• Теги
    • избранные теги
    • Компании629
      • Показать ещё
      Страны / Регионы1058
      • Показать ещё
      • Показать ещё
      • Показать ещё
      • Показать ещё
      • Показать ещё
      Международные организации116
      • Показать ещё
21 марта, 17:25

Бундесбанк призывает поменять политику ЕЦБ

Москва, 21 марта - "Вести.Экономика". Глава Бундесбанка Йенс Вайдман предложил ЕЦБ постепенно отказываться от политики "легких денег" на фоне потока критики в отношении европейского финансового регулятора.

20 марта, 15:53

Key Events In The Coming Week

The week ahead sees focus in Europe turn back to the French elections with the first presidential debate coming up on Monday, while in the US we get plenty of Fedspeak to parse, including from Chair Yellen.  On the US economic docket, the key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday. The UK also remains on the radar, with an important data week ahead bringing updates on inflation and retail sales, and also bringing us one week closer to the triggering of A50, which will be done on March 29.  In G10 Central Banks, only the RBNZ coming up, which we expect to remain on hold, despite Q4 GDP significantly disappointing their forecast.   Elsewhere: There will be monetary policy meetings in Russia, Colombia, Taiwan and The Philippines. We forecast Colombia's Banrep to cut 25bp. Rating reviews in Saudi Arabia and Georgia. In the US, the main focus will be on durable goods as well as a host of Fed speakers including NY Fed President Dudley and Chair Yellen. We also get existing & new home sales and the current account balance. In the Eurozone, focus is back on PMIs, where we expect a marginal decrease. Recent data continue to reflect a disconnect between 'soft' survey data and 'hard 'activity data. We also get the final TLTRO II announcement, where we expect a large take-up. Lastly, there is also a Eurogroup meeting where Greece will be discussed among other things. A busy data week for the UK, with inflation and retail sales the main focus, though we also get public finances data, which should be of little interest given the recent Budget . In Japan, a light calendar ahead - trade balance, BoJ minutes and BoJ's Funo on the agenda. In Canada the main data releases are inflation and retail sales. The week's daily breakdown courtesy of DB's Jim Reid: It looks set to be a fair bit quieter this week. The lone data in Europe this morning is PPI in Germany while in the US the only data due is the Chicago Fed national activity index. On Tuesday the early focus is on the UK with both the February CPI/PPI/RPI prints and also the CBI trends orders data and public sector net borrowing data for last month. In the US we’ll get the current account balance reading. Kicking off Wednesday is Japan where the latest trade data is due. There is nothing of note in Europe on Wednesday while in the US we’ll get the FHFA house price index and February existing home sales. The diary is a bit busier on Thursday with various confidence readings due in France and Germany in the morning along with UK retail sales data for February. Over in the US we will then get new home sales, initial jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index. We end the week with what looks set to be the busiest day on Friday. In the morning we will get the flash March manufacturing PMI in Japan before we then get the flash manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s in Europe. France GDP will also be released. In the US we then end with preliminary February durable and capital goods orders and also the flash manufacturing PMI. Away from the data this week’s Fedspeak consists of Evans this evening, Dudley, George and Mester on Tuesday, Fed Chair Yellen on Thursday along with Kashkari and Kaplan, and then Evans on Friday along with  Bullard. Bundesbank President Weidmann is also due to speak today and the ECB’S Lautenschlaeger on Thursday. The BoJ minutes from the January meeting are due out on Tuesday. Other events worth watching is the live televised debate between the French presidential candidates tonight and also the Euro area finance ministers meeting today, including a discussion on Greece. * * * Finally, here is a focus on just the US courtesy of Goldman Sachs: Monday, March 20 08:30 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Evans will discuss current economic conditions and monetary policy in a live TV interview on Fox Business News with Maria Bartiromo during “Mornings with Maria”. 01:10 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will give a speech at the New York National Association for Business Economics Luncheon in New York. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Tuesday, March 21 06:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will participate in a panel discussion with Bank of England Governor Carney on ethics and culture in banking at an event hosted by the BoE in London. 08:30 AM Current account balance, Q4 (consensus -$128.1bn, last -$113.0bn) 09:45 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will give a speech at the 12th Asia-Pacific High Level Meeting on banking supervision in Bali, Indonesia. 12:00 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give a speech on the US economic outlook and monetary policy at the Women in Housing and Finance luncheon in Washington D.C. Audience Q&A is expected. 06:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give a speech as part of the Robins School of Business Executive Speaker series at the University of Richmond. Wednesday, March 22 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, January (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%): Consensus expects the FHFA house price index to rise 0.4% in January, in line with the pace of growth in December. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices rose 6.2% in December. 10:00 AM Existing home sales, February (GS -3.0%, consensus -2.4%, last +3.3%): We look for a 3.0% decline in February existing homes sales, following last month’s 3.3% increase. Regional housing data released so far suggest a moderate slowdown in closed homes sales, consistent with the 2.8% drop in January pending homes sales (which represent contract signings), and we suspect some of this weakness reflects the impact of higher mortgage rates. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report. Thursday, March 23 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 18 (GS 235k, consensus 240k, last 241k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 11 (last 2,030k): We expect initial jobless claims to decline 6k to 235k, somewhat below its recent trend, reflecting some additional normalization in New York following several volatile weeks affected by the timing of school holidays. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – declined at its fastest pace since mid-January in the most recent report (30k to 2,030k), suggestive of additional labor market improvement. Lastly, we note the year-to-date improvement in several energy-producing states, where initial jobless claims increased modestly last week but remain at a low level. 08:45 AM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give opening remarks at the 2017 Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference in Washington D.C. No Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM New home sales, February (GS +3.0%, consensus +1.8%, last +3.7%): We expect new home sales to rise 3.0% in February, adding to the 3.7% increase last month, reflecting unseasonably warm weather and limited snowfall. We also expect a favorable fundamental backdrop and the elevated level of single-family building permits to mitigate the negative impact of higher mortgage rates on new homes sales activity. On the negative side, sales of new homes in the Northeast region appeared elevated in January and seem likely to retrench. 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +14.0, last +14.0) 12:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will give a speech on US education outcomes and achievement gaps at the 2017 Community Development Research Conference in Washington D.C. Media Q&A is expected. At the March FOMC meeting, President Kashkari was the one dissenter in the committee’s decision to raise the federal funds rate target. 07:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A session on “Tailwinds and Headwinds: The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Friday, March 24 08:00 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Evans will give opening remarks at the 2017 Community Development Research Conference in Washington D.C. 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, February preliminary (GS +2.0%, consensus +1.2%, last +2.0%): Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February preliminary (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.6%, last flat); Core capital goods orders, February preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.1%); Core capital goods shipments, February preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.1%, last -0.4%): We expect durable goods orders to rise 2.0%, driven by higher non-defense aircraft orders indicated by stronger company-reported data. We also believe the details of the report are likely to be strong, reflecting further improvement in manufacturing surveys, solid February industrial production data, encouraging commentary from industrial firms, and Chinese New Year effects that alone could add much as 1.4pp to core capital goods orders. Accordingly, we expect a 0.6% increase in core capital goods orders and a 0.7% increase in core capital goods shipments. We expect durable goods orders ex-transportation to rise 0.8%. 08:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speak: St. Louis Fed President Bullard will give a speech to the Economic Club of Memphis. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 08:30 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will participate in a discussion on a paper titled, "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest" at the Brookings Institution's Papers on Economic Activity spring conference. 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI, March preliminary (consensus 54.7, last 54.2) 10:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will take part in a fireside chat at York College with business and economics students. Audience Q&A is expected. Source: DB. BofA. GS  

20 марта, 13:41

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide Spooked By G20 Protectionist Shift; Dollar Drops For 4th Day

Global markets start the week mixed with Asian stocks rising (Japan was closed for holiday), European stocks sliding, weighed down by declines in oil-and-gas shares and banks, and S&P500 futures also down. The dollar fell to a six-week low, falling four days in a row for the first time since early November as G20 leaders scrap a long-standing commitment to reject all forms of trade protectionism, suggesting the "weak Dollar" camp in Trump's inner circle is winning. Equities retreated in Europe, Australia and New Zealand, as did S&P 500 Index futures. Japan’s stock market was closed Monday for a holiday. Indexes rose in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand. The Australian 10-year yield resumed a retreat after rising at the end of last week. The yen touched its strongest in three weeks, while the Korean won was the highest in five months. Oil fell for the ninth day in 11. "European equity markets have started the week with a heavy risk-off sentiment after the G20 communiqué explicitly reflected U.S. intentions to establish trade protectionist measures," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, told Reuters. "As the world's number one economy is preparing to set significant barriers against the world, investors are increasingly worried," she said. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose almost 0.4 percent to hit its highest level in more than two years on Monday. As a result, MSCI's global benchmark equity index was little changed. On Friday, Wall Street was flat to negative, dragged lower by bank shares that fell along with Treasury yields. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were down 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge rose 0.2 percent last week.  The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 0.2 percent. The FTSE 100 and Dax index were also both down 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index and South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.4 percent. The Hang Seng Index advanced 0.8 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index slid 1.4 percent, the most since November, dragged lower by Fletcher Building Ltd., which identified more expected losses in its construction division. For those readers who missed the weekend's big news, the G20 omitted a pledge to resist all forms of protectionism in its communique from its meeting in Germany over the weekend. That shift followed hours of wrangling that kept officials in suspense on whether the G-20 would even mention trade, with occasional doubts that a communique might be produced at all. Despite some modest weakness, global stocks are coming off their best week since January, even as the dollar has slumped 1.7% after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on March 15 yet didn’t accelerate the timeline for future tightening. The dollar index of its value against a basket of six currencies fell to a six-week low of 100.02 on Monday.  It fell 0.2 percent against the yen before recovering to trade flat on the day at 112.70 yen JPY=D4, while the euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.0770 EUR=.  Citi became the latest major bank to abandon its headline forecast for a fall in the euro to below parity with the dollar, upping its prediction for the single currency over the next six to 12 months to $1.04 from $0.98 previously. The dollar index of its value against a basket of six currencies fell to a six-week low of 100.02 on Monday. It fell 0.2 percent against the yen before recovering to trade flat on the day at 112.70 yen, while the euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.0770. Volatility remains low across markets from equities to currencies and fixed-income as investors strive to assess how sustainable the nascent global economic recovery is.  As the chart below shows, following the recent volley of central bnk announcements, FX volatility has tumbled. The greenback extended its recent decline, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index touching its lowest level since November, pressured by investors who kept the latest bearish trend intact. A Japanese holiday and the previously noted Group-of-20 meeting that left most business unfinished suppressed flows in the major currencies; dropping a reference from the G-20 statement to resist trade protectionism weighed on the dollar, with macro and leveraged accounts adding to shorts positions, according to a London-based trader. Volumes were near the lowest they have been in March, a Europe-based trader noted. The Bloomberg dollar index, the BBDXY dropped, as much as 0.3% to 1223.95, lowest since Nov. 11, before paring decline; investors may look for guidance by speeches by Fed’s Dudley and Yellen expected later this week before meaningfully adjusting their current positioning. Currency markets will also be focused on a raft of speeches by Fed officials this week, including Chicago's Charles Evans on Tuesday and Friday, Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday, Dallas's Robert Kaplan and Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari on Friday and New York's William Dudley on Saturday.  "Sentiment towards the dollar has deteriorated significantly," Societe Generale FX analysts said in a note to clients on Monday. In rates, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen around 10 basis points below 2.50 percent since the Fed raised rates last week for only the third time in over a decade. The gap between two- and 10-year yields has shrunk, meaning the yield curve has flattened. This suggests investors are skeptical growth and inflation will be strong enough to warrant a sustained cycle of rate hikes, and has subsequently weighed on the dollar. In commodities, oil prices continued their downward trend as OPEC supplies remained steady despite touted cuts and rising U.S. drilling contributed to concerns about a supply glut.  U.S. crude dropped 1% to $48.29 a barrel.  Global benchmark Brent fell 0.7% to $51.40.  The weaker dollar boosted gold which rose 0.4 percent at $1,233 an ounce, after touching a two-week high earlier in the session. Bulletin Headline summary from RanSquawk European equities trade modestly lower so far, with Deutsche Bank weighing on the financial sector has they begin their capital raising FX price action has been relatively muted amid light newsflow, while oil trades lower after lEA's Birol highlighted an increase in US oil output Highlights include, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Bundesbank Report and comments from Fed's Evans and BoE's Haldane. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,371.00 MXAP up 0.2% to 148.64 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 481.53 Nikkei down 0.4% to 19,521.59 Topix down 0.4% to 1,565.85 Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 24,501.99 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,250.81 Sensex down 0.5% to 29,516.48 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 5,778.91 Kospi down 0.4% to 2,157.01 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 377.86 German 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.44% Euro up 0.3% to 1.0766 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.4% to $51.58/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 2.357% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 1.886% Brent Futures down 0.4% to $51.58/bbl Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,233.53 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 100.15 Top Overnight News via BBG German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for a concerted effort to defend free trade, expanding the list of economic powers joining together to counter the U.S. shift toward protectionism Money managers cut bets on rising West Texas Intermediate crude by a record amount during the week ended March 14, while wagers on a further price drop doubled as oil remained below $50 a barrel Deutsche Bank to Raise $8.6 Billion After Pricing Share Sale Deutsche Bank Says Revenue to Stay ‘Broadly Flat’ This Year Cerberus-Backed Albertsons Said to Consider Merger With Sprouts Blackstone Venture Acquires $1.4 Billion of Hansteen Properties Hansteen Rises to Highest in 10 Years on Blackstone Asset Sale Alphapharm Begins Recall of Epipen Auto-Injector in Australia Ford’s Lincoln to Offer Its First Hybrid Model in China Arconic Reports Multi-Year Deal Supply With Toyota North America FDA Investigating Rate of Cardiac Events With Abbott’s BVS Cognizant Said to Likely Fire Over 6,000 Employees, ET Now Says In Asian markets, stocks traded mixed amid a lack of key drivers and with Japanese trade closed for the Spring Equinox public holiday, while ASX 200 (-0.5%) was led lower by telecoms and profit-taking in gold related stocks. China was positive with Hang Seng (+0.7%) the outperformer after a firm liquidity injection of CNY 100bIn by the PBoC and as participants digested earnings releases, while Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) lagged after Chinese property prices continued to surge with Bejing prices up over 20% Y/Y, which could essentially attract funds away from stocks. Elsewhere, US equity futures were pressured and broke below Friday's lows, while Nikkei 225 remained shut due to the public holiday. Chinese Property Prices (Feb) Y/Y 11.8% (Prey. 12.2%). PBoC injected CNY 60bIn in 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bIn in 28-day reverse repos. Top Asian News Risk Appetite Goes Missing as Asia Starts the Week: Markets Wrap Yellen’s Shadow Looms Large Over China Central Bank Policy Selling Dollars Is Becoming The New Trump Trade: Markets Live Meitu Erases 28% Surge as Shares Seen Volatile Before Earnings China Said to Temporarily Suspend Beef Imports From Brazil Hong Kong Stocks Extend Weekly Rally as Shenhua Jumps on Payout Credit Suisse Co-Head of Asia Cash Equities Lee Said to Leave Malaysia Should Improve ‘Fragmented’ Military, Honeywell Says Morgan Stanley Said to Lose Second Senior M&A Banker in Asia European bourses have kicked off the week in tentative fashion with the calendar looking somewhat light. EU bourses are trading with minor losses amid slight weakness in the financial sector with Deutsche Bank commencing their EUR 8bIn capital raising plan, while UBS are set to go on trial in their tax case in France. Elsewhere, Vodafone initially saw telecoms as the only sector in the green after agreeing to merge their Indian unit with Idea Cellular, however with Co. shares paring the initial upside amid suggestions that the merger may struggle to pass through regulatory requirements. Price action in fixed income markets has been somewhat contained with Bunds only modestly lower, with slight underperformance observed in the belly of the curve. Ahead of the French TV debate in the presidential race, OATs had been underperforming for much of the morning with the German/French spread widening the most in 2 weeks. Top European News Deutsche Bank Says DoJ Closed Criminal Inquiry in FX Matter Merkel, Abe Call for EU-Japan Deal to Stem Trade Barriers Visco Says ECB Could Shorten Break Between QE Exit And Rate Hike Atos Denies Worldline Preparing Ingenico Bid, Reuters Says Hugo Boss Drops After Report Frere’s GBL Isn’t Shareholder Ingenico Rises After La Lettre Report Worldline Preparing Bid Troim’s Borr Buys Transocean’s Jack-Up Fleet for $1.35 Billion Paris Climate Accord Could Make the World $19 Trillion Richer Vodafone, Idea Agree on Merger to Create India Mobile Leader In currencies, the yen was little changed at 112.74 per dollar as of 8:26 a.m. in London after reaching its strongest since Feb. 28. The euro climbed 0.3 percent to $1.0769, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. The British pound gained 0.2 percent. The South Korean won jumped 1 percent to its highest since Oct. 20, leading gains in emerging Asian markets. The baht also reached its strongest level since October. The USD-index continues to weakn post the G20 meeting as finance leaders caved into pressure from the US and scrapped a commitment to reject all forms of trade protectionism. As such, the pullback in the greenback has supported its major counterparts, with GBP making a break above 1.2400. Additionally, from a UK stand point reports report have been circulating that PM May's closest have been calling for a potential snap election on May 4th in order to take seats from the SNP and reduce the likelihood of a second Scottish referendum. Another thing to keep an eye out for will be the French Election TV debate scheduled at 1900GMT, consequently, price action in EUR could be somewhat tame throughout the day, as has been the case so far, with the notable data of the morning coming I the form of Eurozone labour cost index, which was in line with Exp. ECB's Visco (Dove) said that deflation risk seems to have passed and that the ECB could shorten the time gap between exit from QE and first rate hike. In commodities, another rise in oil rigs continues to put the pressure on crude prices as WTI looks to test USD 48 to the downside, while lEA's Birol added to these concerns having noted that he expects a major boom in US oil output and shale gas volumes. Elsewhere, copper will be in focus after labour unions at Chile's Escondida mine slams new offer from management.  West Texas Intermediate crude slid 0.7 percent to $48.42 a barrel. It has dropped 10 percent this month, heading for the steepest one-month slide since July. Gold rose 0.3 percent to $1,232.97 an ounce, climbing for a fourth day. Base metals fell on the London Metal Exchange, with copper forwards down 0.2 percent and tin retreating 0.3 percent. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.03, prior -0.05 * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Markets look set to be a little less interesting than my bedroom arrangements this week with perhaps the highlights being lots of Fed speakers, the first televised French Presidential debate tonight and the flash global PMIs on Friday. The Fed speakers will likely reinforce the message from the FOMC but watch for signs of increased confidence in their outlook. The French debates might start to lead to some bigger moves in the polls which have been relatively steady of late. As for the PMIs, volatility has been very subdued in the face of high political uncertainty due to continued strong data, especially survey data so the flash PMIs are often the best real time update of the global economic pulse. Over the weekend the G-20 meeting ended with the "resist all forms of protectionism" line dropped from the previous communiqué. The US were the stumbling block but it's still early days in the new Trump administration so for now it seems that markets will wait and see before becoming too scared by the implications. Indeed the more significant meeting may be the G-20 meeting in Hamburg in July by which time some of that uncertainty around the new US administration may have started to clear up. Aside from that the rest of the weekend news has been fairly light. The general view of the meeting between President Trump and Chancellor Merkel was that it was inconclusive with the President also tweeting after that “Germany owes vast sums of money to NATO and the United States must be paid for the powerful, and very expensive, defence it provides to Germany”. Over in markets there hasn’t been too much a reaction to the weekend headlines with bourses generally mixed in Asia, albeit with fairly modest moves. Indices in China are little changed while the Kospi (-0.52%) and ASX (-0.47%) are down. The Hang Seng (+0.53%) is up however and in doing so has passed the 24,000 level for the first time since 2015. Elsewhere, US equity index futures are down about -0.20% while in FX the USD is a smidgen weaker. Staying in Asia, there was also some data released in China over with the weekend with the release of the February house prices data. For new homes excluding subsidized housing, prices were reported as rising in 56 out of the 70 major cities which compares to 45 cities in January. It’s worth noting that Beijing’s municipal government on Friday increased the down payment requirement on second homes by 10% in an attempt to cool prices. The maximum length of a mortgage was also cut to 25 years from 30 years. The relatively quiet start this morning follows Friday’s session in which markets appeared to run out of steam following a packed week. That was certainly the case for equity markets where the S&P 500 closed with a modest -0.13% loss and so capping the weekly return at +0.24%. In Europe the Stoxx 600 did however end +0.16% despite Banks underperforming and so making the weekly return a solid +1.36%. Last week’s winner was EM however with the MSCI EM index rising every day last week, including a +0.25% gain on Friday, to finish +4.26% for the week and the strongest week since July last year. Meanwhile, over in bond markets and following those Nowotny comments late on Thursday suggesting that the ECB could raise the deposit rate before the main refinancing rate and also prior to QE ending, the front end of the Bund curve saw yields tick higher, with 2y yields up 1.8bps to -0.792% and to the highest since February 6th. 10y and 30y Bund yields on the other hand finished 1.4bps and 3.1bps lower. Our European fixed income strategy team highlighted in their weekly on Friday that the market is now pricing a significant probability of a oneoff hike in the deposit facility rate. They note that a 10bp hike is priced by Jan-18, a 15bp hike by May-18 and a 20bp hike by Aug-18. Indeed they believe that the sequencing of the ECB’s easing decisions since the start of QE suggests that a one-off hike in the deposit rate is likely, however at the same time could present some communication challenges highlighted by the steepening of the money market curve in the recent repricing of the timing of the first 10-20bp move in Eonia rates. Elsewhere 10y Treasury yields retraced much of the previous day’s move by falling 4bps to 2.501%. The Fed’s Kashkari spoke – who as a reminder was the lone dissenter at the FOMC vote last week – and said that relatively little change in recent data and his belief that the job market slack remains tilted his vote towards favouring not raising rates. While there wasn’t much particularly going on in markets, Friday was however another busy session for data releases in the US. The most anticipated was the February industrial production report which came in a  little disappointing with production flat during the month versus expectations for a +0.2% mom rise, while capacity utilization also ticked down one-tenth to 75.4%. Manufacturing production did however rise +0.5% mom during the month and matching consensus. Away from that the first look at the March University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading revealed a 1.3pt rise in the headline sentiment reading to 97.6 (vs. 97.0 expected). Most notable in the details was the 3pt rise in the current conditions index to a new high of 114.5. The expectations component on the other hand rose a much more modest 0.2pts to 86.7 while both 1y and 5-10y inflation expectations fell three-tenths each to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively. The other data out on Friday was the conference board’s leading index which rose +0.6% mom in February and the labour market conditions index which strengthened by 1.3 index points in February. All told the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP tracker remains unchanged at 0.9%. That continues to fly in the face of the NY Fed model which, while revised down 0.4% last week, still sits at 2.8%. Over to this week’s calendar now where, after all the excitement last week, it looks set to be a fair bit quieter this week. The lone data in Europe this morning is PPI in Germany while in the US the only data due is the Chicago Fed national activity index. On Tuesday the early focus is on the UK with both the February CPI/ PPI/RPI prints and also the CBI trends orders data and public sector net borrowing data for last month. In the US we’ll get the current account balance reading. Kicking off Wednesday is Japan where the latest trade data is due. There is nothing of note in Europe on Wednesday while in the US we’ll get the FHFA house price index and February existing home sales. The diary is a bit busier on Thursday with various confidence readings due in France and Germany in the morning along with UK retail sales data for February. Over in the US we will then get new home sales, initial jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index. We end the week with what looks set to be the busiest day on Friday. In the morning we will get the flash March manufacturing PMI in Japan before we then get the flash manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s in Europe. France GDP will also be released. In the US we then end with preliminary February durable and capital goods orders and also the flash manufacturing PMI. Away from the data this week’s Fedspeak consists of Evans this evening, Dudley, George and Mester on Tuesday, Fed Chair Yellen on Thursday along with Kashkari and Kaplan, and then Evans on Friday along with  Bullard. Bundesbank President Weidmann is also due to speak today and the ECB’S Lautenschlaeger on Thursday. The BoJ minutes from the January meeting are due out on Tuesday. Other events worth watching is the live televised debate between the French presidential candidates tonight and also the Euro area finance ministers meeting today, including a discussion on Greece.

19 марта, 09:28

США отказали G20 в свободной торговле

Делегация Соединенных Штатов выступила против включения в итоговое коммюнике встречи министров финансов и глав ЦБ стран G20 важного пункта.

18 марта, 17:25

Trump Wins: G-20 Drops 'Anti-Protectionist, Free-Trade, & Climate-Change Funding' Pledge

After delays and hours of discussions amid tensions over 'trade' comments between the United States and the rest of The G-20, it appears President Trump has 'won'. While China was "adamantly against" protectionism, the finance ministers end talks without renewing their long-standing commitment to free trade and rejection of protectionism after US opposition. The world's financial leaders are unlikely to endorse free trade and reject protectionism in their communique on Saturday because they have been unable to find a wording that would suit a more protectionist United States, G20 officials said. This would break with a decade-old tradition among the finance ministers and central bankers of the world's 20 top economies (G20), who over the years have repeatedly rejected protectionism and endorsed free trade. But the new administration in the United States is considering trade measures to curb imports with a border tax and would not agree to repeat the formulations used by previous G20 communiques, clashing with China and Europe, the officials said. "Unless there is a last minute miracle, there is no agreement on trade," one official, who declined to be named, told Reuters.  "This is not a good outcome of the meeting," a G20 delegate quoted Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann as saying. In a partial face-saving move, as The FT details, G20 finance ministers meeting in the German resort town of Baden-Baden noted the importance of trade to the global economy, but dropped tougher language from last year that vowed to “resist all forms of protectionism”. The new communique said: “We are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies. We will strive to reduce excessive global imbalances, promote greater inclusiveness and fairness and reduce inequality in our pursuit of economic growth.”   The watered-down commitments on free trade reflected the anti-globalisation mood that Donald Trump has brought to Washington and came in the first G20 meetings between Steven Mnuchin, the new US Treasury Secretary, and his foreign counterparts. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin spoke to reporters after the meeting: *MNUCHIN: LOOKING FORWARD TO WORKING CLOSELY W/ G-20 COLLEAGUES *MNUCHIN: CONFIDENT U.S. CAN WORK CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH PARTNERS *MNUCHIN: U.S. BELIEVES IN FREE, BALANCED TRADE *MNUCHIN SAYS WILL LOOK AT TRADE SURPLUSES WITH VIEW TO CORRECT *MNUCHIN SAYS MULTILATERAL AGREEMENTS HAVE VERY IMPORTANT PLACE *MNUCHIN SAYS U.S. WANTS TO RE-EXAMINE TRADE DEALS INCL. NAFTA *MNUCHIN: U.S. BELIEVES IN APPROPRIATE REGULATION *MNUCHIN SAYS IMPORTANT BANKS CAN PROVIDE LIQUIDITY IN MARKETS Reuters also points out another potential win for Trump as the communique will also drop a reference, used by the G20 last year, on the readiness to finance climate change as agreed in Paris in 2015 because of opposition from the United States and Saudi Arabia. Trump has called global warming a "hoax" concocted by China to hurt U.S. industry and vowed to scrap the Paris climate accord aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions.   Trump's administration on Thursday proposed a 31 percent cut to the Environmental Protection Agency's budget as the White House seeks to eliminate climate change programs and trim initiatives to protect air and water quality.   Asked about climate change funding, Mick Mulvaney, Trump's budget director, said on Thursday, "We consider that to be a waste of money." The G20 do agree, however, to show continuity in their foreign exchange policies, using phrases from the past on foreign exchange markets. As we noted earlier, needless to say, such an acrimonous end to the weekend's summit would likely result in a surge in FX volatility when markets open for trading late on Sunday, reflecting the new state of global trade flux, in which the future of the US Dollar is completely unknown, and reflecting the emerging chaos over the future parameters of trade. 

16 марта, 21:47

EURUSD Jumps After ECB Hints At Rate Hike, Report Weidmann May Replace Draghi

Having surged after The Fed hiked rates 'dovishly', EURUSD is surging- bouncing off 1.07 the figure - after ECB Council member Nowotny told Handelsblatt that a "rate increase may be on the way." The European Central Bank (ECB) could be heading away from loose monetary policy in a different manner than the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ewald Nowotny, the Austrian ECB council member, told Handelsblatt in an exclusive interview.   The American model was to finish bond purchases first, but this model might not transfer well to Europe, said Mr. Nowotny, who also serves as the Austrian National Bank governor. All interest rates also wouldn’t have to be increased simultaneously nor to the same extent, he added.    “The ECB could also raise the deposit rate earlier than the prime rate,” Mr. Nowotny said. While this may be nothing more than a market-reaction gauging trial balloon, what was more interesting in the German report, is that it suggests in 2019 none other than Europe's uberhawk (if only on paper) Jens Weidmann may replace Mario Draghi. On the topic of the succession of ECB President Mario Draghi, whose term expires in 2019, Mr. Nowotny said that decisions were being made “in the political sphere,” and they were out of the hands of the central bank chiefs.   Mr. Nowotny said he assumes that it will be a selection process between the most qualified. When it comes to the most likely picks, Germany’s central bank president Jens Weidmann and his French colleague François Villeroy de Galhau rank up there, “no doubt about it,” Mr. Nowotny said.   Jens Weidmann is a “highly valued colleague,” Mr. Nowotny said, and the Austrian National Bank has very close relations with the German central bank, the Bundesbank As a result, EURUSD's early weakness is erased. Bund Futures are under pressure on the news (as the TSY-Bund spread narrows).. Selling Bunds, Buying Treasuries

Выбор редакции
15 марта, 19:27

US deregulation may hinder adoption of Basel III – Dombret

Agreement has been reached on most German concerns, but the level of output floors is still key, says the Deutsche Bundesbank official

09 марта, 12:11

Кто в больше всех любит евро?

 Паника вокруг будущего единой валюты нарастает, а крупнейшая экономика Еврозоны между тем без лишнего шума удваивает объем денежной массы в евро. Центробанк Германии является крупнейшим эмитентом бумажных денег валютного союза. Бундесбанк напечатал больше банкнот и монет, находящихся сейчас в обращении, чем все остальные ЦБ Еврозоны вместе взятые. Этот дисбаланс хорошо прослеживается в свежей статистике, опубликованной Европейским центральным банком. Она отражает вклад различных стран в рамках консолиди… читать далее…

06 марта, 20:13

BIS Admits TARGET2 Is A Stealth Bailout Of Europe's Periphery

While debates over the significance of the Eurosystem's TARGET2 imbalances may have faded into the background now that sovereign yields in the Eurozone remains broadly backstopped by the ECB's debt monetization generosity, and fears about an imminent European breakdown fall along the lines of populist votes more than concerns about lack of funding, the BIS has finally chimed in with the truth about what the TARGET2 number really showed. As a reminder, in mid 2012, financial pundits "discovered" the gaping imbalances building up within the Eurozone, as a result of a huge increase in TARGET2 claims at the Bundesbank, offset by a matched surge in liabilities across the European periphery, most notably Italy and Spain. At the time, most conventional economists and analysts, especially those based in Europe, and certainly the ECB, said to ignore the divergence as it was irrelevant. Others, such as Hans Werner Sinn, and this site, warned that TARGET2 is a "less than thinly veiled bailout for Europe's periphery" as the stealth fund flow amounted to a financing of peripheral obligations, illegal under European rules. Then, at the end of January, it was none other than Mario Draghi who, almost 5 years later, made the first tacit admission that the skeptics were right when he explained to Italian lawmakers that a country could leave the euro zone but only first it would need to settle its debts with the bloc's TARGET2 (T2) payments system.  "If a country were to leave the Eurosystem, its national central bank's claims on or liabilities to the ECB would need to be settled in full," Draghi said in the letter. He did not specify in what currency the "settlement" would have to take place.  Draghi then suggested that Italeave is possible, but only if the peripheral European state were to first pay down its roughly €357billion in obligations. In other words, the ECB for the first time admitted what we had said earlier, namely that TARGET2 liabilities, far from some synthetic construct as T2's advocates suggested, were indeed a fungible means to fund the outflows at various peripheral European nations, i.e., a bailout mechanism which however needs to be repaid if a given country had decided that it would no longer need a bailout, tacit or otherwise in the future. Now, in its latest quarterly report, the BIS analysts Raphael Auer and Bilyana Bogdanova confirm precisely what we speculated, and what Draghi implicitly confirmed in January: that TARGET2 was merely the latest covert means in Europe's disposal to fund sovereigns without breaching the Eurozone's anti-state funding clause, to wit: In the period leading up to mid-2012, T2 balances grew strongly (Graph A, left-hand panel) due to intra-euro area capital flight. At the time, sovereign market strains spiked and redenomination risk came to the fore in parts of the euro area. Private capital fled from Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain into markets perceived to be safer, such as Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.       Indeed, during that period, the rise in T2 balances seemed related to concerns about sovereign risk. The blue dots in the centre panel of Graph A show the close relationship between the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads of Italy, Portugal and Spain and the evolution of their combined T2 balance from January 2008 to September 2014. Whenever the CDS spreads of those economies rose, the associated private capital outflows increased their T2 deficit. When the CDS spreads decreased after confidence in the euro area was restored in mid-2012, the capital outflows partly reversed, and T2 deficits dwindled. This is the BIS' effective admission that absent the T2 system, which provided back door funding as "private capital fled" through the front door, the Eurozone would have collapsed, leading to the end of the Euro, the ECB and imminent currency redenomination or as we explained in 2012, a bailout - whether temporary or not - from Germany - which has the most to lose from a Eurozone failure, in the form of a loan, which as Draghi has since explained, must be repaid should a member state contemplate exiting the common currency. However, where things get amusing is that while the BIS admits that in 2012 T2 balances were effectively stealth loans, this time around, record imbalances are something far more "benign" according to the Basel-based organization: TARGET2 (T2) balances are again on the rise. Since early 2015, the T2 balances of euro area national central banks (NCBs) have risen steadily, in some cases exceeding the levels seen during the sovereign debt crisis (Graph A, left-hand panel). However, unlike then, record T2 balances should be viewed as a benign by-product of the decentralised implementation of the asset purchase programme (APP) rather than as a sign of renewed capital flight. Oh ok, so unlike last time around, the massive IOU funded by Germany - again - is nothing to be worried about because it is simply a byproduct of the ECB's QE, which of course, is another stealth way of preventing the Eurozone from imploding by keeping interest rates artificially low. At least back in 2012, Europe did not have Mario Draghi suppressing rates by purchasing €80/60billion or so per month, with the ECB's balance sheet now holding 11% of all corporate bonds in the Euro area. The result was at least a somewhat accurate representation of sovereign risks through record high bond yields. Alas, since then the European bond market has lost all informational relevance as the only trade is whether or not to frontrun the ECB. The BIS then adds that "the current rise seems unrelated to concerns about the sustainability of public debt in the euro area. The red dots in the centre panel of Graph A show that, between October 2014 and December 2016, there was no relationship between the sovereign CDS spreads of Italy, Portugal and Spain and the evolution of their combined T2 balance." As the European interbank market is still fragmented, the liquidity does not circulate in the euro area and T2 imbalances grow as the total holdings under the APP accumulate. Indeed, the overall increase in T2 imbalances can be linked closely to the total purchases under the APP (Graph A, right-hand panel). A recent study, which takes into account the precise geography of the correspondent banks of each and every APP security purchase, shows that APP transactions can almost fully account for the re-emergence of T2 imbalances Well, actually, they are related to concerns of sustainability, however as a result of massive ECB-driven distortions, neither bonds nor CDS are an accurate indicator of sovereign risk. As to whether Europe's fragmented liquidity system and monetary piping - the reason why according to the BIS T2 balances are currently building up - are sufficient to deem the latest build up as benign...   ... we will reserve judgment until the ECB is forced to halt its asset purchase program and perhaps raise rates, leading to the same surge in sovereign bonds yields, not to mention CDS surge, that was the hallmark of the summer of 2012 when T2 imbalances hit their previous all time high. After all, what is the ECB's QE other than merely the latest means to keep the Eurozone together by keeping rates of peripheral bonds ridiculously low. We look forward to a similar report by BIS in the year 2022 when it will, once again, admit that conventional wisdom on Target2 was once again wrong.

06 марта, 12:41

Чего ждал Бундесбанк

В заметке от 14 февраля 2017 года Германское золото перевезлипостарался коротко подвести итог 3-х летней выдающейся работе Бундесбанка и Федерального резерва США по перевозу "золота Германии" во во Франкфурт-на-Майне.9 февраля 2017 года Бундесбанк выпустил релиз о том, что баста -- значительную часть золота вернули в Германию.Всё, что планировалось вывозить до 2020 года, вывезли опережающими темпами.План по вывозу из США выполнен еще в 2016 году -- 300 тонн золота вернулись в ГерманиюПрекрасная новость -- Рейтерс, Блумберг, Нью-Йорк таймс отметили это событиеУдивительно, что участвующая в операциях ФРС США не заметила перемещений)Согласно отчету ФРС от 24 февраля 2017 -- количество иностранного золота снизилось в ФРС снизилось в период, задолго до релиза Бундесбанка.Основные перемещения золота произошли с 2015 по июль 2016, а вообще все перемещения произошли до сентября 2016 года.==================Ровно 50 лет назад завершилась операция по перевозке в США 850 тонн золота.Не в пример нынешним логистически более совершенным времена в те далекие годы золото перебросили за несколько дней.ВВС США брали на борт по 100 тоннПочему Бундесбанк ждал почти полгода, чтобы отсчитаться об успехах проведенной работы?Еще один вопрос -- совсем специальный: есть эксперты, которые уже нашли нестыковки в опубликованном Бундесбанком последнем списке слитков -- предполагается, что часть слитков могла быть переплавлена в золотые монеты

03 марта, 19:03

Текст: Бундесбанк закончил репатриацию золота из Нью-Йорка на три года раньше срока ( Zero Hedge )

Источник 09.02.2017 Количество золота, хранящегося в Германии, впервые превзошло отметку в 1,347 т золота, находящегося в Нью-Йорке, где по состоянию на 27 января 2016 года хранилось 39.9% официальных золотых запасов Германии. «С конца прошлого года Франкфурт стал крупнейшим хранилищем золота с приблизительно 1,403 т желтого металла и обогнал Нью-Йорк», заявил Карл-Людвиг Тиле (Carl-Ludwig Thiele), член исполнительного комитета Бундесбанка. «Перемещение проходит хорошо. Нам снова удалось значительно увеличить объем тра...

03 марта, 11:30

Draghi's Dilemma: Eurozone Inflation Hits 2% With Italy On Bond Life Support

Via Michael Shedlock of MishTalk.com, Eurozone headline inflation hit two percent this week, and that has the inflation hawks in Germany screaming. Yet, ECB president Mario Draghi has promised to maintain QE asset purchases, and Italy has no other real buyer for its bonds. What’s Draghi to do? Headline Inflation Hits Two Percent A milestone.   Annual inflation in the eurozone accelerated to hit 2 per cent for the first time since January 2013 last month, underscoring a sharp rise in prices driven by higher energy costs in the single currency area.   February’s year on year inflation reading, which rose from 1.8 percent and was in line with analyst estimates, comes as inflation hit 2.2 per cent in Germany last month and registered over 3 per cent in Spain.   The eurozone’s core inflation measure, however, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, remained unchanged at 0.9 percent and has remained stubbornly below 1 percent since August 2013. Inflation Dilemma Headache With rising inflation, ECB hawks set to crank up pressure for a move towards exiting aggressive monetary easing. This poses a Policy Dilemma for Draghi. Mario Draghi will get a clear message from European Central Bank hawks next week: drop the doom and gloom.   After four years of weak growth and below-target inflation, price pressures have returned more quickly than the bank expected. Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistics bureau, on Thursday reported that prices rose 2 per cent in the year — rising above a central bank target of “below but close to” 2 percent for the first time since January 2013.   The central bank continues to hold interest rates at historically low levels and has promised to buy €780bn worth of bonds this year as part of its landmark quantitative easing program. Both the rate cuts and the QE program have been a long-running source of irritation, notably among the German political and economic establishment. Influential voices in Berlin have seized on higher German inflation — the country’s annual price rises reached 2.2 per cent in February — to call for rate rises.   Mr. Draghi has so far pledged that he would be ready to cut rates even lower and buy more bonds. His promise is that interest rates would “remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time”. ECB Dissent Last month, Yves Mersch, a member of the ECB’s executive board, asked: “How much longer can we continue to talk about ‘even lower rates’ as being a monetary policy option? Considering the importance of credibility for a central bank, as mentioned, there should be no delay in making the necessary gradual adjustments to our communication.” Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank president, said this week that the central bank would need to raise its forecasts for inflation this year by as much as half a percentage point from a projection of 1.3 per cent, made in December. What’s Draghi to Do? The short answer is nothing. The long answer is Draghi will likely say something like wage growth is weak, energy prices are transitory, and the ECB will instead focus on core HCIP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, roughly equivalent to the CPI in the US). Thus Draghi won’t hike,  and he is not even likely to taper bond purchases yet. Italy on Life Support Italy is on life support and needs a buyer for its bonds. Italy’s 10-year bonds yield 2.138%. Germany’s 10-year bond yield is 0.324%. The spread between 10-year Italian bonds and 10-year German bonds is 181 basis points (1.81 percentage points). If there was no risk of default, the yields would be the same. Italian bonds are at a premium for a reason.  And if the ECB stopped buying Italian bonds, the spread would grow dramatically.

02 марта, 18:05

Is the Euro About to Rally to 120?

The currency markets are signalling that a massive shift might be about to happen. According to a Bank of America/ Merrill Lynch fund manager survey, the US Dollar ($USD) is the single most crowded trade on the planet. In a fiat world, the value of a given currency is based on where it trades relative to other currencies. In the case of the $USD, the Euro comprises 56% of the basket of currencies against which the $USD is valued. Put another way, whatever happens to the Euro will effectively trigger an inverse reaction in the $USD. I mention this because the Euro is about to explode higher to 120 as the ECB ends its QE program and begins talking about hiking rates. I realize this sounds completely insane…  but take a look at the data: Inflation in the EU is erupting higher. German inflation topped 2% for the first time since 2012. The rise in German inflation, to 2.2 per cent in February, took annual price rises above the ECB’s target rate for the eurozone of close to but under 2 per cent. It came as Jens Weidmann, the president of Germany’s Bundesbank, said the ECB would have to raise its eurozone inflation forecast this month on the back of rising oil prices and a strengthening economy. Source: Financial Times This is spreading across Europe. Euro zone inflation is likely to be sharply higher in 2017 than projected but will still dip towards the end of the year, Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann said on Wednesday, arguing that accommodative monetary policy remains appropriate. With inflation surging on higher oil prices, and criticism of the European Central Bank (ECB) mounting in Germany ahead of September's elections, pressure has increased on the ECB to at least start a discussion about when and how it would scale back its extraordinary stimulus measures. Source: Reuters With inflation surging, there is NO reason for the ECB to be engaged in a massive €60 billion per month QE program. The ECB will be forced to taper this program if not end it entirely in the very near future. This will ignite the Euro to 120 if not higher. The EU currency is beyond oversold. Even Germany has admitted that it is too low. The markets are already smelling this: despite all the hoopla about the $USD being THE asset class to own, the Euro is actually outperforming the $USD thus far in 2017 (albeit marginally). Give the hype surrounding the $USD and the DOOM surrounding the Euro, you’d expect the $USD to be 5% or more than the EU currency. NOPE. Massive tectonic changes in the market are rarely perceived in advance. But given the above factors (excessive popularity of the $USD, inflation in the EU, talk of tapering QE by the ECB) we have the makings of a “rip your face off” rally in the Euro. For more investment insights, swing by www.gainspainscapital.com Best Regards Graham Summers Chief Market Strategist Phoenix Capital Research    

02 марта, 14:43

S&P Futures Drop As Global Market Rally Pauses; Dollar Rises On Rate Hike Concerns

The relentless risk rally which took the Dow above 21,000 and the S&P over 2,400, has taken a breather overnight, with S&P futures modestly lower tracking European stocks, while Asian stocks advanced on US momentum; late Wednesday comments by a unexpectedly hawkish Lael Braniard has pushed the dollar higher, pressuring oil lower. Fed Governor Lael Brainard said late Wednesday it will probably be “appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation,” boosting expectations for higher borrowing costs. Traders are pricing in an 86% chance of a rate increase at the March 15 decision, more than double the odds last Friday, Fed fund futures showed. As rates creep higher, threatening to disrupt the basis of the Fed's argument for why stocks are not in a bubble, the goalseeked narrative continues to threat a fine line, and while higher interest rates would raise U.S. companies' costs, they are also being "explained" as a sign of confidence in the economy and, along with U.S. President Donald Trump's speech to Congress, were cited as factors behind Wall Street's rise. In Europe, today we got February CPI data which as expected rose to 2.0% for the first time since 2013 - matching the ECB's inflation target - while core inflation rose 0.9% Y/Y, on one hand pressuring the ECB to move, on the other giving it a loophole to tell the Bundesbank that core inflation is still low. However, while CPI was in line, PPI rose more than expected, with headline PPI risin 3.5% Y/Y, well above the 3.2% expected. Meanwhile, major slack remains in the European labor force, which printed at 9.6% unemployment for January. The European STOXX 600 index fell 0.1% after adding 1.5% on Wednesday and hitting its highest since December 2015, as losses on consumer-related stocks outweigh gains in miners and construction companies, which are among shares deemed most sensitive to economic growth. The biggest contributor to gains on the Stoxx 600 was Roche Holding AG, up 5.8 percent after its breast-cancer medicine Perjeta succeeded in the company’s most anticipated patient study, a key step for a franchise that could exceed $9 billion in sales by 2021. Among shares active on corporate results, Travis Perkins Plc slid 6.6 percent after the building-materials distributor said the post-Brexit slump in sterling is pressuring its supply chain. Melrose Industries Plc jumped 13 percent after posting a jump in 2016 underlying profit. For now the biggest support for European stocks appears to be a technical one: it is shown with the purple and green lines in the chart below. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3 percent, while Japan's Nikkei .N225 closed up 0.9 percent after hitting a 14-month high as a weaker yen helped exporters. In currencies, the dollar index hit a seven-week high. The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.0535, the yen fell 0.5 percent to 114.26 per dollar and sterling was flat at $1.2290, having earlier touched a six-week low around $1.2260. In rates, the prospect of higher rates and a potential $1 trillion boost to U.S. infrastructure sought by Trump pushed U.S. Treasury bond yields higher on Wednesday, but they pulled back from those highs on Thursday. Rate-sensitive two-year yields edged up to 1.292%, off Wednesday's peak of 1.308 percent, its highest since 2009. German 10-year yields pulled back from the day's highs after data showing euro zone inflation hit the European Central Bank's 2 percent target last month, as expected. ING's global head of debt and rates strategy Padhraic Garvey said prior to the data that such a reading could extend the bearish momentum in bonds. Commodities were focused on the third consecutive drop in oil prices after data showed another record build-up in U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude fell 11 cents to $56.25 a barrel. The stronger dollar weighed on metals prices, which wee buoyed however, by signs of growing demand. Chinese factory activity expanded faster than expected in February, purchasing manager data showed on Wednesday. Copper fell 0.3 percent to $5,995 a tonne. Gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,245 an ounce. * * * Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European equities take a breather from some of the rampant gains seen in recent days to trade relatively flat across the board The USD may be on the front foot, but further gains from levels achieved yesterday are modest at best Looking ahead, highlights include U.S Initial Jobless Claims, Canadian GDP, Fed's Powell and ECB'S Lautenschlager Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2391 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 375.00 MXAP up 0.2% to 145.06 MXAPJ up 0.1% to 466.34 Nikkei up 0.9% to 19,564.80 Topix up 0.8% to 1,564.69 Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 23,728.07 Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,230.03 Sensex down 0.6% to 28,816.51 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 5,776.59 Kospi up 0.5% to 2,102.65 Brent Futures down 0.9% to $55.83 Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,244 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 101.98 German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.295% Euro down 0.2% to 1.0526 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.6% to $56.00/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 3.8 bps to 2.124% Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to 1.716% Top Overnight News via BBG Sessions Met Twice With Russian Envoy During Trump Campaign Snap IPO Values Photo-Chat App Maker at Twice Facebook’s Worth Henkel to Buy GCP’s Darex in First Major Adhesive Deal in a Decade Mexico Said to Consider Fed Swap Line; Carstens Denies It West Corp. Said to Attract Bids From Advent, Apollo and KKR Cisco Victory in Second Case Against Arista to Be Reviewed Icahn to Sell Trump Taj Mahal to Group Led by Hard Rock Mystery Traders Said to Make Millions Illegally on Fortress Deal Yahoo Chief Counsel Exits After Hack Probe Finds Inaction Tesla Overcomes China Stumbles as Sales Triple, Pass $1 Billion Intercept’s Ocaliva Recommended by U.K.’s NICE Seacor Postpones 4Q on Possible Weaknesses in Internal Controls Asia stocks traded mostly higher as regional markets carried over the momentum from the record day on Wall St. where the DJIA and the S&P 500 broke above 21,000 and 2,400 respectively, as financials led on increased prospects of a March Fed rate hike. This bolstered ASX 200 (+1.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.9%) with the former led by strength in mining and material sectors. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and the Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) lagged after the PBoC kept its daily liquidity operations at a paltry CNY 30bIn and as the banking regulator signalled to restrict shadow banking growth. 10yr JGBs were flat as early pressure alongside strength in riskier assets was reversed following a 10yr JGB auction where the b/c and average prices increased from prior, while the tail-in-price also narrowed. Top Asian News China’s Didi Said to Weigh Raising Billions in Fresh Capital Malaysia Holds Rates as Faster Inflation Limits Scope to Ease China’s New Watchdog to Tackle Shadow Banking, Property Bubbles Investors With $6.6 Trillion Reveal Bets on Chinese Politics Nalco to Pay Higher-Than-Expected Interim Dividend; Shares Rise Yuan’s Calm Faces Test With Dollar Rally as Fed Rate Bets Surge Brokerage Misreported 6b Yen of Tokai Carbon OTC Trades: JSDA Inflation Spike Puts Southeast Asian Central Banks on Watch Poor Man’s Gold Spurned as Indian Farmers Strapped for Cash ONGC Said to See Spending Plans Curtailed by Potential Merger Delhi Municipal Body to Conduct Auction of Taj Mansingh Property European bourses have taken a breather from some of the rampant gains seen in recent days to trade relatively flat across the board. As such, stock specific news took major focus with SMI large cap Roche leading the way higher after positive developments regarding their breast cancer treatment. Elsewhere, earnings from Capita, Adecco, Luxottica and AB Inbev have seen their respective shares trade lower, with LafargeHolcim's earnings report seeing the Co.'s shares trade in the green. Fixed income markets have seen gilts outperform this morning amid touted short covering, while elsewhere Bunds trade in negative territory and below the 165 level, with supply from France, UK and Spain digested by the market. Contacts also highlighted a midmorning wave of BTP selling in screens in the belly of the curve of around EUR 400mln according to some contacts. Top European News Roche’s Aphinity Succeeds, Boosting Breast-Cancer Business Sberbank Shakes Off Recession to Earn Record Profit in 2016 Credit Suisse CFO Sees Bank’s Growth Slowing Capital Build U.K. Construction May Weaken as ‘Intense’ Brexit Inflation Bites Switzerland’s Economy Grows Less Than Expected on Weak Exports Sessions Spoke With Russian Envoy During Trump’s 2016 Campaign Engie Sees 2017 Earnings Growth on Cost Cuts Following 2016 Dip Is Investment Recommends Taking Profit in Turkish Stocks Turkish Lira Slides on Concern Over Central Bank Bond Buying GAM Beats Profit Estimates Even as Performance Fees Drop 96% JCDecaux Gains; Guidance Less Severe Than Expected, Kepler Says In currencies, the USD is again on the front foot, but further gains from levels achieved yesterday are modest at best, with some key levels coming into focus and containing some of the euphoria over the likelihood over a March Fed rate hike. USD/JPY has fared the best, posting a comfortable move through 114.00, but exporter offers are said to wait above 114.50 as Japanese year end looms (at month end) with billions said to be left to hedge. The second reading of EU inflation produced no surprises, and with French and Dutch election headlines thin on the ground, we continue to see the EUR spot rate meandering in the low 1.0500's. Many anticipated some congestion at these levels, and there are few signs as yet that this will change materially over the session. Gains seen against the AUD to suggest s delayed reaction to the much larger than expected drop in the Australian trade surplus, but this has come in tandem with losses in NZD and CAD, though the latter is now coming against some strong resistance at 1.3400. AUD/USD is still trading on a 0.7600 handle though, having dropped a modest 1.2 cents since the turnaround in USD sentiment. In commodities, precious metals lower still in line with the higher USD and lower Treasuries, but today's price action shows modest losses as yet as the progress in the greenback slows. The March rate hike odds have clearly driven trade, but some notable resistance starting to materialise. Gold looks to be content around the USD1245.00 level for now. Silver pivots on USD18.30-40. Oil prices have backed off again as supply issues dictate. The overall range — in WTI and Brent — are largely influential however, and the former ahead of USD55.00 looks well contained irrespective of inventory levels and/or news on OPEC/non OPEC compliance. All base metals showing modest losses on the day so far, but we have seen strong gains over the last 24-48 hours, where Copper and Iron Ore have been bolstered by production curbs (China) and broader supply issues (strikes in Chile). The day ahead looks set to be a fair bit lighter for data. In the US the sole data release is the latest weekly initial jobless claims print. The Fedspeak looks set to go quiet with no officials scheduled to speak while at the ECB Lautenschlaeger is due to speak this evening. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 245,000, prior 244,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.06m, prior 2.06m 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 48 7pm: Fed’s Mester Speaks on Leadership in New York * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The biggest questions from investors last night centred around whether Trump trades would ever fully materialise or were more based on a mirage and also on everything happening with European Government bonds at the moment. There was a big post mortem into the extreme events in German government bonds from last week. Clients didn't really buy the redenomination risk story but our own Francis Yared didn't think anything has majorly changed on the collateral shortage front to justify the recent large move. So still difficult to put a finger on the full reason for some of the recent fixed income moves except to say that in what is a traditionally risk free market, some investors have absolutely no tolerance for risk and therefore buying Bunds last week when French risk was at a local peak made sense to them. And given these were particularly risk averse investors then perhaps the rest of the market could ignore it as a market signal to run for cover in other assets. Those questions about Mr Trump are still unanswered in the wake of his speech yesterday given the lack of any additional detail but the market has been in party mood over the last 24 hours. The spotlight for markets was well and truly hogged by the comments from the Fed’s Dudley and Williams the night before which helped the S&P 500 close up +1.37% - its best day since November 7th. That is also the first 1% move (up or down) since December 7th or a run of 57 consecutive days which was the longest run in nearly 3 years. The Dow (+1.46%) also closed above 21,000. Back on the 26th of January we highlighted how the Dow had just crossed the 20,000 level and that it had only taken 64 calendar days to go from 19,000 to 20,000 which was the second quickest ever. Well the next 1000 point move to 21,000 took just 35 days which in fact matches the quickest ever. Obviously the percentages get smaller as the index goes higher but it is notable nonetheless. Meanwhile the risk on mood was shared in Europe too yesterday with the Stoxx 600 (+1.47%) also surging higher. Credit markets weren’t left out. CDX IG closed 2.4bps tighter and the iTraxx Main and Crossover indices were 2bps and 9bps tighter respectively. This morning we’ve seen Asian bourses follow suit with the Nikkei (+1.14%), Hang Seng (+0.41%), Kospi (+0.48%) and ASX (+1.18%). China is flat perhaps reflecting some caution ahead of this weekend’s National People’s Congress gathering. Elsewhere the moves for rates have unsurprisingly been concentrated at the short end of the Treasury curve. Before we dig through them it’s worth highlighting that late last night the Fed’s Brainard – who is considered one of the most dovish Fed officials – said that a rate hike will be “appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation”. 2y Treasury yields, at 1.290% this morning, are up about 10bps from the moments prior to Williams and Dudley speaking and hit the highest on an intraday basis since 2009. 10y yields are at 2.458% and up about 10bps too. Bloomberg’s calculator (which slightly overstates things) continues to show an 80% probability priced in for March, from 52% earlier this week. Yields also surged in Europe yesterday. 10y Bund yields rose 7.5bps to 0.278% and had their weakest day since January 3rd. There is clearly a lot of political risk that resides in markets in 2017 and this is something we still think creates periodic bouts of volatility. However data will be the key to risk asset performance over the whole year assuming political risk is eventually contained. With that yesterday's global PMIs showed that the recent up move in equities can be justified. In the PDF today we republish the charts we've often used with PMIs from major countries alongside the YoY change in equity markets with a table as to where the PMI suggest equity markets should be YoY. At the moment the PMIs across the key markets suggest equities should be approximately 10-20% higher than a year ago. This is pretty much where they are with some regional variations. We always say this should be a general guide to valuations and works best looking across the board rather than to individual markets where quirks can lead to temporary divergence from 'fair value'. While data remains this strong, equities are doing what they should be expected to. We still think political risk (and perhaps later rising yields) will likely lead to a temporary dislocation but not a lasting one over the coming months. While we’re mentioning politics there was an update to highlight in the French presidential race yesterday. It centred on Francois Fillon following the news that a formal investigation has now been launched over the alleged arrangement of a fictitious job for his wife. Fillon had previously said that he would quit the presidential race should a formal investigation be launched however yesterday he pledged to continue with his candidacy, despite one of his more senior advisers resigning in the process. We’ll wait to see how much of an impact that has on the polls, if any. Staying in Europe, the latest polls for the Dutch elections have revealed fading momentum for Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party. The Peilingwijzer poll aggregator now has the Liberals as taking between 23 and 27 seats versus 22 to 26 for the Freedom Party. That is the first time since November that the Liberals have gone ahead in the poll of polls. Finally in the UK the House of Lords voted in favour (by 358 votes to 256) of an amendment to the Brexit bill that will protect the rights of EU nationals to remain living in the UK when the country leaves the EU. The legislation is now to return to the House of Commons, so worth watching when it lands. In terms of yesterday’s data, it was the solid 1.7pt rise in the ISM manufacturing print in the US in February to 57.7 (vs. 56.2 expected) which stood out most. That is the best reading since August 2014 while the details revealed a decent jump in the new orders index to 65.1 from 60.5. On the inflation front the January personal income reading did reveal a slightly bigger than expected +0.4% mom rise in income (vs. +0.3% expected) although there was a little bit of disappointment in the spending data with personal spending up only +0.2% mom (vs. +0.3% expected). Real spending also declined more than expected (-0.3% mom vs. -0.1% expected). The PCE deflator rose +0.4% mom which lifted the YoY rate to +1.9% from +1.6% while the core came in at +0.3% mom as expected and so leaving the annual rate at +1.7%. The remaining data consisted of a soft construction spending print in January (-1.0% mom vs. +0.6% expected) and vehicle sales data which showed annualized sales as holding steady in February. It’s worth noting that as a result of the real personal consumption data, the Atlanta Fed lowered their Q1 GDP forecast to 1.8% from 2.5%. Before we wrap, for completeness yesterday’s Markit manufacturing PMI in the US was confirmed at 54.2 which is a small one-tenth downward revision from the initial flash. The Euro area PMI was confirmed at 55.4 (from 55.5) compared to 55.2 in January and is now at the highest level since 2011. Regionally in Europe the standouts were Germany (56.8; 69-month high), Italy (55.0; 14-month high) and the Netherlands (58.3; 70-month high). The UK came in at a slightly more disappointing 54.6 from 55.7 in January. Staying with the UK, mortgage approvals data yesterday revealed that approvals printed at 69.9k in January which was a fair bit ahead of the 68.7k expected. Unsecured lending came in at £1.4bn which was in-line but down from the £1.6bn average of the previous six months. The last data to note yesterday was that out Germany. Headline inflation rose +0.7% mom in February which has had the effect of pushing the YoY rate up from +1.9% to +2.2% and at a four and a half year high. The day ahead looks set to be a fair bit lighter for data. In Europe this morning  the most notable release is likely to be the February CPI data for the Euro area where the consensus is for a two-tenths lift in the headline rate to +2.0% but the core to hold steady at +0.9% yoy. PPI and the latest unemployment rate for the Euro area will also be released. In the US this afternoon the sole data release is the latest weekly initial jobless claims print. The Fedspeak looks set to go quiet with no officials scheduled to speak while at the ECB Lautenschlaeger is due to speak this evening.

01 марта, 16:12

German Inflation Jumps 2.2%, Surpassing ECB Target And Highest Since 2012

Following a series of "hot" inflation prints from Germany's states, moments ago German inflation rose more than expected, printing at 2.2% above the 2.1% consensus estimate, up from 1.9% in January and surpassing the ECB's target of a rate just under 2 percent for the first time in more than four years. With Germany headed for federal elections in September, the inflation figures will add more fuel to the debate about an end to the European Central Bank's loose monetary policy. Earlier on Wednesday, preliminary data from several German states showed that consumer price inflation accelerated across the country, mainly driven by higher food, energy and transportation costs. In the most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, annual inflation rose to 2.3 percent from 1.9 percent in January. It reached 2.5 percent in Hesse, 2.2 percent in Baden-Wuerttemberg, 2.1 percent in Bavaria, 2.0 percent in Brandenburg and 2.4 percent in Saxony. The state readings, which are not harmonised to compare with other euro zone countries, fed into the just as hot nationwide inflation print released moments ago.  Yet not everyone was convinced Germany's blistering headline inflation would be a hindrance to the ECB. Cited by Reuters, Capital Economics analyst Jennifer McKeown said the state readings supported the forecast, but German core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food costs, was likely to remain weak in the coming months.  "This should encourage the ECB to implement its asset purchases as planned," McKeown said. That said, a sustained rebound in German inflation would give Bundesbank President and ECB rate setter Jens Weidmann more grounds to argue for a reduction in the ECB's bond-buying programme, a scheme that he has often criticised. The German central bank has warned that homes in large German cities are 15 to 30% overpriced, in a message that stoked further fears about the side-effects of the ECB's stimulus. The inflation rate for the entire euro zone is expected to rise to 2.0 percent in February from 1.8 percent in January, economists polled by Reuters said. Those figures are due on Thursday.

Выбор редакции
27 февраля, 05:14

The power of gold: Why Deutsche Bundesbank had to promise to leave 1200 tons in New York

from Norbert Häring With big fanfare, Deutsche Bundesbank announced on February 9 that ahead of plan they had repatriated 300 tons of gold from New York. This put a positive spin on a rather disturbing fact –1236 tons of gold that is supposed to be part of Germany’s currency reserve will continue to be kept outside of […]

26 февраля, 23:15

The European Debt Bomb Fuse Is Lit! Target2 Imbalances Hit Crisis Levels

Submitted by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Eurozone Target2 imbalances have touched or exceeded the crisis levels hit in 2012 when Greece was on the verge of leaving the Eurozone. Others have noted the growing imbalances as well. I had a couple of questions for the ECB regarding Target2, which they have answered, I believe disingenuously. First, we will explain Target2, then we will take a look at various charts, viewpoints, and the email exchange with the ECB. Target2 Background Target2 stands for Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement System. It is a reflection of capital flight from the “Club-Med” countries in Southern Europe (Greece, Spain, and Italy) to banks in Northern Europe. Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog provides this easy to understand example: “Spain imports German goods, but no Spanish goods or capital have been acquired by any private party in Germany in return. The only thing that has been ‘acquired’ is an IOU issued by the Spanish commercial bank to the Bank of Spain in return for funding the payment.” This is not the same as an auto loan from a dealer or a bank. In the case of Target2, central banks are guaranteeing the IOU. Target2 also encompasses people yanking deposits from a bank in their country and parking them in a bank in another country. Greece is a nice example, and the result was capital controls. If Italy or Greece (any country) were to leave the Eurozone and default on the target2 balance, the rest of the countries would have to make up the default according to their percentage weight in the Eurozone. Target2 Imbalances Those numbers are as of December 2016. A check of the Bundesbank Target2 Balance as of January 31, 2017 shows a new record high of €797 billion. As of December 2016, if Italy were to exit the Eurozone, Italy would owe €356.6 billion to Germany, Luxembourg, and a couple other small creditors. What’s the likelihood Italy could ever pay back €356.6 billion? Unpayable debts Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Telegraph notes the unpayable debts then asks Are Eurozone Central Banks Still Solvent? Vast liabilities are being switched quietly from private banks and investment funds onto the shoulders of taxpayers across southern Europe. It is a variant of the tragic episode in Greece, but this time on a far larger scale, and with systemic global implications.   There has been no democratic decision by any parliament to take on these fiscal debts, rapidly approaching €1 trillion. They are the unintended side-effect of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, which has degenerated into a conduit for capital flight from the Club Med bloc to Germany, Luxembourg, and The Netherlands.   This ‘socialization of risk’ is happening by stealth, a mechanical effect of the ECB’s Target2 payments system. If a political upset in France or Italy triggers an existential euro crisis over coming months, citizens from both the eurozone’s debtor and creditor countries will discover to their horror what has been done to them.   As always, the debt markets are the barometer of stress. Yields on two-year German debt fell to an all-time low of minus 0.92pc on Wednesday, a sign that something very strange is happening. “Alarm bells are starting to ring again. Our flow data is picking up serious capital flight into German safe-haven assets. It feels like the build-up to the eurozone crisis in 2011,” said Simon Derrick from BNY Mellon.   The Target2 system is designed to adjust accounts automatically between the branches of the ECB’s family of central banks, self-correcting with each ebb and flow. In reality, it has become a cloak for chronic one-way capital outflows.   Private investors sell their holdings of Italian or Portuguese sovereign debt to the ECB at a profit, and rotate the proceeds into mutual funds Germany or Luxembourg. “What it basically shows is that monetary union is slowly disintegrating despite the best efforts of Mario Draghi,” said a former ECB governor. The Banca d’Italia alone now owes a record €364bn to the ECB – 22pc of GDP – and the figure keeps rising.   Spain’s Target2 liabilities are €328bn, almost 30pc of GDP.  Portugal and Greece are both at €72bn. All are either insolvent or dangerously close if these debts are crystallized.   On the other side of the ledger, the German Bundesbank has built up Target2 credits of €796bn. Luxembourg has credits of €187bn, reflecting its role as a financial hub. This is roughly 350pc of the tiny Duchy’s GDP, and fourteen times the annual budget. Mish Questions for the ECB – January 27, 2017 Many media reports suggest the growing target2 imbalance in Italy is a sign of capital flight. ECB president Mario Draghi said it was a function of ECB asset purchases. Can you explain why Draghi is right or wrong?   Please also explain the growing target2 imbalance at the ECB itself.   ThanksMish ECB Response – February 15, 2017 Dear Mr. Shedlock, Thank you for your email and please accept our apologies for the late reply.   The implementation of the APP affects TARGET balances through cross-border settlement of our purchases. For more information on this particular mechanism, please see ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 7 / 2016 – Box 2: TARGET balances and the asset purchase programme (pages 21-24).   As regards the ECB’s own Target balance, when the ECB purchases securities under the APP, the ECB credits the account of the respective counterparty. Such counterparties are credit institutions, which cannot hold accounts with the ECB, but instead, hold accounts with national central banks. Therefore, payment for a security by the ECB automatically increases the ECB’s TARGET liability (but not necessarily the overall TARGET balance). This is discussed in the Bundesbank’s March 2016 Monthly Report (pages 53-55).   With best regards, TARGET HotlineEUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK Disingenuous ECB Response I have been talking about Target2 imbalances for years, and I do not accept ECB’s response straight up. Euro intelligence also discussed this very question recently. They have it correct, as follows, emphasis mine: One of the barometers of tension in the Eurozone is the number of articles in the German press questioning the euro’s advantages to the country. The publication of the latest Target2 imbalances is not helping soothe nerves. As of end January, the German surplus was at an all-time record of €796 billion, while Italy’s deficit was at a record €364 billion. The ECB argues that the reason for the gap is not the same as it was during the Eurozone crisis when the imbalances reflected capital flight.   Philip Plickert writes in FAZ that this argument does not tell the full story. It is true, of course, that international banks based in London sell bonds to the Bank of Italy from their Frankfurt-based branches – so that the asset purchases result in transfers of central bank money from Italy to Germany. But why do the sellers not replenish their portfolios with purchases of Italian bonds, shares or other assets? Instead, they take the money and invest in Germany. So this is still capital flight – except that it works indirectly through the asset purchase programme. Simple Target2 Explanation Reader Lars writes: “Target 2 is a settlement system. When imbalances arise it’s because transactions are not settled. For example, Luigi in Italy transfers his €1 million from his Monte dei Paschi (MdP) account to his new Deutsche Bank account. MdP does not have the €1 million and has to borrow it from Bank of Italy. The Bank of Italy has to borrow the €1 million from Bundesbank. So at the end of the day, Luigi gets the €1 million into his account in DB but the Bank of Italy now owes €1 million to Bundesbank.” Do that long enough and this is what happens: The Banca d’Italia, Italy’s central bank, owes a record €364 billion to creditors, 22 percent of GDPand rising. The Banco de España, Spain’s central bank owes €328 billion to creditors, almost 30 percent of GDP. Other nations owe smaller amounts. Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog commented via Email “I agree with the eurointelligence view that the steep Italian and Spanish deficits are still a testament to capital shunning various countries. To put it very simply: people managing large sums of Other People’s Money for institutions subject to fiduciary duty continue to have doubts about the euro’s survival, and rightly so. Reader Lars replied: “It seems to me that the ECB is trying to complicate matters and kick the ball into the tall grass. In regards to the ECBs €160 billion Target2 deficit, it might be the case that the ECB has borrowed from Bundesbank and then lent the money to other national central banks (NCBs) because the Bundesbank has not been willing to do all the heavy lifting itself. Is the Bundesbank shunning risk at local NCBs?” Rating Agencies Where Art Thou? The rating agencies should be all over this issue but they are not. Here are two possible explanations. The rating agencies are in bed with central banks or creditors They do not understand Target2 Huge Insurmountable Problem Target 2 is one of the least discussed and least understood problems in the Eurozone. Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank president, allowed nearly €800 billion in credit to build on his watch. One has to wonder: Is Weidmann moving into illegal territory? Egon von Greyerz, Founder & Managing Partner, Matterhorn Asset Management AG, made a comment similar to what I have stated many times: “Germany is in bigger trouble than Italy, Spain, or Portugal. Those countries can’t pay so Germany will have to foot the bill.” Alternatively, the Bundesbank and the ECB are going to print money to cover those losses! Greece alone is unlikely to trigger a crisis now, but Italy, Spain, or France could. Fuse is Lit The fuse is lit, multiple fuses actually. Italy Increasingly Likely to Abandon the Euro “Italeave” Odds Increase: Rebellion in Italy, Matteo Renzi’s PD Party to Split French Elections: Another “Unthinkable” Result Coming Up? Gold’s Reaction Recent strength in gold is likely based on increasing doubts central banks are once again out of control. Of course, central banks were never really in control, but appearances matter. For further discussion, please consider Rate Hike Cycles vs. the US Dollar: Rate Hikes Bad for Gold?

26 февраля, 07:59

Кому принадлежат мировые СМИ (Новость от 2011 года, но актуальна сейчас, как никогда)

Всего лишь ПЯТЬ гигантов диктуют, о чем массы должны думать и как им нужно развлекатьсяС осени 2003 года официальный контроль над СМИ "цивилизованных наций международного сообщества", полученный путем скупки большей части акций, сконцентрирован в руках всего лишь пяти медиагигантов: - "АОЛ Тайм Уорнер"- "Вайеком"- "Эн-Би-Си Юниверсал"- "Бертельсманн"- "Мердок Ньюс Корп" Поиск в Интернете слов "Media Giants" поможет узнать актуальный статус и проинформировать, какие конкретные фирмы (кино, новости, телевидение, радио, Интернет, музыка и т. д.) контролируются медиагигантами. А это - (почти) все, что есть на рынке.Итак,всего лишь ПЯТЬ гигантов диктуют, о чем массы должны думать и как им нужно развлекаться. Не должен ли настораживать уже сам этот факт? Неужели это так уж невозможно, что главные акционеры или люди, принимающие решения в этих пяти медиагигантах, преследуют общую цель / идеологию или служат одним и тем же хозяевам?..Если кто-то предполагает, к примеру, что медиагигант "Бертельсманн ГмбХ" - типично немецкая фирма из мирного провинциального Гютерсло, он забывает, что по крайней мере одним из его влиятельных участников (25%) является международная инвестиционная компания "Групп Брюссель Ламбер", которая вкладывает деньги либо от собственного имени, либо тайно, от имени клиента.Короче: тот, кто хотел бы остаться анонимом, купит себе для начала, скажем, один или несколько маленьких банков или инвестиционных фирм, чтобы потом через них как нейтральных третьих лиц вкладывать деньги в медиагигант и, таким образом, оставаться в тени.Об этом знал еще старый Ротшильд уже примерно 150 лет назад. Он делал инвестиции в США не от собственного имени, а выдвигал вперед своих "тайных партнеров" - Рокфеллера и Дж. П. Моргана. Его официальными представителями были тогда банкирский дом "Варбург" и Якоб Шифф - директор инвестиционного банка "Кун, Лёб и Ко". Почему сегодня это должно быть по-другому? И сегодня сэр Эвелин де Ротшильд (в Великобритании), его брат Дэвид де Ротшильд (во Франции) и другие члены семьи инвестируют не от собственного имени, а, кроме всего прочего, через тайный холдинг "Конкордия". "Конкордия" контролируется холдингом "Ротшильд континуэйшн холдинг". "Континуэйшн" - главный акционер известного банка "НМ Ротшильд". Пакеты акций, которые держатся от имени доверенных лиц или других секретных холдинг-компаний, остаются неизвестными.Похожая ситуация - и у "Бертельсманна": 57,3% акций "Бертельсманна" держит благотворительный фонд "Бертельсманна", 17,3% принадлежат семье Мон. Право голоса на 75% принадлежит управленческой компании и на 25% - "Брюссель Ламбер".Порядочным людям видна только активная поддержка, которую оказывает благотворительный фонд "Бертельсманна" Израилю. Но ведь это - самое малое, что должно крупное немецкое предприятие "святой земле"... И может ли этот долг быть когда-нибудь полностью выплачен? Или его можно требовать снова и снова в любое время?Доверенные лица, подставные лица и тайные компаньоны.Каждая группировка, которая желала бы остаться анонимной, пользуется услугами зицпредседателей (доверенных лиц, марионеток), чтобы скрыть собственные интересы в монополии и исключить риски. Снабженные необходимым капиталом, те активизируются: официально - от собственного имени и в своих интересах, неофициально - в интересах хозяев. Тот, кто выходит за пределы дозволенного, может смертельно заболеть или испытать такую депрессию, что самоубийство покажется единственным выходом.Хороший пример -британский медиалорд Роберт Максвелл, урожденный Людвик Хох. Его капитал происходит из легендарного офшорного источника денег - анонимных лихтенштейнских благотворительных фондов. Несколько лет назад босс СМИ якобы упал со своей яхты и утонул.Быструю карьеру магната обеспечил себе и шеф "Вайэком", владелец контрольного пакета акций "Сумнер Редстоун", урожденный Меррей Ротстайн. Во время Второй мировой войны, работая еще в военной разведке, американец, бывший адвокат, бешено скупал акции СМИ. Сегодня он, наряду с Рупертом Мердоком, один из заправил в медийном бизнесе.Очень интересен и австралиец, магнат спутникового телевиденияРуперт Мердок со своей зарегистрированной на бирже Сиднея "Ньюс Корп". Что явилось причиной его успеха? Быстрый и крутой подъем оказался возможен благодаря финансовой помощи Гарри Оппенгеймера* (картель по добыче и продаже золота и бриллиантов "Англо-Америкен" и "ДеБирс"), Эдгара Бронфмана-старшего** (медиаконцерн "Сигрэм", председатель Еврейского всемирного конгресса), Арманда Хаммера и Ротшильдов, или же только благодаря созданию программ на самом низком культурном уровне (ср. "Бильд") ("Бильд" - самая массовая газета в Германии, яркий представитель немецкоязычной желтой прессы. - Прим. пер.)? "Ротшильд Инвестмент Траст" абсолютно официально является крупным акционером "Ньюс Корп." с собственным директором в правлении медиагиганта.А как мыслит король СМИ Руперт Мердок? Независимо и политически нейтрально, как журналиста обязывают факты? Само собой разумеется, он охотно говорит о "my faith and News Corporation's faith in the integrity and worthiness of the Zionist undertaking" ("Целуя ботинки Медиа-Голиафа", Норманн Соломон, "Криэйторс Синдикат"). Перевод: "Моей вере и вере "Ньюс Корпорэйшнз" ("его" фирмы) в честность и достоинство сионистского проекта".Официальными учредителями и главными акционерами частного федерального банка США (Федеральные резервы, FED) в 1913 году были "Банк Ротшильда" (Лондон, Париж), "Банк братьев Лазар" (Париж), "Сейф-банк Израэля Мозеса" (Италия), "Банк Варбурга" (Амстердам, Гамбург), "Банк Леманна" (Нью-Йорк), "Банк Кун, Лёб и Ко" (Нью-Йорк), "Чейз Манхэттен Банк Рокфеллера" (Нью-Йорк) и "Банк Голдмана Сакса" (Нью-Йорк). Смотри "Руки прочь от этой книги" (Ян ван Гельсинг) и "Банки, хлеб и бомбы II" (Штефан Эрдманн), обе книги от www.amadeus-verlag.com. Другие источники называют только семерых банкиров: Ротшильда, Варбурга, Рокфеллера, Шиффа, Харримана, Вандерлипа и Моргана. Не смущайтесь. Банки сливаются, меняют название, но семьи - истинные владельцы, находящиеся за кулисами - не меняются. Якоб Шифф был, например, президентом "Кун, Лёб и Ко", а с 1916 года - и председателем "Сионистского движения в России".Дж. П. Морган и Рокфеллер были и остаются доверенными лицами Ротшильда в США. Их потомки и сегодня тайно и отстраненно, скрываясь под именами крупных банков США "Чейз Манхэттен" и "Ситибанк", контролируют 52,86% всех акций Нью-Йоркского банка федеральных резервов FED, которому подчиняются остальные 11 филиалов FED в США (1997, Эрик Самуэльсон), сегодня банки более известны как "Джи-Пи Морган Чейз" и "Сити Групп".ВАЖНО: Федеральный банк США принадлежит вовсе не государству США или правительству, а нескольким частным собственникам, вышеназванным банкам и стоящим за ними лицам. Не иначе и в других странах: например, немецкий Федеральный банк и банк Англии находятся в частном владении. Если у государства есть долги, оно должно не самому себе, а, как правило, своему Федеральному / Центральному банку и, вместе с тем, собственникам центрального банка. И именно им платятся проценты с налоговых миллиардов каждый год. Того, кто хотел бы заняться выяснением этих обстоятельств (бизнес-школы и университеты либо ничего не знают, либо хранят тайну), нередко без промедления ставят в антисемитский угол. Американские президенты, которые пытались освободить США от контроля банкиров (например, Кеннеди), или хотели отказаться от их кредитов (например, Линкольн), были убиты "сумасшедшими". Оба президента хотели ввести государственную беспроцентную денежную систему с обеспечением обращения и освободиться тем самым от процентной кабалы частных банков. При Линкольне эти деньги назывались "Грин Бакс", при Кеннеди также были напечатаны несколько миллиардов свободных долларов. Первым официальным актом следующего президента Линдона Б. Джонсона стало немедленное изъятие этих денег с рынка.Зять Бронфмана, барон Ален де Гунцбург - выходец из еврейской банкирской семьи, которую в 1830 году облагородили Габсбурги. Барон де Гунцбург находится в родственных связях с парижскими Ротшильдами, а также связан с ними общими гешефтами через "свои" банки - "Банк Луи Дрейфуса" и "Банкирский дом Вормса". С 1976 года де Гунцбург был членом правления в бронфмановском "Сигрэме".Почти неизвестно, но классика - влияние его, а теперь и его сына, Эдгара Бронфмана-младшего, вместе (или от имени тестя Лёба и его банковских и инвестиционных партнеров) на СМИ через фирмы "Сигрэм" и "Кемп Инвестментс" (кроме всего прочего, "Эм-Джи-Эм", "Парамаунт Пикчерз"). С 70-х начались инвестиции и в сырьевые ресурсы (прежде всего нефть).Изначально Бронфманы сделали состояние на пойле - "виски" двухдневной выдержки (нормально - 6-12 лет), которое контрабандой ввозилось из Канады в США во времена сухого закона под названиями "Джонни Уокер" и "Гленливет". Если верить Петеру К. Ньюману, ежемесячно таким образом зарабатывались $500 000. Неплохо для 1920-1930-х гг. Эти прибыли, естественно, стали возможны только благодаря сухому закону, который стоил жизни 34 000 американцам, отравившимся недоброкачественным контрабандным товаром, а также 2500 гангстерам, перестрелявшим друг друга в борьбе за монополию сбыта, плюс 500 полицейским, застреленным преступниками. Тот, кто вдруг обнаружит здесь параллели с "борьбой с наркотиками" или, не дай Бог, предположит, что такие запретительные законы принимаются политиками-марионетками в тумане истерии СМИ, чтобы гарантировать монопольно высокие прибыли нескольким инсайдерам - нехороший человек.Канадская фирма по производству спиртных напитков "Сигрэм", контролируемая Бронфманом, при помощи выгодного финансирования тайно скупала акции СМИ до тех пор, пока "безобидная" лавка по продаже горячительного не превратилась во второй по величине медиаконцерн мира (наибольшим влиянием во всем мире пользуется медиагруппа "АОЛ Тайм Уорнер" ("Си-Эн-Эн", "Уорнер Бразерс", "Тайм Мэгэзин" и т. д.), крупным акционером которой был и "Сигрэм"). За тайные вложения капитала отвечала бронфмановская "Кэмп Инвестментс".В это же самое время от имени фирмы с жизнерадостным, приятственно-свежим названием "Вивенди Юниверсал" неистово скупал по всему миру акции СМИ. (Кроме всего прочего, "Юниверсал" - французский утилизатор сточных вод.) Менеджера Жана Мари Мессира СМИ чествовали как гения предпринимательства. Курс акций "Вивенди" взлетел до небес. Высокая стоимость собственных акций позволила "Вивенди Юниверсал" скупить бóльшую часть акций "Сигрэм" и вытеснить Бронфманов с огромным барышом от продажи акций по биржевому курсу из топа 2000.С тех пор, как известно, дела "Вивенди Юниверсал (Сигрэм)" резко пошатнулись. Падающие курсы акций (и внезапное сокращение кредитов банками?) вызвали кризис ликвидности. В 2002 году, после того как курс акций упал более чем на 80%, Жана Мари Мессира уволили, а крупным акционером Бронфманом с помощью нескольких банков был организован "пакет спасения", который, кроме всего прочего, предусматривал продажу акций "Вивенди Юниверсал (Сигрэм)" незадорого американским медиаконцернам. В довершение всего "Вивенди Юниверсал (Сигрэм)" (или ее наследник) была обязана зарегистрироваться на Нью-Йоркской бирже, чтобы американские инвесторы СМИ смогли войти в нее напрямую.Бронфман сумел вновь по дешевке обеспечить себе и своим друзьям контроль над "Вивенди Юниверсал (Сигрэм)". Сюда, естественно, входили и дорого проданные им двумя годами ранее пакеты "Сигрэм". Итог через 2 года: как и ранее, контроль над старыми СМИ, принадлежавшими "Сигрэм", но теперь и контроль над СМИ, принадлежавшими "Вивенди Юниверсал" плюс огромная прибыль. Неплохо для пары телефонных разговоров и поездок в Париж.В 2003 году бóльшая часть "Вивенди Юниверсал (Сигрэм)" была скуплена американским медиагигантом "Эн-Би-Си", который сейчас называется "Эн-Би-Си Юниверсал" и, по официальным данным, на 80% контролируется транснациональной корпорацией "Дженерал Электрик". Однако для Всемирного еврейского конгресса это было не слишком болезненно, поскольку со времени продажи в 1996 году в США медиахолдинга Теда Тернера ("Си-Эн-Эн" и т. д.) компании "Тайм Уорнер" больше не существует ни одной влиятельной группы СМИ, которая бы не контролировалась марионетками или членами Всемирного конгресса. Тот, кто не желает этому верить, должен сам разыскать хотя бы одну и назвать ее мне.Хотя Бронфманов, похоже, интересуют не только СМИ и алкоголь: в 1981 году они скупили по всему миру бóльшую часть Церкви Саентологии. Причина: Рон Хаббард достиг при помощи описанной в его бестселлере "Dianetics" техники для освобождения от психологических блокад и манипуляций больших успехов. Успехов, которые могли бы в перспективе стать угрозой обороту алкоголя и влиянию СМИ? Или это был страх перед знанием посвященного, которое открывалось при помощи техники возвращения? Во всяком случае, после покупки Бронфманом с этим было покончено. Хаббард потерял контроль, многочисленные члены вышли из церкви, СМИ объявили саентологию "опасной сектой", и она перестала представлять из себя опасность. Оболванивание масс манипуляциями СМИ и регулярное одурманивание алкоголем могло безмятежно продолжаться, как и ранее.А что пришлось выслушать от Эдгара Бронфмана Лотару де Мезьеру (немецкий политик, последний председатель Совета министров ГДР. - Прим. пер.), когда он в сентябре 1990 года посетил Нью-Йорк? Цитата: "Для немцев настанет ужасный конец, если будущие поколения прекратят платежи Израилю... Тогда немецкий народ исчезнет с лица земли" (Иоахим Кольн, "Наследство Моисея", стр. 3; Харольд Сесил Робинсон, "Проклятый антисемитизм", стр. 119). Теперь даже самый последний глупец знает, каким целям и намерениям служат Бронфманы и их "независимые" средства массовой информации...Еще один интересный игрок в медийном гешефте - Хаим Сабан, являющийся гражданином Израиля и США, который помог Руперту Мердоку стать влиятельным человеком СМИ ("Фокс", "Ньюс Корп." и т. д.), но сам всегда держался в тени. В Германии его имя попало в заголовки первых полос крупных газет в феврале 2003 года, когда он решил приобрести находящийся на грани банкротства медиаконцерн "Кирх". Кроме всего прочего, он купил "Про Зибен" и "Сат 1" - самые большие частные телеканалы Германии. В некоторых немецких газетах о Сабане, как ни странно, написали, что он - "египтянин". "Шпигель" (2003 год, № 7) описал его как безобидного миллионера, который начинал бас-гитаристом. Ну-ну, если и это не гарантирует симпатий... Ну как можно такого не любить?Сабан не очень-то любит немцев. В "Нью-Йорк Таймс" он описал Германию как слишком "критично относящуюся к Израилю" ("Шпигель Онлайн" 06.08.05). Однако это не помешало ему снимать здесь сливки. Летом 2005 года он втридорога продал свои акции "Про Зибен", "Сат 1", "Кабель 1" и "Н24" медиаконцерну "Спрингер". В результате этой сделки люди, стоящие за ней, получили не только быстрые $3 млрд прибыли, но и уверенность, что новый собственник, "самая большая газетная и телевизионная империя Германии", будет не только слегка привскакивать по их желанию, а по-настоящему прыгать ("Springer" по-немецки "прыгун". - прим. пер.). Сабан, разумеется, вошел в "Спрингер" как крупный акционер.Не следует упускать из виду и итальянца Сильвио Берлускони, мелкое телосложение которого, по моему мнению, стало причиной огромного комплекса неполноценности и гигантской неукротимой жажды власти. Сладострастие власти и тщеславие - вот предпосылки для идеальной марионетки... Его дружба с Мердоком, американским правительством и Израилем (слепая поддержка иракской войны: по его мнению, Израиль должен быть членом ЕС, а ЕС больше не должно вести переговоры с Организацией освобождения Палестины) открывает все двери. Между прочим, малыш с якобы заработанным собственным трудом миллиардным состоянием фактически контролирует 90% итальянских СМИ и, таким образом, итальянские массы. Откуда на самом деле появились деньги для взятия под свой контроль и управление средств массовой информации? Из того же самого источника, как и у Руперта Мердока? Наверняка не благодаря часто приписываемым ему контактам с мафией... Влияние на СМИ гарантировало ему выбор главой правительства в Италии, хотя многие образованные итальянцы скорее испытывают неловкость, глядя на него, а многочисленные обвинения из-за самых различных экономических правонарушений не очень способствуют укреплению доверия. Однако до сих пор его ни разу не осудили.Гораздо важнее, чем имена всевозможных партнеров или марионеток, которых при необходимости можно в любое время заменить, сам принцип. Вышеупомянутые медиамагнаты, которые, по-видимому, всегда располагают миллиардными ликвидными средствами, вопрос о происхождении которых едва ли будет поднят (в СМИ!), и поэтому оно, скорее всего, останется неизвестным, покупают якобы от собственного имени медиахолдинги и акции СМИ. Также бросается в глаза, что все медиамагнаты в высшей степени дружественно относятся к Израилю. Всех по-настоящему успешных людей объединяет именно это, не так ли?Относительно независимые медиаконцерны, которые не хотели бы продаваться, можно сознательно довести ограничительной политикой финансирования до кризиса ликвидности, чтобы спровоцировать их на выставление акций на бирже (и тем самым дать возможность влияния каждому, кто эти акции купит), продажу (подставным лицам дирижеров) или банкротство (а вместе с тем - потерю влияния или взятие под свой контроль и управление за недорого имущества несостоятельного должника).В конце концов, денежный кран всегда можно быстро закрутить. На практике заинтересованное лицо попросту скупает у банков-кредиторов медиаконцерна долговые обязательства (или 50,1% акций банка-кредитора) и в короткий срок предъявляет их к оплате. Если денег для оплаты нет, медиаконцерн находится на грани банкротства. Зачастую единственной альтернативой в таком случае становится превращение долговых обязательств в паи в предприятии, т. е. заинтересованное лицо становится компаньоном с правом голоса или контроля. Такой медиаконцерн, независимый внешне, тайно становится частью монополии по содержанию.Без благоприятного финансирования сегодня не удастся никакая миллиардная экспансия. Откуда поступают эти финансы? Какие еще условия, кроме погашения кредита и процентов, должны быть выполнены (ведь погашение и проценты можно обеспечить и при помощи надежных государственных ссуд)? Кто всегда имел деньги и давал их в долг под большие проценты? Где сконцентрирован сегодня самый большой капитал? Что здесь общего с Уолл-стрит и американской политикой?А тем временем права собственности в 10 000 маленьких, некогда независимых радиостанций США распределены среди немногих крупных медиагрупп.Стратегия наиболее успешных (а потому и наиболее влиятельных) кинематографистов - сосредоточиться на одной медиакомпании и финансово ее контролировать. Никто не станет рисковать собственными миллионами, производя кинопродукцию, если он не сможет без риска для себя занять капитал. Актуальный пример - студия "Дримворкс", кооперация Джеффри Катценберга (друга Айснера, бывшего шефа Диснея) с Дэвидом Геффеном и Стивеном Спилбергом.Собственно, достаточно полностью держать под контролем только распространение фильмов в международном масштабе и допускать в кино, на телевидение и в видеотеки только фильмы, манипулирующие в желаемом направлении. Но почему бы сразу не контролировать и все производство кинопродукции в целом?Вывод: тот, у кого есть деньги, может вполне законным и демократически корректным путем купить средства массовой информации, а, тем самым, манипуляционные возможности и, в итоге, власть, и тайно сосредоточить их в руках маленькой влиятельной группировки.Контроль через систему участия в фирмахКак уже указывалось ранее, никто не может быть абсолютно уверен, что знает, кто контролирует американские акционерные общества и медагиганты с миллиардными капиталами (а также банки, индустрию, сырье, фармацевтику, питание, вооружение и т. д.) на самом деле, хотя четкую тенденцию невозможно игнорировать. Само собой, есть имя (например, Мердок, Редстоун, Бронфман, Сабан, Гольдензон ("Эй-Би-Си"), Пейли ("Си-Би-Эс"), Сарнов ("Эн-Би-Си"), Сульцбергер ("Нью-Йорк Таймс"), Мейер-Грэхем ("Вашингтон Пост", "Ньюсуик") и т. д.), но никто может быть уверен, имеет ли зарегистрированный, официальный собственник право слова на деле, или же он - просто умная марионетка, которая либо разделяет взгляды истинных хозяев, либо преданно проводит их в жизнь.Сегодня большинство пакетов акций СМИ распределено между транснациональными медиаконцернами и холдингами, которые очень сложно контролировать юридически. Кроме того, в США информацию о доле собственности в зарегистрированных на бирже фирмах нельзя раскрывать до тех пор, пока в руках одного лица не сосредоточатся более 5% акций. Что означает (по крайней мере, теоретически), что всего 11 человек (например, семья) могут вместе мажоритарно скрыто контролировать 11 акционерных обществ (например, медиаконцерны), если каждый из этих людей ограничится пакетом в максимум 4,99% акций в каждом АО. Другими словами, каждый из них легально владеет пакетами 4,99% акций в 11 медиаконцернах. Эти пакеты в зависимости от потребности или остаются в "семье" и/или могут легально и анонимно контролироваться маленькой группировкой.(Далее автор приводит другие схемы для получения тайного контроля через банки, благотворительные и инвестиционные фонды, офшорные компании и т. п. - Прим. пер.)Вывод: концентрация и контроль над СМИ маленькой группировки возможны, и это можно замаскировать без особых издержек.Кому принадлежат крупные информационные агентства?РейтерАгентство Рейтер было основано в 1851 году Самуэлем Леви Йозефом, третьим сыном раввина из Касселя. Позже Йозефа крестили, он взял имя Пауль Юлий Рейтер (или Ройтерс, так звучат по-немецки фамилия и название агентства. - Прим. пер.) и сочетался браком с дочерью банкира. Сначала он пробовал себя при финансовой поддержке своего тестя как книготорговец, издатель и журналист, к сожалению, безуспешно; и тогда в 1848 году он внезапно уехал в Париж и начал там работать переводчиком в телеграфном агентстве Шарля Хавара. Попытка самостоятельной работы снова провалилась, и он вернулся в Германию, в Аахен. Рейтер организует доставку информации о биржевых курсах из Брюсселя в Аахен, используя почтовых голубей. Когда бывший служащий агентства Хавар Бернхард Вольфф при финансовой поддержке Вернера Сименса открывает телеграфное агентство в Берлине, Рейтер по совету Сименса открывает свое агентство в Лондоне. Он начинает передавать телеграфом курсы акций в Париж и Берлин.Официальные крупные акционеры Рейтер, по его собственным данным:- "Рейтерс Фаундерс Шэйр Компани" (30% с правом вето) (право вето должно предотвращать "недружественное" поглощение. Другими словами, могут быть приняты только дружески настроенные к наследникам Пауля Юлия Рейтера крупные акционеры)- "Файделити Инвестментс" (9%)- "Лигал энд Дженерал Инвестмент" (4%)- "Барклайс Банк" (3,75%)- "Мерилл Линч" (3,48%)По структуре всех 28 100 акционеров Рейтер можно судить о возможностях сокрытия участия:- инвестиционные фонды, тресты, благотворительные фонды (34%)- пенсионные фонды (частные фонды пенсионного страхования) (24%)- ADS (американские депозитарные расписки банка Дж.П. Моргана в Нью-Йорке) (9%)- банки (не Великобритании) (4%)- страховые компании (4%)- частные акционеры (2%)- некоммерческие общества (1%)- правительства (1%)64% акционеров из Великобритании, 19% из США, 11% из Европы (не Великобритании) и 5% не идентифицированы. Акции "Рейтерс Фаундерс Шэйрс", а также акции, принадлежащие служащим Рейтер, не учитывались. Associated Press"Ассошиэйтед Пресс" официально зарегистрировано как некоммерческое общество, которое объединяет 1500 американских ежедневных газет. Тот, кто мажоритарно контролирует ежедневные газеты, контролирует вместе с тем и АП.В США едва ли еще существуют независимые ежедневные газеты, и часто в большом городе есть только одна городская газета. Если в виде исключения в городе есть две ежедневные газеты, то они зачастую принадлежат одному и тому же издательству: например, "Бильд" (газета для рабочих) и "Вельт" (газета для служащих) принадлежат издательству Шпрингера. Большинство американских ежедневных газет (а через них - и АП) контролируется крупными издательствами медиагигантов.АП сообщает 1700 американских газет и 5000 радиостанций и телецентров в США, что произошло в мире. В мировом масштабе о том, что должны знать их читатели и зрители, АП информирует 8500 газет, радиостанций и телекомпаний в 121 стране. "Нью-Йорк Таймс Сервис" (NYT) Рассылает сообщения, статьи и фотографии в 506 других газет. Информационное агентство принадлежит "Нью-Йорк Таймс", газете, которую инсайдеры считают рупором "дирижеров", а посему информация агентства может (и должна) безо всякого риска для себя и без лишних раздумий повторяться всеми "приличными" журналистами, и это способствует карьере._______________________________________________________________________________Примечания:* Кроме того, сторонники теории заговора знают: Оппенгеймер обучался банковскому делу во Франкфуртском банкирском доме у старого Ротшильда и, вплоть до основания им собственного банка, работал там в качестве партнера. Оба банкирских дома и сегодня имеют дружеские и деловые связи.** Многие знают Эдгара Бронфмана как председателя Еврейского всемирного конгресса. Многим также известны и его тесные коммерческие и семейные связи с Ротшильдами: первая жена Бронфмана Анн Маргрет Лёб - дочь старшего компаньона одного из самых влиятельных банков Уолл-стрит (ранее известного как "Лёб, Роадс и Ко") немецко-еврейского происхождения. Под названием "Кухх, Лёб и Ко" Лёбы вместе с Ротшильдами отвечали за основание Центрального банка федеральной резервной системы США. Все дети и наследники старого Бронфмана (например, его сын - сегодняшний магнат СМИ Эдгар-младший) происходят из этого брака, который распался в 1973 году.(http://www.km.ru/node/101...)

Выбор редакции
24 февраля, 20:31

Bundesbank official: Don't count on ‘economic sanity’ in Brexit talks

Equivalence agreement is “not a reliable substitute” for passporting, but the UK should have an interim regulatory arrangement, Bundesbank’s Andreas Dombret says

Выбор редакции
24 февраля, 20:31

Bundesbank official: Don't count on ‘economic sanity’ in Brexit talks

Central Banking Equivalence agreement “not a reliable substitute” for passporting Equivalence agreement is “not a reliable substitute” for passporting, but the UK should have an interim regulatory arrangement, Bundesbank’s Andreas Dombret says

15 августа 2013, 15:20

США отказываются возвращать немецкий золотой запас

Мир теряет веру в доллар как в самую надежную валюту. Волна недоверия поднялась после того, как Немецкий федеральный банк потребовал репатриации огромного количества золота, хранящегося в Федеральной резервной системе США. Некоторые обеспокоены тем, что национальные вклады других стран не будут в безопасности в США. Да и находятся ли они там вообще? Подробности в репортаже корреспондента RT Гаяне Чичакян. Подписывайтесь на RT Russian - http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=rtrussian RT на русском - http://russian.rt.com/ Vkontakte - http://vk.com/rt_russian Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/RTRussian Twitter - http://twitter.com/RT_russian Livejournal - http://rt-russian.livejournal.com/

06 февраля 2013, 00:00

Утечка информации из МВФ: «золотое» мошенничество центральных банков

О GATA и «золотом картеле» Еще в конце ХХ века наиболее въедливые эксперты стали подозревать, что на рынке золота происходит что-то неладное. А именно: даже если жёлтый металл не дешевеет, то цены на него всё равно отстают по темпам роста от динамики цен на многие другие товары мирового рынка. Золото дешевело также на фоне индексов фондовых рынков, цен на недвижимость и т.п. Никаких крупных месторождений золота в это время не было открыто, золотые метеориты на Землю не падали. Заниженные цены на желтый металл больно били по компаниям золотодобывающей промышленности. Представители нескольких компаний этой отрасли решили разобраться в загадке, для чего и создали организацию под названием GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action). В буквальном переводе - «Действие против Золотого Треста». Как следует из названия, учредители GATA подозревали, что на мировом рынке золота действует группа злоумышленников, объединенных в трест, который манипулирует ценами на золото в сторону их занижения. В своих публикациях GATA чаще использовала термин «золотой картель». Постепенно удалось вычислить основных участников этого картеля. Среди них - Казначейство США, Федеральный резервный банк Нью-Йорка (главный из 12 федеральных банков, составляющих ФРС США), Банк Англии, ряд крупнейших коммерческих и инвестиционных банков США и Западной Европы (здесь особо выделяется «Голдман Сакс» - инвестиционный банк с Уолл-стрит). Это – ядро картеля. Время от времени в поле зрения GATA попадали и другие организации, участвовавшие в операциях картеля. В том числе центральные банки некоторых стран.  1990-е годы были периодом наибольшей активности США на мировых рынках активов. Проще говоря, американцы организовывали приватизации государственных предприятий по всему миру (в том числе в России), а для таких операций нужен был сильный доллар. Финансовые аналитики и спекулянты прекрасно знают простое правило: чем ниже цена на золото, тем крепче доллар. Самый простой и дешевый способ укрепить доллар – «прижать» цену на «желтый металл», который явно и неявно выступает конкурентом этой резервной валюты. Однако чтобы «прижать» цену, надо обеспечить повышенное предложение этого металла на мировом рынке. У тех, кто хотел сыграть на «понижение» золота, взоры обратились к несметным запасам золота, сосредоточенным в подвалах казначейств и центральных банков. Эти запасы лежали там без движения с тех пор, как в 1970-е гг. рухнула Бреттон-Вудская валютно-финансовая система. В новой Ямайской валютно-финансовой системе золото перестало быть деньгами, оно было объявлено одним из биржевых товаров – таким как нефть, пшеница или бананы. Версия о золотых манипуляциях центральных банков Как можно использовать это золото для манипуляций ценами?  Первое и главное условие сводится к тому, чтобы полностью засекретить официальные запасы желтого металла и все операции денежных властей с ними. Еще более повысить независимый статус центральных банков, для того чтобы «народные избранники», органы финансового контроля и прочие любопытствующие элементы не совали свои носы в дела этих институтов. Не допускать государственных аудиторов до «золотых закромов». В США, например, Главное контрольное управление (Счётная палата Конгресса) последний раз посещало главное хранилище официального золотого запаса США Форт Ноксболее 60 лет назад.  Далее под завесой секретности можно начинать операции с золотом. Однако не продавать его, а передавать разным частным структурам «на время», оформляя эти операции как кредиты или лизинг желтого металла. А вместо золотых слитков оставлять в хранилищах бумажки, которые являются с бухгалтерско-юридической точки зрения «требованиями», «расписками», «сертификатами» и т.п. То есть золото на балансе центрального банка сохраняется, только оно имеет не металлическую, а виртуально-бумажную (или даже электронную) форму. А «народу» это знать не обязательно. Если в эти «золотые аферы» втянуть десяток-другой центральных банков, то каждый год на рынок можно выкидывать не одну сотню тонн драгоценного металла и сбивать на него цену.  Эксперты (в том числе эксперты GATA) находили многочисленные подтверждения тому, что все это не вымысел, а результат преступного сговора центральных банков с частными банкирами и спекулянтами. И тут сразу возникают вопросы: кому центральные банки передавали золото? Было ли это золото возвращено назад в сейфы центральных банков? Известны ли эти махинации законодателям? Сколько на сегодняшний день реально осталось физического золота в хранилищах центральных банков (и государственных казначейств)? Отметим, что отдельные попытки разобраться в том, что представляют собой официальные золотые запасы, насколько официальная статистика золота отражает истинное положение дел, кто и как управляет официальным золотым запасом, предпринимались парламентариями, политиками, общественными активистами в разных странах. Например, в США такие попытки регулярно предпринимал член Конгресса США Рон Пол. Регулярные запросы в разные инстанции делала также GATA.  Денежные власти предпочитали отмалчиваться. Или же ответы были крайне лаконичными и сводились к тому, что «золотой запас страны находится в неприкосновенности». Такую же позицию занимали на протяжении последних 15 лет (с тех пор, как начались разговоры о «золотом картеле») и международные финансовые организации: Банк международных расчетов (который, кстати, активно занимается операциями с желтым металлом и был заподозрен в участии в «золотом картеле»), Всемирный банк, Международный валютный фонд (1).  Утечка информации из МВФ И вот последняя новость в этой области. Речь идет о материале, размещенном на сайте GATA в декабре 2012 года (2). Это полученное одним из экспертов GATA секретное исследование Международного валютного фонда 13-летней давности. Оно касается мирового рынка золота и роли центральных банков в операциях на этом рынке в 1999 году. Поскольку оно секретное, то его автор позволяет себе писать полную правду об операциях центральных банков.  «Информация о рынке золота неоднородна», – говорится в исследовании. «Для транзакций характерна высокая степень секретности. Наряду с относительно небольшим количеством открытых торгов на биржах, продажи золота представляют собой приватные внебиржевые сделки, о таких операциях сообщается скупо. … Официальные данные о ссудах в золоте практически отсутствуют». Вот ключевые факты и цифры из этого материала МВФ. В 1999 годуболее 80 центральных банков ссудили 15 процентов официальных золотых запасов рынку (имеется в виду величина непогашенных обязательств по золотым кредитам). В числе центральных банков, предоставлявших ссуды в золоте, были Бундесбанк Германии, Швейцарский национальный банк, Банк Англии, Резервный банк Австралии и центральные банки Австрии, Португалии и Венесуэлы. В исследовании подтверждается, что центральные банки играли на рынке золота на «понижение»: «…высокая степень мобилизации резервов центробанка через кредитные операции в золоте оказала понижающее влияние на наличную цену золота, поскольку перекредитуемое золото обычно связано с продажами золота на наличном рынке». Далее в исследовании МВФ говорится, что «кредитование в золоте заставило центробанки проявлять активность на рынке производных финансовых инструментов золота, где участвуют банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами и производители золота, продавая золото через форвардные сделки и опционы. В свою очередь, банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами приложили все усилия для защиты и укрепления долгосрочных отношений с центральными банками». Вот еще выдержка из документа МВФ: «Доля промышленно развитых стран на всём рынке официального кредитования в золоте выросла с 33 процентов в конце 1995 года до 46 процентов к концу 1998 года, поскольку некоторые центральные банки промышленных стран повысили уровень кредитования; в то же время на рынке появились новые кредиторы, в частности Бундесбанк и Швейцарский национальный банк». А вот комментарий эксперта GATA, разместившего данный материал:«При столь значительном количестве центральных банков, секретно предоставляющих ссуды в золоте тем финансовым организациям, чей основной талант, как можно было видеть в последнее время, состоит в рыночных махинациях, кто станет отрицать, кроме обычных агентов дезинформации, что рынком золота манипулируют именно для того, чтобы не позволить всему миру пользоваться свободными рынками?» 2013 год: ждём новых «золотых» скандалов и «золотых» сенсаций Раскрытия страшной тайны золота ждут уже много лет. Ещё в 2004 году Лондонский банк Ротшильдов заявил о своем выходе из «золотого фиксинга» - процедуры ежедневного определения в узком кругу цены на жёлтый металл в лондонском Сити. Тем самым Ротшильды заявили миру, что они выходят из золотого бизнеса, которым занимались на протяжении двух столетий. Однако это – всего лишь эффектный жест. Из золотого бизнеса они не ушли, а продолжили заниматься им через структуры с другими вывесками. Чувствуя угрозу надвигающегося скандала с разоблачениями «золотого картеля», эти олигархические круги решили своевременно отойти от эпицентра возможного взрыва…  Возбуждение общественности и политиков по поводу официальных запасов золота резко обострилось в 2012 году. Выяснилось, что на мировом рынке активно идет торговля фальшивым золотом в виде вольфрамовых позолоченных слитков (хотя специалистам об этом стало известно еще в 2004 году, трубить об этом мошенничестве мировые СМИ начали только в 2012 году). Возникли подозрения, что в подвалах центральных банков и казначейств находятся груды вольфрама. Рон Пол добился проведения выборочной проверки брусков металла в подвалах Форт-Нокс и Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка. Германия потребовала от США вернуть золото из своего официального запаса (Бундесбанк), которое хранилось в подвалах ФРБ Нью-Йорка, но встретила глухое сопротивление со стороны казначейства и ФРС США. Кончилось это тем, что председатель Федерального резерва Бен Бернанке заявил, что недавний ураган Сэнди… «уничтожил» немецкое золото. Ничего лучшего он придумать не смог. Все это лишь подкрепило мнение тех, кто давно обвиняет ФРС и другие центральные банки в мошенничестве с золотом.  Думаю, что в 2013 г. тема золота центральных банков станет еще более горячей. Например, все с нетерпением ждут обнародования результатов выборочной физической проверки слитков золота из закромов Казначейства США. Власти обещали сообщить об этом в начале 2013 года. От Германии все напряженно ожидают реакции на заявление Бернанке о таинственном исчезновении немецкого золота.  Появились вопросы и к Банку международных расчетов (БМР), активно практикующему коммерческие операции с желтым металлом - и собственным, и тем, который центральные банки предоставляют БМР в виде депозитов или кредитов. Отчётность БМР об этих операциях крайне лаконична и не даёт представления о деталях сделок, их контрагентах и конечных бенефициарах.  Международный валютный фонд будет продолжать настойчиво требовать от Китая раскрытия истинной информации об официальном золотом запасе. В 2009 г. Народный банк Китая (НБК) сообщил, что его золотые запасы увеличились сразу на 76% и составили 1054 тонны. С тех пор официальные цифры золотого запаса НБК не менялись. Мало кто верит в то, что эти цифры отражают реальное положение дел. Считается, что денежные власти Китая сильно занижают цифры, тайно переводя часть своих несметных валютных резервов в желтый металл. В Конгрессе США ожидается окончательное решение вопроса о том, будет ли ФРС подвергнута серьезному аудиту - впервые за век ее существования. Если такой аудит всё-таки состоится, то полной проверке должны подвергнуться все операции Федерального резерва с золотом. Почти все серьезные эксперты ждут от этой проверки сенсационных разоблачений.  (1) Подробнее о манипуляциях «золотого картеля» см.: В.Ю. Катасонов. Золото в экономике и политике России. – М.: Анкил, 2009, с. 57-63.  (2) «IMF study in 1999 found 80 central banks lending 15% of official gold reserves». December 9, 2012 (http://www.gata.org/files/IMFGoldLendingFullStudy1999.pdf)