Джеймс Буллард
02 апреля, 16:11

Preview Of The Busy Week Ahead: Payrolls, Trade, And Powell

It's a busy week for economic data, with Friday's payrolls average hourly earnings report on Friday taking the macroeconomic spotlight, in addition to ISM Mfg and Services reports, Trade data, construction spending and March auto sales data earlier in the week.  The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chairman Powell on Friday. Wall Street consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by 195k in March, a deceleration from the better-than-expected 313k in February. BofA notes that while the inclement weather in March may not have lowered the trend in job growth, it likely lowered working hours, thereby boosting wage growth to 0.3% mom (2.8% yoy). We wonder if markets will fall for the same ruse as in February, when an identical accounting glitch sparked fears of surging inflation and unleashed the February "volocaust." As Barclays reminds us, the February Employment report was released on March 9, five weeks after the January Employment report was released on February 2. "This may have accounted for some of the outsized performance in February, whereas the march employment report is released only four weeks after the February report." In addition, Barclays thinks concerns about anti-trade policies and regulatory concerns in the tech sector may subdue hiring relative to February. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM indices will also be released; consensus expects a print of 60 for mfg and 59 for non-mfg, consistent with continued growth. The risk is sharply to the downside in the aftermath of recent trade tensions. In light of the recently launched trade war, the February Trade balance reported on Thursday will be especially closely watched for any sharp deterioration in the US trade deficit. Here is Goldman's take on key US events in the coming week: The key economic releases this week are ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chairman Powell on Friday. Monday, April 2 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, March final (consensus 55.7, last 55.7) 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing, March (GS 59.0, consensus 60.0, last 60.8): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index fell 1.8pt to 59.0 in the March report. Regional manufacturing surveys deteriorated on net in March, and much of the weakness was pronounced in mid-to-late month surveys. Our manufacturing survey tracker—which is scaled to the ISM index—declined 1.6pt to 58.4. 10:00 AM Construction spending, February (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, last flat): We estimate construction spending increased 0.6% in February, following an unchanged reading in January that reflected firmer public nonresidential and private residential construction primarily offset by weaker private nonresidential and public residential construction. 06:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will hold a town hall on monetary policy and the economy with university students in Duluth, Minnesota. Audience Q&A is expected. Tuesday, April 3 09:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks:  Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a moderated Q&A session at the Regional Economic Indicators Forum in Duluth, Minnesota. Audience Q&A is expected. 04:00 PM Total vehicle sales, March (GS 16.6mn, consensus 16.9mn, last 17.0mn): Domestic vehicle sales, March (GS 12.8mn, consensus 13.1mn, last 12.9mn) Wednesday, April 4 08:15 AM ADP employment report, March (GS +215k, consensus +205k, last +235k); We estimate a 215k increase in ADP payroll employment in March, reflecting stronger headline payrolls growth in February and lower jobless claims, two inputs utilized in the ADP model. While we believe the ADP employment report holds limited value for forecasting the BLS’s nonfarm payrolls report, we find that large ADP surprises vs. consensus forecasts are directionally correlated with nonfarm payroll surprises. 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, March final (last 52.9) 09:45 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard will give a speech at an event jointly hosted by the Arkansas Bankers Association and the Arkansas State Bank Department in Little Rock. Audience Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM Factory orders, February (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.7%, last -1.4%); Durable goods orders, February final (last +3.1%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February final (last +1.2%); Core capital goods orders, February final (last +1.8%); Core capital goods shipments, February final (last +1.4%): We estimate factory orders rose 1.7% in February following a 1.4% decrease in January. Core measures for durable goods were fairly strong in February, with gains in both core capital goods orders and core capital goods shipments. 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing, March (GS 58.0, consensus 59.0, last 59.5): We expect the ISM non-manufacturing survey to decrease 1.5pt to 58.0 in the March report. Regional non-manufacturing surveys all moved lower in March, led by declines in the New York Fed and Dallas Fed surveys. Overall, our nonmanufacturing survey tracker fell by 1.2pt to 57.1 in March. 11:00 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give a speech on diversity in economics at the Central State University’s Leaders, Executives, Entrepreneurs and Directors (LEED) Program, in Wilberforce, Ohio. Audience Q&A is expected. 02:00 PM FOMC minutes from the March 20-21 meeting: The FOMC raised the funds rate target range by 25bp at its March meeting and published a mixed but generally upbeat post-meeting statement. In the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the median dots continued to show three hikes in 2018 but now show 8 cumulative hikes in 2018-2020. In the minutes, we will look for an update of the Committee’s inflation outlook and views about the importance of the modest core inflation overshoot now projected in the SEP. Investors may also pay close attention to any discussion of potential changes to the post-meeting press conference format—in particular a possible increase in their frequency (though we agree with Chairman Powell that any such change would not have near-term policy implications).  Thursday, April 5 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 31 (GS 220k, last 215k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 24 (consensus 1,870k, last 1,871k); we estimate initial jobless claims moved up 5k in the week ending March 31 after claims fell to a new 49-year low. We note that the level of claims looks somewhat depressed and we see scope for a rebound. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – rebounded from very low levels in the prior week. 08:30 AM Trade balance, February (GS -$56.7bn, consensus -$56.5bn, last -$56.6bn): We estimate the trade deficit increased further in February. The Advance Economic Indicators report showed an unexpected increase in the goods trade deficit, likely reflecting the later than usual timing of Chinese New Year that also appeared to boost West Coast inbound container traffic in the month. Friday, April 6 8:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, March (GS +200k, consensus +189k, last +313k); Private payroll employment, March (GS +200k, consensus +195k, last +287k); Average hourly earnings (mom), March (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.15%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), March (GS +2.7%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.6%); Unemployment rate, March (GS 4.0%, consensus 4.0%, last 4.1%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 200k in March following a 313k gain in February. Our forecast reflects strong labor market fundamentals partially offset by a sizeable drag from weather, as snowfall was above-average in the first half of March. If realized, our forecast would represent a significant acceleration in underlying job growth from the 180k trend in the second half of 2017. We estimate the unemployment rate declined by one tenth to 4.0% (from 4.14% previously), as continuing claims resumed their downtrend between the survey reference periods. Additionally, surges in labor force participation as large as that seen last month (+0.3pp) are typically associated with a subsequent decline in the jobless rate. Finally, we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting somewhat favorable calendar effects. 01:30 PM Fed Chairman Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Chicago. Questions from a moderator are expected. 03:00 PM Consumer credit, February (consensus +$15.0bn, last +$13.9bn) Source: BofA, DB, GS  

13 марта, 14:32

Мировые центробанки пересматривают цели по инфляции

Москва, 13 марта - "Вести.Экономика". Многие мировые центробанки не смогли достичь своих инфляционных целей, поэтому некоторые из них рассматривают изменения в наборах инструментов, которые они используют для управления экономикой, пишет Bloomberg.

13 марта, 14:03

Мировые центробанки пересматривают цели по инфляции

Многие мировые центробанки не смогли достичь своих инфляционных целей, поэтому некоторые из них рассматривают изменения в наборах инструментов, которые они используют для управления экономикой, пишет Bloomberg.

13 марта, 14:03

Мировые центробанки пересматривают цели по инфляции

Многие мировые центробанки не смогли достичь своих инфляционных целей, поэтому некоторые из них рассматривают изменения в наборах инструментов, которые они используют для управления экономикой, пишет Bloomberg.

27 февраля, 18:00

Stock Market News for Feb 27, 2018

Benchmarks closed in the green on Monday for the third consecutive trading day

27 февраля, 09:40

Участники рынка ждут выступления главы ФРС Джерома Пауэлла

Во вторник, 27 февраля, на утренних торгах единая европейская валюта торгуется в небольшом плюсе, продолжая тенденцию прошлого дня. В понедельник валютная пара EUR/USD в течение торговой сессии формировала вялотекущее восходящее движение, что было связано с ожиданием выступления нового главы ФРС Джерома Пауэлла с полугодовым отчетом по денежно-кредитной политике перед Конгрессом США. Из важной макроэкономической статистики в США были опубликованы продажи нового жилья, которые в январе составили 593 тыс. против прогноза 645 тыс. Тем не менее, декабрьское значение было пересмотрено в сторону повышения с 625 тыс. до 643 тыс. Также разочаровали участников рынка данные по индексу экономической активности ФРБ Чикаго, который в январе снизился с 0,14 пункта до 0,12 пункта. Также вчера состоялось выступление главы ФРБ Сент-Луиса Джеймса Булларда, который сообщил, что значительное повышение процентной ставки может привести к слишком монетарной политике ФРС.

26 февраля, 17:31

Представитель ФРС Буллард: Активное повышение ставки может сделать политику слишком жесткой

Отвечая на вопросы аудитории на Конференции по экономической политике NABE в Вашингтоне, президент ФРС Сент-Луис Джеймс Буллард сказал, что низкая производительность США и глобальный спрос на безопасные активы удерживают нейтральную ставку низкой. Ключевые цитаты: Значительное повышение целевой процентной ставки с текущего уровня может привести к слишком жесткой политике ФРС Руководство должно наметить относительно ровный путь монетарной политики Необходимо, чтобы коммуникативная политика ФРС отражала нейтральный настрой Низкая производительность - это один из факторов, сдерживающих безработицу Рост доходности 10-летних трежерис отчасти вызван ростом инфляционных ожиданий Не слишком верит в дальнейший рост доходности 10-летних трежерис от текущих уровней Инфляционные ожидания немного выросли Лучшая практика заключается в регулярном пересмотре структуры инфляции Надеюсь, ФРС проведет обзор структуры Сторонники изменения структуры должны доказать, что это добавит преимущества Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

26 февраля, 17:00

Буллард не ждет роста нейтральной процентной ставки

Глава Федерального резервного банка (ФРБ) Сент-Луиса Джеймс Буллард заявил в понедельник, что он не считает, что так называемая нейтральная процентная ставка в США будет значительно повышаться в течение следующих двух лет, пишет MarketWatch.

26 февраля, 17:00

Буллард не ждет роста нейтральной процентной ставки

Глава Федерального резервного банка (ФРБ) Сент-Луиса Джеймс Буллард заявил в понедельник, что он не считает, что так называемая нейтральная процентная ставка в США будет значительно повышаться в течение следующих двух лет, пишет MarketWatch.

26 февраля, 16:59

Preview Of The Extremely Busy Week Ahead

After a relatively quiet, holiday-shortened week, the coming five days are shaping up to be volatile and extremely busy on the political, data and speaker front, where a barrage of economic updates is set to hit in both the US and across the globe, while Fed Chair Jay Powell will dominate the highlights on Tuesday with his testimony before the House, the week will culminate on March 4 with the Italian election and the SPD "Grand Coalition" vote. On the political side, while many expect a hung parliament in Italy and a small majority in favour of a Grand Coalition in Germany, uncertainty remains high. Meanwhile, in the US, Fed chair Powell's testimony will be closely watched on Tuesday, as will Draghi's appearance in Brussels on Monday. Core inflation in the euro area should rise slightly while confidence should fall, while spending in the US could see a weak start to the year. In the US: Fed Chair Powell's first semi-annual monetary policy testimony is on Tues. The speech will likely have a similar tone as the FOMC minutes, noting that growth has picked up and the FOMC has become more convinced of continued momentum. Powell is expected to sound cautiously optimistic, reiterating the need for patience when it comes to the hiking cycle. This will not be the place for Powell to hint at 4 hikes for this year. Meanwhile, there are a number of data releases this week, with the most important being Thursday’s personal income report. Real spending may have posted a drop in January, which would get Q1 real GDP off to a weak start versus consensus expectations of a sustained 3% pace this year. Euro area: Italian and German politics to take the limelight away from muted inflation This week looks set to be a long wait for the Italian election and the German SPD vote on a new Grand Coalition on Sunday. While most analysts expect a hung parliament in Italy and a small majority in favour in Germany, uncertainty remains high. Euro area headline inflation is likely to continue to decrease for a third straight month to 1.2% yoy in February, which would be the trough this year. Otherwise, credit growth should accelerate above 3.0% yoy. United Kingdom: Finally, the Brexit plan? The long-awaited speech by the Prime Minister, finally spelling out the “Road to Brexit: A Future Partnership” will surely be delivered this week. It was originally scheduled for last week, but, like so many of the UK’s plans on Brexit, has been delayed. Time is running out. Trade talks are meant to start after the 22, 23 March EU summit. Emerging Markets: There are monetary policy meetings in Korea, Israel and Ukraine. Sovereign rating reviews in Romania and Lebanon. Real GDP releases in Brazil, India and Poland. Bloomberg highlights the key weekly events: ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Brussels on Monday. Bank of Korea has policy decision and briefing on Tuesday. Powell testifies before a House panel on Tuesday. He’ll discuss the Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report and the state of the economy. Powell returns on March 1 before a Senate committee. Companies announcing earnings this week include: Vale, BASF, Standard Chartered, Bayer, Lowe’s, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Peugeot, WPP, and London Stock Exchange Group. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May delivers a speech on Britain’s relationship with the European Union after Brexit. A barrage of data is expected out of Japan including retail sales and industrial production Wednesday, and capital spending Thursday. In China, the official and Caixin purchasing managers’ indexes on Wednesday and Thursday respectively may show growth momentum slowed slightly in February, though the signal may be clouded by the holidays. Deutsche Bank with its usual breakdown of key daily events: Monday: We start the week with the UK’s January Finance loans for housing. Across the pond, the January Chicago Fed National activity, February Dallas Fed manufacturing index and new home sales data are also due. Onto other events, the ECB’s Draghi will addresses the EU Parliament while the incoming ECB VP Mr De Guindos will also attend his confirmation hearing at the Parliament. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Coeure, BOE’s Cunliffe and the Fed’s Bullard will speak. The UK’s opposition leader Corbyn is expected to set out the Labour Party’s Brexit position today with the party set to announce that they would stay in the Customs Union. This will cause problems for Mrs May who has said the country will leave. Parliament is generally in favour of staying so this raises the possibility of a lost vote somewhere down the line. Tuesday: Germany’s flash February CPI and the Euro area’s money supply and credit aggregates are due. Then a range of February confidence indicators are due for the Euro area, France and Italy. In the US, the February Richmond Fed and CB consumer confidence index are due. Further, a range of data including: January advanced goods trade balance, wholesale and retail inventories, durable and capital goods orders along with the December FHFA and S&P corelogic house price index are also due. Onto other events, the Fed’s Powell testifies in front of the House Financial services committee. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Weidmann and Mersch as well as BOE’s Sam Woods will speak. The Brookings Institution will host a conversation with the former Fed Governor Yellen and Bernanke. Finally, the EU negotiator Barnier will brief European affairs ministers. Wednesday: Overnight, Japan’s January IP and retail sales along with China’s February composite and manufacturing PMI will be out. In early morning, the GfK consumer confidence index for the UK (Feb.) and Germany (March) are also due. Later on, the flash February CPI readings for the Euro area, France and Italy will also be out. Elsewhere, France’s January PPI and 4Q GDP along with Germany’s February unemployment rate are also due. In the US, the February Chicago PMI, second reading on the 4Q GDP and Core PCE as well the January pending home sales data will be due. Onto other events, the EU negotiator Barnier will brief permanent EU representatives on Brexit and the withdrawal text is also expected to be published. Thursday: In Asia, the February manufacturing PMI for Japan (Nikkei) and China (Caixin) along with Japan’s consumer confidence index will be due. Then the final  readings on February manufacturing PMIs across Europe are also due. Elsewhere, the Euro area and Italy January unemployment rate will be out. In the UK, the January net consumer credit lending and mortgage approvals along with the February flash manufacturing PMI are all due. In the US, a range of data will be out, including: January PCE Core, February ISM manufacturing index, personal income and spending, weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims. Onto other events, the Fed’s Powell is back again in front of the US Senate while the US Transportation Secretary Ms Chao also testifies before the Senate on Trump’s infrastructure plan. The ECB’s Nouy and Lane along with the BOJ’s Kataoka will speak. Elsewhere, senior officials from Euro area finance ministries discuss the banking union and the future role of the ESM. Friday: Overnight, Japan’s January unemployment rate and February CPI will be out. Then the Euro area’s January PPI, Germany retail sales and the final reading for Italy’s 4Q GDP are due. In the US, the final reading for the February Uni. of Michigan’s consumer sentiment will also be out. Onto other events, the BOE’s Carney and the ECB’s Mersch will speak. The UK’s PM May is expected to outline her vision for a post Brexit trade deal with the EU. Then on Saturday, China’s annual national legislative meetings will start and expected to run for two more weeks. Finally, here is Goldman with a detailed look at the key US events together with consensus estimates: The key economic releases this week are the second vintage of Q4 GDP on Wednesday and ISM manufacturing on Thursday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Tuesday and Thursday. Monday, February 26 08:00 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the 34th annual NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. Audience Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM New home sales, January (GS +4.0%, consensus +3.6%, last -9.3%): We expect new home sales to rebound 4.0% in January, following a 9.3% drop last month that we believe was partially weather-related. We expect a favorable fundamental backdrop and the solid trend in single-family building permits to mitigate the negative impact of higher mortgage rates on new homes sales activity. 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, February (consensus +30.0, last +33.4) 03:15 PM Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles will give a speech titled “An Assessment of the U.S. Economy” at the 34th annual NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. Q&A is expected.  Tuesday, February 27 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, January preliminary (GS -1.3%, consensus -2.5%, last +2.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, January preliminary (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%); Core capital goods orders, January preliminary (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, January preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus flat, last +0.4%): We estimate durable goods orders fell 1.3% in January, reflecting a sharp pullback in commercial aircraft orders. However, we expect the core measures to firm, reflecting the timing of the Chinese New Year and the scope for core orders to rebound. Industrial production of the capex-sensitive business equipment was also quite strong in January. 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Report on Advance Economic Indicators; Advanced goods trade balance, January (GS -$71.0bn, consensus -$72.0bn, last -$72.3bn); Wholesale inventories, January preliminary (last +0.4%): We expect the goods trade deficit to narrow $1.3bn to $71.0bn in January, reflecting a pullback in imports related to the relatively late Chinese New Year, which is likely shifting the timing of imports from January to February/March and could also pull forward some capital goods exports. 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, December (GS +1.0%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.7%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to rise 1.0% in the December report following a 0.7% increase in the prior month. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which climbed to 6.4% in November. 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, December (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%): Consensus expects the FHFA house price index to rise 0.4% month-over-month, in line with the December pace. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices rose at a 6.5% pace in November. 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell appears before the House Financial Services Committee: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee in the first of two days of testimony to deliver the Fed’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and answer questions from lawmakers. The text of his prepared remarks will be released at 8:30 AM ahead of his testimony. 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, February (GS 127.0, consensus 126.0, last 125.4); We expect consumer confidence to move up 1.6pt to 127.0 in February. Our forecast reflects encouraging consumer sentiment measures in February as well as a rebound in the stock market. 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, February (consensus +15, last +14)  Wednesday, February 28 08:30 AM GDP (second), Q4 (GS +2.4%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.6%); Personal consumption, Q4 (GS +3.7%, consensus +3.6%, last 3.8%): We expect a two-tenths downward revision in the second estimate of Q4 GDP to +2.4%, featuring a one tenth downward revision to personal consumption (to +3.7%) and additional downward revisions to government spending and exports. 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, February (GS 65.5, consensus 65.0, last 65.7); We expect the Chicago PMI to decline 0.2pt to 65.5 after moving down 2.1pt in the January report. Our above-consensus forecast reflects the mixed performance of manufacturing surveys balanced against firmer business confidence reports and encouraging commentary from industrial firms. 10:00 AM Pending home sales, January (GS flat, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%): Regional housing data released so far were mixed in January. We estimate pending home sales were flat in January, and we note the current level looks elevated relative to other home sales measures. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag. Thursday, March 1 8:30 AM Personal income, January (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, January (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); PCE price index, January (GS +0.39%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%); Core PCE price index, January (GS +0.30%, consensus +0.3, last +0.2%); PCE price index (yoy), January (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.7%); Core PCE price index (yoy), January (GS +1.5%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.5%): Based on details in the PPI and CPI reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose +0.30% month-over-month in January, which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.5%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.39% in January, or 1.7% from a year earlier. We forecast a 0.3% increase in January personal income and a 0.2% gain in personal spending. 09:45 AM Markit US Manufacturing PMI, February (last 55.9) 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended February 24 (GS 225k, consensus 226k, last 222k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended February 17 (consensus 1,915k, last 1,875k); We estimate initial jobless claims moved back up 3k to 225k in the week ended February 24, after a sizeable decline in the prior week. The trend in initial claims appears to be falling, and we look for another low reading. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – declined sharply by 73k in the prior week. 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing, February (GS 59.2, consensus 59.0, last 59.1): Regional manufacturing surveys were mixed in February, and we expect ISM manufacturing to tick up to 59.2 in the February report. The Philly Fed (+3.6pt to 25.8) and Kansas City Fed (+1pt to 17) manufacturing sector surveys both strengthened while the Empire State manufacturing survey pulled back (-4.6pt to 13.1). On net, our manufacturing survey tracker—which is scaled to the ISM index—edged down 0.3pt to 58.7. 10:00 AM Construction spending, January (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.7%): We expect construction spending to increase 0.6% in February, following a 0.7% increase in December that reflected stronger total private construction and public nonresidential construction activity. 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell appears before the Senate Banking Committee: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee in the second day of testimony to deliver the Fed’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and answer questions from lawmakers. 11:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley will give a speech on trade and globalization at an event hosted by the Central Bank of Brazil. Audience Q&A is expected. 04:00 PM Total vehicle sales, February (GS 17.3mn, consensus 17.2mn, last 17.1mn): Domestic vehicle sales, February (consensus 13.2mn, last 13.1mn)  Friday, March 2 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, February final (GS 100.0, consensus 99.0, last 99.9): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge up 0.1pt to 100 in the February final estimate, reflecting continued improvement among more timely measures of consumer confidence as well as the favorable stock market performance over the last two weeks. The University of Michigan’s survey of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations was stable at 2.5% in the preliminary February report. Source: SocGen, Deutsche bank, BofA, Goldman

26 февраля, 14:05

Сегодня в США ожидается публикация одного важного макроэкономического показателя

В понедельник, 26 февраля, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация лишь одного важного макроэкономического показателя, а именно продажи нового жилья (в 18:00 МСК). Согласно нашим прогнозам, показатель в январе составил 645 тыс. Из второстепенных данных стоит отметить индекс экономической активности ФРБ Чикаго за февраль. Также сегодня состоятся выступления представителей ФРС, а именно Джеймса Булларда и Рэндала Кварлса. Сегодня после закрытия рынка будут опубликованы финансовые результаты Palo Alto Networks и Tenet Helthcare. К 14:00 МСК фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 торгуются с повышением на 0,17%.

26 февраля, 13:54

Сегодня в США ожидается публикация одного важного макроэкономического показателя

В понедельник, 26 февраля, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация лишь одного важного макроэкономического показателя, а именно продажи нового жилья (в 18:00 МСК). Согласно нашим прогнозам, показатель в январе составил 645 тыс. Из второстепенных данных стоит отметить индекс экономической активности ФРБ Чикаго за февраль. Также сегодня состоятся выступления представителей ФРС, а именно Джеймса Булларда и Рэндала Кварлса. Сегодня после закрытия рынка будут опубликованы финансовые результаты Palo Alto Networks и Tenet Helthcare. К 14:00 МСК фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 торгуются с повышением на 0,17%.

26 февраля, 00:30

Статистика. Чего сегодня ожидать?

В понедельник, 26 февраля, ожидается выход лишь одного отслеживаемого нами макроэкономического показателя. Так, в 18:00 МСК в Японии будут опубликованы январские данные по продажам нового жилья. Ожидается, что в январе показатель увеличился с 0,625 млн до 0,645 млн. Кроме того, сегодня выступят член Исполнительного комитета ЕЦБ Бенуа Кере (в 13:00 МСК), представитель ФРС Джеймс Буллард (в 16:00 МСК), глава ЕЦБ Марио Драги (в 17:00 МСК) и вице-президент ФРС по надзору Рэндал Кварлс (в 23:15 МСК).

23 февраля, 12:39

Заявления Булларда способствовали росту мировых рынков, не успела отреагировать Европа

США В четверг, 22 февраля, ключевые фондовые индексы Соединенных Штатов Америки завершили торги преимущественно на положительной территории благодаря заявлениям Булларда, а также воодушевляющей статистике. По словам главы ФРБ Сент-Луиса Джеймса Булларда, американскому регулятору стоит быть более осторожным и не повышать ставки слишком быстро, так как это может привести к ощутимому замедлению темпов роста экономики страны. "Предположение, что мы должны повысить ставку на 100 базисных пунктов в 2018 году, кажется для меня чрезмерным", - сказал Буллард. Что касается статистики, то количество первичных обращений за пособиями по безработице составило за минувшую неделю 222000, тогда как аналитики прогнозировали 230000, а индекс опережающих индикаторов увеличился в январе на 1,0%, хотя аналитики ожидали +0,7% после +0,6% в декабре. По итогам

22 февраля, 20:52

Американские индексы торгуются в "зеленой" зоне

В четверг, 22 февраля, ключевые фондовые индексы Соединенных Штатов Америки в первой половине сессии демонстрируют положительную динамику, причем фаворитами торгов являются акции технологических и промышленных компаний. При этом беспокойства на тему "минуток ФРС" несколько ослабли на фоне комментариев президента ФРБ Сент-Луиса Джеймса Булларда, заявившего, что центробанку стоит быть более осторожным и не повышать ставки слишком быстро, так как это несет угрозу ощутимого замедления темпов роста экономики. Вышедшие макроэкономические данные, между тем, превысили прогнозы аналитиков. Так, количество первичных обращений за пособиями по безработице за неделю снизилось с 229 тыс. до 222 тыс., хотя ожидалось 230 тыс. При этом темпы роста индекса опережающих индикаторов за январь ускорились до 1,0% по сравнению с повышением на 0,6% месяцем ранее и среднерыночными ожиданиями расширения показателя на 0,7%.

22 февраля, 15:10

Bullard Calms Markets: "Everything Needs To Be Perfect" For Fed 4 Rate Hikes

Yesterday, what many strategists had believed would be a quiet release of minutes from the Fed's Jan. 31 meeting was, in reality, anything but. Once the market had deemed that the Fed had released another batch of neutral "goldilocks" minutes, the Dow powered higher, climbing 300 points before, upon closer reading, investors abruptly changed their minds and decided that four interest-rate hikes in 2018 (with Goldman even saying 5 are possible) - one more than the central bank had anticipated in December - was the most likely scenario. This sent stocks spiraling lower during the last 90 minutes of trading, forcing another close in the red. So perhaps it's unsurprising, given the events of yesterday, that St. Louis Fed President (and FOMC non-voter in 2018) James Bullard appeared on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning to try and talk the market back from the ledge. Bullard is one of the most - if not the most - dovish regional Fed presidents, and is best known for casually hinting that QE4 is just around the corner any time stocks suffer a sharp selloff. Granted he could not do that this time, but he did push as far as he could, and futures traders, desperate for good news after Goldman Sachs anticipated last night that the Fed could even hike rates five times this year, bid the market higher after the regional Fed president said that "everything would need to go perfectly" for the central bank to hike rates four times this year. Bullard told CNBC that the central bank needs to be careful raising interest rates this year, lest a policy mistake choke off economic growth and trigger the beginning of the next (long overdue) downturn. He cautioned that the Fed must continue to take its cues from the economy, which, despite the inflation furor triggered by signs of rising wages earlier this month, is still exhibiting only minimal price gains. The Fed should shift from "reactive" to "proactive" only if inflation reaches or surpasses its 2% target with further price gains expected. The inflation story still has "a way to go", Bullard added. Market-implied expectations for the number of rate-hikes in 2018 surged to new cycle highs (2.82 hikes) shortly before yesterday's minutes were released. To Bullard's credit, the Fed still is completely clueless why wages aren't rising faster, as the excerpt from yesterday's minutes revealed: During their discussion of labor market conditions, participants expressed a range of views about recent wage developments. While some participants heard more reports of wage pressures from their business contacts over the intermeeting period, participants generally noted few signs of a broad-based pickup in wage growth in available data. With regard to how firms might use part of their tax savings to boost compensation, a few participants suggested that such a boost could be in the form of onetime bonuses or variable pay rather than a permanent increase in wage structures. It was noted that the pace of wage gains might not increase appreciably if productivity growth remains low. That said, a number of participants judged that the continued tightening in labor markets was likely to translate into faster wage increases at some point. And judging by all US equity futures turning green after Bullard's appearance, it appears that mission was again accomplished.

07 февраля, 20:00

Причин для беспокойства нет

Распродажа на фондовых рынках, главной причиной которой стало закрытие коротких позиций в индексе волатильности VIX, похоже, пока остановилась. Индекс MSCI EM нащупал поддержку на уровне 50-дневной скользящей средней, которая обеспечивала ему техническую поддержку с начала 2017 г. Глава ФРБ Сент-Луиса Джеймс Буллард утверждает, что это была самая предсказуемая коррекция в истории, но это спорный вопрос. Буллард выступает за длительное сохранение низких процентных ставок, хотя можно утверждать, что именно ультрамягкая денежно-кредитная политика ФРС способствовала поддержанию финансового цикла, ведущего к образованию пузырей. Помимо этого, Федрезерв, беря за основу при принятии решений по денежно-кредитной политике финансовые условия в США, создал порочную практику, когда распродажа на рынках воспринимается как повод для отсрочки повышения ставок, а рост котировок позволяет ФРС их повышать.

07 февраля, 17:37

"This Wasn't A Big Drop": Dudley Reveals That The "Powell Put" Is Far Lower

For those hoping that the "Powell Put" is struck at least as high as Yellen's, The New York Fed's Bill Dudley may have just dashed those hopes a little... As a reminder,on her way out, former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told CBS that the market's valuations were high but said she wasn't sure if markets were currently in a bubble. "Well, I don't want to say too high. But I do want to say high. Price/earnings ratios are near the high end of their historical ranges," Yellen said. "Now, is that a bubble or is too high? And there it's very hard to tell. But it is a source of some concern that asset valuations are so high." Earlier today, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan joined a chorus of central bank officials who have called the stock market overvalued at recent levels. Kaplan said the recent selloff is "basically a market event and these things can be healthy." St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the recent market selloff was predictable because of the elevated valuation of tech stocks. "This is the most predicted selloff of all time because the markets have been up so much and they have had so many days in a row without meaningful down days,'' Bullard said, according to the Financial Review. "So it is probably not surprising that something that has gone up 40% like the S&P tech sector would at some point have a selloff. Before there was a selloff, people said repeatedly some day this will sell off." The fact that there was a selloff wasn't concerning to Bullard, but he admitted that the speed of the decline was probably aided by the role algorithmic tradings plays in the market. "What is more interesting is it has been very fast, it's been possibly aided and abetted by technical trading -- algorithmic trading. I'd be interested to see an analysis and see what role that played," Bullard said. And then, the New York Fed's Bill Dudley says an equity rout like the one that occurred in recent days "has virtually no consequence for the economic outlook." Adding that, if it continued to go down sharply, “that would affect my view,” he says at event in New York, but "this wasn't that big of a bump in the stock market" and " is not a big story for central bankers yet." “It’s still up sharply from where it was a year ago” In other words, it's going to take more than a 13% plunge in 5 days to stir Jay Powell's Plunge Protection Team into action...

07 февраля, 15:09

Federal Reserve Is Still Expected To Raise Rates Next Month

The stock market turbulence in recent days has rattled investors, but the Federal Reserve remains on track to lift interest rates at the March policy meeting, according to this morning’s implied forecast via Fed fund futures. The probability of a rate hike is 69%, according to CME data in early trading on Wednesday (Feb. 7). […]

07 февраля, 10:55

"Евробыки" сумели нанести ответный удар

В среду, 7 февраля, на утренних торгах единая европейская валюта торгуется на положительной территории, продолжая тенденцию прошлого дня. Во вторник валютная пара EUR/USD в первой половине дня находилась под давлением, однако во второй половине сессии "евробыки" сумели перехватить инициативу и нивелировали все утренние потери. Так, вчера состоялось выступление представителя ФРС Джеймса Булларда, который сообщил, что денежно-кредитная политика близка к нейтральному уровню и пока нет необходимости в дальнейшем повышении процентных ставок. Также он считает, что темпы роста экономики США в 2018 году могут замедлиться, несмотря на принятие налоговой реформы в стране, но при этом отметил, что инфляционные ожидания выросли. Из важной макроэкономической статистики в Германии были опубликованы промышленные заказы, которые в декабре резко выросли на 3,8%, тогда как аналитики ожидали увеличение показателя на 0,7%.

14 ноября 2014, 20:59

Буллард: ФРС больше не может сохранять низкие ставки

Фото: Jerome Favre / Bloomberg Глава Федерального резервного банка Сент-Луиса Джеймс Буллард заявил, что с учетом поступающих данных по американской экономике, сохранение процентных ставок на минимальном уровне со стороны ФРС США больше не является оправданной мерой. Комментарии главы ФРБ Сент-Луиса прозвучали в рамках его выступления на конференции, которую в пятницу, 14 ноября, провела региональная торговая палата Сент-Луиса. Они также опубликованы на сайте ФРБ Сент-Луиса. Буллард отметил, что сохранение низких темпов инфляции (которые остаются ниже целевого ориентира ФРС) в условиях заметного улучшения ситуации на рынке труда США не может расцениваться как оправдание для дальнейшего сохранения процентных ставок на минимальном уровне.  "Федеральный комитет по открытому рынку уже указывал на то, что процентные ставки, скорее всего, будут повышены в следующем году. Выбор более конкретной даты для повышения ставок будет зависеть от поступающих макроэкономических показателей в ближайшие кварталы. Иногда аналитики отмечают, что текущий низкий уровень инфляции может стать причиной, по которой ФРС, возможно, сохранит процентные ставки на нулевом уровне в течение более длительного периода времени. Однако, хотя низкий уровень инфляции и может подразумевать немного более низкий уровень процентных ставок, чем можно было бы ожидать в нормальных условиях, однако, в целом, низкие темпы инфляции не являются оправданием для сохранения процентных ставок на нулевом уровне. При этом, стоит отметить, что ситуация на рынке труда США продолжает улучшаться и ряд показателей приближаются к значениям, которые можно расценивать как нормальные параметры функционирования экономики (ряд показателей даже превышает эти уровни). Нормальное состояние рынка труда США исторически не ассоциировалось с сохранением процентных ставок на нулевом уровне. Это говорит о том, что в течение следующего года будет все сложнее приводить ситуацию на рынке труда в качестве фактора в пользу сохранения сверхнизких процентных ставок".