15 ноября, 14:19

Нефтяники приспосабливаются к миру

По словам руководителя BP Боба Дадли, сегодня крайне необходимо пристально следить за ростом, поскольку речь идет о решении актуального вопроса с углеродными выбросами. А наряду с этим, подчеркнул эксперт, следует продолжать предпринимать попытки удовлетворения все время растущих в мире потребностей в энергии.

14 ноября, 23:20

Экономист Джим О'Нил о том, почему вы должны перестать бояться массивного долга Китая

Известный экономист Джим О'Нил говорит, что инвесторы должны игнорировать растущий долг в Китае, подчеркивая различные положительные факторы для второй по величине экономики в мире. "Я не могу волноваться по поводу долговой проблемы", - сказал Джим О'Нил, бывший председатель Goldman Sachs Asset Management, в интервью CNBC.. "Не в последнюю очередь потому, что в последние несколько месяцев есть свидетельства того, что рост долга замедлился довольно резко, и с ростом номинального ВВП, я думаю, что даже некоторые из явных пессимистов в отношении Китая признают, что масштаб долговой проблемы немного снизился", - добавил О'Нил. Экономика, финансируемая кредитами, подвергается критике за то, что она представляет один из самых больших рисков для мировой экономики. Китай хочет удвоить размер своей экономики в период с 2010 по 2020 год, даже если это означает рост задолженности в нефинансовом секторе. Международный валютный фонд в августе заявил, что "международный опыт свидетельствует о том, что рост кредитования в Китае находится на опасной траектории, с повышенными рисками разрушительной корректировки и/или заметного замедления роста". Согласно прогнозам МВФ, задолженность нефинансового сектора, включая домохозяйства, корпорации и государственный долг, достигнет почти 300 процентов от ВВП к 2022 году Но, по словам О'Нила, вопрос задолженности Китая не является такой большой проблемой, учитывая, что "это страна с огромными сбережениями". Кроме того, О'Нил заявил, что мощь китайской экономики выходит далеко за пределы ее границ и в конечном итоге может повлиять на денежно-кредитную политику в Европе. "Самое интересное, что я видел в этом году, - это то, что к концу прошлого года ключевым торговым партнером Германии оказался Китая", - сказал О'Нил, подчеркнув, что Китай впервые обогнал Францию ​​и США. О'Нил также добавил, что если китайская экономика не увидит замедления роста до 6,5%, руководство подумает об ужесточении денежно-кредитной политики в следующем году и "учитывая важность Китая для всего остального мира, такое решение будет иметь огромный эффект". Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

23 октября, 10:04

Links and Such for the Week of October 22, 2017

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**Must-Reads**: * **Paul Krugman**: [Some Misleading Geometry on Corporate Taxes (Wonkish)](https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/10/21/some-misleading-geometry-on-corporate-taxes-wonkish/): "There’s a fairly simple geometric way to see where the optimistic view that cutting corporate taxes is great for wages comes from... * **Jason Furman**: [Wage Increases Under the Unified Framework](https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/921393732959784960): Some talk lately of Ramsey models and their implications for wage increases under the Unified Framework (warning: irrelevant nerdy thread)... * **Noah Smith**: [Taylor and His Rule Are Not What the Fed Needsg](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-19/taylor-and-his-rule-are-not-what-the-fed-needs): "How much should the Fed worry about inflation versus unemployment?... * **Ryan Avent**: [How should recessions be fought when interest rates are low?](https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21730416-both-monetary-policy-and-fiscal-policy-answers-remain-contentious-how-should): "ONE day... bad news will blow in... a new recession will begin... * **Zeynep Tufekci**: [On Twitter: "Facebook and Google helped them better target fear-mongering videos](https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/920638086740152320): "Facebook and Google helped them better target fear-mongering videos showing 'France and Germany overrun by sharia law'—to get the ad money... * **Melissa S. Kearney**: [How Should Governments Address Inequality?](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2017-10-16/how-should-governments-address-inequality): "**Putting Piketty Into Practice**... * **Raymond Fisman, Keith Gladston, Ilyana Kuziemko, and Suresh Naidu**: [Do Americans want to tax capital? Evidence from online surveys](http://equitablegrowth.org/working-papers/americans-tax-capital/): "We provide, to our knowledge, the first investigation of individuals’ preferences over jointly taxing income and wealth... * **Danny Quah**: [When Open...

Выбор редакции
29 сентября, 02:01

Northern powerhouse 'back on Theresa May's agenda'

Former commercial secretary to the Treasury says northern productivity being encouraged since PM’s closest advisers quit after electionTheresa May is “allowing and even almost lightly encouraging” more focus on the northern powerhouse since her two closest advisers quit after the election, one of the plan’s architects has said.Jim O’Neill, the former commercial secretary to the Treasury, said the plan to rebalance the UK’s economy appeared to be back on the government’s agenda following the resignation of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill in June. Continue reading...

20 мая, 11:29

О'Нил: не стоит недооценивать экономику еврозоны

Эксперты с определенной периодичностью публикую прогнозы, в рамках которых Евросоюз должен распасться, или же евро должен рухнуть, или же произойти еще какой-нибудь экономический коллапс. Однако, как пишет в свой статье на Project Syndicate известный британский экономист Джим О'Нил, не стоит относиться несерьезно к экономическим перспективам ЕС и еврозоны.

20 мая, 00:23

О'Нил: не стоит недооценивать экономику еврозоны

С начала долгового кризиса в Греции, Евросоюз так и не может выбраться из негативного информационного фона.

20 мая, 00:23

О'Нил: не стоит недооценивать экономику еврозоны

С начала долгового кризиса в Греции Евросоюз так и не может выбраться из негативного информационного фона.

11 мая, 06:03

Опасения по поводу роста экономики Китая «полностью раздуты»

Бывший председатель Goldman Sachs Asset Management Джим О'Нил заявил, что он не видит никаких признаков кризиса на фоне намеков замедления экономического роста Китая. "Китая экономика не показывает никаких признаков кризиса и разговоры об этом по-прежнему полностью раздуты," заявил в ответ на вопросы по электронной почте. "Китай продемонстрировал несколько раз, что в стране хорошо идут дела и экономика справляется с циклическими задачами. Возможно, если денежно-кредитная и фискальная политика других стран была скорректирована с успехом Китая, мир был бы гораздо сильнее", - добавил О'Нил. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade со ссылкой на BloombergИсточник: FxTeam

19 апреля, 05:54

О'Нил: Мэй хочет мандат на жесткий Brexit

Москва, 18 апреля - "Вести.Экономика". Известный британский экономист Джим О'Нил отметил, что решение о проведении досрочных выборов в Британии является "политическим оппортунизмом" Терезы Мэй и Консервативной партии, а также отметил, что валютный рынок, возможно, ошибочно интерпретирует его последствия.

18 апреля, 22:41

О'Нил: Мэй хочет мандат на жесткий Brexit

Известный британский экономист Джим О'Нил отметил, что решение о проведении досрочных выборов в Британии является "политическим оппортунизмом" Терезы Мэй и Консервативной партии, а также отметил, что валютный рынок ошибочно интерпретирует его последствия.

18 апреля, 22:41

О'Нил: Мэй хочет мандат на жесткий Brexit

Известный британский экономист Джим О'Нил отметил, что решение о проведении досрочных выборов в Британии является "политическим оппортунизмом" Терезы Мэй и Консервативной партии, а также отметил, что валютный рынок, ошибочно интерпретирует его последствия.

30 марта, 17:48

The nominee to run America’s drug regulator is a sound choice

WHEN the names of potential candidates for the new head of America’s regulatory agency for drugs, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), were first circulated, you could almost hear the sound of jaws hitting desks throughout the pharmaceuticals industry. One contender was Jim O’Neill, head of Mithril Capital Management, an investment firm, who is such a libertarian that he doesn’t think the FDA should insist that medicines have to work. Another was Balaji Srinivasan, an entrepreneur from Silicon Valley, who thought roughly the same. Removing such a core regulation might seem appealing to business. In fact, the idea of not approving drugs for efficacy is as unwelcome to the industry as it is to doctors and patients. It spends billions of dollars every year on research to deliver better treatments; this would be impossible to justify if drugs had merely to be safe. Patients, meanwhile, would face the awful prospect of having to identify which life-saving medications worked. So, when the name of the FDA nominee was announced in March, there was widespread relief. Scott Gottlieb (pictured) a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative...

11 марта, 03:19

Trump Nominates FDA Head With Deep Ties To Drug Companies

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); WASHINGTON, March 10 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump has chosen Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a conservative health policy expert with deep ties to the pharmaceutical industry, to lead the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, a White House official said on Friday. If confirmed by the Senate, Gottlieb would be in charge of implementing Trump’s plan to dramatically cut regulations governing food, drugs, cosmetics, dietary supplements and tobacco. Gottlieb is well known on Capitol Hill, where he has testified multiple times on hot-button health issues, including complex drug pricing matters, and is viewed favorably by drug companies and pharmaceutical investors. A former FDA official, Gottlieb also sits on the board of pharmaceutical companies. “Thank God it’s Gottlieb,” Brian Skorney, an investment analyst at Robert W. Baird, wrote in a research note. “We view this as a favorable development for the sector.” Gottlieb, 44, is a resident fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute think tank and a partner at a large venture capital fund. He is a former FDA deputy commissioner who has frequently advocated a loosening of requirements needed for approval of new medical products. “Scott knows how the agency works and he will move it forwards, though maybe not always in ways the agency is comfortable with,” said John Taylor, a lawyer and president of compliance and regulatory affairs with the consulting firm Greenleaf Health and a former acting FDA deputy commissioner. Gottlieb was chosen over Jim O’Neill, a libertarian investor close to Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel, a PayPal co-founder who now advises Trump on technology and science matters. O’Neill’s stated view that drugs should be approved before being proven effective generated widespread alarm. Gottlieb, who declined to comment on the nomination, is unlikely to up-end the FDA in the way O’Neill might have, but he is nonetheless expected to bring significant change, including moving the agency to increase flexibility in the clinical trial development process. In this he will be supported by the recently passed 21st Century Cures Act which instructs theFDA among other things to consider the use of “real world evidence” to support new drug applications. This could include anecdotal data, observational studies and patient reports “People don’t want to take chances with safety, but there’s increasingly some clamor to be more flexible on the efficacy side,” said Kathleen Sanzo, who leads the FDA practice at the law firm Morgan, Lewis & Bockius. “You need to have some signal of efficacy. The question is, how much?” One of Gottlieb’s priorities will likely be to streamline the process for approving generic versions of complex, difficult-to-copy therapeutics. He has stated publicly that he does not believe the FDA has good tools or policies to move such products and has advocated the creation of different approval standards. A survey conducted by Mizuho Securities USA Inc of 53 pharmaceutical executives found that 72 percent favored Gottlieb over other potential candidates. Many described him as knowledgeable, experienced and balanced. “He will be a pragmatic leader with an eye toward both expedited approvals and safety,” one executive wrote. Others were less sanguine, citing his deep ties to industry, including his seat on multiple pharmaceutical company boards, as potential conflicts of interest. Dr. Michael Carome, director of Public Citizen’s Health Research Group, said Gottlieb “has spent most of his career dedicated to promoting the financial interests of the pharmaceutical industry.” If confirmed, he added, “he will have to be recused from key decisions time and time again.”   CLINICAL TRIAL FLEXIBILITY The FDA has attempted to push back against moves to sideline randomized clinical trials, long considered the gold standard. In January it issued a report documenting 22 cases in which drugs that appeared to show promise in early trials turned out to be either ineffective or unsafe or both in larger trials. But it has already moved to decrease the requirements for proving that a drug works. Last year, Dr. Janet Woodcock, the agency’s powerful head of pharmaceuticals, ordered the approval of Sarepta Therapeutics Inc’s drug to treat Duchenne muscular dystrophy based on little more than a hint of efficacy. In doing so she overrode the recommendation of a panel of outside advisors and top scientists at the agency and set what some say is a precedent for approving drugs based on minimal data. “How can you say it’s OK for this company but not that company?” Mark Mansour, a partner with the law firm Mayer Brown LLP said. “The administration is going to be pushing for quicker approval of drugs for all sorts of diseases with similar, vociferous patient populations who are crying out for a solution.” Other companies that may benefit from Gottlieb’s presence are manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems such as e-cigarettes. The American Enterprise Institute has consistently argued that there is no evidence to show that the risk of vaping comes near to the risk of smoking. Between 2005 and 2007 he was FDA deputy commissioner for medical and scientific affairs. Previously he was a senior advisor to the commissioner and acted as the agency’s director of medical policy development. (Reporting by Toni Clarke; Editing by Alistair Bell and Lisa Shumaker) -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

10 марта, 22:55

Donald Trump Poised To Nominate Scott Gottlieb To Head FDA: Reports

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House is expected as early as Friday to nominate Dr. ScottGottlieb, a physician and conservative health policy expert, to lead the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, sources familiar with the matter said. If confirmed by the Senate, Gottlieb would be in charge of implementing President Donald Trump’s plan to dramatically cut regulations governing food, drugs, cosmetics, dietary supplements and tobacco. Gottlieb, 44, is a resident fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute think tank and a partner at a large venture capital fund. He is a former FDA deputy commissioner who has frequently advocated a loosening of requirements needed for approval of new medical products. Gottlieb is well-known on Capitol Hill, where he has testified multiple times on hot-button health issues, including complex drug pricing matters, and is viewed favorably by the pharmaceuticals industry. A survey conducted by Mizuho Securities USA Inc of 53 pharmaceutical executives found that 72 percent favored Gottlieb over other potential candidates. Many described him as knowledgeable, experienced and balanced. “He will be a pragmatic leader with an eye toward both expedited approvals and safety,” one executive wrote. Between 2005 and 2007 Gottlieb was FDA deputy commissioner for medical and scientific affairs. Previously he was a senior advisor to the commissioner and acted as the agency’s director of medical policy development. “Scott knows how the agency works and he will move it forwards, though maybe not always in ways the agency is comfortable with,” said John Taylor, a lawyer with the FDA consulting firm Greenleaf Health and a former acting FDA deputy commissioner. Gottlieb was chosen over Jim O’Neill, a libertarian investor close to Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel, a PayPal co-founder who now advises Trump on technology and science matters. O’Neill’s stated view that drugs should be approved before being proven effective generated widespread alarm. One of Gottlieb’s areas of interest is streamlining the process for approving generic versions of complex, difficult-to-copy therapeutics. He has stated publicly that he does not believe the FDA has good tools or policies to move such products and has advocated the creation of different approval standards. CLINICAL TRIAL FLEXIBILITY Gottlieb declined to comment on the pending nomination, which was going through last-minute vetting on Friday. He is expected to encourage the agency to increase flexibility in the clinical trial development process. In this he will be supported by the recently passed 21st Century Cures Act which instructs the FDA among other things to consider the use of “real world evidence” to support new drug applications. This could include anecdotal data, observational studies and patient reports. “People don’t want to take chances with safety, but there’s increasingly some clamor to be more flexible on the efficacy side,” said Kathleen Sanzo, who leads the FDA practice at the law firm Morgan, Lewis & Bockius. “You need to have some signal of efficacy. The question is, how much?” The FDA has attempted to push back against moves to sideline randomized clinical trials, long considered the gold standard. In January it issued a report documenting 22 cases in which drugs that appeared to show promise in early trials turned out to be either ineffective or unsafe or both in larger trials. Critics say moves to water down clinical trials could jeopardize patient safety. “Destroying medication and device approval standards at the FDA will have devastating, life-and-death consequences for hundreds of thousands of Americans,” Robert Weissman, president of the watchdog Public Citizen, said recently in a statement. The agency has already taken multiple steps to speed the approval process, though not enough for some. “They can always do more.” Brent Saunders, chief executive of Allergan Plc said. Last year, Dr. Janet Woodcock, the agency’s powerful head of pharmaceuticals ordered the approval of Sarepta Therapeutics Inc’s drug to treat Duchenne muscular dystrophy based on little more than a hint of efficacy. In doing so she overrode the recommendation of a panel of outside advisors and top scientists at the agency and set what some say is a precedent for approving drugs based on minimal data. “How can you say it’s ok for this company but not that company?” Mark Mansour, a partner with the law firm Mayer Brown LLP said. “The administration is going to be pushing for quicker approval of drugs for all sorts of diseases with similar, vociferous patient populations who are crying out for a solution.” Other companies that may benefit from Gottlieb’s presence are manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems such as e-cigarettes. The American Enterprise Institute has consistently argued that there is no evidence to show that the risk of vaping comes near to the risk of smoking.   (Reporting by Toni Clarke; Editing by Meredith Mazzilli and Alistair Bell) -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

10 марта, 22:29

Trump taps Gottlieb for FDA commissioner

Donald Trump will nominate Scott Gottlieb, a conservative drug industry insider and former FDA and CMS official, to serve as FDA commissioner, industry sources close to the White House tell POLITICO.Gottlieb, a physician, is a far more traditional pick to lead the Food and Drug Administration than other candidates Trump had considered. One, Silicon Valley investor Jim O’Neill, had shocked public health advocates with his comments that the FDA should approve drugs without proof they worked. However, Gottlieb’s close ties with industry are likely to draw Senate scrutiny. A classic Washington insider who has occupied conservative turf in the health care debate for two decades, Gottlieb is a board member or adviser to various drug companies and plays a role in funding the industry through a venture capital firm, New Enterprise Associates.If confirmed, Gottlieb would play a major role in the Trump’s administration’s efforts to speed up the regulatory approval of drugs. Trump, who’s been critical of high drug prices, has often argued that shortening the FDA approval process and cutting regulations would bring prices down.The White House could announce Gottlieb's nomination as soon as Friday.The FDA, which oversees the review and approval of drugs, vaccines and medical devices, and the regulation of tobacco, food and cosmetics, has an annual budget of $5 billion, close to 15,000 employees, and plays a regulatory role in about a fifth of the economy. A slew of FDA user fee programs, in which industry essentially funds half the FDA budget, are up for reauthorization in the fall; it would fall upon Gottlieb, if approved, to shepherd the agreements — negotiated under his predecessor — through Congress.Gottlieb has broad experience in regulating health care and working for the industry. He received nearly $200,000 in payments in 2015 from eight pharmaceutical companies, according to federal database tracking drug industry payments. All were classified as “general” payments, meaning they were for things like travel and lodging, consulting or speaking fees. In 2014, he received more than $160,000 in general payments from companies.Gottlieb has been on GlaxoSmithKline’s research and development board since 2010, according to his résumé, and previously served on its oncology board. He advises Bristol Meyers Squibb on its cancer drugs and Cell Biotherapy, an oncology start-up. Gottlieb was a senior adviser to Vertex Pharmaceuticals, maker of expensive cystic fibrosis drugs, from 2009 through 2016. He holds seats on the boards of drug companies Daiichi Sankyo and Tolero Pharmaceuticals; medical lab company American Pathology Partners; MedAvante, a contract research organization, and Glytech, which makes an FDA-approved insulin dosing support system. He also has served on the board of insurance and medical diagnostic companies.Gottlieb was the FDA’s deputy commissioner for medical and scientific affairs from 2005 to 2007, and chief policy adviser to the CMS administrator in 2004, during implementation of Medicare Part D. Earlier, he was a senior adviser and director of medical policy development at the FDA, where he worked on issues like orphan drugs and combination products. Gottlieb has long been a resident fellow at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute. He serves on the Federal Health IT Policy Committee, which makes recommendations to the Department of Health and Human Services Office for Healthcare Information Technology. He practices medicine at New York University where he is a clinical assistant professor. Gottlieb's free-market health policy positions are well known, thanks to regular op-eds in The Wall Street Journal and Forbes, and FDA-related testimony to Congress. This past fall, he gave testimony criticizing the FDA’s regulation of generic drugs, during a hearing on pharmaceutical industry competition occasioned by the rising prices of the EpiPen.

04 марта, 07:59

Стоит ли человечеству жить вечно: паранойя, бесконечные хобби и другие побочные эффекты бессмертия

Автор журнала The Atlantic побеседовала со сторонниками и противниками движения за продление человеческой жизни, которое объединяет профессоров, миллиардеров Кремниевой долины и даже одного кандидата в президенты Америки. Редакция vc.ru публикует перевод материала.

26 февраля, 15:06

Donald Trump's 'shadow president' in Silicon Valley

Billionaire iconoclast Peter Thiel's fingerprints are all over the administration.

23 февраля, 01:00

LIFE AMONG THE TRANSHUMANISTS. Well, I don’t exactly want to live forever. Just a lot longer and h…

LIFE AMONG THE TRANSHUMANISTS. Well, I don’t exactly want to live forever. Just a lot longer and healthier. Plus, more reason to like Trump: “Under President Donald Trump, the quest for immortality might pick up steam: Among the candidates he is reportedly considering to head the Food and Drug Administration is Jim O’Neill, who sits […]

09 февраля, 00:37

Удивительная стойкость мировой экономики

Мировая экономика находится в довольно уязвимом положении, особенно после громких политических потрясений, таких как Brexit и победа Трампа на выборах в США.

09 февраля, 00:37

Удивительная стойкость мировой экономики

Мировая экономика находится в довольно уязвимом положении, особенно после громких политических потрясений, таких как Brexit и победа Трампа на выборах в США.

11 апреля 2014, 22:47

О замедлении, сближении и декаплинге развитых и недоразвитых

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Появилась очередная серия докладов МВФ с прогнозами. По этому поводу есть несколько записей в блоге. Один из самых известных рисунков показывает темпы роста ВВП стран с развитой экономикой и БРИК/МИНТ и Ко., которых 16. Это из довольно мутного рассказа на русском языке о внешних и внутренних факторах роста недоразвитых стран. Разница в темпах роста огромная и никуда не делась. Из рисунка очень понятно, что до кризиса страны с формирующимися рынками росли необычно быстро. Во время глобального финансового кризиса у всех был провал, затем отскок благодаря стимулирующей политике Китая и других стран. Но уже с 2012 практически везде наблюдается замедление роста. До 2013 года динамика российского роста хорошо вписывалась с общую картинку. Аномальные темпы роста около 7% в год и ошибки в экономической политике затем аукнулись большим спадом. После кризиса, как и следовало ожидать, темпы роста снизились до более нормальных 3-4%. После периода полной несознанки с призывами вернуться к росту 5-6%, МЭР и ЦБ теперь бросились в другую крайность, настаивая на том, что "новой нормой" для российской экономики является что-то меньше 2% в год. Джим О'Нил думает, что народ пугают реформаторы потому что хотят перемен. Другим объяснением может быть банальная "советская" попытка чиновников "занизить плана", чтобы его поток перевыполнить и получить за это грамоты и премии за уже проводимые структурные реформы.  Чтобы поддержать российских реформаторов, России на этот год МВФ прочит 1,3%, а в обозримом будущем рисуют 2,5% в год (Польше за ее институты обещают 3,5%). Среди 16 стран Китай стоит особняком. Резким замедлением китайского роста или даже финансовым крахом в этой стране пугают уже много лет. В этой связи обращает на себя внимание другая картинка и запись в блоге МВФ под названием "Размер важен".  Все знают, что экономика Китая долгие годы стабильно росла темпами по 10% в год. В 2003-2007 темпы роста были еще выше, в среднем 11,7%.  На 2014 год Китаю прогнозируют рост около 7,5%. А в 2015-2019 МВФ ожидает "всего" 6,8%.  МВФ замечает, что те, кто пугают нас таким замедлением, плохо понимают арифметику. Экономика Китая уже стала такой огромной, что китайские 6,8% в год добавляют к росту экономики мира БОЛЬШЕ, чем 11,7% до кризиса. До кризиса Китай добавлял в среднем 1 процентный пункт к общему росту ВВП, а в ближайшие годы будет добавлять 1,1 пп. Вклад Китая на рисунке помечен красным, вклад США синим, вклад большой, но слабенькой еврозоны желтым.  Еще одна известная иллюстрация того, что экономика Китая за пять потерянных для Запада лет стала огромной. США с середины 2008 года росли еле еле. Еврозона еще хуже, не будем ее даже обижать. А вот Китай не стоял на месте, сегодня его экономика уже на 60% больше, чем в середине 2008 года.(картинка отсюда, но таких много)