Опубликованные отчеты американских корпораций не дают повода говорить об улучшении экономической сит
Сегодня утром внешний новостной фон был удручающим. Финансовая отчетность Apple, на которую так рассчитывали всю неделю, "утянула" индексы вниз: Apple заявила о прибыли в размере $8,67 на акцию против ожидавшихся $8,75. В общем-то, незначительное отставание от прогнозов, тем не менее, явилось результатом того, что на расширенных торгах вчера бумаги Apple просели ниже $600 за штуку. Рынкам АТР дополнительную подножку сегодня утром подставили корпоративные отчеты Unicom Hong Kong, BOC Hong Kong Holdings, Yamaha, Fanuc, China Unicom, которые оказались хуже ожиданий. Кроме того, Южная Корея рапортовала о самом низком за последние три года приросте ВВП в 3 квартале (+1,6% за год при запланированных +1,9%). Нельзя не отметить и сохраняющиеся дефляционные тенденции в Японии (-0,3% в сентябре при плане в -0,1%). На европейской сессии масло в огонь добавила отчетность Ericsson (-4,88% на 1
From RanSquawk European assets come under heavy selling pressure from the open as Moody's downgrades five Spanish regions, and El Confidencial writes that Spain will miss their 2012 deficit targets imposed by the EU. Spanish short-end particularly suffers, as the 2yr yield gains over 8bps in the European morning, and the SP/GE 10yr bond yield spread approaches 400bps. Focus for the US session on Bank of Canada rate decision, and Richmond Fed numbers Market Re-Cap The Mañana approach endorsed by the Spanish government is finally beginning to have its toll on investor confidence and after being contained by the so-called Draghi put, 2y bond yields are up over 20bps for the second consecutive day. The decoupling that is being observed is being driven by yesterday’s downgrade of several Spanish regions by Moody’s, citing deterioration in their liquidity positions. As a result, Spain runs a risk of being forced to raise the size of its regional bailout fund which stands at EUR 18bln, with EUR 17.2bln already tapped, as the latest downgrade will likely put an upward pressure on borrowing costs. Major equity markets in Europe are down close to 1%, led by basic materials and oil & gas sectors, as WTI continues to consolidate below the key USD 90 level, while spot Gold continues to lose its shine and is looking to make a test USD 1700. The second half of the session sees the release of the latest Richmond Fed report, as well as the weekly API report. Asian Headlines The Nikkei 225 closed higher by 0.04%, at 9,014, as the JPY remained weaker against the USD for much of the overnight session, touching its weakest level since early July after briefly breaking 80.00 to the upside in USD/JPY. The Shanghai Composite closed lower by 0.86% after reports of a looming property tax weighed on appetite for Chinese stocks amid light volumes as Hong Kong traders were kept from their desks due to a market holiday. Additionally, Citigroup further cut their Chinese 2012 GDP forecast to 7.7% from 7.9%. US Headlines A CNN poll said 48% say Obama won the third presidential debate while 40% say Romney won. (CNN) A CBS news instant poll said 53% say Obama won while 23% say Romney; 43% said it was a tie. (CBS) EU & UK Headlines Following the US close yesterday, Moody's downgraded five Spanish regions, citing deteriorating liquidity profiles. The reports have thrown into question the efficacy of the regional liquidity fund, which is close to its resource cap of EUR 18bln, after regions request EUR 17.18bln of the funds. Further to this, El Confidencial have written that Spain are to miss their EU-imposed 2012 deficit target of 6.3% by one percentage point, prompting participants to speculate that the worst is yet to come for Spain, despite the considerable easing in borrowing costs since last week. The Bank of Spain have said Q3 GDP in Spain is to fall 0.4%, and Y/Y growth at -1.7%, as domestic demand continues to fall alongside higher unemployment. (Newswires) Equities European equities are heading south ahead of the Wall Street open, as sentiment towards the periphery sours, prompting risk-aversion across the asset classes. The risk-off theme is evident in the sector breakdown, as basic materials, oil & gas and financials suffer the heaviest losses. US stock futures are moving in line with their European counterparts, indicating a lower open on Wall Street today. In individual equities news, Nokia are trading heavy after news that they are looking to raise EUR 750mln in a bond offering, as the company seeks to take advantage of record low capital market rates and avoid the inherent riskiness of the stock markets. Nokia shares trade lower by over 6% at the midpoint of the European session as a result of the news. FX Heavy selling in the riskier currencies has prompted a resurgence in USD-strength, pushing EUR/USD briefly below the 1.30 handle before running into stops below the level. The slide in the EUR follows Moody's decisions overnight on the regions, with the sentiment being compounded by El Confidencial's reports. USD/JPY remains a pair of focus, breaking through 80.00 to the upside overnight, but has come back below the mark as prolonged JPY weakness continues to be thwarted by it's safe haven status. The driver of FX markets for the US session will likely continue to be the USD, barring any surprises from the Eurozone, with Richmond Fed due following the Wall Street open, however the BoC rate decision could prompt CAD volatility. Commodities WTI and Brent crude futures trade with losses ahead of the NYMEX pit open, as the WTI Crude falls below USD 88.00/bbl. The moves in the energy complex follow the slide in the broader stock market, and the resurgence of USD strength in the FX markets. Additionally, TransCanada have restarted their 590,000 BPD Keystone pipeline, albeit at lower volumes in order to conduct checks. Spot gold and silver prices are also trading at the lows halfway through the European session, in line with the wider commodities market.
Easy come, easier go. After yesterday's last hour ramp driven by a MarketWatch article that said absolutely nothing new about the Fed's monetization plans and an AAPL surge which saw the firm add $22 billion in market cap in one day (or more than the market cap of CBS Corp) sent stocks green, the overnight session has taken it all away and then some, with futures now trading roughly 12 ticks lower or at yesterday's lowest levels. The catalyst is, once again, Spain where Moody's downgraded five Spanish regions including Catalonia after the market close (for the reason, see our piece from the weekend "Spanish Regional Bailout Fund Runs Out Of Money"), coupled with news from Confidencial that Spain's budget deficit will overshoot the EU target of 6.3% and hit at least 7.3%, driven by a €10.5 billion deficit in the social security system, trashing the promises from last month's Spain's "reform" package, and as BNP said (confirming what we warned weeks ago), making the conditionality hurdle suddenly that much higher for Spain. And just as the world was getting comfortable that Spain will get away with using the OMP with virtually no conditions. The cherry on top came from France where the business conditions index slid to a 3 year low on expectations a trough had been put in place. The result is a tumble in the EURUSD to below the 1.3000 barrier, dragging stock futures, commodities, and of course Europe with it, sending the Spanish bond curve yield higher, and generally giving a very sour mood to the day as traders walk in. What to watch out for today (via SocGen): In the eurozone, France will be the first to publish its business confidence index. Expected flat at 90, it might indicate that pessimism in 2012 has bottomed out in the eurozone and the worst is behind us. It should also provide an initial indication before tomorrow's publication of confidence indices for the entire eurozone. Stabilisation would thus be good news, even if the road to returning to solid growth might still be long. As noted above, this printed at 85, the lowest since August 2009, with the October production outlook indicator at -56 on estimates of a -50 print. Hardly inspiring. Then investors will turn to Canada, with the BoC's meeting. All of the analysts questioned by Bloomberg expect rates to be unchanged at 1.00%. Indeed, except for jobs data, all of the economic indicators published in October showed rather satisfactory trends. Of course, the accompanying press release should be closely scrutinised. Nevertheless, status quo when the vast majority of G10 central banks are heading back toward ultra-accommodating monetary policy, by cutting rates for some (such as the RBA recently) or bolstering their unconventional policies (lately the Fed and BoJ, perhaps the BoE soon), could help slow the rise of the USD/CAD as the exchange rate is nearing the symbolic level of parity. In the US, the calendar is almost empty, with just the opening of the US Treasury's quarterly refinancing programme. The week should really get going tomorrow with new housing sales and the FOMC. For the rest of the overnight recap, here is DB's Jim Reid: Asian markets are trading mostly weaker led by losses on the Shanghai Composite (-0.6%) and KOSPI (-0.3%). Volumes are generally low with Hong Kong closed for a public holiday. The Nikkei (+0.1%) is outperforming the rest of the region after Japan’s economy minister continued to call on the BoJ to increase monetary stimulus to achieve its inflation target, which helped the USDJPY reach 80 in overnight trading for the first time since July. Also weighing on sentiment was Moody’s overnight downgrade of five Spanish regions (Andalucia, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalunya, and Murcia) citing deteriorating liquidity positions. Recapping yesterday’s markets, the S&P500 posted an impressive 0.75% rally in the final hour of trading to grind out a marginal gain (+0.04%) for the day. A late-day surge in hardware makers helped technology stocks close up 1.1%, impressive on a day when 8 out of 10 industry sectors closed in the red. Before that, the S&P500 traded all the way down to 1422.1 (or -0.77%) which marked the lowest intra-day level since 6th September as Caterpillar’s pre-open earnings/guidance weighed on broader markets. The equipment maker posted earnings 1.7% above consensus but disappointed on the revenue side (1.8% below). The company also revised 2012 and 2013 revenue guidance downwards reflecting a lower customer backlog (down 18% yoy). More broadly, it was a better day for earnings yesterday with an EPS beat:miss ratio of 80:20 and revenue beat:miss ratio of 60:40, albeit with only ten S&P500 companies reporting. Apple broke a 3-day slide to close up 3.97% (adding US$23bn in market cap, equivalent to half the market cap of Facebook) in its largest one day gain since May after some upbeat reports ahead of the company’s expected iPad-mini launch today. Earlier in Europe, equities started the day on the front foot following Rajoy’s Peoples Party’s election victory on Sunday, but markets turned south following the Caterpillar result. The Stoxx600 ended 0.4% weaker, at the day’s lows, while in the credit space both the Xover (+4bps) and Europe Main (+1.5bps) closed wider. DB’s Europe economist Gilles Moec thinks that with two key elections out of the way, and a nationalist push likely in the Catalonian elections on Nov25th, it makes less sense for Rajoy to hold out now. The most likely forums for requesting an MoU are probably the ECOFIN meeting on 12th November or at the European Council meeting on 22nd November. Outside of the Spanish elections, it was relatively quiet in Europe. Reuters reported that German officials are studying a plan for Greece to buyback or reprofile its debt. Greek finance minister said that Greece had to “run fast” over the next few days to agree the remaining issues with the troika, telling parliament that “We will go hungry if we do not get the next instalment” (Ekathimerini). A Der Spiegel article noted the growing divide between Merkel and Hollande which was borne out of differences in opinion over banking supervision and control of over national budgets. Looking at the day ahead, the data docket remains fairly light with Eurozone consumer confidence and French business confidence readings the main highlights. In the US, the focus will remain on corporate earnings with 30 S&P500 companies reporting. Corporate bellwethers UPS and 3M report pre-market while Facebook’s results are due after US market close. Apple is expected to launch its iPad-mini at 10am Pacific time. Where do I queue.....?
THE Bank of China's net profit in the first half grew a less-than-expected 7.6 percent year on year as it was hit by its Hong Kong operations' exposure to the Lehman Brothers minibonds debacle and on weaker net interest margin.
HONG KONG (Reuters) - In Macau, three murders in the past two weeks have raised fears that violent crime, for years a rarity in the world's gambling capital, is growing more common at the same time as the island's casino operators are struggling with slower growth.
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong was lashed by gales on Monday as typhoon Vicente moved towards the financial hub, sending office workers home early and prompting the local observatory to raise the No. 8 tropical cyclone warning signal, the third highest classification.
Overseas: Japan -1.86%;. Hong Kong -2.99%. China -1.26%. India -1.60%. London -1.73%. Paris -1.97%. Frankfurt -1.61%.
Overseas: Japan -1.86%;. Hong Kong -2.99%. China -1.26%. India -1.60%. London -1.73%. Paris -1.97%. Frankfurt -1.61%. Post your comment!
Asian stocks get battered as eurozone fears once again pervade the markets. Japan -1.9% to 8508. Hong Kong -2.6% to 19136. China -1.2% to 2143. India -1.1% to 16976. Australia -1.7% to 4129.
Asian stocks get battered as eurozone fears once again pervade the markets. Japan -1.9% to 8508. Hong Kong -2.6% to 19136. China -1.2% to 2143. India -1.1% to 16976. Australia -1.7% to 4129. 2 comments!