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28 сентября, 15:28

"There's A Real Problem Here" - Did Fed's Plosser Just Admit Trump Is Right About Yellen?

Former Philly Fed President Charles Plosser got a lot off his chest this morning during a Bloomberg TV interview. Decrying that central bankers "wring their hands all the time," Plosser noted that The Fed was very "concerned about credibility," and was "pretty good at conjuring up reasons not to act." His mutinous discussion then concluded, sounding very Trumpian, by noting that The Fed "shouldn't be afraid a recession might come," exclaiming "there's a real problem here" with The Fed. Additional headlines include: *PLOSSER: FED'S `IN A VERY DIFFICULT POSITION' *PLOSSER: `THERE'S A REAL PROBLEM HERE' WITH FED *PLOSSER: FED IS VERY CONCERNED ABOUT CREDIBILITY *PLOSSER: CENTRAL BANKERS `WRING THEIR HANDS ALL THE TIME' *PLOSSER: THERE'S FED DISSENT BECAUSE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY *PLOSSER: `DISSENT IS HELPFUL' FOR FED *PLOSSER SAYS FED PRETTY GOOD AT CONJURING UP REASONS NOT TO ACT *PLOSSER SAYS FED SHOULDN'T BE AFRAID RECESSION MIGHT COME *PLOSSER: WISHES FED ‘WOULD GET ON WITH IT’ AND RAISE RATES *PLOSSER: NOVEMBER FED MEETING ‘NOT A DEAD MEETING BY ANY MEANS’ It seems Yellen is losing control of the narrative as more and more insiders 'get outside'; and perhaps, after all the establishment shock, Trump is right about the political nature of The Fed.

30 января, 18:39

5 to 4

Narayana Kocherlakota: 5 to 4: On Friday, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided to lower its deposit rate into negative territory for the first time. The vote was five to four. In this post, I argue that...

31 декабря 2015, 03:07

Без заголовка

**Must-Read:** I would say that if monetary policy makers wish to place limits on what can be expected from monetary policy, they need to also be making loud and constructive arguments about what will do the stabilization policy job if monetary policy is not going to push the envelope. I don't think Plosser ever made loud and constructive arguments directing other policy makers to do a constructive job... **Mark Thoma**: [On Summers: My Views and the Fed’s Views on Secular Stagnation](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21302): "The Fed's job would have been, and will be a lot easier if fiscal policy makers would help... >...I disagree with Charles Plosser's view on monetary policy, but I have some sympathy for the view that many people have come to expect too much from monetary policy: >>On the monetary policy side central banks have clearly pushed the envelope in an effort to stabilize and then promote real economic growth. The pressure to do so has come from inside and outside the central banks... raised expectations of what the central bank can do.... It is not clear that this is wise or prudent. Many have come to fear that without substantial support from monetary policy our economies will slump...

30 декабря 2015, 01:05

Links for the Week Ending January 3, 2015

**Latest Must-Reads:** * **Olivier Blanchard et al.**: [Macro Effects of Capital Inflows: Capital Type Matters](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21352) * **Leigh Gallagher**: [The Suburbs Will Die: One Man’s Fight to Fix the American Dream](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21317) * **George Evans and Bruce McGough**: [The Neo-Fisherian View and the Macro Learning Approach](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21312) **Latest Links:** * ****: [The Very Best in Bears for 2015](http://gizmodo.com/the-very-best-in-bears-for-2015-1750396234?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+io9%2Ffull+%28io9%29) * **Thoreau**: [Foundation and Trumpire](http://highclearing.com/index.php/archives/2015/12/30/19067) * **Maciej Ceglowski**: [The Website Obesity Crisis](https://vimeo.com/147806338) ---- **MOAR Must-Reads:** * **Malcolm Harris**: [Reading Everything Aaron Swartz Wrote](https://newrepublic.com/article/126674/reading-everything-aaron-swartz-wrote) * **Mark Thoma**: [Economist's View: On Pareto Optimality](http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2015/12/on-pareto-optimality.html) * **Rich Yeselson**: [Why the 2010s Are Reminiscent of the 1920s](http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/12/the-return-of-the-1920s/422163/) * **Felix Salmon**: ["This is wrong.](https://twitter.com/felixsalmon/status/681592471835533312) Medallion prices are the equity cushion which *protect* cab-driver incomes." * **David Deming**: [The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21310) * **Mark Thoma**: [On Summers: My Views and the Fed’s Views on Secular Stagnation](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21302): "The Fed's job would have been, and will be a lot easier if fiscal policy makers would help. I disagree with Charles Plosser's view on monetary policy, but I have some sympathy for the view that many people have come to expect too much from monetary policy..." * **Noah Smith**: [Don't Blame "Uncertainty" for the Slow Recovery](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21296) * **William Nordhaus**...

22 декабря 2015, 21:08

Summers: My Views and the Fed’s Views on Secular Stagnation

Larry Summers: My views and the Fed’s views on secular stagnation: It has been two years since I resurrected Alvin Hansen’s secular stagnation idea and suggested its relevance to current conditions in the industrial world. Unfortunately experience since that time...

05 декабря 2015, 19:02

Без заголовка

**Must-Read:** Last summer it seemed to me a significant and serious failure of governance on the part of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC that they had approved the search committee's choice of *its own chairman* to replace Charles Plosser as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It is, I think, almost universally agreed that Charles Plosser was a significant failure as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: undistinguished as an administrator of the Bank, and a disaster as a member of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee. From the transcripts of the FOMC we can see him in action: always wrong, never in doubt, intellectually uncurious, and completely unwilling either to even consider that those who disagreed with him had arguments on their side or to make even the smallest efforts to mark his own beliefs to market. Now Duncan Black informs us that it does indeed look as though the appointment of Patrick Harker as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia was a considerable mistake. Personnel is policy, people. One of the most elementary principles of successful bureaucracy tells us the frequency with which the chair of a search...

08 октября 2015, 14:30

Progressive Activists Protest For A Cause You Should Hear More About, But Won't

More than a dozen community activists picketed the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia this week, protesting what they say is the bank president’s refusal to meet with them to discuss how Fed monetary policy affects real people. The roughly 15 activists are members of ACTION United, an organization representing low-income people of color in Philadelphia. ACTION United is affiliated with the national Fed Up campaign, a coalition of progressive groups advocating Fed monetary policies that prioritize full employment and shared economic prosperity. Fed Up and ACTION United planned Tuesday's protest because they say that Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reneged on a promise to meet, and allow group members to give him a tour of low-income neighborhoods where they are active. The activists point to a video in which Harker appears to commit to the meeting in a conversation with ACTION United organizer Kendra Brooks at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in August. When Brooks followed up, Theresa Singleton, the Philadelphia Fed’s vice president and community affairs officer, said in an email obtained by HuffPost that a meeting was not in the cards, because the bank is reluctant to work with “just one organization." Instead, Singleton invited Brooks to Tuesday’s community development briefing for low- and moderate-income community stakeholders. Singleton also said Fed staff would “design and organize” their own community tour. That response rankled Fed Up and ACTION United members. The Federal Reserve has a dozen regional banks, and the activists have met or have planned meetings with all of the regional Fed leaders except Philadelphia's since the campaign began in August 2014. They want a meeting -- and they want it to take place in an economically distressed community of color -- not in the Fed’s offices. So they decided to pressure the Philadelphia Fed with a protest, featuring Fed Up’s trademark “What recovery?” signs and green "Whose Recovery?" T-shirts. ACTION United also sent Brooks to the community development briefing, where she and several nonprofit executives and bankers who work with low- and moderate-income earners spoke with Harker and Singleton. Brooks said she was mostly pleased with what she heard from Harker and other Fed officials, who she said sounded genuinely committed to researching the conditions in communities the Fed serves and finding ways to improve “economic autonomy” in the Philadelphia region.  “The outcome of the meeting was much better than we anticipated, but going in, we did not know the information that we knew coming out.” Brooks said. “We hope he will continue to keep the doors open for organizations like ours and our coalition. And that we will continue to be a part of that conversation and not excluded.” But Brooks noted that the Fed officials did not discuss how monetary policy and the Fed’s adjustment of interest rates disproportionately affects low-income workers and communities of color. For the Fed Up campaign, the exclusion of monetary policy reaffirms that nothing short of a meeting between Harker and activists will suffice. “We appreciate and accept the invitation to discuss community development and research, but this is not a substitute for the promise President Harker made to Fed Up,” said Shawn Sebastian, a policy advocate and staff attorney for the Fed Up campaign. “President Harker promised to speak with working families in the black neighborhoods of Philadelphia about their experiences -- where unemployment is double white unemployment. Harker promised to discuss how his monetary policy decisions can build a true full employment economy that works for everyone.” Philadelphia Fed spokeswoman Marilyn Wimp, in an email to HuffPost, didn't address a question about whether Harker reneged on his promise to meet with protesters. She instead pointed to Tuesday's briefing as evidence of Harker's interest in reaching out to diverse parts of the community.   But the list of the Tuesday briefing’s attendees reveals that Brooks was the only stakeholder from a group with a position on Fed interest rates. Crafting monetary policy is a main responsibility of the Federal Reserve regional banks. Regional Fed presidents occupy five of the 12 seats on the Federal Open Market Committee, responsible for adjusting the Fed’s benchmark interest rates. Lately, they have accounted for half of the committee’s votes, because the Senate has failed to approve presidential nominees for two of the seven seats reserved for members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington. The FOMC keeps its benchmark interest rates low when it is more concerned about full employment, and raises them to curb excessive inflation when the economy has grown enough to drive up prices. Fed Up wants the central bank to maintain current low interest rates for the near term, which will allow economic demand to continue to grow, benefitting workers with more jobs and higher wages. The campaign applauded the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged in September. But Fed Up leaders said they're worried about the Philadelphia Fed and the role its president may play in future monetary policy decisions. The Philadelphia region's previous Fed president, Charles Plosser, who left the post in March, was an outspoken inflation hawk. Harker, who will serve a one-year term on the FOMC in 2017, was a member of the Philadelphia Fed board’s search committee for a new president, recusing himself once he became a candidate. Harker’s views on monetary policy are not yet known. He is a former trustee of the Goldman Sachs Trust, which Sebastian and other Fed Up critics said they worry will make him more sympathetic to financial institutions' concerns about inflation. (function(){var src_url="https://spshared.5min.com/Scripts/PlayerSeed.js?playList=519090257&height=&width=100&sid=577&origin=SOLR&videoGroupID=155847&relatedNumOfResults=100&responsive=true&ratio=wide&align=center&relatedMode=2&relatedBottomHeight=60&companionPos=&hasCompanion=false&autoStart=false&colorPallet=%23FFEB00&videoControlDisplayColor=%23191919&shuffle=0&isAP=1&pgType=cmsPlugin&pgTypeId=addToPost-top&onVideoDataLoaded=track5min.DL&onTimeUpdate=track5min.TC&onVideoDataLoaded=HPTrack.Vid.DL&onTimeUpdate=HPTrack.Vid.TC";if (typeof(commercial_video) == "object") {src_url += "&siteSection="+commercial_video.site_and_category;if (commercial_video.package) {src_url += "&sponsorship="+commercial_video.package;}}var script = document.createElement("script");script.src = src_url;script.async = true;var placeholder = document.querySelector(".js-fivemin-script");placeholder.parentElement.replaceChild(script, placeholder);})(); -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

08 октября 2015, 14:30

Progressive Activists Protest For A Cause You Should Hear More About, But Won't

More than a dozen community activists picketed the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia this week, protesting what they say is the bank president’s refusal to meet with them to discuss how Fed monetary policy affects real people. The roughly 15 activists are members of ACTION United, an organization representing low-income people of color in Philadelphia. ACTION United is affiliated with the national Fed Up campaign, a coalition of progressive groups advocating Fed monetary policies that prioritize full employment and shared economic prosperity. Fed Up and ACTION United planned Tuesday's protest because they say that Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reneged on a promise to meet, and allow group members to give him a tour of low-income neighborhoods where they are active. The activists point to a video in which Harker appears to commit to the meeting in a conversation with ACTION United organizer Kendra Brooks at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in August. When Brooks followed up, Theresa Singleton, the Philadelphia Fed’s vice president and community affairs officer, said in an email obtained by HuffPost that a meeting was not in the cards, because the bank is reluctant to work with “just one organization." Instead, Singleton invited Brooks to Tuesday’s community development briefing for low- and moderate-income community stakeholders. Singleton also said Fed staff would “design and organize” their own community tour. That response rankled Fed Up and ACTION United members. The Federal Reserve has a dozen regional banks, and the activists have met or have planned meetings with all of the regional Fed leaders except Philadelphia's since the campaign began in August 2014. They want a meeting -- and they want it to take place in an economically distressed community of color -- not in the Fed’s offices. So they decided to pressure the Philadelphia Fed with a protest, featuring Fed Up’s trademark “What recovery?” signs and green "Whose Recovery?" T-shirts. ACTION United also sent Brooks to the community development briefing, where she and several nonprofit executives and bankers who work with low- and moderate-income earners spoke with Harker and Singleton. Brooks said she was mostly pleased with what she heard from Harker and other Fed officials, who she said sounded genuinely committed to researching the conditions in communities the Fed serves and finding ways to improve “economic autonomy” in the Philadelphia region.  “The outcome of the meeting was much better than we anticipated, but going in, we did not know the information that we knew coming out.” Brooks said. “We hope he will continue to keep the doors open for organizations like ours and our coalition. And that we will continue to be a part of that conversation and not excluded.” But Brooks noted that the Fed officials did not discuss how monetary policy and the Fed’s adjustment of interest rates disproportionately affects low-income workers and communities of color. For the Fed Up campaign, the exclusion of monetary policy reaffirms that nothing short of a meeting between Harker and activists will suffice. “We appreciate and accept the invitation to discuss community development and research, but this is not a substitute for the promise President Harker made to Fed Up,” said Shawn Sebastian, a policy advocate and staff attorney for the Fed Up campaign. “President Harker promised to speak with working families in the black neighborhoods of Philadelphia about their experiences -- where unemployment is double white unemployment. Harker promised to discuss how his monetary policy decisions can build a true full employment economy that works for everyone.” Philadelphia Fed spokeswoman Marilyn Wimp, in an email to HuffPost, didn't address a question about whether Harker reneged on his promise to meet with protesters. She instead pointed to Tuesday's briefing as evidence of Harker's interest in reaching out to diverse parts of the community.   But the list of the Tuesday briefing’s attendees reveals that Brooks was the only stakeholder from a group with a position on Fed interest rates. Crafting monetary policy is a main responsibility of the Federal Reserve regional banks. Regional Fed presidents occupy five of the 12 seats on the Federal Open Market Committee, responsible for adjusting the Fed’s benchmark interest rates. Lately, they have accounted for half of the committee’s votes, because the Senate has failed to approve presidential nominees for two of the seven seats reserved for members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington. The FOMC keeps its benchmark interest rates low when it is more concerned about full employment, and raises them to curb excessive inflation when the economy has grown enough to drive up prices. Fed Up wants the central bank to maintain current low interest rates for the near term, which will allow economic demand to continue to grow, benefitting workers with more jobs and higher wages. The campaign applauded the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged in September. But Fed Up leaders said they're worried about the Philadelphia Fed and the role its president may play in future monetary policy decisions. The Philadelphia region's previous Fed president, Charles Plosser, who left the post in March, was an outspoken inflation hawk. Harker, who will serve a one-year term on the FOMC in 2017, was a member of the Philadelphia Fed board’s search committee for a new president, recusing himself once he became a candidate. Harker’s views on monetary policy are not yet known. He is a former trustee of the Goldman Sachs Trust, which Sebastian and other Fed Up critics said they worry will make him more sympathetic to financial institutions' concerns about inflation. (function(){var src_url="https://spshared.5min.com/Scripts/PlayerSeed.js?playList=519090257&height=&width=100&sid=577&origin=SOLR&videoGroupID=155847&relatedNumOfResults=100&responsive=true&ratio=wide&align=center&relatedMode=2&relatedBottomHeight=60&companionPos=&hasCompanion=false&autoStart=false&colorPallet=%23FFEB00&videoControlDisplayColor=%23191919&shuffle=0&isAP=1&pgType=cmsPlugin&pgTypeId=addToPost-top&onVideoDataLoaded=track5min.DL&onTimeUpdate=track5min.TC&onVideoDataLoaded=HPTrack.Vid.DL&onTimeUpdate=HPTrack.Vid.TC";if (typeof(commercial_video) == "object") {src_url += "&siteSection="+commercial_video.site_and_category;if (commercial_video.package) {src_url += "&sponsorship="+commercial_video.package;}}var script = document.createElement("script");script.src = src_url;script.async = true;var placeholder = document.querySelector(".js-fivemin-script");placeholder.parentElement.replaceChild(script, placeholder);})(); -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

28 августа 2015, 09:17

Fed Watch: The Right And Wrong Arguments For September

Tim Duy: This September meeting is the gift that keeps on giving. Right now it is giving by the shear quantity of truly bad commentary arguing for a rate hike next month. Let's back up a few weeks. Prior to...

13 августа 2015, 00:05

Noted for Your Afternoon Procrastination for August 12, 2015

**Must- and Should-Reads:** * **Chang-Tai Hsieh and Zheng (Michael) Song**: [Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China](http://www.brookings.edu/about/projects/bpea/papers/2015/transformation-state-sector-china) * **Marcus Nunes**: [Charles Plosser, FOMC Member, the “rates will have to go up sooner rather than later” guy](https://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/05/21/charles-plosser-fomc-member-the-rates-will-have-to-go-up-sooner-rather-than-later-guy/) * **Must-Read: Barry Eichengreen**: [The Promise and Peril of Macroprudential Policy](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=12875) * **Must-Read: Elise Gould**: [Prime-Age Employment-to-Population Ratio Remains Terribly Depressed](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=12873) * **Must-Read: Lisa Pollack**: [Testing Time for Spreadsheets](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=12871) * **Daniel Davies**: [Up and down, left and right](http://crookedtimber.org/2015/08/12/up-and-down-left-and-right/) * **Martin Sandbu**: [The Fiscal Union of Fear](http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/776b7c78-4010-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product#axzz3iLns1niR) * **Steve Pizer and Austin Frakt**: [Loss of Precision with IV](http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/loss-of-precision-with-IV-v3.pdf) * **Must-Read: Nicholas Crafts and Alexander Klein**: [Agglomeration Economies and Productivity Growth: U.S. Cities, 1880-1930](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=12850) * **Must-Read:Elizabeth U. Cascio and Ayushi Narayan**: [Who Needs a Fracking Education?: The Educational Response to Low-Skill Biased Technological Change](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=12852) * **Nick Rowe**: [Interest Rate Control as Beta-Bank Gold-Exchange Standard Anachronism](http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2015/08/interest-rate-control-as-beta-anachronism.html) * **Tim Burke**: [Yes, We Have “No Irish Need Apply”: Rebecca Fried Over Richard Jensen, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0](https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/blog/2015/07/29/yes-we-have-no-irish-need-apply/comment-page-1/#comment-72925) **Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * **Nick Bunker**: [What might make monetary policy more effective in the future?](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/might-make-monetary-policy-effective-future/) * [Why I Try Not to Blather About China: My Visualization of the Cosmic All Is...

Выбор редакции
12 августа 2015, 10:11

Worst Forecaster at the Fed

Brad DeLong: Worst Fed Forecaster: It is quite an accomplishment to both be (a) the worst economic forecaster among your peers, and yet (b) engage in no public reflection and discussion of how and why you got the past wrong,...

11 августа 2015, 23:46

Без заголовка

**Live from Bullwinkle Plaza:** It is quite an accomplishment to both be (a) the worst economic forecaster among your peers, and yet (b) engage in no public reflection and discussion of how and why you got the past wrong, and how you are changing your model of the economy in order to get it less wrong when you forecast in the future. Charles Plosser has managed that accomplishment. Those close to him in the WSJ rankings of Fed forecasting success--Bullard, Lacker, Kocherlakota, Williams, and Bernanke--have all discussed, sometimes at great length, what they got wrong, why they think they got it wrong, and what they think they have learned. Not Charles Plosser--at least, nowhere that I have seen. I have not even found any recognition by Charles Plosser that every single year he was President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia he did get it wrong, did misjudge the economy, and was recommending monetary policies that would be unduly and inappropriately restrictive. None. And so the honorable and intelligent Duncan Black descends further into insanity: **Duncan Black**: ["If It's A Day Ending in 'Y'](http://www.eschatonblog.com/2015/08/if-its-day-ending-in-y.html) Charles Plosser wants the Fed [to raise interest rates.](http://www.thestreet.com/video/13250131/former-fed-pres-plosser-says-not-a-bad-idea-to-raise-rates.html) >[And earlier this year.](http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-hard-to-justify-not-hiking-rates-feds-plosser-2015-02-06) >[And last...

10 августа 2015, 15:44

Links for the Week of August 10, 2015

**Links:** * **David Edelstein**: [The End of the Tour](http://www.vulture.com/2015/07/movie-review-the-end-of-the-tour.html?_ga=1.82481942.1039109618.1406037307) * **Paul Krugman**: ["Martin Longman flies into a well-justified rage over a ‘centrist’ column [by the execrable Ruth Marcus of the _Washington Post_] that concedes that the Iran deal is something we really need to do... that the arguments of the deal’s opponents are scurrilous and irresponsible--but condemns Obama for being ‘dismissive’ of the opponents’ arguments..."](http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/r-e-s-p-e-c-t/?_r=0) * **Rick Nevin**: [Lead Poisoning and Crime: Why the Pipeline to Prison is Running Dry](http://www.humanimpact.org/from-the-hip-blog/lead-poisoning-and-crime-why-the-pipeline-to-prison-is-running-dry/) * **Laurence H. Meyer**: [What I Learned at the Fed](http://carleton.ca/economics/wp-content/uploads/Meyer03.pdf) * **Alexis Hope**: [Journalism + Annotation = ❤️️](https://readfold.com/read/alexishope/journalism-annotation-GkLGdCJ2) ---- * **Robert Waldmann**: [Consumption.pdf](https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxyb2JlcnR3YWxkbWFubnxneDoyZGQyMmNkYzQxNzNmNzU0) * **Samuel R. Bagenstos**: [Universalism and Civil Rights (with Notes on Voting Rights After Shelby)](http://www.yalelawjournal.org/pdf/2838.Bagenstos.2876_c5kmzww2.pdf) * **Mark Frauenfelder**: [Saturday morning mind-benders: "Newcomb's Problem" and "Parfit's Hitchhiker" dilemma - Boing Boing](http://boingboing.net/2015/08/15/saturday-morning-mind-benders.html) * [Gita Gopinath](http://scholar.harvard.edu/gopinath/home) * ****: [Baratunde Thurston Annotates "Baratunde Thurston"](http://genius.it/6409637/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baratunde_Thurston?) * **Fareed Zakaria**: [An open letter to Senator Schumer](http://fareedzakaria.com/2015/08/14/an-open-letter-to-senator-schumer/) * **Allan Beatty**: ["A modern translation of the Battle of Maldon for the internet age: 'Voice shall be louder, pen the shriller, doggedness the more, as our mind lessens.'"](https://www.facebook.com/patricknh/posts/778523278932564) * **Must-Read: Ezra Klein** (2014): [The Home Page Isn't Dead. It's Just Resting](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=12922) * **Dani Rodrik**: [Back to Fundamentals...

17 июня 2015, 13:00

Some of the Fed’s Dots Will Be More Equal Than Others

Federal Reserve-watchers on Wednesday will dissect policy makers’ latest economic projections for clues to the path of interest rates in the coming months and years. But divining meaning from the so-called “dot plot” of interest-rate estimates can be difficult.

09 июня 2015, 17:52

The Fed’s Three-Meeting Ceasefire May Soon End

The Federal Reserve’s longest period of public harmony in four years could come to an end next week.

08 июня 2015, 19:56

Departing Minneapolis Fed Boss to Join Faculty at University of Rochester

Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, will join the faculty of the University of Rochester in upstate New York next year.

22 мая 2015, 01:55

Former Fed Governor Warsh Laments Lack of True Fed Debate

A former U.S. central bank governor opened the kimono on Federal Reserve decision making, saying little real debate happens at the bank's monetary policy gatherings.

29 апреля 2015, 23:02

Fed Cites Weather, "Transitory" Factors in FOMC Statement; No Hat Tricks; What About Consumer Sentiment?

Don't worry. The First Quarter GDP Disaster, released this morning is transitory.How do I know? The Fed says so.Here is the FOMC Statement from today. Emphasis mine. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors. The pace of job gains moderated, and the unemployment rate remained steady. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined; households' real incomes rose strongly, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, and consumer sentiment remains high. Business fixed investment softened, the recovery in the housing sector remained slow, and exports declined. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. No Hat Trick of DissentThere were no dissents. My, how things change. At the December meeting there was a Rare Hat Trick of DissentBut this time, the rationale for opposition changed. Dallas Fed leader Richard Fisher cast a no vote because he believes economic data suggests rate rises will need to come sooner than his colleagues currently expect. Philadelphia Fed chief Charles Plosser remains uncomfortable with language in the Fed statement that suggests the outlook for rate increases is to some degree driven by a calendar date, rather than by the economy’s performance.Meanwhile, Narayana Kocherlakota of the Minneapolis Fed continues to believe it’s a mistake for the Fed to contemplate interest rate increases at a time when inflation is falling so far short of the central bank’s official 2% goal.The breadth of the dissent ties up neatly with the challenging outlook for the monetary policy. The Fed has been greeted with an extended run of solid growth and hiring data that it broadly expects it to continue. At the same time, inflation remains persistently below the 2% price target central bankers say they will defend from both the high and low side. Put another way, one side of the outlook favors rate increases, while the other argues for sticking to an ultra-easy money stance.Unanimously TransitoryIf the Fed is unanimous, they all have to be right.Right?Consumer Sentiment PlungesAnd what about that high consumer sentiment?I am glad you asked, because the consumer confidence report came out yesterday and based on the FOMC statement today that "consumer sentiment remains high", it appears the Fed was not even watching.The Bloomberg Consensus estimate for consumer confidence was 103. The range was 100.5 to 104. he actual index plunged to 95.2 from 101.3. Consumer confidence has fallen back noticeably this month, down more than 6 points to a much lower-than-expected 95.2. This compares very poorly with the Econoday consensus for 103.0 and is even far below the Econoday low estimate of 100.5. The weakness, ominously, is the result of falling assessments of the jobs market, both the current jobs market and expectations for the future jobs market. The second quarter, which is expected to be much stronger than the weather-depressed first quarter, isn't likely to get off to a fast start, at least as far as this report goes. The most striking weakness in April is the assessment of future conditions with the expectations component down 8.5 points to 87.5 for the weakest reading going all the way back to September. And the most striking weakness among the sub-components is employment, where fewer see more jobs opening up 6 months from now and more see fewer jobs available. This spills over into income where fewer see an increase ahead and more see a decrease. But also weak is the present situation component which is down more than 2-1/2 points to 106.8 for its weakest reading since December. Here the most closely watched sub-component is the jobs-hard-to-get reading which is up nearly 1 full percentage point to 26.4 percent. This reading will hold back expectations at least to some degree for a big bounce back in the April employment report from a very weak March. Inflation expectations are down sharply this month, 4 tenths lower to 4.8 percent which is one of the lowest readings of the recovery. Gas prices have been edging higher but are still low, the latter no doubt a major factor behind the latest reading. Buying plans are mixed with automobile and vacation plans down but not home plans which are up. But home buying won't be a featured activity for consumers if their expectations for employment are weak. Today's report, showing weakness in the jobs assessment and in inflation expectations, won't be pulling forward expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate hike.Well, who cares if the Fed is watching consumer sentiment or not? Confidence is meaningless because weakness is unanimously transitory.By the way, there were Only 560 Words In Today's FOMC Statement, Fewest Since October 2012, yet they could not even get the statement correct.Mike "Mish" Shedlockhttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com  Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

29 марта 2015, 23:42

Reading the Federal Reserve's Tea Leaves Dot Plots

[**Over at Equitable Growth**][1]: It is always instructive to look at the materials that the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee pumps out, especially their semi-anonymized (hi, Charlie Evans, with your 3% longer-run value) estimates of what the appropriate federal funds rate would be. Thus we can see, comparing January 2012 when the Federal Reserve began publishing its dot-plots to today, the Federal Reserve collectively and slowly come to recognize current reality. Back at the start of 2012 the FOMC participants all thought that in the "longer run"--which at the beginning of 2012 I take to be next year, 2016--the federal funds rate ought to be back at its normal mid-expansion level, which they all took to be in the 3.75%-4.5% per year range. Today, of course, only one participant (Charles Plosser?) still thinks the federal funds rate ought to be in that range next year, and at the very bottom of it. [**READ MOAR**][1] [1]: http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=10142 And we can see, comparing November 2013 to today, the Federal Reserve stick to its guns as to the anticipated pace of policy tightening set in motion with Ben Bernanke's mid-2013 announcement that it was time to stop searching for further extraordinary monetary...

15 марта 2015, 02:15

Inside The Federal Reserve: "Money For Nothing" - The Full Movie

Nearly 100 years after its creation, the power of the U.S. Federal Reserve has never been greater. Markets and governments around the world hold their breath in anticipation of the Fed Chair's every word. Yet the average person knows very little about the most powerful - and least understood - financial institution on earth. "Money For Nothing" is the first film to take viewers inside the Fed and reveal the impact of Fed policies - past, present, and future - on our lives. Join current and former Fed officials as they debate the critics, and each other, about the decisions that helped lead the global financial system to the brink of collapse in 2008. And why we might be headed there again...   t is perhaps a testament to the ability of the oligarchy (that 1% which owns some 50% of all US assets), as we noted previously, to distract and distort newsflow from what really matters, that a century after the creation of the Federal Reserve, the vast majority of Americans are still unfamiliar with the most important institution in the history of the US - an institution that unlike the government is not accountable to the people (if only as prescribed on a piece of rapidly amortizing paper), but merely to a few banker stakeholders as Bernanke's and Yellen's actions over the past six years have demonstrated beyond any doubt. It is for their benefit that Jim Bruce's groundbreaking movie "Money for Nothing" is a must see, although we would urge everyone else, including those frequent Zero Hedge readers well-versed in the inner workings of the Fed, to take the two hours and recall just who the real enemy of the people truly is. A quick note on producer, director and writer Jim Bruce. While Jim has been a student of financial markets for over a decade, and began writing a newsletter in 2006 warning about the oncoming financial crisis, what is perhaps most notable is that it was his short trades in 2007 and 2008 that helped finance a significant portion of Money For Nothing’s budget. However, most impressive is Bruce's ability to bring together such a broad and insightful cast which includes both current and former Fed members, as well as some of the most outspoken Fed critics, among which: Paul Volcker Janet Yellen Alice Rivlin Alan Blinder Richard Fisher Thomas Hoenig Jeffrey Lacker Jim Grant Allan Meltzer Raghuram Rajan Charles Plosser Tony Boeckh Jeremy Grantham Todd Harrison ... and many others. From the film's official website: MONEY FOR NOTHING is a feature-length documentary about the Federal Reserve - made by a Team of AFI, Sundance, and Academy Award winners – that seeks to unveil America’s central bank and its impact on our economy and our society.   Current and former top economists, financial historians, and investors and traders provide unprecedented access and take viewers behind the curtain to debate the future of the world’s most powerful financial institution.   Digging beneath the surface of the 2008 crisis, Money For Nothing is the first film to ask why so many facets of our financial system seemed to self-destruct at the same time. For many economists and senior Fed officials, the answer is clear: the same Fed that put out 2008’s raging financial fire actually helped light the match years before.   As the global financial system continues to falter, the Federal Reserve finds itself at a crossroads. The choices it makes will greatly influence the kind of world our children and grandchildren inherit. How can the Federal Reserve steer our nation toward a more sustainable path? How can the American people – who the Fed was created to serve - influence an institution whose inner workings they may not understand?   The key tenet underlying Money For Nothing is our belief that a more fully and accurately informed public will promote greater accountability and more effective policies from our central bank - no matter the conclusions any individual draws from the film. Sadly this is where we differ, for it is Zero Hedge's opinion that not only is it now far too late to promote any type of change at the top, but the best policy is to urge the Fed on in its ludicrous policies, in order to lead to the catastrophic culmination of 100 years of disastrous wealth-transfer policies, which unfortunately is the only possible way a cleansing systemic reset - one that would finally eradicate the scourge of central-planning - can be unleashed upon a broken and malfunctioning system in its final throes of status quo existence. Then again, perhaps there is a chance... Enjoy The Full Movie... (Jim Grant's words in the first minute alone are worth the price of admission)...

12 мая 2014, 23:01

Плоссер объяснил падение участия в рабочей силе США

Сокращение уровня участия в рабочей силе США обусловлено ростом числа людей, вышедших на пенсию, либо прекративших искать работу, обеспечивая себя пособием по инвалидности, считает глава Федерального резервного банка (ФРБ) Филадельфии Чарльз Плоссер.

12 мая 2014, 23:01

Плоссер объяснил падение участия в рабочей силе США

Сокращение уровня участия в рабочей силе США обусловлено ростом числа людей, вышедших на пенсию либо прекративших искать работу, обеспечивая себя пособием по инвалидности, считает глава Федерального резервного банка (ФРБ) Филадельфии Чарльз Плоссер.  По его оценкам, главная причина снижения участия в рабочей силе США с 2007 г. заключается в старении населения. Согласно данным министерства труда страны в апреле уровень безработицы в США сократился до минимального с сентября 2008 г. значения: 6,3% с мартовских 6,7%. Основной причиной столь резкого снижения безработицы стало сокращение уровня участия в рабочей силе, доля которой упала до 62,8% с мартовских 63,2% и совпала с минимумом с 1978 г. По его словам, старение беби-бумеров откроет новые рабочие места для молодых людей. Плоссер не стал комментировать денежно-кредитную политику США. Напомним, чиновники ФРС США в четвертый раз подряд приняли решение урезать программу покупки активов. Объем стимулирования снижен еще на $10 млрд. По итогам двухдневного заседания Федерального комитета по открытому рынку (Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC), которое прошло 29 и 30 апреля, было принято решение продолжить сокращение объемов программы количественного смягчения.