17 ноября, 18:13

Представитель ЕЦБ Вайдман: Плохие кредиты в Европе препятствуют совместному страхованию вкладов

Представитель Европейского центрального банка Йенс Вайдман поддержал план, принуждающий банки создавать дополнительные резервы по невозвратным кредитам, заявив, что высокий уровень таких кредитов препятствует созданию схемы страхования депозитов в блоке. ЕЦБ недавно подвергся нападкам по поводу этого плана, и его надзорный орган уже отступил, предложив задержку в осуществлении и уточнении правил. Но Вайдман, который также является президентом Бундесбанка, и рассматриваемый как потенциальный преемник Марио Драги в качестве главы ЕЦБ, сказал, что этот план был разумным, поскольку куча плохих долгов препятствует заключению соглашения о страховании вкладов. «Страхование обычно покрывает будущий ущерб, а не ущерб, который уже существует», - сказал он на конференции во Франкфурте в пятницу. «Следовательно, для того, чтобы иметь право на совместное страхование депозитов, банки в еврозоне должны либо полностью покрыть неработающие кредиты, либо избавиться от них», - сказал Вайдман. Согласно данным ЕЦБ, проблемная задолженность в банковской системе еврозоны составила около 800 млрд. евро (714,8 млрд. фунтов стерлингов) за половину 2017 года. В то время как предложение ЕЦБ касается новых неработающих кредитов, банк также планирует детализировать в первом квартале предложение об устранении существующих запасов безнадежной задолженности. «Предложения, которые недавно были сделаны ЕЦБ в этом отношении, по моему мнению, приведут к успешному разрешению проблемы», - сказал Вайдман. Германия долгое время сопротивлялась схеме совместного страхования вкладов для еврозоны, опасаясь, что немецкие налогоплательщики попадутся на крючок безответственного банковского подхода на периферии блока. Долгосрочный критик ультра-свободной денежной политики ЕЦБ, Вайдман также сказал, что политики в прошлом месяце выбрали менее агрессивные стимулы, поскольку рост был лучше, чем ожидалось, и восстановление экономики могло быть дальше, чем предполагаемые цифры инфляции. ЕЦБ в прошлом месяце в два раза сократил свои облигационные займы, направленные на снижение издержек по займам, но продлил схему на 9 месяцев до конца сентября, а также оставил ее открытой. «Мы должны быть настроены на то, что восстановление экономики продвинется дальше, чем предполагают данные по инфляции», - сказал Вайдман. «Вот почему, на мой взгляд, было бы оправдано менее резкое ослабление денежно-кредитной политики в следующем году и установление четкой даты прекращения покупки чистых активов». Предрекая впечатляющее восстановление, Вайдман сказал, что рост в Германии, крупнейшей экономике еврозоны, теперь может быть сильнее, чем прогнозировал в июне Бундесбанк. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

17 ноября, 15:04

Mueller Subpoena Spooks Dollar, Sends European Stocks, US Futures Lower

Yesterday's torrid, broad-based rally looked set to continue overnight until early in the Japanese session, when the USD tumbled and dragged down with it the USDJPY, Nikkei, and US futures following a WSJ report that Robert Mueller had issued a subpoena to more than a dozen top Trump administration officials in mid October. And as traders sit at their desks on Friday, U.S. index futures point to a lower open as European stocks fall, struggling to follow Asian equities higher as the euro strengthened at the end of a tumultuous week. Chinese stocks dropped while Indian shares and the rupee gain on Moody’s upgrade. The MSCI world equity index was up 0.1% on the day, but was heading for a 0.1% fall on the week. The dollar declined against most major peers, while Treasury yields dropped and oil rose.  Europe's Stoxx 600 Index fluctuated before turning lower as much as 0.3% in brisk volumes, dropping towards the 200-DMA, although about 1% above Wednesday’s intraday low; weakness was observed in retail, mining, utilities sectors. In the past two weeks, the basic resources sector index is down 6%, oil & gas down 5.8%, autos down 4.9%, retail down 3.4%; while real estate is the only sector in green, up 0.1%. The Stoxx 600 is on track to record a weekly loss of 1.3%, adding to last week’s sell-off amid sharp rebound in euro, global equity pullback. The Euro climbed for the first time in three days after ECB President Mario Draghi said he was optimistic for wage growth in the region, although stressed the need for patience, speaking in Frankfurt. European bonds were mixed. The pound pared some of its earlier gains after comments from Brexit Secretary David Davis signaling a continued stand-off in negotiations with the European Union. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 took its time to catch up to the WSJ report that US Special Counsel Mueller has issued a Subpoena for Russia-related documents from Trump campaign officials, although reports pointing to North Korea conducting 'aggressive' work on the construction of a ballistic missile submarine helped the selloff. The Japanese blue-chip index rose as much as 1.8% in early dealing, but the broad-based dollar retreat led to the index unwinding the bulk of its gains; the index finished the session up 0.2% as the yen jumped to the strongest in four-weeks. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.2% with IT, healthcare and telecoms leading the way, as utilities lagged. Mainland Chinese stocks fell, with the Shanghai Comp down circa 0.5% as the PBoC’s reversel in liquidity injections (overnight net drain of 10bn yuan) did little to boost risk appetite, as Kweichou Moutai (viewed as a bellwether among Chinese blue chips) fell sharply. This left the index facing its biggest weekly loss in 3 months, while the Hang Seng rallied with IT leading the way higher. Indian stocks and the currency advanced after Moody’s Investors Service raised the nation’s credit rating. The dollar was pressured even as tax reform moved a step forward given Trump-Russia probe came back into focus. Two-year Treasury yield hit a fresh high and bonds slipped. The euro stayed on course to its best week in two months as Draghi remains bullish on prospects of higher wages; the kiwi hit its lowest level since June 2016. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury yield curve remained on investors’ radar, reaching its flattest levels in a decade, reflecting a belief that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a tax overhaul expected to boost share prices if it becomes law. The legislative battle now shifts to the Senate. As Bloomberg notes, as "Washington took one step closer to tax reform and China’s central bank injected the most cash since January into its financial system this week, investors have been trying to decide if resilient global growth and strong earnings forecasts warrant sticking it out in equities. Lofty valuations contributed to fund managers paring back some exposure after global shares reached record highs earlier this month." As earnings season drew to a close with 90 percent of U.S. and European companies having reported, analysts said results were supportive but weaker than the previous quarters. “While they look good overall, the strong momentum apparent since Q1 is now fading,” said Societe Generale analysts, adding that consensus earnings estimates are no longer being raised for U.S. or euro zone stocks. As also reported on Thursday, Fed's Williams suggested that central banks should consider unconventional policy tools for use in the future, including higher inflation targets and income targeting. Williams also suggested that negative rates need to be on list of potential tools if the US enters a recession, even as he said that a December hike, followed by 3 hikes in 2018 is perfectly reasonable. "What really matters is gradual normalisation not timing, should raise rates to around 2.5% in the next couple of years" he said adding that "Low inflation in a way is lucky as it allows strong growth, however, if it does not pick up over the next few years he will re-think the rate path." Oil prices were on track for weekly losses, slipping from two-year highs hit last week on signs that U.S. supply is rising and could potentially undermine OPEC’s efforts to tighten the market. U.S. light crude stood at $55.53 a barrel, up 0.7 percent on the day but still within its trading range in the past couple of days. It was down 2.1 percent on the week. Brent futures hit a two-week low of $61.08 a barrel but last stood 0.3 percent higher at $61.53. It was down 3.1 percent for the week. Economic data today includes housing starts, building permits. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,583.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 384.06 MSCI Asia up 0.4% to 170.15 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.5% to 558.90 Nikkei up 0.2% to 22,396.80 Topix up 0.1% to 1,763.76 Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 29,199.04 Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,382.91 Sensex up 0.8% to 33,377.55 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,957.25 Kospi down 0.03% to 2,533.99 German 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 0.387% Euro up 0.2% to $1.1795 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $61.78/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 1.572% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.548% Brent Futures up 0.7% to $61.78/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,282.59 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 93.69 Top Overnight News House Republicans pass tax bill, while Senate Finance Committee approves different version Special Counsel Robert Mueller is said to have served President Donald Trump’s election campaign a subpoena in mid-October seeking documents related to Russia contacts ECB President Mario Draghi said he was confident for wage growth in the euro area While U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis said there would be some clarity on the Britain’s divorce bill with the European Union in a “a few more weeks,” there are signs that talks with EU leaders are in a new stand-off Japanese PM Shinzo Abe says he will push through initiatives to boost productivity and compile a new economic policy package next month Canada is open to a Mexican proposal to review the North American Free Trade Agreement every five years instead of ending the deal automatically if not renegotiated, which the U.S. had demanded, Reuters reports, citing two unidentified government sources Senate Panel Approves Tax Plan as GOP Leaders Gird for Battle Murdoch Has His Pick of Suitors as He Ponders Fox’s Fate; Sky Rises Most Since June on Interest From Comcast, Verizon Chinese Stocks Tumble as State Media Warning Triggers Selloff India’s First Moody’s Upgrade in 14 Years Bets on Reforms Draghi Says Confidence on Inflation Will Help Drive Wage Gains China Issues Draft Rules to Curb Asset Management Product Risks Bitcoin Flirts With Record $8,000 High, Leaving Sell-Off Behind PDVSA Looks Like a ‘Zero’ to Man Who Ran Elliott’s Argentina Bet Manafort Spent Millions on Home Updates But Numbers Don’t Add Up Tesla Seals Order From Michigan Grocery Chain for Semi Trucks Luxoft Holding Second Quarter Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates JPMorgan’s Gu Sees ‘Very Robust’ Pipeline for Hong Kong IPOs In Asia, the Nikkei 225 took its time to catch up to a report suggesting that US Special Counsel Mueller has issued a Subpoena for Russia-related documents from Trump campaign officials, although reports pointing to North Korea conducting 'aggressive' work on the construction of a ballistic missile submarine probably helped the selloff. The Japanese blue-chip index rose as much as 1.8% in early dealing, but the broad-based dollar retreat led to the index unwinding the bulk of its gains; the index finished the session up 0.2%. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.2% with IT, healthcare and telecoms leading the way, as utilities lagged. Mainland Chinese stocks fell, with the Shanghai Comp down circa 0.4% as the PBoC’s injections have done little to underscore risk appetite, as Kweichou Moutai (viewed as a bellwether among Chinese blue chips) fell sharply. This left the index facing its biggest weekly loss in 3 months, while  the Hang Seng rallied with IT leading the way higher. The PBoC injected a net CNY 810bln this week, against a net drain of CNY 230bln last week. Japanese PM Abe promised to rid the country of deflation once and for all. He pledged to use all policy tools, including tax reforms and deregulation, to push up wages in order to put an end to the country's persistent deflation he also noted that he wants to increase pressure on North Korea along with the international community. Japanese Finance Minister Aso stated that Japan is to continue to firmly escape deflation. South Korea's FX authority warned that the pace of the KRW's gains has been fast. A BoK official warned that the KRW has appreciated fast in a short time, and reiterates that FX authorities are monitoring the situation. Moody’s raised India's sovereign rating to Baa2 from Baa3, outlook to stable from positive. Top Asian News India Rating Raised by Moody’s as Reforms Boost Growth Potential China to Rein Risks in Asset Management Industry China Warning Wipes $6 Billion From Stock Loved by Goldman Erdogan Says Turkey Has Withdrawn Troops From NATO Exercise China Stocks Cap Worst Week Since August as Moutai Battered European bourses trading modestly lower this morning, with downbeat earnings weighing sentiment, while the spill-over from a soft Asian session has dented risk in Europe. Vivendi shares had been lower as much as 2% after a weak earnings update. FTSE 100 slipping slight amid the strength in GBP, which is back above 1.32 against the greenback. Comments from ECB’s Draghi have sparked some additional movement, as while largely sticking to the post-October 26 policy meeting presser he appeared more confident about the growth and inflation outlook (economic activity more self-propelling, underlying inflation to converge with headline etc). Hence, a decline in Bunds below parity to a 162.50 low, but again not yet posing a real threat to more substantial downside targets/supports. Market contacts suggest that 162.48 needs to be breached from an intraday chart perspective to bring Thursday’s 162.38 Eurex base into contention, and recall there are more/bigger stops anticipated below 162.36. On the upside, assuming 162.48 holds, yesterday’s 162.82 session high is the first proper line of resistance. Gilts have also retreated into negative territory alongside Bunds and USTs, to 124.45 vs 124.77 at best and their 124.72 previous settlement. Top European News We’ll Wait for U.K. Brexit Concessions, EU Leaders Tell May From EON to Fortum: How to Save Nasdaq’s Fading Power Market Carige Talks With Underwriters Continue as Deadline Looms Elior Plunges Most on Record as Hurricane Irma Wrecks Party Norway Idea to Exit Oil Stocks Is ‘Shot Heard Around the World’ In FX, the USD is down again, but off worst levels seen so far this week as the Index holds within a 93.500-93.900 broad range. Some respite for Dollar from progress on the tax reform bill, but another Russian-related probe into Trump’s election campaign has capped the upside. The Euro was underpinned by upbeat comments from ECB President Draghi, and holding close to 1.1800 vs the Usd. Hefty option expiries still in play from 1.1790-1.1800 through 1.18250 and up to 1.1840-50. The Yen regaining a safe-haven bid amid the latest US political challenge against the President, with Usd/Jpy down to new multi-weeklows sub-112.50. AUD/NZD is the biggest G10 losers on broad risk-off sentiment and the recovering Greenback, with Aud/Usd back below 0.7600 and Nzd/Usd even weaker under the 0.6800 handle. Note, cross flow also weakening the Kiwi as Aud/Nzd trades back at 1.1100+ levels. In commodities, Brent and WTI crude futures trading higher by 0.4% and 1.3% respectively, the latter making a break above yesterday’s at USD 55.59, however has met resistance at the USD 56 handle. Iraq/Kurd oil flow to Ceyhan rises to 254k bpd, according to Port Agent Looking at the day ahead, a slightly quieter end to the week although the ECB’s Draghi is due to give a keynote address on “Europe into a new era – how to seize the opportunities”. The Bundesbank’s Weidmann is also slated to speak while the Fed’s Williams speaks in the evening. US housing starts for October and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index for November are the data highlights. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.19m, prior 1.13m; MoM, est. 5.59%, prior -4.7% 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.25m, prior 1.22m; MoM, est. 2.04%, prior -4.5% 10am: MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, prior 1.29%; Mortgage Delinquencies, prior 4.24% 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 20.5, prior 23 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Maybe the S&P 500 will be the new hard currency of the world as nothing seems to break it at the moment. After a very nervous last week (longer in HY and EM) for markets, the S&P 500 closed +0.82% last night (best day since September 11th) and for all the recent fury and angst is only 0.34% off its’ all-time closing high. The Nasdaq gained 1.30% to a fresh all time high and the Stoxx 600 was also up for the first time in eight days. The positive reaction seems to have started in Asia yesterday, in part as commodity prices stabilised somewhat and news that China’s PBoC injected cash with the largest reverse repo operation since January. Then US markets got an additional boost from Cisco guiding to its first revenue gain in eight quarters and Wal-Mart posting its strongest US sales in more than eight years. There was also a little sentiment boost from the House passing its tax bill. This morning in Asia, markets are strengthening further. The Nikkei (+0.11%), Hang Seng (+0.78%) and Kospi (+0.28%) are all modestly up while the Shanghai Comp. is down 0.55% as we type. Moody’s upgraded India’s sovereign bond rating for the first time since 2004. It’s one notch higher to Baa2/Stable (also one notch higher than S&P’s BBB-) with the agency citing ongoing progress in economic and institutional reforms. India’s 10y bond yields is down c10bp this morning to 6.96%. Elsewhere, UST 10y has partly reversed yesterday’s moves and is trading c2bp lower. Now back to US tax reforms, which is a small step closer to resolution. The House has voted (227-205) to pass its version of the tax reform bill despite 13 Republicans dissenting. President Trump tweeted “a big step toward fulfilling our promise to deliver historic tax cuts…by the end of the year”. Notably, the more challenging task may now begin in terms of passing the Senate’s version where fiscal constraints are tighter and the Republicans only have 52 of the 100 seats in the Chamber. Overnight, the Senate Finance Committee voted to approve its revised tax package, so a full chamber vote could come as early as the  week after Thanksgiving. If passed, the two versions of the tax bill will need to be somehow reconciled. Our US economist believes there is a decent chance that some version of tax reform can be achieved, but this is likely to be a Q1 event with potential stumbling blocks along the way. Turning to the various Brexit headlines, PM May flew out last night to Sweden for an informal summit with European leaders seeking to kick start the stalled Brexit talks. She is expected to meet with the Swedish Premier and Irish counterpart before meeting with EU President Tusk on Friday. Following on, the Brexit Secretary Davis noted that we have to “wait a few more weeks” for clarity on how much UK is willing to pay in the divorce settlement. Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein tweeted “many (fellow business leaders) wish for a confirming vote on (Brexit)…so much at stake, why not make sure consensus still there?” Moving onto central bankers’ commentaries. In the US, the Fed’s Mester sounded reasonably balanced and remains supportive of continued gradual policy tightening. She noted “anecdotal feedback from business contacts suggest they are increasing wages”, but it’s going to be hard to see strong wage growth because productivity growth is low. Overall, she sees “good reasons” that inflation will rise back to 2% goal, but “it’s going to take a little longer…” The Fed’s Williams noted one more rate hike this year and three more in 2018 remains a “reasonable guess” subject to incoming data. Finally, the Fed’s Kaplan  reiterated the Fed would continue to make progress towards achieving its 2% inflation target, but noted that the neutral fed funds rate is “not that far away”. In the UK, BOE Governor Carney reiterated that interest rates would probably rise “a couple of times over the next few years” if the economy evolved in line with the Bank’s projections, but also cautioned that the fundamental economic impacts of Brexit will only be “known over a very long period of time”. That said, he noted the BOE will remain nimble and support the economy no matter what the result of the Brexit negotiations will be. Elsewhere, Chancellor Hammond has confirmed that the Treasury does not plan to change the inflation gauge that the BOE targets from CPI to CPIH – which includes owner occupied housing costs and is the new preferred price measure by the Office for National Statistics. Now recapping other markets performance yesterday. Within the S&P, only the energy and utilities sector were modestly in the red (-0.58%), partly weighed down by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund plans to sell c$40bln of energy related stocks to make it less vulnerable to the sector. Elsewhere, gains were led by telco, consumer staples and tech stocks. European markets were all higher, with the DAX and CAC up c0.6% while the FTSE 100 was the relative underperformer at +0.19%. The VIX index dropped 10.4% to 11.76. Over in government bonds, UST 10y yields rose 5.3bp following the House’s approval of the tax plans and a solid beat for industrial production, while Gilts also rose 2.3bp, in part due to slightly stronger retail sales figures. Other core bond yields were little changed (10y Bunds flat, OATs -0.4bp), while Italian yields marginally underperformed (+0.5bp), partly reflecting that Banca Carige has failed to get banks to underwrite its planned share sale - making a bail in more likely, as well as recent polls (eg: Ipsos) showing the 5SM party taking a modest lead versus peers. Elsewhere, some of the recent pressure in the HY space appears to be reversing with the Crossover index 9.2bp tighter. Key currencies were little changed, with the US dollar index up 0.13% while Sterling gained 0.18% and Euro fell 0.18%. In commodities, WTI oil dipped 0.34% yesterday but is trading marginally higher this morning after Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its willingness to extend oil cuts at the November 30 OPEC meeting. Elsewhere, precious metals were slightly higher (Gold +0.03%; Silver +0.54%) while other base metals continue to softened, although losses are moderating (Copper -0.17%; Zinc -0.84%; Aluminium -0.35%). Away from the markets, our US economists have published their latest outlook for the US economy. They note the US economy is on good footing for continued above-trend growth in 2018 and beyond. Overall, they believe private sector fundamentals are broadly sound, the labour market has more than achieved full employment and financial conditions are highly supportive of growth. On real GDP growth, their forecast for 2018 is unchanged at 2.3%, but 2019 is up a tenth to 2.1% while growth in 2020 is expected to slow to 1.5% as monetary policy tightening gains traction. The Unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% by early 2019, so although inflation should remain low through year-end, our team’s medium-term view that core inflation should normalise is intact. Hence, in terms of rates outlook, they still expect the next rate increase in December, followed by three hikes in 2018 and four more in 2019. Elsewhere, tax reform is a wild card, though it faces significant political challenges. Conversely, potential disruptions to trade policy would be a negative development. For more detail, refer to their note. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the October IP was above expectations at 0.9% mom (vs. 0.5%) and 2.9% yoy – the highest since January 2015, in part as the post storm recovery efforts gets underway. Aggregate capacity utilization was also beat at 77% (vs. 76.3% expected) – highest since April 2015 and the NAHB housing market index was also above at 70 (vs. 67) – highest since March. Elsewhere, the November Philly Fed index was slightly below expectations but still solid at 22.7 (vs. 24.6 expected), with both the new orders and employment indices above 20. Finally, the weekly initial jobless claims was slightly higher (249k vs. 235k expected), perhaps impacted by the delayed filings following the storms and the Veteran’s day holiday, while continuing claims fell to a new 44 year low (1,860k vs. 1,900k expected). In the UK, core retail sales (ex-auto fuel) for October slightly beat expectations, at 0.1% mom (vs. flat expected) and -0.3% yoy (vs. -0.4% expected). In the Eurozone, the final reading for October CPI was unrevised at 0.1% mom and 1.4% yoy, but France’s 3Q unemployment was slightly higher than expected at 9.7% (vs. 9.5%). Looking at the day ahead, a slightly quieter end to the week although the ECB’s Draghi is due to give a keynote address on “Europe into a new era – how to seize the opportunities”. The Bundesbank’s Weidmann is also slated to speak while the Fed’s Williams speaks in the evening. US housing starts for October and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index for November are the data highlights.

17 ноября, 12:15

How Corporate Zombies Are Threatening The Eurozone Economy

The recovery in Eurozone growth has become part of the synchronised global growth narrative that most investors are relying on to deliver further gains in equities as we head into 2018. However, the “Zombification” of a chunk of the Eurozone’s corporate sector is not only a major unaddressed structural problem, but it’s getting worse, especially in…you guessed it…Italy and Spain. According to the WSJ. The Bank for International Settlements, the Basel-based central bank for central banks, defines a zombie as any firm which is at least 10 years old, publicly traded and has interest expenses that exceed the company’s earnings before interest and taxes. Other organizations use different criteria. About 10% of the companies in six eurozone countries, including France, Germany, Italy and Spain are zombies, according to the central bank’s latest data. The percentage is up sharply from 5.5% in 2007. In Italy and Spain, the percentage of zombie companies has tripled since 2007, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated in January. Italy’s zombies employed about 10% of all workers and gobbled up nearly 20% of all the capital invested in 2013, the latest year for which figures are available. The WSJ explains how the ECB’s negative interest rate policy and corporate bond buying are  keeping a chunk of the corporate sector, especially in southern Europe on life support. In some cases, even the life support of low rates and debt restructuring is not preventing further deterioration in their metrics. These are the true “Zombie” companies who will probably never come back from being “undead”, i.e. technically dead but still animate. Belatedly, there is some realisation of the risks. Economists and central bankers say zombies undercut prices charged by healthier competitors, create artificial barriers to entry and prevent the flushing out of weak companies and bad loans that typically happens after downturns. Now that the European economy is in growth mode, those zombies and their related debt problems could become a drag on the entire continent.   “The zombification of the corporate sector and banks (is) a risk for future living standards,” Klaas Knot, a European Central Bank governor and the head of the Dutch central bank, said in an interview.   In some ways, zombie firms are an unintended side effect of years of easy money from the ECB, which rolled out aggressive stimulus policies, including negative interest rates, to support lending and growth. Those policies have been sharply criticized in some richer eurozone countries for making it easier for banks to keep struggling corporate borrowers alive. Talking of realising the risk, as usual the Bundesbank is acting as Mario Draghi silent conscience. The ECB said in late October it would extend its giant bond-buying program through next September, likely pushing back the date of any interest-rate increase until at least 2019. A small group of central-bank officials opposed the decision, including Jens Weidmann, president of Germany’s Bundesbank. In a speech in September, Mr. Weidmann cited an academic study that concluded a bond-buying program by the ECB in 2012 had helped stabilize banks in southern Europe and boost lending but resulted in more loans to weak companies by the same banks. There was no positive impact on employment or investment, the study found. The WSJ focuses on two industries with structural challenges, namely retail and shipping, and begins with a company which is an archetypal Zombie, Stefanel. Italian clothing maker and retailer Stefanel SpA became famous for its knitted coats and cardigans. Many economists, investors and bankers know Stefanel as something starkly different: a zombie company. It has posted an annual loss for nine of the last 10 years and restructured its bank debt at least six times, including several grace periods when Stefanel only had to pay interest on what it owed. After booming during Italy’s post-World War II expansion, Stefanel and its lumbering factories were overwhelmed by Spanish fast-fashion giant Zara and then battered by the economic slowdown that hit Italy in 2008. Stefanel is still alive but staggering. So are hundreds of other chronically unprofitable, highly indebted companies being kept afloat with new infusions from lenders and shareholders, especially in Southern Europe. As the WSJ goes on to highlight, even the radical corporate and debt restructuring of Stefanel has only reduced its debt by 12%. Banks restructured Stefanel’s debt even when the apparel maker’s financial problems worsened. The banks continued to collect interest, and some of the loans were repaid, but their decisions not to wipe the debt off their balance sheets meant the banks had less money for healthy firms. Stefanel’s lenders included Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, where bad loans peaked at nearly $58 billion in 2016. The Italian government took over the bank earlier this year. The bank and Stefanel declined to comment. As part of a new restructuring plan, two distressed-debt funds will get a 71% stake in Stefanel by year-end for about $13 million. Giuseppe Stefanel, the founder’s son and company’s largest shareholder, will wind up with a stake of about 16%, down from his previous 56%. Banks owed $125 million by Stefanel will see that decline to about $110 million. Banks demanded that Mr. Stefanel give up control and step down as chief executive as a precondition for approving the turnaround plan, according to a person familiar with the matter. Mr. Stefanel will remain non-executive chairman and “have no control whatsoever,” the person said. Mr. Stefanel declined to comment. We fear that this is unlikely to be enough to see Stefanel through the next downturn. But it’s not just southern Europe, German banks have been the largest lenders to the struggling shipping industry, where Zombie companies abound. Moody’s estimated that the five biggest German lenders to the shipping industry had roughly $26 billion of distressed shipping loans at the end of last year. This is a ratio of 37% compared with total shipping loans and was up from 28% the year before.   The relationship between Nordeutsche Vermoegen and HSH Nordbank is the example the WSJ cites to show how are keeping companies alive, barely. From the WSJ. “Some of these zombie companies are getting financed at (interest rates of) 2% because banks are trying to throw good money after bad,” said Basil Karatzas, a shipping-industry consultant in New York…German shipping company Norddeutsche Vermoegen Holding GmbH & Co. KG suffered total losses of $1.1 billion from 2010 to 2015. Its debt quadrupled to more than $2 billion, or almost nine times revenue, from 2007 to 2010. The companthe “Zombification” of a chunk of the Eurozone’s corporate sector is not only a major unaddressed structural problem, but it’s getting worsey hasn’t reported annual results for 2016. In 2016, Norddeutsche Vermoegen got a half-billion euros in debt relief from HSH Nordbank, a German bank that was until recently the world’s largest lender to the shipping industry. According to the shipping company’s financial statements, Norddeutsche Vermoegen made a profit due to “loan forgiveness by the bank.” Norddeutsche Vermoegen and HSH Nordbank declined to comment. The gravity of the situation has warranted greater scrutiny by the ECB as the article explains. Back in May, the ECB announced on-site inspection for banks with exposure to distressed shipping debt. In a speech earlier this month, Draghi acknowledged the bad debt problem, while lamenting that many banks lack the ability to absorb losses. “We all know the damage that persistently high levels of NPLs can do to banks’ health and credit growth. And though NPL levels have been coming down for significant institutions – from around 7.5 per cent in early 2015 to 5.5 per cent now – the problem is not yet solved. “Many banks still lack the ability to absorb large losses, as their ratio of bad loans to capital and provisions remains high,” he said. The ECB faces a Catch-22, pressing banks to address the problem more aggressively not only threatens the banks, but the provision of credit to the broader economy. The WSJ highlights the Morgan Stanley view that a resolution in Italy, for example, will last a decade. Italian banks have set aside half of the value of their $407 billion in gross problem loans at the end of 2016, according to the country’s central bank. That means the banks would be hit with billions of euros in additional losses if they sell the loans. Many lenders would rather hold on to the shaky loans and hope for the best. The ECB proposed last month requiring banks to set aside more cash to cover newly classified bad loans. The proposal was criticized by senior Italian officials, including former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.   “If they pass new rules, credit to small businesses will be impossible,” he wrote on Twitter. Some banks in Italy have begun to tackle the problem, including by announcing plans to sell billions of dollars of bad loans within three years. Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate it will take the country’s banks 10 years to reach the European average for nonperforming loans. This impressive piece of journalism ends on a thought-provoking note from Portugal which perfectly describes the endless suffering of the corporate “undead” in structurally challenged industries. In Portugal, a program set up in 2012 by the government as part of the country’s bailout aimed to help heavily indebted companies reach agreements with creditors, avoid insolvency and free up money to invest and grow. In practice, the revitalization program can discourage banks from pulling the plug on battered companies, said Antonio Samagaio, an accounting professor at ISEG-Lisbon School of Economics and Management. The reason: The program allows lenders to take fewer write-downs because debt that isn’t forgiven still is considered performing for accounting purposes. Lisgráfica Impressão e Artes Gráficas SA, one of Portugal’s largest printers, entered the program in early 2013. Banks forgave 65% of the company’s debt and agreed to extend repayments. That helped Lisgráfica to keep most of its workers on the job. Now, though, Lisgráfica is having trouble making its debt payments. The company’s revenue has been hurt by the advertising decline at newspaper and magazine clients. Lisgráfica’s losses are widening. Of course, at the heart of these structural problems are the failure by central banks to, firstly not create an artificial sense of prosperity via credit bubbles, but secondly, to accept some shorter-term pain for longer-term free-market gain. As Schumpter asserted “The process of creative destruction is the essential fact about capitalism”, but this isn't capitalism.   

15 ноября, 16:39

Регуляторы ФРГ поддержали новые банковские правила

Германские регуляторы поддерживают компромисс по поводу принятия новых глобальных правил банковской деятельности, направленных на то, чтобы избежать повторения финансового кризиса 2007 г., заявил их представитель, передает Reuters.

15 ноября, 16:39

Регуляторы ФРГ поддержали новые банковские правила

Германские регуляторы поддерживают компромисс по поводу принятия новых глобальных правил банковской деятельности, направленных на то, чтобы избежать повторения финансового кризиса 2007 года, заявил их представитель, передает Reuters.

14 ноября, 21:05

Future Of Digital Currencies: Former Buba Head & The FT Get Horribly Muddled

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Of all people… The former head of the conservative Bundesbank believes that central banks need to embrace digital currencies and he’s concerned that they’re being left behind. This might be interesting, we thought. Axel Weber has been talking to the FT but, it turns out, he hasn’t shaken off his bureaucratic roots since he took on the Chairmanship of UBS. Instead of embracing Bitcoin, Ethereum, decentralisation and private enterprise, Weber thinks central banks, and the likes of UBS, will benefit from creating their own versions. According to the FT. Central banks should be more open to creating digital versions of their currencies, which could offer significant benefits to society, the chairman of Swiss bank UBS says. Axel Weber is a past president of Germany’s conservative Bundesbank — and was once tipped as a future head of the European Central Bank. As UBS chairman, he is helping to drive a revolution in how banks, companies and individuals conduct financial transactions. In an interview with the Financial Times, he now worries his former public sector colleagues may be left behind.   “Whilst the official sector very often looks at the risks of these new means of payment, the private sector tends to look at the opportunities they offer,” he says. What’s worse, a central banker or a central banker who thinks his time in the private sector makes him somehow superior to his former colleagues. Uggh. Anyway, rather than highlighting the transparency and money trail aspects of Bitcoin and its ilk, Weber sees tighter regulation to crack down on…you guessed it…the usual nefarious list of crimes which the authorities have proved incapable of policing for decades before Bitcoin was conceived. The FT continues. The chairman argues the issue is not the volatility of bitcoin prices - the currency is “simply too insignificant to matter” from a financial stability perspective. It’s more that the threat of the crypto world financing terrorism or enabling money laundering will eventually prompt a stronger response from authorities. There is “a relatively high probability that regulators will regulate it at some point”. Now the FT, possibly influenced by comments from Weber, begins to get itself muddled, arguing that central bank-created digital currencies would, in contrast to Bitcoin, act as stores of value. Because…they would be “backed by the monetary authorities”. Less clear cut, however, are likely to be arguments over digital currencies issued by central banks. Like cash, which they could eventually replace — but unlike bitcoin — they would be backed by monetary authorities, so they would also act as a store of value as well as widely accepted means of payment. In China, the central bank has said it will develop a digital currency using the blockchain technology behind bitcoin. In Europe, Sweden’s Riksbank published a report in September suggesting there were few obstacles to issuing e-krona. But other central banks have been much more cautious. Jens Weidmann, Mr Weber’s successor as Bundesbank president, argued the focus should instead be on improving existing payment systems. Like the Bundesbank, the Swiss National Bank is not convinced of the need for central bank e-currencies. The question of infinite versus finite supply was not mentioned. Moving on… If conventional fiat currencies were genuine stores of value, they should be a haven in times of panic, obviously. Instead, the FT fears that customers could exacerbate bank runs by switching funds out of fiat into digital currencies in a crisis. There are fears that in times of panic, customers could quickly switch funds out of normal bank accounts and into e-currencies, exacerbating bank runs. Germans and Swiss also remain heavy users of cash - unlike Swedes. While Weber makes the valid point that digital currencies can reduce the cost of payment services and provide transparency, the FT article articulates the benefits in a surprisingly narrow way. Mr Weber, however, says central banks are wrong to think it is a case of either traditional cash or e-currencies. Payment patterns evolve, he says, with younger generations more likely to pay via mobiles, independently of banks. If central banks regarded digital currencies as an opportunity, they could “probably provide non-account-related payment services for society in a cheaper and more economic way”.   The advantages would be most apparent in geographically large countries, where cash transport is expensive — such on the African continent. Mr Weber envisages digital currencies not having the anonymity of cash — indeed features in the currency could identify users, so minors could be prevented from buying alcohol, for instance. But the technology would have to be hacker-proof. “It has to be a very secure means of payment.” In true bureaucrat fashion, however, UBS is developing its own digital currency which will use blockchain technology to enhance its settlement process. Meanwhile, UBS is pressing ahead with its own digital currency. It is working with other banks, including Barclays, Credit Suisse and HSBC, on a “utility settlement coin”. It would use the same distributed ledger technology as blockchain and could be used to clear and settle financial transactions. The idea is that “coins” used for transactions would be backed by cash held in accounts at central banks. They would be safer and quicker than current systems based around a single centre counterparty. Mr Weber reports “an openness by central banks to hear about the concept” but admits the scheme is a long way from becoming operational. Like JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon, Weber is pushing the “Blockchain is good, Bitcoin is bad narrative”. Debate about the future of digital currencies has been overshadowed by the hype over bitcoin. Does Mr Weber worry a bitcoin crash might set back digital currency pioneers? The UBS chairman is adamant it will not. “People do…draw the distinction between the construction of bitcoin or cryptocurrencies as they are now, and the potential that the underlying technology has,” he says. Weber holds back in the article from laying out the globalists’ wish for a digital world currency, but we have little doubt that he would, if asked. We were reminded again of the famous Economist cover from 1988, which predicted a world currency in 2018…with that slashed zero symbol in the middle of the coin. Slashed zero from Wikipedia: The slashed zero glyph is often used to distinguish the digit "zero" ("0") from the Latin script letter "O" anywhere that the distinction needs emphasis, particularly in encoding systems, scientific and engineering applications, computer programming (such as software development), and telecommunications. (H/T Ned Naylor-Leyland, Old Mutual Global Investors) 

14 ноября, 14:03

German Q3 GDP Growth Smashes Expectations

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German GDP growth for Q3 2017 printed at 0.8% Q/Q, easily beating the consensus estimate of 0.6%, which was in line with growth in the previous quarter, driven by fixed capital formation amid stable household and government consumption. While year-on-year GDP growth was reported as 2.3%, the underlying growth was 2.8% after adjusting for calendar effects. The data confirmed that German growth was on track for its best year since 2011, and pushed the EUR higher for the fifth day, rising above 1.1700 for the first time in 3 weeks. More from Bloomberg: The German economy powered ahead in the third quarter, underpinning a recovery in the euro area.... Output increased 2.8 percent from a year earlier when adjusted for working days. The report confirms the Bundesbank’s prediction that the German economy carried its strong growth momentum into the second half, putting it on course for its best performance since 2011 and potentially straining up against its maximum capacity…“   You can feel the German economy is really humming along,” Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea Markets in Copenhagen, said before the release. “We are looking at a pretty robust picture so that raises the question: where is the speed limit?” Germany’s Federal statistics office noted that the stronger-than-expected growth was driven by exports and capital investment. Spending on equipment was reported to be particularly strong. With hindsight, this shouldn’t be that much of a surprise as both “hard” and “soft” indicators – especially in the manufacturing sector - have shown accelerating momentum in 2017. The September manufacturing PMI reading for September 2017 of 60.6 was a 77-month high and printed at the same level in October 2017, implying that the momentum has carried forward into the last quarter of the year. However, if there was one small negative in today's German data, it was the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment: for November 2017, the expectations indicator rose 1.1 points from 17.6 the previous month to 18.7, below the 19.5 consensus. On an encouraging note for the Eurozone, while Germany remains the foundation of growth, it is more broadly spread than it’s ever been. Indeed, the better-than-expected growth across Europe was the basis for the IMF’s upgrade to its 2017 GDP forecast of 3.6%, the fastest growth since 2010. From Bloomberg: While Germany has long been an engine of expansion for the euro area thanks to robust domestic demand and striving exports, the rest of the region is finally catching up. Differences in growth rates between member states have shrunk to the smallest in the region’s history and the European Commission said last week that the 19-nation region will grow this year at its fastest pace in a decade. The International Monetary Fund said on Monday that strengthening growth across the European region - which includes the euro area as well as developing economies in the central and eastern part of the continent - is spilling over into the rest of the world. The brighter prospects accounted for the bulk of the upward revision to its global outlook in October. The GDP news will be gratefully received by Chancellor Angela Merkel as she continues the tricky coalition negotiations with the pro-business Free Democrats and the Green Party which, as Reuters notes, is “an alliance untested at the national level”. Back to Bloomberg: Chancellor Angela Merkel entered the final stretch of preliminary talks to form a new government, with factions in the complex multi-party negotiations remaining far apart. Any decisions taken by the future coalition partners on whether to cut taxes or funnel more money into education and digital infrastructure will impact Germany’s growth prospects. The rate of economic expansion over the next two years looks set to exceed the pace that’s sustainable in the long term. While the Eurozone’s structural problems remain unaddressed and the ECB’s ability to wind back its stimulus remains untested, the worst part of Germany's economic strength and the broader Eurozone resurgence, is that a host ECB bureaucrats will be putting themselves forward to take the credit. Uh-oh, too late… The European Central Bank is taking credit for putting the economy back on its feet after a sovereign-debt crisis produced record unemployment and near-deflation, and threatened the survival of the currency union. Vice President Vitor Constancio said on Monday policy makers have been “highly successful” in driving the recovery by cutting interest rates below zero and buying more than 2 trillion euros ($2.3 billion) in assets, mostly government bonds. His Executive Board colleague Benoit Coeure argued that the region’s upswing is probably the strongest in almost two decades in terms of “robustness and balance,” creating scope for structural reforms that would come as policy makers scale back monetary stimulus.

13 ноября, 01:05

Stockman Warns "Mind The Junk" - This Ain't Your Grandfather's Capitalism

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, The financial system is loaded with anomalies, deformations and mispricings - outcomes which would never occur on an honest free market. For example, the junk bond yield at just 2% in Europe is now below that of the "risk-free" US treasury bond owing solely to the depredations of the ECB. Indeed, madman Draghi has purchased $2.6 trillion of securities since launching QE in March 2015, and during the interim has actually bought more government debt than was issued by all the socialist governments of the EU-19 combined! Outrunning Europe's deficit-addicted welfare states is quite a feat in itself, but that wasn't the half of it. The ECB's printing press became so parched for government debt to buy that it has ended up owning more than $120 billion of corporate bonds. In some recent cases, the ECB has actually taking down 20% or more of new corporate issues---an action that surely leaves the fastidious founders of its Bundesbank prodecessor turning in their graves. In turn, the ECB's Big Fat Thumb on the investment grade scale stampeded fund managers into the junk market in quest of yield, especially for BB rated paper which makes up 75% of the European high yield market. So doing, these return hungry managers have crushed the the yield on the Merrill Lynch junk bond index, driving it down from 6.4% in early 2106 to an incredible 2.002% last week. That is to say, leveraged speculators in European junk have made 100% plus returns over the last 20 months on dodgy paper that should be yielding double or triple its current rate. In fact, the current lunatic euro-trash yield is completely off the historical charts. Euro-junk rarely yielded under 5% in the past, and had spiked to upwards of 10% at the time of Draghi's "whatever it takes" ukase, which, in turn, was modest compared to the 25% blow-0ff high during the depths of the financial crisis. Then again, there has rarely been a greater gift to speculators. The front-runners who took Draghi at his word back in 2012 have made 1000% returns. On bonds! Needless to say, these utterly false price signals would never occur on the free market. Yet by attracting tens of billions of yield-seeking capital into radically mispriced securities in pursuit of the giant windfalls depicted above, the ECB has not only set-up speculators for massive losses, but also badly distorted the macro-economy in the process. That is, after years of ZIRP Europe's business sector has become populated with debt-ridden zombies which survive only because their interest carry costs have essentially been eliminated. Consequently, the free market's essential function of pruning the deadwood and re-allocating inefficiently used resources has been stopped cold on much of the continent. But to add insult to injury, Draghi has given these zombies the financial equivalent of mouth-to-mouth respiration. That is, the ECB has made junk bond yields so cheap that debt-encumbered businesses have been able to further extend and pretend----that is, refinance higher cost bank lines and earlier bond issues with 2% money; it's just another example of a central bank driven refi machine at work. Even the US debt junkies have gotten in on the act---with North American issuers estimated to place more than $125 billion in the euro-debt market during 2017---including upwards of $20 billion of high yield bonds. The pitifully low yield on these issues, in turn, has been arbed across the Atlantic, meaning further suppression of rates in the New York dollar markets. Needless to say, any free market economist worth his salt recognizes the long-run folly of subsidizing loss making companies. But there is also a larger and more immediate repercussion for the day-traders and robo-machines which prowl the casino in search of instant riches. To wit, the central bank fueled scramble for yield among bond managers----and especially those running open-end bond funds-----has created a giant trading trap. Owing to the explosion of corporate, real estate and sovereign debt since the turn of the century, there are now trillions of bonds held by investment vehicles subject to daily redemptions. At the same time, the drastic shrinkage of dealer balance sheets since the traumas of 2008 and the subsequent avalanche of Dodd-Frank regulatory harassment means that true liquidity has all but disappeared from the bond market----and most especially the high yield sector which has nearly doubled in size since the crisis. What that adds up to----trillions of paper funded with what amounts to mutual fund demand deposits in a market with drastically shrunken dealer liquidity---is not hard to imagine. Namely, the punters who have been pleasured with vast riches by the ECB are now getting 2% yields for the privilege of evenutally being crushed by what will be the mother of all bank runs. Not only has the absolute yield level on junk been badly distorted by the ECB's heavy handed buying (it now owns upward of 12% all euro-area corporate bonds), but the all important spread against the risk free rate has also been crushed. In recent months it actually broke through 150 basis points, representing half the level prevailing as recently as June 2016. Stated differently, Draghi----like all other Keynesian central bankers----is pleased to believe that he is deftly guiding the great macro-variables of GDP, inflation, growth and wages. In fact, the ECB's heavy intrusion in money and capital markets have demolished the price signaling mechanisms of the financial system, turning yields, spreads and asset prices into momentum-driven noise. And "noise" is the word for it because sustained central bank financial repression infects and deforms all financial information. Indeed, this kind of fake financial information is what causes the talking heads of bubblevision to ignore the aforementioned mispricings and spread narrowings. They believe it's all warranted. That is to say, credit loss rates have plunged into subterranean levels---so what's to worry? Arguably, even today miserly 5.6% yield in the US junk market (see below) more than covers inflation and realized default rates of 2-3% recorded during recent years. Except they don't. What the graph below actually shows is the cyclically punctuated impact of the great game of kicking the financial can. Central bank financial repression engenders a scramble for yield during the expansion phase of the cycle which permits all except the most hopeless borrowers to refinance, thereby avoiding default by hitting the restart button. This extend and pretend "refi" cycle is identical to what happened to the subprime mortgage market prior to the housing crash. Default rates were unusually low as long as the cripples could be refinanced, but when new mortgage funding dried up Warren Buffett's famous aphorism about naked swimmers exposed by a receding tide came true in spades. Default rates suddenly soared, causing the mortgage crisis to spring to life seemingly out of nowhere. In effect, interest rate repression causes default rate suppression, thereby turning standard financial information into misleading statistical noise. The world's $4 trillion junk debt market is the next poster boy for exactly that kind of springing default surge. If you look at maturity schedules, in fact, you see a huge bow-wave building-up from 2018-2022. Subtract seven years for the standard bond term and you get exactly the valley in default rates shown below for 2011 thru 2016. That is, the refi machine was working overtime. Most everyone paid or PIK'd (paid in kind) because the yield starved market was desperately hungry for product. So hungry, in fact, that nearly $200 billion of junk has been issued to fund dividends to LBO sponsors. Moreover, even the slight default rate bulge in 2016 was not due to the refi machine faltering so much as it reflected some very big and concentrated defaults in the shale patch. Even then, it is crucially important to understand that the historical long-term default average of 4% is not nearly what it is cracked-up to be. That's because the modern age of original issue junk finance (as opposed to "fallen angels" in the secondary markets that Michael Milken pioneered before 1984) is essentially coterminous with the Greenspan era of Bubble Finance. Accordingly, the two big spikes in the chart below represent a case of defaultus interuptus. Before the markets could be fully purged of the rotten credits which had built up earlier, the Fed flooded Wall Street with liquidity in 2001-2003 and again in 2008-09, thereby igniting a bid for deeply discounted junk as measured by yields that hit 20% or higher. In turn, as yields were driven back toward the normal range early speculators pocketed enormous capital gains, triggering an additional surge of capital into the market. At length, ample demand for junk bonds enabled a renewed cycle of extend and pretend. But here's the thing. The Fed is out of dry powder and stranded close to the zero-bound, as is the ECB, the BOJ, the BOE and most other central banks. Accordingly, this time there will be no massive central bank reflation and no consequent rip-your-face-off rally in busted junk. That is to say, it will be a case of "no ticky, no washy". When the current bow wave of maturities unfolds over the next five years, the refi machine is likely to be severely disabled, if not shutdown entirely in the context of central bank balance sheet normalization and rising yields. Yet in the absence of extend and pretend refi, defaults will rise significantly, thereby triggering capital flight from the junk market. And then there will follow a downward spiral of busted maturities and even further increases in the default rate. In short, the go-forward default rate is like to be a lot more than the 4% historical average, and its likely to hang around the basket for years to come. At that point, noise will give way to signal. But not of a good kind for speculators. Needless to say, if bond yields should equal inflation, credit losses and return, there's no room for all three in the current 5.6% yield on the US junk bond index. Indeed, the chart below exhibits a double whammy of Fed financial repression. The 10--year treasury yield at 2.33% today barely covers inflation---to say nothing of an after-tax return. But only three points of spread on top of that is completely ludicrous. It can't begin to compensate for the drastically heightened risks of a business expansion which is already 101 months old and default rates that are fixing to spring out of their extend and pretend disguise. In this context, we must note again that the GOP is missing what ails the American economy by a country mile. Republicans have become like the proverbial carpenter whose only tool is a hammer. So everything in the economic world looks like a nail---that is, a situation that can be remedied by a tax cut. Not at all. The entire signaling system of American capitalism has been destroyed by the Fed. The lowest interest rates and capital cost in recorded history have not caused an explosion of capital spending and growth-enhancing productivity as intended. In fact, real net business investment is still 35% below its turn of the century level, but that isn't due to high or rising taxes or inadequate after-tax returns. To the contrary, capital is being artificially diverted into unprodutive speculative arenas. Central bank yield suppression has spurred massive amounts of financial engineering in the C-suites in response to the demand for never ending appreciation of secondary assets in the casino. As we indicated yesterday: ..... the growth and jobs problem in America originates in the Fed, not the IRS code; and that by focusing on the latter----even as it punts on the former---- the GOP is truly earning its moniker as the Stupid Party.   That is, Trump and the GOP Senate potentially have five seats to fill on the Fed and could therefore end the current baleful regime of massive, fraudulent money printing and the destructive falsification of financial asset prices which inherently results therefrom.   So doing, they could bring honest price discovery, risk exposure, financial discipline and efficient two-way markets back into the Wall Street casino. Allowing free markets to clear the price of money, debt and stocks, in turn, would quickly shut down the financial engineering mania that now obsesses the corporate C-suites and which has caused trillions of corporate cash flow and balance sheet capacity to be diverted to stock buybacks, M&A deals and LBOs. Needless to say, restoration of honest price discovery on Wall Street is not going to happen any time soon with a "low interest guy" in the Oval Office and another one soon to take the helm at the Fed. Indeed,  Jerome Powell voted for the destructive financial repression described above 44 consecutive times during his tenure on the Fed since early 2012. Accordingly, what passes for financial markets will remain in fantasy-land for a time longer, deluded by the fake signals embedded in the in-coming economic and financial noise. As one bond manager noted in response to the hiccup in the high yield market during the past 10 days, why worry? “There’s stress in significant pieces of the markets, like health care and telecom, and I am not ignoring them,” Ken Monaghan, director of global high yield at Amundi Pioneer, said in an interview. “But we aren’t seeing some sort of cataclysmic event on the horizon, and I am not expecting many sleepless nights anytime soon.” Well, here's why sleepless nights are exactly what will be coming down the pike right soon. Among many things that would not exist in an honest financial market are most LBO's. These are the ultimate financial engineering scheme enabled by cheap junk debt and a central bank safety net under extreme leverage. Moreover, crashing LBOs were a material component of the crash back in 2008, but self-evidently no lessons were learned. Virtually all of the $10-$40 billion zombies from that era were eventually refinanced and "restructured" in a soaring junk bond market. Not surprisingly, LBO volumes have been steadily building---although the number of companies left in America that have not been squeezed lean and mean by existing options chasing managements are few and far between. In fact, an increasing share of buyouts are second and third generation LBOs-----the work of private equity punters swapping their debt mules. And they are doing so at the highest prices in history--without regard for the cardinal fact that the era of falling yields and relentlessly declining cap rates is over. Even if these LBOs made economic sense, which they don't, they should be exhibiting falling valuation multiples as the era of QT and monetary normalization sets in. Stated differently, the private equity boys are pricing deals based on the artificially low cost of the junk debt in their capital structures---plus an equity multiple that assumes that current stock market bubble will never correct. Indeed, as shown below, the equity multiple of 4.7X is now 30% higher than it was back in 2007 on the eve of the last great bubble collapse. And that gets us back to our theme. The present world of monetary central planning and relentless financial repression has produced endless deformations and anomalies that would not exist on the free market. They are therefore not sustainable in the present world, either, because at the end of the day even central banks cannot defy the laws of economics and sound finance indefinitely. So there will be crashing LBOs, bleeding junk bonds and plunging stock market indices in the roadway just ahead. Indeed, that something is very wrong in Denmark, in fact, was dramatized  by today's story de jure in the financial press. To wit, it seems that Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates have more net worth ($280 billion) than the bottom 50% of the US population; and that the Forbes 400 has more net worth than the bottom two-thirds of all American households. That wouldn't happen on the free market, either. So mind the junk. What is now unfolding is most definitely not your grandfather's kind of capitalist prosperity.

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10 ноября, 18:54

Disorderly Brexit is possible, warns senior Bundesbank official

Dombret hopes for supervisory co-operation, but tells banks to prepare for “no deal”

08 ноября, 14:51

Bank Stocks, Dollar Slide Hit By Fresh Tax Reform Doubts

U.S. equity futures are little changed as European and Asian shares retreated, led by sliding bank stocks and a drop in the dollar as doubts over republican tax cuts and ongoing bond curve flattening hurt sentiment and prompted fresh questions over the viability of the US expansion. Investor concerns also returned to geopolitics as Trump continued his tour of Asia with a mission of rallying the world to stand up to the North Korean threat. Calling out by name Russia and China, he said Wednesday that all responsible nations must join forces to deny Kim Jong Un’s regime any form of support. As Bloomberg reports, Trump is also expected to discuss trade with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. But the biggest overnight catalyst was a renewed fear about the fate of GOP tax cuts, as fresh doubts emerged about tax reform progress after the Washington Post reported Senate Republican leaders were considering holding cuts back by a year, while they are also said to be considering repealing deductions for state and local taxes. Derek Halpenny, head of research at Mitsubishi UFJ in London told Reuters he was dubious over the progress of the tax cuts program being urged by U.S. President Donald Trump’s campaign. “The initial phases of discussions within the House (of Representatives) have brought up a lot of divisions and problems ... If the story is true that they’re considering a delay of one year to the corporate tax cut, those big differences will need to be sorted,” he said. Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Prime Partners, said the doubts over the tax issue reinforce the case for some consolidation in the market, which has been fully priced for good news. “It’s something that would impact the domestic stocks in the U.S. and would be a setback for the market in general (and) it’s more than stock specific as people would reassess earnings growth expectations to the downside,” he said. In addition to hitting the dollar, tax fears also led to renewed flattening in the yield curve, which sent Goldman shares 1.5% lower and weighed the most on the main stock index. The 2s10s curve dropped below 69bps and has now flattened for 8 sessions in a row which is the longest run since November 2015. The 5s30s curve also fell below 79bps and both are at 10 year lows. Clearly rates markets are saying something about the prospect of the tax bill as it stands so it’ll be interesting to see if that changes when we see the Senate version.  Ongoing flattening, which precedes an inversion, also implies that investors are expecting a slowdown if not recession.   European bonds were also snared by yield curve flattening, with yields on long-term German bonds falling to two-month lows on Wednesday. In European equities, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined, with banks underperforming following disappointing results from Credit Agricole SA. European banking stocks were the worst performing sector as share indexes across the continent opened lower, following a poor session for U.S. banks. The two main European banking indices suffered the most, falling 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively, dragging an index of pan-European stocks lower 0.2%. Elsewhere, in a largely risk-off session seen through the European periphery without a clear catalyst, Spanish bonds led a sell-off, with the 10Y Spain underperforming Italy by 2.5bps as large block trade sent bund futures to session high. European equity markets mirror peripheral underperformance, with smaller Italian banks particularly weak, while Credit Agricole slumped -4.5% after a poor earnings report. The retail sector was supported by Marks & Spencer (+0.9%) after positive trading numbers. In the U.K., Prime Minister Theresa May was weighing whether to fire a member of her cabinet only seven days after her defense secretary quit in a sexual harassment scandal. Earlier, Asian shares wrung out another decade peak as data showed China’s demand for imports remained buoyant, pushing the MSCI world equity index to a fresh high. Beijing reported imports in October rose 17.2% from a year earlier, beating forecasts of 16%, but export growth was just under estimates at 6.9%.  Some more from Goldman on China's trade numbers: October exports and imports growth moderate, in line with consensus   Exports growth for China moderated to 6.9% yoy in October from 8.1% yoy in September, and import growth also slowed to 17.2% yoy from 18.6% yoy in September. Both readings are in line with consensus. The moderation in year-on-year growth may be partially due to the mid-autumn festival distortion, though probably to a lesser extent compared to those seen in Korea and Taiwan data. In sequential terms, exports fell 0.1% mom sa non-annualized, down from a modest increase of 0.2% in September. Imports increased by 0.3% mom sa non-annualized, moderating from 2.5% in September. The trade surplus increased to US$38.2bn from US$28.6bn in September.   For exports to major destinations, growth of exports to the EU and Japan improved to 11.4% yoy and 5.7% yoy, from 10.4% yoy and 0% yoy in September, respectively, while that to the US and ASEAN moderated to 8.3% yoy and 10.1% from 13.8% yoy and 10.7% in September.   For commodity imports, the imports growth decelerated both in volume and value terms. Specifically, in volume terms, iron ore imports fell 1.6% yoy, vs. +10.6% yoy in September; crude oil imports grew 7.8% yoy, vs. 11.9% yoy in September; steel products imports contracted 12.0% yoy, vs. +9.7% yoy in September. In value terms, iron ore imports decelerated to 16.9% yoy from 30.2% yoy in September; crude oil imports grew 29.1% yoy, vs. 29.4% yoy in September; steel products imports decelerated to 9.3% yoy, from 28.6% yoy in September. Both exports and imports growth moderated in October An index of Asian stocks held steady at a decade high following the WaPo report that Senate Republicans are considering a one year delay in the implementation of a corporate-tax cut. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2% to 171.76 at 4:28 p.m. in Hong Kong after earlier rising to its highest since 2007 for a second day following little change in U.S. stocks on Tuesday. Consumer discretionary stocks including Sony Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. gained, while energy companies dropped. The regional benchmark has to add less than a point to set a new record. “The U.S. tax cut plan is looking like a long-drawn process and thus softer leads from equities overnight are weighing on Asian stocks,” said Jingyi Pan, market strategist at IG Asia Pte in Singapore. A lack of tax cuts as the earnings season draws down may set Asian stocks up for a correction, she added. Japan’s Topix index rose to the highest close since November 1991 amid optimism over corporate earnings, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average retreating from its highest close since January 1992 marked Tuesday. Emerging-market stocks slipped for the first time in three days, led by declines in the Middle East, while currencies were little changed. Goldman and Blackrock both said the developing-nation equity rally has further to go.  Shares in Saudi Arabia continued to decline even as kingdom sought to ease tension among global investors over a crackdown that’s seen princes and billionaires arrested. Stocks indexes in the U.A.E., Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia fall, led by a 1.9% drop in Dubai’s DFM General Index, the steepest in a year; Saudi Arabia’s anti-corruption purge and deepening feud with Iran spur a selloff across Gulf stock markets to the tune of almost $7 billion in three days. The dollar weakened vs all G-10 peers except the pound and Treasuries were underpinned by the abovementioned corporate tax delay report; EUR/USD rose to session high in London trading with interbank names unwinding euro shorts. The pound fell a second day against the dollar, weighed by concern that U.K. PM Theresa May could lose a second member of her cabinet within a week as she is pondering whether to fire her International Development Secretary Priti Patel who held unauthorized meetings with Israel behind May’s back. USD/JPY was sold by leveraged accounts in Tokyo. Aussie gains despite weaker-than- forecast China trade surplus.Chinese crude imports slipped they lowest level in a year, pushing oil prices lower, although traders said the overall market remains well supported because of OPEC-led supply cuts. WTI was also pressured ahead of the release of U.S. crude stockpiles data, while Treasuries were supported after bunds rallied on the back of block trades. U.S. crude oil was lower 0.2% at $57.06 while Brent crude futures were steady at $63.72 and off a over two-year peak of $64.65 hit earlier in the week. Expected economic data include MBA mortgage applications and crude inventories. 21st Century Fox, Manulife Financial and Monster Beverage are among companies scheduled to report earnings Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,586.70 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.06% to 394.40 MSCI Asia up 0.1% to 171.74 MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.04% to 560.49 Nikkei down 0.1% to 22,913.82 Topix up 0.2% to 1,817.60 Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 28,907.60 Shanghai Composite up 0.06% to 3,415.46 Sensex down 0.6% to 33,180.32 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.03% to 6,016.27 Kospi up 0.3% to 2,552.40 German 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.332% Euro up 0.1% to $1.1601 Italian 10Y yield fell 8.3 bps to 1.437% Spanish 10Y yield rose 5.0 bps to 1.458% Brent futures up 0.2% to $63.79/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,279.04 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.08% to 94.83 Top Headline News U.S. Tax: Senate Rep. leaders are considering a delay in corp tax cut by 1-year; would save $100b: Washington Post Eyeing 2018 Midterms, Democrats Score Wins in Key Governor’s Races President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing where he’ll meet with President Xi Jinping. Representatives from about 40 U.S. companies are expected to accompany Trump’s trade mission to China and sign deals for billions of dollars BOJ board member Yukitoshi Funo says the central bank won’t necessarily keep policy the same until 2% is hit China data: Oct. exports 6.1% y/y vs est. 7%; imports 15.9% y/y vs est. 17.5%; trade balance 245.5b yuan vs 280.5b yuan Moody’s: Healthy economic growth and synchronized global expansion seen in 2017 likely to continue next year; global sovereigns have stable outlook for 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker suggested he’ll likely support a third 2017 interest-rate increase next month, but said he wants to see signs of inflation moving higher before backing tightening next year; has penciled in three increases for 2018 Catalan separatists missed the deadline to form an alliance to run as a united block, boosting Spain’s chances of restoring some normality to the rebel region The House tax- writing committee entered its third day of work to hammer out the details of the Republican tax cut plan The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit is held in Danang, Vietnam Fed’s Harker: Fed on track for Dec. hike; wants to see progress on inflation before 2018 hikes; repeats currently 3 hikes next year are penciled in by him BOE Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions: pay growth had edged up and now expected to be somewhat higher in 2018; pay settlements expected to be 2.5-3.5% next year vs 2-3% in 2017 API inventories according to people familiar w/data: Crude -1.6m; Cushing +0.8m; Gasoline +0.5m; Distillates -3.1m China Oct. trade balance: $38.2b sv $39.1b est; Exports 6.1% vs 7.0% est; Imports 15.9% vs 17.5% est. Asian equities traded mixed with profit taking initially dragging down major bourses, while the rally in commodities ran out of steam. Additionally, US equity futures were also off marginally following reports that Senate GOP is said to consider delaying corporate tax rate cut for a year. ASX 200 (+0.07%) initially pulled away from its recent 10yr high seen yesterday, while Commonwealth Bank shares outperformed after a firm earnings report. Similarly, the Nikkei 255 (-0.1%) also retreated from its recent highs with financials leading the losses, while Toyota shares surged higher after strong earnings. Both the Shanghai Comp (+0.5%) and Hang Seng (+0.3%) moved into positive territory fuelled by tech stocks as shares in China Literature doubled on their debut trading session, in turn shrugging off the Chinese trade data which missed analyst estimates. In credit markets, JGBs have been supported by spill over buying in USTs while the Japanese curve has been noticeably steeper with the short-end yet again outperforming as the 2yr yield falls 1.5bps. Top Asian News Thailand Holds Key Rate Near Record Low as Growth Gains Momentum Bharti Airtel Drops After Qatar Fund Seeks $1.5 Billion Selldown IPO Fever Hits Hong Kong Market as 1-in-20 People Try to Buy European equities continue the week’s trade in a subdued fashion, and reside in the marginal green. Utilities outperform, led by EON and SSE, following stela earnings from the latter, leading the FTSE higher. Energy struggles, albeit marginally so as oil markets slow their weekly gains, failing to help boost the sector. We suspected that there was more positive momentum building than any real desire to push prices lower, and that it was probably only a matter of time before the previous 10 year futures high was breached. However, follow-through buying has perhaps not been as strong or pronounced as anticipated (yet), despite reports of some 15k lots purchased from  163.40 (ie a tick above yesterday’s Eurex session peak) to the new 163.51 peak. To recap, 163.69 is the closest bullish objective on some charts, and that would nudge the equivalent yield down to 0.30%, which could be sticky. Elsewhere, and in keeping with the general fixed friendly trend, Gilts have extended gains to 125.67/1.217% in cash terms and T-notes have traded at 125-15/2.31% approx. Top European News ABN Amro Falls as Quarterly Net Interest Income Misses Estimates SSE Leads U.K. Shares Higher on Retail Energy Merger With Innogy Marks & Spencer Woes Deepen as New Chairman Tightens Hold Paschi Declines Further as Lending and Commissions Disappoint Maersk Closer to Drilling Deal After $1.8 Billion Writedown In FX, markets are likely to await comments from BoE’s Carney and McCafferty, expected both in the early European evening. Cable has seen some marginal downside in early trade, as the majority of FX markets struggle to find any real direction following the lack of impetus from Asia. Sterling has struggled against the EUR in recent trade, edging toward yesterday’s 0.8835 highs. Falling yields have been the theme of recent trade, as the US curve trades around flattest levels since 2007. USD/JPY remains undeceive however, retaining lows around November’s 113.55- 113.70 support range and looking back toward 114.00, with the large option expires between 113.50 and 114.50 signalling that the pair will remain in a tight range. The lack of trade is evident of anticipation for the RBNZ later this evening, with rates expected to remain at 1.75%. The implied vol indicates minimal risk, at the lowest levels of the year, helped by big expiries contacting – 640mln 0.6920-25 and 651mln at 0.6950. In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures have retraced from 2y highs, as the bulls take a breather, as the former trades around 57.00/bbl. It has been noted that China Oct crude oil imports have dropped to their lowest levels in over a year. Precious metals have traded largely sideward throughout the European and Asian sessions, as much focus remains on global risk sentiment as Trump continues his tour of Asia. Looking at what appears to be a fairly light day ahead, BoJ meeting minutes from the October meeting are due this evening while Germany’s Merkel speaks this morning and the BoE’s Kohn speaks around lunchtime. With little in the way of other data, expect the US tax developments to remain a focus along with President Trump’s trip around Asia. Deutsche US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.6% * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A Happy Trumpiversary to all our readers this morning. Yes, believe it or not, today marks exactly 12 months since the US election on November 8th 2016. A lot has happened in the last year, not least the President increasing his Twitter following by 29,111,914 people, or slightly more than the population of Ghana. Twelve months on from the election and while markets have been a bit mixed in the last 24 hours it feels like most investors are still somewhat sitting of the sidelines waiting for further developments on tax reform. The general feeling is that we should get the Senate bill on Thursday, which as we noted yesterday will be closely watched given that it’s likely to include some significant differences relative to the House bill. Republican Senator Ted Cruz was reported as saying yesterday that GOP lawmakers need “to do more” than what is on the table so far. In the meantime markups to the House bill continued for a second day yesterday and will likely continue into today also. As noted above it was a bit of a mixed session for the most part yesterday although US markets did end up closing a bit firmer in the last 30 minutes or so of trading. Indeed after the Stoxx 600 and DAX had closed -0.49% and -0.66% respectively in Europe, the S&P 500 closed broadly flat (-0.02%), not helped by a softer performance for banks. It appears that the latest developments in Saudi Arabia drove the early price action with the Gulf nation expanding its crackdown on anti-corruption. The news yesterday was that Saudi Arabia had ordered banks to freeze bank accounts for dozens of individuals who have not been arrested. Bloomberg also reported that the Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority had sent a list of  hundreds of names to lenders which told them to freeze bank accounts linked or under those names. Later on, Saudi authorities moved to calm concerns and noted that the bank accounts frozen only relate to individual suspects, not of the companies they control. The most eye-catching move yesterday in markets though was perhaps that of peripheral bond markets. BTPs rallied 8bps yesterday to 1.689% while 10y yields in Spain and Portugal closed 6.1bps and 9.7bps lower respectively – with the latter below 2% for the first time since April 2015. We’ve been scratching our heads a bit to explain the price action. With Treasuries (-0.2bps) and Bunds (-0.8bps) little changed there was some suggestion that the move was a bit of a delayed reaction to the Sicily regional election result on the weekend given the fairly muted price action on Monday. In any case the moves stood out given the relatively benign changes elsewhere. It is however worth noting that yesterday was another day of flattening across the Treasury curve. The 2s10s curve dropped below 69bps and has now flattened for 8 sessions in a row which is the longest run since November 2015. The 5s30s curve also fell below 79bps and both are at 10 year lows. Clearly rates markets are telling us something about the prospect of the tax bill as it stands so it’ll be interesting to see if that changes when we see the Senate version. Jumping to the overnight news now where most of the headlines are focused on Trump’s address at the National Assembly in Seoul. The President said that North Korea’s Kim has turned the nation into “a hell that no person deserves” and called for more help from Russia and China, noting “…to those nations that choose to ignore this threat…the weight of this crisis is on your conscience”. The words appear in stark contrast to a much calmer rhetoric from Trump about 24 hours ago. The President is scheduled to visit China next where he is due to have a private dinner with President Xi. Markets in Asia appear to have largely ignored Trump’s comments overnight though with the Kopsi (+0.19%), ASX 200 (+0.13%) , Shanghai Comp (+0.38%) and Hang Seng (+0.30%) up slightly and the Nikkei (-0.19%) currently the only index in the red. After the bell in the US, Snap Inc. dropped 17% following its’ softer than expected 3Q result and that appears to be weighing on US equity futures. Moving over to the ECB now where there was a bit of interest in a Bloomberg story yesterday which suggested that three significant ECB policymakers had pushed at last month’s policy meeting to link the overall level of monetary stimulus (rather than just asset purchases) with the outlook for inflation. The article highlighted that the three policy makers were Board member Coeure, Bundesbank President Weidmann and Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau. Earlier in the month, Bloomberg reported that Coeure didn’t oppose having an open-ended QE, but hopes “this will be the last extension”. Staying with the ECB, yesterday we heard from President Draghi who spoke on banks and bad debts. He noted that European banking supervision “has been instrumental in building a stronger banking sector” and while non-performing loan levels have been coming down, from 7.5% of loans in early 2015 to 5.5% now, “the problem is not yet solved”. Prior to this, ECB board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger noted “I would have liked a clear exit (for QE) and a different decision” in the October ECB meeting, perhaps in part as “for (her) that was ok to say (as) we can…now move gradually… out of non-standard measures, as the monetary policy stance will still be very accommodative and very expansionary”. On inflation, Lautenschlaeger said that “I am very confident that inflation will pick up and that in the medium term… we will achieve our goal”. Elsewhere on banks, she noted profitability is low for many banks and that they need to diversify their sources of revenue and seek a sustainable business model, but “all banks have to adapt to more stringent rules…they come at a cost, but in the long run, their benefits are greater”. Finally, the head of Supervision at the ECB Daniele Nouy noted that 50 banks have discussed their Brexit business relocation plans with authorities in the EU bloc. Over at the Fed, new Chief of Bank Regulation Randal Quarles didn’t give too much away in his public debut. He noted that in terms of regulation, “everything is up for a fresh look” and that “in a very short period of time”, the Fed will be looking for ways to make the regulatory process more transparent. Further, since starting at the Fed, he has found ‘quite an openness” for “taking a fresh look at regulation”. Elsewhere, Democratic Senator Tester noted members of the Senate Banking Committee are “getting very close” to agreeing on a bill to ease regulation on financial institutions. Away from the markets, OPEC revealed in its annual report yesterday that it now expects North American shale output to jump to 7.5m barrels per day in 2021, which is c.56% higher than its forecasts made last year, in part as OPEC’s output cuts have supported an oil price recovery that should help the US producers. OPEC and its partners are scheduled to meet on 30th November to decide whether or not to extend the oil production cuts from March 2018. WTI oil dipped -0.26% yesterday and is trading marginally lower this morning. Before we look at the day ahead, it was a fairly light day for economic data yesterday but for completeness we note that in the US, September JOLTS job openings were in line at 6,093k (vs. 6,075k expected), while consumer credit grew stronger than expected at US$20.8bln (vs. US$17.5bln). In Germany, the September IP was below expectations at -1.6% mom (vs. -0.9%) and 3.6% yoy (vs. 4.5% expected), with production of capital goods and energy weighing on growth. Notably, growth in 3Q remained reasonably sound at 0.9% qoq. In Europe, both the Eurozone and Italian September retail sales beat expectations, coming in at 0.7% mom (vs. 0.6% expected ) and 0.9% mom (vs. 0.2 expected) respectively. Over in the UK, the October Halifax house price index was broadly in line at 0.3% mom (vs. 0.2% expected) and 4.5% yoy. Elsewhere, BRC reported same-store retail sales fell 1.0% yoy in October, which is the worst result since March. Looking at what appears to be a fairly light day ahead, BoJ meeting minutes from the October meeting are due this evening while Germany’s Merkel speaks this morning and the BoE’s Kohn speaks around lunchtime. With little in  the way of other data, expect the US tax developments to remain a focus along with President Trump’s trip around Asia.

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07 ноября, 20:14

German central bank in Nazi era will be ‘special focus’ of independent study

Bundesbank funds research into twentieth century German central banks

07 ноября, 19:01

Europeans downbeat on owning homes

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Nearly half of Europeans who do not own their own home have given up hope of ever doing so, with pessimism highest among Britons and Germans, the results of a survey showed yesterday.

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04 ноября, 08:02

Bundesbank delves into dark days of carrying out Nazi orders

Study commissioned into five decades that encompass theft of other central banks’ gold

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04 ноября, 00:14

Germany’s Central Bank Backs Study of Role in Nazi Crimes

The research, the most exhaustive ever, may well show that Bundesbank leaders were more involved with Hitler’s regime than they admitted.

03 ноября, 08:00

Центробанки против правительств

Сегодня тема центральных банков в российских и мировых СМИ становится одной из приоритетных.  Эти организации  оказались под прицелом особенно острой критики со стороны политиков, общественных деятелей, экспертного сообщества после недавнего финансового кризиса. Поскольку кризис имел глобальные масштабы, то и критика в адрес центральных банков и даже конкретные акции против этих институтов имели место (и до […]

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30 октября, 19:24

Weidmann says ECB should have set time for end to asset purchases

Current policy risks blurring line between fiscal and monetary policy, Bundesbank president says

27 октября, 20:04

ECB Decision Reopens Divide Atop Central Bank

The European Central Bank’s reluctance to quickly phase out its bond-buying program has reopened a rift at the top of the central bank, pitting ECB President Mario Draghi against German Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann.

27 октября, 14:23

Why For Euro Bulls The Pain Is Only Just Starting

Judging by the 200 pip tumble since the ECB's meeting on Thursday, the EURUSD was at 1.1614 moments ago, the unexpectedly dovish taper clearly surprised many, and attention has fallen on the open-ended nature of the operation as the focus of that surprise. And speaking of said "open-ended" taper, overnight Boersen-Zeitung reported that Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger and Dutch central bank Governor Klaas Knot all opposed Draghi's decision. even as other policy makers were critical, if not opposed, including Benoit Coeure. Of course, in the end whatever Draghi wants, Draghi gets and the result if a slap in the face for all Euro bulls. However, if Bloomberg's macro commentator and resident contrarian, Marc Cudmore, is correct, the Euro's descent has only just begun and the pain for said bulls is only just starting, because as he writes in his overnight Macro View note "Structural long-term arguments for being bullish EUR/USD, while entirely logical, are largely irrelevant right now. Investors are enthusiastically adopting the concept of a correction in the pair and won’t be easily dissuaded" especially since it now appears that no matter who the next Fed chair is, more rate hikes are coming, and a greater interest rate spread differential between the US and Europe is just a matter of time.  And then there is the threat of if not tax reform, then tax cuts, and while "the ultimate economic impact of any watered-down agreement may be minimal, but that’s a trading theme for another month. The positive sentiment of domestic policy potentially getting passed under the Trump administration is what markets care about now." Oh, and there is the whole Catalan thing, which traders are finally paying attention to. That, and other reasons, is why when looking at the chart below, the 200 pip move in the past 24 hours may be just the start of a broad correction that takes the EURUSD back to 1.10 if not lower. Which brings up another fun question: how long until calls for parity re-emerge yet again... Here is Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore's full Macro View note, explaining why "Bearish EUR/USD Narrative Will Dominate for Weeks" Structural long-term arguments for being bullish EUR/USD, while entirely logical, are largely irrelevant right now. Investors are enthusiastically adopting the concept of a correction in the pair and won’t be easily dissuaded.   The dollar suddenly has several things going for it while traders have belatedly agreed the ECB is dovish and Catalonia might be a problem.   Narratives often dominate fundamentals for weeks at a time. Often, old data will be looked at in a new, supportive light when the story shifts, while fresh, contradictory information is dismissed.   Same as for many other inputs in financial markets, it’s the second derivative of the narrative flow that matters, not the underlying direction.   Whoever the Fed chair is, a December rate hike seems inevitable. Depending on Trump’s nominee, long-end yields may drop sharply, but front-end rates won’t. Even the dovish candidates -- Jerome Powell or Janet Yellen -- are part of the committee that’s laid out guidance for four rate hikes between now and the end of 2018.   Tax reform may never arrive, but tax cuts probably will. In the context of next year’s mid-term elections, it’s hard for U.S. politicians to aggressively fight for budget neutrality over putting money in their constituents’ pockets.   The ultimate economic impact of any watered-down agreement may be minimal, but that’s a trading theme for another month. The positive sentiment of domestic policy potentially getting passed under the Trump administration is what markets care about now.   The ECB was always going to keep its options open and try to sound as dovish as possible. They delivered exactly as anticipated on Thursday but investors have only just decided to recognize this message.   The Catalonia crisis has looked the same for a month now. With both sides maintaining a strong stance, the threat of a catastrophic misstep always loomed large. Traders are now acknowledging that tail risk.   Sometime in the future, current- account balances, growth momentum and currency valuations may return to support EUR/USD but its prospects look bleak for the weeks ahead.

27 октября, 14:02

Global Stocks Jump Among Earnings Bonanza; Nikkei Closes Above 22,000 For First Time In 21 Years

US equity futures are higher, boosted by a bevy of better than expected earnings out of tech giants Amazon, Intel and Microsoft as Asian stocks and European shares climb amid the dovish sentiment unleashed from Thursday’s ECB update. Asian equities rose as investors bid stocks following strong corporate results from India to Japan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.3% to 167.12, on track for its fourth-straight weekly gain. India’s United Spirits Ltd. led gains, surging 22% after reporting higher margins, while Fuji Electric Co. jumped 15 percent to the highest in 26 years after raising its profit forecast.  The broad-based advance - almost two stocks in the MSCI gauge rose for every one that fell - followed gains in U.S. markets spurred by corporate profits and congressional action that could lead to tax reform. "The earnings picture that came out overnight is definitely positive,” said Clive McDonnell, Singapore-based head of emerging market equity strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. That’s translated into more positive sentiment in Asia, he said. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average Index closed above the 22,000 level for the first time since July 1996. Shares in Hong Kong rose after China Construction Bank Corp. reported another expansion in margins, while China Life Insurance Co. said third-quarter profit more than quadrupled. Australia’s stock benchmark and currency declined after a court ruling on parliamentary eligibility threatened Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s majority. One story that has gotten little focus is China’s 10-year sovereign yield extending its weekly advance to 10 bps,  rising another 4 basis points to 3.83%, and set for its biggest increase since the first week of January. This tightening in financial conditions took place even as China’s central bank injected 63-day money into the financial system for the first time, which as Bloomberg reported reassured lenders about year-end funding availability while also intensifying a deleveraging drive by increasing costs. The PBOC offered 50 billion yuan ($7.5 billion) of 2.9% 63-day contracts, according to a statement posted on the PBOC website, as well as 90 billion yuan through one-week and 14-day contracts. This did not prevent the long-end of the Chinese bond curve from getting routed as inflation fears again rise. European stocks climbed for a second day, poised for their biggest weekly gain in a month, amid positive corporate results and lingering bullish sentiment from Thursday’s dovish ECB update. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.5% to 393.06, with most industry groups in the green. Miners bucked the trend, sliding 1.3% after a slump in iron-ore prices. RBS rose after posting stronger-than-expected 3Q capital ratios. Volkswagen and Linde advance on earnings that beat estimates. Meanwhile, Spanish stocks continued to underperform as Europe’s worst constitutional crisis for decades comes to head. Catalan separatists are making a last-ditch effort to win concessions from Madrid that would help persuade their increasingly agitated supporters to accept another regional election as lawmakers prepare to vote on a declaration of independence. In overnight macro, the dollar extended its rally after the U.S. House passed a resolution that brings tax cuts a step closer and speculation mounted a hawkish candidate may become the next Federal Reserve chair. After tumbling through the start of September, the US dollar has been on a tear ever since that Friday when the PBOC announced it was inviting shorts back into the (warm) water. As a result, the 200 DMA in the Bloomberg Dollar Index is now in play again as the BBDXY hovers near a three-month high. In the U.S., Republicans unlocked a process to cut taxes by the end of the year, while Jerome Powell and John Taylor are reportedly the only candidates left in the race to succeed Janet Yellen at the Fed. The prospect of growth-enhancing U.S. tax cuts and the probability of a hawkish turn at the Fed is attracting investment to U.S. assets, with investors pouring $6.1 billion into funds tracking U.S. stocks in the week to October 25, while pulling money from emerging-market funds. As the dollar rose, the common currency slumped, with the euro heading for its biggest weekly loss since March after the ECB announced a "dovish taper", extending the bond-buying program even as it plans to halve monthly purchases. Judging by the dramatic reaction in the EUR, the "open-ended" taper was clearly a surprise to many, especially with Boersen-Zeitung reporting that Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger and Dutch central bank Governor Klaas Knot opposed the decision to make quantitative easing open-ended. Other policy makers were critical, if not opposed, including Benoit Coeure. Also overnight, the USD/JPY climbs to highest since July 11 after the U.S. House passed a budget resolution on tax reforms and as speculation rose that a hawkish candidate may lead the Federal Reserve. In commodities, WTI dropped 0.2% to $52.56 a barrel.  Gold rose 0.1 percent to $1,267.76 an ounce.  Copper decreased 1.5 percent to $3.13 a pound, the lowest in more than two weeks. In rates, 10Y Treasuries dipped 1bp to the critical level of 2.45%, while Germany’s 10Y yield also decreased 1 bp to 0.41% while Britain 10-year gilts rose 2 bps points to 1.384%. Today's economic data include the first read of US QE GDP and PCE, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Scheduled earnings include reported by oil companies Exxon Mobil and Chevron along with health care firms Merck & Co. and AbbVie. Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk European bourses remain elevated following impressive after-market US tech earnings and yesterday’s ECB announcement In FX, EUR remains softer post-ECB while AUD was pressured by domestic political uncertainty Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP and PCE Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,567.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 392.94 Brent Futures down 0.1% to $59.26/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,268.28 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 94.82 MSCI Asia up 0.4% to 167.24 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.08% to 546.58 Nikkei up 1.2% to 22,008.45 Topix up 1% to 1,771.05 Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 28,438.85 Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,416.81 Sensex up 0.3% to 33,240.73 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5,903.16 Kospi up 0.6% to 2,496.63 German 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 0.407% Euro down 0.1% to $1.1635 Italian 10Y yield fell 8.7 bps to 1.683% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 1.528% Top Headline News Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni may make his recommendation for the post of governor of the Bank of Italy. The process was thrown into disarray after former PM Matteo Renzi attacked the incumbent, Ignazio Visco. Fed candidate Taylor calls for reforms that echo Trump agenda Exxon, Chevron Report; Total Rebounds; Amazon Leads Post-Market Tech Surge; GDP Data May be Distorted By Hurricanes Republicans are barreling into a lobbying frenzy next week, when House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady plans to unveil a sweeping tax bill Apple Inc. began accepting early orders for its iPhone X and shipping times quickly lengthened to as much as five weeks in the U.S., signaling supplies will likely remain tight as the new device goes on sale Nov. 3 It’s going to be Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve no matter who is the next chair Catalan separatists are making a last-ditch effort to win concessions from Madrid that would help persuade their increasingly agitated supporters to accept another regional election as lawmakers prepare to vote on a declaration of independence European Central Bank policy makers implicitly assume their newly-extended bond-buying program will be tapered to a halt by the end of next year so long as the inflation outlook improves Amazon.com Inc. reassured investors that the company can integrate its biggest-ever acquisition -- Whole Foods Market Inc. -- without disrupting its dominating e- commerce performance John Taylor argued Thursday that faster U.S. economic growth is possible if policy makers focus on reforms that encourage investment and hiring In Asia, a deluge of corporate results dominated focus in regional trade, with the region’s indices mainly in the green after a similar close in US and where Nasdaq 100 futures rallied after-market as tech giants Alphabet, Amazon, Intel, Microsoft and Western Digital all surpassed Q3 estimates. ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) both opened positive in which the energy sector lead Australia after Brent crude rose above USD 59/bbl and printed its highest in more than 2 years, while the Japanese benchmark outperformed on JPY weakness and with the biggest gaining stocks underpinned by earnings releases. However, Australian stocks were later spooked after the High Court ruled now-former-Deputy PM Joyce was ineligible for his parliamentary seat and would have to contest it again at a by-election, which meant the government loses its 1-seat majority. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) was higher following another firm liquidity operation by the PBoC which utilized a 63-day reverse repo for the 1st time ever, and the Hang Seng (+0.8%) was led by gains among the Big 4 after China’s 2nd largest lender China Construction Bank posted a 4% increase in Q3 net. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat as a positive risk tone in Japan sapped demand for safety, with downside also stemmed amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for long to super-long JGBs. PBoC injected CNY 60bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 30bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 50bln via 63-day reverse repos, for a net weekly injection of CNY 390bln vs. Prev. CNY 560bln net injection last week. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6473 (Prev. 6.6288. Top Asian News China’s PBOC Said to Sell 63-Day Reverse Repo for First Time Young Muslims Have Caught a $100 Billion Travel Bug, Report Says Paper Giants Rack Up Gains Amid China’s Anti-Pollution Drive Top China Macro Fund Shorts Commodities, Debt on Inflation iPhone X Wait Times Rise as Apple Device Sells Out in Hong Kong Najib Unveils Voter-Friendly Budget Ahead of Election Fight RCBC Says Not Pressured to Change Owners After $81m Cyber Heist European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.6%) trade higher across the board amid the fall-out of yesterday’s dovishly perceived ECB announcement with stellar tech earnings on Wall Street also bolstering sentiment. More specifically, tech giants Alphabet, Amazon, Intel, Microsoft and Western Digital all surpassed Q3 estimates subsequently supporting the Nasdaq 100 future and Asia-Pac equities with this sentiment filtering into their EU counterparts. As such, a sector breakdown, IT names lead the charge for Europe with materials the only sector in the red. Notable post-earnings movers include RBS (+1.9%), Volkswagen (+1.8%), Total (+1.3%), Linde (+2.7%) and Electrolux (+4.7%). No hangover for Bunds and Eurozone debt overall as the ECB rally and bond yield compression continues. Further analysis of the QE recalibration and policy guidance compounded initial market perceptions that President Draghi and co handled the scale down in bond buying (or at least the announcement) extremely well. The 10 year German benchmark extended gains to 162.00+, and equivalent yield down to almost 0.4%, in stark contrast to its US Treasury counterpart that is now approaching 2.5% (on hawkish Fed and Trump tax reform/reflation impulses). UK Gilts indecisive initially, but ultimately tracking Germany higher despite the consensus still favouring a BoE rate hike on November 2. Top European News ECB Is Said to See Option to End QE With Short Taper in 2018 Ermotti Reboots UBS Buyback Expectations as Capital Level Rise WeWork Said in Talks to Buy $785 Million Blackstone U.K. Project Mediterranean Gas Bonanza Pushes Spain to Resume Exports UBS Will Trigger Its Brexit Contingency Plans ‘Early’ Next Year U.K. Government Investments Hires Ex-Deutsche Bank’s Tom Cooper ECB Says Forecasters Lift Longer-Term Inflation Outlook to 1.9% Orban Marshals Spy Agencies in Renewed Attack on Soros ‘Empire’ In FX, the euro remains on the back foot, post the dovish ECB monetary policy decision. In the Asian session EUR moved to lows of 1.1617, subsequently hovering within close proximity to option expiries situated at 1.16 (EUR 518mln). On the topside, vanilla option expiries of EUR 1bln are at 1.17, which may cap any potential rebounds. However, EUR has been granted some reprieve amid short covering in EUR/GBP lifting the cross towards 0.8900. AUD remains softer amid political concerns after a high court ruled that Ex-Deputy PM is ineligible for parliament, meaning that the coalition losses their majority. In commodities, price action has been particularly rangebound for WTI and Brent crude futures with the only notable newsflow being reports that Libya's Sharara oil field output has fallen to 235k bpd (Prev. around 250k bpd), according to sources.  Gold prices languish near 2½-month lows due to a firmer greenback, copper was subdued alongside broad weakness in the metals complex and 4% declines in Dalian iron ore futures. Iraqi-Kurdistan oil  flows to Ceyhan port have risen to 246k bpd, according to a port agent. Libya's Sharara oil field output has fallen to 235k bpd (Prev. around 250k bpd), according to sources. Looking at the day ahead, in the US the highlight will be the first estimate of Q3 GDP in the US. The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for October is also due. Onto other events, the ECB’s Praet and Nowotny are also both scheduled to speak. UBS, Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Total all report results. US Event Calendar 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.6%, prior 3.1%; Personal Consumption, est. 2.1%, prior 3.3%; Core PCE QoQ, est. 1.3%, prior 0.9% 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 100.7, prior 101.1; Current Conditions, prior 116.4; Expectations, prior 91.3; 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.3%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.4% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Today is that time of year when all rational behaviour goes out the window. I tend to keep my plans secret from my wife for fear of a despairing look and alarm bells go off in my local bank manager’s office. Yes I’ll be in the virtual queue at 8am this morning to order my new iPhone X. To be honest I don’t know anything about it and have no idea whether it’s a worthwhile upgrade on my iPhone 7 Plus. However how can I take the children to various events at the weekends ahead without having the latest iPhone to show off? It will also take all my willpower not to add the new iWatch to my basket. On Monday you’ll find me signed up to AA - Apple Anonymous. Not even viewing it through the new iPhone X could make yesterday’s ECB meeting that interesting, which is remarkable given the magnitude of the announcement. The move had been well flagged but there was some creeping expectation this week that there would be a hawkish sting to the tail. That didn’t happen as the €60bn to €30bn January 2018 taper - but out to September - was where the ECB had guided us over recent weeks. Indeed with reinvestments, effectively the ECB will be buying c.€45bn per month in the first 9 months of next year. Reinvestment only became an issue from March of this year and has perhaps added an average of €5bn per month since. So net net the ECB will be buying a lot of bonds at least until Autumn next year. It also means ECB meetings are going to be very dull events over the next 6 months unless the facts change markedly. Volatility is going to have to come from elsewhere for a period if it is going to pick up. Markets reacted like they expected a little more hawkishness as Euro yields collapsed and the Euro slumped. Core 10y yields in the region fell 2-7bp (Bunds: -6.6bp; OATs -6bp; Gilts -2bp) and peripherals outperformed (Italy: -9.2bp; Spain -11.1bp), with Spanish yields likely supported by positive developments around Catalonia. Interestingly, 10y US yields rose 2.9bp on the day, likely helped by the passing of the budget resolution by the House and perhaps because Politico claimed Ms Yellen was out of the Fed Chair race. Notably, the daily yield divergence between Bunds and UST (9.5bp) is the highest since December 2016. The contrasting direction of yields likely contributed to the 1.7% intra-day range in EURUSD before closing -1.37% lower for the day and now back towards late July levels. Delving a bit more into the ECB meeting, a “large majority” of policy makers favoured “an open-ended stance” on when to end QE, to which Mr Draghi confirmed asset purchases will not just stop suddenly, although we think by the end of 2018 is still realistic. He also reaffirmed that interest rates will remain “at the present levels for an extended period of time and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases” (our European team expect a rate hike from mid-19). On the economy, he noted the economic expansion in the Eurozone continues to be solid and broad-based but added that “domestic prices pressures are still muted” and the economic outlook and inflation are conditional on (ample) support from monetary policy. DB’s Mark Wall takes a closer look at the meeting and implications, refer to link. Over in the US, the House of Representatives have voted to adopt the 2018 budget that has already passed in the Senate, paving the way for some sort of tax cuts that could increase the federal deficit by up to $1.5trln over the next 10 years. Looking ahead, the House and Senate will release separate versions of the tax bill, expected to be on 1 November and the week after (for the Senates own version). Then the process of debating and negotiating tax cuts and reconciling the two versions of the bill will step up a gear before final voting, which is expected to be before Thanksgivings (23 November). Staying in the US, there were more chatters on who may be the next Fed Chair. Citing a source who talks to President Trump regularly, the Politico reported that the two final contenders are now down to Powell or Taylor. However, a separate source noted that things can be evolving as Mr Trump “changes his mind about it every day”. Either way, we should hopefully find out soon, sometime before 3rd November. Turning to Spain, there seems to be more signs that Catalan President Puigdemont may be softening his position. His scheduled address yesterday afternoon was cancelled without explanations, and later on he said he has considered calling a snap regional election (rather than declaring independence), but “didn’t get a responsible answer” from Spain, now “it’s up to the Catalan parliament to move ahead with what the majority decides in relation to the consequences of the application of Article 155 against Catalonia”. Bloomberg reported Puidgemont may address the region again on Friday, which likely coincides with the final voting by the Spanish Senate to potentially approve the measures proposed by Spanish PM Rajoy to retake control of the region. Yesterday, the Spanish IBEX (+1.92%) and 10y bond yields (-11bp) both outperformed. Elsewhere, Santander’s CFO highlighted the solid economic recovery in Spain and noted limited concern about the developments in Catalonia. This morning in Asia, markets have followed the positive lead from the US and are trading broadly higher. The Nikkei (+0.88%), Kospi (+0.49%), Hang Seng (+0.83%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.28%) are up slightly, while the ASX 200 has fell 0.38% as we type. Elsewhere, China’s industrial profits in September were up 27.7% yoy (vs. 24% previous) – the highest since 2011. Japan’s September core CPI was in line and steady at 0.7% yoy, our Japanese economist believes the BOJ will have no choice but to downgrade their core inflation outlook for FY17 next week, from 1.1% to 0.8-0.9%. Now onto other markets performance for yesterday. US equities (S&P +0.13%, Dow +0.31%) broadly strengthened but the Nasdaq fell 0.11%, impacted by a softer result from Celgene (-16%). Within the S&P, most sectors were in the green, with gains led by the materials and financials sector with partial offsets from health care. Yesterday, both Ford (+1.9%) and Twitter (+18.5%) rose following above consensus results. After the bell, Amazon (+8%), Microsoft (+4%) and Alphabet (+3%) were all up after releasing their respective results, but Baidu fell 10% on weaker outlook. The VIX rose slightly and remains above 10 for the fourth consecutive day (11.30). European markets were all higher, likely supported by the dovish ECB meeting and weaker Euro. The Stoxx 600 gained (+1.07%) the most since mid-August, while the DAX jumped 1.39% to a fresh record high. Across the region, the FTSE (+0.53%) was the relative laggard while Spain’s IBEX (+1.92%) and Italy’s MIB (+1.61%) outperformed, likely reflecting the positive developments around Catalonia and the Italian senate passing new electoral laws that make M5S less likely to gain power (see below). Contrary to the US, the Euro VSTOXX volatility index fell 11.14% - the biggest one day fall since August. Turning to currencies, as noted earlier, there was a fair bit of movement following the US budget, Fed Chair talks and the ECB meeting, which contributed to the US dollar index rising 0.99% while the Euro and Sterling fell 1.37% and 0.76% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil gained 0.88%, partly supported by reports that the Saudi Prince will back an extension of OPEC production cuts beyond March 2018. Elsewhere, precious metals softened (Gold -0.83%; Silver -0.93%) while other base metals were virtually unchanged (Copper -0.07%; Zinc flat; Aluminium -0.06%). Away from the markets and onto Brexit, one of the sticking points remains the potential financial obligations UK owes to the EU bloc. An aide (Stefann De Rynck) to the EU Chief negotiator spoke in London and noted “we need a method (to determine the amount) to be able to reassure the 27 nations the solidity of the UK’s guarantees” and that “we need to take the drama out of that question in the UK before it becomes a drama in the EU27”. Prior reports suggest the EU wants a settlement of c€60bn vs. UK’s offer of c€20bn. Behind the scenes, the EU bloc is reportedly keeping its options open by continuing preparatory work so talks on trade can begin if and when its members decide UK has made sufficient progress as well. Conversely, preparatory work on Plan B if talks in December did not provide a tangible breakthrough are also progressing too (per Bloomberg). In Italy, the Senate has voted in favour (214 vs. 61) of a new electoral law which could potentially penalise the 5-Star Movement party (5SM). The new system allows 36% of lawmakers elected on a first-past-the-post basis and 64% via proportional representation. However, as per Bloomberg / Reuters, opinions polls suggest the three contenders are virtually tied (Democrats, Five Star and possible centre-right coalition), potentially implying the new laws are unlikely to lead to a clear parliamentary majority. With new elections expected in either March or May next year, we shall find out more soon. Over in China, there was strong appetite for its first US dollar sovereign bond issuance (unrated) since 2004. Demand was reportedly 11x higher than the offer size, with the Ministry of Finance pricing the $1bn 5y notes at 15bp over treasuries and the $1bn 10y note at 25bp over UST (vs. initial guidance of 40-50bp). Finally, for those hoping for answers from de-classified materials relating to the assassination of President Kennedy, you may have to wait longer as President Trump had to block hundreds of records, citing “potentially irreversible harm” to national security if all records were allowed for public viewing. The relevant files are suppressed for another six months before further review. Intriguing. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the macro data was a bit mixed. The October Kansas City Fed manufacturing index beat expectations at 23 (vs. 17 expected) – highest since March 2011. In the details, the new orders index jumped 17pts to +27 (highest since March) and firms also reported increased order backlogs and employment. Moving along, the weekly initial jobless claims (233k vs. 235k expected) and continuing claims (1,893k vs. 1,890k expected) as well as the September advance goods trade deficit (-$64.1bln vs. -$64bln expected) was broadly in line. Elsewhere, pending home sales for September was flat mom (vs. 0.5% expected), partly impacted by the storm impacted region in the South, while wholesale inventories was also a tad softer at 0.3% mom (vs. 0.4% expected). In the ECB’s money and credit aggregates for September, M3 money supply grew at a slightly faster pace at 5.1% yoy (vs. 5% expected). In the details, growth in household loans was steady at 2.7% yoy while non-financial corporates loans edged up to 2.5% yoy. In Germany, the November GfK consumer confidence was slightly lower than consensus 10.7 (vs. 10.8). Over in Italy, both the consumer (116.1 vs. 114.9 expected) and manufacturing confidence (111 vs. 110 expected) indicators for October beat expectations, with consumer confidence at the highest level since January 2016. Further, the Istat economic sentiment index also rose to the highest level since September 2007. In the UK, after a very strong September survey, the CBI’s distributive trade survey was much softer in October. A net 36% of retailers reported a decline in sales from a year earlier – the worst result since 2009. Looking at the day ahead, in France consumer confidence data in October is due while in the US the highlight will be the first estimate of Q3 GDP in the US. The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for October is also due. Onto other events, the ECB’s Praet and Nowotny are also both scheduled to speak. UBS, Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Total all report results.

03 октября, 17:10

Германия экстренно возвращает свое золото из США

Немецкий центробанк Bundesbank вернул на родину золотые запасы из Нью-Йорка и Парижа. Причем, опередил график на… три года.

15 августа 2013, 15:20

США отказываются возвращать немецкий золотой запас

Мир теряет веру в доллар как в самую надежную валюту. Волна недоверия поднялась после того, как Немецкий федеральный банк потребовал репатриации огромного количества золота, хранящегося в Федеральной резервной системе США. Некоторые обеспокоены тем, что национальные вклады других стран не будут в безопасности в США. Да и находятся ли они там вообще? Подробности в репортаже корреспондента RT Гаяне Чичакян. Подписывайтесь на RT Russian - http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=rtrussian RT на русском - http://russian.rt.com/ Vkontakte - http://vk.com/rt_russian Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/RTRussian Twitter - http://twitter.com/RT_russian Livejournal - http://rt-russian.livejournal.com/

06 февраля 2013, 00:00

Утечка информации из МВФ: «золотое» мошенничество центральных банков

О GATA и «золотом картеле» Еще в конце ХХ века наиболее въедливые эксперты стали подозревать, что на рынке золота происходит что-то неладное. А именно: даже если жёлтый металл не дешевеет, то цены на него всё равно отстают по темпам роста от динамики цен на многие другие товары мирового рынка. Золото дешевело также на фоне индексов фондовых рынков, цен на недвижимость и т.п. Никаких крупных месторождений золота в это время не было открыто, золотые метеориты на Землю не падали. Заниженные цены на желтый металл больно били по компаниям золотодобывающей промышленности. Представители нескольких компаний этой отрасли решили разобраться в загадке, для чего и создали организацию под названием GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action). В буквальном переводе - «Действие против Золотого Треста». Как следует из названия, учредители GATA подозревали, что на мировом рынке золота действует группа злоумышленников, объединенных в трест, который манипулирует ценами на золото в сторону их занижения. В своих публикациях GATA чаще использовала термин «золотой картель». Постепенно удалось вычислить основных участников этого картеля. Среди них - Казначейство США, Федеральный резервный банк Нью-Йорка (главный из 12 федеральных банков, составляющих ФРС США), Банк Англии, ряд крупнейших коммерческих и инвестиционных банков США и Западной Европы (здесь особо выделяется «Голдман Сакс» - инвестиционный банк с Уолл-стрит). Это – ядро картеля. Время от времени в поле зрения GATA попадали и другие организации, участвовавшие в операциях картеля. В том числе центральные банки некоторых стран.  1990-е годы были периодом наибольшей активности США на мировых рынках активов. Проще говоря, американцы организовывали приватизации государственных предприятий по всему миру (в том числе в России), а для таких операций нужен был сильный доллар. Финансовые аналитики и спекулянты прекрасно знают простое правило: чем ниже цена на золото, тем крепче доллар. Самый простой и дешевый способ укрепить доллар – «прижать» цену на «желтый металл», который явно и неявно выступает конкурентом этой резервной валюты. Однако чтобы «прижать» цену, надо обеспечить повышенное предложение этого металла на мировом рынке. У тех, кто хотел сыграть на «понижение» золота, взоры обратились к несметным запасам золота, сосредоточенным в подвалах казначейств и центральных банков. Эти запасы лежали там без движения с тех пор, как в 1970-е гг. рухнула Бреттон-Вудская валютно-финансовая система. В новой Ямайской валютно-финансовой системе золото перестало быть деньгами, оно было объявлено одним из биржевых товаров – таким как нефть, пшеница или бананы. Версия о золотых манипуляциях центральных банков Как можно использовать это золото для манипуляций ценами?  Первое и главное условие сводится к тому, чтобы полностью засекретить официальные запасы желтого металла и все операции денежных властей с ними. Еще более повысить независимый статус центральных банков, для того чтобы «народные избранники», органы финансового контроля и прочие любопытствующие элементы не совали свои носы в дела этих институтов. Не допускать государственных аудиторов до «золотых закромов». В США, например, Главное контрольное управление (Счётная палата Конгресса) последний раз посещало главное хранилище официального золотого запаса США Форт Ноксболее 60 лет назад.  Далее под завесой секретности можно начинать операции с золотом. Однако не продавать его, а передавать разным частным структурам «на время», оформляя эти операции как кредиты или лизинг желтого металла. А вместо золотых слитков оставлять в хранилищах бумажки, которые являются с бухгалтерско-юридической точки зрения «требованиями», «расписками», «сертификатами» и т.п. То есть золото на балансе центрального банка сохраняется, только оно имеет не металлическую, а виртуально-бумажную (или даже электронную) форму. А «народу» это знать не обязательно. Если в эти «золотые аферы» втянуть десяток-другой центральных банков, то каждый год на рынок можно выкидывать не одну сотню тонн драгоценного металла и сбивать на него цену.  Эксперты (в том числе эксперты GATA) находили многочисленные подтверждения тому, что все это не вымысел, а результат преступного сговора центральных банков с частными банкирами и спекулянтами. И тут сразу возникают вопросы: кому центральные банки передавали золото? Было ли это золото возвращено назад в сейфы центральных банков? Известны ли эти махинации законодателям? Сколько на сегодняшний день реально осталось физического золота в хранилищах центральных банков (и государственных казначейств)? Отметим, что отдельные попытки разобраться в том, что представляют собой официальные золотые запасы, насколько официальная статистика золота отражает истинное положение дел, кто и как управляет официальным золотым запасом, предпринимались парламентариями, политиками, общественными активистами в разных странах. Например, в США такие попытки регулярно предпринимал член Конгресса США Рон Пол. Регулярные запросы в разные инстанции делала также GATA.  Денежные власти предпочитали отмалчиваться. Или же ответы были крайне лаконичными и сводились к тому, что «золотой запас страны находится в неприкосновенности». Такую же позицию занимали на протяжении последних 15 лет (с тех пор, как начались разговоры о «золотом картеле») и международные финансовые организации: Банк международных расчетов (который, кстати, активно занимается операциями с желтым металлом и был заподозрен в участии в «золотом картеле»), Всемирный банк, Международный валютный фонд (1).  Утечка информации из МВФ И вот последняя новость в этой области. Речь идет о материале, размещенном на сайте GATA в декабре 2012 года (2). Это полученное одним из экспертов GATA секретное исследование Международного валютного фонда 13-летней давности. Оно касается мирового рынка золота и роли центральных банков в операциях на этом рынке в 1999 году. Поскольку оно секретное, то его автор позволяет себе писать полную правду об операциях центральных банков.  «Информация о рынке золота неоднородна», – говорится в исследовании. «Для транзакций характерна высокая степень секретности. Наряду с относительно небольшим количеством открытых торгов на биржах, продажи золота представляют собой приватные внебиржевые сделки, о таких операциях сообщается скупо. … Официальные данные о ссудах в золоте практически отсутствуют». Вот ключевые факты и цифры из этого материала МВФ. В 1999 годуболее 80 центральных банков ссудили 15 процентов официальных золотых запасов рынку (имеется в виду величина непогашенных обязательств по золотым кредитам). В числе центральных банков, предоставлявших ссуды в золоте, были Бундесбанк Германии, Швейцарский национальный банк, Банк Англии, Резервный банк Австралии и центральные банки Австрии, Португалии и Венесуэлы. В исследовании подтверждается, что центральные банки играли на рынке золота на «понижение»: «…высокая степень мобилизации резервов центробанка через кредитные операции в золоте оказала понижающее влияние на наличную цену золота, поскольку перекредитуемое золото обычно связано с продажами золота на наличном рынке». Далее в исследовании МВФ говорится, что «кредитование в золоте заставило центробанки проявлять активность на рынке производных финансовых инструментов золота, где участвуют банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами и производители золота, продавая золото через форвардные сделки и опционы. В свою очередь, банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами приложили все усилия для защиты и укрепления долгосрочных отношений с центральными банками». Вот еще выдержка из документа МВФ: «Доля промышленно развитых стран на всём рынке официального кредитования в золоте выросла с 33 процентов в конце 1995 года до 46 процентов к концу 1998 года, поскольку некоторые центральные банки промышленных стран повысили уровень кредитования; в то же время на рынке появились новые кредиторы, в частности Бундесбанк и Швейцарский национальный банк». А вот комментарий эксперта GATA, разместившего данный материал:«При столь значительном количестве центральных банков, секретно предоставляющих ссуды в золоте тем финансовым организациям, чей основной талант, как можно было видеть в последнее время, состоит в рыночных махинациях, кто станет отрицать, кроме обычных агентов дезинформации, что рынком золота манипулируют именно для того, чтобы не позволить всему миру пользоваться свободными рынками?» 2013 год: ждём новых «золотых» скандалов и «золотых» сенсаций Раскрытия страшной тайны золота ждут уже много лет. Ещё в 2004 году Лондонский банк Ротшильдов заявил о своем выходе из «золотого фиксинга» - процедуры ежедневного определения в узком кругу цены на жёлтый металл в лондонском Сити. Тем самым Ротшильды заявили миру, что они выходят из золотого бизнеса, которым занимались на протяжении двух столетий. Однако это – всего лишь эффектный жест. Из золотого бизнеса они не ушли, а продолжили заниматься им через структуры с другими вывесками. Чувствуя угрозу надвигающегося скандала с разоблачениями «золотого картеля», эти олигархические круги решили своевременно отойти от эпицентра возможного взрыва…  Возбуждение общественности и политиков по поводу официальных запасов золота резко обострилось в 2012 году. Выяснилось, что на мировом рынке активно идет торговля фальшивым золотом в виде вольфрамовых позолоченных слитков (хотя специалистам об этом стало известно еще в 2004 году, трубить об этом мошенничестве мировые СМИ начали только в 2012 году). Возникли подозрения, что в подвалах центральных банков и казначейств находятся груды вольфрама. Рон Пол добился проведения выборочной проверки брусков металла в подвалах Форт-Нокс и Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка. Германия потребовала от США вернуть золото из своего официального запаса (Бундесбанк), которое хранилось в подвалах ФРБ Нью-Йорка, но встретила глухое сопротивление со стороны казначейства и ФРС США. Кончилось это тем, что председатель Федерального резерва Бен Бернанке заявил, что недавний ураган Сэнди… «уничтожил» немецкое золото. Ничего лучшего он придумать не смог. Все это лишь подкрепило мнение тех, кто давно обвиняет ФРС и другие центральные банки в мошенничестве с золотом.  Думаю, что в 2013 г. тема золота центральных банков станет еще более горячей. Например, все с нетерпением ждут обнародования результатов выборочной физической проверки слитков золота из закромов Казначейства США. Власти обещали сообщить об этом в начале 2013 года. От Германии все напряженно ожидают реакции на заявление Бернанке о таинственном исчезновении немецкого золота.  Появились вопросы и к Банку международных расчетов (БМР), активно практикующему коммерческие операции с желтым металлом - и собственным, и тем, который центральные банки предоставляют БМР в виде депозитов или кредитов. Отчётность БМР об этих операциях крайне лаконична и не даёт представления о деталях сделок, их контрагентах и конечных бенефициарах.  Международный валютный фонд будет продолжать настойчиво требовать от Китая раскрытия истинной информации об официальном золотом запасе. В 2009 г. Народный банк Китая (НБК) сообщил, что его золотые запасы увеличились сразу на 76% и составили 1054 тонны. С тех пор официальные цифры золотого запаса НБК не менялись. Мало кто верит в то, что эти цифры отражают реальное положение дел. Считается, что денежные власти Китая сильно занижают цифры, тайно переводя часть своих несметных валютных резервов в желтый металл. В Конгрессе США ожидается окончательное решение вопроса о том, будет ли ФРС подвергнута серьезному аудиту - впервые за век ее существования. Если такой аудит всё-таки состоится, то полной проверке должны подвергнуться все операции Федерального резерва с золотом. Почти все серьезные эксперты ждут от этой проверки сенсационных разоблачений.  (1) Подробнее о манипуляциях «золотого картеля» см.: В.Ю. Катасонов. Золото в экономике и политике России. – М.: Анкил, 2009, с. 57-63.  (2) «IMF study in 1999 found 80 central banks lending 15% of official gold reserves». December 9, 2012 (http://www.gata.org/files/IMFGoldLendingFullStudy1999.pdf)

06 февраля 2013, 00:00

Утечка информации из МВФ: «золотое» мошенничество центральных банков

О GATA и «золотом картеле» Еще в конце ХХ века наиболее въедливые эксперты стали подозревать, что на рынке золота происходит что-то неладное. А именно: даже если жёлтый металл не дешевеет, то цены на него всё равно отстают по темпам роста от динамики цен на многие другие товары мирового рынка. Золото дешевело также на фоне индексов фондовых рынков, цен на недвижимость и т.п. Никаких крупных месторождений золота в это время не было открыто, золотые метеориты на Землю не падали. Заниженные цены на желтый металл больно били по компаниям золотодобывающей промышленности. Представители нескольких компаний этой отрасли решили разобраться в загадке, для чего и создали организацию под названием GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action). В буквальном переводе - «Действие против Золотого Треста». Как следует из названия, учредители GATA подозревали, что на мировом рынке золота действует группа злоумышленников, объединенных в трест, который манипулирует ценами на золото в сторону их занижения. В своих публикациях GATA чаще использовала термин «золотой картель». Постепенно удалось вычислить основных участников этого картеля. Среди них - Казначейство США, Федеральный резервный банк Нью-Йорка (главный из 12 федеральных банков, составляющих ФРС США), Банк Англии, ряд крупнейших коммерческих и инвестиционных банков США и Западной Европы (здесь особо выделяется «Голдман Сакс» - инвестиционный банк с Уолл-стрит). Это – ядро картеля. Время от времени в поле зрения GATA попадали и другие организации, участвовавшие в операциях картеля. В том числе центральные банки некоторых стран.  1990-е годы были периодом наибольшей активности США на мировых рынках активов. Проще говоря, американцы организовывали приватизации государственных предприятий по всему миру (в том числе в России), а для таких операций нужен был сильный доллар. Финансовые аналитики и спекулянты прекрасно знают простое правило: чем ниже цена на золото, тем крепче доллар. Самый простой и дешевый способ укрепить доллар – «прижать» цену на «желтый металл», который явно и неявно выступает конкурентом этой резервной валюты. Однако чтобы «прижать» цену, надо обеспечить повышенное предложение этого металла на мировом рынке. У тех, кто хотел сыграть на «понижение» золота, взоры обратились к несметным запасам золота, сосредоточенным в подвалах казначейств и центральных банков. Эти запасы лежали там без движения с тех пор, как в 1970-е гг. рухнула Бреттон-Вудская валютно-финансовая система. В новой Ямайской валютно-финансовой системе золото перестало быть деньгами, оно было объявлено одним из биржевых товаров – таким как нефть, пшеница или бананы. Версия о золотых манипуляциях центральных банков Как можно использовать это золото для манипуляций ценами?  Первое и главное условие сводится к тому, чтобы полностью засекретить официальные запасы желтого металла и все операции денежных властей с ними. Еще более повысить независимый статус центральных банков, для того чтобы «народные избранники», органы финансового контроля и прочие любопытствующие элементы не совали свои носы в дела этих институтов. Не допускать государственных аудиторов до «золотых закромов». В США, например, Главное контрольное управление (Счётная палата Конгресса) последний раз посещало главное хранилище официального золотого запаса США Форт Ноксболее 60 лет назад.  Далее под завесой секретности можно начинать операции с золотом. Однако не продавать его, а передавать разным частным структурам «на время», оформляя эти операции как кредиты или лизинг желтого металла. А вместо золотых слитков оставлять в хранилищах бумажки, которые являются с бухгалтерско-юридической точки зрения «требованиями», «расписками», «сертификатами» и т.п. То есть золото на балансе центрального банка сохраняется, только оно имеет не металлическую, а виртуально-бумажную (или даже электронную) форму. А «народу» это знать не обязательно. Если в эти «золотые аферы» втянуть десяток-другой центральных банков, то каждый год на рынок можно выкидывать не одну сотню тонн драгоценного металла и сбивать на него цену.  Эксперты (в том числе эксперты GATA) находили многочисленные подтверждения тому, что все это не вымысел, а результат преступного сговора центральных банков с частными банкирами и спекулянтами. И тут сразу возникают вопросы: кому центральные банки передавали золото? Было ли это золото возвращено назад в сейфы центральных банков? Известны ли эти махинации законодателям? Сколько на сегодняшний день реально осталось физического золота в хранилищах центральных банков (и государственных казначейств)? Отметим, что отдельные попытки разобраться в том, что представляют собой официальные золотые запасы, насколько официальная статистика золота отражает истинное положение дел, кто и как управляет официальным золотым запасом, предпринимались парламентариями, политиками, общественными активистами в разных странах. Например, в США такие попытки регулярно предпринимал член Конгресса США Рон Пол. Регулярные запросы в разные инстанции делала также GATA.  Денежные власти предпочитали отмалчиваться. Или же ответы были крайне лаконичными и сводились к тому, что «золотой запас страны находится в неприкосновенности». Такую же позицию занимали на протяжении последних 15 лет (с тех пор, как начались разговоры о «золотом картеле») и международные финансовые организации: Банк международных расчетов (который, кстати, активно занимается операциями с желтым металлом и был заподозрен в участии в «золотом картеле»), Всемирный банк, Международный валютный фонд (1).  Утечка информации из МВФ И вот последняя новость в этой области. Речь идет о материале, размещенном на сайте GATA в декабре 2012 года (2). Это полученное одним из экспертов GATA секретное исследование Международного валютного фонда 13-летней давности. Оно касается мирового рынка золота и роли центральных банков в операциях на этом рынке в 1999 году. Поскольку оно секретное, то его автор позволяет себе писать полную правду об операциях центральных банков.  «Информация о рынке золота неоднородна», – говорится в исследовании. «Для транзакций характерна высокая степень секретности. Наряду с относительно небольшим количеством открытых торгов на биржах, продажи золота представляют собой приватные внебиржевые сделки, о таких операциях сообщается скупо. … Официальные данные о ссудах в золоте практически отсутствуют». Вот ключевые факты и цифры из этого материала МВФ. В 1999 годуболее 80 центральных банков ссудили 15 процентов официальных золотых запасов рынку (имеется в виду величина непогашенных обязательств по золотым кредитам). В числе центральных банков, предоставлявших ссуды в золоте, были Бундесбанк Германии, Швейцарский национальный банк, Банк Англии, Резервный банк Австралии и центральные банки Австрии, Португалии и Венесуэлы. В исследовании подтверждается, что центральные банки играли на рынке золота на «понижение»: «…высокая степень мобилизации резервов центробанка через кредитные операции в золоте оказала понижающее влияние на наличную цену золота, поскольку перекредитуемое золото обычно связано с продажами золота на наличном рынке». Далее в исследовании МВФ говорится, что «кредитование в золоте заставило центробанки проявлять активность на рынке производных финансовых инструментов золота, где участвуют банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами и производители золота, продавая золото через форвардные сделки и опционы. В свою очередь, банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами приложили все усилия для защиты и укрепления долгосрочных отношений с центральными банками». Вот еще выдержка из документа МВФ: «Доля промышленно развитых стран на всём рынке официального кредитования в золоте выросла с 33 процентов в конце 1995 года до 46 процентов к концу 1998 года, поскольку некоторые центральные банки промышленных стран повысили уровень кредитования; в то же время на рынке появились новые кредиторы, в частности Бундесбанк и Швейцарский национальный банк». А вот комментарий эксперта GATA, разместившего данный материал:«При столь значительном количестве центральных банков, секретно предоставляющих ссуды в золоте тем финансовым организациям, чей основной талант, как можно было видеть в последнее время, состоит в рыночных махинациях, кто станет отрицать, кроме обычных агентов дезинформации, что рынком золота манипулируют именно для того, чтобы не позволить всему миру пользоваться свободными рынками?» 2013 год: ждём новых «золотых» скандалов и «золотых» сенсаций Раскрытия страшной тайны золота ждут уже много лет. Ещё в 2004 году Лондонский банк Ротшильдов заявил о своем выходе из «золотого фиксинга» - процедуры ежедневного определения в узком кругу цены на жёлтый металл в лондонском Сити. Тем самым Ротшильды заявили миру, что они выходят из золотого бизнеса, которым занимались на протяжении двух столетий. Однако это – всего лишь эффектный жест. Из золотого бизнеса они не ушли, а продолжили заниматься им через структуры с другими вывесками. Чувствуя угрозу надвигающегося скандала с разоблачениями «золотого картеля», эти олигархические круги решили своевременно отойти от эпицентра возможного взрыва…  Возбуждение общественности и политиков по поводу официальных запасов золота резко обострилось в 2012 году. Выяснилось, что на мировом рынке активно идет торговля фальшивым золотом в виде вольфрамовых позолоченных слитков (хотя специалистам об этом стало известно еще в 2004 году, трубить об этом мошенничестве мировые СМИ начали только в 2012 году). Возникли подозрения, что в подвалах центральных банков и казначейств находятся груды вольфрама. Рон Пол добился проведения выборочной проверки брусков металла в подвалах Форт-Нокс и Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка. Германия потребовала от США вернуть золото из своего официального запаса (Бундесбанк), которое хранилось в подвалах ФРБ Нью-Йорка, но встретила глухое сопротивление со стороны казначейства и ФРС США. Кончилось это тем, что председатель Федерального резерва Бен Бернанке заявил, что недавний ураган Сэнди… «уничтожил» немецкое золото. Ничего лучшего он придумать не смог. Все это лишь подкрепило мнение тех, кто давно обвиняет ФРС и другие центральные банки в мошенничестве с золотом.  Думаю, что в 2013 г. тема золота центральных банков станет еще более горячей. Например, все с нетерпением ждут обнародования результатов выборочной физической проверки слитков золота из закромов Казначейства США. Власти обещали сообщить об этом в начале 2013 года. От Германии все напряженно ожидают реакции на заявление Бернанке о таинственном исчезновении немецкого золота.  Появились вопросы и к Банку международных расчетов (БМР), активно практикующему коммерческие операции с желтым металлом - и собственным, и тем, который центральные банки предоставляют БМР в виде депозитов или кредитов. Отчётность БМР об этих операциях крайне лаконична и не даёт представления о деталях сделок, их контрагентах и конечных бенефициарах.  Международный валютный фонд будет продолжать настойчиво требовать от Китая раскрытия истинной информации об официальном золотом запасе. В 2009 г. Народный банк Китая (НБК) сообщил, что его золотые запасы увеличились сразу на 76% и составили 1054 тонны. С тех пор официальные цифры золотого запаса НБК не менялись. Мало кто верит в то, что эти цифры отражают реальное положение дел. Считается, что денежные власти Китая сильно занижают цифры, тайно переводя часть своих несметных валютных резервов в желтый металл. В Конгрессе США ожидается окончательное решение вопроса о том, будет ли ФРС подвергнута серьезному аудиту - впервые за век ее существования. Если такой аудит всё-таки состоится, то полной проверке должны подвергнуться все операции Федерального резерва с золотом. Почти все серьезные эксперты ждут от этой проверки сенсационных разоблачений.  (1) Подробнее о манипуляциях «золотого картеля» см.: В.Ю. Катасонов. Золото в экономике и политике России. – М.: Анкил, 2009, с. 57-63.  (2) «IMF study in 1999 found 80 central banks lending 15% of official gold reserves». December 9, 2012 (http://www.gata.org/files/IMFGoldLendingFullStudy1999.pdf)