TRUMP outside group puts up another six-figure ad buy -- PAUL RYAN’s MILLION-DOLLAR day – House Republicans and W.H. discuss way to break health-care logjam -- STEVE THOMMA's new job -- B’DAY: Jo Becker
Listen to the Playbook Audio Briefing http://bit.ly/2o4WFTU ... Subscribe on iTunes http://apple.co/2eX6Eay ... Visit the online home of Playbook http://politi.co/2f51JnfBULLETIN -- AP at 4:46 a.m.: “TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Boeing Co. says it has signed a $3 billion deal with Iran’s Aseman Airlines for 30 737 MAX airplanes.”Good Tuesday morning. THE NEW REALITY: BIG MONEY AT EVERY TURN -- MAKING AMERICA GREAT, a non-profit group aligned with big GOP donor Rebekah Mercer, is dropping six figures on a digital advertising campaign to both tout the Trump administration’s accomplishments and pressure senators to confirm Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. The ad is running nationally, but will have boosted spending in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Wisconsin, Maine and D.C. -- all markets where Democratic senators face re-election in 2018. This campaign comes a week after a $1 million buy boosting Trump’s agenda. “Judge Gorsuch is impeccably qualified to serve on the Supreme Court. Some of our Senators’ petulant opposition is not in the best interest of our nation, and is contrary to the wishes of their constituency,” said Emily Cornell, the COO of Making America Great. “We welcome the opportunity to give Gorsuch supporters the megaphone they deserve.”-- THIS IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A TREND, AND TRUMP WORLD IS GOING TO BE HAPPY. Six- and seven-figure ad buys have gone up in back-to-back weeks to boost the president’s agenda. If this continues, it will be helpful as Trump tries to prevent a government shutdown, lift the debt ceiling, pass tax reform and an infrastructure bill. The ad http://bit.ly/2nSkOuV FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: RYAN’S MILLION-DOLLAR DAY -- SPEAKER PAUL RYAN is distributing $1.2 million from his personal political accounts to roughly half the House Republican Conference today. Ryan has already transferred millions of dollars to the party’s re-election arm, but now the speaker is cutting checks directly to lawmakers’ campaign committees -- a move that underscores his newfound brand as a top Republican money man. The donations are going to virtually every House Republican being targeted by Democrats, and conservatives and moderates alike. Members of the House found out about the Ryan largesse when Kevin Seifert, Ryan’s political director, emailed chiefs of staff, telling them a check was waiting at the RNC for pickup this morning. THIS IS IMPORTANT: Members of leadership usually either cut checks to the party committee, or directly to members. Ryan is doing both as he tries to keep the House in GOP hands in 2018.**SUBSCRIBE to Playbook: http://politi.co/2lQswbhFOR YOUR RADAR -- “Authorities name suspect from Kyrgyzstan in St. Petersburg metro bombing,” by WaPo’s Andrew Roth and David Filipov in St. Petersburg: “A likely suspect in the blast that killed 14 people as it ripped through a subway car in St. Petersburg is a Russian citizen born in a volatile region of Kyrgyzstan, the Central Asian country’s security service said Tuesday. The state security service of Kyrgyzstan told the Interfax news agency that the suspect is 22-year-old Akbarzhon Dzhalilov, who was born in Osh, a city that has seen bloody ethnic conflicts and the growth of jihadist movements since the Soviet Union began disintegrating three decades ago. The service said it was working with Russian law enforcement authorities, who are investigating the incident as an act of terrorism. Russian officials have not said how many people were involved in Monday’s attack.” http://wapo.st/2nzl9kxIT’S BACK … WE THINK? -- “White House, conservatives mull deal to revive Obamacare repeal,” by Rachael Bade and Jen Haberkorn: “House conservatives and the White House are mulling a potential agreement to revive the GOP Obamacare replacement bill that was pulled from the House floor just over a week ago, POLITICO has learned. The House Freedom Caucus, the group of three-dozen conservatives that helped bring down the bill, has been in talks with Trump administration officials about changes to the legislation that might get them to ‘yes.’ One option seriously being considered, multiple GOP sources said, includes allowing governors to opt out of some Obamacare regulations. “The developments could mean that Speaker Paul Ryan’s bill might not be dead after all -- or at least indicate that continued discussions are going on behind the scenes. Sources stressed that the details are still being finalized, and it’s far from certain that such a change would act as a silver bullet to salvage the much-maligned bill. It is unclear whether such an idea would win over enough conservatives while also keeping moderate Republicans on board. Two sources told POLITICO centrist House Republicans were summoned to the White House to discuss the idea Monday afternoon.” http://politi.co/2nDvgFy-- ONE THING TO REMEMBER: It’s possible, but very unlikely this bill will pass before May. A two-week recess starts Thursday afternoon. Even if a deal came together today, the GOP whip team would have to canvass for support to see if it could pass. And, if Republicans are true to what they promised voters a few years back, the bill would have to sit for three days so the public could review it. That would take us to Thursday -- the day Republicans are slated to get out of town. Could they keep the House in an extra day? Sure. Will they? Who knows, but probably not. And if it doesn’t pass this week, it won’t even be in the mix until May -- when Congress returns the last week of this month, they’ll have to fight to keep the government open.MCCONNELL’S BIG MOMENT -- “McConnell bets the Senate on Gorsuch,” by Burgess Everett: “When Neil Gorsuch is confirmed to the Supreme Court this week, Mitch McConnell will clinch a place in history after pulling off one of the most audacious gambles in modern political history. Whether he’ll be regarded as a hero or a villain depends almost entirely on which side of the aisle one is on. The immediate payoff to the Republican Party is enormous and indisputable, starting, of course, with another staunch conservative on the court who could remain there for decades. But Republicans also credit McConnell with saving the Senate majority and electing President Donald Trump, by giving traditional conservative voters a powerful motivator to turn out for a nominee they were less than enthused about.” http://politi.co/2oxdFTFSCOOP – “Name of Trump admin hire surfaced in Ashley Madison hack,” by Daniel Lippman: “The Trump administration has hired the former executive director of the Louisiana Republican Party whose name turned up on a list of accounts released in the 2015 hack of the cheating website Ashley Madison. Jason Doré started on Monday as assistant chief counsel for external affairs for the Small Business Administration’s Office of Advocacy, he confirmed to POLITICO on Monday. ... In 2015, Doré told the New Orleans Times-Picayune he used the Ashley Madison site for opposition research. He said on Monday he stood by that explanation. He told POLITICO the incident ‘really never came up’ in his recent job interviews. ‘I addressed it at the time. It’s not a secret,’ he said of the episode. ... The White House said Doré was not a political hire from the Presidential Personnel Office and did not comment further.” http://politi.co/2oUbLcj JUSTICE WATCH -- “Sweeping Federal Review Could Affect Consent Decrees Nationwide,” by NYT’s Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Eric Lichtblau: “Attorney General Jeff Sessions has ordered a sweeping review of federal agreements with dozens of law enforcement agencies, an examination that reflects President Trump’s emphasis on law and order and could lead to a retreat on consent decrees with troubled police departments nationwide. In a memorandum dated March 31 and made public Monday, the attorney general directed his staff to look at whether law enforcement programs adhere to principles put forth by the Trump administration, including one declaring that ‘the individual misdeeds of bad actors should not impugn’ the work police officers perform ‘in keeping American communities safe.’” http://nyti.ms/2oTRaEI BLAST FROM THE PAST -- “Blackwater founder held secret Seychelles meeting to establish Trump-Putin back channel,” by WaPo’s Adam Entous, Greg Miller, Kevin Sieff and Karen DeYoung: “The United Arab Emirates arranged a secret meeting in January between Blackwater founder Erik Prince and a Russian close to President Vladimir Putin as part of an apparent effort to establish a back-channel line of communication between Moscow and President-elect Donald Trump, according to U.S., European and Arab officials. The meeting took place around Jan. 11 — nine days before Trump’s inauguration — in the Seychelles islands in the Indian Ocean, officials said. Though the full agenda remains unclear, the UAE agreed to broker the meeting in part to explore whether Russia could be persuaded to curtail its relationship with Iran, including in Syria, a Trump administration objective that would be likely to require major concessions to Moscow on U.S. sanctions.” http://wapo.st/2oE1dhWHOT ON THE RIGHT -- WSJ EDITORIAL BOARD: “Susan Rice Unmasked: Obama’s security adviser sought the name of at least one Trump official in intelligence reports”: “Well, what do you know. On the matter of who ‘unmasked’ the names of Trump transition officials in U.S. intelligence reports, we now have one answer: Susan Rice, Barack Obama’s national security adviser.“A U.S. intelligence official confirms to us the bombshell news, first reported Monday by Bloomberg, that Ms. Rice requested the name of at least one Trump transition official listed in an intelligence report in the months between Election Day and Donald Trump’s inauguration. Ms. Rice received summaries of U.S. eavesdropping either when foreign officials were discussing the Trump team, or when foreign officials were conversing with a Trump transition member. The surveillance was legally authorized, but the identities of U.S. citizens are typically masked so they cannot be known outside intelligence circles. Ms. Rice asked for and learned the identity of the Trump official, whose name hasn’t been publicly disclosed and our source declined to share. ...“[T]he media have been running like wildebeest after that story while ignoring how the Obama Administration might have abused domestic surveillance for its political purposes. Americans deserve to know the truth about both.” http://on.wsj.com/2oUb42w KNOWING NUNES -- “Washington may be shaking its head, but Devin Nunes is still a hometown hero,” by L.A. Times’ Cathleen Decker in Tulare, California: “In an interview with The Times, he bridled at insinuations that, under pressure from the White House, he’d canceled a committee hearing that was to feature former Acting Atty. Gen. Sally Yates, who was fired by Trump early in his administration. ‘There’s a story ... that the Trump administration asked me not to invite Sally Yates and not have a hearing, which is 100% accurate, I mean inaccurate,’ he said. Later, describing the evidence that he said had ‘alarmed’ him enough to alert the president, he said that ‘it was involving Russia -- I mean it was not involving Russia.’” http://lat.ms/2o3TgVICOMING ATTRACTIONS -- “The return of Mitt Romney,” by McClatchy’s Katie Glueck: “Romney will make his first major foray into Donald Trump’s Washington next month, headlining a fundraiser to benefit the official foundation of Yellowstone National Park. The gathering will take place at Hawthorne, a bar and restaurant in D.C.’s hip U Street corridor, on May 4 at 7 p.m. ... The news comes as the White House announced Monday that Trump would donate his first quarter salary to the National Park Service. … Jackie Rooney, the founder and chair of Yellowstone Forever Young Patrons and an alum of Romney’s 2012 campaign, waved off the idea that he would make any political announcements at the May gathering. … [T]he host committee is stacked with former Romney staffers, including 2012 campaign manager Matt Rhoades, ex-campaign spokespeople Ryan Williams, Amanda Henneberg and Chris Maloney, and major pro-Romney fundraisers Charlie and Lisa Spies.” http://bit.ly/2oT1q01 … Tickets http://bit.ly/2oUmfbq HAPPENING TODAY -- TRUMP is meeting with CEOs at the White House before speaking at the North America’s Building Trades Unions National Legislative Conference at the Washington Hilton. He’s meeting separately with EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, HUD Secretary Ben Carson and Northern Mariana Islands Gov. Ralph Torres. WHAT CAUGHT OUR EYE: Trump is meeting with Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.). Rohrabacher has worked with disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff to try to connect Denis Sassou Nguesso, the strongman leader of the Republic of Congo, to Trump. http://politi.co/2nSwXAd -- AT TRUMP’S CEO MEETING: Gary Cohn, Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, White House director of strategic initiatives Christopher Liddell, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Ivanka Trump, Dina Powell. List of CEOs expected to attend http://politi.co/2owQVDy ... AP story http://apne.ws/2nxZWaB THE JUICE … -- SPOTTED AT THE NATS SEASON OPENER: Luke Russert and Michael Kornheiser, former Sen. Norm Coleman, Brian Zuzenak (celebrating his birthday), Missy Kurek, CR Wooters, Ian Mandel, Kevin McKeon, Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe, Mayor Bowser, former D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty, Al Hunt, Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer, Alex and Caitlin Conant, Lindsay Czarniak, James JB Brown, Chris Gindlesperger, Matt Haller, Andrew Kovalcin, Judd Deere and Todd Sadowski.--KELLY AYOTTE, the former Republican senator from New Hampshire, is now on the board of News Corp. Members of the board get paid $100,000 in cash annually, and $145,000 in deferred stock and compensation based on their board committee assignments, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Elaine Chao, who left the board to serve as President Trump’s transportation secretary, made $295,250 from the News Corp board in the 2016 fiscal year. Ayotte has helped shepherd Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch through the Senate confirmation process.-- RNC NAMES FINANCE TEAM -- Elliott Broidy, national vice chairman of Trump’s campaign and vice chairman of the presidential inaugural committee; Michael Cohen, Trump’s lawyer; and Louis DeJoy, president of LDJ Global Strategies, have been named national deputy chairmen for the RNC. Brian Ballard, a long-time Florida fundraiser; Bob Grand, who is close to Vice President Mike Pence; Gordon Sondland, founder and chairman of Aspen Lodging Group; Geoff Verhoff, of Akin Gump; and Ron Weiser, chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, have been named regional vice-chairmen. http://bit.ly/2nEmZkPYOU’RE INVITED -- THE HOUSE FREEDOM CAUCUS privately met last night with VICE PRESIDENT MIKE PENCE as Republicans try to pass a bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. We’ll be interviewing the group’s central figures: Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), founding chairman of the caucus, and Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) Thursday morning for a Playbook Interview. The Peter G. Peterson Foundation is sponsoring the event. Doors open at 8 a.m. and outside cameras are welcome. RSVP http://bit.ly/2oHFLIcSPORTS BLINK -- “North Carolina beats Gonzaga for sixth national championship,” by Sports Illustrated Wire: http://on.si.com/2oDZUzy-- THANK YOU to those who came out last night to our watch party at BlackFinn.DEEP DIVE -- JONATHAN MAHLER in Sunday’s upcoming NYT magazine, “CNN Had a Problem. Donald Trump Solved It: Inside the strange symbiosis between Jeff Zucker and the president he helped create”: Until Trump “an existential threat was looming. In a world where cable cutters were consuming their news in bite-size portions on their phones and streaming free video over the internet, how much longer would anyone be willing to pay for expensive cable packages? Real breaking-news events happened only every so often, and people lost interest in them quickly; more quickly than ever, in fact, now that there was so much else to distract them. But then along came a presidential candidate who was a human breaking-news event. Trump provided drama and conflict every time he opened his mouth. So too did his growing band of surrogates, who were paid by either the campaign or the network, and in one case both, to defend his statements. Indeed, it often seemed disconcertingly as though Trump had built his entire campaign around nothing so much as his singular ability to fill cable news’s endless demand for engaging content.“Had Trump lost the election, CNN would probably have returned to its previously scheduled struggle for survival. Instead, it has become more central to the national conversation than at any point in the network’s history since the first gulf war. And the man who is presiding over this historic moment at CNN happens to be the same one who was in some part responsible for Donald Trump’s political career. It was Zucker who, as president of NBC Entertainment, broadcast ‘The Apprentice’ at a time when Trump was little more than an overextended real estate promoter with a failing casino business. That show, more than anything, reversed Trump’s fortunes, recasting a local tabloid villain as the people’s prime-time billionaire. And it was Zucker who, as president of CNN, broadcast the procession of made-for-TV events — the always news-making interviews; the rallies; debates; the ‘major policy addresses’ that never really were — that helped turn Trump into the Republican front-runner at a time when few others took his candidacy seriously.” http://nyti.ms/2nRmPrgMICHAEL GRUNWALD in POLITICO Magazine, “For Trump, NAFTA Could Be the Next Obamacare”: “If Trump fails to bully the Mexicans into massive NAFTA concessions, or even a face-saving NAFTA update reinstating the TPP concessions, he will face a similar choice: Muddle through with the status quo, or else walk away and blame others for the chaos. Getting a divided Congress to approve a revised NAFTA would be a daunting legislative challenge, but abandoning NAFTA would be quite simple; Trump would just need to give six months’ notice. He would be risking the demolition of North American supply chains, fury from farmers and consumers, a potential trade war, and a potential recession.” http://politi.co/2oDOPyx BOSTON GLOBE -- “Cambridge council votes to urge US House to consider Trump impeachment,” by Felicia Glans: “In a vote Monday, seven city councilors voted in favor of a proposal that asks the House to authorize its Committee on the Judiciary to investigate possible violations Trump may have made in the foreign emoluments clause, domestic emoluments clause, or other constitutional clauses. … The template for the proposal was written by a national movement called Impeach Trump Now and has been used by such other communities as Berkeley, Calif., and Charlotte, Vt.” http://bit.ly/2ox9Z4b 2020 WATCH -- “Biden to headline New Hampshire party event,” by Gabriel Debenedetti: “Former Vice President Joe Biden is returning to New Hampshire for the first time since leaving the White House later this month for the state Democratic Party’s fundraising dinner. Headlining such events is often associated with presidential ambitions, and when Biden passed on the state committee’s big fundraising dinner in 2015, it was widely read as a sign that he wouldn’t pursue the presidency in 2016.” http://politi.co/2nWwmPsDRIP DRIP -- “Controversial Trump Aide Sebastian Gorka Backed Violent Anti-Semitic Militia,” by Lili Bayer in The Forward in Budapest: “As a Hungarian political leader in 2007, Sebastian Gorka, President Trump’s chief counter-terrorism adviser, publicly supported a violent racist and anti-Semitic paramilitary militia that was later banned as a threat to minorities by multiple court rulings. ... Asked directly on the TV interview program if he supports the move by Jobbik, a far-right anti-Semitic party, to establish the militia, Gorka, appearing as a leader of his own newly formed party, replies immediately, ‘That is so.’ The Guard, Gorka explains, is a response to ‘a big societal need.’” http://bit.ly/2nDwtNfFOGGY BOTTOM WATCH -- “Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore on shortlist for ambassador to Germany,” by WaPo’s Anne Gearan and Abby Phillip: http://wapo.st/2nyiebASNEAK PEAK -- KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND PROFILE -- Rebecca Traister in NYMag: “There’s plenty of speculation that Gillibrand will take her own advice and run for president in 2020. ... Though she supported Clinton over Sanders in 2016, she has much in common with the populist senator from Vermont. Like Sanders, she has often stood apart from Democrats. She ‘got an earful’ for her vote against tarp, she says, and recalls her failed efforts to save $4 billion cut from snap benefits in the farm bill, which only 28 of her fellow Democrats supported, as ‘so heartbreaking.’ And like Sanders, she sees in left-wing populism—in affordable day care and paid leave and the expansion of Medicare as a means of addressing economic inequality—a path for red and blue America to come together. Sanders spoke alongside Gillibrand in March at a press conference in support of the Family Act, and Gillibrand is very enthusiastic about becoming a co-sponsor of Sanders’s forthcoming Medicare for All bill.” Link live at 7 a.m. http://nym.ag/2our139HOLLYWOODLAND -- “Mitch Glazier Tapped to Succeed Cary Sherman as CEO of RIAA,” by Variety’s Ted Johnson: “Glazier in the meantime has been promoted to president of the association, after managing the public policy and industry relations teams as senior executive vice president. Sherman plans to retire from the RIAA at the end of 2018, after serving as chairman and CEO for seven years.” http://bit.ly/2ovCWOqMEDIAWATCH -- “Media Consumption Of 2016 Political News: Strong Gains, Cable TV Soars,” by MediaPost’s Wayne Friedman: “There is more evidence that TV news consumption rose sharply in 2016, due to a surprising presidential election. Nielsen says there was an 18% gain in news media consumption in 2016 over the year before -- to 72.5 billion minutes. The bulk of this came from large turnout in watching TV cable news networks. Adults 18 + watched 44% more national cable TV networks, in term of gross minutes a week, versus 2015. For the individual viewer, this averaged six and half hours a week watching national cable news networks -- an hour and a half more than in 2015, and a hour and forty-five minutes from the last presidential election in 2012.” http://bit.ly/2oT4Gso-- “More Trouble at Fox News: Ailes Faces New Sexual Claims and O’Reilly Loses Two Advertisers,” by NYT’s Emily Steel and Michael S. Schmidt: “The sexual harassment scandal that engulfed Fox News last year and led to the ouster of its chairman, Roger Ailes, continued to batter the network on Monday, as a new lawsuit described unwanted sexual advances by Mr. Ailes and two major advertisers pulled their spots from the show of its top-rated host, Bill O’Reilly. Mercedes-Benz and Hyundai said they were withdrawing their ads from Mr. O’Reilly’s prime-time show, ‘The O’Reilly Factor,’ after The New York Times published an investigation this weekend that found five women who made allegations of sexual harassment or inappropriate behavior against him. Those five women received settlements totaling about $13 million, The Times reported.” http://nyti.ms/2oDXT6n ... NYT’s original Sunday blockbuster http://nyti.ms/2owRFZv -- STEVE THOMMA has been hired as the new director of the White House Correspondents Association – Jeff Mason emails members: “After conducting a nationwide search, fielding over 100 applications and conducting interviews with more than 10 candidates, we are happy to announce that Steve Thomma, former White House Correspondent and former Politics and Government Editor at McClatchy, will be taking over as executive director of the WHCA next month. ... He will start in the WHCA office this week, shadowing and assisting Julie as she helps to plan her final White House Correspondents’ Dinner as executive director.”SPOTTED in first class from Memphis to Atlanta: Andrew Young, the former congressman, UN Ambassador and mayor of Atlanta. ... Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) at DCA tuning into CNN’S “The Lead” on one of the airport’s TVs.-- SPOTTED in Palm Beach yesterday at the “Managing the Disruption” conference hosted by Jeff Greene and the Greene Institute, which focused on the impact of automation and artificial intelligence on jobs and the economy: Gov. Chris Christie, Arne Duncan, Kimberly Bryant, Eythor Bender, Larry Summers, Vivek Wadhwa, Larry Kudlow, Stefanie Symon, Tom Friedman, Kate Darling and Scott Santens.TRANSITIONS -- Robert Flock is joining the Credit Union National Association on April 10 as associate director of advocacy, where he’ll be responsible for outreach to members of the House Republican Conference. He was previously policy advisor at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck … Samantha Medlock has started as North America lead for capital, science and policy with Willis Towers Watson, the global advisory, broking and risk management solutions company. She previously was previously senior advisor at the Obama White House’s OMB. … Daniel Huey is joining the firm Something Else as a partner. He comes onboard from the NRCC where he served as a senior advisor and managed the independent expenditure unit. ...… Riley Kilburg, who was deputy political director of Hillary for America in Iowa, recently joined the team at Center Forward, which brings together members of Congress, non profits, academic experts, trade associations, corporations and unions to find common ground and end gridlock in Washington. … Dina Ellis Rochkind, formerly Washington director for Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.), is joining the fintech and payments practice at Paul Hastings, helping to lead their government relations offering. http://politi.co/2owRInT … Digital strategist David Payne is leaving VOX Global after running the agency’s online advocacy practice for eight years. He is launching CODAVATE, a digital public affairs firm. http://bit.ly/2oTUhNc ENGAGED -- Kevin Daley, The Daily Caller News Foundation’s Supreme Court reporter, got engaged to Rachel Landsman, a paralegal in the appeals practice of Kirkland and Ellis, working for Paul Clement. He proposed at the Tidal Basin, before they got brunch in the Kennedy booth at Martin’s. Beforehand, he filed a story -- and his editors love that. “The wonderful pair are proof something beautiful can come of interns meeting at Union Pub,” Chris Bedford writes us. Pic http://bit.ly/2nVsyOkBIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Ed Rowny, Reagan’s strategic nuclear arms negotiator, Ambassador and Army Lieutenant General, turned 100 years old -- he lives in DC and is still active in international matters (hat tip: Joe Duggan, who was his public affairs advisor at State from 1986 to 1990)BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Jo Becker, Pulitzer Prize-winning NYT investigative reporter and author of “Forcing the Spring: Inside the Fight for Marriage Equality” – she’s celebrating with her “best girlfriends for a night on the town, hopefully taking a horse jumping lesson on the sweetest thoroughbred named Chance ... [and] then later this month heading to Costa Rica for a birthday surfing roadtrip with my brother and some friends from there” – read her Playbook Plus Q&A: http://politi.co/2nz6DcA BIRTHDAYS: Rob Stutzman ... author Kitty Kelley is 75 ... former Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) is 85 ... Molly Edwards, deputy press secretary in the Office of the Speaker (hat tip: Speaker Ryan press shop) ... Senegal turns 57 on its Independence Day ... Bruce Wolpe, a Henry Waxman alum and chief of staff to former Prime Minister Julia Gillard of Australia, is 66 ... KJ Heal ... cybersecurity reporter and Politico alum Joe Marks ... Warren Ryan, policy advisor at Treasury ... Kristin Bannerman ... Hillary (Maxwell) Beightel, a Bush 43 Ed. dept alum now in public affairs and corporate comms. at Dell ... Judith Czelusniak, a Bloomberg alum now doing marketing/PR in Florida (h/t David Bass) … Dena Levitz, a 1776 alum now at Web Summit ... Michael Halle, alum of Hillary for America, Gov. McAuliffe and Obama 2012 ... Admiral Bobby Ray Inman, former NSA Director and LBJ School prof, is 86 … Ryan Davis, managing director of digital at Families For Excellent Schools (and former social media director at Blue State Digital) is 35 (h/t Lee Morrow) ... Caroline Campbell ... Charles Halloran, celebrating with Chris (h/ts Jon Haber) ... longtime Senate Republican floor aide Robert Duncan is 4-0 (h/t Stew) ... Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) is 52 ...... Meghan Thurlow, senior manager for global public affairs at GE and a DOT and Burson-Marsteller alum … former Sen. Mo Cowan (D-Mass.) is 48 ... National Media’s Melissa Sharp, an NRSC and Carly for Senate alum ... Politico’s Alexandra Farrand ... Lindsay Gruskay of Broadway Video, Lorne Michaels’ entertainment and media company ... Teddy Himler, principal at Comcast Ventures ... Bridget Spurlock, director of scheduling for Sen. Rubio (h/t Megan McKinley) ... Daisy Melamed Sanders, senior editor for Hearst Digital Media’s content studio ... Neil Giacobbi, associate VP of public affairs at AT&T ... Joy Wang, editor at NBC News and a WNYC alum ... Darienne Page, gov’t relations at Lyft and Obama alum and formerly ROTUS, the White House Receptionist ... Dan Hauser ... Tyler Beckley of Knoxville ... Ryan Davis, co-founder and strategy director of Bushwick Digital … Alex Paulitz … Jerry Irvine ... David Fawcett … Francis Kidd ... Joe Riccca ... Alfred Stanley ... Katreice Banks ... Laura Dresser ... Nile Ritchie (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Robert Downey Jr. is 52 ... magician David Blaine is 44 (h/ts AP)
Департамент парламентских служб парламента Австралии не удалил личные номера сотрудников во время публикации данных о средствах, потраченных на оплату телефонных разговоров. Об этом сообщили западные СМИ. Известно, что в отчёте номера телефонов были просто замазаны белым цветом и расшифровать их не составляет никакого труда. При этом в прошлые годы перед публикацией документа номера именно удалялись из него. В результате в Сети появились телефоны экс-премьер-министров Джулии Гиллард, Джона Говарда, Пола Китинга, а также лидера оппозиции Билла Шортена, вице-премьера Барнаби Джойса, министра обороны Кристофера Пайна, министра связи Митча Файфилда и других политиков. В провинившемся департаменте обвиняют в утечке данных частного подрядчика, компанию Telco Management.
Where is the next generation of ‘Hidden Figures’ and what will they accomplish? We will know only if we invest more in strengthening education One of the most popular, acclaimed and inspiring American films of the last few months has been Hidden Figures, the true story of three African American women whose exceptional mathematical and engineering skills were essential to the development of the US space program.The movie shows how they struggled to overcome the pervasively held, unenlightened assumptions of early 1960s America: that neither women nor African Americans – let alone African American women – had a place in the brainy world of rocket science. Ultimately (spoiler alert, though this will hardly surprise anyone), the superior intellects of the film’s three protagonists led to huge breakthroughs. Continue reading...
Крайне жесткая политика Австралии по отношению к нелегальным мигрантам вот уже 15 лет вызывает критику правозащитных организаций. Еще в 2001 году Канберра заключила договор с соседней Папуа—Новая Гвинея и островным государством Науру. На их территории были созданы специальные центры по приему беженцев, куда перевозились желающие получить убежище и где их дела рассматривались австралийскими служащими. В 2010-м премьер-министр Джулия Гиллард так резюмировала политику Канберры, получившую назва… ЧИТАТЬ ДАЛЕЕ: http://ru.euronews.com/2017/02/02/australia-extends-comfort-at-arms-length-for-refugees euronews: самый популярный новостной канал в Европе. Подписывайтесь! http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=euronewsru euronews доступен на 13 языках: https://www.youtube.com/user/euronewsnetwork/channels На русском: Сайт: http://ru.euronews.com Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/euronews Twitter: http://twitter.com/euronewsru Google+: https://plus.google.com/u/0/b/101036888397116664208/100240575545901894719/posts?pageId=101036888397116664208 VKontakte: http://vk.com/ru.euronews
Among all the Western democracies that have spoken out against the Trump administration’s controversial immigration order—banning all refugees for the next four months, and Syrian refugees indefinitely—one country is conspicuously absent: Australia. Australia has instead taken the opportunity to talk up its own draconian refugee policy, under which refugees arriving by boat are not only barred from entering the country, but also permanently banned from it, even if they have legitimate asylum claims. That has resulted in thousands being sent to detention centers on remote Pacific islands, where serious human rights violations against detainees have been documented. “[W]e are the envy of the world when it comes to strong border protection policies,” Australia’s treasurer Scott Morrison boasted on a radio show this week. “The rest of the world would love to have our borders and the way they are secured and the immigration arrangements we have put in place, particularly most recently, over the last three or four years… Really, the rest of the world is catching up to Australia.” Prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said it was not his place to comment on other countries’ immigration policies, but said that he was “proud” of Australia’s “strong [immigration] systems.” The fact that the fate of hundreds of refugees waiting to be potentially resettled in the US—under an agreement struck between the US and Australia under the Obama administration—remains up in the air, however, suggests that Trump’s policy is not simply just a domestic US affair. The offshore detention centers on Nauru (an island nation) and Manus Island (part of Papua New Guinea) were reopened under Julia Gillard’s government in 2012. During Labor prime minister Kevin Rudd’s administration in 2013, Australia struck a deal (widely known as the “PNG Solution”) with Papua New Guinea whereby asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia would be settled in PNG instead. It also put the military in charge of its borders, under Operation Sovereign Borders. Rudd said the move would help curb people-smuggling. He also imposed a temporary ban on asylum seekers from Sri Lanka and Afghanistan in 2010, amid a surge in people attempting to get to Australia by boat. Australia has certainly won fans at home and abroad for its tough border policies. Elaine Pearson, the Australia director of Human Rights Watch, said its refugee policy continues because it has “popular support.” One poll taken last year found that almost half of Australians support a ban on Muslim immigrants. Abroad, far-right parties in Europe and mainstream Tories in the UK have also expressed admiration for Australia’s tough policies, wrote Australian columnist and academic Waleed Aly last year in the New York Times (paywall). In 2015, Australia ranked 25th in terms of the total number of refugees taken by a country, and 32nd on a per capita basis. This article originally appeared on Quartz. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
Indonesian military Chief Gatot Nurmantyo talks to reporters in the Indonesian capitals Jakarta on January 5. Beawiharta/Reuters Yohanes Sulaiman, Universitas Jendral Achmad Yani The Indonesian government has confirmed that it will not suspend military cooperation with Australia after a top general said earlier in the week that ties between the two nations would be cut. The incident is just the latest episode in a rocky relationship between the neighbours. On January 4, Indonesian Military Chief Gatot Nurmantyo declared the suspension of Indonesia-Australia military cooperation, apparently because an Indonesian special forces commander trainer found materials at an Australian teaching facility that were insulting to both the Indonesian military and the state's ideology of Pancasila. Pancasila, from the Sanskrit word for for "five", panca, and the Javanese for "principles", sila, is the name given to the official founding principles of the Indonesian state. The principles are: "The one God system (monotheism), just and civilised humanity, the unity of Indonesia, democracy and social justice for all." The incident is part of the ups and downs of the Indonesia-Australia diplomatic and military relationship that dates back to 1945 when Indonesia first declared independence from both Japan, which had occupied the country in 1942 and the Dutch, who had colonised it in the 18th century. Neighbourhood blues In September 1945, Australian waterside workers imposed "a black ban" on all Dutch ships destined for Indonesia in Australian ports. Later, Australian government showed sympathy for its northern neighbour in the Dutch-Indonesia conflict, even while officially maintaining impartiality. Since then, however, the relationship between Australia and Indonesia has been rocky at times, depending on what Australia has perceived to be in its national interest. Australian public opinion opposed Indonesia's desire to incorporate West Papua into the nation in the 1950s, for instance, and a low-level separatist conflict continues in the province. Australia initially supported Indonesia's invasion of East Timor, but after the fall of president Suharto in 1998, then-Australian prime minister John Howard proposed a referendum on the issue of independence for East Timor. This led to the secession of East Timor from Indonesia. And the violence that ensued led Australia to send troops to East Timor under the auspices of the United Nations' INTERFET (International Force East Timor). Defence cooperation between Australia and Indonesia has improved drastically since then: both countries need each other. For Australia, Indonesia is an important nation for its security and economic objectives as the country is its gateway to Asia. President Joko Widodo and the rest of the cabinet could have simply reaffirmed what General Nuryantyo had proclaimed. Darren Whiteside/Reuters Indonesia, on the other hand, needs Australia as a strategic partner to modernise and further professionalise its military forces. Every year, Indonesia sends more than a hundred officers to Australia for training and education. Yet the distrust engendered by Australia's intervention in East Timor lingers, and remains the root of current problems in the nations' relationship. It still hovers in the background despite improvements in economic, military, and diplomatic relationship. Hidden agendas? General Gatot Nurmantyo is the perfect embodiment of this lack of trust. In March 2015, for instance, he suggested that Australia's meddling in East Timor's secession from Indonesia was part of a proxy war to secure oil. In December 2016, he ominously warned of Australia's desire to take over the Masela Oil Block, which is close to Timor-Leste (as East Timor has been called since gaining independence) and Darwin. He also noted that Indonesia is currently surrounded by Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Malaysia, which all of which used to have problems with Indonesia. Many Indonesians share similar discomfort, though it might not as extreme as General Nurmantyo's. Despite assurances from both US President Obama and Australia's then-prime minister Julia Gillard that the goal of stationing 2,500 US troops in Darwin from 2017 was to counter China - and not to threaten Indonesia or the Southeast Asian region generally - many Indonesians still believe there's a hidden agenda concerning both US and Australian interest in Indonesia's abundant natural resources and Papua. Given this background, it should be no surprise that a homework assignment for an Indonesian Special Forces language student to write an essay supporting the argument "Papua should have independence because it was part of Melanesia" would touch a raw nerve. It confirmed General Nurmantyo's worst expectations about Australia's intentions, including that Indonesian officers training in Australia would be indoctrinated and recruited as spies. Contradictory messages At the same time, General Nurmantyo's reaction caught other Indonesians completely off guard. Indonesian military's spokesman, Major General Wuryanto, for instance, stated that the reason for the temporary freeze was technical matters (masalah teknis) and not due to insulting Pancasila. Even the normally nationalistic Indonesian Defence Minister, Ryamizard Ryacudu, played down the incident, saying that it was an isolated personal act that the Australian government had regretted. And he noted that Australia had apologised for the incident, which actually happened in mid-December 2016. To add to the confusion, a tweet from the presidential staff office suggested that the temporary halting of the military cooperation between Australia and Indonesia was only on joint training, education, officer exchange, and official visits. Later, however, in a letter that was followed by a press conference by Wiranto, the Coordinating Ministry for Politics, Law, and Security, stressed that the relationship freeze was limited only to language courses. Letter from the Coordinating Minister for Politics, Law, and Security. Work to do It seems from the different responses of several government ministers that General Nurmantyo's decision to halt the military cooperation was abrupt, and that it came without any warning or coordination with other ministers - or even the military's own spokesman. The relationship between Australia and Indonesia is clearly very important for the Indonesian government, given the response to General Nurmantyo's announcement. It would have been simple for President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and the rest of the cabinet to simply reaffirm what General Nuryantyo had proclaimed. But they value Indonesian-Australian military ties, and so Jokowi and the rest of the cabinet went into damage control mode to limit the fallout. Finally, the incident shows that trust between Australia and Indonesia remains fragile, since a language class writing assignment could cause such an outrage. Indonesia's wounds from East Timor's secession are clearly still very raw. Coupled with the uproar over revelations in 2013 that Australia wiretapped then-president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2009, which led to suspension of cooperation between the two countries, it shouldn't be surprising that Indonesia remains wary of Australia's intentions. Clearly, both the Australian and Indonesian governments still have a lot of homework to do to build trust between their nations. Yohanes Sulaiman, Visting Lecturer in International Relations and Political Science at Indonesian Defense University & Lecturer, Universitas Jendral Achmad Yani This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
Сразу после смерти королевы Елизаветы Второй Австралия готова покончить с монархией и объявить себя республикой. С этим сенсационным и весьма некорректным заявлением премьер Австралии выступила аккурат перед выборами в парламент в 2010 году.«Я считаю, что смена монарха будет самым подходящим моментом для Австралии, чтобы стать республикой, - ошарашила подданных Джулия Гиллард. Премьер, кстати, сама коренная британка, но, видимо, ради победы над оппозиционерами-монархистами можно поступиться и родиной.«Разумеется, я желаю королеве Елизавете долгих и счастливых лет жизни», - тут же добавила дама, но осадочек, что называется, остался.В 1901 году, когда британские колонии образовали Австралийский союз, Лондон даровал доминиону конституцию. Интересы монарха здесь представляет генерал-губернатор. Кроме Австралии Елизавета II считается номинальной правительницей Канады, Новой Зеландии, Ямайки и ряда островных государств в Карибском море.Кстати, в 1999 году в Австралии уже проводили по этому вопросу референдум, и тогда большинство не захотело отказываться от монарха.И вот свеженькое заявление на ту же тему:Премьер-министр Австралии Малкольм Тернбулл высказался в поддержку республиканского строя в стране.«Я австралиец, и я горжусь этим. Главой нашего государства должен быть человек, который может сказать то же самое», — заявил Тернбулл во время празднования 25-летия основания Австралийского республиканского движения.Как сообщает The Sydney Morning Herald, политик выступает за проведение референдума. Однако, по словам Тернбулла, голосование должно пройти лишь после окончания правления королевы Елизаветы II.Тернбулл также отметил, что четверть века назад он и не предполагал, что Австралия до этой поры не станет республикой.Источник1 Источник2
Листая старые страницы: Сразу после смерти 84-летней Елизаветы Второй Австралия готова покончить с монархией и объявить себя республикой. С этим сенсационным и весьма некорректным заявлением премьер Австралии выступила аккурат перед выборами в парламент. «Я считаю, что смена монарха будет самым подходящим моментом для Австралии, чтобы стать республикой, - ошарашила подданных Джулия Гиллард. Премьер, кстати, сама коренная британка, но, видимо, ради победы над оппозиционерами-монархистами можно поступиться и родиной.51 комментарий
Tuesday was supposed to be the day America would catch up with history and the rest of the world. Finally, the US would elect its first woman president. It turns out that the catch up will be delayed. In the World Economic Forum's 2016 Gender Gap report, the United States is ranked 73rd out of 143 countries (Lebanon being 143rd) in political empowerment. The US position is slowly falling down the list, not because the United States' record on electing women is getting worse, but that other countries are getting substantially better. Today there are 60 members of the Council of Women World Leaders, all of them current or former freely elected heads of state or government as president, prime minister or chancellor. On the list of countries that have had such a leader in the past 50 years, the United State is dead last. The obvious question is, why? Why can't the world's most powerful nation elect a woman president? In trying to parse what part of this failure is the unpredictability of politics' rough and tumble process and what is sexism, I separate the causes into two categories: "the seed and the soil." The seed is the individual candidate. The soil is the ground in which that candidate has to try to prosper: the institutional structures and processes that either facilitate change or throw up barriers. The United States and its winner-take-all system is tough soil for new growth to take root in. The electoral college, not the popular vote, determines who gets elected, giving more weight to outliers in middling states like Michigan or Ohio. (Secretary Clinton looks now to have received more votes than Donald Trump, just as Senator Al Gore did against President George W. Bush in the 2000 election). In this system, third party candidates can act as spoilers, preventing major party candidates from gaining a clear advantage in some states. The hurdle for women is lower in countries in a parliamentary system, where the multiple parties can agree to back each other's leaders in coalitions. Parliamentary elections also put more parties in play. The more parties in play, the more opposition leaders there are. And since women often become opposition leader before they become prime minister, there are more opportunities for women to take the top job. Women also often find an entry point to the presidency in countries where the prime minister is the executive and the president wields more symbolic "soft power." More than 100 countries, furthermore, promote women's chances to lead with some sort of quota system, requiring a certain minimum number of seats in parliament to be filled by women. Women are given the chance to hone their political skills as a MP or deputy, establishing a well-stocked pipeline of experienced women legislators prepared to run for the high office. In the US, where no such quotas exist, the percentage of the House and Senate seats held by women seems to plateau at about 20 percent never attaining what many regard as a critical mass of 35 percent. Affirmative mechanisms are highly unpopular and unlikely to be enacted. Quotas don't advance unqualified women but remove in-group favoritism and closed social networks, so qualified women can advance. Fighting to lodge into this forbidding soil, the seed has its own disadvantages. Women simply do not fit the archetype of a leader in a country that stakes its "super power" status on its military might. Men are presumed to be strong until they show otherwise. Women must prove they have strength, which is what made Donald Trump's attack on Hillary Clinton's "stamina" so effective. Using this code word, he played on Americans' unconscious fear that Secretary Clinton was not strong enough to be commander-in-chief. Nearly all of the female leaders in the Council have experienced scrutiny of their hair, dress, voice, and style that men get much more rarely. In the seemingly endless campaign just ended, the objectification of Secretary Clinton went beyond hyper-scrutiny to misogynistic name-calling, with anti-Clinton T-shirts and signs reading "Trump the bitch." This can happen to some degree in other countries; once in office, Austrian Prime Minister Julia Gillard was subjected to a firestorm of misogyny from her male opposition leader, but he never devolved into quite the gutter attacks this US election saw. Candidate Trump indulged in this kind of misogyny, but also gave voice to an unsettling loss of centrality that some men feel when faced with the advancement of women (and other historically underrepresented groups). His supporters were given permission to not be politically correct, as they saw it, and vocalize their dis-ease at seeing "rightful" gender roles upset. Of course women are judged for themselves as much as men are: on their experience and their message, and their likeability. Secretary Clinton, with her baggage of investigations dating back to her husband's administration and her more recent history of email troubles, was widely seen as an imperfect messenger and therefore not deserving of the presidency. In her book Lean In, Google CEO Sheryl Sandburg says that women must be liked and Clinton, polls showed, was not liked. But neither was Donald Trump -- his unfavorable rating was worse than his opponents -- yet he is President-elect. This anomaly points to a tolerance gap in American politics when it comes to mistakes or misjudgments. In the scrupulous fact checking that the press conducted, prompted by Trump's constant straying from the truth, Secretary Clinton was cited for roughly a fifth the number of "less than true statements" as Trump. Nonetheless he successfully branded her a "liar." A simple litmus test: put one of Trump's false statements in Clinton's mouth ("Crime is rising," "We're the highest taxed country in the world,"), then ask how the voters would react. This was a peculiar and particularly difficult election for our female presidential candidate, but only in degree. These same individual and institutional difficulties challenge women at some level in every US election. The U.S. now ranks 93rd in representation in the two houses of Congress according to the Interparliamentary Union. According to Saadia Zahidi, an economist and Member of the Executive Committee of the World Economic Forum who authors the Gender Gap Report, 47 percent of all countries have had at least one female head of state, ever. At the current rate, Zahidi has projected, it will take more than 100 years for the world to get to gender parity, where half of all heads of states are women at any given time. Will the United States get there by then? The silver lining is that women around the world are making substantial progress in reaching highest level offices. That progress will continue and be sustainable as more women see that it is possible and desirable, in spite of what happens in the United States. xxx November 13, 2016 -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
Class and identity politics are not mutually exclusive. The left should use this to its benefit | Jeff Sparrow
Many on the left think that relating to class anger means we can’t call out bigotry. But a recognition of class shouldn’t be an alternative to combatting oppression “Class is back in politics,” declared Waleed Aly last week. “We ignore it at our peril.”That may well be true but Malcolm Turnbull’s bizarre intervention on 7.30 reminds us that the terrain opening up since Donald Trump’s win is by no means simple. In a speech obviously shaped by the election result, the prime minister launched a very Trumplike attack on what he called the “elite media”. Continue reading...
Over the past few weeks, I have heard the same question over and over: what will it mean for women if Hillary Clinton is elected? To me, the question isn't, "what do the election results mean?" but "what do they say about the United States?" If Clinton wins, it will reflect where we are. We have changed. We have moved on from antiquated views of who women are, and what behavior towards them is acceptable. To paraphrase both Michelle Obama and Condoleezza Rice, it would be saying, "Enough." Clinton's presidency would certainly be historic and always would be a marker of a broken ceiling. Perhaps she would encourage more women to think of a career in politics. And, if the turnout for Clinton also brings people to the polls to vote for other women, a victory for her could be accompanied by victories for other women. The visible change to the demographic of those in politics would serve as models for younger women. We know it's harder to aspire to results when you have seen no evidence of their possibility. Simply electing a woman to high office will instill in both girls and boys the idea that both women and men can be leaders. But, I don't think there will be any significant changes in our country in the short run. Organizations and systems change slowly. Changing institutions is like turning an ocean liner. What this election could show is that we are turning the ship. When Julia Gillard became Australia's Prime Minister in 2010, she expected to be a novelty for the first few months in office. Yet, she experienced misogyny for years, finally coming to a head in her now-famous speech in front of parliament in 2012. In the speech, she berated opposition leader Tony Abbott for his misogynistic insults and offensive insinuations that women are not equally fit to be leaders. We saw something similar in this country after President Obama was elected in 2008: his historic presidency turned out not to be a silver bullet for eradicating racial tensions and disparities. Even in office, I expect Clinton will continue to face double standards, like those she has encountered on the campaign trail. Her likeability has been a frequent topic of discussion, while I haven't heard similar conversations about male candidates. We elect presidents to be the Commander-in-Chief, not to be a guest at our dinner table. If Clinton is elected, we might see some subtle changes, like seeing more women in places of power. What we know about networks and homosocial reproduction tells us that she's likely to appoint more women to senior posts, just as Obama did with African Americans during his two terms. The phenomenon is not necessarily an implicit bias, but a natural outcome of the people she knows and the people in her network. Sexism and gender inequality won't be solved overnight, but electing a woman to the highest office would be a significant step in the right direction. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
Former Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard warns Theresa May she may face growing "gender-based" insults over time.
CLINTON bars lobbyists from transition -- TRUMP calls the NYT to discuss new campaign strategy -- TWO new TRUMP ads -- Clinton has 75 percent chance of winning -- BIRTHWEEK: Trey Anastasio
CLICKERS -- NYT Upshot -- “The 1,024 Ways Clinton or Trump Can Win the Election” http://nyti.ms/2dHBVup... “Hillary Clinton has a 75% chance of winning the presidency” http://nyti.ms/2cT0F47IT’S OCTOBER! The last full month of the 2016 campaign. Just think of this: Next week, while the rest of the world obsesses over the presidential race, Washington will be talking about the lame duck, whether Congress will pass an omnibus or continuing resolution on the budget and musing about whether Capitol Hill will mess up everyone’s holiday plans.LISTEN TO THIS -- “Audio Reveals What John Kerry Told Syrians Behind Closed Doors” http://nyti.ms/2dlcvmK**SUBSCRIBE to Playbook: http://politi.co/1M75UbX TRANSITION WATCH -- Lobbyists have raised and given millions of dollars to Hillary Clinton -- but if you think that will get you a spot on her transition team, you’re wrong. K Streeters haven’t been allowed to join policy groups that help advise the campaign, and so far her transition team -- which has grown to roughly two dozen employees -- have also barred lobbyists from joining its ranks. It’s not yet clear if a Clinton administration would maintain the Obama administration’s ban on lobbyists working in the executive branch. A source familiar with the transition says no decision has been made, and nothing is expected until after the election.BEING THERE -- “Trump hones attacks on big corporations, donors and media: His class-based populist appeals are intended to rally white working class base, but also former Sanders supporters,” by Ken Vogel in Novi, Michigan: “As Donald Trump’s campaign works to drive a sharper message down the home stretch, the GOP nominee is increasingly invoking the specter of a conspiracy by big corporations, media companies and donors to elect Hillary Clinton. The warnings, coming in scripted and sometimes personal attack lines in nearly every recent speech, are largely geared towards mobilizing Trump’s base of disaffected white working class voters … Taken together, it represents the fullest and most concise expression -- and certainly among the most consistent -- of an evolving class-based appeal from an unlikely messenger.” With a great kicker http://politi.co/2dg7lJmFOR THE RECORD….Trump was right! From the Commission on Presidential Debates: “Regarding the first debate, there were issues regarding Donald Trump’s audio that affected the sound level in the debate hall.”-- “Post-debate polls show Trump slump,” by Steven Shepard: “Donald Trump is sliding in the initial polls conducted after his poor performance this week in the first presidential debate, falling behind Hillary Clinton nationally and in key battleground states after he had closed the gap over the past six weeks. Clinton has expanded her national lead in the first spate of post-debate polls conducted in the days following Monday’s debate on Long Island. And a series of swing-state polls released over the past 24 hours also shows Clinton ahead, with Trump’s numbers slipping in some of the states. Clinton’s post-debate bounce — or Trump’s slump — appears to have staked the Democratic nominee to a low-to-mid-single-digit advantage nationally. Most prominently, a Fox News poll released Friday night showed Clinton three points ahead of Trump.” http://politi.co/2cHZUY4TRUMP CALLS THE ‘FAILING’ NEW YORK TIMES -- “Donald Trump Opens New Line of Attack on Hillary Clinton: Her Marriage,” by Pat Healy and Maggie Haberman: “Mr. Trump, aiming to unnerve Mrs. Clinton, even indicated that he was rethinking his statement at their last debate that he would ‘absolutely’ support her if she won in November, saying: ‘We’re going to have to see. We’re going to see what happens. We’re going to have to see.’ In an interview with The New York Times, he also contended that infidelity was ‘never a problem’ during his three marriages, though his first ended in an ugly divorce after Mr. Trump began a relationship with the woman who became his second wife. Speaking by phone from a campaign swing in Michigan, he said that he was ‘absolutely disgusted’ that Mrs. Clinton had allied herself politically with a Miss Universe winner, Alicia Machado, whom Mr. Trump had derided for gaining weight. … He asserted, without offering any evidence, that Ms. Machado had once participated in a sex tape …“‘She’s nasty, but I can be nastier than she ever can be,’ Mr. Trump said. ‘Hillary Clinton was married to the single greatest abuser of women in the history of politics,’ he added about Mr. Clinton. ‘Hillary was an enabler, and she attacked the women who Bill Clinton mistreated afterward. I think it’s a serious problem for them, and it’s something that I’m considering talking about more in the near future.’” http://nyti.ms/2dvPrQg--POOL REPORT DU JOUR -- @ByronTau: “This is the most ridiculous pool report I have ever sent”: “Spokesman Nick Merrill dropped by the pool hold van in the pouring rain to offer this comment. ‘There’s been a lot of talk about sex tapes today and in a strange turn of events only one adult film has emerged today and its star is Donald Trump,’ adding that he has not seen the film.’” http://bit.ly/2cJ67mQ--“Donald Trump Appeared In A 2000 Playboy Softcore Porn,” by BuzzFeed’s Andrew Kaczynski and Nathaniel Meyersohn: “Trump’s role in the porn is relatively benign and centers around him breaking a bottle of champagne on a Playboy-branded limo while several of the playmates are visiting New York City.” http://bzfd.it/2dyDAGMNEWT GINGRICH went on Sean Hannity’s show last night and said Trump can’t be tweeting at 3 a.m., and said if he continues to be himself, he might not be president. http://bit.ly/2cJ62zfTWO NEW TRUMP ADS -- “Motherhood,” featuring Ivanka Trump. SCRIPT: “The most important job any woman could have is being a mother, and it shouldn’t mean taking a pay cut. I’m Ivanka Trump, a mother, a wife and an entrepreneur. Donald Trump understands the needs of the modern workforce. My father will change outdated labor laws so that they support women and American families. He will provide tax credits for childcare, paid maternity leave and dependent care savings accounts. This will allow women to support their families and further their careers.” http://bit.ly/2cIk49f--“Why,” which starts with Clinton asking “Why aren’t I 50 points ahead, you might ask.” “Maybe it’s because the director of the FBI said you lied about your emails … Or maybe it’s because your policies have allowed ISIS and terrorism to spread. Or maybe it’s because you call Americans deplorable.” http://bit.ly/2dsXcKvGROUND GAME -- “Clinton launches final-stage turnout plan,” by Gabe Debenedetti in Fort Pierce, Florida: “As the last full month of this presidential contest begins, Hillary Clinton is shifting toward a pure base-turnout strategy, inching away from her all-out effort to lure disaffected Republicans in favor of a traditional get-Democrats-to-the-polls effort that mirrors Barack Obama’s 2012 game-plan. Gone are Clinton’s regular references to winning over moderate conservatives and her sly allusions to GOP leaders meant to give defecting Republicans a framework for abandoning their nominee. With 39 days to go, Brooklyn headquarters and battleground state operatives are activating the massive surrogate machinery, a heavy early voting push, and a large-scale registration offensive they think they need to secure a win in November.” http://politi.co/2dskGiZHAPPENING TODAY -- Donald Trump has a rally in Manheim, Pennsylvania, at Spooky Nook Sports at 7 p.m.THE TRUMPS -- TIFFANY PROFILE -- cover of tomorrow’s N.Y. Times Sunday Styles, “The Other Trump,” by Alessandra Stanley: “Mr. Trump’s team appears to be grooming Tiffany -- gingerly -- to pitch in on the campaign trail in the coming weeks, particularly with millennials. Her Instagram feed, which in the past was dotted with party shots of her and a group of close friends who have been called the ‘Snap Pack,’ has been cleaned up, and her Twitter account largely restricted to campaign photos and a fund-raising pitch by Tiffany, and steering clear of any Skittles-like controversies … (Tiffany did not consent to be interviewed for this article, although she did pose for its photo shoot. Instead, the campaign delivered a list of approved contacts. Other family friends who were not on the list said they were instructed not to speak without authorization.)” http://nyti.ms/2cT5YR3FOR YOUR RADAR -- “U.S. Officials: Thousands of Ground Troops Massing Around Aleppo,” by NBC News’ Courtney Kube and Abigail Williams: “The officials said they are awaiting a major ground operation as troops representing a mix of Syrian regime, Iranian Quds Force, Hezbollah, paid fighters from Iraq (Badr Brigade) and from Afghanistan gather. ... The senior U.S. officials told NBC News they hoped the rebels and residents could hold out a few more weeks, but that water is in such short supply, making the situation for those within the city’s confines more desperate.” http://nbcnews.to/2deXbfiCOURT WATCH -- “Supreme Court Faces Volatile, Even if Not Blockbuster, Docket,” by NYT’s Adam Liptak: “There are, moreover, major cases on the horizon, including ones on whether a transgender boy may use the boys’ restroom in a Virginia high school and on whether a Colorado baker may refuse to serve a same-sex couple … There is also the possibility that a dispute over the outcome of the presidential election could end up at the Supreme Court, as it did in 2000 in Bush v. Gore. ‘That is the doomsday scenario in some respects of having an eight-member court,’ said Carter G. Phillips, a lawyer with Sidley Austin. A deadlocked Supreme Court would leave in place the lower court ruling and oust the justices from their role as the final arbiters of federal law.” http://nyti.ms/2dze1kq-- “Lawyers Move Quickly After Congress Enacts Bill Allowing Suits Against Saudi Arabia,” by WSJ’s Jess Bravin: “Attorneys for Sept. 11 victim families with legal claims already pending in court said Friday they are moving quickly to take advantage of a new law exposing Saudi Arabia to potential liability for the 2001 terror attacks.” http://on.wsj.com/2dfG2CeTWO GOOD ISRAEL READS -- Susan Glasser in Jerusalem in POLITICO Magazine: “Did America Just Bury the Mideast Peace Process Along With Its Friend and Ally Shimon Peres?”: “At 93, Peres was the last living link to the era of Israel’s founders, a former prime minister, president, foreign minister and just about everything else, and the occasion was seen by the global dignitaries who came from all over to mourn him as ‘the end of the era of giants,’ as his successor in the largely ceremonial role of Israel’s president, Reuven Rivlin, put it. Peres was a giant, but of a particular sort: He was a dreamer, a believer in the future even when his hopes for peace were frustrated again and again. In short, he was an optimist.” http://politi.co/2dDtMe7-- “Obama on Peres: ‘I could somehow see myself in his story’: In eulogizing the iconic leader, the president looks to his own legacy,” by Isaac Dovere: “Shimon Peres, Muhammad Ali, Nelson Mandela: these men whom he’s now led the world’s goodbyes to were all friends — most don’t realize it, but of the three, he actually spent the most time with Peres — part of Obama’s pantheon, up there with Lincoln, Gandhi, King … ‘Each of those men did not change. What happened was their circumstances changed,’ said Valerie Jarrett ... ‘When President Obama is not in the middle of the 24-hour news cycle and all the inevitable scrutiny that comes with that, once he’s freed of all that, then he will be able to make an impact in a different way that’s just as productive. When you’re not in the daily scrum, it frees you up in a way that can be very liberating, and your impact can be profound.’” http://politi.co/2dEeVjnCASH DASH -- “They gave to Trump’s GOP rivals. Now 95% are sitting out the general election,” by LA Times’ Seema Mehta, Anthony Pesce and Maloy Moore: “Nearly 95% of those who first gave to [Donald Trump’s] GOP primary opponents are sitting out the general election, and of those who are still giving money, many are lining up behind Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton instead.” http://lat.ms/2dEjFWq-- “‘Dark money’ funds flood of political canvassers in heated Los Angeles County congressional race,” by LA Times’ Javier Panzar: “Voters in Santa Clarita and Palmdale will soon be greeted at their doors by an army of political canvassers funded by a six-figure check from a so-called dark-money group tied to the Republican party … The American Action Network, a nonprofit group that does not disclose its donors, made a $326,250 independent expenditure to a Wyoming corporation to pay for canvassers opposing Caforio, who national Democrats hope can help them win a majority in the House in November.” http://lat.ms/2dhQ3MG-- “Billy Crystal to host Broadway fundraiser for Clinton,” by Page Six’s Ian Mohr: “Comic Billy Crystal will host a Broadway fundraiser for Clinton on Oct. 17 — with performances and appearances by Julia Roberts, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hugh Jackman, Sarah Jessica Parker and Matthew Broderick, Emily Blunt, Anne Hathaway and Helen Mirren.” http://pge.sx/2dCIvpIFROM THE RSVP PAGE: To be a “Producer,” it costs $100,000; a “Director,” $50,000, “Changemaker,” $10,000, “Champion,” $5,000, “Premium Orchestra,” $2,700, “Preferred Orchestra,” $1,000 and “Preferred Mezzanine” is $500. The cheap seats of “Mezzanine,” “Balcony” and “Rear Balcony” are all sold-out. http://hrc.io/2dErU4NVALLEY TALK -- “Google Said to Tap Lazard to Review Potential Bid for Twitter,” by Bloomberg’s Alex Sherman and Mark Bergen: “In tapping Lazard Ltd., Google hasn’t indicated it will definitely make an offer for Twitter. But the move suggests that Google is evaluating the option, pitting the search giant against other potential bidders including Walt Disney Co. and Salesforce.com Inc.” http://bloom.bg/2dhIIwzCLICKER – “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker – 12 keepers: http://politi.co/2deV37kGREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Daniel Lippman, filing from Great Barrington, Mass. -- he spoke to the student body at Hotchkiss yesterday:--“John D. Rockefeller: A Character Study,” by Ida M. Tarbell in the Aug. 1906 issue of McClure’s Magazine: “John D. Rockefeller, measured by our national ambition, is the most successful man in the world — the man who has got the most of what men most want. How did he get it, the eager youth asks, and asking, strives to imitate him as nearly as ability and patience permit.” http://bit.ly/2dyD7Ef (h/t Longform.org)--“A Fatal Mistake | The Sinking of El Faro,” by Rachel Slade in Yankee Magazine: “On October 1, 2015, the container ship El Faro sailed directly into the path of Hurricane Joaquin. When it sank it took the lives of all 33 aboard, including eight New Englanders. Rachel Slade wanted to know what happened and why. You will not soon forget what she found.” http://bit.ly/2d33OvW--“Hot Mess: How Goldman Sachs Lost $1.2 Billion of Libya’s Money,” by Matthew Campbell and Kit Chellel in Bloomberg Businessweek: “When Wall Street’s most aggressive bank took on the world’s most incendiary client, someone was going to make a killing.” http://bloom.bg/2dsjSuu--“The Spanish-Speaking William F. Buckley,” by Bécquer Seguín in Dissent Magazine: “Buckley’s manner of speaking reminds us of a time when the right valued rather than vilified intellectual pretension. Today, nothing guarantees a nosedive in popular appeal in the Republican Party more than an elitist vocabulary and an ostentatious way of showing it.” http://bit.ly/2deUcU5 (h/t ALDaily.com)--“Deep Stories,” by John B. Judis in The Nation, reviewing “Strangers in Their Own Land: Anger and Mourning on the American Right,” by Arlie Russell Hochschild: “[J]ourneys into the heart of Trump Country.” http://bit.ly/2dkzy11 ... $17.43 on Amazon http://amzn.to/2dhieLB--“A New Cuba,” by The New Yorker’s Jon Lee Anderson: "President Obama’s plan normalized relations. It may also transform the nation.” http://bit.ly/2cWm63Q--“The Supreme Court After Scalia,” by The New Yorker’s Jeffrey Toobin: “There has not been a liberal majority of Justices since Nixon was President. If Hillary Clinton is elected, that will change.” http://bit.ly/2cPjK4R--“The Unbearable Smallness of Benjamin Netanyahu,” by The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg: “With the death of Shimon Peres, Israel has lost its chief optimist. And the prime minister remains paralyzed by pessimism.” http://theatln.tc/2d36qtm--“Reflections After 25 Years at the Movies,” by Roger Ebert: “In the past 25 years I have probably seen 10,000 movies and reviewed 6,000 of them. I have forgotten most of those films, I hope, but I remember those worth remembering, and they are all on the same shelf in my mind.” http://bit.ly/2dg9vqJ --“Putin Has Finally Reincarnated the KGB,” by Andrei Soldatov in Foreign Policy: “Twenty five years after the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Union’s most infamous spy agency is back in all but name.” http://atfp.co/2dkApim--“The Novelist Disguised As a Housewife,” by Ruth Franklin in N.Y. Mag: “Shirley Jackson wrote 17 books while raising four children — and she couldn’t have had a successful career without them.” http://thecut.io/2dk7wSY--“My Son, the Prince of Fashion,” by Michael Chabon in GQ: “I took my son to Paris Fashion Week, and all I got was a profound understanding of who he is, what he wants to do with his life, and how it feels to watch a grown man stride down a runway wearing shaggy yellow Muppet pants.” http://bit.ly/2cIqZus--“How Massive Cuts Have Remade The Denver Post,” by Robert Sanchez in 5280: “Journalists at the state’s largest newspaper once wondered how much more they’d have to endure. Now they’re finding out.” http://bit.ly/2dyBtOr (h/t Longreads.com)GREAT WEEKEND LISTENS, curated by Jake Sherman:--GRATEFUL DEAD on this week -- not day, sorry -- in 1980. 9/28/80. Acoustic set at the beginning of the show. Excellent quality. http://bit.ly/2cSX9GX--FRUITION on 9/19/16. They are in town tonight at the Hamilton. Go check them out. http://bit.ly/2dz8DCeTRANSITIONS -- ANN JABLON is leaving Capitol Hill after 26 years working for Massachusetts Rep. Richie Neal. A senior Republican said of Jablon: “She is one of the true greats on the Hill, the kind of person that makes the place work, cares deeply about the institution and is beloved by everyone that knows her.”-- SAM JACOBS has been promoted to executive editor of Time Digital; he is a Reuters, Newsweek and Daily Beast alum.PRESIDENT’S WEEK AHEAD – “On Monday, the President will participate in the first-ever South by South Lawn event at the White House, joining Leonardo DiCaprio and Dr. Katharine Heyhoe for a discussion on climate change. SXSL, inspired by South by Southwest, is a festival of ideas, art, and action, and brings together creators, innovators, and organizers from across the country for a day of music, film, and conversation. On Tuesday, the President will attend meetings at the White House. On Wednesday, the President will travel to the University of South Florida in Tampa, Florida to deliver remarks about the progress made by the Affordable Care Act in ensuring that all Americans have access to quality, affordable health care. Located in Hillsborough County, which has a strong health care system, USF offers a diverse set of training programs for health professions and has led efforts to sign up people for health insurance.“Following his visit to Tampa, the President will travel to the Miami, Florida area for events for Hillary for America and the Democratic Governors Association. ... On Thursday, the President will welcome the Pittsburgh Penguins to the White House to honor the team on their 2016 Stanley Cup victory. This visit will continue the tradition begun by President Obama of honoring sports teams for their efforts to give back to their communities. On Friday, the President will travel to Chicago, Illinois to attend events for the DCCC and Hillary for America ... On Sunday, the President will attend a campaign event for Tammy Duckworth before returning to Washington.”SPOTTED: Mitch McConnell at DCA this morning on a flight to Charlotte flying first class … Bret Baier at Café Milano last night ... A conversation between two Marines at DCA yesterday -- one of the Marines was Sen. Dan Sullivan from Alaska.” What they talked about http://bit.ly/2df6RDj... Dan Marino eating dinner last night at Acqua al 2 ... Rep. Louise Slaughter yesterday on American Airlines flight 5090 to Rochester N.Y., sitting in first row in first class … CBS’ Scott Pelley and Fox’s Ed Henry in first class cabin of a D.C. to N.Y. Acela Friday morning. “Pelley going casual with no tie, Henry in the tie & pocket square.” ... New York Rep. Charlie Rangel shopping in the duty free store at Shannon airport in Ireland. Three American government planes were refueling on the way back to the U.S. from Shimon Peres’s funeral in Israel.WEEKEND WEDDING – Journalist Sulome Anderson married tech consultant Jeremy Berg last weekend at her godparents’ home (Nick and Cassandra Ludington) in Palisades, NY. Anderson is the daughter of former AP reporter Terry Anderson, who was kidnapped for 6.5 years in Lebanon; she wrote “The Hostage’s Daughter: A Story of Family, Madness, and the Middle East” ($19.48 on Amazon http://amzn.to/2d3EG8k) ... How they met http://on.msnbc.com/2dl4E8W ... Pics by Chellise Michael Photography http://bit.ly/2dsUp48 ... http://bit.ly/2dz9hQ2 ... http://bit.ly/2dEimqj ... http://bit.ly/2cIkjkSSPOTTED: Paul Wood and Ruth Sherlock, Matthew Taylor, Loubna Mrie, Nicky Woolf, Elias Groll, Alex Laughlin, Sara Yasin, Anne Cooper and AP alums Don Mell, Larry Heinzerling and Nick Ludington.WELCOME TO THE WORLD – Courtney Beale, the NSC’s senior director for global engagement and special assistant to the President, and Scott Beale, CEO of the non-profit Atlas Corps, welcomed a healthy baby boy, Colin Worth Beale, on Monday. “Colin weighed 8 pounds, 11 ounces and is already learning to be a resilient kid thanks to his rambunctious 3 year old brother Elliot.” Pic http://politi.co/2cHOMzk--Tara DiJulio, senior manager of global public affairs at GE and former longtime Senate spokeswoman, and husband Scott DiJulio, president of DiJulio Contracting, “welcomed their first kiddo to the world, Michael Camden DiJulio, [yesterday]. Michael checked in weighing 7 lbs, 12 oz and 20.5 inches. Although a week late, little Mikey D made it in time for his Husky parents to catch the UW vs Stanford football game.” Pic http://politi.co/2dkAEKiBIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Trey Anastasio of Phish turned 52 … Georgia General Assembly alum Natalie Rossetti, who celebrated by flying to Peru for a hike up Machu Picchu -- pic http://bit.ly/2deVQF4 (h/t Colby Bermel)BIRTHDAYS: Tommy Andrews, director of member services for Speaker Ryan, Boehnerland alum, and the pride of Cincinnati, is 3-0 (h/t Sloane Potter) ... former President Jimmy Carter is 92 ... British Prime Minister Theresa May is 6-0 ... National Journal editor Ben Pershing is 41 ... WashPost’s Jose DelReal is 26 ... Tim Hannegan (h/t Jennifer Poersch) ... Rob Seidman, VP at Glover Park Group (h/t Liz Johnson) ... Brook Hougesen, comms director for Sen. Joni Ernst and an NRSC alum, is 29, celebrating with friends and family in Chicago (h/t Hamilton the Greyhound) ... CNN correspondent Brian Todd (h/t Kevin Bohn) …USDA’s Joanne Peters, an alum of HHS and the DNC (h/t Fabien Levy) ... Jennifer Storipan, Rep. Joyce Beatty’s current LD and counsel ... Kenny Cunningham of Prism Group ... Alex Gleason ... AEI’s Joe Antos, a CBO alum ... Nikolai Wenzel, associate professor of econ at Flagler College ... Politico’s Rose Lichtenfels and Andy Goodwin ... Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld ... Daniel Clifton, head of Strategas Research Partners’ D.C. office … Michael Knopf, senior associate at MediaLink and an Ogilvy and Mather alum (h/t Christian Emanuel) ...… DGA and Michael Bennett alum Alexandra “Ala” Fox, now a concierge at Yellowstone Club ... Cammie Croft, chief community officer and SF HQ managing director at FWD.us and alum of Amnesty International, DOE, White House and OFA digital … the other Charlie Rose, still doing fabulous work at City Year in Boston (h/t Teresa Vilmain) ... Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY) is 41 ... Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) is 43 ... Jill Rosche … Scott Rosenthal … CNN’s Evan Semones is 24 ... David Kerr ... Robert Rosen, director of philanthropic partnerships at the Gates Foundation ... CRC Public Relations SVP Mike Thompson ... Alex Reese, associate at Farella Braun + Martel LLP in SF and a John Edwards and Jeanne Shaheen alum … Theo Yedinsky … Jeremy Lott, Washington Examiner night editor … Eric Laing ... Lauren Pfeifle ... Candice Rogers ... Gretel Truong, film campaign manager at Malala Fund ... Debby Wolf ... Susan Peacock ... Jennifer Lenhart ... Lorraine Adams ... Vinh Nguyen, chief biz dev and strategy officer at Design Foundry Events ... AFP alum Chris Berg ... IBM’s Vera Rhoads.THE SHOWS, by @MattMackowiak filing from Austin:--NBC’s “Meet the Press”: Rudy Giuliani ... Robby Mook ... Glenn Beck ... Michael Moore ... Roundtable: Mark Halperin, Maria Teresa Kumar, Rich Lowry and Amy Walter.--ABC’s “This Week”: Rudy Giuliani ... Bernie Sanders ... cybersecurity discussion with Richard Clarke, Julia Ioffe, Garry Kasparov and Adam Schiff ... Roundtable: Jonathan Karl, Cokie Roberts, Sara Fagen, John Heilemann and Roland Martin.--CBS’s “Face the Nation”: Pre-empted for NFL game live from London.--“Fox News Sunday”: Gov. Chris Christie ... Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) ... Roundtable: Michael Needham, Julie Pace, Lisa Boothe and Bob Woodward ... “Power Player of the Week” with The Washington Ballet’s Julie Kent.--Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” (10am ET / 9am CT): Diana DeGette ... Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) ... Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Texas) ... Jack Welch ... Roundtable ... Democratic pollster Jessica Tarlov, The Heritage Foundation’s Steve Moore and Ed Rollins.--Fox News’ “MediaBuzz” (SUN 11am ET / 10am CT): Kellyanne Conway ... Brian Fallon ... Heidi Przybyla ... Mollie Hemingway ... Michael Tomasky.--CNN’s “Inside Politics” with John King (SUN 8am ET): Roundtable: Jackie Kucinich, Matt Viser, Abby Phillip and Manu Raju.--CNN’s “State of the Union” (9am ET / 12pm ET): Bernie Sanders ... Rudy Giuliani ... Roundtable: Van Jones, The LIBRE Initiative’s Rachel Campos-Duffy, Neera Tanden and Ryan Zinke.--CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS” (SUN 10am, 1pm ET): Gen. Michael Hayden (USAF, Ret.) ... Jeffrey Toobin ... Nigel Farage ... author and former Australian Julia Gillard (“My Story”) ... Marshall Islands president Hilda Heine.--CNN’s “Reliable Sources”: (SUN 11am ET): NewsBusters executive director Tim Graham and Daily Beast editor-in-chief and CNN political analyst John Avlon ... Kristen Soltis Anderson and Margie Omero ... WaPo’s Margaret Sullivan and The Baltimore Sun’s David Zurawik.--Univision’s “Al Punto” (SUN 10am ET / 1pm PT): Alicia Machado ... Trump campaign surrogate State Sen. Ralph Alvarado (R-Ky.) ... Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) ... former Colombian president Andrés Pastrana ... former Colombian presidential candidate and FARC kidnapping survivor Ingrid Betancourt ... Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernàndez ... singer Liliana Saumet.-C-SPAN:“The Communicators” (SAT 6:30pm ET): NHTSA administrator Mark Rosekind, questioned by Thomson Reuters’ David Shepardson … “Newsmakers”(SUN 10am ET): SEIU president Mary Kay Henry, questioned by National Journal’s Ben Geman and POLITICO’s Marianne Levine … “Q&A” (SUN 8pm & 11pm ET): Commentary Magazine editor John Podhoretz--MSNBC’s “PoliticsNation with Rev. Al Sharpton”: (SUN 8-9am ET): New York Rep. Carolyn Maloney ... Rick Tyler ... Eric Boehlert ... Reason Magazine’s Matt Welch ... MoveOn.org’s Karine Jean-Pierre ... 9-year-old girl who delivered speech at Charlotte City Council meeting Zianna Oliphant and her mother Precious Oliphant--“AM Joy”: (SUN 10am-12pm ET): Evan McMullin ... comedian Judy Gold ... Lizz Winstead ... E.J. Dionne ... Michelle Bernard ... Jonathan Capehart ... John Fugelsang ... SiriusXM host Dean Obeidallah ... Joan Walsh
Заявляется, что Google цензурирует выдачу негативных поисковых результатов про Клинтон, при этом всячески «выпячивая» критику Трампа и Сандерса
By January 2017 we may have an unprecedented situation in global politics: three women leaders in the G7. Angela Merkel of Germany and Theresa May of Great Britain may be joined by a third, Hillary Clinton of the United States. What differences, if any, can we expect in the style and substance of geopolitical talks if there are three women leaders at the table, or at least setting the agenda and perhaps the tone for their negotiating teams? It’s obviously difficult to predict, but the extensive literature on gender and how it plays out in negotiations gives us some clues. They will be strong negotiators… Researchers have conducted literally hundreds of studies to assess the differences between male and female negotiators, and most emphasize women’s deficiencies: A woman is less likely to initiate, she makes concessions too readily, she is less competitive and more risk averse, and she achieves inferior results relative to men, at least when it comes to economic outcomes. But there are very important and often overlooked caveats to this research. When women leaders negotiate on behalf of others and when they have power and status, they perform exceedingly well. Given the positions of Merkel, May, and potentially Clinton, and the fact that all are or would be acting in the best interests of their (very powerful) countries, you would therefore expect all three to be effective in any negotiation. That said, perceptions of whether they acquired their power legitimately could detract from assessments of their performance. That’s what happened to Julia Gillard, the first and only woman prime minister of Australia. Clinton could be similarly hurt by claims of a “rigged” election. …and also slightly more collaborative. One of the explanations for women’s relative underperformance in certain negotiations is that they emphasize relational outcomes over economic ones. But how accurate is this perception? There is scant evidence that women negotiators treat male and female counterparts differently, or that pairs or groups of women reach better agreements. Indeed, the opposite is often true. We saw this in the initial meeting between Theresa May and Angela Merkel. It kicked off with comments such as “We have…two women here who…just want to get on with the job” (May) and “I am sure we are both going to get on because we are both vicar’s daughters” (Merkel). But the German chancellor demonstrated her toughness and economic focus with regard to Brexit negotiations by asserting, “There will be no cherry-picking (of the deal) here.” Clinton seems to follow a similar playbook. In her autobiography Hard Choices, she emphasizes how important “face saving” is to negotiations: “Allow the other party to vent” and “spare them from public defeat” are two of the five principles she lists in the context of talks with China over a dissident. But these collaborative tactics did not stop her from earning a reputation as a formidable negotiator as a senator and U.S. secretary of state. We should expect cordial relationships between May, Merkel, and Clinton (if elected), but also hard-nosed bargaining if it is required. They’ll be criticized no matter what. Can a woman negotiator be both competent and likeable? Not very easily, the research suggests. Women are expected to demonstrate a high degree of concern for others, and they often pay a social cost when they don’t. So even if women do secure a good deal for themselves, their organization, or their country, they may be vilified for the tactics they used to do so and for the very outcome they achieved. The women leaders we’re talking about have already been subject to some rather strong critique. Merkel has been dubbed “Angie the Snake”; May (like Margaret Thatcher) has been described as an “iron lady” as well as rigid and a “bloody difficult woman to work with”; and Clinton is often called a “bitch” and “shrill.” Again we’re reminded of Australia’s Gillard, who negotiated to build coalitions but was accused of selling out and being untrustworthy, with calls to “ditch the witch.” This tension can have implications for how any results achieved in negotiation are received. When under great pressure to secure a deal that meets a variety of perhaps unrealistic expectations (Merkel and May with Brexit, Clinton with a variety of policy initiatives she’d like to initiate if elected), these women will certainly be blamed and criticized, probably more and in different ways than their male counterparts. They could shift the agenda. There is a perception that, in the political arena, women advocate for different issues. Hillary Clinton’s statement in 1995 in Beijing that “women’s rights are human rights” exemplifies this perception, and in the platform she is currently advocating, those issues figure prominently. But while there is some evidence that female representation in government helps to get more “soft” issues like this one on the agenda, that doesn’t always translate into new policy, as other political factors come into play. And leaders like Merkel, May, and Clinton obviously devote as much or more time to “hard” issues like the economy and military intervention. So, again, we expect a balance. For example, as chancellor, Merkel had shown little interest in women’s or children’s issues even though she once had responsibility for that portfolio in Helmut Kohl’s government. But she has been the leader in Europe negotiating to make it possible for Syrian migrants to find a place to settle, and, like Gillard, she may pay a price for it. Their numbers matter. The dynamics of the G7 could very well change when the number of female leaders moves from just one, Merkel, to potentially three (at least for some period of time, as Merkel faces reelection in 2017). The presence of three women may be a double-edged sword, with the potential to either strengthen or undermine their positions. Research in executive settings suggests that the mere fact of having more women at the table will increase their perceived competence, likeability, and effectiveness on an individual level, which could cause them all to have greater-than-expected power and could improve the collective intelligence of the group. And that influence could be further enhanced if they use negotiation strategies to form a coalition in support of positions they have in common. This happened in the U.S. Senate in 2013, when the three female Republican Senators collaborated to negotiate a framework to reopen the federal government. However, when women leaders do form coalitions, there can be negative consequences too. Others may assume that because they are women they are more aligned — and adversarial toward the rest of the group — than they actually are. They’ll inspire other women — and hopefully change gender stereotypes. Having a trio of female heads of state who advocate for their countries and their agendas and hold their ground in the face of insults and challenges will no doubt empower other women (and girls) to be more confident negotiators — at work and at home. Some will be inspired to speak up, ask for what they want, or play hardball in situations where they might not have done so before. Indeed, May, Merkel, and Clinton’s greatest impact on negotiations may fall outside the realm of geopolitics. Their status as role models could matter a whole lot more.
За последние несколько дней две женщины заняли важные политические должности в Японии. В воскресенье выборы губернатора Токио выиграла Юрико Коикэ, в прошлом занимавшая посты министра экологии в кабинете Дзюнъитиро Коидзуми и министра обороны в самом первом кабинете Синдзо Абэ в 2007 г. В новом кабинете С. Абэ в результате послевыборных перестановок 3 августа министром обороны стала Томоми Инада, ранее возглавлявшая политсовет правящей Либерально-демократической партии, а также упоминавшаяся среди возможных преемников С. Абэ. В истории Японии министрами обороны становились только две женщины: Ю. Коикэ и Т. Инада. Ю. Коикэ при этом стала первым в истории градоначальником Токио женского пола. Обе дамы входят в консервативную организацию Ниппон Кайги, поддерживают идею пересмотра Конституции страны и имеют имидж «железных леди». Блог «Азиатская грамота» рассматривает эти назначения во внутрияпонском и общеазиатском контексте изменений гендерного дисбаланса. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-HoonЮрико Коикэ Ю. Коикэ многим отличается от японских политиков — в частности, склонностью «плыть против течения». Так, вместо частого для политиков образования в престижных токийских «кузницах кадров» она окончила Каирский университет в Египте и университет Кансэй Гакуин в Осаке. Еще один аспект, в котором Ю. Коикэ стала первопроходцем среди женщин — выдвижение кандидатуры на председательство в ЛДП в 2008 г. Политик тогда заявила, что если, по словам Хиллари Клинтон, в США карьерному продвижению женщин препятствует невидимый барьер так называемого «стеклянного потолка», то в Японии это и вовсе «чугунная плита». Внутрипартийные выборы в итоге выиграл нынешний глава Минфина Таро Асо, а Ю. Коикэ заняла третье место. Во время крымских событий марта 2014 г. знаменитая «ястребиными» взглядами политик дистанцировалась от изначально умеренной позиции японского руководства и опубликовала статью, где напомнила об украинских корнях у 60% жителей послевоенного Итурупа и задалась вопросом о гипотетическом референдуме о независимости на оспариваемом Японией острове. В губернаторы Токио Ю. Коикэ пробилась вопреки отсутствию поддержки ЛДП, сделавшей ставку на ее соперника. Такая волевая победа свидетельствует об амбициях и потенциале политика управлять 13-миллионным (без учета агломерации) мегаполисом, составляющим примерно 1/6 ВВП страны и готовящимся принять Олимпиаду в 2020 г. Новый министр обороны Томоми Инада — член команды С. Абэ, неоднократно заявлявшего о необходимости увеличения числа женщин-управленцев как в политике, так и экономике (т.н. «womenomics»). Т. Инада знакома российским обозревателям по своему апрельскому посещению Москвы — где она, кроме прочего, прочла лекцию в МГИМО — в преддверии российско-японского саммита «без галстуков» в Сочи. Кроме того, в феврале 2016 г. политик участвовала в работе февральского Торгово-промышленного диалога Россия-Япония в Токио, в рамках которого она провела встречу с главой Минпромторга РФ Д. Мантуровым. В Азии Т. Инаду воспринимают в первую очередь как одного из консервативных «ястребов», посещающих синтоистский храм Ясукуни в Токио, что сулит настороженность в ее отношении со стороны КНР и Южной Кореи. Ходит в Ясукуни и Юрико Коикэ. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-HoonТомоми Инада Примечательно, что обе женщины возглавляли Минобороны именно при С. Абэ, хотя и в разные сроки. Кстати, у руля японского МИД дамы вставали тоже только дважды (Макико Танака и Юрико Кавагути), и оба раза — при предшественнике С. Абэ Дз. Коидзуми. В этот раз для С. Абэ речь о смене главы внешнеполитического ведомства не шла: Фумио Кисида — тоже рассматриваемый как вероятный преемник — остался продолжать урегулирование отношений как с Россией, так и с другими соседями. Помимо Т. Инады, в новом японском кабмине еще две женщины — тоже, как и Т. Инада с Ю. Коикэ, члены консервативной организации Ниппон Кайги. Пост министра внутренних дел и коммуникаций сохранила Санаэ Такаити, а Тамаё Марукаву назначили курировать Олимпиаду-2020 в Токио — на этом поприще ей предстоит сотрудничать с новым губернатором Ю. Коикэ. Можно вспомнить также, что в сентябре 2015 г. единственным соперником премьера на выборах председателя ЛДП могла стать Сэйко Нода, но она не набрала достаточной внутрипартийной поддержки. А на следующий день после ротаций в кабинете С. Абэ побороться за лидерство в крупнейшей оппозиционной Демократической партии решила ее и.о. председателя Рэнхо Мурата — политик тайваньского происхождения. Не будет преувеличением ожидать, что и Ю. Коикэ может использовать пост столичного губернатора как трамплин для заявки на премьерство — что не исключает ее соперничества с Т. Инадой, помимо других претендентов. Для сравнения, когда в 2006 г. обсуждались потенциальные преемники Дз. Коидзуми, все называемые кандидаты были мужчинами. Продвижение женщин-политиков в Японии вписывается и в международные тенденции. В Европе число женщин-глав оборонных ведомств стало притчей во языцех, а первый министр Шотландии Никола Старджен и впоследствии премьер-министр Великобритании Тереза Мэй не сходили со всех новостных хроник после Brexit. В Восточной Азии приход женщин на руководящие роли просматривается последние 10 лет. В середине нулевых репутацию жесткого международного переговорщика заслужила министр здравоохранения и заместитель премьера Госсовета КНР У И. В начале 2016 г. первой женщиной-президентом Тайваня стала Цай Инвэнь, Южную Корею с 2013 г. возглавляет Пак Кын Хе, а в Таиланде до переворота 2014 г. правила Йинглак Чиннават. В Мьянме специальный пост государственного советника создали в 2016 г. для Аун Сан Су Чжи, победившей на выборах, но в силу иностранного гражданства мужа и детей не имеющей права занимать должность президента. Премьер-министром Австралии в 2010-13 гг. была Джулия Гиллард, а первой женщиной-главой австралийского МИД с 2013 г. является Джули Бишоп. Последняя, среди прочего, отметилась дипломатией «эмодзи», раскритикованной сенатором Пенни Вонг, которая, в свою очередь, стала первым членом кабинета министров Австралии азиатского происхождения и первым австралийским федеральным политиком, заявившей о своей ЛГБТ-ориентации. В случае победы на выборах в США Хиллари Клинтон состав восточноазиатских саммитов и вовсе приблизится к гендерному паритету. Договорятся ли между собой «железные леди» АТР, многие из которых причисляются к консерваторам или «ястребам» — покажет время. Возможно, к тому времени и womenomics в Японии перестанет преимущественно сводиться к «госпожам Ватанабэ», как экономисты условно называют домохозяек, принимающих решения о семейном бюджете. То, что у специалистов по Азии и гендерным исследованиям теперь стало еще больше тем для обсуждения, это факт.