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CNP Assurances
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02 июня, 21:00

Кредитор Barclays завершил продажу своего итальянского страхового подразделения

Британский кредитор Barclays завершил продажу своего итальянского страхового подразделения. Напомним, что покупателем в рамках данной сделки выступилакрупнейшая во Франции компания в сфере страхования жизни CNP Assurances.

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02 июня, 10:23

Кредитор Barclays завершил продажу своего итальянского страхового подразделения

Британский кредитор Barclays завершил продажу своего итальянского страхового подразделения. Напомним, что покупателем в рамках данной сделки выступилакрупнейшая во Франции компания в сфере страхования жизни CNP Assurances.

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01 марта 2015, 20:17

Taking The Monetary Policy Ride Into The Theater Of The Absurd

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners, There are any number of colloquialisms for monetary repression, “reach for yield” and serial asset bubbles being a few. In the vernacular of monetary policy itself, such color is disdained in favor of technocratic banality – “portfolio effects.” The idea is simple, which is to say that by repressing the returns on “safe” investments financial agents will be forced, not of their own volition, into “riskier” assets and asset classes. The prices of those risky assets rise, and that is supposed to contribute to economy-wide good feelings which loosen purse strings, in the equally prosaic terminology of the “wealth effect.” There is, yet again, an unearned sense of precision about the task and the linkages to actual economic function that belies the chaos and mess of a real economic foundation. Removing organic profitability as a mechanism for resource distribution also obliterates constraints on methodical behavior. We may not think of such discipline as useful during periods of economic malaise, where “risk” seems to be lacking, but true discipline leads to the very processes which create sustainable economic advance. The allure of monetary-driven “risk” is an illusion of artificial bursts of at best short-term activity. It seems we have come to a sort of crossroads state whereby past attempts at fostering economic advance through “reach for yield”, portfolio effects, directly interfere with current commanding efforts. Without admitting guilt, central banks and political regulators have combined to “make banks safer” largely through more complex banking regulation conspicuously free of free thought and common sense; especially Basel III. One component, which was “learned” of the Panic of 2008, was that banks “need” a liquidity buffer to withstand “market” funding withdrawal. There are, of course, formulas that determine these. Banks especially in Europe were found wanting of such a buffer and have been “encouraged” to build their own around sovereign debt – which is believed, still, to be the most highly negotiable of all asset classes despite relatively close experience. That last problem was “dealt with” via Mario Draghi and the ECB’s implicit promises to “do whatever it takes.” That apparently includes undertaking QE. The problem of QE is that it removes those same bonds in question from circulation, sequestered securely within the confines of the central bank (regardless of whether that central bank has made provisions for addressing the direct short-comings of just such an effort). The trade-off is one of bonds for “cash”, but more of modern liquidity concepts than cash, that will on balance lead to “portfolio effects.” In one sense, the ECB in particular is saying that banks have become “too safe” and the European economy needs “more risk.” It intends not just to force just such an outcome but also to finance it. Banks, for their part, are not quite ready to “comply”: Weeks before the European Central Bank begins a program to buy about 1 trillion euros ofeuro zone government bonds, banks, pension funds and insurers across the continent are hoarding them for regulatory or accounting reasons. That may complicate implementation of the quantitative easing program, aimed at reviving growth and inflation in the euro zone. The ECB might have to pay way above market prices, or take additional measures to encourage investors to sell. “We prefer to hold on to them,” said Antoine Lissowski, deputy CEO at French insurer CNP Assurances. “The ECB’s policy … is reaching its limits now.” I especially like the phrase “take additional measures to encourage investors to sell”, as you can almost envision some Hollywood Mafioso-type threatening a poor, expensively-suited bank executive not over blood money but on behalf of “monetary” authorities to take their cash. There is an element of comedy here that is un-writable as fiction; nobody could dream just such a scene. In that respect, perhaps monetary depredations have reached their inevitable logical limitations. The banks “must” be made safe because of the last panic, but banks must be made risky because of the economy. Of course, the central bankers under this paradigm don’t think in such broad terms, as they see no incompatibility at all. Again, they think there is some precision or mathematics of regressions that can “find” harmony between two largely and seemingly contrary or even irreconcilable forces – as if banks can be made “just safe enough” while also “just risky enough.” That is because an actual economy does so, where organic profit governs that relationship – why can’t central banks simply do it instead by dual-mandate? This is the reason for the facileness and technocracy of jargon, as this is all supposedly objective mathematics rather than anything emotionally explosive like bubbles. While there are any number of reasons commandment of this kind will fail, it really comes down to the market itself, namely that such forces of “safety” and “risk” are not really homogenous and harmonized unto themselves. It takes all sorts of agents and actions to produce stability from chaos, whereby many people “take the other side.” The relative movement of prices, free from directive interference, acts as ultimate arbiter of what constitutes “risk”; safety results from that. Central banks take no sides at all and simply decree based upon poorly constructed mathematics that are stale by the time they are implemented. And with such opposing policy intentions, is it any wonder how bubbles are formed? Which “side” wins out in the end? The amount of repression taken by monetary authorities will overwhelm any sense of propriety about even mathematically-drawn “prudence.” That is the case in every bubble, but in this one instance, especially in Europe, the tug-of-war is in the very instrument of both policies – government bonds. The ECB is demanding, reduced to constituent cases, that banks buy government bonds for every government bond they sell to the ECB. Banks are rightfully balking as “why bother?” It’s not just the naked convolution to the whole scheme, it is entirely emblematic and demonstrative as to why bank “capital” is so relatively expensive under monetary repression. Since, however, the “risk” side always wins in these things, the ECB mafia will show up with the heaviest repression possible. And yet, somehow, monetary policy is still believed neutral in the long run and that bubbles are market events. Central banks have shown why they cannot command economic performance, but that doesn’t mean they can’t give one hell of a comedic performance. We have taken a monetary ride now into the theater of the absurd.     

23 февраля 2015, 22:33

Beggar Thy Taxpayer: Currency Wars, QE Strain Life Insurers and Pension Plans; Negative Returns With 4-7% Promises

I received an interesting email on Saturday from Bob Hoye at Institutional Advisors regarding "Currency Wars". Bob writes ... Currency wars are very much the talk of the times. This was also the case in the last postbubble contraction when many countries sought to enhance exports through depreciation. And "beggar thy neighbour" policy was a feature of the early 1930s as well. This time around it is an intelligentsia stricken by the fear of deflation, trying to ramp up anything that trades. But commodity markets and producer prices have not been "accommodating" central bankers. Instead there has been rampant inflation in financial assets, which has reached excessive levels of speculation. Clearly, it is a "beggar thy taxpayer" policy.Currency Wars and QE Strain Life Insurance Companies and Taxpayers Bob gets credit for the phrase "beggar thy taxpayer" but I have been thinking along those lines for quite some time. Pension plan assumptions are always on my mind and a Financial Times article earlier this month puts a spotlight on the problem. Please consider Draghi’s QE Strains German life Assurers. In a report published on Wednesday, Moody’s said the “profitability and solvency” of the industry in Germany would come under further strain from the European Central Bank’s bond buying. German life companies, which have estimated liabilities of more than €700bn, sell policies that offer annual guaranteed returns to policyholders, who use the products to save for retirement. Similar products are sold across Europe, but the guarantees have been particularly generous in Germany. The ECB’s plan to buy €60bn worth of bonds each month has further depressed yields, giving the industry greater concerns. The yield on Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond has fallen to 0.35 per cent To help cope with the pressure, insurers have been reducing the returns they pledge to policyholders. The maximum guarantee sanctioned by authorities in Germany is now 1.25 per cent. The industry has also sought to sell more products that have no guarantees — effectively placing the investment risks with policyholders instead of shareholders. However, the insurers still need to meet commitments from policies sold in previous years, for which the guarantees have been as high as 4 per cent. Negative Returns With 4% Promises Insurers have made 4% promises but long-term bonds yield close to zero. Benjamin Serra, senior credit officer at Moody’s said "They are increasingly constrained by the high level of guarantees sold in the past." 2015 will be a “pivotal and challenging year” for Germany’s life assurance industry. Moody's maintained a “negative outlook” for the sector. As of Friday, 10-year German bonds yield 0.39%. Five-year German bonds yield -0.07%. Recall that the ECB pledged on January 22 to buy 60 billion euros ($68 billion) of assets a month for at least 19 months in its inane pledge to avert deflation. Buy from where? Hoarding Bonds Reuters asked an interesting question last Friday: ECB's Draghi wants to buy bonds, but who will sell? Weeks before the European Central Bank begins a program to buy about 1 trillion euros of euro zone government bonds, banks, pension funds and insurers across the continent are hoarding them for regulatory or accounting reasons. "We prefer to hold on to them," said Antoine Lissowski, deputy CEO at French insurer CNP Assurances. "The ECB's policy ... is reaching its limits now." Insurers and pension funds typically buy long-term debt. They could make hefty profits selling to the ECB. But the money would have to be re-invested in other bonds whose yields would be much lower than their long-term commitments to clients -- a regulatory no-no. "If we were to sell bonds, we would make huge capital gains, but we will then have to reinvest that money at a yield of 0.5 percent, set against liabilities at 3.50-3.75 (percent)," said Bart de Smet, the CEO of Belgian insurer Ageas. RBS strategists see a 40 percent chance that ECB purchases would help turn German 10-year Bund yields negative this year.US Yield Curve  US Promises In the US, pension funds have not made 1.25% promises or even 4% promises, but rather 7.0%+ promises with the 10-year bond yielding 2.13%. Annuities promise 6% or so. How you get 6% in a 2% world? The correct answer is: you don't. But insurers and pension plans try, by taking risks. And the more risk they take, and the more margin they use, drives prices higher and higher into bubble territory. Seven Year Negative Returns As of January 31, 2015, Stock and bond prices are so stretched that GMO's 7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecast shows negative real returns for seven years in US equities and bonds.  "The chart represents real return forecasts for several asset classes and not for any GMO fund or strategy. These forecasts are forward‐looking statements based upon the reasonable beliefs of GMO and are not a guarantee of future performance. Forward‐looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and GMO assumes no duty to and does not undertake to update forward‐looking statements. Forward‐looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward‐looking statements. U.S. inflation is assumed to mean revert to long‐term inflation of 2.2% over 15 years." As of December 31, 2014 GMO managed $116 billion in assets. Broken Model In the US, pension plans have aggressively shifted from investing in AAA rated bonds to equities and junk bonds because yields in US treasuries and AAA rated corporates is not high enough. Denial that this has happened is nearly everywhere one looks. Of course the Fed, and most others, cannot and will not see a bubble until it bursts wide open. Even if the air is let out slowly (something that has never happened in practice), negative real returns, and perhaps zero nominal returns for seven years is the only other plausible outcome unless one expects an even bigger bubble coupled with even longer negative returns in the future. I will do a follow-up on this broken model later this week with a look at US pension plans, especially State of Illinois promises that absolutely cannot be met. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.comMike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

21 февраля 2015, 05:54

Why European Bondholders Refuse To Sell To The ECB

Just weeks before Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" trillion-euro Q€ bond-buying-fest is set to come true, The ECB faces a problem they likely never expected - unwilling sellers. On the heels of our analysis showing central banks will monetize over 100% of government bond issuance this year, Reuters reports that mere weeks before the ECB begins their program, banks, pension funds and insurers across the continent are hoarding them for regulatory or accounting reasons. "We prefer to hold on to them," said Antoine Lissowski, deputy CEO at French insurer CNP Assurances. "The ECB's policy ... is reaching its limits now." Yet another unintended consequence of massive monetary manipulation... monetizing >100% of issuance in 2015; the net issuance of government debt in 2015, which will not only be the lowest in history, but - for the first time ever - be negative, explains all one needs to know.  Has, as Reuters reports, left European asset managers forced to hold what they have (and unwilling to sell to the ECB)... At the height of the euro zone debt crisis in 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi's problem was how to convince investors to hold on to European bonds. Now he faces a struggle to make them sell. ... That may complicate implementation of the quantitative easing program, aimed at reviving growth and inflation in the euro zone. The ECB might have to pay way above market prices, or take additional measures to encourage investors to sell. "We prefer to hold on to them," said Antoine Lissowski, deputy CEO at French insurer CNP Assurances. "The ECB's policy ... is reaching its limits now." Banks, which buy mainly short-term bonds, use government debt as a liquidity buffer. Selling would force them to invest in other assets, for which -- unlike government bonds -- regulators ask banks to set cash aside as a precaution. Alternatively, they can deposit money with the ECB, at a discouraging interest rate of minus 0.20 percent. Insurers and pension funds typically buy long-term debt. They could make hefty profits selling to the ECB. But the money would have to be re-invested in other bonds whose yields would be much lower than their long-term commitments to clients -- a regulatory no-no. ... "If we were to sell bonds, we would make huge capital gains, but we will then have to reinvest that money at a yield of 0.5 percent, set against liabilities at 3.50-3.75 (percent)," said Bart de Smet, the CEO of Belgian insurer Ageas. Dutch banks ING and Rabobank, Spain's Bankinter and rescued lender Bankia and France's BNP Paribas said they were unlikely to sell when the ECB comes knocking. "The volume of sovereign bonds we own at the moment is not linked to monetary policy," BNP Paribas deputy CEO Philippe Bordenave said. "It's linked to the regulation." ... But everything has a price. RBS strategists see a 40 percent chance that ECB purchases would help turn German 10-year Bund yields negative this year. "There's a lack of bonds to meet current demand globally, so it's going to be difficult to see a lot of sellers," said Patrick O'Donnell, portfolio manager at Aberdeen Asset Management, who does not plan to sell. "The risk is that if the ECB is serious about buying at the rate of 60 billion a month, the price impact could be quite material." *  *  * Perhaps most ironically, if Greece were to leave the euro, selling pressure might increase, which would thus enable The ECB to print moar, monetize moar, and buy moar bonds...      

26 июля 2013, 10:16

Утренний брифинг Saxo Bank: обзор рынков на 26 июля 2013 года

Обзор Форекс: Доллар США торгуется смешанно Этим утром доллар США торгуется разнонаправленно относительно большинства главных валют. Учитывая ненасыщенность глобального экономическго календаря данными, внимание рынков сосредоточено на публикации данных по индексу настроения потребителей от Reuters/University of Michigan, которые согласно ожиданиям скажут о незначительном улучшении в июле. Так, в 5 часов утра по GMT евро и британский фунт несколько опустились против американского доллара, торгуясь по цене 1,3277 доллара и 1,5388 доллара соответственно. Японская иена выросла на 0,6 процента и 0,4 процента по отношению к евро и доллару США соответственно, после того, как итоги за июнь, опубликованные сегодня, показали рост потребительских цен в Японии превысил ожидания аналитиков. Австралийский доллар пошёл вверх на 0,2 процента относительно американского доллара, в то время как канадский доллар незначительно прибавил против доллара США.Европа: Рынок откроется в «плюсе» Открытие германского фондового индекса DAX и французского CAC ожидается на 48-54 пунктa и 24-28 пунктов выше соответственно. Индекс Британской фондовой биржи FTSE100 откроется повышением на 25-26 пунктов. Публикация данных по индексу цен на импорт в Германии; индексу уверенности потребителей во Франции и индексу цен на жильё от Национальной строительной ассоциации Nationwide в Великобритании запланирована на сегодня. Total SA (FP), Safran SA (SAF), Renault SA (RNO), Lafarge SA (LG), Caixabank SA (CABK), CNP Assurances (CNP), Rexel SA (RXL), Banco Popular Espanol SA (POP), Banca Generali SpA (BGN), Air France KLM SA (AF), BG Group (BG/), Anglo American (AAL), British Sky Broadcasting Group (BSY), Pearson (PSON) и Spectris (SXS) объявят о своих результатах сегодня. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA (MC) обнародовала более низкие, чем ожидалось, данные по прибыли за первое полугодие. Федеральный регулятивный орган США проинформировал, что UBS AG (UBSN) согласилась выплатить 885,0 миллионов американских долларов по иску касательно ипотечных облигаций, которые банк продал компаниям Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac во время «пузыря» на рынке недвижимости. Фонд прямого инвестирования Pamplona Capital Management LLP (Лондон) сообщил о передаче 4,01 процента доли в компании UniCredit SpA (UCG) немецкому Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) в обмен на финансирование. Компания Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1) сообщила о снижении прогноза дохода и прибыли на второй квартал. BHP Billiton (BLT) и Rio Tinto (RIO) сообщили о планах инвестировать около 3,0 миллиардов американских долларов в строительство новой опреснительной установки на чилийской медной шахте Escondida. Соруководитель фармацевтического бизнеса в Европе GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Херв Гиссерот (Herve Gisserot) был назначен компанией возглавлять данное направление в Китае. Базирующаяся в США компания Activision Blizzard (AIY) заявила о возможной обратной покупке около 429 миллионов акций и получила налоговые льготы у Vivendi SA (VIV) за денежное вознаграждение, равное 5,8 миллиардам американских долларов.Азия: На рынке разнородная динамика Этим утром азиатские рынки торгуются смешанно. В Японии акции Nissan Motor (7201) упали несмотря на более высокие, чем ожидалось, данные по чистой прибыли за первый квартал. Suzuki Motor (7269) потеряли в цене несмотря на то, что филиал Maruti Suzuki в Индии сообщил о резком увеличении прибыли за первый квартал. Advantest (6857) снизились в силу публикации отчёта о сокращении операционной прибыли за первый квартал. Mitsubishi Motors (8306) торгуются на отрицательной территории на фоне сообщений об отзыве компанией около 650000 машин в Японии, ссылаясь на пожарную опасность. В 5 часов утра по GMT индекс Токийской фондовой биржи Nikkei 225 торгуется на 2,3 процента ниже на отметке 14223,7 пункта. В Гонгконге акции Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196) выросли ввиду прогноза о значительном повышении чистой прибыли за первое полугодие. AIA Group (1299) отступили несмотря на рост прибыли, превысивший ожидания экспертов за первое полугодие. В Китае BOE Technology (000725) продолжили своё снижение после того как компания сообщила о своих планах привлечь около 46,0 миллиардов китайских юаней посредством частного размещения. Anhui Conch Cement (600585) прибавили в цене вслед за позитивной оценкой брокера. В Южной Корее Korean Air Lines (003490) и Hana Tour Service (039130) торгуются с повышением. Samsung Electronics (005930) подешевели из-за мрачных показателнй по прибыли за второй квартал, а также снижения прогноза средней цены на продажу смартфонов в третьем квартале.Фондовые рынки США: Фьючерсы торгуются выше В 5 часов утра по GMT фьючерсы на S&P 500 торгуются на 4,7 пункта выше. Публикация данных по индексу настроения потребителей от Reuters/University of Michigan планируется на сегодня. AbbVie (ABBV), LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB), Aon Plc (AON), Ventas (VTR), Tyco International (TYC), Weyerhaeuser (WY) и Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) объявят о своих результатах сегодня. В четверг в рамках продлённой торговой сессии Amazon.com (AMZN) потеряли 2,3 процента вследствие неожиданного крупного убытка за второй квартал и осторожного прогноза на третий квартал. Неудовлетворительные результаты второго квартала привели Expedia (EXPE) к падению на 24,1 процента. Zynga (ZNGA) опустились на 14,6 процента в силу прогноза компании более высокого, чем ожидалось, скорректированного убытка на третий квартал. Gilead Sciences (GILD), напротив, подскочили на 5,1 процента ввиду благоприятных итогов по доходу за второй квартал. Оптимистичные показатели третьего квартала и увеличение прогноза прибыли на полный год обеспечили акциям Starbucks (SBUX) рост на 5,8 процента. Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) выросли на 4,0 процента вслед за данными по второму кварталу, превысившими консенсус рынка. Американский фондовый индекс S&P 500 во время вчерашней регулярной торговой сессии прибавил 0,3 процента. Boston Scientific (BSX) и Visa (V) пошли вверх на 12,7 процента и 4,2 процента соответственно благодаря квартальным результатам, опередившим ожидания рынка и увеличению годового прогноза дохода и прибыли. ONEOK (OKE) «взлетели» на 25,5 процента в связи с планами компании отделить её бизнес по производству и распределению природного газа в отдельную публично торгуемую компанию. Позитивные итоги второго квартала послужили росту ценных бумаг TripAdvisor (TRIP) и E*TRADE Financial (ETFC) на 16,3 процента и 7,9 процента соответственно. PulteGroup (PHM) упали на 10,3 процента из-за пессимистичных показателей второго квартала. D.R. Horton (DHI) сократились на 8,6 процента после обнародования более низкого, чем ожидалось, прогноза дохода и прибыли на второй квартал.Сводка последних новостейВ Японии наблюдается рост потребительских цен На годовой основе индекс потребительских цен в Японии вырос в июне на 0,2 процента, опередив прогнозы экспертов, тогда как в мае было отмечено снижение на 0,3 процента.Ухудшение настроения в деловых кругах Китая Индекс настроения в деловых кругах от международного финансового информационного агентства MNI в Китае снизился в июле до отметки 51,3 пункта относительно значения в 53,7 пункта, зафиксированного в июне.Потребительское настроение в Южной Корее остаётся без измененийИндекс уверенности потребителей в Южной Корее остался в июле на прежнем уровне, составив 105,0 пунктов, аналогичная картина наблюдалась и месяцем ранее. Материал предоставлен Saxo Bank http://ru.saxobank.com

16 ноября 2012, 14:28

Проблемы с банками увели евро в "минус"

С открытием торгов в Европе в пятницу евро сдает свои позиции. Новостей в Старом Свете немного, но участники продолжают переживать за состояние зоны евро. Несмотря на усилие ЕЦБ, проблемы с банками в еврозоне продолжаются. Лакмусом происходящих процессов выступает Dexia. В настоящий момент в свободном обращении находится около 1,95 млрд акций Dexia, государствам Бельгии и Франции принадлежат по 5,7% акций банка. Французский государственный банк Caisse des Depots et Consignations (CDC) является крупнейшим акционером Dexia с долей 17,6%, еще одним акционером компании является страховая CNP Assurances (подразделение CDC), которой принадлежит 3% акций Dexia.