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22 ноября, 03:42

СМИ: латвийские политики предложили запретить в ЕС купюру с изображением Крыма

Один из лидеров Латвийской социал-демократической рабочей партии (ЛСДРП) Раймонд Лейниекс-Пуке направил в Европейский Центральный Банк письмо с предложением запретить на территории ЕС использование российской купюры в 200 рублей из-за ...

22 ноября, 03:30

7 Reasons Why Stocks No Longer Care About Political Shocks, And 2 Why They Should

From Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research Why do global equity markets ignore political shocks like Brexit, President Trump’s election or the news that Angela Merkel failed to form a government in Germany? There are plenty of good reasons, actually, which we review below. News that German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to form a new government was the big shock of the day. It is unclear if the country will have a minority coalition or call fresh snap elections. The New York Times quoted a Der Spiegel deputy bureau head as saying “This is Germany’s Brexit moment, its Trump moment”. Capital markets agreed with the Trump/Brexit comparison, sending the DAX up 0.5% on the day. Every other major European bourse closed in the green as well. As did the US. All of this got us thinking (again) about why stock markets ignore politics and government when it comes to “Crisis moments”. It wasn’t too hard to come up with several explanations. Reason #1: The Brexit vote and Trump election are fresh in investors’ minds, and they feel they know the “Crisis playbook” well at this point. Buy any notionally negative political headline first, look for the silver linings later. Muscle memory is a powerful behavioral force. Reason #2: Global equities remain in rally mode, with investors still more afraid of missing out than looking for reasons to sell. Every major global index (S&P, EAFE, Emerging Markets) is either at or near their one-year highs. And with just a few more weeks left in the year, plenty of investors are playing catch up to their ever-rising benchmarks. Reason #3: US corporate earnings still enjoy positive momentum. With Q3 earnings season almost over, FactSet reports that the most recent quarter showed 6.2% earnings growth. The companies of the S&P 500 even managed to show a little margin expansion (10 bp) in the quarter, and Q4 estimates still show a 10% bottom line growth rate. Reason #4: Any political crisis is a potential catalyst for central banks (especially the ECB in the case of today’s headlines) to remain accommodative, with Eurozone QE supporting ultra-low long term interest rates and equity valuations. German 10 Year Bunds still yield just 36 basis points, well off their July highs of 60bp. Today’s news was worth all of 0.3 bp to the German yield curve. Reason #5: Consumer confidence is still good across the US and Europe. Markets rightly feel that any “Crisis” that leaves consumer sentiment untouched is no crisis at all. OECD data on German confidence shows it at one-year highs as of October after drifting lower in prior months. Reason #6: Energy prices are still moderate. The one sort of crisis that gets investor attention ties headline-worthy events to the price of gasoline. Despite rumblings out of the Middle East, WTI crude prices are still comfortably below $60/barrel. Reason #7: Tech stocks have driven a lot of the performance in large cap US and EM this year, and this sector enjoys strong secular tailwinds. As we have outlined in prior reports, the Technology sector represents 25% of the S&P 500 by weighting, and 30% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Neither the US President nor the German Chancellor (or any other global leader we can think of) have any impact on how many people stream videos, use social media, shop online, or buy new smart phones. * * * Now, does all this mean global markets will remain impervious to political headlines? Of course not. A few thoughts on what might shift the market’s sentiment: Real Crisis #1: An absence of global leadership on tough geopolitical problems. With Angela Merkel sidelined, Europe has no single political figure to guide the region’s policy on global issues. President Trump, while still popular with his base, is a divisive figure abroad. China’s President Xi is trying to step into the role of a truly global leader, but that’s a tall ask when it comes to American or European democratic sensibilities. So who is in charge when if/when a geopolitical crisis arises? For the moment, this is not a question investors seem to ponder much. That doesn’t mean it’s not important. It’s just not important right now. Once North Korea/Iran/some other problem gets to a boil, things will be different. Real Crisis #2: Political fissures can swallow up positive catalysts. As we outlined in yesterday’s note, the Democrats may be able to retake the majority in the House during midterm elections. That makes passage of tax reform in the current Congress an imperative for US equity markets. Past November 2018, Washington may be back in gridlock mode until January 2020. Summing up, there are plenty of reasons why notional “Crises” have so little effect on global equity prices. Overall economic conditions are still good enough to spur profit growth, and interest rates remain low. Yes, things seem brittle on the political front everywhere from Stuttgart to Seattle. But until a real crisis comes along to break investor confidence, it is hard to see global equities letting any crisis go to waste

22 ноября, 02:43

Латвийские националисты требуют запретить в ЕС российские купюры с Крымом

Руководство Латвийской социал-демократической рабочей партии (ЛСДРП) обратилось в Европейский центральный банк (ЕЦБ), а также ряд других структур с требованием запретить оборот российских купюр номиналом 200 рублей на территории Евросоюза

22 ноября, 02:24

Латвия призывает запретить хождение в Евросоюзе 200-рублевых банкнот с Севастополем

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Глава Латвийской социал-демократической рабочей партии Раймонд Лейниекс-Пуке направил обращение в Европейский центральный банк, в котором потребовал ввести запрет на оборот на территории ЕС российских российских банкнот номиналом в 200, на которых изображен Севастополь

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22 ноября, 00:42

Латвийские националисты возмутились купюрой в 200 рублей

Латвийские националисты обратились в Европейский центральный банк с требованием запретить обращение в Евросоюзе двухсотрублевых купюр с изображением Севастополя.

21 ноября, 23:23

No, the Treasury curve isn’t flattening because the ECB and BoJ are ‘printing money’

My model of interest rates and currencies says that long-term yields are just an amalgam of short-term yields with a term premium tacked on. There’s nothing there about money flows from people moving money to where yields are highest. I think this matters when thinking about what the flattening yield curve signals as central banks begin to tighten globally. Related posts: The dollar bull market will eventually break something Underconsumption and the end of excess demand Some thoughts on systematic central bank policy errors

21 ноября, 22:34

Novogratz Slams Dimon: Buy Bitcoin Because "We No Longer Trust Financial Institutions"

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It must be a sign that cryptocurrencies are becoming mainstream when Bloomberg TV launches the first of a six-part series on this comparatively recent innovation. Setting the scene, Bloomberg replayed comments made in interviews from what it described as “Wall Street sceptics”, including (not surprisingly) JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, Neil Dwane of Allianz Global Investors and Severin Cabannes, SocGen’s Deputy CEO. The vignettes were peppered with sound bites like “index of money laundering” and references to tulipmania, as well as the standard establishment narrative of “blockchain over Bitcoin”. In the studio was high-profile crypto advocate, Mike Novogratz, of Galaxy Investment Partners, who is setting up a crypto investment fund (believed to be in the region of $500 million). The Bloomberg reporters asked why he’s so bullish on the space when some of his peers, like Dimon et al, are the opposite. You might have noticed all of those guys are over sixty and I’m not. There’s some truth to that. It’s very difficult for someone who didn’t grow up in a digital world to actually understand how we could be moving into a digital world. We know Dwane and that’s a bit harsh. However, this was Novogratz’s take on why Bitcoin has value. Bitcoin you can look at as digital gold. What is gold? Gold is precious metal. It could have been copper, there are lots of things on the periodic table, but way back people chose gold to have value. It has value solely because people say it has value. Bitcoin is built on an amazing technology, there’s limited supply of it, people are trusting it. Probably the most insightful part of the interview was Novogratz’s explanation about the rationale behind the crypto revolution – which was the perfect retort to the likes of Jamie Dimon and SocGen’s Deputy CEO. Remember, this whole revolution came out of a breakdown of trust. It came out of the ’08 financial crisis when people said we no longer trust financial institutions, we don’t trust governments and, in parts of the world, today still. If you’re in Venezuela, it’s really hard to trust the central bank, or in Zimbabwe. So, the decentralised revolution, which Bitcoin is really the poster child of, is a response to the breakdown in trust. The number of people calling out Domon for his Bitcoin view is growing. Morgan Stanley's CEO, James Gorman, said that Dimon was wrong about Bitcoin while our favourite pushback (before Novogratz) was Macquarie's head of AsiaPac equity strategy, Viktor Shvets. In "Macquarie Lashes Out At Dimon: "Modern Finance", Not Bitcoin, Is The Real Fraud", we quoted Shvets. When a number of financial executives recently described Bitcoin as a “fraud” akin to the tulip mania, it exhibited their apparent lack of appreciation of fundamental shifts that are altering global monetary and financial systems. If one describes Bitcoin as a fraud, how would one describe a ‘financial cloud’ that is at least 4x-5x larger than the underlying economies? It is unlikely that US$400 trillion+ of financial instruments circulating around the world would ever be repaid and most are now backed by assets that are already either worthless or are diminishing in value. How does one describe rates and  the yield curve that are either directly determined by CBs (BoJ or PBoC) or heavily influenced by them (Fed or ECB)? Back to the Novogratz interview and the Bloomberg reporter asked “Is it an investment, or is it a trade?”, citing the theft of Tether tokens overnight and the knock-on effect on Bitcoin volatility. “We are in the second or third inning of this revolution, so these are very young experiments. Each of these coins are individual eco systems, with their own use case. Bitcoin, the largest, is really the decentralised system of money, the decentralised system of the store of wealth. But there are thousands of coins, thirty or forty decent market cap coins that have their own system. Because prices have moved so far, like in anything, people are nervous so you made a whole lot of money and there’s news, you book your profits and get out. This didn’t satisfy the Bloomberg anchor who pressed Novogratz “People lost millions of dollars they’re not going to get back. How does that not put the whole model into question?” The total market cap of the crypto space is about a quarter of a trillion dollars and $30 million got hacked. So, it certainly gets people nervous. We spent a lot of time think about security of our coins, how to custody them, how to keep them safe. A few year ago, when I had a smaller amount invested, I spent a lot less time. After the Tether hack, the Bitcoin price rebounded to a new all0time high. The Bloomberg reporter noted that Etheruem reached about 35% of crypto market cap earlier this year, before drifting back to less than 20%, while Bitcoin is almost 60%. Novogratz sees Ethereum making a new high shortly. While Ethereum really had an amazing run, from a dollar two years ago, up to $400 and Bitcoin stayed on the sidelines, then Bitcoin had a big move. I think right now, for first timers entering this market, I think Bitcoin is the name they’ve heard of and that’s really kind of driving that move. Just in the last few days, Ethereum has started to move, I think it’s going to put in a new high soon. There’s a lot of positive things happening in the Ethereum eco system. Asked about his price projections for the two leading cryptos. I think we end the year at $10,000 on Bitcoin, so that’s a decent move from here. I think we end the year at close to $500 on Ethereum. Novogratz would not be drawn on the size of his crypto fund. The SEC doesn’t allow us to talk about fund raising, so I’d get into big trouble. People have been interested and receptive. Bloomberg asked him whether he’d made any bets on the recent plethora of ICOs? Sure. We’ve been betting on lots of ICOs. I’ve got a bet on WAX which is coming up. It’s a token that’s going to try to decentralise the market place for “skins”, which are the clothing, shields, swords, helmets, which gamers buy to make their avatars look prettier. This was too much for one of the Bloomberg reporters which, given Novogratz’s wry smile as he was saying it, was probably the point. He continued. How about this. There are more people that buy and sell digital clothing than there are that buy and sell Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrencies combined. And to cries of “What?” from the Bloomberg reporters. It is a giant market. Still discombobulated by the size of the skins market, the Bloomberg anchors seemed satisfied that Novogratz had given them some punchy price forecasts. However, they should have pressed him a bit harder as he told Reuters TV a week ago that Bitcoin would hit $10,000 in 3-6 months and $20,000 by the end of 2018, when the crypto market in aggregate would be worth $1 trillion. So, apart from bringing forward his $10,000 forecast slightly, the price projections weren't that punchy. 

21 ноября, 17:38

Марио Драги напугал "евробыков", - Анна Кокорева,замдиректора аналитического департамента "Альпари"

Пара евро/доллар замедлила рост после выступления Марио Драги в Европарламенте в Брюсселе. Спекулянтов смутили заявления главы ЕЦБ относительно ужесточения монетарной политики.

21 ноября, 16:19

Goldman Sachs Names Frankfurt & Paris as EU Hubs Post Brexit

Goldman Sachs (GS) plans to hire more employees for the two Eurozone sites picked as its financial hubs post Brexit.

21 ноября, 15:34

Why Cryptos Will Not Replace Gold As A Store Of Value

Why Cryptos Will Not Replace Gold As A Store Of Value - Gold versus Bitcoin: The pro-gold argument takes shape- Why cryptocurrencies will not replace gold as a store of value- Similarities between crypto and gold but that does not make them substitutes- Gold remains a highly liquid market, cryptocurrencies continue to be fragmented and difficult to spend- Bitcoin  does not make it an effective hedge against stocks- Gold coins and bars cannot be hacked and vaults are insured This weekend saw bitcoin shoot up over $8,000 and Bloomberg covered how some preppers were turning to bitcoin over gold. Does this mean it's all over for gold? Is it set to be supplanted as a safe haven by crypto currencies? Hardly. People read such information and continue to believe that gold and cryptocurrencies are substitute assets. They are not. So why are they so often pitched against one another? Bitcoin and its contemporaries clearly have a role to play, the volume of demand demonstrates this and the technology is powerful. But, that role is not as a replacement for gold as a store of value. Risk Hedge sums it up saying: "Despite what the crypto-evangelists will tell you, digital tokens will never and can never replace gold as your financial hedge." Risk Hedge provided a great summary of the major flaws and differences in the gold versus crypto debate and the six reasons are listed below. #1: Cryptocurrencies Are More Similar to a Fiat Money System Than You Think. The definition of “fiat money” is a currency that is legal tender but not backed by a physical commodity. Since the United States abandoned the gold standard in the 1970s, this has been the case with all major currencies, including the US dollar. Ever since then, US money supply has kept increasing, and so has the national debt. In contrast, the dollar’s purchasing power has been on the decline. Take a look at this historical gold price chart. The huge spike in gold prices started right around the time when the Bretton Woods agreement collapsed in 1971 and US paper dollars couldn’t be converted to gold anymore. A clear sign of the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power since the move into a pure fiat money system. It’s clear that cryptocurrencies partially fit the definition of fiat money. They may not be legal tender yet, but they’re also not backed by any sort of physical commodity. And while total supply is artificially constrained, that constraint is just... well, artificial. You can’t compare that to the physical constraint on gold’s supply. Some countries are also exploring the idea of introducing government-backed cryptocurrencies, which would take them one step closer toward fiat-currency status. As Russia, India, and Estonia are considering their own digital money, Dubai has already taken it one step further. In September, the kingdom announced that it has signed a deal to launch its own blockchain-based currency known as emCash. So ask yourself, how can you effectively hedge against a fiat money system with another type of fiat money? #2: Gold Has Always Had and Will Always Have an Accessible Liquid Market. An asset is only valuable if other people are willing to trade it in return for goods, services, or other assets. Gold is one of the most liquid assets in existence. You can convert it into cash on the spot, and its value is not bound by national borders. Gold is gold—anywhere you travel in the world, you can exchange gold for whatever the local currency is. The same cannot be said about cryptocurrencies. While they’re being accepted in more and more places, broad, mainstream acceptance is still a long way off. What makes gold so liquid is the immense size of its market. The larger the market for an asset, the more liquid it is. According to the World Gold Council, the total value of all gold ever mined is about $7.8 trillion. By comparison, the total size of the cryptocurrency market stands at about $161 billion as of this writing—and that market cap is split among 1,170 different cryptocurrencies. That’s a long shot from becoming as liquid and widely accepted as gold. #3: The Majority of Cryptocurrencies Will Be Wiped Out. Many Wall Street veterans compare the current rise of cryptocurrencies to the Internet in the early 1990s. Most stocks that had risen in the first wave of the Internet craze were wiped out after the burst of the dot-com bubble in 2000. The crash, in turn, gave rise to more sustainable Internet companies like Google and Amazon, which thrive to this day. The same will probably happen with cryptocurrencies. Most of them will get wiped out in the first serious correction. Only a few will become the standard, and nobody knows which ones at this point. And if major countries like the US jump in and create their own digital currency, they will likely make competing “private” currencies illegal. This is no different from how privately issued banknotes are illegal (although they were legal during the Free Banking Era of 1837–1863). So while it’s likely that cryptocurrencies will still be around years from now, the question is, which ones? There is no need for such guesswork when it comes to gold. #4: Lack of Security Undermines Cryptocurrencies’ Effectiveness. Security is a major drawback facing the cryptocurrency community. It seems that every other month, there is some news of a major hack involving a Bitcoin exchange. In the past few months, the relatively new cryptocurrency Ether has been a target for hackers. The combined total amount stolen has almost reached $82 million. Bitcoin, of course, has been the largest target. Based on current prices, just one robbery that took place in 2011 resulted in the hackers taking hold of over $3.7 billion worth of bitcoin—a staggering figure. With security issues surrounding cryptocurrencies still not fully rectified, their capability as an effective hedge is compromised. When was the last time you heard of a gold depository being robbed? Not to mention the fact that most depositories have full insurance coverage. #5: Hype and Speculation Continue to Drive Cryptocurrencies’ Value. Since the beginning of the year, the value of Bitcoin has more than quadrupled—a tremendous spike in value that has sent investors rushing to invest in cryptocurrencies. But could this be nothing more than a market bubble? One of the world’s most successful hedge fund managers, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, certainly seems to think so. In September 2017, he told CNBC, “It's not an effective store hold of wealth because it has volatility to it, unlike gold. Bitcoin is a highly speculative market. Bitcoin is a bubble.” The spike in Bitcoin prices seems to only lend credence to this view. With such an extreme degree of volatility, cryptocurrencies’ value as a hedge is questionable. Most people buy them for the sole reason of selling them later at higher prices. This is pure speculation, not hedging. #6: Cryptocurrencies Do Not Have Gold’s History as a Store of Value. Cryptocurrencies have been around for less than a decade, whereas gold has been used as a store of value for thousands of years. Because of this long history, we know for a fact that stocks and bonds have low or negative correlations with gold, particularly during periods of economic recession. This makes gold a powerful hedge. What little data we have on cryptocurrencies does not show the same. Consider this year alone: while the US stock market continues to run record highs, the same goes for Bitcoin. It’s true that gold has also gone up, but the correlation has been very low and, during times of recessions, tends to swing to the negative side, as you can see in the graph below. Since 2010, there have been 15 times where the S&P 500 has seen drops of 5% or more. Out of those 15 stock market downturns, Bitcoin has been down for 10 of them. How is that a good hedge? Read the original article here Related Content Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Gold and Silver For Long Term Gold Is Better Store of Value Than Bitcoin – Goldman Sachs Bitcoin and Gold – Outlook and Safe Haven? News and Commentary Gold falls on pressure from stronger dollar, rate hikes in focus (Reuters.com) Asian Stocks Advance; Dollar, Treasuries Steady (Bloomberg.com) Gold, Euro Slump As Merkel Admits “New Elections Are The Better Way” (ZeroHedge.com) Yellen Says She’ll Leave Fed Once Powell Sworn in as Chair (Bloomberg.com) No EU deposit insurance if bad loans not cut: ECB's Draghi (Reuters.com) Source: Bloomberg Gold Drops To Key Technical Support After $2 Billion Purge (ZeroHedge.com) Gold is rising despite threat of higher interest rates - Rickards (DailyReckoning.com) Thorne, Magic Money, and Cyberbucks: Three pre-Bitcoin monetary experiments (JPKoning.Blogspot.ie) The Fed Plans For The Coming Recession - Next-Generation Crazy (DollarCollapse.com) ECB wants to end deposit protection & offer savers 'appropriate amount' of their own money (RT.com) Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 21 Nov: USD 1,280.00, GBP 967.04 & EUR 1,090.69 per ounce20 Nov: USD 1,292.35, GBP 974.82 & EUR 1,096.43 per ounce17 Nov: USD 1,283.85, GBP 969.31 & EUR 1,088.19 per ounce16 Nov: USD 1,277.70, GBP 969.01 & EUR 1,085.53 per ounce15 Nov: USD 1,285.70, GBP 976.62 & EUR 1,086.29 per ounce14 Nov: USD 1,273.70, GBP 972.47 & EUR 1,086.59 per ounce13 Nov: USD 1,278.40, GBP 977.59 & EUR 1,097.89 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 21 Nov: USD 17.00, GBP 12.85 & EUR 14.50 per ounce20 Nov: USD 17.15, GBP 12.94 & EUR 14.56 per ounce17 Nov: USD 17.09, GBP 12.95 & EUR 14.49 per ounce16 Nov: USD 17.04, GBP 12.92 & EUR 14.48 per ounce15 Nov: USD 17.12, GBP 13.00 & EUR 14.45 per ounce14 Nov: USD 16.94, GBP 12.92 & EUR 14.45 per ounce13 Nov: USD 16.93, GBP 12.93 & EUR 14.53 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Money and Markets Infographic Shows Silver Most Undervalued Asset- Is New Fed Chief A “Swamp Critter Extraordinaire”?- Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe- UK Debt Crisis Is Here – Consumer Spending, Employment and Sterling Fall While Inflation Takes Off- Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection- Internet Shutdowns Show Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection- Gold Coins and Bars Saw Demand Rise 17% to 222T in Q3- Prepare For Interest Rate Rises And Global Debt Bubble Collapse- Platinum Bullion ‘May Be One Of The Only Cheap Assets Out There’- World’s Largest Gold Producer China Sees Production Fall 10%- German Investors Now World’s Largest Gold Buyers- Gold Price Reacts as Central Banks Start Major Change- Why Switzerland Could Save the World and Protect Your Gold   Important Guides For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017: Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK) Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.

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21 ноября, 15:19

Hopes for steeper European yield curve face risks

RBC analysts argue the consensus on ECB rates could be too dovish

15 августа, 15:37

Иллюзия спокойствия. Приготовления к шоковым сценариям осенью

Пять главных центральных банков мира обеспечивают до 2 трлн долл годового притока ликвидности – это сопоставимо с худшим периодом кризиса 2008-2009. Текущая интенсивность накачки первичной ликвидностью не имеет аналогов в «посткризисный период». Лупят со всех стволов совершенно безжалостно и бесцеремонно.Из этих 2 трлн долл в год примерно 90% распределено между ЕЦБ и Банком Японии. Небольшое снижение объема выкупа в национальных валютах со стороны ЕЦБ и Банка Японии с апреля 2017 в полной мере компенсируется падением доллара.Из выше представленного графика видно, что та нирвана и иллюзия спокойствия, умиротворения на рынках, которые присутствуют с 2016 года - обеспечиваются целиком и полностью беспрецедентным объемом выкупа активов так, как будто сейчас острая фаза кризиса.Есть абсолютно и однозначная корреляция между объемом и динамикой всех возможных реинкарнаций QE с поведением глобальных рынков. На примере S&P 500 и балансов пяти ЦБ (ФРС, ЕЦБ, Банк Японии, Банк Англии и ШНБ) можно заметить, что рынки растут тем интенсивнее, чем агрессивнее программа выкупа.Остановка или замедление выкупа активов со стороны ЦБ с некоторым лагом приводит к приостановке надувания рыночных пузырей.Суммарные активы центральных банков приближаются к 16 трлн долл – это в 4.5 раза больше, чем до кризиса 2008.Пертурбации в 2008-2009 кажутся совершенно ничтожными, незначительными на фоне того монетарного безумия, которое наблюдается с 2012.Основные поставщики ликвидности – это ЕЦБ, ФРС и Банк Японии. В настоящий момент их активы балансируют около 4.5 трлн долл. ЕЦБ вылетел за 5 трлн. ФРС сошел со сцены в октябре 2014, инициативу перехватил ЕЦБ с 2015, а Банк Японии активно наращивает отставание с 2013.Вы возможно пропустили, но Банк Англии запустил-таки QE еще с августа 2016. Это не идет ни в какое сравнение с потоками от ведущей тройки, но тем не менее. 10 млрд фунтов корпоративных облигаций, 65 млрд выкупа государственного долга и уже 80 млрд фунтов фондирования английских банков на специальных условиях (Term Funding Scheme) http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/Pages/apf/termfunding/data.aspxТ.е. почти 150 млрд фунтов за год – это сопоставимо с продолжительным QE от октября 2011 по 2013 на 175 млрд фунтов (75+50+50)От Швейцарского нац.банка с осени 2014 поступило 300 млрд шв.франков, большую часть из которых было направлено на покупку американских акций.Сколько поступило о ЕЦБ и Банка Японии писал ранее.К концу 2017 должны завершиться программы от ЕЦБ и Банка Англии. К этому моменту Банк Японии будет удерживать половину гос.долга Японии, что является уже запредельной концентрацией. Очевидно, что наступает момент, что решать, что будет дальше.С 2009 не было практически ни одного месяца, чтобы глобальные рынки были без QE. Когда заканчивалось от ФРС, то начинал Банк Японии и/или ЕЦБ, справедливо и обратное.Мировые рынки росли за счет байбеков, согласованной эмиссии и сговора ЦБ с первичными дилерами по поддержанию рынков, также за счет принудительного перераспределения ликвидности с долговых рынков на фондовые после обнуления ставок.Конец 2017 может стать переломным, где уже даже ФРС может пойти на невероятный шаг по сокращению баланса, что правда маловероятно.В 2017 году впервые с 2008 начал сокращаться объем байбеков со стороны корпораций – главных покупателей акций на рынке.В 4 квартале 2017 Казначейство США собирается разместить рекордный объем трежерис в 500 млрд долл.Из всего этого на фоне безумного пузыря на рынке акций с запредельными уровнями и при рекордном падении доллара нас ожидает драматический конец 2017. С очень высокой вероятностью можно ожидать 15% и более снижения S&P 500 (от 2490) и резкий рост доллара.Произойдет конвергенция многих факторов.Необходимость привлечения значительного потока капитала в трежерис без фактора ФРС на рынке, что невозможно при ралли рынке.Необходимость создания шокового сценария на рынке, чтобы оправдать новые раунды QE от ведущих ЦБ.Технический обвал на рынке после рекордной серии низковолатильных дней и безоткатного ралли с 2013 года.Поэтому готовьтесь и пристягните ремни!Кстати, советую посмотреть новый клип моей подруги из Ливана

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18 июля, 15:53

Чем занимается ЕЦБ?

Курс евро достигается максимумов с января 2015 относительно курсов ведущих торговых партнеров. Что вообще происходит с Еврозоне и с политикой ЕЦБ?С декабря 2014 действия ЕЦБ характеризуются чрезвычайно агрессивными действиями на открытом рынке по скупке всего, что «к полу не приколочено». За это время на баланс ЕЦБ пришло свыше 1.9 трлн евро активов. Интенсивность операция ЕЦБ сопоставима с периодом наибольшего свирепства ФРС США.В дополнение к этому, ЕЦБ понизил ставку до отрицательного значения в июне 2014 и усилил до минус 0.4% в марте 2016Так что же скупает ЕЦБ и какие программы?Corporate sector purchase programme – выкуп корпоративных облигаций со сроком погашения от 6-месяцев до 30-лет инвестиционного класса нефинансовых компаний, созданных в зоне евро. Программа действует с июня 2016. На 14 июля 2017 объем покупок корпоративных облигаций составил 100 млрд евро. В среднем ежемесячно скупают 7.5 млрд евро корпоративных бондов.История покупок отражена ниже.Covered bond purchase programme – Выкуп покрытых активами облигаций эмитентов Еврозоны. Оценочная стоимость всех покрытых активами облигаций составляет около 3 трлн евро для всех евро эмитентов. Со стороны ЕЦБ в период с октября 2014 выкуплено на 14 июля 2017 224 млрд евро.Средние темпы покупок имеют затухающую тенденцию: в 4 квартале 2014 были 12.5 млрд евро в месяц, в 2015 году 9.5 млрд евро, в 2016 году 5.5 млрд евро, а в 2017 чуть больше 3 млрд.ЕЦБ устанавливает лимит до 70% владения на совокупный объем эмиссии каждой конкретной облигации эмитента в рамках покрытых облигаций. Однако нет лимитов на дюрацию облигации и объем эмиссии.Asset-backed securities purchase programme – выкуп структурированных продуктов/деривативов, обеспеченных активами. Также, как и с покрытыми облигациями, лимит на транш составляет 70% В отличие от облигаций, объем выкупа смехотворный, хотя программа действует с ноября 2014. К июлю 2017 всего лишь 24.2 млрд евро, при этом с июня 2016 интенсивность покупок резко снизилась в среднем до 300 млн евро в месяц.Public sector purchase programme – основная программа ЕЦБ, через которую проходит прокачка ликвидности. Это выкуп государственных облигаций стран Еврозоны. Начало действия программы – март 2015. В первый год работы программы выкуп активов достигал 50 млрд евро в месяц, с апреля 2016 по конец 2016 резко вырос до 70 млрд, а в 2017 составляет 61 млрд, при этом с апреля 2017 объем выкупа балансирует около 50 млрд евро в месяц. Совокупный выкуп составил 1.64 трлн евро! Сведение для всех программ:С кумулятивным эффектом выходит почти 2 трлн евро для всех программ, из которых 1.64 трлн приходится на выкуп государственных облигаций.Период наибольшего обострения и агрессивности у ЕЦБ по скупке активов пришелся на апрель 2016-ноябрь 2016 – тогда скупали почти по 82 млрд евро в месяц, сейчас спустились до среднего уровня в 60 млрд евро, т.е. это под 720 млрд евро годовых.ЕЦБ планирует скупать активы, как минимум до декабря 2017, а это еще 350-380 млрд евро в рынок. Таким образом, вся программа QE от ЕЦБ может превысить 2.3 трлн евро. Для сравнения, все фазы QE от ФРС составили 3.7 трлн долларов или 3.3 трлн от равновесного уровня активов 2007 года. ЕЦБ вышел на рынок через неделю после того, как ФРС завершил свои «эпохальные» QE. Принцип согласованной эмиссии в новой нормальности заключается в том, что поступление ликвидности от ЦБ мира должно идти бесперебойно и перманентно. Как только заканчивает ФРС, начинает ЕЦБ и/или Банк Японии и наоборот.Баланс ЕЦБ достиг 4.2 трлн евроРаньше основным источников фондирования контрагентов в еврозоне были кредиты, теперь ЕЦБ перешел к современной практике - скупке активов.Структура баланса ЕЦБУчитывая, что инфляция в Еврозоне уже подходит к 2%, а финансовая и макроэкономическая ситуации остаются стабильными, мотивов для расширения или даже для сохранения программы не так много. А это значит, что как это бывает в новой нормальности, рынком и первичными дилерами будут создаваться соответствующие условия, стимулирующие ЕЦБ и другие центральные банки к продолжению монетарного безумия.Что касается курса евро, то 1.15 является избыточным, приняв во внимание сопоставление баланса ЕЦБ и ФРС, дифференциал процентных ставок и трансграничные потоки капитала. Отсюда следует евро продавать. Что касается курса валют, то это в продолжении обзора центральных банков (планирую рассмотреть остальных безумцев).