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23 февраля, 18:17

Бундесбанк: протекционизм США навредит Германии

Глава центрального банка ФРГ Йенс Вайдманн заявил о том, что курс по протекционистский курс США под руководством Дональда Трампа "поставит под вопрос благополучие Германии".

23 февраля, 18:17

Бундесбанк: протекционизм США навредит Германии

Глава Центрального банка ФРГ Йенс Вайдманн заявил о том, что протекционистский курс США под руководством Дональда Трампа "поставит под вопрос благополучие Германии".

23 февраля, 16:56

Bundesbank Prepares For Record Losses Once ECB Starts Hiking Rates

Germany's central bank reported its smallest profit in more than a decade in 2016 after setting aside a record amount of provisions against future losses on the bonds it is buying as part of the ECB's stimulus program, its annual report showed on Thursday. "It is fair to ask ... when we can take our foot off the monetary policy pedal," Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said while presenting the report. The Bundesbank recorded a net profit of 399 million euros (£337 million), the lowest since 2004 and far below the the €3.2 billion profit it booked in 2015. The fall was largely due to higher provisions against paper bought as part of the ECB's asset buying, which since June includes corporate bonds, and against cheap loans extended to banks. More troubling for holders of European bonds, the Bundesbank increased its provisions for bond losses to €21.9 billion from €19.6 billion a year earlier, a harbinger of what is to come once the ECB starts pulling its foot off the pedal. So far, however, the bank is making profits on its bond holdings. Ironically, the profit is mainly thanks to bonds from troubled countries such as Greece, bought at very high yields and against the opinion of Germany's own representative on the ECB's board, during the 2010-12 debt crisis. Of course, should Greece be forced to restructure its debt, all of the phantom, paper gains will be promptly wiped out as Greece bonds are repriced to reality. Buba's Weidmann: Bundesbank risk provision not linked to #ECB rate path. Buba not forecasting interest rate decisions. pic.twitter.com/loDXP0J2QU — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) February 23, 2017 By contrast, the predominantly German public sector paper bought as part of the asset-buying programme since 2015, some of which yields less than zero, resulted in a small loss for the Bundesbank. "The purchases of long-term securities (at very low interest rates) for monetary policy purposes and the new targeted longer-term refinancing operations (four-year maturity at a negative interest rate) have given rise to ... mounting interest rate risk," the Bundesbank said in the report. As Reuters points out, the drop in profit translates into a smaller contribution to Berlin's federal budget and, coupled with the threat of losses in the future, is likely to strengthen already sharp German criticism of the ECB's quantitative easing. "Especially since the ultra-accommodative monetary policy is being implemented in key measure through the large-scale purchases of government bonds, which, as you know, I am very critical of." And so the Bundesbank is trapped: permit Draghi to keep doing what he is doing and avoid losses, or demand action against the sudden spike in European inflation and suffer what even it now admits will be record MTM losses on bond holdings as rates start creeping higher. Finally, among the many topics covered in the report is the Bundesbank's update on its gold transfers, which as discussed recently, it scrambled to accelerate years ahead of schedule: The Bundesbank, as the central bank of Germany, is responsible for managing Germany’s reserve assets. These assets include the country’s gold holdings. In 2012, the Bundesbank decided that half of Germany’s gold reserves should be stored in its own vaults by 2020. This meant transferring gold from overseas storage locations to vaults located in Germany. The transport of 300 tonnes of gold from New York to Germany was completed in 2016. Of the 374 tonnes of gold originally stored in the vaults in Paris, only 91 tonnes are left; these holdings will be relocated in their entirety to Frankfurt am Main before the end of the current year. One can't help but wonder that the imminent mark-to-market losses, and potential for European market and political turbulence, and the acceleration in gold repatriation are related.

22 февраля, 14:59

Blow Out In German 2Y Bonds Sends Yield Crashing To Record Low As Political Fears Grow

The ongoing scramble for German safety away from French political uncertainty, has led to yet another blow out day for German 2 Year Schatz, with the yield tumbling to a fresh all time low of -0.92%, as Eurozone breakup concerns have spread from the bond market, and are now pressuring the euro sending the EURUSD below 1.05 for the first time in over a month. The rush into German paper and out of France, means that the 10Y Greman-French spread has topped 0.8%, the widest in over four years, while the 2Y US-German spread is now well over 2%, the widest since at least 2000. This pic.twitter.com/63a2mMUtGC — Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) February 22, 2017 Granted, there was a brief moment of respite moments ago, when France 10Y Bonds briefly rallied after the latest OpinionWay poll found momentum for Le Pen stalling, sending French 10y bonds higher, and the yield lower as much as 5bps before paring loss to 2bps, although that burst of optimism appears to have quickly faded. Adding to the German bid are signals that the ECB is buying German bonds, in particular those with a yield below the -0.4% deposit rate. With investors holding off selling their short-end German debt as they are used as collateral to receive cash at the ECB, fears have reignited of a collateral squeeze similar to late in 2016 which Draghi attempted, and failed, to address in the December ECB meeting. Ironically, the rush into 2 Year paper took place even as Germany suffered another technically "failed" 30Y auction, in which the Bundesbank was forced to retain 41.8% of the auction as only €733 million bids were tendered for €1 billion in the offered 30Y paper at a yield of 1.04%. The decline in the 2-Yr yield has been much more pronounced (falling 13bps from Friday) since Le Pen's significant narrowing in the Presidential poll seen at the back-end of last week (now over 40%). The political uncertainty regarding the French Presidential election has filtered into FX markets, weighing on EUR, which is now hovering at 6-week lows having made a break below 1.0520, however the downside has been curbed at 1.0500 led by the upside in EUR/GBP. As Bloomberg confirms in a note this morning, "German two-year yields are turning ever more negative in the build-up to France’s elections as demand for the securities saturates supply. It’s a reason for caution, and it’s weighing on the euro. " Yield reached record-low of -0.915%; the notes are in a sweet spot should investors price in greater risk of a euro- area break-up and pile into securities closest to cash; French candidate Marine Le Pen has threatened to quit euro area German notes are also being supported because they’re the top assets for use as collateral in the euro area and ECB buying has made them more scarce. Bloomberg adds that central banks in Switzerland and the Czech Republic could also be mopping up German securities as part of their efforts to curb their currencies’ appreciation against the euro. France’s notes have been underperforming versus Germany; the two-year yield spread stands at close to 50bps, the widest since May 2012. The spread level is well above its five-year average, and statistical analysis shows it may have room to narrow back toward 36bps. But look to the April 2012 high of 83bps as a guide for how far the spread could go if risks escalate in as France’s election draws near With US equities ignoring all adverse political news, keep an eye on the German bond market, where the 2Y has emerged as one of the last remaining barometers of political risk.

22 февраля, 14:38

European Rally Fizzles, S&P Futures Turn Red As USDJPY Slides, Bunds Strongly Bid

What started off in familiar fashion, with Asian stocks rising, and Europe hitting multi-month highs and US futures in record territory has stumbled in recent minutes following a continued rush for safety in short-dated German Bunds (the 2Y is now trading at -0.92%) and ongoing selling in the USDJPY, which has pushed Stoxx 600 back to unchanged, and S&P futures to modestly red for the session. The exact  catalyst is unclear although traders are citing continued French political risks, as the recent OAT selloff continued this morning on Le Pen fears. Earlier in the session, global stocks hit record highs on Wednesday, pushing gains for the year above those for all of 2016, while the dollar rose before Federal Reserve minutes that will be scoured for clues on the timing of the next U.S. interest rate rise. MSCI's main index of global stocks, which tracks share prices across 46 countries, hit a second successive record high. It has risen some 5.7 percent so far this year, beating the 5.6 percent gains of 2016. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was at the highest level since July 2015 as Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong resumed a rally. Japanese equities managed to end higher even after fluctuations in the yen pressured the Topix. European shares followed Asian bourses higher, buoyed by all main indexes on Wall Street touching record closing highs on Tuesday with Britain's Lloyds Banking Group was up 3 percent after reporting its highest full-year profit in a decade, although that early optimism appears to have faded. As a result, markets painted a mixed picture of investor sentiment on Wednesday, as political risk sent both the euro and German two-year bond yields lower while global equities tracked a U.S. rally. The dollar edged higher before the release of Fed minutes, up 0.3% at 101.64, gaining against the euro and sterling, pressuring oil lower. The day's most anticipated event for markets will be the release of the minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week it was likely the central bank would need to raise rates at an upcoming meeting. Markets have priced in only a slim chance of a rise next month but a much greater likelihood in May or June. The dollar rose 0.2 percent against a basket of major currencies and 0.3 percent versus the euro. Economists expect to see further discussion in the minutes of the Fed’s balance sheet strategy given that many monetary policymakers have been publicly discussing the topic, even though it is clear that policymakers have not yet reached a consensus on the particulars of  the Fed’s reinvestment policy. Additionally, DB economists expect the Fed to announce tapering of reinvestments this December, effective in January 2018. However they also expect a slower pace of tapering because the Fed will likely want to put as much distance between the Fed funds rate and the zero rate lower bound before risking greater disruptions to the long end of the Treasury curve. Thus, they still see the Fed hiking four times next year. Another key question many will hope to see some clarity on is whether March is "live" despite the Fed's generally less than hawkish announcement: it is not clear how the Fed will bridge its actual dovish statement to hawkish minutes that suddenly make the March meeting in play. Back to markets, where the Euro has dropped for a fourth day, dropping below 1.05 per dollar for the first time in more than six weeks. That lent early momentum to stocks, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advancing for a fourth session, however the rally has since fizzled. Germany’s Dax Index, already at an almost two-year high, briefly crossed the 12,000 level. Technology stocks outperformed with Ericsson surging following an upbeat Bank of America-Merrill Lynch note. Basic resources sector fell, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a note commodity markets need proof of demand to rally further. Lloyds Banking Group Plc rose 3.7 percent as the mortgage lender swung to a quarterly profit and boosted its dividend. Futures on the S&P 500 were trading modestly in the red. The index added 0.6 percent Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Russell 200 Index closing at all-time highs. EU data saw the inflation rates as expected: core y/y unchanged at 0.9%. German IFO current conditions and expectations both exceeded consensus forecasts at 118.4 and 104 respectively. European politics and the prospect of higher U.S. rates pushed the gap between short-dated U.S. and German benchmark government bond yields to its widest in nearly 17 years. German two-year yields hit a record low of minus 0.92 percent while U.S. equivalents touched 1.24 percent. Oil prices dipped. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at $56.50 a barrel, down 17 cents. Copper also fell, as traders reduced their positions before the Fed minutes, though supply disruptions supported prices. The metal last traded at $6,030 a tonne, down 0.5 percent on the day. Gold edged up 0.1 percent to $1,236 an ounce. On today's calendar are the abovementioned minutes from the latest Fed meeting, which traders hope will provide details on whether March is indeed "live" as a bevy of recent Fed speakers have suggested. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% at 2,357.75 STOXX Europe 600 down less than 0.1% to 373.33 MXAP up 0.6% to 146.14 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 470.46 Nikkei down 0.01% to 19,379.87 Topix up 0.1% to 1,557.09 Hang Seng Index up 1% to 24,201.96 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,261.22 Sensex up 0.4% to 28,879.78 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,805.10 Kospi up 0.2% to 2,106.61 German 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to 0.275% Euro down 0.3% to 1.0504 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.6% to $56.32/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 6.3 bps to 2.247% Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.683% Brent Futures down 0.6% to $56.32/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,237.29 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 101.64 Top Overnight News from BBG Fed’s $2.5 Trillion Hoard of Treasuries Seen Barely Shrinking McDonald’s to Cut Prices on Drinks as Fast-Food Industry Slumps Toll Brothers Beats Estimates as Company Delivers More Homes Facebook Said in Talks to Stream Major League Baseball Games Samsonite Says Mulling U.S. Manufacturing, But Not Due to Trump UPS Races to Cut Costs as E-Commerce Shifts Deliveries to Homes ConocoPhillips’ Reserves Drop to 15-Year Low as Oil- Sands Fade Ternium to Buy CSA Siderurgica do Atlantico From Thyssenkrupp Mexico and Canada Say Nafta Should Be Re-Negotiated Trilaterally Aramco Picks JPMorgan, HSBC, MS as Lead Underwriters Asian markets traded mostly higher following the positive lead from Wall Street where all 3 major US indices posted gains of at least 0.5%. ASX 200 (+0.2%) saw mild upside amid buoyant consumer staples and healthcare sectors, however upside was limited by gold miners. Nikkei 225 (flat) initially declined amid the risk averse sentiment in the region alongside JPY strength, however double digit gains seen in Toshiba shares helped return the index to flat on the session. China was traded higher as Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) initially lingered in the red following a weak liquidity injection by the PBoC but staged a late recovery, while Hang Seng (+0.8%) outperformed with properties leading the index as China Resources Land and China Overseas shares both surged more than 3%. 10yr JGBs traded higher amid the risk averse tone in the region, while the BoJ bond buying operation also provided support for the Japanese paper. Top Asian News China’s $9 Trillion Moral Hazard Problem Grows Too Big to Ignore China Home Prices Rise in Fewest Cities in a Year Amid Curbs Petron Malaysia 4Q Net Income 112.6m Ringgit Vs 16.2m Rgt Y/y China Insurance Watchdog Vows to Severely Punish Speculators Anta Sports Proposes Higher Dividend; FY Net in Line With Est. Indonesia Debt Attractive for Manulife Even as Yield Gap Narrows China’s $9 Trillion Moral Hazard Grows Too Big to Ignore European bourses have faded early gains, with Price action in equity markets has been dictated by the latest slew of earnings. UK financials have been led higher by Lloyds after the bank reported profits were ahead of analyst expectations, while the DAX broke above 12000 to touch its highest level since Apr'15 with Thyssenkrupp leading the index amid reports that they will divest assets of their Brazilian steel plant. Another day, another record low for the Schatz which is now yielding -0.9% amid signals that the ECB is buying German bonds, in particular those with a yield below the -0.4% deposit rate, which implies strong demand. While investors are seemingly holding off selling their short-end German debt as they are used as collateral to receive cash at the ECB, subsequently reigniting the fears of last year of a collateral squeeze which Draghi and Co. attempted to address in December. Additionally, the decline in the 2-yr yield has been much more pronounced (falling 13bps from Friday) since Le Pen's significant narrowing in the Presidential poll seen at the back-end of last week (now over 40%). Top European News German Business Sentiment Rises as Bundesbank Sees Growth Pickup Airbus Takes $2.3 Billion A400M Hit, Sees Profit Gain This Year RWE Writes Off 4.3 Billion Euros on Sliding Power Prices U.K. Gained Momentum at End of 2016 on Trade, Consumer Spending May Faces Calls to Tighten Takeover Rules After Kraft- Unilever In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2 percent, reversing an earlier drop. The yen led advances in major currencies, strengthening 0.5 percent to 113.17 per dollar, following two days of declines.  The British pound weakened 0.3 percent. The EUR is the big mover on the day as the fall out of the recent Le Pen gains (in the polls) continues. This has had a notable impact into short end German paper as investors are driven into 'safe havens' - precious metals also benefiting. EU/USD has now tested below 1.0500 and continues to do so, with the early drivers coming from EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY specifically. This looks set to continue as long as the polls remain where they are, and breaking some notable support levels, the cross rates in particular look vulnerable. EU data saw the inflation rates as expected — core y/y unchanged at 0.9%. German IFO current conditions and expectations both exceeded consensus forecasts at 118.4 and 104 respectively.  Both Cable and USD/JPY have been impacted, with the former pushed up through 1.2500 in the early exchanges before 1.2500+ sellers overwhelmed. This pair remains range bound inside 1.2350-1.2600 for now, but the latest Q4 business investment figures disappointed — falling 0.9% vs +0.4% previously, though the GDP rate was revised up slightly to prompt some immediate algo driven buying. USD/JPY has now slipped back to 113.00 as a result, with lacklustre UST yields also playing their pair. The 10yr rate looks pretty stagnant inside the 2.30-2.55% range, but this translates into limited momentum in the spot rate either way In commodities, gains in Gold (up 0.1% to $1,237) are perhaps more of a function of risk sentiment as the political arena in Europe grabs more of the attention. The polls show Le Pen making some notable gains, albeit still behind in the 2nd round, but enough to unnerve EUR holders at the very least if not investors globally. Safe haven flow has prompted significant moves in shorter end Bunds, but given the safe haven aspect, Gold has also benefited alongside Silver. Energy prices have seen some downside in European trade, paring some of yesterday's gains which saw WTI fail to make a sustained break above USD 55.00/bbl. Furthermore, participants will likely be looking ahead to today's rescheduled API release which has recently provided a slew of large builds.. Comments from Barkindo on further compliance have supported, but last night's rhetoric from Iran suggested a move to $60.00 would hurt OPEC — in terms of deterring fresh production (Shale?). Inventory levels for Iron Ore in China are grabbing more of the headlines, and may put the brakes on some of the moves seen in base metals of late. On the day, Lead is the out-performer, while Copper gives back some of its recent gains, though holds comfortably above $2.70. Looking at the day ahead, in the US the lone data release is January existing home sales. Later this evening we’ll get the FOMC minutes from the Jan 31st/Feb 1st meeting. Away from the data we’re due to hear from the Fed’s Powell at 6pm GMT, while BoE deputy governor Cunliffe is due to speak later this morning. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -3.7% 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.55m, prior 5.49m; MoM, est. 1.09%, prior -2.8% 1pm: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook in New York 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Markets are in a celebratory mood at the moment with the flash European PMI’s for February lending further strength to the argument of an improving growth picture in Europe. Indeed the composite reading for the Euro area surged 1.6pts to 56.0 in February after the consensus was for broadly little change. That is the highest reading since April 2011 while the details revealed a 0.3pt rise in the manufacturing PMI to 55.5 and an even more significant 1.9pt jump in the services reading to 55.6. The country level breakdown also revealed an impressive 1.3pt jump in the composite for Germany to 56.1 and a 2.1pt jump in the composite for France to 56.2. So decent evidence that the European economy is showing signs of strong upward growth momentum in the first quarter of this year with growth also encouragingly broad-based by sector and country. Significantly that data is also coming despite an increasingly uncertain political environment. Much has been made of the recent tightening in the French polls in favour of Le Pen versus Macron and Fillon. Yesterday we got more evidence of that with the release of another poll. The Elabe poll (covering 18-20 Feb) revealed first round support for Le Pen of 27.5% (up from 26% from the same pollster earlier this month) while support for Fillon actually rose 3 points to 20% and support for Macron fell about five points to 18.5%. In the second round a Le Pen – Fillon race has the latter coming out on top at 56% versus 44% which is unchanged, but a Le Pen – Macron race showed the margin of loss for Le Pen as tightening to 18% (59% versus 41%) from 26%. It’s worth noting that a live TV debate between Fillon, Hamon, Le Pen, Macron and Melenchon has been scheduled for March 20th, so that might be one to note in the calendar. In terms of markets, French 10y OATs (+2.9bps to 1.080%) again underperform Bunds (+0.3bps to 0.296%) which in turn sent the spread between the two to a new four-and-a-bit year high of 79bps. The peripherals were also anywhere from 3bps to 7bps higher yesterday although in Greece 2y yields (-102bps) hit their lowest level since January following that news that Greece’s creditors are to return to continue discussions, suggesting a political framework is in place to allow an agreement to proceed. Treasury yields also edged a bit higher with the 10y yield up 1.4bps to 2.429% although that was actually despite some disappointment in the latest PMI’s there (more on that below). Instead it was another day of familiar record highs for US equities which dominated the headlines with the S&P 500 (+0.60%), Dow (+0.58%), Nasdaq (+0.47%) and Russell 2000 (+0.75%) indices all notching up new all time highs. Better than expected results in the retail sector from Wal-Mart and Home Depot seemed to help, as did further gains for Oil with WTI finishing up +1.02% and back above $54/bbl. Looking ahead to today, while there’s not a huge amount of data scheduled we will get the FOMC minutes later this evening from the Jan 31st/Feb 1st meeting. Our US economists noted in their daily that they expect to see further discussion in the minutes of the Fed’s balance sheet strategy given that many monetary policymakers have been publicly discussing the topic. They note though that it’s clear that policymakers have not yet reached a consensus on the particulars of the Fed’s reinvestment policy. Our economists have however re-evaluated the likely path of Fed balance sheet adjustments. They continue to expect the Fed to announce tapering of reinvestments this December, effective in January 2018. However they also expect a slower pace of tapering because the Fed will likely want to put as much distance between the Fed funds rate and the zero rate lower bound before risking greater disruptions to the long end of the Treasury curve. Thus, they still see the Fed hiking four times next year. Keep an eye on the minutes this evening for any more clues. Back to markets where this morning in Asia it’s been a bit of a mixed start. While the Nikkei, Kospi and ASX are little changed, the Hang Seng is up +0.82% following stronger than expected GDP data out of Hong Kong (+1.2% qoq in Q4 versus +0.7% expected). On the other hand bourses in China are modestly in the red (Shanghai Comp -0.15%) following a strong start in the first two days of the week. In other markets the US Dollar is flat after the Fed’s Mester said that the Fed doesn’t want to surprise markets on possible future rate hikes. US equity index futures are also little changed Oil has continued to push on and bonds are mixed, albeit with modest moves. Moving on. Trump related headlines may have abated somewhat in the last week or two but that’s not to say that this will continue. Our FX colleagues pointed out in a piece yesterday that two forthcoming events could bring more clarity to the border adjustment tax debate in particular. Trump is due to address a joint session of Congress on February 28th while the release of the White House’s “phenomenal” tax plan in the next fortnight or so could bring some clarity to the White House’s position. Both occasions could see a definitive endorsement or rejection of the Ryan-Brady BAT proposal and tip the balance in Congress. The team highlight that anecdotally, investors remain unconvinced that border adjustment will happen. Beyond this, it is impossible to derive a market-implied probability. But at least we can gauge the market's fear of border adjustment from a number of instruments which would be idiosyncratically affected. Specifically, the discount of WTI over Brent futures has widened again since almost closing in early January. Since border adjustment would likely result in WTI trading at a premium, the oil market appears to increasingly discount the reform. The US retail sector, moreover, has almost fully closed its underperformance in the stock market since early January, also reflecting diminished fears of a BTA-driven rise in import costs. Lastly, the US breakeven curve still prices a higher risk of a nearterm, transient inflation shock than earlier this year, but this is probably consistent with lingering expectations of some protectionist measures, not just the BAT proposal. In conclusion our colleagues highlight then that the relevant principal component of these proxies suggests that the market has gradually discounted the border adjustment reform over the past three weeks, and expectations are now even below the peak of early January, prior to President Trump's critical remarks in the Wall Street Journal on 15 January. Hence, while the market hasn't fully priced it out, the risk is increasingly skewed toward Trump surprising the market with an endorsement of the Ryan-Brady proposal. Wrapping up the remaining data yesterday, as noted earlier overall the PMI’s in the US were a little disappointing. Both the flash February services (-1.7pts to 53.9; 55.8 expected) and manufacturing (-0.7pts to 54.3; 55.4 expected) readings fell after expectations were for modest gains. That resulted in a dip in the composite to 54.3 from 55.8 although putting it in context that is still above the levels in 10 of the 12 months in 2016. There was also some Fedspeak to take stock of. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said that “at this point I would not take March off the table” while also highlighting that there is still important data to come. Meanwhile comments from BoE Governor Carney seemed to help Sterling to climb slightly after he said that if the Brexit process proceeds “relatively smoothly to an increasingly clear end-point” then that “would be consistent with a higher path of interest rates”. Looking at the day ahead, this morning we’ll be kicking things off in Germany where the February IFO survey will be released. Shortly after that we get preliminary Q4 GDP in the UK with the various growth components also due to be released. The other data due out this morning will be the final January revisions for Euro area CPI. This afternoon in the US the lone data release is January existing home sales. Later this evening we’ll get the FOMC minutes from the Jan 31st/ Feb 1st meeting. Away from the data we’re due to hear from the Fed’s Powell at 6pm GMT, while BoE deputy governor Cunliffe is due to speak later this morning.

19 февраля, 17:21

Germans: 'Yes, Gold IS Money'

Whereas a few years ago countries repatriating their gold seemed to be ‘the hype of the month’, once the dust started to settle, we didn’t hear much about gold repatriations anymore. At least, until last week, when Germany announced it has been able to accelerate the gold repatriations. Indeed, the country has now repatriated all the gold it wanted to get back from New York and now has to bring just 91 additional tonnes ‘back home’ from Paris. Source: Bundesbank.de Once those final 91 tonnes will be back in  Frankfurt, Germany will cut all ties with the custodian in Paris and its gold will remain in the Frankfurt, London and New York vaults, and approximately 50% of the entire inventory of the country will be held inside the country. What’s really interesting is how hard Germany wanted to emphasize it has received ‘real’ gold and it looks like the Bundesbank wanted to nip some comments in the bud. In fact, the German Central Bank has now promised to release a list of gold bars on Thursday to confirm which bars have been ‘sent home’ by the New York Fed, where the US-based bars were held. You’d almost start to think the Bundesbank is trying ‘too hard’ to convince the population it really received the yellow metal from New York. If this would indeed be a normal transaction (after all, it should be. ‘You have our gold, please give it back to us!’), why would the Bundesbank be so dramatic about receiving it. The president effectively showcased bars of gold, and showed pictures of the German vault in New York, as you can see on the next image. Source: Reuters You’d almost start to think they were surprised to be effectively able to get the gold back! And you’d almost start to think gold is valuable, contrary to the ‘gold isn’t money’ rhetoric after the global financial crisis. If gold had no monetary value – which is what the central banks really wanted you to believe – why are the Germans making such a fuss about it? Perhaps because gold IS money, and perhaps because gold remains an insurance policy not only against inflation, as we argued in the past few weeks, but also against political uncertainty. And whilst the appointment of Donald Trump as president of the United States was initially seen as a great decision for the American economy, a lot of the plans the president wanted to execute remain uncertain, and more importantly, unclear. One of the proposals was to allow companies to repatriate the cash they are holding in overseas subsidiaries back to the USA. The tax income associated with such a repatriation would bolster the US government income, but it would also ‘incentivize’ American companies to invest (a large part of) it in the domestic economy. That’s a great plan and will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the employment rate and the domestic growth numbers, but investors were probably kinda hoping to see a real ‘plan’ by now. Source: CME Group As the Federal Reserve seems to be planning to hike the interest rate again in March (as you can see on the previous chart, the market is pricing in a very small chance to see another rate hike), it’s really interesting to see the market doesn’t believe a single word of this. With a probability of less than 18% to see a rate hike happen, investors seem to be pretty certain it will take a while before we will effectively see a rate hike. Source: CME Group Indeed, even for the May meeting date, the market is still estimating a 56% chance the Federal Reserve won’t hike the interest rate, and it’s only after July 2017 the market gives a rate hike a 75% probability to happen. These are for sure very interesting times, and gold seems to be very strong these days as the tension in world politics remain at an elevated level. And during distressing times, people always fall back on gold as a safe heaven. And so does the Bundesbank. >>> Read our Guide to Gold and find out how you could use gold as an insurance policy Secular Investor offers a fresh look at investing. We analyze long lasting cycles, coupled with a collection of strategic investments and concrete tips for different types of assets. The methods and strategies are transformed into the Gold & Silver Report and the Commodity Report. Follow us [email protected][NEW][email protected]

14 февраля, 17:31

Германское золото перевезли

На прошлой неделе Бундесбанк выпустил скромный релиз о том, что выполнил предусмотренную до 2020 года программу перемещения германского золота из Нью-Йорка -- все 300 тонн золота оказались во Франкфурте.В Федеральном резервном банке Нью-Йорк по-прежнему остаются 1236 тонн золота и, конечно, не исключено, что немецкие власти придумают новый план до 2020 года (если вдруг США начнут делать что-то по мнению Германии неблаговидное)).Чуть ранее в этом блоге и на Афтешоке вывешивал несколько заметок о том, что рекордное для современных времен перемещение золота состоялось совершенно незаметно.Танки, золото и микробыКак выглядят возвращенные в Германию 410 тонн золота?674 тонны германского золотаВ прошлом году более 216 тонн золота были переведены в Германию, из которых 111 тонн из Нью-Йорка и 105 тонн Парижа.Таким образом, с 2013 года постепенно почти 283 тонны золота из Парижа и 300 тонн золота из Нью-Йорка были перемещены во Франкфурт-на-Майне.Голливуд даже не снял фильм о том, как его похитили.Очень многие скептики сомневаются, что состоялось физическое перемещение всего золота.Мутные фото продемонстрированного Бундесбанком возвращенного золота наверняка нисколько не развеют сомнений

12 февраля, 18:54

Hedge Fund CIO Amazed At The Absurdity Of It All

The latest weekly recap from One River Asset Management CIO Eric Peters tries to bring some sense to an increasingly absurd global economic, social and political situation, and fails, finding that the "more than absured is no longer absurd." From Eric Peters' Weekly Notes “More than absurd!” cried Jens Weidmann, outraged by Pete Navarro. Trump’s trade advisor had deliberately talked-down the dollar to boost US exports by accusing Germany of deliberately weakening the euro to boost European exports.   The argument is quite obviously absurd, because everyone’s trying to engineer a weaker currency. But according to Jens, it’s so absurd as to be more than absurd. Like lifting yourself into the air by grabbing your ass with both hands.   Germany’s current account surplus is over 8% of GDP, 2016 factory orders soared 8.1%. Absurd!   Greek unemployment hit 23%; the IMF forecasts 275% Debt/GDP by 2060. Absurd!   Germany is suffocating Europe. “Absurd!” cry German policy-makers, in more than absurd self-defense, as the Bundesbank repatriated 111 tons of physical gold from the NY Federal Reserve in 2016, and 105 tons from the Bank of France - they’re nearly complete.   “Frexit is a choice of impoverishment that threatens French jobs and savings,” warned the ECB’s Coeure. But if they don’t vote Le Pen, they’ll vote for impoverishment Hamon-style, with his 35 hours of pay for 32-hour work weeks. Or they’ll vote Fillon, with his E830k of government-financed pay for no work at all (you just need to be his wife). Or they’ll vote Macron, who sounds absurdly sensible in a frightened world screaming out for something else, without knowing quite what it is, but willing to take a risk.   “Our leaders chose globalization, which they wanted to be a happy thing. It turned out to be a horrible thing,” Le Pen screeched, to a crowd in Lyon. “It sets the conditions for another form of globalization: Islamist fundamentalism.” An imminent ISIS Paris-bombing was thwarted, the French/German 10yr bond spread widened to 72bps.   “The people are waking - the tide of history has turned,” thundered Marine. As the more than absurd is no longer absurd. And here is a bonus anecdote from Peters:  “The UK, US and Italy have rejected the established orthodoxy of the post-1979 period,” said the CIO, in one of those English accents that make American’s feel stupid. “Prior to 1979 it was accepted that the overriding aim of economic policy should be the pursuit of full employment.” Post-1979 the only object of government policy has been the pursuit of a declining inflation rate.   “The former (full employment) bias succeeded so well it dissolved into high inflation and declining real wages. The latter (low inflation) bias succeeded so well it dissolved into deflation and zero net capital investment.”   On the one hand, it’s not clear what capitalism is without a return on capital (1979) and on the other, it’s unclear what capitalism is without capital investment (2016). “The post-Thatcher orthodoxy was designed to reduce inflation. What was not realized (except by the honest few) was that a war on inflation implied a war on developed-economy wages, and that this implied a shift in the distribution of output away from labor toward capital. Even less realized was that by stifling wage growth and reducing wage income as a share of the economy, one would stifle the economy overall.   “Voters rejected the former dispensation with the election of Thatcher and Reagan. Now they have rejected the latter.” Japan went further than any nation in the pursuit of low inflation, driving down real hourly wages for twenty years. An achievement without parallel. “The motor behind the economic outcome to which the electorate appears to object is the obsession with low inflation. In turn this is supported by an obsession with monetary policy and an anathematization of fiscal policy.” Trump says these must change.   “Whether he means it or whether he can change it is open to question. But if he does, a new world awaits as post 1979 orthodoxy is ditched.” A new world, in which even the Fed's second in command admits they have no idea what is about to happen next.

10 февраля, 11:50

Немецкий Центральный банк заявил о планах в 2017 году перевезти золотой запас Германии из Франции во Франкфурт

Сегодня член правления Бундесбанка Карл-Людвиг Тиле, в своем интервью Wall Street Journal заявил, что у ЦБ в планах на 2017 год перевезти золотой запас Германии из Франции во Франкфурт. Чиновник напомнил, что о таком своем решение Бундесбанк озвучил еще 4 года назад. В рамках этой программы предусмотрено весь свой резерв физического золота со всего мира вернуть обратно во Франкфурт и в 17 году такой трансфер будет из Парижа. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

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10 февраля, 00:55

Germans Sent Gold Away to Keep It From the Soviets. Now Much of It Is Back.

The reserves, back at the Bundesbank, had been kept in London, Manhattan and Paris in case of an invasion. Some will stay in Britain and New York.

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09 февраля, 19:01

Bundesbank brings back gold

A gold bar from 1917 is pictured at the German central bank Bundesbank in Frankfurt am Main yesterday. The Bundesbank said yesterday that it brought 111 tons of gold back from the Federal Reserve in New York last year, concluding in September — the last of 300 tons slated for return. The bank also repatriated 105 tons of gold from Paris last year. During the Cold War, the Bundesbank kept much of its gold outside the country for fear of Soviet Union invasion. — AFP

09 февраля, 18:28

Германия вывезла 300 тонн золота из хранилищ ФРС США

Германия завершила программу вывоза своего золотого запаса из США, сообщил Бундесбанк в четверг. За 2016 год из хранилищ Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка (входит в структуру ФРС) в Германию...

09 февраля, 17:18

Bundesbank Has Completed Gold Repatriation From New York Fed, Three Years Ahead Of Schedule

In January of 2016, the Bundesbank announced that three years after commencing the transfer of some of its offshore-held gold from vaults located at the Banque de France in Paris and the NY Fed in New York, it had repatriated a total of 366.3 tonnes, bringing the German central bank's gold reserves held in Frankfurt to 1,402 tonnes, or 41.5% of Germany's total gold of 3,381 tonnes, for the first time greater than the 1.347 thousand tonnes located at the New York Fed, which as of January 27, 2016 held 39.9% of Germany's official gold. "With approximately 1,403 tonnes of gold, Frankfurt has been our largest storage location, ahead of New York, since the end of last year," said Carl-Ludwig Thiele, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank. "The transfers are proceeding smoothly. We have succeeded in once again significantly increasing the transport volume compared with 2014. This means that operations are running very much according to schedule," added Thiele last January. As a reminder, according to its gold storage plan, unveiled in January 2013, the Bundesbank would store half of Germany's gold reserves in its own vaults in Frankfurt am Main by 2020 which would  necessitate a transfer to Frankfurt of 300 tonnes of gold from New York and all 374 tonnes of gold from Paris. It also meant that as of January, another 111 tonnes of gold from the NY Fed and 196.4 tonnes of gold from Paris remained to be transfered. The "politically correct" motives for the transfer, as well as the logistics and the mechanics behind it were explained in a March 2015 video released by the Bundesbank... ... the real reasons, however, is that following several reports on this website which cast doubts on Germany's gold holdings, in late 2012 the German Court of Auditors demanded that the Bundesbank undertake an audit of its gold reserves. Specifically, the court wanted to ensure that the nearly 3400 tons of gold, of which more than 2,000 tonnes held offshore, is in fact in existence - 'because stocks have never been checked for authenticity and weight'.  The move to repatriate was only accelerate following rumors that much of the offshore-held gold might have been "rehypothecated", and not be there anymore, that it might have been melted down, leased, or sold. Ironically, at the time, Bundesbank Board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele told the Handelsblatt that these moves were a “trust-building” measure, and he tried vigorously to put the rumors about the missing gold to rest. Of course, repatriating your gold from foreign central banks is precisely the opposite of a "demonstration of confidence." What made matters worse is that at the end of 2013, the Bundesbank announced it had managed to repatriate only 37 tonnes of the total 700 scheduled for redemption, further spooking the local population and suggesting that conspiracy theories that the gold was missing were in fact accurate. As a result, following blowback from both the media and the public, the Bundesbank accelerated its activity, and repatriated 120 tonnes in 2014 and another 210 in 2015, implying that the Bundesbank's faith in its foreign central bank peers had declined in inverse proportion to the following accelerated redemption schedule as of January 2016. * * * Then, in an update last December, Germany's Bild reported that in 2016 the Bundesbank has repatriated "more of its gold than planned", as it moves toward relocating half of the world's second-largest reserve at home. "We brought back significantly more gold to Germany in 2016 again than initially planned. By now, almost half of the gold reserves are in Germany," Buba president Jens Weidmann told the German publication. According to Bild, around 1,600 tonnes of Germany's gold reserves are now in the country, a figure set to rise to 1,700 tonnes by 2020. This, according to our recent calculations, meant that the Bundesbank repatriated roughly 200 tonnes of gold in 2016, comparable to the 210 tonnes its brought back to Frankfurt in 2015, and the total held domestically  amounts to 1,600 tonnes at the end of 2016. Fast forward to today, in a press release, the Bundesbank provided an official update of its gold holdings, and our analysis was accurate: the German central bank said it had "successfully continued its transfers of gold last year", and in 2016, more than 216 tonnes of gold were transferred to Frankfurt am Main from storage locations abroad: 111 tonnes from New York and 105 tonnes from Paris. This would make 2016 the year of fastest gold repatriation, with the 216 tons of gold transfered, higher than the previous record of 210 in 2015. Altogether, the Bundesbank, has now transfered a total of 583 tonnes, or 86% of the 674 tonnes planned in total. Most importantly, as of December 31, the Bundesbank has now completed all of its scheduled gold withdrawals from the NY Fed, having repatriated a total of 300 tonnes, some 3 years ahead of schedule. "The transfer of gold from New York was completed successfully last year," said Carl-Ludwig Thiele, Member of the Bundesbank’s Executive Board. "The transfers were carried out without any disruptions or irregularities. The gold storage plan for New York, which envisaged the transfer of 300 tonnes of gold from New York to Frankfurt, was fully realised in 2016," Mr Thiele stated. The Bundesbank also said the repatriation of gold reserves back home was "considerably ahead of the origianal schedule" and as Thiele added "We will be able to complete the transfer of gold from Paris this year too." Which considering there is only 91t of gold left in Paris, or less than Germany withdrew in 2015 and 2016, should be relatively easy. In summary, as of the end of 2016, the Bundesbank had 47.9% of its gold in Frankfurt - just 2.1% shy of the the planned 50% - 36.6% at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 12.8% at the Bank of England in London, and 2.7% at the Banque de France in Paris. Why this unexpected scramble to repatraite so much gold 3 years ahead of the 2020 stated schedule, remains a mystery.

09 февраля, 17:13

Бундесбанк завершил возврат золота в 2016 г.

Центральный банк Германии (Бундесбанк) сообщил сегодня о том, что операция по возвращению золотого запаса страны из других стран завершена успешно. Никаких трудностей при этом не возникло...

09 февраля, 17:02

ФРГ вернула часть золотого резерва из США и Франции

Немецкий Бундесбанк в прошлом году возвратил около 216 метрических тонн (238 тонн) золота во Франкфурт в рамках объявленного 4 года назад плана по возвращению золотого запаса Германии, который реализуется с опережением графика.

09 февраля, 17:02

ФРГ вернула часть золотого резерва из США и Франции

Немецкий Бундесбанк в прошлом году возвратил около 216 метрических тонн (238 тонн) золота во Франкфурт в рамках объявленного 4 года назад плана по возвращению золотого запаса Германии, который реализуется с опережением графика.

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07 февраля, 21:19

Bundesbank chief rejects claim of euro manipulation

Weidmann retorts to attack from US, raising spectre of clash over Trump’s rhetoric

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07 февраля, 21:19

Bundesbank chief rejects claim of euro manipulation

Weidmann retorts to attack from US, raising spectre of clash over Trump’s rhetoric

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07 февраля, 21:05

Bundesbank Chief Rejects Trump Aide's Criticism

The head of Germany’s Bundesbank responded sharply to accusations that Germany uses an undervalued currency to exploit trading partners, calling the charges by a senior U.S. official “more than absurd.”

15 августа 2013, 15:20

США отказываются возвращать немецкий золотой запас

Мир теряет веру в доллар как в самую надежную валюту. Волна недоверия поднялась после того, как Немецкий федеральный банк потребовал репатриации огромного количества золота, хранящегося в Федеральной резервной системе США. Некоторые обеспокоены тем, что национальные вклады других стран не будут в безопасности в США. Да и находятся ли они там вообще? Подробности в репортаже корреспондента RT Гаяне Чичакян. Подписывайтесь на RT Russian - http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=rtrussian RT на русском - http://russian.rt.com/ Vkontakte - http://vk.com/rt_russian Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/RTRussian Twitter - http://twitter.com/RT_russian Livejournal - http://rt-russian.livejournal.com/

06 февраля 2013, 00:00

Утечка информации из МВФ: «золотое» мошенничество центральных банков

О GATA и «золотом картеле» Еще в конце ХХ века наиболее въедливые эксперты стали подозревать, что на рынке золота происходит что-то неладное. А именно: даже если жёлтый металл не дешевеет, то цены на него всё равно отстают по темпам роста от динамики цен на многие другие товары мирового рынка. Золото дешевело также на фоне индексов фондовых рынков, цен на недвижимость и т.п. Никаких крупных месторождений золота в это время не было открыто, золотые метеориты на Землю не падали. Заниженные цены на желтый металл больно били по компаниям золотодобывающей промышленности. Представители нескольких компаний этой отрасли решили разобраться в загадке, для чего и создали организацию под названием GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action). В буквальном переводе - «Действие против Золотого Треста». Как следует из названия, учредители GATA подозревали, что на мировом рынке золота действует группа злоумышленников, объединенных в трест, который манипулирует ценами на золото в сторону их занижения. В своих публикациях GATA чаще использовала термин «золотой картель». Постепенно удалось вычислить основных участников этого картеля. Среди них - Казначейство США, Федеральный резервный банк Нью-Йорка (главный из 12 федеральных банков, составляющих ФРС США), Банк Англии, ряд крупнейших коммерческих и инвестиционных банков США и Западной Европы (здесь особо выделяется «Голдман Сакс» - инвестиционный банк с Уолл-стрит). Это – ядро картеля. Время от времени в поле зрения GATA попадали и другие организации, участвовавшие в операциях картеля. В том числе центральные банки некоторых стран.  1990-е годы были периодом наибольшей активности США на мировых рынках активов. Проще говоря, американцы организовывали приватизации государственных предприятий по всему миру (в том числе в России), а для таких операций нужен был сильный доллар. Финансовые аналитики и спекулянты прекрасно знают простое правило: чем ниже цена на золото, тем крепче доллар. Самый простой и дешевый способ укрепить доллар – «прижать» цену на «желтый металл», который явно и неявно выступает конкурентом этой резервной валюты. Однако чтобы «прижать» цену, надо обеспечить повышенное предложение этого металла на мировом рынке. У тех, кто хотел сыграть на «понижение» золота, взоры обратились к несметным запасам золота, сосредоточенным в подвалах казначейств и центральных банков. Эти запасы лежали там без движения с тех пор, как в 1970-е гг. рухнула Бреттон-Вудская валютно-финансовая система. В новой Ямайской валютно-финансовой системе золото перестало быть деньгами, оно было объявлено одним из биржевых товаров – таким как нефть, пшеница или бананы. Версия о золотых манипуляциях центральных банков Как можно использовать это золото для манипуляций ценами?  Первое и главное условие сводится к тому, чтобы полностью засекретить официальные запасы желтого металла и все операции денежных властей с ними. Еще более повысить независимый статус центральных банков, для того чтобы «народные избранники», органы финансового контроля и прочие любопытствующие элементы не совали свои носы в дела этих институтов. Не допускать государственных аудиторов до «золотых закромов». В США, например, Главное контрольное управление (Счётная палата Конгресса) последний раз посещало главное хранилище официального золотого запаса США Форт Ноксболее 60 лет назад.  Далее под завесой секретности можно начинать операции с золотом. Однако не продавать его, а передавать разным частным структурам «на время», оформляя эти операции как кредиты или лизинг желтого металла. А вместо золотых слитков оставлять в хранилищах бумажки, которые являются с бухгалтерско-юридической точки зрения «требованиями», «расписками», «сертификатами» и т.п. То есть золото на балансе центрального банка сохраняется, только оно имеет не металлическую, а виртуально-бумажную (или даже электронную) форму. А «народу» это знать не обязательно. Если в эти «золотые аферы» втянуть десяток-другой центральных банков, то каждый год на рынок можно выкидывать не одну сотню тонн драгоценного металла и сбивать на него цену.  Эксперты (в том числе эксперты GATA) находили многочисленные подтверждения тому, что все это не вымысел, а результат преступного сговора центральных банков с частными банкирами и спекулянтами. И тут сразу возникают вопросы: кому центральные банки передавали золото? Было ли это золото возвращено назад в сейфы центральных банков? Известны ли эти махинации законодателям? Сколько на сегодняшний день реально осталось физического золота в хранилищах центральных банков (и государственных казначейств)? Отметим, что отдельные попытки разобраться в том, что представляют собой официальные золотые запасы, насколько официальная статистика золота отражает истинное положение дел, кто и как управляет официальным золотым запасом, предпринимались парламентариями, политиками, общественными активистами в разных странах. Например, в США такие попытки регулярно предпринимал член Конгресса США Рон Пол. Регулярные запросы в разные инстанции делала также GATA.  Денежные власти предпочитали отмалчиваться. Или же ответы были крайне лаконичными и сводились к тому, что «золотой запас страны находится в неприкосновенности». Такую же позицию занимали на протяжении последних 15 лет (с тех пор, как начались разговоры о «золотом картеле») и международные финансовые организации: Банк международных расчетов (который, кстати, активно занимается операциями с желтым металлом и был заподозрен в участии в «золотом картеле»), Всемирный банк, Международный валютный фонд (1).  Утечка информации из МВФ И вот последняя новость в этой области. Речь идет о материале, размещенном на сайте GATA в декабре 2012 года (2). Это полученное одним из экспертов GATA секретное исследование Международного валютного фонда 13-летней давности. Оно касается мирового рынка золота и роли центральных банков в операциях на этом рынке в 1999 году. Поскольку оно секретное, то его автор позволяет себе писать полную правду об операциях центральных банков.  «Информация о рынке золота неоднородна», – говорится в исследовании. «Для транзакций характерна высокая степень секретности. Наряду с относительно небольшим количеством открытых торгов на биржах, продажи золота представляют собой приватные внебиржевые сделки, о таких операциях сообщается скупо. … Официальные данные о ссудах в золоте практически отсутствуют». Вот ключевые факты и цифры из этого материала МВФ. В 1999 годуболее 80 центральных банков ссудили 15 процентов официальных золотых запасов рынку (имеется в виду величина непогашенных обязательств по золотым кредитам). В числе центральных банков, предоставлявших ссуды в золоте, были Бундесбанк Германии, Швейцарский национальный банк, Банк Англии, Резервный банк Австралии и центральные банки Австрии, Португалии и Венесуэлы. В исследовании подтверждается, что центральные банки играли на рынке золота на «понижение»: «…высокая степень мобилизации резервов центробанка через кредитные операции в золоте оказала понижающее влияние на наличную цену золота, поскольку перекредитуемое золото обычно связано с продажами золота на наличном рынке». Далее в исследовании МВФ говорится, что «кредитование в золоте заставило центробанки проявлять активность на рынке производных финансовых инструментов золота, где участвуют банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами и производители золота, продавая золото через форвардные сделки и опционы. В свою очередь, банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами приложили все усилия для защиты и укрепления долгосрочных отношений с центральными банками». Вот еще выдержка из документа МВФ: «Доля промышленно развитых стран на всём рынке официального кредитования в золоте выросла с 33 процентов в конце 1995 года до 46 процентов к концу 1998 года, поскольку некоторые центральные банки промышленных стран повысили уровень кредитования; в то же время на рынке появились новые кредиторы, в частности Бундесбанк и Швейцарский национальный банк». А вот комментарий эксперта GATA, разместившего данный материал:«При столь значительном количестве центральных банков, секретно предоставляющих ссуды в золоте тем финансовым организациям, чей основной талант, как можно было видеть в последнее время, состоит в рыночных махинациях, кто станет отрицать, кроме обычных агентов дезинформации, что рынком золота манипулируют именно для того, чтобы не позволить всему миру пользоваться свободными рынками?» 2013 год: ждём новых «золотых» скандалов и «золотых» сенсаций Раскрытия страшной тайны золота ждут уже много лет. Ещё в 2004 году Лондонский банк Ротшильдов заявил о своем выходе из «золотого фиксинга» - процедуры ежедневного определения в узком кругу цены на жёлтый металл в лондонском Сити. Тем самым Ротшильды заявили миру, что они выходят из золотого бизнеса, которым занимались на протяжении двух столетий. Однако это – всего лишь эффектный жест. Из золотого бизнеса они не ушли, а продолжили заниматься им через структуры с другими вывесками. Чувствуя угрозу надвигающегося скандала с разоблачениями «золотого картеля», эти олигархические круги решили своевременно отойти от эпицентра возможного взрыва…  Возбуждение общественности и политиков по поводу официальных запасов золота резко обострилось в 2012 году. Выяснилось, что на мировом рынке активно идет торговля фальшивым золотом в виде вольфрамовых позолоченных слитков (хотя специалистам об этом стало известно еще в 2004 году, трубить об этом мошенничестве мировые СМИ начали только в 2012 году). Возникли подозрения, что в подвалах центральных банков и казначейств находятся груды вольфрама. Рон Пол добился проведения выборочной проверки брусков металла в подвалах Форт-Нокс и Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка. Германия потребовала от США вернуть золото из своего официального запаса (Бундесбанк), которое хранилось в подвалах ФРБ Нью-Йорка, но встретила глухое сопротивление со стороны казначейства и ФРС США. Кончилось это тем, что председатель Федерального резерва Бен Бернанке заявил, что недавний ураган Сэнди… «уничтожил» немецкое золото. Ничего лучшего он придумать не смог. Все это лишь подкрепило мнение тех, кто давно обвиняет ФРС и другие центральные банки в мошенничестве с золотом.  Думаю, что в 2013 г. тема золота центральных банков станет еще более горячей. Например, все с нетерпением ждут обнародования результатов выборочной физической проверки слитков золота из закромов Казначейства США. Власти обещали сообщить об этом в начале 2013 года. От Германии все напряженно ожидают реакции на заявление Бернанке о таинственном исчезновении немецкого золота.  Появились вопросы и к Банку международных расчетов (БМР), активно практикующему коммерческие операции с желтым металлом - и собственным, и тем, который центральные банки предоставляют БМР в виде депозитов или кредитов. Отчётность БМР об этих операциях крайне лаконична и не даёт представления о деталях сделок, их контрагентах и конечных бенефициарах.  Международный валютный фонд будет продолжать настойчиво требовать от Китая раскрытия истинной информации об официальном золотом запасе. В 2009 г. Народный банк Китая (НБК) сообщил, что его золотые запасы увеличились сразу на 76% и составили 1054 тонны. С тех пор официальные цифры золотого запаса НБК не менялись. Мало кто верит в то, что эти цифры отражают реальное положение дел. Считается, что денежные власти Китая сильно занижают цифры, тайно переводя часть своих несметных валютных резервов в желтый металл. В Конгрессе США ожидается окончательное решение вопроса о том, будет ли ФРС подвергнута серьезному аудиту - впервые за век ее существования. Если такой аудит всё-таки состоится, то полной проверке должны подвергнуться все операции Федерального резерва с золотом. Почти все серьезные эксперты ждут от этой проверки сенсационных разоблачений.  (1) Подробнее о манипуляциях «золотого картеля» см.: В.Ю. Катасонов. Золото в экономике и политике России. – М.: Анкил, 2009, с. 57-63.  (2) «IMF study in 1999 found 80 central banks lending 15% of official gold reserves». December 9, 2012 (http://www.gata.org/files/IMFGoldLendingFullStudy1999.pdf)