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10 августа, 02:20

Streaming Killed The Cable Bundle: Record 941,000 Pay-TV Customers Ditch Cable In Q2

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Back in the ancient days, long before Al Gore had even invented the internet, the Buggles declared once and for all that "Video Killed the Radio Star."  Now it seems that a remake of that classic MTV hit is in order as, with each passing quarter, it's becoming increasingly clear that streaming has officially killed the cable bundle.   We've long held the opinion that the content creation and media distribution businesses are on the precipice of a major transformation.  Since the birth of cable TV, content creators (think Disney, Discovery, Scripps, AMC, etc.) have been locked in a perpetual tug-of-war with distribution companies (Comcast, Charter, Verizon, AT&T, etc.).  Up until now, content creators have been the clear winners as they've continued to force cable companies to carry their growing lineup of channels, many of which are awful, by effectively holding their good content hostage until distributors agree to pay for channels that they (and their customers) likely don't want.  As an example, a company like Scripps may refuse to sign a distribution agreement with Charter for HGTV or the Food Network, unless they also agree to pay for their less popular channels like TVN, Fine Living or the Asian Food Channel. All of which is precisely why cable customers have ended up paying for 1,000 channels when they really only watch about 5 of them. But, that is all changing with the onset of direct-to-customer streaming.  HBO was the first to blink, then came ShowTime and now Disney has just announced that ESPN will also go direct.  What this means, of course, is that increasingly people will be able to make a la carte purchases of the media they actually value and ditch all the 'crap' that clever content creators have forced down our throats for years by holding their desired content hostage.  In summary, streaming killed the cable bundle. All of which is precisely why, as Fast Company and MoffettNathanson report, pay-TV customers are ditching cable bundles in record numbers with nearly 1 million customers throwing in the towel in Q2 2017 alone. The country’s top cable and satellite TV providers just wrapped up another quarter of record subscriber declines as customers flee traditional pay-television distributors in favor of streaming and on-demand services, according to a research note from MoffettNathanson. Combined declines for the second quarter of 2017 came close to a million subscribers, the firm estimates, with Dish Network, DirectTV, and AT&T hit especially hard. As bad as it was, the customer exodus was not as bad as some analysts had predicted, prompting analyst Craig Moffett to ask the question, “Is ‘not as worse’ even a thing?”   “[Y]es, things are getting worse,” Moffett wrote. “But at least in Q2 they got worse more slowly. Less worse. Or, not as worse. Or, well, you get the idea.”   If all this sounds familiar, it’s because three months ago, the industry had just logged its worst quarter in history, losing an estimated 762,000 pay-TV subscribers. This time around, that number has jumped to 941,000 subscribers. Even Comcast, which had been bucking the trend over the last few quarters, ended Q2 with a net loss of 34,000 pay-TV customers.   Of course, if you're going to stream all of your media content online then you need a good internet connection which is at least partially why the satellite and DSL providers (Dish, DTV, AT&T) are bleeding customers way faster than the cable companies that deliver much faster internet speeds.   Perhaps it's time for a remake?

09 августа, 13:59

Risk Off: Global Stocks Slide As "Fire And Fury" Results In "Selling And Fear"

US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday's sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained 1.2 percent to 1.1320 per euro its biggest daily advance since February 2015, while the yen surged as much as 0.8% against per euro, its strongest level in three weeks while gold rose. "Trump's comments about North Korea have created nervousness and the fear is if the President really means what he said: "fire and fury"," said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets in London. "The typical text book trade is that investors rush for safe havens." Gold was headed for it’s largest gain this month while the yen and Swiss franc were the biggest advancers among G-10 currencies after President Donald Trump ratcheted up his rhetoric against North Korea. Treasuries and most European government bonds climbed amid the shift to safer assets, while almost every sector of the Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell and emerging markets equities were poised for the biggest drop since June 15. The rand extended losses after South Africa’s president survived a no-confidence vote. Earlier on Tuesday, volatility from the U.S. to Japan rose after Trump said in response to a Washington Post report on North Korea’s nuclear capabilities that further threats from the country would be met with “fire and fury.” North Korea said it’s examining an operational plan for firing a ballistic missile toward Guam. The VIX jumped above the 200-DMA as equity markets continuously push lower. The financial sector lagged, while defensive healthcare sector outperforms; gold and crude were supported in tandem. The heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea dampened global risk sentiment, which snapped the DJIA's streak of record closes and saw nearly all Asia-Pac bourses in negative territory. This was after US President Trump warned North Korea the US would respond to any threats with an unprecedented level of "fire and fury", which spurred a response from North Korea that it was considering striking Guam with mid-to long-range missiles. “Trump in his reactions is something new for all of us,” Geraldine Sundstrom, portfolio manager at Pimco Europe, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “Given the nature of the threats, given the players are new, it makes the situation a little bit unusual,” said Sundstrom, who recommended safe haven trades and minimizing risks through duration.  As a result, global assets have slumped in a "classic, risk-off reaction" as Bloomberg puts it. The MSCI EM Asia Index of shares slid the most in a month. “We’re seeing a bit of risk aversion due to concerns over North Korea,” said Dushyant Padmanabhan, a currency strategist at Nomura in Singapore. “Besides the geopolitics, the market will also be focused on the Friday’s U.S. CPI print and what clues that might give us on the path for inflation.” The Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) underperformed as exporters suffered from the flows into JPY. The Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index soared as much as 38%, most since August 2015, with the VNKY Index closing +24% at 16.00. The Korean KOSPI (-1.1%) was also, so to say, "weighed down" by the increased threat of nuclear war. In retrospect, that the South Korean market dipped just over 1% on the prospect of a mushroom cloud, is rather impressive. Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.2%) were subdued following a miss on Chinese CPI and PPI data, while ASX 200 (+0.4%) bucked the trend amid gains in the metals-related stocks and with the largest-weighted financials sector buoyed after big-4 bank CBA reported an 8th consecutive year of record profits. Demand for 10yr JGBs was spurred by a flight to quality and with the BoJ in the market for JPY 770b1n of JGBs. The curve also slightly flattened amid outperformance in the long-end. Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.6 percent as of 9:54 a.m. in London, the largest drop in more than a week on a closing basis. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index declined 0.6 percent, the first retreat in a week. Germany’s DAX Index sank 1.2 percent in the biggest tumble in almost three weeks. Futures on the S&P 500 Index sank 0.4 percent, the largest decrease in almost five weeks. The MSCI Emerging Market Index sank 0.9 percent, the biggest dip in almost eight weeks. "Heightened geopolitical risks overnight have seen the markets flip from risk-on to risk-off and we have to wait and see how long this move runs before adding some positions," said Viraj Patel, an FX strategist at ING in London. In overnight FX trading, risk aversion dominated trading as the Swiss franc and the yen led gains among Group-of-10 currencies, while the dollar index steadied as EM currencies halted a three-day rally. The yen appreciated as much as 0.8 percent to 128.61 per euro, its strongest level in three weeks. During previous occasions of political turmoil between the U.S. and North Korea, the Japanese currency over performed, yet the Swiss franc’s sharp decline in the past two weeks made for stretched positioning versus the euro, resulting in a bigger gain. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar both weakened.  South Korea’s won fell to a three-week low amid heightened geopolitical tensions over North Korea. CNH and CNY both rally through 6.70/USD, highest since October 2016 after another stronger PBOC fixing. Core fixed income gains sharply, curves bull flatten with heavy volume noted in USTs. VIX jumps above 200-DMA as equity markets continuously push lower. Financial sector lags, while defensive healthcare sector outperforms; gold and crude supported in tandem. Some remain skeptically optimistic: at the moment the tensions increasing around North Korea’s nuclear weapons program does remain an “exchange of rhetoric,” and under normal expectations it’s difficult to think that any “real action” will be taken from here, says Takuya Yamada, a senior money manager in Tokyo. •If something actually happens, it won’t be surprising to see the market fall 5%, 10% in no time at all. However investors are aware of the fact that if North Korea takes action it will mean self- destruction, so their premise is that this is merely “trash talking.” "We've had some competing forces play out over the past 12 hours - the U.S. dollar was stronger off economic data, but that was quickly reversed with President Trump's comments about North Korea earlier today (Wednesday)," said ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries decreased two basis points to 2.24 percent. Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 0.44 percent, the lowest in six weeks. Britain’s 10-year yield fell four basis points to 1.117 percent, the lowest in six weeks. France’s 10-year yield dipped three basis points to 0.73 percent. In commodities, gold gained 0.6 percent to $1,267.99 an ounce, heading for the biggest one-day increase since July 28. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.4 percent to $49.36 a barrel. Looking at the day ahead, there is the preliminary 2Q nonfarm productivity (0.7% expected) and unit labour costs (1% expected) data, final June wholesale inventories (0.6% expected) as well as the MBA mortgage applications. In Asia, Japan’s PPI for July will also be out on early Thursday morning. Notable US companies reporting today include Twenty First century Fox. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,463 MSCI Asia down 0.4% to 160.58 MSCI Asia ex-Japan down 0.6% to 528.93 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 379.60 Nikkei down 1.3% to 19,738.71 Topix down 1.1% to 1,617.90 Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 27,757.09 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,275.57 Sensex down 0.5% to 31,859.44 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,765.66 Kospi down 1.1% to 2,368.39 German 10Y yield fell 3.7 bps to 0.437% Euro down 0.2% to 1.1730 per US$ Brent Futures up 0.02% to $52.15/bbl US 10Y yield fell 2 bps to 2.24% Italian 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 1.714% Spanish 10Y yield fell 4.3 bps to 1.411% Brent Futures up 0.02% to $52.15/bbl Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,268.77 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.03% to 93.62 Top Overnight News President Donald Trump’s threat to hit North Korea with “fire and fury” jolted markets from New York to Seoul even as U.S. lawmakers questioned the president’s willingness to back up the heated rhetoric N. Korea can strike before any U.S. pre-emptive attack; considering firing ballistic missiles “at areas around Guam” where U.S. strategic bombers are stationed: KCNA Trump’s presidential campaign, his son Donald Trump Jr. and former campaign manager Paul Manafort have started turning over documents to the Senate Judiciary Committee as part of the panel’s expanded investigation of Russian election- meddling South African President Jacob Zuma narrowly overcame a bid by opposition parties to topple him through a no-confidence motion in parliament. The real loser may be his own party, the African National Congress Morgan Stanley beat Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to become the most profitable foreign securities firm in Japan last fiscal year after it boosted structured-product sales and managed the two biggest initial public offerings BOE Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions: some manufacturers reported that initial pass-through of weaker sterling near completion Italian June Industrial Production m/m: +1.1% vs +0.2% est. China July CPI y/y: 1.4% vs 1.5% est; PPI 5.5% vs 5.6% est. API inventories according to people familiar w/ data: Crude -7.8m; Cushing +0.3m; Gasoline +1.5m; Distillates -0.2m Disney’s Iger Sees a Future Without Netflix, Comcast or DirecTV Goldman Sells U.K. Insurer Stake to GIC, Blackstone, MassMutual Canada Mulls Nicotine Cut as New Front Opens Against Smoking British American Tobacco Is Said to Extend Debt Binge in Europe New iPhone Models Are Said to Enter Mass Production: DigiTimes U.S. FDA Is Said to Issue Form 483 to Baxter Ahmedabad Site: CNBC Fox Is Said to Have Declined to Settle Suits for $60M: NYT Novo Sees Price of Insulin in U.S Dropping Again Next Year Ford Repairs Over 50 Police Units on Carbon Monoxide Concerns In Asia, increased geopolitical tensions after a war of words between US and North Korea dampened global risk sentiment, which ensured the DJIA snapped a 9-day streak of record closes and saw nearly all Asia-Pac bourses in negative territory. This was after US President Trump warned North Korea the US would respond to any threats with an unprecedented level of fire and fury, which spurred a response from North Korea that it was considering striking Guam with mid-to long-range missiles. Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) underperformed as exporters suffered from the flows into JPY, while KOSPI (-1.1%) was also weighed on by the increased threat of nuclear war. Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.2%) were subdued following a miss on Chinese CPI and PPI data, while ASX 200 (+0.4%) bucked the trend amid gains in the metals-related stocks and with the largest-weighted financials sector buoyed after big-4 bank CBA reported an 8th consecutive year of record profits. Demand for 10yr JGBs was spurred by a flight to quality and with the BoJ in the market for JPY 770b1n of JGBs. The curve also slightly flattened amid outperformance in the long-end. RBA Assistant Governor Kent states that fixed-income funding is available at favourable rates and that banks' use of wholesale debt is much lower than a few years ago. Further stating that AUD appreciation is more of a story regarding USD depreciation, adds further strength in AUD would result to slightly weaker domestic growth. South Korea Finance Minister sees limited risk impact on markets from North Korea. Chinese CPI (Jul) M/M 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prey. - 0.2%) Chinese PPI (Jul) Y/Y 5.5% vs. Exp. 5.6% (Prey. 5.5%) Chinese CPI (Jul) Y/Y 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prey. 1.5%) Top Asian News Morgan Stanley Tops Goldman Sachs With Biggest Profit in Japan S. Korea Official Says Tension High, But Not A Crisis: Yonhap Markets on Edge in Seoul as Trump Escalates North Korea Warnings China Remains Inflation Backstop as Mills and Smelters Close India Is Said to Tweak HPCL Share Sale Terms to Skip Open Offer Gold Imports by India Are Said to Have More Than Doubled in July Wharf Soars to Highest Since ’86 on $29 Billion Spinoff Plan Abu Dhabi’s FAB Is Said to Appoint Pant International FIG Head In European bourses, the selling persisted across virtually all markets with Trump's comments in North American trade has been the catalyst for the selling pressure seen in Global equities. US President Trump warned North Korea that a US response to any threats would be 'fire and fury the likes of which the world has never seen'. Comments followed from North Korea, with the state media stating that the US war hysteria will bring a miserable end, and also warns of operation on signs of US provocation, further saying that they are seriously mulling striking Guam. Adding to the downbeat was rather subdued inflation figures out of China. EGB yields falling to the lows amid the aforementioned escalating tensions between the US and North Korea. Peripheral bonds wider by around lbps against the German benchmark. Elsewhere, BATs have begun marketing form their multi-currency (GBP, EUR) 5 tranche after yesterday's chunky USD-denominated 8 part. Technically uncovered German Bobl auction. Top European News Brexit Will Strain BOE’s Supervisory Resources, PRA’s Woods Says Italy Industrial Production Jumps, Pointing to Faster Recovery ABN Amro Bolsters Capital as Dutch Growth Drives Profit Rise Carl Zeiss Meditec Slides as Valeant Shuts Door on Target Assets Ahold Delhaize Boosts Synergy Goal as Competition Concerns Grow Russia Readies $4 Billion Eurobond Swap in Face of Sanctions EON Plots Growth Strategy as Profit Rebounds, Debt Falls Santander Sells Control of Popular Real Estate to Blackstone In currencies, the initial mover following the exchange from the USA and North Korea was USD/JPY, breaking through August's low, however finding some bids just below this 109.80 level. USD/CHF saw similar price action, attempting to test August's low around 0.9650. Traffic was clear at these levels, becoming key support in the pair, with bids clearly stacked around 0.9650. Sterling saw some early bullish pressure this morning, as cable broke 1.30 to the upside, with GBP/USD struggling to find any real direction as Brexit concerns continue. EUR/GBP saw some selling, however, failed to attempt to test 0.90 as bids are evident ahead of this key psychological level. The geopolitical uncertainties between Australia and China did cause some suffering of AUD, as AUD/NZD fell from 1.08, further weight was put on the currency with Central bank commentary from the RBA, as Kent said AUD appreciation is more of a story regarding USD depreciation, adds further strength in AUD would result to slightly weaker domestic growth. In commodities, safe haven flow supporting precious metals with Gold prices up a modest 0.6%, while crude prices have recoup from yesterday's lows following last night's large drawdown in the API report. Saudi and Iraqi oil ministers are to hold a joint press conference on Thursday in an attempt to stabilise oil markets. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.8% 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, est. 0.7%, prior 0.0%; Unit Labor Costs, est. 1.1%, prior 2.2% 10am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.0%, prior -0.5%;  Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A bit more going on in the last 12 hours with Trump inflaming already elevated tensions between the US and North Korea late in yesterday's session and this morning we have seen Chinese inflation numbers. If that’s not enough today is a special financial crisis anniversary. More on that later but first to China. China’s July PPI was up 5.5% yoy, but a tad softer than expectations of 5.6% (5.5% previous), the National Bureau of statistics noted mom producer price growth turned positive on the back of steel and non-ferrous metal price rebounds, with ~50% of the industrial sectors seeing price gains in July. CPI was up 1.4% yoy in July (vs. 1.5% expected; 1.5% previous) with food costs decline partly offsetting gains in other consumer goods. Focus remains on the extent of economic growth in 2H, as China’s policy makers had previously indicated a preference for slower growth This morning in Asia, markets are sharply lower on the back of the North Korea story rather than the above inflation numbers. The Nikkei is -1.2%, the Kospi down -0.8%, the Hang Seng -0.8% with Chinese bourses ranging from -0.2% to +0.1%. The Korean won has also dipped 0.5% against the USD. This follows another soporific session yesterday, albeit one that awoke from its slumber in the last hour of trading following defiant comments from Mr Trump concerning North Korea. As per Bloomberg, he said the country would be "met with fire and fury and, frankly, power the likes of which the world has never seen before" if it continues to threaten the US. The VIX spiked from 9.54 just after Europe went home and around 10 when the comments were reported to a peak of 11.29 with 30mins left in the session before closing at 10.96. However even with the late shake-up the S&P 500 only lost around 0.4% after the news and (closed -0.24%) extending the record closing run of sub 0.3% moves in either direction to 14 days. Remember this record covers 90 years of daily data with the previous record being 10 days without a bigger move. Trading volumes in the S&P were again very thin, with the daily value traded at 0.15% of the index market cap, which is ~45% of the historical average. Elsewhere, the Dow dipped 0.2%, with Trump’s comments helping to break a run of 8 consecutive days of fresh all-time highs. Staying with Trump, an earlier article by the Washington post suggested North Korea’s nuclear capabilities may be more advanced than prior expectations. According to US intelligence reports the state: i) can now produce small nuclear warheads that fit inside its missiles, ii) is outpacing expectations in building missiles that are capable of striking the US mainland, and that iii) the state may have up to 60 nuke warheads, this compares to ~7,000 each in US / Russia, 260 in China and 215 in the UK. These reports coupled with increased rhetoric from Pyongyang and a flat refusal to negotiate on their nuclear program may have added to Trump’s fury. Senator McCain said Trump needs to be more cautious in his statements because he may not be able to make good on the implied threats. For now, we watch and wait. Before we review the rest of the last 24 hours, from the prospective of a research analyst that has to write something about financial markets every day, 2017 and 2018 are a great source of ongoing material given the regular 10 year financial crisis anniversaries that we'll see. Today is one of those such days as we mark a decade to the day that money markets started to seize up thus requiring heavily coordinated central bank action that marked an extraordinary period of central bank activity that is still in full flow today. The announcement by BNP Paribas that they were closing three funds linked to US mortgages was the catalyst for a complete lack of trust in money markets over the coming days and weeks. Just over a month later we had the bank run on Northern Rock. As an example of the impact BNP's announcement had, 3 month dollar Libor hadn't moved all year but over the course of two days spiked 20bps. Not a great deal but on this day 10 years ago all the major central banks were forced to inject liquidity with the ECB doing so for the first time since 9/11. One of the great ironies of the period since is that returns in major global assets have been very healthy albeit with some major exceptions. Of the 38 major global assets we usually track for this purpose 27 are higher and 11 lower in dollar adjusted terms. Top of the pack is the S&P 500 (+106%) followed by US HY (+95%) and Gold (87%). Other DM fixed income markets are generally in the 35%-80% range. The Dax (+38%) leads the way in an underperforming European equity story. The Stoxx 600 is up 22% and the FTSE 100 only 12% higher in Dollar terms largely due to a 36% fall in Sterling over the period. Of the 11 assets  that has seen negative dollar returns over the last 10 years the highlights are Greek equities (-82%), Stoxx Euro Banks (-54%), Portuguese equities (-42%), the CRB commodity index (-42%), Italian equities (-33%), and Oil (-32%). EM equities were up 29% but Chinese (-2%), Brazilian (-26%) and Russian (-32%) bourses were selective under-performers. So the huge intervention and general asset price inflation over the last decade hasn't been universally seen across the board. There have been clear winners and losers. Were you the one who during late afternoon on August 8th 2007 decided to switch out of their portfolio of Greek equities to buy the S&P 500 and then go on a 10 year sabbatical? If you were then I have nothing but respect, admiration and jealousy towards you. If you did the reverse trade then I suspect you might not be reading this now but you have my sympathies!! Back to the market’s performance, US bourses all softened ~0.2% overnight. Within the S&P, only the utilities sector was up (+0.3%), while the materials (-0.9%) and Telco sector dipped the most. After the bell, Disney traded ~4% down post its result on softer revenue trends and has said it will stop selling movies to Netflix. Back in Europe, markets broadly strengthened. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.2%, aided by the softer Euro and advances in the utilities sector (+0.6%). Regional indices were also slightly up, with the DAX (+0.3%), FTSE 100 (+0.1%), CAC (+0.2%) and FTSE MIB (+0.1%). Over in government bonds, yields were modestly higher across maturities, with the bunds (2Y: +2bp; 10Y: +2bps), Gilts (2Y: +2bp; 10Y: +2bps) and OATs (2Y: +2bps; 10Y: +2bps) all up ~2bp at the long end of the curve, while Italian BTPs (2Y: unch; 10Y: +1bp) ticked up a bit less. The UST 10Y has dipped overnight (2Y: -1bp; 10Y: -1bp) after yields rose 2-3bps yesterday. PPI/CPI data tomorrow and Friday will be key though for global yields. Currencies were little changed, the US dollar index gained 0.2%, while the Euro/ USD fell 0.4% and the sterling dipped 0.3%. Elsewhere, the Euro/Sterling was broadly flat. In commodities, WTI oil retreated 0.4%, with the EIA increasing its US output forecasts and OPEC noting they had fruitful talks and agreement on compliance (but likely shy of tangible takeaways the market may be hoping for). Elsewhere, precious metals were slightly up (Gold +0.5%; Silver 0.7%) and aluminium increased 5% following reports of China increasing efforts to curtail illegal or polluting capacity. Agricultural commodities were fairly mixed but little changed, with cotton (+0.8%), coffee (+0.5%), soybeans (flat), corn (-0.1%), wheat (-0.2%), and sugar (-0.6%). Away from the markets, Republicans are discussing some kind of compromise to get the tax reforms through, potentially involving a hybrid approach that include permanent tax revisions with temporary cuts for individuals and business. House Speaker Ryan is said to be more resistant to the idea, preferring for corporate tax rate cuts to be permanent. Back in April, the plan was for corporate tax rate to be cut from 35% to 15% and individual tax rates to be reduced from 7 bands to 3, with the top rate down from 39.6% to 35%. Elsewhere, the US treasury's $24bn three-year note sale drew a yield of 1.52%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.13, the highest since December 2015. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the JOLTS survey reported a record 6.163m job openings in June (vs. 5.75m expected), which should partly support the state of US labour demand. Elsewhere, the July NFIB small business optimism index was higher than expectations at 105.2 (vs. 103.5 expected), the best reading since February. In Europe, June trade reports in both German and France were a bit weaker than market expectations. Germany’s June export posted a -2.8% mom (vs. 0.2% expected) and imports at -4.5% (vs. 0.2% expected). However, despite these declines, exports were still solid on an annual basis, up 5.7% yoy and imports up 6.9% yoy. French’s trade deficit also widened in June, as a 2.8% mom decline in exports dominated a 2.0% mom decline in imports.  Elsewhere, Spain’s home sales rose 19.0% yoy in June. Looking at the day ahead, Bank of France’s July business sentiment indicator (103 expected) will be out early in the morning, followed by Italy’s June industrial production data (0.2% mom and 3.4% yoy expected). Over in the US, there is the preliminary 2Q nonfarm productivity (0.7% expected) and unit labour costs (1% expected) data, final June wholesale inventories (0.6% expected) as well as the MBA mortgage applications. In Asia, Japan’s PPI for July will also be out on early Thursday morning. Notable US companies reporting today include Twenty First century Fox.

08 августа, 14:46

Frontrunning: August 8

Tax Overhaul Effort Shaped by Debate Over Corporations (WSJ) Funds target 'unknown' stocks as Wall Street cuts analyst jobs (Reuters) GOP Plans Tax Compromise to Sidestep Democrats (BBG) Few expect Trump's 15-percent corporate tax rate: Deloitte survey (Reuters) Raid on Venezuelan Base Got Help From Active Officers (WSJ) Hackers demand million in ransom for stolen HBO data (AP) OPEC holds second day of compliance talks, to issue statement (Reuters) Time Inc misses revenue estimates as advertising sales slip (Reuters) Uber Chairman Says Travis Kalanick Won’t Return as CEO (WSJ) China says willing to pay the price for new North Korea sanctions (Reuters) Jacob Zuma’s Fate Hangs in Secret Parliament Vote (BBG) Vanguard breaks ranks to pay for analyst research (FT) ‘Gig Economy’ Companies Working Harder to Attract Employees (WSJ) Amid Trump’s Immigration Crackdown, More Mexicans Get Visas to Work in U.S. (WSJ) Tillerson in Thailand presses for more action on North Korea (Reuters) Brexit Is Quietly Strangling Science (BBG) China ride-hailing firm DiDi backs Uber rival Careem (Reuters) China's Trade Surplus Widens for Fifth Month as Imports Moderate (BBG) Mazda announces breakthrough in long-coveted engine technology (Reuters) Envision to sell ambulance business to KKR in $2.4 billion deal (Reuters) Nissan to sell its electric battery business to GSR Capital (Reuters) Overnight Media Digest WSJ - Tesla Inc said it plans to raise $1.5 billion in its first-ever sale of traditional bonds. The company said the funds would help push broader sales of its lower-price Model 3 sedan. on.wsj.com/2vgv3gd - Alphabet Inc's Google fired the employee who wrote an internal memo suggesting men are better suited for tech jobs than women, following an email from Google's chief executive, Sundar Pichai to the company's employees, saying that the memo writer violated company policy. on.wsj.com/2vgWpmu - Uber Technologies Inc won't be bringing co-founder Travis Kalanick back as chief executive, the company's chairman Garrett Camp told employees, in an attempt to quell reports the co-founder was attempting a comeback. on.wsj.com/2vgCKmI - United Technologies Corp made an initial offer of less than $140 a share to acquire Rockwell Collins Inc, but the two aerospace suppliers are still wrangling over the price of a takeover that would exceed $20 billion. on.wsj.com/2vgkytp - Pershing Square Capital Management LP (IPO-PERS.L) said it was nominating its founder William Ackman and two others to the board of Automatic Data Processing Inc, backing off from its previous demand of five seats on the 10-person board. on.wsj.com/2vgr7vR   FT Rising food costs helped British retail sales in July, with consumers cutting back on non-food spending as confidence in the economic outlook waned, according to the British Retail Consortium. The UK government is considering proposals that would fine operators of essential UK services that succumb to cyber attacks 17 million pounds ($22.16 million) if they have poor security. Members of the European Parliament are preparing to bolster EU plans to police London's euro clearing business after Brexit, raising the risk that Britain might lose the lucrative activity. Hedge fund Pershing Square proposed three nominees, including its Chief Executive William Ackman, to serve on the board of Automatic Data Processing Inc.   NYT - The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is investigating Wells Fargo & Co for not refunding car buyers who bought special insurance and repaid their loans early. nyti.ms/2vgw7AT - Alphabet Inc's Google on Monday fired a software engineer who wrote an internal memo that questioned the company's diversity efforts. The employee, who confirmed his firing, argued in the memo that the gender gap among high-tech employees was due in part to biological differences. nyti.ms/2vgJMIh - Programmers are still embarking on new initial coin offerings at a torrid pace even after the Securities and Exchange Commission issued its first warning late last month for entrepreneurs who have been raising money by creating and selling their own virtual currencies. nyti.ms/2vgJPnr - Cable network FX has struck a deal with Comcast Corp to offer a commercial-free experience for its currently airing shows, and some older ones, through a service, called FX+, that will start in September. nyti.ms/2vgY6jY   Canada THE GLOBE AND MAIL ** Trading in the shares of Great Canadian Gaming Corp was halted by regulators last week because of "pending news," ahead of a provincial announcement about who will run gambling in the Greater Toronto Area. The Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp is expected to select a business within days to take over operations at its casino and thousands of slot machines in the GTA for the next two decades. tgam.ca/2vhwkDU ** A number of executives at Eight Capital Corp have left the independent brokerage firm, weeks after it was involved in a controversial, and unsuccessful, financing deal for a new marijuana company. The departures, which took place over the past month, included former chief executive officer Mark Attanasio and Donato Sferra, who was managing director of investment banking, according to people familiar with the situation. tgam.ca/2vhTlq8 ** Saudi Arabia's use of combat machines against its Shia population goes to the heart of the controversy over whether the Trudeau government is violating Canada's weapons export-control rules. The Trudeau government has reached out to Saudi Arabia and Western allies to register unease over Riyadh's apparent use of Canadian armored vehicles against its own citizens, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland says.tgam.ca/2vhUWMD NATIONAL POST ** Final hearings on the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline began on Monday with testy exchanges between a lawyer for Nebraska landowners who oppose the project and a company executive and a local economist whose studies tout the benefits of the venture. bit.ly/2vhAsUw ** Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall said in an interview that he is worried the environmental rules Ottawa is set to introduce later this year will strain national unity in the resource-dependent West. bit.ly/2vhGcNH   Britain The Times The booming jobs market shows no signs of abating, according to figures from recruitment agencies that show the fastest rise in jobs placements for more than two years. bit.ly/2vgeWPN Investors in Paddy Power Betfair Plc were nursing heavy losses yesterday after the FTSE 100 gambling operator surprised the market by announcing the resignation of its chief executive. bit.ly/2vJgfKf The Guardian Companies will no longer be able to pay employees their salaries in gold bullion in the first use of a new law designed to combat "morally repugnant" tax avoidance schemes. bit.ly/2fmsyVX Hopes of a breakthrough for householders trapped in the leasehold scandal are rising after a major developer agreed to buy back some freeholds and axe ground rent clauses. bit.ly/2uiIRpq The Telegraph Global Blue, the tax refund payment firm, is paving the way for a 4-billion-euro ($4.72 billion) flotation at the turn of the year, possibly in London. bit.ly/2uALNN9 The government has given the green light to a major offshore wind farm which could prove to be the cheapest yet in UK waters. bit.ly/2hE16U7 Sky News An investment vehicle set up by two scions of the billionaire Wal-Mart Stores Inc dynasty will this week emerge as the victor of a 200-million-pound ($260.70 million)race to buy Rapha, the British maker of upmarket cycling gear. bit.ly/2vdRogh Video-streaming business Netflix Inc has announced its first acquisition -- Millarworld, a Scottish comic book company. bit.ly/2fn35M4

Выбор редакции
29 июля, 04:28

Sprint is reportedly seeking a merger with Charter, the nation's second-biggest cable company

But Comcast could have a big say in whether a deal happens.

Выбор редакции
29 июля, 04:26

Sprint is reportedly seeking a merger with Charter, the nation's second-biggest cable company

But Comcast could have a big say in whether a deal happens.

Выбор редакции
28 июля, 23:39

Telecom Stock Roundup: AT&T, Verizon, Comcast and American Tower Post Strong Q2 Results

The telecom industry experienced a strong run on the bourse last week as most of the key stocks traded in the green due to strong second-quarter 2017 earnings results.

28 июля, 23:39

Telecom Stock Roundup: AT&T, Verizon, Comcast and American Tower Post Strong Q2 Results

The telecom industry experienced a strong run on the bourse last week as most of the key stocks traded in the green due to strong second-quarter 2017 earnings results.

Выбор редакции
28 июля, 22:23

Theme Parks, Broadband To Drive Future Growth For Comcast

Comcast released its Q2 earnings on July 27, beating analyst earnings estimates by 4 cents per share, driven by a 9.8% y-o-y rise in revenues and a 10% surge in adjusted EBITDA. The top line increase was led by the Theme Parks business, which saw a 15.6% increase in revenue.

28 июля, 16:18

Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights: Comcast, AT&T, Verizon Communications, Charter Communications and Sprint

Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights: Comcast, AT&T, Verizon Communications, Charter Communications and Sprint

28 июля, 09:29

Dow Jones вырос в четверг на корпоративной отчетности

Американский фондовый индекс Dow Jones Industrial Average вырос по итогам торгов в четверг и завершил сессию на рекордной в истории отметке, тогда как спад в секторе высокотехнологичных компаний привел к снижению индексов Standard & Poor's 500 и Nasdaq Composite.

27 июля, 22:35

U.S. Telecommunications Industry Outlook - July 2017

U.S. Telecommunications Industry Outlook - July 2017

Выбор редакции
27 июля, 19:01

Charter Communications (CHTR) Q2 Earnings Lag Estimates

Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) continues to lose customers in the residential video segment.

27 июля, 18:21

Comcast (CMCSA) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates

Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) reported strong results for Filmed Entertainment Division in the second quarter of 2017.

27 июля, 18:08

Q2 Earnings and Economic Data In Focus

Q2 Earnings and Economic Data In Focus

27 июля, 17:09

Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Q2 Earnings: All Favorable (Except Twitter)

Twitter shares are currently down roughly 10% following flat user growth numbers in its Q2 earnings report.

27 июля, 14:49

Comcast (CMCSA) Tops Q2 Earnings and Revenue, Shares Up

Comcast Corp.'s (CMCSA) decision to venture into the U.S. wireless space bodes well with its diversified business model.

Выбор редакции
27 июля, 14:28

Квартальная прибыль Comcast превзошла ожидания аналитиков

Американский оператор кабельного телевидения Comcast представил финансовые результаты за второй квартал, в соответствии с которыми чистая прибыль возросла с $2,03 млрд или 41 цента на акцию годом ранее до $2,51 млрд или 52 центов на бумагу. Выручка, тем временем, увеличилась на 9,8% г/г и достигла $21,17 млрд. Заметим, что аналитики ожидали прибыль на уровне 48 центов на акцию при выручке в $20,86 млрд. Сообщается, что выручка подразделения NBCUniversal повысилась в рассматриваемом периоде на 17,3% г/г, подразделения Theme Parks – на 15,6% г/г, а подразделения Filmed Entertainment – на 59,6% г/г.

Выбор редакции
27 июля, 14:08

Квартальная прибыль Comcast превзошла ожидания аналитиков

Американский оператор кабельного телевидения Comcast представил финансовые результаты за второй квартал, в соответствии с которыми чистая прибыль возросла с $2,03 млрд или 41 цента на акцию годом ранее до $2,51 млрд или 52 центов на бумагу. Выручка, тем временем, увеличилась на 9,8% г/г и достигла $21,17 млрд. Заметим, что аналитики ожидали прибыль на уровне 48 центов на акцию при выручке в $20,86 млрд. Сообщается, что выручка подразделения NBCUniversal повысилась в рассматриваемом периоде на 17,3% г/г, подразделения Theme Parks – на 15,6% г/г, а подразделения Filmed Entertainment – на 59,6% г/г.

27 июля, 13:55

Global Stocks Hit New All Time High As Dollar Rebounds; Europe Volatile On Earnings Deluge

The levitation continues with S&P futures pointing to - what else - another higher open while European stocks swung between gains and losses on the busiest earnings days of the year (85 of the Stoxx 600 report) which has seen European pharma giant AstraZeneca plunge 15%, the most on record, after its flagship lung cancer trial Mystic failed to show benefits, while Deutsche Bank slumped 4% on a 12% plunge in FICC revenue. Asian shares rose spurred by results and alongside a surge in China's small-cap ChiNext index which surged 3.6%, its biggest one day gain since last August, after earnings reports revealed that the Chinese "National Team" aka PPT had bought 2 ChiNext shares. Europe's Stoxx Europe 600 Index fluctuated before edging lower amid the wave of company reports, with the likes of Nokia and BASF beating estimates but Deutsche Bank and Airbus disappointing. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.1 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index decreased less than 0.1 percent. Germany’s DAX Index fell 0.5 percent. The MSCI Emerging Market Index rose 0.9 percent to the highest in about three years. In Asia, solid earnings from giants Samsung and Nintendo helped the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to the highest since December 2007. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.4 percent, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 0.4 percent. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index added 0.7 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.1 percent. Meanwhile, the MSCI's 47-country All World share index cheered its latest record high. The big story remains the relentless drop in the greenback which however may have paused for the time being, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index paring an earlier drop, but still trading near the lowest in more than a year after the Fed once again surprised on the dovish side by altering its wording around inflation, suggesting recent inflationary weakness may be more persistent than expected. "The dollar's biggest problem is it can't expect help from the Fed for a long time," said Alan Ruskin, global head of forex at Deutsche Bank.  "In the short term we are still in a risk-favorable loop, whereby subdued goods and services inflation supports a well-behaved bond market and asset inflation. It's just another day in paradise." Elsewhere in currencies, the yen traded at 111.35 per dollar, while the Aussie extended gains above 80 US cents, rising 0.4 percent after jumping 0.9 percent Wednesday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped less than 0.05 percent to the lowest in about 15 months as of 9:40 a.m. in London. The euro declined 0.1 percent to $1.1727. The British pound rose 0.1 percent to $1.3138, the strongest in more than 10 months. The Swiss franc decreased 0.3 percent to $0.9542, the weakest in more than a week. Oil prices paused near eight-week highs after a surprisingly sharp drop in U.S. inventories encouraged speculation a global crude glut would recede. A bout of profit-taking saw Brent crude futures ease 7 cents to $50.90 a barrel, while U.S. crude dipped 5 cents to $48.70. In rates, Germany’s 10-year yield decreased five basis points to 0.52 percent. France’s 10-year yield fell four basis points to 0.772 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 1.191 percent. Economic data include jobless claims, durable goods orders. Scheduled earnings include Amazon, Procter & Gamble, Comcast, Verizon, Intel. U.S. Bulletin Headline Summary Swedish PM, Lofven is said to not call a snap election and is to re-arrange cabinet Yields have continued to soften across Europe Looking ahead, highlights include US Durables, Wholesale Inventories and Weekly Jobs Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,477.75 MXAP up 1% to 160.81 MXAPJ up 0.9% to 532.31 Nikkei up 0.2% to 20,079.64 Topix up 0.4% to 1,626.84 Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 27,131.17 Shanghai Composite up 0.06% to 3,249.78 Sensex up 0.4% to 32,524.37 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,785.01 Kospi up 0.4% to 2,443.24 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.08% to 382.44 German 10Y yield fell 4.7 bps to 0.514% Euro down 0.08% to 1.1725 per US$ Italian 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 1.836% Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.2 bps to 1.515% Brent Futures down 0.3% to $50.84/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,261.95 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 93.52 Top Overnight News Deutsche Bank’s Trading Outlook Dims; AstraZeneca Plummets After Failed Trial; Big Oil Earnings Beat Across the Board Libor will be phased out by the end of 2021, as U.K. regulators and banks look to replace the scandal- tarred indicator with a more reliable system Senate Republicans who have promised to demolish Obamacare are swerving toward a bare-bones approach that might eliminate just a few pieces of the landmark health-care law Hedge funds which had built up an unprecedented bet against two-year U.S. notes in the futures market, left battered by the dovish Fed With House members planning to leave Washington Friday for a five-week recess, the lack of a budget is raising doubts that a tax rewrite -- one of President Donald Trump’s top priorities -- can get done this year, or even before the 2018 elections Schneider Electric SE agreed to buy U.S. power-systems maker ASCO Power Technologies for $1.25 billion as the French company expands in North America and seeks to offset falling sales at its infrastructure division Energy Capital Partners, the private equity firm that owns the largest stake in U.S. power generator Dynegy Inc., is now in advanced talks to buy its rival Calpine Corp. Apollo Global Management LLC amassed $24.6 billion for the largest fund ever raised by a leveraged-buyout firm, crowning a string of record-setting war chests as investors hunt for better returns Just four months into his latest turnaround plan, Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan is already dialing back ambitions Viacom has dropped out of the bidding to buy Scripps; Discovery remains in talks for deal, WSJ reports Ex-PBOC adviser sees capital outflow as biggest potential threat: Caixin Moody’s changes China banking system outlook to stable from negative Japan doesn’t need fiscal stimulus, economic adviser Takahashi says Brazil cuts benchmark lending rate by 100bps to 9.25% Asia equity markets were mostly higher following the US gains, where stocks marginally extended on advances amid earnings and following a somewhat dovish-perceived FOMC. As such, mild upside was observed in ASX 200 and Nikkei 225, with the former led by strength across the commodities complex. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng. traded mixed with underperformance in the mainland bourse after the PBoC reduced its liquidity operations, while participants also digested mixed Industrial Profits data. 10yr JGBs were higher despite the mostly positive tone in the region, as yields tracked the declines in their US counterparts following the aforementioned FOMC, while today's 2yr auction results failed to impact prices as the results were mixed. China Industrial Profits in June rose Y/Y 19.1%, above May's 16.7%.  The PBoC injected CNY 60bln 7-day reverse repos, while the PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.7307 (Prey. 6.7529) Top Asia News Noble Group Shares Collapse After Warning of $1.8 Billion Loss Glencore Is Said In Talks to Share Assets Yancoal Won From Rio India Said to Mull Allowing Funds to Lend Bonds in Repo Market Queensland Sees Adani Tapping Equipment Firms to Fund Giant Mine Japan’s Main Opposition Leader Resigns Amid Turmoil in Her Party European equities are pretty choppy this morning with today being without a doubt the busiest session so far in Europe on the earnings front, as the majority of Europe's largest reported before the open. All eyes on AstraZeneca (-15%) as they look set for their worst day on record after initial reports in their lung cancer trial failed to meet primary objectives. Consequently, the healthcare sector underperforms noticeably with the sector slipping 1.5%. On a brighter note, AB InBev and Diageo are enjoying sizeable gains after firm financial results. EGBs higher this morning with the German curve slightly flatter this morning, notable activity has been seen going through in futures with reports of one black trade of 5k at 162.29 with some believing this to be a buyer of Bunds. The EU has warned that the next phase of Brexit negotiations will be delayed for two months because of the UK's refusal to engage with Brussels on the so-called 'Brexit divorce bill', according to the Telegraph. UK Home Secretary Rudd said the government would seek a transitional Brexit arrangement, which would likely to include free movement to avoid a "cliff edge" for employers or EU nationals in the country. Top European News London Walkie Talkie Skyscraper Sells for a Record $1.7 Billion Macron Unleashes a Decade of Italian Anger Since Zidane Headbutt Price Shock Too Big to Ignore Seen Halting Russian Rate Cuts Norway Gas Outage Keeps EU Traders Busy Before Summer Lull U.K. Commissions Study Into Impact of EU Workers on Economy In currencies, USD selling continued last night post the FOMC meeting in which the central bank was slightly more downbeat on inflation. Subsequently, this prompt the USD sell-off to benefit major FX pairs, with the greenback at 2Y lows against the EUR. Notable size in the options market with 1.3bln worth of vanilla options situated at 1.17. Sweden are currently gripped by a political crisis after opposition parties called for a no confidence vote in PM Lofven's minority government (potentially for August) following handling of an IT out-sourcing deal. With suggestions that the option on the table were possibly for the PM to call a snap election EURSEK broke the early morning range of 9.5680-9.5870 to breach 9.6000. However, the weakness in SEK had been pared after the PM announced that he would reshuffle cabinet. Looking at the day today, we will see June data on durable (+3.7% mom expected) and capital goods orders (+0.3% mom expected) as well as wholesale inventories (+0.3% mom expected). We will also see jobless claims numbers and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index (11 expected) due. Notable US companies reporting include: Intel, Western Digital, Dow Chemical, Mastercard, Procter & Gamble, Conocophillips and Amazon. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 233,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.96m, prior 1.98m 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 3.7%, prior -0.8%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3% 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.25%, prior 0.1% 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $65.5b deficit, prior $65.9b deficit, revised $66.3b deficit 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.25%, prior 0.4%; Retail Inventories MoM, prior 0.6% 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.4, prior -0.3 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 47.6 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 11, prior 11 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Before we review a broadly in-line FOMC, albeit one that led to a sharpish fall in yields and the dollar its worth reminiscing that it was 5 years ago yesterday that Draghi gave his infamous "Whatever it takes..." speech. So what did it take and what did it achieve? Well the depo rate was cut 4 times to -0.4% and ECB balance sheet has expanded to €4.24tn from just over €3tn 5 years ago. However in September 2014 this had dropped to c.€2tn. So in just under 3 years the ECB has acquired around €2.25tn of securities which interestingly is roughly the size of the entire annual output of France (population 67mn) and only a bit more than that of India (population 1.32bn). Over that 5 year period of 39 major global assets we track on a regular basis the IBEX (+109%), S&P 500 (+106%), FTSE-MIB (+93%) and the DAX (+84%) are the best performers in USD terms. As one would expect Spanish (+52%) and Italian (+44%) government bonds have dramatically outperformed Bunds (+6%), Treasuries (+5%) and Gilts (+2%). The Euro is actually 'only' -4% lower against the USD over the period. Actually it's interesting that in this world of extreme QE and the perception that bonds are  in a semi-permanent low yield environment with inflation at rock bottom levels, that the core bond market returns above are actually pretty uninspiring and would have given investors a negative real return over 5 years. Probably our strongest held medium-term view continues to be that core bond markets have very  little chance of giving investors a positive real return over any medium-long term horizon. Anyway Draghi clearly did what it took to avert a European financial disaster but only history will tell us whether the huge asset purchases, negative rates and yields were a price worth paying for such a dramatic turnaround in the peripheral asset class complex. It will also be interesting to see what history makes of the Fed's huge balance sheet expansion in recent years and also their decision to start the reduction process. It will be a journey into the unknown from a historical perspective. On that topic last night's FOMC outcome was broadly inline with expectations but the market must have thought it more dovish than expected as 10 year US yields fell around 4.5bps after the statement and by the same amount on the day. The Dollar index fell by -0.5% immediately after too. Our US economists saw two minor surprises in the statement. One was the more explicit firming in the Committee’s guidance about the timing to start its balance sheet unwind, which they now expect to begin “relatively soon.” Secondly, it was how the Committee described the inflation outlook. They now acknowledged the further decline in (PCE) inflation since the June meeting, and now view inflation as running “below” rather than “somewhat below” their inflation target (2% in the medium term). Elsewhere, the committee upgraded their view on job gains post solid June employment stats. On the back of this, DB’s rate expectations remain unchanged, where we expect the Fed to announce it will begin a gradual tapering of its balance sheet reinvestment purchases in October and see the next rate hike coming in December. Looking at market pricing from Bloomberg, traders appear to have taken a very slightly dovish outlook, with the chance of a rate hike in Dec 17 slightly lowered to 43% vs. 45% pre the FOMC. Global equity markets continued to post small gains yesterday. Over in the US, the FOMC didn't seem to have much impact and generally strong earnings pushed the S&P 500 (+0.03%), Dow (+0.45%) and the NASDAQ (+0.17%) to slightly higher brand new highs. In Europe the STOXX 600 index posted strong gains of +0.5%, with nearly every single sector ending the day in positive territory. Regional markets were also broadly positive, as the DAX (+0.33%), FTSE (+0.24%), CAC (+0.56%) and FTSE MIB (+0.56%) were all up on the day as well. This morning in Asia, markets are broadly up, with the Nikkei (+0.1%), Kospi (+0.2%) and Hang Seng (+0.5%) higher, but two of the three main Chinese bourses have fallen -0.6% with the Shenzhen bucking the trend (+0.6%). Back to bonds yesterday, in Europe we saw German Bund yields (2Y -1bp; 10Y -1bp) lower. Elsewhere Gilt yields fell across all maturities (2Y -3bps; 10Y -3bps) following a fairly lacklustre (if expected) Q2 GDP growth number of +0.3% (+0.2% last quarter) or +1.7% YoY (+2.0% previous). In other FX markets the Euro/USD climbed by 0.7% - all after the FOMC - and to a fresh 30-month high. Sterling/USD also climbed a similar amount at the same point (+0.6%) to 10-month highs. Both are also a couple of tenths of a percent higher again in Asian trading. In commodity markets the energy sector saw broad based gains as oil continued to rally (WTI +1.8% - although most of this was holding onto levels from the after hours performance the night before), with gains of +6.2% on the week so far. Precious metals were mostly flat on the day while industrial metals gained (Copper +3.3%; Aluminium +0.9%). Agricultural commodities also posted broad based gains. Away from markets, the voting drama to repeal Obamacare continues. Overnight, the Senate rejected a simple repeal of the plan on votes of 45-55. Senator Cornyn is now exploring a scaled back repeal plan that may be easier to pass, but the House Freedom Caucus Chairman Meadows said there was “zero” chance the house would go for a skinny repeal of Obamacare even if the Senate pass it first. Forward plans are still unclear and it is possible that this could lead to an all-night voting event at some point soon, featuring dozens of amendment votes. Elsewhere, Treasury secretary Mnuchin reiterated the government can finance tself through September but warned that there is a cost to delaying an increase to the government debt limit. Staying with US fiscal policy, the Washington Post ran a story that White House officials may be looking to pass a sharp short-term tax cut if President Trump’s broader tax reform plans falter. These contingency plans could be pursued as soon as September and highlight the challenges faced by a broader tax overhaul. According to the story, the top advocates for the targeted tax cut are Larry Kudlow and Steve Moore, both top economic advisers during Trump’s campaign who remain in contact with White House officials. Their pitch is a plan called “Three Easy Pieces” which would (i) cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15% for 10 years, (ii) double the standardized deduction that Americans claim in their taxes and (iii) allow companies to bring money back from overseas without a significant tax penalty. While Moore expects the changes to cost between U$2-3tn over 10 years, they could ramp up economic growth and give Congress more time to plan out a broader overhaul of the tax code. This is however a departure from the tax plan crafted by Mnuchin and Cohn over several months, and neither has reportedly entertained the idea much so far. This should become an important story to follow contingent on how tax reform discussions proceed. Taking a look now at some of the other data out yesterday. Europe saw the July consumer confidence reading out of France disappoint (104 vs. 108 expected; 108 previous). Over in the US the only data ahead of the FOMC rate decision was new home sales data which held steady at 610k against expectations of an increase (615k expected; 610 previous). For Thursday, the morning session looks quiet with only the German GfK Consumer Confidence indicator for August (10.6 expected; 10.6 previous) and the Euro area M3 money supply number due. Across the pond it’s a busier day over in the US as we will see June data on durable (+3.7% mom expected) and capital goods orders (+0.3% mom expected) as well as wholesale inventories (+0.3% mom expected). We will also see jobless claims numbers and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index (11 expected) due. Notable US companies reporting include: Intel, Western Digital, Dow Chemical, Mastercard, Procter & Gamble, Conocophillips and Amazon. Notable European companies reporting include: Nestle, Shell, Fiat, Volkswagen and Bayer AG. Indeed this is set to be the busiest day for European earnings with 85 of the Stoxx 600 reporting.