After meandering around $300 for the last two weeks, Bitcoin Cash has rocketed higher in the last few days - now trading at record highs over $900. As Bitcoin Cash has surged, Bitcoin has been falling (now back below $4000) as Bitcoin Cash mining profitability becomes more appealing to miners. Bitcoin Cash has surged to a new record high in the last few days, now triple the market cap of Ripple and over half the market cap of Ethereum... And Bitcoin has been sliding... So just what is going on with BCH? Coinivore explains... As blocks continue to process, BCH edges its way closer to the legacy Bitcoin’s network mining profitability. It’s what could be known as the “flippening,” and block 479808 is the block to watch if it’s going to happen (this weekend), Coindesk reported. Block 479,808 (set for this weekend) will likely trigger a difficulty adjustment downwards 50%, and if the prices of bitcoin and bitcoin cash stay the same, this means miners will make almost double on bitcoin cash what they would on bitcoin. As BCH mining profitability becomes more appealing to miners, the chance of other mining pools using hash power for BCH is greater, especially if the new kid on block Bitcoin Cash’s markets continue to rise. Now, why would miners abandon the legacy Bitcoin? Because BCH chain’s difficulty has also dropped, and at the same time the price has risen over 75% in the last two days. As such, Bitcoin cash mining (BCH) is now currently 2% percent more profitable to mine than the legacy Bitcoin (BTC). Another reason is the legacy Bitcoin blockchain charges higher fees on transactions, so miners must take into account the extra 1.5 BTC per block on Bitcoin (about $6,000 USD) while Bitcoin Cash offers very low fees under $50 USD. All around BCH just seems like the more attractive opportunity for miners. The original economic code that led to Bitcoin's great success is alive and well in the form of #BitcoinCash. Watch what happens next: pic.twitter.com/H9SeCvGR8C — Roger Ver (@rogerkver) August 18, 2017 Additionally, Coindesk notes that new exchange volume is also helping drive BCH higher... While both bitcoin and bitcoin cash share a transaction history, there's at least one major differential that changes their markets – bitcoin cash didn't inherent bitcoin's expansive global exchange network. This means while bitcoin is widely available for trading across continents, only a few major players stepped up early to add Bitcoin Cash. Still, signs suggest more exchanges could soon see a value in doing so. Case in point, the trade volume in bitcoin cash observed during the recent run was largely denominated in the South Korean won today. Yesterday, about $1.2 billion of the $2 billion in total bitcoin cash trade volume, or around 56%, appeared to be transacted in won on just three South Korean exchanges – Bithumb, Coinone and Korbit – according to data from CoinMarketCap. Such a strong regional showing could indicate pent up demand – but whether it's from sellers seeking to sell, or buyers looking to buy, that remains unclear. Prior to the increase, though, bitcoin cash trading volume was relatively light earlier this week, and it increased roughly tenfold today. Finally, we note that Faster processing times may be appealing, as CNBC reports that Bitcoin Cash faster processing is what likely caused 40 percent of investors increasing their bet on it.
Must See Charts – Gold Hedges USD Devaluation, Rise in Oil, Food and Cost of Living Since "Tricky Dicky"
Must See Charts – Gold Hedges USD Devaluation, Rise in Oil, Food and Cost of Living Since "Tricky Dicky" - Gold hedges massive ongoing devaluation of U.S. Dollar- 46th anniversary of 'Tricky Dicky' ending Gold Standard (see video)- Savings destroyed by currency creation and now negative interest rates- Long-term inflation figures show gold a hedge against rising cost of fuel, food and cost of living- $20 food and beverages basket of 1971 cost $120.17 in 2017- Household items increased by average of 2000% and oil by 5,373% since 1913- Gold gained 5,669% since 1913; by nearly 3,000% since 1971- Dollar has been reserve currency of world in the period and most other currencies have seen greater devaluation- Evidence of gold’s role as inflation and currency devaluation hedge Editor: Mark O'Byrne ‘US dollar Purchasing Power As measured By Gold’Source: Goldchartsrus You don’t need 'Tricky Trump' to devalue the dollar, it’s been doing that since 1913 and 'Tricky Dicky' in 1971 In 2015 President Donald Trump made headlines when he told a town hall event in Atkinson, New Hampshire about how his father had once given him a ‘small loan of a million dollars.’ Outcry swept around the media who asked how much the future President was really in touch with the common voter. Whilst Trump’s reference to ‘small’ was in relation to the (apparent) size of the empire he subsequently built he may as well have been referring to the value of a million dollars now and how small it is compared to in 1975 when he was lent the money. $1 million dollars was a lot of currency in 1975. Today it will barely buy you a nice house in a nice city. Using today’s CPI data Trump Sr’s $1 million loan would today be equivalent to $4.4 million. The purchasing power of a 1975 US dollar has fallen by over 400%. It has fallen a lot more since 1971. In this week 46 years ago on August 15 1971, President Nixon announced the U.S. Dollar would completely cut ties with sound money gold (see video below). Without gold backing and gold as a monetary anchor, we can now see just how much the purchasing power of the consumer dollar has declined since 1971. You can see an even better example of the dollar’s collapse in purchasing power when measured in gold ounces (see charts above). Prices climb by over 2000% since 1913 and creation of the Fed ‘[Since 1913] the general public and policymakers have focused almost constantly on inflation; they have feared it, bemoaned it, sought it, and even tried to whip it.’ Bureau of Labour Statistics. In 1970, after many decades of dollar devaluation, Herbert W. Armstrong quoted the Labor Department’s figures for how much $5 would have purchased in 1913: "15 pounds of potatoes, 10 pounds of flour, 5 pounds of sugar, 5 pounds of chuck roast, 3 pounds of round steak, 3 pounds of rice, 2 pounds each of cheese and bacon, and a pound each of butter and coffee; that money would also get you two loaves of bread, 4 quarts of milk and a dozen eggs. This would leave you with 2 cents for candy.” Percent (%) change in US prices (1913 - 2017) What changed in 1913? The US adopted the Federal Reserve Banking System and the journey towards dismantling the gold standard and currency debasement began. In the same year the United States government started tracking prices. This was thanks to President William Howard Taft who signed a bill promoting the Department of Labor to a Cabinet-level Department. Following this move the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was created in 1921 and backdated to 1913. Many things have changed since 1913, the most obvious is that the US Dollar is no longer backed by gold and that inflation has been slowly destroying wealth. Despite government efforts to track prices, little has been done about the impact of inflation and our loss of purchasing power. This is best illustrated not just with gold but through day-to-day items that we can all relate to. Below it is clear to see that since before the beginning of the World War I prices of everyday items have climbed by over 2,000%, on average. We can also appreciate how much the U.S. Dollar has depreciated in value when we consider that a $100 bill at the end of the First World War has the equivalent purchasing power of $1,196, today. This is in significant contrast to the price and purchasing power of store of value gold. We often talk about the role of gold during times of war and upheaval. This seems particularly relevant today as Trump and North Korea engage in saber-rattling. The table above shows just how important gold was during war time for the millions of people who were uprooted in the run up to and in 1914 and found themselves refugees, without a country to call home and in need of a borderless currency which would serve them wherever they found themselves. The children or grandchildren of those who escaped with gold would own as asset which has protected and grown their wealth and is today worth over 5,000% more than it was in 1913. CPI measure, questionable but available When we complain that food and other household items are becoming more expensive what we are usually experiencing is the devaluation in the US dollar and impact on inflation. To give you an idea of how much the dollar has fallen in value since the removal of the gold standard in 1971, the purchasing power of $100 then would be equivalent to $616.65 today. By comparison, $100 worth of gold in 1971 is now worth nearly $3,700. Today the CPI is the fiat-centric world’s way of tracking consumer prices and, therefore, inflation. We rarely hear about the depreciation of our currencies, instead we are bamboozled with odd figures which rarely translate into our every day life. Despite this, we are still able to use CPI as real evidence of the rising cost of living over time. This is particularly interesting when you look at the change in food prices using 1971 as a base year. We use 1971 as since then the US currency has not been tied to or associated with gold. In the period since then we have seen a slow but damaging impact on the value of people’s wealth and the purchasing power of their earnings. As with our piece on British food prices, British inflation and rising cost of living, we would have preferred to have used actual price information in order to look at the depreciation of the U.S. Dollar. Unfortunately individual price information isn’t readily available for the periods of most interest. Below you can see how much the CPI numbers have increased for items which are considered key in an household’s food basket. When you consider 1971 = 100 as the base year and price, you can see the dramatic changes in prices. The CPI can be misleading and confusing. When looking at the CPI data for the last 46 years it was interesting to note that halfway through the years the BLS decided to change the base year, thus making it appear as though inflation had not increased at quite the rate it had been. The numbers above have been adjusted to the best of our ability. One thing we also noticed when gathering the data was the climb in price of unprocessed foods, look at potatoes, carrots and apples as an example of freshly grown produce. As we looked deeper into data between 1971 and 2017 the list of foods included in the CPI basket grew, thanks to the advent of processed and unhealthy food all of which appear to be more affordable and suffering less from price climbs. As our currency has been debased so has our food. For those who are interested in actual prices, rather than the CPI data, we were only able to gather certain figures from the earliest point of 1980. Here you can see that on average the price of food has risen sharply. % change in (US) prices 1980 - 2017 This is quite a powerful indication of how gold has acted as a hedge against inflation. Even for those who bought gold, nine years into the bull market and near the top in 1980, gold protected their purchasing power. Not just about food As we mentioned when we looked at the depreciation of the British pound, the price of food is not the only thing to hurt the average consumer. Fuel is the backbone of any economy, it affects the price of living both directly and indirectly. It affects the price of your food through to the cost of the journey from the farm to the fork. The price of oil, fuel and energy related items have increased massively since 1971. The graph above, courtesy of the St Louis FRED database, shows just how much the price of fuel items have increased since 1971. The depreciation of the dollar, just a myth? A couple of years ago Business Insider 'Stalwart' Joe Weisenthal, now Bloomberg presenter and host wrote about how the depreciation of the US Dollar was a ‘myth’. He based this on the logic that hardly anyone keeps their cash in a box or 'under the mattress' anymore, but (he conceded): ‘Yes, if someone had a bunch of cash in 1959 and literally put it in a shoebox, they'd have lost a lot of money over the last several decades" But what happens when you don’t keep your money to yourself? You have to put it in a bank account or invest it in stocks, bonds, IRAs etc. All of those things come with counterparty risk. For some of us, it makes sense to hold a percentage of our wealth outside of the banking and financial system. However we cannot do this with paper bank notes as, as Mr Weisenthal reminds us, it just loses its value over time. This is why we recommend clients hold some of their savings in gold and silver. You are not keeping it in the banking system, you do not need to ‘fear’ the impact of inflation and you certainly do not need to worry about counterparties either devaluing it or trying to confiscate it - if owned in safer jurisdictions such as Singapore and Switzerland. Gold has acted as hedge against inflation and a financial insurance against the tyranny of central bank policies, throughout history but no more so than in the last century. No matter banking system, measure of inflation or government your country has, one ounce of gold remains one ounce of gold. It is the same and is recognised everywhere which confers vitally important liquidity. It is clear to see from the charts above that the fiat currency system works against the long-term desire to protect and grow our wealth. This is thanks to both the fractional reserve banking system but also thanks to the confiscatory practices of governments and powerful the financial industry and the currency debasement of central banks. As former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said himself “In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.” We are no longer on a gold standard, nor are we likely to be on one for the foreseeable future. But this does not mean savers cannot implement their own version in their portfolios. We all need to eat and we all need to use fuel, but we must learn to protect ourselves from the ongoing devaluation of the dollar and all fiat currencies in order to ensure we can keep doing what we need to do before our savings are destroyed by the fiat monetary system. News and Commentary Gold, silver soar after US Fed minutes; palladium hits over 16-year high (IndiaTimes.com) Gold ends higher as Trump disbands 2 White House advisory groups (MarketWatch.com) Gold edges up after gaining on softer dollar (Reuters.com) Unlike Bitcoin - "Gold has demonstrated ability to preserve value under all circumstances " - Morgan Stanley (Bloomberg.com) Bitcoin Is Literally Soaring Into Space After Rocket-Like Surge (Bloomberg.com) Source: David Stockman via Daily Reckoning 5 Charts Prove Market A Bubble (DailyReckoning.com) Bitcoin is a bubble – but bubbles change the world (MoneyWeek.com) Corporate Employers Flee Pensions With Gap Topping $375 Billion (Bloomberg.com) This is what every ETF investor needs to know today (StansBerryChurcHouse.com) What's so special about gold? - Lundin (PeakProsperity.com) Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 17 Aug: USD 1,285.90, GBP 998.12 & EUR 1,096.74 per ounce16 Aug: USD 1,270.15, GBP 985.13 & EUR 1,082.29 per ounce15 Aug: USD 1,274.60, GBP 986.92 & EUR 1,084.05 per ounce14 Aug: USD 1,281.10, GBP 987.34 & EUR 1,085.48 per ounce11 Aug: USD 1,288.30, GBP 993.67 & EUR 1,096.47 per ounce10 Aug: USD 1,278.90, GBP 985.39 & EUR 1,091.67 per ounce09 Aug: USD 1,267.95, GBP 974.80 & EUR 1,079.79 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 17 Aug: USD 17.02, GBP 13.23 & EUR 14.55 per ounce16 Aug: USD 16.68, GBP 12.96 & EUR 14.25 per ounce15 Aug: USD 16.89, GBP 13.12 & EUR 14.38 per ounce14 Aug: USD 16.97, GBP 13.09 & EUR 14.39 per ounce11 Aug: USD 17.09, GBP 13.18 & EUR 14.53 per ounce10 Aug: USD 17.08, GBP 13.14 & EUR 14.57 per ounce09 Aug: USD 16.59, GBP 12.76 & EUR 14.14 per ounce Recent Market Updates - World’s Largest Hedge Fund Bridgewater Buys $68 Million of Gold ETF In Q2- Diversify Into Gold Urges Dalio on Linkedin – “Militaristic Leaders Playing Chicken Risks Hellacious War”- Gold Has Yet Another Purpose – Help Fight Cancer- Gold Up 2%, Silver 5% In Week – Gundlach, Gartman and Dalio Positive On Gold- Great Disaster Looms as Technology Disrupts White Collar Workers- Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat- Silver Mining Production Plummets 27% At Top Four Silver Miners- Gold Consolidates On 2.5% Gain In July After Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline- Gold Coins and Bars See Demand Rise of 11% in H2, 2017- Greenspan Warns Stagflation Like 1970s “Not Good For Asset Prices”- What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi- Bitcoin, ICO Risk Versus Immutable Gold and Silver- This Is Why Shrinkflation Is Making You Poor Important Guides For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017: Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK) Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.
Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog, I don’t live in an echo chamber, partly because there aren’t enough people out there who think like me, but also because I constantly and intentionally attempt to challenge my worldview by reading stuff from all over the political map. I ingest as much as I can from a wide variety of intelligent sources, picking and choosing what makes sense to me, and then synthesizing it the best I can. Though I’m certainly grounded in certain key principles, my perspective on specific issues remains malleable as I take in additional information and perspectives. I try to accept and acknowledge my own ignorance and view life as a journey of constant mental, emotionally and spiritual growth. If I’m not growing my capacity in all of those realms until the day I die, I’m doing it wrong. Life should be seen as a battle against one’s own ignorance, as opposed to an obsession with the ignorance of others. You can’t legislate morality, nor can you legislate wisdom. The only way the world will improve on a long-term sustainable basis is if more of us get wise. That’s a personal journey and it’s our individual duty to accept it. While I’m only in control of my own behavior, this doesn’t mean that the behavior of others is irrelevant to my life. Unfortunately, what I see happening to the population of America right now seems very troublesome and foreboding. What I’m witnessing across the board is hordes of people increasingly separating themselves into weird, unthinking cults. Something appears to have snapped in our collective consciousness, and many individuals I used to respect (on both sides of the political spectrum) are becoming disturbingly polarized and hysterical. People are rapidly morphing into radicalized mental patients. What’s worse, this environment is providing a backdrop for the most destructive people of my lifetime - neoconservatives and neo liberals - to preen around on corporate media as “the voices of reason.” This is one of the most perverse and dangerous side-effects of the current political climate. As I noted earlier today on Twitter: What the entrenched political class is doing now, is exactly what the Fed did after the crisis. Posing as saviors to a disaster they created — Michael Krieger (@LibertyBlitz) August 16, 2017 This is how humans who are dangerous failures stay in power. They claim they'll help handle a problem of their own doing. — Michael Krieger (@LibertyBlitz) August 16, 2017 If in your disgust with Trump, you’re willing to run into the cold embrace of these destroyers of the middle class and the Middle East, you’ll get what you deserve . In contrast, if we really want to deal with our very real and very systemic problems, the last thing we need is a population-level mental breakdown that leads to a longing for the criminally destructive political status quo, yet that’s exactly what seems to be happening. Ok fine, so everything seems to be rapidly collapsing, but what are we supposed to do? First of all, don’t lose your minds. As I suggested in February’s post, Why Increased Consciousness is the Only Path Forward: As noted earlier, Wilber thinks 10% is a key tipping point. In other words, if we can get 10% of the population to center around a yellow second-tier level of thought, which consists of a momentous leap in consciousness, the entire world will change for the better. I agree. I’m not here trying to sell you a seminar on how to expand your consciousness; rather, I think these article can help spark some sort of revelation in the minds of many of you who are already at yellow, or at least at the cusp of such a transformation. Since consciousness can and does regress under conditions of stress and fear, it’s extremely important to be conscious of your consciousness so that you don’t fall back into lower states. Unfortunately, I see many people regressing at the moment, and I see the media as an intentional force in trying to get people to lower their consciousness. A perfect way to tell if someone is operating at a low level of consciousness is if they’re constantly placing tens of millions of their fellow citizens into an outside group they subsequently demonize. It’s perfectly fine and healthy to harshly criticize the system itself and the many powerful individuals doing awful things within it, but once you start dehumanizing large swaths of the population as a matter of your worldview, you are most certainly on a very counterproductive path that will lead to merely a blackhole of nothingness for society. Beyond maintaining one’s sanity, it’s imperative that conscious humans create systems and communities that have as little connection as possible to the existing and rapidly disintegrating paradigm. This will create “anti-fragile” units of strength within the collapsing Potemkin village socio-economic structure that dominates our culture right now. Some of these projects need to be local, while others can be global. Community farming/food production is a great example of a local initiative, while Bitcoin (and cryptocurrencies in general), represent global initiatives to replace the hopelessly corrupt and archaic entrenched financial system. While crazy, power-obsessed tribes focus on taking over the hopelessly corrupt centralized government in Washington D.C., we need to continue to build separate, decentralized paradigms — and there isn’t much time to waste. Fortunately, there are plenty of very decent, very conscious people out there. I want this piece to provide encouragement to those of you already engaged in this invaluable work, as well as inspiration for those of you looking for an outlet for your creative and intellectual energies. It’s never been more important to keep our heads steady and not permit ourselves to be sucked into the mental sickness infecting so many of our fellow humans. It’s imperative that we vigilantly guard our wisdom and consciousness, because the best solutions will only come from a place of spiritual and mental health. If you descend into the gutter with everyone else, your output will also end up looking like trash. That’s the last thing we need. Stay strong and stay conscious.
Authored by Michael Lebowitz via 720Global.com, Currency was first developed about 4000 years ago. Its genius was in the ability to supplant barter thus greatly improving trade and providing a better means for storing value. As illustrated in our title, currency has taken on many different physical forms through the years. Given the recent advances in technology, is it any surprise the latest form of currency resides in the ether-sphere? In this article we explore the basics of cryptocurrencies and the important innovation they support, blockchain. We also offer an idea about whether or not Bitcoin, or another cryptocurrency, can become a true currency worthy of investment. A Primer on Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Cryptocurrency is an independent, digital currency that uses cryptology to maintain privacy of transactions and control the creation of the respective currency. While not recognized as legal tender, cryptocurrencies are becoming more popular for legal and illegal transactions alike. Bitcoin (BTC), developed in 2009, is the most popular of the cryptocurrencies. It accounts for over half the value of the more than 750 cryptocurrencies outstanding. In this article we refer to cryptocurrencies generally as BTC, but keep in mind there are differences among the many offerings. Also consider that, while BTC may appear to be the currency of choice, Netscape and AOL shareholders can tell you that early market leadership does not always translate into future market dominance. Before explaining how BTC is created, acquired, stored, used and valued, it is vital to understand blockchain technology, the innovation that spawned BTC. As we researched this topic, we read a lot of convoluted descriptions of what blockchain is and the puzzling algorithms that support it. In the following paragraphs, we provide a basic description of blockchain. If you are interested in learning more, we recommend the following two links as they are relatively easy to understand. The Ultimate 3500-word guide in plain English to understand Blockchain – Mohit Mamoria A blockchain explanation your parents could understand – Jamie Skella Blockchain is an open database or book of records that can store any kind of data. A blockchain database, unlike all other databases, is stored real time and is accessible for anyone to view its complete history of data. The term block refers to a grouping of transactions, while chain refers to the linkages of the blocks. When a BTC transaction is completed BTC “miners” work to solve the cryptology algorithm that will enable them to link it to the chain of historical transactions. As a reward for being the first to solve the calculation, the miner receives “newly minted” BTC. As the chain grows, the effort needed to solve and verify the algorithms increase in complexity and demand greater computing power. As an aside consider the following statement by Bitcoin Watch (courtesy Goldman Sachs): “BTC worldwide computational output is currently over 350 exaflops – 350,000 petaflops – or more than 1400 times the combined capacity of the top 500 supercomputers in the world.” Needless to say, a tremendous amount of computing resources and energy are being used by BTC miners, and it is still in its infancy. Could these resources be better employed in other industries, and if so, how much productivity growth is BTC leeching from the economy? The takeaway is that blockchain is an open, real-time database that provides anonymity to its users. It is not controlled or regulated (yet) by any government. BTC miners, driven by the incentive to earn BTC, and fees at times, verify and authenticate the database. Blockchain technology is incredibly powerful and will likely revolutionize data management regardless of whether cryptocurrencies thrive or disappear. BTC Bitcoin Mining (Creation): New Bitcoins are created as payment to BTC miners that solve the aforementioned calculations that verify transaction data and link it to the blockchain. This ingenious reward system incentivizes miners to compete to perform these calculations, enabling the blockchain to exist. Currently there are approximately 16 million bitcoins outstanding out of a proposed limit of 21 million. As the blockchain grows, the calculations required to mine BTC and add to the chain become more complex, making each bitcoin harder and more costly to earn than the prior one. Obtaining and Storing Bitcoin: Other than mining Bitcoin, the only other way to obtain them is via transactions and exchanges. One can earn bitcoin by selling a product or service to someone willing to pay in BTC, or one can purchase them with traditional currency through a BTC exchange. BTC can be exchanged for cash or goods and services in a similar fashion. There are reportedly over 100 BTC exchanges, and BTC ATMs are gaining in popularity. BTC’s are stored in a so-called “wallet”. Wallets may reside on a mobile phone or a desktop computer. The decision to use one versus the other largely comes down to a trade-off between security and ease of use. Transacting with Bitcoin: Each wallet has a unique key which serves as a personal identifier. When one wishes to transact, the buyer and seller swap their personal keys and the transaction information is posted for miners to verify and post to the blockchain. The identity of the buyer and seller is never revealed. This is one reason that black market, money laundering and tax avoidance transactions are popular on BTC exchanges. While not 100% accurate, you can think of a BTC transaction process as similar to a debit card transaction, but instead of banks verifying, approving and transferring cash to fund the transaction, miners fill that role. Valuing Bitcoin: Valuing BTC is just like valuing any other currency. One can compare BTC to U.S. dollars or to any other currency. One can also compare the value of BTC to its purchasing power or what one may buy given a set amount of BTC. Currently, BTC is rising rapidly versus all major currencies thus its purchasing power is following suit. As marginal interest in BTC versus sovereign nation currencies increases, the rise in value could continue. In trying to provide a succinct summary of BTC, we left out many details which you may find pertinent and/or interesting. As blockchain technology represents an important innovation and will certainly find many other uses besides cryptocurrencies, we would encourage you to apply further rigor and read beyond the scope of this article. BTC – Currency or Investment Fad? Since BTC started trading in July of 2010, it has risen over 51,000 percent! This meteoric rise in the price of a bitcoin, as graphed below, has certainly attracted many traders and speculators to the cryptocurrency space. While price gains are certainly drawing short term players, others are buying it for its promise as an alternative currency. It is this aspect of BTC that we believe is most relevant. Data Courtesy: Bloomberg BTC is a pure fiat currency, meaning it is backed by nothing tangible other than the value users ascribe. Currencies, whether fiat or hard money (backed by something tangible of value) derive value from their utility and scarcity. As the Weimar Republic and many other nations throughout history have learned, economic disasters occur when governments ignore the value proposition and recklessly print money. The U.S. dollar, also a fiat currency, is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States as well as a small amount of gold. While some may not ascribe too much value to “faith and credit”, almost 250 years of economic progress, military might, and the most powerful tax base in the world strongly argue otherwise. The dollar is globally accepted for almost any kind of transaction, and, despite recent actions of the Federal Reserve, dollars remain relatively scarce. Put another way, even billionaire Bill Gates would stop to pick up a dollar bill laying on the ground. Visit a third world nation and notice how many vendors not only accept U.S. dollars but encourage their use over the domestic currency. The question investors, not short term speculators, are tasked with answering is, “Will enough people value BTC to make it a respected and often used currency?” In our opinion, the most crucial information needed to answer that question is understanding how governments will respond to the rise of BTC. Gaining a sense for what is at stake for existing currencies and the economies that employ those currencies offers keen insight into the future of BTC and its ability to become more than an afterthought in global trade. The preamble to the U.S. Constitution states the purpose of the Federal government is to: “form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity.” In other words the government’s role is to protect the freedoms and liberties of its citizens. If the government has no ability to fund itself and is unable to provide defense and law enforcement it cannot uphold the Constitution. More precisely - the sovereignty of any nation, regardless of its form of government, rests upon the strength and integrity of its currency. All transactions, and their participants, that occur with BTC are anonymous. Accordingly taxes cannot be efficiently assessed, black market transactions are made easier, and fraud can easily escape the eye of law enforcement. If BTC continues to gain in popularity there is little doubt in our opinion the government will seek control or at a minimum the personal data from the transactions. In fact the SEC has recently opined on the matter claiming that “tokens” such as BTC can be deemed securities and may need to be formally registered. This is just a first step but given the potential threat, we envision government will impose a way to remove the secrecy BTC offers, allowing taxation and legal supervision to occur. We strongly believe the government will not allow BTC to become a full-fledged currency, at least in its current form, but we think they are enamored with the technology. It is possible that a deeply regulated and controlled version of BTC or a new government cryptocurrency could at some point usurp the dollar as we know it today. Before summarizing this article we leave you with a few pros and cons of BTC: Pros BTC is unregulated, allowing users to avoid taxes or any other kind of governmental, banking, and law enforcement scrutiny. BTC is in limited supply which should help it to retain its value over time. We caveat that with the fact that there are many competitors, each with their own rules about creation. BTC creation is not subject to the whims of central bankers that appear constantly looking to devalue their respective currencies via inflation. Transacting in BTC is easy. As more sellers of goods and services accept BTC its flexibility improves. Typically storing BTC is less expensive than most other national currencies as well as precious metals. Additionally, transaction fees and other banking costs are largely avoided. Cons Bitcoin is unregulated. Regulations to enforce market structure and prevent fraud are not available. There are over 750 cryptocurrencies and the number is growing rapidly. Which one will emerge as the dominant currency beyond the first mover stage? Conversely, which ones will fail and leave holders with nothing? BTC security is not fool proof. Wallets have been hacked on both desktop computers and mobile phones. Due to the anonymous nature of the exchanges, remediation of such actions is difficult. Price volatility makes accepting BTC a risky proposition. Accordingly transaction fees are becoming popular by many merchants. The energy costs and computing power associated with mining BTC is massive and will increase as the complexity of the blockchain and the number of users grow. Seemingly these resources could be put to better use. Summary The U.S., E.U., Japan, China and Great Brittan have devalued their currencies significantly over the past ten years. The recent success of cryptocurrencies is a meaningful sign that central banker actions have not gone unnoticed by the users of traditional currencies. While we applaud the concept of a currency that is scarce and avoids the whims of bureaucrats, we do not own, nor do we have plans to own cryptocurrencies in the future. The current market is one of significant volatility and heavy speculation. Additionally, the bigger concern is that global governments have the means to make or break cryptocurrencies. Until these powers more fully reveal their intentions on BTC, the risks are too speculative to warrant involvement.
World’s Largest Hedge Fund Bridgewater Buys $68 Million of Gold ETF - World’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater buys $68 million of gold ETF in Q2- Investors poured $870 million into SPDR Gold in Q2- Billionaire Paulson keeps 4.36 million shares in SPDR Gold- “Risks are now rising and do not appear appropriately priced in” - warns Dalio on Linkedin- Investors should avoid ETFs and paper gold and own physical gold- Given negative interest rates, companies should consider allocating some of corporate deposits to physical gold as done by Munich Re From Bloomberg: Hedge-fund managers including billionaire John Paulson are being rewarded as investor worries over everything from uneven economic data to U.S.-North Korean tensions fuel a rally in bullion. At the end of June, Paulson & Co. owned 4.36 million shares of SPDR Gold Shares, a U.S. government filing showed Monday. That’s unchanged from the three months through March. Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, added the ETF to its portfolio in the quarter, with the purchase of 577,264 shares valued at $68.1 million, a regulatory filing showed Aug. 10. Templeton Global Advisors Ltd. boosted its stake in Barrick Gold Corp. Investors poured $870 million into SPDR Gold in the second quarter, taking the fund’s total assets to $34 billion as U.S. inflation continued to undershoot the Federal Reserve’s target, putting at risk policy makers’ projection for rising interest rates. While the prospect of monetary policy tightening remains, investors recently turned their focus on geopolitical strains as North Korea’s Kim Jong Un threatened the U.S. territory of Guam, boosting demand for bullion as a haven. “Prospective risks are now rising and do not appear appropriately priced in,” billionaire Ray Dalio, who manages Bridgewater, said in a LinkedIn post, as he recommended investors allocate 5 percent to 10 percent of their assets to gold. Dalio also flagged rising odds that the U.S. Congress may fail to raise the debt ceiling, “leading to a technical default, a temporary government shutdown, and increased loss of faith in the effectiveness of our political system.” Full article on Bloomberg here Related ContentWorld’s Largest Reinsurer Buying Gold To Counter Punishing Negative Rates “Do You Own Gold?” Ray Dalio at CFR: “Oh Yeah, I Do” Gold Is Undervalued – Leading Money Managers Gold ETFs or Physical Gold? Hidden Dangers In GLD News and Commentary Gold falls on easing North Korea tensions, strong U.S. data (Reuters.com) Gold prices inch up ahead of minutes from latest Fed meeting (Reuters.com) Asian Shares Mixed, Korea Advances as Calm Returns (Bloomberg.com) UK car lenders vulnerable after surge in risky loans - BoE (IrishTimes.com) ‘Deep’ Subprime Car Loans Hit Crisis-Era Milestone (Bloomberg.com) Bank of America Warns of an ‘Ominous’ Sign for Stocks (Bloomberg.com) Investors should be looking at gold (Barrons.com) UK debt tide is rising – how can you avoid drowning? (TheGuardian.com) Prepare for negative interest rates in the next recession - Rogoff (Telegraph.co.uk) US dollar's fall could become a self-fulfilling prophecy (SCMP.com) Own a few bitcoin but realise it is speculation (StansBerryChurcHouse.com) Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 16 Aug: USD 1,270.15, GBP 985.13 & EUR 1,082.29 per ounce15 Aug: USD 1,274.60, GBP 986.92 & EUR 1,084.05 per ounce14 Aug: USD 1,281.10, GBP 987.34 & EUR 1,085.48 per ounce11 Aug: USD 1,288.30, GBP 993.67 & EUR 1,096.47 per ounce10 Aug: USD 1,278.90, GBP 985.39 & EUR 1,091.67 per ounce09 Aug: USD 1,267.95, GBP 974.80 & EUR 1,079.79 per ounce08 Aug: USD 1,261.45, GBP 967.78 & EUR 1,068.20 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 16 Aug: USD 16.68, GBP 12.96 & EUR 14.25 per ounce15 Aug: USD 16.89, GBP 13.12 & EUR 14.38 per ounce14 Aug: USD 16.97, GBP 13.09 & EUR 14.39 per ounce11 Aug: USD 17.09, GBP 13.18 & EUR 14.53 per ounce10 Aug: USD 17.08, GBP 13.14 & EUR 14.57 per ounce09 Aug: USD 16.59, GBP 12.76 & EUR 14.14 per ounce08 Aug: USD 16.39, GBP 12.57 & EUR 13.87 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Diversify Into Gold Urges Dalio on Linkedin – “Militaristic Leaders Playing Chicken Risks Hellacious War”- Gold Has Yet Another Purpose – Help Fight Cancer- Gold Up 2%, Silver 5% In Week – Gundlach, Gartman and Dalio Positive On Gold- Great Disaster Looms as Technology Disrupts White Collar Workers- Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat- Silver Mining Production Plummets 27% At Top Four Silver Miners- Gold Consolidates On 2.5% Gain In July After Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline- Gold Coins and Bars See Demand Rise of 11% in H2, 2017- Greenspan Warns Stagflation Like 1970s “Not Good For Asset Prices”- What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi- Bitcoin, ICO Risk Versus Immutable Gold and Silver- This Is Why Shrinkflation Is Making You Poor- Gold A Good Store Of Value – Protect From $217 Trillion Global Debt Bubble Important Guides For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017: Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK) Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.
As Ukraine's crackdown on corruption continues, three lawmakers from Ukraine’s ruling party revealed this week that they own a combined $45 million in bitcoin, according to a report by RIA Novosti, a Russian foreign news service. Their holdings came to light during mandatory financial disclosures by members of the Ukrainian parliament, part of an IMF-approved strategy to tamp down corruption in Ukraine. The country's democratic institutions, which were never very robust to begin with, have been further destabilized by the civil war that's seen pro-Russian separatists seize control of two regions in eastern Ukraine. Lawmakers must now disclose their assets and wealth in an online database. Dmitry Golubov possesses the most bitcoin, with 8,752 BTC, an amount worth roughly $36 million at current prices, according to CoinDesk. Alexander Urbansky possesses 2,494 BTC, or $10.3 million, while Dmitry Belotserkovets owns 398 BTC, or $1.6 million. Ukraine’s central bank plans to develop a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies after discussing the legal implications of the virtual tokens at a meeting next month. “The disclosures come as Ukraine inches toward regulating the cryptocurrency. As reported previously, the National Bank of Ukraine – the country's central bank – revealed last week that the legal implications of cryptocurrencies will be discussed at the next meeting of the Financial Stability Board of Ukraine. That hearing, scheduled for the end of August, will bring together the nation's financial authorities. It's unclear at this time exactly what steps the government will ultimately take. Local sources reported last week that a large cache of bitcoin mining machines were confiscated after authorities discovered them at a state-owned facility.” Ukrainians have been exposed to the vast differences between the fortunes amassed by the country’s politicians and the more modest holdings of those they represent since an anti-corruption reform requiring senior Ukrainian officials to declare their wealth online was implemented late last year. Some lawmakers have declared millions of dollars in cash. Others said they owned fleets of luxury cars, expensive Swiss watches, diamond jewelry and large tracts of land. These revelations have no doubt undermined public confidence in the country’s government, particularly the ruling party led by President Petro Poroshenko, whose family amassed a fortune in the confectionary business. By comparison, the average salary in Ukraine is just over $200 per month. Poroshenko - a prominent fixture of the Panama Papers - retains control of a top TV channel and has failed to follow through on his promise to sell off his Roshen chocolate empire due to a lack of foreign interest and a dearth of rich-enough investors in Ukraine itself. While the online declaration system has been intended to represent a show of good faith that officials are willing to open their finances up to public scrutiny, to be held accountable, and to move away from a culture that tacitly allowed bureaucrats to amass wealth through cronyism and graft, the public reaction has been one of shocked dismay at the extravagant lifestyles conjured up by many of the disclosures. "We did not expect that this would be such a widespread phenomenon among state officials. I can't imagine there is a European politician who invests money in a wine collection where one bottle costs over $10,000," said Vitaliy Shabunin, the head of the non-governmental Anti-Corruption Action Center. Ukraine's economy is on track to shrink by about 12 percent this year and only return to marginal growth should the eastern campaign end in 2016. Unrest in the country began back in 2014 when former President Viktor Yanukovich, who was perceived to be too close with Russian President Vladimir Putin, was forced to abdicate.
Tepper tells us "we're nowhere near bubble levels in the stock market" - so buy... what's to worry about? Trannies were top today, Small Caps slammed as Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq trod water... before closing weak... (Boeing and Apple saved The Dow, adding 30 points between them today as HD removed 30) VIX was lower once again on all the major indices...Small Cap vol remains notably elevated relative to the rest... By the close, gold and bonds were unchanged from the retail sales print but Nasdaq was lower... Retailer stocks crashed again today (despite surging retail sales?) Leaving XRT hovering at critical support... With record low correlation to the market... AAPL hit a new record high today as the rotation from FANG stocks continues... Credit ain't buying the equity bounce... December rate hike odds retraced the entire CPI-miss-drop... Treasury yields roller-coastered today... but the trend continues as we suspect rate-locks and marginal rotation for the AMZN issue were a big driver... 30Y yields extended yesterday's rise overnight as the market prepared for a yuuge AMZN debt issue, spiked higher on Retail Sales, but immediately reversing having tagged 2.87% (last week's highs) before tumbling... but ending up 3bps... Still despite US bonds pushing higher in yields, Spain hit a new record low (2Y at -33.3bps) and the world's volume of negative-yielding debt soared back to its highest since Oct 2016... The Dollar Index rose for the second day in a row - this is the biggest 2-day jump in over 3 months... (NOTE that like TSYs, USD spiked on the retail sales dats then immediately tumbled back)... The question is - what happens next? EURUSD certainly looks a little rich here... Bitcoin saw some serious vol intraday - dropping $650 from its record $4400 highs, it quickly ramped back up to $4150 by the close... Gold sank once again today...but rebounded off the retail sales dump... And notably GDX short interest surged to its hghest since Feb 2016... Having tagged $50 late last week, WTI traded down to $47 today before bouncing a little ahead of tonight's API inventory data... And finally, the 1987 analog is stil holding... Maybe this is the catalyst?
Authored by Mark Spitznagel via The Mises Institute, Every further new high in the price of Bitcoin brings ever more claims that it is destined to become the preeminent safe haven investment of the modern age — the new gold. But there’s no getting around the fact that Bitcoin is essentially a speculative investment in a new technology, specifically the blockchain. Think of the blockchain, very basically, as layers of independent electronic security that encapsulate a cryptocurrency and keep it frozen in time and space — like layers of amber around a fly. This is what makes a cryptocurrency “crypto.” That’s not to say that the price of Bitcoin cannot make further (and further…) new highs. After all, that is what speculative bubbles do (until they don’t). Bitcoin and each new initial coin offering (ICO) should be thought of as software infrastructure innovation tools, not competing currencies. It’s the amber that determines their value, not the flies. Cryptocurrencies are a very significant value-added technological innovation that calls directly into question the government monopoly over money. This insurrection against government-manipulated fiat money will only grow more pronounced as cryptocurrencies catch on as transactional fiduciary media; at that point, who will need government money? The blockchain, though still in its infancy, is a really big deal. While governments can’t control cryptocurrencies directly, why shouldn’t we expect cryptocurrencies to face the same fate as what started happening to numbered Swiss bank accounts (whose secrecy remain legally enforced by Swiss law)? All local governments had to do was make it illegal to hide, and thus force law-abiding citizens to become criminals if they fail to disclose such accounts. We should expect similar anti-money laundering hygiene and taxation among the cryptocurrencies. The more electronic security layers inherent in a cryptocurrency’s perceived value, the more vulnerable its price is to such an eventual decree. Bitcoins should be regarded as assets, or really equities, not as currencies. They are each little business plans — each perceived to create future value. They are not stores-of-value, but rather volatile expectations on the future success of these business plans. But most ICOs probably don’t have viable business plans; they are truly castles in the sky, relying only on momentum effects among the growing herd of crypto-investors. (The Securities and Exchange Commission is correct in looking at them as equities.) Thus, we should expect their current value to be derived by the same razor-thin equity risk premiums and bubbly growth expectations that we see throughout markets today. And we should expect that value to suffer the same fate as occurs at the end of every speculative bubble. If you wanted to create your own private country with your own currency, no matter how safe you were from outside invaders, you’d be wise to start with some pre-existing store-of-value, such as a foreign currency, gold, or land. Otherwise, why would anyone trade for your new currency? Arbitrarily assigning a store-of-value component to a cryptocurrency, no matter how secure it is, is trying to do the same thing (except much easier than starting a new country). And somehow it’s been working. Moreover, as competing cryptocurrencies are created, whether for specific applications (such as automating contracts, for instance), these ICOs seem to have the effect of driving up all cryptocurrencies. Clearly, there is the potential for additional cryptocurrencies to bolster the transactional value of each other—perhaps even adding to the fungibility of all cryptocurrencies. But as various cryptocurrencies start competing with each other, they will not be additive in value. The technology, like new innovations, can, in fact, create some value from thin air. But not so any underlying store-of-value component in the cryptocurrencies. As a new cryptocurrency is assigned units of a store-of-value, those units must, by necessity, leave other stores-of-value, whether gold or another cryptocurrency. New depositories of value must siphon off the existing depositories of value. On a global scale, it is very much a zero sum game. Or, as we might say, we can improve the layers of amber, but we can’t create more flies. This competition, both in the technology and the underlying store-of-value, must, by definition, constrain each specific cryptocurrency’s price appreciation. Put simply, cryptocurrencies have an enormous scarcity problem. The constraints on any one cryptocurrency’s supply are an enormous improvement over the lack of any constraint whatsoever on governments when it comes to printing currencies. However, unlike physical assets such as gold and silver that have unique physical attributes endowing them with monetary importance for millennia, the problem is that there is no barrier to entry for cryptocurrencies; as each new competing cryptocurrency finds success, it dilutes or inflates the universe of the others. The store-of-value component of cryptocurrencies — which is, at a bare-minimum, a fundamental requirement for safe haven status — is a minuscule part of its value and appreciation. After all, stores of value are just that: stable and reliable holding places of value. They do not create new value, but are finite in supply and are merely intended to hold value that has already been created through savings and productive investment. To miss this point is to perpetuate the very same fallacy that global central banks blindly follow today. You simply cannot create money, or capital, from thin air (whether it be credit or a new cool cryptocurrency). Rather, it represents resources that have been created and saved for future consumption. There is simply no way around this fundamental truth. Viewing cryptocurrencies as having safe haven status opens investors to layering more risk on their portfolios. Holding Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies likely constitutes a bigger bet on the same central bank-driven bubble that some hope to protect themselves against. The great irony is that both the libertarian supporters of cryptocurrencies and the interventionist supporters of central bank-manipulated fiat money both fall for this very same fallacy. Cryptocurrencies are a very important development, and an enormous step in the direction toward the decentralization of monetary power. This has enormously positive potential, and I am a big cheerleader for their success. But caveat emptor - thinking that we are magically creating new stores-of-value and thus a new safe haven is a profound mistake.
Cryptocurrencies are crashing this morning... After a 70% surge following the fork to a new record high at $4400, Bitcoin is getting battered this morning... Dow $500 from overnight highs... As a reminder, Goldman Sachs' chief technician Sheba Jafari increased her forecast for Bitcoin to over $4800... but warned that the virtual currency could then drop to $2221... Now that the market is getting closer to reaching this level, it’s going to be important to take note of any/all signs of trend exhaustion. There is of note a 2.618 extension which runs as far as $4,827. Once a full 5-wave sequence is in place, the market should in theory enter a corrective phase. This can last at least one third of the time it took to complete the preceding advance and retrace at least 38.2% of the entire move. From current levels, that would measure out to ~2,221.
Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, I don’t regularly watch CNBC, but last week while on vacation, I turned on the Sirius XM radio and was instantly assaulted with Jim Cramer’s shrieking. I was about to turn the channel when he shouted how the “billionaire bears” might finally be catching a break with the stock market downdraft. I have to give Cramer credit, that’s a good line to describe the growing cohort of negative investment legends. Wondering if Jim came up with it on his own, I googled it. Aware of the burgeoning $1.99 Kindle romance section where some serious authors have created pseudo names to write under because the money is too good to pass up, I have never actually been exposed to these books. Until now… Did Cramer come up with his description after reading Ursala Maya’s The Billionaire Bears Club? I had planned to quote the summary in this post, but even the summary’s innuendo might be pushing it. Instead I will share with you the first review: I am never one to be disparaging, but I was left with no other choice here. I have to say that this was one of the worst books I’ve ever read. It went beyond gratuitous to a level that I didn’t think possible. The writing itself was deplorable alone, but the plot, or lack thereof, was far worse. Ugh, it was just bad bad bad! This is so far from erotic romance. Hell, it had none at all. It also had nothing to do with shifters, and more about an intern being [email protected] to advance her supposed career. Nothing is sexy about this book, so please do not waste your time on trash like this. Unfortunately, lately, it’s more than terribly written Billionaire Bears Club books that are disappointing. Whether it is Gross, Icahn, Gundlach, Jones or Marks, there is no shortage of billionaires warning about the impending stock market crash. Heck, one particularly articulate and well liked hedge fund guru has taken to labeling all his recent tweets with #RISKHAPPENSFAST, and my personal favourite, #DARKNESSFALLS. Darkness falls? Seriously? When he started tweeting his dire omen last week, the S&P 500 was down 65 handles from an all time high. That decline represented a little more than 2.5%. I hate to point out the obvious, but a 2.5% dip over the course of a week is nothing more than noise. In fact, we could decline 10% and the bull market would be still very much intact. Now I can hear the howls of protest already. Only fools buy stocks up here without thinking about the risks. These gurus are doing everyone a favour by highlighting the danger. As Howard Marks says, “no investment is good enough that you can’t screw it up by paying too much.” Yeah, I hear you Howard. The trouble is that stocks have been expensive for quite some time. This Billionaire Bears Club cadre has been issuing these warnings for the past couple of years. Although I have to give Gundlach credit for the superb timing on his recent S&P 500 put purchase, I worry when I hear traders tempt the Market Gods with tauntings such as Gundlach’s recent comment that he will be disappointed if he doesn’t make 400% on his position. Or how about Dennis Gartman’s “staking his reputation that the highs for the stock market are in.” Why he would say such a thing is beyond me. Especially right into the hole. I am much too scared about the financial environment to ever make any prediction with this sort of certainty. Now, don’t mistake my view. I am not defending the bull position. I understand the potential holes in their argument (mainly valuation). But I do want to take a moment to point out that all these bears are using an outdated playbook for their forecasts of threatening doom. For example, they see the economy slowing down, and they immediately conclude that it is finally time to short stocks. Yet what will be the outcome of a slowing economy? Why, more Central Banking easing of course! So ironically, as the economy rolls over (however slight), Central Banks quickly take their foot off the brake, and financial assets magically levitate. I am still getting caught up from my vacation, so this post will be brief. But I wanted to take a moment to remind everyone that before the Great Financial Crisis, the collective balance sheet for the big 3 Central Banks (Fed, ECB & BoJ) was approximately $4 trillion. Today it is $14 trillion. And I haven’t even included the BoE, SNB and PBoC’s of this world. There has been an absurd amount of monetary stimulus over the past decade. Central Bankers have broken taboos (like negative interest rates) that previously seemed sacrosanct. No one, and I repeat, no one understands how all of this printing will eventually affect the economy and markets. I have made a fool of myself being negative on bitcoin, but really given the stupidity of what bitcoin is being priced against (other fiat currencies), I probably should have been way more respectful of the possibility of a speculative fervour in an alternative store of value. I have done an abysmal job identifying what will explode higher in price, but my message has been consistent - Central Bank balance sheet expansion has the potential to create some unprecedented asset price moves. The Billionaire Bears Club might be a terrible book, but the real BB’s have also led you astray with their investment advice. Too many of them believe that the next crisis will look exactly like the last. I will leave you with my prediction. The next crisis won’t start in the equity market, or even the high yield bond market. The next crisis will occur when Central Banks lose control of sovereign bond markets. I know that is exactly the opposite advice that the BBC boys are giving you, but I don’t mind being on the other side of their trade. Economic weakness will just mean more printing, it is economic strength that should worry the equity bulls.
Buy Gold Urges Dalio on Linkedin - "Militaristic Leaders Playing Chicken Risks Hellacious War" - Don't let "traditional biases" stop you from diversifying into gold - Dalio on Linkedin- “Risks are now rising and do not appear appropriately priced in” warns founder of world's largest hedge fund- Geo-political risk from North Korea & "risk of hellacious war"- Risk that U.S. debt ceiling not raised; technical US default- Safe haven gold likely to benefit by more than dollar, treasuries- Investors should allocate at least 5% to 10% of assets to gold- "If you don’t have 5-10% of your assets in gold as a hedge, we’d suggest that you relook at this"- "If you do have an excellent analysis of why you shouldn’t have such an allocation to gold, we’d appreciate you sharing it with us ..." Image courtesy of Quotefancy by Ray Dalio via Linkedin There are returns, and there are risks. We think of them individually, and then we combine them into a portfolio. We think of returns and opportunities as coming from those things we’d bet on, and we think of risks as the adverse market consequences of us being wrong due to our being out of balance. We start with our balanced beta portfolio—i.e., that portfolio that would most certainly fund our intended uses of the money. Everyone should have their own based on their own projected uses of money, though more generally, it’s our All Weather portfolio. We then create a balanced portfolio of opportunity/alpha bets based on what we think is likely to happen. We then combine them. We bet on the events/outcomes that we think we have an edge in understanding. For events/outcomes where we don’t think we have a particular edge—e.g., political events—we aim to construct our portfolio to be relatively neutral or balanced to those risks. Risk and Volatility As a rule, periods of lower risk/volatility tend to lead to periods of greater risk/volatility. That is reflected in our aggregate market volatility gauge (see below), and markets are pricing in volatility to remain low next year too. As a related rule, people adapt to the circumstances they have experienced and are then surprised when the future is different than the past. In other words, most people are inclined to assume that the circumstances they have recently encountered will persist, which leads them to change what they are doing to be consistent with that recently experienced environment. For example, low-volatility periods in which credit is readily available tend to lead people to assume that it’s safe to borrow more, which leads them to lever up their positions, which contributes to greater volatility and hurts them when things change. That appears to be the case now—i.e., prospective risks are now rising and do not appear appropriately priced in because of a) a backward looking at risk and b) corporate leveraging up has been high because interest rates are low relative to many companies’ projected ROEs and because past risks have been low. The emerging risks appear more political than economic, which makes them especially challenging to price in. Most immediately, during the calm of the August vacation season, we are seeing 1) two confrontational, nationalistic, and militaristic leaders playing chicken with each other, while the world is watching to see which one will be caught bluffing, or if there will be a hellacious war, and 2) the odds of Congress failing to raise the debt ceiling (leading to a technical default, a temporary government shutdown, and increased loss of faith in the effectiveness of our political system) rising. It’s hard to bet on such things, one way or another, so the best that one can do is be neutral to such possibilities. When it comes to assessing political matters (especially global geopolitics like the North Korea matter), we are very humble. We know that we don’t have a unique insight that we’d choose to bet on. Most importantly, we aim to stay liquid, stay diversified, and not be overly exposed to any particular economic outcomes. We like to hedge our bets, though we are never completely hedged. We can also say that if the above things go badly, it would seem that gold (more than other safe haven assets like the dollar, yen, and treasuries) would benefit, so if you don’t have 5-10% of your assets in gold as a hedge, we’d suggest that you relook at this. Don’t let traditional biases, rather than an excellent analysis, stand in the way of you doing this (and if you do have an excellent analysis of why you shouldn’t have such an allocation to gold, we’d appreciate you sharing it with us). Full article by Dalio on Linkedin hereFollow GoldCore on Linkedin here News and Commentary Gold inches lower as N.Korea tensions ease (Reuters.com) Asian markets bounce back as North Korean threat recedes (MarketWatch.com) Paulson And Other Hedge Funds Rewarded as Angst Fuels Gold (Bloomberg.com) Bitcoin Surges Past $4,000 on Speed Breakthrough (Bloomberg.com) Stocks Surge, Havens Retreat as Korea Fears Wane: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com) Source: Bloomberg.com S&P 500’s Biggest Pension Plans Face $382 Billion Funding Gap (Bloomberg.com) HONG KONG IS HAVING ANOTHER GO AT GOLD TRADING – HERE’S WHY IT WILL SUCCEED THIS TIME (SCMP.com) Collecting metal: the inner and outer worlds of jewelry, coins, bullion bits, and odd shiny things (UneNumerated) Black Sky Hazards: Feds To Wargame "Widespread Power Outages" And "Cascading Infrastructure Failures" (ZeroHedge.com) This Gold Coin Built the Smithsonian (SmithSonIanMag.com) Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 15 Aug: USD 1,274.60, GBP 986.92 & EUR 1,084.05 per ounce14 Aug: USD 1,281.10, GBP 987.34 & EUR 1,085.48 per ounce11 Aug: USD 1,288.30, GBP 993.67 & EUR 1,096.47 per ounce10 Aug: USD 1,278.90, GBP 985.39 & EUR 1,091.67 per ounce09 Aug: USD 1,267.95, GBP 974.80 & EUR 1,079.79 per ounce08 Aug: USD 1,261.45, GBP 967.78 & EUR 1,068.20 per ounce07 Aug: USD 1,257.55, GBP 963.41 & EUR 1,065.90 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 15 Aug: USD 16.89, GBP 13.12 & EUR 14.38 per ounce14 Aug: USD 16.97, GBP 13.09 & EUR 14.39 per ounce11 Aug: USD 17.09, GBP 13.18 & EUR 14.53 per ounce10 Aug: USD 17.08, GBP 13.14 & EUR 14.57 per ounce09 Aug: USD 16.59, GBP 12.76 & EUR 14.14 per ounce08 Aug: USD 16.39, GBP 12.57 & EUR 13.87 per ounce07 Aug: USD 16.13, GBP 12.35 & EUR 13.67 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Gold Has Yet Another Purpose – Help Fight Cancer- Gold Up 2%, Silver 5% In Week – Gundlach, Gartman and Dalio Positive On Gold- Great Disaster Looms as Technology Disrupts White Collar Workers- Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat- Silver Mining Production Plummets 27% At Top Four Silver Miners- Gold Consolidates On 2.5% Gain In July After Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline- Gold Coins and Bars See Demand Rise of 11% in H2, 2017- Greenspan Warns Stagflation Like 1970s “Not Good For Asset Prices”- What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi- Bitcoin, ICO Risk Versus Immutable Gold and Silver- This Is Why Shrinkflation Is Making You Poor- Gold A Good Store Of Value – Protect From $217 Trillion Global Debt Bubble- Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis Important Guides For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017: Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK) Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.
Bitcoin на выходных преодолел уровень 4 тыс. долларов, поднявшись за сутки на 10,5%. О покупке этой валюты-актива задумывается все больше людей, в том числе, весьма далеких от рынка и биржи
How does the complexity of the system protect against fraud?
- Gold has yet another purpose and may help fight cancer- Gold increases effectiveness of drugs used to treat cancer cells by acting as catalyst - research shows- Use of gold in technology and health growing each year- Tech use to increase- number of patent applications in 2017 grew- Industrial applications such as solar and bio-metrics reduce availability of above ground supply and gold for investment- Another string to the bow of gold and potential impact on sentiment towards gold and on the gold price- 'Could gold finally have a purpose?' bizarre headline ignores gold's 2,500 plus year history as a means of exchange, money and a store of value Source: Pinterest Editor: Mark O'Byrne Real, scientific evidence has been popping up for a while now which suggests the precious metal can make some major contributions to the world of science and medicine. As a fan of Goldschläger I have long been convinced of the health benefits of gold and just last week a research team at Edinburgh University announced results that showed gold nanoparticles could increase the effectiveness of drugs used to treat lung cancer cells. This latest announcement from the field of science is one of many which have been cropping up outside of the investment space, from medicine to solar panels to space technology, gold is making significant strides when it comes to its place outside of the financial world. In the last quarter, gold used in technology rose 2% y-o-y, according to the World Gold Council. This was mainly thanks to a growth in demand for bonding wire, Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs) and LEDs. It is not surprising that gold has a place beyond money. Due to it high conductivity, chemical stability and compatibility with other elements it is an ideal candidate in many applications. As technology and research improves the number of use cases for gold is growing each year. This is beneficial for those who are investing in physical gold bullion. Demand for gold’s physical properties in science takes it out of circulation and increases the demand for physical gold thereby reducing the availability for investment purposes. Below, we take a quick look at some of the use cases of gold and explain why this is good news for the gold market. Gold compounds Scientific research into the health benefits of gold has been going on for some time. But, as we have seen with other alternative treatments such as colloidal silver, there have been occasional negative results and this has slowed research in this area. Frequently uses for gold in medicine are pushed to the wayside due to a lack of technology that can maximise the benefits of the metal. This means side effects have been serious and enough to outweigh the benefits for many users. For example, in 1935 studies into the benefits of ‘gold salts’ were carried out. The term refers to gold compounds used in medicine, a practice known as aurotherapy. One of the main uses for gold compounds in health was as an anti-inflammatory. However it was rarely encouraged by the medical mainstream due to unwanted side effects such as skin discolouration, chrysiasas and kidney issues. But, as scientific methods improve research is able to find ways to harness the benefits of the precious metal without such dramatic side effects, as we have seen with this latest news. This is mainly thanks to the growing role of tech in health, as scientists work to see how we can use technology to improve diagnoses and treatment, rather than just look to chemicals and how they might cure us. A (perhaps) more impressive use for gold in health was revealed last year, in Israel when researchers from the Israel Institute of Technology developed sensors made from gold nanoparticles which can be used in a breath test in order to identify different diseases. Whilst the test is not yet accurate enough for mainstream use, the Institute’s sensors could identify the specific disease 86% of the time after allowing for factors such as age and gender. Health remains a small field for gold as scientists work to perfect developments, but it can look to the area of technology for inspiration in terms of its potential. Gold’s in vogue - energy and security One of the major criticisms of gold, by the environmental lobby is the energy intensive process involved in mining for gold. Whilst mining companies work to reduce their impact on the environment, the yellow metal is being used in energy harnessing methods through solar panels and so is almost working on the flip side of this issue. In 2011 a team of French and Dutch scientists found that a discontinuous film of gold nanodots just 0.5nm thick, across a solar panel could improve the efficiency of organic photovoltaic cells (already a low cost option in alternative energy). This layer needed to just cover 15% of the cells in order to see an improvement in performance. Of course, solar panels and alternative energy sources are increasingly important, especially as governments fight to work out a solution to the energy crisis. Another area growing rapidly (much to many readers’ chagrins) is the area of biometric security. That trendy smartphone you have that lets you access your information using your fingerprint, is most likely using gold bonding wire. The wire is a key component in this area which has recently hit the mainstream. In 2016 Samsung and Huawe began to use biometric security in their products. As a result, sensor makers in mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea were operating at full capacity leading them to increase both prices and lead time to meet demand. ‘Could gold have yet another purpose?…’ One of the headlines about this news that grabbed our attention was courtesy of CNBC, it read ‘Could gold finally have a purpose? New research says it could help in the fight against cancer.’ Might we suggest that the headline needs rewriting? Perhaps to read, ‘Could gold have yet another purpose?…’ As we said at the beginning, this latest announcement from the field of science is one of many which have been cropping up from medicine to solar panels to space technology, gold is making huge strides when it comes to its place outside of the financial world. Gold save all ills? Financial disaster and now cancer Gold retains an important place and a role in the financial and monetary world. It has been money for over 2,500 years and it continues to be. Not only for those in India and China, but also central banks and investors who see the purpose of gold as one of financial protection and long-term benefits. The growing use of gold in industrial applications suggests that these new uses for gold have the potential to increase demand, reduce supply and increase the attractiveness of this ever-useful metal. In turn, this extra demand leads to more broad based demand and could lead to higher prices. It is also worth asking if the industrial gold element of the market will be enough to cause physical gold demand to have more influence on the price of gold. Currently it is primarily driven by the paper and electronic market. There is another way to look at this as well, investing in anything to do with tech is very fashionable right now, but it can also be as risky - see the FANG (Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google) stocks as an example. So, when investing in physical, allocated gold you are not only investing in sound money but also a technological asset, which has a lot more real world uses backing it than a trendy online platform. In short, gold is coming back in fashion and more importantly is becoming more useful by the day. News and Commentary Gold Seen Jumping To $1400 On World Tension - Russian Investment Bank (Bloomberg) PRECIOUS-Gold slips from over 2-month high as dollar inches up vs yen (Reuters.com) Stocks Bounce and Havens Drop as Korea Fears Abate: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg) Trump threatens 'military option' in Venezuela as crisis escalates (The Guardian) Police shut down scam 'cryptocurrency boiler room' in the City (Telegraph) Source: Bloomberg.com Fed Has 6,200 Tons of Gold in a Manhattan Basement—Or Does It? (WSJ) China Will Continue to be Very Supportive of Commodities (Bloomberg) India’s gold imports to rebound in 2017 on restocking, good monsoon (Reuters) What’s your nuclear meltdown plan? (Stansberry Churchouse) This Chart Might Make You Rethink the Adage “Stocks Always Come Back” (24H Gold) Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 14 Aug: USD 1,281.10, GBP 987.34 & EUR 1,085.48 per ounce11 Aug: USD 1,288.30, GBP 993.67 & EUR 1,096.47 per ounce10 Aug: USD 1,278.90, GBP 985.39 & EUR 1,091.67 per ounce09 Aug: USD 1,267.95, GBP 974.80 & EUR 1,079.79 per ounce08 Aug: USD 1,261.45, GBP 967.78 & EUR 1,068.20 per ounce07 Aug: USD 1,257.55, GBP 963.41 & EUR 1,065.90 per ounce04 Aug: USD 1,269.30, GBP 964.92 & EUR 1,068.37 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 14 Aug: USD 16.97, GBP 13.09 & EUR 14.39 per ounce11 Aug: USD 17.09, GBP 13.18 & EUR 14.53 per ounce10 Aug: USD 17.08, GBP 13.14 & EUR 14.57 per ounce09 Aug: USD 16.59, GBP 12.76 & EUR 14.14 per ounce08 Aug: USD 16.39, GBP 12.57 & EUR 13.87 per ounce07 Aug: USD 16.13, GBP 12.35 & EUR 13.67 per ounce04 Aug: USD 16.70, GBP 12.71 & EUR 14.07 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Gold Up 2%, Silver 5% In Week – Gundlach, Gartman and Dalio Positive On Gold- Great Disaster Looms as Technology Disrupts White Collar Workers- Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat- Silver Mining Production Plummets 27% At Top Four Silver Miners- Gold Consolidates On 2.5% Gain In July After Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline- Gold Coins and Bars See Demand Rise of 11% in H2, 2017- Greenspan Warns Stagflation Like 1970s “Not Good For Asset Prices”- What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi- Bitcoin, ICO Risk Versus Immutable Gold and Silver- This Is Why Shrinkflation Is Making You Poor- Gold A Good Store Of Value – Protect From $217 Trillion Global Debt Bubble- Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis- Gold Seasonal Sweet Spot – August and September – Coming Important Guides For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017: Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK) Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.
Standpoint researcher Ronnie Moas raised his price target for bitcoin from $5,000 to $7,500, according to CNBC. Moas raised his price target after bitcoin reached the new all-time high this weekend. Moas his belief that hedge funds and more traditional investors are just starting to invest in bitcoin. Many expect that the CFTC’s decision to authorize the creation of the first clearinghouse for bitcoin options and swaps will hasten adoption by hedge funds and other more sophisticated traders. "What's happening is the floodgates are opening," Moas, founder of Standpoint Research, said in a phone interview with CNBC on Monday. "I believe there are hedge funds and very deep-pocketed individuals going into this now, really hundreds of millions of dollars." The longtime stock analyst first explained his bullish case in a research report published last month. Moas also believes that central banks will soon discover bitcoin’s usefulness as a reserve asset. As institutional investor interest in bitcoin grows, Moas expects digital currencies to become part of "strategic reserves" and "asset allocation models in the near future." He also said people in foreign countries will likely want to buy digital currencies as a more stable alternative to their national currencies. "You can't look at this as a normal situation," he said. "We're in an industry that will probably go from $140 billion to $2 trillion and the bitcoin price will probably move with that." Amazingly, Moas claims 100% of his investments are in digital currencies, with the majority in bitcoin and Ethereum, according to CNBC. Moas call comes on the heels of Goldman Sachs' chief technician Sheba Jafari increased her forecast for Bitcoin to over $4800... Now that the market is getting closer to reaching this level, it’s going to be important to take note of any/all signs of trend exhaustion. There is of note a 2.618 extension which runs as far as $4,827. Once a full 5-wave sequence is in place, the market should in theory enter a corrective phase. This can last at least one third of the time it took to complete the preceding advance and retrace at least 38.2% of the entire move. From current levels, that would measure out to ~2,221. Finally, we note Moas' conclusion that, if anything, his estimates are conservative. "Any way that I look at these numbers, my forecasts are looking conservative. It looks to me as though we are at the same point in the adoption curve as we were in 1995 when we went from one million internet users to ten million. The following year the Netscape browser came online and we went from 10 million users to hundreds of millions of users overnight. I expect that within a couple of years we will have between 50 and 100 million cryptocurrency users -- up from approximately ~10 million today. We only have 0.15% market penetration right now -- if that goes to 2% or 3% we will get to the $50,000 price target that I set at the beginning of July." Moas maintains his view that the digital currency could reach $50,000 by 2027.
Thanks to this weekend's dramatic surge to new record highs in Bitcoin ($4,251), the market cap of the largest cryptocurrency has now surpassed that of PayPal. Bitcoin total market cap topped $70 billion for the first time... Surpassing that of PayPal... in what Colu’s Udi Wertheimer called the "real Flippening." As CoinTelegraph reports, the symbolic reversal of values would continue Bitcoin’s further unprecedented growth in August following the lock-in of SegWit. Sunday saw an all-time high set again of around $4251, which attracted continued attention from mainstream media sources. Not just technological advances, but the bullish sentiment on Bitcoin’s business side could be fuelling a positive feedback loop of demand, Bloomberg adds. Bitcoin passing $4 bln is currently the publication’s most popular story. “People are starting to price in the consumer demand from Coinbase’s $100 mln fund-raising round,” Bloomberg quotes Justin Short, founder of the NOUS trading platform. “That’s a lot of advertising budget. Every $1 mln of marketing brings new demand, which increases the price as the supply is limited by design.” Coinbase had announced the closure of the $100 mln Series D round late last week, and had previously reaffirmed its long-term plans for huge capacity increases when it said it aims to raise a total of $1 bln going forward.
Last week, we said: It is commonly accepted to say the dollar is “printed”, but we can see from this line of thinking it is really borrowed. There is a real borrower on the other side of the transaction, and that borrower has powerful motivations to keep paying to service the debt. Bitcoin has no backing. Bitcoin is created out of thin air, the way people say of the dollar. The quantity of bitcoins created may be strictly limited by Satoshi’s design. We referred to the dollar as being borrowed into existence, to make our point that the dollar’s value is pretty firm, due to the struggles of the debtors. By contrast, bitcoin is created ex nihilo (yes, yes, at a limited rate and subject to an ultimate cap on its quantity). A reader took exception to the idea, and asserted that bitcoin is borrowed and lent all the time. We would like to address this, though first noting that this reader failed to address our point. A bitcoin is not, itself, a debt. It is not borrowed into existence. Now we will consider the reader’s point whether there is any real borrowing in bitcoin at all. The problem with borrowing a currency which its proponents tell us will go up another 30 times (and which has gone up 6.6 times in the past year) is that your payment is going up. Would you buy a house with a monthly payment of $1,000 a month, knowing this payment would go up to $6,000 by the end of the year and to $180,000 in a few more years? That reader dismisses such concern by noting that all transactions have risks. But this is not an ordinary risk. This is the risk of shorting a once-in-a-generation technology boom. Anyone who borrowed bitcoin a year ago at $585 would be bankrupt today at $3850. The last time we had such a craze was the dot com boom of the late 1990’s. Few would have shorted the NASDAQ. Perhaps nimble and aggressive traders, but certainly not ordinary businesses who were just trying to finance building a new retail store or buying a machine. We say “shorting”, because that is the simplest and clearest way to understand borrowing in a foreign currency. If you borrow bitcoin (or Argentinian pesos) then you owe the return of that same quantity of bitcoin (or pesos) plus interest. If you borrow to finance a dollar expense in a dollar-generating business, then you have in fact established a short position in bitcoin. You are betting it will go down, or at least not go up. When it has gone up 660% so far and promises to go up another 3,000%, you suffer huge capital losses. Any dollar-generating business should borrow in dollars. That way its short position is in the same currency as its long position. Its short position is its debt, and its long position is its revenue stream. When the currencies of liability and asset match, then the business has no net currency exposure. Its risk is purely entrepreneurial—will customers want its products at a price it can profitably sell them? Thus we say that, in theory no one (except a bitcoin miner) should borrow in bitcoin. And in practice anyone who borrowed a year ago is now certainly bankrupt. Only a bitcoin miner has a primary bitcoin income. We say primary to distinguish from something that is common today. Many businesses, from Overstock to Expedia, accept bitcoin in transactions, but this is something else entirely. They are businesses with dollar expenses, and set their prices in dollars. They just calculate a bitcoin amount, based on the dollar total in the shopping cart divided by the current price of bitcoin. When the customer pays, the bitcoin is immediately sold into the market, and the merchant gets the precise dollar amount that it wanted. Typically, a third party earns a small fee on the transaction. The customer might swear that he paid in bitcoin. But that’s not accurate. What really happened is four-party transaction: Customer has bitcoin, wants Merchant’s goods New Bitcoin Speculator has dollars, wants bitcoins Merchant has goods, wants dollars Bitcoin payment processor enables parties #1 through #3 to transact by selling Customer’s bitcoins to New Bitcoin Speculator for dollars to pay to Merchant The merchant who accepts bitcoin does not receive the bitcoin. The merchant receives the dollars. A bitcoin buyer out there in the world receives the bitcoin. It is no different than if a money changer loitered near a merchant stall in a market bazaar in the ancient world. A foreigner wants to buy spices, but has the wrong kind of coins. The money changer figures out the exchange rate, takes the foreigner’s coins and pays the merchant in domestic coins. Only, today on the Internet, this is done instantaneously and without the awareness of the customer. We can think of only one kind of business with primary revenues in bitcoin. A miner. A miner could finance the purchase of more computer equipment by borrowing in bitcoin, as its income is in bitcoin. It has no currency risk (and indeed would have a currency risk if it borrowed in dollars). Yet, this reader persisted. Bitcoin has a futures market now. Look at the term structure, he said. Now, we were really interested. A futures market and a forward curve! Hmmmm. ???? We did some looking around, and found some bitcoin futures exchanges. Each is different. Settlement on contract maturity is not clear to us at this point. But one thing is clear. The purpose of these exchanges is to allow speculation on bitcoin with leverage. They are not warehousing markets as we see in commodities, coordinating seasonal production with year-round consumption. According to our reader, there is a forward curve (in 30 minutes of Googling, we were not able to find a web page that showed prices of various contracts perhaps because we are looking on the weekend). He offered (on Monday, Aug 7) that when bitcoin was $3,370, the Sep 29 contract (53 days) was $3,435.2. This is a difference of $65.20. Contango. It is important to note that this is a dollar profit, to be made on one’s dollars. If one had $3,370 one could use the bitcoin market to make more dollars. One would simultaneously buy 1 bitcoin and sell 1 bitcoin contract forward (about two months to maturity). One would end with the same dollars, plus pick up an additional 65 bucks, or about 12% annualized. This 12% is not based on any move in the price of bitcoin, and in fact one would have no exposure to change in price. Regular readers will note that this is a carry trade, which occurs in the gold market all the time. There is no way to start with 1 bitcoin, and end with 1.12 bitcoins. Try to work out how this could be done. If you sell the bitcoin and buy the future, that is a decarry. Decarrying would lose money (more than carrying could make). The bitcoin futures market would seem (we are taking the reader’s price quotes at face value) to offer a rich interest rate on your dollars. We assume this is because of the risks of these fledgling bitcoin futures markets. Does anyone even know if they are calculating margin correctly, segregating it properly, and managing the clearinghouse with an appropriate level of financial controls? If there were no risk, then anyone with access to borrow at LIBOR (about 1.25% for two month duration) could crush this spread. Instead of $3,435.20, a two-month contract should sell for $3,377 (based on $3,370 bitcoin). Instead of $62.20, one should be able to make around $7. So as it stands, we see no real evidence of bitcoin lending and borrowing. We looked and found one open request to borrow bitcoin (this borrower says he will use the loan proceeds to buy machines to mine bitcoin). We see that even if there is a working bitcoin futures exchange, it offers a dollar yield on dollars, not a bitcoin yield on bitcoin. Like with gold. The gold forward rate is not a gold yield. It’s a dollar yield to carry gold. Gold offers an arbitrage that is not available in bitcoin. One can borrow dollars, buy gold, sell a future, and lend the gold out to a business that is using gold. As gold is a physical good, there are businesses that do things to transform its purity, shape, and location. For example, refiners and jewelers. It’s simpler and less expensive for them to finance their gold needs in gold directly from Monetary Metals, than it is to borrow dollars and hedge the price risk. Thus, bullion banks perform the arbitrage described above all day long. In theory one could do similarly with bitcoin, but that would only make sense if there were bitcoin-generating businesses who borrowed in bitcoin. And, back to our original point, the bitcoin itself is not borrowed into existence. It is printed (again, at a controlled rate with an ultimate cap on quantity). Therefore, bitcoin’s value is set purely by speculators only. So long as speculators expect the price to keep rising, they will keep buying and fulfill their own prophecy. When the chart begins to look ugly—all speculators are looking at the same chart—then the price action will turn. Behind each bitcoin, there is not a debtor bidding up bitcoin with the products of his labor. As of this writing, the price of bitcoin is now $4,150. This is a gain of $780 from the time of our discussion with the reader! If one had borrowed bitcoin at that time, as the reader insisted one could reasonably do, one already suffers a monthly payment 22% higher than it was earlier this week. We believe principles of economics can be examined and validated this week. Find a concrete example, and see how the theory works out. If borrowing a rising currency is hazardous to your wealth, what does that say about bitcoin’s suitability for borrowing? When its price begins to fall again (it has happened before) then the destruction occurs on the other side. Borrowers’ gains will come from speculators’ pain (we insist it’s speculators, not savers—bitcoin is not a suitable vehicle for savings). The prices of the metals was up sharply this week, especially on Wednesday. Was it manipulation? Yes, we know, we are not supposed to ask if price rises are manipulation. Only price dips can be manipulation, and rises are just nature taking its course. But we ask anyways? Ok… no. No, it was not manipulation. We saw exactly the change in the gold and silver bases that we would expect in a rising market. We will show graphs of the basis, the true measure of the fundamentals. But first, here are the charts of the prices of gold and silver, and the gold-silver ratio. Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. The ratio moved down sharply this week. In this graph, we show both bid and offer prices for the gold-silver ratio. If you were to sell gold on the bid and buy silver at the ask, that is the lower bid price. Conversely, if you sold silver on the bid and bought gold at the offer, that is the higher offer price. For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red. Here is the gold graph. The dollar fell this week (the mirror image of the rising price of gold), now down to not much over 24mg gold. And the basis rose a bit, 11bps. Gold became a little more abundant, but not a lot, at the higher price. About $28 higher. Our calculated gold fundamental price rose about $15 (chart here). About half as much as the market price went up. Now let’s look at silver. In silver, the move up in the basis is greater. Keep in mind that we are approaching the expiry of the September silver contract, so a rising basis is a move against the pressures of the contract roll which is ongoing. Our calculated silver fundamental rose $0.46 (chart here). Whereas the market price is up $0.80. Speculators are pushing up the price a bit more than the firming fundamentals would justify. Are they manipulating the price of the metal? Of course not! All buying causes price to rise. And speculators are hoping to profit (as they reckon it, in dollars) from the rise. They don’t care (or mostly know) that the price is being driven more by speculators than by buyers of metal. They just want to sell at a higher price than they bought. Last week, we asked rhetorically: So is the silver selloff over? It’s hard to tell. The fundamentals were firming this week—the fundamental price did not move down much during the move. -$0.09 from Thursday to Friday. On the other hand, speculators may be putting in sell orders over the weekend and may decide to bail out on Monday. Momentum can be self-fulfilling. Clearly the selloff was over. Fundamentals beat momentum. It happens every time, though the timing of the victory and the elasticity of the speculation is impossible to predict. One thing is for sure. If the fundamentals don’t continue to firm up further, or at least hold at the present level, then this rally is doomed like all of the others in the last 6 years. © 2017 Monetary Metals
Еврокомиссия выступает против антироссийских санкций США, которые затрагивают интересы ЕС. Вот только ФРГ уже исключила проекты "Северного потока - 2" из списка перспективных. Запасы нефти в США сокращаются быстрее, чем ожидалось. Это на фоне падения добычи и роста импорта. Котировки бумажного барреля отреагировали ростом. Это помогает рублю - нивелирует риски, связанные с санкциями. Криптовалюты снова штормит: в минусе все цифровые деньги, но несмотря на волатильность - объем торгов продолжает расти. О перспективах биткоина и его конкурентов поговорим с интернет-омбудсменом Дмитрием Мариничевым.
Валентин Катасонов: "Кончается эпоха товарно-денежных отношений, начинается эпоха распределения в концлагере." Какую роль сыграл золотой стандарт в истории Российской империи, Китая, Великобритании и США. Как Бреттон-Вудское (1944) и Ямайское (1976) соглашения изменили мир. #ДеньТВ #Катасонов #Перетолчин #финансы #экономика #рубль #доллар #золото #золотойстандарт #биткоин #Китай #Ротшильды #Рокфеллеры #США #промышленность #Россия #Великобритания #будущее #ДеГолль #банки #мировыеэлиты #финансовыйкапитал #БреттонВудс #Ямайка
Самая популярная в мире книга о Биткойне «Цифровое Золото: История Биткойна» выходит на русском языке. Издательство "Диалектика" только что анонсировало печатное издание, которое поступит в книжные магазины в феврале-марте.
Максимальный в текущем году взлет курс виртуальной валюты биткоин может быть связан с ростом популярности в Китае «социальной финансовой сети» МММ, созданной российским гражданином Сергеем Мавроди, пишет газета Financial Times. На торгах в минувшую среду, 4 ноября, курс биткоина увеличился на 20% и преодолел отметку в 490 долларов. Прежние скачки биткоина наблюдались 24 октября и 28 октября, когда криптовалюта впервые с июля этого года достигла курса 300 долларов. Начиная с 31 октября и до настоящего времени курс криптовалюты вырос еще на 121 доллар. В целом за последний месяц цена биткоинов выросла в 2 раза. Как отмечает Financial Times, в Китае МММ заработал еще в 2014 году, однако местные граждане начали активно интересоваться новым проектом Мавроди лишь в последний месяц. По правилам созданной Мавроди китайской «социальной финансовой сети», новые члены МММ должны покупать криптовалюту, чтобы вступить в сеть. Затем биткоины отправляются другим участникам проекта в качестве «взаимопомощи». Создатели сети обещают ее участникам ежемесячный доход в 30% и вознаграждение за привлечение новых членов.
Глава Сбербанка Герман Греф на пресс-конференции с журналистами в Москве заявил, что процесс распространения виртуальных валют – это отражение нового этапа развития технологий. Однако при этом будет развиваться и глобальное регулирование подобных валют. Греф коснулся темы виртуальных валют, которая в последнее время продолжает становится все более популярной во всем мире. По мнению президента Сбербанка, мир находится на новом этапе технологического развития, и виртуальные валюты в будущем получат намного более широкое распространение, чем сегодня. Глава Сбербанка заявил, что в случае дальнейшего увеличения спроса на виртуальную валюту Сбербанк также будет двигаться в этом направлении. Он отметил, что "не исключает эмиссии виртуальной валюты на основе платежной системы "Яндекс.Деньги". "Пока это не эмитируемая валюта, это первый шаг в эту сторону. Мы не спешим с этим. Сама технология нехитрая, надо посмотреть весь коммерческий смысл и привлекательность для клиентов". При этом, по мнению Грефа, для подобных валют в дальнейшем не обойтись без регулирования: "Мир уже не остановить, он пошел в этом направлении, и я думаю, что те грандиозные эксперименты, которые проходят с bitcoin, должны закончиться один-два раза крахом, с тем чтобы было выработано глобальное регулирование" Комментарии Германа Грефа фактически означают, что финансовые власти России, также как и власти во многих других странах мира, внимательно следят за развитием ситуации вокруг виртуальных валют. Bitcoin привлекает к себе все больше внимания BofA: bitcoin имеет большой потенциал Банк Франции предупреждает о рисках bitcoin Bitcoin отправляется в космос Бурный рост котировок, повышенная волатильность, рост мирового признания и комментариев по поводу bitcoin стали одной из ярких примет уходящего года. Свои взгляды по поводу перспектив данной валюты уже высказали и продолжают высказывать банковские компании, центробанки мира, предприниматели, крупные экономисты. Bitcoin как прототип валюты будущего Портал vestifinance также постарался не остаться в стороне и высказал свою точку зрения по поводу возможных перспектив развития виртуальных валют. В этой связи стоит отметить, что комментарии представителей финансовых властей России и мира о необходимости более жесткого регулирования и контролем над эмиссией виртуальных валюты вполне ожидаемы и понятны с точки зрения обеспечения стабильности финансовой системы, контроля над ее развитием и возможностей по влиянию на экономику. Однако при этом не стоит забывать, что инвестиционный интерес к bitcoin – как к одному из явных лидеров среди виртуальных валют на текущем этапе – во многом обусловлен тем, что данная валютная система является децентрализованной и в исходном коде криптовалюты изначально заложено ограничение в объемах ее эмиссии. В глазах многих людей во всем мире именно эти факторы являются причиной привлекательности bitcoin, именно поэтому bitcoin иногда называют "синтетическим золотом". Финансовый контроль и регулирование виртуальных валют, скорее всего, превратит их в аналог бумажных денег, что в свою очередь может отнять существенную долю привлекательности подобных платежных средств.
Коллаж Bitcoinmagazine.comПузырящаяся bitcoin остается привлекательным объектом для инвестиций. Сегодня венчурный фонд Andreessen Horowitz вложился в систему кошельков криптовалюты под названием Coinbase. Совместно с другими инвесторами фонд обогатил ее на $25 млн. Bitcoin по-прежнему не оправилась от "китайского удара", когда власти КНР запретили финансовым компаниям страны проводить операции в криптовалюте. Одна бит-монетка сейчас стоит около $860 против более чем $1 тыс. в ноябре, но инвесторов это не останавливает. Andreessen Horowitz, Union Square Ventures и Ribbit Capital с удовольствием поучаствовали в очередном раунде финансирования Coinbase. Несколько менеджеров фонда теперь войдут в совет директоров компании. $25 млн, которые были вложены в Coinbase, являются крупнейшей инвестиционной сделкой в рамках поддержки криптовалюты и доводят общий объем финансирования системы электронных кошельков до $31 млн. Энтузиазм венчурных капиталистов вполне объясним. В Coinbase держат свои криптомонеты уже 600 тыс. человек, и ежедневно база пользователей увеличивается на фантастические 10 тыс. Интерес к bitcoin настолько велик, что даже такие серьезные банки, как Bank of America, начинают открыто говорить о радужных перспективах этой валюты. Аналитики BofA отмечают, что, по их оценкам, “максимальный уровень справедливой стоимости” bitcoin составляет $1300 при максимальной капитализации всей валютной системы в $15 млрд. По оценкам издания Barron's, при текущем уровне цен капитализация bitcoin составляет около $12 млрд. Иными словами, по мнению экспертов BofA, для роста у криптовалюты еще есть около $500 в запасе. А в конечном итоге котировки виртуальных денег, к которым в данный момент не применимы термины "инфляция" и "обеспечение", определяются одним лишь спросом. В такой ситуации, если вы - венчурный фонд, логично вложить деньги в наращивание спроса, то есть в ускорение информационной экспансии bitcoin. Именно этим и занимается Andreessen Horowitz, который называет криптовалюту "технологическим прорывом". Ссылки по теме BofA: bitcoin имеет большой потенциал Bitcoin как прототип валюты будущего Два bitcoin-хакера попали под арест в Германии Предсказывать, когда пузырь лопнет, пока не берется никто. Одной только Coinbase пользуются 16 тыс. предприятий, то есть у криптовалюты есть поддержка не только со стороны спекулянтов, энтузиастов и дельцов черного рынка, но и со стороны реально существующих компаний, считающих ее перспективным носителем для проведения транзакций. Напомним, что виртуальные кошельки bitcoin однажды чуть не превратились в реальные. Майк Кальдвелл начал выпускать так называемые casascius - монеты, на которых был указан код, воспользовавшись которым, владелец bitcoin мог получить доступ к его цифровой версии. Однако Казначейство США запретило распространение таких монет. Подробнее о bitcoin как о прототипе валюты будущего вы можете почитать в нашей редакционной статье, где мы рассматриваем криптовалюту как эксперимент. При всех своих плюсах и минусах, вероятно, bitcoin, litecoin и так далее будут оставаться “вещью в себе”, платежными средствами, которые смогут занимать лишь определенные нишевые позиции. Однако отдельные факторы, такие как, например, защищенность кода, вполне могут и, скорее всего, будут использованы властями при валютных нововведениях в будущем. Святослав Бочаров
Пузырящийся Bitcoin остается привлекательным объектом для инвестиций. Сегодня венчурный фонд Andreessen Horowitz вложился в систему кошельков криптовалюты под названием Coinbase. Совместно с другими инвесторами фонд обогатил ее на $25 млн.
Лавина всевозможных новостей, статей, аналитики и прогнозов на тему bitcoin в этом году по своему объему превзошла все, что публиковалось на тему виртуальных валют ранее. Многие уже успели устать от этого и предпочитают не обращать внимания на информационный поток вокруг bitcoin. В этом смысле может показаться, что это “просто еще одна статья” про и без того распиаренную тему. Однако скорее это попытка пробиться сквозь “белый шум” и ответить на вопрос, что несут в себе виртуальные валюты для будущего? Активное распространение виртуальных валют – примета времени. Такая же как 3D-печать (3D-printing) или дополненная реальность (augmented reality). Технологии, которые совсем недавно были лишь предметом научно-фантастической литературы, в начале XXI века начали обретать реальные очертания. Выдавать прогнозы по поводу будущего может кто угодно, тем более по темам, которые так или иначе идут по зыбкой грани между футурологией и конспирологией. Прогнозы в достаточно больших временных фреймах – дело неблагодарное. Чем больше глубина прогноза по времени, тем выше вероятность ошибок. И все же попробуем сделать несколько шагов вперед, не упасть в грязь лицом, не удариться в крайности и, по возможности, трезво взглянуть на перспективы bitcoin и подобных ему виртуальных валют. Является ли bitcoin деньгами? В первую очередь – что такое деньги? Любая бумажная купюра – это обещание стоимости со стороны Центробанка той или иной страны. Является ли bitcoin и подобные ему виртуальные валюты (litecoin, ripple и другие) в этом смысле деньгами? При всех различиях (в частности, ограничения по размеру эмиссии, открытый-закрытый код и так далее) ни один Центробанк мира не признает их в качестве легального платежного средства. Возможно, подобное признание – это вопрос времени, и финансовые власти просто не смогут игнорировать виртуальные деньги, по мере того как их популярность будет расти? BofA: bitcoin имеет большой потенциал Аналитики Bank of America Merill Lynch, которые одними из первых среди мировых банковских компаний попытались оценить перспективы bitcoin, считают, что bitcoin в дальнейшем сможет сохранить статус валюты и платежного средства. При этом они также провели аналогии bitcoin с серебром. Энтузиасты bitcoin считают, что подобные сравнения вполне справедливы. Некоторые полагают, что виртуальные валюты вскоре смогут составить конкуренцию мировым валютам. Известный приверженец австрийской школы экономики, член палаты представителей Конгресса США Рон Пол, в частности, в начале декабря 2013 г. в интервью CNN заявил, что “bitcoin может уничтожить доллар” (Ron Paul: Bitcoin could 'destroy the dollar'). Попробуем ответить на более конкретный вопрос: сможет ли bitcoin и подобные ему валюты получить широкое распространение во всем мире? Фактически они уже идут по этому пути. Список компаний, которые принимают bitcoin в качестве платежного средства, постоянно растет. Один из примеров совокупного количества компаний, сайтов и организаций, которые принимают bitcoin – spendbitcoins.com/places/. За биткойны уже продают автомобили ("Электрокар за криптовалюту"), в ряде кафе в нескольких странах мира за bitcoin можно даже покушать, начали появляться банкоматы, которые позволяют осуществлять операции с биткоинами. Ричард Брэнсон заявил, что готов продать желающим билеты на будущие коммерческие рейсы SpaceShipTwo (справедливости ради, пока не состоялось ни одного, но испытания суборбитального модуля все же продвигаются). Однако как далеко bitcoin сможет пойти, сможет ли она “уничтожить доллар” или хотя бы составить ему конкуренцию? Проблема ограниченной эмиссии, ближайшее будущее Ограничение по максимальному размеру эмиссии – это и преимущество, и недостаток bitсoin, а также подобных ему виртуальных валют. Преимущество заключается в выгодном восприятии данной валюты в отличие от бумажных валют, которые печатаются в неограниченном объеме. Однако при этом финансовая система построена на постоянном увеличении денежной эмиссии. Печатание денег со стороны мировых центробанков де-факто стало одним из способов борьбы с финансовым кризисом. PIMCO: действия мировых ЦБ ведут к повышению рисков Дракенмиллер: ФРС грабит бедных, помогает богатым Ряд экспертов ставят под сомнение эффективность данной монетарной политики, другие критикуют ее как один из инструментов в “величайшем перераспределении богатства за всю историю человечества”. Но тем не менее это факт, объективная данность текущего развития финансовой системы развитых стран мира. Девальвация национальных валют, которая наглядно прослеживается на примере доллара, идет уже давно, речь идет не о нескольких годах и не только о финансовом кризисе. Графика: American Institute for Economic Research, The AIER Cost-of-Living Guide В более широкой перспективе печатание собственной валюты является одним из способов сохранения конкурентоспособности экономики по отношению к другим странам. Термины “конкурентоспособная девальвация” и “валютные войны” – это также объективная реальность. Что еще более важно, речь идет о стремлении к девальвации валюты для снижения расходов по обслуживанию госдолга отдельных стран. В этом смысле не имеет значения, сможет ли bitcoin действительно "уничтожить" доллар или евро. Важно понимать, что ограниченность в масштабе эмиссии мировой экономике – при текущей модели ее развития – автоматически ограничивает возможности bitcoin в плане замены ведущих мировых валют. Контроль, еще дальше в будущее Заглянем в XXY-нный век. Например, в тот же 2140 г., когда, согласно текущим ограничениям в коде, предполагается, что будет эмитирован последний bitcoin. Возможно, будет принято решение модифицировать код bitcoin, и эмиссия продолжится. Может ли bitcoin трансформироваться в некие безличные “кредиты”? "Кредитоспособность – вещь добровольная. Она не устанавливается законом. В цивилизованном мире всякой личности предоставлено право решать самой. Я очень сожалею, сэр. — Он поглядел на часы и протянул Коллинзу бумагу, которую просматривал. – Прошу вас взглянуть на этот счет и сказать, всё ли здесь в порядке". Коллинз взял бумагу и прочел: Один дворец с оборудованием 450000000 кр. Услуги такелажников фирмы "Поуха минайл", а также фирмы "Максимо олф" 111000 кр. Сто двадцать две танцовщицы 122000000 кр. Безукоризненное здоровье 888234031 кр. Коллинз быстро пробежал глазами весь счет. Общая сумма слегка превышала восемнадцать миллиардов кредитов". Роберт Шекли, “Кое-что задаром, 1954 г.” Здесь возникает проблема контроля над эмиссией подобной валюты. Интернет кишит всевозможными цитатами о преимуществе контроля за выпуском денег в отдельных странах над законодательной властью. Оставим в стороне теории о выпуске “амеро” или чуть более реального варианта в виде SDR (Special Drawing Rights, специальные права заимствования) от МВФ. Возьмем пример высказывания, атрибуция которого реально подтверждена: “В течение уже более ста лет идеологические экстремисты на всех концах политического спектра с энтузиазмом ссылаются на некоторые известные события, такие как мой неудачный опыт с Кастро, для того чтобы обвинить семью Рокфеллеров во всеохватывающем угрожающем влиянии, которое, как они заявляют, мы оказываем на американские политические и экономические институты. Некоторые даже верят, что мы являемся частью секретной политической группы, работающей против интересов Соединенных Штатов, и характеризуют мою семью и меня как „интернационалистов“, вступивших в сговор с другими группами по всему миру для построения более интегрированной глобальной политической и экономической структуры – единого мира, если угодно. Если обвинение заключается в этом, то я признаю себя виновным, и я этим горжусь”. Дэвид Рокфеллер, "Мемуары", 2002 Процесс глобализации, так или иначе, продолжается. Проект Евросоюза и его более продвинутая стадия в виде еврозоны – стран, которые отказались от собственных валют в пользу евро, – являются наглядным примером этого. Пока что нет гарантий, что этот проект будет всегда оставаться жизнеспособным. Однако есть и другие примеры. Развитие ВТО в единую систему торговых отношений, в которой нормы данной системы выше норм, установленных в отдельных странах – это также пример глобализации. Структуры в виде МВФ и Всемирного банка, а также всевозможных транснациональных корпораций – это также данность. Перенос производства в развивающиеся страны с более низкими издержками в виде оплаты труда (а также потенциально ближе к новым рынкам сбыта в развивающихся странах) пока также никто не собирается отменять. Тесный симбиоз властных структур и корпораций пока что остается одним из магистральных вариантов развития подобного "нового, дивного мира". В такой системе нет места для широкого использования валюты, которая фактически неподконтрольна никому. Безличные “кредиты” в мире будущего, в котором будут полностью стерты границы государств и исчезнут национальные валюты – если такой мир, не дай бог, когда-либо наступит, – будут жестко контролироваться. Поэтому bitcoin скорее стоит рассматривать как эксперимент в реальном времени, который “определяет рамки дозволенного”. Финансовые власти будут внимательно наблюдать за развитием этого эксперимента. Об этом свидетельствуют комментарии со стороны чиновников ФРС, ЕЦБ, американских сенаторов. В этом свете выводы для bitcoin неутешительны. Мировым финансовым властям и элитам не нужна децентрализованная денежная система с виртуальной криптовалютой, в исходном коде которой изначально заложено ограничение по эмиссии. Саморегулирующаяся финансовая система на основе bitcoin – это чистой воды утопия. В результате, применимо к прогнозам о будущем bitcoin, цитаты вроде "Дайте мне контроль над выпуском денег в государстве, и мне плевать, кто будет писать его законы" более соответствуют реальному положению вещей в мире. При всех своих плюсах и минусах, вероятно, виртуальные валюты и дальше будут оставаться “вещью в себе”, платежными средствами, которые смогут занимать лишь определенные нишевые позиции. Однако отдельные факторы, такие как, например, защищенность кода, вполне могут и, скорее всего, будут использованы властями при валютных нововведениях в будущем. В частности, не исключено, что вместо "вживления чипов" RFID и прочего сатанизма, которым пугают людей, личные данные в виде всевозможных паспортов, водительских прав и прочих документов могли бы быть совмещены с личным кошельком человека – не в виде кредитной карты или биометрических паспортов, а именно в виде кода, который был бы уникальным для каждого человека. Вот только хакеры... Сергей Вафин
На крупнейшей площадке обмена виртуальной валюты биткоин — Mt.Gox в Токио — цена за один биткоин вчера достигла $1061. В то же время в Словении на площадке Bitstamp за него давали $965. А индекс биткоина для бирж Bitstamp и BTC-e, который рассчитывает Coindesk, оказался около $950. Разброс в котировках осложняет жизнь инвесторам, которым тяжело определить его реальную стоимость. Coindesk обещает упростить им задачу, включив в свой индекс биткоина котировки на Mt.Gox. Эмиссия и торговля биткоином не регулируются, поэтому для него характерны большие колебания цены. Еще в начале 2013 г. биткоин стоил менее $14. Но растущая популярность и тот факт, что власти США признали биткоин законной финансовой услугой, способствовали резкому росту цены. В результате с января котировки биткоина на бирже Mt.Gox поднялись более чем на 7400%. Многие люди, которые пользуются биткоином, изначально определили котировки на Mt.Gox ориентиром для ценообразования, поскольку она была наиболее популярной в мире биржей для этой виртуальной валюты. Но ситуация изменилась после ряда технических проблем на бирже и блокировки (с июня) возможности конвертировать биткоины в доллары США. По оценкам продукт-менеджера Coindesk Джереми Бонни, на долю токийской биржи сейчас приходится 25% объема мировой торговли биткоином против 80% в начале года. Тем не менее он считает, что по-прежнему значительная роль Mt.Gox должна быть отражена в индексе: «Внимание к биткоину в мире увеличивается, и мы думаем, что Mt.Gox имеет международное значение». На индекс Coindesk ориентируются многие пользователи биткоина. Например, основатель и гендиректор компании Varsity Tutors, принимающей платежи в этой виртуальной валюте, Чак Кон считает его основным индикатором стоимости, хотя также смотрит цены на других биржах. «Если бы я покупал биткоин, я был бы готов заплатить дороже в обмен на спокойствие», — говорит он. Компания Bitcoin Foundation, которая занимается развитием этой валюты и платит в ней своим сотрудникам, также использует индекс Coindesk для своих расчетов.
На этой неделе независимая виртуальная валюта биткоин была признана легальной и подлежащей налогообложению в Германии. Впервые о биткоине заговорили в 2008 году, когда анонимный создатель опубликовал руководство по использованию виртуальной валюты. С тех пор она завоевывала всё большую популярность по всему миру и теперь принимается в тысячах небольших интернет-магазинов. Этой весной стоимость биткоина достигла рекордного максимума. В апреле он стоил 260 долларов США. Подробности у корреспондента RT Питера Оливера. Подписывайтесь на RT Russian - http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=rtrussian RT на русском - http://russian.rt.com/ Vkontakte - http://vk.com/rt_russian Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/RTRussian Twitter - http://twitter.com/RT_russian Livejournal - http://rt-russian.livejournal.com/
Федеральный суд США постановил, что интернет-валюта биткоин является реальными деньгами. Подсудимый из Техаса, которого обвиняли в отмывании миллионов долларов через систему «Биткоин», в свою защиту утверждал, что биткоин — валюта виртуальная, а поэтому махинации с ней не могут быть признаны мошенничеством. Однако он проиграл дело. Корреспондент RT Питер Оливер встретился с теми, кто уже давно даже не сомневается, что биткоин — это настоящая валюта. Подписывайтесь на RT Russian - http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=rtrussian RT на русском - http://russian.rt.com/ Vkontakte - http://vk.com/rt_russian Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/RTRussian Twitter - http://twitter.com/RT_russian Livejournal - http://rt-russian.livejournal.com/
Двадцать лет назад я начал печатать деньги. Вскоре после этого жители Итаки, штат Нью-Йорк, начали обмениваться цветными бумажными деньгами с изображением детей, водопадов, трамвайчиков и жучков. С тех пор оборот среди тысяч людей и свыше 500 предприятий составил миллионы долларов, эквивалентные ЧАСАМ в Итаке. За ЧАСЫ можно купить всё, что покупается за доллары: продукты питания, жильё, землю, услуги здравоохранения и любые развлечения.Сначала, когда это было чем-то новым, многие были настроены скептически. Но почти сразу сотни людей охотно вступили в список торгового обмена.Например, эти дополнительные средства доказали свою силу благодаря укреплению местных предприятий, созданию рабочих мест и увеличению доходов от налогов с продаж. Каждый ЧАС оценивается в $10/час, или один час основного труда. Профессионалы могут запрашивать несколько ЧАСОВ за час работы, или назначать справедливую цену за свой труд. ЧАСЫ были предназначены не для замены доллара, а для восполнения недостатка долларов. Дополнительные деньги сообщества, которые поощряли умения и способности, не востребованные основной экономикой, были стимулом для предпринимательства и создания новых рабочих мест. Были и другие преимущества. Более сотни групп сообщества получили субсидии в ЧАСАХ, и выдавались беспроцентные ссуды размером до $30 000.Но самым большим преимуществом местных денег было сближение жителей друг с другом, они лучше узнали друг друга, стали друзьями и политическими союзниками. ЧАСЫ легко объединяют людей, тогда как доллары часто управляют людьми. Как бумага превращается в деньги? Валюты, например, национальные банкноты, нуждаются в сетевом и брокерском обслуживании, обеспечивающем надёжное и сбалансированное обращение. Поэтому для каждой местной валюты необходим по меньшей мере один профессиональный работник, обслуживающий сеть. Моей основной деятельностью как организатора системы ЧАСОВ было привлечение в систему новых умений и навыков, публикация выходящего два раза в месяц каталога Город ЧАСОВ, и помощь людям в расходовании заработанных средств.Почему ЧАСЫ? Потому что ЧАСЫ надёжны, как часы, ведь минуты не растягиваются и не сжимаются. И каждый имеет больше часов, чем золота.В наше время, однако, популярен интернет-трейдинг внутренних кредитов. Во многих американских городах люди зарабатывали и тратили «временные доллары». В мировой торговле применяются такие основанные на времени системы, как BitCoin, TimeRepublik и E-Flux.Но по-моему, бумажные деньги с местными эмблемами подчёркивают местную гордость. Какая страна без флага, фирма без логотипа, или местная торговля без узнаваемых символов?Использует ли сообщество в качестве денег бумагу, электроны или металл, для успешного выпуска необходимо постоянное продвижение. Слово ЧАСЫ вошли в повседневную речь жителей Итаки благодаря сотням рассказов в общенациональных новостях и тысячам местных обсуждений. Каталог Город ЧАСОВ опубликовал 300 местных «историй успеха» довольных своим делом трейдеров. За пять лет практически все поняли, что означают ЧАСЫ, и проявили готовность присоединиться к этой системе. Дети думали, что все города печатают деньги.Возможности для создания «своих» денег всегда есть в любом крупном городе. Возможны также отраслевые валюты, например, ArtCash поможет развитию творчества и ремёсел; MediCash сделает более разнообразным здравоохранение; NegaWatts будет способствовать экономному использованию энергии.Зелёная экономика Америки также заслуживает собственных денег, используемых для целей экологии и социальной справедливости. Подобные кредиты могут стимулировать не приносящие быстрых прибылей зелёные рынки, которые долгое время обходили стороной крупные инвесторы: рациональное использование энергии и модернизация, выращивание сельскохозяйственных культур в городских условиях, кооперация в здравоохранении, землебитные дома и городской транспорт.Запуск в работу специальных денег, а вместе с ними и нас самих, открывает возможности для исправления цивилизации. Когда мы берём деньги под контроль, Мы, Народ, становимся владельцами сокровищницы, и сами становимся сокровищем.Ссылка