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24 июля, 19:58

Bundesbank says Germany saved €240bn from low interest rates

Research counters view that ECB monetary policy has robbed Germans of their savings

Выбор редакции
24 июля, 16:29

Turkey Is Buying Gold Like There’s No Tomorrow

In the past few weeks and months we have seen some reports wherein it became clear Germany is actually selling some of its gold on a monthly basis. That’s an interesting phenomenon as it’s weird to see a country secretly repatriating its gold which it starts to sell shortly afterwards. There’s no doubt it must have been easier to start selling when it was still located in the foreign vaults, and just transfer the cash proceeds back to Berlin or the Bundesbank. But okay, the sales are pretty marginal as Germany ‘dumped’ just 120,000 ounces of gold  in the past three months. A move from 108.6 million ounces to 108.48 million ounces isn’t the end of the world, and definitely doesn’t indicate the start of a trend. But what did catch our attention (besides obviously the ‘Russian Alliance’ –consisting of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan – buying more gold), was the behaviour of Turkey. Not only are the Turks buying more gold at a substantially more aggressive pace than the Russians adding 950,000 ounces of the yellow metal in just three months, the purchases are also much more meaningful when you look at the bigger picture. In just three months, Turkey has increased its gold reserves by in excess of 7% and that’s a really substantial step for a relatively small country. What makes it even more interesting is the fact Turkey was a huge net seller in 2016 as it sold in excess of 3 million ounces of gold between June and December before increasing its position again (at a rather aggressive pace). There’s no real explanation for this, and we would be surprised if the Turkish Central Bank was trying to ‘time the market’. As this wouldn’t explain the substantial sales when the gold price lost its momentum in the second half of last year… As you can see on the previous image, the average weight of the precious metal in the total basket of foreign reserves has also been increasing from January until May (we are still waiting for Turkey to release its June update) has continued to increase in the first few months of the year. The Turkish timing might be pretty good, as gold has now once again bounced off its lows in the lower-1200 region, and has now moved above its 200 day and 50 day moving average, and this usually is a sign of strength. Source: stockcharts.com It now does look like the gold price is ready to attack the $1290-1300 levels again which might be a surprise considering the summer months are traditionally pretty weak for the precious metal. Are we gearing up for a few busy weeks and months? Time will tell! >>> Read our Guide to Gold right now!

24 июля, 14:47

Бундесбанк: Программа ЕЦБ по покупке корпоративных облигаций чревата рисками

В понедельник центральный банк Германии выпустил заявление, в котором предупредил о рисках, связанных с решением ЕЦБ покупать корпоративные облигации. К таким рискам он отнес вероятность убытков, а также то, что предпочтение может быть отдано облигациям крупных компаний, сообщает Dow Jones.

24 июля, 08:57

События сегодняшнего дня:

В 10:00 GMT Бундесбанк опубликует свой ежемесячный отчет В 15:30 GMT США проведет аукцион по продаже 3-х и 6-ти месячных облигаций В 23:50 GMT Банк Японии опубликует протокол совещания по вопросам кредитно-денежной политики Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

17 июля, 10:30

95% Of Europeans Reject EU Efforts To "De-Cash" Their Lives

Authored by Don Quijones via WolfStreet.com, But the IMF has suggestions on how to win the War on Cash... In January 2017 the European Commission announced it was exploring the option of imposing upper limits on cash payments, with a view to implementing cross-regional measures as soon as 2018. To give the proposal a veneer of respectability and accountability the Commission launched a public consultation on the issue. Now, the answers are in, but they are not what the Commission was expecting. A staggering 95% of the respondents said they were opposed to a cash ceiling at EU level. Even more emphatic was the answer to the following question: “How would the introduction of restrictions on payments in cash at EU level benefit you, or your business or your organisation (multiple replies are possible)?” In the curious absence of an explicit “not at all” option, 99.18% chose to respond with “no answer.” In other words, less than 1% of the more than 30,000 people consulted could think of a single benefit of the EU unleashing cross-regional cash limits. Granted, 37% of respondents were from Germany and 19% from Austria (56% in total), two countries that have a die-hard love for physical lucre. Even among millennials in Germany, two-thirds say they prefer paying in cash to electronic means, a much higher level than in almost any other advanced economy with the exception of Japan. Another 35% of the survey respondents were from France, a country that is not quite so enamored with cash and whose government has already imposed a maximum cash limit of €1,000. By its very nature the survey almost certainly attracted a disproportionate number of arch-defenders of physical cash. As such, the responses it elicited are unlikely to be a perfect representation of how all Europeans would feel about the EU’s plans to introduce maximum cash limits. Nonetheless, the sheer strength of opposition should (but probably won’t) give the apparatchiks in Brussels pause for thought. Respondents cited a number of objections to EU-wide cash restrictions, chief among them the convenience of using cash and the limited impact the measure would probably have on achieving its “stated” objectives of curbing terrorism, tax evasion, and money laundering. Of course, there are many other reasons to worry about living in a cashless (or “less cash”) society that were not offered as an option in the survey, including the vastly increased power it would give to political and monetary authorities as well as the near-impossibility of ever escaping from the clutches of the banking system or central banks’ monetary experiments. The biggest cited concern for respondents was the threat the cash restrictions would pose to privacy and personal anonymity. A total of 87% of respondents viewed paying with cash as an essential personal freedom. The European Commission would beg to differ. In the small print accompanying the draft legislation it launched in January, it pointed out that privacy and anonymity do not constitute “fundamental” human rights. Be that as it may, many Europeans still clearly have a soft spot for physical money. If the EU authorities push too hard, too fast in their war on cash, they could provoke a popular backlash. In Germany, trust in Europe’s financial institutions is already at a historic low, with only one in three Germans saying they have confidence in the ECB. The longer QE lasts, the more the number shrinks. Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann has already warned that it would be “disastrous” if people started to believe cash would be abolished — an oblique reference to the risk of negative interest rates and the escalating war on cash triggering a run on cash. The IMF has also waded into the debate with a working paper full of sage advice for governments keen on “de-cashing” – as the IMF calls this procedure – their economies against the will of their citizenry (emphasis added): The private-sector-led de-cashing seems preferable to the public-sector-led decashing. The former seems almost entirely benign (e.g., more use of mobile phones to pay for coffee), but still needs policy adaptation. The latter seems more questionable, and people may have valid objections to it. De-cashing of either kind leaves both individuals and states more vulnerable to disruptions, ranging from power outages to hacks to cyberwarfare. In any case, the tempting attempts to impose de-cashing by a decree should be avoided, given the popular personal attachment to cash.   A targeted outreach program is needed to alleviate suspicions related to de-cashing; in particular, that by de-cashing the authorities are trying to control all aspects of peoples’ lives, including their use of money, or push personal savings into banks. It basically involves making it easier and cheaper for people to use electronic payment methods while subtly turning the screw on those who would prefer to continue using cash (for perfectly valid reasons, as the IMF itself admits), presumably by making it more difficult and expensive to do so. In many places it’s already happening. But a surprisingly large number of people still appear to have a strong sense of attachment to physical money, particularly in Europe’s most important economy, Germany. And if the survey is any indication, they have little interest in changing those habits.

09 июля, 01:20

Who Knew? German Central Bank Has Been Selling Gold For More Than A Decade

Authored by Louis Cammarosano via Smaulgld.com, Deutsche Bundesbank gold reserves shrink 45 tons over the past ten years. German Central Bank holdings fall From 3,420.6 tons at the end of Q2 2007 to 3375.6 tons, a drop of 1,446,783 ounces. German gold reserves have decreased 1.3% over ten years. Bring the Gold Home & Sell Some Deutsche Bundesbank, the central bank of Germany, has gained a high profile for its insistence on repatriating a good portion of its gold from vaults at the New York Fed, the Bank of England of London and the Bank of France in Paris. We have been covering the German gold repatriation story since they made their request in 2013 here, here, here and here. The German repatriation requests aimed to rebalance the Deutsche Bundesbank’s gold holdings from nearly 70% held abroad to 50% held within Germany’s borders. The German Central Bank announced earlier this year that it has nearly completed its plan to repatriate its gold. Jens Weidman, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank once famously said: “Indeed, the fact that central banks can create money out of thin air, so to speak, is something that many observers are likely to find surprising and strange, perhaps mystical and dreamlike, too – or even nightmarish.” In this video from the Deutsche Bundesbank, German nationals, Deutsche Bundesbank representatives and Herr Weidman explain the importance of gold to Germany. Given the Deutsche Bundesbank’s statements and the accelerated German gold repatriation schedule, we are surprised to see that the Deutsche Bundesbank has been a steady seller of its gold over the past ten years. German Gold Reserves 2007 – 2017 The Duetsche Bundesbank gold reserves fell 45 tons from June 30 2007 to May 31, 2017. The Central Bank of Germany holds the second largest gold reserves of any central bank. Currently, with the People’s Bank of China halting its gold purchases since October 2016, only the Central Banks of Russia, Kazakhstan and recently Turkey are steady buyers of gold.

08 июля, 01:29

China Central Bank Advisor: "Bitcoin As A Currency Could Collapse Entire Economies"

An advisor to China's central bank, Sheng Songcheng, said that virtual currencies like bitcoin are assets but do not have the fundamental attributes needed to be a currency that could meet modern economic development needs. Speaking in an interview with financial magazine Yicai, the PBOC advisors said that the adoption of Bitcoin as a national currency by a country "could lead to its economic collapse." Sheng Songcheng, a counselor at the PBoC, dismissed digital currencies like bitcoin as assets that lack the value basis of a legitimate currency. "Bitcoin does not have the fundamental attributes needed to be a currency as it is a string of code generated by complex algorithms, and does not have inherent value... But I do not deny that virtual currencies have technical value and are a type of asset," he said cited by Reuters. Apparently he is unaware that paper currencies - the type preferred by central bankers - is made of either strings of linen and paper or strings of 1s and 0s, and - while also having no inherent value - can be infinitely created out of thin air. Sheng, who was the director-general of the Department of Statistics and Research at the People’s Bank of China, holds a PhD in economics from the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics in the 90s. He is currently the professor of economics and finance at a business school in Shanghai. Sheng warned that the deflationary nature of digital currencies - unlike fiat money there is a hard limit on how much can be reated - would mean that they would not function well as a currency or medium of exchange in modern economies. Expanding on his criticism, Reuters quoted Sheng as stated that "Bitcoin would reach its ceiling of 21 million in 2140. If it is accepted as standard money, that will inevitably lead to deflation and constrain economic growth." Of course, that same feature would assure that consumers' purchasing power does not vaporize every time central bankers make a mistake and unleash hyperinflation. Think of it as the old fiat vs gold-backed currency debate, only in this case it's bitcoin-based. His objection is to be expected: after all no central bank wants to be constrained in how much "money" it can print to stimulate inflation in a world where debt/GDP is 327%; and where China's credit creation dwarfs every other central bank. Recall that in the aftermath of the financial crisis, it was China that served as the dynamo of global "growth" as it doubled its total debt over the past decade, something it would be unable to do if there was a hard ceiling on the amount of currency in circulation. Sheng’s comments come at a time of increased PBOC scrutiny of the country’s bitcoin trading markets starting in January of this year. The regulatory oversight has resulted in a number of significant changes among Chinese bitcoin exchanges including the addition of trading fees, stricter know-your-customer/anti-money laundering norms and the curb of margin or loan-based trading. However, Sheng’s most stinging criticism of digital currencies was centered on their volatility, alleging “fluctuations in their prices can easily reach 10 to 30 percent” he added according to cryptocoinsnews: "If a country accepts one of them as its national currency, the entire national economy could collapse due to currency volatility." Which, however, does not explain why various central banks like the ECB and BOE do hold a favorable outlook on digital currencies. One footnote here is that unlike Bitcoin, the digital currencies envision by central banks would be entirely under their control, in effect simply replacing one form of fiat for another, and better yet, making it digital so there is no place to hide the next time rates go negative. * *  * Many governments around the world are still exploring how to regulate and classify bitcoin, whose value surged last month to just shy of $3,000. China has classified it as a "virtual good". Meanwhile, China’s central bank – having opened its digital currency research institute earlier this month – is accelerating its efforts toward launching its own digital currency. As discussed earlier this week, the PBOC completed an early trial of its digital currency on a blockchain late last year. The opinions offered by the former PBoC official are nothing new when pitted with criticisms of decentralized, state-agnostic digital currencies by other central bankers elsewhere. Less than a month ago, German central bank president Jens Wiedmann claimed that instant bank payments would put an end to most citizens’ interest in digital currencies like bitcoin. For separate reasons, less than a month ago, Bundesbank president Jens Wiedmann also claimed that digital currencies will "make the next crisis worse."

07 июля, 13:50

Bond Rout Fades With Futures Flat Ahead Of Payrolls; Pound, Yen, Oil Tumble

S&P futures are little changed following yesterday's rout even as Asian and European markets continued selling; the pound slid on poor factory data, the yen tumbled after the BOJ intervened to stabilize the JGB bond market, precious metals flash crashed early in the session, while the selloff in oil accelerated despite yesterday's massive inventory draw, although at least yesterday's sharp bond tantrum has stabilized. MSCI's gauge of global stocks was at its lowest since late May's record highs and down 0.6% for the week. Global stocks are poised to end the week at six-week lows in the face of oil weakness, a spike in bond yields and anticipation of tighter monetary policy, particularly in the United States. Concerns that the world's central banks are moving closer to unwinding ultra-loose monetary policies have roiled markets and ECB minutes released on Wednesday indicate its policymakers are open to further steps. This sent German government bond yields to 18-month highs, lifted the euro and weighed on stocks.  "Once again, bond markets are ruling FX and having an increasing impact on equity markets," strategists at Morgan Stanley, led by Hans Redeker, said, drawing parallels with moves seen in 2013 during the so-called "taper tantrum," when Fed signals about withdrawing liquidity hit markets. The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies and hit a seven-week high against the yen after the Bank of Japan increased its government bond buying, expanding monetary policy when other central banks are moving towards tightening. Despite Thursday's massive DOE inventory draw, oil was unable to sustain gains and Brent dropped to $47.26. S&P futures held steady as investors await the June jobs report and the first official meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.  S&P futures traded at 2,410 after the cash index dropped to a a six-week low on Thursday, when real estate stocks had their biggest daily drop in 2017. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures are also little changed. Looking at Asia, the yen fell sharply and JGB yields pulled back from five-month highs after the BOJ announced its first unlimited fixed-rate bond purchases since February. As discussed last night, this morning the BoJ offered to buy unlimited fixed-rate purchases for the first time since February to cap the move, offering specifically to buy 10y bonds at 0.110%. While no bids were subsequently tendered, the offer has resulted in yields dropping as low as 0.081%. It’s worth noting that this is the third time that the BoJ has flexed its muscles in controlling the yield curve since introducing the policy in September. The JGB 10s30s re-approaches steepest levels YTD in reaction. Despite the BOJ intervention, Australian sovereign bonds were under heavy selling pressure with the 10-year yield jumping as much as ten basis points to 2.736%; shares in Sydney 1% lower. In China the 7-day repo rate fell seven basis points despite PBOC skipping liquidity operations for eleventh session and draining a whopping CNY 750 billion over the same period; the onshore yuan little was changed. Overnight, China reported that its FX reserves rose for the 5th month in a row, rising another $3bn in June to $3.057TN, however the increase was driven mostly by non-USD currency appreciation. European stocks fell even as the Utilities sector supported risk with Centrica up 4.4% following reported M&A interest. German 10-year Bund yields climbing to an 18-month high as Treasuries also slipped modestly, both rising by 1bp. Italian BTPs underperform due to bond exchange operation increasing duration. The Euro continued its upward move while sterling dropped sharply below 1.29 after U.K. May industrial and construction outputs both dropped, missing an expected increase; core bonds opened steady after yesterday’s sharp technical driven sell-off A quick preview of today's payrolls report courtesy of Deutsche Bank (a detailed breakdown can be found here): Looking ahead to payrolls then, following the low 138k print in May the consensus for June is currently sitting at 178k. Our US economists expect a slightly more meaningful rebound to 210k which would be likely sufficient to keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.3% assuming a slight nudge up in the participation rate. Yesterday’s ADP print (158k vs. 188k expected) was a little less than what the market had expected (and included 33k of downward revisions) however it’s worth noting that the employment components in both of the ISM’s this week have been overall fairly solid (57.2 for the  manufacturing sector and 55.8 for the services sector) and also that the ADP hasn’t necessarily been the best predictor of payrolls in recent months. As always also keep an eye on other elements of the  report including average hourly earnings (+0.3% mom expected). In Rates, German 10-year yields climbed one basis point to 0.57 percent as of 10:50 a.m. in London after rising 9 basis points on Thursday. The yield on 10-year Treasuries added one basis point to 2.38 percent, after climbing four basis points on Thursday. Yields in the Bloomberg USD Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Index advanced 17 basis points to 4.81 percent this week, the most since the week ending Nov. 18. EM sovereign dollar bonds posted their worst week since November. In commodity markets, Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading down 1.2 percent, at $47.55 per barrel. Oil prices are down more than 16 percent this year, muddying the outlook for inflation expectations globally.  WTI crude slips below $45 on rising output: West Texas Intermediate tumbled 2.5% to $44.38 a barrel, more than erasing Thursday’s 0.9 percent gain. Oil is down 3.6 percent for the week as a decline in U.S. stockpiles failed to convince investors that global markets are rebalancing. Gold slipped 0.3% to 1,221.62 an ounce. The precious metal is down 1.6 percent for the week, its worst performance since early May. Dalian iron ore erases early loss to trade 1.1% stronger The yen dropped 0.4 percent to 113.70 per dollar, reversing an earlier gain of 0.1 percent. The currency is down 1.1 percent for the week, heading for the biggest drop since the end of April. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose less than 0.1 percent after dropping 0.3 percent on Thursday. The euro was little changed at $1.1420 after jumping 0.6 percent in the previous session, while the pound slipped 0.4% to $1.2918. The main economic event is the June non-farm payroll data is expected later, there are no major earnings. All eyes will be on the G-20 meeting in Hamburg. Bulletin headline summary from RanSquawk USD-index was contained below 96.00. Precious metals pressured by a flash crash in silver Poor UK Data weighs on GBP Looking ahead, highlights include US and Canadian job reports Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.05% at 2,409.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 379.54 MXAP down 0.6% to 152.84 MXAPJ down 0.4% to 500.36 Nikkei down 0.3% to 19,929.09 Topix down 0.5% to 1,607.06 Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 25,340.85 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,217.96 Sensex up 0.1% to 31,400.50 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1% to 5,703.57 Kospi down 0.3% to 2,379.87 German 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 0.56% Euro down 0.06% to 1.1416 per US$ Brent Futures down 1.8% to $47.26/bbl WTI Futures down to $44.38/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 10.7 bps to 1.973% Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 1.664% Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,221.55 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 95.96 Top Overnight News Chinese President Xi Jinping took a swipe at the U.S. for retreating from globalization, exposing the tensions before a meeting of world leaders divided over everything from trade and climate change to handling North Korea’s provocations Hedge-fund investor Ray Dalio called time on the era of central bank stimulus, saying the global economy is heading toward a new stage where markets won’t get the same level of support from monetary policy makers The BOJ asserted control over the nation’s bond yields, sending borrowing costs lower with its first fixed-rate purchase operation since February after a global debt selloff Wal-Mart Stores sold yen bonds for the first time in seven years, taking advantage of falling fundraising costs and Japanese demand for securities issued by well-known U.S. firms Apple fires back at supplier Imagination in contract disputeEuropean May Industrial Production m/m: Germany 1.2% vs 0.2% est; France 1.9% vs 0.6% est; Spain 1.2% vs 0.5% est. ECB’s Coeure: underlying inflation pressure still weak; fears regarding side of effects of negative rates not justified at present ECB’s Knot: policy decisions will always be dictated by the economic circumstances and not instrument availability U.K. May Industrial Production m/m: -0.1% vs +0.4% est; motor vehicle production -4.4%, most since Feb. 2016 BOJ: announces first unlimited fixed-rate bond purchase operation since February; receives no tendered bids China June FX Reserves rise $3.2b from May to $3.056t; fifth consecutive monthly rise Merkel Girds for G-20 Discord as Trump-Putin Meeting Looms Trump Says Had ’Great Meeting’ With Merkel, Abe, Moon Russians Are Said to Be Suspects in Nuclear Site Hackings Russia ready to weigh any market proposal at July 24 summit China teapot refinery runs fall to lowest in two months: SCI99 Icahn’s Tropicana Purchases Chelsea Hotel in Atlantic City Asia stock markets traded negative across the board amid spill-over selling after global central banks continued strike a hawkish tone. ASX 200 (-1.8%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) were pressured from the open with energy among the laggards after oil prices failed to maintain post-DoE gains, while miners were also spooked following a flash crash in silver, and to a much lesser extent gold, which was speculated to have been caused by a fat finger early in the session. Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) and Hang Seng (-0.5%) conformed to the downbeat tone after the PBoC refrained from OMOs for the 11th consecutive day which resulted to a net liquidity drain of CNY 250bn for the week and was shortly followed by surges in money market rates, with the CNH overnight HIBOR up by over 70bps and at a 1-month high. 10yr JGBs were supported following the Rinban operation in which the BoJ increased its purchases in the 5yr-10yr by JPY 50bIn and offered to buy an unlimited amount at a fixed yield of 0.11%. This measure was in response to an increase in 10yr yields which initially rose to their highest since February, alongside gains across global yields. However, upside in 10yr JGBs then petered out as the BoJ's fixed rate operation received no bids, considering that market prices were above the BoJ's offer. BoJ offered to buy unlimited amount of 10yr JGBs at yield of 0.110%. Top Asian News Hong Kong Braces for Higher Rates as Currency Losses Quicken World’s Biggest Pension Fund Has Best Performance in Two Years Japanese Yields Retreat After BOJ Offer While Aussie Bonds Slide China Foreign Reserves Rise for a Fifth Month as Yuan Stabilizes Bank Indonesia Sees 2017 Budget Deficit at 2.6% of GDP at Most Citi Is Said to Start Shutting Down Branches in S. Korea: Yonhap EUR bourses have not taken any real direction; trading marginally lower for the session, as Energy names lag following the evening bearish pressure seen in oil markets. A miss from the UK proved to add no real concern in equity markets, as the FTSE shrugged off concerns, possibly trading solitude in the figures potentially delaying the BoE. European fixed income markets have taken small direction from the bid seen in the Asian session, following the BoJ's offer to buy unlimited about of lOy JGBs. The German bund still trades above 0.50%, however, the yield does underperform across the curve; with the global 10 years lagging against the rest of the maturities. Gilts took much of the morning attention, as the poor UK figures resulted support for buying in the UK 10y. BTPs are slipping however, many have touted this to expected ahead of today's exchange tapping the 2.33 to lift front end paper. The 10 years remain in focus due to the aforementioned BoJ comments; with the BTP/Bunds spread now at 1.6bps and BTP/Bonos 1bps cheaper. Top European News German Industry Output Rises for Fifth Month Amid Solid Upswing U.K. Factories, Builders Cut Output, Clouding Growth Outlook U.K. Says Enormously Disappointed at Failure of Cyprus Talks U.K. House Prices Increase at Slowest Pace in Four Years Scale Into Long Positions in Bunds Around 0.62%, Citigroup Says Inflation ‘Shock’ Gives Bank of Russia Food for Thought on Rates Activist Fund Elliott Is Said to Build Stada Stake Amid Bids In currencies, the headline number coming into US jobs data was UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production taking the morning spotlight with the UK missing across the board. The concern is interesting, as the BoE has taken a more hawkish tone of late, leaving focus now on the BoE, if they will continue to indicate that the UK economy is ready for a 25bps move. The NFP report will take the vast focus today, alongside CAD watchers looking out for the Canadian employment figures. Price action across FX markets has followed the usual pre-NFP tone, seeing subdued trade as participants await. EUR has continued to gain and will be likely the main focus into the NFP report, optimism for EUR is clear with United Overseas Bank the latest to follow Deutsche and Morgan Stanley in taking EUR/USD long positions. The CAD recovery has slowed, largely due to the increased oil production out of the US, as 1.3202 behaves as the next key resistance level in USD/CAD. Loony watchers will await the Canadian employment figures, with the BoC very much taking centre court on men's quarter finals day. The headline employment change is expected at 10K and unemployment 6.6%, any drastic change here could potentially hinder the BoCs plans. In commodities, precious metals garnered much of the attention overnight — stemmed by a Silver flash crash, with many accounting this to a fat Finger', a mistake that is seemingly becoming more and more common. Silver fell from 16.140, printing a low of 14.328, however, a huge bounce was evident and the metal trades near pre-crash levels. The silver move weighed on the other precious metals, with Gold and Platinum seeing selling pressure off the back of the overnight fat finger. Oil has continued to reside near session lows through today's trade, as increased output continues to overshadow the DoE report. Production being ramped-up by the USA, alongside rebel problems lowering in Syria and Nigeria a further lmin BPD is being pumped. The increased production from these countries have put a huge dent in the agreed combined 1.8min BPD cut across the OPEC nations and Russia. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we are due get May industrial production reports from Germany, France and the UK as well as trade data from the latter two countries. Over in the US it’s all about the June employment report due out at 8.30am. It’s also worth keeping an eye on the Fed’s July 2017 monetary policy report due to be delivered to Congress at 11am. This will form the basis for Yellen’s testimony in front of Congress and the Senate next week which is almost always a closely watched event. Finally the other potentially significant event for markets is the G-20 leaders gathering in Hamburg. The gathering kicks off today and continues into the weekend with Merkel, Trump and Putin amongst the leaders attending. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 178,000, prior 138,000 Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3% Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.5% Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.4, prior 34.4 Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.71%, prior 62.7% Underemployment Rate, prior 8.4% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Payrolls Friday comes today at an intriguing time for markets. If you'd chosen these last two weeks to have been on your compulsory time away then you'd be coming back to a very different atmosphere to the one you'd left. It was only last Tuesday morning that we were casually waiting for Draghi to speak in Sintra. Innocent days indeed. Yesterday saw another sharp sell-off in bonds and we again recap the 10 year moves yesterday alongside the moves since the open on Tuesday 27th June - aka Draghi Day. The first number in brackets refers to yesterday’s move while the second number is since the open on Draghi Day. The moves are as follows: Germany (+9.1bps and +31.7bps), US (+4.3bps +22.9bps), France (+9.9bps and +32.0bps), Italy (+10.9bps and +36.9bps), Spain (+10.4bps and +30.1bps) and UK (+5.5bps and +30.5bps). Although the moves in Japan have been far less extreme, this morning 10y JGBs touched a high of 0.103% and crucially edged above 0.10% and what is seen as the upper limit of the BoJ’s target range. By comparison on the start of Draghi Day yields were hovering around 0.049%. However, early this morning the BoJ offered to buy unlimited fixed-rate purchases for the first time since February to cap the move, offering specifically to buy 10y bonds at 0.110%. While no bids were subsequently tendered, the offer has resulted in yields dropping to 0.081% as we go to print. It’s worth noting that this is the third  time that the BoJ has flexed its muscles in controlling the yield curve since introducing the policy in September. Putting Japan to one side, there’s no doubt that there has been a significant repricing in the last week and a half across global bond markets. 10y Bunds cleared 0.500% with some ease yesterday before closing at 0.562% and to the highest since January 2016. Unsurprisingly some of the longer duration assets stand out with this rate move. Argentina’s 100y bond issued last month is down over 4pts during the rout. The longest dated Gilt (July 2068 maturity) is off 13pts. The longest dated OAT (May 2066 maturity) is off 9pts and the longest dated BTP (March 2067 maturity) is off 6pts. Looking ahead to payrolls then, following the low 138k print in May the consensus for June is currently sitting at 178k. Our US economists expect a slightly more meaningful rebound to 210k which would be likely sufficient to keep the unemployment rate steady at 4.3% assuming a slight nudge up in the participation rate. Yesterday’s ADP print (158k vs. 188k expected) was a little less than what the market had expected (and included 33k of downward revisions) however it’s worth noting that the employment components in both of the ISM’s this week have been overall fairly solid (57.2 for the manufacturing sector and 55.8 for the services sector) and also that the ADP hasn’t necessarily been the best predictor of payrolls in recent months. As always also keep an eye on other elements of the report including average hourly earnings (+0.3% mom expected). Back to the bond moves yesterday, the initial selloff appeared to be sparked by a weak 30y auction in France which attracted a bid to cover ratio of just 1.53x compared to 1.93x at the previous sale last month. Not long after that we got the ECB minutes which appeared to suggest some debate amongst policy members about removing the reference to the easing bias around QE. While it was subsequently left in, with the minutes also cautioning to the fact that “even small and incremental changes in the communication could be misperceived as signalling a more fundamental change in policy direction”, the  discussion did appear to add more fuel to the fire around the normalization debate. The ECB’s Praet also spoke although his comments didn’t seem to garner much interest (mostly referencing the need to adopt a steady hand with policy). The Bundesbank’s Weidmann spoke after the European close however and said that “the continued economic recovery is opening the perspective of a monetary policy normalization” and that “it is decisive that the expansionary monetary policy is ended when it becomes necessary from a price stability perspective”. The BoE’s Ian McCafferty (hawkish) also said that we could see a couple of “modest rate rises” at the BoE over the next couple of years if the economy evolves along the lines of the forecasts put out in May. The end result of another 24-hour bond rout has also been a similarly weak session for equities. The S&P 500 closed -0.94% yesterday after rate-sensitive sectors took a hit and that move means that the index is now down -1.80% from the all-time high recorded intraday back on June 19th. The Dow and Nasdaq also finished -0.74% and -1.00% respectively while the Stoxx 600 closed -0.67% prior to this. European Banks did however rise another +0.65% and have now gained in 7 of the last 9 sessions. Commodities took a breather yesterday with Gold ending -0.15% and WTI Oil rebounding a modest +0.86%.  This morning in Asia the Nikkei (-0.14%), Hang Seng (-0.38%), Shanghai Com (-0.24%), Kospi (-0.19%) and ASX (-1.15%) are all in the red while outside of JGBs yields across Asia Pac are also sharply higher. With regards to the remaining data in the US yesterday, the other notable release was the ISM non-manufacturing print for June which came in half a point higher relative to May at 57.4 (vs. 56.5 expected). In the details the new orders component rose 2.8pts to 60.5 while, as noted earlier, the employment component dipped 2pts to 55.8 albeit to a still relatively solid level. The final services PMI also surprised to the upside after being revised up 1.2pts from the initial flash reading to 54.2 which leaves it 0.6pts above the May reading. The rest of the data included a largely in line trade deficit for May ($46.5bn) and a  248k initial jobless claims reading (which was up 4k on the week prior). The latest batch of data has seen the Atlanta Fed revise down their Q2 GDP print to 2.7% (versus the 3.0% estimate a few days prior). Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we are due get May industrial production reports from Germany, France and the UK as well as trade data from the latter two countries. Over in the US this  afternoon it’s all about the aforementioned June employment report due out at 1.30pm BST. It’s also worth keeping an eye on the Fed’s July 2017 monetary policy report due to be delivered to Congress. This will form the basis for Yellen’s testimony in front of Congress and the Senate next week which is almost always a closely watched event. Finally the other potentially significant event for markets is the G-20 leaders gathering in Hamburg. The gathering kicks off today and continues into the weekend with Merkel, Trump and Putin amongst the leaders attending. So we’ll see if there are any interesting headlines to emerge from that. It’s worth also noting that the ECB’s Coeure is scheduled to take part in an annual economics forum on Sunday.

05 июля, 13:44

Global Stocks Rebound From Korea Jitters; S&P Flat As Fed Minutes Await; Oil Slides

S&P futures were little changed at 2,425, ignoring the N.Korea tensions of the past two days which will likely be a major topic in the upcoming G-20 summit, as European stocks fluctuate and Asian markets advance. Crude oil fell, snapping the longest winning streak this year, as Russia said it opposed any proposal to deepen OPEC-led production cuts. Just like Tuesday, it was a session of two halves, with the Yen initially starting the day stronger as military tensions built up in Korean peninsula, and cash Treasuries breaking with a firmer tone as 10-year yield initially fell. Aussie reversed part of Tuesday’s losses despite a drop in Caixin PMI data, and Dalian iron ore 1.6% higher. "North Korea has rattled markets but central bankers are more important," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index in London. "While North Korea’s military ambitions are a background threat for markets, we don’t think that this particular geopolitical event is at the stage yet where it will cause a spike in volatility." However as the session progressed, gold and the Japanese yen gave up early gains, with both the metal and the currency retreating. At the same time, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3 percent, regaining half the losses it saw on Tuesday when North Korea fired a missile into Japanese waters. South Korea's main index rebounded by 0.36 percent and Japan's Nikkei ended up 0.25 percent. Shanghai stocks rose more than 1 percent, despite a drop in the Caixin/Markit services purchasing managers' index (PMI) to 51.6 in June, from 52.8 in May. Of note in China is the continued aggressive tightening behind the scenes, with the People’s Bank of China refraining from offering funds in open-market operations for a ninth day, effectively draining more cash, in the past two weeks than it had injected from June 1 to June 19 amid quarter-end funding demand. The Chinese central bank has pulled 660b yuan since June 20, more than the 540b yuan it had injected from June 1 to June 19. The PBOC said there’s ample liquidity in the banking system, taking into account lenders’ reserve requirement payments and reverse-repo maturities. Sooner or later this latest tightening episode will hit risk assets and commodities, but not just yet. In fact, China’s 7-day repo rate dropped another 5bps to 2.71%, set for the lowest close since April 14. The overnight repo rate falls 14bps to 2.50%, heading for biggest decline in three monthsm while the cost of one-year interest-rate swaps declines 5bps to 3.42%. Meanwhile, the dollar rose as U.S. stock futures and Treasuries traded sideways before the FOMC Minutes release today. The euro dropped and European stocks edged higher amid a slew of services data, and as investors await Thursday’s publication of the latest ECB minutes. The return in risk sentiment helped USDJPY push higher through 113.60, the highest since May 16 as EUR/JPY breaks to another YTD high; EUR/USD briefly spiked lower after ECB’s Coeure says the ECB has not been discussing policy changes. Gilts underperform after hawkish commentary from BOE’s Saunders overnight and duration heavy corporate issuance, short-end leads gilt curve steeper. Crude futures sold off on OPEC production concerns and Russian comments (see below) mid-morning amid heavy volume. European equity markets initially rally from the open, DAX outperforms after Adidas upgrade; gains later fade as oil and gas stocks weigh. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained less than 0.1 percent after  surging 1.1 percent on Monday.  Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed. The cash index rose 0.2% Monday in a shortened session before the July 4 holiday. While aside from FX, there were little notable moves, oil futures dropped 1.7 percent in New York, snapping eight straight sessions of gains. Russia wants to continue with the current deal and any further supply curbs would send the wrong message to the market, according to government officials. The U.S. dollar gained, reducing the appeal of commodities denominated in that currency While prices have surged during the past week, oil remains in a bear market after concerns that rising global supply will offset output cuts from OPEC and its partners. Libya and Nigeria, exempt from the OPEC-led curbs, accounted for half of the group’s production boost last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Focus now shifts to the key event on Wednesday, the latest Fed minutes. “The FOMC minutes will be the major macroeconomic highlight as the U.S. returns from the Independence Day break,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a market analyst at London Capital Group, wrote in a note. “Lack of details regarding the Fed’s balance sheet policy could further weigh on U.S. yields and the dollar.” “The more interesting aspect of the minutes is going to be what they have to say about the balance sheet, and in particular, if they give any hints about the time frame,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities in New York. Should the minutes refer to financial conditions, reiterating comments from Yellen, Fischer and Williams, the market will have to assume that the Fed may be willing to ignore the current inflation undershoot, leaving markets with very little other option than trading closer to the Fed’s own interest rate projections as expressed by the dots, Morgan Stanley strategists say in a note to clients. A shift towards more hawkish language by several major central banks has dominated the past week and left markets unsure of how much longer emergency stimulus in Europe will continue to support global asset prices. For now investors seem to be giving policymakers the benefit of the doubt that the global economy can take any tightening of monetary policy, although the latest data on Wednesday was mixed - strong in Europe and weaker in China. Currency markets were in limbo, the euro trading just over half a cent below last week's 14-month highs against the dollar. The dollar and yen were the main victims of the shift in language last week, but many analysts wonder whether the European Central Bank will be able to rein in money-printing later this year if the euro keeps gaining. "I meet a lot of people while I talk to clients who think the ECB simply won't be able to escape its current policy setting because a stronger currency is too damaging," said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes. "The thought the ECB will resist pressure...is still leading many ... to look for cheaper levels to buy euro." As a result, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index strengthened 0.2 percent. The British pound was 0.2 percent weaker at $1.2898. The euro also slipped 0.2 percent to &1.1326. In addition to the drop in oil, safe haven gold was also weaker, dropping 0.1% to $1,222.35 an ounce, erasing an earlier gain of 0.5 percent. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 2.35%.  U.K. benchmark yields advanced four basis points to 1.28 percent.  French and German yields were little changed. Factory orders and Federal Reserve minutes expected later. Bulletin HeadlineSummary from RanSquawk Geopolitical tensions mount amid further missile testing from North Korea. North Korea aims to create an ICBM capable of hitting the US this year EUR sags as ECB's Couere says the ECB has yet to discuss changing policy. Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC minutes and API Crude Inventories. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,424.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 382.4 MXAP up 0.2% to 153.96 MXAPJ up 0.3% to 503.49 Nikkei up 0.3% to 20,081.63 Topix up 0.6% to 1,618.63 Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 25,521.97 Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,207.13 Sensex up 0.03% to 31,218.28 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 5,763.25 Kospi up 0.3% to 2,388.35 German 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.484% Euro up 0.04% to 1.1350 per US$ Brent Futures up 0.08% to $49.65/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 2.2 bps to 1.819% Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 1.538% Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,222.05 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.33 Top Overnight News Fed Minutes May Give Clues on When Balance- Sheet Runoff to Start Kim Jong Un ’firmly determined and committed’ to test ICBM capable of hitting U.S. within this year: KCNA UN Set to Meet on North Korea as U.S. Confirms Rocket Was ICBM; U.S. says North Korean ICBM test represents a new escalation of threat European Jun. Service PMIs: Spain 58.3 vs 56.5 est; Italy 53.6 vs 54.6 est; France 56.9 vs 55.3 est; Germany 54.0 vs 53.7 est; Markit note a further easing in cost inflationary pressures, as input prices rose at the weakest rate since last November ECB’s Coeure: the Governing Council has not been discussing changes in our monetary policy, that may come in the future, but it hasn’t come yet BOE’s Saunders says prepare for rate increases ’at some point’: Guardian Germany sees Saudi-led alliance rejecting Qatar’s crisis response Russia said to oppose any move to deepen OPEC cuts at July talks Trump-Putin Talks Raise Anxiety Ex- Spymaster Will Get Upper Hand Stada Supervisory Board Said to Discuss Replacing CEO Wiedenfels ANZ Said to Narrow Bidders in $3 Billion Sale of Wealth Unit AIA, MetLife Said to Ready Binding Bids for ANZ Wealth Unit: AFR HSBC Said in Talks With U.S. to End Crisis-Era Mortgage Probe Monte Paschi’s Italian Rescue Wins EU Nod After Months of Talks Euro Area Faces Capacity Bottlenecks as Recovery Gathers Pace U.K. Recommends Alexion’s Strensiq for Rare Bone Disorder Elbit Europe Unit Gets $35m Contract for Electro Optic Systems Poland May Pick Lockheed to Supply Mobile Rocket Launcher System General Motors China June Vehicle Sales Rise 4.3% on Year Freeport Indonesia Is Optimistic Will Achieve Win-Win Solution Asia equity markets were mostly higher as the region recovered from the opening losses triggered by heightened tensions in the Korean Peninsula after the recent North Korean missile test. ASX 200 (+0.1 %) and Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) were pressured for the majority of the session amid increased provocation by North Korea, although stocks in Japan returned flat with JPY price action as the main driver. China was initially subdued after Caixin Services PMI printed a 13-month low and as participants in Hong Kong were despondent from yesterday's tech-led selling, in which Tencent dropped over 4% after a state backed paper branded its game as poison and called for tighter regulation. However, stocks in the region were also resilient as the Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) and Hang Seng (+0.6%) gradually rebounded into positive territory. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued as sentiment gradually improved with 10yr JGB futures breaking below last week's lows to test the 150.00 level to the downside. Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Jun) 51.6 vs. Exp. 52.9 (Prey. 52.8); 13-month low. (Newswires) - Caixin Composite PMI (Jun) 51.1 (Prey. 51.5) Top Asia News U.S. Confirms North Korea Missile Was ICBM, Warns of UN Action Singapore July COE First Open Tender: Summary (Table) Alibaba Challenges Google, Amazon With New Echo-Like Device Flipkart, Snapdeal Said to Duel Over $100 Million Valuation Gap UN Set to Meet on North Korea as U.S. Confirms Rocket Was ICBM BHP’s New Chairman to Drive ‘Radical Shift’ at World’s Top Miner Essar Steel Launches Challenge to Stop Insolvency Proceedings Asia Stocks Rebound While Haven-Asset Demand Fades: Markets Wrap Freeport, Indonesia Eye Early Resolution to Grasberg Dispute In European markets, risk appetite has been evident following the European cash equity open, despite Korean Peninsula geopolitical concerns continuing. Materials outperform, as Glencore trades up over 2% in the FTSE. Credit Suisse have noted the recent correlation between the oil names and mining names, as the recent reprieve seen in Oil markets seemingly benefiting the aforementioned mining names.The risk on sentiment has been led by the treasury market, as yields continue to strengthen across the AAA's. Increasingly hawkish commentary from the BoE, most recently BoE's Saunders, has taken its toll on UK paper, with the weakness in Gilts leading to stops being run across the other majors. The lOy Bund is looking towards the 0.50% yield, with the T-note now trading around the 2.30% level. JPY has also seen continued bearish pressure, the noticeable mover in early FX trade, trading past the week's high, now set to test 114.31 (May's high). Top European News Russia Said to Oppose Any Move to Deepen OPEC Cuts at Talks North Korea Says Missile It Fired Today Was An ICBM Yen Reverses Gain as Risk Sentiment Improves, Treasuries Drop Bunds Heavy as Stocks Gain, Bobl Lags; Gilts Hit on Issuance Baidu Snags 50-Plus Partners for its Apollo Driverless Car Qatar’s Antagonists Huddle on Next Steps as Deadline Expires Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the main focus will likely be on the remaining PMIs (services and composite readings). We’ll get final revisions for the Euro area, Germany and France as well as the first look at the data in the periphery and the UK. The other data due to be released this morning is May retail sales figures for the Euro area. Over in the US we’ll get May factory orders data and also final revisions to the May durable and capital goods numbers. This evening we’ll then get the FOMC minutes from the June meeting where it’ll be interesting to see how much of a debate there is around the inflation outlook given some of the Fed speak recently. Along with that, it’ll be interesting to see if there are any further details around balance sheet normalization. Away from the data German Chancellor Merkel is due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of the G20 summit later this week. US Event Calendar 10am: Factory Orders, est. -0.5%, prior -0.2%; Durable Goods Orders, est. -1.0%, prior -1.1%Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.1%; Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.1% Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.2%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.2% 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Happy Boxing Independence Day. I'm sure there will likely still be lower than average volumes today as people take an extended break after yesterday's celebrations. One interesting landmark about today is that it marks exactly 10 years since the last UK rate hike. Interestingly, if you look across the wider G20 then there are only 2 other central banks who can also say that they have gone at least 10 years since last hiking. One is Japan and the other is Saudi Arabia. Those two countries last hiked their benchmark rates in February 2007, so only a few months ahead of the BoE. It’s worth adding that we included  individual central banks within the EU (given that it is part of the G20) so the actual sample size was 43 (that also includes individual central banks as part of the ECB). In an otherwise quiet start, central banks are one of the two main themes for markets so far this week. Indeed yesterday we heard from a couple more ECB speakers. The first was board member Peter Praet who, in a speech in Rome, preached for patience at the ECB given that inflation still needs “more time to show through convincingly in the data”. He also said that the ECB needs to be persistent given that the baseline scenario for future inflation "remains crucially contingent on very easy financing conditions which to a large extent depend on the current accommodative policy stance”. Fellow board member Ewald Notowny told an audience that the ECB should “normalize as soon as the economy allows” but that at the same time he “expects a long period of low rates”. The other theme for markets in the last 24 hours is one of a geopolitical nature following confirmation that North Korea had fired an intercontinental ballistic missile yesterday – the first such missile launch of its kind by North Korea. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called the move a “new escalation of the threat” last night and that “global action is required to stop a global threat”. Tillerson also said that “any country that hosts North Korean guest workers, provides any economic or military benefits, or fails to fully implement UN Security Council resolutions is aiding and abetting a dangerous regime”. Russia’s  Putin and China’s Xi also condemned the move at a meeting in Moscow. The UN Security Council have announced that they will hold an emergency closed session on Wednesday to discuss the latest act while overnight we’ve learned that both the US and South Korea have conducted joint test missile launches of their own. One would have to imagine that this subject will dominate Friday and Saturday’s G20 summit agenda. As a reminder both President Trump and China’s Xi will be attending and it’s not gone unnoticed that tensions between the two leaders has been climbing in past couple of weeks. That North Korea news appeared to be the catalyst which saw markets take a few chips off the table yesterday, albeit on thin volumes. The Stoxx 600 (-0.29%), DAX (-0.31%) and CAC (-0.40%) were all lower while Asia currencies were also weaker for the most part - particularly the South Korean Won (-0.34% and Taiwanese Dollar (-0.29%). Gold (+0.26%) rose for the first time in 6 days and is up another +0.31% this morning, while the Yen (+0.28%) is also a little firmer. Bond markets were pretty subdued with no real standout moves to highlight. The same can be said for WTI Oil which consolidated above $47/bbl despite some reports that Russia is opposing a proposal for a larger cut to production in the OPEC deal at the meeting later this month. This morning in Asia markets have bounced back a bit following a soft start. The Nikkei (+0.07%), Hang Seng (+0.35%), Shanghai Comp (+0.24%) and Kospi (+0.17%) have all edged higher, although the ASX (-0.37%) is a shade lower. The gains in China are coming despite a reasonable decline in the Caixin services PMI to 51.6 in June from 52.8 the month prior. In Japan the Nikkei services PMI rose 0.3pts to 53.3 in June. Moving on. With little in the way of interesting macro data yesterday (the only release being a soft -0.4% mom Euro area PPI reading for May), the more interesting data was the latest ECB CSPP and PSPP data. The former included monthly totals. Firstly the purchases settled last week implied an average daily run rate of €327mn against the average since CSPP started of €364mn. Although June's purchases have dipped a bit the CSPP/PSPP ratio was 13.6% last month, down from 14.7% in May, but still above the average of 11.6% before the overall QE was trimmed in April. Further on this the average monthly run rate since April 2017 (after QE trimmed) has been €7.49bn (assuming 21 business days per month). The equivalent between July 2016 and March 2017 was €7.59bn (assuming 21 business day per month). On the topic of the CSPP, Michal in my team has just published a report “CSPP Update Before the Summer Lull”. This short note provides an update on the latest pace of CSPP purchases, both in absolute terms and relative to the PSPP, and their split into primary and secondary. We show that the recent outperformance of CSPP-eligible bonds over (non-bank) ineligible ones has brought their relative pricing to where it was just before the US elections. We explain why we think the relative CSPP/PSPP trimming should only have a second-order impact on credit spreads. With regards to the PSPP, the latest data for June revealed that the weighted average Bund maturity rose to 5.33 years from a record low 3.99 years in May. In fact that June average maturity is the highest since the changes to parameters came into full effect in February. That data also revealed a bit of deviation from the capital key for Bunds with total purchases €360m below implied levels. The flip side of that saw France (€1.1bn above capital key) and Italy (€0.9bn above capital key) both benefiting from higher purchases. Portugal (€690m below) continues to see the biggest miss relative to capital keys. Pondering on the swing in Bund purchases, our European rates’ strategists noted last month that as German purchases get closer to exhaustion at the front end, the Bundesbank would be somewhat forced to increase purchases at the longer end which may in part reflect the higher average maturity in June. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the main focus will likely be on the remaining PMIs (services and composite readings). We’ll get final revisions for the Euro area, Germany and France as well as the first look at the data in the periphery and the UK. The other data due to be released this morning is May retail sales figures for the Euro area. Over in the US this afternoon we’ll get May factory orders data and also final revisions to the May durable and capital goods numbers. This evening we’ll then get the FOMC minutes from the June meeting where it’ll be interesting to see how much of a debate there is around the inflation outlook given some of the Fed speak recently. Along with that, it’ll be interesting to see if there are any further details around balance sheet normalization. Away from the data German Chancellor Merkel is due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of the G20 summit later this week.

03 июля, 13:30

S&P Futures, Euro Shares Start 2nd Half Solidly In The Green; Oil Rises For 8th Day

S&P500 futures have started the second half solidly in the green, up 0.3% to 2,429, tracking European markets broadly in the green, while Asian stocks fell slightly and crude oil is little changed. With US markets set to close at 1pm today trading volumes in many markets remain light before Tuesday’s July 4th holiday and as investors await Friday’s report on the American jobs market. Traders will be looking at key upcoming economic data for validation of the hawkish shift from central banks that roiled markets last week.  The Asian session opened with the Yen initially strengthens following Prime Minister Abe’s shocking election loss in the Tokyo Assembly elections, but later reversing gains to trade materially weaker at 112.95 last, on speculation Abe will be forced to inject more stimulus to salvage his standing amid a muted reaction to strongest Tankan survey since 2014. Australian 10-year yield rise four basis points; T-note yield two basis points firmer at 2.32%; shares in Tokyo and Sydney steady in narrow ranges. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan held steady, staying within a stone's throw of a two-year peak hit last week. Japan's Nikkei ticked up 0.1 percent, helped by the solid Tankan report. In China, the PBOC drained liquidity for ninth day, pulling a net 70 billion yuan; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite climbed 0.1 percent amid concerns the world's second-biggest economy could be slowing down. In Hong Kong financial shares benefited from the launch on Monday of the "Bond Connect" scheme linking China's $9 trillion bond market with overseas investors. Industrial metals rose across the board after the Chinese Caixin Mfg PMI rebounded back into expansion territory, rising to 50.4 in June from 49.6 in May, and beating estimates.  Dalian iron ore 2.3% higher: the benchmark iron ore contract climbed on Friday for its best one-week gain since November and is up almost 22% from its $53.36 June 13 low, which by definition places it in a bull market. China’s bond connect program with Hong Kong will give offshore investors another way to access the mainland’s $10 trillion debt market. European stocks started the new quarter with solid gains, rising for the first time in five days as oil and metal gains spurred energy companies and miners. Bank stocks rallied, supported by an FT report of a secret Brexit plan for financial services, sending the Stoxx Europe 600 Index solidly in the green, up 0.7% to 382.03, after suffering its biggest monthly loss in a year in June on worries over tightening monetary conditions. France's CAC 40 index rose 0.8 percent, Spain's IBEX 0.9 percent and Italy's FTSE MIB 1 percent. Britain's main FTSE 100 index added 0.3 percent. European economic data showed a modest retreat with most final Eurozone PMIs backing off slightly from recent flash reading (except for Germany which printed at 59.6, above the 59.3 exp.). Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was at 57.4 in June (Flash: 57.3, May Final: 57.0), with a notable observation that Greece returned to expansion while job creation stayed close to May’s survey record. While the final PMIs disappointed modestly from the preliminary prints, this is how Eurozone's various mfg sentiment surveys close the month of June: Austria, 60.7: 76-month high Germany, 59.6: 74-month high Netherlands, 58.6: 74-month high Ireland, 56.0: 23-month high Italy, 55.2: 2-month high France, 54.8: 2-month high Spain, 54.7: 2-month low Greece, 50.5: 37-month high Meanwhile, unemployment in Italy rose to 11.3% in May, higher than the expectation of an unchanged 11.2% April print. Crude was modestly in the green, climbing for an eighth day running, the longest winning streak this year extending gains after Baker Hughes data on Friday showed the number of active U.S. rigs falling for the first time in 24 weeks. WTI has climbed 8% in the past 8 days. Hedge fund wagers on lower prices in the week through June 27 increased at a slower pace than the two previous weeks, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, suggesting the bearish sentiment may be about to turn.  Prices surged last week while WTI and Brent still posted a monthly loss in June on concerns over rising global supply; Libyan production has climbed to more than 1m b/d for 1st time in 4 years. “Given the recent upward momentum, it wouldn’t be surprising to see oil fairly close to some sort of downward correction,” says Ric Spooner, a market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “Libya is probably close to its peak production. Nevertheless, the fact its output reached these levels faster than some had anticipated is a negative for the overall supply situation.” Elsewhere, wheat jumped to a two-year high on the Chicago Board of Trade as agriculture markets soared on an expanding drought in the U.S. and disappointing data on sowed acreage.  Gold slipped 0.5 percent to $1,235.89 an ounce. The yen fell 0.4 percent to 112.87 per dollar, after erasing an earlier advance of as much as 0.4 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3 percent after dropping 1 percent last week and touching the lowest level since October. The euro, which hit 14-month highs against the dollar last week after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hinted at tweaks to the bank's bond-buying stimulus program, fell 0.3 percent to $1.1394. The pound finally fell 0.4% to $1.2973 after an eight-day rally... ... following weaker than expected June PMI data (54.3, vs Exp. 56.3, Last 56.3). The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 2.31 percent, adding to a 16-basis point surge last week, the steepest since March. U.K. 10-year yields added two basis points to 1.27 percent.  While French and German 10-year yields fell one basis point, the hawkish sentiment hardly looks exhausted, with 0.50% on the 10Y Bund looking increasingly likely. Later today, investors can look forward to ISM data and Wards vehicle sales data later on Monday. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,429.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 382.14 MXAP down 0.2% to 154.32 MXAPJ down 0.09% to 504.51 Nikkei up 0.1% to 20,055.80 Topix up 0.2% to 1,614.41 Hang Seng Index up 0.08% to 25,784.17 Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,195.91 Sensex up 0.8% to 31,173.55 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5,684.49 Kospi up 0.1% to 2,394.48 German 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 0.462% Euro down 0.3% to 1.1387 per US$ Italian 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.865% Spanish 10Y yield fell 4.6 bps to 1.493% Brent Futures up 0.3% to $48.91/bbl Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,236.08 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 95.95 Top Overnight News ECB’s Mersch says patience needed as upturn in inflation not yet self-sustained, don’t need 2% inflation to adjust policy; Weidmann says council agrees expansive policy needed, will normalize once inflation justifies it European June Manufacturing PMIs: Spain 54.7 vs 55.6 est; Italy 55.2 vs 55.3 est; France 54.8 vs 55.0 est; Germany 59.6 vs 59.3 est; U.K. 54.3 vs 56.3 est. FT: a City of London delegation will negotiate a secret plan for a free-trade deal on financial services based on the concept of "mutual access" according to people familiar U.S. Navy sends a guided- missile destroyer near disputed Triton Island China June Caixin manufacturing PMI 50.4 vs 49.6 previously Japan PM Abe’s LDP suffers a surprise defeat in Tokyo assembly election Abe adviser Nakahara says BOJ needs fresh face as Kuroda out of ideas Goldman Said to Review Commodities After Worst Start in a Decade Trump’s Rural Broadband Goal Won’t Be Easy. It Will Be Costly Qatar to Respond to Saudi-Led Bloc Demands as Trump Works Phones Kindred Sells Nursing Unit to BlueMountain-Led JV for $700m Autoliv Enters LiDAR Commercialization Deal with Velodyne Rakuten, Lifull Team Up With Homeaway on Home Sharing in Japan CN Resumes Service Near Chicago After Derailment, Crude Leak Delek Drilling Says Tamar Reserve 13% Bigger Than Pvs Estimate EU’s Vestager Says Received No U.S. Reaction to Google Fine HuntsmanClariant May Sell Units for M&A Cash, FuW Cites Next CEO VTG Aktiengesellschaft to Buy CIT’s Nacco Unit for About EUR780m Jakks Pacific Files Up to 5.24m- Share Offer for Holder Meisheng Facebook Wins Dismissal of Privacy Suit Over Internet Tracking Facebook’s Small Print Might Be Antitrust’s Next Big Target Tesla CEO Says Model 3 Passes All Regulatory Requirements Asian markets traded mixed following an indecisive close last Friday on Wall St. where US indices finished their best H1 performance since 2013 in a choppy manner, as energy posted a 7th consecutive gain and tech underperformed. ASX 200 (-0.6%) slipped below 5,700 with utilities and healthcare weighing on the index, while Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) was kept afloat following the mostly better than expected Japanese Tankan data. Shanghai Comp. (Unch.) and Hang Seng (Unch.) failed to benefit from better than expected Caixin Manufacturing PMI data (50.4 vs. Exp. 49.8) and the launch of the bond connect, with participants despondent after the PBoC refrained from liquidity injections for the 7th consecutive session. However, Chinese markets then recovered gradually throughout the session to return flat. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat alongside an inconclusive risk tone, although mild support was seen after the BoJ's JPY 880b1n Rinban operation. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI moved back into expansion overnight, rising to 50.4 for June, vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prey. 49.6). The Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index also beat expectations for Q2 rising to 17 vs. Exp. 15 (Prey. 12). Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q2) Q/Q 15 vs. Exp. 14 (Prey. 11) Tankan All Large CAPEX (Q2) Q/Q 8.00% vs. Exp. 7.40% (Prey. 0.60%) Top Asian News Tarnished Abe Plunged Into Crisis After Tokyo Election Loss Xi, Abe Get Phone Calls From Trump as Asian Tensions Rise Idemitsu to Sell Shares, Diluting Founding Family’s Stake Tata Steel 1Q Sales Volume Jumps 28% to 2.75m Tons Toshiba Mulls a Swiss IPO for Landis+Gyr by September European stocks traded in the green in subdued fashion amid cautious trade as we open the second half of the year. Markets have opened in the green; with global equities trading near record highs on bets of improving growth. All ten sectors trade in the green, as Energy is one of the noticeable out performers as a result of oil continuing to extend on gains, now in the green for the eighth consecutive day — longest winning streak of the year.The uncertainty out of Japan, following a crushing defeat of Japanese Prime Minister's Shinzo Abe's party in the Tokyo elections did not weigh on stock markets, however the flight to safety was clear, as initial buying was seen in safe haven assets. The Asian buying was short lived, as last week's hawkish tone continued to weigh on treasuries through the afternoon of Asian trade. lOy paper is struggling, despite some reprieve seen in Bunds and Gilts, the selling pressure is evident with Gilts trading near session lows around 124.96. Top European News BOE Staff Vote in Favor of Strike Action Over Pay, Unite Says U.K. Manufacturing Slowdown Raises Doubts About Economic Outlook Euro-Area Manufacturing Accelerates as Orders Fuel Optimism Nets Rises on Deal Report; Wirecard Leads Payments Peers Higher Poland’s Kaczynski Invokes Nazis as EU Refugee Clash Deepens EU Presidency Clouded by Feud Threatening Host’s Government Thyssenkrupp Rises on HB News; Bankhaus Lampe Expects Tata Deal Looking at Monday's economic data, we’re kicking off in Europe with the final revisions to the June manufacturing PMIs along with a first look at the data for the UK and periphery. Also due out this morning is the Euro area unemployment rate for May. Over in the US we’ll also receive the final manufacturing PMI revision along with the manufacturing ISM for June and May construction spending. Later in the day we’ll also get June vehicle sales data. US Event Calendar 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.1, prior 52.1 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 55.2, prior 54.9; Prices Paid, est. 58.5, prior 60.5; New Orders, prior 59.5; Employment, prior 53.5 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.25%, prior -1.4% Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 16.5m, prior 16.6m Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 12.9m, prior 12.8m DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap As I reflected on H1 over the weekend, the highlight at home was welcoming back my wife and Maisie yesterday from "In the Night Garden" live. For those not in the know this is basically hallucinogenic Teletubbies. My wife bought Maisie a huge replica of star character Upsy Daisy (who she also had a meet and greet with) and from the moment she got given her to the moment she went to bed 8 hours later she refused to let her go. She wouldn't eat lunch or dinner without her by her side. She wouldn't walk around in the house or garden without dragging her along (impressive as she's bigger than her) and wouldn't let me change her nappy without Upsy helping and she wouldn't go to  bed without her in her cot. It was very sweet but she really wasn't interested in Daddy all day. Good preparation for the teenage years. Bond markets went a bit Upsy Daisy last week and it’s hard to imagine that it was only this time last week that we were saying there wasn't much to get excited about in markets but that there were a couple of events that we should keep an eye on in the week ahead. One of these was the ECB forum in Sintra. Although a big focus, little did we know what that event would unleash in financial markets last week. I suppose one of the big questions is whether the slew of hawkish central bank speak was vaguely co-ordinated or whether there was an element of randomness to it. It felt like the former but these words will be meaningless if the data (growth and inflation) doesn't come through but last week's comments probably indicate that the data bar has been lowered for tightening. Rather than looking for a reason to tighten it feels that we've entered a period where central banks might be looking for a reason not to. So we will perhaps become a little more sensitive to data and as we highlight in the week ahead, today is global PMI/ISM day and a big event in the monthly calendar. The US is off for Independence Day tomorrow so trading might  be thin this week especially in the early half. By the end of the week we have another payroll number to look forward to after last month's disappointing 138k print. Before we get there, it’s not been a particularly busy weekend for newsflow but there are a few bits and bobs worth pointing out. The first concerns more chatter out of the ECB. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann told an audience in Germany that “at the moment we see that the economic situation is rather positive” and that “if this sustainably passes on to inflation rates then monetary policy needs to be more taut, and it’s not about putting full brakes on monetary policy, but to lift one’s foot off the gas a little”. His fellow board member, Yves Mersch, said a day later that recent ECB policy has been successful but it is not yet self-sustained and the ECB needs to continue to have “patience with this policy”. Mersch also indicated that the ECB doesn’t necessarily have to wait for inflation to hit 2% before adjusting policy. The other significant news to report is out of Japan where PM Abe has suffered a landslide defeat in the Tokyo elections with city governor Yuriko Koike’s new party appearing to be headed for a big victory. Koike’s Tomin First party captured 49 of the 127 assembly seats while Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party won just 23 seats (down from its current 57 seats). That total for Abe is less than the previous record low for his party of 38 seats set in 1995 and 2009. With the support of the Komei Party, the Tomin First will easily secure a comfortable majority in the assembly. The FT is reporting that the result could spur Yurkio Koike to mount a similar challenge against Abe in a national election. Abe has called for an extraordinary meeting within his party this morning while reports are suggesting that the result could force Abe to reshuffle his cabinet and, according to Bloomberg, slow down his push to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution. While seemingly a surprise, the Yen is little moved post that result although that may in part reflect an overall upbeat Q2 Tankan survey in Japan this morning. The headline manufacturing index for large manufacturers rose 5pts to +17 (vs. +15 expected) while the outlook index rose 4pts to +15 (vs. +14 expected). Nonmanufacturing readings also rose, as did readings for smaller manufacturers. Meanwhile the Nikkei manufacturing PMI in Japan this morning was revised up 0.4pts to 52.4 (versus 53.1 in May). The Nikkei (+0.13%) and Topix (+0.10%) are a shade higher as we go to print. Meanwhile in China this morning the Caixin manufacturing PMI printed back above 50 again at 50.4 (vs. 49.8 expected) which is a rise of 0.8pts from May. Despite that bourses in China are weaker (Shanghai Comp -0.30%) while the Hang Seng is little changed. It’s worth also highlighting this morning that it is the first day of the China-Hong Kong bond connect which mirror the two stock-connect programmes. Moving on and quickly recapping how markets finished up on Friday. Given the magnitude of the moves for bonds over the week, while weakening a bit more of Friday the moves were relatively subdued all things considered. 10y Bund yields finished 1.4bps higher at 0.465% which means for the week as a whole they were 21.2bps higher. That is the biggest weekly sell-off since December 2015. Gilts were 0.7bps higher on Friday at 1.257% and for the week were 22.6bps higher (weakest since November 2016). OATs were less than 1bp higher on Friday and 20.8bps higher for the week. Meanwhile the periphery finished up to 1.8bps higher on Friday and for the week yields were higher by 11.9bps to 23.9bps. As we know, Treasuries got swept up in the moves too. Yields were another +3.7bps on Friday to close above 2.300% and for the week were 16.1bps higher (most since March 2017). As we’d seen over the week the sell-off for bonds continued to weigh on equity markets in Europe with the Stoxx 600 (-0.34%) ending lower for the fourth consecutive day. For the week the index was down -2.13% which is the fourth down week in succession and the weakest since November last year. It was however a slightly better story across the pond where the S&P 500 edged up +0.15% on Friday to trim its weekly loss to a more modest -0.61%. Further gains across the commodity complex and particularly late in the day for Oil (WTI +2.47% and back above $46/bbl) certainly seemed to help. Friday’s moves for bonds in Europe could probably be put down to the flash June inflation report for the Euro area. As indicated by some of the regional reports, inflation was a little firmer than expected with headline CPI of +1.3% yoy beating estimates for +1.2% (although down from +1.4%) and core CPI of +1.1% yoy beating the consensus estimate for +1.0%. That core reading marked an increase of two-tenths from May. Meanwhile in the US the core PCE deflator for June was confirmed as rising +0.1% mom as expected which puts the annual rate at +1.4% yoy and down one-tenth from May. Elsewhere personal spending nudged up +0.1% mom which matched the consensus although real personal spending (+0.1% mom vs. +0.2% expected) was a modest disappointment. Personal income was up a relatively robust +0.4% mom in May and a tenth more than expected. Away from that the Chicago PMI for June rose to a surprisingly high 65.7 (vs. 58.0 expected) which marked a jump of 6.3pts. That was in fact the higher level since May 2014 which is likely to be a supportive read through for today’s manufacturing data. The other data out on Friday across the pond was the final revision to the June University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading (revised up 0.6pts to 95.1). 1-year ahead inflation expectations were left unchanged at 2.6% however 5-10 year expectations were revised down one-tenth to 2.5%. It’s worth noting that the Atlanta Fed revised down their Q2 GDP forecast by two-tenths to 2.7% on Friday. On to the week ahead now. Today we’re kicking off in Europe with the final revisions to the June manufacturing PMIs along with a first look at the data for the UK and periphery. Also due out this morning is the Euro area unemployment rate for May. Over in the US this afternoon we’ll also receive the final manufacturing PMI revision along with the manufacturing ISM for June and May construction spending. Later this evening we’ll also get June vehicle sales data. Tuesday looks to be quiet with Independence Day in the US. The main attraction is likely the RBA meeting overnight while the only data due out is Euro area PPI. Wednesday looks to be much busier. Overnight in Asia we’ll receive the remaining Caixin PMIs in China and Nikkei PMIs in Japan. In Europe we’ll also get the remaining services and composite PMI revisions as well as retail sales data for the Euro area. In the US on Wednesday data due out includes factory orders for May and the final durable and capital goods orders revisions for May. The FOMC minutes from the June meeting will then be out in the evening. Turning to Thursday, factory orders in Germany is the only release of note in Europe while in the US we’ll get the June ADP print, initial jobless claims, May trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing for June and the final PMI revisions (services and composite). We close out the week in Europe on Friday with industrial production in Germany and trade data and industrial production in France and the UK. In the US on Friday it’s all about the June employment report including nonfarm payrolls. Away from the data, the Fedspeak this week consists of Bullard this morning, Powell on Thursday and Fischer on Friday. The ECB’s Praet and Nowotny speak tomorrow and Weidmann and Nowotny speak on Thursday on the future of the euro. The ECB minutes are also due out on Thursday. Other events to note this week are China President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow on Tuesday where he is due to meet Putin. Germany’s Merkel and China’s Xi meet ahead of the G20 summit on Wednesday and the summit itself is on Friday and Saturday. The Fed will also publish its 2017 monetary policy report to Congress on Friday ahead of Yellen’s testimony on July 12th.

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02 июля, 21:54

Prospect of Weidmann in top job raises hackles at ECB

Bundesbank chief consistently out of sync with governing council on fighting crisis

27 июня, 12:00

Draghi Doesn't See "Bubbles" - Let Me Show You Some

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Mises Institute, Mario Draghi has again missed an exceptional opportunity to adjust monetary policy. By ignoring the huge risks that are being created from the brutal inflation of financial assets, saying that “there are no signs of a bubble,” the European Central Bank (ECB) remains adamantly focused on creating inflation by decree, denying the effects of technology, demography, and overcapacity. “No signs of bubble”? I’ll show you some of them myself. The percentage of debt of major countries “bought” by the ECB: Germany, 17%, France 14%, Italy 12%, and Spain 16%. In all cases, in 2016 and 2015 the ECB was the largest buyer of said countries’ net emissions. Ask yourself a question: On the day the ECB stops buying, which of you would buy peripheral or European bonds at these prices? Clearly, the first sign of a bubble is the absence of demand in the secondary that offsets the impact of the ECB. It indicates that the current price is simply unacceptable in an open market, even if the recovery is confirmed, especially because rates do not even reflect a minimum real return, being below inflation. European Union high-yield bonds are trading at record-low yields despite the fact that cash generation and debt repayment capacity, according to Moody’s and Fitch, have not improved significantly. European largest stocks (Eurostoxx 50) trade at 20x PE and 8.3x EV/EBITDA despite eight years of flat earnings and downgrades, which have only just recently reversed. Infrastructure deals’ multiples have increased five-fold in three years to an astonishing average of 16-19x EBITDA. Excess liquidity in the euro zone already reaches 1.2 trillion euros. It has multiplied by almost seven since the “stimulus” program was launched. Anything for Inflation There is a problem in the huge amount of assets bought by the ECB, whose balance sheet already exceeds 25% of the European Union’s GDP. At the beginning of the repurchase program, it could be argued that risky assets, especially sovereign bonds, could have been cheap or under-valued because of the risk of break-up of the euro and overall negative sentiment. However, that statement cannot be made today, with bond yields at historic lows and debt levels at historic highs. Monetary policy is a perverse incentive to spend more and add more debt. Of course, what the ECB expects is the arrival of the inflation mantra, that mirage that deficit states yearn for and no consumer has ever wanted. But the search for inflation by decree meets the pitfall of reality. The positive disinflation that technological advances generate adds to the logical change of consumption patterns due to aging of the population and the elephant in the room: The European Union has never had a problem of lack of investment, but of excess spending on dozens of industrial and infrastructure plans that have left behind some positive effects, but — due to excess — greater debt and overcapacity . Now that prices are moderating again with the dilution of the base effect, the opportunity to moderate this unnecessary monetary stimulus is lost. As I explained at CNBC on May 29, the supposed positive effects of the buyback program cannot make us ignore the accumulation of risk in sovereign and corporate bonds and the dangerous impact on the financial sector. Draghi, at Least, Warns The president of the ECB does not stop alerting governments about the importance of reforms to drive growth, lower taxes and reduced imbalances, but no one hears. When Draghi warns banks of their weaknesses, they don’t listen either. When he reminds deficit spending governments that monetary policy has an expiration date, they look the other way. It’s party time . Monetary policy is “like Coca-Cola,” said Jens Weidmann , president of the Bundesbank. A drink that stimulates, but has too much sugar and no real healing qualities. The problem of losing this opportunity to moderate monetary policy is that it is highly unlikely that the necessary measures will be taken to correct excesses when they are no longer a debate of economic analyst, but evident to all citizens. Because then, the central bank will be afraid of a financial market correction, after a bubble inflated by its policies. European governments make a huge mistake thinking that prosperity is going to be generated from debt and not from savings. But they make an even bigger mistake if they think that by perpetuating the imbalances, they will prevent a crisis. At the press conference, Draghi said that “nobody knows when or where the next crisis will come: the only sure thing is that it will come.” What Draghi did not explain is that the artificial creation of money without support, well above real economic growth, is always behind those crises. But that is another problem, that will be dealt with by the next president of the Central Bank, who will offer the “new” solution … Yes, you have guessed it: Cut rates and increase liquidity.

27 июня, 11:44

По оценкам Бундесбанка, темпы роста ВВП Германии в текущем году составят 1,9%

Вчера, 26 июня, Бундесбанк опубликовал ежемесячный отчет, в котором отмечается оживленный рост экономики Германии в первом квартале, а также представил свои прогнозы на 2017, 2018 и 2019 гг. Ожидается, что ВВП Германии в текущем году увеличится на 1,9%, а в 2018 и 2019 годах темпы роста экономики страны замедлятся до 1,7% и 1,6% соответственно. В числе основных факторов экономического роста Бундесбанк называет благоприятную ситуацию на рынке труда, при этом сообщается, что в ближайшее время станет заметен дефицит квалифицированных кадров, что может стать предпосылкой для роста зарплат. Кроме того, в ежемесячном отчете сообщается, что соотношение внешнего долга к ВВП может упасть к 2019 году ниже 60% впервые с 2002 года.

27 июня, 09:48

По оценкам Бундесбанка, темпы роста ВВП Германии в текущем году составят 1,9%

Вчера, 26 июня, Бундесбанк опубликовал ежемесячный отчет, в котором отмечается оживленный рост экономики Германии в первом квартале, а также представил свои прогнозы на 2017, 2018 и 2019 гг. Ожидается, что ВВП Германии в текущем году увеличится на 1,9%, а в 2018 и 2019 годах темпы роста экономики страны замедлятся до 1,7% и 1,6% соответственно. В числе основных факторов экономического роста Бундесбанк называет благоприятную ситуацию на рынке труда, при этом сообщается, что в ближайшее время станет заметен дефицит квалифицированных кадров, что может стать предпосылкой для роста зарплат. Кроме того, в ежемесячном отчете сообщается, что соотношение внешнего долга к ВВП может упасть к 2019 году ниже 60% впервые с 2002 года.

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23 июня, 03:35

How Central Banks Intend To Fight CryptoCurrencies

Submitted by Louis Cammarosano of Smaulgld * * * Based on remarks to Bundesbank Policy Symposium in a Speech “Frontiers in Central Banking – Past, Present and Future” contain clues of the battleplan. What if they fail? As cryptocurrencies, which trade outside the banking system attract more capital, governments and central banks are devising ways to try and stop and or control their rise. In “Cryptocurrencies Fiat Killers or Strengtheners” we noted how some Ethereum projects aim to make blockchain assets spendable through the banking system via connecting them to Visa and Mastercard. In “Bill Would Require a Declaration of Digital Currency Holdings at the Border” we noted that the US Congress has tasked the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security and Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection to devise a plan to stop the flows of cryptocurrencies into the country. Last week, at the Bundesbank Policy Symposium, in a speech entitled “Frontiers in Central Banking – Past, Present and Future” Dr Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements gave a speech outlining some ideas on how to best address the challenges that cyrptocurrencies pose to central banks. The Plan After explaining that central banks are creatures born of crisis in that they are designed to come to the rescue when there are financial crisis, Dr. Weidman, noted that market interventions by central banks often provide financial stability, but not with out creating additional risks. Towards the end of his speech, Dr. Weidman remarked that policy intervention may be required, not to address a crisis, but to address technology. Digitalization has the potential to provide financial benefits to the economy, with the risk, however, of disintermediating central banks. As such, the ability of central banks to conduct monetary policy diminishes proportionally to the increase of digitalization. Dr. Weidman dismisses the notion that privately issued digital currencies may eliminate central bank currencies, reasoning that “central banks are better able to deliver price stability than a rigid monetary rule or an algorithm.” Therefore, one consideration might be that the central banks themselves would issue their own digital currencies- something that the central banks of Russia and China are considering. If central banks created digital currencies it would make those holding their liquid assets in the form of central bank digital currencies, the public would have greater protection because “central banks cannot become insolvent.” Dr. Weidman notes that in times of crisis, money holders would withdraw their bank deposits and transfer them into the official digital currency, thereby rapidly withdrawing liquidity from the private banking sector in a digital bank run. Without deposits, Dr. Weidman observes, banks could not make loans. Weidman’s Conclusion “My personal take on this is that central banks should strive to make existing payment systems more efficient and still faster than they already are – instant payment is the buzzword here. I am pretty confident that this will reduce most citizens’ interest in digital currencies.” Discussion 1. Will “instant payment systems” run by central banks render public interest in private cryptocurrencies irrelevant or keep them at the fringe? 2. What if the central banks create instant payment systems, but the public interest in cryptocurrencies does not abate? 3. Will central banks instead create their own digital currencies and in effect kill off the private banking sector and become the banking system in their respective countries with the abilities to create loans, make credit decisions, issue credit and track all transactions?

20 июня, 01:41

Links. High powered money in Greece, ECB transparancy reveales raw power, 50 years ago the Bundesbank combatted trade surpluses

High powered money in Greece. The EU is re-financing 8,5 billion of Greek debt. About 7 billion of this is just trading in one kind of government bonds for another kind of government bonds. Much ado about less than nothing. There is some welcome softening of the terms – but not enough. However: About 1,6 […]

17 июня, 22:00

Бундесбанк: цифровые валюты опасны для банков

Глава Центрального банка Германии Йенс Вайдманн заявил о том, что распространение цифровых валют представляет угрозу для банковской системы и властям необходимо подумать, как "снизить интерес граждан к цифровым валютам".

16 июня, 01:26

Billionaires Buy Gold

Billionaires Invest In Goldby Visual Capitalist There are always lessons that can be learned from the “smart money”. Source: Visual Capitalist Unlike regular investors, billionaire money managers like Ray Dalio and Stan Druckenmiller are professional investors. They have entire institutional teams at their disposal, dive deep into the nuances and complexities of the market, and spend every waking moment of their lives thinking about how to get more from their investments. They want to make money – but they also want to execute on strategies that will protect their wealth and build robust portfolios that can withstand any type of macro event. Family Offices and Billionaires invest in gold In recent months, some of these elite investors have turned to precious metals like gold as a part of their overall investment strategies. In the following infographic from Sprott Physical Bullion Trusts, Visual Capitalist explain why these investors are adding precious metals to their portfolios, the underlying tactics, and the best quotes each investor has on assessing today’s market. Why do these billionaires buy gold? Their cited reasons can basically be summed up with six categories: wealth preservation, store of value, inflation hedge, portfolio diversification, future upside, and investment fundamentals. What Billionaire Investors Are Doing? 1. Lord Jacob RothschildIn late summer 2016, Rothschild announced changes to the RIT Partners portfolio because he was worried about very low interest rates, negative yields, and quantitative easing, saying they are part of the “greatest monetary experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world”. His solution? Buy gold to help preserve wealth, and as a store of value for the future. Read original article on Visual Capitalist   News and Commentary Gold eases after Fed raises interest rate (MarketWatch.com) Fed raises rates, unveils balance sheet cuts in sign of confidence (Reuters.com) ETF rebalancing on Friday - Bumpy ride for junior gold miners (TheGlobeAndMail.com) Oil settles at a 7-month low under $45 a barrel (MarketWatch.com) Gold jumps, but traders see limited upside ahead of the Fed (CNBC.com) Is Gold Undervalued? (MorningStar.co.uk) Bundesbank's Weidmann: Digital Currencies Will Make The Next Crisis Worse (ZeroHedge.com) You won’t believe this stupid new law against Cash and Bitcoin (SovereignMan.com) How the U.S. government tried to convict a golden rooster (QZ.com) What’s next for the pound? Frisby (MoneyWeek.com) Avoid Digital & ETF Gold – Key Gold Storage Must Haves Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 15 Jun: USD 1,260.25, GBP 992.57 & EUR 1,127.67 per ounce14 Jun: USD 1,268.25, GBP 995.83 & EUR 1,131.41 per ounce13 Jun: USD 1,261.30, GBP 992.26 & EUR 1,125.33 per ounce12 Jun: USD 1,269.25, GBP 998.14 & EUR 1,131.28 per ounce09 Jun: USD 1,274.25, GBP 1,001.31 & EUR 1,139.18 per ounce08 Jun: USD 1,284.80, GBP 992.12 & EUR 1,142.70 per ounce07 Jun: USD 1,292.70, GBP 1,001.07 & EUR 1,146.62 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 15 Jun: USD 16.86, GBP 13.19 & EUR 15.10 per ounce14 Jun: USD 16.96, GBP 13.32 & EUR 15.14 per ounce13 Jun: USD 16.82, GBP 13.21 & EUR 15.01 per ounce12 Jun: USD 17.13, GBP 13.50 & EUR 15.27 per ounce09 Jun: USD 17.35, GBP 13.60 & EUR 15.52 per ounce08 Jun: USD 17.60, GBP 13.60 & EUR 15.67 per ounce07 Jun: USD 17.60, GBP 13.64 & EUR 15.71 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Brexit and UK election impact UK housing- In Gold we Trust: Must See Gold Charts and Research- Pension Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Central Banks “Stock Up” on Gold “Amid Uncertainty”- 4 Charts Show Gold May Be Heading Much Higher- Gold in Pounds Surges 1.5% To £1,001/oz – UK Political Turmoil Likely- Gold Prices Steady On UK Election Risk; ECB Meeting and Geopolitical Risk- Gold Breaks 6-Year Downtrend On Safe Haven and 50% Surge In Chinese Demand- Deposit Bail In Risk as Spanish Bank’s Stocks Crash- Terrorist attacks see Gold Stay Firm- Trust in the Bigger Picture, Trust in Gold- Trump, UK and the Middle East drive uncertainty- Is China manipulating the gold market?- Why Sharia Gold and Bitcoin Point to a Change in Views Access Award Winning Daily and Weekly Updates Here

15 июня, 14:42

Is there gold "hype" and is gold an emotional trade?

Is there gold "hype" and is gold an emotional trade? - Very little hype in gold - Sentiment is important in the gold market as is other markets particularly stocks - Article ignores the large body of research showing gold is safe haven asset - Gold may struggle to breach $1,300 in short term - Trading gold and short term speculation is high risk and for professionals - Important for investors to focus on long term fundamentals which remain sound Cycle of Emotions - Hope Phase Now (GoldCore)   Earlier this week Shelley Goldberg , commodities strategist for Roubini Global Economics wrote  about how gold was set to disappoint the ‘gold bulls - again.’ Goldberg argued that we should ‘throw out all the fancy analysis and realize that gold is an emotional trade.’ Aside from yesterday’s little hiccup following the Fed announcement, the gold price has had a great year. Goldberg agrees, ’After breaking through a six-year downtrend line, gold rose last week to its highest level since Nov. 4, and is up an impressive 10.5 percent this year.’ Despite this performance Goldberg argues that we shouldn’t ‘believe the hype’ when it comes to gold. The hype she is referring to seems to be made up of the various op-eds and analysis that argue $1,300/oz is a key barrier for the metal to break through in order to set off on a bull run. A very straightforward presentation of the ‘number of reasons why gold is in demand’ makes up the bulk of Goldberg’s article, yet she concludes ‘with so many valid reasons for gold to rally further, why am I a doubter?  The most rudimentary reason is that gold is also an emotional trade and $1,300 is a round number. One need not be a superstar technical analyst. Just consider that for both psychological and systematic reasons, traders and algorithms like to sell on landmark numbers that also serve as a testing ground for a rally’s sustainability.’ Is the evidence that traders like to trade off ‘landmark numbers’ but analysis says it should go higher evidence that there is ‘hype’? We disagree. Rather we argue that not only is there relatively little hype in the gold market but that it is significantly outshone by all the reasons Goldberg gives herself, for why gold demand is up. Where is the hype? A brief google search of ‘$1,300 gold’ and my own daily experience of reading gold commentary does not bring me to the conclusion that there is hype. Gold has had a great year, but it has also surprised and disappointed many of us for the last couple of years. We are all aware that $1,300 is the next significant level, but most think that it needs to go higher than this in order to get any significant momentum. This is something most seem relatively balanced about. There is a huge amount going on both politically and economically at the moment. As we often conclude so many of these commentaries, there is uncertainty everywhere and that includes gold’s performance. We are not even seeing any ‘hype’ when it comes to physical gold buying. Gold demand is down in the US and we are not in any religious periods that mean manic gold buying as we often see during wedding season in India or New Year in China. The focus on $1,300 reduces the argument for gold down to one thing - people only care about gold because of the price. This isn’t true, partly because of the six very comprehensive and real reasons Goldberg herself gives to the bullish argument to own gold but also thanks to academic evidence, history and sentiment. Why is gold demand up? Goldberg offers six reasons for gold’s popularity at present: Role as an inflation hedge US Dollar performance Interest rates Only commodity showing strength Concerns over overvalued sectors Geopolitical risks pushing safe haven demand These are all very significant reasons for gold’s performance of late. What we tend to see in mainstream commentary regarding gold is the suggestion that when one of these issues begins to ‘improve’ then gold will begin to suffer. This is a very short-term perspective and one which is supported by traders and speculators. It does not take into account long term fundamentals, all of which these six listed factors feed into. The long term fundamentals are not just influenced by these factors but also history, gold’s performance in a portfolio and sentiment. Does the price matter? Of course the price matters, we all like to know what we can sell something for should we need to. But does it matter as much as Goldberg seems to think it does? For much of the time you are holding gold, you should perhaps look at the price in the same way one might view the price of their house. It’s nice to know what its worth but at that moment in time you know you have no plans to sell it and you still need a roof over your head. Short-term the price of gold may well struggle to breach $1,300. For now it is likely to stay between $1,260-$1,280, especially given the recent Fed announcement and various uncertainties in the global economy. This might sound like bad news for an investor who entered the gold market at nearly $2,000/oz in September 2011. But did the investor buy gold because of its US dollar price or because of the long-term fundamentals and gold’s role as a safe haven? Just like when you own a house, you also buy home insurance. So when you invest and have savings you should have a form of financial insurance. Of course, the price of this financial insurance matters, but you will also be considering all the factors that affect your investments both long and short-term, you are not just focused on the price. It’s a safe haven. It’s academic “…there is plenty of global geopolitical risk to popularize haven investments, from the spreading of radical Islamic terrorism, to unpredictable North Korean, Philippine and Russian strongmen, to Brexit and the potential for other European Union members to exit, to Gulf Cooperation Council nations severing ties with Qatar and heightening tensions in the Middle East. Add to that global warming, climate risk and wars over water. Then consider the U.S., where a special counsel has been set up to investigate Russian meddling in the 2016 election and where hopes are fading for a economic bump from President Donald Trump's pro-growth fiscal agenda.” Goldberg seems to think that gold’s role as a safe haven (or form of financial insurance) is only valid due to geopolitical risk. In fact, gold acts as a safe haven against the initial five reasons she lists for gold demand climbing. Back in February, we defined a safe haven as ‘An investment that is expected to retain its value or even increase its value in times of market turbulence. Safe havens are sought after by investors to limit their exposure to losses in the event of market downturns.’ In that same article we drew the reader’s attention to the growing body of research on gold and its financial role. Goldberg appears to be unaware of this academic evidence which appears to turn so called hype and emotional trading into real, analytical evidence for gold’s vital role in a portfolio, regardless of its price performance. The academic research does not define gold as just having one role, for instance ’Hedges and Safe Havens – An Examination of Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold and the Dollar’ by Dr Constantin Gurdgiev and Dr Brian Lucey is an excellent research paper which clearly shows gold’s importance to a diversified portfolio due to gold’s “unique properties as simultaneously a hedge instrument and a safe haven.” As Goldberg points out, sentiment for safe havens are high at present because of the geopolitical sphere. But, she also dismisses gold because it is an emotional investment. In truth, the two cannot really be separated; there is a fine line between sentiment and emotion. If sentiment is high then we can perhaps feel too confident about an investment and we act on that emotion, and vice versa. But Goldberg seems to think that gold investors are unable to keep these feelings in check or that these are invalid reasons for investing at all. Conclusion: What’s wrong with a bit of emotion? “The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit” Ralph Waldo Emerson Like any market, sentiment plays a big role in the price and demand for gold. There is also strong anecdotal evidence of gold demand being driven by emotion - the purchase of jewellery is the most obvious example but also consider demand for gold bars and coins during religious festivals. Additionally when people feel panicked or threatened (see Emerson’s quote) then demand for gold will go up. None of these reasons make gold an investment that feeds of hype and should be ignored. Human emotions and sentiment drive markets, they have throughout history and they will continue to do so. What’s wrong with a bit of emotion? Very few humans can honestly say that some of the biggest life decisions they have made have not been as a result of emotion. The key here is to be aware of when emotion is the only reason you are making an investment decision, rather than considering the other factors such as gold’s role in the wider economy, in your portfolio and its past performance. Is gold an emotional trade? It depends on the trader. To give a blanket statement that ‘gold is also an emotional trade’ is to suggest that everyone who buys and sells gold is blinded by emotion. Goldberg is dismissive of the multitude of factors that affect the decision to buy and hold gold, instead focusing on the price. Investors should always be aware of the risks when investing in gold, but investing in gold means you are considering and insuring yourself against the risks in the wider economy and political sphere. When you take these into account then you are unlikely to be worrying about so-called hype and an arbitrary number picked out of a price chart. News and Commentary Gold eases after Fed raises interest rate (MarketWatch.com) Fed raises rates, unveils balance sheet cuts in sign of confidence (Reuters.com) ETF rebalancing on Friday - Bumpy ride for junior gold miners (TheGlobeAndMail.com) Oil settles at a 7-month low under $45 a barrel (MarketWatch.com) Gold jumps, but traders see limited upside ahead of the Fed (CNBC.com) Is Gold Undervalued? (MorningStar.co.uk) Bundesbank's Weidmann: Digital Currencies Will Make The Next Crisis Worse (ZeroHedge.com) You won’t believe this stupid new law against Cash and Bitcoin (SovereignMan.com) How the U.S. government tried to convict a golden rooster (QZ.com) What’s next for the pound? Frisby (MoneyWeek.com) Avoid Digital & ETF Gold – Key Gold Storage Must Haves Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 15 Jun: USD 1,260.25, GBP 992.57 & EUR 1,127.67 per ounce14 Jun: USD 1,268.25, GBP 995.83 & EUR 1,131.41 per ounce13 Jun: USD 1,261.30, GBP 992.26 & EUR 1,125.33 per ounce12 Jun: USD 1,269.25, GBP 998.14 & EUR 1,131.28 per ounce09 Jun: USD 1,274.25, GBP 1,001.31 & EUR 1,139.18 per ounce08 Jun: USD 1,284.80, GBP 992.12 & EUR 1,142.70 per ounce07 Jun: USD 1,292.70, GBP 1,001.07 & EUR 1,146.62 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 15 Jun: USD 16.86, GBP 13.19 & EUR 15.10 per ounce14 Jun: USD 16.96, GBP 13.32 & EUR 15.14 per ounce13 Jun: USD 16.82, GBP 13.21 & EUR 15.01 per ounce12 Jun: USD 17.13, GBP 13.50 & EUR 15.27 per ounce09 Jun: USD 17.35, GBP 13.60 & EUR 15.52 per ounce08 Jun: USD 17.60, GBP 13.60 & EUR 15.67 per ounce07 Jun: USD 17.60, GBP 13.64 & EUR 15.71 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Brexit and UK election impact UK housing- In Gold we Trust: Must See Gold Charts and Research- Pension Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Central Banks “Stock Up” on Gold “Amid Uncertainty”- 4 Charts Show Gold May Be Heading Much Higher- Gold in Pounds Surges 1.5% To £1,001/oz – UK Political Turmoil Likely- Gold Prices Steady On UK Election Risk; ECB Meeting and Geopolitical Risk- Gold Breaks 6-Year Downtrend On Safe Haven and 50% Surge In Chinese Demand- Deposit Bail In Risk as Spanish Bank’s Stocks Crash- Terrorist attacks see Gold Stay Firm- Trust in the Bigger Picture, Trust in Gold- Trump, UK and the Middle East drive uncertainty- Is China manipulating the gold market?- Why Sharia Gold and Bitcoin Point to a Change in Views Access Award Winning Daily and Weekly Updates Here

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15 июня, 08:44

Бундесбанк: цифровые валюты опасны для банков

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15 августа 2013, 15:20

США отказываются возвращать немецкий золотой запас

Мир теряет веру в доллар как в самую надежную валюту. Волна недоверия поднялась после того, как Немецкий федеральный банк потребовал репатриации огромного количества золота, хранящегося в Федеральной резервной системе США. Некоторые обеспокоены тем, что национальные вклады других стран не будут в безопасности в США. Да и находятся ли они там вообще? Подробности в репортаже корреспондента RT Гаяне Чичакян. Подписывайтесь на RT Russian - http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=rtrussian RT на русском - http://russian.rt.com/ Vkontakte - http://vk.com/rt_russian Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/RTRussian Twitter - http://twitter.com/RT_russian Livejournal - http://rt-russian.livejournal.com/

06 февраля 2013, 00:00

Утечка информации из МВФ: «золотое» мошенничество центральных банков

О GATA и «золотом картеле» Еще в конце ХХ века наиболее въедливые эксперты стали подозревать, что на рынке золота происходит что-то неладное. А именно: даже если жёлтый металл не дешевеет, то цены на него всё равно отстают по темпам роста от динамики цен на многие другие товары мирового рынка. Золото дешевело также на фоне индексов фондовых рынков, цен на недвижимость и т.п. Никаких крупных месторождений золота в это время не было открыто, золотые метеориты на Землю не падали. Заниженные цены на желтый металл больно били по компаниям золотодобывающей промышленности. Представители нескольких компаний этой отрасли решили разобраться в загадке, для чего и создали организацию под названием GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action). В буквальном переводе - «Действие против Золотого Треста». Как следует из названия, учредители GATA подозревали, что на мировом рынке золота действует группа злоумышленников, объединенных в трест, который манипулирует ценами на золото в сторону их занижения. В своих публикациях GATA чаще использовала термин «золотой картель». Постепенно удалось вычислить основных участников этого картеля. Среди них - Казначейство США, Федеральный резервный банк Нью-Йорка (главный из 12 федеральных банков, составляющих ФРС США), Банк Англии, ряд крупнейших коммерческих и инвестиционных банков США и Западной Европы (здесь особо выделяется «Голдман Сакс» - инвестиционный банк с Уолл-стрит). Это – ядро картеля. Время от времени в поле зрения GATA попадали и другие организации, участвовавшие в операциях картеля. В том числе центральные банки некоторых стран.  1990-е годы были периодом наибольшей активности США на мировых рынках активов. Проще говоря, американцы организовывали приватизации государственных предприятий по всему миру (в том числе в России), а для таких операций нужен был сильный доллар. Финансовые аналитики и спекулянты прекрасно знают простое правило: чем ниже цена на золото, тем крепче доллар. Самый простой и дешевый способ укрепить доллар – «прижать» цену на «желтый металл», который явно и неявно выступает конкурентом этой резервной валюты. Однако чтобы «прижать» цену, надо обеспечить повышенное предложение этого металла на мировом рынке. У тех, кто хотел сыграть на «понижение» золота, взоры обратились к несметным запасам золота, сосредоточенным в подвалах казначейств и центральных банков. Эти запасы лежали там без движения с тех пор, как в 1970-е гг. рухнула Бреттон-Вудская валютно-финансовая система. В новой Ямайской валютно-финансовой системе золото перестало быть деньгами, оно было объявлено одним из биржевых товаров – таким как нефть, пшеница или бананы. Версия о золотых манипуляциях центральных банков Как можно использовать это золото для манипуляций ценами?  Первое и главное условие сводится к тому, чтобы полностью засекретить официальные запасы желтого металла и все операции денежных властей с ними. Еще более повысить независимый статус центральных банков, для того чтобы «народные избранники», органы финансового контроля и прочие любопытствующие элементы не совали свои носы в дела этих институтов. Не допускать государственных аудиторов до «золотых закромов». В США, например, Главное контрольное управление (Счётная палата Конгресса) последний раз посещало главное хранилище официального золотого запаса США Форт Ноксболее 60 лет назад.  Далее под завесой секретности можно начинать операции с золотом. Однако не продавать его, а передавать разным частным структурам «на время», оформляя эти операции как кредиты или лизинг желтого металла. А вместо золотых слитков оставлять в хранилищах бумажки, которые являются с бухгалтерско-юридической точки зрения «требованиями», «расписками», «сертификатами» и т.п. То есть золото на балансе центрального банка сохраняется, только оно имеет не металлическую, а виртуально-бумажную (или даже электронную) форму. А «народу» это знать не обязательно. Если в эти «золотые аферы» втянуть десяток-другой центральных банков, то каждый год на рынок можно выкидывать не одну сотню тонн драгоценного металла и сбивать на него цену.  Эксперты (в том числе эксперты GATA) находили многочисленные подтверждения тому, что все это не вымысел, а результат преступного сговора центральных банков с частными банкирами и спекулянтами. И тут сразу возникают вопросы: кому центральные банки передавали золото? Было ли это золото возвращено назад в сейфы центральных банков? Известны ли эти махинации законодателям? Сколько на сегодняшний день реально осталось физического золота в хранилищах центральных банков (и государственных казначейств)? Отметим, что отдельные попытки разобраться в том, что представляют собой официальные золотые запасы, насколько официальная статистика золота отражает истинное положение дел, кто и как управляет официальным золотым запасом, предпринимались парламентариями, политиками, общественными активистами в разных странах. Например, в США такие попытки регулярно предпринимал член Конгресса США Рон Пол. Регулярные запросы в разные инстанции делала также GATA.  Денежные власти предпочитали отмалчиваться. Или же ответы были крайне лаконичными и сводились к тому, что «золотой запас страны находится в неприкосновенности». Такую же позицию занимали на протяжении последних 15 лет (с тех пор, как начались разговоры о «золотом картеле») и международные финансовые организации: Банк международных расчетов (который, кстати, активно занимается операциями с желтым металлом и был заподозрен в участии в «золотом картеле»), Всемирный банк, Международный валютный фонд (1).  Утечка информации из МВФ И вот последняя новость в этой области. Речь идет о материале, размещенном на сайте GATA в декабре 2012 года (2). Это полученное одним из экспертов GATA секретное исследование Международного валютного фонда 13-летней давности. Оно касается мирового рынка золота и роли центральных банков в операциях на этом рынке в 1999 году. Поскольку оно секретное, то его автор позволяет себе писать полную правду об операциях центральных банков.  «Информация о рынке золота неоднородна», – говорится в исследовании. «Для транзакций характерна высокая степень секретности. Наряду с относительно небольшим количеством открытых торгов на биржах, продажи золота представляют собой приватные внебиржевые сделки, о таких операциях сообщается скупо. … Официальные данные о ссудах в золоте практически отсутствуют». Вот ключевые факты и цифры из этого материала МВФ. В 1999 годуболее 80 центральных банков ссудили 15 процентов официальных золотых запасов рынку (имеется в виду величина непогашенных обязательств по золотым кредитам). В числе центральных банков, предоставлявших ссуды в золоте, были Бундесбанк Германии, Швейцарский национальный банк, Банк Англии, Резервный банк Австралии и центральные банки Австрии, Португалии и Венесуэлы. В исследовании подтверждается, что центральные банки играли на рынке золота на «понижение»: «…высокая степень мобилизации резервов центробанка через кредитные операции в золоте оказала понижающее влияние на наличную цену золота, поскольку перекредитуемое золото обычно связано с продажами золота на наличном рынке». Далее в исследовании МВФ говорится, что «кредитование в золоте заставило центробанки проявлять активность на рынке производных финансовых инструментов золота, где участвуют банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами и производители золота, продавая золото через форвардные сделки и опционы. В свою очередь, банки по операциям с драгоценными металлами приложили все усилия для защиты и укрепления долгосрочных отношений с центральными банками». Вот еще выдержка из документа МВФ: «Доля промышленно развитых стран на всём рынке официального кредитования в золоте выросла с 33 процентов в конце 1995 года до 46 процентов к концу 1998 года, поскольку некоторые центральные банки промышленных стран повысили уровень кредитования; в то же время на рынке появились новые кредиторы, в частности Бундесбанк и Швейцарский национальный банк». А вот комментарий эксперта GATA, разместившего данный материал:«При столь значительном количестве центральных банков, секретно предоставляющих ссуды в золоте тем финансовым организациям, чей основной талант, как можно было видеть в последнее время, состоит в рыночных махинациях, кто станет отрицать, кроме обычных агентов дезинформации, что рынком золота манипулируют именно для того, чтобы не позволить всему миру пользоваться свободными рынками?» 2013 год: ждём новых «золотых» скандалов и «золотых» сенсаций Раскрытия страшной тайны золота ждут уже много лет. Ещё в 2004 году Лондонский банк Ротшильдов заявил о своем выходе из «золотого фиксинга» - процедуры ежедневного определения в узком кругу цены на жёлтый металл в лондонском Сити. Тем самым Ротшильды заявили миру, что они выходят из золотого бизнеса, которым занимались на протяжении двух столетий. Однако это – всего лишь эффектный жест. Из золотого бизнеса они не ушли, а продолжили заниматься им через структуры с другими вывесками. Чувствуя угрозу надвигающегося скандала с разоблачениями «золотого картеля», эти олигархические круги решили своевременно отойти от эпицентра возможного взрыва…  Возбуждение общественности и политиков по поводу официальных запасов золота резко обострилось в 2012 году. Выяснилось, что на мировом рынке активно идет торговля фальшивым золотом в виде вольфрамовых позолоченных слитков (хотя специалистам об этом стало известно еще в 2004 году, трубить об этом мошенничестве мировые СМИ начали только в 2012 году). Возникли подозрения, что в подвалах центральных банков и казначейств находятся груды вольфрама. Рон Пол добился проведения выборочной проверки брусков металла в подвалах Форт-Нокс и Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка. Германия потребовала от США вернуть золото из своего официального запаса (Бундесбанк), которое хранилось в подвалах ФРБ Нью-Йорка, но встретила глухое сопротивление со стороны казначейства и ФРС США. Кончилось это тем, что председатель Федерального резерва Бен Бернанке заявил, что недавний ураган Сэнди… «уничтожил» немецкое золото. Ничего лучшего он придумать не смог. Все это лишь подкрепило мнение тех, кто давно обвиняет ФРС и другие центральные банки в мошенничестве с золотом.  Думаю, что в 2013 г. тема золота центральных банков станет еще более горячей. Например, все с нетерпением ждут обнародования результатов выборочной физической проверки слитков золота из закромов Казначейства США. Власти обещали сообщить об этом в начале 2013 года. От Германии все напряженно ожидают реакции на заявление Бернанке о таинственном исчезновении немецкого золота.  Появились вопросы и к Банку международных расчетов (БМР), активно практикующему коммерческие операции с желтым металлом - и собственным, и тем, который центральные банки предоставляют БМР в виде депозитов или кредитов. Отчётность БМР об этих операциях крайне лаконична и не даёт представления о деталях сделок, их контрагентах и конечных бенефициарах.  Международный валютный фонд будет продолжать настойчиво требовать от Китая раскрытия истинной информации об официальном золотом запасе. В 2009 г. Народный банк Китая (НБК) сообщил, что его золотые запасы увеличились сразу на 76% и составили 1054 тонны. С тех пор официальные цифры золотого запаса НБК не менялись. Мало кто верит в то, что эти цифры отражают реальное положение дел. Считается, что денежные власти Китая сильно занижают цифры, тайно переводя часть своих несметных валютных резервов в желтый металл. В Конгрессе США ожидается окончательное решение вопроса о том, будет ли ФРС подвергнута серьезному аудиту - впервые за век ее существования. Если такой аудит всё-таки состоится, то полной проверке должны подвергнуться все операции Федерального резерва с золотом. Почти все серьезные эксперты ждут от этой проверки сенсационных разоблачений.  (1) Подробнее о манипуляциях «золотого картеля» см.: В.Ю. Катасонов. Золото в экономике и политике России. – М.: Анкил, 2009, с. 57-63.  (2) «IMF study in 1999 found 80 central banks lending 15% of official gold reserves». December 9, 2012 (http://www.gata.org/files/IMFGoldLendingFullStudy1999.pdf)