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04 октября, 21:34

Trump courts Colorado oil executives

Donald Trump huddled Tuesday with oil and gas executives in Colorado, expanding his outreach to an industry that has seen its influence grow in the Republican nominee's campaign after some early missteps.Trump told the industry he would reduce regulations, in contrast to the approach of President Barack Obama and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Safety and environmental rules are necessary, Trump told the executives, according to a pool report, but there are also "regulations that are totally unnecessary and put people out of work." He apparently did not get into specifics in the 10 minutes reporters were allowed to stay in the room. The Trump campaign said 15 executives were invited to the meeting, but a pool reporter said he counted only 14 people in the room. One executive stressed the importance of "the shale revolution," and all generally agreed with Trump's conclusion that "regulations are probably your biggest problem."Trump's meeting in Denver comes as two polls this week showed Clinton with an 11-point lead in Colorado. Trump brought up polls of the state and told the oil executives "we're doing really well," according to the pool report.The New York developer raised eyebrows in the state this summer when he appeared to endorse proposed ballot measures that would have effectively let cities and towns ban fracking. "I think if the voters are voting for it, that's up to them," he told a local TV station in July. In the end, activists failed to collect enough signatures to get the anti-fracking measures on the November ballot, and Trump associates walked back his comment.Continental Resources CEO Harold Hamm, the oil executive said to be on Trump's Energy Secretary short list, later told the Wall Street Journal that Trump "did not understand" the issue of local fracking bans when he answered the question but "he does now." At Tuesday's meeting, Trump also told the oil and gas executives that while safety and environmental regulations are called for, regulations have generally "gotten out of control" and solely benefit "people in government," according to the pool report."The energy business is being decimated," Trump said.The Republican nominee sought to cement his once-shaky support among oil and gas producers last month with a speech at a gas industry conference in Pittsburgh, where he vowed that the industry is "going to like Donald Trump." The two-year slide in oil prices has forced cutbacks and belt-tightening across the board in the industry, which has consistently challenged Obama over regulations it argues would deepen the pain of the downturn.Slated participants in the meeting included three top executives at HRM Resources, whose president and CEO backed the 2014 reelection bid of Colorado's pro-fracking Democratic governor, John Hickenlooper. Colorado Petroleum Council Executive Director Tracee Bentley, a former aide to Hickenlooper, was also scheduled to attend, according to the pool report.The other anticipated attendees were Kent Gilbert of Fifth Creek Energy; Mercator Energy CEO John Harpole; PDC CEO Bart Brookman; Scott Stewart of Gilbert-Stewart Operating; Chip Rimer of Noble Energy; Enduring Resources CEO Barth Whitham; Synergy Resources CEO Lynn Peterson; Bayswater CEO Steve Struna; Eaton Metal CEO Tim Travis; Inflexion Energy CEO Mark Sextron; and NexGen Resources CEO Charlie McNeil.None of the executives have donated to Trump's campaign, according to a search of campaign finance records.Eli Stokols contributed to this report.

30 сентября, 20:29

Trump Economic Adviser "Pushing" for Climate Denier, Fracking Promoter to Head EPA

Photo Credit: Heritage Foundation | YouTube ScreenshotCross-Posted from DeSmogBlogStephen Moore -- economic adviser for Republican Party presidential candidate Donald Trump's campaign -- recently told Politico's Morning Energy that he is "pushing" to have a climate change denier and fossil fuel promoter, Kathleen Hartnett White, named as head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) if Trump is elected president in November.Buried in Politico's daily newsletter on September 28, the news comes as the Trump campaign has also announced that another climate change denier -- Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) -- is leading Trump's EPA transition team.White currently serves as a fellow-in-residence at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, which, like CEI, is funded by ExxonMobil and Koch Industries, and she also serves on the Trump campaign's economic advisory team. White co-heads the Texas Public Policy Foundation's Fueling Freedom Project, which has among its stated goals to "explain the forgotten moral case for fossil fuels" and "end the regulation of CO2 as a pollutant."In addition, she formerly served as a special assistant to First Lady Nancy Reagan in the Ronald Reagan White House, as former Texas Republican Governor Rick Perry's appointee to the Texas Center on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and as an appointee to the Texas Water Development Board under then-Governor George W. Bush.News of White's possible EPA appointment comes as scientists say the planet has now permanently passed the threshold of 400 parts per million of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). At a global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius, the scientific consensus says we could see calamitous impacts, while many say the already locked-in warming of 1.5 degrees is the safe limit. Trump's Fracking CorpsWhite is only one of many Trump campaign consultants with direct ties to the hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") industry.Trump's prospective Secretary of Energy under Trump and a key campaign energy adviser, Harold Hamm, also has an industry connection as CEO and founder of a major fracking company, Continental Resources. Continental has a stake in the building of both the northern leg of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines.Politico's Morning Energy also reported that Larry Nichols, the co-founder and retired CEO of fracking giant Devon Energy, serves on the Trump campaign as an energy adviser. Devon Energy also funds the Texas Public Policy Foundation and CEI.Moore told Morning Energy that Hamm, Nichols, and White are "among a small group of people who have Donald Trump's ear on energy policy." Moore himself founded the Koch Industries-funded Club for Growth, a right-wing political fundraising group, and he and White co-authored a book published in May titled, "Fueling Freedom: Exposing the Mad War on Energy.""I've been told by some of the staff it's been useful to them," White told SNL Energy Finance Daily in a recent interview of the book, which includes chapters promoting fracking, calling green energy a false hope, and referring to the looming creation of a "Saudi America."Like White, Moore formerly worked in the Reagan White House, serving as research director for President Reagan's Privatization Commission.Climate Denier, Fracking, Coal PromoterOn numerous instances, White has disavowed climate change and denied that it is caused by human activity. Mirroring her, Trump has dismissed climate change as a Chinese hoax. However, Trump denied saying that during the first presidential debate when brought up by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton."No matter how many times, the President, EPA and the media rant about 'dirty carbon pollution,' there is no pollution about carbon itself! As a dictionary will tell you, carbon is the chemical basis of all life," White wrote in September 2015."Our flesh, blood and bones are built of carbon. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the gas of life on this planet, an essential nutrient for plant growth on which human life depends. How craftily our government has masked these fundamental realities and the environmental benefits of fossil fuels!"She also derided climate science as having been "institutionalized" by elites and elite institutions, writing that dealing with the problem of climate change would be akin to allowing societal collapse."The weak science and counterproductive policies have been institutionalized in law, academia, media, and culture," she wrote in the National Review magazine in March 2016. "The elites effectively promote the specter of a planetary meltdown forecast by supposedly unequivocal science, while they dismiss the civilizational threat of trying to decarbonize human society."In August 2016, White wrote an article deriding President Barack Obama's "deluded and illegitimate battle against climate change."Beyond denying climate change, White also serves as a major promoter of fracking for shale oil and gas and of exporting U.S.-produced oil. She has also written a report and given a speech making a "moral case" for fossil fuel production and consumption."A rapid increase of domestic supplies of oil and gas at a time of painful gas prices; high-paying new jobs; expansion of thousands of businesses; increased federal, state, and local tax revenues: What's not to like?," wrote White. "The U.S. has far more energy resources than any other country, yet no other country so limits and blocks access to its own energy supply. The opposition to fracking displays this unfortunate mentality."In a recent article White concluded that the 2016 Republican Party platform "is right" and that "coal is clean," while in another article in October 2013 she came out against the regulation of coal-fired power plants by the Obama administration and its Clean Power Plan."The imperial EPA has once again raised its scepter, this time proposing the first hard caps on carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants," she wrote. "The proposed coal rule merits a deeper assessment than it has yet received. The impacts of this and other EPA rules targeting coal go far beyond the coal industry. The EPA is undermining the very foundations of economic productivity."Internal documents published by the group Common Cause show that in 2010, White attended the American Legislative Exchange Council's Energy, Environmental, and Agriculture Task Force meeting. The Texas Public Policy Foundation is a member of the ALEC-created State Policy Network, a collective of industry-funded think-tanks (called "stink tanks" by critics) which produce reports and other public relations materials in service to the right-wing corporate agenda."Get White Out"Perhaps portending what an EPA would look under her watch, in 2007 White came under fire for her inaction on climate change and environmental concerns while chairing TCEQ, with the watchdog group Public Citizen creating a billboard image near the TCEQ's headquarters demanding to "Get White Out" and also crafting a website by the same name.Public Citizen said White had not done enough to halt climate change or slow mercury and air pollution and also said she tried to erode democracy by eliminating the right to comment publicly on a proposed project unless one lived within two miles of its proposed site."Chairman White has failed to lead our environmental agency in the right direction. Instead of acting to curb the serious threat from global warming, the TCEQ buried its head in the sand, and determined that global warming impacts would not have to be considered in the contested case hearings for any of the coal plant permits," Get White Out's website said of her tenure. One thing seems clear: If he wins in November, Trump's climate and energy team will likely wipe out any U.S. progress on the ever-worsening global climate crisis. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

30 сентября, 00:11

Donald Trump's Fractional Fundraising

Mitt Romney weighs in on the Republican presidential race last spring. Donald Trump has outraised Romney in just three of 93 industries tracked by OpenSecrets.org, according to data going through the end of August 2016 for Trump and the same time four years earlier for the previous GOP nominee. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File) By: Jack Noland Donald Trump and Mitt Romney may not have much in common, and the 2012 GOP presidential nominee has made no bones about his visceral dislike of the pugilistic businessman who is carrying his party's banner this time around. When it comes to campaign fundraising, though, there's a lot of overlap in their pools of donors. Through August, Trump's donors this cycle and Romney's four years ago came from many of the same interest groups. Their campaigns both counted the real estate industry, health professionals and lawyers among their top five donor industries, and retirees were No. 1 for each of them. The difference is that Trump has raised just a fraction of Romney's take from each industry, and lags far behind his predecessor in overall fundraising. Retirees normally are at or near the top of candidates' donor lists. America's retired people are campaign finance juggernauts: They contributed more than any other group to both Romney and President Barack Obama in 2012, giving a total $126.6 million to presidential candidates over the course of the cycle. Still, while they're tops on Trump's roster, by the end of August they'd given only $14.5 million, less than half the $36.1 million they had donated to Romney at the same point in 2012. Hillary Clinton, this year's Democratic nominee, had raised around $45.2 million from seniors as September began, more than either Romney or Trump -- although retirees rank second, not first, among her leading donor industries. Wall Street ranked second for Romney; for Trump, it ranked only seventh. By the end of August 2012, Romney's campaign had pulled in more than $18.7 million from the securities and investment industry, while Trump's had raised a breathtakingly small amount from the normally high-rolling employees and PACs in the field in the same time frame this cycle: just $541,780. Clinton had received more than $7.2 million in Wall Street funds. For Trump, employees and PACs in our miscellaneous business category -- chemicals, textiles, retail, restaurants and a hodgepodge of other enterprises -- gave Trump his second-highest yield, roughly $1.5 million. While the industry came in only seventh on his list, Romney had raised $4.85 million from its members. While Trump is perhaps best known as a real estate magnate, even employees and PACs in that industry weren't as generous to Trump through August as they had been to Romney. The 2016 nominee has collected more than $1.5 million from that interest area, while Romney had taken in a full $10.7 million by the same point. Rounding out the top five for both candidates were contributions from health professionals and lawyers, plus their related PACs, but again, Trump's numbers pale: $1.1 million and $635,000, respectively, compared with Romney's $6.6 million and $9.5 million. Overall, in fact, there were only three industries -- out of the 93 used by CRP to classify contributions -- that have given Trump more than they gave Romney through August. But the three -- industrial unions, transportation unions and miscellaneous unions -- provided mere pocket change to each candidate, combining to give Trump $4,829 and Romney $500. Trump has been far more successful raising money from individuals than from political action committees. In fact, only a handful of corporate PACs have shared their funds with him: Taco Bell's TACO PAC; IHOP's Pancake PAC; the PAC of Salem Media, a chain of Christian radio stations; the Ohio Coal Association's PAC; and the PACs of oil and gas firm Continental Resources and Nexstar Media. Trump's overall numbers are low in part because he didn't really start a concerted fundraising push until this summer; before that he said he was "self-funding" his campaign. And Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato's Crystal Ball, a University of Virginia election forecasting outlet, noted that Trump's efforts have generally skewed toward small-dollar donors. "Trump's small-dollar fundraising has actually been pretty decent," he said. "Some of the big money people aren't as excited about him." In fact, about twice as much of Trump's total haul from individuals has come from small ($200 and under) donors as from larger ones. The FEC doesn't require candidates to release detailed information -- name, address, employer and so on -- about these donors to the public, so we can't sort them by industry. Overall, 29 percent of his cash has come from small donors, compared with 19 percent of Clinton's. The Republican's campaign said it raised $18 million on Tuesday, the day after the first presidential debate; but while some of that no doubt came from small donors, the campaign also had a "National Call Day" in which big donors were asked to come to Trump Tower and call their dearest friends and associates to hit them up for larger sums. Trump has raised more than Clinton in just a handful of industries thus far. Predictably, he had taken more from Republican/conservative and gun rights interests, earning $529,797 and $180,204 more than the Democrat, respectively. He also holds the lead in contributions from those working in mining, building equipment and materials, poultry and eggs, trucking and a category we call "miscellaneous agriculture," into which we put donors who list vague occupations like, well, "farmer." And there are only four industries from which Trump collected more than $1 million (the aforementioned retirees, health professionals, real estate and miscellaneous business). Clinton, on the other hand, had 31 industries that have been at least that generous to her, while Obama and Romney enjoyed seven-figure sums from 26 and 29 industries, respectively, through Aug. 31. Trump's fundraising capabilities going forward likely will hinge on impressions about his electoral chances, Kondik said, noting that some of the traditional Republican donors who have been wary thus far might kick in if they sense that he can win. Trump's perceived weakness in Monday's debate, though, didn't help. "I think elite opinions of Trump have always been low," Kondik said, "but they may be lower now." Senior Researcher Douglas Weber contributed to this report. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

21 сентября, 22:21

Low Oil Prices 'Slams Brakes' on North Dakota Production

North Dakota oil production was up slightly in Jul, though operators aren't predicting an industry resurgence anytime soon.

19 сентября, 20:02

Sources: Oil executive on Trump's short list for Interior Secretary

Forrest Lucas, co-founder of oil products company Lucas Oil and an outspoken opponent of animal rights, is a leading contender for Interior secretary should Donald Trump win the White House, say two sources familiar with the campaign’s deliberations. The Republican businessman, 74, is well known in Indiana, where in 2006 he won the naming rights to Lucas Oil Stadium, the home of the Indianapolis Colts football team, for a reported $121.5 million over 20 years. He and his wife have given $50,000 to Mike Pence's gubernatorial campaigns, according to Indiana state records.Lucas’ company, Lucas Oil, is a fast-growing manufacturer of automotive oils, lubricants and other additives used in everything from cars to heavy-duty trucks. One person briefed by the Trump campaign said Lucas is a “front-runner” for the Interior secretary job. The person, who was granted anonymity to talk about private discussions, added that Trump wants a “more business-friendly and business experience-heavy cabinet.” Lucas’ nomination would be a coup for the oil and gas industry, which has battled President Barack Obama’s Interior Department for years over everything from Endangered Species Act listings to access to federal lands for drilling. Trump has cultivated close ties to the oil industry, which was once skeptical of his campaign for president. Harold Hamm, the CEO of Oklahoma oil company Continental Resources, is seen as a possible pick for energy secretary in a Trump administration.Lucas' nomination would break with the long-standing tradition of Interior secretaries coming from Western states. It would also likely draw rebukes from animal rights groups. Lucas, who owns a ranch and serves on Trump’s agriculture advisory committee, is one of the biggest donors to groups that attack the Humane Society and People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, and defend animal agriculture, hunting, meat consumption, rodeos and circuses. Another source with knowledge of the transition operation said Lucas was on a short list of about five names that are under consideration for the post, which has started to attract considerable interest from prominent “anti-conservation zealots.” Donald Trump Jr., an avid hunter, has also publicly expressed interest in the job. Earlier this year, Lucas financed and produced a feature film called “The Dog Lover,” which portrays dog breeders and puppy mills as being unfairly targeted by animal rights groups. The movie was backed by Protect the Harvest, a nonprofit founded and chaired by Lucas, that says it’s “Keeping America Free, Fed & Fun!” In 2014, Lucas gave $250,000 to the Protect the Harvest PAC, records show.Roger Ebert's website called the movie “shamelessly manipulative” and “a pretty bald piece of anti-[Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals] and/or PETA propaganda,” noting that the movie ends with a call to moviegoers to look into animal welfare groups before donating to them. Lucas’ wife, Charlotte, who co-founded Lucas Oil, came under fire in 2014 for a Facebook post that criticized Muslims and atheists. "I'm sick and tired of minorities running our country!” she wrote, according to news reports at the time. She later apologized.Lucas has donated more than $150,000 to a slew of Republican candidates and causes since 2006, but records do not show any donations to Trump. In an interview last year, Lucas did not sound particularly enthused about the New York City real estate mogul.Asked if he would be comfortable with Trump getting the GOP nomination, Lucas responded: “It would be like when Obama got elected. I’d say, ‘I don’t really like it, but I have no choice and I’ll have to make the best of it.’”A Trump campaign spokeswoman did not respond to a request for comment. Lucas could not immediately be reached for comment and his office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Elana Schor contributed to this report.

16 сентября, 05:58

США замахнулись на мировое господство на рынке нефти

После обвала цен на нефть количество буровых в США уменьшилось с 1609 в октябре 2014 г. до 316 в конце мая 2016 г. Американские компании пошли на это для сокращения производственных издержек, ведь бурение – это самая затратная статья расходов.   Постепенно восстановление объемов бурения началось этим летом, и за последние несколько месяцев число работающих установок на нефтяных месторождениях выросло на треть – до 414 единиц, по данным Baker Hughes на 9 сентября этого года. Однако, несмотря на рост числа буровых, добыча в США продолжает снижаться, хотя и не столь быстрыми темпами. Согласно последней сводке EIA (Управления энергетической информации США), с апреля 2015 г., когда производство нефти превысило 9,6 млн барр./сут. – максимальный уровень с начала "сланцевого бума" – добыча сократилась до 8,93 млн барр./сут. или на 12%. EIA прогнозирует дальнейшее снижение добычи сланцевой нефти в США в следующем месяце на 61 тыс. барр./сут. – до 4,405 млн барр./сут.

09 сентября, 11:56

Советник Трампа призывает Россию и ОПЕК заморозить ...

Советник Дональда Трампа по вопросам энергетики и руководитель нефтегазовой компании Continental Resources Харольд Хамм призвал Россию и ОПЕК заморозить добычу нефти на нынешнем уровне для повышения стоимости сырья, сообщает Financial Times. По словам бизнесмена, американские производители нефти уже сократили производство в ходе длящейся два года ценовой войны, которая перевернула с ног на голову ситуацию в отрасли. Хамм, миллиарде… читать далее…

09 сентября, 10:54

Советник Трампа призвал Россию и ОПЕК заморозить добычу нефти

Советник кандидата в президенты США Дональда Трампа по вопросам энергетики и глава нефтегазовой компании Continental Resources Харольд Хамм призвал Россию и ОПЕК заморозить добычу нефти на нынешнем уровне для повышения котировок, пишет The Financial Times.

09 сентября, 08:02

«Сланцевый король» США призвал Россию и ОПЕК снизить объемы добычи нефти

Американский нефтегазовый магнат Гарольд Хэмм, которому в случае избрания на пост президента США Дональда Трампа прочат кресло министра энергетики, призвал ОПЕК и Россию договориться об уменьшении объема нефтедобычи. «Сланцевый король» отметил, что американские нефтекомпании уже снизили производство и призвал к этому своих глобальных конкурентов. «Я думаю, им пора бы прийти к соглашению», — приводит Financial Times его слова. Хэмм является главой одной из крупнейших нефтедобывающих компаний в Штатах Continental Resources и лично заинтересован в снижении мировых объемов добычи «черного золота», отмечает издание. Как писало агентство Reuters в июле со ссылкой на источники в штабе Трампа, Хэмм может стать министром энергетики Соединенных Штатов в случае победы республиканца на выборах президента.

31 августа, 15:34

Рынок зальют сланцем. Как нефтедобытчики США пережили дешёвую нефть?

С начала года стоимость нефти выросла на 60%, приблизившись к уровню рентабельности добычи сланцевой нефти в США. На протяжении всего лета, за исключением одной недели, количество работающих буровых установок в Америке только увеличивалось.

24 августа, 16:30

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Hess, Continental Resources and Valero Energy

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Hess, Continental Resources and Valero Energy

23 августа, 18:03

Oil & Gas Stock Roundup: Exxon, Chevron & Hess to Bid Jointly for Mexico Drilling Rights

On the news front, oil giants Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Hess Corp. (HES) have joined forces to bid for deepwater drilling rights in Mexico.

22 августа, 17:20

Continental Resources to Divest Non-Strategic Assets Again

Continental Resources Inc. (CLR) declared a definitive purchase and sale agreement with an undisclosed buyer to divest non-strategic assets in Montana and North Dakota.

19 августа, 14:18

Continental Resources Hits 52-Week High on Oil Recovery

Shares of leading oil producer Continental Resources, Inc. (CLR) hit a 52-week high of $48.72 during Thursday's trading session.

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18 августа, 21:33

Continental agrees to sell 80,000 acres in North Dakota, Montana

Continental Resources Inc., Oklahoma City, has agreed to sell nonstrategic properties in North Dakota and Montana to an undisclosed buyer for $222 million.

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18 августа, 14:16

Continental Resources to sell $222 mln in non-core assets in North Dakota, Montana

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.

13 августа, 17:22

В США второй добывающий штат сократил производство нефти

Добыча нефти в американском штате Северная Дакота – втором по объемам производства этого вида топлива штате страны – в ближайшее время опустится или уже опустилась ниже 1 миллиона баррелей в день, что является двухлетним минимумом, сообщило агентство Рейтер. При этом восстановление объемов добычи может занять по меньшей мере год, пишет агентство, ссылаясь на представителя профильного департамента штата. На фоне резкого снижения цен на нефть ряд компаний, таких как Continental Resources, Whiting Petroleum Corp и другие, свернули работы в регионе и начали сокращать расходы.

10 августа, 00:10

Scofield: Команда Д. Трампа. Часть X

Экономическими консультантами Трампа стали 13 человек. В число советников вошли основатель нефтегазовой компании Continental Resources Харольд Хамм, владелец хедж-фонда Джон Полсон, банкиры Стивен Калк и Энди Бил, финансист Стив Файнберг, бывший главный исполнительный директор сталепроизводителя Nucor Дэн Ди Микко, профессор экономики Калифорнийского университета Питер Наварро, инвестор в сфере недвижимости Том Бэррак, бывший экономический обозреватель Wall Street Journal Стивен Мор, глава Dune Capital Management Стивен Мнучин и главный исполнительный директор Vector Group Ховард Лорбер. Несколько слов о некоторых из 13-ти советников. Стив Файнберг (Stephen A. Feinberg) – основатель фонда Cerberus Capital Management, который с 12.04.2010 г. владеет ЧВК Dyn Corp. II. Ховард Лорбер (Howard M. Lorber ) – президент и исполнительный директор Vector Group (VGR). Компания контролируется Vanguard Group

24 января, 21:02

По нефти ...

В последнее время практически не было времени что-то писать в блог, надеюсь в 2016 году будет больше возможностейя, по мере которых постараюсь пройти по основным темам …Ситуация по нефти более-менее сложилась в единую картинку. В условиях паралича ОПЕК Саудовская Аравия, Ирак и ОАЭ активно наращивали добычу в последний год (+1.2…1.3 мбд), сланцевая отрасль США, хотя и начала сокращать добычу, но все же в 4 квартале текущего года прирост к прошлому году только обнулился. Хотя в 3 квартале 2015 года денежный поток у сланцевых компаний (цена $46.5 за баррель WTI) уже стал устойчиво отрицательным, многие предпочли тратить имеющуюся подушку ликвидности для финансирования текущих убытков, но поддерживать добычу. При ценах $40-50 за баррель WTI многим удалось бы на этом просидеть год-полтора, при цене $30 за баррель WTI бы оценивал этот период в пару кварталов, за которые либо придется все же более жестко сокращать инвестиции, либо… готовится к дефолтам (причем уже во второй половине 2016 года). О чем мечтают сланцевики в США ($60 за баррель WTI) и чего ждут по добыче (-1.6 мбд к концу 2016 года) хорошо видно из интервью главы Continental Resources Гарольда Хамма (здесь). Собственно, $60 за баррель WTI – это то, что после активного сокращения издержек, вполне устроит сланцевые компании. Но интереснее прогноз по сокращению добычи (-1.6 мбд к концу 2016 года), на данный момент EIA закладывает сокращение добычи всего на 0.7 мбд к концу 2016 года.По факту, те кто указывал на ценовую войну, развязанную Саудовской Аравией, оказались правы и наращивание добычи тому подтверждение. Хотя смысл этого спорен, т.к. добиться положительного результата в долгосрочной перспективе саудитам здесь не удастся, т.к. любой рост цен будет в перспективе приводить к росту добычи в США, мало того, падение цен привело к существенной оптимизации расходов и теперь сланцам нужно не $70-80, а около $60 за баррель и любое движение в этом направлении будет провоцировать резкий рост операций по хеджированию добычи сланцевиков. Но, учитывая уже произошедшее, СА видимо заинтересована дождаться активных банкротств в США, т.к. фактические убытки сделают кредиторов значительно более осторожными в будущем. Помимо этого, в пользу низких цен в 1 полугодии играет тот фактор, что традиционно в этот период потребление ниже, чем во втором полугодии (примерно на 1.5-2 мбд), запасы высокие и именно сейчас на рынок выходит Иран (+0.5…0.7 мбд дополнительных поставок).Но против этого могут сыграть спекулятивные позиции. В общем-то наивно было бы думать, что в краткосрочной перспективе цены на нефть определяют фундаментальные факторы спроса/предложения и текущая ситуация это доказывает в полной мере. Краткосрочно цены определяются ожиданиями рынка, его рефексией и сопутствующей этим ожиданиям спекулятивной активностью. Добыча нефти в кратко- и среднесрочном периоде неэластична по цене, а потому цена может быть практически любой. Последнее падение цен с осени 2015 года происходило на волне масштабного сокращения именно спекулятивной позиции, по WTI она рухнула с 180 тыс. контрактов (контракт = 1000 баррелей) до 36 тыс. контрактов, т.е. на 144 млн. баррелей за 3 месяца. Именно это было определяющим в падении цен с $50 до $27 за баррель, причем основное изменение позиции происходило за счет рекордного наращивания шорта по фьючерсам, а отскок до $32 за баррель за пару дней – результат закрытия части шортов.Бешенное наращивание короткой позиции обусловлено страхами относительно динамики потребления (обвал Китая, обвал мировых фондовых рынков и замедление мировой экономики) на фоне наращивания добычи ОПЕК и выхода на рынок Ирана, медленного падения добычи в США. Пересмотр ожиданий по любому из этих факторов может привести к резкому отскоку цен (что мы в моменте и увидели в конце этой недели). Могут ли в такой ситуации продавить цены ещё ниже? Маловероятно, т.к. чистая спекулятивная позиция сократилась до уровней близких к минимумам 2009 года, а объем коротких позиций просто огромен. Это позволяет говорить, что дно мы либо уже видели, либо увидим в этом квартале, мало того, в текущей цене уже заложен и возможный обвал рынков, и Китай (которые пока в реальности не реализовались), т.к. чистая позиция практически обнулилась, как и в 2009 году. Этот фактор сейчас можно считать отыгранным (по крайней мере в плане давления на цены вниз).Если смотреть на факторы спроса/предложения… в зависимости от разных источников в конце года здесь сохранялся дисбаланс 1.5-2 мбд, который был обусловлен наращиванием добычи ОПЕК на фоне умеренного снижения добычи в США. Если прогнозы EIA верны, то добыча в США упадет примерно на 0.5 мбд, если верны прогнозы главы Continental Resources – то около 1 мбд (к середине года). Это будет компенсировано ростом поставок на рынок Ирана на 0.5 мбд. Рост потребления нефти в 2016 году пока ожидается на уровне 1.2-1.4 мбд, но проблема в том, что до мая потребление обычно не растет, после чего с июня резко увеличивается примерно на 2 мбд. Это означает, что при отсутствии каких-то дестабилизирующих действий со стороны Саудовской Аравии баланс рынка сойдется летом, что должно способствовать восстановлению цен в район фундаментально более обоснованных $50-60 за баррель (ИМХО).Если смотреть 2016 год в целом, то у нас есть ряд вводных:1. «+» Спекулятивное давление вниз себя исчерпало, корректировка позиции может дать импульс вверх;2. «-» Дисбаланс 1.5-2 мбд на конец 2015 года;3. «-» Рост поставок Ирана 0.5-0.7 мбд;4. «+» Сокращение добычи в США 0.7-1.5 мбд (я бы оценивал в 1 мбд, но все зависит от цен и массовости банкротств);5. «+» Рост спроса 1.2-1.4 мбд;В целом баланс сводится к середине года, причем за счет роспуска спекулятивной позиции цены могут скорректироваться достаточно быстро, но это приведет к росту хеджирующих позиций, и роспуску запасов (при выравнивании фьючерсной кривой из состояния контанго).Риски:1. Саудовская Аравия имеет возможность поддерживать дисбаланс (имеет возможность нарастить добычу на 2 мбд), при текущих ценах они могут продержаться несколько лет только за счет золотовалютных резервов, либо пойти на отвязку от доллара;2. Рост потребления может оказаться значительно меньшим и смениться сокращением при «жесткой посадке» Китая, хотя пока Китай только наращивает импорт (+8.8% в 2015 году);3. Обвал финансовых рынков, стагнация/рецессия мировой экономики тоже могут ударить по потреблению и провоцировать резкое сокращение запасов;Ниже график расходов на потребление нефти (по рыночным ценам) в % от мирового ВВП.Однако, опять же, по моему мнению, большинство рисков спроса уже в цене, т.к. при цене на нефть в районе $25-30 за баррель затраты на потребление нефти в процентах от мирового ВВП будут на уровне минимумов 1998 года, т.е. текущая цена уже учитывает падение платежеспособности спроса. Риски роста предложения будут балансироваться значительным сокращением добычи в условиях обвала инвестиций в нефедобычу, в первую очередь, за счет США.ДОП.: По просбе добавил пару картинок по СШАP.S.: На неделе постараюсь дать расклады по Китаю, т.к. именно здесь сейас много рыночной истерии )