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17 августа, 17:04

White House Confirms "Cohn Intends To Remain In Position"

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Update 2: The White House has issued a statement confirming that "Gary Cohn intends to remain in position as NEC Director." The only problem is - the market is ignoring it. Presumably, the market now believes it is just a matter of time... *  *  * Update 1: Goldman Sach stock and the market are rebounding after Axios reports "source with direct knowledge says rumor is '100% False'"... Rumor flying around Wall Street that Gary Cohn has resigned. Source with direct knowledge tells me rumor is "100% false." — Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) August 17, 2017 The reaction... *  *  * As we detailer earlier, amid calls from many Americans for his resignation, former Goldman President and Trump's director of national economic council Gary Cohn has remained silent. However, Goldman Sachs (and the whole market) is sliding this morning as a slew of headlines cross trading desks offering unconfirmed rumors that Cohn is set to resign. FYI: This was the original Gary Cohn rumor tweet from a somewhat reputable source but not MSM; appears to have been deleted pic.twitter.com/6W3vI5HLpr — Quoth the Raven (@QTRResearch) August 17, 2017 Goldman began to sink yesterday as things escalated... VIX is up and the whole market slid on this rumor... We repeat - these rumors are completely unconfirmed, but note that this follows Yale School of Management's Jeffrey Sonnenfeld's warning that the market would crash if Cohn resigned... If Gary Cohn steps away it would crash the markets: Jeffrey Sonnenfeld from CNBC.   "I don't want to be an alarmist, but there is a lot of faith that he is going to help carry through the tax reform that people are looking for," Sonnenfeld said on "Squawk Box."   "I think if he steps away, it would crash the markets."

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11 августа, 00:05

The Next Market Crash Will Not Be Televised

Authored by John Galt via JohnGaltFla.com, Way, way, way, way back before televisions were generally available in color, cable was a luxury reserved for hotels and the wealthy, and financial television was reserved to Louis Rukeyser and a weekly program on PBS and the “Nightly Business Report”, the idea of information beyond the 6:30 p.m. national newscast was considered absurd. In fact when the 1987 Market Crash hit live on cable television, it was the quixotic moment which brought financial news out of the shadows and into the forefront. From that moment forward, long after the great Financial News Network (FNN) was absorbed in a merger with CNBC, financial news broadcasting became a mix of some financial analysis, some real news, and one hell of a lot self-promotion by various financial houses to promote the idea that everyone, even cab drivers, hairdressers, and homeless people just had to be in the stock market. Then came LTCM in 1998. Then came the 2000 tech crash. Then came the 9/11/2001. Then came the 2008 crash. And what happened? The parties guilty of bilking individual shareholders got a slap on the wrist. The financial news channels which accepted hundreds of millions of dollars from the financial promoters were never investigated nor prosecuted for potential fraud. And the truly guilty, the banksters and brokers, basically got away with armed robbery with a laugh, a smile, and a tacky commercial promotion in the 6 a.m. hour to urge you to buy a company’s stock or invest in something worse. This brings my readers to the bit question and a terrifying answer which follows: WHY will the next market crash not be televised? Re-watch the FNN video from 1987 above one more time. Pay attention to the interview with legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones and FNN’s Bill Griffith (yes, the one and same CNBC Bill Griffith). Remember this quote: “Wall Street uniformly, was, uh, unprepared for this magnitude of a drop” As America has become complacent and dependent on the technology of mathematicians and hucksters versus experienced financial traders who have warned us about the dot-com bust, the real estate bubble, and other insanity in the past, the risks are up proportionately but the crash is envisioned to occur on television like those in the past. Thirty, twenty, and even ten years ago, that was a realistic prospect where all of us watched the circus unfold live with various annoying television personalities explaining that this was just a “gully” or a “burp” or accident which will self-correct because the Central Bankers said so. Unfortunately for the average investor and Joe Six-Pack on Main Street, Wall Street has devised a plan to trade in the dark. A methodology using their high speed algorithms which will make the whining of “program selling” in 1987 look foolish so they can engage in trading between the wealthiest of traders which works logically, until all of the clients suddenly scream out into the darkness “No Mas.” Why is this suddenly a concern? In the past year the United States has experienced numerous “flash crashes” in its equity, foreign exchange, and commodity markets. The same could be said of individual overseas markets where mini-crashes, much like those in the U.S. system, were dismissed as random “fat finger” trades or computer errors. Yet the system continued to function like it did in 1987 and 2008 but no one ever asked “what happens when all the liquidity is gone” due to the lack of specialists and on the spot providers of liquidity of last resort. America, Asia, and Europe may well be approaching that moment and the American people will not even be out of bed nor realize that the crash has already happened. Thanks to dark pools, off-market trading operations, and foreign governments providing shields for undocumented exchanges of currency, commodities, and in some case equities (so as to hide stock market purchases by foreign central banks) the crash could be 90% complete before trading even begins at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, when most individuals would hope to have a fighting chance to save what is left of their 401K’s or personal portfolios, could even begin to sell their holdings. This 2014 article from Bloomberg highlights the potential disaster in only a positive, not so much a dangerous light: Dark pools have a scary name, and to critics they’re scary places: private stock markets housed inside some of Wall Street’s biggest banks. Created to let big investors swap large blocks of shares in secret, they’ve expanded to become a significant part of daily stock trading. More shares now change hands in dark pools than on the New York Stock Exchange. The graph which accompanied the article above is just as scary: But don’t worry, the situation was changed as regulators jumped into the fray so as to prevent another 2008, right? Uh, no: The full report from Cowen which contains the chart above can be read at this link. From the data above from 2016, it is easy to see that the total volume of the NYSE and NASDAQ combined was far less than the private dark pools and thus provides and advantage to the large financial houses when preparing for or initiating a crash; be it by accident or on purpose. Assuming it was caused by a foreign or domestic political event, or some other irregularity causing an algo driven sell program to start liquidating equities in the pre-market and overnight hours, the American public would be CLUELESS that a crash was already underway unless they were one of the 100,000 or so of us that watch overnight markets via the internet, our personal trading systems, or what remains of financial news online and via cable. Unfortunately for the American people, the belief is “it is different this time” is being promoted by the hucksters once again. In 1987, it was over three years since a 10% correction had happened; right now we are at 10 years plus and counting for the longest period without a “normal” or substantive equity correction in modern American financial history. Yet when the crash started in October 1987, well, hear it from the lips of the legendary Louis Rukeyser himself: Watch it again; he did in fact say a weekly loss of 17.5% before the crash on Black Monday. In those days, there were at least hints of a storm gathering yet the lack of internet trading platforms left one re-dialing their brokers in futility and numerous individuals locked out of their stock broker’s offices as the panic accelerated on October 19, 1987. Does anyone think it will be any different this time should such a crash occur and the markets stop trading due to a NYSE trading halt? This time the crash for the masses will not be on television until it is too late. This time it is truly different as the average person will be so swamped by the liquidation of equities long before the market opens, if it opens, thus leaving the average American family holding the bag. In the end, the government will be forced to swoop in and buy what is left of most portfolios with guarantees from the Federal Reserve and emergency action by Congress to nationalize pension program, IRAs, and 401K’s to prevent retirees from being put out on the street. The average non-retirement based individual shareholder will be lucky to get 30 cents on the dollar if not wiped out completely. At the same time, the banks will be “guaranteed” liquidity to shield against a bank run which would portend much darker economic and political consequences, especially if the stock market and banks fail to open after such an event begins. In the end, just like 1987, 1998, and 2008, the taxpayer will end up holding the bag. They will never see the crash coming if it takes a few days or a few minutes to occur. And modern television will cover it much like they did in 2007 and 2008: After the financial nuclear bomb has already gone off leaving the citizenry as the bag-holders while the banksters retain their ill gotten gains.

07 августа, 15:48

Former Central Banker Comes Clean: The Bond Bubble is About to Burst

There’s a strange thing about Central Bankers… When they are working at a Central Bank, they never see financial problems, even if said problems are both MASSIVE and obvious. As Fed Chair in 1999, Alan Greenspan claimed it was impossible to know if stocks were in a bubble … when stocks were in their single largest bubble in 100 years. The next year, the market crashed. As Fed Chair in 2007, Ben Bernanke claimed the subprime mortgage meltdown was “contained” and the effects would not “spillover” into the economy. The next year the market crashed as the economy imploded. And this year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen announced that there wouldn’t be another financial crisis in our “lifetime.” We’ll see what comes next year. Actually, we KNOW what’s coming, because for whatever reason, as soon as a Central Banker leaves the Fed, he or she suddenly changes their tune and starts telling the truth. On that note, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan issued a crystal clear warning on Friday. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan issued a bold warning Friday that the bond market is on the cusp of a collapse that also will threaten stock prices. In a CNBC interview, the longtime central bank chief said the prolonged period of low interest rates is about to end and, with it, a bull market in fixed income that has lasted more than three decades. "The current level of interest rates is abnormally low and there's only one direction in which they can go, and when they start they will be rather rapid," Greenspan said on "Squawk Box." Source: CNBC Greenspan’s had a decent record of honesty in the last few years, noting that excessive debt is the root of the financial system’s and that the reintroducing the Gold Standard would solve many of our current problems. Again, the former Fed Chair seems to have “got religion” when it comes to finance. And he’s now issuing a major warning that the bond market is in serious trouble. He’s not wrong either. Globally the Bond Bubble has reached truly astonishing levels. The world has added $68 TRILLION in new bonds to the debt markets since 2007. As a result of this, today the world’s Debt to GDP ratio is s staggering 327%. All of this new was issued based on assumptions that interest rates would remain at or near ZERO. So what happens to all this debt when yields start rising, bond payments increase, and borrowers start defaulting? For more insights that can help you see serious returns from your investments, join our FREE daily e-letter, Gains Pains & Capital. Every weekday you'll receive our research reports before the market's open. In the last 6 months we've called the massive sell-off in the $USD, the out-performance by Emerging Markets, and more. And best of all, it's 100% totally FREE. To join us, swing by: http://gainspainscapital.com/ Best Regards Graham Summers Chief Market Strategist Phoenix Capital Research    

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04 августа, 20:04

Blue Apron Tumbles To Record Lows After Slashing Workforce By 24% (Just 36 Days After IPO)

As one veteran market participant exclaimed: "Seriously, how is that not illegal?" Just 36 days after the company IPO'd to much CNBC-based applause and "the IPO market is back", Blue Apron shares are languishing at record low $6.01 (down 45% from its highs of $11) drastically below the IPO price of $10. It is tumbling to fresh lows today after announcing - ahead of its earnings next week - that the company is cutting 1,270 jobs from its New Jersey facility according to a public notice Friday. It had 5,202 workers as of March 31. Last month the company said Chief Operating Officer and co-founder Matt Wadiak is stepping down.

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04 августа, 16:26

Jim Paulsen: "The Bull Market Could Continue Forever"

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The stock market "has an awful good gig going," according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold, who appears capable of looking through the current collapse in 'hard' economic data, predicting a nirvana-like world ahead (sounding ominously like the "permanently high plateau" we've heard of before).   Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, Paulsen explained: "We've got a fully employed economy, rising real wages. We restarted the corporate earnings cycle. We've got strong confidence among business and consumers."   "The kick is we can do all of this without aggravating inflation and interest rates."   "If that's going to continue, I think the bull market could continue to forever." It seems 'real' macro data and the yield curve disagrees for now... but what do they know... Paulsen goes on to hedge just a little... "Ultimately the bull market does continue until we aggravate some inflation, and until we have to raise bond yields and interest rates some more."   "I think that's going to happen eventually, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen anytime soon. So I think the bull probably continues through the end of this year." As a gentle reminder, we have heard this kind of 'everything is awesome' chatter from Mr. Paulsen before... July 14, 2008 Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Fargo's primary investment unit, expects home prices to steady by year end, with the pace of foreclosures slackening shortly.   Most of the subprime debt at the center of the current crisis already has been written down by financial institutions, he notes, while many subprime borrowers who lost their homes are returning to rental units.   "Folks who compare this home-price cycle to the one that occurred in the early '80s obviously have short memories," Paulsen says.   "In the 1980s the economy was in a deep recession, mortgage rates were at 17% or more, and unemployment [was] hitting a post-Great Depression high of nearly 12%." The bottom line, as we noted earlier, is stock market investors better hope that the bond market investors are wrong.. but then again if bond buyers are wrong and rates rise, as Greenspan warned, "that is very bad for asset prices at current equity market valuations."

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31 июля, 03:04

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 30, 2017Monday:• At 9:45 AM ET, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July. The consensus is for a reading of 62.0, down from 65.7 in June.• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in the index.• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures are down 1, and DOW futures are down 11 (fair value).Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $49.95 per barrel and Brent at $52.76 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $42, and Brent was at $41 - so oil prices are up about 20% year-over-year.Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.31 per gallon - a year ago prices were at $2.14 per gallon - so gasoline prices are up 17 cents per gallon year-over-year.

30 июля, 18:08

The Perfect Crash Indicator Is Flashing Red

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com, What’s the last big toy you buy when things have been good for a really long time and you already have all the other toys? An RV, of course. A dubious thing to own if you already have a house, but when the good times seem likely to roll on forever, why the hell not? And what’s the first thing you sell when you lose your job and your stocks are tanking? That very same RV. Which makes new RV sales a useful indicator of our place in the business cycle. What does it say now? Here you go: Notice the mini-spike in the late 1990s and the major spike in mid-2000s, both of which were followed by corrections. Now note the mega-spike from 2010 and 2016. And how are things going so far this year? Well, the space is on fire: ‘The RV space is on fire’: Millennials expected to push sales to record highs   (CNBC) – RV shipments are expected to surge to their highest level ever, according to a forecast from the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association.   It would be the industry’s eighth consecutive year of gains.   Thor Industries and Winnebago Industries posted huge growth in their most recent earnings report.   Those shipments are accelerating, and should grow even more next year, the group said. Sales in the first quarter rose 11.7 percent from 2016.   Much of the growth can be attributed to strong sales of trailers, smaller units that can be towed behind an SUV or minivan, which dominate the RV market. The industry also is drawing in new customers.   As the economy has strengthened since the Great Recession, and consumer confidence improved, sales have picked up, said Kevin Broom, director of media relations for RVIA.   Two of the major players in the industry, Thor Industries and Winnebago Industries, both manufacturers of RVs, reported huge growth in their most recent earnings report. Thor saw sales skyrocket 56.9 percent to $2.02 billion fromlast year. Winnebago’s surged 75.1 percent last quarter to $476.4 million.   Gerrick Johnson, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, attributed much of that growth to acquisitions. Thor bought Jayco, then the No. 3 player in the industry, last June; Winnebago bought Grand Design in October.   Thor stock has experienced strong growth over the past year of almost 40 percent. Winnebago tells an even better story: Its shares are up 56 percent over the past 12 months.   “They’ve done massively well because they’ve made massively creative acquisitions,” said Johnson. “Wall Street didn’t realize how creative those deals were. Each quarter they came through. The RV space is on fire, and the demand metrics are quite positive.” What we have here is another classic short. During the past couple of recessions, RV stocks plunged as everyone came to their senses and stopped buying $60,000 motel rooms. Based on the above chart that’s a pretty good bet to repeat going forward. Let’s revisit this play in a couple of years.

30 июля, 16:03

В Shell заявили, что электромобили не вытеснят с рынка углеводороды

Исполнительный директор фирмы Royal Dutch Shell Бен ван Бёрден в интервью CNBC заявил, что развитие альтернативной энергетики и рост количества электромобилей не смогут вытеснить углеводороды с мирового рынка энергоносителей. Несмотря на развитие технологий на основе ВИЭ, в компании уверены, что рост спроса на «чёрное золото» будет наблюдаться как минимум ещё четыре года.

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28 июля, 19:39

American Airlines CEO Doug Parker: We're fighting like cr...

CNBC's Phil LeBeau speaks with Doug Parker, CEO of American Airlines, on the latest on Qatar Airlines wanting to buy a stake in American Airlines.

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28 июля, 18:09

Goldman Sachs: Oil Market To Rebalance By Early 2018

Recent data show that the rebalancing of the oil market is speeding up and if the drawdown trends are sustained, stockpiles will normalize by early 2018, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday, adding that it was “cautiously optimistic” on oil prices. “While OPEC’s production path remains uncertain, recent fundamental oil data have come in even better than we had expected,” Goldman said in a note, as quoted by CNBC. “If sustained, these trends would help achieve the normalization in inventories by early next year,”…

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28 июля, 15:35

Суд Штутгарта поддержал идею запретить дизельные машины в черте города

Административный суд немецкого города Штутгарт порекомендовал запретить въезд автомобилей, работающих на дизельных двигателях, на территорию большей части центра города для борьбы с загрязнением окружающей среды, сообщает CNBC.

28 июля, 14:53

Доходность трежерис растет перед выходом статистики

Цены на казначейские облигации США снизились в пятницу, доходность бондов выросла. Инвесторы ждут выхода статистики, в том числе данных о динамике ВВП США, сообщает CNBC.

28 июля, 14:53

Доходность трежерис растет перед выходом статистики

Цены на казначейские облигации США снизились в пятницу, доходность бондов выросла. Инвесторы ждут выхода статистики, в том числе данных о динамике ВВП США, сообщает CNBC.

28 июля, 13:58

Economists Lift Forecasts For Today’s US Q2 GDP Report

In a final round of predictions, forecasters raised expectations for today’s preliminary estimate of second quarter GDP growth. The projections still anticipate that output will remain modest, but the 11th-hour predictions suggest that an upside surprise is possible in today’s release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that’s due at 8:30 am Eastern. Most estimates […]

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28 июля, 11:50

Алжир в 2017г увеличит экспорт газа на 5,9%

Алжир увеличит экспорт газа в 2017 году на 5,9% - до 54 млрд куб. м, сообщила арабская служба CNBC со ссылкой на заявление Abdelmoumem Ould Kaddour, исполнительного директора государственной алжирской нефтегазовой корпорации Sonatrach.

28 июля, 08:04

Индия может снизить пошлину на импорт золота

Министерство торговли Индии видит возможности для снижения пошлины на импорт золота, в то время как дефицит счёта текущих операций страны сокращается. Индия на втором месте по потреблению золота в мире...

28 июля, 05:58

Конгресс США просит назначить прокурора по расследованию против Клинтон

Юридический комитет палаты представителей конгресса США направил в Минюст письмо с просьбой назначить специального прокурора для расследования действий Хиллари Клинтон и администрации предыдущего президента США Барака Обамы.

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28 июля, 02:39

Акции Amazon упали после публикации отчетности

Акции американской компании Amazon упали после публикации отчетности за второй квартал 2017 года, согласно которой чистая прибыль компании снизилась на 77%. Об этом сообщает CNBC. В течение нескольких часов после публикации стоимость ...

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28 июля, 02:39

Акции Amazon упали после публикации отчетности

Акции американской компании Amazon упали после публикации отчетности за второй квартал 2017 года, согласно которой чистая прибыль компании снизилась на 77%. Об этом сообщает CNBC. В течение нескольких часов после публикации стоимость ...

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27 июля, 23:03

Amazon shares drop after big earnings miss

CNBC's Deidre Bosa reports on the quarterly earnings report for Amazon.

12 октября 2015, 23:05

ФРС может опустить ставки ниже 0% при новом кризисе

В руководстве Федеральной резервной системы рассматривают возможность использования отрицательных процентных ставок, в случае если американская экономика вновь столкнется с серьезным кризисом.

03 сентября 2015, 17:12

Роберт Шиллер: «справедливая» стоимость S&P 500 составляет 1300 пунктов

«Сейчас очень опасное время», - отметил в интервью CNBC нобелевский лауреат Роберт Шиллер. – «Типичное соотношение P/E (прим. ProFinance.ru: цена акции/доход на акцию), на которое обычно смотрит большинство инвесторов, на самом деле вводит в заблуждение. В то же время соотношение CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings, разработанное господином Шиллером) указывает на «спра… читать далее…