02 апреля, 18:30

Charles Gave Warns Of Possible Paradigm Shift Ahead

The following is a summary of a recent Financial Sense Newshour podcast, “Charles Gave: Possible Paradigm Shift Ahead.” Charles Gave, 74, is a Founding Partner and Chairman of GaveKal-Dragonomics Research since 2001. Before this, in 1986, Gave stepped away from pure research to move into tactical asset allocation, an active management portfolio strategy that plays off of momentum. He co-founded Cursitor-Eaton Asset Management where he was chief investment officer, managing over $10 billion of institutional investor’s money. Cursitor was sold in the mid-1990s to Alliance Capital and Gave remained with Alliance Capital until 1999. After the Dotcom crash, he reverted to his first love: research and tactical asset allocation. He left Alliance Capital to create Gavekal where he is the chairman today. During the FS Insider interview, Gave describes on what could happen to bonds, stocks, and, most importantly, investors’ portfolios when the 30-year downtrend in inflation completes an unfair low and reverses… Gave discusses his overall macro outlook, investment risks surrounding the stock-bond correlations during previous inflation cycles, and of course, how specific asset correlations which have been operating for decades — could soon hit a brick wall. In the last three decades, Gave suggests that many investors have built a portfolio around a deflationary period, which means that some sort of risk parity strategy was adopted (50% long bonds, 50% long stocks).  In other words, stocks and bonds have had a negative correlation — thus the strategy was the ideal for generating and preserving wealth. Bloomberg provides an easy explanation of what is risk-parity: “In its simplest form risk-parity involves holding two different assets, stock and bonds for example, and periodically changing the portion of each asset owned to keep the overall risk constant. On Wall Street, risk equals volatility. When the volatility of stocks jumped last week, in this example, risk-parity traders would have exchanged some of their stock holdings for bonds. Likewise, if bond market volatility increased these traders would switch assets back, bonds to stocks. Many small investors follow the risk-parity strategy without even knowing it. For instance, their investment portfolio may hold 60% stocks and 40% bonds, which they periodically rebalance to get back to those percentages.” Nevertheless, Gave firmly believes the economic tides are shifting from a deflationary environment to an inflationary cycle, which he hints that stocks and bonds could soon develop a positive correlation. Essentially, both asset classes would sell in tandem — producing losses that would be severe for the mainstream investor. There is an estimated $2 trillion lurking in the risk parity world, and the three-decade party could be soon coming to an end, as Gave is now actively warning clients the strategy “is about to stop working.”

Выбор редакции
22 марта, 23:35

Mon Dieu: A Post-Brexit U.K. Passport Made in France

“It is a national humiliation.”

15 марта, 19:03

Catalyst (CPRX) Posts In-Line Q4 Loss, Pipeline in Progress

Catalyst Pharma (CPRX) reports in-line fourth-quarter 2017 loss and is on track to resubmit its new drug application for Firdapse in the first quarter of 2018.

13 марта, 23:26

Taleb: "Best Thing For Society Is Bankruptcy Of Goldman Sachs"

Authored by George Eaton via NewStatesman.com, In Taleb’s universe, the fieriest circle of hell is reserved for bankers and neoconservatives. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an intellectual brawler, a philosophical pugilist. His new book, Skin in the Game, put me in mind of the final scene of The Godfather or Reservoir Dogs: everybody gets whacked. Bankers and bureaucrats, warmongers and wonks – all are targeted by Taleb. For the Lebanese-American thinker, their shared sin is that (with some exceptions) they lack “skin in the game”. By this, Taleb means they are insulated from the consequences of their actions: they do not have “a share of the harm” or “pay a penalty if something goes wrong”. This “asymmetry in risk bearing”, he warns, leads to “imbalances”, “black swans” (the rare but high-impact events described in his 2007 mega-seller) and “potentially, to systemic ruin”. When I meet Taleb, 57, at the Club Quarters hotel in central London I am mentally primed for conflict (journalists are another of his targets). But the self-described flâneur is courteous and polite, helpfully advising me to add an espresso to the hotel’s insufficiently strong coffee. I ask him how his deadlifts are (the stocky Taleb once boasted of lifting 400lbs). An unrelated injury, he laments, has “set him back” but he has shed fat, not muscle (“it could be that when you deadlift you’re always hungry”). “I consider myself in the same business as journalists,” Taleb says when I raise the subject of my trade. “But if you don’t take risks it becomes propaganda or PR.” Taleb, a man sometimes described as having praise only for himself, speaks admiringly of the New Statesman’s in-house philosopher John Gray. “My respect for him is so great… He, visibly, has skin in the game, he was not afraid to be a Thatcherite when it was unpopular and later an anti-Thatcherite when it was also unpopular.” In Taleb’s universe, the fieriest circle of hell is reserved for bankers and neoconservatives. “The best thing that could happen to society is the bankruptcy of Goldman Sachs,” he tells me. “Banking is rent-seeking of industrial proportions.” Taleb, who became rich as a derivatives trader, is not a foe of capitalism but of “cronyism”. “If you’re taking risks, God bless you. This is why I accept inequality. I’ve seen people go from trader to cab driver and back again.” He similarly denounces armchair interventionists. “There’s a corrective mechanism in nature: a predator typically inflicts risk on others but also on itself. Unless warmongers are more exposed to dying than others it’s the equivalent of reckless drivers being isolated from the risks of reckless driving.” Is he suggesting that, like George Orwell in Spain, neocons should have joined the Iraq frontline? “They should have kept their mouths shut,” he replies. Taleb was raised in Lebanon by a Greek Orthodox family during the 1975-90 civil war (resulting in what he calls “post-traumatic growth”). He charges the West with excessive rather than inadequate support for the Syrian rebels. “Obama is the reason my people – the Orthodox Christians of Syria – are down by half. Assad’s father blew up my house. But Assad’s enemies make him look like Mother Teresa. You’re not dealing with the Swedish parliament versus Assad: you’re dealing with real scum.” Mindful of the charge of hypocrisy, Taleb seeks to ensure that he has skin in the game. Though he lives mostly in New York, he retains a property in Lebanon and houses six Syrian refugees. He does not employ an assistant (“it moves you one step away from authenticity”), rejects copy editing of his books and refuses to accept honours and prizes (“they give you an award, then they own you”). When later that day I join Taleb at a private dinner hosted by Second Home, an east London start-up hub, he dismisses the convention of Chatham House Rules, insisting that all his remarks are on the record. As an investor, Taleb never advises others to make a trade that he has not done himself. He inverts our traditional conception of “conflicts of interest” (“no conflict, no interest,” as one Silicon Valley slogan has it). When Taleb spoke sympathetically of Brexit in 2016, he simultaneously bought a large quantity of pound sterling. Once asked during a TV appearance to comment on Microsoft, he replied: “I own no Microsoft stock… Hence I can’t talk about it.” “Those who seek money from a transaction, at least you know where they stand and what their norms are,” Taleb explains. “But those who tell you ‘I’m doing it for the benefit of humanity’, you’ve got no way of checking them.” Yet are there times when a lack of skin in the game is defensible? Taleb concedes that an exception should be made for jurors. “You don’t do it for a living, you have a cleaner opinion than someone who gets involved.” Taleb, a philosophical sceptic, influenced by Burkean and libertarian thought, observes: “I’m against universalism right there. Skin in the game is not something universal.” By now, we have been talking for 90 minutes and Taleb remarks with surprise that he is running late for another appointment. Our conversation concludes on an optimistic note: “We’ve survived 200,000 years as humans,” says Taleb. “Don’t you think there’s a reason why we survived? We’re good at risk management. And what’s our risk management? Paranoia. Optimism is not a good thing.” Is the paradox, I ask, that human pessimism offers grounds for optimism? “Exactly,” Taleb replies. “Provided psychologists don’t fuck with it.” 

Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
06 марта, 16:02

10 Insane Hole-In-Ones You’ll Never See Again

A hole in one? That's a fantasy for many, but not for these ridiculously skilled golfers.

06 марта, 01:24

Horror Stories About People Who Died Tragic Deaths While on Vacation

People die. But you don't necessarily expect to die while you're on vacation. Unfortunately for these folks, that's exactly what happened.

Выбор редакции
05 марта, 17:35

What's in Store for Catalyst (CPRX) This Earnings Season?

Investors focus will be on pipeline and regulatory updates during Catalyst's (CPRX) fourth-quarter earnings call.

Выбор редакции
04 марта, 22:47

Andrew Pozzi times finish to perfection to win world indoor gold in 60m hurdles

• Briton in second place coming over the last hurdle• Pozzi wins first gold medal at world indoor championshipsBritain made a fine finish to the world indoor championships when Andrew Pozzi won gold in the 60m hurdles by a single hundredth of a second. The 25-year-old was in second place coming over the last hurdle but beat the USA’s national champion, Jarret Eaton, with a well-timed dip for the line.It was Pozzi’s first world medal, and there will be few more popular champions with the British fans and athletes. He has been seen as a talent since first breaking through in 2012 but has endured a lot of bad injuries. Continue reading...

04 марта, 16:47

Crisis Averted: Merkel Set For 4th Term After SPD Backs Grand Coalition

One of this weekend's two major geopolitical unknowns was just resolved in favor of more continuity, and another 4 years of Angela Merkel. On Sunday morning, in a much anticipated referendum, two-thirds of rank-and-file members of Germany's Social Democratic party voted in favor of a grand coalition with the veteran leader’s conservative, or CDU, bloc, giving Angela Merkel backing for her fourth term as chancellor of Germany, and ending a five month political stalemate in Berlin, which, as the FT recaps, "could help restore Germany’s leadership role in Europe at a time of mounting political challenges, including a looming trade war with the US, rising tension over Brexit and French demands for an overhaul of the eurozone." The final result of the SPD referendum, which was announced early on Sunday, saw exactly two-thirds, or 239,604 members, voting in support of a new alliance with the centre-right, while a third, or 123,329 voted against. The turnout was 78%. Germany, SPD (S&D) referendum results: Yes: 66,02% No: 33,98% Turn-out: 78,39%#Germany #SPD #Merkel — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) March 4, 2018 Heading into the vote, and after months of debate, SPD leaders struck a coalition deal with Merkel’s CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, last month. The party then promised to submit the agreement to a vote of its 460,000-strong base, raising the prospect of a last-minute reversal that would have plunged Germany into a political crisis and probably triggered another election. Concerns were heightened after a special party conference in January, when only 56% of SPD delegates voted to back a coalition with Ms Merkel, highlighting the deep misgivings inside the party. A rejection of the coalition agreement would have dealt a blow both to Ms Merkel and to the SPD, which had strong reasons to fear another ballot. Recent surveys gave the SPD only 16 per cent of the vote, more than four points below the party’s disastrous showing at last year’s inconclusive general election. However, it was not meant to be. "We now have clarity. The SPD will join the next federal government," said Olaf Scholz, the SPD's interim leader and the man expected to become Germany’s next finance minister. Merkel welcomed the SPD decision in a tweet sent out by her party: “I congratulate the SPD for this clear result and look forward to working together for the good of our country,” the chancellor said. Next, parliament is set to hold a special session to confirm Ms Merkel’s new government on March 14, and with her 4th term now officially greenlit, should Merkel see out a full term, the chancellor will have governed Europe’s biggest economy for 16 years, matching Helmut Kohl’s record as the longest-serving German chancellor. Putting Merkel's tenure in context, the Spectator recaps some of the world leaders who have come and gone during her reign: Leaders during Angela Merkel's time as Chancellor of Germany.US: - Bush- Obama- TrumpUK: - Blair- Brown- Cameron- MayFrance: - Chirac- Sarkozy- Hollande- MacronItaly:- Prodi- Berlusconi- Monti- Letta- Renzi- Gentiloni— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) March 4, 2018 As the FT further notes, Sunday’s result will also serve as a vote of confidence in the new SPD leadership around Andrea Nahles, the current head of the SPD parliamentary group who is set to take over as party chief next month. Ms Nahles will follow in the footsteps of Martin Schulz, whose one-year tenure was marred by heavy electoral defeats, tactical mis-steps and tension with other top party leaders. And while the establishment breathed a sigh of relief after today's result, not everyone was convinced that this is the start of a new Germany. In a note by the New Statesman's George Eaton, he writes that "the SPD appears to have signed an electoral death warrant. Rather then renewing itself in opposition, it has chosen to again prop up the Christian Democrats. The Left Party and the Alternative for Germany will be further empowered to position themselves as anti-establishment outsiders." Indeed, a poll earlier this week showed just how far the once mighty SPD had fallen, with just 17% support, 13 points behind the CDU and just two ahead of the anti-immigrant AfD. For now, however, the status quo is preserved in Germany, just as the market assumed it would be. And now, attention shifts to today's Italian election, where the outcome could have far more significant consequences for Europe, although where the consensus is also for more of the same.

Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
01 марта, 15:37

Eaton upgraded to neutral from underweight at J.P. Morgan

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.

Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
28 февраля, 17:27

Eaton raises quarterly dividend 10% to 66 cents a share

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.

Выбор редакции
28 февраля, 08:00

Eaton Towers closes in on £1.5bn London listing

Africa-focused telecoms infrastructure group appoints insurance veteran as chairman

27 февраля, 18:14

Eaton Vance (EV) Beats on Q1 Earnings & Revenue Estimates

Eaton Vance's (EV) Q1 earnings reflected strong revenue growth.

Выбор редакции
23 февраля, 16:51

Is a Surprise Coming for Eaton Vance (EV) This Earnings Season?

Eaton Vance (EV) is seeing favorable earnings estimate revision activity and has a positive Zacks Earnings ESP heading into earnings season.