress strikes me as surreal. The Wall Street Journal concludes,   The collapse in trading volumes is closely tied to the recent fall in volatility, where measures of daily stock price movements have plumbed multiyear lows. When markets aren’t moving, there are typically fewer people scrambling to protect their portfolios against further losses or seizing an opportunity to buy things that look cheap.” (The Wall Street Journal)   What does it mean; where do we go from here?   Even the WSJ says it isn’t sure what this low-volatility/low-volume stasis means. I have to wonder if the market will reach such a lull in volatility that everyone just sits there, looking at each other, wondering who will be the first to move again. Is that finally the moment panic breaks in? Even the Journal wonders if the eery calm means investors have simply become so bullish they refuse to sell. Or is it that everyone is already in the market who wants in at current prices now that the Fed has stopped QE and is now even reversing it. Is the lull extreme narrowing happening because there is no longer excess new money in the market to invest but no one scared enough to drop their price and sell? Is there no money that wants in at current prices and under the current knowledge that money supply will now be deflating for the first time in years? Is this the way the unwind of QE starts to suck money back out of the market … by reducing the number of interested traders to a thin trickle while the fewer number of interested players who do have money to invest keep bidding up prices? If you’re already in this hyper-inflated market, where earnings only look good on a per-share basis because companies keep spending a fortune buying back shares, then you may see no reason to sell; but, if you’ve been sitting on the side with a pocketful of cash, it may look awfully late in the game to jump in. (Consider also that growth in earnings throughout the first half of 2017 was easy to show because it compared to the first half of 2016, where earnings were terrible. Now the climb in earnings has to steepen in order to show growth year on year.) So what if the tax reform that everything seems to be depending on flops? Charles Gaparino warns,   If tax reform bellyflops the way ObamaCare repeal did, many smart analysts are coming to the conclusion that the market will turn sour. Without tax cuts, one Wall Street executive told me, “the markets will drop like a rock….” This is a significant change in investor attitudes…. As much as stock values represent economic and corporate fundamentals, they also represent raw emotion known as the “herd mentality.” And that mentality, according to the investors I speak to, has begun to shift in recent weeks…. The market mentality that once said anything is better for the markets than Hillary is now saying to the president and Congress: Deliver on those promised tax cuts or face the consequences. And they won’t be pretty.(The New York Post)   Evidence of how reactive the market will be if tax cuts are less than expected came a couple of weeks ago when the Russel 2000 fell the most it has since August on news that the Republicans’ proposed corporate cuts would be phased in over a period of years. That demonstrated that the Trump Rally is mostly about the tax cuts; they are fully priced in; so, if the tax cuts fail or even get dragged out over years, the market fails. With savings way down, personal debt extremely high, corporate debt quite high, and central banks threatening to reduce liquidity, consumption will have no means of support if asset prices also fall; so, the whole broader consumer-based economy goes back down if the stock market fails. Of course, central banks will revert to more QE if that happens; but each round of QE has been less effective dollar-for-dollar. And where have we arrived under complete Republican leadership in the midst of all this? As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget stated,   Republicans in Congress laid out two visions in two budgets for our fiscal future, and today, they choose the path of gimmicks, debt, and absolutely zero fiscal restraint over the one of responsibility and balance. While the original House budget balanced on paper and offered some real savings, the Senate’s version accepted today by the House fails to reach balance, enacts a pathetic $1 billion in spending cuts out of a possible $47 trillion, and allows for $1.5 trillion to be added to the national debt…. The GOP is now on-the-record as supporting trillions in new debt for the sake of tax cuts over tax reform…. “Tax cuts do not pay for themselves; they can create growth, but in the amount of tenths of percentage points, not whole percentage points. And they certainly cannot fill in trillions in lost revenue. Relying on growth projections that no independent forecaster says will happen isn’t the way to do tax reform. (TalkMarkets)   This is progress? The Republicans are proving month after wearying month they are incapable of doing everything they have sworn for years they would do if they were in power. They could complain as an obstructionist body about the other sides, but they have no solutions they can agree on. The Republican answer in the budget and tax plan that have just come out guarantees mountains of additional debt as far as the eye can see … with the perennial promise that cuts will eventually be made in some distant future by a congress that will not in any way be beholden to the wishes and slated demands of the present congress. (Always tax cuts now, spending cuts promised to be made by other people far down the road.) If the program passes, however, it will shore up the stock market which has been banking entirely on that possibility; but at the cost of deeper economic structural problems to be solved (as always) by others later on. If it doesn’t pass, you do the math as to what that likely means for all the underlying weaknesses presented above when huge tax breaks are already baked into stock prices. If you want to see whether or not tax cuts have EVER created sustained economic growth, read the last article linked above, but here is a chart from that article for a quick representation of the truth:  

11 октября, 18:55

"It Is Pretty Rare That Emerging Markets See This Type Of Euphoria"

For all "doom and gloom" predictions of an imminent crash in Emerging Markets (here and here, among many others), not only have these not materialized, but as of last week the average yield on corporate junk bonds issued by emerging markets dropped to 5.53% late last week, the lowest on record, according to the WSJ citing J.P. Morgan. Indicatively, two years ago, that yield was over 9%. For a case study of the yield-chasing insanity unleashed by central bankers, look no further than Tajikistan. The central Asian country last month raised $500 million in its first-ever international bond sale, paying just 7.125% in annual interest on the debt after the U.S.-dollar offering drew a swarm of American and European buyers. Bankers had earlier shopped the 10-year bonds from the former Soviet satellite with an 8% yield, which was pulled down by strong investor demand. The reason for the scramble into any piece of yielding debt, even Tajik junk bonds is simple: as the IMF shows today in its latest financial stability report, there are virtually no IG bonds left with yields above 4%, and in the junk bonds space, whether in the US or offshore, it isn't much better. But whatever the reason (and, spoiler alert, central bank and especially ECB nationalization of the bond market is what is causing this), the outcome is clear, and as the WSJ notes, "investors’ thirst for income is enabling governments and companies in some of the world’s poorest countries to sell debt at lower and lower interest rates. Greece, which was on the brink of default a few years ago, issued new bonds this past summer, and the country’s National Bank launched a bond sale Tuesday, marking the return of Greek banks to the credit markets since the country’s sovereign-debt crisis." The numbers are staggering, junk bond issuance in the developing world has hit a record $221 billion this year, already up 60% from the full-year total in 2016. For buyers, the numbers don't matter however: the justify the record purchases by claiming that the debt "pays a healthy yield and carries few immediate risks." Furthermore, they claim that "the global economy appears robust and emerging-market defaults are low. Bankers say they expect emerging markets to sell tens of billions of dollars in new junk bonds by year-end." And why not: with billions in IG debt yielding negative, and "high yield" having become a laughable misnomer, investors desperate for any yield will go wherever it exists. Even in Tajikistan. Still, the euphoria is worrying some investors, who warn that frenzied buying of risky assets sometimes presages market turning points. One such worrier is Wilbur Matthew of Vaquero Global Investments, who told the WSJ that “while I am not shouting the end is near, it is normally pretty far down the line that emerging markets start to see this type of euphoria.” He said he has been selling some riskier debt to buy higher-rated bonds and securities that mature sooner. But back to Tajikistan's oversubscribed issuance: its bonds were rated B- by S&P, with the ratings firm estimating the country’s GDP per capita at $900, putting it among the lowest of the sovereign nations it rates, but said it sees Tajikistan’s growth prospects improving gradually. Of course, that sale followed the previously discussed June bond-market debut of the Maldives, a tiny nation in the Indian Ocean that raised $200 million in a sale of five-year bonds with a 7% coupon. “Investors are very bullish on bonds from emerging markets and very keen to diversify into new names,” said Peter Charles, a Citibank managing director who handled the Tajikistan bond sale. The country plans to use some of the proceeds to finance a power plant project. To be sure, not everyone rushed at the opportunity to hand over other people's money to some of the world's poorest, most corrupt nations: Samy Muaddi, who manages a portfolio of emerging-market bonds at T. Rowe Price Group , said he didn’t buy the Tajikistan debt because he lacked information about the country’s repaying history and financial strength. “We are seeing a lot of aggressively priced deals, as many new entrants are coming to the market with less-established track records,” he added. T. Rowe has about $16 billion in emerging-market debt. Poor Samy: he will likely be fired at the end of the year for being "too prudent and conservative." Meanwhile, at the corporate level, it is an absolute feeding frenzy, and companies that previously struggled to raise money in the credit markets had no trouble doing so recently. Geo Energy Resources, an Indonesian coal-mining group, canceled a $300 million bond sale in July when investors were demanding a yield of close to 9%. In late September, the company returned to the markets and sold the bonds with an 8.3% yield. Euphoria, indeed. But wait, it gets better: "even issuers with a history of defaults have been able to find buyers for their debt. Argentina in June sold 100-year bonds, even though the South American nation has defaulted multiple times over the past few decades." And some more narrative goalseeking by those who participated: “We’re at a part of the credit cycle globally that’s really benign. Risk-taking is really high,” said Jay Wintrob, CEO of Oaktree Capital Management, during a recent visit to Hong Kong. Los Angeles-based Oaktree has $99 billion under management in corporate debt and other investments. Unlike Samy, Jay will collect a hefty bonus this year: after all he traded alongside the central banks, who have made a mockery of what Bill Gross called "fake", manipulated markets. Adding insult to injury for those who still hold financial logic in high regard, "prices of emerging-market junk bonds have gained sharply this year, pushing their “spreads,” or the additional yield that investors demand over interest-rate benchmarks, to multiyear lows. That spread over U.S. Treasurys was just 3.48 percentage points at the end of last week, the tightest level in 10 years, according to J.P. Morgan. A year ago, the spread was 5.3 percentage points." Buyers of such bonds have been collecting hefty returns. A J.P. Morgan index that tracks high-yield corporate bonds in the emerging markets has risen 9.2% this year through September, significantly outperforming U.S. junk bonds, which have returned 6.7% over the same period. And while one can justify such purchases until one is blue in the face, claiming "synchronized global growth", improving balance sheets, or simply central bank herding, the reality is that - as we have discussed before - buyers of bonds issued by low-rated companies and countries in the emerging world could be exposed to multiple risks should markets turn. In previous times of market stress and economic weakness, junk bonds and emerging-market debt were among the asset classes that suffered sharp price declines as investors dumped riskier holdings for safer ones. The recent tightening in spreads raises questions about whether investors are getting adequately paid for the risk they are taking on. A faster-than-expected interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve could also hurt bonds broadly, because bond prices fall when rates and yields rise. Even so, almost nobody is concerned: "Polina Kurdyavko, co-head of emerging-market debt at BlueBay Asset Management, a fixed-income firm with $57 billion of assets under management, said she isn’t worried yet. Junk bond issuance, which makes up less than half of overall emerging-market debt supply, has so far been increasing proportionally to the broader sector." “I’ll start worrying when high yield dominates new bond issuance in emerging markets,” she said. There may be a simpler catalyst: the end of central bank liquidity injections.   As Deutsche Bank's chief macro strategist Alan Ruskin said earlier today... "As we look at what could shake the panoply of low vol forces, it is the thaw in Central Bank policy as they retreat from emergency measures that is potentially most intriguing/worrying. We are likely to be nearing a low point for major market bond and equity vol, and if the catalyst is policy it will likely come from positive volatility QE ‘flow effect’ being more powerful than the vol depressant ‘stock effect’. To twist a phrase from another well know Chicago economist: Vol may not always and everywhere be a monetary phenomena – but this is the first place to look for economic catalysts over the coming year." Ruskin is right, of course, but where he is wrong is the assumed reaction by central bankers: having cultivated the 'wealth effect' for the 1% for nearly a decade, will central banks suddenly turn their backs on the capital markets, their primary "wealth expansion pipeline", and see the fruit of their labor crushed? Judging by the record low volatility and credit spreads, and record high stocks, the market's verdict is simple: never.

10 октября, 22:39

Со-основатель PIMCO: Глобальная финсистема превратилась в тотальный фейк! (alexsword)

На АфтерШоке постоянно говорится, что глобальная финансовая система, с момента запуска бейлаутов в 2008 и последующих QE, превратилось в некое исчадие ада, совершенно оторванное от физической экономики, в котором комфортно чувствуют себя лишь паразиты и монстры хайпа, порожденные "дешевой ликвидностью" - такие как сланцевые аферисты или те же криптобесы. А вот что по этому поводу думают профессиональные спекулянты - на линии Билл Гросс, сооснователь PIMCO (под управлением $1,6 трюлей резаной): 38 комментариев

10 октября, 20:46

Bill Gross: "We Have Fake Markets Because Of The Fed"

Repeating an argument he has made increasingly more forcefully over the past few years, former bond king, Bill Gross, now at Janus Henderson where he oversees the $2.1 billion Unconstrained Bond Fund, said late on Monday that financial markets are artificially compressed, in the process distorting capitalism because of the U.S. Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy. "I think we have fake markets," Gross said at a Janus Henderson event quoted by Reuters. He added that investors should brace for higher bond yields as the Fed begins to unwind its quantitative easing program but yields will edge up "only gradually."  Repeating observations made here, and elsewhere countless times, Gross said the Fed's loose monetary policy had resulted in investors chasing yield and thus producing tight corporate spreads everywhere around the globe (but especially in Europe where junk bonds now yield less than matched maturity US treasurys due to the monetization distortions of the ECB). "Even China and South Korea - perfect examples of the risk trade - are at very narrow (corporate spread) levels. There is no real advantage in the global marketplace. Everything is so tight, it is hard to pick a winner from a group that is fake." Gross also reiterated his previous warning that Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other global policy makers should not rely on historical models such as the Taylor Rule and the Phillips curve "in an era of extraordinary monetary policy."  Of course, if Gross doe put his money where his mouth is - so to speak - and acts in a fiduciary duty in line with his convictions, he should return capital to investors immediately and wait until such time as market are no longer "fake" and where investors such as Gross have an edge. Somehow we doubt this will happen, however, prompting the question whether one needs fake traders to navigate these fake markets...

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09 октября, 23:48

Bill Gross of Janus blames Fed for 'fake markets'

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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Influential bond investor Bill Gross of Janus Henderson Investors said on Monday that financial markets are artificially compressed and capitalism distorted because of the U.S....

28 сентября, 01:59

Pimco Total Return Bond Fund, since Gross exit, outperforms most peers

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Three years after Bill Gross shocked the financial world by exiting Pacific Investment Management Co and ending his reign over the Pimco Total Return Bond (PTTRX) fund, investors...

19 сентября, 15:11

Frontrunning: September 19

Markets Brace for Fed’s Big Move: The End of Easy Money (WSJ) Senate GOP Has 12 Days to Repeal Obamacare and No Room for Error (BBG) Senate GOP Considers a Trillion-Dollar-Plus Tax Cut for Budget (WSJ) In first speech at U.N., Trump to single out North Korea, Iran (Reuters) Trump to Push Nationalist Policy in First U.N. Address (WSJ) Trump Will Call for Action on North Korea, Iran in First UN Address (BBG) A Guide to the Senate’s Three Health-Care Proposals (WSJ) Wall Street’s Bond Gurus Have the Fed’s Balance-Sheet Unwind All Wrong (BBG) Maria Regains Category 5 Strength on Path to USVIs and Puerto Rico (BBG) Mattis hints at military options on North Korea but offers no details (Reuters) Bond King Bill Gross Falls to the Middle of the Pack (BBG) Toys ‘R’ Us Seeks Bankruptcy, Crushed by Debt and Online Rivals (BBG) China’s Backdoor Real-Estate Bailout (WSJ) Equifax Discloses Earlier Cybersecurity Incident (WSJ) Brooklyn Seen as Best Bet for NYC to Win New Amazon Headquarters (BBG) What If an Irma-Like Hurricane Hit the New York City Metro Area? (BBG) The World’s Biggest Sovereign Wealth Fund Hits $1 Trillion (BBG) Ex-SAC trader says he forgot facts, seeks to void insider trading plea (Reuters) J Coin: Japanese banks' virtual currency without the volatility (Reuters) Swiss shut down 'fake' E-Coin in latest cryptocurrency crackdown (Reuters)   Overnight Media Digest WSJ - Toys 'R' Us Inc (IPO-TOYS.N), filed for bankruptcy protection late Monday night, undone by a hefty debt load and the rapid shift to online shopping. on.wsj.com/2fi5F6d - Alphabet Inc's Google on Monday launched its first-ever smartphone app that lets users transfer money to individuals and businesses in the country without the use of a credit or a debit card. on.wsj.com/2fgumjk - Hurricane Maria barreled into the eastern Caribbean late Monday as a dangerous Category 5 storm, ripping roofs from homes, knocking out electricity on the island of Dominica and threatening others in the region already ravaged by Hurricane Irma. on.wsj.com/2fgRMoZ - Cisco Systems Inc's executive chairman, John Chambers, is stepping down in December. The company plans to appoint Chief Executive Chuck Robbins as the next chairman. on.wsj.com/2ff4zIr - Roku Inc said it expects to raise up to $219 million in its initial public offering, as the maker of streaming-media devices set a price range for its planned listing that would value the company between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion. on.wsj.com/2ffYBXF - Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker signed a bill Monday that would give Taiwan's Foxconn Technology Group $3 billion in economic incentives to open a mega-plant in the state. on.wsj.com/2fgtziD - The U.S. has military options available for North Korea that would not put South Korea at grave risk of counterattack, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Monday, but he refused to spell out what those are. on.wsj.com/2fgQk62 - Equifax Inc hired cyber security experts to deal with an incident on its corporate networks in March, two months before the massive hack began that it has said led to the potential compromise of personal data belonging to 143 million U.S. consumers. on.wsj.com/2ffLGFu   FT Activist investor Nelson Peltz has urged in a letter to shareholders to vote him on the Procter & Gamble Co’s board at next month’s annual meeting. U.S. aircraft maker Boeing Co was warned on Monday that if it presses ahead with a competition case against Bombardier Inc then both Canada and Britain might block future procurement contracts with it. Rolling Stone co-founder Jann Wenner is selling his controlling stake in the magazine amidst revenue declines and suffered circulation as the publishing industry moves from print to digital. Cisco Systems Inc said on Monday Chairman John Chambers is going to step down. His departure comes as the company is going through an upheaval in its business caused by the rise of cloud computing.   NYT - Federal authorities have opened a criminal investigation into the massive data breach at Equifax, which potentially exposed the personal information of up to 143 million Americans, including their Social Security and driver's license numbers. nyti.ms/2fggCVS - Congressional efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act sprang back to life on Monday as Senate Republicans pushed for a showdown vote on new legislation that would do away with many of the health law's requirements and bundle its funding into giant block grants to the states. nyti.ms/2xsUsGE - U.S. President Donald Trump's administration officials, under pressure from the White House to provide a rationale for reducing the number of refugees allowed into the United States next year, rejected a study by the Department of Health and Human Services that found that refugees brought in $63 billion more in government revenues over the past decade than they cost. nyti.ms/2xbwHmS - Workers at a General Motors assembly plant in Ontario went on strike late Sunday as union leaders reported an impasse in talks to keep Canadian jobs from moving to Mexico. nyti.ms/2ylq1Qz - Under a federal settlement, the National Collegiate Student Loan Trusts will refund millions to borrowers and temporarily suspend debt collections. nyti.ms/2ff7IYL   Canada THE GLOBE AND MAIL ** Torxen Resources Ltd, led by former Cenovus Energy Inc Chief Operating Officer John Brannan, is leading a bid to acquire a major Alberta natural gas property from his former employer, a deal that could be worth up to C$600 million ($489 million), sources say. tgam.ca/2hbQlIR ** Mortgage Professionals Canada say tougher borrowing rules proposed by Canada's banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, could reduce the volume of home sales in Canada by 10-15 percent annually as buyers find it harder to qualify for loans. tgam.ca/2hf4oK4 ** The number of women serving on the boards of Toronto Stock Exchange-listed companies edged roughly two percentage points higher in the first half of the year, according to a new report by law firm Osler Hoskin & Harcourt LLP. tgam.ca/2hcvHIE NATIONAL POST ** The Fraser Institute said in a report released on Tuesday that Ontario's plan to increase the province's minimum wage to C$15 per hour by 2019 could increase the chance that less skilled workers, especially young people, will be "priced out" of a tougher labour market. bit.ly/2heHBOA ** The Ontario plant where about 2,800 General Motors of Canada Co auto workers decide to strike Sunday is "the poster child for what's wrong with NAFTA", the union president of Unifor Local 88 Dan Borthwick said after negotiators failed to reach a tentative agreement. bit.ly/2hfQuaz   Britain The Times -Theresa May has summoned ministers to a special cabinet meeting at which she will seek to bind Boris Johnson to her vision of Brexit on the eve of a key speech this week. bit.ly/2w4RPHs -The alleged Parsons Green attacker may have built his bomb in a shed at the bottom of the back garden of his Surrey foster home, police have said. bit.ly/2f6HRPe The Guardian -The government needs to step in to help tackle the mountain of debt being racked up by consumers in Britain, the chief financial regulator has warned, as new data shows that personal debt burdens are continuing to rise. bit.ly/2w3ln8z -Chris Geoghegan, father of the Bell Pottinger executive at the centre of the South Africa scandal that brought down the City PR firm, has resigned from his role as a board member of London-listed pest control and hygiene firm Rentokil Initial Plc . The Telegraph -The row over state subsidies for Canadian planemaker Bombardier Inc topped talks between Theresa May and Justin Trudeau, with the British and Canadian prime ministers vowing to fight to protect jobs in their countries. bit.ly/2w3wlLj -Ryanair could have to fork out 20 million euros ($23.92 million) in compensation as it moved to cancel the flights of roughly 400,000 passengers after admitting to "messing up" the allocation of holiday to its pilots. bit.ly/2f6DBz2 Sky News -British holiday carrier Monarch Airlines is working with KPMG on options for the sale or restructuring of its short-haul business through a joint venture or feeder deal with another airline. bit.ly/2w4SiJI -The entrepreneurs who founded TransferWise, Taavet Hinrikus and Kirsto Kaarmann, are poised to land windfalls worth millions of pounds by selling their first shares in the company they founded six years ago. bit.ly/2w4jqbJ The Independent -Uber will have to pay 2.9 million pounds ($3.92 million) over the next five years to operate in London, under a new licensing fee structure due to be introduced by Transport for London this week. ind.pn/2w3wxu1 -Michael Kors Holdings Ltd is set to complete its proposed 900 million pounds ($1.22 billion) takeover of Jimmy Choo Plc after more than 98 percent of shareholders of the luxury shoemaker backed the bid at a meeting. ind.pn/2f7rQIO

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20 августа, 16:51

Here Is The WSJ Article That Jeff Gundlach Has Been Raging Against

Well, the "fake news" article that Jeff Gundlach has been quietly - and not so quietly - raging against for weeks on Twitter, is finally out. Readers will recall that DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach has been engaging in an odd subtweeting campaign on Twitter over the past month with what until recently had been an unnamed media outlet that was allegedly being used by a similarly unnamed Doubleline competitor to accuse Gundlach's fund of doing poorly and suffering outflows, something the "bond king" has said is "false news" to borrow a Trumpism... ... and then last week, Gundlach finally revealed that the "fake news" publication with the imminent hit piece in question was the WSJ: Mutual Fund Wire just put out looong "top influencers" list. Have to laugh competitor in cahoots with WSJ upcoming fake news didn't make it! — Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) August 17, 2017 WSJ desperate to populate "anonymous source" DBL hit piece. Now calling new employees. Even called spouse of one last night. Sad but true. — Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) August 17, 2017 Mutual Fund Wire just put out looong "top influencers" list. Have to laugh competitor in cahoots with WSJ upcoming fake news didn't make it! — Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) August 17, 2017 Meanwhile, Gundlach - having recently turned quite bearish and predicting, accurately, last weeks volatility surge, had done everything in his power to take preemptive damage control and publicize that DoubleLine is in no way in peril, in need of funding, or worried about outflows. In a recent interview with Bloomberg's Erik Shatzker, Gundlach said that he is content with the size of his fund, which he does not want growing too large, and may soon turn new money away: “Gundlach is taking a similarly conservative approach to building his eight-year-old firm. While some competitors embrace the mantra “size matters,” he believes there’s a limit to how much DoubleLine can manage well and says the firm may stop marketing altogether once assets reach $150 billion, up from about $110 billion today.   ‘I’ve actually been turning money away in our institutional business,’ Gundlach said. ‘I don’t want to manage $500 billion. I don’t really want to manage $200 billion.’... “I don’t want one $150 billion fund, I want 10 $15 billion funds. A diversified business,” Gundlach said in the interview. “We lose business because our fees are too high and I say, ‘Fine, that’s a way of regulating growth.’”   “Bill Gross once managed a single fund with $293 billion in assets, the Pimco Total Return Fund. By comparison, Gundlach, who co-founded DoubleLine in 2009, said he’s debated whether to close the $54 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, the firm’s largest, to new money.” The statement echoed what Gundlach said in a tweet from August 2: "DoubleLine Facts: All time high AUM, revenue, headcount. Returns good-to great across funds. CEO never berates employees. Boycott fake news!" Then, as we reported two weeks ago, we suggested that the reason for the recent din over DoubleLine - or rather Total Return Bond Fund - AUM is that Gundlach was anticipating the latest Morningstar fund flow data, reported by Reuters, according to which investors pulled another $200 million from Jeffrey. Gundlach's flagship Total Return Bond Fund in July, extending the outflow streak that began in November to nine consecutive months. So far this year, the fund has posted outflows of $3.6 billion, leaving it with $53.6 billion in AUM as of the end of As Reuters wrote "the withdrawals are notable given that other bond funds are swimming in new cash from investors and at a time when the DoubleLine fund's performance has been strong. Some $203 billion flowed into bond funds in the first half of 2017, and bond funds overall have not recorded a single week of outflows all year, according to the Investment Company Institute, a trade group. The outflows are odd in the context of TRF's YTD outperformance: "DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund's lower-cost institutional shares were up 3.2 percent this year through Tuesday, beating its benchmark, according to data from Thomson Reuters' Lipper research unit." Preempting the news, Gundlach in a tweet early Wednesday said that DoubleLine is a top-ranked fund company by net cash inflows this year through July. Sure enough, while TRF is seeing outflows, the broader DoubleLine continues to take in cash: overall, the firm pulled $253 million into its mutual funds and ETFs during July and $2.5 billion this year, ranking 24th of 405 fund families, according to Morningstar data. A recent interview with Reuters may explain this discrepancy: Gundlach said DoubleLine was "trying to focus on our strategy: growing our other funds." He was referring to the SPDR DoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF, DoubleLine Core Fixed Income Fund, DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE, DoubleLine Low Duration Bond Fund, DoubleLine Infrastructure Income Fund and DoubleLine Flexible Income Fund. Those six funds have attracted $5.8 billion this year, according to Morningstar. "We are marketing our other funds and not DBLTX," Gundlach said. "We are accomplishing exactly what we planned." As we concluded two weeks ago, "it remains to be seen if there is anything more structural within DoubleLine to explain the outflows, or the explanation for Gundlach's recent odd tweeting behavior." * * * And with all that in mind, fast forward to Sunday morning when the long-awaited and much-(pre)publicized WSJ article was finally released. In it, the WSJ's Greg Zuckerman picks up on what we, Reuters and Morningstar previously noted, namely the 9 consecutive months of outflows from DoubleLine's flagship bond fund: Jeffrey Gundlach built one of the most successful new bond funds ever, amassing $61.7 billion of assets at the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund over just six years. But during the past year something else happened: Some customers began to leave. Assets under management at the fund dropped 13% from their peak last September to $53.6 billion as of July 31.    Investors have pulled $8.5 billion from the fund in that period, Morningstar Inc. says, while funds in the same category took in net inflows of 7.2%. The fund has had outflows in each of the past nine months. Naturally, the WSJ was delighted to take advantage of the massive publicity Gundlach's own tweeting had generated in recent weeks for the coming piece: As performance has slipped and the fund has shrunk, Mr. Gundlach, 57 years old, has turned combative, taking on the media and continuing to taunt a rival. Meanwhile, some within the firm are bracing for what could be a more challenging environment. And here are the "dots" that one can finally connect based on Gundlach's aggressive subtweeting since the start of August: Late last year and earlier this year, some at DoubleLine Capital’s offices in downtown Los Angeles say, they were told bonuses might drop in 2017, according to people close to the matter. The firm says the guidance was aimed at creating a “pragmatic assessment” of 2017 after a big year in 2016.   Mr. Gundlach’s fund’s performance has been solid. But some investors say they are leaving because the fund has cooled from its previously white-hot pace.   Total Return Bond Fund topped 90% of peer funds over the past three- and five-year periods. In 2017, though, it is besting 59% of competitors, with a 3.15% gain through Aug. 17, Morningstar says. That said, in the the article's weakest link, and rather bizarre argument, one is somehow expected to extrapolate from the behavior of a few investors (in this case a retired orthodontist), what billions in capital will do momentarily. "Among those bailing are individual investors, who helped fuel the fund’s growth but can be quicker than institutions to pull their funds when performance lags. Barney Rothstein, a retired orthodontist in Tucson, Ariz., withdrew $250,000 from the fund over the past 18 months and shifted the money to individual bonds that carry similar yields but can be held to maturity, unlike a bond fund, potentially giving an investor more cushion if the market turns down.   “The extra return wasn’t there anymore,” he said." Well, Barney, the only "extra return" these days is if you buy tech stocks on leverage... or Ethereum and Bitcoin, of course. Furthermore, it appears that the WSJ's entire "outflows" thesis is based on the assumption that once a fund reaches a "normalized return"inflection point, investors will flee. We are hardly convinced, especially in a time when 90% of hedge funds can't outperform the S&P: Some investors in Pimco’s once-giant Total Return fund left it in 2013 and 2014 when the fund, led at the time by Bill Gross, stopped trouncing rivals. A spokeswoman for Mr. Gross’s current firm, Janus Henderson Investors, said he outperformed his benchmark during that period.   “This is part of having exceptional returns—at some point there will be less-than-exceptional returns,” said A. Michael Lipper, who advises investors in mutual funds. Mr. Gundlach, he said, “wouldn’t like the comparison, but the same thing happened to Bill Gross.”   Now investors like Castle Financial & Retirement Planning Associates Inc. in Hazlet, N.J., are shifting to Pimco from DoubleLine. “Performance has been waning,” said Al Procaccino II, president of the firm, which pulled money from the DoubleLine fund this year. Doubleline's response was well-telegraphed, the bond manager said it isn’t troubled by the outflows or the performance of the fund, which is nearly $45 billion larger than DoubleLine’s next biggest fund. “Many well-known, actively managed bond funds that have been around long enough go through periods of net outflows, some far more dramatic than Mr. Gundlach’s fund has experienced,” a DoubleLine spokeswoman said. "There are only so many opportunities for actively managed funds. DoubleLine stopped marketing the fund two years ago, and the firm is pleased with where the asset level is.” Of course, whether DoubleLine's outflows are "controlled" will become obvious shortly: ultimately the single best predictor of future capital flows is today's performance, and for now DoubleLine has nothing to worry about. Perhaps the only interesting aspect in the entire WSJ piece is the additional insight into why Gundlach's twitter account has recently become rather more... colorful: One former employee says Mr. Gundlach aims to stir debate and focus attention on his fund.   “Even if the inner Jeffrey is truly composed and collected, the outer Jeffrey is the actor—he’s a rational creation who understands how to rattle the cage,” says Claude Erb, a former portfolio manager at DoubleLine and TCW. “He’s seen client enthusiasm ebb and flow. When it’s waning, you have to redouble your efforts to get the message out.”   René Bruer, the co-chief executive at Smith Bruer Advisors, which manages $80 million, withdrew all of his clients’ money from the fund in 2015 partly because of concerns about its reliance on the outspoken manager. “He can create controversy. If that’s what floats his boat, great,” Mr. Bruer says. “But for my clients and for me, I can’t take much of that.” Quoted by the WSJ, Jordan Edwards of Avier Wealth Advisors in Bellevue, Wash., which keeps about 10% of clients’ bond allocation in the fund, cited Mr. Gundlach’s investing skills and said, “I would prefer that he would not be as provocative as he is.”  And yet, Jordan - and most other investors- will gladly keep their funds with Gundlach as long as he continues to outperform, which is why the whole point behind this "fake news" article is quite lost on us.

19 августа, 23:48

Lord Rothschild: "Share Prices Are At Unprecedented Levels, This Is Not A Time To Add Risk"

One year ago, the financial world was abuzz when the bond manager of what was once the world's biggest bond fund had a dire prediction about how "all of this" will end (spoiler: not well). Gross: Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history. $10 trillion of neg. rate bonds. This is a supernova that will explode one day — Janus Henderson U.S. (@JHIAdvisorsUS) June 9, 2016 Two months later, it was the turn of another financial icon - if from a vastly different legacy and pedigree - that of Rothschild Investment Trust Chairman himself, Lord Jacob Rothschild, who echoed Bill Gross with an unexpectedly gloomy warning in his 2016 half-year financial report, saying that central bankers are continuing "what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world. We are therefore in uncharted waters and it is impossible to predict the unintended consequences of very low interest rates, with some 30% of global government debt at negative yields, combined with quantitative easing on a massive scale." His outlook was just as gloomy: "the geo-political situation has deteriorated with the UK having voted to leave the European Union, the presidential election in the US  in November is likely to be unusually fraught, while the situation in China remains opaque and the slowing down of economic growth will surely lead to problems. Conflict in the Middle East continues and is unlikely to be resolved for many years. We have already felt the consequences of this in France, Germany and the USA in terrorist attacks." One year later, the scion of the most (in)famous name in all of finance, is back and in his latest letter to RIT Capital Partners investors,  Lord Jacob Rotschild has released what is perhaps his gloomiest outlook ever; here are the highlights: We do not believe this is an appropriate time to add to risk. Share prices have in many cases risen to unprecedented levels at a time when economic growth is by no means assured. The S&P is selling at 25 times trailing 12 months’ earnings, compared to a long-term average of 15, while the adjusted Shiller price earnings ratio, which averages profits over 10 years, is approximately 30 times.     The period of monetary accommodation may well be coming to an end. Geopolitical problems remain widespread and are proving increasingly difficult to resolve. We therefore retain a moderate exposure to equity markets and have diversified our asset allocation towards equity investments where value creation is driven by some identifiable catalyst or which are exposed to longer-term positive structural trends. Furthermore, Rothschild continued the shift away from US capital markets exposure announced one year ago, noting that "we have a particular interest in investments which will benefit from the impact of new technologies, and Far Eastern markets, influenced by the growing demand from Asian consumers." What is surprising is how aggressively Rothschild has cut its allocation to US-denominated assets in just the past 6 months. Not surprisingly, RIT's investment portfolio continues do quite well, and has now returned over 2,200% since inception Below is a snapshot of where every hedge fund wants to end up: the Rothschild investment portfolio. Finally, for all those wondering where the Rothschild family fortune is hiding, here is the answer.

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08 августа, 14:52

Gundlach Is Quietly Heading For The Exit: "Volatility Is About To Go Up"

DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach has become one of the most visible critics of market complacency, revealing his purchase buy five- and eight-month S&P 500 put options. Now, the legendary bond investor is touting his bet on a spike in equity market volatility as one of his “highest conviction” trades, according to an interview with Bloomberg. "Volatility is about to go up," he said. "That’s my highest-conviction trade right now." As a result, Gundlach - who does not anticipated a crash (yet) - says his fund is quietly moving toward the exits on riskier assets, which is also his recommendation to traders. “I don’t see the big drop, unless there’s something out of left field, like some sort of really escalating conflict,” he said. “I think you’re supposed to be gradualistically moving toward the exits.” Speaking to Erik Shatzker, Gundlach says he’s reducing DoubleLine’s positions in junk bonds and EM debt and moving to safer high-yield credits. With US equities looking increasingly overvalued with each successive all-time high, Gundlach says being defensively positioned is worth sacrificing a few quarters of higher returns. In the interview, Gundlach echod recent bearish views expressed by investing legend Howard Marks, who said that markets have crossed into “too bullish” territory according to his latest investor letter, discussed here previously. “If you’re waiting for the catalyst to show itself, you’re going to be selling at a lower price," he said in a phone interview Monday from DoubleLine’s office in Los Angeles. “This is not the time period where you say, ‘I can buy anything and not worry about the risk of it.’ The time to do that was 18 months ago.” When asked about his business plans, Gundlach revealed that DoubleLine’s AUM increased to an all-time high of $110 billion in 2017. However, he unlike so many other managers, he has no intention of growing his AUM exponentially, and insisted that he may soon close the fund to new money, adding that he doesn’t want DL to become an industry behemoth like BlackRock or Vanguard. “Gundlach is taking a similarly conservative approach to building his eight-year-old firm. While some competitors embrace the mantra “size matters,” he believes there’s a limit to how much DoubleLine can manage well and says the firm may stop marketing altogether once assets reach $150 billion, up from about $110 billion today.   ‘I’ve actually been turning money away in our institutional business,’ Gundlach said. ‘I don’t want to manage $500 billion. I don’t really want to manage $200 billion.’   That attitude is out of step with an industry that prioritizes asset growth, both as a means to generate more revenue and as a way to defray fixed expenses such as technology and compliance. Janus Capital Group and Aberdeen Asset Management Plc each combined with other firms in part to gain scale. Vanguard Group has more than quadrupled its assets to $4.4 trillion in less than a decade, and in an interview in March, Larry Fink, whose BlackRock Inc. oversees $5.7 trillion, said ‘scale has become a greater necessity - and for us a greater advantage.’” As a result, Gundlach may soon shut his flagship $50 billion Total Return Fund to new money, saying that continued growth would make it more difficult to invest in some less-liquid high-yield markets. “Bill Gross once managed a single fund with $293 billion in assets, the Pimco Total Return Fund. By comparison, Gundlach, who co-founded DoubleLine in 2009, said he’s debated whether to close the $54 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, the firm’s largest, to new money.” While many hedge funds are slashing fees in a desperate attempt to attract new capital, Gundlach sees high fees as a way to regulate growth. “I don’t want one $150 billion fund, I want 10 $15 billion funds. A diversified business,” Gundlach said in the interview. “We lose business because our fees are too high and I say, ‘Fine, that’s a way of regulating growth.’” Of course, there’s probably no better strategy to ensure that every major institutional investor will show up at your door, check in hand, begging for you to take their money than telling Bloomberg that the door to new money is closing quickly.

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08 августа, 14:52

Gundlach Is Quietly Heading For The Exit: "Volatility Is About To Go Up"

DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach has become one of the most visible critics of market complacency, revealing his purchase buy five- and eight-month S&P 500 put options. Now, the legendary bond investor is touting his bet on a spike in equity market volatility as one of his “highest conviction” trades, according to an interview with Bloomberg. "Volatility is about to go up," he said. "That’s my highest-conviction trade right now." As a result, Gundlach - who does not anticipated a crash (yet) - says his fund is quietly moving toward the exits on riskier assets, which is also his recommendation to traders. “I don’t see the big drop, unless there’s something out of left field, like some sort of really escalating conflict,” he said. “I think you’re supposed to be gradualistically moving toward the exits.” Speaking to Erik Shatzker, Gundlach says he’s reducing DoubleLine’s positions in junk bonds and EM debt and moving to safer high-yield credits. With US equities looking increasingly overvalued with each successive all-time high, Gundlach says being defensively positioned is worth sacrificing a few quarters of higher returns. In the interview, Gundlach echod recent bearish views expressed by investing legend Howard Marks, who said that markets have crossed into “too bullish” territory according to his latest investor letter, discussed here previously. “If you’re waiting for the catalyst to show itself, you’re going to be selling at a lower price," he said in a phone interview Monday from DoubleLine’s office in Los Angeles. “This is not the time period where you say, ‘I can buy anything and not worry about the risk of it.’ The time to do that was 18 months ago.” When asked about his business plans, Gundlach revealed that DoubleLine’s AUM increased to an all-time high of $110 billion in 2017. However, he unlike so many other managers, he has no intention of growing his AUM exponentially, and insisted that he may soon close the fund to new money, adding that he doesn’t want DL to become an industry behemoth like BlackRock or Vanguard. “Gundlach is taking a similarly conservative approach to building his eight-year-old firm. While some competitors embrace the mantra “size matters,” he believes there’s a limit to how much DoubleLine can manage well and says the firm may stop marketing altogether once assets reach $150 billion, up from about $110 billion today.   ‘I’ve actually been turning money away in our institutional business,’ Gundlach said. ‘I don’t want to manage $500 billion. I don’t really want to manage $200 billion.’   That attitude is out of step with an industry that prioritizes asset growth, both as a means to generate more revenue and as a way to defray fixed expenses such as technology and compliance. Janus Capital Group and Aberdeen Asset Management Plc each combined with other firms in part to gain scale. Vanguard Group has more than quadrupled its assets to $4.4 trillion in less than a decade, and in an interview in March, Larry Fink, whose BlackRock Inc. oversees $5.7 trillion, said ‘scale has become a greater necessity - and for us a greater advantage.’” As a result, Gundlach may soon shut his flagship $50 billion Total Return Fund to new money, saying that continued growth would make it more difficult to invest in some less-liquid high-yield markets. “Bill Gross once managed a single fund with $293 billion in assets, the Pimco Total Return Fund. By comparison, Gundlach, who co-founded DoubleLine in 2009, said he’s debated whether to close the $54 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, the firm’s largest, to new money.” While many hedge funds are slashing fees in a desperate attempt to attract new capital, Gundlach sees high fees as a way to regulate growth. “I don’t want one $150 billion fund, I want 10 $15 billion funds. A diversified business,” Gundlach said in the interview. “We lose business because our fees are too high and I say, ‘Fine, that’s a way of regulating growth.’” Of course, there’s probably no better strategy to ensure that every major institutional investor will show up at your door, check in hand, begging for you to take their money than telling Bloomberg that the door to new money is closing quickly.

Выбор редакции
08 августа, 14:52

Gundlach Is Quietly Heading For The Exit: "Volatility Is About To Go Up"

DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach has become one of the most visible critics of market complacency, revealing his purchase buy five- and eight-month S&P 500 put options. Now, the legendary bond investor is touting his bet on a spike in equity market volatility as one of his “highest conviction” trades, according to an interview with Bloomberg. "Volatility is about to go up," he said. "That’s my highest-conviction trade right now." As a result, Gundlach - who does not anticipated a crash (yet) - says his fund is quietly moving toward the exits on riskier assets, which is also his recommendation to traders. “I don’t see the big drop, unless there’s something out of left field, like some sort of really escalating conflict,” he said. “I think you’re supposed to be gradualistically moving toward the exits.” Speaking to Erik Shatzker, Gundlach says he’s reducing DoubleLine’s positions in junk bonds and EM debt and moving to safer high-yield credits. With US equities looking increasingly overvalued with each successive all-time high, Gundlach says being defensively positioned is worth sacrificing a few quarters of higher returns. In the interview, Gundlach echod recent bearish views expressed by investing legend Howard Marks, who said that markets have crossed into “too bullish” territory according to his latest investor letter, discussed here previously. “If you’re waiting for the catalyst to show itself, you’re going to be selling at a lower price," he said in a phone interview Monday from DoubleLine’s office in Los Angeles. “This is not the time period where you say, ‘I can buy anything and not worry about the risk of it.’ The time to do that was 18 months ago.” When asked about his business plans, Gundlach revealed that DoubleLine’s AUM increased to an all-time high of $110 billion in 2017. However, he unlike so many other managers, he has no intention of growing his AUM exponentially, and insisted that he may soon close the fund to new money, adding that he doesn’t want DL to become an industry behemoth like BlackRock or Vanguard. “Gundlach is taking a similarly conservative approach to building his eight-year-old firm. While some competitors embrace the mantra “size matters,” he believes there’s a limit to how much DoubleLine can manage well and says the firm may stop marketing altogether once assets reach $150 billion, up from about $110 billion today.   ‘I’ve actually been turning money away in our institutional business,’ Gundlach said. ‘I don’t want to manage $500 billion. I don’t really want to manage $200 billion.’   That attitude is out of step with an industry that prioritizes asset growth, both as a means to generate more revenue and as a way to defray fixed expenses such as technology and compliance. Janus Capital Group and Aberdeen Asset Management Plc each combined with other firms in part to gain scale. Vanguard Group has more than quadrupled its assets to $4.4 trillion in less than a decade, and in an interview in March, Larry Fink, whose BlackRock Inc. oversees $5.7 trillion, said ‘scale has become a greater necessity - and for us a greater advantage.’” As a result, Gundlach may soon shut his flagship $50 billion Total Return Fund to new money, saying that continued growth would make it more difficult to invest in some less-liquid high-yield markets. “Bill Gross once managed a single fund with $293 billion in assets, the Pimco Total Return Fund. By comparison, Gundlach, who co-founded DoubleLine in 2009, said he’s debated whether to close the $54 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, the firm’s largest, to new money.” While many hedge funds are slashing fees in a desperate attempt to attract new capital, Gundlach sees high fees as a way to regulate growth. “I don’t want one $150 billion fund, I want 10 $15 billion funds. A diversified business,” Gundlach said in the interview. “We lose business because our fees are too high and I say, ‘Fine, that’s a way of regulating growth.’” Of course, there’s probably no better strategy to ensure that every major institutional investor will show up at your door, check in hand, begging for you to take their money than telling Bloomberg that the door to new money is closing quickly.

01 августа, 14:57

What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi

What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi  - What investors can learn from the Japanese art of Kintsukuroi or Kintsugi - art of repairing broken pottery with gold- Investors and savers can protect their savings with gold- Savers and investors are being punished by negative to low interest rates- Global debt levels, stock bubbles and reduced liquidity will lead to crisis- Reinforce cracks with gold prior to money pot shatters Source: Wikimedia Editor: Mark O'Byrne Kintsukuroi or Kintsugi is the Japanese art of repairing broken pottery with gold and silver. The Japanese like to consider it a way of not only repairing the item but also transforming it into something new which is pristine and has a new potential. For the philosphers in the art world they like to ask how can something of such beauty be created from a shattered vase or bowl? Our politics, markets and economy are broken. With each passing day we see more evidence of a globalised, interconnected world that is also increasingly politically and financially fragmented. In turn this is raising tensions between and within countries. Especially between the 'haves' and 'have nots.' We have seen this before, many times in history, when the greed of mankind and his belief in infallibility leads us to believe we can perform unprecedented financial experiments. The more we push on with the experiments, rather than learning from history, the bigger the cracks and damage. Jim Rogers recently expressed his disgust at banks’s claims that had they not acted as they had in response to the financial crisis then things would be worse. Rogers disagrees, all they have done is papered over and widened the cracks… "propping up zombie banks and dead companies is not the way the world is supposed to work. ... It's been nine years and we have nothing to show for it [economically] except staggering amounts of debt.” In order for Kintsugi to transpire the artist must ‘see’ a cracked pot differently. A new perspective has to be taken. The pot is not broken, it is not useless instead it is something which has potential to become stronger and better. We must begin to look at our economy in a similar light. Our savings are not useless, in the same way our economic system is not useless. But they are weak in their current state, they should be made stronger rather than forced to take on more pressure. The art of seeing differently Last week, came the news that global debt levels were 327% of world gross domestic product (GDP), at $217 trillion in the first quarter of 2017. We have added over $120 trillion since the financial crisis. In the weeks before the world’s top money managers had rung the warning bell that this pot was ready to crumble. Marc Faber told CNBC that ‘everything’ is in a bubble with the risk that: “One day this bubble will end,”  and as a result people will lose 50% of their wealth. Mohammed El Erian, part of the global financial elite but someone who we should all listen to, has also expressed similar concerns to Faber. He wrote on Bloomberg that because of reduced liquidity resulting from simultaneous policy tightening by central banks, he has some serious doubts about the sustainability of the current overextended bull market in stocks. Meanwhile Bill Gross believes markets in the US are at their highest risk levels post-2008 as investors are paying a high price for taking chances. The low (and negative) interest rates of  central banks are artificially driving up asset prices. This is creating little growth in the real economy and as a result is punishing individual savers and businesses. Even those who are generally more concerned with individual wellbeing rather than the health of the global economy are now getting involved in firing warning shots. Life guru Tony Robbins has warned that ‘the crash is coming’ both in a book and on a regular podcast. He recently pointed to the falsehoods that we are all being told about the system, "We are in a really artificial situation. There is a new high, on average, every month. Feds around the world have been printing money.” But, this is the world we live in. Should we wait and see how it plays out? Bury our heads in the sand? Or, should we instead think about what we can do differently. How we can look at his situation and take a new perspective, give it some potential and extended future? Like the art of kintsukuroi we may be able to give it a second chance, with gold. Gold is for everyone: Some are already filling the cracks with gold “The world breaks everyone, then some become strong at the broken places.” Ernest Hemingway Countries around the world (including large nations such as Russia and China) are acquiring gold at an accelerated rate in order to diversify their reserve positions. When you consider the already substantial reserves in the US, Germany and the IMF, we may already be moving quietly towards a default gold standard. There is a reason these countries and organisations are accumulating and/or holding onto gold. They know that when things take the inevitable turn for the worst, gold will alleviate the financial and monetary damage. They know this because whilst their economic policies might not reflect any knowledge of history, history including the recent crisis shows them that gold has survived history because of it’s ability to hold value and act as a safe haven. Unfortunately the chances of the majority of the world’s leaders realising how they can fix the cracks before they become breaks, are low. But that doesn’t mean investors can’t embrace gold to fix the cracks that their finances and investments are exposed to. As with the broken pots, gold just needs to be a small part of your portfolio. A small allocation confers stability and insurance. Jim Rickards argues that the solution to the risks we are all exposed to is to allocate 10% of your portfolio to physical gold or silver:‘That will be your insurance when the time comes.’ Whether it is 5%, 10% or 50%, gold should play a part in your portfolio to give it strength in the tough times that are no doubt ahead. Just one look at the table below (from guru Tony Robbins) and you can see how little an amount needs to go in, in order to fill the cracks and reduce volatility and enhance returns in a portfolio. All Seasons strategy via Ray Dalio via Tony Robbins You might ask why isn’t there a rush to gold if it’s the way to secure our portfolios? Only the smart money is diversifying into gold now - as was the case before the first financial crisis. Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics recently said: ‘Gold and the stock market will take off when people realize that government is in trouble. When they lose confidence, that is when they will start to pour into tangible assets.’ Conclusion - Reinforce the financial cracks with gold Really kintsukuroi is about highlighting imperfections. Many reading this might ask why on earth one would want to highlight the imperfections in the banking system and the global financial system rather than just starting from scratch. We don’t need to go so far as to lose our wealth in order to realise how we can protect ourselves. There is no changing the damage that has been done. We cannot erase the past, only learn from it. How do you learn from things? By remembering what has happened and by incorporating those lessons into every day life. We can do that with gold. We can learn from the past mistakes and bring gold into our portfolios to protect and grow our wealth. Gold has consistently proven itself in times of economic distress. Those who have benefited the most from this are the ones who bought their insurance and reinforced the cracks prior to the shattering crash. Source: Kate Ter Haar via Flickr        News and Commentary Gold ends marginally lower but books solid +2.5% gain in July (MarketWatch.com) U.S. Stocks Mixed, Dollar Gains as Treasuries Slip: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com) LBMA shines a light on the gold in London’s vaults – 7,449 tonnes as of March 31 (Reuters.com) Ex-NASA Agent Fears Gold Lunar Module Will Be Melted Down (Bloomberg.com) Gold Logs Fourth Monthly Increase; US Mint Bullion Sales Bounce in July (CoinNews.net) U.S. Mint bullion sales improved greatly in July Revealed for the first time: How much gold is in London's vaults? (Telegraph.co.uk) Millennials' wages devoured by their own beloved technologies (DavidMCWilliams.ie) Peak Complacency as Recession Looms - Prepare (MauldinEconomics.com) We Need Our $40 Trillion In Stolen Cash Back - Catherine Austin Fitts (Youtube.com) Strategist Sees Gold Higher, Dollar Lower (video) (Bloomberg.com) Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 01 Aug: USD 1,267.05, GBP 957.76 & EUR 1,072.30 per ounce31 Jul: USD 1,266.35, GBP 965.59 & EUR 1,079.06 per ounce28 Jul: USD 1,259.60, GBP 961.96 & EUR 1,075.45 per ounce27 Jul: USD 1,262.05, GBP 960.29 & EUR 1,076.53 per ounce26 Jul: USD 1,245.40, GBP 956.72 & EUR 1,071.29 per ounce25 Jul: USD 1,252.00, GBP 960.78 & EUR 1,074.59 per ounce24 Jul: USD 1,255.85, GBP 962.99 & EUR 1,077.64 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 01 Aug: USD 16.74, GBP 12.67 & EUR 14.17 per ounce31 Jul: USD 16.76, GBP 12.77 & EUR 14.29 per ounce28 Jul: USD 16.56, GBP 12.66 & EUR 14.15 per ounce27 Jul: USD 16.79, GBP 12.77 & EUR 14.34 per ounce26 Jul: USD 16.37, GBP 12.54 & EUR 14.06 per ounce25 Jul: USD 16.31, GBP 12.52 & EUR 14.00 per ounce24 Jul: USD 16.50, GBP 12.66 & EUR 14.17 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Bitcoin, ICO Risk Versus Immutable Gold and Silver- This Is Why Shrinkflation Is Making You Poor- Gold A Good Store Of Value – Protect From $217 Trillion Global Debt Bubble- Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis- Gold Seasonal Sweet Spot – August and September – Coming- Commercial Property Market In Dublin Is Inflated and May Burst Again- Gold Hedges Against Currency Devaluation and Cost Of Fuel, Food, Beer and Housing- Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Gold and Silver For Long Term- “Time To Position In Gold Is Right Now” says Jim Rickards- Bloomberg Silver Price Survey – Median 12 Month Forecast Of $20- “Bigger Systemic Risk” Now Than 2008 – Bank of England- “Financial Crisis” Coming By End Of 2018 – Prepare Urgently- Video – “Gold Should Probably Be $5000” – CME Chairman Important Guides For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017: Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK) Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.

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30 июля, 21:05

Pimco attracts $50bn as investors drawn to new star

New money concentrated in just one product run by Dan Ivascyn

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30 июля, 21:05

Pimco pulls in $50bn active cash as investors drawn to new star

‘Remarkable’ turnround since departure of founder Bill Gross in 2014

28 июля, 00:15

Total Government And Personal Debt In The U.S. Has Hit 41 Trillion Dollars ($329,961.34 Per Household)

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog, We are living in the greatest debt bubble in the history of the world.  In 1980, total government and personal debt in the United States was just over the 3 trillion dollar mark, but today it has surpassed 41 trillion dollars.  That means that it has increased by almost 14 times since Ronald Reagan was first elected president.  I am searching for words to describe how completely and utterly insane this is, but I am coming up empty.  We are slowly but surely committing national suicide, and yet most Americans don’t even understand what is happening. According to 720 Global, total government debt plus total personal debt in the United States was just over 3 trillion dollars in 1980.  That broke down to $38,552 per household, and that figure represented 79 percent of median household income at the time. Today, total government debt plus total personal debt in the United States has blown past the 41 trillion dollar mark.  When you break that down, it comes to $329,961.34 per household, and that figure represents 584 percent of median household income. If anyone can make a good argument that we are not in very serious debt trouble, I would love to hear it. And remember, the figures above don’t even include corporate debt.  They only include government debt on the federal, state and local levels, and all forms of personal debt. So do you have $329,961.34 ready to pay your share of the debt that we have accumulated? Nobody that I know could write that kind of a check.  The truth is that as a nation we are flat broke.  The only way that the game can keep going is for all of us to borrow increasingly larger sums of money, but of course that is not sustainable by any definition. Eventually we are going to slam into a wall and the game will be over. One of my pet peeves is the national debt.  Our politicians spend money in some of the most ridiculous ways imaginable, and yet no matter how much we complain about it nothing ever seems to change. For example, the U.S. military actually spends 42 million dollars a year on Viagra. Yes, you read that correctly. 42 million of your tax dollars are being spent on Viagra every year. And overall spending on “erectile dysfunction medicines” each year comes to a grand total of 84 million dollars… According to data from the Defense Health Agency, DoD actually spent $41.6 million on Viagra — and $84.24 million total on erectile dysfunction prescriptions — last year.   And since 2011, the tab for drugs like Viagra, Cialis and Levitra totals $294 million — the equivalent of nearly four U.S. Air Force F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. Is this really where our spending on “national defense” should be going?  We are nearly 20 trillion dollars in debt, and yet we continue to spend money like there is no tomorrow.  For much more on the exploding size of our national debt and the very serious implications that this has for our future, please see my previous article entitled “Would You Like To Steal 128 Million Dollars?” I didn’t think that our debt bubble could ever possibly get this big, but I didn’t think that our stock market bubble could ever possibly get quite get this large either.  For a few moments, I would like for you to consider a list of facts about this stock market bubble that was recently published by Zero Hedge… The S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) valuation has only been greater on one occasion, the late 1990s. It is currently on par with levels preceding the Great Depression. CAPE valuation, when adjusted for the prevailing economic growth trend, is more overvalued than during the late 1920’s and the late 1990’s. (LINK) S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio is at an all-time high Total domestic corporate profits (w/o IVA/CCAdj) have grown at an annualized rate of .097% over the last five years. Prior to this period and since 2000, five year annualized profit growth was 7.95%. (note- period included two recessions) (LINK) Over the last ten years, S&P 500 corporations have returned more money to shareholders via share buybacks and dividends than they have earned. The top 200 S&P 500 companies have pension shortfalls totaling $382 billion and corporations like GE spent more on share buybacks ($45b) than the size of their entire pension shortfall ($31b) which ranks as the largest in the S&P 500. (LINK) Using data back to 1987, the yield to maturity on high-yield (non-investment grade) debt is in the 3rd percentile. Per Prudential as cited in the Wall Street Journal, yields on high-yield debt, adjusted for defaults, are now lower than those of investment grade bonds. Currently, the yield on the Barclays High Yield Index is below the expected default rate. Implied equity and U.S. Treasury volatility has been trading at the lowest levels in over 30 years, highlighting historic investor complacency. (LINK) Our financial markets are far more primed for a crash than they were in 2008. The only times in our entire history that are even comparable are the late 1920s just before the infamous crash of 1929 and the late 1990s just before the dotcom bubble burst. A whole lot of people out there seem to be entirely convinced that things will somehow be different this time.  They seem to believe that the laws of economics no longer apply and that we will never pay a significant price for decades of exceedingly foolish decisions. Overall, the world is now 217 trillion dollars in debt.  Earlier this year, Bill Gross raised eyebrows when he said that “our highly levered financial system is like a truckload of nitro glycerin on a bumpy road”, and I very much agree with him. There is no way that this is going to end well.  Yes, central bank manipulation may be enough to keep the party going for a little while longer, but eventually the whole thing is going to come crashing down in a disaster of unprecedented magnitude.

26 июля, 05:40

Bill Gross: A Recession Would "Probably Do The Economy Some Good"

Janus Portfolio Manager and purported “bond king” Bill Gross appeared on “Bloomberg Markets” to discuss his latest investor letter, in which he criticized loose-money policies of the world’s central banks, comparing them to gluttons who’ve feasted on bonds. The unprecedented stimulus measures adopted by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and others have created distortions in markets, rendering widely followed historical models like the Philips Curve and Taylor rule useless, Gross said. Because of the central banks’ bond-buying binge, which created $5 trillion of negative yielding sovereign debt, Gross said the yield curve my not need to flatten as much - i.e. short-term rates may not need to rise as aggressively - to trigger a slowdown in growth or even a recession. “I still think interest rates should be raised to a more normal level in order to favor business models that are currently being hurt like pension funds and insurance companies and so on,” Gross said. Counterintuitively, a slowdown might have more long-term benefits for the US economy than maintaining the status quo, according to Gross, who cited Joseph Schumpeter's theory about "creative destruction." “I simply warned that based upon our historical knowledge of yield curve flattening between 3-month Treasuries and 10 year Treasuries we may not have to flatten as much as historically in order to produce a growth slowdown or a recession. I actually think that a slowdown or a recession would probably do the economy some good. You clear out some of the dead wood and you prevent forest fires. It’s the same with concepts such as Schumpeter’s creative destruction, or Minsky's conclusions from five or ten years ago,” Hyman Minsky, an economist who spent his entire life in obscurity, but whose research found renewed relevance after the financial crisis, has been dead since 1996. But his "Minsky moment" theory - a study of how excessive debt levels can trigger an abrupt crash in asset valuations - has found renewed relevance. As Gross explained in his letter, in an economy with record levels of corporate and consumer debt, the cost of short term financing shouldn’t need to rise to the level of a 10-year Treasury note to trigger a recession. Indeed, “proportionality” would suggest that short-term interest rates only need to increase modestly to trigger a marked slowdown in growth. "Most destructive leverage – as witnessed with the pre-Lehman subprime mortgages – occurs at the short end of the yield curve as the cost of monthly interest payments increase significantly to debt holders. While governments and the U.S. Treasury can afford the additional expense, levered corporations and individuals in many cases cannot…But since the Great Recession, more highly levered corporations, and in many cases, indebted individuals with floating rate student loans now exceeding $1 trillion, cannot cover the increased expense, resulting in reduced investment, consumption and ultimate default. Commonsensically, a more highly levered economy is more growth sensitive to using short term interest rates and a flat yield curve, which historically has coincided with the onset of a recession." In his letter, Gross argued that the Fed should proceed with caution. This fall, not only will investors be grappling with rising rates and the beginning of the Fed’s balance-sheet unwind, but a looming battle over raising the debt ceiling is already promising to inject more volatility into markets. In a sign of investor dread surrounding the looming debt-ceiling battle, Treasuries expected to mature in mid-October have risen markedly in recent weeks, causing the 3mo-6mo curve to invert. The CBO has said the Treasury will run out of cash around then. Another sign that investors are worried about the short-term outlook for credit was Monday’s 3-month bill auction, which surprised the market with the highest yield since 2008. Investors will hear more from the Fed tomorrow after the close of its two-day July policy meeting. Since there’s no press conference scheduled, investors will be on the lookout for clues surrounding the balance sheet. 

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25 июля, 11:15

"Deeply-Flawed Western Economic Models" Are Undermining The Worst Global Recovery In History

With stocks at record highs, seemingly proving that everything must be awesome in the world, Chris Watling, chief executive of Longview Economics, shocked CNBC on Friday by reminding them that "this is undoubtedly the lowest quality economic recovery we have seen globally... full stop." The reason is simple, Watling continued, "the economic model is deeply flawed and the system in the west is deeply flawed, particularly in the English speaking part of the world and it needs to change." The Longview Economics CEO explained that a debt-laden global economy could be vulnerable to looming interest rate hikes because, "This is a world that is more indebted than it was before the global financial crisis in 2007, there's no productivity growth, asset prices are very elevated, a lot of debt that corporates have built up has gone to share buy backs (and) the number of 'zombie companies' has doubled since 2007." Watling's warnings confirm bond-king Bill Gross' recent warning that the course of global central banks toward tightening policy could be detrimental for the economic recovery. He argued that raising interest rates would increase the cost of short-term debt that corporations and individuals currently hold. When asked whether an imperfect system constituted a clear and present danger for the financial markets, Watling replied: "Whatever you want to call it doesn't really matter but these sorts of things always unwind when you tighten money. The problem is judging what is tight? And that is sort of the million dollar question." Will that pain begin in October?

21 июля, 04:36

Билл Гросс: Центральные банки должны проявлять осторожность при более жесткой политике

Известный американский финансист глава фонда Unusstrained Bond Fund Билл Гросс в своем интервью для Bloomberg заявил, что центральные банки должны проявлять осторожность при ужесточении политики. "Федеральной резервной системе не потребуется слишком много времени для повышения краткосрочных процентных ставок, что приведет к экономическому развороту, в результате которого задолженность студентов, корпораций и других заемщиков увеличится так как они будут не в состоянии погасить кредиты", - сказал финансист. С декабря 2015 года ФРС повысила ставку краткосрочных фондов четыре раза, в том числе дважды в этом году. Предполагаемая вероятность очередного повышения ставок в 2017 году составила около 40% на сегодняшний день на конец среды. Средняя целевая ставка ФРС составляет 1,375% в этом году, и до 2,94% в 2019 году. "Если краткосрочные ставки растут быстрее долгосрочных ставок, это приводит к кривой сглаживания доходности, исторически часто являющейся предшественником спадов, таких как финансовый кризис 2007-2009 годов", - отметил Гросс - "Банкиры и инвесторы должны с осторожностью рассматривать дополнительное ужесточение политики центробанка и "нормализацию" краткосрочных ставок". "Чтобы избежать кривой сглаживания и повысить долгосрочные ставки, ФРС должна сосредоточиться на сокращении таких активов, как 5-летние и 10-летние казначейские облигации, которые находятся в балансе в размере $4,5 трил",- сказал Гросс. "Как правило, рецессия или ужесточение центральных банков разрушаются творчески и позволяют добиться нового роста", - сказал он. "Я думаю, что ФРС будет продолжать затягивать и замедлять рост, а может быть, в ближайшие месяцы и годы начнется спад". Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

01 ноября 2016, 17:25

О текущей ситуации в мировой экономике

Данную публикацию сделал вчера на Афтершоке, где она вызвала довольно серьёзный интерес и высокое количество просмотров, посему решил продублировать и у себя в ЖЖ.В данной публикации я объединил две статьи одного русского финансового аналитика, которого сам очень люблю читать, но который к великому сожалению очень не часто выступает в публичном пространстве. Данные публикации вышли в разное время (17 июля и 30 октября), но в связи с тем, что носят теоретический характер, то первая нисколько не может считаться устаревшей, а вторая недавняя отлично дополняет первую.Прошу прощение за некоторые авторские стилистические ошибки - я не взял на себя смелость редакторской правки чужого текста.17 июля 2016   Сегодня решил выложить некоторые выдежрки из инвестиционной стратегии на второе полугодие, подготовленной для клиентов. Кому будет интересно, может ознакомиться с мыслями по поводу происходящего.   События, связанные с референдумом по выходу Великобритании из ЕС, падение доходности государственных облигаций стран G7, смещение доходностей в отрицательную зону, относительное облечение для развивающихся рынков (ЕМ), выражающиеся в увеличении (отскоке) valuations, стабилизации их валютных курсов – закономерная стадия развития глобальной ситуации на рынках. Как мы в прошлый раз указали – так называемый рефляционный момент будет доминировать в текущем году (хотя его влияние во втором полугодии будет сходить на нет). Последние аналитические отчеты, касающиеся ЕМ, даже поменяли резко тональность и стали описывать перспективы восстановления и даже роста на ЕМ, повышение таргетов и прогнозов по валютным курсам (от рубля до бразильского реала и т.д.). К сожалению, большинство аналитиков плохо понимает логику развития экономики, в какой точке находится глобальная экономика и закончился ли кризис или нет.   Попытаемся восстановить картинку происходящего, а также заглянуть немного в будущее.    События 2008 года знаменовали собою не столько кризис, а сколько завершение многолетнего долгового суперцикла, который начался в развитых странах в послевоенное время. Долговая пирамида, построенная в частном секторе оказалась настолько большой, что больше долгов домохозяйства развитых стран брать не могли, а банки оказались не готовы продолжать кредитовать их в прежних объемах. Для стабилизации экономик банки развитых стран приступили к агрессивной политики монетарного смягчения. Первым на сцену вышел ФРС – запустив в марте 2009 большую программу количественного смягчения. Казалось, решение найдено и кризис завершен. Уже летом 2009 доходность трежерис превысила 3%. Однако, буквально спустя полгода пошли первые звонки с другого континента – из небольшой страны Греции, которая начала сталкиваться с проблемой обслуживания своего государственного долга. Таким образом, начался второй этап кризис (или вторая волна, кому как удобно) – кризис теперь уже суверенного долга. Начало трясти Еврозону. И только вмешательство нового главы ЕЦБ Марио Драги, который вернул ЦБ статус кредитора последней инстанции, купировал кризис, разрастающийся на финансовых рынках. Впоследствии, ЕЦБ пошел по пути ФРС, запустив программу QE. Аналогичным путем пошли и два других крупнейших мировых центробанка – Банк Японии и Банк Англии. Пока западные центробанки боролись с кризисом в своих странах – очередная волна, на рубеже 2013-2014 года накрыла теперь уже развивающиеся страны. Последовало резкое падение стоимости активов в этих странах, девальвации этих валют, появились разные акронимы типа fragile 5 и тп. Причем это сопровождалось падение цен на весь товарный комплекс – от цен на металлы на нефть и газ. Наконец, в 2016 году дал старт еще одному этапу кризиса – развалу искусственных государственных образований – Британия проголосовала за выход из ЕС. Европейский встал на путь СССР, который прекратил свое существование. Голосование в Британии во многом симптоматично. Во-первых, во многих СМИ подаются и тиражируются абсолютно ложные утверждения, будто те, кто голосовал за выход, плохо были осведомлены о последствиях выхода Британии из ЕС или что основным мотивом их голосования было недовольство миграционной политикой. Как показывают повторные опросы – 92% голосовавших за выход Британии из ЕС – happy о готовы еще раз, если понадобится проголосовать за выход. Но самая главная причина – это то, что британцы во многом не видят экономических перспектив улучшения их жизни. Согласною статистики Банка Англии, которая ведется с 1850, реальные доходы британце постоянно росли, кроме последних 15 лет. Они даже падают в реальном выражении, это беспрецедентно. Фактически мы видим отдаление британских элит от народа, как бы пафосно это не звучало. Аналогичная ситуация наблюдается в континентальной Европе и за океаном. Отсюда мы видим, как быстро набирают силу разного рода популисты. Главный вывод, который мы можем сделать – это падение доверия к элитам со стороны населения. За последние 25-30 лет основными бенефициарами ускоренной глобализации стали жители развивающихся стран, чей уровень жизни существенно вырос, а также собственники активов или владельцы капитала развитых стран. Отсюда, эта картинка про Уоррена Баффета, чье состояние стало стремительно расти именно в последние 25 лет. А проигравшим оказался средний класс развитых стран – все 25 лет – это стагнация доходов, никакого роста. Отсюда и ломаются разного рода корреляции и экономические эффекты, такие как зависимости инфляции от роста доходов (заработных плат). Они не работают, как по причине отсутствие — это роста доходов. Весь рост производительности труда за эти годы ушел в пользу капиталиста, а не работника.   Теперь понятно, что мы подошли к еще одному этапу кризиса или волне, которая будет самой сложной и тяжелой, поскольку требует смены экономической модели.   Итак, что мы видим. Глобально идет падение доходностей по гос облигациям развитых стран, нулевые процентные ставки и агрессивная монетарная политика со стороны центральных банков. Такие страны как Германия, Швейцария, Япония фактически занимают средства под отрицательные процентные ставки. Это является следствием недостаточного совокупного спроса в мировой экономике – большой закредитованности домохозяйств и низким уровнем инвестиций со стороны бизнеса. В Европе, это особенно заметно, еще и политической невозможностью принятия фискальных мер. В результате, по оценке МВФ, каждый год глобально не находят своего применения в инвестиции около двух триллионов долларов сбережений, который через финансовых посредников – банки и инвестиционные фонды оседают в как раз в правительственных облигациях. Центральные банки, такие как ЕЦБ и Банк Японии выкупают эти облигации на свой баланс, превращая деньги коммерческих банков в избыточные резервы, которые опять начинают оседать на счетах в центробанках, не идя в реальный сектор. Центральные банки в ответ перешли к тому, что стали пенализировать (наказывать) коммерческие банки, вводя плату за размещение избыточных резервов на счетах в ЦБ. Но это не помогает, денежные мультипликаторы стран G7 все время после 2008 года продолжают падать.   Большинство удивляет такая конфигурация процесса – когда центральны банки накачивают финансовую систему ликвидностью, а инфляция не только не растет, а наоборот мы видим усиление дефляции. Это приводит к тому, что в условиях большого количества денег в экономике безрисковых активов становится все меньше (не забываем, что в ходе последних пяти лет многим государствам срезали рейтинги и ААА – это уже исключение). Иными словами, говоря, сколько ни создавай ликвидности, настоящих power money (денег №1), на которых оперирует вся глобальная финансовая система, становится все меньше. И по факту мы видим не монетарное расширение вследствие этого процесса, а наоборот – сжатие. Поэтому любое ужесточение монетарной политики со стороны США вызывает и будет вызвать тряску финансовой системы – падение стоимости активов, девальвацию валют против доллара, падение цен на сырье. Мы видим как в этой среде не работает экономическая догматика. Так, например, в теории, если страна имеет свободный плавающий валютный курс, то по большему счету для не важен рост доллара. Однако, мы это наблюдали в 2013-2015 годах, когда ФРС последовательно свернула программу QE и повысила процентную ставку, буквально все валюты стали падать против доллара. В итоге мы имеем zero sum game – когда все валюты развивающихся стран девальвировались против доллара и в итоге никому легче не стало. В результате, когда в течение 2008-2016 годов одни страны в ответ на кризис снизили ставки до нуля, другие девальвировали свои валюты, а темпов роста экономик мы так и не увидели, дефляция как была так и осталась, то теперь у стран остался только один способ абсорбции экономических шоков – таким абсорбентом будет выпуск или ВВП. Поэтому те доходности, которые мы видим в развитых странах по длинным гос облигациям свидетельствуют о том, что в ближайшее десятилетие, а может быть и не одно, нас ждет стагнация экономик, дальнейшее их замедление и падение темпов экономического роста.   То есть мы будем наблюдать уменьшение экономического пирога в развитых странах. И единственным инструментом борьбы с таким кризисом (явлением) является создание некого механизма перераспределения благ в экономике между теми, кто получает доход от капитала и доход в виде заработной платы. Любое перераспределение благ в пользу работника, а не капиталиста – это большой минус для рынка. К примеру, те кто сейчас решит инвестировать в индекс S&P 500, к примеру, через 10 лет будет иметь отрицательный результат на свои вложения. Более того, если политики или элиты не смогут найти такой механизм перераспределения доходов между условно бедными и богатыми, как это было, например, в первой половине 20-го века, когда в кризис была создана система welfare, то человеческой истории известны только два естественных механизма корректировки это процесса – война, в результате которой происходит потеря благосостояния богатого класса, либо революция. И самой уязвимой в этом отношении является Европа или ЕС, который единым является только на бумаге. Кризис 2010-2012 в Европе казалось должен был подтолкнуть ее к созданию единого финансового механизма, результатом которого явилась бы коллективная, солидарная ответственность по долгам своих стран-участников, единая система гарантирования депозитов и тд. В результате мы видели порою прямо противоположенные действия, когда, например, в прошлом году в разгар переговоров между ЕС и Греций ЕЦБ просто на несколько дней закрыл программу ликвидности для греческих банков – ELA. У стран же участников этого союза нет возможности абсорбции экономических шоков – собственных валют. Единственное, что может смягчать этот процесс – это действия центральных банков. Например, как только ФРС сделала паузу и не повысила ставку в первом полугодии 2016 года – это принесло временное облечение для развивающихся стран, куда хлынули денежные потоки в поисках доходности и кэрри. Как только ФРС намекнет на обратное, эти потоки также легко устремятся в узкую входную дверь, только в противоположенном направлении.30 октября 2016    Примерно последние полгода наблюдается процесс «превращения» бывших спекулянтов в долгосрочных инвесторов. Поиск инвестиционных идей выходит из узких границ локального рынка и перекидывается на самый ликвидный, большой и с самой богатой историей рынок – американский. Теперь даже российские управляющие компании предлагают инвестировать своим пайщикам в акции американских компаний, создавая разные фонды от специализированных (например, инвестиции в акции технологического сектора) и заканчивая  общими фондами типа – «акции Мира», предлагая уникальные методики анализа и отбора акций в состав таких фондов. То есть, такая УК хочет поконкурировать с местными американскими игроками, используя свой локальный опыт управления активами. Насколько он будет успешным покажет время, но это напоминает поведение российских компаний, например, металлургического сектора, акционеры которых решили в 2008 году выйти за пределы российского рынка и купить активы в США. Причем сделали это очень талантливо – прямо на пике рынка. Чем эта история закончилась хорошо известно. Аналогично поступают российские портфельный инвесторы в лице УК, которые на пике рынка 2016 года создают фонды для инвестирования в рынок акций США. Также предлагаются различные идеи во что инвестировать на американском рынке лет так на 10, чтобы получить кратный рост своих инвестиций.    Я уже писал, что на отрезке  в 10 лет (2016- 2026 года) реальный возврат на инвестиции, которые делаете сегодня в рынок акций США, будет стремиться к нулю. Одурманенные трендом роста, который берет свое начало в марте 2009 года, российские инвесторы буквально смеются над этой мыслью. Это, может не удивительно, особенно если под маской такого инвестора скрывается человек, пришедший на рынок в 2009 году, как раз после кризиса 2008 года, который ничего кроме роста американского рынка за свою карьеру на рынке и не видел. Тем более было столько поводов для обвала, а разные гуру и эксперты предрекали его с завидным постоянством. Более того, отдельные участники используют такой момент в маркетинговых целях, создавая иллюзию бесконечного роста рынка США, начинают привлекать потенциальных инвесторов, умело жонглируя разными именами известных инвесторов, главным из которых является Уоррен Баффет. Действительно, американский рынок дал миру много известных имен инвесторов – Билла Гросса, Сета Клармана, Питера Линча, Джона Богла, Билла Миллера, Уильяма О Нила, Дэвида Дремана и, конечно же, главной вишенкой на торте уже упоминавшегося Уоррена Баффета. Это разные люди, с разными методиками и подходами к инвестициям, но их объединяет одно. Все свои деньги и имена они сделали в последние 35 лет.Поэтому прежде чем делать долгосрочные инвестиции в американский рынок и привлекать на него инвесторов, нужно разобраться в фундаментальных причинах роста рынка акций США, сделать такой анализ и понять, что способствовало появлению такого количества громких имен среди инвесторов и почему Баффетов станет меньше. А сделав фундаментальный анализ и поняв причины роста рынка акций США, показывать потенциальным российским инвесторам реальную картину относительного того, чего ожидать от долгосрочных инвестиций, сделанных в 2016 году.Жизнь так устроена, что зачастую не ясно, что привело к успеху (или власти, к примеру) того или иного человека – случай или какое-то стечение обстоятельств, порою пускай даже невероятное. Почему одни добиваются успеха, а другие – нет, почему одни делают себе имя в какой-то области человеком деятельности – а другие терпят крах. Почему в конце концов в русском языке мы часто говорим выражение – «потерпеть неудачу»? Как бы намекая на то, что всему причина- это отсутствие удачи. Или, вот к примеру, можем сказать, говоря о каких-то долгосрочных вещах – что «я родился в не в свое время». Поэтому очень сложно, а порою и невозможно, понять критерии успеха и факторы, которые повлияли на него. Оставляю читателя самостоятельно подумать на эту тему. Вернемся к фундаментальному анализу американского рынка акций.   Любопытно, что к 1980 году на американском рынке акций не было инвесторов, которые бы сделали состояние на нем. Что же произошло после этого? Почему в следующие годы они начали появляться один за другим?   Это были великолепные три декады для владения американскими активами – и неважно будь то акции или облигации. Без разницы! Покупай, что хочешь и держи! Вот оно золотое время стратегии buy and hold! Инвестиционный портфель, составленный наполовину из акций и из 30-ти летних правительственных облигаций принес 8% на инвестированный капитал в годовом выражении в период с конца 1982 года по конец 2013 года. Используя данные с 1871 года, не было такого 31- однолетнего периода с такой высокой доходностью. Были периоды, когда портфель акций показывали лучшую, были когда облигации опережали в доходности акции. Но не было ни одного промежутка сравнимого по времени, чтобы и акции и облигации одинаково хорошо перфомили. Этот период, несмотря на крахи рынка 2000 и 2008 года, действительно был самым уникальным в истории американского рынка.Какие же фундаментальные факторы лежали в основе этого 35-ти летнего периода, который дал миру столько известных имен звезд фондового рынка? Таких драйверов было шесть.Ключи будущего великого (даже величайшего) bull market лежали в неглубоком кармане Пола Волкера, главы ФРС начала 1980-х годов. Именно он положил начало борьбе с инфляцией, которую потом все его последователи центробанкиры сделали своим приоритетом, такой особенной мантрой. Как показал опыт 1970-х годов – инфляция стала главным врагом экономики и рынка акций, которая как коррозия разъедала их. Инфляция к началу 1980-х была около 20%. И повышение процентных ставок ФРС к 18% стало решительным шагом в борьбе с инфляцией, которая к середине 1990-х снизилась до однозначных величин. Такое снижение инфляции стало главным драйвером роста для всех финансовых активов – как облигаций, так и акций.Вторым драйвером, соответственно, стали падающие процентные ставки. Они были естественным отражением падающей инфляции. Это было хорошим знаком как для облигаций, так и для акций, которые испытывали переоценку вследствие снижения стоимости денег. Когда рынок акций показал свое дно в середине 1982 года, 30-ти летние трежерис имели доходность 14,2%, а трех месячные векселя приносили 13,5%. Движение с этих уровней привело нас к уровням 2,3% по 30-ти летним облигациям в 2016 году и нулевым ставкам по краткосрочным векселям.Третьим драйвером стало значительное улучшение прибыльности компаний США и их финансов. В начале 1980-х корпоративные финансы американских компаний были  в ужасном состоянии. Годы высокой инфляции нанесли серьезный ущерб балансам американских компаний. В то время еще, к примеру, даже не было возможности учета амортизации. Рост производительности труда был очень низок, а, соответственно маржинальность бизнеса низка. Высокая инфляция давала возможность компаниям не думать о контроле затрат и думать об улучшении эффективности бизнеса. До тех пор пока компании чувствовали, что они могут просто повышать цены, а не ограничивать рынок труда в его стремлении требовать больших зар плат или вкладываться (инвестировать) в инновации или просто улучшать производительность труда. Все существенным образом поменялось, когда инфляция начала падать. Компании стали бороться за эффективность бизнеса, улучшать производительность. К этому стали подталкивать их также, то рост доллара в первой половине 1980-х, дерегулирование многих отраслей во второй половине 80-х, а также глобализация, которая дала еще один толчок (и самый существенный) в 1990-х и первой половине 2000-х.  Еще один толчок дали технологические улучшения, которые привели стремительному росту производительности и вывели маржинальность бизнеса на максимальные значения.Следующим драйвером рост valuations – оценок компаний инвесторами. В середине 1982 года S&P 500 торговался на уровне только лишь 7.7 Р/Е – 31-м летнем дне. Мультипликатор Шиллера составлял 9.7 – это было еще одно дно, аж с 1945 года, окончания Второй мировой войны. Другими словами рынок был экстремально дёшев и был огромный потенциал для его переоценки вследствие падения инфляции и процентных ставок, а также улучшения корпоративной эффективности.Пятым драйвером роста рынка явился интерес населения к рынку акций. Рынок акций США находился в 14-ти летнем цикле падения, прежде чем цены достигли своего дна в середине 1982 года. С двузначной инфляцией и такими же ставками инвесторы предпочитали депозиты акциям. В середине 1982 года акции составляли 24% от портфеля активов домохозяйств (исключая активы, удерживаемые пенсионными фондами и страховыми компаниями), а в депозитах 55%. Но по мере роста рынка акций у инвесторов просыпалась любовь  к акциям, предвещая драматический разворот в этом соотношении. И к 2013 году аллокация в акции и депозиты изменилась в обратную сторону – 54% — акции и только 29% депозиты.Ну, и наконец, последний драйвер. Это — так называемый ДОЛГОВОЙ СУПЕРЦИКЛ. Комбинация из падающих процентов ставок и эпоха дерегулирование рынка, начатая в начале 1980-х годов привели к массивному кредитному буму в американской экономике. Этому тренду начали активно подыгрывать члены ФРС – предоставляя стимулы экономике при  каждом снижении деловой активности (рецессии). Выбор в пользу перезапуска кредита в экономике всегда был проще, нежели чем ликвидация накапливающихся дисбалансов в экономике. Такой долговой суперцикл оказал существенную поддержку рынку акций, а ФРС до сих пор пытается разными путями возобновить новый кредитный цикл.Поэтому очень сложно, смотря в зеркало заднего вида, судить чего больше было у известных инвесторов удачи или умения. Но можно точно сказать, что они родились в нужное время и как говорят у нас – попали в струю.Следующие 30 лет будут непростыми и мы наверняка увидим в действии концепцию mean reversion, которая выравнивает на долгом временном промежутке эксцессы, которые случились на предшествующем временном отрезке. Конечно, люди найдут выход из ситуации, испытав очередные потрясения и кризисы. Можно с уверенностью говорить, что это будут годы не лучшие для владельцев капитала. Некоторые получат на него совсем маленький возврат, а некоторые его потеряют в бурлящей и кипящей воде рынка. Наверняка, появятся люди, которые сделают себе имя на обвалах рынка, и ими также будут восхищаться и подражать. Все в этом мире циклично.В любом случае, в этот период времени придется решать дисбалансы, накопившиеся в экономике. Можно предполагать, что они будут решаться через налоговую систему, с помощью которой будет произведена болезненная редистрибьюция доходов и богатства от владельцев активов в пользу социально незащищенных слоев общества, поскольку мы видим угрожающий стабильности разрыв между самыми богатыми и самыми бедными. Да, в общем то, мы уже наблюдаем сокращение среднего класса в Америке, рост популизма и недовольство элитой.В этой ситуации приходится пожелать только удачи тем российским инвесторам, которые терпели долгие 35 лет и ждали точки входа в рынок, пропускали коррекции в 50%,  и вот, наконец, в 2016 году, на 35-м топе рынка решили инвестировать в рынок акций США. Не зря филологи говорят, что метафизическая сущность русского человека, выражение его ментальности проявляется в таких словах как – авось, небось, да как-нибудь.Отсюда http://smart-lab.ru/my/Endeavour/blog/all/

05 мая 2016, 01:03

Гросс: роботизация приведет к "социализму поневоле"

Билл Гросс, один из самых успешных управляющих за всю историю современных рынков облигаций, считает, что власти западных стран в дальнейшем будут вынуждены все активнее печатать деньги для поддержки своих экономик и населения.