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24 декабря 2017, 01:00

Are Higher Uranium Prices Around The Corner?

The announcement made by uranium giant Cameco in November  that it’s suspending operations at its flagship McArthur River mine in northern Saskatchewan and surprisingly deep three-year cuts by Kazakhstan’s state-owned Kazatomprom  provide a "step change" for uranium prices says a new report on the sector from Cantor Fitzgerald equity research. On Monday, the world largest producer of uranium, surprised the beleaguered market with a larger than expected cut to production of its own. Two weeks ago, Kazakhstan’s state-owned…

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21 декабря 2017, 07:01

Cameco требует от TEPCO около 682 млн долларов за расторжение контракта на поставку природного урана

Канадская компания "Cameco" требует от японской TEPCO 681,9 миллионов долларов в связи с досрочным расторжением последней контракта на поставку природного урана для нужд своих атомных станций. TEPCO уведомила канадских партнёров о прекращении действия контракта в январе 2017 года в связи с форс-мажором. В ответ "Cameco" охарактеризовала действия TEPCO как попытку...

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12 декабря 2017, 07:05

Here It Is...Team Macro Man's 2018 Top Trades

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Here it is folks, the 1st annual Team Macro Man Top Trade Ideas for 2018. I love the diversity in the ideas here. Nobody jumped on the short 10y UST bandwagon with Goldman and Apollo….and nobody joined the quant folks at JP Morgan in suggesting trades that are a great conversation starters with the ladies at the Columbia University physics department holiday party. In fact, the ideas are so diverse it is tough to pick out any common themes, but that shouldn’t be too surprising when the most dominant theme of 2017 was probably “low vol”. Another dominant global theme this year has been “synchronized global growth,” which is now leading many strategists to predict widespread monetary tightening in 2018.  The “morning in Europe” and, I’ll add myself, the potential “morning in Japan” themes could be big game changers in 2018. Wages and inflation haven’t picked up much, but if they do, there is more to go for asset markets, FX and rates in both regions. Lastly in the US, despite what I have written here about inflation and curve-flatness, I have a tough time envisioning a increased pace of tightening by the Fed that would cause a significant strengthening of USD, which points to more of the same next year--risk on, flattening, low vol.  Equity markets may have gotten a bit ahead of themselves with the tax reform rally, but that will be a distant memory by next December. This type of “forecasting” begs to be shown up in short order because we simply don’t have a crystal ball that tells us what surprises the world will throw at us in the next twelve months. But what we really want to get at here is not so much the trades but the themes--what will be the game-changers? What is the market not expecting? Keep that in mind before opening the bomb bay doors in the comment section.  With that, take it away TMM! TMM #1: Short JPY vs. g10 basketLong term solution for Japanese debt given growth outlook (it will go up but 10% real ain't likely) is to run inflation hot. Near term global growth picking up and hence global neutral rates going up. Locally growth picking up. BOJ will not move short rates. They might let the curve go. Rates differentials, inflation, deficit and lack of other solutions means they likely let the currency go.TMM #2: Buy IBov/EWZ volI like Ibov (and EWZ) for 2018 but think the vol, is very low in historical terms, specially for a election year. TMM #3: Receive 2y China RatesThere’s no doubt the deleveraging effort is sincere, and no doubt that the debt burden will go up if they force corporates and SOE’s to refinance at higher rates. If the government want a lower debt burden, they need to pull rates down and clamp down on lending. By phasing out guaranteed wealth management products, they drive savers into the arms of government bonds. Buy 2y CGB’s if onshore – rec 2y NDIRS if not. Enter Target 2.75% 2y yields. Stop at 4.50%.TMM #4: Long GE, ATM covered writes (with roll-up) In the eventuality it rallies...much.  Dividend IS covered and jumping on any premium should be better than best Utility trade.TMM #5: Short all manner of Aussie coal/housing retail with ratio spreads or credit spreads.  Not looking for BIG payoff, but "safe" payoff.  TMM #6:  Short EUR  better late than never. ;)TMM #7: Buy Uranium (URA)  Two dominant suppliers co-ordinating major supply cuts to help balance the market, with the Cameco CEO of literally saying “we can actually buy uranium cheaper than we can produce it.”   The industry which has been battered since the 2011 peak (URA was down 80-90% at its bottom) and the cuts were timed just before the 2018-2020 bulge in the long-term utility contract rolls.  Chance for a huge sentiment change with investors, especially if the hereto disciplined utilities that have (rightly) been waiting to renew contracts worry about the market being under-supplied and race each other to renew their contracts.  (see 2006-07 for the last time that happened).TMM #8:  Buy Greece (GREK) or Greek Banks (ALBKY/etc) Everyone's been burned and the French solved the IMF/German impasse - “The Eurogroup formally agreed to a longer-term French plan to link the scale of Greek bond repayments to the country’s economic growth…”.  This means a bunch of catalysts  - banks passing stress tests, exiting the bailout, issuing debt in the public markets, maybe even an Syriza loss in an election - for a country (GDP fell by more than US great depression) and market that's looked at as dead.TMM #9: Buy Argentina EquitiesTeam Macri, baby!   If Macri is Reagan, and Sturzenegger is Volker, where are Argentinean equity prices going?  What about Real Estate and Private Equity?TMM #10: Short TSLATMM #11: Short S&P“A Brisk Trip back to 1854” (quick, to the point...I like it. --ed)TMM #12: buy XOP  unloved, under-owned, misunderstood, pegged to WTI at a perceived ceiling of $50 (which looks more like the floor now), grossly undervalued at current underlying commodity price level. Cuts, cuts, cuts... Biggest beneficiary of upcoming tax cuts for two reasons: direct - 15% haircut off of its current corp tax, indirect - more disposable income in consumers' pockets will translate into longer miles driven and therefore higher demand for gasoline. OPEC output cuts extension is going to drive hungry oil customers around the world towards US producers. Asia is putting huge orders in for US shale and Gulf of Mexico oil.TMM #13: Short Gold/short USD/JPY spread trade TMM #14: Buy EURCHFIt's the only macro trade I've stayed long (via options) for over 4 months now, so it's got that going for it. Thesis is "Morning in Europe" and global growth draws out Swiss capital, pension funds start lifting hedges, etc.. TMM #15: Sell MXN, buy a basket of high yield EMFX: ARS, BRL, RUB Political risk, NAFTA risk, energy prices and high real rates conspire to further subdue investment, consumption and growth in Mexico, while positive local dynamics, strong macro trends and flat-to-higher oil prices support the high-yielders.TMM #16: long USDTWD (or SGD)Betting on slower global growth, particularly in ChinaTMM #17: Long USD/CADIn USD-CAD For expiry One year  Buy 1.2600 USD Calls Sell 1.3400 USD  Calls Approx cost 244 CAD points both in equal amounts. TMM #18: Long AUDNZD A way to express re-flation trade. Terms of trade between the two countries express a commodities skew towards metals & energy - In addition, for the kiwi leg, they basically have a socialist leader who thinks their current low unemployment is still too high and wants a weaker NZD TMM #19: Buy/pay 5s10s breakeven steepener  Equilibrium breakeven spread even in the recent low inflation rate environment has been ~50bps, you can pick up a steepener these days with less than 10bps downside before the breakeven spread becomes inverted for ~40bps upside as a way to capture risks of duration sell-off in the long endTMM #20: Short US High Yield If rates go higher, you win, if Vol goes higher you win, if growth slows down you win. Of course you lose if 2018 is a repeat of 2017 but the carry is a small price to pay. Though it is possible that spreads tighten more and the rate movement does not offset all of the gain.

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12 декабря 2017, 05:08

Казатомпром увеличивает долю участия в совместном предприятии «Инкай»

АО «НАК «Казатомпром» (далее - Казатомпром) и корпорация «Cameco» (далее - Cameco) сегодня сообщили о завершении сделки по реструктуризации ТОО «СП «Инкай» (далее - Инкай). На торжественной церемонии в Лондоне Председатель Правления Казатомпрома Галымжан Пирматов и Президент – Главный исполнительный директор Cameco Тим Гитцел подписали документы о реструктуризации, обозначенной в...

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06 декабря 2017, 00:26

Why Uranium Miners' Glow Is Temporary

Shares of Cameco and other miners soared after Kazakhstan said it would cut back exports of uranium, but it may take years to balance the market.

05 декабря 2017, 16:57

Cameco (CCJ) in Focus: Stock Moves 13% Higher

Cameco (CCJ) was a big mover last session, as the company saw its shares rise nearly 13% on the day.

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21 ноября 2017, 11:52

Событийное повышение мировых цен на уран не решит проблем забайкальского ППГХО

Временное закрытие крупнейшего уранового рудника McArthur River канадской горнорудной компании Cameco привело к росту цен на природный уран на 13,5% — до 23 долларов за фунт, что может в краткосрочной перспективе снизить избыток урана на рынке, но не решит глобальных проблем производителей этого металла, которые касаются и работающего в Забайкальском...

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17 ноября 2017, 21:50

Период полупрофицита // Цены на уран пошли вверх после закрытия рудника в Канаде

Временное закрытие крупнейшего уранового рудника McArthur River канадской Cameco оживило спрос на сырье и привело к росту спотовых котировок на природный уран на 13,5%, до $23 за фунт. После аварии на АЭС «Фукусима-1» в 2011 году рынок урана попал в фазу хронического профицита, цены держатся на крайне низких уровнях, незначительно поднимаясь лишь на заявлениях о сокращении добычи или закрытии месторождений. В уранодобывающей отрасли РФ полагают, что приостановка McArthur River снизит текущий профицит урана, но в среднесрочной перспективе избыток предложения сохранится.

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09 ноября 2017, 22:25

Forget B.T.F.D., It's Time To B.U.T.T.

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, I haven’t written about it much, but I have long been a closet uranium bull. Yeah, maybe I wrote one piece - Somewhere Cheap to Hide, but it’s not like I have been pounding the table on the idea. Although it has been obvious for everyone to see that the industry could not continue operating with the price of the commodity trading below the cost of production, the problem has been that no one wanted to cut. So even though it was illogical, everyone kept producing at negative cash flows, desperately hoping the other guy would tap out first. In the meantime, the price of the commodity, and by extension, uranium producers’ stock prices, kept sagging. And why buy the stock of some negative cash flowing uranium company when the FANG stocks were ripping higher a couple of percent every day? So investors have continued to ignore these dirt cheap uranium names. But their negligence will be our gain. Take the time to read my piece linked above. All the arguments still apply, the only thing we have been missing is a catalyst. Well, guess what happened last night? Cameco finally cried Uncle. Although it is sad for the workers, Cameco took a giant step towards bringing the uranium market back into balance with the shutting down of two of their northern Saskatchewan mines. From the Saskatoon StarPhoenix: Cameco Corp.’s decision to temporarily shut down two uranium operations in northern Saskatchewan, leaving around 845 people without work for at least 10 months, is shocking, according to the head of the union representing the company’s employees.   The Saskatoon-based company attributed its decision to stop production at the McArthur River mine and Key Lake mill to “unsustainably” low prices, but United Steelworkers Local 8914 interim president Denis O’Hara said workers were blindsided.   “Employees on site would be in total shock as well, because there was no indication that this was going to happen, especially to the extent of 10 months,” O’Hara said, adding that the two facilities 550 kilometres north of Saskatoon spent much of the summer shut down.   Cameco told its employees late Wednesday afternoon that 210 workers will be retained once the mine and mill are in a “safe shutdown state” by the end of January, but additional temporary layoffs could follow as it reviews corporate support for the idled operations.   “There’s just today too much uranium out there,” Cameco President and CEO Tim Gitzel said in an interview Wednesday evening, hours after what he described as “sombre” meetings at the two affected sites.   “We didn’t think adding to that was helpful. We have a good inventory of uranium at Cameco that can sustain us that we can put into profitable contracts… We can actually buy uranium cheaper than we can produce it.” Stop and read that last quote again. “We can actually buy uranium cheaper than we can produce it.” That’s the sort of Graham-Dodd deep value play that has been so unbelievably difficult to find since the advent of worldwide quantitative easing. Yet, here it is, lying right in front of us. Yeah, it’s an ugly industry, with terrible looking fundamentals - but that’s why it is SO CHEAP. If it wasn’t scary looking, it wouldn’t be an opportunity. I want to get today’s post out before the open, so I am going to rely on some other people to make the rest of my point for me. Let’s start with my mysterious uranium mine owning pal who I referenced in my previous article. When this news hit last night, I sent him a note to ask his opinion. If there is not already an acronym called BUTT (…back up the truck…) then this is certainly an opportune time to introduce it. Imagine OPEC saying we decided to take 15 million BOP off the table - and could actually do it! It’s funny because all of that stuff I wrote you a few months back is probably pretty accurate but you get more cautious as the pain goes on. To get a sense of the extent of these cuts, I have started following John Quakes who describes himself as a “retired earth science researcher, professor, analyst, writer, trekker, and explorer. Investing now in imminent uranium bull market.” John has posted some terrific data, and for those who want to know more about uranium, I highly suggest you give him a follow. Here’s some of his quality posts: It’s obvious that those who really understand the uranium industry view this Cameco announcement as a BIG DEAL. We are going to rip higher on the open, but it might be one of those situations where you have to bite your lip and buy it anyway. How to play it The go-to instrument for most uranium bulls is the Global X Uranium ETF - symbol URA. After a brief period of excitement following Trump’s election where the ETF rallied 50% in a heartbeat, it has since sagged back down the lows. With this new supply development, we could easily follow the same sort of rally. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see this ETF pushing back up to $20 in the coming months. Personally, I also like owning the actual commodity. Spot uranium is trading at a wicked discount to the forward swap contracts, so in my mind, I am buying an asset for cents on the dollar. Now you can’t just run out and buy uranium (remember all the problems Doc Brown had securing his supply), so I prefer the Uranium Participation Closed End Fund (U CN Equity): Either way, the mistake will be to sell too soon. Longer term picture A couple of months back, my uranium mine owning pal sent me this long note sketching out his thoughts about the industry. I had been keeping it in reserve, waiting for the technical situation to change in the uranium market before publishing this piece. Well, the time is here, so I am including his thoughts from earlier in the summer: In addition to the positives regarding Kazahk supply and the Paladin Energy denouement that we already touched on earlier, you can see from the tenor of the articles that growth is still ongoing in nuclear with China going gangbusters and the US turning at least neutral, if not actually cheerleading. The U price rally we had earlier this year was, in my mind, a result of the supply side of the equation having done its bit to restore balance to the market. This included the big players like Cameco and the Kazahks. The market (ie the equity market) liked this because it’s sort of Economics 101 in the free market playbook and, as you noted in the previous piece, it seems irrational and unsustainable when even the lowest cost guys in a market cannot make any money.   It would also seem short sighted in an industry where security of supply should be at least a medium term concern and where vertical integration would not be an illogical strategy that the users of uranium (ie the utilities) would not be at least a little interested in the health of the production base. However, this has really never been the case - at least for the last 35 or so years - and the reason for that is that during most of this period it has been a buyer’s market punctuated only by short spikes (like 1996-7 and 2005-7) where supply and price concerns were hot button topics. Abundant secondary supplies played a huge role in this as did the proliferation of potential supply when these concerns surfaced (…to whit, we went from under ten U companies in 2003 to over 700 in 2007…). Capitalism seemed to work and there seemed to be lots of future projects if required in the longer term buffered by the view that governments would help if need be in the interim with stockpiles.   This continues to be the thinking of the western utilities today and for now you cannot fault them for pursuing a strategy that is working. If you are a nuclear fuel buyer for a capitalist or western world utility, you do not earn your annual bonus for visionary thinking about security of supply or “buying low” but you could face job insecurity if you are out of whack with the herd. Think mutual fund managers and closet indexing and it’s the same phenomena.   The new factor in the market now - and I have included a number of articles that are on point - is that the demand side is now part of the industry’s price problem with the commitment to nuclear of stalwart countries Korea and France being called into question. This follows the Germans, Swiss etc where the optics are all that somehow nuclear is a sunset industry post Fukushima and with the rise of renewables. Forget the fact that even if countries like Korea can ‘phase out’ nuclear, they own plants with multi decade lives and they will have significant demand for uranium for long after an iconic mine like Cigar Lake will be exhausted (which is 2027 according to its owners). So you essentially have a lot of bad branding and headline risk because all of the good news is in places like China, Russia, India, and the UAE and all of the bad news (or apparent bad news) is in places in the comfort zone of coverage for western media. That same media has also fully embraced Climate Change and our EV future so in places like Ontario you don’t read much about how we actually keep the lights on or, if you do, you get a bit of a distorted view.   I am a big fan of the Gridwatch site (and their app) which shows you power generation and sources in virtual real time (see attached). There is no editorial bias in this as it’s just data. So this afternoon, as happens on most days, almost all of our power here in Ontario is from baseload nuclear and hydro with solar making a diminimus contribution as usual. However, if we tracked media coverage or spin from politicians, my guess is the coverage ratio would be reversed with 90% devoted to solar, renewables, Elon Musk etc. The politicians in western countries have by and large fully drunk the Kool-Aid so maybe the inflection point for all of this will happen when there are actual political consequences for bad energy policy decision making. I think we are close to seeing this in Australia as energy is a huge hot button issue there right now and likely will be front and center in the next Federal election.   The epicenter though may be the Aussie State of South Australia (home of the huge Olympic Dam copper-uranium mine) where the lights actually did go out for days recently due to dumb green energy targets that saw the backup coal generation permanently closed. It’s a left-leaning State though so their solution was double down on stuff that wasn’t working and call Elon who is going to build them a big giant back-up battery in 100 days or it’s supposedly free. The contrarian in me says we could be approaching Peak Musk / Tesla but we’ll know soon enough. Maybe it will also mark the bottom in nuclear as industry sentiment is as poor as I have ever seen it with most of us in that Don Coxe place where we are not sure if it will ever turn. Kazatomprom and Cameco team up? And even before that note, one of my readers asked what my pal thought about the rumours surrounding Kazatomprom’s managing of supply. He responded: He is right on the money there and perceptive as to what the rumblings from Kazatomprom will do if implemented. These moves are not secret - for example, they spoke at a Toronto conference in April on this topic, albeit a bit vaguely - . and they have initiated moves to make this happen on the marketing side beginning next year so that they just don’t sell everything spot. This was apparently legislatively required until now.   This is part of a bigger plan whereby Kazatomprom will either IPO or have some public visibility next year. Unlike Aramco or OPEC, the Kazahks could create a meaningful cartel with the tacit assistance from a couple of other real players - say Cameco - so the bet would be that U prices won’t be $20/lb when this happens. They are the 800 pound gorilla on the supply side at the moment and have been overproducing into a market that was oversupplied. A bull story that is not reliant on QE Add all of this together, and for me, I get a bull story that is not reliant on every increasing liquidity from Central Bank quantitative easing programs. This is an honest to goodness cheap asset that finally has a catalyst. Call me naive to believe the market will finally appreciate this sort of play. *  *  * Japanese Nikkei ominious price action Quick note to highlight last night’s Japanese Nikkei stock market action. When I went to bed, the Nikkei futures were screaming higher, ticking up 2%. When I woke up, the rally had collapsed and the stocks closed on the lows. I have been a big Japanese Nikkei bull, but this is OMINOUS price action. Time to head to the sidelines… I have to wonder, did the BoJ finally run out of blue tickets?

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03 ноября 2017, 15:27

Obama Admin Lied; New Memos Reveal Uranium One Exports To "Europe And Asia" Via Canada

As the mainstream media continues to obsess over $100,000 worth Facebook ads allegedly purchased by Russian spies in 2016 seeking to throw the presidential election, behind the scenes, far removed from the sight of CNN and MSNBC, the Uranium One scandal, in which the Obama administration approved a deal that handed a Russian-controlled corporation 20% of America's uranium reserves despite the existence of an FBI investigation into ongoing illegal bribery, extortion and money laundering schemes, is slowly spiraling out of control...despite CNN's continued ignorance of the topic. By now we're sure that most of our readers are well aware that Obama's approval of the Uranium One deal seemingly landed the Clinton Foundation some $145 million in donations and a $500,000 speaking gig for former President Bill Clinton from a very thankful Russian bank...if not, here are a couple of recent posts on the topic as a recap: FBI Uncovered Russian Bribery Plot Before Obama Approved Uranium One Deal, Netting Clintons Millions Emails Reveal Bill Clinton Met With Vladimir Putin Just Before Uranium One Deal FBI Informant "Threatened" After Offering Details Linking Clinton Foundation To Russian Bribery Case That said, one thing that you probably don't know yet, primarily because of the Obama administration's proactive attempt conceal such information, is that despite repeated assurances from Congress and Obama's Nuclear Regulatory Commission that U.S. uranium reserves wouldn't leave U.S. shores, it, in fact, did. As The Hill points out today, assurances that U.S. uranium would not be exported to foreign countries was a key sticking point when Congress reviewed the deal back in 2010.  As such, repeated assurances were provided that such exports would never occur...here are just a couple of examples of those assurances: “No uranium produced at either facility may be exported,” the NRC declared in a November 2010 press release that announced that ARMZ, a subsidiary of the Russian-owned Rosatom, had been approved to take ownership of the Uranium One mining firm and its American assets.   A year later, the nuclear regulator repeated the assurance in a letter to Sen. John Barrasso, a Wyoming Republican in whose state Uranium One operated mines.   “Neither Uranium One Inc. nor AMRZ holds a specific NRC export license. In order to export uranium from the United States, Uranium One Inc. or ARMZ would need to apply for an obtain a specific NRC license authorizing the exports of uranium for use in reactor fuel,” then-NRC Chairman Gregory Jaczko wrote Barrasso.   The NRC never issued an export license to the Russian firm, a fact so engrained in the narrative of the Uranium One controversy that it showed up in The Washington Post’s official fact-checker site this week. “We have noted repeatedly that extracted uranium could not be exported by Russia without a license, which Rosatom does not have,” The Post reported on Monday, linking to the 2011 Barrasso letter. That said, new memos obtained by The Hill now confirm that, in fact, Uranium One yellowcake did manage to escape U.S. shores repeatedly between 2012 - 2014. Yet NRC memos reviewed by The Hill shows that it did approve the shipment of yellowcake uranium — the raw material used to make nuclear fuel and weapons — from the Russian-owned mines in the United States to Canada in 2012 through a third party. Later, the Obama administration approved some of that uranium going all the way to Europe, government documents show.   NRC officials said they could not disclose the total amount of uranium that Uranium One exported because the information is proprietary. They did, however, say that the shipments only lasted from 2012 to 2014 and that they are unaware of any exports since then.   NRC officials told The Hill that Uranium One exports flowed from Wyoming to Canada and on to Europe between 2012 through 2014, and the approval involved a process with multiple agencies. Of course, given his repeated assurances to the contrary, Obama couldn't simply allow Uranium One to ship uranium to the nearest port for export, so he instead signed a waiver allowing a Kentucky trucking company to carry the product across the Canadian border and then approved export from Canada to Europe. Rather than give Rosatom a direct export license — which would have raised red flags inside a Congress already suspicious of the deal — the NRC in 2012 authorized an amendment to an existing export license for a Paducah, Ky.,-based trucking firm called RSB Logistics Services Inc. to simply add Uranium One to the list of clients whose uranium it could move to Canada.   The license, reviewed by The Hill, is dated March 16, 2012, and it increased the amount of uranium ore concentrate that RSB Logistics could ship to the Cameco Corp. plant in Ontario from 7,500,000 kilograms to 12,000,000 kilograms and added Uranium One to the “other parties to Export.”   The move escaped notice in Congress. And while it will be dismissed by the Left as a convenient attempt for Republicans to change the "Russian collusion" narrative, Senator Chuck Grassley and others are finally starting to press for a special counsel to investigate what is clearly a scandal that is far more pervasive than anyone originally thought. “The more that surfaces about this deal, the more questions it raises," Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said in a statement released after this story was published. Grassley, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has launched an investigation into Uranium One.   "It now appears that despite pledges to the contrary, U.S. uranium made its way overseas as a part of the Uranium One deal," Grassley said in the statement. "What’s more disturbing, those transactions were apparently made possible by various Obama Administration agencies while the Democrat-controlled Congress turned a blind eye.   “Americans deserve assurances that political influence was not a factor in all this. I’m increasingly convinced that a special counsel — someone with no prior involvement in any of these deals — should shine a light on this ordeal and get answers for the American people.” So, is this what Obama meant when he told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to let Putin know that he would "have more flexibility" after the 2012 election?

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11 октября 2017, 15:31

Why You Shouldn't Bet Against Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Stock

Cameco Corporation (CCJ) could be an interesting play for investors as it is seeing solid earnings estimate revision in addition to having a robust industry rank.

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