Британии предстоит жесткий выход из Евросоюза, и банковскому сектору Европы необходимо как следует подготовиться к этой процедуре.
Британии предстоит "жесткий" выход из Евросоюза, и банковскому сектору Европы необходимо как следует подготовиться к этой процедуре.
Экономика Германии в I квартале года прибавила 0,6% относительно предыдущих трех месяцев. Темпы экономического роста стали максимальными за год за счет оживления в сферах экспорта и строительства, увеличения потребительских расходов и капиталовложения бизнеса. Об этом свидетельствуют окончательные данные Федерального статистического агентства Германии. В годовом выражении рост ВВП страны в первом квартале составил 2,9%. Бундесбанк ожидает сохранения высоких темпов экономического роста Германии в… ЧИТАТЬ ДАЛЕЕ: http://ru.euronews.com/2017/05/23/germany-s-economy-continues-to-steam-ahead euronews: самый популярный новостной канал в Европе. Подписывайтесь! http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=euronewsru euronews доступен на 13 языках: https://www.youtube.com/user/euronewsnetwork/channels На русском: Сайт: http://ru.euronews.com Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/euronews Twitter: http://twitter.com/euronewsru Google+: https://plus.google.com/u/0/b/101036888397116664208/100240575545901894719/posts?pageId=101036888397116664208 VKontakte: http://vk.com/ru.euronews
S&P futures rose alongside European stocks as Asian shares posted modest declines. The euro set a new six-month high and European bourses rose as PMI data from Germany and France signaled that the ECB will have to tighten soon as Europe's recovery remains on track, with the German Ifo business confidence printing at the highest level on record, and hinting at a GDP print in the 5% range. Oil declined after the Trump budget proposal suggested selling half the crude held in the US strategic petroleum reserve. Strong economic survey data across the Eurozone supported EU bourses, despite a cautious start to trade after last night's deadly terror attack in the UK. Alongside strong headline numbers, one of the most eye-catching details in the data was the biggest manufacturing sector job growth reading in the survey's 20-year-history and overall employment gains were the second best in a decade. "It's a very good result and it's broad based. We've got a good pace of growth here. The fact we have maintained this high level in May is great news for second quarter GDP," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit." Just like in the US, tech companies helped propell the Stoxx Europe 600 Index higher after Nokia Oyj settled a litigation with Apple. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose a third day, the pound pared declines and gilts were steady after the Manchester bombing. The dollar declined after the Washington Post reported Donald Trump asked intelligence chiefs to publicly deny collusion between his campaign and Russia, a potentially impeachable offense. The U.S. president in March asked Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats and NSA Director Michael Rogers to publicly deny existence of any collusion between his campaign and the Russian government, the Washington Post reported, citing unidentified current and former officials. Oil dropped, halting a four-day rising streak that took the price of crude above $51 a barrel. It wasn't just the German IFO surge: a euro-area Purchasing Managers’ Index showed manufacturing in the bloc expanded at the fastest pace in more than six years, bolstering the case for an ECB rate hike and further capital flows out of the US and into Europe as political wrangling in Washington rumbles on, diverting attention from President Trump’s spending and tax plans. “Europe’s growth numbers aren’t knocking the skin off the ball, but they are less volatile and it’s doing relatively well compared to the U.S., U.K. and Japan,” said Bill Blain, head of capital markets at London-based Mint Partners. “More than a few global investors have lost faith in the U.S. recovery and Trump jump.” There was some bad news: signs that euro zone authorities and the International Monetary Fund remain some way apart on Greece's debt problems combined with the strong data to nag at bond markets. Greece's short-dated government bond yields rose sharply as the IMF's chief negotiator stuck to its stance that there needs to be more realism on what Athens can deliver. The prospect of the ECB scaling down its multi trillion euro stimulus program meanwhile nudged up yields on German Bunds DE10YT=TWEB and other higher-rated government debt. "The risk-off environment is already erased and we are back to the levels we saw yesterday on the back of the very bright economic outlook," said DZ Bank analyst Rene Abrecht. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.2 percent in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index added 0.1 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 climbed 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge rose 0.5 percent on Monday. The selloff in Brazilian assets resumed on Monday. The NEXT Funds Ibovespa Linked Exchange Traded Fund, an equity ETF that tracks Brazil’s benchmark index, slumped 3.9 percent in Tokyo trading Tuesday. Asian trading had seen a modest pull back in risk appetite with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares not including Japan dropping back from near two-year highs. Tokyo's Nikkei closed down 0.3 percent as Japanese manufacturing activity expanded at the slowest pace in six months in May, while trading in China was choppy on concerns over a regulatory crackdown on risky lending practices. Japan’s Topix dropped 0.2 percent after swinging between gains and losses. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.3 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.1 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.5 percent. The dollar remained in the doldrums too. It dipped to a 6-1/2-month low against a basket of other major currencies as low 10-year U.S. Treasury yields continued to underscore fading expectations for fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration. Of note, today the White House will present Trump's first full budget plan to lawmakers on Tuesday. Its proposals include a $3.6 trillion cut in government spending over 10 years, balancing the budget by the end of the decade. Congress holds the federal purse strings and often ignores presidential budgets, which are proposals and may not take effect in its current form. But the plan, which advocated selling half of strategic U.S. oil reserves, weighed on crude futures according to Reuters, offsetting optimism over expectations that other major oil producers would agree to extend supply curbs this week. Brent retreated 0.8 percent to$53.44 a barrel. U.S. crude futures gave up all their earlier gains to edge lower to $50.71, after hitting their highest level in more than a month earlier in the session. The weaker dollar, meanwhile, lifted gold slightly. Spot gold climbed 0.1 percent to $1,261.56 an ounce in its third straight session of gains. This afternoon sees US new home sales and the much-ignored Markit manufacturing PMI. Neither is expected to be much-changed from last month. The big event for the US market is the FOMC Minutes tomorrow. "The big question for markets is how fast investors get back to the business of hunting carry" according to SocGen's Kit Juckes. "I am watching USD/BRL which has stabilised after last week's spike, and if this starts to edge down again while US equities move towards new highs, that would increase the likelihood of a June Fed rate hike rate, while also supporting all the higher-yielding currencies. That does, in G10FX, lead to NZD/JPY." Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk Strong PMI and IFO surveys across the Eurozone have supported EU bourses despite a cautious start to trade following last night terror attack in the UK WTI and Brent crude futures enter the North American crossover in negative territory as concerns continue to mount regarding the factions within the cartel and whether all players are on board with output curbs Looking ahead, highlights include Fed's Kashkari, Harker and ECB's Coeure Global Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,396.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 392.14 MXAP down 0.2% to 151.94 MXAPJ down 0.1% to 496.39 Nikkei down 0.3% to 19,613.28 Topix down 0.2% to 1,565.22 Hang Seng Index up 0.05% to 25,403.15 Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,061.95 Sensex down 0.3% to 30,494.69 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5,760.19 Kospi up 0.3% to 2,311.74 German 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 0.413% Euro up 0.2% to 1.1259 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.7% to $53.47/bbl Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 1.845% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 1.63% Brent Futures down 0.7% to $53.47/bbl Gold spot down little changed at $1,260.08 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 96.84 Top Headline News Britain is reeling from last night’s terror attack that killed 22 people at a concert by U.S. pop star Ariana Grande in the northern city of Manchester OPEC and its allies were poised to continue their production cuts for another nine months after Iraq backed an extension, removing one of the last remaining obstacles to an agreement President Donald Trump would dramatically reduce the U.S. government’s role in society with $3.6 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10 years in a budget plan that shrinks the safety net for the poor, recent college graduates and farmers Noble Group Ltd.’s crisis deepened after S&P Global Ratings flagged a risk of default for the commodity trader within a year, triggering a rout in the company’s shares before they were suspended in Singapore ahead of a company statement Nokia Oyj, the latest technology company to do battle with Apple Inc. over patents, secured a licensing agreement that is likely to boost its revenue in an underdog victory that sent the Finnish company’s shares soaring Details of the closed-door discussion that Federal Reserve officials held during their most recent policy gathering are expected to keep the odds of a June interest-rate increase high Asia equity markets traded with a cautious tone amid terror fears following the explosion in Manchester, UK where 19 people were confirmed dead and over 50 others injured, which police are treating as a terrorist attack. This dampened the risk tone in ASX 200 (-0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.3%), although markets in Australia attempted to recover as gains in commodities-related sectors provided support. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) were mixed with downside stemmed after the PBoC conducted a firm liquidity injection of CNY 140bIn. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with only mild upside observed despite the cautious risk tone observed in equities, while the enhanced liquidity auction also saw a muted reaction and failed to drive any significant demand. Top Asian News China Boosts Zinc Imports to 13-Month High on Local Shortage Noble Group ‘Fighting for Its Life’ as S&P Sees Default Risk Sun Pharma Weighs on Indian Drugmakers as U.S. Competition Bites Fortescue CEO Says Iron-Ore Price May Need to Fall More: FT Tongda Didn’t Get Oppo’s R11 Model Order, Tongda CFO Says China Spins a Worldwide Web of Food From Mozambique to Missouri In European markets, Strong PMI and IFO surveys across the Eurozone have supported EU bourses this morning to trade risk-on, following stellar readings from France and Germany in particular, where the Mfg. figure rose to 59.4, ahead of the exp. 58. Subsequently, offsetting the slip in crude oil futures which stemmed from comments by the Kuwait Oil Minister who stated that not everyone is on board with 9-month extension. This is somewhat of a contrast to rhetoric from the Saudi Energy Minister, who kept alive hopes by stating that there is no objection to a 9-month deal. Of note, equities have pulled off highs amid reports that South Korea have fired warning shots following an unidentified object flying south from North Korea. In credit markets, government bonds have reversed their in FTQ amid the risk on sentiment. Notable underperformance observed in the Greek short end after reports that Greece's creditors failed to reach an agreement on Greek debt measures and held off releasing new funds to Greece. Additionally, Belgium have now opened books for their EUR 20yr with reports noting that demand has exceeded EUR 8.85b1n. Elsewhere, supply from the UK and Germany has been well digested. Top European News German Upswing Takes Business Sentiment to Highest Since 1991 Greek Deal on Debt Relief Founders as Talks Stretch to June U.K. Began New Fiscal Year With Higher-Than-Forecast Borrowing In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped for a third day, falling 0.1 percent to head for the lowest level since Nov. 4. The yen rose 0.2 percent to 111.13 per dollar. The pound was little changed at $1.2996 after weakening as much as 0.4 percent. The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.1258. Across FX markets, the news of the terror attack in Manchester has dominated the headlines, which prompted some mild GBP selling to trip below 1.30, although, bids layered in 1.2950 curbed further downside. EUR still feeling the upward momentum, now helped by the strong Eurozone PMI readings. NZD remains on the front foot off the back of optimistic expectations from the budget later this week. The local press have been shedding a positive light on some of the economy friendly measure. We have the Fonterra dairy auction later today, so this may test the NZD resolve which sees the spot rate above 0.7000 and AUD/NZD back in the mid 1.0600's. As can be said of a number of pairings in the majors, there look to be over-extensions of note, and some will be justified in attributing this to USD/JPY given the marginal price action see in Treasury yields. Sub 111.00 looks to be running into demand as we cannot ignore the prospect of a Fed rate hike in June. As we have spoken of in recent weeks, the market is also looking at the longer term perspective of the US rate path, but in light of this, the data has faded at best, so we expect some consolidation in the USD at these levels as we await more data. In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures enter the North American crossover in negative territory as concerns continue to mount regarding the factions within the cartel and whether all players are on board with output curbs. More specifically, the Kuwait Oil Minister says that not everyone has agreed to a 9-month output extension but is agreed on a 6-month extension, while adding that deeper cuts are not being discussed. Crude oil prices also took a hit after the Chinese customs highlighted that China's crude imports from Russia and Saudi Arabia fell 1.9% and 3.9% respectively in April. In metals markets, gold prices are mildly higher due to a weaker USD and safe-haven flows in the wake of the Manchester Arena explosion, while copper prices failed to maintain traction as risk sentiment in the region turned cautious. Looking at the day ahead, in the US we’ll get the flash May PMIs along with April new home sales and May Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Away from the data, the Fed’s Kashkari is scheduled to speak again at two separate events while the Fed’s Harker speaks at 5pm ET. The other big focus for today will be the Trump’s administration budget request where we are expecting to get alot more details on the back of the skinny budget released back in March and some of the leaks this morning. US event calendar 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53, prior 52.8; Services PMI, est. 53.3, prior 53.1; Composite PMI, prior 53.2 10am: New Home Sales, est. 610,000, prior 621,000; MoM, est. -1.77%, prior 5.8% 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 15, prior 20 9am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks with Reporters in Minneapolis 3pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Minneapolis 5pm: Fed’s Harker Speaks in New York DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Awful news this morning for those of us in the UK after a suspected terrorist attack at a concert in Manchester late last night which has taken the lives of 19 people and left another 50 injured. If confirmed as a terrorist attack it will be the largest such atrocity on these shores since the 2005 London bombings. Safe haven assets are a little stronger this morning with 10y Treasury yields -1.7bps and Gold +0.15%. Sterling (-0.10%) is slightly weaker. The Nikkei (-0.12%) is a touch softer but most other markets in Asia are flat to slightly higher. Indeed the ASX is +0.03% while the Hang Seng (+0.30%), Shanghai Comp (+0.18%) and Kospi (+0.92%) are firmer. Also worth highlighting overnight is the news that S&P had moved to place Brazil’s sovereign BB rating on credit watch negative. Brazilian assets had resumed their selloff yesterday with the Bovespa down -1.54%, Brazilian Real weakening -0.38% and local currency bond yields 30bps higher. Also Bloomberg is reporting that President Trump is to announce $3.6tn in tax cuts over the next 10 years at today’s much anticipated budget plan. The proposal will supposedly claim to balance the budget within a decade. As we’ve noted before however it appears that the Republican-led Congress is likely to largely ignore the proposal. Today's main market story outside of the UK attack are the global flash PMIs. The strong YTD performance in equities has matched the strong recent performance of global PMIs so on this measure the rally is not out of line with the data. Of the main regions, China has perhaps seen the weakest PMI readings and it's notable that whilst US/European equities are up around 10-25% YTD, Chinese equities are slightly down. With this in mind today's flash PMIs from around the globe will give us an early sign to whether momentum is continuing at an elevated pace. In Europe the expectations are for broadly unchanged numbers for services and manufacturing with a 55 or 56 handle. In the US also broadly unchanged with a 53 handle for both. A sizeable move in either direction around this consensus would likely drive equities over the next few weeks. We’ll actually have to wait until next week to receive China’s PMIs but this morning Japan released its manufacturing PMI which came in at 52.0 for May versus 52.7 in April. This comes after market sentiment continues to improve after the US political shocks of last week. The S&P 500 (+0.52%) rose for the third consecutive session yesterday and is now up 1.76% from last week’s intraday lows and also back to within half of a percent of the all time high mark again. The Dow (+0.43%), Nasdaq (+0.82%) and Russell 2000 (+0.72%) indices also had a decent session despite there not really being much news. In fact the lack of any Trump-related headlines was probably a positive for sentiment although some of the deals struck with Saudi Arabia over the weekend were seen as a boost for markets. The VIX also plunged over 9% and closed back below its YTD average at 10.93. Markets in Europe were a bit more benign (Stoxx 600 -0.09%) with banks down for the fourth time in five days. Helping sentiment at the margin were higher Oil prices with WTI Oil (+0.91%) closing above $51/bbl for the first time since April 18th. This comes ahead of Thursday’s OPEC meeting where expectations are seemingly high for an extension to the supply cut agreement. In fact the rest of the commodity complex was generally firmer with Gold (+0.37%), Iron Ore (+0.80%), Copper (+0.37%) and Zinc (+0.67%) all edging up. The one asset which is struggling to recover from the Trump-inspired selloff from last week is the US Dollar (-0.16%) which fell for the 7th time in the last 8 sessions yesterday. That wasn’t helped by the strong day for the Euro though (+0.28%) which bounced after German Chancellor Merkel called the single currency “too weak” (albeit in the context of Germany’s trade surplus). As a longer term aside on the current and future financing of government debt, yesterday the UK Conservative Party seemed to take a care policy U-turn on their campaign trail. The reforms announced in their manifesto last week basically meant that more people would have to use their home to fund future elderly care down to their last £100,000. However the backlash led to remarks from PM Mrs May yesterday that they would consult on having a maximum amount that any person would be forced to pay. This comes only a couple of months after the same government announced a U-turn on taxing self employees people slightly more to be closer to other employees in the economy. This follows the previous chancellor George Osborne reversing a cut in tax credits (announced in 2015) for millions of low-paid families after immense and very public criticism. With the UK not seeing a budget surplus since 2001 (only very briefly after many prior years of big deficits) and with the Conservative Party last week delaying a return to a balanced budget to 2025 in their manifesto one wonders how budgets will ever balance again when any tax increases or welfare cuts are very quickly reversed when shown as unpopular. This is not a UK only phenomenon (well done Germany though) but this recent activity in the UK surely is reflective of a wider global issue of how to collect more in tax than you spend, especially as we get older, all have a vote and the working age population shrinks or growth stalls across the developed world. It's one of the reasons we think that helicopter money will eventually be prevalent. Governments can't cut deficits too much without major backlash. In the end it'll be easier to monetise them. On that note, following another set of marathon talks yesterday negotiations between Greece’s creditors failed to yield a deal on debt relief at last night’s Eurogroup meeting. The IMF and Germany were supposedly in disagreement over the amount of debt relief required to assure economic stability in Greece. Eurogroup Chair Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that it is still a priority to bring the IMF on board and that work will continue in the coming weeks with the hope that a deal can be concluded on June 15th at the next scheduled meeting for Eurogroup ministers. As a reminder Greece faces around €7bn of debt maturities in July. Onto credit, the latest ECB CSPP numbers were out yesterday and I was surprised to see the average daily corporate purchases at €401mn last week, notably above the average daily run rate of €365mn since the program started. So back in April and early May it looked like a broadly equal CSPP/PSPP split but last week's numbers gives us the possibility that CSPP hasn't been tapered as much after all. Just wrapping up the remaining newsflow yesterday, with no significant data out there was a bit of focus on the Fedspeak yesterday. The Dallas Fed’s Kaplan said that he still favoured two more rate hikes this year and a balance sheet reduction to start later this year. On inflation Kaplan said that “recent readings are likely not indicative of a weakening trend...and as slack continues to be removed from the labour market, headline inflation should reach, or exceed, the Fed’s 2% longer-run objective in the medium term”. Over at the ECB the Bundesbank’s Weidmann reiterated that inflation pressures are currently “muted” but that they should increase “with the continued economic upswing and gradual decline in unemployment in the Euro area”. Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got a fairly busy diary to get through in Europe this morning. Shortly after this hits your email we’ll get the final revisions to Q1 GDP in Germany (no change to the +0.6% qoq flash print expected) as well as details around the growth drivers. Shortly after that we get May confidence indicators out of France before all eyes turn to those flash May PMIs. Later on this morning we’ll get the May IFO survey out of Germany and public sector net borrowing data in the UK for April. This afternoon in the US we’ll also get the flash May PMIs along with April new home sales and May Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Away from the data, the Fed’s Kashkari is scheduled to speak again at two separate events (2pm BST and 8pm BST) while the Fed’s Harker speaks at 10pm BST. The ECB’s Coeure speaks this afternoon too. The other big focus for today will be the Trump’s administration budget request where we are expecting to get alot more details on the back of the skinny budget released back in March and some of the leaks this morning.
Москва, 23 мая - "Вести.Экономика". Экономика Германии в I квартале 2017 г. выросла на 0,6% по сравнению с предыдущим кварталом, темпы роста стали максимальными за год, свидетельствуют окончательные данные Федерального статистического агентства ФРГ (Destatis).
Экономика Германии в I квартале 2017 г. выросла на 0,6% по сравнению с предыдущим кварталом, темпы роста стали максимальными за год, свидетельствуют окончательные данные Федерального статистического агентства ФРГ (Destatis).
Сильный рост в Германии, по-видимому, продолжится весной, говорится в сообщении Бундесбанка в ежемесячном докладе в понедельник. В первом квартале экономика выросла на 0,6% после роста на 0,4% в четвертом квартале. Банк сказал, что строительный сектор будет продолжать процветать, а сектор услуг, как ожидается, продолжит расширяться. Спрос со стороны как внутренних, так и внешних рынков должен поддержать промышленность, сказал центральный банк. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
With the Fed contemplating whether to hike again next month and start "normalizing " its balance sheet before the end of 2017, the two other major central banks are facing far bigger problems. * * * Two months after the BOJ quietly started tapering its QE program, when it also hinted it may purchase 18% less bonds than planned... ... Governor Haruhiko Kuroda admitted last week that the Bank of Japan’s bond holdings are currently growing at an annualized pace of only ¥60 trillion ($527 billion), 25% below the bottom-end of its policy range, and confirming that without making any formal announcement, the BOJ has quietly followed the ECB in aggressively tapering its bond buying program. Under questioning from opposition party lawmaker Seiji Maehara, who noted that the pace of bond accumulation by the BOJ had slowed, Kuroda said the trend could continue, without elaborating. He noted that the central bank’s target is to control interest rates rather than the amount of bond purchases. "This development signals to me that they are going with rates without talking about a quantitative target," said Atsushi Takeda, an economist at Itochu Corp. in Tokyo. "That will be better when they think about an exit.” While the BOJ's purchase slowdown has been visible for months in data released by the central bank, Kuroda’s confirmation of this reality in parliament last Wednesday marks a stark change. As Bloomberg notes, until now he’d struggled to emphasize that the annual pace could vary from an indicative 80 trillion yen, depending on the state of the economy and financial markets. He now appears to have thrown in the towel. Meanwhile, investors are watching for any hint of tightening in monetary policy amid speculation that the central bank’s bond purchase regime is unsustainable and as consumer prices in Japan are expected to pick up later this year. The most likely way for the BOJ to begin tightening would be scrapping the 80 trillion yen guideline altogether, especially since the central bank is no longer following it. "The Bank of Japan appears to be ramping up its efforts to improve communication with the market to lay the groundwork for its next move - tapering," Bloomberg Intelligence economist Yuki Masujima wrote in a report on Kuroda’s remarks. What was surprising to markets is that Kuroda's unexpectedly hawkish comments had virtually no impact on the market last week; if anything they led to an even weaker Yen, something which on the surface would seem paradoxical; however it was reassuring for the BOJ and could boost arguments in favor of dropping the 80 trillion yen reference point. Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg in April, Kuroda said the BOJ would keep as a reference point the aim of increasing its holdings of government bonds at a pace of around 80 trillion yen per year. After four years of aggressive monetary stimulus, and with his term set to end in April 2018, Kuroda is still far from his goals while his Federal Reserve counterpart Janet Yellen is taking rates higher and policy makers in Europe debate tapering. These three central banks have all run up huge balance sheets since the financial crisis after buying bonds and other assets. In an unexpected admission that even central banks are subject to simple math, Kuroda also revealed some of the BOJ’s modeling on balance sheet risks, indicating that a BOJ simulation found that a 100bps increase in long-term yields could mean a valuation loss of ¥23 trillion on its bond holdings, equivalent to a DV01 of roughly a $2 billion. * * * And while the the BOJ is quietly tightening ahead of an inevitable official taper which it will have to commence over the next year as it runs out of monetizable private bonds to purchase, the ECB finds itself in a far worse situation as it may have just 4 months before it runs out of eligible German bonds to purchase. According to analyst calculations based on ECB bond-buying data published at the start of May, the European Central Bank bought roughly 400 million euros fewer bonds in Germany in April than its rules allow. According to ABN Amro's Kim Liu, in April the ECB deviated from the capital key in Germany by around 400 million euros when excluding corporate and covered bond purchases and adjusting for Greece. The shortfall raises questions about how close the ECB is to hitting its bond-buying limits in Germany, the euro zone's benchmark issuer and (at least until now) the deepest and biggest source of bonds under the ECB's QE program which is currently scheduled to run until the end of 2017. "It was by far the largest deviation, at least for Germany, and for me suggests that on top of the political stress and smoothing of purchases, there are scarcity constraints for the Bundesbank," said Pictet Wealth Management senior economist Frederik Ducrozet, quoted by Reuters. "What it means is that the ECB has to be very cautious with its exit and if they don't taper within less than six months (of ending the programme) something might have to give." Here's why: ECB asset purchases are based on the so-called capital key, meaning the central bank buys a country's bonds in line with the size of its economy, making Germany the biggest source for the scheme. According to Barclays, if the ECB maintains its buying program as is, it will hit its mandated, 33% ceiling on German Bund holdings as soon as October, or just over 4 months from now. Furthermore, according to calculations shown previously, based on ECB data in just six months the average maturity of monthly German debt purchases by the ECB has dropped to under five years from more than 10. That suggests that a shortage of longer-dated eligible debt is forcing the Bundesbank, which buys securities on behalf of the ECB, to take advantage of recent rule tweaks to buy more shorter-dated bonds. Reuters adds that while that shift was expected after last December's change allowing the ECB to buy bonds yielding less than the -0.40% depo rate, "the speed at which the Bundesbank put that to use has taken markets by surprise." According to ABN's Liu, "this means that the average maturity of monthly German purchases remains much lower than those of other countries and that the Bundesbank continuously is forced to buy short-dated bonds with yields that are below the ECB's deposit rate." Germany is not the first country whose bonds are becoming scarce: the ECB has already deviated from the capital key in Ireland and Portugal, where it is running out of bonds to buy. However, the latter two countries are tiny in terms of supply compared to the budgeted monthly purchases from Germany. The German bond scarcity shows that the ECB would struggle to extend the scheme without further changes to its own bond-buying rules, and one option is simply to raise the 33% self-imposed ceiling, although that would likely require a substantial political intervention, and it would also make the European bond market even more illiquid as the ECB ends up owning half of German bonds. * * * For now, the ECB has been lucky: the economic situation in Europe has been improving, with inflation posting a modest pick up, and all signs suggesting that Mario Draghi will be able to taper - not because he wants to but because he has to. Last Monday, ECB board member Yves Mersch said the ECB was close to replacing its negative view on whether the euro zone economy would reach growth targets with a neutral one, providing yet another justification to reducing its unsustainable bond purchases. As a reminder, in December the ECB already tapered its monthly purchases by €20 billion to €60 billion in April, while money markets price in roughly a 70 percent chance of a rate hike in early 2018. "The ECB can always get around its rules, it has the flexibility on whether to buy central government or local government or agency debt to fulfill its quotas," said Marchel Alexandrovich, senior European economist at Jefferies. "But the longer QE goes on, the more the ECB will have to think about changing the rules again ... And the issue now is the willingness to carry on with QE." Indeed, and as for European false dawns, just ask Jean-Claude Trichet and the infamous rate hike of 2011 which launched the most serious leg of the European sovereign debt crisis. Should Europe's economy turn south again and the central bank be forced to keep or even boost its QE, Mario Draghi bank may suddenly find itself in very big trouble. That, or simply do what the BOJ has been doing for years, and start buying ETFs and single stocks. One final point: even if all goes according to plan, recall that the only reason stocks are at all time highs, is due to the $250 bilion per month, or $1+ trillion YTD - an all time high - in central bank purchases; purchases which are only thanks to the ECB and BOJ. With both banks now having no choice but to trim their asset monetizations, the outlook for risk assets is anything but good.
from Norbert Häring In its April monthly report, Deutsche Bundesbank explains that banks create money ex-nihilo and rejects the proposal of 100%-money. The full English version is now online. The arguments employed to discredit 100%-money are a mix of sophistry and misleading or false statements. With some delay, Bundesbank has joined the Bank of England […]
from Norbert Häring In the April-edition of their monthly report, the Bundesbank has belatedly joined the Bank of England in explicitly stating that the treatment of banks and money creation in most textbooks is wrong: banks are not intermediaries; they create money ex-nihilo. This helps the Bundesbank to reject criticism that central banks are currently […]
It appears the chairmen of UBS have plenty to say on Europe.Following former UBS chairman Peter Kurer's comments that "to the elites, the EU is a means to get rich quickly and export their problems," UBS current chairman Axel Weber has warned bankers that Europe is not "out of the woods" from its political risks even after Emmanuel Macron’s reassuring victory in the French presidential election. Peter Kurer recently remarked on the end of the Euro... Following an unfortunate combination of wrong decisions at the top and the uncontrolled flourishing of a self-serving bureaucracy, the union has moved in a direction where it has become a prisoner of its own constructed reality. The EU was a great idea but it has been ridden to death. Back in 1992, almost half of Swiss voted to join the European Economic Area, including the traveller. If there was a vote today on joining the union, the latest polls say just 15 per cent would vote yes. The EU had its chances. It squandered them, and maybe it will come to an end in the foreseeable future under the weight of its burdens: La messa è finita, andate in pace. And over the weekend speaking in Tokyo, as The FT reports, UBS Chairman Axel Weber said that political risk in Europe remained “actually quite high” even though “we’ve seen the centre hold in France” with Macron’s victory over far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, and even though all the signs were that the centre will also hold in the upcoming German location elections. “That doesn’t mean Europe is out of the woods,” he told the International Institute of Finance’s spring meeting. “There is still Italy where it is very unclear that the centre will hold. And there is still Greece.” He continued: “Where you find some bright side….there are (also) some downside risks that are not really priced into the market but could derail (Europe).” “Brexit is a time bomb… and the countdown is on. It will be two years from now,” Mr Weber said. He added that “if the British really do leave the customs union and single market there could be a lot of volatility which could impact on the global economy”. This is not the first time Weber has dared to comment against the global elites' party-line... Speaking on the sidelines of their annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank last year, Weber warned that monetary intervention is causing international spillovers and major disturbances in global markets. "They (central banks) have taken on massive interventions in the market, you could almost say that central banks are now the central counterparties in many markets. They are the ultimate buyer," "Investors have been driven into investments where they have very little capability for dealing with what is on their plate and I think that is a sure reminder of where we were in a different asset class in 2007," he said. "So I think the central bankers need to be very careful that they do not continue to produce disturbances in the markets, which they acknowledge - it's a known side effect - but the perception that the underlying impact of monetary policy outweighs the potential side effect in my view is starting to be wrong," he added. Since the global financial crash of 2008, central bank policy has focused on buying up bonds in large quantities and cutting interest rates to record lows. The Federal Reserve has since looked to unwind its own policy which focused on the Treasury market and the yield curve, but the Bank of Japan and the ECB's large-scale bond-buying programs continue. "I don't think a single trader can tell you what the appropriate price of an asset he buys is, if you take out all this central bank intervention," Weber warned, adding that it often meant investors were making bad choices with where to put their money. UBS Chairman Axel Weber is a former policymaker at The ECB and was the president of Germany's Bundesbank.
How money is created Deutsche Bundesbank Frankfurt am Main | 25.04.2017 How money is created Since the Eurosystem launched its accommodative non-standard monetary policy measures, the central bank reserves of commercial banks in the euro area have gone up sharply, more than seven-fold within a period of not quite ten years. At the same… Read More The post How money is created appeared first on The Big Picture.
Submitted by Ronan Manly, Bullionstar.com In February 2017 while preparing for a presentation in Gothenburg about central bank gold, I emailed Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, enquiring whether the Riksbank physically audits Sweden’s gold and whether it would provide me with a gold bar weight list of Sweden’s gold reserves (gold bar holdings). The Swedish official gold reserves are significant and amount to 125.7 tonnes, making the Swedish nation the world’s 28th largest official gold holder. Before looking at the questions put to the Riksbank and the Riksbank’s responses, some background information is useful. Sweden’s central bank, Sveriges Riksbank aka Riksbanken or Riksbank, has the distinction of being the world’s oldest central bank (founded in 1668). The bank is responsible for the administration of Swedish monetary policy and the issuance of the Swedish currency, the Krona. Since Sweden is a member of the EU, the Riksbank is a member of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), but since Sweden does not use the Euro, the Riksbank is not a central bank member of the European Central Bank (ECB). Therefore the Riksbank has a degree of independence that ECB member central banks lack, but still finds itself under the umbrella of the ESCB. Since it issues its own currency, the Riksbank is responsible for the management of the Swedish Krona exchange rate against other currencies, a task which should be borne in mind while reading the below. On 28 October 2013, the Riksbank for the first time revealed the storage locations of its gold reserves via publication of the following list of five storage locations (four of these locations are outside Sweden) and the percentage and gold tonnage stored at each location: Bank of England 61.4 tonnes (48.8%) Bank of Canada 33.2 tonnes (26.4%) Federal Reserve Bank 13.2 tonnes (10.5%) Swiss National Bank 2.8 tonnes (2.2%) Sveriges Riksbank 15.1 tonnes (12.0%) The storage locations of Sweden’s official Gold Reserves: Total 125.7 tonnes Nearly half of Sweden’s gold is stored at the Bank of England in London. Another quarter of the Swedish gold is supposedly stored with the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada’s gold vault was located under it’s headquarters building on Wellington Street in Ottawa. However, this Bank of Canada building has undergone a complete renovation and has been completely empty for a number of years, so wherever Sweden’s gold is in Ottawa, it has not been in the Bank of Canada’s gold vault for the last number of years. Three other central banks claim to hold gold with the Bank of Canada. Thes are the central banks of Switzerland, the Netherlands and Belgium. The Swedish gold in Canada (along with gold holdings owned by the Swiss, Dutch and Belgians) could, however, have been moved to the Royal Canadian Mint’s vault which is also in Ottawa. Bank of Canada staff are now moving back into the Wellington Street building this year. But is the Swedish (and Swiss, Dutch and Belgian) gold moving back also or does it even exist? The location of the Swedish gold in Ottawa is therefore a mystery and is something the Swedish population should be concerned about. Just over 10% of the Swedish gold is supposedly held in the famous (infamous) Manhattan gold vault of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) under the 33 Liberty building. Given the complete lack of cooperation of the FRBNY in ever answering any questions about foreign gold holdings in this vault, then good luck to Swedish citizens in trying to ascertain that gold’s whereabouts or even convincing the Riksbank to repatriate that gold. A very tiny 2% of Swedish gold is also listed as being held with the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB gold vault is in Berne under its headquarters building on Bundesplatz. The Riksbank also claims to hold 15.1 tonnes of its gold (12%) in its own storage, i.e. stored domestically in Sweden. Interestingly, on 30 October 2013, just two days after the Riksbank released details of its gold storage locations, Finland’s central bank in neighbouring Helsinki, the Bank of Finland, also released the storage locations of its 49 tonnes gold reserves in a move which looks to have been coordinated with the Riksbank. The Bank of Finland claims its 49 tonnes of gold is spread out as follows: 51% at the Bank of England, 20% at the Riksbank in Sweden, 18% at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 7% in Switzerland at the Swiss National Bank and 4% held in Finland by the Bank of Finland. This means that not only is the Riksbank supposedly storing 15.1 tonnes of Swedish gold, it also apparently is also storing 9.8 tonnes of Finland’s gold, making a grand total of 24.9 tonnes of gold stored with the Riksbank. The storage location of this 24.9 tonnes gold is unknown, but one possibility suggested by the Swedish blogger Cornucopia (Lars Wilderäng) is that this gold is being stored in the recently built Riksbank cash management building beside Stockholm’s Arlanda International Airport, a building which was completed in 2012. On its website, the Riksbank states that its 125.7 tonnes of gold “is equivalent to around 10,000 gold bars”. A rough rule of thumb is that 1 tonne of gold consists of 80 Good Delivery Bars. These Good Delivery Gold gold bars are wholesale market gold bars which, although they are variable weight bars, usually each weigh in the region of 400 troy ounces or 12.5 kilograms. Hence 125.7 tonnes is roughly equal to 125.7 * 80 bars = 10,056 bars, which explains where the Riksbank gets its 10,000 gold bar total figure from. Using Gold for Foreign Exchange Interventions On another page on its web site titled ‘Gold and Foreign Currency Reserve’, the Riksbank is surprisingly open about the uses to which it puts its gold holdings, uses such as foreign exchange interventions and emergency liquidity: “The gold and foreign currency reserve can primarily be used to provide emergency liquidity assistance to banks, to fulfil Sweden’s share of the international lending of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and to intervene on the foreign exchange market, if need be.” This is not a misprint and is not a statement that somehow only applies to the ‘foreign currency reserve’ component of the reserves, since the same web page goes on to specifically say that: “The gold can be used to fund emergency liquidity assistance or foreign exchange interventions, among other things.” Therefore, the Riksbank is conceding that at least some of its gold is actively used in central bank operations and that this gold does not merely sit in quiet unencumbered storage. On the contrary, this gold at times has additional claims and titles attached to it due to being loaned or swapped. When the Riksbank revealed its gold storage locations back in October 2013, this news was covered by a number of Swedish media outlets, one of which was the Stockholm-based financial newspaper Dagens Industri, commonly known as DI. DI’s article on the topic, published in Swedish with a title translated as “Here is the Swedish Gold“, also featured a series of questions and answers from personnel from the Riksbank asset management department. Some of these answers are worth highlighting here as they touch on the active management of the Swedish gold and also the shockingly poor auditing of the Swedish gold. In the DI article, Göran Robertsson, Deputy Head of Riksbank’s asset management department, noted that historically the Swedish gold was stored at geographically diversified locations for security reasons, but that this same geographic distribution is now primarily aimed at facilitating the rapid exchange of Swedish gold for major foreign currencies, hence the reason that nearly half of the Swedish gold is held in the Bank of England gold vaults – since the Bank of England London vaults are where gold swaps and gold loans take place. Robertsson noted that over the 2008-2009 period, 50 tonnes of gold Swedish gold located at the Bank of England was exchanged for US dollars: “London is the dominant international marketplace for gold. We used the gold 2008-2009 during the financial crisis when we switched it to the dollar we then lent to Swedish banks” One of these Riskbank gold-US Dollar swap transaction was also referenced in a 2011 World Gold Council report on gold market liquidity. This report stated that in 2008 following the Lehman collapse: “In order to be able to provide liquidity to the Scandinavian banking system, the Swedish Riksbank utilised its gold reserves by swapping some of its gold to obtain dollar liquidity before it was able to gain access to the US dollar swap facilities with the Federal Reserve.” In the October 2013 DI interview, Göran Robertsson also noted that at some point following this gold – dollar exchange, “the size of the reserve was restored“, which presumably means that the Riksbank received back 50 tonnes of gold. As to whether the restoration of the gold holdings was the exact same 50 tonnes of gold as had been previously held (the same gold bars) is not clear. Sophie Degenne, Head of the Riksbank’s asset management department, also noted that: “The main purpose of the gold and foreign exchange reserves is to use it when needed, as in the financial crisis” Auditing of the Swedish Gold On the subject of so-called transparency and auditing of the gold, Sophie Degenne said the following in the same DI interview: “Why do you reveal at which central banks the gold is located? It is a part of the Riksbank endeavours to be as transparent as we can. We have engaged in dialogue with the relevant central banks” How do you verify that the gold is really where it should be? “We have our own listings of where it is. We reconcile these against extracts that we receive once a year. From now on, we will also start with our own inspections.” Therefore, the Riksbank gold auditing procedure at that time was one of merely comparing one piece of paper to another piece of paper and in no way involved physically auditing the gold bars in any of the foreign locations. These weak audit methods of the Swedish gold were first highlighted by Liberty Silver CEO, Mikael From in Stockholm-based news daily Aftonbladet’s coverage of the Swedish gold storage locations in an article in early November 2013 titled “Questions about Sweden’s gold reserves persist“. In Aftonbladet’s article, Mikael From stated that while it was welcome that the Riksbank was at that point signalling an ambition to inspect the Swedish gold reserves, it was not clear that the Riksbank would be conducting a proper audit of the gold reserves at the time of inspection, although such a proper audit would be highly desirable. Mikael stated that without such a proper audit, and without witnessing the gold with their own eyes, the Riksbank and the Swedish State could not be certain that the Swedish gold actually existed. He also called for the Riksbank to provide information proving that the Swedish gold actually exists in its claimed storage locations. This was particulaly important due to a portion of the Swedish gold supposedly being stored at the gold vault of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NYFED), a storage location which had in the past been non-cooperative and problematic for the German Federal Court of Auditors when they tried to examine the NYFED’s storage arrangements in 2011/2012. Questions to the Swedish Riksbank – February 2017 Turning now to the questions which I posed to the Swedish Riksbank in early February 2017 about its gold reserves. I asked the Riskbank two basic and simple questions as follows: “I am undertaking research into central bank gold reserves, including the gold reserves held by the Riksbank at its 5 storage facilities. 1. Are the gold bars held by the Riksbank in its foreign storage facilities physically audited by the Riksbank (i.e. stored at Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve New York and Swiss National Bank)? In other words, does the Riksbank have a physical audit program for this gold? 2. Secondly, would the Riksbank be able to send me a gold bar weight list which shows the gold bar holdings details for the 125.7 tonnes of gold held by the Riksbank. A weight list being the industry standard list showing bar brand (refiner), serial number, gross weight, fineness, fine weight etc. A few days after I submitted my questions, the Presschef/Chief Press Officer of the Riksbank responded as follows. On the subject of auditing: “Answer 1: Yes, the Riksbank performs regularly physical audits of its gold.“ In response to the question about a gold bar weight list, the Chief Press Officer said: Answer 2: The Riksbank publishes information about where the gold is stored and how much in tonnes is at each place. See table (same distribution table as above). However, the Riksbank does not publish weight lists or other details of the gold holdings.“ So here we have the Riksbank claiming that it personally now performs physical audits of its gold on a regular basis. This is the first time in the public domain, as far as I know, that the Riksbank is claiming to have undertaken physical gold audits of its gold holdings, and it goes beyond the 2013 statement from the Riksbank’s Sophie Degenne when she said “we will also start with our own inspections“. But critically ,there was zero proof offered by the Riksbank to me, or on its website, that it has undertaken any physical gold audits. There is no documentation or evidence whatsoever that any physical audits have ever been conducted on any of the 10,000 gold bars in any of the 5 supposed storage locations that the Riksbank claims to store gold bars at. Contrast this to the bi-annual physical audits which are carried out on the gold bars in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) which are published on the GLD website. In any other industry, there would be an outcry and court cases and litigation if an entity claimed it had conducted audits while offering no proof of said audits. However, in the world of central banking, perversely, this secrecy is allowed to persist. This is outrageous to say the least and Swedish citizens should be very concerned about this lack of transparency of the Swedish gold reserves. Official Secrecy about Swedish Gold Reserves Given the brief and not very useful Riksbank responses to my 2 questions above, I sent a follow on email to the Riksbank asking why the Swedish central bank did not publish a gold bar weight list. My question was as follows: “Is there any specific reason why the Riksbank does not publish a gold bar weight list in the way, for example, that a gold-backed ETF does publish such a weight list every trading day? i.e. Why is the Riksbank not transparent about its gold bar holdings?” This second email was answered by the Riksbank Head of Communications, as follows: “This kind of information is covered by secrecy relating to foreign affairs, as well as security secrecy and surveillance secrecy in accordance with the relevant provisions in the Swedish Public Access to Information and Secrecy Act. As far as we are aware of, the Riksbank is among the most transparent central banks, being public with information about the storage locations and volumes, but do let us know if any other central banks are offering the level of transparency you are asking for (except for Germany of course, which we are aware about).” So here you can see here that gold, which in the words of the Wall Street Journal is just a ‘Pet Rock’, is covered by some very strong secrecy laws in Sweden. Why would a pet rock need ultra strong secrecy laws? An explanatory document on Sweden’s “Public Access to Information and Secrecy Act” can be accessed here. In Sweden, the rules governing public access to official documents are covered by the Freedom of the Press Act. While its beyond topic to go into the details of Swedish secrecy laws right now, there is a short section in the document titled “What official documents may be kept secret?” (Section 2.2) which includes the following: “The Freedom of the Press Act lists the interests that may be protected by keeping official documents secret: National security or Sweden’s relations with a foreign state or an international organisation; The central financial policy, the monetary policy, or the national foreign exchange policy; Inspection, control or other supervisory activities of a public authority; The interest of preventing or prosecuting crime; The public economic interest; The protection of the personal or economic circumstances of private subjects; or The preservation of animal or plant species. Given that the Riksbank stated that the information in its gold bar weight lists was “covered by secrecy relating to foreign affairs, as well as security secrecy and surveillance secrecy”, I would hazard a guess that the Riksbank would try to reject Freedom of Information requests in this area by pointing to central bank gold storage and gold operations as falling under points 1 or 2, i.e. falling under national security or relations with a foreign state or international organisation, or else monetary policy / foreign exchange policy (especially given that the Riksbank uses gold reserves in its foreign currency interventions). Perhaps the Riksbank would also try to twist point 5 as an excuse, i.e. that it wouldn’t be in the public economic interest to release the Swedish gold bar details. As to why the Riksbank and nearly all other central banks are ultra secretive about gold bar weight lists and even physical auditing of gold bar holdings usually boils down to the fact that, like the Riksbank, these gold bar holdings are actively managed and are often used in gold loans, gold swaps and even gold location swaps. If identifiable details of the gold bars of such central banks were in the public domain, given that these bars are involved in loans, currency swaps and location swaps, these gold bar details could begin to show up in the gold bar lists of other central banks or of the gold bar lists of publicly listed gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds. This would then blow the cover of the central banks which continue to maintain the fiction that their loaned and swapped gold is still held in unencumbered custody on their balance sheets, and would blow a hole in their contrived and corrupt accounting policies. A Proposal to the Oldest Central Bank in the World Since the Riksbank happened to ask me were there any central banks “offering the level of transparency [I was] asking for” i.e. providing gold bar weight lists, I decided to send a final response back to the Riksbank in early March highlighting the central banks that I am aware of that have published such gold bar weight lists, and I also took the opportunity of proposing that the Riksbank should follow suit in publishing its gold bar weight list. My letter to the Riksbank was as follows: “You had asked which central banks offered a level of transparency on their gold holdings that include publication of a gold bar weight list. Apart from the Deutsche Bundesbank, which you know about, I can think of 3 central banks which have released weight lists of their gold bar holdings. The 3 examples below (together with the Bundesbank) show that some of the most important central banks and monetary authorities in the world have now deemed it acceptable to include the release of gold bar weight lists as part of their gold communication transparency strategies. The 4 sets of weight lists below include gold bar holdings at the Bank of England (stored by Mexico, Australia, Germany), and at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (stored by the US Treasury and Bundesbank). Together these two storage locations account for 60% of the Riksbank’s gold holdings (74.6 tonnes). The Riksbank is the world’s oldest central bank and has a long track record of being progressive and transparent. By releasing the Riksbank’s gold bar weight lists for the gold bars stored over the 5 storage locations (London, New York, Ottawa, Berne and in Sweden), the Swedish central bank would be joining an elite group of central banks and monetary institutions that could be considered the early stage adopters of much needed transparency in this area.” 1. Bank of Mexico Most recently in 2017, Bank of Mexico has released a weight list of its earmarked gold bars stored at the Bank of England. This list in pdf format can be downloaded here – > http://www.guillermobarba.com/assets/uploads/2017/03/LT-BM-18703-ok.pdf The Mexican list details 7265 gold bars held (about 90 tonnes), and includes bank of England internal sequence number, refiner brand, gross weight, assay (fineness), and fine weight. See also https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/mexicos-earmarked-gold-bars-bank-englands-vaults/ 2. Reserve Bank of Australia In July 2014, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released a weight list of 6313 gold bars (about 79 tonnes) that it has stored at the bank of England in London. See http://www.rba.gov.au/information/foi/disclosure-log/rbafoi-131418.html The weight list in Excel format can be downloaded here http://www.rba.gov.au/information/foi/disclosure-log/xls/131418.xls The RBA list includes refiner brand, gross weight, assay (fineness), and fine weight, as well as bank of England account number. 3. US Treasury In 2011, the US Treasury’s full detailed schedules of gold bars was published by the US House Committee on Financial Services as part of submissions for its hearing titled “Investigating the Gold: H.R. 1495, the Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2011 and the Oversight of United States Gold Holdings”. These US Treasury weight lists are as follows, and are downloadable from the financial services section of the “house.gov” web site. Weight list of all Treasury gold held at Fort Knox, Denver and West Point – 699,515 bars – pdf format http://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/attachment_4_mints_schedule_of_inventory_of_deep_storage_gold_reserves.pdf Weight list of all Treasury gold held at Fort Knox, Denver and West Point – 699,515 bars – xlsformat http://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/mints_schedule_of_inventory_of_deep_storage_gold_reserves.xls Weight List of Treasury gold held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) – 31,204 bars. List starts at page 132 of pdf (or page 128 of file) http://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/112-41.pdf Deutsche Bundesbank The Bundesbank weight list which you know about. The most recent version of this list was published on 23rd February 2017 and can be downloaded here http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Downloads/Bundesbank/Organisation/bar_list.pdf?__blob=publicationFile The Bundesbank list show all the German gold bars held at the Bank of England, NY fed and Banque de France as well as in Frankfurt.” Conclusion As of now, the Swedish Riksbank has a) not published a gold bar weight list of any of its gold bar holdings and b) not acknowledged my follow up email where I listed the central banks that have produced such lists and suggested that the Riksbank do likewise. The Swedish Riksbank claims to hold 10,000 large Good Delivery gold bars in 5 locations across the world and now claims to have conducted physical gold audits of this gold. Yet it has never published any physical gold audit results of any of these gold bars nor published any of the serial numbers of any of the 10,000 gold bars it claims to have in storage. For a so-called progressive democracy this is shocking, although not surprising given the arrogance and unaccountability of central bankers. If someone with time on their hands, ideally a Swedish citizen, has an interest in this area, it would be worthwhile for them to research the rules of the Swedish Freedom of Information Act, and then craft a few carefully worded Freedom of Information requests to the Riksbank requesting physical audit documents and gold bar weight lists of Sweden’s 125.7 tonnes of gold that is supposedly held in London, New York, Ottawa, Berne and in Sweden. While these Freedom of Information requests would probably get rejected due a some spurious secrecy excuse and thrown back at the applicant in short order, at least its worth trying, and might even make a good story for the Swedish media to cover. This article was first published on the BullionStar website as "Sweden’s Gold Reserves: 10,000 gold bars shrouded in Official Secrecy".
Фокус Рынка 25.04.2017 - Основная повестка дня: индекс уверенности потребителей США; — Выходит публикация квартальных отчетов таких компаний: 3M, AT&T, Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, DuPont, Hyundai, McDonald's; — Индекс делового климата IFO Германии вырос с 112,4 до 112,9; — Bank of America: будем покупать британский фунт на снижениях; — МВФ: Греция вынуждена будет провести болезненные реформы; — UOB: стоит продавать EUR/USD с защитным стоп-приказом — 1,1050; — JP Morgan: неопределенность вокруг налоговой реформы США сдерживает рост американского доллара; — Стоимость бензина в России выше, чем в США; — Morgan Stanley: пара EUR/USD может вырасти после второго тура выборов по Франции; — ING: в июне пара EUR/USD вырастет до 1,12 — 1,13; — Аналитики Berenberg советуют продажу акций компании Bank of America (BAC); — Аналитики Loop Capital советуют продажу акций компании Walt Disney (DIS); — Аналитики Wedbush рекомендуют покупку акций компании Amazon (AMZN) с целевым уровнем 1250$; — Nomura: евро может вырасти до 1,15 после победы Макрона на президентских выборах во Франции;- Отчет Бундесбанка: экономический рост Германии замедлится до 2025 года; — Роснефть заплатит акционерам в виде дивидендов 35%, все остальные компании с государственным капиталом — 50%.
Потенциальный экономический рост в Германии, вероятно, замедлится к 2025 году, поскольку рабочая сила будет сокращаться, несмотря на высокий уровень иммиграции, говорится в ежемесячном докладе Бундесбанка, опубликованном в понедельник. Центральный банк оценивает, что численность рабочей силы сократится на 2,5 млн. человек к середине следующего десятилетия. Банк сказал, что потенциальный рост, вероятно, упадет до 0,75 процента годовых к 2025 году с примерно 1,25 процента. Тем не менее, Бундесбанк заявил, что экономика Германии, по прогнозам, значительно увеличится в зимнем квартале 2017 года. По словам банка, частное потребление будет оставаться важным фактором роста благодаря благоприятным условиям на рынке труда и хорошему настроению потребителей. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Рост экономики Германии резко ускорился в I квартале на фоне роста промышленности и частного потребления, что и стимулировало расширение.
Рост экономики Германии резко ускорился в первом квартале на фоне роста промышленности и частного потребления, что и стимулировало расширение.
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Project Syndicate writer, Hans-Werner Sinn, explains why the ECB’s asset purchases and Target2 imbalances constitute “Europe’s Secret Bailout”. Under the ECB’s QE program, which started in March 2015, eurozone members’ central banks buy private market securities for €1.74 trillion ($1.84 trillion), with more than €1.4 trillion to be used to purchase their own countries’ government debt. The QE program seems to be symmetrical because each central bank repurchases its own government debt in proportion to the size of the country. But it does not have a symmetrical effect, because government debt from southern European countries, where the debt binges and current-account deficits of the past occurred, are mostly repurchased abroad. For example, the Banco de España repurchases Spanish government bonds from all over the world, thereby deleveraging the country vis-à-vis private creditors. To this end, it asks other eurozone members’ central banks, particularly the German Bundesbank and, in some cases, the Dutch central bank, to credit the payment orders to the German and Dutch bond sellers. Frequently, if the sellers of Spanish government bonds are outside the eurozone, it will ask the ECB to credit the payment orders. In the latter case, this often results in triangular transactions, with the sellers transferring the money to Germany or the Netherlands to invest it in fixed-interest securities, companies, or company shares. Thus, the German Bundesbank and the Dutch central bank must credit not only the direct payment orders from Spain but also the indirect orders resulting from the Banca de España’s repurchases in third countries. The payment order credits granted by the Bundesbank and the Dutch central bank are recorded as Target claims against the euro system. For the GIPS countries [Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain], these transactions are a splendid deal. They can exchange interest-bearing government debt with fixed maturities held by private investors for the (currently) non-interest-bearing and never-payable Target book debt of their central banks – institutions that the Maastricht Treaty defines as limited liability companies because member states do not have to recapitalize them when they are over-indebted. If a crash occurs and those countries leave the euro, their national central banks are likely to go bankrupt because much of their debt is denominated in euro, whereas their claims against the respective states and the banks will be converted to the new depreciating currency. The Target claims of the remaining euro system will then vanish into thin air, and the Bundesbank and the Dutch central bank will only be able to hope that other surviving central banks participate in their losses. At that time, German and Dutch asset sellers who now hold central bank money will notice that their stocks are claims against their central banks that are no longer covered. One should not assume that anyone is actively striving for a crash. But, in view of the negotiations – set to begin in 2018 – on a European fiscal union (implying systematic transfers from the EU’s north to its south), it wouldn’t hurt if Germany and the Netherlands knew what would happen if they did not sign a possible treaty. As it stands, they will presumably agree to a fiscal union, if only because it will enable them to hide the expected write-off losses in a European transfer union, rather than disclosing those losses now. Target2 Answer I had been struggling to understand the precise relationship between Target2 liabilities, including those within the ECB itself, and the ECB’s QE program. The above explanation appears to provide the answer. Regardless, euro-denominated debts that cannot possibly be paid back keep piling up. Target2 Liabilities If Greece were to leave the Eurozone and pay back its debts in Drachmas, either the ECB would have to print €71.0 billion to cover the default, or the other eurozone nations would have to split the bill based on their percentage weight in the EMU. If Italy left the eurozone, the shared liability would be €386.1 billion. Responsibility Percentages That table refers to ESM commitments. Percentage responsibilities apply should there be a default. What If? If Italy were to default, its 17.9% would have to be redistributed proportionally to the other countries or the ECB would have to violate its treaty and print the euros. My conclusion is not the same as Hans-Werner Sinn who concludes “As it stands, they [Germany and the Netherlands] will presumably agree to a fiscal union, if only because it will enable them to hide the expected write-off losses in a European transfer union, rather than disclosing those losses now.” I strongly suspect the ECB would violate the treaty agreements and print euros to cover a default. Germany and the Netherlands would go along.
S&P futures are little changed at 6am ET, trading at 2347.55 and paring an earlier 0.4 percent drop, on the back of the USDJPY ramp which for the second day in a row has emerged alongside the European open, just as the key 110 support level appears in danger, soothing concerns about the Fed's balance sheet reduction and "some" Fed officials warning that stocks have gotten expensive. The S&P plunged in the last 90 minutes of trading on Wednesday led by banks and energy companies. While Asian stocks fall in early trading, European bourses rebounded from session lows alongside the S&P and USDJPY. In Europe, media, bank and insurers lead the decline but have since cut their losses as the market's attention shifts to the upcoming summit between Trump and Xi. Ahead of Mar-A-Lago meeting, central banks remained the dominant theme for markets on Thursday, with traders troubled by the prospect of a shrinking Fed balance sheet and the euro briefly tumbling then recouping much of its losses after Mario Draghi reaffirmed ECB monetary policy. Specifically, the ECB's President warned Thursday that it was too early to reduce the bank's massive monetary stimulus, despite signs of strength in the eurozone economy, and pushed back against suggestions that the ECB might raise interest rates soon. Top ECB officials have sent out mixed messages in recent days on whether the central bank is ready to wind down sweeping stimulus measures such as its EUR2.3 trillion ($2.5 trillion) bond-purchase program and subzero interest rates. As a result, market expectations for an ECB rate hike in one year have declined sharply over the past two weeks. Investor expectations that the ECB could raise the cost of borrowing as early as January 2018 had increased after Draghi’s March 9 press conference. Governing Council members from Austria’s Ewald Nowotny to the Netherlands’ Klaas Knot and Italy’s Ignazio Visco, as well as Executive Board member Benoit Coeure, had voiced to different degrees openness to a change in sequencing. As has often been the case, Draghi's commentary was quickly defused by comments from the Bundesbank's own Jens Weidmann who said “given the prospect of a continuous, robust economic recovery in the euro area and an increase in price pressure, the discussion on when the Governing Council should consider monetary policy normalization and how it could adjust its communication accordingly in advance is legitimate." Weidmann adds that “there is agreement within the Governing Council that an expansive monetary policy stance is currently appropriate” yet one can “be of different opinions about the correct degree of monetary policy expansion. I could have imagined a less expansive monetary policy, especially as many economic indicators are developing positively.” The currency impact was as follows: Europe's Stoxx 600 Index headed for its first retreat in three days as S&P 500 futures steadied. Treasury yields pared some of Wednesday’s drop, which was triggered by the Fed's warning it would reduce its balance sheet before year end, damping the need for interest-rate hikes. As Bloomberg notes, the Fed minutes did little to alter market views on the bank’s assessment of the economy, but the discussion on shrinking the $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year underscored prospects for a drop in global liquidity. The message once again contrasted with that of the central bank in Europe, where Draghi said on Thursday “continued support for demand remains key.” "Most portfolio managers think equities are the most overbought in 20 years and so anything that creates some kind of concern, well, it is an excuse to take profits," said Pictet Asset Management's chief strategist Luca Paolini. He was referring to minutes of the Fed's last meeting that showed most of the U.S. central bank's policymakers thought it should begin trimming its $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year, earlier than many had expected. Some Fed members also "viewed equity prices as quite high relative to standard valuation measures," a rare comment on asset levels that also caught investors off guard. “If near-zero rates and central bank buying of bonds have been the fundamental driver of global capital towards higher-yielding assets, then reversing both parts of this can’t be helpful,” Kit Juckes, a global strategist at Societie Generale, wrote in a note. “Which is how markets have reacted overnight.” Broader sentiment had also been bruised overnight when U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan said there was no consensus on tax reform and it would take longer to accomplish than healthcare. Markets have risen in recent months in part on speculation fiscal stimulus would boost U.S. growth and inflation. "Trump's agenda is falling to pieces," said Pictet's Paolini. "And that is probably the main concern (for stock market investors)." The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.2 percent after closing little changed on Wednesday. Futures on the S&P 500 were modestly in the green adter declining 0.4% earlier in the session. The whiplash in sentiment saw Japan's Nikkei hit its lowest since early December. Australia's index also lost 0.5 percent. Shanghai .SSEC made marginal gains as a private survey of China's service sector showed activity expanded at its slowest pace in six months in March. "We were hit by a bucket of cold water," said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. "Signs that the Fed could pare its balance sheet are shocking enough, but the mood was exacerbated as the Fed touched upon stock valuations, which is very rare." Today the focus turns to President Trump’s two-day meeting with China President Xi Jingping at Trump’s estate in Florida. There don’t appear to be any scheduled press conferences just yet but it’s worth keeping an eye on the headlines as the next two days progress. Clearly North Korea will be a subject near to the top of the agenda. Importantly though the meeting is the start of a new China-US bilateral relationship so the rhetoric which follows from the leaders will be closely scrutinised and debated one would imagine. Topping the agenda at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida will be whether he makes good on his threat to use U.S.-China trade ties to pressure Beijing to do more to rein in its nuclear-armed neighbor North Korea. Nerves were not helped when U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Scott Swift said any decision on a pre-emptive attack against North Korea would be up to Trump. Investors also remain focused on health care and tax policy in Washington, with House Speaker Paul Ryan saying the chances for a vote on a revised repeal of Obamacare this week were dwindling. Ryan also said tax reform could take longer, Reuters reported. The Bloomberg Dollar Index returned to gains as gold and oil pared declines and the euro was little changed. Initial jobless claims data due. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,346.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 378.30 MXAP down 0.8% to 146.21 MXAPJ down 0.7% to 479.56 Nikkei down 1.4% to 18,597.06 Topix down 1.6% to 1,480.18 Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 24,273.72 Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,281.01 Sensex down 0.4% to 29,865.57 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 5,856.29 Kospi down 0.4% to 2,152.75 German 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.253% Euro down 0.09% to 1.0653 per US$ Brent Futures unchanged at $54.36/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.976% Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to 1.644% Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,254.65 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 100.58 Top Overnight News Unilever Revamps to Protect Independence After Kraft Bid It’s Fed Versus Market as Traders Bet Balance Sheet Slows Hiking Cohn Said to Back Wall Street Split of Lending, Investment Banks House Speaker Ryan Meets With Finance Executives at Capitol Trump’s Tax Overhaul Keeps Congress Waiting as Questions Pile Up Trump Warns Syria Poison Gas Attack Goes ‘Beyond Red Lines’ Deutsche Bank Said Near Full Takeup for $8.5 Billion Offer Euro Declines as Draghi Sees No Need for ECB to Change Course BlackRock Is ‘Tactically Adding’ to South African Bond Holdings HNA Said to Be in Advanced Talks for $1 Billion CWT Takeover Costco March Comp. Sales Beat Estimates Gartner Sees Higher Mobile Device Spending on Chinese Upgrades Ford to Introduce Two New Electric Vehicles to China GM India Says Continues to Progress Toward Sale of Halol Plant Barrick Says Shandong to Buy 50% of Veladero Mine for $960m Google Invests in INDIGO Undersea Cable in Southeast Asia Asia equity markets traded negative following a similar downbeat US close amid weakness in the energy sector and in the wake of the Fed minutes, which showed that the Fed discussed normalization of the balance sheet and that some officials viewed stock prices as quite high. ASX 200 (-0.5%) suffered from losses in the financial sector, while Nikkei 225 (-1.4%) was the laggard in the region on JPY strength as USD/JPY failed to maintain 111.00. Hang Seng (-0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were mixed as participants digest the latest Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI figures which printed at 6-month lows, but remained in expansionary territory. 10yr JGBs traded marginally higher amid a subdued risk tone in stocks, while today's enhanced liquidity auction super-long JGBs drew greater interest with the b/c increasing from prior. Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Mar) 52.2 (Prey. 52.6); 6-month low. (Newswires) Chinese Caixin Composite PMI (Mar) 52.1 (Prey. 52.6); 6-month low. PBoC refrained from conducting open market operations for the 8th consecutive day. Top Asian News Mobius Says China Stocks Are Too Expensive After Tech-Led Surge Hongqiao Tycoon Sought China Help on Auditor Talks, Short Seller Yum China 1Q Rev. Beats Est.; Shares Rise South Korea Tests Long-Range Ballistic Missile, Yonhap Reports ADB Keeps 2017 Growth Forecast for Developing Asia at 5.7% Japan Stocks to Watch: Yamato, McDonald’s, Honda Motor, Toyota China Bear Has Change of Heart on Bet for New Business Cycle Yes, Axis Bank Shares Overshoot Analyst Targets; Hedging Cheap European equities initially traded with a risk-off bias following the decline in US and Asian bourses after the FOMC minutes showed that members were concerned over the strength in stock markets as some participants viewed equity prices as "quite high". While the minutes also showed that officials were split on whether higher inflation warranted faster hikes now or a more gradual pace. As such, financial names have been hardest hit across Europe, while the weakness in crude futures has weighed on the energy sector. The flight to quality trade has been felt in credit markets, with bond yields trending lower this morning. However, the gains in Eurozone bond prices have been curbed by supply from Spain and France. In terms of how the supply was digested, both were received well by the market with French paper managing to survive any political concerns in the region as the usual buyers managed to step up to the plate as expected. Top European News: German Factory Orders Recover as Economic Momentum Strong EU Steelmakers Win 5-Year Tariffs on Chinese Hot-Rolled Coil These ’Anomalous’ Spreads Show the ECB Distorting Bond Markets Vlieghe Says Faster U.K. Inflation Alone Won’t Nudge Him to Hike Seadrill at Mercy of Day Traders as Biggest Funds Dump Stock German Banks Call for ECB to Scale Back Bond Purchases This Year Vivendi Said to Seek Two-Thirds of Telecom Italia Board Seats Amundi Sees Stock Bulls Return to Europe as France Concerns Fade PPG May ‘Slightly’ Increase Its Bid for Akzo Nobel, KBC Says In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1 percent at 10:45 a.m. in London following a 0.1 percent drop Wednesday. The euro erased earlier gains to trade little changed. The South African rand regained some ground after recent declines to trade 0.1 percent higher. USD/JPY has again tested down into the low 110.00's, but we continue to run into buyers ahead the figure, and will likely do so as long as the key 10yr yield holds off 2.30%. This will rest on Wall Street to a notable degree, with European bourses modestly lower so far this morning. We have also seen EUR/JPY dip under 118.00 again, but the recovery looks temporary as does the pullback off the EUFt/USD lows this morning, where sub 1.0650 has been retested. We have the ECB inutes later today, but president Draghi has already reassured the market that there further evidence/confidence required before altering the current monetary policy stance, but the EUR dip was short lived. This impact on EUR/GBP also, testing down to 0.8500 but holding off the figure and rebounding sharply to suggest some sizeable buy orders ahead. Cable is caught between 1.2400 and 1.2500 as a result, but the tight trade in GBP near term is perhaps also reflective of the lack of gauge in UK-EU negotiations to come. In commodities, WTI crude erased an earlier drop to trade little changed at $51.17 a barrel; data on Wednesday showed U.S. output rose for a seventh week and inventories expanded to a fresh record. Gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,253.38 an ounce. Commodity markets have much to contend with amid the political backdrop, heightened by the meeting between respective presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. Nevertheless, fresh hopes of Chinese demand continue to bolster base metals near term, with Copper edging higher but tentatively so as USD2.70 nears. On the day, Zinc is outperforming, but few specific drivers to point to with the overhang of the 'above. Oil prices have managed to stabilise after the surprise DoE build reported yesterday, having dipped below USD51.00. A tentative recovery as yet. Precious metals continue to move with Treasuries, and in line with this, risk sentiment adds some support which ties in with the dip in US yields. Looking at the day ahead, we will get the latest ECB minutes followed by US data which includes the latest weekly initial jobless claims report. The other important event today is the earlier mentioned meeting between President Trump and China President Xi Jinping. US Event Calendar 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -40.0% 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 250,000, prior 258,000 8:30am: Continuing Claims, est. 2.03m, prior 2.05 9:30am: Fed’s Williams Speaks on a Panel in Frankfurt 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 49.7 DB's Jim Reid summaries the overnight wrap Where did it all go wrong for US equities last night after a strong session before the last 2 hours? Well the FOMC minutes and comments from House Speaker Ryan seemed to turn a +0.76% gain to a closing -0.31% loss in the S&P 500. The sections of the minutes that concerned the market were “some participants viewed equity prices as quite high relative to standard valuation measures” and also that “prices of other risk assets, such as emerging market stocks, high yield corporate bonds, and commercial real estate, had also risen significantly in recent months”. The more talked about subject in the market leading into the minutes was what Fed officials were thinking about the balance sheet debate. The minutes revealed that “provided that the economy continued to perform about as expected, most participants anticipated that gradual increases in the federal funds rate would continue and judged that a change to the committee’s reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year”. Meanwhile the discussion around fiscal policy suggested that stimulus expectations have been pushed out by some officials to 2018 which matches what the Fed’s Evans had said last week. Indeed the minutes showed that “participants continued to underscore the considerable uncertainty about the timing and nature of potential changes to fiscal policies as well as the size of the effects of such changes on economic activity”. The text then went on to say that “however, several participants now anticipated that meaningful fiscal stimulus would likely not begin until 2018” and that in light of this “about half of the participants did not incorporate explicit assumptions about fiscal policies in their projections”. Meanwhile the Ryan comments emerged in a Reuters article in which he was quoted as saying that tax reforms will take longer to accomplish than the repeal and replacement of Obamacare. Ryan also said that “the House has a (tax reform) plan but the Senate doesn’t quite have one yet” and “so even the three entities aren’t on the same page yet”. Separate to this Ryan also confirmed that the House will not reach a deal on healthcare before the start of the two week break with a Congressman official also confirming that “we are going to go home tomorrow without a deal”. Treasury yields had topped out at 2.382% for the 10y just prior to the minutes and Ryan comments yesterday before falling sharply into the close to end the day down 2.5bps at 2.336%. It was a similar story at the front end too with 2y yields ending the day down 1.8bps at 1.236%. The Dollar index finished more or less unchanged after paring a move higher of as much as +0.30% while Gold bounced all the way back after being down as much as -1.00%. The other big mover in the commodity complex was Oil where WTI Oil had at one stage traded as high as $51.88/bbl and over +1.50% higher intraday. However the latest EIA data revealed that crude stockpiles rose to another record high last week which sent Oil prices sharply lower with WTI back below $51/bbl this morning. Today the focus turns to President Trump’s two-day meeting with China President Xi Jingping at Trump’s estate in Florida. There don’t appear to be any scheduled press conferences just yet but it’s worth keeping an eye on the headlines as the next two days progress. Clearly North Korea will be a subject near to the top of the agenda. Importantly though the meeting is the start of a new China-US bilateral relationship so the rhetoric which follows from the leaders will be closely scrutinised and debated one would imagine. Ahead of that markets in Asia this morning appear to be largely following the lead from that weaker momentum into the Wall Street close last night. The Nikkei (-1.40%) has been the big mover this morning, not helped by a slightly stronger Yen (which has touched the highest since mid-November), while the Hang Seng (-0.50%), ASX (-0.62%) and Kospi (-0.53%) are also down. Bourses in China are however flat as we go to print. That is despite the Caixin PMI in China falling 0.4pts to 52.2 in March and the lowest level since September. US equity futures are also currently in the red. Moving on. While the FOMC minutes and Ryan comments largely dominated the focus for markets yesterday there was also some important data to digest. Indeed helping to support the initial positive sentiment in markets was the March ADP employment report which revealed a significant 263k gain in private payrolls. That was well above the consensus forecast for 185k and although there was a 53k downward revision to the February reading the three month average has still risen to a healthy 259k which paints a positive picture ahead of payrolls tomorrow. In contrast there was some disappointment in the ISM non-manufacturing print for last month which declined 2.4pts at the headline to 55.2 (vs. 57.0 expected) and the lowest since October while the final services PMI was also revised down 0.1pts to 52.8. In the details of the former the employment component tumbled 3.6pts to 51.6 which is actually the lowest reading since August while new orders dipped 2.3pts, albeit to a still solid 58.9. Over in Europe the main focus was also on the final PMI revisions. The final services reading for the Euro area was revised down half a point to 56.0 which as a result saw the composite scaled back 0.3pts to 56.4. That softer services reading was largely as a result of a 1pt downward revision in France to 57.5 with Germany left unchanged at 55.6. In Italy the services PMI declined 1.5pts to 52.9 (vs. 54.3 expected) while in Spain the PMI came in at 57.4 and marginally down on February. All told our economists in Europe noted that notwithstanding the slight retreat in the reading the Euro area PMIs still suggest clear upside to their moderate growth forecasts in Q1. Indeed they note that the data points to growth of 0.6% to 0.7% qoq versus their 0.3% to 0.4% projection which reflects more mixed hard data of late. For completeness the services PMI in the UK yesterday was solid at 55.0 for March which represents an uplift of 1.7pts. That helped the FTSE 100 to close up +0.13% while the Stoxx 600 finished +0.02% after paring gains into the close. Staying with Europe for a second, it’s worth noting the comments from ECB Governing Council member Weidmann yesterday. In an interview with Die Zeit, Weidmann said that it is getting closer to a time when the ECB should “not have the foot pressed down on the gas pedal, but to lift it slightly”. The article also suggested that Weidmann would welcome bond purchases stopping in one year and that the economic recovery in the Euro area is robust and will continue. So fairly hawkish, although not too dissimilar to the timing implied by the ECB. Interestingly there was no comment or mention about depo policy which has been more topical of late. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe it’s fairly quiet with factory orders data in Germany the only release of note. ECB President Draghi is also due to speak in Frankfurt at 8am BST when he makes opening remarks at the annual ‘ECB and its Watchers Conference’ so that might be worth keeping an eye on. The ECB’s Praet will also speak at the event as will the Fed’s Williams at 2.30pm BST. Away from that we will then get the latest ECB minutes just after midday followed by US data which includes the latest weekly initial jobless claims report. The other important event today is the earlier mentioned meeting between President Trump and China President Xi Jinping.
Главные новости- Представитель ФРС Харкер (скорее ястреб с правом голоса) ожидает еще два повышения ставки в этом году, но, по его мнению, нет аргументов для еще одного повышения ставки уже на следующем заседании. Он не ожидает резкого прекращения практики реинвестирования портфеля ФРС. Предпочел бы в большей степени сокращать портфель Treasuries, нежели портфель обеспеченных ипотекой бумаг (MBS). - Представитель ФРС Дадли (скорее голубь с правом голоса) заявил, что прогнозные материалы ФРС по ставкам являются прогнозами, а не обязательствами. - Аналитический отчет ФРБ Сан-Франциско заключил, что ставки имеют более значимое влияние на экономику, чем ранее предполагалось и “даже небольшой цикл ужесточения может произвести существенное воздействие”. - ЕС считает переговоры по превентивной рекапитализации итальянских банков Popolare Vicenza и Veneto Banca конструктивными, ожидает решения “в течение ближайших недель”. ЕЦБ видит необходимость в наращивании капитала на 6.4 млрд. евро. - Бундесбанк и германский регулятор BaFin проведут стресс-тесты более чем 1500 мелких германских банков в ближайшие месяцы. - Помощь от фондов ЕС для Греции составила более чем 10 млрд. евро с июля 2015 года, или 6% греческого ВВП, сообщает Bild. - Продажи автомобилей в США в марте упали сильнее, чем ожидалось, с 17.47 млн. в год до 16.53 млн. в год (прогноз 17.3 млн.) - ЦБ Австралии оставил ставку неизменной на уровне 1.5%, как и ожидалось.Источник: FxTeam
Мир теряет веру в доллар как в самую надежную валюту. Волна недоверия поднялась после того, как Немецкий федеральный банк потребовал репатриации огромного количества золота, хранящегося в Федеральной резервной системе США. Некоторые обеспокоены тем, что национальные вклады других стран не будут в безопасности в США. Да и находятся ли они там вообще? Подробности в репортаже корреспондента RT Гаяне Чичакян. Подписывайтесь на RT Russian - http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=rtrussian RT на русском - http://russian.rt.com/ Vkontakte - http://vk.com/rt_russian Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/RTRussian Twitter - http://twitter.com/RT_russian Livejournal - http://rt-russian.livejournal.com/
О GATA и «золотом картеле» Еще в конце ХХ века наиболее въедливые эксперты стали подозревать, что на рынке золота происходит что-то неладное. А именно: даже если жёлтый металл не дешевеет, то цены на него всё равно отстают по темпам роста от динамики цен на многие другие товары мирового рынка. Золото дешевело также на фоне индексов фондовых рынков, цен на недвижимость и т.п. Никаких крупных месторождений золота в это время не было открыто, золотые метеориты на Землю не падали. Заниженные цены на желтый металл больно били по компаниям золотодобывающей промышленности. Представители нескольких компаний этой отрасли решили разобраться в загадке, для чего и создали организацию под названием GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action). В буквальном переводе - «Действие против Золотого Треста». Как следует из названия, учредители GATA подозревали, что на мировом рынке золота действует группа злоумышленников, объединенных в трест, который манипулирует ценами на золото в сторону их занижения. В своих публикациях GATA чаще использовала термин «золотой картель». Постепенно удалось вычислить основных участников этого картеля. Среди них - Казначейство США, Федеральный резервный банк Нью-Йорка (главный из 12 федеральных банков, составляющих ФРС США), Банк Англии, ряд крупнейших коммерческих и инвестиционных банков США и Западной Европы (здесь особо выделяется «Голдман Сакс» - инвестиционный банк с Уолл-стрит). Это – ядро картеля. Время от времени в поле зрения GATA попадали и другие организации, участвовавшие в операциях картеля. В том числе центральные банки некоторых стран. 1990-е годы были периодом наибольшей активности США на мировых рынках активов. Проще говоря, американцы организовывали приватизации государственных предприятий по всему миру (в том числе в России), а для таких операций нужен был сильный доллар. Финансовые аналитики и спекулянты прекрасно знают простое правило: чем ниже цена на золото, тем крепче доллар. Самый простой и дешевый способ укрепить доллар – «прижать» цену на «желтый металл», который явно и неявно выступает конкурентом этой резервной валюты. Однако чтобы «прижать» цену, надо обеспечить повышенное предложение этого металла на мировом рынке. У тех, кто хотел сыграть на «понижение» золота, взоры обратились к несметным запасам золота, сосредоточенным в подвалах казначейств и центральных банков. Эти запасы лежали там без движения с тех пор, как в 1970-е гг. рухнула Бреттон-Вудская валютно-финансовая система. В новой Ямайской валютно-финансовой системе золото перестало быть деньгами, оно было объявлено одним из биржевых товаров – таким как нефть, пшеница или бананы. Версия о золотых манипуляциях центральных банков Как можно использовать это золото для манипуляций ценами? Первое и главное условие сводится к тому, чтобы полностью засекретить официальные запасы желтого металла и все операции денежных властей с ними. Еще более повысить независимый статус центральных банков, для того чтобы «народные избранники», органы финансового контроля и прочие любопытствующие элементы не совали свои носы в дела этих институтов. Не допускать государственных аудиторов до «золотых закромов». В США, например, Главное контрольное управление (Счётная палата Конгресса) последний раз посещало главное хранилище официального золотого запаса США Форт Ноксболее 60 лет назад. Далее под завесой секретности можно начинать операции с золотом. Однако не продавать его, а передавать разным частным структурам «на время», оформляя эти операции как кредиты или лизинг желтого металла. А вместо золотых слитков оставлять в хранилищах бумажки, которые являются с бухгалтерско-юридической точки зрения «требованиями», «расписками», «сертификатами» и т.п. То есть золото на балансе центрального банка сохраняется, только оно имеет не металлическую, а виртуально-бумажную (или даже электронную) форму. А «народу» это знать не обязательно. Если в эти «золотые аферы» втянуть десяток-другой центральных банков, то каждый год на рынок можно выкидывать не одну сотню тонн драгоценного металла и сбивать на него цену. Эксперты (в том числе эксперты GATA) находили многочисленные подтверждения тому, что все это не вымысел, а результат преступного сговора центральных банков с частными банкирами и спекулянтами. И тут сразу возникают вопросы: кому центральные банки передавали золото? Было ли это золото возвращено назад в сейфы центральных банков? Известны ли эти махинации законодателям? Сколько на сегодняшний день реально осталось физического золота в хранилищах центральных банков (и государственных казначейств)? Отметим, что отдельные попытки разобраться в том, что представляют собой официальные золотые запасы, насколько официальная статистика золота отражает истинное положение дел, кто и как управляет официальным золотым запасом, предпринимались парламентариями, политиками, общественными активистами в разных странах. Например, в США такие попытки регулярно предпринимал член Конгресса США Рон Пол. Регулярные запросы в разные инстанции делала также GATA. Денежные власти предпочитали отмалчиваться. Или же ответы были крайне лаконичными и сводились к тому, что «золотой запас страны находится в неприкосновенности». Такую же позицию занимали на протяжении последних 15 лет (с тех пор, как начались разговоры о «золотом картеле») и международные финансовые организации: Банк международных расчетов (который, кстати, активно занимается операциями с желтым металлом и был заподозрен в участии в «золотом картеле»), Всемирный банк, Международный валютный фонд (1). Утечка информации из МВФ И вот последняя новость в этой области. Речь идет о материале, размещенном на сайте GATA в декабре 2012 года (2). Это полученное одним из экспертов GATA секретное исследование Международного валютного фонда 13-летней давности. Оно касается мирового рынка золота и роли центральных банков в операциях на этом рынке в 1999 году. Поскольку оно секретное, то его автор позволяет себе писать полную правду об операциях центральных банков. «Информация о рынке золота неоднородна», – говорится в исследовании. «Для транзакций характерна высокая степень секретности. Наряду с относительно небольшим количеством открытых торгов на биржах, продажи золота представляют собой приватные внебиржевые сделки, о таких операциях сообщается скупо. … Официальные данные о ссудах в золоте практически отсутствуют». Вот ключевые факты и цифры из этого материала МВФ. В 1999 годуболее 80 центральных банков ссудили 15 процентов официальных золотых запасов рынку (имеется в виду величина непогашенных обязательств по золотым кредитам). В числе центральных банков, предоставлявших ссуды в золоте, были Бундесбанк Германии, Швейцарский национальный банк, Банк Англии, Резервный банк Австралии и центральные банки Австрии, Португалии и Венесуэлы. В исследовании подтверждается, что центральные банки играли на рынке золота на «понижение»: «…высокая степень мобилизации резервов центробанка через кредитные операции в золоте оказала понижающее влияние на наличную цену золота, поскольку перекредитуемое золото обычно связано с продажами золота на наличном рынке». Далее в исследовании МВФ говорится, что «кредитование в золоте заставило центробанки проявлять активность на рынке производных финансовых инструментов золота, где участвуют банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами и производители золота, продавая золото через форвардные сделки и опционы. В свою очередь, банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами приложили все усилия для защиты и укрепления долгосрочных отношений с центральными банками». Вот еще выдержка из документа МВФ: «Доля промышленно развитых стран на всём рынке официального кредитования в золоте выросла с 33 процентов в конце 1995 года до 46 процентов к концу 1998 года, поскольку некоторые центральные банки промышленных стран повысили уровень кредитования; в то же время на рынке появились новые кредиторы, в частности Бундесбанк и Швейцарский национальный банк». А вот комментарий эксперта GATA, разместившего данный материал:«При столь значительном количестве центральных банков, секретно предоставляющих ссуды в золоте тем финансовым организациям, чей основной талант, как можно было видеть в последнее время, состоит в рыночных махинациях, кто станет отрицать, кроме обычных агентов дезинформации, что рынком золота манипулируют именно для того, чтобы не позволить всему миру пользоваться свободными рынками?» 2013 год: ждём новых «золотых» скандалов и «золотых» сенсаций Раскрытия страшной тайны золота ждут уже много лет. Ещё в 2004 году Лондонский банк Ротшильдов заявил о своем выходе из «золотого фиксинга» - процедуры ежедневного определения в узком кругу цены на жёлтый металл в лондонском Сити. Тем самым Ротшильды заявили миру, что они выходят из золотого бизнеса, которым занимались на протяжении двух столетий. Однако это – всего лишь эффектный жест. Из золотого бизнеса они не ушли, а продолжили заниматься им через структуры с другими вывесками. Чувствуя угрозу надвигающегося скандала с разоблачениями «золотого картеля», эти олигархические круги решили своевременно отойти от эпицентра возможного взрыва… Возбуждение общественности и политиков по поводу официальных запасов золота резко обострилось в 2012 году. Выяснилось, что на мировом рынке активно идет торговля фальшивым золотом в виде вольфрамовых позолоченных слитков (хотя специалистам об этом стало известно еще в 2004 году, трубить об этом мошенничестве мировые СМИ начали только в 2012 году). Возникли подозрения, что в подвалах центральных банков и казначейств находятся груды вольфрама. Рон Пол добился проведения выборочной проверки брусков металла в подвалах Форт-Нокс и Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка. Германия потребовала от США вернуть золото из своего официального запаса (Бундесбанк), которое хранилось в подвалах ФРБ Нью-Йорка, но встретила глухое сопротивление со стороны казначейства и ФРС США. Кончилось это тем, что председатель Федерального резерва Бен Бернанке заявил, что недавний ураган Сэнди… «уничтожил» немецкое золото. Ничего лучшего он придумать не смог. Все это лишь подкрепило мнение тех, кто давно обвиняет ФРС и другие центральные банки в мошенничестве с золотом. Думаю, что в 2013 г. тема золота центральных банков станет еще более горячей. Например, все с нетерпением ждут обнародования результатов выборочной физической проверки слитков золота из закромов Казначейства США. Власти обещали сообщить об этом в начале 2013 года. От Германии все напряженно ожидают реакции на заявление Бернанке о таинственном исчезновении немецкого золота. Появились вопросы и к Банку международных расчетов (БМР), активно практикующему коммерческие операции с желтым металлом - и собственным, и тем, который центральные банки предоставляют БМР в виде депозитов или кредитов. Отчётность БМР об этих операциях крайне лаконична и не даёт представления о деталях сделок, их контрагентах и конечных бенефициарах. Международный валютный фонд будет продолжать настойчиво требовать от Китая раскрытия истинной информации об официальном золотом запасе. В 2009 г. Народный банк Китая (НБК) сообщил, что его золотые запасы увеличились сразу на 76% и составили 1054 тонны. С тех пор официальные цифры золотого запаса НБК не менялись. Мало кто верит в то, что эти цифры отражают реальное положение дел. Считается, что денежные власти Китая сильно занижают цифры, тайно переводя часть своих несметных валютных резервов в желтый металл. В Конгрессе США ожидается окончательное решение вопроса о том, будет ли ФРС подвергнута серьезному аудиту - впервые за век ее существования. Если такой аудит всё-таки состоится, то полной проверке должны подвергнуться все операции Федерального резерва с золотом. Почти все серьезные эксперты ждут от этой проверки сенсационных разоблачений. (1) Подробнее о манипуляциях «золотого картеля» см.: В.Ю. Катасонов. Золото в экономике и политике России. – М.: Анкил, 2009, с. 57-63. (2) «IMF study in 1999 found 80 central banks lending 15% of official gold reserves». December 9, 2012 (http://www.gata.org/files/IMFGoldLendingFullStudy1999.pdf)