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20 сентября, 12:06

One ex-banker's built-in advantage in the Fed chair race: Family ties to Trump

Father-in-law Ronald Lauder, a confidant of the president, has known Trump for five decades.

Выбор редакции
12 июня, 19:50

CHARLES PLOSSER: Why The Fed Should Own Only Treasuries….

CHARLES PLOSSER: Why The Fed Should Own Only Treasuries.

16 апреля, 15:00

Почему манипулируют рынками золота и серебра?

Денежное стимулирование осуществляется с декабря 2008 года. В течение этих 54 месяцев Федеральный резерв создал несколько триллионов новых долларов, посредством которых монетизировал эквивалентную часть долга. Одним из результатов этой политики является то, что большая часть реальных процентных ставок в США являются отрицательными. Другой результат состоит в том, что предложение долларов превышает мировой спрос на доллары. […]

28 сентября 2016, 15:28

"There's A Real Problem Here" - Did Fed's Plosser Just Admit Trump Is Right About Yellen?

Former Philly Fed President Charles Plosser got a lot off his chest this morning during a Bloomberg TV interview. Decrying that central bankers "wring their hands all the time," Plosser noted that The Fed was very "concerned about credibility," and was "pretty good at conjuring up reasons not to act." His mutinous discussion then concluded, sounding very Trumpian, by noting that The Fed "shouldn't be afraid a recession might come," exclaiming "there's a real problem here" with The Fed. Additional headlines include: *PLOSSER: FED'S `IN A VERY DIFFICULT POSITION' *PLOSSER: `THERE'S A REAL PROBLEM HERE' WITH FED *PLOSSER: FED IS VERY CONCERNED ABOUT CREDIBILITY *PLOSSER: CENTRAL BANKERS `WRING THEIR HANDS ALL THE TIME' *PLOSSER: THERE'S FED DISSENT BECAUSE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY *PLOSSER: `DISSENT IS HELPFUL' FOR FED *PLOSSER SAYS FED PRETTY GOOD AT CONJURING UP REASONS NOT TO ACT *PLOSSER SAYS FED SHOULDN'T BE AFRAID RECESSION MIGHT COME *PLOSSER: WISHES FED ‘WOULD GET ON WITH IT’ AND RAISE RATES *PLOSSER: NOVEMBER FED MEETING ‘NOT A DEAD MEETING BY ANY MEANS’ It seems Yellen is losing control of the narrative as more and more insiders 'get outside'; and perhaps, after all the establishment shock, Trump is right about the political nature of The Fed.

30 января 2016, 18:39

5 to 4

Narayana Kocherlakota: 5 to 4: On Friday, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided to lower its deposit rate into negative territory for the first time. The vote was five to four. In this post, I argue that...

31 декабря 2015, 03:33

Things to Read for Your Evening Procrastination on December 30, 2015

**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog):** * **Nick Bunker**: [The 10 most popular Value Added posts of 2015](http://equitablegrowth.org/the-10-most-popular-value-added-posts-of-2015/)d * [Today's Economic History: Did the Classical Liberals Believe in Constructive Statecraft?](http://equitablegrowth.org/todays-economic-history-did-the-classical-liberals-believe-in-constructive-statecraft/) * [Today's Economic History: Writing Is (and Other Things Are) Not "Naturally" Human - Equitable Growth](http://equitablegrowth.org/todays-economic-history-writing-is-and-other-things-are-not-naturally-human/) * **Mark Thoma**: [On Summers: My Views and the Fed’s Views on Secular Stagnation](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21302): "The Fed's job would have been, and will be a lot easier if fiscal policy makers would help. I disagree with Charles Plosser's view on monetary policy, but I have some sympathy for the view that many people have come to expect too much from monetary policy..." * **Noah Smith**: [Don't Blame "Uncertainty" for the Slow Recovery](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21296) * **William Nordhaus** (2004): [Schumpeterian Profits in the American Economy: Theory and Measurement](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21293) * **Roger E.A. Farmer**: [Global Sunspots and Asset Prices in a Monetary Economy](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21287) * **Roger Fouquet and Stephen Broadberry**: [Seven Centuries of European Economic Growth and Decline](https://www.evernote.com/l/AAEjtq4UOcBGBKYsvmcBQQVnahsuBC2WQAEB/image.png): "Rather than being stagnant, pre-nineteenth century European economies experienced a great deal of change..." :: *How rapidly would one anticipate that the Malthusian scissors would work, anyway?* ---- * **Noam Scheiber and Patricia Cohen**: [For the Wealthiest, a Private Tax System That Saves Them...

31 декабря 2015, 03:07

Без заголовка

**Must-Read:** I would say that if monetary policy makers wish to place limits on what can be expected from monetary policy, they need to also be making loud and constructive arguments about what will do the stabilization policy job if monetary policy is not going to push the envelope. I don't think Plosser ever made loud and constructive arguments directing other policy makers to do a constructive job... **Mark Thoma**: [On Summers: My Views and the Fed’s Views on Secular Stagnation](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21302): "The Fed's job would have been, and will be a lot easier if fiscal policy makers would help... >...I disagree with Charles Plosser's view on monetary policy, but I have some sympathy for the view that many people have come to expect too much from monetary policy: >>On the monetary policy side central banks have clearly pushed the envelope in an effort to stabilize and then promote real economic growth. The pressure to do so has come from inside and outside the central banks... raised expectations of what the central bank can do.... It is not clear that this is wise or prudent. Many have come to fear that without substantial support from monetary policy our economies will slump...

30 декабря 2015, 01:05

Links for the Week Ending January 3, 2015

**Latest Must-Reads:** * **Olivier Blanchard et al.**: [Macro Effects of Capital Inflows: Capital Type Matters](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21352) * **Leigh Gallagher**: [The Suburbs Will Die: One Man’s Fight to Fix the American Dream](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21317) * **George Evans and Bruce McGough**: [The Neo-Fisherian View and the Macro Learning Approach](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21312) **Latest Links:** * ****: [The Very Best in Bears for 2015](http://gizmodo.com/the-very-best-in-bears-for-2015-1750396234?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+io9%2Ffull+%28io9%29) * **Thoreau**: [Foundation and Trumpire](http://highclearing.com/index.php/archives/2015/12/30/19067) * **Maciej Ceglowski**: [The Website Obesity Crisis](https://vimeo.com/147806338) ---- **MOAR Must-Reads:** * **Malcolm Harris**: [Reading Everything Aaron Swartz Wrote](https://newrepublic.com/article/126674/reading-everything-aaron-swartz-wrote) * **Mark Thoma**: [Economist's View: On Pareto Optimality](http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2015/12/on-pareto-optimality.html) * **Rich Yeselson**: [Why the 2010s Are Reminiscent of the 1920s](http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/12/the-return-of-the-1920s/422163/) * **Felix Salmon**: ["This is wrong.](https://twitter.com/felixsalmon/status/681592471835533312) Medallion prices are the equity cushion which *protect* cab-driver incomes." * **David Deming**: [The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21310) * **Mark Thoma**: [On Summers: My Views and the Fed’s Views on Secular Stagnation](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21302): "The Fed's job would have been, and will be a lot easier if fiscal policy makers would help. I disagree with Charles Plosser's view on monetary policy, but I have some sympathy for the view that many people have come to expect too much from monetary policy..." * **Noah Smith**: [Don't Blame "Uncertainty" for the Slow Recovery](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=21296) * **William Nordhaus**...

22 декабря 2015, 21:08

Summers: My Views and the Fed’s Views on Secular Stagnation

Larry Summers: My views and the Fed’s views on secular stagnation: It has been two years since I resurrected Alvin Hansen’s secular stagnation idea and suggested its relevance to current conditions in the industrial world. Unfortunately experience since that time...

22 декабря 2015, 09:20

Links for 12-22-15

The Bank Underground Christmas Quiz - Bank Underground Piketty's book and macro models - Vox EU Economic statistics: The Bean Report - Vox EU Quantum cognition? - Understanding Society Economic opportunity, health, and risk taking - EurekAlert Splitting Jobs From...

05 декабря 2015, 19:02

Без заголовка

**Must-Read:** Last summer it seemed to me a significant and serious failure of governance on the part of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC that they had approved the search committee's choice of *its own chairman* to replace Charles Plosser as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It is, I think, almost universally agreed that Charles Plosser was a significant failure as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: undistinguished as an administrator of the Bank, and a disaster as a member of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee. From the transcripts of the FOMC we can see him in action: always wrong, never in doubt, intellectually uncurious, and completely unwilling either to even consider that those who disagreed with him had arguments on their side or to make even the smallest efforts to mark his own beliefs to market. Now Duncan Black informs us that it does indeed look as though the appointment of Patrick Harker as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia was a considerable mistake. Personnel is policy, people. One of the most elementary principles of successful bureaucracy tells us the frequency with which the chair of a search...

08 октября 2015, 14:30

Progressive Activists Protest For A Cause You Should Hear More About, But Won't

More than a dozen community activists picketed the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia this week, protesting what they say is the bank president’s refusal to meet with them to discuss how Fed monetary policy affects real people. The roughly 15 activists are members of ACTION United, an organization representing low-income people of color in Philadelphia. ACTION United is affiliated with the national Fed Up campaign, a coalition of progressive groups advocating Fed monetary policies that prioritize full employment and shared economic prosperity. Fed Up and ACTION United planned Tuesday's protest because they say that Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reneged on a promise to meet, and allow group members to give him a tour of low-income neighborhoods where they are active. The activists point to a video in which Harker appears to commit to the meeting in a conversation with ACTION United organizer Kendra Brooks at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in August. When Brooks followed up, Theresa Singleton, the Philadelphia Fed’s vice president and community affairs officer, said in an email obtained by HuffPost that a meeting was not in the cards, because the bank is reluctant to work with “just one organization." Instead, Singleton invited Brooks to Tuesday’s community development briefing for low- and moderate-income community stakeholders. Singleton also said Fed staff would “design and organize” their own community tour. That response rankled Fed Up and ACTION United members. The Federal Reserve has a dozen regional banks, and the activists have met or have planned meetings with all of the regional Fed leaders except Philadelphia's since the campaign began in August 2014. They want a meeting -- and they want it to take place in an economically distressed community of color -- not in the Fed’s offices. So they decided to pressure the Philadelphia Fed with a protest, featuring Fed Up’s trademark “What recovery?” signs and green "Whose Recovery?" T-shirts. ACTION United also sent Brooks to the community development briefing, where she and several nonprofit executives and bankers who work with low- and moderate-income earners spoke with Harker and Singleton. Brooks said she was mostly pleased with what she heard from Harker and other Fed officials, who she said sounded genuinely committed to researching the conditions in communities the Fed serves and finding ways to improve “economic autonomy” in the Philadelphia region.  “The outcome of the meeting was much better than we anticipated, but going in, we did not know the information that we knew coming out.” Brooks said. “We hope he will continue to keep the doors open for organizations like ours and our coalition. And that we will continue to be a part of that conversation and not excluded.” But Brooks noted that the Fed officials did not discuss how monetary policy and the Fed’s adjustment of interest rates disproportionately affects low-income workers and communities of color. For the Fed Up campaign, the exclusion of monetary policy reaffirms that nothing short of a meeting between Harker and activists will suffice. “We appreciate and accept the invitation to discuss community development and research, but this is not a substitute for the promise President Harker made to Fed Up,” said Shawn Sebastian, a policy advocate and staff attorney for the Fed Up campaign. “President Harker promised to speak with working families in the black neighborhoods of Philadelphia about their experiences -- where unemployment is double white unemployment. Harker promised to discuss how his monetary policy decisions can build a true full employment economy that works for everyone.” Philadelphia Fed spokeswoman Marilyn Wimp, in an email to HuffPost, didn't address a question about whether Harker reneged on his promise to meet with protesters. She instead pointed to Tuesday's briefing as evidence of Harker's interest in reaching out to diverse parts of the community.   But the list of the Tuesday briefing’s attendees reveals that Brooks was the only stakeholder from a group with a position on Fed interest rates. Crafting monetary policy is a main responsibility of the Federal Reserve regional banks. Regional Fed presidents occupy five of the 12 seats on the Federal Open Market Committee, responsible for adjusting the Fed’s benchmark interest rates. Lately, they have accounted for half of the committee’s votes, because the Senate has failed to approve presidential nominees for two of the seven seats reserved for members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington. The FOMC keeps its benchmark interest rates low when it is more concerned about full employment, and raises them to curb excessive inflation when the economy has grown enough to drive up prices. Fed Up wants the central bank to maintain current low interest rates for the near term, which will allow economic demand to continue to grow, benefitting workers with more jobs and higher wages. The campaign applauded the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged in September. But Fed Up leaders said they're worried about the Philadelphia Fed and the role its president may play in future monetary policy decisions. The Philadelphia region's previous Fed president, Charles Plosser, who left the post in March, was an outspoken inflation hawk. Harker, who will serve a one-year term on the FOMC in 2017, was a member of the Philadelphia Fed board’s search committee for a new president, recusing himself once he became a candidate. Harker’s views on monetary policy are not yet known. He is a former trustee of the Goldman Sachs Trust, which Sebastian and other Fed Up critics said they worry will make him more sympathetic to financial institutions' concerns about inflation. (function(){var src_url="https://spshared.5min.com/Scripts/PlayerSeed.js?playList=519090257&height=&width=100&sid=577&origin=SOLR&videoGroupID=155847&relatedNumOfResults=100&responsive=true&ratio=wide&align=center&relatedMode=2&relatedBottomHeight=60&companionPos=&hasCompanion=false&autoStart=false&colorPallet=%23FFEB00&videoControlDisplayColor=%23191919&shuffle=0&isAP=1&pgType=cmsPlugin&pgTypeId=addToPost-top&onVideoDataLoaded=track5min.DL&onTimeUpdate=track5min.TC&onVideoDataLoaded=HPTrack.Vid.DL&onTimeUpdate=HPTrack.Vid.TC";if (typeof(commercial_video) == "object") {src_url += "&siteSection="+commercial_video.site_and_category;if (commercial_video.package) {src_url += "&sponsorship="+commercial_video.package;}}var script = document.createElement("script");script.src = src_url;script.async = true;var placeholder = document.querySelector(".js-fivemin-script");placeholder.parentElement.replaceChild(script, placeholder);})(); -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

08 октября 2015, 14:30

Progressive Activists Protest For A Cause You Should Hear More About, But Won't

More than a dozen community activists picketed the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia this week, protesting what they say is the bank president’s refusal to meet with them to discuss how Fed monetary policy affects real people. The roughly 15 activists are members of ACTION United, an organization representing low-income people of color in Philadelphia. ACTION United is affiliated with the national Fed Up campaign, a coalition of progressive groups advocating Fed monetary policies that prioritize full employment and shared economic prosperity. Fed Up and ACTION United planned Tuesday's protest because they say that Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reneged on a promise to meet, and allow group members to give him a tour of low-income neighborhoods where they are active. The activists point to a video in which Harker appears to commit to the meeting in a conversation with ACTION United organizer Kendra Brooks at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in August. When Brooks followed up, Theresa Singleton, the Philadelphia Fed’s vice president and community affairs officer, said in an email obtained by HuffPost that a meeting was not in the cards, because the bank is reluctant to work with “just one organization." Instead, Singleton invited Brooks to Tuesday’s community development briefing for low- and moderate-income community stakeholders. Singleton also said Fed staff would “design and organize” their own community tour. That response rankled Fed Up and ACTION United members. The Federal Reserve has a dozen regional banks, and the activists have met or have planned meetings with all of the regional Fed leaders except Philadelphia's since the campaign began in August 2014. They want a meeting -- and they want it to take place in an economically distressed community of color -- not in the Fed’s offices. So they decided to pressure the Philadelphia Fed with a protest, featuring Fed Up’s trademark “What recovery?” signs and green "Whose Recovery?" T-shirts. ACTION United also sent Brooks to the community development briefing, where she and several nonprofit executives and bankers who work with low- and moderate-income earners spoke with Harker and Singleton. Brooks said she was mostly pleased with what she heard from Harker and other Fed officials, who she said sounded genuinely committed to researching the conditions in communities the Fed serves and finding ways to improve “economic autonomy” in the Philadelphia region.  “The outcome of the meeting was much better than we anticipated, but going in, we did not know the information that we knew coming out.” Brooks said. “We hope he will continue to keep the doors open for organizations like ours and our coalition. And that we will continue to be a part of that conversation and not excluded.” But Brooks noted that the Fed officials did not discuss how monetary policy and the Fed’s adjustment of interest rates disproportionately affects low-income workers and communities of color. For the Fed Up campaign, the exclusion of monetary policy reaffirms that nothing short of a meeting between Harker and activists will suffice. “We appreciate and accept the invitation to discuss community development and research, but this is not a substitute for the promise President Harker made to Fed Up,” said Shawn Sebastian, a policy advocate and staff attorney for the Fed Up campaign. “President Harker promised to speak with working families in the black neighborhoods of Philadelphia about their experiences -- where unemployment is double white unemployment. Harker promised to discuss how his monetary policy decisions can build a true full employment economy that works for everyone.” Philadelphia Fed spokeswoman Marilyn Wimp, in an email to HuffPost, didn't address a question about whether Harker reneged on his promise to meet with protesters. She instead pointed to Tuesday's briefing as evidence of Harker's interest in reaching out to diverse parts of the community.   But the list of the Tuesday briefing’s attendees reveals that Brooks was the only stakeholder from a group with a position on Fed interest rates. Crafting monetary policy is a main responsibility of the Federal Reserve regional banks. Regional Fed presidents occupy five of the 12 seats on the Federal Open Market Committee, responsible for adjusting the Fed’s benchmark interest rates. Lately, they have accounted for half of the committee’s votes, because the Senate has failed to approve presidential nominees for two of the seven seats reserved for members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington. The FOMC keeps its benchmark interest rates low when it is more concerned about full employment, and raises them to curb excessive inflation when the economy has grown enough to drive up prices. Fed Up wants the central bank to maintain current low interest rates for the near term, which will allow economic demand to continue to grow, benefitting workers with more jobs and higher wages. The campaign applauded the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged in September. But Fed Up leaders said they're worried about the Philadelphia Fed and the role its president may play in future monetary policy decisions. The Philadelphia region's previous Fed president, Charles Plosser, who left the post in March, was an outspoken inflation hawk. Harker, who will serve a one-year term on the FOMC in 2017, was a member of the Philadelphia Fed board’s search committee for a new president, recusing himself once he became a candidate. Harker’s views on monetary policy are not yet known. He is a former trustee of the Goldman Sachs Trust, which Sebastian and other Fed Up critics said they worry will make him more sympathetic to financial institutions' concerns about inflation. (function(){var src_url="https://spshared.5min.com/Scripts/PlayerSeed.js?playList=519090257&height=&width=100&sid=577&origin=SOLR&videoGroupID=155847&relatedNumOfResults=100&responsive=true&ratio=wide&align=center&relatedMode=2&relatedBottomHeight=60&companionPos=&hasCompanion=false&autoStart=false&colorPallet=%23FFEB00&videoControlDisplayColor=%23191919&shuffle=0&isAP=1&pgType=cmsPlugin&pgTypeId=addToPost-top&onVideoDataLoaded=track5min.DL&onTimeUpdate=track5min.TC&onVideoDataLoaded=HPTrack.Vid.DL&onTimeUpdate=HPTrack.Vid.TC";if (typeof(commercial_video) == "object") {src_url += "&siteSection="+commercial_video.site_and_category;if (commercial_video.package) {src_url += "&sponsorship="+commercial_video.package;}}var script = document.createElement("script");script.src = src_url;script.async = true;var placeholder = document.querySelector(".js-fivemin-script");placeholder.parentElement.replaceChild(script, placeholder);})(); -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

28 августа 2015, 09:17

Fed Watch: The Right And Wrong Arguments For September

Tim Duy: This September meeting is the gift that keeps on giving. Right now it is giving by the shear quantity of truly bad commentary arguing for a rate hike next month. Let's back up a few weeks. Prior to...

13 августа 2015, 00:05

Noted for Your Afternoon Procrastination for August 12, 2015

**Must- and Should-Reads:** * **Chang-Tai Hsieh and Zheng (Michael) Song**: [Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China](http://www.brookings.edu/about/projects/bpea/papers/2015/transformation-state-sector-china) * **Marcus Nunes**: [Charles Plosser, FOMC Member, the “rates will have to go up sooner rather than later” guy](https://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/05/21/charles-plosser-fomc-member-the-rates-will-have-to-go-up-sooner-rather-than-later-guy/) * **Must-Read: Barry Eichengreen**: [The Promise and Peril of Macroprudential Policy](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=12875) * **Must-Read: Elise Gould**: [Prime-Age Employment-to-Population Ratio Remains Terribly Depressed](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=12873) * **Must-Read: Lisa Pollack**: [Testing Time for Spreadsheets](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=12871) * **Daniel Davies**: [Up and down, left and right](http://crookedtimber.org/2015/08/12/up-and-down-left-and-right/) * **Martin Sandbu**: [The Fiscal Union of Fear](http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/776b7c78-4010-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product#axzz3iLns1niR) * **Steve Pizer and Austin Frakt**: [Loss of Precision with IV](http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/loss-of-precision-with-IV-v3.pdf) * **Must-Read: Nicholas Crafts and Alexander Klein**: [Agglomeration Economies and Productivity Growth: U.S. Cities, 1880-1930](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=12850) * **Must-Read:Elizabeth U. Cascio and Ayushi Narayan**: [Who Needs a Fracking Education?: The Educational Response to Low-Skill Biased Technological Change](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=12852) * **Nick Rowe**: [Interest Rate Control as Beta-Bank Gold-Exchange Standard Anachronism](http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2015/08/interest-rate-control-as-beta-anachronism.html) * **Tim Burke**: [Yes, We Have “No Irish Need Apply”: Rebecca Fried Over Richard Jensen, 6-0, 6-0, 6-0](https://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/blog/2015/07/29/yes-we-have-no-irish-need-apply/comment-page-1/#comment-72925) **Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org)--[The Equitablog](http://equitablegrowth.org/blog)** * **Nick Bunker**: [What might make monetary policy more effective in the future?](http://equitablegrowth.org/news/might-make-monetary-policy-effective-future/) * [Why I Try Not to Blather About China: My Visualization of the Cosmic All Is...

Выбор редакции
12 августа 2015, 10:11

Worst Forecaster at the Fed

Brad DeLong: Worst Fed Forecaster: It is quite an accomplishment to both be (a) the worst economic forecaster among your peers, and yet (b) engage in no public reflection and discussion of how and why you got the past wrong,...

11 августа 2015, 23:46

Без заголовка

**Live from Bullwinkle Plaza:** It is quite an accomplishment to both be (a) the worst economic forecaster among your peers, and yet (b) engage in no public reflection and discussion of how and why you got the past wrong, and how you are changing your model of the economy in order to get it less wrong when you forecast in the future. Charles Plosser has managed that accomplishment. Those close to him in the WSJ rankings of Fed forecasting success--Bullard, Lacker, Kocherlakota, Williams, and Bernanke--have all discussed, sometimes at great length, what they got wrong, why they think they got it wrong, and what they think they have learned. Not Charles Plosser--at least, nowhere that I have seen. I have not even found any recognition by Charles Plosser that every single year he was President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia he did get it wrong, did misjudge the economy, and was recommending monetary policies that would be unduly and inappropriately restrictive. None. And so the honorable and intelligent Duncan Black descends further into insanity: **Duncan Black**: ["If It's A Day Ending in 'Y'](http://www.eschatonblog.com/2015/08/if-its-day-ending-in-y.html) Charles Plosser wants the Fed [to raise interest rates.](http://www.thestreet.com/video/13250131/former-fed-pres-plosser-says-not-a-bad-idea-to-raise-rates.html) >[And earlier this year.](http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-hard-to-justify-not-hiking-rates-feds-plosser-2015-02-06) >[And last...

10 августа 2015, 15:44

Links for the Week of August 10, 2015

**Links:** * **David Edelstein**: [The End of the Tour](http://www.vulture.com/2015/07/movie-review-the-end-of-the-tour.html?_ga=1.82481942.1039109618.1406037307) * **Paul Krugman**: ["Martin Longman flies into a well-justified rage over a ‘centrist’ column [by the execrable Ruth Marcus of the _Washington Post_] that concedes that the Iran deal is something we really need to do... that the arguments of the deal’s opponents are scurrilous and irresponsible--but condemns Obama for being ‘dismissive’ of the opponents’ arguments..."](http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/r-e-s-p-e-c-t/?_r=0) * **Rick Nevin**: [Lead Poisoning and Crime: Why the Pipeline to Prison is Running Dry](http://www.humanimpact.org/from-the-hip-blog/lead-poisoning-and-crime-why-the-pipeline-to-prison-is-running-dry/) * **Laurence H. Meyer**: [What I Learned at the Fed](http://carleton.ca/economics/wp-content/uploads/Meyer03.pdf) * **Alexis Hope**: [Journalism + Annotation = ❤️️](https://readfold.com/read/alexishope/journalism-annotation-GkLGdCJ2) ---- * **Robert Waldmann**: [Consumption.pdf](https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxyb2JlcnR3YWxkbWFubnxneDoyZGQyMmNkYzQxNzNmNzU0) * **Samuel R. Bagenstos**: [Universalism and Civil Rights (with Notes on Voting Rights After Shelby)](http://www.yalelawjournal.org/pdf/2838.Bagenstos.2876_c5kmzww2.pdf) * **Mark Frauenfelder**: [Saturday morning mind-benders: "Newcomb's Problem" and "Parfit's Hitchhiker" dilemma - Boing Boing](http://boingboing.net/2015/08/15/saturday-morning-mind-benders.html) * [Gita Gopinath](http://scholar.harvard.edu/gopinath/home) * ****: [Baratunde Thurston Annotates "Baratunde Thurston"](http://genius.it/6409637/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baratunde_Thurston?) * **Fareed Zakaria**: [An open letter to Senator Schumer](http://fareedzakaria.com/2015/08/14/an-open-letter-to-senator-schumer/) * **Allan Beatty**: ["A modern translation of the Battle of Maldon for the internet age: 'Voice shall be louder, pen the shriller, doggedness the more, as our mind lessens.'"](https://www.facebook.com/patricknh/posts/778523278932564) * **Must-Read: Ezra Klein** (2014): [The Home Page Isn't Dead. It's Just Resting](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=12922) * **Dani Rodrik**: [Back to Fundamentals...

17 июня 2015, 13:00

Some of the Fed’s Dots Will Be More Equal Than Others

Federal Reserve-watchers on Wednesday will dissect policy makers’ latest economic projections for clues to the path of interest rates in the coming months and years. But divining meaning from the so-called “dot plot” of interest-rate estimates can be difficult.

09 июня 2015, 17:52

The Fed’s Three-Meeting Ceasefire May Soon End

The Federal Reserve’s longest period of public harmony in four years could come to an end next week.

12 мая 2014, 23:01

Плоссер объяснил падение участия в рабочей силе США

Сокращение уровня участия в рабочей силе США обусловлено ростом числа людей, вышедших на пенсию либо прекративших искать работу, обеспечивая себя пособием по инвалидности, считает глава Федерального резервного банка (ФРБ) Филадельфии Чарльз Плоссер.  По его оценкам, главная причина снижения участия в рабочей силе США с 2007 г. заключается в старении населения. Согласно данным министерства труда страны в апреле уровень безработицы в США сократился до минимального с сентября 2008 г. значения: 6,3% с мартовских 6,7%. Основной причиной столь резкого снижения безработицы стало сокращение уровня участия в рабочей силе, доля которой упала до 62,8% с мартовских 63,2% и совпала с минимумом с 1978 г. По его словам, старение беби-бумеров откроет новые рабочие места для молодых людей. Плоссер не стал комментировать денежно-кредитную политику США. Напомним, чиновники ФРС США в четвертый раз подряд приняли решение урезать программу покупки активов. Объем стимулирования снижен еще на $10 млрд. По итогам двухдневного заседания Федерального комитета по открытому рынку (Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC), которое прошло 29 и 30 апреля, было принято решение продолжить сокращение объемов программы количественного смягчения.