Потенциальный экономический рост в Германии, вероятно, замедлится к 2025 году, поскольку рабочая сила будет сокращаться, несмотря на высокий уровень иммиграции, говорится в ежемесячном докладе Бундесбанка, опубликованном в понедельник. Центральный банк оценивает, что численность рабочей силы сократится на 2,5 млн. человек к середине следующего десятилетия. Банк сказал, что потенциальный рост, вероятно, упадет до 0,75 процента годовых к 2025 году с примерно 1,25 процента. Тем не менее, Бундесбанк заявил, что экономика Германии, по прогнозам, значительно увеличится в зимнем квартале 2017 года. По словам банка, частное потребление будет оставаться важным фактором роста благодаря благоприятным условиям на рынке труда и хорошему настроению потребителей. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Рост экономики Германии резко ускорился в I квартале на фоне роста промышленности и частного потребления, что и стимулировало расширение.
Рост экономики Германии резко ускорился в первом квартале на фоне роста промышленности и частного потребления, что и стимулировало расширение.
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Project Syndicate writer, Hans-Werner Sinn, explains why the ECB’s asset purchases and Target2 imbalances constitute “Europe’s Secret Bailout”. Under the ECB’s QE program, which started in March 2015, eurozone members’ central banks buy private market securities for €1.74 trillion ($1.84 trillion), with more than €1.4 trillion to be used to purchase their own countries’ government debt. The QE program seems to be symmetrical because each central bank repurchases its own government debt in proportion to the size of the country. But it does not have a symmetrical effect, because government debt from southern European countries, where the debt binges and current-account deficits of the past occurred, are mostly repurchased abroad. For example, the Banco de España repurchases Spanish government bonds from all over the world, thereby deleveraging the country vis-à-vis private creditors. To this end, it asks other eurozone members’ central banks, particularly the German Bundesbank and, in some cases, the Dutch central bank, to credit the payment orders to the German and Dutch bond sellers. Frequently, if the sellers of Spanish government bonds are outside the eurozone, it will ask the ECB to credit the payment orders. In the latter case, this often results in triangular transactions, with the sellers transferring the money to Germany or the Netherlands to invest it in fixed-interest securities, companies, or company shares. Thus, the German Bundesbank and the Dutch central bank must credit not only the direct payment orders from Spain but also the indirect orders resulting from the Banca de España’s repurchases in third countries. The payment order credits granted by the Bundesbank and the Dutch central bank are recorded as Target claims against the euro system. For the GIPS countries [Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain], these transactions are a splendid deal. They can exchange interest-bearing government debt with fixed maturities held by private investors for the (currently) non-interest-bearing and never-payable Target book debt of their central banks – institutions that the Maastricht Treaty defines as limited liability companies because member states do not have to recapitalize them when they are over-indebted. If a crash occurs and those countries leave the euro, their national central banks are likely to go bankrupt because much of their debt is denominated in euro, whereas their claims against the respective states and the banks will be converted to the new depreciating currency. The Target claims of the remaining euro system will then vanish into thin air, and the Bundesbank and the Dutch central bank will only be able to hope that other surviving central banks participate in their losses. At that time, German and Dutch asset sellers who now hold central bank money will notice that their stocks are claims against their central banks that are no longer covered. One should not assume that anyone is actively striving for a crash. But, in view of the negotiations – set to begin in 2018 – on a European fiscal union (implying systematic transfers from the EU’s north to its south), it wouldn’t hurt if Germany and the Netherlands knew what would happen if they did not sign a possible treaty. As it stands, they will presumably agree to a fiscal union, if only because it will enable them to hide the expected write-off losses in a European transfer union, rather than disclosing those losses now. Target2 Answer I had been struggling to understand the precise relationship between Target2 liabilities, including those within the ECB itself, and the ECB’s QE program. The above explanation appears to provide the answer. Regardless, euro-denominated debts that cannot possibly be paid back keep piling up. Target2 Liabilities If Greece were to leave the Eurozone and pay back its debts in Drachmas, either the ECB would have to print €71.0 billion to cover the default, or the other eurozone nations would have to split the bill based on their percentage weight in the EMU. If Italy left the eurozone, the shared liability would be €386.1 billion. Responsibility Percentages That table refers to ESM commitments. Percentage responsibilities apply should there be a default. What If? If Italy were to default, its 17.9% would have to be redistributed proportionally to the other countries or the ECB would have to violate its treaty and print the euros. My conclusion is not the same as Hans-Werner Sinn who concludes “As it stands, they [Germany and the Netherlands] will presumably agree to a fiscal union, if only because it will enable them to hide the expected write-off losses in a European transfer union, rather than disclosing those losses now.” I strongly suspect the ECB would violate the treaty agreements and print euros to cover a default. Germany and the Netherlands would go along.
S&P futures are little changed at 6am ET, trading at 2347.55 and paring an earlier 0.4 percent drop, on the back of the USDJPY ramp which for the second day in a row has emerged alongside the European open, just as the key 110 support level appears in danger, soothing concerns about the Fed's balance sheet reduction and "some" Fed officials warning that stocks have gotten expensive. The S&P plunged in the last 90 minutes of trading on Wednesday led by banks and energy companies. While Asian stocks fall in early trading, European bourses rebounded from session lows alongside the S&P and USDJPY. In Europe, media, bank and insurers lead the decline but have since cut their losses as the market's attention shifts to the upcoming summit between Trump and Xi. Ahead of Mar-A-Lago meeting, central banks remained the dominant theme for markets on Thursday, with traders troubled by the prospect of a shrinking Fed balance sheet and the euro briefly tumbling then recouping much of its losses after Mario Draghi reaffirmed ECB monetary policy. Specifically, the ECB's President warned Thursday that it was too early to reduce the bank's massive monetary stimulus, despite signs of strength in the eurozone economy, and pushed back against suggestions that the ECB might raise interest rates soon. Top ECB officials have sent out mixed messages in recent days on whether the central bank is ready to wind down sweeping stimulus measures such as its EUR2.3 trillion ($2.5 trillion) bond-purchase program and subzero interest rates. As a result, market expectations for an ECB rate hike in one year have declined sharply over the past two weeks. Investor expectations that the ECB could raise the cost of borrowing as early as January 2018 had increased after Draghi’s March 9 press conference. Governing Council members from Austria’s Ewald Nowotny to the Netherlands’ Klaas Knot and Italy’s Ignazio Visco, as well as Executive Board member Benoit Coeure, had voiced to different degrees openness to a change in sequencing. As has often been the case, Draghi's commentary was quickly defused by comments from the Bundesbank's own Jens Weidmann who said “given the prospect of a continuous, robust economic recovery in the euro area and an increase in price pressure, the discussion on when the Governing Council should consider monetary policy normalization and how it could adjust its communication accordingly in advance is legitimate." Weidmann adds that “there is agreement within the Governing Council that an expansive monetary policy stance is currently appropriate” yet one can “be of different opinions about the correct degree of monetary policy expansion. I could have imagined a less expansive monetary policy, especially as many economic indicators are developing positively.” The currency impact was as follows: Europe's Stoxx 600 Index headed for its first retreat in three days as S&P 500 futures steadied. Treasury yields pared some of Wednesday’s drop, which was triggered by the Fed's warning it would reduce its balance sheet before year end, damping the need for interest-rate hikes. As Bloomberg notes, the Fed minutes did little to alter market views on the bank’s assessment of the economy, but the discussion on shrinking the $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year underscored prospects for a drop in global liquidity. The message once again contrasted with that of the central bank in Europe, where Draghi said on Thursday “continued support for demand remains key.” "Most portfolio managers think equities are the most overbought in 20 years and so anything that creates some kind of concern, well, it is an excuse to take profits," said Pictet Asset Management's chief strategist Luca Paolini. He was referring to minutes of the Fed's last meeting that showed most of the U.S. central bank's policymakers thought it should begin trimming its $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year, earlier than many had expected. Some Fed members also "viewed equity prices as quite high relative to standard valuation measures," a rare comment on asset levels that also caught investors off guard. “If near-zero rates and central bank buying of bonds have been the fundamental driver of global capital towards higher-yielding assets, then reversing both parts of this can’t be helpful,” Kit Juckes, a global strategist at Societie Generale, wrote in a note. “Which is how markets have reacted overnight.” Broader sentiment had also been bruised overnight when U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan said there was no consensus on tax reform and it would take longer to accomplish than healthcare. Markets have risen in recent months in part on speculation fiscal stimulus would boost U.S. growth and inflation. "Trump's agenda is falling to pieces," said Pictet's Paolini. "And that is probably the main concern (for stock market investors)." The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.2 percent after closing little changed on Wednesday. Futures on the S&P 500 were modestly in the green adter declining 0.4% earlier in the session. The whiplash in sentiment saw Japan's Nikkei hit its lowest since early December. Australia's index also lost 0.5 percent. Shanghai .SSEC made marginal gains as a private survey of China's service sector showed activity expanded at its slowest pace in six months in March. "We were hit by a bucket of cold water," said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. "Signs that the Fed could pare its balance sheet are shocking enough, but the mood was exacerbated as the Fed touched upon stock valuations, which is very rare." Today the focus turns to President Trump’s two-day meeting with China President Xi Jingping at Trump’s estate in Florida. There don’t appear to be any scheduled press conferences just yet but it’s worth keeping an eye on the headlines as the next two days progress. Clearly North Korea will be a subject near to the top of the agenda. Importantly though the meeting is the start of a new China-US bilateral relationship so the rhetoric which follows from the leaders will be closely scrutinised and debated one would imagine. Topping the agenda at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida will be whether he makes good on his threat to use U.S.-China trade ties to pressure Beijing to do more to rein in its nuclear-armed neighbor North Korea. Nerves were not helped when U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Scott Swift said any decision on a pre-emptive attack against North Korea would be up to Trump. Investors also remain focused on health care and tax policy in Washington, with House Speaker Paul Ryan saying the chances for a vote on a revised repeal of Obamacare this week were dwindling. Ryan also said tax reform could take longer, Reuters reported. The Bloomberg Dollar Index returned to gains as gold and oil pared declines and the euro was little changed. Initial jobless claims data due. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,346.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 378.30 MXAP down 0.8% to 146.21 MXAPJ down 0.7% to 479.56 Nikkei down 1.4% to 18,597.06 Topix down 1.6% to 1,480.18 Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 24,273.72 Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,281.01 Sensex down 0.4% to 29,865.57 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 5,856.29 Kospi down 0.4% to 2,152.75 German 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.253% Euro down 0.09% to 1.0653 per US$ Brent Futures unchanged at $54.36/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.976% Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to 1.644% Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,254.65 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 100.58 Top Overnight News Unilever Revamps to Protect Independence After Kraft Bid It’s Fed Versus Market as Traders Bet Balance Sheet Slows Hiking Cohn Said to Back Wall Street Split of Lending, Investment Banks House Speaker Ryan Meets With Finance Executives at Capitol Trump’s Tax Overhaul Keeps Congress Waiting as Questions Pile Up Trump Warns Syria Poison Gas Attack Goes ‘Beyond Red Lines’ Deutsche Bank Said Near Full Takeup for $8.5 Billion Offer Euro Declines as Draghi Sees No Need for ECB to Change Course BlackRock Is ‘Tactically Adding’ to South African Bond Holdings HNA Said to Be in Advanced Talks for $1 Billion CWT Takeover Costco March Comp. Sales Beat Estimates Gartner Sees Higher Mobile Device Spending on Chinese Upgrades Ford to Introduce Two New Electric Vehicles to China GM India Says Continues to Progress Toward Sale of Halol Plant Barrick Says Shandong to Buy 50% of Veladero Mine for $960m Google Invests in INDIGO Undersea Cable in Southeast Asia Asia equity markets traded negative following a similar downbeat US close amid weakness in the energy sector and in the wake of the Fed minutes, which showed that the Fed discussed normalization of the balance sheet and that some officials viewed stock prices as quite high. ASX 200 (-0.5%) suffered from losses in the financial sector, while Nikkei 225 (-1.4%) was the laggard in the region on JPY strength as USD/JPY failed to maintain 111.00. Hang Seng (-0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) were mixed as participants digest the latest Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMI figures which printed at 6-month lows, but remained in expansionary territory. 10yr JGBs traded marginally higher amid a subdued risk tone in stocks, while today's enhanced liquidity auction super-long JGBs drew greater interest with the b/c increasing from prior. Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Mar) 52.2 (Prey. 52.6); 6-month low. (Newswires) Chinese Caixin Composite PMI (Mar) 52.1 (Prey. 52.6); 6-month low. PBoC refrained from conducting open market operations for the 8th consecutive day. Top Asian News Mobius Says China Stocks Are Too Expensive After Tech-Led Surge Hongqiao Tycoon Sought China Help on Auditor Talks, Short Seller Yum China 1Q Rev. Beats Est.; Shares Rise South Korea Tests Long-Range Ballistic Missile, Yonhap Reports ADB Keeps 2017 Growth Forecast for Developing Asia at 5.7% Japan Stocks to Watch: Yamato, McDonald’s, Honda Motor, Toyota China Bear Has Change of Heart on Bet for New Business Cycle Yes, Axis Bank Shares Overshoot Analyst Targets; Hedging Cheap European equities initially traded with a risk-off bias following the decline in US and Asian bourses after the FOMC minutes showed that members were concerned over the strength in stock markets as some participants viewed equity prices as "quite high". While the minutes also showed that officials were split on whether higher inflation warranted faster hikes now or a more gradual pace. As such, financial names have been hardest hit across Europe, while the weakness in crude futures has weighed on the energy sector. The flight to quality trade has been felt in credit markets, with bond yields trending lower this morning. However, the gains in Eurozone bond prices have been curbed by supply from Spain and France. In terms of how the supply was digested, both were received well by the market with French paper managing to survive any political concerns in the region as the usual buyers managed to step up to the plate as expected. Top European News: German Factory Orders Recover as Economic Momentum Strong EU Steelmakers Win 5-Year Tariffs on Chinese Hot-Rolled Coil These ’Anomalous’ Spreads Show the ECB Distorting Bond Markets Vlieghe Says Faster U.K. Inflation Alone Won’t Nudge Him to Hike Seadrill at Mercy of Day Traders as Biggest Funds Dump Stock German Banks Call for ECB to Scale Back Bond Purchases This Year Vivendi Said to Seek Two-Thirds of Telecom Italia Board Seats Amundi Sees Stock Bulls Return to Europe as France Concerns Fade PPG May ‘Slightly’ Increase Its Bid for Akzo Nobel, KBC Says In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1 percent at 10:45 a.m. in London following a 0.1 percent drop Wednesday. The euro erased earlier gains to trade little changed. The South African rand regained some ground after recent declines to trade 0.1 percent higher. USD/JPY has again tested down into the low 110.00's, but we continue to run into buyers ahead the figure, and will likely do so as long as the key 10yr yield holds off 2.30%. This will rest on Wall Street to a notable degree, with European bourses modestly lower so far this morning. We have also seen EUR/JPY dip under 118.00 again, but the recovery looks temporary as does the pullback off the EUFt/USD lows this morning, where sub 1.0650 has been retested. We have the ECB inutes later today, but president Draghi has already reassured the market that there further evidence/confidence required before altering the current monetary policy stance, but the EUR dip was short lived. This impact on EUR/GBP also, testing down to 0.8500 but holding off the figure and rebounding sharply to suggest some sizeable buy orders ahead. Cable is caught between 1.2400 and 1.2500 as a result, but the tight trade in GBP near term is perhaps also reflective of the lack of gauge in UK-EU negotiations to come. In commodities, WTI crude erased an earlier drop to trade little changed at $51.17 a barrel; data on Wednesday showed U.S. output rose for a seventh week and inventories expanded to a fresh record. Gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,253.38 an ounce. Commodity markets have much to contend with amid the political backdrop, heightened by the meeting between respective presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. Nevertheless, fresh hopes of Chinese demand continue to bolster base metals near term, with Copper edging higher but tentatively so as USD2.70 nears. On the day, Zinc is outperforming, but few specific drivers to point to with the overhang of the 'above. Oil prices have managed to stabilise after the surprise DoE build reported yesterday, having dipped below USD51.00. A tentative recovery as yet. Precious metals continue to move with Treasuries, and in line with this, risk sentiment adds some support which ties in with the dip in US yields. Looking at the day ahead, we will get the latest ECB minutes followed by US data which includes the latest weekly initial jobless claims report. The other important event today is the earlier mentioned meeting between President Trump and China President Xi Jinping. US Event Calendar 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -40.0% 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 250,000, prior 258,000 8:30am: Continuing Claims, est. 2.03m, prior 2.05 9:30am: Fed’s Williams Speaks on a Panel in Frankfurt 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 49.7 DB's Jim Reid summaries the overnight wrap Where did it all go wrong for US equities last night after a strong session before the last 2 hours? Well the FOMC minutes and comments from House Speaker Ryan seemed to turn a +0.76% gain to a closing -0.31% loss in the S&P 500. The sections of the minutes that concerned the market were “some participants viewed equity prices as quite high relative to standard valuation measures” and also that “prices of other risk assets, such as emerging market stocks, high yield corporate bonds, and commercial real estate, had also risen significantly in recent months”. The more talked about subject in the market leading into the minutes was what Fed officials were thinking about the balance sheet debate. The minutes revealed that “provided that the economy continued to perform about as expected, most participants anticipated that gradual increases in the federal funds rate would continue and judged that a change to the committee’s reinvestment policy would likely be appropriate later this year”. Meanwhile the discussion around fiscal policy suggested that stimulus expectations have been pushed out by some officials to 2018 which matches what the Fed’s Evans had said last week. Indeed the minutes showed that “participants continued to underscore the considerable uncertainty about the timing and nature of potential changes to fiscal policies as well as the size of the effects of such changes on economic activity”. The text then went on to say that “however, several participants now anticipated that meaningful fiscal stimulus would likely not begin until 2018” and that in light of this “about half of the participants did not incorporate explicit assumptions about fiscal policies in their projections”. Meanwhile the Ryan comments emerged in a Reuters article in which he was quoted as saying that tax reforms will take longer to accomplish than the repeal and replacement of Obamacare. Ryan also said that “the House has a (tax reform) plan but the Senate doesn’t quite have one yet” and “so even the three entities aren’t on the same page yet”. Separate to this Ryan also confirmed that the House will not reach a deal on healthcare before the start of the two week break with a Congressman official also confirming that “we are going to go home tomorrow without a deal”. Treasury yields had topped out at 2.382% for the 10y just prior to the minutes and Ryan comments yesterday before falling sharply into the close to end the day down 2.5bps at 2.336%. It was a similar story at the front end too with 2y yields ending the day down 1.8bps at 1.236%. The Dollar index finished more or less unchanged after paring a move higher of as much as +0.30% while Gold bounced all the way back after being down as much as -1.00%. The other big mover in the commodity complex was Oil where WTI Oil had at one stage traded as high as $51.88/bbl and over +1.50% higher intraday. However the latest EIA data revealed that crude stockpiles rose to another record high last week which sent Oil prices sharply lower with WTI back below $51/bbl this morning. Today the focus turns to President Trump’s two-day meeting with China President Xi Jingping at Trump’s estate in Florida. There don’t appear to be any scheduled press conferences just yet but it’s worth keeping an eye on the headlines as the next two days progress. Clearly North Korea will be a subject near to the top of the agenda. Importantly though the meeting is the start of a new China-US bilateral relationship so the rhetoric which follows from the leaders will be closely scrutinised and debated one would imagine. Ahead of that markets in Asia this morning appear to be largely following the lead from that weaker momentum into the Wall Street close last night. The Nikkei (-1.40%) has been the big mover this morning, not helped by a slightly stronger Yen (which has touched the highest since mid-November), while the Hang Seng (-0.50%), ASX (-0.62%) and Kospi (-0.53%) are also down. Bourses in China are however flat as we go to print. That is despite the Caixin PMI in China falling 0.4pts to 52.2 in March and the lowest level since September. US equity futures are also currently in the red. Moving on. While the FOMC minutes and Ryan comments largely dominated the focus for markets yesterday there was also some important data to digest. Indeed helping to support the initial positive sentiment in markets was the March ADP employment report which revealed a significant 263k gain in private payrolls. That was well above the consensus forecast for 185k and although there was a 53k downward revision to the February reading the three month average has still risen to a healthy 259k which paints a positive picture ahead of payrolls tomorrow. In contrast there was some disappointment in the ISM non-manufacturing print for last month which declined 2.4pts at the headline to 55.2 (vs. 57.0 expected) and the lowest since October while the final services PMI was also revised down 0.1pts to 52.8. In the details of the former the employment component tumbled 3.6pts to 51.6 which is actually the lowest reading since August while new orders dipped 2.3pts, albeit to a still solid 58.9. Over in Europe the main focus was also on the final PMI revisions. The final services reading for the Euro area was revised down half a point to 56.0 which as a result saw the composite scaled back 0.3pts to 56.4. That softer services reading was largely as a result of a 1pt downward revision in France to 57.5 with Germany left unchanged at 55.6. In Italy the services PMI declined 1.5pts to 52.9 (vs. 54.3 expected) while in Spain the PMI came in at 57.4 and marginally down on February. All told our economists in Europe noted that notwithstanding the slight retreat in the reading the Euro area PMIs still suggest clear upside to their moderate growth forecasts in Q1. Indeed they note that the data points to growth of 0.6% to 0.7% qoq versus their 0.3% to 0.4% projection which reflects more mixed hard data of late. For completeness the services PMI in the UK yesterday was solid at 55.0 for March which represents an uplift of 1.7pts. That helped the FTSE 100 to close up +0.13% while the Stoxx 600 finished +0.02% after paring gains into the close. Staying with Europe for a second, it’s worth noting the comments from ECB Governing Council member Weidmann yesterday. In an interview with Die Zeit, Weidmann said that it is getting closer to a time when the ECB should “not have the foot pressed down on the gas pedal, but to lift it slightly”. The article also suggested that Weidmann would welcome bond purchases stopping in one year and that the economic recovery in the Euro area is robust and will continue. So fairly hawkish, although not too dissimilar to the timing implied by the ECB. Interestingly there was no comment or mention about depo policy which has been more topical of late. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe it’s fairly quiet with factory orders data in Germany the only release of note. ECB President Draghi is also due to speak in Frankfurt at 8am BST when he makes opening remarks at the annual ‘ECB and its Watchers Conference’ so that might be worth keeping an eye on. The ECB’s Praet will also speak at the event as will the Fed’s Williams at 2.30pm BST. Away from that we will then get the latest ECB minutes just after midday followed by US data which includes the latest weekly initial jobless claims report. The other important event today is the earlier mentioned meeting between President Trump and China President Xi Jinping.
Главные новости- Представитель ФРС Харкер (скорее ястреб с правом голоса) ожидает еще два повышения ставки в этом году, но, по его мнению, нет аргументов для еще одного повышения ставки уже на следующем заседании. Он не ожидает резкого прекращения практики реинвестирования портфеля ФРС. Предпочел бы в большей степени сокращать портфель Treasuries, нежели портфель обеспеченных ипотекой бумаг (MBS). - Представитель ФРС Дадли (скорее голубь с правом голоса) заявил, что прогнозные материалы ФРС по ставкам являются прогнозами, а не обязательствами. - Аналитический отчет ФРБ Сан-Франциско заключил, что ставки имеют более значимое влияние на экономику, чем ранее предполагалось и “даже небольшой цикл ужесточения может произвести существенное воздействие”. - ЕС считает переговоры по превентивной рекапитализации итальянских банков Popolare Vicenza и Veneto Banca конструктивными, ожидает решения “в течение ближайших недель”. ЕЦБ видит необходимость в наращивании капитала на 6.4 млрд. евро. - Бундесбанк и германский регулятор BaFin проведут стресс-тесты более чем 1500 мелких германских банков в ближайшие месяцы. - Помощь от фондов ЕС для Греции составила более чем 10 млрд. евро с июля 2015 года, или 6% греческого ВВП, сообщает Bild. - Продажи автомобилей в США в марте упали сильнее, чем ожидалось, с 17.47 млн. в год до 16.53 млн. в год (прогноз 17.3 млн.) - ЦБ Австралии оставил ставку неизменной на уровне 1.5%, как и ожидалось.Источник: FxTeam
Банки, желающие покинуть Лондон из-за Brexit, уже ведут переговоры о переезде во Франкфурт, но им не будут предложены какие-либо особые условия, сообщил Reuters член правления центрального банка Германии (Бундесбанк).
Банки, желающие покинуть Лондон из-за Brexit, уже ведут переговоры о переезде во Франкфурт, но им не будут предложены какие-либо особые условия, сообщил Reuters член правления центрального банка Германии (Бундесбанк).
Источник 03.03.2017 9 февраля 2017 г. немецкий Бундесбанк опубликовал обновление по своей крайне затянувшейся программе репатриации золота, где заявляется о транспортировке в 2016 г. в Германию 111 т золота из Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка и еще 105 т из Банка Франции в Париже. (См. детали о ситуации с немецким золотом на
The week ahead sees focus in Europe turn back to the French elections with the first presidential debate coming up on Monday, while in the US we get plenty of Fedspeak to parse, including from Chair Yellen. On the US economic docket, the key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday. The UK also remains on the radar, with an important data week ahead bringing updates on inflation and retail sales, and also bringing us one week closer to the triggering of A50, which will be done on March 29. In G10 Central Banks, only the RBNZ coming up, which we expect to remain on hold, despite Q4 GDP significantly disappointing their forecast. Elsewhere: There will be monetary policy meetings in Russia, Colombia, Taiwan and The Philippines. We forecast Colombia's Banrep to cut 25bp. Rating reviews in Saudi Arabia and Georgia. In the US, the main focus will be on durable goods as well as a host of Fed speakers including NY Fed President Dudley and Chair Yellen. We also get existing & new home sales and the current account balance. In the Eurozone, focus is back on PMIs, where we expect a marginal decrease. Recent data continue to reflect a disconnect between 'soft' survey data and 'hard 'activity data. We also get the final TLTRO II announcement, where we expect a large take-up. Lastly, there is also a Eurogroup meeting where Greece will be discussed among other things. A busy data week for the UK, with inflation and retail sales the main focus, though we also get public finances data, which should be of little interest given the recent Budget . In Japan, a light calendar ahead - trade balance, BoJ minutes and BoJ's Funo on the agenda. In Canada the main data releases are inflation and retail sales. The week's daily breakdown courtesy of DB's Jim Reid: It looks set to be a fair bit quieter this week. The lone data in Europe this morning is PPI in Germany while in the US the only data due is the Chicago Fed national activity index. On Tuesday the early focus is on the UK with both the February CPI/PPI/RPI prints and also the CBI trends orders data and public sector net borrowing data for last month. In the US we’ll get the current account balance reading. Kicking off Wednesday is Japan where the latest trade data is due. There is nothing of note in Europe on Wednesday while in the US we’ll get the FHFA house price index and February existing home sales. The diary is a bit busier on Thursday with various confidence readings due in France and Germany in the morning along with UK retail sales data for February. Over in the US we will then get new home sales, initial jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index. We end the week with what looks set to be the busiest day on Friday. In the morning we will get the flash March manufacturing PMI in Japan before we then get the flash manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s in Europe. France GDP will also be released. In the US we then end with preliminary February durable and capital goods orders and also the flash manufacturing PMI. Away from the data this week’s Fedspeak consists of Evans this evening, Dudley, George and Mester on Tuesday, Fed Chair Yellen on Thursday along with Kashkari and Kaplan, and then Evans on Friday along with Bullard. Bundesbank President Weidmann is also due to speak today and the ECB’S Lautenschlaeger on Thursday. The BoJ minutes from the January meeting are due out on Tuesday. Other events worth watching is the live televised debate between the French presidential candidates tonight and also the Euro area finance ministers meeting today, including a discussion on Greece. * * * Finally, here is a focus on just the US courtesy of Goldman Sachs: Monday, March 20 08:30 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Evans will discuss current economic conditions and monetary policy in a live TV interview on Fox Business News with Maria Bartiromo during “Mornings with Maria”. 01:10 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will give a speech at the New York National Association for Business Economics Luncheon in New York. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Tuesday, March 21 06:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will participate in a panel discussion with Bank of England Governor Carney on ethics and culture in banking at an event hosted by the BoE in London. 08:30 AM Current account balance, Q4 (consensus -$128.1bn, last -$113.0bn) 09:45 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will give a speech at the 12th Asia-Pacific High Level Meeting on banking supervision in Bali, Indonesia. 12:00 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give a speech on the US economic outlook and monetary policy at the Women in Housing and Finance luncheon in Washington D.C. Audience Q&A is expected. 06:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give a speech as part of the Robins School of Business Executive Speaker series at the University of Richmond. Wednesday, March 22 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, January (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%): Consensus expects the FHFA house price index to rise 0.4% in January, in line with the pace of growth in December. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices rose 6.2% in December. 10:00 AM Existing home sales, February (GS -3.0%, consensus -2.4%, last +3.3%): We look for a 3.0% decline in February existing homes sales, following last month’s 3.3% increase. Regional housing data released so far suggest a moderate slowdown in closed homes sales, consistent with the 2.8% drop in January pending homes sales (which represent contract signings), and we suspect some of this weakness reflects the impact of higher mortgage rates. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report. Thursday, March 23 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 18 (GS 235k, consensus 240k, last 241k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 11 (last 2,030k): We expect initial jobless claims to decline 6k to 235k, somewhat below its recent trend, reflecting some additional normalization in New York following several volatile weeks affected by the timing of school holidays. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – declined at its fastest pace since mid-January in the most recent report (30k to 2,030k), suggestive of additional labor market improvement. Lastly, we note the year-to-date improvement in several energy-producing states, where initial jobless claims increased modestly last week but remain at a low level. 08:45 AM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give opening remarks at the 2017 Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference in Washington D.C. No Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM New home sales, February (GS +3.0%, consensus +1.8%, last +3.7%): We expect new home sales to rise 3.0% in February, adding to the 3.7% increase last month, reflecting unseasonably warm weather and limited snowfall. We also expect a favorable fundamental backdrop and the elevated level of single-family building permits to mitigate the negative impact of higher mortgage rates on new homes sales activity. On the negative side, sales of new homes in the Northeast region appeared elevated in January and seem likely to retrench. 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +14.0, last +14.0) 12:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will give a speech on US education outcomes and achievement gaps at the 2017 Community Development Research Conference in Washington D.C. Media Q&A is expected. At the March FOMC meeting, President Kashkari was the one dissenter in the committee’s decision to raise the federal funds rate target. 07:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A session on “Tailwinds and Headwinds: The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Friday, March 24 08:00 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Evans will give opening remarks at the 2017 Community Development Research Conference in Washington D.C. 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, February preliminary (GS +2.0%, consensus +1.2%, last +2.0%): Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February preliminary (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.6%, last flat); Core capital goods orders, February preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.1%); Core capital goods shipments, February preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.1%, last -0.4%): We expect durable goods orders to rise 2.0%, driven by higher non-defense aircraft orders indicated by stronger company-reported data. We also believe the details of the report are likely to be strong, reflecting further improvement in manufacturing surveys, solid February industrial production data, encouraging commentary from industrial firms, and Chinese New Year effects that alone could add much as 1.4pp to core capital goods orders. Accordingly, we expect a 0.6% increase in core capital goods orders and a 0.7% increase in core capital goods shipments. We expect durable goods orders ex-transportation to rise 0.8%. 08:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speak: St. Louis Fed President Bullard will give a speech to the Economic Club of Memphis. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 08:30 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will participate in a discussion on a paper titled, "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest" at the Brookings Institution's Papers on Economic Activity spring conference. 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI, March preliminary (consensus 54.7, last 54.2) 10:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will take part in a fireside chat at York College with business and economics students. Audience Q&A is expected. Source: DB. BofA. GS
Global markets start the week mixed with Asian stocks rising (Japan was closed for holiday), European stocks sliding, weighed down by declines in oil-and-gas shares and banks, and S&P500 futures also down. The dollar fell to a six-week low, falling four days in a row for the first time since early November as G20 leaders scrap a long-standing commitment to reject all forms of trade protectionism, suggesting the "weak Dollar" camp in Trump's inner circle is winning. Equities retreated in Europe, Australia and New Zealand, as did S&P 500 Index futures. Japan’s stock market was closed Monday for a holiday. Indexes rose in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand. The Australian 10-year yield resumed a retreat after rising at the end of last week. The yen touched its strongest in three weeks, while the Korean won was the highest in five months. Oil fell for the ninth day in 11. "European equity markets have started the week with a heavy risk-off sentiment after the G20 communiqué explicitly reflected U.S. intentions to establish trade protectionist measures," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, told Reuters. "As the world's number one economy is preparing to set significant barriers against the world, investors are increasingly worried," she said. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose almost 0.4 percent to hit its highest level in more than two years on Monday. As a result, MSCI's global benchmark equity index was little changed. On Friday, Wall Street was flat to negative, dragged lower by bank shares that fell along with Treasury yields. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were down 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge rose 0.2 percent last week. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 0.2 percent. The FTSE 100 and Dax index were also both down 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index and South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.4 percent. The Hang Seng Index advanced 0.8 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index slid 1.4 percent, the most since November, dragged lower by Fletcher Building Ltd., which identified more expected losses in its construction division. For those readers who missed the weekend's big news, the G20 omitted a pledge to resist all forms of protectionism in its communique from its meeting in Germany over the weekend. That shift followed hours of wrangling that kept officials in suspense on whether the G-20 would even mention trade, with occasional doubts that a communique might be produced at all. Despite some modest weakness, global stocks are coming off their best week since January, even as the dollar has slumped 1.7% after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on March 15 yet didn’t accelerate the timeline for future tightening. The dollar index of its value against a basket of six currencies fell to a six-week low of 100.02 on Monday. It fell 0.2 percent against the yen before recovering to trade flat on the day at 112.70 yen JPY=D4, while the euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.0770 EUR=. Citi became the latest major bank to abandon its headline forecast for a fall in the euro to below parity with the dollar, upping its prediction for the single currency over the next six to 12 months to $1.04 from $0.98 previously. The dollar index of its value against a basket of six currencies fell to a six-week low of 100.02 on Monday. It fell 0.2 percent against the yen before recovering to trade flat on the day at 112.70 yen, while the euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.0770. Volatility remains low across markets from equities to currencies and fixed-income as investors strive to assess how sustainable the nascent global economic recovery is. As the chart below shows, following the recent volley of central bnk announcements, FX volatility has tumbled. The greenback extended its recent decline, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index touching its lowest level since November, pressured by investors who kept the latest bearish trend intact. A Japanese holiday and the previously noted Group-of-20 meeting that left most business unfinished suppressed flows in the major currencies; dropping a reference from the G-20 statement to resist trade protectionism weighed on the dollar, with macro and leveraged accounts adding to shorts positions, according to a London-based trader. Volumes were near the lowest they have been in March, a Europe-based trader noted. The Bloomberg dollar index, the BBDXY dropped, as much as 0.3% to 1223.95, lowest since Nov. 11, before paring decline; investors may look for guidance by speeches by Fed’s Dudley and Yellen expected later this week before meaningfully adjusting their current positioning. Currency markets will also be focused on a raft of speeches by Fed officials this week, including Chicago's Charles Evans on Tuesday and Friday, Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday, Dallas's Robert Kaplan and Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari on Friday and New York's William Dudley on Saturday. "Sentiment towards the dollar has deteriorated significantly," Societe Generale FX analysts said in a note to clients on Monday. In rates, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen around 10 basis points below 2.50 percent since the Fed raised rates last week for only the third time in over a decade. The gap between two- and 10-year yields has shrunk, meaning the yield curve has flattened. This suggests investors are skeptical growth and inflation will be strong enough to warrant a sustained cycle of rate hikes, and has subsequently weighed on the dollar. In commodities, oil prices continued their downward trend as OPEC supplies remained steady despite touted cuts and rising U.S. drilling contributed to concerns about a supply glut. U.S. crude dropped 1% to $48.29 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent fell 0.7% to $51.40. The weaker dollar boosted gold which rose 0.4 percent at $1,233 an ounce, after touching a two-week high earlier in the session. Bulletin Headline summary from RanSquawk European equities trade modestly lower so far, with Deutsche Bank weighing on the financial sector has they begin their capital raising FX price action has been relatively muted amid light newsflow, while oil trades lower after lEA's Birol highlighted an increase in US oil output Highlights include, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Bundesbank Report and comments from Fed's Evans and BoE's Haldane. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,371.00 MXAP up 0.2% to 148.64 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 481.53 Nikkei down 0.4% to 19,521.59 Topix down 0.4% to 1,565.85 Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 24,501.99 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,250.81 Sensex down 0.5% to 29,516.48 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 5,778.91 Kospi down 0.4% to 2,157.01 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 377.86 German 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.44% Euro up 0.3% to 1.0766 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.4% to $51.58/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 2.357% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 1.886% Brent Futures down 0.4% to $51.58/bbl Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,233.53 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 100.15 Top Overnight News via BBG German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for a concerted effort to defend free trade, expanding the list of economic powers joining together to counter the U.S. shift toward protectionism Money managers cut bets on rising West Texas Intermediate crude by a record amount during the week ended March 14, while wagers on a further price drop doubled as oil remained below $50 a barrel Deutsche Bank to Raise $8.6 Billion After Pricing Share Sale Deutsche Bank Says Revenue to Stay ‘Broadly Flat’ This Year Cerberus-Backed Albertsons Said to Consider Merger With Sprouts Blackstone Venture Acquires $1.4 Billion of Hansteen Properties Hansteen Rises to Highest in 10 Years on Blackstone Asset Sale Alphapharm Begins Recall of Epipen Auto-Injector in Australia Ford’s Lincoln to Offer Its First Hybrid Model in China Arconic Reports Multi-Year Deal Supply With Toyota North America FDA Investigating Rate of Cardiac Events With Abbott’s BVS Cognizant Said to Likely Fire Over 6,000 Employees, ET Now Says In Asian markets, stocks traded mixed amid a lack of key drivers and with Japanese trade closed for the Spring Equinox public holiday, while ASX 200 (-0.5%) was led lower by telecoms and profit-taking in gold related stocks. China was positive with Hang Seng (+0.7%) the outperformer after a firm liquidity injection of CNY 100bIn by the PBoC and as participants digested earnings releases, while Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) lagged after Chinese property prices continued to surge with Bejing prices up over 20% Y/Y, which could essentially attract funds away from stocks. Elsewhere, US equity futures were pressured and broke below Friday's lows, while Nikkei 225 remained shut due to the public holiday. Chinese Property Prices (Feb) Y/Y 11.8% (Prey. 12.2%). PBoC injected CNY 60bIn in 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bIn in 28-day reverse repos. Top Asian News Risk Appetite Goes Missing as Asia Starts the Week: Markets Wrap Yellen’s Shadow Looms Large Over China Central Bank Policy Selling Dollars Is Becoming The New Trump Trade: Markets Live Meitu Erases 28% Surge as Shares Seen Volatile Before Earnings China Said to Temporarily Suspend Beef Imports From Brazil Hong Kong Stocks Extend Weekly Rally as Shenhua Jumps on Payout Credit Suisse Co-Head of Asia Cash Equities Lee Said to Leave Malaysia Should Improve ‘Fragmented’ Military, Honeywell Says Morgan Stanley Said to Lose Second Senior M&A Banker in Asia European bourses have kicked off the week in tentative fashion with the calendar looking somewhat light. EU bourses are trading with minor losses amid slight weakness in the financial sector with Deutsche Bank commencing their EUR 8bIn capital raising plan, while UBS are set to go on trial in their tax case in France. Elsewhere, Vodafone initially saw telecoms as the only sector in the green after agreeing to merge their Indian unit with Idea Cellular, however with Co. shares paring the initial upside amid suggestions that the merger may struggle to pass through regulatory requirements. Price action in fixed income markets has been somewhat contained with Bunds only modestly lower, with slight underperformance observed in the belly of the curve. Ahead of the French TV debate in the presidential race, OATs had been underperforming for much of the morning with the German/French spread widening the most in 2 weeks. Top European News Deutsche Bank Says DoJ Closed Criminal Inquiry in FX Matter Merkel, Abe Call for EU-Japan Deal to Stem Trade Barriers Visco Says ECB Could Shorten Break Between QE Exit And Rate Hike Atos Denies Worldline Preparing Ingenico Bid, Reuters Says Hugo Boss Drops After Report Frere’s GBL Isn’t Shareholder Ingenico Rises After La Lettre Report Worldline Preparing Bid Troim’s Borr Buys Transocean’s Jack-Up Fleet for $1.35 Billion Paris Climate Accord Could Make the World $19 Trillion Richer Vodafone, Idea Agree on Merger to Create India Mobile Leader In currencies, the yen was little changed at 112.74 per dollar as of 8:26 a.m. in London after reaching its strongest since Feb. 28. The euro climbed 0.3 percent to $1.0769, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. The British pound gained 0.2 percent. The South Korean won jumped 1 percent to its highest since Oct. 20, leading gains in emerging Asian markets. The baht also reached its strongest level since October. The USD-index continues to weakn post the G20 meeting as finance leaders caved into pressure from the US and scrapped a commitment to reject all forms of trade protectionism. As such, the pullback in the greenback has supported its major counterparts, with GBP making a break above 1.2400. Additionally, from a UK stand point reports report have been circulating that PM May's closest have been calling for a potential snap election on May 4th in order to take seats from the SNP and reduce the likelihood of a second Scottish referendum. Another thing to keep an eye out for will be the French Election TV debate scheduled at 1900GMT, consequently, price action in EUR could be somewhat tame throughout the day, as has been the case so far, with the notable data of the morning coming I the form of Eurozone labour cost index, which was in line with Exp. ECB's Visco (Dove) said that deflation risk seems to have passed and that the ECB could shorten the time gap between exit from QE and first rate hike. In commodities, another rise in oil rigs continues to put the pressure on crude prices as WTI looks to test USD 48 to the downside, while lEA's Birol added to these concerns having noted that he expects a major boom in US oil output and shale gas volumes. Elsewhere, copper will be in focus after labour unions at Chile's Escondida mine slams new offer from management. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 0.7 percent to $48.42 a barrel. It has dropped 10 percent this month, heading for the steepest one-month slide since July. Gold rose 0.3 percent to $1,232.97 an ounce, climbing for a fourth day. Base metals fell on the London Metal Exchange, with copper forwards down 0.2 percent and tin retreating 0.3 percent. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.03, prior -0.05 * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Markets look set to be a little less interesting than my bedroom arrangements this week with perhaps the highlights being lots of Fed speakers, the first televised French Presidential debate tonight and the flash global PMIs on Friday. The Fed speakers will likely reinforce the message from the FOMC but watch for signs of increased confidence in their outlook. The French debates might start to lead to some bigger moves in the polls which have been relatively steady of late. As for the PMIs, volatility has been very subdued in the face of high political uncertainty due to continued strong data, especially survey data so the flash PMIs are often the best real time update of the global economic pulse. Over the weekend the G-20 meeting ended with the "resist all forms of protectionism" line dropped from the previous communiqué. The US were the stumbling block but it's still early days in the new Trump administration so for now it seems that markets will wait and see before becoming too scared by the implications. Indeed the more significant meeting may be the G-20 meeting in Hamburg in July by which time some of that uncertainty around the new US administration may have started to clear up. Aside from that the rest of the weekend news has been fairly light. The general view of the meeting between President Trump and Chancellor Merkel was that it was inconclusive with the President also tweeting after that “Germany owes vast sums of money to NATO and the United States must be paid for the powerful, and very expensive, defence it provides to Germany”. Over in markets there hasn’t been too much a reaction to the weekend headlines with bourses generally mixed in Asia, albeit with fairly modest moves. Indices in China are little changed while the Kospi (-0.52%) and ASX (-0.47%) are down. The Hang Seng (+0.53%) is up however and in doing so has passed the 24,000 level for the first time since 2015. Elsewhere, US equity index futures are down about -0.20% while in FX the USD is a smidgen weaker. Staying in Asia, there was also some data released in China over with the weekend with the release of the February house prices data. For new homes excluding subsidized housing, prices were reported as rising in 56 out of the 70 major cities which compares to 45 cities in January. It’s worth noting that Beijing’s municipal government on Friday increased the down payment requirement on second homes by 10% in an attempt to cool prices. The maximum length of a mortgage was also cut to 25 years from 30 years. The relatively quiet start this morning follows Friday’s session in which markets appeared to run out of steam following a packed week. That was certainly the case for equity markets where the S&P 500 closed with a modest -0.13% loss and so capping the weekly return at +0.24%. In Europe the Stoxx 600 did however end +0.16% despite Banks underperforming and so making the weekly return a solid +1.36%. Last week’s winner was EM however with the MSCI EM index rising every day last week, including a +0.25% gain on Friday, to finish +4.26% for the week and the strongest week since July last year. Meanwhile, over in bond markets and following those Nowotny comments late on Thursday suggesting that the ECB could raise the deposit rate before the main refinancing rate and also prior to QE ending, the front end of the Bund curve saw yields tick higher, with 2y yields up 1.8bps to -0.792% and to the highest since February 6th. 10y and 30y Bund yields on the other hand finished 1.4bps and 3.1bps lower. Our European fixed income strategy team highlighted in their weekly on Friday that the market is now pricing a significant probability of a oneoff hike in the deposit facility rate. They note that a 10bp hike is priced by Jan-18, a 15bp hike by May-18 and a 20bp hike by Aug-18. Indeed they believe that the sequencing of the ECB’s easing decisions since the start of QE suggests that a one-off hike in the deposit rate is likely, however at the same time could present some communication challenges highlighted by the steepening of the money market curve in the recent repricing of the timing of the first 10-20bp move in Eonia rates. Elsewhere 10y Treasury yields retraced much of the previous day’s move by falling 4bps to 2.501%. The Fed’s Kashkari spoke – who as a reminder was the lone dissenter at the FOMC vote last week – and said that relatively little change in recent data and his belief that the job market slack remains tilted his vote towards favouring not raising rates. While there wasn’t much particularly going on in markets, Friday was however another busy session for data releases in the US. The most anticipated was the February industrial production report which came in a little disappointing with production flat during the month versus expectations for a +0.2% mom rise, while capacity utilization also ticked down one-tenth to 75.4%. Manufacturing production did however rise +0.5% mom during the month and matching consensus. Away from that the first look at the March University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading revealed a 1.3pt rise in the headline sentiment reading to 97.6 (vs. 97.0 expected). Most notable in the details was the 3pt rise in the current conditions index to a new high of 114.5. The expectations component on the other hand rose a much more modest 0.2pts to 86.7 while both 1y and 5-10y inflation expectations fell three-tenths each to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively. The other data out on Friday was the conference board’s leading index which rose +0.6% mom in February and the labour market conditions index which strengthened by 1.3 index points in February. All told the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP tracker remains unchanged at 0.9%. That continues to fly in the face of the NY Fed model which, while revised down 0.4% last week, still sits at 2.8%. Over to this week’s calendar now where, after all the excitement last week, it looks set to be a fair bit quieter this week. The lone data in Europe this morning is PPI in Germany while in the US the only data due is the Chicago Fed national activity index. On Tuesday the early focus is on the UK with both the February CPI/ PPI/RPI prints and also the CBI trends orders data and public sector net borrowing data for last month. In the US we’ll get the current account balance reading. Kicking off Wednesday is Japan where the latest trade data is due. There is nothing of note in Europe on Wednesday while in the US we’ll get the FHFA house price index and February existing home sales. The diary is a bit busier on Thursday with various confidence readings due in France and Germany in the morning along with UK retail sales data for February. Over in the US we will then get new home sales, initial jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index. We end the week with what looks set to be the busiest day on Friday. In the morning we will get the flash March manufacturing PMI in Japan before we then get the flash manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s in Europe. France GDP will also be released. In the US we then end with preliminary February durable and capital goods orders and also the flash manufacturing PMI. Away from the data this week’s Fedspeak consists of Evans this evening, Dudley, George and Mester on Tuesday, Fed Chair Yellen on Thursday along with Kashkari and Kaplan, and then Evans on Friday along with Bullard. Bundesbank President Weidmann is also due to speak today and the ECB’S Lautenschlaeger on Thursday. The BoJ minutes from the January meeting are due out on Tuesday. Other events worth watching is the live televised debate between the French presidential candidates tonight and also the Euro area finance ministers meeting today, including a discussion on Greece.
After delays and hours of discussions amid tensions over 'trade' comments between the United States and the rest of The G-20, it appears President Trump has 'won'. While China was "adamantly against" protectionism, the finance ministers end talks without renewing their long-standing commitment to free trade and rejection of protectionism after US opposition. The world's financial leaders are unlikely to endorse free trade and reject protectionism in their communique on Saturday because they have been unable to find a wording that would suit a more protectionist United States, G20 officials said. This would break with a decade-old tradition among the finance ministers and central bankers of the world's 20 top economies (G20), who over the years have repeatedly rejected protectionism and endorsed free trade. But the new administration in the United States is considering trade measures to curb imports with a border tax and would not agree to repeat the formulations used by previous G20 communiques, clashing with China and Europe, the officials said. "Unless there is a last minute miracle, there is no agreement on trade," one official, who declined to be named, told Reuters. "This is not a good outcome of the meeting," a G20 delegate quoted Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann as saying. In a partial face-saving move, as The FT details, G20 finance ministers meeting in the German resort town of Baden-Baden noted the importance of trade to the global economy, but dropped tougher language from last year that vowed to “resist all forms of protectionism”. The new communique said: “We are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies. We will strive to reduce excessive global imbalances, promote greater inclusiveness and fairness and reduce inequality in our pursuit of economic growth.” The watered-down commitments on free trade reflected the anti-globalisation mood that Donald Trump has brought to Washington and came in the first G20 meetings between Steven Mnuchin, the new US Treasury Secretary, and his foreign counterparts. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin spoke to reporters after the meeting: *MNUCHIN: LOOKING FORWARD TO WORKING CLOSELY W/ G-20 COLLEAGUES *MNUCHIN: CONFIDENT U.S. CAN WORK CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH PARTNERS *MNUCHIN: U.S. BELIEVES IN FREE, BALANCED TRADE *MNUCHIN SAYS WILL LOOK AT TRADE SURPLUSES WITH VIEW TO CORRECT *MNUCHIN SAYS MULTILATERAL AGREEMENTS HAVE VERY IMPORTANT PLACE *MNUCHIN SAYS U.S. WANTS TO RE-EXAMINE TRADE DEALS INCL. NAFTA *MNUCHIN: U.S. BELIEVES IN APPROPRIATE REGULATION *MNUCHIN SAYS IMPORTANT BANKS CAN PROVIDE LIQUIDITY IN MARKETS Reuters also points out another potential win for Trump as the communique will also drop a reference, used by the G20 last year, on the readiness to finance climate change as agreed in Paris in 2015 because of opposition from the United States and Saudi Arabia. Trump has called global warming a "hoax" concocted by China to hurt U.S. industry and vowed to scrap the Paris climate accord aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Trump's administration on Thursday proposed a 31 percent cut to the Environmental Protection Agency's budget as the White House seeks to eliminate climate change programs and trim initiatives to protect air and water quality. Asked about climate change funding, Mick Mulvaney, Trump's budget director, said on Thursday, "We consider that to be a waste of money." The G20 do agree, however, to show continuity in their foreign exchange policies, using phrases from the past on foreign exchange markets. As we noted earlier, needless to say, such an acrimonous end to the weekend's summit would likely result in a surge in FX volatility when markets open for trading late on Sunday, reflecting the new state of global trade flux, in which the future of the US Dollar is completely unknown, and reflecting the emerging chaos over the future parameters of trade.
Having surged after The Fed hiked rates 'dovishly', EURUSD is surging- bouncing off 1.07 the figure - after ECB Council member Nowotny told Handelsblatt that a "rate increase may be on the way." The European Central Bank (ECB) could be heading away from loose monetary policy in a different manner than the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ewald Nowotny, the Austrian ECB council member, told Handelsblatt in an exclusive interview. The American model was to finish bond purchases first, but this model might not transfer well to Europe, said Mr. Nowotny, who also serves as the Austrian National Bank governor. All interest rates also wouldn’t have to be increased simultaneously nor to the same extent, he added. “The ECB could also raise the deposit rate earlier than the prime rate,” Mr. Nowotny said. While this may be nothing more than a market-reaction gauging trial balloon, what was more interesting in the German report, is that it suggests in 2019 none other than Europe's uberhawk (if only on paper) Jens Weidmann may replace Mario Draghi. On the topic of the succession of ECB President Mario Draghi, whose term expires in 2019, Mr. Nowotny said that decisions were being made “in the political sphere,” and they were out of the hands of the central bank chiefs. Mr. Nowotny said he assumes that it will be a selection process between the most qualified. When it comes to the most likely picks, Germany’s central bank president Jens Weidmann and his French colleague François Villeroy de Galhau rank up there, “no doubt about it,” Mr. Nowotny said. Jens Weidmann is a “highly valued colleague,” Mr. Nowotny said, and the Austrian National Bank has very close relations with the German central bank, the Bundesbank As a result, EURUSD's early weakness is erased. Bund Futures are under pressure on the news (as the TSY-Bund spread narrows).. Selling Bunds, Buying Treasuries
Agreement has been reached on most German concerns, but the level of output floors is still key, says the Deutsche Bundesbank official
Паника вокруг будущего единой валюты нарастает, а крупнейшая экономика Еврозоны между тем без лишнего шума удваивает объем денежной массы в евро. Центробанк Германии является крупнейшим эмитентом бумажных денег валютного союза. Бундесбанк напечатал больше банкнот и монет, находящихся сейчас в обращении, чем все остальные ЦБ Еврозоны вместе взятые. Этот дисбаланс хорошо прослеживается в свежей статистике, опубликованной Европейским центральным банком. Она отражает вклад различных стран в рамках консолиди читать далее…
Мир теряет веру в доллар как в самую надежную валюту. Волна недоверия поднялась после того, как Немецкий федеральный банк потребовал репатриации огромного количества золота, хранящегося в Федеральной резервной системе США. Некоторые обеспокоены тем, что национальные вклады других стран не будут в безопасности в США. Да и находятся ли они там вообще? Подробности в репортаже корреспондента RT Гаяне Чичакян. Подписывайтесь на RT Russian - http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=rtrussian RT на русском - http://russian.rt.com/ Vkontakte - http://vk.com/rt_russian Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/RTRussian Twitter - http://twitter.com/RT_russian Livejournal - http://rt-russian.livejournal.com/
О GATA и «золотом картеле» Еще в конце ХХ века наиболее въедливые эксперты стали подозревать, что на рынке золота происходит что-то неладное. А именно: даже если жёлтый металл не дешевеет, то цены на него всё равно отстают по темпам роста от динамики цен на многие другие товары мирового рынка. Золото дешевело также на фоне индексов фондовых рынков, цен на недвижимость и т.п. Никаких крупных месторождений золота в это время не было открыто, золотые метеориты на Землю не падали. Заниженные цены на желтый металл больно били по компаниям золотодобывающей промышленности. Представители нескольких компаний этой отрасли решили разобраться в загадке, для чего и создали организацию под названием GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action). В буквальном переводе - «Действие против Золотого Треста». Как следует из названия, учредители GATA подозревали, что на мировом рынке золота действует группа злоумышленников, объединенных в трест, который манипулирует ценами на золото в сторону их занижения. В своих публикациях GATA чаще использовала термин «золотой картель». Постепенно удалось вычислить основных участников этого картеля. Среди них - Казначейство США, Федеральный резервный банк Нью-Йорка (главный из 12 федеральных банков, составляющих ФРС США), Банк Англии, ряд крупнейших коммерческих и инвестиционных банков США и Западной Европы (здесь особо выделяется «Голдман Сакс» - инвестиционный банк с Уолл-стрит). Это – ядро картеля. Время от времени в поле зрения GATA попадали и другие организации, участвовавшие в операциях картеля. В том числе центральные банки некоторых стран. 1990-е годы были периодом наибольшей активности США на мировых рынках активов. Проще говоря, американцы организовывали приватизации государственных предприятий по всему миру (в том числе в России), а для таких операций нужен был сильный доллар. Финансовые аналитики и спекулянты прекрасно знают простое правило: чем ниже цена на золото, тем крепче доллар. Самый простой и дешевый способ укрепить доллар – «прижать» цену на «желтый металл», который явно и неявно выступает конкурентом этой резервной валюты. Однако чтобы «прижать» цену, надо обеспечить повышенное предложение этого металла на мировом рынке. У тех, кто хотел сыграть на «понижение» золота, взоры обратились к несметным запасам золота, сосредоточенным в подвалах казначейств и центральных банков. Эти запасы лежали там без движения с тех пор, как в 1970-е гг. рухнула Бреттон-Вудская валютно-финансовая система. В новой Ямайской валютно-финансовой системе золото перестало быть деньгами, оно было объявлено одним из биржевых товаров – таким как нефть, пшеница или бананы. Версия о золотых манипуляциях центральных банков Как можно использовать это золото для манипуляций ценами? Первое и главное условие сводится к тому, чтобы полностью засекретить официальные запасы желтого металла и все операции денежных властей с ними. Еще более повысить независимый статус центральных банков, для того чтобы «народные избранники», органы финансового контроля и прочие любопытствующие элементы не совали свои носы в дела этих институтов. Не допускать государственных аудиторов до «золотых закромов». В США, например, Главное контрольное управление (Счётная палата Конгресса) последний раз посещало главное хранилище официального золотого запаса США Форт Ноксболее 60 лет назад. Далее под завесой секретности можно начинать операции с золотом. Однако не продавать его, а передавать разным частным структурам «на время», оформляя эти операции как кредиты или лизинг желтого металла. А вместо золотых слитков оставлять в хранилищах бумажки, которые являются с бухгалтерско-юридической точки зрения «требованиями», «расписками», «сертификатами» и т.п. То есть золото на балансе центрального банка сохраняется, только оно имеет не металлическую, а виртуально-бумажную (или даже электронную) форму. А «народу» это знать не обязательно. Если в эти «золотые аферы» втянуть десяток-другой центральных банков, то каждый год на рынок можно выкидывать не одну сотню тонн драгоценного металла и сбивать на него цену. Эксперты (в том числе эксперты GATA) находили многочисленные подтверждения тому, что все это не вымысел, а результат преступного сговора центральных банков с частными банкирами и спекулянтами. И тут сразу возникают вопросы: кому центральные банки передавали золото? Было ли это золото возвращено назад в сейфы центральных банков? Известны ли эти махинации законодателям? Сколько на сегодняшний день реально осталось физического золота в хранилищах центральных банков (и государственных казначейств)? Отметим, что отдельные попытки разобраться в том, что представляют собой официальные золотые запасы, насколько официальная статистика золота отражает истинное положение дел, кто и как управляет официальным золотым запасом, предпринимались парламентариями, политиками, общественными активистами в разных странах. Например, в США такие попытки регулярно предпринимал член Конгресса США Рон Пол. Регулярные запросы в разные инстанции делала также GATA. Денежные власти предпочитали отмалчиваться. Или же ответы были крайне лаконичными и сводились к тому, что «золотой запас страны находится в неприкосновенности». Такую же позицию занимали на протяжении последних 15 лет (с тех пор, как начались разговоры о «золотом картеле») и международные финансовые организации: Банк международных расчетов (который, кстати, активно занимается операциями с желтым металлом и был заподозрен в участии в «золотом картеле»), Всемирный банк, Международный валютный фонд (1). Утечка информации из МВФ И вот последняя новость в этой области. Речь идет о материале, размещенном на сайте GATA в декабре 2012 года (2). Это полученное одним из экспертов GATA секретное исследование Международного валютного фонда 13-летней давности. Оно касается мирового рынка золота и роли центральных банков в операциях на этом рынке в 1999 году. Поскольку оно секретное, то его автор позволяет себе писать полную правду об операциях центральных банков. «Информация о рынке золота неоднородна», – говорится в исследовании. «Для транзакций характерна высокая степень секретности. Наряду с относительно небольшим количеством открытых торгов на биржах, продажи золота представляют собой приватные внебиржевые сделки, о таких операциях сообщается скупо. … Официальные данные о ссудах в золоте практически отсутствуют». Вот ключевые факты и цифры из этого материала МВФ. В 1999 годуболее 80 центральных банков ссудили 15 процентов официальных золотых запасов рынку (имеется в виду величина непогашенных обязательств по золотым кредитам). В числе центральных банков, предоставлявших ссуды в золоте, были Бундесбанк Германии, Швейцарский национальный банк, Банк Англии, Резервный банк Австралии и центральные банки Австрии, Португалии и Венесуэлы. В исследовании подтверждается, что центральные банки играли на рынке золота на «понижение»: «…высокая степень мобилизации резервов центробанка через кредитные операции в золоте оказала понижающее влияние на наличную цену золота, поскольку перекредитуемое золото обычно связано с продажами золота на наличном рынке». Далее в исследовании МВФ говорится, что «кредитование в золоте заставило центробанки проявлять активность на рынке производных финансовых инструментов золота, где участвуют банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами и производители золота, продавая золото через форвардные сделки и опционы. В свою очередь, банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами приложили все усилия для защиты и укрепления долгосрочных отношений с центральными банками». Вот еще выдержка из документа МВФ: «Доля промышленно развитых стран на всём рынке официального кредитования в золоте выросла с 33 процентов в конце 1995 года до 46 процентов к концу 1998 года, поскольку некоторые центральные банки промышленных стран повысили уровень кредитования; в то же время на рынке появились новые кредиторы, в частности Бундесбанк и Швейцарский национальный банк». А вот комментарий эксперта GATA, разместившего данный материал:«При столь значительном количестве центральных банков, секретно предоставляющих ссуды в золоте тем финансовым организациям, чей основной талант, как можно было видеть в последнее время, состоит в рыночных махинациях, кто станет отрицать, кроме обычных агентов дезинформации, что рынком золота манипулируют именно для того, чтобы не позволить всему миру пользоваться свободными рынками?» 2013 год: ждём новых «золотых» скандалов и «золотых» сенсаций Раскрытия страшной тайны золота ждут уже много лет. Ещё в 2004 году Лондонский банк Ротшильдов заявил о своем выходе из «золотого фиксинга» - процедуры ежедневного определения в узком кругу цены на жёлтый металл в лондонском Сити. Тем самым Ротшильды заявили миру, что они выходят из золотого бизнеса, которым занимались на протяжении двух столетий. Однако это – всего лишь эффектный жест. Из золотого бизнеса они не ушли, а продолжили заниматься им через структуры с другими вывесками. Чувствуя угрозу надвигающегося скандала с разоблачениями «золотого картеля», эти олигархические круги решили своевременно отойти от эпицентра возможного взрыва… Возбуждение общественности и политиков по поводу официальных запасов золота резко обострилось в 2012 году. Выяснилось, что на мировом рынке активно идет торговля фальшивым золотом в виде вольфрамовых позолоченных слитков (хотя специалистам об этом стало известно еще в 2004 году, трубить об этом мошенничестве мировые СМИ начали только в 2012 году). Возникли подозрения, что в подвалах центральных банков и казначейств находятся груды вольфрама. Рон Пол добился проведения выборочной проверки брусков металла в подвалах Форт-Нокс и Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка. Германия потребовала от США вернуть золото из своего официального запаса (Бундесбанк), которое хранилось в подвалах ФРБ Нью-Йорка, но встретила глухое сопротивление со стороны казначейства и ФРС США. Кончилось это тем, что председатель Федерального резерва Бен Бернанке заявил, что недавний ураган Сэнди… «уничтожил» немецкое золото. Ничего лучшего он придумать не смог. Все это лишь подкрепило мнение тех, кто давно обвиняет ФРС и другие центральные банки в мошенничестве с золотом. Думаю, что в 2013 г. тема золота центральных банков станет еще более горячей. Например, все с нетерпением ждут обнародования результатов выборочной физической проверки слитков золота из закромов Казначейства США. Власти обещали сообщить об этом в начале 2013 года. От Германии все напряженно ожидают реакции на заявление Бернанке о таинственном исчезновении немецкого золота. Появились вопросы и к Банку международных расчетов (БМР), активно практикующему коммерческие операции с желтым металлом - и собственным, и тем, который центральные банки предоставляют БМР в виде депозитов или кредитов. Отчётность БМР об этих операциях крайне лаконична и не даёт представления о деталях сделок, их контрагентах и конечных бенефициарах. Международный валютный фонд будет продолжать настойчиво требовать от Китая раскрытия истинной информации об официальном золотом запасе. В 2009 г. Народный банк Китая (НБК) сообщил, что его золотые запасы увеличились сразу на 76% и составили 1054 тонны. С тех пор официальные цифры золотого запаса НБК не менялись. Мало кто верит в то, что эти цифры отражают реальное положение дел. Считается, что денежные власти Китая сильно занижают цифры, тайно переводя часть своих несметных валютных резервов в желтый металл. В Конгрессе США ожидается окончательное решение вопроса о том, будет ли ФРС подвергнута серьезному аудиту - впервые за век ее существования. Если такой аудит всё-таки состоится, то полной проверке должны подвергнуться все операции Федерального резерва с золотом. Почти все серьезные эксперты ждут от этой проверки сенсационных разоблачений. (1) Подробнее о манипуляциях «золотого картеля» см.: В.Ю. Катасонов. Золото в экономике и политике России. – М.: Анкил, 2009, с. 57-63. (2) «IMF study in 1999 found 80 central banks lending 15% of official gold reserves». December 9, 2012 (http://www.gata.org/files/IMFGoldLendingFullStudy1999.pdf)