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24 февраля, 15:18

Is the border adjustment tax a good idea?

Probably not, so say Fichtner, de Rugy, and Michel, here is one bit: The efficiency claims of proponents rely on several key assumptions that are required for the tax to be non-distortionary. Mainly, the border adjustment must be implemented completely, and international currency markets must fully adjust. For example, the US dollar would need to […] The post Is the border adjustment tax a good idea? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

24 февраля, 14:46

Dow Streak Of Record Highs In Danger As S&P Slides; Gold Surges

The near-record string of 10 consecutive Dow Industrials record highs, a streak not seen since early 1987, may be about to end if futures, which are currently trading -0.3% lower, fail to stage a rebound. Global markets started off Friday on the back foot, with most Asian markets dropping, while commodity-related sectors and banks led European shares lower for a third straight session on Friday as the dollar was poised for a weekly loss as the latest attempt to spark the "Trumpflation trade" fizzled, sending gold to $1,256, the highest since the US presidential election, as the dollar slumped following Mnuchin's comments. Investors are turning cautious as European political risks remain and ahead of a major speech from U.S. President Donald Trump next week. The big mover in commodities is Gold which has solidly jumped above the $1,250 level, a largely USD-based move, as risk sentiment rose despite the weaker greenback, but sustainability as these levels (Gold) are key over coming sessions. Gold's rise for a fourth week was aided by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who said Thursday he expects low borrowing costs to persist, sparking a drop in the dollar. Mnuchin also took the edge off the recent market optimism when he said any policy steps by the Trump administration would probably have only a limited impact this year. The comments, made in his first televised interviews since taking office last week, suggested much work was still needed on a sweeping tax reform plan that Mnuchin called his main priority. "Mnuchin's comments were less belligerently reflationary than they could have been, in a dollar strength context, and that probably did much of the damage (to the dollar)," said UBS Wealth Management currency strategist Geoffrey Yu, in London. Concerns about the credibility of Trump's tax plan also emerged: “Next week it will be three weeks since President Trump promised something ‘phenomenal’ with respect to tax reform and investors are starting to become a little restless,” Michael Hewson, the London-based chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said in a report. If Trump’s speech next week fails to provide details, “then the rally that we’ve seen in the past three months could become susceptible to some profit-taking,” he said. As a result, a fifth weekly gain for global equities that’s helped push their value above $70 trillion is losing momentum as money managers grapple with political uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s schedule for lifting borrowing costs. Traders are taking profits before Trump’s address to House and Senate lawmakers Tuesday in the U.S. European shares slid after subdued forecasts from European bluechips including BASF and Vivendi and a drop in mining shares, while Standard Chartered was among the worst performers in the FTSE 100 as profits fell short of analyst expectations. RBS also trades in the red after the bank announced a whopping GBP 7bIn loss for 2016. Elsewhere, French telecom giant Vivendi is the notable laggard across Europe amid reports that Milan prosecutors are looking in the company over alleged market manipulation in stake building in MediaSet. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.3 percent as of 10:06 a.m. in London, dropping for a third day and paring a weekly advance. London copper prices recovered slightly from their big overnight fall on the back of fresh doubts about Chinese demand. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 was up 0.8 percent at $5,907 a tonne by 0700 GMT after falling 3 percent in the previous session. Japan’s Topix index lost 0.4 percent. The gauge rose 0.4 percent for the week. Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent. The index rose less than 0.1 percent on Thursday, while the Dow posted a 10th day of gains, its longest streak of record closes since 1987. Oil prices fell after U.S. crude inventories rose for a seventh week, showing the market is still struggling to ease oversupply despite producers' efforts to rein in output. Benchmark Brent crude oil was down 48 cents at $56.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate traded at $54.06 a barrel, down 39 cents. In rates, German bonds were supported as credit spreads widened. German two-year yields dropped three basis points, with the ECB’s bond-buying program seen supporting the sector. Having routed the French bond market recently, sellers are now focusing on Italy where the German-Italian 10Y spread rose above 200 bps. The swap spread rose to new records across the two- to five-year sector. A note from Citigroup suggested that German two-year yields could fall to minus 1 percent or more, as the ECB will be forced to buy more short-dated bonds. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,354 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 371 MXAP down 0.4% to 145.92 MXAPJ down 0.5% to 468.82 Nikkei down 0.5% to 19,283.54 Topix down 0.4% to 1,550.14 Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 23,965.70 Shanghai Composite up 0.06% to 3,253.43 Sensex up 0.1% to 28,892.97 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 5,738.99 Kospi down 0.6% to 2,094.12 German 10Y yield fell 2.9 bps to 0.204% Euro up 0.07% to 1.0589 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.7% to $56.19/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 3.1 bps to 2.225% Spanish 10Y yield rose 5.4 bps to 1.74% Brent Futures down 0.7% to $56.19/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,255.96 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 100.90 Top Overnight News from BBG Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc laid out a plan to cut costs by 2 billion pounds ($2.5 billion) over the next four years as it posted its ninth straight annual loss and delayed profitability targets After striking deals in Russian oil and Congolese copper mining, Glencore Plc has set its sights on the U.S. grain- trading industry Pimco says Beijing’s “cautious tightening signals” are largely being ignored by banks and at the local level, where attention is focused on maintaining steady economic growth Value Partners, one of the world’s best-performing junk bond funds, is betting on stressed debt New Exxon Chief Darren Woods is focusing on climate change, calling for a carbon tax to discourage use of polluting fuels In Asia, equity markets traded lower following a mixed lead from US where the DJIA and S&P 500 were buoyed by healthcare and utilities. ASX 200 (-0.8%) underperformed and was weighed by the metals & mining sector amid commodity prices sliding lower, after Dalian Iron ore declined 5.5% yesterday. Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) conformed to the downbeat tone despite support from a weakening JPY overnight as well as Toshiba stocks trading higher by around +5%. In China, Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) suffered from the PBoC's trend of ever weakening liquidity injections this week, with the daily operation providing only a total of CNY 30bIn. 10yr JGBs traded higher due to the risk averse tone in the region with the curve flattening amid outperformance seen in the super long end. Top Asia News Japan Equity Movers: Komatsu, Kobe Steel, NEG, Morinaga, Line China’s New Banking Regulator Chief Faces Daunting Challenges Calmer Asian Currencies Spell Return of Global Yield Hunters ANA to Spend $270 Million to Raise Stake in Peach Aviation China H Shares Pare Weekly Gain as Anhui Conch, Great Wall Drop Options Traders Make Bullish Bets on HKEX as Earnings Loom Hong Kong Awards Ap Lei Chau Site For HK$16.9b to Logan, KWG Hong Kong Existing Home Prices Climb to Record, Defying Curbs Pearson Weighs Options for English-Language Units in China European bourses have started the last trading session of the week on the backfoot, with Standard Chartered among the worst performers in the FTSE 100 as profits fell short of analyst expectations, while RBS also trades in the red after the bank announced a whopping GBP 7bIn loss for 2016. Elsewhere, French telecom giant Vivendi is the notable laggard across Europe amid reports that Milan prosecutors are looking in the company over alleged market manipulation in stake building in MediaSet. Across fixed income markets, yields in the German 2-yr took another leg lower to print fresh record lows (as a reminder, the ECB previously said that they investigating the squeeze in the Eurozone repo market), the GE-FR spread continues to see some modest widening, while the fixed income space has been supported by the wave of short covering. Top European News RBS Cuts CEO’s Potential Share Award 40% After Ninth Annual Loss Jupiter Fund CEO Says Firm Is Big Enough to Remain Independent Lower Turkish Rate Bets Emerge as Swap Curve Pares Inversion Mnuchin Tells Carney to Expect America-First Push on Regulation UniCredit’s Record $13.8 Billion Rights Offer 99.8% Subscribed Banco BPM Extends Drop; Shares From Withdrawal Right From Feb In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.1% after falling 0.3 percent in the previous session. The yen rose 0.1 percent to 112.3 per dollar, after rising 0.6 percent Thursday. It's been more of the same in the FX markets today as the USD continues to lose ground, but very modestly so given the consensus base line of 2 Fed rate hikes this year. Rather the moves are reflective of the skew moving towards an `on-hold' call at the March meeting, though the odds are mixed among the surveys, stretching form circa 20-40% for a 25bp rate hike. Looking at the USDJPY, TSY yields are grinding towards the lower end of the range established in recent months, with the key 10yr still inside 2.30-2.55%. We have dipped under 2.37% this morning, resulting in a rather reluctant move below 112.50, though no sudden urge to recover. This is much the same for the EUR/USD move towards 1.0600, but with (French/Dutch) election news subsiding, the single unit has moderated since. GBP is in limbo as a result, with EUFt/GBP drawn towards the 0.8450 level. We have attempted a return towards 0.8400 — which may well still materialise — but comments from the Bundesbank's Dombret including the prospects of UK access looking 'rather dim' have, at the very least, curtailed the impromptu rise in GBP. Cable is struggling well ahead of 1.2600, as it did in yesterday's North American session. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate traded 0.6 percent lower at $54.12 a barrel. Brent fell 0.7 percent to $56.22. The big mover in commodities are in precious metals where Gold has now pierced the USD1250 level, though with limited momentum. This is purely USD based, as risk sentiment remains on an even keel, so sustainability as these levels (Gold) are key over coming sessions. Base metals may be showing some gains on the day, but after reports that president Trump's fiscal plans may be delayed into next year, Copper has retreated some way below the USD2.700 level, dragging Iron Ore with it. Adding pressure on the latter are reports of growing stockpiles in China, and this has clear implications on demand forecasts going forward. Oil prices still holding familiar territory on hopes that the agreed production cuts will be followed up by 100% compliance. Yesterday's build reported in the DoE reported a small build, but having a modest impact in the aftermath. Looking at the day ahead, the only data due is January new home sales (expected to bounce back) and the final revisions to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. US Event Calendar 10am: New Home Sales, est. 570,500, prior 536,000; MoM, est. 6.44%, prior -10.4% 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 96, prior 95.7; Current Conditions, prior 111.2; Expectations, prior 85.7; 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.8%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.5% * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It's perhaps not the best time to admit that I've no idea why Bunds are rallying so hard at the moment. 10y yields (-4.7bps) hit 0.228% yesterday, down from their YTD peak of 0.495% intraday on the 26th of January. 2y yields also closed another -3.0bps lower yesterday at -0.932%. They traded as ‘high’ as -0.648% back on the same day. The most obvious explanation is of course Euro systemic risk - especially from France and perhaps Italy. However other markets (equities, equity vol, the Euro, broader credit spreads etc) aren't moving much to price in redenomination risk in Europe. A lack of high quality collateral has been cited as an explanation but it's not clear there is much new info on this over recent days to explain the move. Perhaps it's as simple as government bond investors are generally by nature ultra conservative and Bunds seemingly offer complete safety from redenomination risk. Although on this we'd note that yesterday 10 year French OAT yields fell another -3.6bps and hit their lowest yield (0.978%) for 4 weeks. Ironically the latest Q4 Germany GDP numbers yesterday showed the country as ending the year as the fastest growing advanced economy in 2016. Indeed 2016 GDP growth in Germany was +1.9% which compares to +1.8% for the UK, +1.7% for the Eurozone and +1.6% for the US. New US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin does however expect growth in the US to hit a “sustainable growth rate of 3% or more” towards the end of next year following comments in a televised interview with CNBC yesterday. Mnuchin also said that the new administration is looking closely at the border adjustment tax and that the White House wants to pass a “very significant” tax reform by August. There was also some focus on his remarks about possibly issuing 50y or 100y Treasury bonds, saying that they are exploring the option and that they will reach out to the market and investors. On China and the recent FX manipulation chatter Mnuchin stopped short of labelling China a manipulator but said that the Treasury would go through the usual processes of looking at “currency manipulation across the board” suggesting also that no judgments will be made before the Treasury’s April report. On a related note there was also some focus on a Business Insider report suggesting that Trump may be considering delaying a proposed  $550bn infrastructure spending plan until 2018. The crux of it was that the administration’s time is being taken up by other big proposed reforms including taxes and the Obamacare repeal and that a timing delay to 2018 would make sense in the context of next year’s mid-term elections. While industrials and materials names did underperform on the back of that report it was still another fairly dull session overall for US equities. The S&P 500 finished +0.04% while the Dow ended +0.17% and took its run of new record highs to ten sessions in a row. By the way that is now 52 days that the S&P 500 hasn’t closed up or down by more than 1%. As a reminder the run in 2014 was 62 days so it’s now within sight. Needless to say that the VIX – little changed at 11.71 yesterday – continues to hover only just above the decade low levels. In rates Treasury yields also marched lower yesterday. 10y yields finished the day -4.1bps lower at 2.373% and are now down some 18bps from the January highs. The curve did however steepen slightly (30y yields finishing -2.0bps lower) probably reflecting those Mnuchin comments about possible ultra long-dated issuance. In commodities WTI Oil (+1.60%) did rise back above $54/bbl following the latest inventory data although base metals took a hit with Iron Ore and Copper  in particular both down over 3%. With little new news to report of this morning it appears that those declines in metals are to blame for a soft end to the week for risk in Asia. The Nikkei (-0.49%), Shanghai Comp (-0.35%), Hang Seng (-0.34%) and ASX (-0.85%) are all in the red. Currencies have been relatively flat while rates are stronger. Moving on. The Fedspeak continued again yesterday although it’s clear that the market is failing to price in much more chance of a March move despite a number of Fed officials signalling how “live” the March meeting is. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart was the latest yesterday and he said also that there will be “serious consideration” at the meeting but also that the term “fairly soon” (in reference to the FOMC minutes) “leaves options open for probably the next three meetings”. Lockhart also spoke about the balance sheet and said that he would be in favour of letting “natural runoff gradually shrink the balance sheet”. Late last night Dallas Fed President Kaplan also said that the committee should keep options open for a March move. Bloomberg’s calculator currently sits at a 38% probability for a March rate hike. It’s worth noting that the US data was a bit of a sideshow yesterday. Initial jobless claims came in at 244k and marginally higher than the week before while the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey index rose  5pts to +14 and the highest since June 2011. Meanwhile there were also some comments from Bundesbank President Weidmann yesterday. He opined that “the balance of risks might be more favourable today that it was before” and that possible market  anticipations about a lift in interest rates by the ECB in 2019 “don’t sound absurd” and are “in the possibility that I see”. Staying in Europe, in terms of the other data yesterday, in Germany the latest consumer confidence reading revealed a small 0.2pt tick down in confidence to 10.0 although it’s worth highlighting that that is still at relatively elevated levels versus the last few years. In France business confidence was flat in February and in the UK the CBI’s distributive trades survey pointed to some improvement in retailers’ sales in February following a soft January. Just wrapping up, it’s worth noting that following a positive meeting between Merkel and Lagarde on Wednesday concerning Greece, the creditors are now expected to return to Greece next Tuesday where talks should focus on the exact fiscal tightening measures needed over 2018 and 2019, as well as conditional easing. So worth keeping an eye on how things proceed there. Looking at the day ahead, it looks set to be a fairly quiet end to the week. In Europe this morning we’ll get the February consumer confidence reading as well as industrial orders and sales data in Italy. Over in the US the only data due is January new home sales (expected to bounce back) and the final revisions to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.

24 февраля, 07:20

In A Battle Between Trump And The Federal Reserve, Who Really Wins?

Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com, As a part of the increasingly obvious set-up of conservative movements by international banking interests and globalist think-tanks, I have noticed an expanding disinformation campaign which appears to be designed to wash the Federal Reserve of culpability for the crash of 2008 that has continued to fester to this day despite the many claims of economic “recovery.”  I believe this program is meant to set the stage for a coming conflict between the Trump Administration and the Fed, but what would be the ultimate consequences of such an event? In my article 'The False Economic Recovery Narrative Will Die In 2017', I outlined the propaganda trap being established by globalist owned and operated media outlets like Bloomberg, in which they consistently claim that Donald Trump has “inherited” an economy in recovery and ascendancy from the Obama administration.  I thoroughly debunked their positions and “evidence” by showing how each of their fundamental indicators has actually been in steady decline since 2008, even in the face of massive monetary intervention and fiat printing by the Fed. My greatest concern leading up to the 2016 election was that Trump would be allowed to win because he represents the perfect scapegoat for an economic crisis that central banks have been brewing for years. Whether or not Trump is aware of this plan cannot yet be proven, but as I have mentioned in the past, his cabinet of Goldman Sachs alumni and neo-con veterans hardly gives me confidence.  In the best case scenario, Trump is surrounded by enemies; in the worst case scenario, he is surrounded by friends. Trump’s loyalties, though, are a secondary issue for now.  The primary focus of this article is to discern whether or not a battle between Trump and the Fed will result in a net positive or a net negative for the public.  My position is that any action against the Fed should have happened years ago, and that today, the Fed is nothing more than a sacrificial appendage of a greater globalist agenda.  Meaning, conservative groups should be aware that a victory over the Fed is not actually a victory over the globalists.  In fact, the globalists may very well WANT a war between the Fed and the White House at this time. First, some facts need to be established to counter the propaganda claims that the Fed is some kind of  innocent victim of a rampaging President Trump or “misguided” conservative rhetoric. The Scapegoat Setup Continues The latest extension of the Fed’s propaganda has been initiated, of course, by the mainstream media and liberals in general; you know, the same people that were applauding the (in some cases misguided) efforts of the Occupy Wall Street movement.  With Trump’s negation of the Dodd-Frank Act, the media has been looking for any opportunity to assert that Trump is either acting to enrich his corporate friends or that he is an idiot man-child when it comes to matters of business and economics. This led to some sniping by Elizabeth Warren and Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen‘s testimony before congress last week.  The argument?  That Trump was wrong or “lying” when he said that Dodd-Frank had frozen loans from major banks.  You can see the glee in media outlets over the stab; a recent article by Vanity Fair, which seemed to focus more on snide ankle biting of Trump than concrete evidence, is a perfect example. Now, in Trump’s defense (or at least, in defense of his position), Yellen is actually the one lying, here.  While it is true that commercial lending has expanded, her claim that small business loans have improved is simply false.  Even Bloomberg begrudgingly acknowledges that small business loans have fallen by at least 6% since the passage of Dodd-Frank.  In Obama’s favorite liberal home-base, Chicago, loans to small neighborhood businesses declined by 49% between 2008 and 2014. In 2015, Yellen herself argued that small business loans were in decline because small business owners “don’t want loans anymore.”   This is a bit like the Bureau of Labor Statistics arguing that over 95 million unemployed working age Americans should not be counted as unemployed in their stats because they really “don’t want a job.”  It is an attempt to muddy the waters on the greater issue, which is that the U.S. economy is in considerable danger. You see, I don’t think Trump was debating that major corporations and banks were not receiving ample loans, I think he was primarily pointing out the disparity in small business loans and personal loans.  Yellen and the mainstream media attempted to use one data point — commercial loans, to dismiss the entire debate over loan stagnation. The Fed Is Culpable For Our Bubble Economy And Trying To Shift Blame Before A Collapse The fact is, we all KNOW that major corporations and banks have been flooded with ample loans, and much of this capital was conjured out of thin air by the Fed itself through fiat creation and near zero interest rates.  We know this because of the $16 trillion in loans made to companies around the world exposed by the revealing (but limited) TARP audit.  We also know this because much of these loans have been used to inflate the stock market bubble for the past few years through endless stock buybacks that most companies never would have been able to afford otherwise. We also know that the mainstream investment world is aware of the importance of these loans because they started to panic as the Fed announced its ongoing program of interest rate hikes. Beyond that, we know that the Fed’s low interest loans and culture of circular inbred lending between corporations and banks have been instrumental in keeping stocks hyperinflated, because Fed officials have OPENLY ADMITTED that this is the case.  As Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed stated in an interview with CNBC: “What the Fed did — and I was part of that group — is we front-loaded a tremendous market rally, starting in 2009.It’s sort of what I call the “reverse Whimpy factor” — give me two hamburgers today for one tomorrow. I’m not surprised that almost every index you can look at … was down significantly.” [Referring to the results in the stock market after the Fed raised rates in December 2015.]   “…I was warning my colleagues, “Don’t go wobbly if we have a 10-20 percent correction at some point. … Everybody you talk to … has been warning that these markets are heavily priced.” So, again, the issue is not whether or not banks are lending, we know they are lending, they just aren’t lending to the people that need it most. I think Fisher was dishonest in his evaluation of the extent of the consequences of the Fed bubble and that a 10% to 20% drop in equities is an absurd underestimation.  But setting aside the "little white lies", it is at least widely available knowledge that the Federal Reserve initiated a corporate loan free-for-all, knowing that the supposed benefits were limited in scope as well as in duration.  They know that a crash is coming, and they have been stalling until they can find the right scapegoat to divert blame.  That scapegoat is Trump, and by association, all conservatives. As far as Dodd-Frank is concerned, the act was supposed to be a primer for stopping destructive behavior in the financial sector, more specifically in derivatives.  Yet, in spite of Dodd-Frank, banks like Citigroup are STILL bloated with derivatives after receiving at least $476 billion in taxpayer funds to stop them from going bankrupt for the very same irresponsibility. Dodd-Frank accomplished absolutely nothing in terms of what it was mandated to do.  I believe the only true purpose of Dodd-Frank was to distract everyone from Ron Paul’s Fed audit bill, which was gaining major traction at the time. Liberals And The Fed Become Bedfellows? So, why does Trump’s undercutting of Dodd-Frank even matter?  As outlined above, it is a propaganda point for the establishment to perpetuate the narrative that Trump is incompetent, that the people who support him are incompetent, and that when the economy does shift into greater crisis it will be his fault and the fault of conservatives.  It is also a springboard for the Federal Reserve to “attack” Trump, as shown in Yellen’s congressional testimony. I also find it interesting that through the Dodd-Frank issue as well as others, leftists are being galvanized in support around the Federal Reserve, something that they probably would not have done a couple of years ago.  This is all culminating in what I believe will become a titanic battle not only between Trump and Leftists, but also between Donald Trump and the Fed.  But why would the establishment want to incite a conflict between the president and the central bank? This is something conservatives and liberty activists have wanted for decades — a president that would be willing to take on the Federal Reserve and expose its innards.  The problem is, the time for the effectiveness of such an action is long gone.  Auditing the Fed under Obama (an openly pro-globalist president) would have been a disaster for the powers that be.  It would have thrown their entire agenda into disarray and killed any chance that they could complete what they call the “great global economic reset.”  Auditing or shutting down the Fed under Trump is another matter. As I examined in detail with evidence in my article 'The Economic End Game Explained', the Federal Reserve has a shelf life.  It has already served its purpose, which was to undermine the American economy and our currency system.  The Fed will now begin deflating the bubbles it has engineered in stocks, Treasuries and the dollar through continued interest rate hikes and rolling out the over $4 trillion (official amount) on its balance sheet.  The goal?  Sinking America and reducing it to third world status over the course of the next several years to make way for total global centralization of economic administration, eventually leading to global fiscal management under the IMF and perhaps the BIS, and a global currency system; all while making conservative movements look like the monster behind the crisis. To summarize, the U.S. economy and the dollar are slated for a controlled demolition.  The Fed will do everything in its power to prod Trump and conservatives into war with the central bank, because the Fed is now ready to sacrifice itself and the dollar’s world reserve status in order to clear a path for a new global system and ideology. The Federal Reserve is a suicide bomber. If this takes place as I predict then the international banks and the establishment elites will be able to lay the blame for the death of king dollar squarely at the feet of Trump and conservatives, and at least a third of the country (leftists) will buy into the narrative lock, stock and barrel because they desperately WANT to believe it.  Remember, the tale being scripted here is that Trump is a rampaging maniac that does not know what he is doing. To be clear, I am not supporting the continuing dominance of the Fed, or the existence of the fiat dollar.  What I am saying is that conservatives may just get what we have been wishing for all these years but not in the manner we had hoped. To counter this threat our list of targets must expand to meet reality.  The delusion that the core problem is the Federal Reserve must stop.  The Fed is a box store, a franchise in a chain of franchises, nothing more.  If we do not also turn our scrutiny and aggression towards root globalist institutions like the IMF and the BIS as well as international banks, then our efforts will only serve to bolster the enemy we are trying to fight. In a battle limited to Trump versus the Fed, only the bankers will win.

24 февраля, 04:55

The Road To Hell Was Paved With Obama Cronyism

Submitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog, President Donald Trump’s naïve (or willfully blind) notion that Wall Street will work better at raising capital if it is unleashed from strident Federal regulation is unhinged from the facts on the ground. Those facts, as illustrated above, are that the Boards of two of the largest banks in the U.S. are utterly spineless when it comes to holding their CEOs and employees accountable in the face of a tsunami of crimes.   – From the Wall Street on Parade article: What JPMorgan and Citigroup Have in Common When It Comes to Crime Opposition to Trump is extremely important, particularly when it comes to someone like me who sees his Wall Street love affair and disregard for civil liberties as serious threats to the nation. That said, it is absolutely imperative to see Trump as a symptom of a sick and broken system as opposed to the root cause of anything. The corporate media and legions of mourning Hillary cultists continue to present the Trump threat in extraordinarily simplistic and unhelpful terms. They act as if he’s the head of some evil snake, and that disposing of him as an individual will get America back on track. This couldn’t be more wrong. I spent most of the Obama years warning about the dangers of his policies. I didn’t do this for kicks, or because I thought he would try to stay in power forever, but because I knew his monumental cronyism would only pave the way for major problems down the road. Well the backlash to Obama came quick, and we the people won’t do the country any good if we focus on Trump the man, as opposed to the entirely corrupt, billionaire/special interest-controlled cesspool of a society we inhabit. We need to focus on Trump’s policies, not Trump the man. We also need to be under no illusions when it comes to the disaster that was the Obama administration, and the key role his failures played in providing the fertile ground for Trump to believe he can do whatever he wants — because Obama largely did. As such, today’s article by Trevor Timm at the Freedom of the Press Foundation is extremely important. It provides new documentation demonstrating how the Obama administration worked tirelessly behind the scenes to prevent Congress from expanding government transparency.  Here are a few excerpts from the article, New Documents Show the Obama Admin Aggressively Lobbied to Kill Transparency Reform in Congress”: New documents obtained through Freedom of the Press Foundation’s lawsuit against the Justice Department reveal that the Obama administration – the self described “most transparent administration ever” – aggressively lobbied behind the scenes in 2014 to kill modest Freedom of Information Act reform that had virtually unanimous support in Congress.   Three months ago, we sued the Justice Department (DOJ) under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) for communications between the DOJ and Congress, since there were vague reports that the DOJ may have opposed the bill – despite much of it being based word-for-word based on the Justice Department’s own policies.   Today, we are publishing a detailed memo authored by the Justice Department that strongly objected to almost every aspect of FOIA reform put forth by the House of Representatives at the time.   The bill in question – known as the FOIA Act – was unanimously passed by the House in early 2014. The Senate passed a similar bill – known as the FOIA Improvement Act – in December of 2014, but a final vote in the House to merge the two bills was held up at the last minute by then-Speaker of the House John Boehner and the session of Congress ended before it could become law. It was unclear at the time why the bill did not come up for a final vote, but the Washington Post later reported that a few federal agencies—including the Justice Department—had “warned” lawmakers about some provisions in the bill.   But these new documents show it went well beyond that: the Justice Department vehemently objected to both House and Senate members on nearly all aspects of the bill from the very start, and made clear: “The Administration strongly opposes passage of [the FOIA Act].”Notably, the Justice Department indicates that this policy memo (published in full below) is not just the agency’s individual opinion, but that it is speaking for the entire Obama administration.   The Obama administration’s specious objections to FOIA reform were manifold. They were against codifying the Obama administration’s “presumption of openness” policy that Obama declared upon his first month in office, they were against Congress mandating that the federal government create a unified online portal to process FOIA requests, they were against mandating discipline for FOIA redactors who break any of rules or regulations for processing FOIA requests, and they were against providing more reporting and oversight to Congress to make sure FOIA was being complied with.   The administration tried to couch some of its opposition in concern that the bill would “cause delays” in the FOIA process, despite the fact that many of the provisions were written to speed up the process, modernize the system with an online portal, and encourage proactive disclosure by making more information available to the public without even having to file a request. Concerning other provisions, the DOJ claimed the administration is not opposed in principle, but its is against seeing them codified into law — which allows the Executive Branch to delay implementation indefinitely and gives the next administration carte blanche power to rescind any good policies the Obama administration did put in place.   While the Freedom of Information Act remains a valuable tool (this lawsuit can attest to that), any reporter who has filed a FOIA request can corroborate the fact that the law is badly broken. Multiple investigations have shown that the Obama administration has been the most secretive ever when it comes to FOIA. Requests can often take years to be fulfilled if at all, and the only way to get results is to sue, like we were forced to. (We did not receive any documents for over a year from our first requests, and only received these documents after filing a lawsuit).   This summer is the 50th anniversary of the Freedom of Information Act, and Congress is yet again debating a FOIA reform bill, this time with even more holes in it than last time. We hope that Congress will amend the proposed reform in the strongest possible way and send it to the president’s desk with the same message they did fifty years ago when the Johnson administration opposed it, yet was forced to sign it anyways: transparency is vital to democracy. If I had to pick the most pernicious aspect of Obama’s entire presidency, it unquestionably would be the Department of Justice. By failing to prosecute a single bank executive, the DOJ made it clear to anyone paying attention that crime pays if you’re wealthy and powerful. With that incentive structure in place, financial crime flourished during the Obama administration, as was perfectly described in today’s article in Wall Street on Parade, What JPMorgan and Citigroup Have in Common When It Comes to Crime. Here’s some of what we learned: Jamie Dimon became the CEO of JPMorgan Chase on January 1, 2006. At that point, the bank was more than a century old and had never been charged with a criminal felony. In 2014, the Justice Department charged JPMorgan Chase with two felony counts in connection with their role in facilitating the Madoff Ponzi scheme. The bank was given a two-year deferred prosecution agreement.   The very next year, in May 2015, JPMorgan Chase was hit with a new felony count for its role in rigging foreign currency markets as part of a banking cartel. That’s three felony counts in two years and yet Jamie Dimon kept his job. Before the felony counts there was a $13 billion settlement with the Justice Department and Federal and State regulators in 2013 for JPMorgan Chase’s role in selling toxic mortgage investments to investors as worthwhile products when the bank had good reason to believe they would blow up.   Senator Carl Levin, Chair of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations at the time, said that the bank “piled on risk, hid losses, disregarded risk limits, manipulated risk models, dodged oversight, and misinformed the public.”  And, unbelievably, Jamie Dimon continued his tenure as Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase.   The crime spree at JPMorgan Chase became so surreal that two trial lawyers, Helen Davis Chaitman and Lance Gotthoffer, published a breathtaking book on the subject, comparing the bank to the Gambino crime family. In addition to the settlements noted above, the authors add more details as to what has occurred on Dimon’s watch, such as:   “In April 2011, JPMC agreed to pay $35 million to settle claims that it overcharged members of the military service on their mortgages in violation of the Service Members Civil Relief Act and the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.   “In March 2012, JPMC paid the government $659 million to settle charges that it charged veterans hidden fees in mortgage refinancing transactions.   “In October 2012, JPMC paid $1.2 billion to settle claims that it, along with other banks, conspired to set the price of credit and debit card interchange fees.   “On January 7, 2013, JPMC announced that it had agreed to a settlement with the Office of the Controller of the Currency (‘OCC’) and the Federal Reserve Bank of charges that it had engaged in improper foreclosure practices.   “In September 2013, JPMC agreed to pay $80 million in fines and $309 million in refunds to customers whom the bank billed for credit monitoring services that the bank never provided.   “On December 13, 2013, JPMC agreed to pay 79.9 million Euros to settle claims of the European Commission relating to illegal rigging of benchmark interest rates.   “In February 2012, JPMC agreed to pay $110 million to settle claims that it overcharged customers for overdraft fees.   “In November 2012, JPMC paid $296,900,000 to the SEC to settle claims that it misstated information about the delinquency status of its mortgage portfolio.   “In July 2013, JPMC paid $410 million to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to settle claims of bidding manipulation of California and Midwest electricity makets.   “In December 2013, JPMC paid $22.1 million to settle claims that the bank imposed expensive and unnecessary flood insurance on homeowners whose mortgages the bank serviced.” Interesting how Jamie Dimon seemed to think being crowned “Obama’s favorite banker” entitled him to a multi-year crime spree. Let’s now turn to Citigroup. Michael Corbat has been CEO of Citigroup since October 2012. Below is just a sampling of the regulatory charges against the bank under Corbat’s reign, including a guilty plea to a felony count in May 2015 which covered conduct that continued after Corbat took the helm.   July 1, 2013: Citigroup agrees to pay Fannie Mae $968 million for selling it toxic mortgage loans.   September 25, 2013: Citigroup agrees to pay Freddie Mac $395 million to settle claims it sold it toxic mortgages.   December 4, 2013: Citigroup admits to participating in the Yen Libor financial derivatives cartel to the European Commission and accepts a fine of $95 million.   July 14, 2014: The U.S. Department of Justice announces a $7 billion settlement with Citigroup for selling toxic mortgages to investors. Attorney General Eric Holder called the bank’s conduct “egregious,” adding, “As a result of their assurances that toxic financial products were sound, Citigroup was able to expand its market share and increase profits.”   November 2014: Citigroup pays more than $1 billion to settle civil allegations with regulators that it manipulated foreign currency markets. Other global banks settled at the same time.   May 20, 2015: Citicorp, a unit of Citigroup becomes an admitted felon by pleading guilty to a felony charge in the matter of rigging foreign currency trading, paying a fine of $925 million to the Justice Department and $342 million to the Federal Reserve for a total of $1.267 billion.   May 25, 2016: Citigroup agrees to pay $425 million to resolve claims brought by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that it had rigged interest-rate benchmarks, including ISDAfix, from 2007 to 2012.   July 12, 2016: The Securities and Exchange Commission fined Citigroup Global Markets Inc. $7 million for failure to provide accurate trading records over a period of 15 years.   President Donald Trump’s naïve (or willfully blind) notion that Wall Street will work better at raising capital if it is unleashed from strident Federal regulation is unhinged from the facts on the ground. Those facts, as illustrated above, are that the Boards of two of the largest banks in the U.S. are utterly spineless when it comes to holding their CEOs and employees accountable in the face of a tsunami of crimes. While it’s unquestionably true that Donald Trump is a gigantic Wall Street-coddler, so was Obama. When it comes to the real power running this country, no one dares take on the financial criminals. Not even Trump, despite all his big talk.    

22 февраля, 18:42

Нефть дешевеет в среду, Brent торгуется у $55,9 за баррель

Цены на нефть эталонных марок снижаются в среду, поскольку инвесторы сомневаются в действенности предпринимаемых странами-членами ОПЕК и другими государствами мер по сокращению добычи, а также опасаются дальнейшего увеличения запасов топлива в США.

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22 февраля, 16:41

Рубль в феврале вырос на 5% к доллару и евро

С начала февраля курсы доллара и евро по отношению к российской валюте снизились более чем на 5%. На наш взгляд, это было ожидаемо. Об этом говорит хотя бы высокая стоимость барреля Brent в рублях. В январе она поднималась выше 3400 руб. за «бочку», что исторически очень дорого. Это показывало отставание курса рубля от роста нефтяных котировок. Недаром целый ряд западных инвестиционных домов (Goldman Sachs, Citigroup и т.д.) выделяли рубль в качестве привлекательной валюты для инвестирования

22 февраля, 15:13

«Человек дождя» сел за манипуляции со ставкой LIBOR

Трейдер, получивший от своих коллег необычное прозвище за свою неразговорчивость, сядет в тюрьму на 11 лет за манипуляции со ставкой LIBOR, сообщает агентство Bloomberg. До последнего он отказывался признавать себя виновным, аргументируя это тем, что в 2008 году только ленивый не манипулировал ставкой.

22 февраля, 09:00

Утренний обзор

Доброе утро! На вчерашних торгах нефть добралась до верхней границы своего боковика 54.5 — 57.5$ на заявлениях ОПЕК. Генеральный секретарь ОПЕК Мохаммед Баркиндо на 100% уверен, что все страны, заключившие соглашение о сокращении добычи нефти, своевременно исполнят свои обязательства. Баркиндо напомнил в беседе с журналистами, что 22 февраля состоится заседание технического комитета в Вене, на котором будут изучены показатели по добыче за прошедший с начала января период. В преддверии этой встречи он уверен, что взятые странами обязательства будут исполнены. «Все цифры по добыче открыты. Уровень уверенности, возможно, неожиданно для рынков, очень высок. Через два-три дня мы подсчитаем цифры», — сказал он. Также Баркиндо отметил, что не стоит забывать, что речь идет о новом механизме для стран не входящих в ОПЕК, которого не было раньше, поэтому государствам, входящим в картель, приходится работать по новым правилам. «Я уверен, что страны не-ОПЕК также покажут высокий уровень соответствия», — сказал он, добавив, что ОПЕК уверена, что «все страны без исключения выполнят свои обязательства». Аналитики Citigroup прогнозируют повышение цен на медь и нефть в текущем году, однако не исключают снижения их стоимости в дальнейшем. По их оценке, нефть марки Brent к концу 2017 года может подорожать до $70 за баррель, а котировки медных контрактов на Лондонской бирже металлов — до $7 тыс. за тонну. Краткосрочный прогноз для нефти был улучшен на фоне ребалансировки рынка за счет действий ОПЕК по сокращению добычи и растущего спроса в Азии, сообщается в обзоре банка. В первом квартале средняя цена нефти может составить $55 за баррель, а в апреле-июне подняться до $56 за баррель. Это соответственно на $5 и $2 выше предыдущих оценок Citi. В целом сырье как класс активов сохраняет привлекательность в 2017 году после повышения цен в прошлом году. Сегодня рынки будут ждать протокола ФРС.Публикация протокола является одним из ключевых факторов, влияющих на рынок, поскольку это может как усилить, так и подорвать последние «ястребиные» комментарии представителей ФРС, пишет агентство Рейтер. Индекс ММВБ закрылся в зоне покупок, но для продолжения положительной тенденции ему по прежнему нужно закрепляться над 2140. фРТС так же вошел в зону покупок, пробив сопротивление 115500 — 115700 закрепившись над ним, теперь данный уровень будет служить фьючерсу поддержкой. Первая цель 116600 была исполнена, следующая находиться в районе 117000. smart-lab.ru/blog/381362.php

21 февраля, 18:35

Нефть дорожает во вторник, цена Brent превысила $57 за баррель

Нефть эталонных марок дорожает в ходе торгов во вторник на заявлениях генерального секретаря ОПЕК Мохаммеда Баркиндо.

21 февраля, 17:49

What Led to a 25% Pay Rise for Bank of America (BAC) CEO?

Bank of America Corporation's (BAC) Chief Executive Officer, Brian T. Moynihan has been awarded with an annual salary of $20 million for his performance in 2016.

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21 февраля, 17:45

HSBC Reports One of the Biggest Misses of the Year, We Warned Quite Thoroughly in September

Our HSBC research report released September of 2016 has proven to be 110% correct. This is the first sentence of our report: HSBC Common Equity Returns: Notwithstanding a possible boost from significant depreciation of the pound and their beating (already lowered) analysts’ expectations, it looks as if the market has not sufficiently discounted HSBC’s price given it’s extremely negative fundamental, credit and macro outlook.  This morning the company reports an 82% drop in year over year earnings. Bloomberg reports HSBC Plunges After Missing Profit Estimates on Revenue Drop HSBC Holdings Plc dropped the most in 18 months in London trading after reporting fourth-quarter profit that missed estimates on a surprise drop in revenue, which it warned could fall again this... Net Interest income (US$ billion)   The bank had no less than 6 "one off" expenses and $6 billion worth of of writedowns where analysts were only expecting $1 billion. Of course, we clearly anticipated such, as you can see below.  “Pretax profit is a large miss versus consensus” with “weakness in revenues across all major line items,” Citigroup Inc.’s Ronit Ghose said in a note titled “Weak Revenues, Messy Quarter.” Ghose also noted “an unusually large amount of one-offs” in the period, including a multibillion-dollar writedown on the value of its scandal-hit European private bank. Here are some snippets from our report. To access our full report (HSBC Research Q3 2016 Research Report - Subscriber Edition), and legacy reports (browse banking section of paid archives), please subscribe. HSBC Holding PLC Date 1 M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 06/08/16 15.27% 10.34% 4.41% -12.37% -22.8% Notably, GBP has depreciated against dollar by ~15% in the last month. This might have contributed to appreciation of HSBC stock price since July 7, 2016 till Aug 6, 2016. Financial Results – 2Q2016: HSBC Holdings PLC reported a decline of ~29% in their reported profit before tax. Reported PBT was totaled at USD9.7 billion in 2Q2016  versus US$13.6 billion in 2Q2015 Similarly the bank’s revenue also fell down 11% to US$29.5 billion in 2Q2016 compared to US$32.9 billion in 2Q2015 HSBC reported an increase of 64% in total loan impairment and other credit risk provisions to US$2.4 billion in 2Q2016 from US$1.4 billion in 2Q2015 As per the bank’s Group Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver HSBC is going to buy back up to $2.5bn of its shares this year and hopes for another buyback in 2017. This is an absolutely silly use of capital given the decline in fundamentals, worsening credit metrics and deteriorating macro environment! A move whose only possible justification is to place investor perception of per share metrics. The bank also stepped back from its dividend policy which implied a payout ratio of 8% Risk-weighted assets (RWA) reduced by $21bn or 2% to US$1,082 billion as of June 30, 2016 mainly because of targeted RWA initiatives and the effects of currency translation in 1H2016. RWA initiatives resulted in a reduction of $48bn and included asset sales in the GB&M legacy and US CML run-off portfolios, reduced exposures, refined calculations and process improvements Net Interest Income (NIM): The net Interest income of HSBC Holding PLC came down by 4% to US$15.7 billion in 1H2016 from US$16.4 billion in 1H2015. Besides, the Net interest margin also came down to 1.83% from 1.92% Margins are under continued pressure while the revenue is shrinking. What this means that HSBC’s ability to withstand any potential loss due to global banking system is weakening every quarter of every year, year after year. Revenue is not increasing and profitability will be affected. Losses in value of assets and loans may seriously impact the bank’s ability to provide returns to shareholders. Performance by Geography: Profit before tax (US$ million): Europe: Total PBT of bank’s Europe business declined to US$1.6 billion 2Q2016 versus US$2.2 billion in 2Q2015 (a decline of almost 25%). Among the countries in Europe, HSBC’s PBT in France declined. Other countries experienced a loss of almost US$663 million. The performance of Global Private Banking division deteriorated in all countries Overall PBT of  Retail Banking and Wealth Management and Global Banking and Markets division of HSBC also declined in Europe   We have looked at HSBC derivatives again. Please see the attached file. Notably, the notional value of derivative did witness a decrease in 2015 (over 2014 levels) due to decrease in notional value of interest rate derivatives. However, it again increased in 1H2016. The volatility in value of derivatives is worth noting. For example, in case of interest rate derivatives, the % of gross fair value of derivatives to notional value increased from 3.8% in 2015 to 4.8% in 1H2016 due to the fact that the yield curves in major currencies in Europe ( mostly in UK and to a lesser extent in France) have decreased in recent time because of the economic slowdown. This resulted in an increase in gross fair value of interest rate derivatives and corresponding offset amount. And this increase is the main factor behind increase in total net value of derivative assets On an overall basis,  the % of gross fair value of derivatives to notional value increased from 3.7% in 2015 to 4.5% in 1H2016 The point being highlighted here is that the fair value is very volatile and is dependent on factors external to the bank’s control. Any major turbulence will have non-measurable and unexpected change in value of derivatives and corresponding losses that can materially impact the financial position of the banks. On a separate note, the bank has not mentioned change in valuation approach (unlike DB) as a reason for change in value of derivatives.  

21 февраля, 17:11

Is Citigroup (C) CEO's Pay Cut a Result of Tepid Earnings?

Citigroup Inc.'s (C) Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Michael Corbat received about 6.1% pay cut in his total compensation package.

21 февраля, 17:04

Canary In A Contained Coalmine? HSBC Crashes Most Since Crisis On 'Surprise' Revenue Plunge

Just over 10 years ago, HSBC was the first canary in the world's financial crisis coalmine to signal trouble ahead. Today's 7% bloodbath in the banking behemoth is the biggest drop since the financial crisis after reporting fourth-quarter profit that missed estimates on a surprise drop in revenue, which it warned could fall again this year. As we recently noted, 10 years ago this month, HSBC Holdings, the world's third-largest bank at the time (and one of the most aggressive players in the U.S. market for low-quality mortgages), sent a chill through the financial world with news that its bad-debt charges will be 20% higher than forecast... and became the first canary in the coalmine of what would become the worst financial crisis of a generation. "This is a material negative surprise for HSBC," said John-Paul Crutchley, an analyst at Merrill Lynch.   Foreclosures jumped 35% in December versus a year earlier, according to recent data from RealtyTrac. For the fifth straight month, more than 100,000 properties entered foreclosure because the owner couldn't keep up with their loan payments, the firm noted.   For its part, HSBC said its overall charge will be about $10.56 billion, about 20% higher than the average analyst forecast of $8.8 billion.   In explaining the outcome, the bank said its own risk projections had failed to predict how many borrowers would fall behind on mortgages as interest rates climbed and saddled them with higher monthly payments.   HSBC's warning comes just weeks ahead of its planned report of annual results and follows a December trading update that was already bearish on U.S. mortgage debt.   The problem is with HSBC's portfolio of sub-prime mortgages, which it snapped up in 2005 and 2006, before the U.S. housing slowdown began to bite. Sub-prime loans are sold to home buyers who fail to meet the strictest lending standards. And that set the ball rolling. And now, HSBC';s stock is plunging most since the financial crisis after what Citigroup's Ronit Ghose called “Weak Revenues, Messy Quarter.” Ghose also noted “an unusually large amount of one-offs” in the period, including a multibillion-dollar writedown on the value of its scandal-hit European private bank. HSBC reported a $3.4 billion pretax loss for the quarter that it blamed on slowing growth in its core markets of Hong Kong and the U.K., while its adjusted profit fell $1.2 billion short of analyst estimates. Chief Executive Officer Stuart Gulliver is battling to reverse five years of declining revenue as he pares back HSBC’s sprawling global footprint and reduces expenses. The bank increased its cost-cutting target by $1 billion to $6 billion of savings, while cautioning it faces more than $3 billion of revenue headwinds in 2017, including currency movements and record-low interest rates in the U.K. Executives also warned U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist stance and Brexit could damage their business. The unadjusted loss was driven by $6.1 billion of “significant items” in the quarter, more than six times what Credit Suisse Group AG analysts had forecast. The items included a $2.4 billion writedown of the value of its European private bank and a $1.6 billion adjustment in the bank’s own credit spreads. Of course, in a desperate bid to curry favor with shareholders and prove their confidence in the bank, the lender said it will buy back $1 billion of stock in the first half and signaled it may repurchase more later this year. * * * We are sure all the one write-offs are 'one-offs' and that this is "contained" - just like it was 10 years ago.

21 февраля, 16:52

До начала регулярной сессии поступили сообщения о рейтингах акций следующих компаний

Повышение рейтингов: Аналитики MoffettNathanson повысили рейтинг акций Verizon (VZ) до уровня Buy Снижение рейтингов: Аналитики Deutsche Bank снизили рейтинг акций Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) до уровня Sell с Hold Прочее: Аналитики Morgan Stanley повысили целевую стоимость акций Apple (AAPL) до $154 с $150 Аналитики RBC Capital Mkts повысили целевую стоимость акций Deere (DE) до $109 Аналитики Citigroup присвоили акциям Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) рейтинг Neutral; ; целевая стоимость $16Источник: FxTeam

21 февраля, 14:31

US Futures, European Stocks Rise Despite HSBC Plunge; Dollar, Oil Jump

European stocks rose again with S&P futures higher, while Asian stocks were mixed. The dollar rose jumped on hawkish comments by Philly Fed's Harker, oil rose following optimistic OPEC comments, while gold dropped. Markets have largely ignored the negative result by financial heavyweight HSBC, which posted its largest fall since mid-2015 after reporting a 62% plunge in pretax profit, weighing on UK financials, with the FTSE 100 modestly underperforming. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose the most in more than three weeks after a Federal Reserve policy maker reinforced the chances for a U.S. interest-rate increase as soon as next month. The U.S. currency advanced against most of its major peers after Philly Fed President Patrick Harker told MNI in a Friday interview he “would not take March off the table at this point.” Recent comments from policy makers have leaned on the hawkish side. A voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, Harker had said Feb. 15 that he sees three 25-basis point rate increases as appropriate for 2017. In Europe, mining stocks climbed as surging commodities prices boosted corporate earnings even as HSBC fell the most since August 2015 after its profit missed estimates. Gold slumped and oil climbed toward $54 a barrel. As a result the Stoxx 600 climbed 0.2% as gains in mining companies overshadowed HSBC Holdings Plc’s results. Financial heavyweight HSBC has posted its largest fall since mid-2015 after reporting a 62% fall in pretax profit, weighing on UK financials, with the FTSE 100 modestly underperforming. Elsewhere, mining names have seen a lift with BHP returning to profitability while Anglo American results beat analyst expectations. However, despite the early softness, equities saw a turnaround amid better than expected PMI figures for the Eurozone and Germany. Germany’s DAX rose 0.5 percent, with automakers including Daimler AG and Volkswagen AG among the top gainers. A closer look at HSBC Holdings which today reported a 62% slump in annual pre-tax profit that fell way short of analysts' estimates as the British bank took hefty writedowns from restructuring and pointed to brakes on revenue growth. For the quarter, HSBC reported a $3.4 billion fourth-quarter loss, against analysts' expectations for a profit, on a $3.2 billion impairment in its private banking business as the lender's accounting valuation of the unit caught up with years of declining performance. HSBC CEO Stuart Gulliver said the restructured private bank is now viable as a slimmed-down operation providing advice to wealthy clients referred from the lender's other business lines. "What this doesn't mean is that we are selling the private bank... it means we have restructured the private bank and that's now behind us," Gulliver told Reuters. As a result, HSBC shares slid more than 6 percent after the company reported revenues fell by a fifth from 2015, underscoring the challenge it faces to boost returns amid low global interest rates and slowing economic growth in its core markets of Britain and China. Europe's biggest bank by assets generated profit before tax of $7.1 billion in 2016 compared to $18.87 billion for the previous year, well below the average analyst estimate of $14.4 billion. HSBC also announced a new $1 billion share buy-back, as the lender continued to return cash to shareholders from the sale of its Brazilian business. The bank signaled a number of factors that would pressure its revenues in 2017, including a $500 million increase in regulatory capital costs, lower interest rates in Britain and adverse foreign exchange rates. "We think weak income trends and significant guided headwinds mean consensus downgrades today," Jason Napier, analyst at UBS, wrote in a research note on Tuesday. Also in Europe we got the latest PMI data which showed that the Eurozone private sector and manufacturing growth unexpectedly accelerated to near a six-year high in February and job creation reached its fastest since August 2007, propelled by strong demand and optimism about the future, the surveys found. IHS Markit's eurozone flash composite Purchasing Managers' Index, seen as a good overall growth indicator, rose sharply to 56.0, the highest since April 2011, from 54.4 in January, reversing expectations for a slight dip to 54.3. The broad-based acceleration, which showed France's momentum getting close to Germany's, suggests that if sustained, economic growth could hit 0.6 percent in the first quarter, according to Markit. "The increased momentum is due to demand growing at a stronger rate, but also that upturn becoming more broad-based," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit. "Importantly, what we now have is France joining the party. It's been a laggard in the region, and a drag on the euro zone upturn for a few years ... and there are finally signs the drag is easing." Also of note in Europe, we saw Greek bonds rally, with 2y yield dropping 115bps to 8.31%, while 10y falls 25bps to 7.25%.  The positive sentiment emerged after creditors agreed on Monday for auditors to resume talks in Athens over steps needed to continue bailout of nation. The Greek government accepted to legislate reforms that will be implemented starting 2019 under the prerequisite that they are fiscally neutral, a Greek govt official said in e-mail to reporters, speaking on condition of anonymity. Greek bond strip, the most liquid bundle of the country’s government bonds issued after its last restructuring, is up 1.39c to 68.27c Asian stocks rose, with South Korea’s benchmark climbing 0.9 percent to the highest level since July 2015. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.8 percent, the most in more than a month. Japan’s Topix index, which reached a peak at the start of the year, is trading within a range of about three percentage points over the past 49 days -- the narrowest since 1988.  Bourses in Japan are riding high perhaps reflecting the decent flash manufacturing PMI print in the country which saw the reading bounce 0.8pts to 53.5 and to the highest since March 2014. Elsewhere the Hang Seng and Kospi rose while in China the Shanghai Comp is +0.4%. There’s a story going around on Bloomberg suggesting that Chinese authorities may be considering easing limits on foreign ownership of life insurers, which may also be helping the positive tone. Global equities continue to trade near a record as hopes the Trump rally will continue to generate optimism in economic growth amid signs of an inflation pickup. Yet there remains caution in the markets, with the dollar trading below this year’s highs and investors clamoring for detail on spending plans under Trump’s administration. In global rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 2.45 percent. German 10-year yields rose three basis points after better-than-expected PMI euro- area manufacturing data. The yield on the equivalent French benchmark climbed four basis points. Default insurance on HSBC’s subordinate bonds increased one basis point to 140. The smaller-than-expected buyback could boost the bank’s senior bonds as it implies a less-leveraged balance sheet. The Fed releases minutes this week from its most recent meeting, giving investors a look into how members see Trump’s policies. Data should show the U.S. housing market perking up at the start of the year. The PMI is expected to rise slightly. It’s International Petroleum Week in London and top OPEC, government and company officials are attending. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,353.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 371.90 MXAP up 0.01% to 145.16 MXAPJ down 0.05% to 466.90 Nikkei up 0.7% to 19,381.44 Topix up 0.6% to 1,555.60 Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 23,963.63 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,253.33 Sensex up 0.4% to 28,773.36 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.07% to 5,791.03 Kospi up 0.9% to 2,102.93 German 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 0.314% Euro down 0.6% to 1.0552 per US$ Brent Futures up 0.9% to $56.68/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 2.184% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 1.617% Brent Futures up 0.9% to $56.68/bbl Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,230.84 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.5% to 101.40 Top Overnight News from BBG: HSBC Shares Fall After Missing Profit Estimates on Revenue Drop Burger King Owner Said in Advanced Talks to Buy Popeyes Chain Buffett Takes His Own Advice in Walking Away From Unilever Bid Fed’s Harker Not Taking March Rate Rise Off the Table, MNI Says Fed Minutes May Show Inflation Confidence, Discuss Balance Sheet Telefonica to Sell Telxius Stake to KKR for $1.35 Billion InterContinental Hotels Rises After Announcing Special Dividend Qualcomm Says Samsung Scandal Weakens Korea Antitrust Ruling Trump Picks Outspoken Army ‘Rebel’ as National Security Adviser China Said to Draft Rules to Rein in Asset Management Risks Canadian Court Approves InterOil Transaction With Exxon Mobil Uber Taps Eric Holder to Investigate Discrimination Claims Iron Futures Extend 2017’s Rally to 33% as BHP Warns on Outlook BlackRock Says Space Images Can Help Monitor Chinese Companies Asia equity markets traded mixed with Wall Street closed the day prior, with Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) outperforming amid a weak JPY with USD/JPY holding firmly above 113.00. ASX 200 (-0.1%) recovered most of its early losses after declines seen in the gold and utilities sectors weighed the index. Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) was boosted by retail names and the telecoms sector, despite a weak CNY 100bIn liquidity injection by the PBoC, while Hang Seng (-0.8%) underperformed after HSBC reported disappointing FY16 earnings and index heavyweight Tencent shares saw losses of over 1%. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat despite a strong enhanced liquidity auction, while the 40yr yield printed 11-month highs Top Asian News China Said to Mull Easing Foreign Stake Limits in Life Insurers Chinese Banks’ Off-Book Wealth Products Exceed $3.8 Trillion Ambani’s Jio to Start Charging for Services as Rivals Cry Foul China Retailers Surge as CICC Lauds Alibaba’s ‘New Retail’ Model China Said to Mull Easing Limits on Foreign Life Insurers Over Twinkies and Tweets, China Seeks Clues on Trump Policy Hong Kong Developers Advance Ahead of City’s Budget Speech European bourses rose after a soft start with price action dictated by the latest batch of earning updates. Financial heavyweight HSBC has posted its largest fall since mid-2015 after reporting a 62% fall in pretax profit, consequently weighing on UK financials, with the FTSE 100 modestly underperforming. Elsewhere, mining names have seen a lift with BHP returning to profitability while Anglo American results beat analyst expectations. However, despite the early softness, equities saw a turnaround amid better than expected PMI figures for the Eurozone and Germany. Across fixed income markets, peripheral debt is outperforming led by Greece with markets somewhat positive over talks between Greece and its creditors yesterday with the 2-yr yield falling 140bps. Elsewhere, GE-FR spread has dropped back below 80bps after yesterday hitting its highest level since mid-2012 following the continued narrowing between Le Pen and her opponents in the French Presidential polls. Top European News Euro-Area Economy Picks Up Speed as Orders and Optimism Surge Le Pen Advances in French Polls as Security Concerns Sway Voters Citigroup Agrees $5.4 Million Fine to Settle Rand Collusion Rosneft to Buy Crude Oil From Kurdistan Amid Expansion in Iraq U.K. Posts Record Surplus in Pre-Budget Boost for Hammond Brent Oil Holds Gain as Citigroup Lifts Short-Term Price Outlook Vucic Clears Hurdle to Serb Presidency as Incumbent Steps Aside In currencies, the USD is pushing higher, but the drivers are a little mixed as UST yields show modest gains on the day as yet. The key 10yr rate is still around 2.45%, still well inside the recent 2.30-2.55% range, but the modest gains have been enough to put USD/JPY back in the upper 113.00's. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.5 percent as of 10:30 a.m. in London. The greenback rose after Market News International cited Harker, who votes on policy this year, saying a rate move next month is not “off the table at this point.” That followed hawkish congressional testimony last week from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The moves look tentative as yet, but with the equity markets on a stable footing, near term JPY weakness may well extend a little further before the selling intensifies. The BoJ is showing no signs of letting up on its reinflation process, maintaining 'the line' that the exchange rate is not the target of policy measures currently in play. For EUR/USD, the downside is just as much a consequence of the gaining popularity of Le Pen as it is the broader USD view, with French-German yields widening to the detriment of the EUR across the board. The lead spot rate is now refocusing on the lows seen last week, when we hit a 1.0521 base, but EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF now also pressured as sellers target all currencies. In commodities,  oil advanced as Citigroup Inc. raised its short-term price outlook, citing good OPEC compliance with its output-cut agreement and growing demand in Asia. West Texas Intermediate gained 0.6 percent to $54.04 a barrel and Brent added 0.7 percent to $56.85. Oil prices continue to hold familiar ranges - notably WTI inside USD50.00-55.00. Growing inventory levels offset by strong cooperation with the OPEC agreed cuts, but ongoing scepticism keeps the upside contained despite hedge funds holding significant long positions in both WTI and Brent. Copper prices lead the way for base metals, fighting against USD based weakness near term as supply concerns emanating from the industrial action in Chile support. Industrial metals dropped, partially reversing their biggest gain in a week as funds were seen selling. Aluminum fell 0.4 percent to $1,893 a metric ton and copper lost 0.4 percent.  Gold declined 0.7 percent to $1,229.65 an ounce as the dollar advanced before the U.S. Federal Reserve releases minutes that may give indications of the pace of interest-rate increases. The yellow metal has tested back down to USD1230.00, this from pre USD1245.00 highs. Support remains into USD1,200 in the near term, as the risk perspective maintains an element of caution. Buyers of Silver partially reflects this. U.S. natural gas extended its decline into a third day due to forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather across the east coast. Futures fell 2.4 percent to $2.765 per million British thermal units, the lowest level in three months. In the US calendar we’ll also get the flash PMI’s where the consensus is for a 0.3pt pickup in the manufacturing print and 0.2pt pickup in the services reading. Away from that there’s some Fedspeak due today with Kashkari (8.501m GMT), Harker (12.00pm) and Williams (3.30pm) all scheduled. US Event Docket 8:50am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks on Economy in Golden Valley, MN 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 55.3, prior 55 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 55.8, prior 55.6 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 55.8 12pm: Fed’s Harker to Speak on Economic Outlook 3:30pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks to Students in Boise, Idaho DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap One of the reasons why volatility remains so low in the face of increasingly elevated political risk is that global growth numbers have held up so well in recent weeks and months. Well today's flash PMI numbers in the face of fresh supportive polls for Le Pen in France are a good test of this stand-off. Indeed yesterday’s OpinionWay poll in France revealed that support for Le Pen in the first round of the presidential election has crept up 1% to 27% with support for Macron and Fillon unchanged at 20%. More significantly though, the second round polling revealed that Macron would defeat Le Pen by a score of 58% versus 42%, a tighter margin than the 60% versus 40% in results from the same pollster just four days ago. In fact if you go back to the start of February, the gap was actually as wide as 65% versus 35%. Yesterday’s poll also revealed that a second round contest between Fillon and Le Pen would have the former coming out on top at 56% versus 44%, a tighter gap compared to 57% to 43% four days ago and 61% versus 39% at the start of the month. Those results did come prior to the news yesterday that Le Pen’s Party headquarters was raided over the probe concerning whether Le Pen had used European Parliament funds to pay for fictitious jobs, so we may have to see if that has an impact at all, but the positive momentum in the polls for Le Pen is significant nonetheless. While the polls are also suggesting a tightening in support in favour of Le Pen versus Macron and Fillon, the implied probabilities based on bookmaker odds tell a similar tale. In the PDF today we show a graph showing the recent trend in the implied probabilities with the main takeaway being  that the range between the 3 candidates is hovering around the lowest – at 8% - over the last month. Indeed the implied probabilities stand out 37.8% for Macron, 34.2% for Le Pen and 29.5% for Fillon. That probability for Le Pen is up from 25.5% about a month ago while the probability for Macron has fallen from a high of over 50%. It's fair to say that these numbers reflect a weight of money staked and that the market sees nowhere near as high a probability of a Le Pen victory. Nevertheless it's the recent trend that's interesting. In what was an otherwise quiet day in markets given the US holiday it was the underperformance in French assets which stood out. In equities the CAC ended with a modest -0.05% decline but that compared to a decent +0.60% bounce for the DAX while the Stoxx 600 finished +0.22%. It was the moves in bonds which caught most investors’ eyes though. While 10y Bund yields edged down -0.5bps to 0.293%, 10y OAT’s finished the day up +2.3bps at 1.051% but, more notably, were up as much as +10.0bps at one stage following the poll, touching a high of 1.129% and coming close to the high mark this year of 1.156%. The spread between Bunds and OATs finished at 76bps (and just off the 4 and a bit year high of 77bps) but did blow out as wide as 84bps intraday at one stage and the most since August 2012. The other notable price mover yesterday was Greek bonds. 2y yields rally nearly 70bps and dropped to a one-week low after the Eurogroup meeting yesterday to discuss Greece’s bailout suggested some progress was being made. Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem said that the meeting was “very positive and a good step” and that the EU and IMF will soon return to Athens to continue with discussions, including laying out the more specific details around reforms. Greek finance minister Tsakalotos also confirmed that important progress had been made yesterday and sufficient for bailout auditors to continue talks. Aside from that there wasn’t a huge amount more to report in markets yesterday. Gilts (+1.7bps) and the FTSE 100 (0.00%) also underperformed a bit yesterday. The House of Lords draft law debate kicked off with Bloomberg reporting that 30 amendments have so far been proposed. That’s far less than the 250 submitted by the House of Common’s but the lack of a Conservative majority in the upper house does raise some risks for PM May. The general debate is due to continue today but the more substantive discussions are not expected until next week. This morning in Asia we’ve seen most markets get off to another positive start. Bourses in Japan in particular are riding high (Nikkei +0.68%) perhaps reflecting the decent flash manufacturing PMI print in the country which saw the reading bounce 0.8pts to 53.5 and to the highest since March 2014. Elsewhere the Hang Seng is +0.12% and Kospi is +1.06% while in China the Shanghai Comp is +0.26%. There’s a story going around on Bloomberg suggesting that Chinese authorities may be considering easing limits on foreign ownership of life insurers, which may also be helping the positive tone. Meanwhile US equity index futures are up about +0.20%. Moving on. There wasn’t much to report on the data front yesterday. In the UK the CBI industrial trends survey for February revealed an increase in the output diffusions index by 7pts to 33 which is a level matched only once in the last 16 years. The proportion of firms expecting selling prices to rise increased further too with the index up 4pts to 32 and to the highest since April 2011. Elsewhere in Germany PPI in January was up a much higher than expected +0.7% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) while the flash consumer confidence reading for the Euro area in February fell 1.4pts to -6.2 (vs. -4.9 expected) and so putting it back at November levels. Finally we also got the latest CSPP holdings data at the ECB. Total holdings as of last Friday totalled €64.97bn which implies net purchases settled last week of €2.05bn or an average daily run rate of €409m, which is a little bit more than the average €367m since the program started. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the main focus will be on the release of the February flash PMI’s which the market is expecting to remain relatively stable compared to the January figures. Also due out will be the final CPI revisions in France as well as public sector net borrowing data in the UK. In the US this afternoon we’ll also get the flash PMI’s where the consensus is for a 0.3pt pickup in the manufacturing print and 0.2pt pickup in the services reading. Away from that there’s some Fedspeak due today with Kashkari (1.50pm GMT), Harker (5.00pm GMT) and Williams (8.30pm GMT) all scheduled. BoE Governor Carney and Chief Economist Andy Haldane will speak at a Treasury Select Committee hearing on the UK February inflation report.

21 февраля, 13:16

Why Is Citigroup (C) Up 6.6% Since the Last Earnings Report?

Citigroup (C) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues.

21 февраля, 12:31

HSBC попал под удар

Название этого международного финансового гиганта сегодня появилось в заголовках всех иностранных газет. За прошлый год прибыль банка упала на рекордные 62%.

20 февраля, 15:06

Global Stocks Rise, S&P Futures Hit New Record High Despite US Market Closure

Despite US markets being closed in observance of Washington's birthday, S&P futures spiked during overnight trading, reaching new all time highs before fading some of the gains. Both Asian and European markets traded modestly higher after paring early gains. The U.S. dollar traded in a tight range ahead of a busy week for Federal Reserve events, while the pound rallied the most in more than two weeks ahead of a House of Lords Brexit debate, while South Africa’s rand fell on political turmoil. Oil advanced for a third day and spot gold rose for the fourth session in five. The relatively benign moves this morning follow what was also a fairly tepid end to the week on Friday in markets. Equity markets in the US did however manage to eke out another small gain with the S&P 500 finishing +0.17% following a late bounce into the close. That means it has closed up in 11 of the last 13 trading sessions although at the same time has now gone 49 consecutive sessions without closing with a move up or down by more than 1%. Global volumes have been light with U.S. markets closed for the Presidents Day holiday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1 percent and back toward a 19-month peak reached last week. Shanghai stocks added 0.9% and expectations of solid economic growth in China kept commodities such as copper and iron ore well bid. Japan's Nikkei closed flat after domestic data showed exports disappointed in January even as imports outpaced forecasts. With U.S. bond and stock markets shut on Monday for Presidents’ Day, investors are watching developments in Europe. Political risk is in focus after a poll showed public approval for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling party fell behind the Social Democrats for the first time under her leadership. And in the U.K., some members of the parliament’s upper chamber will seek changes to the draft law that will allow the government to trigger a departure from the EU when it is discussed by the Lords on Monday, Bloomberg reported. The Stoxx Europ 600 rose and U.S. futures pointed higher even as Unilever slumped after Kraft Heinz withdrew a $143 billion takeover bid. Shares in Unilever fell 6.7 percent; stock remains above level from before Kraft offer was revealed last week.  Trading in Kraft and its erstwhile target remains in focus on the back of Friday’s surge in both stocks. People familiar with the talks at the weekend said 3G Capital and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. decided Unilever’s negative response made a friendly transaction impossible. Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2 percent as of 10:43 a.m. in London, with banks bouncing after Friday’s selloff. Telecommunilcation companies outperformed, led by Deutsche Telekom AG following a rally in T-Mobile shares on Friday. Italy's MIB-30 and France's CAC40 have underperformed their European peers as political risk is once again being discounted, following Sunday's announcement that Renzi has quit as leader of the PD, while in France, the latest poll showed Marine le Pen continues to grind higher in the polls, pushing the France-Germany bond spread to intraday wides. Japan’s Topix rose for the first time in three days, reversing an early loss after the dollar strengthened on a Fed official’s comments. Hong Kong shares resumed a rally, closing at the highest since August 2015. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said on Monday in Singapore that she would be comfortable raising interest rates at this point if the economy kept performing the way it has. Speculation the central bank could hike as soon as March has generally underpinned the U.S. dollar, though large long positions leave the market vulnerable to sudden pull backs. Upon returning from holiday, US traders will focus on a bevy of retailers earnings this week, including Wal-Mart Stores, Macy's and Home Depot. The results will be watched for a read on spending as well as for commentary from executives on President Donald Trump's proposal to tax imports. The Fed releases minutes this week from its most recent meeting, possibly giving investors a look into how members see Trump’s policies. Data should show the U.S. housing market perking up a bit at the start of the year. The PMI is expected to rise slightly. PMI surveys for the euro area and its two largest economies this week may show growth momentum is solid, while the Ifo business confidence survey may support that view for Germany. On the interest rate front, no less than five heads of regional Federal Reserve bank are due to speak this week while Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell appears on Wednesday, when minutes of the last policy meeting are also due. Billionaire Warren Buffett will release his annual letter to shareholders with Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s earnings. The U.K.’s House of Lords will debate the article 50 bill, the legislation which will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will on Tuesday testify before the U.K. Parliament’s Treasury Committee. In rates, German Bunds slipped, with the 10-year yield rising less than one basis point from Friday. European government bond yield curves all steepened, as longer-dated bonds underperformed on expectations of long-dated syndicated bond sales this week. Unilever bonds cut, but didn’t erase, Friday’s spread-widening move, as the company is still seen as in play * * * Asia markets traded mostly higher following another late day rebound on Wall Street on Friday after M&A talk lifted NASDAQ 100. ASX 200 (-0.4%) underperformed amid losses seen in the industrials and energy sectors, with both Oil Search and Santos shares lower by around 2%. Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) was positive with the index lifted by Softbank shares following reports that Softbank is prepared to surrender control of Sprint to Co.'s T-Mobile US to seal a merger of the two US wireless carriers, while a weaker JPY also provided support. Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) and Hang Seng (+0.5%) traded higher despite the PBoC failing to provide liquidity into the market. 10yr JGBs traded lower with participants seeking riskier assets, with the curve flattening amid underperformance in the short end. EU bourses likewise opened higher this morning, with Telecoms outperforming after Softbank stated they are prepared to surrender control of Sprint to Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile US. This is in a bid to seal a merger of the two US wireless carriers, this followed reports that Softbank are to approach the Co. for the potential merger. Financials are also seen higher as the UK treasury devised proposals in which RBS will no longer have to sell Williams & Glyn and as such the Co. have announced provisions of GBP 750m1n to deal with the new proposals. A joint statement from Kraft and Unilever hit consumer staples this morning after both companies amicably agreed to withdraw its proposal for a combination of the two companies and as such Unilever's UK listings shares fell 7% at the open. Fixed income markets remain quiet this morning, but Greece remains in focus as the Eurozone finance ministers get ready for their latest discussions on the county's bailout progress. This meeting is widely expected to be the last major deadline for Greece to meet before their next tranche of cash is to be released. With this, the demand for the 2Y has tailed off significantly sending yields higher once again to around 9.7%. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index swung between gains and losses to trade little changed Monday while the U.S. holiday weighed on volumes. Sterling was higher versus all its Group-of-10 peers, rising 0.4 percent to $1.2460. South Africa’s rand declined 0.6 percent before a meeting of the ruling African National Congress’ executive committee that may discuss Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan’s  position. GBPUSD will be in focus today as the as the House of lords are set for a second reading debate at 3.30pm GMT and will conclude with a vote tomorrow evening. Although amendments will not be voted on, one thing to look out for is the speeches and any comments to the press as this could give some clues of the mood of the upper chamber. Elsewhere, FX is relatively choppy with the USD fluctuating against its major counterparts ahead of the holiday in the region, while JPY weakened across the board and related-crosses nursing some of their recent losses as USD/JPY reclaimed the 113.00 handle, amid lack of news flow and data to provide clear direction for the market. In commodities,  copper led an advance in industrial metals, rising 0.9 percent to $6,012.50 a metric ton as the deadlock deepened between Freeport-McMoRan Inc. and Indonesia over mining licenses, while Citigroup gave a bullish outlook for prices. U.S. oil futures climbed 0.7 percent to $53.77 a barrel after spending last week in the narrowest trading range in 13 years, as rising U.S. drilling activity threatened to offset OPEC production cuts. Spot gold edged 0.1 percent higher after gaining three straight weeks. Saudi Arabia's crude production was 10.465MM bpd in Dec according to reports in Jodi and crude exports fell to 8mln bpd in Dec vs 8.3m In Nov. This has led WTI and Brent crude to rise by roughly USD 0.30/bbl, also of note the CFTC cot data shows for last week that non commercial net longs have reached a record high. Elsewhere in commodities, precious and base metals are largely trading sideways but we must remember that the US are away due to President's day. There is nothing on today's US calendar as the nation celebrates Presidents' day. * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The French political newsflow continues to build ahead of the April/May elections. Although it's a US holiday, European politics looks likely to be a big topic today. Indeed on Friday we learned that French  Socialist candidate Hamon and far-left candidate Melenchon had talked to each other about forming a possible joint candidacy while our economists also noted that Hamon was in talks about forming an alliance with the Greens, all of which adding another potentially interesting twist to the election race. Our colleagues highlighted that one first round scenario is where Macron, Le Pen and Hamon-Melenchon could all poll within the margin of error. This could in theory decrease the chances of Le Pen being in the second round, but at the same time also increase her chances of winning if she did make it to the second round. At the same time it would also increase market volatility around the French Presidential election. Our economists did however also highlight that an alliance between Melenchon and Hamon would in reality be difficult to form. Melenchon said that only he could be the candidate of such an alliance and in reality it would be very hard for many Socialist members to accept such a bond. Significantly, over the weekend the news suggests that the two candidates are no closer to bridging the gap. In fact Hamon was reported as saying that “I won’t run after Melenchon” and that “I don’t run after anyone”. According to Bloomberg Melenchon also said that Hamon’s campaign was going nowhere and that he would not hitch a ride on Hamon’s “hearse”. Separate to all this, Le Pen has been forced to deny an allegation from the EU fraud office over the weekend concerning a report that she provided aides with fake parliamentary jobs. Meanwhile, Fillon confirmed on Friday that he would continue to run for Presidency even if a formal investigation opens concerning the employment of his family. So plenty to take in. It’s worth noting that 10y OATs (+2.0bps) underperformed relative to Bunds (-4.7bps) and Treasuries (-3.2bps) on Friday. Meanwhile, over in Italy we’ve had the confirmation that former PM Renzi has quit as leader of the PD, and so triggering a party re-election. Primaries are expected to take place at the end of April or in the first half of May. Our economists also noted in their Focus Europe piece on Friday that an important theme of late has been the increasing probability of a split of Renzi’s PD with the left wing minority apparently intentioned to breakup. They note that if it materialises, the likelihood of a victory of eurosceptic parties at the general election would increase – currently the polls give the PD a small advantage over the 5SM. Hence, markets could interpret a PD split negatively. Indeed our economists’ central case is a break-up of the PD with the consequence being a further increase in political fragmentation by damaging the only large party that remains pro-European. The main question, then, would become how much political support the PD would lose if historical left-wing leaders were to abandon the party. In their view, a split of the PD could open the door to a victory of the eurosceptic parties in the coming election. Not to be outdone, German politics may also have a role in the spotlight today. A weekend poll by the Emnid Institute and published in the Bild newspaper showed that the centre-left Social Democrats party have widened their lead over Merkel’s CDU party. The poll found that the SPD’s support increased 1% in a week to 33%, while the CDU’s share fell 1% to 32%. The poll also suggests that the SPD’s overall percentage has increased 12% in the last four weeks. That is the 3rd poll that we have found which shows a 1% lead for the SPD over the CDU, although the absolute percentage share for the SPD is the highest in this latest Emind poll. Something else worth watching. Staying with Europe, today we’ve also got the scheduled Eurogroup finance ministers meeting in Brussels where ministers are due to discuss the Greece’s bailout. Hopes for progress have seemingly stalled until after the upcoming European elections although German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble did reiterate his confidence over the weekend that Greece is on the right path and that he also expects the IMF to participate in a third bailout package. This morning in Asia the overall tone in markets is a fairly positive one to start the week. The Nikkei (+0.16%), Hang Seng (+0.32%) and Kospi (+0.06%) have all edged higher in the early going although moves for the most part are modest. The exception is in China where the Shanghai Comp is up a slightly stronger +0.75% with banks leading the way. In FX the Euro is little changed following the various weekend  newsflow. Meanwhile there’s been some early data out of Japan where the January trade numbers were released. Exports were reported as rising only +1.3% yoy (vs. +5.0% expected) from +5.4% in the month prior, while a bigger than expected surge in imports (+8.5% yoy vs. +4.8% expected) has resulted in a shrinking of the surplus. Moving on. The relatively benign moves this morning follow what was also a fairly tepid end to the week on Friday in markets. Equity markets in the US did however manage to eke out another small gain with the S&P 500 finishing +0.17% following a late bounce into the close. That means it has closed up in 11 of the last 13 trading sessions although at the same time has now gone 49 consecutive sessions without closing with a move up or down by more than 1%. The VIX (-2.30%) edged back down to 11.49 while markets in Europe were similarly subdued with the Stoxx 600 closing +0.03%. Meanwhile along with the weakness in OATs, peripherals also struggled in Europe on Friday with 10y yields +3bps to +5bps higher. The FTSE MIB (-0.42%) and IBEX (-0.57%) indices also underperformed. 10y Gilts yields did however rally nearly 5bps while Sterling (-0.62%) was weaker following a disappointing UK retail sales report. January retail sales including fuel fell -0.3% mom compared to expectations for a +1.0% rise while excluding fuel, sales also fell unexpectedly (-0.2% mom vs. +0.7% expected), which in turn helped to push the YoY rate down to +2.6% from +4.7%. The only other data came from the US where the conference board’s leading index rose +0.6% mom in January. To this week’s calendar now. With the US on holiday for President’s Day (and markets subsequently closed) the data this morning is reserved for Europe where we’ll get PPI in Germany and CBI selling prices data in the UK. Euro area consumer confidence data will also be released. Kicking things off on Tuesday will be Japan where we get the flash February manufacturing PMI. It’ll be all about the PMI’s in the European session too with flash manufacturing, services and composite readings all due. We’ll also get CPI in France and public sector net borrowing data in the UK. In the US we’ll also get the three flash PMI readings. In the Asia session on Wednesday the lone data release is property prices data in China. Over in Germany we’ve got the IFO survey results for February as well as preliminary Q4 GDP for the UK, along with the various growth components. The final January CPI figures for the Euro area will also be watched. In the US on Wednesday the lone data is January existing home sales, while we’ll also get the FOMC minutes from the January meeting. Thursday kicks off with more GDP data, this time the final January report in Germany while we’ll also get confidence indicators out of France. In the US data due includes initial jobless claims, FHFA house price index and Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey. There’s nothing of note in Europe on Friday while in the US we’ll get new home sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. Away from the data the Fedspeak this week consists of Kashkari, Harker and Williams on Tuesday, Powell on Wednesday and Lockhart on Thursday. Another focus for markets will be today’s Eurogroup meeting where finance ministers are due to discuss Greece’s bailout situation. Also of note today is the House of Lords commencing a two-day debate on the draft law passed in the House of Commons with a vote due on Tuesday. BoE Governor Carney is also due to testify before UK Parliament on Tuesday.

20 февраля, 11:36

Citigroup ожидает дефицита меди в мире до 2020г, прогнозирует рост цен до $8000 за тонну

Аналитики Citigroup Inc. ожидают в 2017 году первого дефицита меди на мировом рынке за шесть лет и отмечают, что предложение будет отставать от спроса по крайней мере до 2020 года.

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20 февраля, 10:48

Citigroup возобновила конвертацию акций «Фосагро»

Citigroup Global Markets Deutschland AG возобновила конвертацию глобальных депозитарных расписок (GDR) «Фосагро» в акции и обратно после ее приостановки в сентябре 2015 г. Об этом говорится в сообщении российской компании.Приостановка операций по конвертации ценных бумаг была связана с арестом 0,13% акций от уставного капитала...

23 марта 2016, 14:15

HSBC и Citi думают о деньгах с вертолетов

HSBC, Citigroup и Commerzbank задумались о "деньгах с вертолетов". Идею прямого экстренного стимулирования потребительского спроса еще в 1969 г. предложил нобелевский лауреат Милтон Фридман.

26 июня 2015, 11:49

Швеция: первый официальный провал QE в истории

Об опасности программ количественного смягчения сейчас не говорит только ленивый, но буквально еще пару лет назад такое мнение высказывали только очень смелые экономисты. Пример Швеции стал первым официальным подтверждением того, что QE неэффективно.

25 февраля 2014, 12:21

JP Morgan продолжит сокращать сотрудников

Крупнейший финансовый конгломерат JPMorgan Chase & Co. собирается сократить персонал в подразделениях, специализирующихся на ипотеке, сообщает The Financial Times.

13 января 2014, 01:06

Птица счастья завтрашнего дня (в ФРС)

кто-то будет первым, но не я… (песня) Как сообщают СМИ, Citigroup удалось сделать своего бывшего вице-председателя, президента Citigroup International и главу по работе с госструктурами, гражданина Израиля Стэнли Фишера замом Джанет Йеллен. Это лучше, чем неуклюжая попытка финансового монстра пропихнуть в ФРС Саммерса ВМЕСТО Йеллен. Это, конечно, глупая ШУТКА.  Думаю, что сегодня даже сам Стиглиц не решился бы повторно обвинить Фишера в его согласии работать на Citigroup и высказать подозрения в конфликте интересов. Если верить СМИ, то сама бабушка Йеллен сначала уговорила Фишера стать самым могущественным (после нее) человеком в мире.  Потом она сама попросила Белый дом номинировать Фишера на пост ее зама. Почему эта номинация "голубя" Фишера сулит счастье? Потому что ФРС становится еще более предсказуемым и надежным, а это в сегодняшнем хрупком мире, ослабленном глобальным финансовым кризисом, очень важно для всех стран и народов.  С весенними попытками тэйперинга в ФРС мы увидели, насколько недостаточно полагаться на способности ФРС объяснять, что же цб Америки планирует делать (forward guidance).  Для укрепления доверия к ФРС важно верить еще и в квалификацию руководителей цб, их опыт и умение дипломатично доносить сложные мысли до всех-всех-всех слушателей.  Йеллен сама обладает этими нужными качествами, но у нее нет такого обширного международного опыта и связей, как у Стэнли Фишера.  Она знает, как управлять США, но хуже знает, как управлять всем миром. Фишера же прекрасно знают в Москве, Бразилии, Мехико, Стамбуле и Сеуле, как и во всех других блее или менее важных столицах.  Его будут внимательно и доброжелательно слушать центральные банки всего мира. Очень важно, что своего бывшего научного руководителя будет слушать Марио Драги, как и его коллеги, не говоря уже о лицах, принимающих решения в ФРС.  Фишер - опытный прагматик, который в период всемирной тряски доказал в цб Израиля, что готов идти на неординарные и даже противоречивые меры, если считает их эффективными.  В этом появляется бОльшая предсказуемость политики ФРС. На картинке и записи Гавина Дэвиса в ФТ видно, как гадают инвесторы и все заинтересованные лица о раскладе сил в ФРС.  Как я уже записывал здесь, 2014 год понятен и обещал быть счастливым. Теперь же мощный тандем бабушки Йеллен и дедушки Фишера при ее лидирующей роли еще больше укрепляет эти ожидания на 2014 и на будущие годы. "Умеренные голуби" в ФРС пусть здравствуют и обеспечивают финансовую стабильность в мире.

17 октября 2013, 00:13

Цирк ушел на каникулы...

...но обещал вернуться... Лидеры сената США смогли достигнуть соглашения по возобновлению работы правительства и отвести угрозу дефолта, передает Financial Times. ... Сенаторы согласовали план, по которому лимит госдолга будет повышен до 7 февраля, госведомства будут финансироваться до 15 января, а к 13 декабря законодатели должны договориться о сокращении бюджетного дефицита.http://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/news/17581821/senatory-praktcheski-soglasovali-plan#ixzz2hupntMR2 Пока они не проголосуют в Палате представителей, торопиться не стоит, но по всем заявлением решение принято... по традиции... в "последний" день. Конкретных параметров пока нет, но республиканцы в итоге отступили. Ставки по месячным векселям резко скорректировались, если вчера рыночные ставки долетели до 0.32% годовых, то сегодня они 0.15%, а размещение векселей прошло по медианной ставке 0.19% годовых с хорошим спросом (Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 4.33, хотя и объем размещения был скромный - всего $20 млрд). Как оказалось, их взлет перед этим был обусловлен сбросом бумаг со стороны Fidelity Investments и JPMorgan, от покупок краткосрочных векселей отказался и Citigroup, решили перестраховаться. Баффет,в очередной раз, назвал происходящее идиотизмом, рынок за этим идиотизмом наблюдал с завидным спокойствием: "чем бы дитя не тешилось...". Fitch на всякий случай поставили рейтинг США на пересмотр с понижением. Пресса билась в истерии вокруг "17-е октября все ближе - дефолт все ближе", хотя никакого дефолта 17-го быть не могло (если сам Минфин его не сделает)... и 18-го и ... немного раньше все даты раскладывал и нет смысла повторяться, на 15 октября у Минфина было $39 млрд и до 23 октября он бы вполне протянул, возможно, даже без сокращения расходов. После утверждения решения (если оно будет принято) демократы и республиканцы должны создать комиссию, которая будет обсуждать вопрос и к середине декабря должны решить бюджетный вопрос, подобный опыт в 2011 году привел к тому, что долго решали и ничего не решили, в итоге вступил в силу автоматический секвестр бюджета... так что возвращение цирка к декабрю-январю очень и очень вероятно. P.S.: ФРС предстоит усиленно думать над решениями, особенно если цирк вернется к декабрю-январю. 

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11 апреля 2013, 09:02

США: Citigroup и Goldman Sachs получили "минутки" ФРС раньше остальных участников рынка

Как стало известно, ряд банков, включая Citigroup и Goldman Sachs Group, получили "минутки" последнего заседания ФРС на 19 часов раньше остальных участников рынка. Представители Федрезерва сообщили, что преждевременная рассылка произошла случайно.

29 января 2013, 14:39

ФРС опубликует результаты стресс-тестов 7 марта

Федеральная резервная система 7 марта опубликует результаты банковских стресс-тестов, которые покажут, насколько устойчивы американские финансовые институты.Условия стресс-тестов для банков США Всего в рамках реформы финансовой системы Додда-Фрэнка, стресс-тесты пройдут 19 крупнейших банков США. Кредитные учреждения должны показать достаточность капитала на случай наступления экономической рецессии. Финансовые власти обязали проходить мониторинг банки, чей капитал составляет от $50 млрд.14 марта появятся более подробное описание результатов проверки финансового сектора. Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (так называется программа стресс-тестирования) началась в ноябре 2012 г. Всего Федрезерв планирует проверить 30 банков.В сценарий стресс-теста заложено крайне негативное развитие событий: увеличение безработицы с текущих 7,8% до 12%, падение цен на фондовые активы на 50%, падение цен на недвижимость на 20% и снижение ВВП на 5%. Результаты своих стресс-тестов кредитные организации должны представить до 7 января.Результаты стресс-теста ФРС США. Минимальная достаточность капитала: 5% ФРС заявляет, что 19 банков должны были повысить свой капитал до $803 млрд по сравнению с $420 млрд в 2009 г.Напомним, что в ходе предыдущей проверки, которая состоялась в марте, у 4 системообразующих банков, в том числе и Citigroup, выявили недостаток капитала, вследствие чего глава Citi Викрам Пандит лишился своего поста.Еще один немаловажный момент: финансовым организациям, которые не прошли стресс-тесты в прошлый раз, сейчас запрещено платить дивиденды и проводить обратный выкуп акций, хотя желание такое у них есть. Ожидается, что по результатам стресс-тестов будет вновь подниматься вопрос о снятии этого запрета.

17 января 2013, 18:33

Прибыль Citigroup выросла на 25,5%

Один из крупнейших банков США - Citigroup Inc. - зафиксировал рост чистой прибыли в IV квартале текущего года.Прибыль за отчетный период составила $1,2 млрд, или $0,38 в расчете на акцию, что на 25,5% ниже по сравнению с показателями прошлого года, когда прибыль за аналогичный период достигла $956 млрд, или $0,31 на акцию.Результат оказался хуже ожиданий экспертов, поскольку прибыль Citigroup без учета разовых факторов и налоговых льгот составила $0,69 на акцию, в то время как аналитики прогнозировали показатель в $0,96 на акцию.Выручка Citigroup увеличилась на 6% до $18,2 млрд с $17,2 млрд годом ранее.

19 ноября 2012, 11:14

Citigroup вновь сокращает штат

Один из крупнейших банков США - Citigroup Inc. - планирует сократить штат инвестиционно-банковского подразделения на 300 человек в текущем году. В прошлом году Citigroup Inc. сократил 900 рабочих мест (5% штата) инвестиционно-банковского подразделения по всему миру на фоне падения показателей выручки и рентабельности. Во время финансового кризиса 2008-2009 гг. Citi проводил массовые увольнения, однако затем стал переманивать специалистов с высокой квалификацией у конкурентов, чтобы восстановить долю рынка.

29 октября 2012, 19:17

Дети вице-президента CNBC были убиты на следующий же день после публикации каналом скандальной статьи

На этой неделе новостная организация CNBC привлекла внимание мейнстрим-СМИ к крупнейшему в истории США иску об отмывании денег и рэкете, в рамках которого «банкстеры» и их партнёры по рэкету обвиняются в полученных нечестным путём доходах в размере 43 триллионов долларов.В иске говорится, что в дело вовлечены должностные лица, находящиеся на самых высоких постах в правительстве и финансовом секторе.После того, как эта информация удивительным образом оказалась в мейнстрим-новостях, начались разворачиваться весьма подозрительные события.В течение нескольких часов исходная страница, где размещался материал, была удалена, а старший вице-президент CNBC Кевин Крим получил известие о том, что его дети были убиты при очень загадочных обстоятельствах.Похоже, сначала произошло убийство, затем была удалена страница.По сообщениям основных СМИ, в убийстве детей виновна няня, которая предположительно зарезала обоих детей.Те же источники новостей сообщают о том, что после убийства няня якобы сама себе перерезала горло.Полиция обнародовала очень мало информации, и хотя весь случай целиком пока не был озвучен официально, кажется вполне вероятным, что убийства, это не что иное, как демонстрация силы против прессы из-за публикации такой убийственной информации о самых влиятельных людях в мире.Вот некоторая информация об иске с вебсайта Marketwatch:«В рамках судебного процесса в окружном суде юридической фирмой Spire Law Group, действующей от лица домовладельцев страны и налогоплательщиков Нью-Йорка, а также в соответствии с законами о компенсации налогоплательщику, коллективный деликтный иск (иск о взыскании истекающих из причинения вреда обязательств; прим. mixednews.ru) был расширен на федеральный суд Бруклина, Нью-Йорк, в стремлении прекратить все конфискации по ипотеке в пределах страны вплоть до решения по возврату 43 триллионов долларов ($43,000,000,000.00) «банкстерами» и их сообщниками, также в рамках дела были выдвинуты требования на аудит ФРС и всех «спасательных программ» бывего генерального инспектора программы TARP Нейла Барофски, который заявил, что никакие из денег в рамках программы TARP и других «спасательных денег», выделявшихся из казны, никогда не были погашены, несмотря на заверения ответчиками в обратном, а также аналогичные публичные заверения на национальном телевидении президентом Обамой и администрацией президента Обамы, и в более частном порядке Конгрессу Соединённых штатов.Поскольку администрация Обамы уголовно не преследует никого из «банкстеров», и по сути активно занимает у этих же «банкстеров» деньги для кампании г-ны Обамы, национальная группа инициирующих дело истцов-домовладельцев была вынуждена расширить свой иск, включив рэкет, отмывание денег и преднамеренные нарушения санкций в отношении Ирана и Закона об эмбарго национальными банками, включенными в число ответчиков-»банкстеров».Одними из предполагаемых заговорщиков являются Генеральный прокурор Холдер, помощник генерального прокурора Тони Вест, бывший губернатор Нью-Джерси Джон Корзайн, бывший министр финансов и один из банкстеров Роберт Рубин, министр финансов Тимоти Гейтнер, Викрам Пандит (недавно ушедший в отставку опальный председатель совета директоров Citigroup), старший советник Белого дома Валери Джарретт, бывший «директор по коммуникациям» в администрации Обамы Анита Данн, муж Аниты Данн и главный юрисконсульт предвыборной кампании Обамы Роберт Бауэр, а также сами «банкстеры», и их аффилированные и доверенные лица.Ожидается, что все новости на эту тему с CNBC будут удалены, и другим новостным источникам воспрепятствуют в освещении этой информации. Тем не менее, сохранились скриншоты оригинальной статьи на CNBC, подтверждающие подлинность этой истории.Это второй случай на этой неделе, в котором высокопоставленные руководители стали жертвой подозрительного нападения, которое очень напоминает заказное убийство.The Telegraph 25 октября сообщил о том, что в Брюсселе 60-летний руководитель в нефтяной компании ExxonMobil Николас Мокфорд был застрелен на глазах у своей жены.http://mixednews.ru/archives/26036 

23 октября 2012, 05:40

Консолидированные результаты бангстеров

На данный момент одно из самых быстро сокращающихся подразделений у бангстеров в плане эффективности и отдачи - это трейдинговое подразделение. Все, что связано с торговлей акциями, долговыми бумагами, валютой, сырьем, деривативами - все падает. Исторический максимум по доходам от торговли пришелся на 2009 год - в тот самый момент, когда бангстеры в полной мере загрузились по самым минимумам после собственноручно созданной паники. Ну и все.Ниже суммарные результаты для шести американских банков (JPM + C + BAC + WFC + GS +MS). Кликните, чтобы в более высоком разрешении посмотреть.Деньги на рынке закончились. Прибыль бангстеров по торговыми счетам равна убытку других участников торгов. С марта 2000 по июнь 2007 они отжали 282.5 млрд долларов зафиксированной прибыли - именно на такую сумму другие трейдеры понесли убытки. С сентября 2007 по сентябрь 2012 забрали еще 216.2 млрд. За последние 3 года с 2009 отдача упала почти в 4 раза (!). Все, приехали. Всех опустошили. Всем спасибо, все свободны. Массовый уход клиентов с рынка, институциональных фондов и частных трейдеров привел к тому, что обороты торгов упали до минимумов за 7-10 лет. Еще хорошо, что активность на долговом и валютном рынках сохраняется. На фондовом рынке все крайне скверно. Там уже нет никаких уровней, интереса контрагентов. Это полностью искусственная среда. При отсутствии активности могут рисовать абсолютно любые уровни, что подтверждает сильнейший 3 квартал в плане роста S&P за 15 лет. Минуточку. Самый сильный рост за 15 лет на фоне самого слабого отчетного квартала для корпораций за целое десятилетие, не считая острой фазы кризиса?! В удивительное время мы живем. Правда, крыться все равно не об кого. Благо, что ФРС помогает. Но одним благо, другим вообще дело до этого нет. Не кажется ли вам ситуация критической, когда при наиболее благоприятной ситуации банки показывают столь омерзительные результаты? Лучше конъюнктуры, чем сейчас уже не будет. В самом деле, не каждый же год обеспечивать рост S&P на 20% при хаях на долговом рынке?Т.е. предельно тепличные условия. Тут и крыло взаимопомощи от ФРС в виде неограниченного впрыска ликвидности с готовностью выкупить по номиналу любое дерьмо в любой момент по первому требованию, и конъюнктура благоприятствующая (фондируются под ноль, рынки на исторических максимумах). Кроме того, Бен Бернанке начал говорить об оживлении кредитования! Казалось бы. Если не сейчас прибыль генерировать, то когда еще? Сейчас в США нет организаций, которые бы дотировались столь агрессивно, как первичные дилеры. Абсолютно тепличные условия.Пока JPM и WFC вытягивают ситуацию. Объективно, они сейчас лучшие среди остальных. Вот если посчитать тоже самое, но для GS + MS + BAC + CХудшие результаты с кризиса 2008 тогда, когда созданы все условия для генерации прибыли?Если это не начало конца, тогда что же? В принципе, за последние 5 лет стало понятно, что текущий формат финансовой системы себя изжил. Они пытались протянуть за счет допинга от центробанков, но не работает. Когда было создано все возможное для запуска системы, когда устранили конкурентов и монополизировали отрасль, когда взяли банкиров под тотальную опеку центробанков? И вот после этого такие результаты?! Мне как то страшно за будущее западных банков.Стоит учесть, что помимо трейдинга сокращается все остальное. Процентная маржа сжимается. Борьба за клиентов и заемщиков приводит к понижению кредитных ставок, что сокращает чистую процентную маржу. Ранее, во многом благодаря высокой марже (разрыву между фондированием и кредитованием) банки относительно успешно пережили кризис. Этот фактор нивелируется. Банковские услуги также стагнируют, что видно на графиках выше.И еще. Пусть никого не пугает всплеск доходов в 2009-2010. Надо учесть укрупнение банков. Произошли слияния и поглощенияJPMorgan + Washington Mutual (2008) + Bear Stearns (2007) + Bank One (2004)Bank of America + Merrill Lynch (2008) + Countrywide Financial (2008)Wells Fargo + Wachovia (2008)Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley забрали долю рынка и активы Lehman Brothers, не считая сотен более мелких обанкротившихся контор

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16 октября 2012, 03:58

Состояние Citi

Меня не покидает ощущение, что Wall St концентрирует в себе все худшее, что может быть в человеческой натуре. Все слабости и пороки. Надо иметь обширное повреждение мозга или как минимум быть укуренным в хлам, чтобы в отчете Citi найти что нибудь позитивное и оправдать практически годовой максимум акций и 5% дневной рост акций на фоне полного бардака в финансах компании.Рассказ стоит начать с того, что квартальная прибыль Citi была буквально вынута из карманов налогоплательщиков. Пока народ скрежет по сусекам, пытаясь изыскать несколько дополнительных баксов, платя налоги, то бравые парни из Citi дотируются за счет федерального бюджета вот уже пять добрых лет.За 3 квартал они слили несколько (1.9) миллиардов долларов на их безбашенных инвестициях черт знает куда и зафиксировали общий убыток за квартал в 964 млн. Это не проблема. За счет налогового вычета им компенсировали 1.5 млрд и конечная чистая прибыль составили 493 млн.Так как Citi является "национальным достоянием" США, то эта компания может не платить налоги, но даже дальше можно пойти. США должны платить Citi за то, что эта чудная компания существует. С 2007 года Citi разучились вести бизнес и стали генерировать стабильные убытки. Чтобы поддержать Citi на плаву, тоCiti получил в период с декабря 2007 по декабрь 2009 налоговых вычетов на 34.5 млрд долларов. Это абсолютно беспрецедентная дотация за всю историю существования США, как государства. Чтобы оценить масштаб беспредела, то достаточно посмотреть на кумулятивные уплаченные налоги за последние 5 лет. К настоящему моменту из правительства было получено более 28 млрд. Bank of America, как второе достояние США также не платит налоги. Citi был рекапитализирован за счет ФРС и правительства на 88.5 млрд. Эти деньги пошли в капитал банка.Citi использовал кредитные механизмы ФРС в острую фазу кризиса на пике до 99.5 млрд долларов. По данным ФРС, эти деньги были возвращены.Citi использовал дополнительную помощь от казначейства США на 45 млрд долларов. Частично деньги вернулись в минфин.Citi активно участвовал в распределение денег от программ QE1, QE2, QE3Итого по факту от ФРС и казначейства к настоящему моменту чистая помощь была оказана в размере 28 млрд (налоговых вычетов) + 88.5 млрд (рекапитализация) = 116.5 млрд. Круто, да? )) Это не считая помощи от QE операций.Отчет Citi в высшей степени омерзителен абсолютно по всем ключевым статьям и пунктам. Это буквально плавучее дерьмо.Не смотря на то, что ФРС с остервенением лупит по экономике баксом вот уже 4 года подряд, каждая новая программа оказывается все менее эффективной по сравнению к предыдущей. Это видно и по торговым операциям двух крупнейших игроков, которые отчитались к настоящему моменту. Если JPM снизил эффективность, но хоть имитирует напряженную борьбу, то Citi скатывается куда то в зад. До креатива 2008 года еще далеко, но банк делает отчаянные попытки повторить былой подвиг по оформлению годовых убытков по торговым операциям.Результаты Citi по объему выручки – это просто мерзость какая-то. Совокупный доход активно пикирует на дно, но еще скажите спасибо тому, что чистый процентный доход достаточно высок. Почему он высок? Все очень просто. Чистая процентная маржа стала выше, чем раньше за счет того, что фондируются они под ноль процентов, а выдают кредиты относительно дорого. Это преимущественно заслуга ФРС и низких процентных ставок. А вот если исключить этот фактор и посмотреть на конкретную деятельность Citi по оказанию финансовых услуг, то вы увидите полный провал (красная линия на графике ниже). Многолетний минимум и без каких либо признаков улучшения.Так откуда они взяли якобы прибыль?Во первых, как я сказал, они налоги не платят, а только берут деньги из казначейства. Это весомый фактор итоговой чистой прибыли.Во-вторых. Непроцентные операционные расходы стагнируют и находятся возле минимумов. Банк экономит на всем, что только можно, но даже это не помогает делу. Оптимизация издержек идет, но толку мало.В-третьих. Они снизили отчисления в резервы на потери по ссудам.Вот, любуйтесь..Если же вы думаете, что балансовые показатели улучшились, то ошибаетесь. Потреб.кредиты продолжают сокращение, корпоративные немного растут, но в целом ничего хорошего.C отчетом JPM можно ознакомиться у Димы В прошлом посте календарь отчетностей с ошибками. Это Гугл левые данные дал. Тогда лучше здесь смотреть http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/earnings-calendar.aspx

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22 сентября 2012, 23:12

Начались мощные кибер-атаки на серверы главных институтов Wall Street

Начались мощные кибер-атаки на серверы главных институтов Wall Street, сообщает агентство Reuters.Такие организации как Bank of America Corp, JPMorgan Chase и Citigroup с конца прошлого года подвергаются мощной серии кибератак.В начале этой недели Bank of America и JPMorgan Chase столкнулись с необъяснимыми сбоями в работе своих сайтов. Вирусы грубо вмешиваются в работу серверов и не только делают сайты недоступными для пользователей, но и блокируют доступ к частной информации. Успешная атака на крупные банки заставляет задуматься: она показывает, что информационные ресурсы США уязвимы. По сообщению источника Reuters, атаки могут являться подготовкой к более мощным. Даже если это будет сделано не сейчас. Тогда же телеканал NBC сообщил, что атака, возможно, спланирована хакерами из Ирана. По неофициальной информации, в последние годы вирусы Flame, Stuxnet и Gauss атаковали ядерные объекты Исламской Республики. Действия компьютерного червя не раз приводили к отключению систем автоматизации на ядерных объектах в Натанзе и Куме. В Тегеране давали понять, что связывают это с действиями США и Израиля.Источник: http://rt-russian.livejournal.com/303700.html