• Теги
    • избранные теги
    • Компании2203
      • Показать ещё
      Формат91
      Страны / Регионы667
      • Показать ещё
      Люди213
      • Показать ещё
      Разное854
      • Показать ещё
      Издания43
      • Показать ещё
      Международные организации79
      • Показать ещё
      Показатели108
      • Показать ещё
17 августа, 13:53

S&P Futures, Euro, Stocks Fall After Fed's Low Inflation Warning

S&P futures, European stocks and bond yields all fell in early trade alongside oil and the euro after the latest Fed minutes expressed concern over weak U.S. inflation, while Asian equities rose overnight ahead of WalMart earnings and the latest ECB minutes. Gold rose as high as $1,290 before fading most gains as the USDJPY rebounded. Fund futures are now pricing in about a 40% chance the Fed will raise rates by December, compared to 50% before the Fed's minutes. Last week's market turmoil and resultant near record jump in volatility in the wake of heightened tensions between the U.S. and North Korea has continued to ease, bringing down gauges of equity and bond volatility and repairing most of the damage done to stock markets, in fact as Bank of America showed, the retracement in the VIX on Monday was among the fastest on record. But political angst isn’t over; investors continue to watch the political trainwreck in Washington where President Trump disbanded two high-profile business advisory councils amid the fallout from his response to the weekend violence in Virginia. "Trump dissolving his major business groups makes the investment community even more pessimistic because this sets the stage for even more failure for him," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets in London, wrote in a note. Lost in the political noise was the July FOMC minutes, where the most notable takeaway was the reference to “most participants expected inflation to pick up over the next couple of years….and to stabilize around the 2% objective over the medium term”. However, many participants “saw some likelihood that inflation might remain below 2% for longer than they currently expected, and several indicated that the risks to the inflation outlook could be tilted to the downside.” The debate on inflation echoed recent comments made public by various Fed presidents, while some members noted the “committee could afford to be patient….in deciding when to increase the rates further and argued against additional adjustments until incoming information confirmed that the recent low inflation were not likely to persist”. However, those comments were balanced by the observation that “…some other participants were more worried about risks arising from a labour market that had already reached full employment and was projected to tighten further from the easing in financial conditions”. Elsewhere, on the balance sheet unwind topic, “several” members favoured an announcement in the July meeting, but most preferred to defer that decision to the next meeting in September. With concerns about weak inflation in the air, the Stoxx 600 Index was down 0.1%, with declines in banking shares offsetting advances in healthcare stocks. Germany's DAX, France's CAC 40 and the UK's FTSE 100 all fell 0.1%. Yesterday's Reuters' trial balloon, according to which Mario Draghi would not say anything of note next week during the Jackson Hole conference, weakened the euro, which traded as low at 1.1700 this morning and gave support to fixed income assets with European government bond yields dropping, and the 10Y Bund yield down nearly 2 bps to 0.42%, down from Wednesday's high of 0.47%. Most other euro zone yields fell 1-2 basis points. In currencies, in addition to the euro sliding before the ECB minutes release, most Asian currencies rose overnight, with the Korean won up 0.3% after tensions over North Korea continued to ease. Overnight, the yen gained for a second day as the dollar decline on declining US rate hike expectations. The Australian dollar rose a second day against the U.S. dollar to reach the highest in nearly 2 weeks after July employment data beat estimates while prior month data was revised higher and iron ore prices erase week-to-date losses. In Europe, the pound rose against the euro after strong U.K. retail sales data. In commodities, London copper, aluminum and zinc hit multi-year highs on expectation China's reform of its metals industry will curb supply against a backdrop of robust demand. Gold and tin were among the best performing metals, and zinc traded near a 10-year high.  Oil prices edged higher after new data showed U.S. crude stocks have fallen by 13 percent from a peak in March. Brent crude futures were at $50.36 per barrel, up 0.2 percent from their last close. Today's data include jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook and industrial production. Wal-Mart, Gap, Ross Stores and Madison Square Garden are among companies reporting earnings. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk Choppy GBP reaction to UK retail sales Financial leading the declines in Europe post last night's FOMC minutes Looking ahead, highlights include ECB minutes, US Philly Fed and jobless claims Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,465 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 378.62 MSCI Asia up 0.5% to 159.86 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.5% to 526.58 Nikkei down 0.1% to 19,702.63 Topix down 0.07% to 1,614.82 Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 27,344.22 Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,268.43 Sensex up 0.4% to 31,888.42 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,779.21 Kospi up 0.6% to 2,361.67 German 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 0.435% Euro down 0.3% to $1.1738 Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 1.755% Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 1.454% Brent futures down 0.2% to $50.17/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,287.08 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 93.70 Top Overnight News Alibaba, Wal-Mart Report Earnings; ECB Minutes Watched for Taper Clues The U.S.’s top general declined to comment on South Korean leader Moon Jae-in’s assertion that he needed to sign off on a war against North Korea, saying President Donald Trump had the final say on a unilateral military strike Trump’s pro-business image tarnished as CEOs abandon president China believes the Korean Peninsula issue can only be solved via dialogue and negotiations, Fan Changlong, Vice Chairman of Central Military Commission said Saudi Arabia shipped the least oil in almost three years in June, just as domestic stockpiles are dwindling. U.K. retail sales rose 0.3% m/m in July, exceeding the median estimate of +0.2%, driven by the biggest jump in purchases of food in almost two years President Donald Trump waded into a longstanding scrap between online retailers and their brick- and-mortar rivals with a Twitter posting Wednesday about Amazon.com Inc. and taxes Fed officials are looking under the hood of their most basic inflation models and starting to ask if something is wrong Investors are about to get their first look at Bill Ackman’s plans for improving the performance of Automatic Data Processing Inc., which the activist investor contends is losing ground to smaller rivals Credit Suisse, JPMorgan and Citigroup have struck the first deals on a new structured debt platform amid a boom in repackaged note transactions Most industrial metals eased back after a rally that took zinc to the highest level in almost 10 years on signs of supply curbs and faster economic growth around the world U.K. consumers are flagging, stripping the economy of its most consistent and important support over the past two years. Air Berlin Plc’s insolvency could open the way for Deutsche Lufthansa AG to add new hubs for inter-continental flights while allowing short-haul discount specialist EasyJet Plc to boost its presence in the German capital South Korea’s Moon says will be no war again on the peninsula Japan July trade 418.8b yen vs 327.1b est; exports 13.4% vs 13.2% est Australia July jobs 27.9k vs 20.0k est; unempl rate 5.6% vs 5.6% est New Zealand Aug ANZ consumer confidence 126.2 vs 125.4; +0.6% m/m Elliott Is Said to Buy Debt in Move to Block Berkshire Oncor Bid For Bull Market in U.S. Stocks, You’re Only as Young as You Feel Credit Suisse’s London Sublease to WeWork Said to Be Blocked Trump’s Pro-Business Image Tarnished as CEOs Abandon President Republican Leaders Duck for Cover After Trump’s Race Remarks Asia equity markets traded indecisive following a relatively tepid close in the US where basic materials outperformed as zinc rose above USD 3000/ton to a decade high, while energy and financials declined on oil weakness and after US yields were pressured post¬FOMC minutes. ASX 200 (-0.10%) was choppy with miners underpinned by strength across the metals complex and as a slew of earnings releases also drove individual stocks, while Nikkei 225 (-0.14%)was subdued by a firmer currency. Shanghai Comp (+0.68%) and Hang Seng (-0.24%) were both initially higher, although the latter then pared gains on profit taking and amid an increase in money market rates. 10yr JGBs traded flat amid an indecisive risk tone in Japan, while the 5yr auction also failed to spur price action as the results were mixed. PBoC injected CNY 60bln in 7-day reverse repos and CNY 40bln in 14-day reverse repos. (Newswires) PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6709 (Prey. 6.6779). Japanese Trade Balance (Jul) JPY 418.8bln vs. Exp. JPY 327.1b1n (Prey. JPY 439.9b1n); Exports (Jul) Y/Y 13.4% vs. Exp. 13.2% (Prey. 9.7%);Imports (Jul) Y/Y 16.3% vs. Exp. 17.0% (Prey. 15.5%) Top Asian News Economic Growth in the Philippines Exceeds 6% for Eighth Quarter Casino Giants Look for Clarity as Japan Begins Public Debate Series of Gaffes Taint Unicom’s $11.7 Billion Sale Announcement Gemadept Seeks $125M From Stake Sales in 2 Units: CEO Minh Tokyo Stocks Slip as Yen Strengthens After Dovish Fed Minutes Taiwan Blackout Seen Pressuring Tsai to Reconsider Energy Policy BOJ Seen Trimming Bond Purchases Further If Yields Extend Slide China Kickstarts Privatization Push With Unicom Share Sale Tencent’s Appetite for AI Sends Sector Stocks Surging in China European equities trade modestly lower (Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%) with financials underperforming in the wake of yesterday's FOMC minutes which received a somewhat dovish response given concerns at the Fed regarding inflation. To the upside, material names outperform in response to the gains seen overnight in the metals complex with Dalian iron ore prices up over 6% during Asia-Pac trade. In fixed income markets, prices were originally supported by the softness seen in European equities and the fallout of yesterday's FOMC minutes with the 10yr Bund approaching 164.00 to the upside. Looking ahead, investors will likely turn towards today's ECB minutes release for any views on concerns surrounding scarcity of core paper and any potential biases the central bank could have in purchasing paper from across the continent. Top European News U.K. Said to Plan Visa-Free Travel for Europeans After Brexit U.K. July Retail Sales Rise, Led by Surge in Demand for Food Nets CEO Opens Door to European Expansion Amid Deals Speculation Axa, NN Are Said to Near Deal for Billionaire March’s Encampus Seadrill Shields Seadrill Partners From Impact of Chapter 11 Novo’s Diabetes Drug Bests Lilly’s in Aiding on Weight Loss Vestas Maintains Outlook, Begins $706 Million Share Buy Back Lufthansa Swoop for Air Berlin Would Add Lower-Cost U.S. Routes In currencies, sterling was once again a key focus for FX markets amid further tier 1 data from the region, this time with retail sales on the data slate. Upon the release, GBP/USD saw a spike higher after 3/4 headline metrics exceeded expectations before prices were dragged lower to pre-announced levels with all 4 components revised lower. USD has regained some ground against its major counterparts following the losses seen last night in the wake of the FOMC minutes. USD has particularly out-muscled EUR with participants looking for further insight via the ECB minutes into the current train of thought at the central bank given yesterday's source reports. AUD has regained some ground amid firmer metals prices, subsequently shrugging off the domestic jobs data overnight. In commodities, the metals complex traded higher overnight with gold prices extending on gains seen following the FOMC minutes. Elsewhere, Copper traded higher alongside broad strength across basic materials with Dalian iron ore prices up nearly 6%, while WTI traded quiet overnight and failed to make any significant recovery from yesterday's post-DoE declines. Saudi Arabia June output rose 190K bpd M/M to10.07mln bpd, while Saudi Arabia June crude exports fell 40K bpd M/M to 6.889mn bpd, according to JODI data. Libya's NOC said that the Sharara oil field is "working normally and the situation is currently stable" following recent security breaches. Looking at the day ahead, we’ve got a fair bit of data due today including July IP (0.3% mom expected), capacity utilisation, conference board US leading index (0.3% expected), the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey (19 expected), initial jobless claims and continuing claims stats. Away from the data, the ECB will publish the account of its July policy meeting and the Fed’ Kaplan will also speak. Further, Wal-Mart will report its results today. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 244,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.96m, prior 1.95m 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 18, prior 19.5 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%; Capacity Utilization, est. 76.7%, prior 76.6% 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 51.4, Bloomberg Economic Expectations, prior 47 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.3%, prior 0.6% 1pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in Lubbock, Texas DB's Jim Reid - or in this case not - concludes the overnight wrap Don't panic. Jim's absence today isn't because his twins have arrived early. Although we're not totally sure which of the following shocks he's getting over this morning. The fact that it's 25 years today since his A-Level results, his 4th wedding anniversary today or being told last night by the consultant that the twins will be coming a little earlier than planned and to expect to be called in anytime in the next 10 days. Luckily we haven’t had to alert him to any super important market related news this morning although things did get a bit more interesting towards the end of the US session last night. Initially the news that one of President Trump’s business advisory groups was disbanding in reaction to events in Virginia over the weekend saw risk assets initially pare some gains. Then after that we got the release of the FOMC minutes which showed a relatively healthy debate amongst policy makers about inflation and which the market appeared to take slightly dovishly given the decent rally for Treasuries into the close. We’ll jump into both of events those shortly. Prior to that the lack of any more updates or news on the North Korea/US front seemed to be helping keep things fairly calm overall and in fact after all the excitement of last week the S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 have clawed back nearly three-quarters of last week’s moves lower after ticking up another +0.14% and +0.69% yesterday. The VIX is also back down to 11.74 after nudging down another -2.5% yesterday and having peaked at just over 16 last week. We’ve been saying for a while that we are likely in for a quiet spell although after Amazon’s $16bn bond deal attracted orders equivalent to the GDP of Belarus ($47bn) it seems that markets are still some way from a taking a full holiday just yet. Back to the FOMC minutes, the most notable takeaway was the reference to “most participants expected inflation to pick up over the next couple of years….and to stabilize around the 2% objective over the medium term”. However, many participants “saw some likelihood that inflation might remain below 2% for longer than they currently expected, and several indicated that the risks to the inflation outlook could be tilted to the downside.” The debate on inflation echoed recent comments made public by various Fed presidents, while some members noted the “committee could afford to be patient….in deciding when to increase the rates further and argued against additional adjustments until incoming information confirmed that the recent low inflation were not likely to persist”. However, those comments were balanced by the observation that “…some other participants were more worried about risks arising from a labour market that had already reached full employment and was projected to tighten further from the easing in financial conditions”. Elsewhere, on the balance sheet unwind topic, “several” members favoured an announcement in the July meeting, but most preferred to defer that decision to the next meeting in September. So while the tone of the minutes was actually fairly balanced much of the focus was on the inflation references and particularly the dovish elements. Treasuries were a bit stronger heading into the minutes although yields nosedived a bit further after the text was digested and we saw 10y yields end 5bps lower at 2.223%. 2y yields were also a couple of basis points lower, while the USD (-0.33%) ended weaker for the first time this week. Gold also rallied +0.90% along with the wider precious metals space while EM currencies also benefited from the weaker Greenback (South African Rand +1.08%, Mexican Peso +0.85%, Ruble  +0.58%). That was interestingly also in the context of a weaker day for Oil with WTI falling -1.62% following the latest US crude production data. Staying with the US, President Trump’s political agenda appeared to take another blow yesterday, as he was effectively forced to disband two of his business advisory councils pre-emptively, given reports (per Bloomberg) that one of the groups, led by the Blackstone CEO is planning to quit. The story is taking up plenty of column space in the papers this morning and while the impact on markets wasn’t huge the S&P 500 did end up paring a gain of closer to +0.50% just before the headlines broke with some suggestion that this might make fiscal progress more difficult. It feels like one to keep an eye on. Closer to home yesterday, European govies had a very very brief moment of excitement too at the open when a Reuters report hit the wires suggesting that President Draghi won’t deliver any new messages at the Jackson Hole conference next week on 25th. Instead the article quoted an ECB spokesman as saying that the focus will be on the “theme of the symposium, fostering a dynamic global economy”. That sounds about as vague as you can get which probably fits the bill that he’s looking for. There had been a fairly decent buzz building around the event although in fairness the ECB did suggest that the debate over tapering was more likely to take place at the September council meeting so it probably would have been a big surprise to hear anything prior to this of any substance. In terms of the moves for rates, as we noted it was very brief with Bunds at best 2bps stronger in a short period of time, only then to completely reverse and edge a little higher in the mid-morning which is roughly where they held into the close to finish up 1.2bps at 0.439%. The Euro also mostly recovered a temporary dip lower to end just +0.3% on the day. Jumping over to the latest in Asia this morning, markets are broadly speaking flat to slightly firmer. The Nikkei is back to unchanged following a weak start, while the ASX and Hang Seng are also little changed. China bourses are up around +0.35% and the Kospi is +0.6%. US equity futures are slightly in the red however. Away from markets, Sky news reported late last night that the next phrase of Brexit talks are likely to be delayed until December (from October), in part driven by the challenge and timing of getting a more formal engagement from a new German government as federal elections will occur in September. However, it does mean leaving less than a year for talks on the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU, and another two months of the two-year Article 50 timetable being used up. The reaction for Sterling has been fairly subdued however and if anything it’s a little stronger this morning. Moving on. In terms of data yesterday most of the focus was on GDP numbers in Europe. The eurozone print of +0.6% qoq was in line while the annual rate pushed up one-tenth to +2.2% yoy, which is the highest since March 2011. The Netherlands (+3.3% yoy vs. +2.3% expected) and Italy (+1.5% yoy vs. +1.4% expected) in particular stood in some of the details after coming in stronger than expected. This follows decent GDP data in Germany on Tuesday too. In the US yesterday the July housing data were a tad lower than expected, with housing starts falling 4.8% mom to 1.16m (vs. 1.22m expected), largely due to a 15.3% mom decline in the multi-unit sector. Building permits fell 4.1% in July to 1.22m (vs. 1.25m expected), but this follows an upward revision to the prior month, leaving a still solid annual growth of 4.1%. Elsewhere, MBA mortgage applications dipped 0.1%. Looking at the day ahead, the Eurozone’s July CPI came in as expected (-0.5% mom) while UK July retail sales ex fuel printed at 0.5%, above the 0.2% expected. In the US we’ve got a fair bit of data due today including July IP (0.3% mom expected), capacity utilisation, conference board US leading index (0.3% expected), the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey (19 expected), initial jobless claims and continuing claims stats. Away from the data, the ECB will publish the account of its July policy meeting and the Fed’ Kaplan will also speak. Further, Wal-Mart will report its results today.

10 августа, 16:36

Are Oil Bulls About To Be Burned Again?

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com, Oil investors have grown more optimistic as of late, as oil prices have moved back to $50 per barrel. The market appears to be on sounder footing, suggesting that things will gradually tighten for the rest of the year. But it is unclear how far oil prices can really move above today’s position. Hedge funds and other money managers have begun buying up long positions on oil futures, a sign of growing bullishness. Reuters analyst John Kemp argues that the positioning of hedge funds has entered the third bullish phase of 2017, after two previous cycles ran their course earlier this year. In fact, the most recent data saw the largest weekly increase in net-long positions so far this year, and interestingly, Kemp points out that the net-long build is due to new long positions, rather than simply just a reduction of shorts. In other words, investors are betting that crude oil prices will rise. And for good reason. U.S. shale production growth has slowed, as has the rig count. Inventories have finally posted significant declines, which appear to be ongoing. Some high-profile shale drillers have announced spending cuts. And Saudi Arabia is moving to cut oil exports to Asia, a sign that OPEC’s most powerful member intends to do its best to accelerate market tightening. Plus, although OPEC compliance has slipped in the past two months, the cartel met this week to figure out a way to hold the laggards to their word. Nothing particularly concrete came from the meeting, but the group seems determined not to let things fall apart. "Discussions were conducted in a constructive atmosphere and proved fruitful," OPEC said in a statement. "The conclusions reached with the countries at the meeting will help facilitate full conformity.” Few details were provided. But can things continue on this upward trend? “The biggest question now is, was that July rally just a lot of short covering, or does it have staying power?” Mark Anderle, director of supply and trading at TAC Energy, told the Wall Street Journal.   “The market’s just content to go sideways and figure that out.” Despite the newfound optimism, analysts do not see much upside from here. For example, Barclays said in a recent research note that the rally is probably unsustainable. "Prices have moved higher, due to a perfect combination of a favorable macro environment, a seasonal uptick in consumption, continued inventory drawdowns, and geopolitical unrest," the investment bank wrote. "Certain factors that supported prices in July are unlikely to last, and we expect a downward correction during this quarter." The recent price gains, at least in part, were driven by greater bullishness from speculators, but absent a more dramatic improvement in the underlying fundamentals, those speculative movements can only take things so far. "Fundamentals remain shaky this quarter, therefore any rally that occurs before more substantive inventory draws would be short-lived,” Barclays analysts added. One particular concern for oil bulls is the fact that U.S. shale producers are likely to turn up the pace of hedging with oil at $50 per barrel, locking in future production and ensuring that new supply comes online. Citigroup says that a new round of hedging is already underway. With the certainty of oil sales for 2018 in hand, shale producers can proceed with more drilling. That means more supply will be forthcoming, capping the price rally. Moreover, without visible signs of ongoing improvement in the physical market, investors could start to sour on prices again. As John Kemp of Reuters points out, the liquidation of short bets on oil futures and the sudden increase of longs ultimately means that “it may prove tough to sustain the recent upward momentum in crude and product prices.” When investors take things too far, the pendulum tends to swing back. With speculators having already staked out bullish positions, there is less room to run on the upside.

08 августа, 19:17

The Most Important Chart For Stocks

We have previously shown the chart below on countless occasions, so we are content to see that increasingly more banks are showcasing it as the biggest potential threat to the future of the market's artificial levitation. Here is BofA's Martin Mauro explaining why "investors may be well served by locking in some profits in US stocks." Central banks turning off the liquidity spigot: Among the most striking market developments in recent years has been the coordinated efforts by the world’s central banks to supply liquidity by purchasing financial assets. Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett points out that since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, central banks have bought $10.8 trillion in assets, and that liquidity has propelled financial markets all over the world. That phase, as Citi's Matt King warned two months ago, is ending.  Now it appears that we are on the cusp of global synchronized monetary tightening, according to Hartnett. Central banks in the US, Canada and China have raised rates this year, while the Bank of England has stopped asset purchases and the European Central Bank is on track to end its asset purchases in 2018. Moreover, the reduced pace of re-investment that the Fed has outlined would reduce the size of its balance sheet by $2 trillion by the end of 2022. BofA's conclusion: "The unwind of the balance sheet could impose a strain on financial assets" and as a result BofA now believes "that investors may be well served by locking in some profits in US stocks." And while the unwind of the global central bank balance sheet will certainly have a dire effect on global risk assets, no matter what Bullard, Kocherlakota or the rest of the peanut gallery says (or rather, precisely because they deny it) a better question - one which Matt King asked two months ago - is whether this broken market can no longer execute its primary function: discounting the future: ... central banks still cling to the textbook model in which the market discounts all available information ahead of time, meaning that by the time they actually come to do their reduction, provided they’ve telegraphed it beforehand, the effect is already priced in. Unfortunately they seem to have neglected the textbook footnote that states that markets function this way only when they are deep and liquid. That might have been a reasonable description of pre-crisis markets; it seems a deeply unreasonable assumption for post-crisis markets in which leverage is constrained and one set of buyers have come along and absorbed virtually all of the world’s net new issuance. The above is a major issue for Janet Yellen because while the Fed may hope the market is only "modestly" broken, and can fix itself when the liquidity support is yanked, if the market is too broken to realize that it is broken, and just keeps grinding - or surging - higher and higher, the Fed will soon have a major problem on its hands as it will have no choice but to actively intervene in equity markets on the short side, a skill which none of the Fed's traders have after nearly a decade of only buying. But before that, it will be the bears that will be carted out first, because even though we are late, late, late into the cycle, the following table shows the S&P returns in the year just prior to every previous market peak: Although we are getting more cautious on equity markets, we note that some of the best returns come at the end of a bull market, which makes the case for maintaining some presence in the market. According to Subramanian, in the 12-month period preceding prior market peaks, the historical total return has average 25%. The S&P 500 is up 16% over the last 12 months, suggesting that some of those gains may have already been realized. Good luck timing the crash.

Выбор редакции
03 августа, 20:09

Earnings Beat "Fist Pumps" Very Muted This Quarter

Via Global Macro Monitor, Stephen Gandel of Bloomberg out with a good piece this morning on: …shares of companies that have reported both better-than-expected profits and sales for the second quarter have barely budged this earnings season.   It’s the least fist-bumping investors have done for great quarters in 17 years. – Bloomberg Is this the beginning of a catch up trade? Stocks rose during the recent earnings recesssion through P/E multiple expansion and this just may be the market allowing fundamentals to catch up with prices.   Nah, that’s too rational. Too much catching up to do as noted by Howard Marks comments below. The S&P 500 is selling at 25 times trailing-twelve-month earnings, compared to a long-term median of 15. The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio stands at almost 30 versus a historic median of 16.  This multiple was exceeded only in 1929 and 2000 – both clearly bubbles. While the “p” in p/e ratios is high today, the “e” has probably been inflated by cost cutting, stock buybacks, and merger and acquisition activity.  Thus today’s reported valuations, while high, may actually be understated relative to underlying profits. The “Buffett Yardstick” – total U.S. stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP – is immune to company-level accounting issues (although it isn’t perfect either).  It hit a new all-time high last month of around 145, as opposed to a 1970-95 norm of about 60 and a 1995-2017 median of about 100. Finally, it can be argued that even the normal historic valuations aren’t merited, since economic growth may be slower in the coming years than it was in the post-World War II period when those norms were established. – Howard Marks The market seems to running out of room to the upside as valuations are extremely extended and growth seems to running up against supply constraints, especally labor in the U.S..   Need some quick producitivity gains to nudge  non-inflationary economic growth higher and for equity markets to continue their impressive run. Fits the last factor of the event risk check list of eight reasons why we expect an October sell off,  though, we are not expecting a bear market. More money quotes from the Bloomberg piece: To be sure, Wall Street earnings beats are always a bit manufactured. Analysts often lower their estimates toward the end of the quarter, or soon after it, only for companies to hurdle over that lower bar. On average, over the past five years, 68 percent of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported better-than expected earnings. This year the number is slightly higher at 73 percent. Despite the kabukiness of it all, investors have generally seen those positive earnings surprises as good news. Through Tuesday morning, 314 of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported their earnings for the three months ended June 30. Of those, 174 had profits and sales that were better than analysts’ expectations. Yet shares of those companies were flat compared with the rest of the market in the 24 hours after they reported, according to research from strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Five days later, the same stocks performed slightly worse than the rest of the market. Since 2000, shares of companies reporting better-than-expected earnings have generally risen about 1.6 percentage points more than the market on the day after they announce earnings. The last time that stocks on average failed to jump on good earnings was the second quarter of 2000, 17 years ago. It’s not clear exactly why the cheers for good earnings have been muffled. Savita Subramanian, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s top U.S. equity strategist, says it’s potentially a bad sign. Investors are overly optimistic, anticipating good news. That can be a sign of a market top. The S&P 500, for example, had not yet peaked in July 2000, even though tech stocks had already started to drop, when companies started reporting their profits for the second quarter that year. The market’s massive slide began the next month. The Dow Jones industrial average closed at a record on Tuesday.  – Bloomberg And, finally, Consider the big banks. Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported better-than-expected earnings per share by 11 percent, 6 percent and 8 percent, respectively. Yet their shares fell on the day they announced their earnings.   JPMorgan’s shares are still down slightly. One exception appears to be Apple Inc., whose shares jumped after better-than-expected earnings on Tuesday evening. –  Bloomberg Not a compelling case to make a directional bet,  but a great piece to add to your information set.    We expect to grind higher through mid-September, which sets up for a decent October correction.   This said,  realizing market timing has been pretty much a mug’s game.

Выбор редакции
03 августа, 18:10

"Oil God" Andy Hall Blows Up, Closes Main Astenbeck Hedge Fund

Back in December 2014, the start of the worst oil rout since the financial crisis claimed its first victim when 113 year old Phibro, then owned by Occidental Petroleum after its sale by Citigroup, would liquidate in the US after it failed to buy a buyer. Phibro, of course, was made famous or perhaps infamous (after his $100 million Citi bonus in 2008 prompted a Congressional inquiry) by its star employee, "oil god" Andy Hall. Yet while said god's employer Phibro, was liquidating and thus ending one of Hall's paychecks, Hall would continue managing his $3 billion hedge fund Astenbeck (of which Occidental owns 20%) where he worked in parallel. At the time we wondered how long this oil permabull - who suffered tremendous losses in the ensuing two years - would last in an environment where oil prices refused to go up, and whether he "would blow up twice on the same trade." Turns out the answers, in reverse order, were "yes" and "about 2 and a half years", because moments ago Bloomberg reported that Hall is shuttering his main Astenbeck hedge fund: OIL TRADER ANDY HALL IS SAID TO CLOSE MAIN ASTENBECK HEDGE FUND ASTENBECK MASTER COMMODITIES FUND II IS SAID TO LOSE 30% IN 1H As Bloomberg adds Hall is closing down his main hedge fund "after large losses in the first half of the year" which amounted to almost 30% through June for his flagship Astenbeck Commodities Fund II. Hall's liquidation comes less than three months after another famous oil bull, Pierre Andurand, liquidated his last remaining long positions, although it was unclear if he had also shuttered his hedge fund. Ironically, it was less than a month ago that Andy Hall finally capitulated, admitting that the "facts changed", and warning that oil may not go up much from current prices in what was his bearish letter ever (full letter can be found here). This is what Hall concluded in his latest letter to investors: Whereas it once seemed positions could be held with an eye to a longer-term secular appreciation, that is no longer the case. Indeed, the evidence is now in plain sight. Over the past year, the front month WTI futures contract has moved by double digits in percentage terms 10 times within a $40 - $55 band. This volatility has been accentuated by large financial flows into and out of the market by non-traditional investors and algorithmic trading systems. Attempting to capture just a percentage of those moves makes more sense than trying to ride what has turned out to be a non-existent trend, especially when contango inflicts a negative roll return on investors. The extreme volatility within a rangebound environment also argues for a more tactical and conservative approach to portfolio management. Upon reading this, and seeing little further upside from their former "oil god", it appears that Hall's LPs decided they had had enough, and pulled their cash. Oil, sending imminent liquidation, is down on the news.

Выбор редакции
30 июля, 23:34

Barron's Picks And Pans: Citigroup, Honeywell, Twitter And More

This weekend's Barron's offers a look at a financial giant that has laid out some ambitious goals. Other featured articles discuss an industrial giant with a new chief executive and a specialty retailer ...

30 июля, 18:17

Около 30 банков могут переехать из Лондона во Франкфурт из-за Brexit

Около 30 международных банков рассматривают возможность переезда из Лондона во Франкфурт-на-Майне в связи с выходом Великобритании из Европейского Союза. Об этом заявил президент немецкой Федеральной службы надзора за финансовыми институтами (BaFin), передает DW. Отмечено, что среди банков, которые планируют изменить адрес, есть британские, американские, японские и немецкие...

30 июля, 18:17

Около 30 банков могут переехать из Лондона во Франкфурт из-за Brexit

Около 30 международных банков рассматривают возможность переезда из Лондона во Франкфурт-на-Майне в связи с выходом Великобритании из Европейского Союза. Об этом заявил президент немецкой Федеральной службы надзора за финансовыми институтами (BaFin), передает DW. Отмечено, что среди банков, которые планируют изменить адрес, есть британские, американские, японские и немецкие...

28 июля, 23:38

Bank Stock Roundup: Q2 Earnings at the Tail End, FITB, STI & RF Beat Estimates

Banks' Q2 performance has been decent but underlying weaknesses weighed on the results.

Выбор редакции
28 июля, 18:18

Медь завершает неделю максимальным подъемом

Медь продолжает дорожать в пятницу, завершая неделю максимальным подъемом цены за 6 месяцев.

Выбор редакции
27 июля, 13:08

Deutsche Bank Tumbles After Abysmal Trading Results

Deutsche Bank shares tumbled 4% on Thursday after reporting better than expected earnings, driven by provisions and dramatic cost-cutting, more than offset however by a sharp drop in overall company revenue which slumped to the lowest in three and a half years, as Investment Banking revenue slumped 16%, while FICC tumbled a whopping 12% Y/Y and 30% Q/Q, with CEO John Cryan taking a page out of the Goldman playbook and blaming "muted client activity." The biggest German bank said Thursday net income was stronger than expected €466 million ($548 million), compared with €20 million for the same period a year earlier, while Q2 pretax profit was €822 million, beating estimates of €717 million. However, DB companywide revenue of €6.616BN  declined 10% from last year's €7.146BN, missing consensus estimates. Its noninterest expenses last year were down 15% from a year ago. Profit was modestly boosted by lower provisions for credit losses, which fell 70 percent from a year earlier, as well as a 6 percent decline in adjusted costs. That’s better than analysts had expected, according to Morgan Stanley, which called the results “mixed” in a note to clients. The report dragged DB shares lower as much as 4.7%, the biggest drop since March 6, and were trading just shy of €16 last. Investors were most concerned by the poor business performance as Deutsche's biggest division, investment banking, suffered worse-than-expected revenue declines in most key areas, from securities trading to trade financing.  Chief Executive John Cryan said “muted client activity in many of the capital markets” hurt the lender. That's one way of putting it; another was bloodbath as net revenues were down as follows: 16% in investment banking, which includes deal-advising, securities issuance and trading. 7% in private and retail-banking 4% in asset management Having hobbled its trading group in recent years with mass terminations and lack of trader bonuses, the results, or lack thereof, finally emerged today as Europe's largest bank posted dismal results in what was once its strongest division. Overall trading revenue across debt, interest rate products, currencies and equities was down 18% last quarter. The fixed-income piece of that business, the most important for Deutsche Bank, performed roughly in line with big U.S. rivals during what was broadly a rough quarter for debt trading. Deutsche Bank’s fixed-income trading revenue was down 12%. However, unlike U.S. banks, Deutsche Bank failed to get a boost from clients’ stock-trading the WSJ reported, and as a result the German bank’s equities-trading revenue fell 28% from a year earlier. The CEO scaled back the debt trading business since taking over in 2015, and made efforts to improve controls and compliance after losses and misconduct fines. But problems with the bank’s risk management practices resurfaced last month when its traders were on course to lose as much as $60 million in a wrong-way derivatives bet on inflation. “In equities we’ve lost a bit of market share and we’re down quite a bit,” Cryan said in the interview. “We need to invest in technology. We’ve let it slip a little bit.” Adding insult to injury, the bank said that litigation expenses will probably rise in the second half of the year, the bank said. Several other cases are still pending for the German lender, most importantly a U.S. probe into its role in helping clients move about $10 billion out of Russia in so-called mirror trades. The bank is also facing pressure in the U.S. to disclose details about more than $300 million in loans it made to President Donald Trump for real estate projects. According to the bank, not enough hedge funds and other clients have come back to the bank after a rocky 2016 to generate the volume of business it had a year ago. And the clients who have returned aren’t paying enough fees to make up for the exodus. ”It’s taking Deutsche Bank longer than expected to regain market share,” said Markus Riesselmann, an analyst with Independent Research who has a buy recommendation on the stock. ”But lower credit loss provisions and progress on cost cuts helped the bank achieve a better-than-expected profit.” There was some hope: Deutsche said clients continued to return last quarter, bringing €9 billion in net inflows across the retail and private bank, wealth management and asset management, a welcome improvement from this time last year, when clients were pulling money and business over concerns about big legal charges and its capital cushion. The dreadful performance comes at a sensitive time for CEO John Cryan: DB is going through its second major restructuring in less than two years, recombining its investment bank and trading divisions and folding in a German retail-banking business, Postbank, that it had intended to sell. It is now integrating Postbank and has closed hundreds of bank branches as part of broader cost-cutting moves. The big miss also comes just weeks after Deutsche Bank brought on a new chief financial officer, former Citigroup Inc. Treasurer James von Moltke. Ex-banker-turned-CFO Marcus Schenck is now overseeing the recombined investment bank along with trading-unit chief Garth Ritchie. Cryan is in the process of cutting about 9,000 jobs and has a target of reducing costs by some 3 billion euros by 2021. Headcount declined by 1,525 during the quarter, and is down 4,656 from a year earlier, to 96,652 at the end of June. The bank has recently started to fill some staffing holes, particularly in its corporate finance franchise and its wealth management unit. While it is unclear if today's poor earnings have assured that yet another CEO replacement is in DB's immediate future, one thing that is certain is that Deutsche Bank's peer banks took a certain satisfaction in slamming it this morning, as the following comment summaries courtesy of Bloomberg demonstrate: UBS (neutral) 2Q is repeat of 1Q with lower-than-expected revenues, lower- than-expected costs Reported revenue fell 10% y/y to EU6.6b and was 7% below consensus Underlying revenue fell 7% y/y and missed consensus by 3% Adj. costs fell 6%, were 3% below consensus Reported pretax profit doubled, is 69% above consensus Underlying pretax profit is 13% beat vs consensus Beat mostly due to lower-than-expected provisions for loan losses Any fundamental re-rating of stock hinges on better revenue Market is too cautious about outlook for costs 2Q won’t materially change market view for full year NATIXIS (reduce) Stock down this morning on low quality performance of CIB business this quarter Corporate & Investment Banking performance shows Deutsche Bank losing market share in its core business Pretax EU822m is 69% beat vs consensus Adj. for one-offs pretax is EU1.08b and 3.1% above consensus Revenue down 10% y/y to EU6.6b is 7.4% miss vs consensus CIB revenue fell 16% y/y and missed by 13% Global Markets revenue fell 18% y/y, missed by 14%; with FICC trading down 12% y/y and Equities down 28% IB revenue down 7%, missed by 6% GTB revenue down 12%, missed by 10% PCB revenue ex-items down 4.4% and 0.4% above consensus DAM revenue up 7%, beat by 6% Costs of EU517m are down 15% y/y, but adj. for one-offs costs down 5% HAMMER PARTNERS (neutral) 2Q earnings are weaker than expected, Hammer cuts 2017/2018 EPS estimates by 5% 2Q profit EU466m missed Hammer est. EU586m, consensus EU648m Notes one-time gain from sale of Visa boosted year-earlier result Core bank is still “massively loss-making” if adjusted for strong trading gains and EU5.1b release of litigation reserve in 1Q/2Q Litigation remains hard to forecast, 2H litigation costs expected to be higher 2H credit loss provisions likely to rise after “unusually low 1H” CITIGROUP (sell/high risk) Reported pretax profit of EU0.8b beat consensus for EU0.4b on lower costs and provisions Underlying pretax profit beat consensus by 16%, mostly on Consolidation & Adjustments, followed by Private & Commercial Banking and Asset Management Corporate & Investment Banking missed 2Q will only result in small adjustments to market estimates for the full year Stock may be damped by the weaker leverage ratio, cautious outlook comments Pro-forma for capital increase CET1 ratio gained 225bps to 14.1%, a 30bps beat vs consensus Leverage ratio gains just 40bps q/q to 3.8%, misses consensus by 20bps Says leverage ratio is Deutsche Bank’s “binding constraint,” sees 2018 leverage ratio at 4.2% or ~EU4b short of 4.5% target Guidance for revenue from the operating businesses is now for “lower than last year” vs previously “moderate growth” MORGAN STANLEY (equal weight) 2Q underlying pretax profit is a 4% beat vs estimates, driven by provisions and better costs while revenue was weak Adj. revenue is a 4% miss with FICC weak, down 30% q/q and 15% y/y Deutsche Bank said client activity was muted, volatility low     Net interest income drops 15% y/y, is up 1% q/q Watch for any comments in conference call on outlook for NII Costs were better y/y with adj. costs beating consensus by 35% 1.5% drop in headcount shows progress on revamp No litigation charge, instead a EU26m litigation write back On divisional level, CIB miss, AM and PCB are strong Corporate & Investment Banking underlying pretax is 18% miss Asset Management underlying pretax rises 15% y/y, is beat Private & Commercial Bank underlying pretax 1.9% q/q gain may signal NII has bottomed CREDIT SUISSE (underperform) Says investors will be disappointed by revenue weakness Revenue miss is offset by lower charges Revenue missed in FICC and Equity trading and IBD FICC revenue fell 34% q/q and 12% y/y to EU1.13b vs consensus EU1.25b Equity revenue fell 22% q/q and 28% y/y yo EU537m vs consensus EU684m IBD revenue fell 14% q/q and 7% y/y to EU563m vs consensus EU599m

Выбор редакции
27 июля, 00:13

Citigroup вернет акционерам $60 млрд, или треть капитализации

Впервые с 2008 г. Citi провел день инвестора, пригласив на него 250 аналитиков и инвесторов. Гендиректор банка Майкл Корбат сообщил собравшимся, что Citi «перефокусировался и завершил реструктуризацию», понадобившуюся из-за кризиса 2008 г. В кризис Citi уволил Чарльза Принса, занимавшего пост гендиректора, и получил от правительства $45 млрд помощи.

Выбор редакции
26 июля, 16:51

Comcast should buy Verizon for $215 billion, Citi analyst...

Comcast Corp. should buy Verizon Communications, a deal that could be worth $215 billion, an analyst from Citigroup said Wednesday.

Выбор редакции
26 июля, 16:28

Citigroup stock price target raised to $81 from $78 at Instinet

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.

Выбор редакции
26 июля, 14:19

Citigroup boosts targets as it heralds recovery from financial crisis

US bank says risks are contained as it pushes for higher returns

Выбор редакции
25 июля, 23:23

Citigroup Sets High Bar for Itself

Citigroup shares have been on a tear. Did executives get too giddy on their future prospects?

Выбор редакции
25 июля, 18:34

Citigroup sets out $60bn capital return plan 

Higher financial targets are a highlight of the bank’s first investor day since 2008

25 июля, 16:20

Обвал близко? Трейдеры вкладывают наличные в рынок

Но прежде чем мы столкнемся с негативными последствиями, давайте рассмотрим все факторы, которые заставляют инвесторов сохранять такой настрой.

23 марта 2016, 14:15

HSBC и Citi думают о деньгах с вертолетов

HSBC, Citigroup и Commerzbank задумались о "деньгах с вертолетов". Идею прямого экстренного стимулирования потребительского спроса еще в 1969 г. предложил нобелевский лауреат Милтон Фридман.

26 июня 2015, 11:49

Швеция: первый официальный провал QE в истории

Об опасности программ количественного смягчения сейчас не говорит только ленивый, но буквально еще пару лет назад такое мнение высказывали только очень смелые экономисты. Пример Швеции стал первым официальным подтверждением того, что QE неэффективно.

17 октября 2013, 00:13

Цирк ушел на каникулы...

...но обещал вернуться... Лидеры сената США смогли достигнуть соглашения по возобновлению работы правительства и отвести угрозу дефолта, передает Financial Times. ... Сенаторы согласовали план, по которому лимит госдолга будет повышен до 7 февраля, госведомства будут финансироваться до 15 января, а к 13 декабря законодатели должны договориться о сокращении бюджетного дефицита.http://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/news/17581821/senatory-praktcheski-soglasovali-plan#ixzz2hupntMR2 Пока они не проголосуют в Палате представителей, торопиться не стоит, но по всем заявлением решение принято... по традиции... в "последний" день. Конкретных параметров пока нет, но республиканцы в итоге отступили. Ставки по месячным векселям резко скорректировались, если вчера рыночные ставки долетели до 0.32% годовых, то сегодня они 0.15%, а размещение векселей прошло по медианной ставке 0.19% годовых с хорошим спросом (Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 4.33, хотя и объем размещения был скромный - всего $20 млрд). Как оказалось, их взлет перед этим был обусловлен сбросом бумаг со стороны Fidelity Investments и JPMorgan, от покупок краткосрочных векселей отказался и Citigroup, решили перестраховаться. Баффет,в очередной раз, назвал происходящее идиотизмом, рынок за этим идиотизмом наблюдал с завидным спокойствием: "чем бы дитя не тешилось...". Fitch на всякий случай поставили рейтинг США на пересмотр с понижением. Пресса билась в истерии вокруг "17-е октября все ближе - дефолт все ближе", хотя никакого дефолта 17-го быть не могло (если сам Минфин его не сделает)... и 18-го и ... немного раньше все даты раскладывал и нет смысла повторяться, на 15 октября у Минфина было $39 млрд и до 23 октября он бы вполне протянул, возможно, даже без сокращения расходов. После утверждения решения (если оно будет принято) демократы и республиканцы должны создать комиссию, которая будет обсуждать вопрос и к середине декабря должны решить бюджетный вопрос, подобный опыт в 2011 году привел к тому, что долго решали и ничего не решили, в итоге вступил в силу автоматический секвестр бюджета... так что возвращение цирка к декабрю-январю очень и очень вероятно. P.S.: ФРС предстоит усиленно думать над решениями, особенно если цирк вернется к декабрю-январю. 

Выбор редакции
11 апреля 2013, 09:02

США: Citigroup и Goldman Sachs получили "минутки" ФРС раньше остальных участников рынка

Как стало известно, ряд банков, включая Citigroup и Goldman Sachs Group, получили "минутки" последнего заседания ФРС на 19 часов раньше остальных участников рынка. Представители Федрезерва сообщили, что преждевременная рассылка произошла случайно.

29 января 2013, 14:39

ФРС опубликует результаты стресс-тестов 7 марта

Федеральная резервная система 7 марта опубликует результаты банковских стресс-тестов, которые покажут, насколько устойчивы американские финансовые институты.Условия стресс-тестов для банков США Всего в рамках реформы финансовой системы Додда-Фрэнка, стресс-тесты пройдут 19 крупнейших банков США. Кредитные учреждения должны показать достаточность капитала на случай наступления экономической рецессии. Финансовые власти обязали проходить мониторинг банки, чей капитал составляет от $50 млрд.14 марта появятся более подробное описание результатов проверки финансового сектора. Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (так называется программа стресс-тестирования) началась в ноябре 2012 г. Всего Федрезерв планирует проверить 30 банков.В сценарий стресс-теста заложено крайне негативное развитие событий: увеличение безработицы с текущих 7,8% до 12%, падение цен на фондовые активы на 50%, падение цен на недвижимость на 20% и снижение ВВП на 5%. Результаты своих стресс-тестов кредитные организации должны представить до 7 января.Результаты стресс-теста ФРС США. Минимальная достаточность капитала: 5% ФРС заявляет, что 19 банков должны были повысить свой капитал до $803 млрд по сравнению с $420 млрд в 2009 г.Напомним, что в ходе предыдущей проверки, которая состоялась в марте, у 4 системообразующих банков, в том числе и Citigroup, выявили недостаток капитала, вследствие чего глава Citi Викрам Пандит лишился своего поста.Еще один немаловажный момент: финансовым организациям, которые не прошли стресс-тесты в прошлый раз, сейчас запрещено платить дивиденды и проводить обратный выкуп акций, хотя желание такое у них есть. Ожидается, что по результатам стресс-тестов будет вновь подниматься вопрос о снятии этого запрета.

17 января 2013, 18:33

Прибыль Citigroup выросла на 25,5%

Один из крупнейших банков США - Citigroup Inc. - зафиксировал рост чистой прибыли в IV квартале текущего года.Прибыль за отчетный период составила $1,2 млрд, или $0,38 в расчете на акцию, что на 25,5% ниже по сравнению с показателями прошлого года, когда прибыль за аналогичный период достигла $956 млрд, или $0,31 на акцию.Результат оказался хуже ожиданий экспертов, поскольку прибыль Citigroup без учета разовых факторов и налоговых льгот составила $0,69 на акцию, в то время как аналитики прогнозировали показатель в $0,96 на акцию.Выручка Citigroup увеличилась на 6% до $18,2 млрд с $17,2 млрд годом ранее.

19 ноября 2012, 11:14

Citigroup вновь сокращает штат

Один из крупнейших банков США - Citigroup Inc. - планирует сократить штат инвестиционно-банковского подразделения на 300 человек в текущем году. В прошлом году Citigroup Inc. сократил 900 рабочих мест (5% штата) инвестиционно-банковского подразделения по всему миру на фоне падения показателей выручки и рентабельности. Во время финансового кризиса 2008-2009 гг. Citi проводил массовые увольнения, однако затем стал переманивать специалистов с высокой квалификацией у конкурентов, чтобы восстановить долю рынка.

29 октября 2012, 19:17

Дети вице-президента CNBC были убиты на следующий же день после публикации каналом скандальной статьи

На этой неделе новостная организация CNBC привлекла внимание мейнстрим-СМИ к крупнейшему в истории США иску об отмывании денег и рэкете, в рамках которого «банкстеры» и их партнёры по рэкету обвиняются в полученных нечестным путём доходах в размере 43 триллионов долларов.В иске говорится, что в дело вовлечены должностные лица, находящиеся на самых высоких постах в правительстве и финансовом секторе.После того, как эта информация удивительным образом оказалась в мейнстрим-новостях, начались разворачиваться весьма подозрительные события.В течение нескольких часов исходная страница, где размещался материал, была удалена, а старший вице-президент CNBC Кевин Крим получил известие о том, что его дети были убиты при очень загадочных обстоятельствах.Похоже, сначала произошло убийство, затем была удалена страница.По сообщениям основных СМИ, в убийстве детей виновна няня, которая предположительно зарезала обоих детей.Те же источники новостей сообщают о том, что после убийства няня якобы сама себе перерезала горло.Полиция обнародовала очень мало информации, и хотя весь случай целиком пока не был озвучен официально, кажется вполне вероятным, что убийства, это не что иное, как демонстрация силы против прессы из-за публикации такой убийственной информации о самых влиятельных людях в мире.Вот некоторая информация об иске с вебсайта Marketwatch:«В рамках судебного процесса в окружном суде юридической фирмой Spire Law Group, действующей от лица домовладельцев страны и налогоплательщиков Нью-Йорка, а также в соответствии с законами о компенсации налогоплательщику, коллективный деликтный иск (иск о взыскании истекающих из причинения вреда обязательств; прим. mixednews.ru) был расширен на федеральный суд Бруклина, Нью-Йорк, в стремлении прекратить все конфискации по ипотеке в пределах страны вплоть до решения по возврату 43 триллионов долларов ($43,000,000,000.00) «банкстерами» и их сообщниками, также в рамках дела были выдвинуты требования на аудит ФРС и всех «спасательных программ» бывего генерального инспектора программы TARP Нейла Барофски, который заявил, что никакие из денег в рамках программы TARP и других «спасательных денег», выделявшихся из казны, никогда не были погашены, несмотря на заверения ответчиками в обратном, а также аналогичные публичные заверения на национальном телевидении президентом Обамой и администрацией президента Обамы, и в более частном порядке Конгрессу Соединённых штатов.Поскольку администрация Обамы уголовно не преследует никого из «банкстеров», и по сути активно занимает у этих же «банкстеров» деньги для кампании г-ны Обамы, национальная группа инициирующих дело истцов-домовладельцев была вынуждена расширить свой иск, включив рэкет, отмывание денег и преднамеренные нарушения санкций в отношении Ирана и Закона об эмбарго национальными банками, включенными в число ответчиков-»банкстеров».Одними из предполагаемых заговорщиков являются Генеральный прокурор Холдер, помощник генерального прокурора Тони Вест, бывший губернатор Нью-Джерси Джон Корзайн, бывший министр финансов и один из банкстеров Роберт Рубин, министр финансов Тимоти Гейтнер, Викрам Пандит (недавно ушедший в отставку опальный председатель совета директоров Citigroup), старший советник Белого дома Валери Джарретт, бывший «директор по коммуникациям» в администрации Обамы Анита Данн, муж Аниты Данн и главный юрисконсульт предвыборной кампании Обамы Роберт Бауэр, а также сами «банкстеры», и их аффилированные и доверенные лица.Ожидается, что все новости на эту тему с CNBC будут удалены, и другим новостным источникам воспрепятствуют в освещении этой информации. Тем не менее, сохранились скриншоты оригинальной статьи на CNBC, подтверждающие подлинность этой истории.Это второй случай на этой неделе, в котором высокопоставленные руководители стали жертвой подозрительного нападения, которое очень напоминает заказное убийство.The Telegraph 25 октября сообщил о том, что в Брюсселе 60-летний руководитель в нефтяной компании ExxonMobil Николас Мокфорд был застрелен на глазах у своей жены.http://mixednews.ru/archives/26036 

23 октября 2012, 05:40

Консолидированные результаты бангстеров

На данный момент одно из самых быстро сокращающихся подразделений у бангстеров в плане эффективности и отдачи - это трейдинговое подразделение. Все, что связано с торговлей акциями, долговыми бумагами, валютой, сырьем, деривативами - все падает. Исторический максимум по доходам от торговли пришелся на 2009 год - в тот самый момент, когда бангстеры в полной мере загрузились по самым минимумам после собственноручно созданной паники. Ну и все.Ниже суммарные результаты для шести американских банков (JPM + C + BAC + WFC + GS +MS). Кликните, чтобы в более высоком разрешении посмотреть.Деньги на рынке закончились. Прибыль бангстеров по торговыми счетам равна убытку других участников торгов. С марта 2000 по июнь 2007 они отжали 282.5 млрд долларов зафиксированной прибыли - именно на такую сумму другие трейдеры понесли убытки. С сентября 2007 по сентябрь 2012 забрали еще 216.2 млрд. За последние 3 года с 2009 отдача упала почти в 4 раза (!). Все, приехали. Всех опустошили. Всем спасибо, все свободны. Массовый уход клиентов с рынка, институциональных фондов и частных трейдеров привел к тому, что обороты торгов упали до минимумов за 7-10 лет. Еще хорошо, что активность на долговом и валютном рынках сохраняется. На фондовом рынке все крайне скверно. Там уже нет никаких уровней, интереса контрагентов. Это полностью искусственная среда. При отсутствии активности могут рисовать абсолютно любые уровни, что подтверждает сильнейший 3 квартал в плане роста S&P за 15 лет. Минуточку. Самый сильный рост за 15 лет на фоне самого слабого отчетного квартала для корпораций за целое десятилетие, не считая острой фазы кризиса?! В удивительное время мы живем. Правда, крыться все равно не об кого. Благо, что ФРС помогает. Но одним благо, другим вообще дело до этого нет. Не кажется ли вам ситуация критической, когда при наиболее благоприятной ситуации банки показывают столь омерзительные результаты? Лучше конъюнктуры, чем сейчас уже не будет. В самом деле, не каждый же год обеспечивать рост S&P на 20% при хаях на долговом рынке?Т.е. предельно тепличные условия. Тут и крыло взаимопомощи от ФРС в виде неограниченного впрыска ликвидности с готовностью выкупить по номиналу любое дерьмо в любой момент по первому требованию, и конъюнктура благоприятствующая (фондируются под ноль, рынки на исторических максимумах). Кроме того, Бен Бернанке начал говорить об оживлении кредитования! Казалось бы. Если не сейчас прибыль генерировать, то когда еще? Сейчас в США нет организаций, которые бы дотировались столь агрессивно, как первичные дилеры. Абсолютно тепличные условия.Пока JPM и WFC вытягивают ситуацию. Объективно, они сейчас лучшие среди остальных. Вот если посчитать тоже самое, но для GS + MS + BAC + CХудшие результаты с кризиса 2008 тогда, когда созданы все условия для генерации прибыли?Если это не начало конца, тогда что же? В принципе, за последние 5 лет стало понятно, что текущий формат финансовой системы себя изжил. Они пытались протянуть за счет допинга от центробанков, но не работает. Когда было создано все возможное для запуска системы, когда устранили конкурентов и монополизировали отрасль, когда взяли банкиров под тотальную опеку центробанков? И вот после этого такие результаты?! Мне как то страшно за будущее западных банков.Стоит учесть, что помимо трейдинга сокращается все остальное. Процентная маржа сжимается. Борьба за клиентов и заемщиков приводит к понижению кредитных ставок, что сокращает чистую процентную маржу. Ранее, во многом благодаря высокой марже (разрыву между фондированием и кредитованием) банки относительно успешно пережили кризис. Этот фактор нивелируется. Банковские услуги также стагнируют, что видно на графиках выше.И еще. Пусть никого не пугает всплеск доходов в 2009-2010. Надо учесть укрупнение банков. Произошли слияния и поглощенияJPMorgan + Washington Mutual (2008) + Bear Stearns (2007) + Bank One (2004)Bank of America + Merrill Lynch (2008) + Countrywide Financial (2008)Wells Fargo + Wachovia (2008)Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley забрали долю рынка и активы Lehman Brothers, не считая сотен более мелких обанкротившихся контор

Выбор редакции
16 октября 2012, 03:58

Состояние Citi

Меня не покидает ощущение, что Wall St концентрирует в себе все худшее, что может быть в человеческой натуре. Все слабости и пороки. Надо иметь обширное повреждение мозга или как минимум быть укуренным в хлам, чтобы в отчете Citi найти что нибудь позитивное и оправдать практически годовой максимум акций и 5% дневной рост акций на фоне полного бардака в финансах компании.Рассказ стоит начать с того, что квартальная прибыль Citi была буквально вынута из карманов налогоплательщиков. Пока народ скрежет по сусекам, пытаясь изыскать несколько дополнительных баксов, платя налоги, то бравые парни из Citi дотируются за счет федерального бюджета вот уже пять добрых лет.За 3 квартал они слили несколько (1.9) миллиардов долларов на их безбашенных инвестициях черт знает куда и зафиксировали общий убыток за квартал в 964 млн. Это не проблема. За счет налогового вычета им компенсировали 1.5 млрд и конечная чистая прибыль составили 493 млн.Так как Citi является "национальным достоянием" США, то эта компания может не платить налоги, но даже дальше можно пойти. США должны платить Citi за то, что эта чудная компания существует. С 2007 года Citi разучились вести бизнес и стали генерировать стабильные убытки. Чтобы поддержать Citi на плаву, тоCiti получил в период с декабря 2007 по декабрь 2009 налоговых вычетов на 34.5 млрд долларов. Это абсолютно беспрецедентная дотация за всю историю существования США, как государства. Чтобы оценить масштаб беспредела, то достаточно посмотреть на кумулятивные уплаченные налоги за последние 5 лет. К настоящему моменту из правительства было получено более 28 млрд. Bank of America, как второе достояние США также не платит налоги. Citi был рекапитализирован за счет ФРС и правительства на 88.5 млрд. Эти деньги пошли в капитал банка.Citi использовал кредитные механизмы ФРС в острую фазу кризиса на пике до 99.5 млрд долларов. По данным ФРС, эти деньги были возвращены.Citi использовал дополнительную помощь от казначейства США на 45 млрд долларов. Частично деньги вернулись в минфин.Citi активно участвовал в распределение денег от программ QE1, QE2, QE3Итого по факту от ФРС и казначейства к настоящему моменту чистая помощь была оказана в размере 28 млрд (налоговых вычетов) + 88.5 млрд (рекапитализация) = 116.5 млрд. Круто, да? )) Это не считая помощи от QE операций.Отчет Citi в высшей степени омерзителен абсолютно по всем ключевым статьям и пунктам. Это буквально плавучее дерьмо.Не смотря на то, что ФРС с остервенением лупит по экономике баксом вот уже 4 года подряд, каждая новая программа оказывается все менее эффективной по сравнению к предыдущей. Это видно и по торговым операциям двух крупнейших игроков, которые отчитались к настоящему моменту. Если JPM снизил эффективность, но хоть имитирует напряженную борьбу, то Citi скатывается куда то в зад. До креатива 2008 года еще далеко, но банк делает отчаянные попытки повторить былой подвиг по оформлению годовых убытков по торговым операциям.Результаты Citi по объему выручки – это просто мерзость какая-то. Совокупный доход активно пикирует на дно, но еще скажите спасибо тому, что чистый процентный доход достаточно высок. Почему он высок? Все очень просто. Чистая процентная маржа стала выше, чем раньше за счет того, что фондируются они под ноль процентов, а выдают кредиты относительно дорого. Это преимущественно заслуга ФРС и низких процентных ставок. А вот если исключить этот фактор и посмотреть на конкретную деятельность Citi по оказанию финансовых услуг, то вы увидите полный провал (красная линия на графике ниже). Многолетний минимум и без каких либо признаков улучшения.Так откуда они взяли якобы прибыль?Во первых, как я сказал, они налоги не платят, а только берут деньги из казначейства. Это весомый фактор итоговой чистой прибыли.Во-вторых. Непроцентные операционные расходы стагнируют и находятся возле минимумов. Банк экономит на всем, что только можно, но даже это не помогает делу. Оптимизация издержек идет, но толку мало.В-третьих. Они снизили отчисления в резервы на потери по ссудам.Вот, любуйтесь..Если же вы думаете, что балансовые показатели улучшились, то ошибаетесь. Потреб.кредиты продолжают сокращение, корпоративные немного растут, но в целом ничего хорошего.C отчетом JPM можно ознакомиться у Димы В прошлом посте календарь отчетностей с ошибками. Это Гугл левые данные дал. Тогда лучше здесь смотреть http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/earnings-calendar.aspx