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16 сентября, 23:05

30% работников банков потеряют свою работу к 2020 году

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Такое заявление сделал бывший глава финансового конгломерата Citigroup Викрам Пандит из-за искусственного интеллекта и автоматизации процессов. Об сообщает Хайтек с ссылкой на  Fortune. По словам Пандита, развитие робототехники и успехи в области ИИ не оставляют сомнений, что рынок труда ждут изменения. По крайней […]

15 сентября, 20:50

American Express Has Regained Ground In The U.S. Card Market, But Competition Remains Fierce

American Express is gradually recovering from the setback it experienced in mid-2016, when it lost out to Citi for the right to issue Costco cards. The card giant has done well to hold on to its market share of 10% over recent quarters despite facing stiff competition from JPMorgan and Citigroup.

15 сентября, 13:56

Markets Ignore North Korea Missile Launch; Send Pound Soaring, Yen Tumbles

S&P futures are slightly lower (ES -0.1%) as traders paid little attention to the latest missile test by North Korea on Friday, with shares and other risk assets barely moving, gold lower and focus rapidly returning to when and where interest rates will go up. Most global market are mostly unfazed, and the Korean Kospi actually closed up 0.4%, by the latest geopolitical escalation after a North Korean ballistic missile flew far enough to put the U.S. territory of Guam in range. European stocks edged fractionally lower while Asian shares advanced. As reported on Thursday evening, the main overnight event was North Kore's launch of a missile which passed through Japan’s airspace and over Hokkaido, before landing in the Pacific Ocean. This initially prompted Japan to issue an emergency warning for its residents to seek shelter, while there were also reports that South Korea conducted its own missile firing test as a show of readiness. US military stated North Korean missile did not pose a threat to Guam and that the launch was an intermediate range ballistic missile. South Korean President Moon said will not sit idle on North Korea provocation and that South Korea has power to pulverize should North Korea provoke. On Friday morning, Russia also denounced the ‘provocative’ N. Korea missile test, according to the Kremlin. Meanwhile, North Korea stated that it will take stronger actions for its self-defence if the US continues to walk on current course. Still, markets are showing clear signs of habituation to missile launches and other provocative actions from North Korea, which has fired more than a dozen missiles this year and tested a nuclear device. Global equities climbed to a record high this week as earnings and confidence in economic growth overshadowed tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The MSCI All Country World Index is poised for its third week of gains in four. Meanwhile, recent economic data has been supporting of bullish positions, with yesterday's CPI prints suggesting inflation may again be on the rebound. While China data this week softened, the signals from DM financial markets remain optimistic. As such, investors will look to U.S. retail numbers today for more clues about the policy path. “You have risk appetite returning in the markets more generally at the moment, so you have all these forces pushing down the yen,” said Vasileios Gkionakis, global head of FX strategy at UniCredit. In Asia, Japan's Topix index rose 0.4% at the close in Tokyo to complete its best week since April. South Korea’s Kospi index ended 0.4 % higher after dropping as much as 0.5% in early trading following news of the North Korea launch, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.8 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index swung between gains and losses, and the Shanghai Composite Index was also lower. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index edged lower as North Korea’s latest missile launch raised geopolitical tensions, although to a few lower extent than just three weeks ago and modest moves in risk-off assets showed investors are becoming inured to the provocation. In fact, USDJPY has jumped overnight above 111 and gold was down to 1,324 as few even bothered to wait for the dip to emerge before buying it. The Japanese yen declined 0.9 percent to 111.29 per dollar, the weakest in almost seven weeks. The Japanese currency has seen its biggest fall this week in 10 months while the dollar is headed for its biggest rise since April, thanks to a revival in U.S. inflation data and bets the Federal Reserve could raise rates again this year. At the same time, sterling surged to a post-Brexit high, taking another leg higher on Friday after BOE policy maker Gertjan Vlieghe turned hawkish and said he may support raising interest rates in the near future. Following his comments, sterling soared above 1.36 for the first time since June 2016, and was in touching distance to post Brexit highs, breaking through the September 2016 high of 1.3442. “If these data trends of reducing slack, rising pay pressure, strengthening household spending and robust global growth continue, the appropriate time for a rise in the Bank Rate might be as early as in the coming months,” BoE member Gertjan Vlieghe said on Friday. Vlieghe said the appropriate time for hike might be "as early as the coming months", further stating that risks remain that Brexit will have bigger impact on economy but for now wage pressures are gently building. He also stated that conditions for hike are fall in slack, rising pay pressures and household spending and robust global growth. “The standout undervalued currency in G-10 is sterling,” Citigroup Inc. Strategists led by Jeremy Hale said in a report. “The possibility of a hike in the near term is now non-negligible and this, combined with the fact that the pound’s real effective exchange rate is close to its all-time low, could support the currency from here.” On the other hand, as Unicredit’s Gkionakis said, “If they don’t do it (hike rates) this time, their credibility will be lost completely for the next few years.” Markets expect the BoE to move in November, he added. Meanwhile, not even a report this morning of an explosion on a London underground train at Parsons Green station, which is being dealt with as a terrorist related incident, The dollar stayed on the backfoot, slipping a second day amid the North Korea tensions; sterling surged past $1.35 as Bank of England policy maker Gertjan Vlieghe turned hawkish, stoking speculation of a rate increase within months. Treasuries edged lower and the yen reversed earlier gains as the geopolitical concerns faded, while the euro gained modestly as the ECB’s Sabine Lautenschlaeger said now is the time to take the decision on scaling back quantitative easing. Overnight, the People’s Bank of China offered most cash in open-market operations since July 24 to meet funding demand. Onshore markets: the PBOC pumped in a net 200b yuan via reverse-repurchase agreements, after adding 100b yuan Thursday. The PBOC said that "injections help offset impact of corporate tax and reserve-requirement payments on liquidity." With help of PBOC’s liquidity offering, money rates have declined and will continue to do so until the upcoming party Congress, China Merchants Securities analysts led by Xu Hanfei write in note Treasury yields rose before U.S. data on manufacturing and retail sales.  The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed one basis point to 2.20 percent, the highest in more than three weeks. Germany’s 10-year yield increased two basis points to 0.44 percent, hitting the highest in a month with its sixth consecutive advance. Britain’s 10-year yield gained six basis points to 1.294 percent, reaching the highest in two months on its sixth consecutive advance. Elsewhere, the bitcoin crash which started last Friday following reports that China would stop local exchanges from trading of cryptocurrencies by the end of September, has acclerated, and the cryptocurrency is now down 40% from its all time highs just shy of $5,000 hit on September 1, and was trading a little over $3,000 this morning. Today's Economic data include retail sales, U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Bulletin Headline Summary GBP trades in Brexit night’s range, following comments from Vlieghe North Korea launched a missile that flew through Japanese airspace, prompting Japan to issue an emergency warning Looking ahead, highlight include US retail sales, industrial output and U of Michigan Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,491.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 381.32 MSCI Asia up 0.2% to 162.62 MSCI Asia es Japan  up 0.09% to 538.66 Nikkei up 0.5% to 19,909.50 Topix up 0.4% to 1,638.94 Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 27,807.59 Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,353.62 Sensex down 0.06% to 32,222.34 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 5,695.02 Kospi up 0.4% to 2,386.07 German 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.408% Euro up 0.03% to $1.1922 Italian 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 1.767% Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 1.591% Brent Futures little changed at $55.46/bbl Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,327.57 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 91.85 Top Overnight News North Korea Puts Guam in Range With Missile Launch Over Japan Trump Push for U.S. Jobs May Spur Boom in ‘Corporate Welfare’ Icahn Is Said to Seek $1.5 Billion as Fel-Pro Sale Considered Oracle First Quarter Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates Alphabet Is Said to Consider Lyft Investment of About $1 Billion Nestle Is Said to Pay $425 Million to Buy Blue Bottle Coffee Police Investigate London Subway Incident as Explosion Reported BlackRock Hires Ex-Goldman Derivatives Trader Cho for Equities MoneyGram Deal Panel Is Said to Weigh Data Theft in Review: NYP Morgan Stanley CEO: Low Chance of U.S. Rules Overhaul: Echos Array Biopharma 20.9m-Share Offering Prices at $10.75 Apiece Facebook Plans to Open AI Center in Montreal: WSJ Japan Considering Tax Increase for E-Cigarettes, Asahi Says Credit Suisse Reaches Settlement of MassMutual Litigation Reps. Gowdy, Smith Ask Equifax CEO for Briefing, Documents Dole Food Is Said to Be Exploring a Sale, DJ Says China Credit Expansion Remains Robust as PBOC Maintains Support Google and Facebook Fret Over Anti-Prostitution Bill’s Fallout Trump Deal With Democrats Brings New Wall Pledge: Build It Later Asia equity markets traded mixed after North Korea launched a missile that flew through Japanese airspace and over the Hokkaido prefecture before landing in the Pacific Ocean, which prompted Japan to issue an emergency warning for its residents and South Korea also conducted its own missile firing test as a show of readiness. This triggered a risk-averse tone across asset classes with ASX 200 (-0.7%) and KOSPI (-0.2%) pressured from the open, while Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) pared early losses as USD/JPY rebounded from its lows. Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) and Hang Seng (+0.4%) both initially conformed to the downbeat sentiment caused by the renewed geopolitical concerns, although downside in mainland China was stemmed and Hong Kong recovered amid a firm liquidity effort by the PBoC. 10yr JGBs were higher and eyed the 151.00 level amid the mostly risk-averse tone in the region and with the BoJ present in the market for JPY 880bln in JGBs of maturities across the curve. PBoC injected CNY 120bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 60bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bln via 28-day reverse repos. (Newswires) PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5423 (Prev. 6.5465). Top Asian News South Korean Markets Show Resilience After North Fires Missile N.Korea Says Missile Launch Normal Part of Nuclear Deterrent:NHK China Says Unhelpful to Unjustly Blame Others on N. Korea Issue Hedge Fund Farallon’s Singapore CEO to Resign After 17 Years China’s JD.com, Thailand’s Central Group to Venture in Fintech Formula One Extends Singapore Race Contract for Four More Years Tata Feud With Mistry Deepens With Plan to Change Holding Firm GM’s Record China Deliveries Mask Muted Electric Car Sales European equities trade marginal lower amid geopolitical tensions, where North Korea fired another missile into Japanese airspace. Market reaction was minimal in Asia, led into European trade where equity markets trade with slight losses. FTSE under-performs as a result of the buoyant Sterling, as hawkish BoE comments were supported by Governor Carney and noticeable dove Vlieghe, with the former stating, the probability of a hike has definitely increased, may need to adjust Bank Rate in the coming months. European bonds trade in a tight range, with yields now slightly higher vs. yesterday across the board. Gilts have been in focus following the volatility that has been seen in UK asset classes post BoE. The UK 10y continues to trade near lows, pushed by comments from BoE’s Vlieghe, now trading through July’s lows. Top European News BOE’s Vlieghe Says Rate Increase May Be Needed in Coming Months Axa Said to Weigh Merger for European Asset Management Unit Bavarian Plunges as Committee Recommends Ending Phase 3 Study EU Eyes Monetary Fund for Region as Political Wills Align HSH Nordbank Is Good Opportunity for the Right Buyer: Flowers Dutch State Sells Stake of About $1.8 Billion in ABN Amro Iceland Government Faces Breakup as Coalition Partner Quits In currencies, the geopolitical concerns saw USD/JPY briefly spike below 110.00, as unfazed bids were stacked around 109.50, bouncing the pair 100 pips. The JPY safe-haven flow has become a concern of late, as threats against Japan could lead to flows outside of the JPY, and some traders looking for other safe haven assets. This could be indicated by the lack of aggression in the bounce in USD/CHF, with the cross remaining other the 2017 downward resistance trendline. The other notable currency move was in the pound: following Vlieghe’s comments, Cable is now in touching distance of those post Brexit highs, breaking through the September 2016 high of 1.3442, next key resistance could be at 1.3535. In commodities, WTI trades just short of USD 50.00, as some bids have been evident as we approached the European lunch hour. Gold fell 0.4 percent to $1,323.88 an ounce. Copper increased 0.2 percent to $6,512.00 per metric ton. Looking at the day ahead, we get numerous data releases including: IP for August (0.1% mom expected), the empire manufacturing survey, August retail sales, business inventories as well as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. Onto other events, EU finance ministers will hold Ecofin and Eurogroup meetings, the agenda includes: deepening of economic and monetary ties, developing capital-markets union, and tax and customs matters. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 18, prior 25.2 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.6%; Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5% 8:30am: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%; Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.2%, prior 0.6% 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%; Capacity Utilization, est. 76.7%, prior 76.7%; 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5% 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 95, prior 96.8; Current Conditions, est. 108, prior 110.9; Expectations, est. 83, prior 87.7 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.6%; 10am: U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.5% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Happy Friday. It wasn't so long ago that the weekend ahead would offer the enticing prospect of a couple of rounds of golf, maybe a game of cricket, a night out with the boys, watching Liverpool on the telly and then a box set and a steak on Sunday evening. Oh how things have changed. This weekend I'll be on strict duty for the regular 90 minute feeding sessions every 3 hours and around this we have two birthday parties to attend for 2 years olds. To be fair one of them is my own daughter's tomorrow (unbelievably she'll be two) but the other on Sunday possibly involves me driving my wife and Maisie there and then waiting in the car with the twins as given the big party it might not be advisable for them to be exposed to a big crowd before they've had their injections. Oh what fun. That's not where it ends as many of Maisie's friends are turning two and my weekend diary is full for the next month attending these. My advice to the younger readers of this note is make sure you fill your weekend with every fun thing imaginable. Days like these won't last! There's been enough going on in markets over the last 18 hours to keep my mind off the stresses of the weekend ahead. In fact there was a fairly fascinating middle few hours of the day yesterday with the BoE surprising on the hawkish side, US inflation higher than expected, North Korea trying to grab back the spotlight and halting the rise in yields, Mr Trump publicly haggling with Democrats on a DACA deal, which is apparently “fairly close”, and as the European day ended, Mr Carney admitting he was one of those leaning towards a hike as prices were going up due to a weaker currency. Adding to this, this morning North Korea has fired off another missile that flew over Japan and landed into the Pacific Ocean. This follows their threats yesterday to use a nuclear weapon against Japan and turn the US into “ashes and darkness” for agreeing on new UN sanctions this week. The range of the test is important as the 3700km travelled is further than the distance to US controlled Guam (3400km). So it looks highly provocative. Asian markets are surprisingly taking the news in their stride with the Nikkei (+0.46%) and Hang Seng (+0.3%) higher but with the Kospi (-0.14%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.32%) slightly lower. Elsewhere UST 10yrs have only dipped 0.5bp. So we'll see if Europe gets more stressed by the news. The UN Security Council reconvenes at 3pm NYT today so we'll see if there is an additional response here. The North Korean headlines yesterday slightly overshadowed the US CPI numbers as they came out. After five consecutive downside misses, core Inflation surprised on the upside. According to DB's Matt Luzzetti, much of the volatility in the past two months has been due to large swings in the lodging away subcomponent, which rose sharply in August after plunging in July. Smoothing through this volatility, there are still signs that the core inflation trend is firming: the average monthly inflation rate over the past two months is 0.18%, which annualizes to 2.2%. DB still think YoY inflation for the next few months will be around current levels but that it will move higher in 2018 due to the lagged impact of recent stronger growth, recent $ weakness and tightening labour markets. In response, the UST 10y yields initially rose c2bp intraday but recovered to close broadly unchanged at 2.186%, in part given the rising tensions with North Korea. Elsewhere, the probability of a rate hike in December has increased 4ppt overnight to 43% and is up c18ppt from recent lows (per Bloomberg calculator). On the BoE, the risks were always to the hawkish side yesterday and this is what we saw. Indeed DB have now changed their official rate call and now expect a 25bp policy rate hike on 2 November. There was no denying the signal in the MPC statement and minutes. A “majority” of committee members would support a rate hike in the near term if the economy performs in line with expectations. “All members” agree that rates are likely to rise more than the market is pricing. As Mark Wall and Oliver Harvey note there now needs to be a surprise event to push the majority away from a near-term hike. Brexit has that potential if negotiations turn disorderly. They remain skeptical about this being the start of a tightening cycle though and see consensus expectations for UK GDP growth as too optimistic. The market responded with Sterling rallying 1.42% vs. USD, 10y Gilts rising 8.5bp to 1.227% and the probability of a rate hike in November also jumping 17ppt to 50% (as per Bloomberg's calculator). Notably, changes in other sovereign bond yields were more tempered. Core European bond yields were up around 1bp, with Bunds (2Y: +0.2bp; 10Y: +1bp) and French OATs (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: +1bp) slightly higher in yield while Peripherals rose by around 2bp, with Italian BTPs (2Y: unch; 10Y: +2bp) and Spain (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: +2bp) the highlights. Onto other markets, US equities were mixed but little changed, with the S&P and Nasdaq down 0.11% and 0.48% respectively, but the Dow bucked the trend to be up 0.20%. Within the S&P, gains were led by utilities (+0.87%) and the real estate sector as they partly recovered from prior day losses, while the discretionary consumer and Telco names underperformed. European markets were also little changed, with the Stoxx up 0.12%, with gains from energy names being largely offset by a decline in mining stocks. Elsewhere, the DAX dipped 0.10%, the CAC rose 0.15% and the FTSE 100 fell 1.14% as the BOE got more hawkish  and Sterling rallied. Turning to currencies, most of the action was in Sterling as noted earlier. The US dollar index fell -0.43%, while the Euro/USD gained 0.29% but fell 1.13% against Sterling. In commodities, WTI oil increased 1.20%, building on the momentum from higher demand forecasts from IEA and OPEC yesterday as well as OPEC members voicing a preference to the extension to production cuts. Elsewhere, precious metals were slightly higher (Gold +0.56%; Silver +0.13%), but base metals weakened following the earlier softer than expected Chinese macro data (Copper -1.27%; Aluminium -0.67%, LME Nickel -1.41%). Away from the markets, PM Theresa May’s big speech has been confirmed to take place on 22 September in Florence, which could provide direction or alternatively chaos to the Brexit talks. Shortly after that, the official talks with the EU will begin again on the 25th September. Across the Pond, President Trump said he is close to a deal with Congressional democrats to permanently avoid deportation of 0.8m of immigrants brought illegally to the US as children. He noted that “we’re working on a plan for DACA (deferred action for childhood arrivals). People want to see that happen”. Notably, he is now flagging the DACA issue and his desire for a Mexican border wall to be handled separately, provided that the democrats promise not to “obstruct” it (funding for the wall) in the future. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, as discussed earlier, core inflation was slightly above market at 0.2485% mom (vs. 0.2% expected), enabling the annual rate to rise to 1.7% yoy (vs. 1.6% expected). Elsewhere, both initial jobless claims and continuing claims were lower than expectations, with jobless claims at 284k (vs. 300k expected) and continuing claims at 1,944k (vs. 1,965k expected). In the UK, The August RICS survey revealed that on balance, surveyors continued to report a decline in both buyer enquiry and new selling instructions. Elsewhere, the final readings on inflation for France and Italy were unchanged at 0.9% yoy and 1.4% yoy respectively. Turning to the lower than expected Chinese macro data we touched on yesterday, our China research team highlights that they maintain their baseline GDP growth forecast at 6.6% yoy in Q3 and 6.5% yoy in Q4 (Q2 was 6.9% yoy). They see no reason to panic, noting that the land market continued to boom in August which will help government revenue in H2. And if the government is concerned by slower growth, they could suspend the supply constrain on upstream sectors and increase infrastructure spending. Looking at the day ahead, the Eurozone’s trade balance stats for July are due. Then the US will release numerous data including: IP for August (0.1% mom expected), the empire manufacturing survey, August retail sales, business inventories as well as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. Onto other events, EU finance ministers will hold Ecofin and Eurogroup meetings, the agenda includes: deepening of economic and monetary ties, developing capital-markets union, and tax and customs matters.

15 сентября, 05:40

Former Citi CEO Vikram Pandit: "AI Could Kill 30% Of Back-Office Banking Jobs By 2023"

Just as the development of electronic trading led to mass downsizing on sales desks across Wall Street, advances in artificial intelligence could decimate the ranks of banks’ back-office staff, according to former Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit. And given the rapid pace of technological advance, jobs in operations and retail banking could begin disappearing in as few as five years. Pandit, who shared his thoughts about the future of the banking industry during an interview with Bloomberg, said that the industry’s focus on technology as a cost-saving measure - Bank of America Corp.’s Chief Operating Officer Tom Montag said in June that the bank is searching for more ways for technology to replace people – has inspired him to move up his timeline aggressively.   As Bloomberg points out, Pandit’s forecast for job losses is in step with one made by Citigroup last year. In a March 2016 report, the lender estimated a 30% reduction between 2015 and 2025, as banks find more applications for automation in their retail businesses. That could lead to job losses numbering 770,000 in the US, and as much as 1 million in Europe, Citigroup said. “Everything that happens with artificial intelligence, robotics and natural language - all of that is going to make processes easier,” said Pandit, who was Citigroup’s chief executive officer from 2007 to 2012. “It’s going to change the back office.” This pressure on employees to prove that they’re more productive than the technology has transformed banking into an “enormously competitive” industry, Pandit said, adding that he expects the shift to produce yet another wave of consolidation in an industry that’s already dangerously concentrated, a flaw that was both exposed and exacerbated by the financial crisis. Though he also believes advances in technology will lead to the development of “specialist providers,” making the financial system “a bit more decentralized.” Pandit achieved lasting notoriety after becoming CEO of Citigroup in December 2007 just as the cascading subprime mortgage crisis was driving the US economy into a recession. He had previously led a hedge fund that was acquired by the bank, and, upon taking the top job, was widely criticized in the press for his inexperience in managing many of Citigroup’s core businesses like, for example, banking. He’s now the CEO of Orogen Group, an investment firm that he co-founded last year, five years after being forced out as Citi’s CEO. While Pandit’s prediction should be concerning to anyone who works in the financial industry, humanity as a whole would have much more to worry about if another CEO’s dire predictions about AI are eventually realized.In one of several memorable tweetstorms on the topic, Tesla CEO Elon Musk urged governments to start considering regulation to govern the development and application of AI technology, arguing that the machines pose a greater danger to the US than North Korea.   If you're not concerned about AI safety, you should be. Vastly more risk than North Korea. pic.twitter.com/2z0tiid0lc — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 12, 2017   However, other banking CEOs, including JP Morgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon, have played down the potential impact of technology in the financial industry, as Bloomberg reminds us. Conversely, automation could create “more opportunities” for employment as the firm hires a bevy of “technology workers.” “JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned in June against overreacting to the impact of technology on jobs. While the bank is using technology to reduce costs, that helps create other opportunities, Dimon said in an interview published on LinkedIn. He predicted that employee numbers at his firm will continue to rise -- as it hires more technology workers.” …Of course, Dimon has every reason to expect this: After all, that’s exactly what happened when the adoption of automation by manufacturers began to accelerate. Right? 

14 сентября, 23:50

What a Gloomy Trading Outlook Means for Banks' Q3 Earnings?

Though banks' Q3 earnings will likely hit by weak trading activities, a rising rate environment, upswing in investment banking fees and better mortgage business might lend support.

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14 сентября, 20:43

One Bank Calculates The Odds Of A Market Correction In The Next 3 Months

Yesterday was a historic day for the S&P 500: not only did the index close at a new record high, but it was also 269% higher than its "generational lows" of March 2009, surpassing the 266% increase during the 1949 to 1956 bull market, according to Bloomberg calculations. And while there is no reason to doubt that central bankers - who no longer have anything to lose from blowing the biggest, hopefully last bubble in history - can push this artificial "market" to unprecedented levels, even taking out the top spot of the 1990-2000 market run which saw the S&P rise by over 400%, others are less sanguine, and in recent weeks calls for an imminent correction have become a chorus. After all, it has now been years since there was even a modest drop in the S&P500, resulting in an generation of traders who are unfamiliar with using the sell button (for those asking, one definition of correction vs a crash is that the former follow rich valuations, but only crashes are associated with recessions). That said, any correction forecast needs two components: When and Why? Conveniently, Citi has released an analysis looking at these two variables, and notes that while many economic indicators are poor "predictors" of corrections, there are a handful of reliable signals to keep an eye on. Starting with the "why", the bank writes that there are two things the precede most corrections: i) toppish valuations & waning earnings growth - especially as they impact credit-  of which both are amply present currently... ... and more importantly, ii) when central banks pull the plug, as there have been few corrections without preceding hikes. As a reminder, central banks are pulling the plug as we speak. So putting this into the bank's prop model that calculates the odds of a correction, no really... ... Citi finds that odds of a correction in the next 3 months have now risen to more than 45%. Finally, the bank "helpfully" points out that most correction are associated with a trigger... only in hindsight. Luckily, in retrospect there will have been plenty. Finally, for those who would rather avoid trigger events and prefer to go with their gut, then just look for irrational exuberance. In a market with over $20 trillion in central bank excess liquidity, it should't be  difficult to find.

14 сентября, 19:32

Citigroup's Meneuet Says BOE May Have Case for Unwinding

Sep.14 -- Guillaume Menuet, European economist at Citigroup, discusses the Bank of England's interest rate decision and future moves on unwinding stimulus. He speaks with Bloomberg's Mark Barton on "Bloomberg Markets: European Close."

14 сентября, 11:15

"Markets Have Always Been Wrong" - Jamie Dimon Warns QE's End Will Cause Volatility To Spike

JP Morgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon’s declaration that he would fire any JPM traders whom he knew were trading bitcoin unexpectedly ranked among the most popular stories on several respected financial media websites – despite stiff competition from Apple Inc.’s 10th anniversary product launch. Given what’s transpired in the bitcoin market over the past few days (See “Chinese Bitcoin Trading Soars As Local Exchanges Deny Crackdown Reports”), its unsurprising that Dimon, who spoke publicly at an industry conference hosted by Barclays before sitting for an interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin at Institutional Investor’s Delivering Alpha conference, managed to break through the noise with his comments. During the earlier appearance, he warned investors that J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. trading revenue was on track to fall 20% year-over-year during the third quarter – echoing a similarly downbeat outlook delivered by Citigroup CFO John Gerspach the day before. Dimon’s revelation sent JPM stock tumbling off its highs of the day. Jamie Dimon: There's a huge vacuum if business isn't involved in policy from CNBC. Perhaps it’s understandable, then, that reporters ignored some of the bank CEO’s more prosaic-sounding comments, writing them off as too boring to print. However, in both of his public remarks, Dimon reiterated his view that the coming unwind of the Federal Reserve’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet, and the subsequent “normalization” of interest rates, would revive volatility across markets. Investors, Dimon said, should “hold on to their hats.” Why? Because, as Dimon explains, global central banks have purchased $12 trillion in assets since the crisis, supporting much of the global cross-asset rally. So logically, what would happen if the largest of those central banks were to stop buying? “ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: Does the low volatility, by the way, make sense to you given all of the challenges and headlines in the world today? JAMIE DIMON: Oh, listen, markets are markets. There's low volatility until they're highly volatile. The stock market is high until it goes low. Markets therefore have always been wrong. And I think people are making mistakes. I can give you reasons why it might be low. We've had this fairly consistent, coherent, consistent growth. But forget the geopolitical noise and stuff like that. We're chugging along, 2%. Europe is doing 2%. Russia - I mean, Japan is doing 1.5%, China's doing their 6%. You know, earnings are doing okay. We've had a fairly benign economic environment.   That's a reason. I can give you another reason is that the Central Banks of the world that bought $12 trillion of securities. 12 trillion. Since they started doing QE. And that's only just the U.S. That's an awful lot of security purchases that might - in all things be equal, and remember things are never all equal - can reduce volatility. And there may be other sides that are known. And once other sides happen, watch out. Then volatility goes way up. They'll say they're a genius, they figured out when it's going to happened. I don't guess on which kind of volatility. Like I said, we do a business. And we have to manage the volatility.” But regardless of the market consequences (after all, banks’ trading desks benefit when volatility climbs), the Fed should continue to raise interest rates. And the two hurricanes that just devastated parts of the southern US shouldn’t lead the central bank to pull any punches. “ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: Do you think interest rates should go up by the end of the year, with these hurricanes this fall?   JAMIE DIMON: The hurricanes are irrelevant. I wouldn't have any policy matter as a function of hurricanes. Going to reduce GDP in the short run, they'll probably increase it after that. I'll let the economists figure it out. But almost a $20 trillion economy, that isn't a reason to change monetary policy. It will create a lot of noise in the numbers, but I wouldn't overreact to that.   Advice, it's very sympathetic. We're doing - just so you know, we're going to do a lot for affordable housing, get these people in these states 20,000 people in Florida, 6,000 in Houston. Most of the banks are waiving fees, delaying loan payments, offering special services for your employees and stuff like that.” The Fed should ultimately predicate its decision on the health of the US economy. And with growth steadily picking up, Dimon says, the economy should be able to absorb the borrowing costs without much of a disruption. “The question about rates and QE is always important at the same time, say the why. Okay? So I think rates need to go up. And for as long as the why is because the economy is strong and may be strengthening, that's a good reason. It's not a bad reason.   You know, remember Paul Volcker raised rates, people may have forgotten, 2%, 25 basis points, 2% Sunday night. Not in between meetings. On a Sunday. Okay? And he did it because inflation was going up, the stagflation at the time. That's a bad why. They show if the why is doing well and the jobs are coming back, and people are entering the labor force, the economy will dwarf rates, the importance of rates.   And so far that's what they've been doing. They've been watching the economy and lowering rates. I'm hopeful that will continue because I think rates do need to go up and the economy continues to be stable. You know, people are joining the workforce, a lot of capital, markets are wide open, no major potholes in the American economy. I'm putting geopolitics - that would change if you might treat so many things, so they continue to raise rates, and they start QE. But it's going to help the economy, you'll all be fine.” Dimon warned back in July that traders should brace for volatility to surge after the Fed begins unwinding its balance sheet, pouring cold water on the Fed’s complacency after Patrick Harker said the unwind would be as dull as watching paint dry. Jamie Dimon on regulations: We're talking about calibration from CNBC. “We act like we know exactly how it’s going to happen and we don’t,” he said at the time. 

14 сентября, 02:35

Mike Krieger Asks Which Is 'Fraudulent': Bitcoin Or JP Morgan?

Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog, I’m really grateful JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon decided to once again lash out in anger at Bitcoin, as it provides us with ample opportunity to highlight a practice very near and dear to how the bank operates. Fraud. The way the news cycle works, any topic that isn’t already at the forefront of enough people’s minds will be largely ignored irrespective of its importance. The fact that Jamie Dimon ironically called Bitcoin a fraud, allows us to ask highlight some very important facts about the seemingly systemic fraud inherent in America’s largest bank, JP Morgan. First, let’s take a quick look at some of what Mr. Dimon said. Courtesy of the financial plutocrat network, CNBC: Jamie Dimon has not changed his mind about bitcoin.   Mr. Dimon, the long-time CEO at J.P. Morgan Chase, continued his well-documented criticism of the digital currency bitcoin. Speaking at the Barclays financial services conference on Tuesday, Mr. Dimon was asked whether his bank had a trader who traded bitcoin.   His response? “If we had a trader who traded bitcoin, I’d fire them in a second,” he said. “It’s against our rules” and any trader that deals in them is “stupid.”   Ultimately though, Mr. Dimon said that he thinks Bitcoin is “a fraud” and it “will eventually blow up.” He referenced approvingly the comments of another titan of the traditional markets, Howard Marks, who recently called bitcoin “an unfounded fad.” Of course he hasn’t changed his mind about Bitcoin, and he never will. As he himself noted back in 2014. It’s not the first time Dimon has issued a warning about Silicon Valley businesses.   “They all want to eat our lunch,” he told investors a year ago. “Every single one of them is going to try.” What he once saw as competition, he now seems increasingly terrified of, which is notable in its own right. Beyond that, the most interesting aspect of his recent comments was the use of the word fraud, which provides us with a textbook case of psychological projection. After all, it’s there’s anything Jamie Dimon seems intimately familiar with, it’s fraud. But don’t take my word for it. Financial journalist and author, William Cohan, wrote an important piece earlier this month for Vanity Fair titled, Jamie Dimon’s $13 Billion Secret—Revealed. I thought about sharing it when it was published, but ultimately decided it wouldn’t get the traction it deserved. Fortunately, Dimon’s Bitcoin commentary has propelled him into the spotlight long enough to turn your attention to this very important piece. Indeed, you can barely read a single paragraph without coming into contact with the word fraud, not in relation to Bitcoin, but in myriad descriptions of routine practices at JP Morgan. Here are a few choice excerpts: In November 2013, JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank, agreed to pay a then-record $13 billion fine to federal and state authorities in order to settle claims that it had misled investors in the years leading up to the financial crisis. JPMorgan Chase’s settlement raised many eyebrows on Wall Street. The huge settlement appeared inconsistent with the oft-repeated narrative of the bank’s heroism during the crisis…   People wondered why one of Wall Street’s ostensible white knights would pay $13 billion—$9 billion of its shareholders’ cash, plus another $4 billion in mortgage relief—in a government case…   A number of clues about what had forced Dimon’s hand, however, began emerging soon after the conference call. As I reported in The Nation in 2014, JPMorgan Chase’s settlement came at the end of an intense series of negotiations with a wide range of government officials. Perhaps the most pivotal moment in the conversations occurred in September 2013 when D.O.J. lawyers shared with Dimon and his attorneys a draft of a 92-page civil complaint that Benjamin B. Wagner, the then U.S. attorney in the Eastern District of California, and his colleagues were prepared to file in federal court. The draft complaint—based upon hundreds of thousands of subpoenaed internal JPMorgan documents; and interviews with its bankers, employees in its mortgage-backed securities division, and third-party mortgage originator—alleged that the bank’s due-diligence process had been subverted, and ignored, during the years before the crisis. In Wagner’s narrative, the bank was not nearly the white knight of Wall Street.   No one knew precisely what Wagner’s investigation had uncovered about JPMorgan Chase, however, because his brief was never filed publicly. Within weeks of Wagner sharing a draft copy of the complaint with Dimon—and following a tense face-to-face meeting at the Department of Justice between Dimon and Eric Holder, then the U.S. attorney general—the two sides agreed to the $13 billion settlement, at the time the largest ever. (It has since been surpassed by Bank of America’s $16.65 billion fine, settling similar claims.) In return, the Department of Justice agreed with Dimon and JPMorgan Chase that, among other things, it would not file Wagner’s complaint. Instead, an anodyne 11-page “Statement of Facts” was released. But it didn’t offer a tremendous amount of insight. There’s some banker justice for you. Wall Street C.E.O.s have many reasons for using their shareholders’ money to settle nettlesome lawsuits—from “optics” and brand preservation, to boosting their stock price and keeping embarrassing facts out of the public’s hands. And in the wake of his bank’s $13 billion settlement, Dimon made clear that he was frustrated that the bank had to settle. At a Microsoft C.E.O. summit, Dimon confessed that he “had to control his rage” regarding the topic.   To keen observers, though, it also seemed that he and JPMorgan Chase appeared intent on keeping Wagner’s unfiled complaint out of the public record. The specter of the document becoming public was again raised in a separate court case, when, a few weeks after the Department of Justice announced the settlement with JPMorgan Chase, lawyers for the Federal Home Loan Bank of Pittsburgh, which had sued JPMorgan Chase’s investment bank, along with other defendants, alleging it had sold the bank more than $1.7 billion in squirrelly mortgage-backed securities, wanted a copy of Wagner’s complaint. In fact, a state judge in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, ordered the bank to turn over the draft complaint. But JPMorgan Chase settled the litigation after the judge’s ruling—a settlement that, among other things, included a provision that the draft complaint was to remain private. (Disclosure: after JPMorgan Chase fired me as a managing director in January 2004, I brought—and lost—an arbitration claim against the bank. I also remain in litigation with the bank as the result of a soured investment I made in 1999.)   Now, nearly four years later, as part of a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit initiated by Daniel Novack, an enterprising First Amendment attorney in New York City, the D.O.J. sent Novack a partially redacted copy of Wagner’s curiosity-stoking draft complaint against JPMorgan Chase. Novack provided a copy of the partially redacted complaint to me. “By this action,” the draft complaint begins, “the United States seeks to recover civil penalties” against JPMorgan Chase and its investment banking arm “for a fraudulent and deceptive scheme to package and sell residential mortgage-backed securities” that the bank “knew contained a material amount of materially defective loans.” As the unfiled complaint continued, “JPMorgan knowingly securitized and sold billions of dollars of mortgage loans that were originated in material violation of underwriting guidelines and law.” (When reached for comments and responses to the various allegations in Wagner’s unfiled brief, a spokesperson for JPMorgan Chase told me, “These allegations have been addressed, resolved, or refuted years ago.”) Perhaps I’m delusional, but I think I saw the word fraud in there somewhere. Wagner’s unfiled brief catalogs behavior rather at odds with the public narrative about the bank in the years preceding the crisis. It further asserts that JPMorgan Chase knew that “many of these loans were tainted with fraud” and “knowingly misrepresented” that the loans met its underwriting guidelines, even though they clearly did not, and that the loans had sufficient equity value to collateralize the mortgages even though they did not. Notably, Wagner’s complaint argues that “these fraudulent misrepresentations” cost investors “to suffer billions of dollars in losses.” There’s the pesky word again. Twice in one paragraph, but, but Bitcoin. Worse, the unfiled brief notes, the bank continued to sell mortgage-backed securities even though Dimon himself was worried that the residential mortgage-backed securities market was about to crash. According to Wagner, during the second week of October 2006, Dimon allegedly told King, the co-head of the Securitized Products Group, that he needed to “watch out for subprime”—a reference to low-quality mortgage-backed securities—because he feared that the market “could go up in smoke.” The document also notes that Dimon wanted King to reduce the bank’s exposure to that market. The “impetus” for Dimon’s concern, Wagner continues, was his review of reports from the mortgage-servicing arm of the bank that showed that delinquencies on such mortgages “were rising at an alarming rate.” At Dimon’s “insistence,” the unfiled complaint asserts, “JPMorgan formulated an exit strategy to divest itself” of the riskiest pieces of mortgage-backed securities that had been accumulating on its balance sheet. But, Wagner writes in the draft complaint, “despite knowledge at the highest levels that underwriting had deteriorated across the industry and early payment defaults were spiking, JPMorgan continued to purchase and securitize subprime loans without addressing the known breakdown of its due diligence practices and without disclosing its knowledge to investors.” This is pretty much the exact same thing that Goldman Sachs did leading up to the financial crisis, a practice for which the bank was roundly criticized.   Wagner’s unfiled complaint provided details on 10 allegedly fraudulent mortgage-backed securities that JPMorgan Chase underwrote and sold to investors. (Four of the 10 examples were redacted in the copy the D.O.J. provided to Novack and that Novack provided to me, because “the D.O.J. contends that these paragraphs contain information pertaining to an ongoing investigation,” according to a recent ruling in Novack’s case.)   The draft complaint further stated that the 10 examples “do not encompass the full extent of JPMorgan’s fraudulent scheme.” In one un-redacted example, the U.S. attorney’s office in the Eastern District of California described what happened to a $1 billion security that JPMorgan underwrote in August 2006 that contained more than 5,500 mortgages issued by Countrywide Financial, then an independent public company (and now part of Bank of America). Prior to purchasing the Countrywide pool, one-quarter of the loans were tested by an independent third-party consultant hired by JPMorgan. The third-party evaluator’s report, received by JPMorgan in May 2006, showed that up to 17 percent of the mortgages contained “material” defects, including “excessive” loan-to-value ratios, “incomplete or defective” appraisals, and missing verifications of income, employment, or assets at closing, among other problems.   According to Wagner’s draft complaint, after JPMorgan received the third-party report showing the defects in the mortgages, the company’s bankers “manipulated” the results by re-categorizing the defective mortgages because of “missing documents,” which lowered their risk assessment and made them appear to comply with the bank’s underwriting standards. But, according to Wagner’s unfiled complaint, “these missing documents were not delivered” and despite “knowledge of the material defects in the Countrywide pool,” JPMorgan Chase nevertheless bought 99 percent of the mortgages, and securitized all but seven of them into what became known as JPMAC 2006-CW2. Furthermore, the bank “did not inform investors of material amount of materially defective loans” that created the security. Wagner’s complaint, drafted seven years after the security was issued, noted that JPMAC 2006-CW2 “has suffered hundreds of millions of dollars in cumulative lost principal balance, and more losses are projected.” The complaint noted that although the top tranches of the security were once rated AAA, they had since been downgraded to “junk bond” status or below. And some had defaulted.   In another un-redacted example from Wagner’s complaint, a mortgage-backed security that JPMorgan Chase underwrote in February 2007—relatively late in the cycle—for some $980 million contained around 35 percent of mortgages originated by GreenPoint Mortgage Funding, Inc. The mortgages, which were drawn from two pools with unpaid principal balances of $459 million and $300 million, respectively, had many of the same underwriting flaws as found in the Countrywide mortgages. Once again, JPMorgan hired a third-party consultant to look at a sample of them and to report back to it about their quality. Approximately 25 percent of the sample evaluated came back as containing unacceptable risks because of the low quality of the initial underwriting. According to Wagner’s draft complaint, “JPMorgan had knowledge that a substantial portion of the loans did not comply with the originator’s underwriting guidelines and had a substantial risk of default.” The bank packaged up the GreenPoint mortgages and sold them anyway. In the end, investors suffered “hundreds of millions of dollars” of losses on that one security. In all, the unfiled document concludes, JPMorgan Chase and its investment bank “reaped substantial profits from their fraudulent scheme, having sold over $25 billion in nonprime RMBS”—residential mortgage-backed securities—“certificates backed by toxic loans.” Not only did the bank view fraud as a key revenue driver, but key employees escaped criminal prosecution and came out like bandits. Indeed, Cohan ends his piece with the following observation. Dimon’s pay package for 2013, the year of the big government settlement, was $20 million—a raise of 74 percent from the year before. Certainly, you say, bank executives must have learned lessons from the crisis and reformed their fraudulent ways. Certainly not. Wall Street on Parade did an excellent job of chronicling post-crisis JP Morgan fraud. Here are some examples from the post, What JPMorgan and Citigroup Have in Common When It Comes to Crime: The crime spree at JPMorgan Chase became so surreal that two trial lawyers, Helen Davis Chaitman and Lance Gotthoffer, published a breathtaking book on the subject, comparing the bank to the Gambino crime family. In addition to the settlements noted above, the authors add more details as to what has occurred on Dimon’s watch, such as:   “In April 2011, JPMC agreed to pay $35 million to settle claims that it overcharged members of the military service on their mortgages in violation of the Service Members Civil Relief Act and the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.   “In March 2012, JPMC paid the government $659 million to settle charges that it charged veterans hidden fees in mortgage refinancing transactions.   “In October 2012, JPMC paid $1.2 billion to settle claims that it, along with other banks, conspired to set the price of credit and debit card interchange fees.   “On January 7, 2013, JPMC announced that it had agreed to a settlement with the Office of the Controller of the Currency (‘OCC’) and the Federal Reserve Bank of charges that it had engaged in improper foreclosure practices.   “In September 2013, JPMC agreed to pay $80 million in fines and $309 million in refunds to customers whom the bank billed for credit monitoring services that the bank never provided.   “On December 13, 2013, JPMC agreed to pay 79.9 million Euros to settle claims of the European Commission relating to illegal rigging of benchmark interest rates.   “In February 2012, JPMC agreed to pay $110 million to settle claims that it overcharged customers for overdraft fees.   “In November 2012, JPMC paid $296,900,000 to the SEC to settle claims that it misstated information about the delinquency status of its mortgage portfolio.   “In July 2013, JPMC paid $410 million to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to settle claims of bidding manipulation of California and Midwest electricity markets.   “In December 2013, JPMC paid $22.1 million to settle claims that the bank imposed expensive and unnecessary flood insurance on homeowners whose mortgages the bank serviced.” In contrast, Bitcoin is the fraud killer, and Dimon must know this. Its code is open source, while its supply is capped and distributed in a transparent process. Sure, there are many legitimate criticisms of Bitcoin, but one thing it certainly isn’t is fraud. This is what makes Jamie Dimon’s commentary so fascinating. He must know deep down that the financial system that has made him so fabulously wealthy is the real fraud and that Bitcoin, and technologies like it, threaten that corrupt and destructive paradigm. The more anger Jamie Dimon spews toward Bitcoin, the more confident we should be that we’re the right side of history. Finally, let me end this on a more humorous note with a few tweets that perfectly sum up the situation. My memory is failing, was it Bitcoin or was it JP Morgan that was bailed out by the government? https://t.co/DHqFzr5UJN — Erik Voorhees (@ErikVoorhees) September 12, 2017 BREAKING: CEO of horse and carriage says cars are a fraudulent scam — CRYPTO CO?AIN (@CryptoCobain) September 12, 2017Finally, one from yours truly. Jamie Dimon is like a dinosaur talking trash to the asteroid about to hit him.#bitcoin — Michael Krieger (@LibertyBlitz) September 12, 2017 *  *  * If you liked this article and enjoy my work, consider becoming a monthly Patron, or visit our Support Page (Bitcoin accepted) to show your appreciation for independent content creators.

13 сентября, 20:22

Экс-глава Citigroup предсказал исчезновение трети рабочих мест в банках

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Банковская индустрия сократит около 30 процентов рабочих мест в течение ближайших пяти лет. Такой прогноз дал бывший руководитель банка Citigroup (возглавлял группу во время кризиса 2008 года) Викрам Пандит. По его словам, виновники такого развития событий — роботизация и искусственный интеллект.

13 сентября, 18:25

За 5 лет 30% банкиров могут остаться без работы

Неутешительный прогноз для работников банковской отрасли сделал бывший глава финансовой корпорации Citigroup Викрам Пандит. В интервью Bloomberg TV он заявил, что уже в ближайшие пять лет новые технологии могут оставить без работы 30% банковских служащих.

13 сентября, 18:25

За 5 лет 30% банкиров могут остаться без работы

Неутешительный прогноз для работников банковской отрасли сделал бывший глава финансовой корпорации Citigroup Викрам Пандит. В интервью Bloomberg TV он заявил, что уже в ближайшие пять лет новые технологии могут оставить без работы 30% банковских служащих.

13 сентября, 18:10

Big Banks See Slump in Q3 Trading Revenues on Y/Y Basis

Big banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS), project trading revenues to decline in Q3, impacted by subdued volatility in equity and bond markets.

13 сентября, 17:21

Экс-глава Citi видит в технологиях угрозу для 30% штата банков

(Bloomberg) -- Викрам Пандит, который руководил Citigroup Inc. во время финансового кризиса, сказал, что в ближайшие пять лет из-за развития технологий может исчезнуть около 30 процентов банковских позиций.Искусственный интеллект и роботизация сокращают потребность в специалистах таких отделов, как бэк-офис, сказал 60-летний Пандит в интервью...

13 сентября, 17:09

Oasis Petroleum (OAS) Midstream Unit Files for $150M IPO

Oasis Petroleum (OAS) announces plans to take its Oasis Midstream Partners public by launching an IPO worth $150 million.

13 сентября, 13:51

World Stocks Pull Back Amid Rising Concerns Of A Market Correction

For the first day in three S&P futures have pulled back modestly from record levels as some investors cautioned that gains had gone too far, too fast, European shares are mixed while Asian equities extended their longest rising streak in almost two months as continued gains in Japan and India offset the losses in Hong Kong. The dollar ended a two-day advance as TSY yields dropped in what has become a close correlation trade (see below) while oil and gold rose, perhaps in response to the ongoing plunge in bitcoin. Following yesterday's main, and largely disappointing events - the unveiling of the new iPhone(s) - European shares have faltered as a global equity rally showed signs of flagging, with Apple suppliers struggling after the new iPhone release disappointed with a later than expected shipping date. Chipmakers supplying to Apple were among the worst performers, with AMS down 3.9 percent, while Dialog Semiconductor slipped 1.7 percent and STMicro fell 1.1 percent. Traders said their shares were under pressure due to Apple’s new $999 iPhone X shipping later than expected, on November 3. The price tag could also dent demand for the device in markets such as China. “With the iPhone coming in around $1,000 it will be interesting to see how healthy demand is,” said Mike Bell, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.  “If it’s relatively healthy I think it shows that there is still quite a lot of pricing power for U.S. companies and that consumers have confidence.” Bloomberg writes this morning that record stock prices are provoking concern in some corners of the market, with the number of investors seeking protection from a possible plunge jumping. Leon Cooperman, the billionaire founder of hedge fund Omega Advisors, says a correction could start “very soon.” The imminent reduction of bond purchases by central banks in coming months will put pressure on riskier assets including high-yield bonds and equities, according to Citigroup Inc. According to the latest BofA FMS report, the last month saw the largest jump in market participants "taking out protection" in 14 months. “Central banks will tread carefully and the direct impact of global tapering on the real economy will likely be modest,” Citigroup economists led by Ebrahim Rahbari wrote in a report. “But there is a material risk in our view that major asset price corrections could be triggered by this global tapering,” with U.S. high-yield corporate debt, euro-region periphery sovereign bonds, euro-area corporate bonds, global equities and emerging-market assets most at risk, they wrote. Furthermore, geopolitical concerns also remain after North Korea said it will accelerate its plans to acquire a nuclear weapon that can strike the U.S. homeland in its first response to fresh United Nations sanctions. Earlier, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned the U.S. may impose additional sanctions on China -- potentially cutting off access to the American financial system -- if it doesn’t follow through on the new UN restrictions With all that, Europe's Stoxx 600 index headed for the first drop in six days after U.S. benchmarks and the MSCI All-Country World Index closed at all-time highs a day earlier. Miners led the decline as the price of industrial metals including copper and nickel retreated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.1% with basic materials and consumer discretionary shares rising the most among industry groups. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.3 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated before adding 0.1 percent.  The Topix index rose 0.6 percent at the close in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed and the Kospi index in Seoul finished the session 0.2 percent lower. Among Apple suppliers, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. and Pegatron fell, weighing on the Taiex index, which was down 0.7 percent. AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong also declined. Apple slid along with some of its biggest suppliers on Tuesday.  Japan’s Topix climbed for a third day as investors focused on the local currency’s decline. India’s benchmark S&P BSE Sensex rose to a five-week high, led by the country’s most-valued company Reliance Industries Ltd. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined after nearing the key resistance level of 28,000. “Positive overnight leads support Asian markets to seek continued upside in the day, though we may witness more caution within the region,” Jingyi Pan, a market strategist at IG Asia Pte Ltd, wrote in an note In FX, the overnight session was dominated by a sharp reversal in the pound, with U.K. wages coming in weaker than expected underscored the dilemma facing Bank of England policy makers meeting on Thursday to review interest rates. Meanwhile the theme of inflation uptrend is intact across Europe, with CPI prints in Germany and Spain matching estimates; dollar bulls turn cautious, take some money off the table as market attention turns to U.S. CPI data on Thursday, while Canadian dollar advances as WTI crude rises for a third day; Treasuries and core euro-area bonds trade steady, with brief pressure on bund futures heading into auction supply window. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 2.16 percent.  Germany’s 10-year yield decreased one basis point to 0.39 percent.  Britain’s 10-year yield dipped two basis points to 1.087 percent. West Texas Intermediate crude extended an advance after the International Energy Agency said global oil demand will climb this year by the most since 2015. Gold climbed 0.1 percent to $1,332.60 an ounce. Copper declined 1.6 percent to $2.99 a pound, the lowest in more than three weeks.  The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell less than 0.05 percent to 84.79. Economic data include MBA mortgage applications, PPI and oil inventories. Cracker Barrel and United Natural are reporting earnings Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,493.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 380.43 MSCI Asia up 0.2% to 163.07 MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.08% to 539.04 Nikkei up 0.5% to 19,865.82 Topix up 0.6% to 1,637.33 Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 27,894.08 Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,384.15 Sensex up 0.5% to 32,328.75 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.04% to 5,744.26 Kospi down 0.2% to 2,360.18 German 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to 0.388% Euro up 0.2% to $1.1986 Italian 10Y yield rose 5.6 bps to 1.733% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 1.593% Brent futures up 0.5% to $54.56/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,333.08 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 91.84 Top Overnight News Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is consulting U.S. allies in Europe as he seeks a way to toughen restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program a month before President Trump faces a deadline to decide whether to walk away from what he’s called “the worst deal ever” Germany’s August harmonized CPI remained unchanged at 1.8% in the final print, in line with estimates; Spain August CPI final reading matches forecast In its first official response to new United Nations sanctions, North Korea said it will accelerate its plans to acquire a nuclear weapon that can strike the U.S. homeland North Korea’s latest nuclear test may have been more than twice as powerful as first thought, according to an analysis by 38 North Merkel’s bloc gets 37% support, the lowest for 4 months, in Forsa poll Tuesday’s protests across France won’t deter the government from pushing through its plan to loosen the country’s labor law, Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is in a double bind as she tries to navigate the politics of Brexit while keeping businesses on side: even when she thinks she’s giving companies what they want, they say she’s made it worse Seadrill Ltd., the offshore driller controlled by billionaire John Fredriksen, filed for bankruptcy protection after working out a deal with almost all its senior lenders to inject $1 billion of new money into the company Nordstrom family is said to be close to selecting private equity firm Leonard Green & Partners to help fund a buyout of the company, CNBC says OPEC and its allies are discussing extending by more than three months the oil production cuts that expire in March 2018, potentially prolonging them well into the second half of next year in an effort to boost prices North Korea rejected the latest round of United Nations sanctions on the isolated state, and vowed to accelerate its plans to acquire a nuclear weapon that can strike the U.S. homeland Vikram Pandit, who ran Citigroup Inc. during the financial crisis, said developments in technology could see some 30 percent of banking jobs disappearing in the next five years Denmark faces negative rates until 2020, central bank study says Toshiba Signs Memo With Bain, Struggles to Sell Chip Unit Bain Is Said to Gather $9.4 Billion for New Fund, Topping Target UBS’s Orcel Sees Rocky 2018 For Banks’ Profit as MiFID Kicks In Oil Trades Near $48 as IEA Sees Fastest Demand Growth in 2 Years Bayer Sells $1.4 Billion of Covestro on Path to Separation Trump Premium Gone From U.S. Banks Brings Opportunities: Goldman Pandit Sees 30% of Banking Jobs Disappearing in Next Five Years Deutsche Bank Said to Pledge Cap on U.S. Use of German Deposits Asia equity markets traded mixed as the momentum from Wall St. was counterbalanced by weakness in Apple suppliers following the tech giant’s product event. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) gained at the open after a trifecta of record closes for the S&P 500, DJIA and Nasdaq, with strength in commodity names and financials leading the upside in Australia. Shanghai Comp. (- 0.1%) and Hang Seng (-0.3%) were subdued with underperformance in the Hong Kong benchmark on a continued pull-back from the 28,000 level, while disappointment was also seen across the Apple supply chain after the tech giant’s product announcement. 10yr JGBs were lower as positive risk appetite prevailed in Japan, although downside was stemmed amid the BoJ's presence in the market for just below JPY 1tln of JGBs in 1yr-10yr maturity range. PBOC injected CNY 30bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bln via 28-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5382 (Prev. 6.5277) Top Asian News Record Flows to Bearish ETF Shows Taiwan Equities Skepticism RBA’s Harper Says Growth Too Slow to Justify Rate Increase Baring Private Equity Is Said to Restart Sale of SAI Assurance Coal Stocks Lead Declines by Indonesian Miners on Price Concerns Topix Index Posts Biggest Three-Day Gain Since May on Tech Rally Offshore Yuan Interbank Costs Surge as Banks Seen Hoarding Cash Banker Fees on Japan Post Deal Are Said to Top Tobacco Sale Equity markets trade mixed in Europe, as the FTSE behaves as one of the noticeable underperformers, as both the 100 and 250 struggle amid the pound’s strength yesterday. Sectors see materials underperform, with Glencore and Rio Tinto suffering despite an article from the FT noting market speculation that the two companies merger plans may be revived. The Bund auction will highlight issuance today; the market holds steady as we approach the bidding deadline. However, Portugal and Italy have seen some selling before their respective auctions. Price action has been seen in the UK, as Gilts did see a slight bid ahead of the BoE meeting Thursday, as a result of the marginal miss in the aforementioned UK jobs figures. The UK sold GBP 2.5bln 1.25% in its 2027 Gilt Auction at an average yield 1.161%, b/c 2.25 (Prev. b/c 2.56) and tail 0.2bps Germany sold EUR 2.446bln vs. Exp. EUR 3bln 0.5% 2027 Bund Auction with a b/c 1.6 (Prev. 1.27), average yield 0.39% (Prev. 0.41%) and retention of 18.5% (Prev. 19%) Top European News Merkel Is Said to Want Schaeuble to Keep His Job After Election Novo Sees Earlier China Launch for Diabetes Drug Amid Epidemic Denmark Faces Negative Rates Until 2020, Central Bank Study Says Richemont’s European Sales Disappoint as Asia Races Ahead Swatch Falls After Apple Shows LTE-Enabled Watch In currencies, a nticipation was on the 9.30 UK earnings figures, with slight misses seen in both the average earnings issues. GBP has been thenoticeable mover for the morning, cable still resides around recent highs, as all eyes now move to the BoE tomorrow. The lack of safe-haven flows has continued, with the unwinding of recent positions being the theme of the week. Despite Twitter source comments overnight reporting satellites detected new activity in alternate North Korea tunnel portal areas, suggesting preparations for future underground nuclear tests; no reversal was seen in the risk tone. USD/JPY has continued to trade above 110.00, with the figure behaving as support overnight, bulls will be looking for a break of 110.60 to go on and test 111.00, however, we could see a retest of yesterday’s levels first. UOB are evident of this, placing a long limit order with an entry at 109.80. CHF pairs will be in focus this week with the SNB on Thursday, the mentioned dampening of geopolitical fears in the market have caused some franc selling this week; as USD/CHF looks to trade though 0.9620 and break the Aug 16th downward trendline resistance. EUR/CHF now looks towards August’s high at 1.1537, the bullish attacks could be supported by tone from the SNB tomorrow. ING FX expect the SNB to fan the flames of divergence between itself and the ECB, allowing the rate spreads to widen, one thing to watch tomorrow is if the SNB drop the adverb ‘significantly’ when referring to the strength of CHF. In commodities, OPEC commentary has once again fluttered into the market, resulting in a marginal bullish push in WTI and Brent crude futures. Bullish comments from the Kuwait oil minister stating that producers should comply with output cuts, were met by comments from Venezuela stating that OPEC and Non-OPEC are not close to a deal, yet did state that all options are open for an OPEC-Led supply cut pact.DOE raised 2018 crude outlook world oil demand growth to 1.69mln bpd (Prev. 1.61mln bpd). Qatar’s energy minister Al-Sada said that it is appropriate for OPEC to look at measures beyond March and that participating countries have been successful in implementing commitments. (Newswires) Venezuela President Maduro said Opec/Non-Opec output cuts are likely to extend until March next year. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 3.3% 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%; PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%. PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, prior 1.9% PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.0%; PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.1%, prior 1.8% 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $119.0b deficit, prior $107.1b deficit DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I never thought I'd say these words but man it's good to be back at work. The last two weeks have been wonderful and brutal in equal measures. The best bit has been taking nearly 2 year old Maisie to various clubs and classes. Although if I hear the Hokey Cokey again I'll go nuts. As for the twins (James and Eddie) they are doing well. Identification is tricky apart from the fact that Eddie is smaller as unbeknown to us the cord was wrapped around him in the womb and he stopped growing towards the end of the pregnancy. However he is feeding ok now and slowly starting to put on weight. However not as much as James who treats meal times as the bond market treats QE. In fact feeding is brutal, especially at night. With one baby and a hard working, breast feeding wife I'm ashamed to say you can hide a little bit. However with premature twins there is no hiding place. They feed a minimum of 8 times a day and each feed takes around 90 minutes when you include nappy changes, pass the parcelling, the initial feed, the bottle of previously expressed milk as a top up as they are too small and weak to naturally feed for very long, the burping and comforting, then the new round of expressing fresh milk and then finally the cleaning and sterilisation of all the expressing units and bottles for next time. If this goes well at best you can get 90 minutes sleep between feeds. However more often than not they don't settle and you need to hold them in your arms until they are so asleep they don't notice that you've put them back in their cot. Sometimes the feeds blend into each other. When in their cot whenever you put them down on their backs they naturally roll on their sides to cuddle each other. It is very sweet and we have many images that will take centre stage at their weddings in years to come. All I can say is being a mum to newborns requires a dedication that is astonishing to watch. More so with twins. Although having been ordered around for the last two weeks I'm looking forward to  revenge so my team had better watch out today. So what did I miss? Well in my last EMR It was Jackson Hole, (very) elevated North Korean tensions and stress about the debt ceiling that was dominating markets. As it stands the fact that we have freshly agreed UN sanctions probably puts the ball back in the North Korean's court in so far as the risk of unilateral and immediate US action has thus been reduced. Clearly if NK provokes the situation it will become a live issue again but as it stands the US is highly unlikely to make the next move. At the same time the debt ceiling has obviously been pushed out and with the devastating hurricane perhaps causing less havoc than that feared before the weekend, markets continue to take some safe haven hedges off the table. Indeed 10 year USTs and Bunds have now climbed 14bp and 11bp off their intra-day lows from Friday (+4bp and +6bp yesterday). The bond market sell off received an extra push yesterday with the UK August inflation print which surprised on the upside. Headline inflation rose 0.6% mom (vs. 0.5% expected), but the bigger surprise was core inflation which increased 0.6% mom, lifting through-year inflation to 2.7% yoy (vs. 2.5% expected) – the highest reading since December 2011. Within the details, the inflation pick up was led by clothing and footwear (+4.6% yoy) and prices for household goods (+4.2% yoy). Elsewhere, the PPI and retail price index were also higher than expected, with PPI at 0.4% mom (vs. 0.1% expected) and RPI at 0.7% mom (vs. 0.5% expected). In response, Gilts were sold off with yields up 9bp to 1.132%, Sterling rallying 0.91% versus the Greenback and the chance of a rate hike next February rising from 44% to 61% (per the Bloomberg calculator). To be fair, other sovereign bond yields were also higher, in part driven by the improving risk sentiment. Core and peripheral bond yields increased 3-7bp across the maturities, with Bunds (2Y: +3bp; 10Y: +6bp), French OATs (2Y: +3bp; 10Y: +7bp), Italian BTPs (2Y: +3bp; 10Y: +6bp) and Portuguese (2Y: +3bp; 10Y: +5bp) yields all higher Elsewhere, US bond yields were modestly higher yesterday (2Y: +2bp; 10Y: +4bps), but  have rallied 1bp this morning. Although the inflation print is not going to change the BOE policy rate tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how much of a hawkish tone we get. For those who may have missed it, DB’s Mark Wall has outlined his expectations for the BOE rate decision tomorrow. The team continues to expect the BoE to remain on hold until uncertainty about the Brexit transition diminishes, as too many aspects of the policy trade-off hinge on the outcome. For more details Continuing on the inflation theme, the Swedish inflation print for August wasn’t as weak as feared at -0.2% mom (vs. -0.3% expected) yesterday and later on today, we will get the US PPI reading where our team expect a 0.2% mom print at the core level, which will likely see annual inflation rise three-tenths to 2.1% yoy. All this before the main event of the week tomorrow namely the US’s August CPI inflation reading. Can we buck a trend that has seen US inflation undershoot expectations for 5 months? Now shifting to the very long term, Austria has just sold €3.5bn of 100 year debt in the largest European century bond sale to date. I'm prepared to predict that none of us reading this will be around to see the bond mature, but it’s worth noting that Austria only became an independent republic again 62 years ago (as the second republic). Investor demand was reportedly strong, with bids reaching €11bn. The deal was priced at a yield of 2.112%, which compares favourably to other recent similar maturity bonds, including: Belgium (€0.1bn bond at 2.057%), Ireland (€0.1bn at 2.116%), Mexico (€1.5bn at 4.21%) and Argentina (US$2.75bn at 7.19%). Moving on, this morning in Asia, markets are a little mixed but generally slightly higher as we go to print, with the Nikkei (+0.47%), ASX 200 (+0.25%), Kospi (+0.16%) leading the way but with the Hang Seng -0.46% and Chinese bourses only c.0.1% higher. US equity futures are pointing to a slightly softer start. This follows US bourses strengthening to another record high last night with the S&P +0.34% and both the Dow and Nasdaq up c.+0.3%. Within the S&P, only the utilities (-1.75%) and real estate sector were in the red, likely reflecting the higher bond yields, while gains were driven by the Telco and financials space. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose for the fifth consecutive day (+0.52%), which the longest streak since April. Across the region, the DAX (+0.40%), CAC (+0.62%) rose but the FTSE dipped 0.17% likely due to the strength in Sterling. Indeed turning to currencies, most of the action was with Sterling after being up 0.79% versus the Euro and +0.91% versus the USD and to a one year high which slightly eases the pain of buying the new iPhone X! Elsewhere, the US dollar index was marginally higher while the Euro/USD edged up 0.12%. In commodities, WTI oil was 0.33% higher following reports that OPEC producers may extend production cuts. Precious metals were slightly higher (Gold +0.32%; Silver +0.56%) and industrial metals also rose modestly with Copper (+0.42%), Zinc (+1.16%) and Aluminium (+2.70%). Away from the markets and onto the US tax reform. The messaging continues to be a little mixed. On the one hand Treasury Secretary Mnuchin recognized that “there is no question that the stock market has an expectation we are going to get tax reform done….and we are going to create significant growth…which is what this President and administration is focused on”. Further, he has also signalled that new tax rules could be backdated to January. However, in terms of finer details, Mnuchin echoed similar comments by House Speaker Ryan in that the corporate tax rate will be lower, but unlikely to be as low as the 15% originally envisaged by President Trump. Mnuchin said “I don’t know if we’ll be able to achieve that (15%) given budget issues, but we’re going to get this down to a very competitive level”. Circling back to Brexit. Negotiators have confirmed that next week’s scheduled Brexit talks have been postponed one week to 25 September, with the aim to give both sides more time to ensure they make progress when they reconvene. The delay adds credence to prior reports that PM Theresa May was preparing to make an “important intervention / speech” on the 21st to kick start the talks. Elsewhere, Chancellor Phillip Hammond noted that the UK is seeking a transitional deal which keeps the “status quo”, where the UK keep its access to the EU single market after it departs. Notably, with the Tory Party conference also due in early October, some form of circuit breaker to the talks is likely required to meet the tight deadlines for an EU summit in October. We shall find out soon. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the July JOLTS report showed the number of job vacancies rose to a new high of 6.17m (vs. 6m expected). Elsewhere, the NFIB small business confidence index remained upbeat and was above market at 105.3 (vs. 104.8 expected). Over in France, the 2Q total payrolls was a tad lower at 0.3% qoq (vs. 0.4% expected) and Italy’s 2Q unemployment rate came in at 11.2% (vs. 11.3% expected). Looking at the day ahead, the final reading on Germany’s August inflation will be out early in the morning (0.2% mom and 1.8% yoy expected). Then the Eurozone’s July IP and 2Q employment stats are due. Elsewhere, over in the UK, the ILO unemployment rate for July (4.4% expected), claimant count rate and jobless claims change stats are due. In the US, the PPI for August (2.1% yoy for core expected), monthly budget statement and MBA mortgage applications stats are also due. Onto other events, the EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will deliver the state of the union address in France.

13 сентября, 12:49

Новые технологии оставят без работы треть банковских служащих

Экс-глава финансовой корпорации Citigroup Викрам Пандит считает, что уже в ближайшие пять лет новые технологии могут оставить без работы 30% банковских служащих. Свое заявление финансист сделал в эфире Bloomberg TV. По мнению господина Пандита, который сейчас возглавляет собственную инвесткомпанию Orogen Group, роботизация, искусственный интеллект и машинное обучение заметно сократят потребность в использовании человеческих ресурсов в банковском деле, особенно в операционных отраслях. «Все, что мы сейчас видим в области искусственного интеллекта, робототехники и использование естественного языка (взамен языка машинных кодов.— “Ъ”),— все это делает процессы значительно легче. Все это изменит работу бэк-офиса»,— считает Викрам Пандит, возглавлявший Citigroup в сложный период 2007–2012 годов, когда мировой финансовый рынок переживал кризис.Как известно, в последние несколько лет новые технологии уже заметно изменили банковскую систему — растущая популярность интернет-банкинга и мобильных приложений позволяет…

13 сентября, 12:49

Новые технологии оставят без работы треть банковских служащих

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Экс-глава финансовой корпорации Citigroup Викрам Пандит считает, что уже в ближайшие пять лет новые технологии могут оставить без работы 30% банковских служащих. Свое заявление финансист сделал в эфире Bloomberg TV. По мнению господина Пандита, который сейчас возглавляет собственную инвесткомпанию Orogen Group, роботизация, искусственный интеллект и машинное обучение заметно сократят потребность в использовании человеческих ресурсов в банковском деле, особенно в операционных отраслях. «Все, что мы сейчас видим в области искусственного интеллекта, робототехники и использование естественного языка (взамен языка машинных кодов.— “Ъ”),— все это делает процессы значительно легче. Все это изменит работу бэк-офиса»,— считает Викрам Пандит, возглавлявший Citigroup в сложный период 2007–2012 годов, когда мировой финансовый рынок переживал кризис.Как известно, в последние несколько лет новые технологии уже заметно изменили банковскую систему — растущая популярность интернет-банкинга и мобильных приложений позволяет…

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13 сентября, 06:53

Pandit Calls China Payment Firms' Success Breathtaking

Sep.12 -- Former Citigroup CEO and Orogen Group Chairman and CEO Vikram Pandit discusses the future of banking and fintech. He speaks with Haslinda Amin on "Bloomberg Markets."

12 сентября, 20:37

JPM Warns Trading Revenue To Tumble 20% In Q3, May Halt Trading Revenue Guidance

Yesterday it was Citi's turn: Citigroup CFO Brian John Gerspach warned that the bank's markets revenue in the third quarter which is ending in less than three weeks, will be down 15%, as the third quarter "is lacking the volatility that pushed revenue higher in third quarter of 2016" underscoring as he did last quarter, that volatility remains “subdued." As we said yesterday, "for that he, and his other banker peers, can thank the central banks, who have made selling vol and BTFD the only two concepts an entire generation of traders is aware of." Not even 24 hours later we got another confirmation that to every Fed VIX slam, there is now an opposite revenue reduction by the Big US banks, which desperately need volatility to boost their sales and trading business. Moments ago JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon spoke at the Barclays financial conference, where he said that trading revenue in Q3 was on pace to drop by 20% Y/Y, and worse, the CEO said he is considering halting guidance on trading revenue. This disclosure by JPM concludes a bizarre day in which first Goldman accelerated its pivot to a bricks and mortar retail bank, and now America's most powerful bank, JPMorgan, is warning that at a time of all time market highs and a "roaring, coordinated" global recovery, its top line is not only slumping, but it either does not have visibility or simply does not want to disclose it... which is worse. JPM stock, while dropping initially, has promptly rebounded as the BTFD algos immediately filled the gap.

23 марта 2016, 14:15

HSBC и Citi думают о деньгах с вертолетов

HSBC, Citigroup и Commerzbank задумались о "деньгах с вертолетов". Идею прямого экстренного стимулирования потребительского спроса еще в 1969 г. предложил нобелевский лауреат Милтон Фридман.

26 июня 2015, 11:49

Швеция: первый официальный провал QE в истории

Об опасности программ количественного смягчения сейчас не говорит только ленивый, но буквально еще пару лет назад такое мнение высказывали только очень смелые экономисты. Пример Швеции стал первым официальным подтверждением того, что QE неэффективно.

17 октября 2013, 00:13

Цирк ушел на каникулы...

...но обещал вернуться... Лидеры сената США смогли достигнуть соглашения по возобновлению работы правительства и отвести угрозу дефолта, передает Financial Times. ... Сенаторы согласовали план, по которому лимит госдолга будет повышен до 7 февраля, госведомства будут финансироваться до 15 января, а к 13 декабря законодатели должны договориться о сокращении бюджетного дефицита.http://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/news/17581821/senatory-praktcheski-soglasovali-plan#ixzz2hupntMR2 Пока они не проголосуют в Палате представителей, торопиться не стоит, но по всем заявлением решение принято... по традиции... в "последний" день. Конкретных параметров пока нет, но республиканцы в итоге отступили. Ставки по месячным векселям резко скорректировались, если вчера рыночные ставки долетели до 0.32% годовых, то сегодня они 0.15%, а размещение векселей прошло по медианной ставке 0.19% годовых с хорошим спросом (Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 4.33, хотя и объем размещения был скромный - всего $20 млрд). Как оказалось, их взлет перед этим был обусловлен сбросом бумаг со стороны Fidelity Investments и JPMorgan, от покупок краткосрочных векселей отказался и Citigroup, решили перестраховаться. Баффет,в очередной раз, назвал происходящее идиотизмом, рынок за этим идиотизмом наблюдал с завидным спокойствием: "чем бы дитя не тешилось...". Fitch на всякий случай поставили рейтинг США на пересмотр с понижением. Пресса билась в истерии вокруг "17-е октября все ближе - дефолт все ближе", хотя никакого дефолта 17-го быть не могло (если сам Минфин его не сделает)... и 18-го и ... немного раньше все даты раскладывал и нет смысла повторяться, на 15 октября у Минфина было $39 млрд и до 23 октября он бы вполне протянул, возможно, даже без сокращения расходов. После утверждения решения (если оно будет принято) демократы и республиканцы должны создать комиссию, которая будет обсуждать вопрос и к середине декабря должны решить бюджетный вопрос, подобный опыт в 2011 году привел к тому, что долго решали и ничего не решили, в итоге вступил в силу автоматический секвестр бюджета... так что возвращение цирка к декабрю-январю очень и очень вероятно. P.S.: ФРС предстоит усиленно думать над решениями, особенно если цирк вернется к декабрю-январю. 

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11 апреля 2013, 09:02

США: Citigroup и Goldman Sachs получили "минутки" ФРС раньше остальных участников рынка

Как стало известно, ряд банков, включая Citigroup и Goldman Sachs Group, получили "минутки" последнего заседания ФРС на 19 часов раньше остальных участников рынка. Представители Федрезерва сообщили, что преждевременная рассылка произошла случайно.

29 января 2013, 14:39

ФРС опубликует результаты стресс-тестов 7 марта

Федеральная резервная система 7 марта опубликует результаты банковских стресс-тестов, которые покажут, насколько устойчивы американские финансовые институты.Условия стресс-тестов для банков США Всего в рамках реформы финансовой системы Додда-Фрэнка, стресс-тесты пройдут 19 крупнейших банков США. Кредитные учреждения должны показать достаточность капитала на случай наступления экономической рецессии. Финансовые власти обязали проходить мониторинг банки, чей капитал составляет от $50 млрд.14 марта появятся более подробное описание результатов проверки финансового сектора. Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (так называется программа стресс-тестирования) началась в ноябре 2012 г. Всего Федрезерв планирует проверить 30 банков.В сценарий стресс-теста заложено крайне негативное развитие событий: увеличение безработицы с текущих 7,8% до 12%, падение цен на фондовые активы на 50%, падение цен на недвижимость на 20% и снижение ВВП на 5%. Результаты своих стресс-тестов кредитные организации должны представить до 7 января.Результаты стресс-теста ФРС США. Минимальная достаточность капитала: 5% ФРС заявляет, что 19 банков должны были повысить свой капитал до $803 млрд по сравнению с $420 млрд в 2009 г.Напомним, что в ходе предыдущей проверки, которая состоялась в марте, у 4 системообразующих банков, в том числе и Citigroup, выявили недостаток капитала, вследствие чего глава Citi Викрам Пандит лишился своего поста.Еще один немаловажный момент: финансовым организациям, которые не прошли стресс-тесты в прошлый раз, сейчас запрещено платить дивиденды и проводить обратный выкуп акций, хотя желание такое у них есть. Ожидается, что по результатам стресс-тестов будет вновь подниматься вопрос о снятии этого запрета.

17 января 2013, 18:33

Прибыль Citigroup выросла на 25,5%

Один из крупнейших банков США - Citigroup Inc. - зафиксировал рост чистой прибыли в IV квартале текущего года.Прибыль за отчетный период составила $1,2 млрд, или $0,38 в расчете на акцию, что на 25,5% ниже по сравнению с показателями прошлого года, когда прибыль за аналогичный период достигла $956 млрд, или $0,31 на акцию.Результат оказался хуже ожиданий экспертов, поскольку прибыль Citigroup без учета разовых факторов и налоговых льгот составила $0,69 на акцию, в то время как аналитики прогнозировали показатель в $0,96 на акцию.Выручка Citigroup увеличилась на 6% до $18,2 млрд с $17,2 млрд годом ранее.

19 ноября 2012, 11:14

Citigroup вновь сокращает штат

Один из крупнейших банков США - Citigroup Inc. - планирует сократить штат инвестиционно-банковского подразделения на 300 человек в текущем году. В прошлом году Citigroup Inc. сократил 900 рабочих мест (5% штата) инвестиционно-банковского подразделения по всему миру на фоне падения показателей выручки и рентабельности. Во время финансового кризиса 2008-2009 гг. Citi проводил массовые увольнения, однако затем стал переманивать специалистов с высокой квалификацией у конкурентов, чтобы восстановить долю рынка.

29 октября 2012, 19:17

Дети вице-президента CNBC были убиты на следующий же день после публикации каналом скандальной статьи

На этой неделе новостная организация CNBC привлекла внимание мейнстрим-СМИ к крупнейшему в истории США иску об отмывании денег и рэкете, в рамках которого «банкстеры» и их партнёры по рэкету обвиняются в полученных нечестным путём доходах в размере 43 триллионов долларов.В иске говорится, что в дело вовлечены должностные лица, находящиеся на самых высоких постах в правительстве и финансовом секторе.После того, как эта информация удивительным образом оказалась в мейнстрим-новостях, начались разворачиваться весьма подозрительные события.В течение нескольких часов исходная страница, где размещался материал, была удалена, а старший вице-президент CNBC Кевин Крим получил известие о том, что его дети были убиты при очень загадочных обстоятельствах.Похоже, сначала произошло убийство, затем была удалена страница.По сообщениям основных СМИ, в убийстве детей виновна няня, которая предположительно зарезала обоих детей.Те же источники новостей сообщают о том, что после убийства няня якобы сама себе перерезала горло.Полиция обнародовала очень мало информации, и хотя весь случай целиком пока не был озвучен официально, кажется вполне вероятным, что убийства, это не что иное, как демонстрация силы против прессы из-за публикации такой убийственной информации о самых влиятельных людях в мире.Вот некоторая информация об иске с вебсайта Marketwatch:«В рамках судебного процесса в окружном суде юридической фирмой Spire Law Group, действующей от лица домовладельцев страны и налогоплательщиков Нью-Йорка, а также в соответствии с законами о компенсации налогоплательщику, коллективный деликтный иск (иск о взыскании истекающих из причинения вреда обязательств; прим. mixednews.ru) был расширен на федеральный суд Бруклина, Нью-Йорк, в стремлении прекратить все конфискации по ипотеке в пределах страны вплоть до решения по возврату 43 триллионов долларов ($43,000,000,000.00) «банкстерами» и их сообщниками, также в рамках дела были выдвинуты требования на аудит ФРС и всех «спасательных программ» бывего генерального инспектора программы TARP Нейла Барофски, который заявил, что никакие из денег в рамках программы TARP и других «спасательных денег», выделявшихся из казны, никогда не были погашены, несмотря на заверения ответчиками в обратном, а также аналогичные публичные заверения на национальном телевидении президентом Обамой и администрацией президента Обамы, и в более частном порядке Конгрессу Соединённых штатов.Поскольку администрация Обамы уголовно не преследует никого из «банкстеров», и по сути активно занимает у этих же «банкстеров» деньги для кампании г-ны Обамы, национальная группа инициирующих дело истцов-домовладельцев была вынуждена расширить свой иск, включив рэкет, отмывание денег и преднамеренные нарушения санкций в отношении Ирана и Закона об эмбарго национальными банками, включенными в число ответчиков-»банкстеров».Одними из предполагаемых заговорщиков являются Генеральный прокурор Холдер, помощник генерального прокурора Тони Вест, бывший губернатор Нью-Джерси Джон Корзайн, бывший министр финансов и один из банкстеров Роберт Рубин, министр финансов Тимоти Гейтнер, Викрам Пандит (недавно ушедший в отставку опальный председатель совета директоров Citigroup), старший советник Белого дома Валери Джарретт, бывший «директор по коммуникациям» в администрации Обамы Анита Данн, муж Аниты Данн и главный юрисконсульт предвыборной кампании Обамы Роберт Бауэр, а также сами «банкстеры», и их аффилированные и доверенные лица.Ожидается, что все новости на эту тему с CNBC будут удалены, и другим новостным источникам воспрепятствуют в освещении этой информации. Тем не менее, сохранились скриншоты оригинальной статьи на CNBC, подтверждающие подлинность этой истории.Это второй случай на этой неделе, в котором высокопоставленные руководители стали жертвой подозрительного нападения, которое очень напоминает заказное убийство.The Telegraph 25 октября сообщил о том, что в Брюсселе 60-летний руководитель в нефтяной компании ExxonMobil Николас Мокфорд был застрелен на глазах у своей жены.http://mixednews.ru/archives/26036 

23 октября 2012, 05:40

Консолидированные результаты бангстеров

На данный момент одно из самых быстро сокращающихся подразделений у бангстеров в плане эффективности и отдачи - это трейдинговое подразделение. Все, что связано с торговлей акциями, долговыми бумагами, валютой, сырьем, деривативами - все падает. Исторический максимум по доходам от торговли пришелся на 2009 год - в тот самый момент, когда бангстеры в полной мере загрузились по самым минимумам после собственноручно созданной паники. Ну и все.Ниже суммарные результаты для шести американских банков (JPM + C + BAC + WFC + GS +MS). Кликните, чтобы в более высоком разрешении посмотреть.Деньги на рынке закончились. Прибыль бангстеров по торговыми счетам равна убытку других участников торгов. С марта 2000 по июнь 2007 они отжали 282.5 млрд долларов зафиксированной прибыли - именно на такую сумму другие трейдеры понесли убытки. С сентября 2007 по сентябрь 2012 забрали еще 216.2 млрд. За последние 3 года с 2009 отдача упала почти в 4 раза (!). Все, приехали. Всех опустошили. Всем спасибо, все свободны. Массовый уход клиентов с рынка, институциональных фондов и частных трейдеров привел к тому, что обороты торгов упали до минимумов за 7-10 лет. Еще хорошо, что активность на долговом и валютном рынках сохраняется. На фондовом рынке все крайне скверно. Там уже нет никаких уровней, интереса контрагентов. Это полностью искусственная среда. При отсутствии активности могут рисовать абсолютно любые уровни, что подтверждает сильнейший 3 квартал в плане роста S&P за 15 лет. Минуточку. Самый сильный рост за 15 лет на фоне самого слабого отчетного квартала для корпораций за целое десятилетие, не считая острой фазы кризиса?! В удивительное время мы живем. Правда, крыться все равно не об кого. Благо, что ФРС помогает. Но одним благо, другим вообще дело до этого нет. Не кажется ли вам ситуация критической, когда при наиболее благоприятной ситуации банки показывают столь омерзительные результаты? Лучше конъюнктуры, чем сейчас уже не будет. В самом деле, не каждый же год обеспечивать рост S&P на 20% при хаях на долговом рынке?Т.е. предельно тепличные условия. Тут и крыло взаимопомощи от ФРС в виде неограниченного впрыска ликвидности с готовностью выкупить по номиналу любое дерьмо в любой момент по первому требованию, и конъюнктура благоприятствующая (фондируются под ноль, рынки на исторических максимумах). Кроме того, Бен Бернанке начал говорить об оживлении кредитования! Казалось бы. Если не сейчас прибыль генерировать, то когда еще? Сейчас в США нет организаций, которые бы дотировались столь агрессивно, как первичные дилеры. Абсолютно тепличные условия.Пока JPM и WFC вытягивают ситуацию. Объективно, они сейчас лучшие среди остальных. Вот если посчитать тоже самое, но для GS + MS + BAC + CХудшие результаты с кризиса 2008 тогда, когда созданы все условия для генерации прибыли?Если это не начало конца, тогда что же? В принципе, за последние 5 лет стало понятно, что текущий формат финансовой системы себя изжил. Они пытались протянуть за счет допинга от центробанков, но не работает. Когда было создано все возможное для запуска системы, когда устранили конкурентов и монополизировали отрасль, когда взяли банкиров под тотальную опеку центробанков? И вот после этого такие результаты?! Мне как то страшно за будущее западных банков.Стоит учесть, что помимо трейдинга сокращается все остальное. Процентная маржа сжимается. Борьба за клиентов и заемщиков приводит к понижению кредитных ставок, что сокращает чистую процентную маржу. Ранее, во многом благодаря высокой марже (разрыву между фондированием и кредитованием) банки относительно успешно пережили кризис. Этот фактор нивелируется. Банковские услуги также стагнируют, что видно на графиках выше.И еще. Пусть никого не пугает всплеск доходов в 2009-2010. Надо учесть укрупнение банков. Произошли слияния и поглощенияJPMorgan + Washington Mutual (2008) + Bear Stearns (2007) + Bank One (2004)Bank of America + Merrill Lynch (2008) + Countrywide Financial (2008)Wells Fargo + Wachovia (2008)Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley забрали долю рынка и активы Lehman Brothers, не считая сотен более мелких обанкротившихся контор

Выбор редакции
16 октября 2012, 03:58

Состояние Citi

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Меня не покидает ощущение, что Wall St концентрирует в себе все худшее, что может быть в человеческой натуре. Все слабости и пороки. Надо иметь обширное повреждение мозга или как минимум быть укуренным в хлам, чтобы в отчете Citi найти что нибудь позитивное и оправдать практически годовой максимум акций и 5% дневной рост акций на фоне полного бардака в финансах компании.Рассказ стоит начать с того, что квартальная прибыль Citi была буквально вынута из карманов налогоплательщиков. Пока народ скрежет по сусекам, пытаясь изыскать несколько дополнительных баксов, платя налоги, то бравые парни из Citi дотируются за счет федерального бюджета вот уже пять добрых лет.За 3 квартал они слили несколько (1.9) миллиардов долларов на их безбашенных инвестициях черт знает куда и зафиксировали общий убыток за квартал в 964 млн. Это не проблема. За счет налогового вычета им компенсировали 1.5 млрд и конечная чистая прибыль составили 493 млн.Так как Citi является "национальным достоянием" США, то эта компания может не платить налоги, но даже дальше можно пойти. США должны платить Citi за то, что эта чудная компания существует. С 2007 года Citi разучились вести бизнес и стали генерировать стабильные убытки. Чтобы поддержать Citi на плаву, тоCiti получил в период с декабря 2007 по декабрь 2009 налоговых вычетов на 34.5 млрд долларов. Это абсолютно беспрецедентная дотация за всю историю существования США, как государства. Чтобы оценить масштаб беспредела, то достаточно посмотреть на кумулятивные уплаченные налоги за последние 5 лет. К настоящему моменту из правительства было получено более 28 млрд. Bank of America, как второе достояние США также не платит налоги. Citi был рекапитализирован за счет ФРС и правительства на 88.5 млрд. Эти деньги пошли в капитал банка.Citi использовал кредитные механизмы ФРС в острую фазу кризиса на пике до 99.5 млрд долларов. По данным ФРС, эти деньги были возвращены.Citi использовал дополнительную помощь от казначейства США на 45 млрд долларов. Частично деньги вернулись в минфин.Citi активно участвовал в распределение денег от программ QE1, QE2, QE3Итого по факту от ФРС и казначейства к настоящему моменту чистая помощь была оказана в размере 28 млрд (налоговых вычетов) + 88.5 млрд (рекапитализация) = 116.5 млрд. Круто, да? )) Это не считая помощи от QE операций.Отчет Citi в высшей степени омерзителен абсолютно по всем ключевым статьям и пунктам. Это буквально плавучее дерьмо.Не смотря на то, что ФРС с остервенением лупит по экономике баксом вот уже 4 года подряд, каждая новая программа оказывается все менее эффективной по сравнению к предыдущей. Это видно и по торговым операциям двух крупнейших игроков, которые отчитались к настоящему моменту. Если JPM снизил эффективность, но хоть имитирует напряженную борьбу, то Citi скатывается куда то в зад. До креатива 2008 года еще далеко, но банк делает отчаянные попытки повторить былой подвиг по оформлению годовых убытков по торговым операциям.Результаты Citi по объему выручки – это просто мерзость какая-то. Совокупный доход активно пикирует на дно, но еще скажите спасибо тому, что чистый процентный доход достаточно высок. Почему он высок? Все очень просто. Чистая процентная маржа стала выше, чем раньше за счет того, что фондируются они под ноль процентов, а выдают кредиты относительно дорого. Это преимущественно заслуга ФРС и низких процентных ставок. А вот если исключить этот фактор и посмотреть на конкретную деятельность Citi по оказанию финансовых услуг, то вы увидите полный провал (красная линия на графике ниже). Многолетний минимум и без каких либо признаков улучшения.Так откуда они взяли якобы прибыль?Во первых, как я сказал, они налоги не платят, а только берут деньги из казначейства. Это весомый фактор итоговой чистой прибыли.Во-вторых. Непроцентные операционные расходы стагнируют и находятся возле минимумов. Банк экономит на всем, что только можно, но даже это не помогает делу. Оптимизация издержек идет, но толку мало.В-третьих. Они снизили отчисления в резервы на потери по ссудам.Вот, любуйтесь..Если же вы думаете, что балансовые показатели улучшились, то ошибаетесь. Потреб.кредиты продолжают сокращение, корпоративные немного растут, но в целом ничего хорошего.C отчетом JPM можно ознакомиться у Димы В прошлом посте календарь отчетностей с ошибками. Это Гугл левые данные дал. Тогда лучше здесь смотреть http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/earnings-calendar.aspx