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26 мая, 21:44

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate unchanged in April

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in April was at 0.92%, unchanged from 0.92% in March.  Freddie's rate is down from 1.15% in April 2016.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. This matches last month as the lowest serious delinquency rate since May 2008.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  Click on graph for larger imageAlthough the rate is still declining, the rate of decline has slowed. Maybe the rate will decline another 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points or so to a cycle bottom, but this is pretty close to normal.Note: Fannie Mae will report for April soon.

26 мая, 19:30

70% Of Millennials Have Less Than $1,000 Saved For Buying A House

One of the frequent reasons cited for the failure of the US housing sector to rebound to its pre-recession levels, is the lack of household formation among young American adults and specifically the unwillingness, or inability, of Millennials, which last year overtook Baby Boomers as America's largest generation... ... to move out of their parents' basement, or stop renting, and purchase their own home. Now, a new study from Apartment List confirms the underlying problem: nearly 70% of young American adults, those aged 18 to 34 years old, said they have saved less than $1,000 for a down payment. This is similar to what a recent GoBanking Survey found last year, according to which 72% of "young millennials"- those between 18 and 24 years old - had $1,000 in their savings accounts and 31% have $0; a sliver (8%) have over $10,000 saved. Of the "older millennials", those between 25 and 34, 67% had less than $1,000 in their savings accounts, 33% have nothing at all, and 15% have over $10,000. As the WSJ frames it, with most millennials having saved virtually nothing for a down payment on a home "many will face steep obstacles to homeownership in the years ahead." It also means that the US housing market, traditionally the bedrock of middle-class American wealth, may never recover to levels seen during the prior economic cycle which incidentally peaked as the housing bubble burst, scarring an entire generation with the vivid memories of what happens when millions of Americans rush to overpay for homes. Which is not to say that US housing is languishing, on the contrary. As we showed earlier this week, in the first quarter of 2017, the number of California homes that sold for $1 million or more totaled 10,562 up 11.7% year over year and the highest on record for a first quarter. However, while the 1% (or even 10%) of America's wealthiest buy and sell trophy real estate among each other (or to Chinese oligarchs) with impunity, creating another bubble in luxury real estate, for the vast majority of America, it's "middle class", homeownership is becoming an increasingly elusive dream, forcing many to contend with renting indefinitely. And, going back to the original study, the culprit appears to be the inability, or unwillingness, or America's youth to save because according to Apartment List, even senior members of the age group are falling short. Nearly 40% of older millennials, those age 25 to 34, who by historical measures should already own or be a few years away from homeownership, said they are saving nothing for a down payment each month. Here is the punchline: the vast majority—some 80%—of millennials said they eventually plan to buy a home. But 72% said the primary obstacle is that they can’t afford it. That's a pretty big obstacle as the study's creator admitted. “It’s encouraging that millennials do want to buy homes. It suggests that they are delaying forming households but they’re not giving it up,” said Andrew Woo, director of data science and growth at Apartment List. “The biggest reason [they aren’t buying] is because of affordability.” This is how America's most troubled generation sees the problem in their own words: Catie Peterson, a 22-year-old graphic designer in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., said she doesn’t expect to start saving for a down payment for another five years or so. “I barely have enough savings to cover my car if it were to break down,” she said. Peterson said she pays $975 a month in rent for a small one-bedroom apartment, which is about one third of her paycheck, leaving little room to save. “Once I get settled in my career and settled in my family, I think buying a house would be reasonable.” It would, but good luck finding something that is affordable enough for the bank to give you a mortgage. As for the main reasons cited by Millennials why they are unable to save any money, these should be familiar to regular readers: they include student loan debt, rising rents and the slow starts many got to their careers during the recession. Furthermore, with many living in vibrant urban centers with ready access to restaurants, bars and entertainment might, saving seems less urgent. Furthermore, many are children of the affluent baby boomer generation and some expect their parents to give them a boost when the time comes, i.e., they expect to inherit their parents wealth. In total, some 25% of millennials ages 25 to 34 expect to receive help from friends or family, according to the survey. Still, three-quarters said they expect to receive less than $10,000, which might not be enough to close the gap. * * * It was not all bad news: the study found that some young people, if not nearly enough, may be saving more. On average, millennials who make more money save a smaller share of their incomes. Those making less than $24,000 save about 10% of their incomes, for example, while those making more than $72,000 save just 3.5%, according to the survey. Also, more millennials are finding a way to buy homes than a few years ago. First-time buyers have accounted for 42% of buyers this year, up from 38% in 2015 and 31% at the lowest point during the recent housing cycle in 2011, according to Fannie Mae (still, a first-time buyer is anyone who hasn’t owned a home in the past three years, a group that could include older people as well.) Unfortunately for the generation that represents America's future, the bad news dominates, and as the WSJ concludes many millennials face daunting odds: "less than 30% of 25- to 34-year-olds can save enough for a 10% down payment in the next three years, while just 15% could save that much within a year, according to the Apartment List survey." Of course, there is a loophole. As we reported last week, programs are being rolled out to allow first-time buyers to purchase homes with even smaller down payments.  In fact, none other than the bank which had to be bailed out less than a decade ago, Bank of America, recently announced intentions to slash down payments to help Millennials. Speaking to CNBC, BofA CEO Brian Moynihan, the proud owner of Countrywide Financial, said that his mission is to reduce mortgage down payment requirements to 10% for traditional loans.  Per CNBC: "But, you know, I think at the end of the day is people forget that, at different points in your life and different points on what you're doing in life requires you to think about housing differently as a place for you and your friends, as a place for you and maybe your significant other, and then ultimately, a place for family. That drives change. And so yes, it's taken more time. And we talked a lot about this, you know, four or five years ago, that if you require a 20% down payment, it takes just a little more time to accumulate 20% than it would 3% or none, which is what the rules were for a short period of time." "So our goal, going back to regulatory reform, is should you move the down payment requirement from 20% to 10%? Wouldn't introduce that much risk." Of course, as we pointed out last week, we are certain that Moynihan's sole purpose for wanting to lower down payments is to help those poor millennials living in mom's basement, and has nothing to do with the fact that's Bank of America (and Wells Fargo) has lost a ton of fee revenue to government-backed loans that only require a 3% down payment. Why not?  Gradually destroying lending standards worked out really well last time around. But we digress, so here is 33-year-old data analyst Gina Fontana who explained her problem so simply, even a Fed president could get it: she said she has saved a bit for a down payment but doubts she will use it anytime soon because home prices are so far out of reach. She added that she had saved enough for a 10% down payment on a $200,000 house when she was living in Philadelphia, but couldn’t buy anything in the neighborhoods she liked. Now she has moved to Berkeley, Calif., and said the area’s home prices—where starter homes can go for close to $1 million—make the odds of buying a home essentially zero. “I don’t see that ever happening,” she said. “I just prefer to travel.” Which is why it is only a matter of time before everyone throws in the towel on the housing recovery, and Goldman launches its first millennial travel-collaterialized securitization product (and its synthetic derivative).

Выбор редакции
25 мая, 20:04

Trump budget could have big news for Fannie and Freddie

Within the details of the $4.1 trillion spending plan is a change in language regarding government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Выбор редакции
24 мая, 22:10

США: индекс цен на дома FHFA в марте повысился на 0.6%

По данным Федерального агентства по финансированию жилья (FHFA) индекс цен на дома в США, покупка которых осуществлялась с участием контролируемых государством ипотечных агентств Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac, в марте повысился в месячном исчислении на 0.6% при ожидавшихся 0.5% и после повышения на 0.8% феврале.

Выбор редакции
24 мая, 21:38

США: индекс цен на дома FHFA в марте повысился на 0.6%

По данным Федерального агентства по финансированию жилья (FHFA) индекс цен на дома в США, покупка которых осуществлялась с участием контролируемых государством ипотечных агентств Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac, в марте повысился в месячном исчислении на 0.6% при ожидавшихся 0.5% и после повышения на 0.8% феврале.

24 мая, 16:15

США: индекс цен на жилье вырос в соответствии с прогнозом

Цены на жилье в США выросли на 1,4 процента в первом квартале 2017 года в соответствии с данными Федерального агентства по жилищному финансированию (FHFA). Цены на жилье выросли на 6,0 процентов с первого квартала 2016 года до первого квартала 2017 года. С поправкой на сезонные колебания индекс FHFA за март вырос на 0,6 процента с февраля. HPI рассчитывается с использованием информации о ценах продажи жилья от ипотечных кредитов, проданных или гарантированных Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac. В этом квартале FHFA подготовило видео с основными моментами. «Резкий многолетний рост цен на жилье в США продолжился в первом квартале», - сказал заместитель главного экономиста FHFA Эндрю Левентис. «Ставки по ипотеке в течение квартала оставались слегка повышенными по сравнению с большей частью прошлого года, но спрос на жилье оставался очень высоким. С учетом того, что запасы жилья все еще удерживаются на чрезвычайно низких уровнях, сильный спрос привел к еще одному исключительно большому квартальному повышению цен». Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

24 мая, 15:09

Frontrunning: May 24

Trump Meets With Pope Francis After Policy Clashes (WSJ) Fed Minutes to Offer Clues on Debate Over Path of Rate Increases (WSJ) Manchester bomber had 'proven' links to Islamic State (Reuters) U.K. Chides U.S. for Leaking Manchester Bombing Probe Details (BBG) Manchester Bomber, Salman Abedi, Is Thought to Have Traveled to Syria (NYT) 'No defeat, no pity': Manchester unites (Reuters) China Handed First Moody's Downgrade Since 1989 on Debt Risk (BBG) Defiant Duterte threatens harsh measures as thousands flee Philippines unrest (Reuters) OPEC Boss Embraces Shift to Top Diplomat (WSJ) Trump's Budgets Will Suffer a Double Whammy Thanks to Fed Policy (BBG) Icahn Guides Trump’s Policy and Scores $60 Million (BBG) Why Little Alaska Airlines Has the Happiest Customers in the Skies (BBG) In Modern Cyber War, the Spies Can Become Targets, Too (WSJ) Bahrain protester 'killed in raid on sit-in' near Shia cleric's home  (BBC) SpaceX Technician Says Concerns About Tests Got Him Fired  (BBG) FCC Won’t Take Action Against Stephen Colbert Over Trump Jokes (WSJ) Tiffany Tumbles After Jeweler Reports Surprise Sales Decline (BBG) At least 20 migrants die at sea, rescues ongoing: Italy Coast Guard (Reuters) Chocolate tied to decreased risk of irregular heart rhythm (Reuters)   Overnight Media Digest WSJ - Moody's Investors Service cut China's sovereign credit rating for the first time in nearly three decades, citing expectations that the country's financial strength will deteriorate in coming years as debt keeps rising and the economy slows. on.wsj.com/2rflRJQ - A contentious tax dispute between Australia and Chevron Corp could cost the company billions of dollars and open a new front in global efforts to crack down on the aggressive tax strategies used by many multinational corporations. on.wsj.com/2qQCE4Q - Glencore Plc has approached grain trader Bunge Ltd about combining, a deal that would give the Swiss miner a major presence in the U.S. agriculture market at a time when low crop prices have forced farming giants to scale up through mergers. on.wsj.com/2q7SZTI - Apple Inc and Nokia settled dueling lawsuits over what Apple should pay for intellectual property used in its iPhone, a surprisingly quick end to what analysts had said could have been years of litigation. on.wsj.com/2qeDS6P - The U.S. Justice Department sued Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and alleged it used illegal software to cheat on government emissions tests, escalating a battle over the company's diesel engines. on.wsj.com/2qUcYmc - Target Corp on Tuesday agreed to pay $18.5 million to resolve an investigation by state prosecutors into its massive 2013 hack, a deal that represents the largest multistate data breach settlement in history. on.wsj.com/2qUoFt5   FT - Theresa May raised the UK’s ­terror threat level from “severe” to ­“critical”, after police identified the suicide bomber who killed 22 people, including children, in Monday night’s Manchester attack as Salman Abedi. - Glencore’s agriculture arm has approached its rival Bunge about a possible takeover. The company said its agriculture unit “has made an informal approach to Bunge Limited regarding a possible consensual business combination”. - The U.S. government filed a lawsuit against Fiat Chrysler accusing it of using software to violate emissions controls. The lawsuit alleged that the carmaker failed to disclose “defeat devices”, or auxiliary emissions controls, in 2014-16 Fiat Chrysler diesel vehicles. - Uber is paying tens of millions of dollars in back-payments to drivers in New York. It had been overcharging them for over 2-1/2 years and each driver will now get $900 on average back.   NYT - Uber Technologies Inc said Tuesday that it had made a mistake in the way it calculated its commissions, at a cost of tens of millions of dollars to its New York drivers, and the company vowed to correct the practice and make the drivers whole for the lost earnings. nyti.ms/2qNru0j - Fannie Mae, the government-controlled mortgage finance giant, said on Tuesday that it had stopped selling properties to the firm, Vision Property Management, after conducting a review of the firm's rent-to-own program, which operates in more than a dozen states. nyti.ms/2qNBPcV - Moody's Investors Service downgraded its credit rating on China's sovereign debt by a notch on Wednesday, saying the steady buildup of debt in the Chinese economy would erode the country's financial strength in the coming years. nyti.ms/2qNv0Io - Target Corp will pay $18.5 million to 47 states and the District of Columbia as part of a settlement with state attorneys general over a huge security breach that compromised the data of millions of customers. nyti.ms/2qNC4Vn - Congressional Republicans greeted President Trump's first full budget on Tuesday with open hesitation or outright hostility. But it was not clear that they could come up with an alternative that could win over conservatives and moderates while clearing a path for the tax cuts and policies they have promised for years. nyti.ms/2qNyv1q - Glencore Plc, the mining and energy giant, said Tuesday that its agriculture business had made an informal takeover approach to the commodity company Bunge Ltd. nyti.ms/2qNAMcX - The U.S. federal government filed a lawsuit against Fiat Chrysler Automobiles on Tuesday, accusing it of using illegal engine-control software to enable its diesel-powered vehicles to pass emissions tests. nyti.ms/2qNyURu   Britain The Times Touchstone Innovations was approached by IP Group about a potential combination and held talks after encouragement from top shareholders and because the proposal had "certain merits". Royal Bank of Scotland has been accused of incurring "extraordinary" and "unparalleled" costs in its legal fight against shareholders over its 12 billion pound ($15.55 billion) rights issue. bit.ly/2rO77i8 The Guardian Amazon is to add more than 40 TV channels to its UK streaming service, including ITV and live sport for the first time, upping the stakes against rival Netflix and pay-TV operators such as Sky. bit.ly/2rNVYhq John Lewis and Debenhams are among the high street names backing a new credit union for the retail sector, officially launching today, which aims to help shop workers "avoid the clutches" of payday lenders. bit.ly/2rNW7Bu The Telegraph Glencore Plc has made an "informal" takeover approach for Bunge, a U.S. grain trader with a market value of around 11.6 billion pounds ($15.03 billion), including debt. bit.ly/2rO5m4z Barclays Plc is being sued for 1.6 billion pounds in damages by a U.S. credit card services firm which filed a High Court claim against the British bank for mis-selling a payment protection product at subprime credit card business Monument. bit.ly/2rO84Hl Sky News Lord Grabiner QC, who has led the board of Taveta Investments since 2002, is expected to step down from the helm of Sir Philip Green's high street group. bit.ly/2rNXK25 Major companies including the Co-op Group, Walgreens Boots Alliance and Barclays Plc have signed up to a pledge to hire 12% more older workers by 2022. bit.ly/2rNNVkB The Independent Top oil executives have donated more than 390,000 pounds to the Conservative Party since Theresa May became Prime Minister. ind.pn/2rOmF5J

24 мая, 14:07

TRUMP meets the Pope -- THEIR GIFTS to each other -- ANNIE KARNI on Trump’s good trip… so far -- MNUCHIN’s Freedom Caucus huddle -- SCOOP: Big ad buy to help Senate Ds

Listen to the Playbook Audio Briefing http://bit.ly/2rginHg ... Subscribe on iTunes http://apple.co/2eX6Eay ... Visit the online home of Playbook http://politi.co/2f51JnfGood Wednesday morning. BULLETIN -- AP at 5:35 a.m.: “MANCHESTER, England (AP) - Manchester police say they have made three more arrests over pop concert bombing.”EXCHANGE OF THE DAY, from President Donald Trump’s trip to the Vatican, per pooler Carol Lee of the Wall Street Journal: “The pope asked Melania Trump, referring to POTUS: ‘What do you give him to eat, pizza?’ She repeated ‘pizza.’ … Per Vatican pool the pope and Melania were actually talking about potizza, which apparently is a Slovenian treat. Not pizza.”PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP had a busy morning. He went to the Vatican, met the pope and then headed to Villa Taverna to meet with Italian Prime Minister Pablo Gentiloni. -- SCENES FROM THE VATICAN: From Carol Lee's pool report: "The first person pool saw POTUS introduce to Pope Francis was Rex Tillerson. 'This is my secretary of state,' POTUS explained. H.R. McMaster was next. POTUS introduced him by name. When POTUS introduced Hope Hicks to the pope, your pooler believes he told him she has worked for him for a long time. Then Dan Scavino, Brian Hook, Keith Schiller and others.TRUMP MEETS THE POPE -- PHOTOS! -- The handshake http://bit.ly/2qjg1lQ … The pair sitting at a desk http://bit.ly/2qb3Egv ... TRUMP ON THE POPE, per a pool report from Carol at the meeting with the prime minister: "He is something. We had a fantastic meeting." THE EXCHANGING OF THE GIFTS -- Trump gave the Pope a case of books from Martin Luther King Jr. The Pope gave Trump a medal by a Roman artist that he said is an olive, which is a symbol of peace. “We can use peace,” Trump said, per pooler Carol Lee. The Pope also gave Trump three books he regularly sends to Catholics “on the topics of family, the joy of the gospel and ‘care of our common home, the environment.’” The pope gave Trump Laudato Si, his encyclical on climate change and the environment. White House printout on Trump gift http://politi.co/2rghpdXANNIE KARNI IN JERUSALEM (she’s now with POTUS in Rome now) -- "How Trump's aides pulled off Middle East tour": “Trump’s relatively successful swing through the Middle East was due to the fact that, for the most part, he didn’t get in his own way. It was also the result of months of careful planning. A decision was made early on to visit a part of the world where Trump is venerated and feared, and to pack his schedule so that he mostly stayed on message and, according to one aide, ‘didn’t have time to tweet.’ But a key factor was the role played by Dina Powell, H.R. McMaster and Jared Kushner, who brought a combination of government experience and understanding that Trump wanted to get some negotiated wins on the board.“Kushner had been in talks with the Saudis about a possible visit since the early days of the transition. ... The trip served as something of a public capstone to Powell’s quick rise in a White House she joined as a domestic economic adviser primarily focused on helping Ivanka Trump navigate the role she wanted to play on women’s issues. Now Powell serves in a dual role. … Powell has been quietly elevated on the National Security Council for months, but her growing power was on full public display in the Middle East. … Powell, according to an administration official, was also instrumental in helping to craft the language Trump used in his Sunday speech on Islam, with a particular interest in his use of language about women’s rights.” http://politi.co/2rfLp9F -- BUT, BUT, BUT… “If Kushner has a Mideast peace plan, it’s a secret so far,” by Reuters’ Jeff Mason and Luke Baker: “To demonstrate its fairness, the Trump administration invited Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to the White House weeks before Trump’s trip to Israel. Kushner and Greenblatt had a two-hour breakfast in Washington with Abbas before Abbas met with Trump, according to a source familiar with the meeting. ... [B]oth sides have to be cautious about how they deal with Kushner. Nobody will want to insult someone so close to the president by dismissing a proposal out of hand, said Dan Shapiro, the U.S. ambassador to Israel for six years under President Barack Obama.” http://reut.rs/2qfsBmK HOT MICS! -- “In Trump’s private moments, it’s small talk and compliments,” by AP’s Josef Federman and Aya Batrawy in Jerusalem: “What do world leaders talk about when they are alone? Not much, it seems. President Donald Trump spent part of his two-day visit to Israel with open microphones nearby, giving the world a small glimpse into his private banter with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu between official appearances. They chatted about paint on the walls, their wives and where to stand during a ceremony. And they exchanged compliments — lots of compliments. This presidential small talk provided just some of the memorable moments of Trump’s swing through the Middle East, the first stop on his first overseas trip as president. There was an awkward Saudi sword dance, an airport selfie with a pushy Israeli lawmaker and a possible snub by Melania Trump.” http://apne.ws/2rz6tI3CLICKER – “Trump in Israel and the West Bank: The top photos from his trip,” curated by Kristen East -- 37 pix http://politi.co/2qj3zlUPLAYBOOK EXCLUSIVE -- The Senate Majority PAC’s affiliated nonprofit Majority Forward is dropping an initial $3.5 million in TV and digital ads in six states this week. Both groups are designed to bolster the Senate Democratic leadership. The ads are running in Arizona, Indiana, Nevada, Missouri, Montana and North Dakota. The spots, which are individually tailored to each state, do not mention Trump. “This is an opportunity to let working families know what their senator is doing to make a difference,” said JB Poersch, president of Majority Forward. “While some falsely harangue of a culture of ‘fake news;’ working families deserve to know the facts.” The ads in Missouri http://bit.ly/2rz38c0 … Arizona http://bit.ly/2qV8r2J … North Dakota http://bit.ly/2qUK734 … Montana http://bit.ly/2qV1oXXINSIDE MNUCHIN’S FREEDOM CAUCUS HUDDLE -- TREASURY SECRETARY SECRETARY STEVEN MNUCHIN has been all over the Hill recently. He’s met with the Tuesday Group, Ways and Means members, members of leadership and just about anyone who will listen. But, perhaps his most significant meeting was Tuesday afternoon when he huddled with the House Freedom Caucus and other conservatives. THE MAIN MESSAGES: Mnuchin threw cold water on the border-adjustment tax, a tax on imports favored by Speaker Paul Ryan. Mnuchin thinks tax reform can happen by the end of 2017 (PAGING RICH RUBIN!) And the Freedom Caucus seems willing to work with the Trump administration to expedite tax reform -- if the White House drops the BAT. COMING ATTRACTIONS -- “NATO rolls out the red carpet, buffs its image for Trump,” by AP’s Lorne Cook in Brussels: “NATO is not only rolling out the red carpet for U.S. President Donald Trump in Brussels Thursday, but the military alliance — which Trump has declared obsolete — has been busy repackaging its image and is ready to unveil a new headquarters worth 1 billion euros ($1.12 billion).“In recent months, member nations have strained to show they are ramping up defense spending as Trump has demanded. And while they agree with the chief of the alliance’s most powerful member that NATO can do more to fight terrorism, they say it can be achieved with more of the same; training and mentoring troops in Afghanistan, and equipping local forces in Iraq so they can better fight the Islamic State group themselves. … “Indeed, as part of the repackaging to be announced during Trump’s 24-hour visit to the city he branded a hellhole,’ NATO is likely to agree to join the 68-nation international coalition fighting IS. The move is symbolically important, especially since the group claimed responsibility Tuesday for a deadly explosion at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester, England. An anti-terror coordinator may also be named, but most changes will be cosmetic.” http://apne.ws/2rSw0bFTHIS WEEK’S BIG POLITICAL STORY -- “Republicans: Montana special election ‘closer than it should be’,” by Elena Schneider and Gabe Debenedetti in Great Falls: “Republican Greg Gianforte’s closing motivational speech to voters ahead of Thursday’s special House election in Montana is the same thing GOP strategists are whispering in private: ‘This race is closer than it should be.’“It’s a recurring nightmare of a pattern for Republicans around the country, as traditional GOP strongholds prove more difficult and expensive for the party to hold than it ever anticipated when President Donald Trump plucked House members like Ryan Zinke, the former Montana Republican now running the Interior Department, for his Cabinet. Gianforte is still favored to keep the seat red, but a state Trump carried by 20 percentage points last year became a battleground in the past few months.“Democrat Rob Quist, a folk singer and first-time candidate, has raised more than $6 million for his campaign, including $1 million in the past week alone as energized Democratic donors pour online cash into political causes this year. Quist hopes that enthusiasm also contributes to an outsize turnout -- as it did in special elections in Kansas and Georgia earlier this year -- for the oddly scheduled Thursday election, happening just before a holiday weekend.” http://politi.co/2qaR6pa -- WHAT REPUBLICANS WILL SAY IF THEY LOSE: Gianforte was a weak candidate in a challenging environment. WHAT THE GOP WILL SAY IF THEY WIN: We won a seat Democrats poured money into in a tough political environment with a president with flagging approval numbers. We’re well positioned for next November. THE TRUTH: People make more of special elections than they should. FOR YOUR RADAR -- “Manchester suicide bomber likely did not act alone, Britain says,” by Reuters’ Michael Holden and Andy Bruce in Manchester, England: “The Manchester suicide bomber who killed 22 people at a pop concert venue packed with children likely did not act alone, a minister said on Wednesday as soldiers were being deployed to key sites to help prevent further attacks. The official threat level in Britain was raised late on Tuesday for the first time in a decade to its highest level, ‘critical’, meaning an attack could be imminent. “Interior minister Amber Rudd said up to 3,800 soldiers would be deployed on Britain’s streets, taking on guard duties at places like Buckingham Palace and Downing Street to free up police to focus on patrols and investigatory work. ... She also said Abedi had been known to security services before the bombing. Abedi was born in Manchester in 1994 to parents of Libyan origin ...“Asked about reports that Abedi had recently returned from Libya, Rudd said she believed that had now been confirmed. French Interior Minister Gerard Collomb said British investigators had told French authorities Abedi had probably traveled to Syria as well and that he had ‘proven links’ to the Islamic State militant group.” http://reut.rs/2qaxXnq--“Who are the victims of the Manchester terror attack?” by The Daily Telegraph’s Helena Horton http://bit.ly/2qj06Uw NEW POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL -- “Poll: Voters back Russia special prosecutor,” by Steven Shepard: “Voters are applauding the appointment of a special prosecutor to investigate Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election and any connections to Donald Trump’s campaign. But, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, voters aren’t ready to begin the constitutional process of impeaching the president and removing him from office.“Nearly two-thirds of voters, 63 percent, either ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ agree with the Justice Department’s decision to appoint former FBI Director Robert Mueller to oversee the Russia probe, the poll shows. Only 21 percent of voters disagree with the decision to appoint a special counsel. The vast majority of Democratic voters, 80 percent, support the decision to appoint an outside prosecutor — but so do half of Republicans and 58 percent of independents.“On impeachment, 38 percent of voters want Congress to begin the process of removing Trump from office. A plurality, 46 percent, do not want impeachment proceedings against Trump. Sixteen percent of voters don’t know or have no opinion. Most Democratic lawmakers have discounted the possibility that Congress will work actively to remove Trump, at least given the current state of the investigation. “But Democratic voters are more eager to move forward, the poll shows: More than two-thirds, 68 percent, want Congress to begin impeachment proceedings now. Comparatively, only 12 percent of GOP voters and 33 percent of independents want Congress to launch impeachment efforts.” http://politi.co/2rgrI1IINSIDE THE ROOM -- “Trump calls Kim Jong Un a ‘madman with nuclear weapons,’ according to transcript of Duterte call,” by WaPo’s David Nakamura and Barton Gellman: “President Trump labeled North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un a ‘madman with nuclear weapons’ during a private phone conversation with Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte last month, just days before stating publicly that he would be ‘honored to meet with Kim.“In the April 29 call, Trump sought Duterte’s input on whether Kim is ‘stable or not stable’ and expressed some satisfaction in North Korea’s recent failed missile tests, noting that ‘all his rockets are crashing. That’s the good news,’ according to a transcript of the conversation made by the Philippines government on May 2 and obtained Tuesday by The Washington Post. Duterte responded that Kim is ‘playing with his bombs, his toys’ and offered that ‘his mind is not working well and he just might go crazy one moment.’ That prompted Trump to point out that the United States has ‘a lot of firepower over there,’ including ‘two nuclear submarines’ sent by the Pentagon to the region last month.” http://wapo.st/2ryyAaw -- NYT GETS DETAILS -- LEAD OF THE DAY: “President Trump praised President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines in a phone call last month for doing an ‘unbelievable job on the drug problem’ in the island nation where the government has sanctioned gunning down suspects in the streets. … Mr. Duterte responded that drugs were ‘the scourge of my nation now, and I have to do something to preserve the Filipino nation.’ Mr. Trump responded that ‘we had a previous president who did not understand that,’ an apparent reference to President Barack Obama, ‘but I understand that.’” http://nyti.ms/2rPtN1B --“Read the Full Transcript of Trump’s Call with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte,” by The Intercept’s Jeremy Scahill, Alex Emmons and Ryan Grim: http://bit.ly/2q9ZPIv -- AP alert at 5:03 a.m.: “MANILA, Philippines (AP) - Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte says ‘we are in state of emergency’ and skirmishes with militants are continuing.”NEW POLICY -- FOR RAND PAUL AND JUSTIN AMASH’S REVIEW -- “Proposed Rules Would Allow U.S. to Track and Destroy Drones,” by NYT’s Charlie Savage: “The Trump administration is asking Congress to give the federal government sweeping powers to track, hack and destroy any type of drone over domestic soil with a new exception to laws governing surveillance, computer privacy and aircraft protection, according to a document obtained by The New York Times. ... The draft bill’s language would authorize the government to summarily track, seize control of and use force to destroy any unmanned aircraft it determines may pose a security threat to an area designated for special protection.” http://nyti.ms/2qNX5iq --“Trump advisers call for privatizing some public assets to build new infrastructure,” by WaPo’s Michael Laris: “The Trump administration, determined to overhaul and modernize the nation’s infrastructure, is drafting plans to privatize some public assets such as airports, bridges, highway rest stops and other facilities, according to top officials and advisers. In his proposed budget released Tuesday, President Trump called for spending $200 billion over 10 years to ‘incentivize’ private, state and local spending on infrastructure. Trump advisers said that to entice state and local governments to sell some of their assets, the administration is considering paying them a bonus. The proceeds of the sales would then go to other infrastructure projects.” http://wapo.st/2qO1l1K BUDGET DREAMLAND -- “Trump’s Path to a Balanced Budget Paved With Accounting Gimmicks,” by Bloomberg’s Erik Wasson, Steve Dennis and Justin Sink: “Presidents have long used budget gimmicks to create the illusion they’re reducing the deficit. Donald Trump’s $4.1 billion spending plan harnesses nearly all the greatest hits. The White House said Trump’s request for fiscal 2018 would generate a fiscal surplus by 2027 after $3.6 trillion in spending reductions and $2.1 trillion in economic growth-induced revenue increases. Those conclusions rely on phantom tax increases, phony spending cuts and unrealistic growth assumptions. In other words, Trump’s budget avoids making hard choices that would be needed to get anywhere near a balanced budget.” https://bloom.bg/2rPpFi6--“Donald Trump’s Balanced Budget Goal Rests on Questionable Assumptions,” by WSJ’s Nick Timiraos: http://on.wsj.com/2qagewg -- REMEMBER: Congress has to pass a budget. If they don't, tax reform can't happen. Health care is already stalled. That's a tough message -- and reality -- for the GOP. DAN DIAMOND GETS RESULTS! “White House dials back cuts to drug control office,” by Politico Pulse author Dan Diamond: “The White House has backed down from its controversial proposal to virtually eliminate funding for the federal drug control office amid a nationwide opioid epidemic. The administration was originally eyeing a 95 percent cut to the Office of National Drug Control Policy, POLITICO first reported earlier this month. ... But after facing pressure from Republican and Democratic lawmakers — especially those in states ravaged by the opioid epidemic — the White House is proposing $369 million for the office in 2018, amounting to a 5 percent cut.” http://politi.co/2qUNC9D … Subscribe to Politico Pulse http://politi.co/2rPuYOj JOSH ROGIN in WaPo, “Graham: Trump’s State Department budget could cause ‘a lot of Benghazis’”: “The Trump administration’s fiscal 2018 State Department budget proposal irresponsibly cuts diplomacy and diplomatic security in a way that could cause ‘a lot of Benghazis,’ according to Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C), chairman of the Senate appropriations subcommittee on the State Department and foreign operations. He promised that Congress would reject the cuts. ‘If we implemented this budget, we’d have to retreat from the world and put a lot of people at risk,’ Graham said ... Overall, the Trump administration is proposing to cut the budget for the State Department and USAID, from the $54.9 billion estimated total in fiscal 2017 to $37.6 billion in fiscal 2018 -- a reduction of $17.3 billion, or 31 percent.” http://wapo.st/2qfmhvz THE RESISTANCE -- “Progressive activists to unveil new $80 million network,” by CNN’s Gregory Krieg: “The anti-Trump ‘resistance’ movement is growing -- and getting richer. At their spring gala Tuesday night, the Center for Popular Democracy Action will unveil a new $80 million effort to coordinate the work of dozens of smaller progressive groups from around the country. The activist organization's new initiative -- which, as a 501(c)(4) nonprofit political organization, is not required to disclose its donors -- arrives as part of a broader effort on the left to channel anger at the Trump administration into a lasting power base, with the ability to influence policy debates within the Democratic Party while boosting candidates on the local, state and federal levels.“The growing network spans 32 states, with 48 local partners, as part of concentrated effort to mobilize new voters -- pushing back on voter ID laws and partisan gerrymandering efforts while pumping up campaigns for automatic voter registration programs -- ahead of the 2018 midterms and 2020 general election. Organizers say they are also targeting six state legislatures they believe are ripe to flip to Democratic control.” http://cnn.it/2qa11f0THE JUICE … -- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: NATE GATTEN has been hired as SVP of government affairs for American Airlines. He will be based in D.C. and is expected to start later this summer. He currently is managing director and head of global government relations for JPMorgan Chase. He also is an alum of American Capitol Group, Fannie Mae, Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah) and the Senate Banking Committee. NOTE: Both Delta and United Airlines are still looking for new heads of their D.C. federal government affairs operations.-- THE NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION is bringing 20 executives today to D.C. to pressure Congress and the administration to drop the BAT tax. They’ll meet with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Labor Secretary Alex Acosta and two dozen members of Congress. --PENNY PRITZKER, former Obama commerce secretary, spoke last night at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Global Leadership Awards Dinner at the Four Seasons Hotel, where she focused on the economic costs of Trump’s policies: “[C]onsider the costs of the Administration’s approach to trade. The president and his team are fixated on reversing our trade deficits. It has become an obsession—one that is fundamentally misplaced. Indeed, any economist will tell you that trade deficits are not a good measure of the strength of an economy, and they are an even worse measure of whether a trade agreement is working.” Read her full remarks http://politi.co/2qaXi0r SHOT -- “Melania Trump Snubs ANOTHER Of Donald’s Attempts To Hold Her Hand” -- HuffPost http://bit.ly/2qiXeHc CHASER -- “Obama’s White House photographer [Pete Souza] trolls the Trumps’ hand-holding failures on Instagram,” by WaPo’s Amy B Wang: http://wapo.st/2qV04nNIF YOU WATCH ONE THING – Last night PBS’ “Frontline” premiered a new documentary called “Bannon’s War”: “The inside story of Trump adviser Stephen Bannon’s war — with radical Islam, Washington and White House rivals.” The film include cameos by Bob Costa, Peter Baker, Emily Bazelon, David Bossie, Alex Marlow, Joel Pollak, Abigail Hauslohner, Dan Balz, Ben Shapiro, David Urban, Josh Green, Kurt Bardella, Uri Friedman, Marc Fisher, Matt Viser, Jane Mayer and Ann Hornaday. Bannon did not participate. The full doc http://to.pbs.org/2qa0v0c UPDATE -- “Sheriff David Clarke says he’s unsure if Trump administration will still hire him after plagiarism report,” by CNN’s Nathan McDermott and Andrew Kaczynski: http://cnn.it/2qUQNhv TRUMP’S LEGAL TEAM -- “Trump set to tap longtime lawyer Kasowitz to lead legal fight,” by Josh Dawsey: “President Donald Trump plans to select Marc Kasowitz -- his longtime, New York-based lawyer -- to lead his outside legal team as an investigation of Russian election interference heats up, an administration official said. Kasowitz has represented Trump in legal matters for decades and is considered to have the president’s trust. He has a well-established rapport with Trump and has spoken to him regularly since Trump was sworn into office.“In selecting Kasowitz, Trump once again is turning to a person with extensive experience working with him — rather than a seasoned, Washington-based operator — to deal with a high profile challenge. While Kasowitz is expected to take the lead on Trump’s outside legal team, the administration source said it is not yet clear how large an operation that will be. Administration officials are still not certain of the scope of the work but expect intense action over the summer, as the probe led by FBI special counsel Robert Mueller heats up.” http://politi.co/2qa65QvFLASHBACK – BuzzFeed, March 23, “Trump’s Longtime Lawyer Is Defending Russia’s Biggest Bank: Marc E. Kasowitz, who has represented Donald Trump for more than 15 years, was recently named a lead attorney in a federal civil lawsuit against Sberbank, which is majority-owned by the Russian government,” by Anthony Cormier, Jeremy Singer-Vine and John Templon: http://bzfd.it/2qO4IFS WHAT BRAD BAUMAN IS READING -- “We’re Seth Rich’s parents. Stop politicizing our son’s murder,” by Mary Rich and Joel Rich in WaPo: “Seth’s death has been turned into a political football. Every day we wake up to new headlines, new lies, new factual errors, new people approaching us to take advantage of us and Seth’s legacy. It just won’t stop. The amount of pain and anguish this has caused us is unbearable. With every conspiratorial flare-up, we are forced to relive Seth’s murder and a small piece of us dies as more of Seth’s memory is torn away from us.” http://wapo.st/2qUDHAV -- “Hannity steps back from DNC staffer conspiracies,” by Cristiano Lima: “Fox News host Sean Hannity said on Tuesday he would step back from discussing the murder of former DNC staffer Seth Rich, hours after the slain staffer’s family made an emotional public plea for media figures to ‘stop politicizing our son’s murder.’ Hannity, who has devoted numerous segments of his program in recent weeks to an unproven conspiracy that Rich, a former staffer for the [DNC], had been murdered as retaliation for leaking documents to WikiLeaks, said he would not continue discussing the matter out of respect for Rich’s family.‘’Out of respect for the family’s wishes for now, I am not discussing this matter at this time,’ Hannity said on his program. The Fox News host said he made the decision to reign in his coverage of the killing that after speaking directly with Rich’s brother. ‘My heart, my soul, my prayer goes out to them during this very difficult time,’ he said.“Hannity’s retreat came hours after the Fox News personality seemed content to double-down on conspiracies surrounding Rich’s 2016 murder. The WikiLeaks retaliation theory has been widely debunked, and on Tuesday Fox News retracted a May 16 online article on the investigation surrounding Rich’s murder – an article Hannity heavily-promoted on his primetime cable news show.” http://politi.co/2qV3cA6VIRGINIA HEFFERNAN in POLITICO Magazine, “Trump Is America’s Most Honest President: He just can’t help himself from blurting out the truth—even when it’s self-sabotage”: “[W]e’re accustomed to thinking of Trump as chronically deceptive and flat-out wrong, and he commonly is—about crowd sizes, illegal voting, his “fine-tuned machine” of an administration, the Iraq War, 9/11 cheering, the list is endless. But someone must be putting truth serum in Trump’s second scoop of ice cream these days. No matter the stakes, he doesn’t have even a White House junior aide’s gift for circumspection, spin or truth-shading. Lately, in fact, Trump can’t shut up even when almost everything is at stake. In a town of snakes and double-agents, the president’s extreme emotional transparency would be admirable, a sign of vulnerability, sincerity, guilelessness—that is, if it weren’t so self-incriminating.” http://politi.co/2rg0gBc DEEP DIVE – BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK’s new cover story -- “When the Patient Is a Gold Mine: The Trouble With Rare-Disease Drugs,” by Benjamin Elgin, Doni Bloomfield, and Caroline Chen: “With a flagship treatment that helps fewer than 11,000 people, how is Alexion making so much money?” https://buswk.co/Alexion23 ... The cover http://bit.ly/2qOsWzE HOLLYWOODLAND -- FOR CHRIS LICHT -- “Stephen Colbert Wins 2016-17 TV Season In Late-Night, Taking On Donald Trump,” by Deadline’s Lisa de Moraes: “Colbert’s CBS Late Show will win the 2016-17 TV season in total viewers – CBS’ first win over NBC’s The Tonight Show in overall audience with a season-long host since the 1994-95 TV season.” http://bit.ly/2qf4u7Q --“Jon Stewart and HBO Cancel Animated Shorts Project,” by NYT’s John Koblin: “Mr. Stewart, the former host of ‘The Daily Show’ on Comedy Central, was brought on in November 2015 to create digital shorts that would appear on the network’s digital apps like HBO Now and HBO Go. But 18 months after signing the deal, the two have agreed to shelve it, saying that the project was significantly more complicated than both sides expected. Mr. Stewart signed a four-year contract, and he will remain at HBO to pursue other efforts.” http://nyti.ms/2rSAqPFSPOTTED Bob Woodward and frequent New York Times writer Alyson Krueger yesterday at the Watergate Hotel -- pic http://politi.co/2qUU1Q6 ... President Obama’s former LGBT liaisons -- Brian Bond, Gautam Raghavan, Aditi Hardikar, and Raffi Freedman-Gurspan -- at dinner last night with Valerie Jarrett at Kapnos Taverna -- pic http://politi.co/2qUzxJr ... Scott Pruitt talking yesterday to the American Iron and Steel Institute and Steel Manufacturers Association at the Four Seasons … newlywed David Brooks yesterday afternoon in a blue suit dragging his suitcase down Louisiana Ave., NW, in the direction of Union Station OUT AND ABOUT -- SPOTTED last night at the Harvard Kennedy School retirement party at the Graham Allison Dining Room for “soft power” professor Joe Nye, hosted by David Gergen: Ban Ki Moon, Iris Bohnet, Marshall Ganz, Richard Parker, Molly Nye and their 3 sons: Ben, John, and Dan, John Deutsch, Graham Allison, Gary Samore, Doug Elmendorf, Jeanne Marasca, Holly Sargent, granddaughter Sage Nye, Juliette Kayyem, Joe and Marina McCarthy.TRANSITIONS -- Carolyn Fiddler has her last day on Friday at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee as national communications director. On June 5, she joins Daily Kos as political editor and senior communications adviser, bringing her state politics expertise to the organization as it increases its focus on state legislative elections ahead of the next round of redistricting. … Andrew Malcolm is joining Exelon’s public advocacy team after seven years with Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.), most recently as deputy chief of staff. …... Let America Vote, a voting rights organization started by Jason Kander, has tapped Abe Rakov, Kander’s former campaign manager, to be executive director. Bernie 2016 alum Brendan Summers will be campaigns director. Sylvia Ruiz, former director of Hispanic paid media at Hillary for America, will be political director. Austin Laufersweiler, former deputy press secretary for Kander’s campaign, will be press secretary.WELCOME TO THE WORLD – Heather Hunter, executive producer for WMAL Radio in DC and contributing writer at the Daily Caller and Lifezette, and Derek Hunter, radio host on WBAL Radio in Baltimore, columnist at Townhall.com and contributing editor at the Daily Caller, post on Facebook: “At 11:18 pm [Monday] night, my husband Derek Hunter and I welcomed Quinn Carol Elizabeth Hunter into the world. She is 7 pounds, 2 ounces. Special thanks to my parents for quickly flying up after my water broke during a commercial break on my radio show at 5:30 am [Monday] morning. ... She’s finally here and adorable.” Pics http://politi.co/2qUph3V ... http://politi.co/2qadbo3BIRTHDAYS OF THE DAY: independent consultant Giovanna Gray Lockhart. How she’s celebrating: “Joe is taking me on a surprise dinner date tonight and then over the weekend we’ll have a gathering with close friends.” Read her Playbook Plus Q&A: http://politi.co/2qOsbXs … Kasie Hunt, NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent. How she’s celebrating: “Dinner with my husband at Tyber Creek Wine Bar, the newest restaurant near our house in Truxton Circle DC. Then Nats baseball on Friday with our friends Carrie Dann and Luke Dickinson and cake with my parents and sister over the weekend!” Q&A: http://politi.co/2qaU3pU BIRTHDAYS: Rory Cooper, managing director at Purple Strategies and the pride of Franklin, Mich. … Eric Schwerin, president of Rosemont Seneca Advisors ... Bob Dylan is 76 ... Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) is 68 ... Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.) is 57 ... Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.) is 63 ... Politico alum Sara Olson, now senior manager of corporate affairs at Molson Coors in Denver ... Randall Baker Whitestone III, principal and director of comms. for the Americas at Carlyle (h/t Keil) … NPR’s Tom Bowman ... Ben Milakofsky, chief of staff at The National September 11 Memorial & Museum, is 33 ... Mark Bescher, Unilever’s manager of federal gov’t relations and external affairs ... Chelsea Koski, EVP at Signal Group ... Uber’s Emily Holman ...... Bob Franken … former CT. Gov. John Rowland -- in prison again -- is 6-0 ... Deborah Hart Strober, co-author of histories of the Kennedy, Nixon and Reagan presidencies (h/t Gerald) ... UFCW’s Meredith Ritchie … Madeleine O’Connor, director of comms at the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research ... Henock Dory ... Fred Duval ... Bloomberg’s Alisa Parenti ... Tom Maher ... Rana Abtar of Al Hurra ... Natasha Lawrence ... Jane Mosbacher Morris ... Debbie Goldberg, director of development at Schwarzman Scholars … Daniel Zingale ... Jim Atwood ... Kevin Tierney (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Priscilla Presley is 72 ... Rosanne Cash is 62 (h/ts AP)

22 мая, 12:03

Важнейшие экономические события недели

Еженедельный анонс главных экономических событий недели от Insider.pro.Ключевым отчетом этой недели будут продажи нового жилья. Среди других важных отчетов — продажи на вторичном рынке недвижимости, вторая предварительная оценка ВВП США в I квартале.Понедельник, 22 маяВесь день: празднование Дня королевы Виктории в Канаде.08:00 Опережающий индекс экономики Японии за март.15:30 Индекс национальной активности ФРБ Чикаго за апрель. Значение индекса является взвешенным средним 85 различных индикаторов экономической активности в США.16:00 Розничные продажи в России за апрель.Вторник, 23 мая07:30 Индекс промышленной активности Японии за март.09:00 ВВП Германии в I квартале. Прогнозируется рост на 0,6% с учетом сезонных колебаний.10:30 Индекс деловой активности в производственном секторе Германии. Прогнозируется снижение с 58,2 до 58,0.11:00 Индекс делового климата IFO Германии за апрель. Прогнозируется увеличение с 112,9 до 113,1 пункта.11:00 Индексы деловой активности в сфере услуг, промышленности и составной ЕС за май.11:30 Чистые объемы заимствований госсектора Великобритании в апреле.12:00 Обзор финансовой стабильности в ЕС, подготовленный ЕЦБ.12:00 Слушания отчета по инфляции в Великобритании.17:00 Продажи нового жилья в США в апреле. На графике представлены продажи нового жилья с 1963 года. Согласованный прогноз: сокращение показателя с 621 до 604 тыс. с учетом сезонных факторов.17:00 Индекс производственной активности ФРБ Ричмонда за май.21:00 Выступление премьер-министра Великобритании Терезы Мэй.23:30 Недельное изменение запасов нефти в США по версии API.Среда, 24 мая01:45 Сальдо торгового баланса Новой Зеландии в апреле.03:00 Выступление главы Банка Японии Харухико Куроды.09:00 Индекс потребительской уверенности Gfk Германии за июнь.14:00 Индекс заявлений на покупку домов по ипотеке от Ассоциации ипотечных банкиров (MBA).15:45 Выступление главы ЕЦБ Марио Драги.16:00 Индекс цен на жилье FHFA за март. Ранее этот индекс строился на основе данных госкорпораций Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac о секьюритизации ипотеки при повторных продажах частных домов. Сейчас также доступен расширенный индекс.17:00 Статистика о продажах на вторичном рынке недвижимости, подготовленная Национальной ассоциацией риелторов (НАР). В апреле прогнозируется сокращение продаж с учетом сезонных факторов до 5,67 млн с 5,71 млн месяцем ранее. Ключевым пунктом отчета станет изменение числа домов, выставленных на продажу по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года.Экономист Том Лоулер оценивает продажи месяца в 5,56 млн с учетом сезонных факторов.17:00 Решение Банка Канады по процентным ставкам. Прогнозируется сохранение базовой процентной ставки на уровне 0,5%.В течение дня: Индекс заказов на проектные работы от Американского института архитекторов (опережающий индикатор ситуации на рынке коммерческой недвижимости).17:30 Изменение запасов нефти по версии Минэнерго США.21:00 Публикация протоколов заседания Федерального комитета по открытому рынку (FOMC) от 2-3 мая 2017 года.Четверг, 25 маяВесь день: Праздник Вознесения отмечается в Швейцарии, Германии, Франции.В течение дня: Встреча ОПЕК.05:00 Проект бюджета Новой Зеландии на следующий год.11:30 ВВП Великобритании в I квартале (предварительная оценка).15:30 Число первичных заявок на пособие по безработице в США. Согласованный прогноз — увеличение показателя до 237 тыс. с 232 тыс. неделей ранее.18:00 Индекс производственной активности ФРБ Канзаса за май.Пятница, 26 мая02:30 Национальный индекс потребительских цен Японии за апрель. Прогнозируется ускорение темпов инфляции с 0,2% до 0,4% в годовом исчислении.15:30 Заказы на товары длительного пользования за апрель от Бюро переписи населения. Прогнозируется снижение показателя на 0,9%.15:30 Вторая предварительная оценка ВВП США в I квартале. Согласованный прогноз: увеличение реального ВВП на 0,8% в годовом выражении по сравнению с 0,7% в первой оценке.17:00 Индекс настроений потребителей Мичиганского университета (окончательное значение за май). Согласованный прогноз: индекс снизится с 97,7 до 97,6.20:00 Число активных буровых установок в США по версии Baker Hughes.

19 мая, 20:36

HUD budget slashes housing programs, drawing protests from advocates

President Donald Trump's administration will seek to slash spending on affordable housing and community development programs, a plan that housing advocates condemned as "immoral" and a blow to voters who sent him to the White House.The administration is seeking to cut spending on affordable housing and community development and wants mortgage lenders to fund technology fixes at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, according to a budget draft obtained by POLITICO. The proposal also eliminates the Housing Trust Fund, a program financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac profits.In all, the request cuts funding by some $6 billion for fiscal year 2018, to about $40 billion. The draft, dated May 4, might not reflect the administration’s final spending request, which is expected next week. A HUD spokesman did not respond to requests for comment.The document puts increased responsibility on state and local governments and calls for the private sector to do more to meet community needs, a key goal of HUD Secretary Ben Carson.The budget “recognizes a greater role for state and local governments and the private sector in addressing community development and affordable housing needs,” the document states.Skeptics say some of those programs exist precisely because private money hasn't stepped up."Private companies won't build water and sewer; they expect the cities and counties and states to provide this infrastructure," said Matt Chase, executive director of the National Association of Counties.“They’ve taken the Heritage Foundation budget, and we’re trying to educate them on the real-world impact,” Chase said. “This is no longer a think tank exercise.”The biggest cut would eliminate the $3 billion Community Development Block Grant program, a state and local entitlement that benefits low- and moderate-income communities. The grants support a range of economic development projects, including roads, sewers and housing. The document also zeros out Choice Neighborhoods revitalization grants and the HOME Investment Partnerships Program, which leverages private funds to expand the supply of affordable housing. Rental assistance to tenants would fall by $974 million, to $19.3 billion, with the elimination of a housing program for veterans and reduced spending on Section 8 and other voucher programs. Capital funding for public housing would fall by two-thirds. Diane Yentel, president of the National Low Income Housing Coalition, called the spending plan "immoral.""The budget reflects a cruel indifference to the millions of low-income seniors, people with disabilities, families with children, veterans, and other vulnerable people who are struggling to keep a roof over their heads," Yentel said.Cuts to HUD's safety net and development spending, combined with reductions at other agencies, will hit rural communities the hardest, Chase said.“These chainsaw cuts go across the budget,” Chase said. “All these programs were to help build community infrastructure for people and places that have been left behind.”HUD's mortgage agencies, which help low-income borrowers buy homes, would get small funding increases. The administration wants to levy $30 million in fees on lenders who sell mortgages through the Federal Housing Administration, money that would be used to upgrade technology and risk-management systems. The budget includes a slight increase in staffing for Ginnie Mae, which pools and sells FHA loans and is second-largest provider of U.S. mortgage liquidity.The draft budget maintains funding to support and enforce the Fair Housing Act, a Civil Rights-era law to end housing discrimination. Before becoming HUD secretary, Carson had called a recent fair housing rule a "social-engineering" scheme.

Выбор редакции
14 мая, 20:19

"Get Rich Quick In Virginia"

Submitted by Mish Shedlock of MishTalk In response to California Banker: Views from the Business Banker’s Chair I received a pair of emails from readers tuned into Virginia. Livs in Virginia (LIV) writes … Hi Mish   Richmond VA, where I live, is inundated with radio commercials to get rich quick by flipping houses. And I’ve seen articles in the paper about flippers. I, too, viewed this as being indicative of a top.   We’ve also seen a huge surge in new restaurants.   There has been a really big surge has been in microbreweries, and its now in the bubble phase, something not seen since 1996. The GM of Legend Brewing, which has been around for 22 years, told me he’s counted > 25 new breweries opened in the greater Richmond area. Most of these have no distribution, no access to shelf space in grocery stores, and are simply trying to find a niche in a crowded market. They will be washed out in the next recession; good brands and brewing tanks will sell for 10 cents on the dollar. I suspect that most of these ventures have been funded with private capital and SBA loans rather than bank lending, but I have no hard data to support this view.   And my local banker has repeatedly told me loan demand is as strong as he’s seen in years. The COO of the local ‘bankers bank’ tells me that loan covenants and pricing have been getting weaker for several years due to competition for good loans. The bankers will lend right into the top and won’t recognize the top until it’s too late. Happens every time. And the small banks have taken much duration risk in the investment portfolios in search of yield.   There has been a huge 25-year wave of converting old buildings in Richmond into apartments and I’d say in the last 5 years that move has gone into warp drive. I’ve wondered for the past 5 years how many apartments Richmond can possibly support. And if there should ever be some event (e.g. riots) that change the perception of young adults to not wanting to live in the inner city, then good luck finding a bid. FNMA has helped fuel this boom by offering long term cheap fixed rate, nonrecourse financing.   LIV State Tax Plunge Meanwhile, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reports State Revenue Growth Loses Steam in April as Income Tax Payments Lag. Total revenues fell by 3.4 percent compared with the same month a year ago, but that’s not what most concerns budget officials. They’re wondering why estimated and final income tax payments from nonwithholding fell almost 18 percent in the month and 4.2 percent for the year to date.   “It’s probably weaker than we’d like to see,” Secretary of Finance Richard D. “Ric” Brown said in an interview.   State revenues had come out of March strong, growing 4.6 percent for the first nine months of the fiscal year compared with an annual projection of 2.9 percent. The results in April dropped the growth rate for the year to 3.6 percent.   “I think the optimism in March gave way to the reality in April,” House Appropriations Chairman S. Chris Jones, R-Suffolk, said Thursday. What can possibly go wrong?

11 мая, 02:46

Fannie, Freddie regulator says may have to retain earnings

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have to retain billions of dollars in profits rather than turn them over to the U.S. Treasury, the regulator for the companies said on Wednesday as he contemplated how to avoid a fresh taxpayer bailout. Melvin Watt, the supervisor for Fannie and Freddie, said such a move would be aimed at soothing investor jitters. Markets could be rattled if it seemed the housing finance companies needed more government support, Watt said in congressional testimony obtained by Reuters.

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10 мая, 03:30

Are US Taxpayers Now On The Hook For Risky Wall Street Real-Estate-Backed Bonds?

Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog, I’m fairly certain very few of you have heard of broker price opinions, or BPOs, but it’s something I think we should all become aware of given the influence of BPOs in the market for valuing residential real estate securitized bonds. Before we get to that, let’s revisit a little contemporary American robber baron history. In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. financial crisis, financial oligarchs immediately got to work helping Main Street climb out of the Wall Street created ditch by buying foreclosed homes from hordes of newly destitute Americans and then renting them back to those same people. I wrote many articles about this trend over the years, starting with the January 2013 piece, America Meet Your New Slumlord: Wall Street. Here’s an excerpt: Well they aren’t really your “new” slumlord in the sense you have been debt slaves to the financials system for decades.  What I really mean is that it is now becoming overt and literal.  Literal because financiers are now the main players in the real estate market and are buying all the homes ordinary citizens were kicked out of over the past few years.  Yep, we bailed out the financial system so that financiers with access to cheap credit can buy up all of America’s real estate so that they can then rent it back to you later. Fast forward a few years, and private equity is frantically packaging these real estate rental properties into bonds. In order to value the real estate collateral you need some sort of appraisal, but the normal process of actually looking at properties is seen as too costly and time consuming, so market players are cutting corners by using “broker price opinions,” or BPOs. As Bloomberg reports, this practice is coming under increased scrutiny and for good reason: U.S. securities regulators are investigating whether bonds backed by single-family rental homes and sold by Wall Street’s biggest residential landlords used overvalued property assessments.   Radian Group Inc.’s Green River Capital unit is one of the market participants that received a request for information from the Securities and Exchange Commission in March about broker price opinions, or BPOs, the company said in a regulatory filinglate Friday. Green River provides BPOs that are used to value real estate in securitizations.   The agency has been looking at whether BPOs were wrongly inflated, and similar letters were sent to other companies, potentially serving as a starting point for an industrywide probe, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. The person asked not to be identified because the matter is private.   Green River is one of several firms that provide BPOs to the units of private-equity firms and other investors who bought up hundreds of thousands of properties in cities across the U.S. after the housing bubble burst. Many of them focused on distressed homes whose owners were evicted during the Great Recession. Never forget, what’s good for Wall Street is good for Main Street! Also, they hate us for our freedoms. Broker price opinions are a cheaper and less-stringent way to evaluate what a property is worth than an appraisal. Property valuations are a sensitive subject in the housing industry because regulators said inflated appraisals contributed to the housing bubble a decade ago.   The biggest private-equity landlords, led by Blackstone Group LP’s Invitation Homes, have sold more than $15 billion in bonds since 2013 backed by some 120,000 rental homes, according to data from Morningstar, and many of those deals were valued using BPOs. One recent bond deal tied to Invitation Homes was backed by guarantees from U.S. taxpayers. Please tell me this is a joke. The BPOs are key elements in securitizations, determining basic figures such as how much rent to charge tenants, how much leverage and risk is embedded in the deal and how much investors could recover if the bonds go sour. Many of the securities were assigned AAA grades and sold off to investors such as pension funds. Is this 2006 or 2017? No here’s where it gets truly disturbing. In traditional real estate deals, these opinions help establish sales prices, but in these bond deals, they help estimate how much could be recovered in a liquidation. Some analysts say the BPOs they don’t take into account a possible plunge in home prices, and the values tend to be more optimistic than a full appraisal. Unlike appraisals, BPOs also aren’t necessarily done by a licensed professional, nor does the inspector always go inside to look around, which is standard procedure for an appraisal.   In one April securities offering of about $944.5 million, Green River submitted BPOs that relied on “drive-by” evaluations, and homes were “assumed to be repaired and in good condition,” according to a deal prospectus issued by Fannie Mae. The BPO “is not intended to be a representation as to the past, present or future market values of any of the properties.”   The underlying mortgage in that deal, tied to rental properties owned by Invitation Homes, was guaranteed by Fannie Mae. That’s the first time a taxpayer-backed home finance company has guaranteed such a loan. Freddie Mac is also looking into getting involved in the market by providing its guarantee.   When private equity landlords opted to use BPOs instead of appraisals in their securitizations, some investors expressed skepticism and bond graders applied discounts to the BPOs. Moody’s Investors Service, for example, applied a 15 percent haircut to BPO valuations when grading a transaction last August, citing inherent risks of using BPOs on residential properties instead of an appraisal. I’m sure it’ll be fine, and if not who cares? The U.S. taxpayer is always available for a good fleecing.

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05 мая, 15:07

Чистая прибыль Fannie Mae в I квартале выросла в 2,4 раза

Американский ипотечный гигант Fannie Mae по итогам первого квартала 2017 года зафиксировал чистую прибыль в размере 2,773 миллиарда долларов, что в 2,44 раза больше по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года, говорится в сообщении компании.

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04 мая, 13:00

Trump Still Allowing Fannie, Freddie To Be Robbed To Pay For Obamacare

In response to a direct question, Mnuchin acknowledged it was true President Obama did engineer the “Net Worth Sweep” (NWS) in August 2012 to divert funds from the two Government Sponsored Entities (GSEs) to pay for Obamacare, after Congress refused to fund the low-income insurance subsidies critical to keep afloat the Affordable Care Act (ACA). https://www.infowars.com/treasury-secretary-confirms-infowars-com-reporting-on-obamacare-looting-scheme-theft/ http://dailycaller.com/2017/03/23/president-trump-should-stop-obama-scheme-that-steals-money-from-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-for-obamacare/ Help us spread the word about the liberty movement, we're reaching millions help us reach millions more. Share the free live video feed link with your friends & family: http://www.infowars.com/show Follow Alex on TWITTER - https://twitter.com/RealAlexJones Like Alex on FACEBOOK - https://www.facebook.com/AlexanderEmerickJones Infowars on G+ - https://plus.google.com/+infowars/ :Web: http://www.infowars.com/ http://www.prisonplanet.com/ http://www.infowars.net/ :Subscribe and share your login with 20 friends: http://www.prisonplanet.tv http://www.InfowarsNews.com Visit http://www.InfowarsLife.com to get the products Alex Jones and his family trust, while supporting the growth of our expanding media operation. [http://bit.ly/2dhnhbS] Biome Defense™ [http://bit.ly/2bnEj91] Bio-True Selenium™ [http://bit.ly/1WYw8jp] Vitamin Mineral Fusion™ [http://bit.ly/1QYBNBv] Joint Formula™ [http://bit.ly/1nNuR3r] Anthroplex™ [http://bit.ly/1ljfWfJ] Living Defense™ [http://bit.ly/1Iobcj2] Deep Cleanse™ [http://bit.ly/1DsyQ6i] Knockout™ [http://bit.ly/1Kr1yfz] Brain Force™ [http://bit.ly/1R5gsqk] Liver Shield™ [http://bit.ly/1cOwQix] ProstaGuard™ [http://bit.ly/1mnchEz3] Child Ease™ [http://bit.ly/1xs9F6t] WinterSunD3™ [http://bit.ly/1L3gDSO] Ancient Defense™ [http://bit.ly/1EHbA6E] Secret-12™ [http://bit.ly/1txsOge] Oxy Powder™ [http://bit.ly/1s6cphV] Occu Power™ [http://bit.ly/1rGOLsG] DNA Force™ [http://bit.ly/1nIngBb] X2 Survival Shield™ [http://bit.ly/1kaXxKL] Super Female Vitality™ [http://bit.ly/1mhAKCO] Lung Cleanse™ [http://bit.ly/1mGbikx] Silver-Bullet - Colloidal Silver™ [http://bit.ly/1xcoUfo] Super Male Vitality™ [http://bit.ly/1z5BCP9] Survival Shield - Nascent Iodine™ [http://bit.ly/1o4sQtc] Patriot Blend 100% Organic Coffee™ [http://bit.ly/1iVL6HB] Immune Support 100% Organic Coffee™ All available at - http://www.infowarsshop.com/ INFOWARS HEALTH - START GETTING HEALTHY BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE - http://www.infowarshealth.com/ Newsletter Sign up / Infowars Underground Insider : http://www.infowars.com/newsletter The Alex Jones Show © copyright, Free Speech Systems .LLC 1995 - 2017 All Rights Reserved. May use for fair use and educational purposes

02 мая, 17:13

Fannie, Freddie Profit Payments Should Continue, Treasury Says

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin wants mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to continue sending their profits to the government under the terms of their bailout agreements, a spokeswoman ...

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01 мая, 04:58

From Fiat To Fannie Mae: Hurbis Leaves FCA To Become Quicken Loans CMO

The former head of North American brand communications and advertising for FCA's Fiat brand has just taken over as chief marketing officer at Quicken Loans, the nation's No. 2 home lender.

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30 апреля, 03:30

Peter Schiff: Damn The Deficits, Huge Tax Cuts Ahead!

Authored by Peter Schiff via Euro Pacific Capital, Donald Trump has made good on one of his most audacious campaign promises by submitting what he describes as the biggest tax cut in U.S. History. For once, at least, this does not appear to be Trumpian braggadocio. It really may be the mother of all tax cuts. But if passed, what may this bunker buster do to the economy? While I have rarely met a tax cut I didn’t like, this one just may be more likely to send the economy into a downward spiral than it is to send up to orbit. As I mentioned in my January commentary, Donald Trump’s big-spending, tax-cutting campaign rhetoric threatened to make him the biggest borrower in presidential history. He comes to office at a particularly vulnerable time for budget dynamics. After contracting by nearly two thirds from 2010 to 2015 (from the mind-bending $1.3 trillion to the merely enormous $438 billion), the Federal deficit started expanding again in 2016, moving up to $587 billion (Govt. Publishing Office, Office of Management & Budget (OMB). Current projections have it going up nearly every year over the next two decades. The Congressional Budget Office expects it to permanently surpass $1 trillion annually by 2021 or 2022. But these ominous forecasts were made well before anyone thought Trump had a snowball’s chance of ever becoming president. Now that he is in the office, those projections will be the floor. The ceiling is anyone’s guess. The forecasts assume that the taxing and spending laws in place during the Obama Administration won’t change. The steep increase in projected deficits towards the end of this decade and into the next is largely driven by the retirement of the Baby Boom generation, which will lead to simultaneous increases in entitlement spending and decreases in tax revenue. This brick wall has been hiding in plain sight for decades but the can-kickers in Washington have serially failed to do anything to avert the inevitable collision. (These forecasts also optimistically assume that the economy never again enters recession, inflation never again rears its ugly head, and that our creditors never get concerned enough about our growing debt to demand a premium for the risk of financing it.) But now that Trump occupies the Oval office, this date with destiny may come much sooner…and she will definitely be ordering the lobster. Before I go negative, let me give credit to Trump for picking the right taxes to cut. He kills the estate tax, an ugly beast that should have been euthanized years ago. Some may see this simply as a gift to the very rich. But legal wizards have long since devised strategies that offer almost complete protection from the death tax. None of these structures offer any real benefit to the businesses these millionaires typically own, or to the economy in general. Killing the tax will cost the government almost nothing, but it will remove tremendous impediments that have prevented family-run companies from growing over generations. He also kills the Alternative Minimum Tax, a complex parallel system of taxation that few understand but somehow manages to ensnare more and more taxpayers every year. Most importantly, he brings down the corporate tax rate from the globally non-competitive rate of 35% to the much more manageable 15%. Taxing corporations has always been a bad way to raise revenue. Corporations, after all, don’t pay taxes, which are simply treated as a cost of doing business. The real costs are borne by customers, who must pay higher prices, and employees, who must suffer with lower wages. But high domestic corporate taxes have hamstrung U.S. corporations and greatly contributed to the decline of American manufacturing. A more competitive corporate sector will shower benefits on all manner of consumers and employees. On the individual tax side, his decisions are much more problematic. Although Trump makes the sensible decision of compressing the seven individual tax brackets into just three (10%, 25%, and 35%), and doubles the standard personal deductions (thereby saving many people from the hassles of itemization), the headline-grabbing component of the proposals has to do with the lowering of the “pass-through” tax rate to the same 15% level that applies to corporations. This means that wealthy business owners, highly paid freelancers, and partners at law firms, medical groups, and management consultancies, will qualify for the 15% rate. This will be a huge windfall to some of the richest people in the country, who typically pay the highest marginal tax rate (currently 39%). And since the top one percent account for nearly 50% of tax revenue, this one provision promises to cost Uncle Sam plenty and to dramatically shake up the corporate landscape. Small business owners and independent contractors will in fact receive the benefit of the 15% pass through rate. But “Mom and Pop” entrepreneurs rarely have income that is high enough to be taxed at the higher rates. These smaller earners will likely be be trading a 15% tax for a 15% tax. All the big benefits will go to the really big fish. Whereas the vast majority of Tom Cruise’s income would have been taxed at the 39% rate, it will now be taxed at just 15%. His taxes will be reduced by nearly 60% from current law. The same holds true, in lesser degree, to lawyers, doctors, and consultants making more than a few hundreds of thousands of dollars annually. Is there any reason that could justify why a hedge fund manager making a million dollars per year should pay 15%, but a full time CEO at a corporation making half that would be subject to the highest marginal rate of 35%? It’s absurd. Now I’m not a big fan of the “progressive” tax system, whereby the tax rate goes up with income. I think a “flat” tax system, in which everyone paid the same rate, would be better. (Ideally I would like to see income taxes replaced by far less onerous and intrusive consumption taxes). But I certainly don’t believe in a “regressive” tax system in which lower-earning citizens pay higher rates than those at the top. But that’s exactly what Trump is trying to do. Given this wide disparity in tax rates, we can assume that the employment landscape will adjust dramatically. We should expect that legions of highly-paid full-time employees will start to form Limited Liability Corporations (LLCs) to work freelance rather than as employees. There are few barriers that would prevent such a shift, and the growth of internet-based work scenarios will continue to break down the traditional barrier between employee and freelancer. Yes, there are some labor rules that seek to separate employees from freelancers, but those rules may be easily circumvented, especially when the reward is so great. Rather than envy the lawyer earning more and paying less, the CEOs of the country will likely incorporate and sell their services freelance to their former employers. This shift will mean that a great many of the country’s highest earners will be paying taxes at the lowest rate. As a result, the reductions in tax revenue would likely be far greater than what is predicted in the standard modeling.  But unlike most prior tax cuts, the Trump version does not even make any attempt to balance the cuts with corresponding cuts in government spending. If Trump’s tax cuts don’t immediately generate sustained 4% growth or more, we may be staring down the barrel of $2 to $3 trillion in annual deficits. Is this an experiment that we really want to try? But even if the reforms can kick the economy into higher gear, thereby creating higher revenues with lower rates (The Laffer Curve), our current low interest rate environment provides significant obstacles to permit that growth to be sustained. If growth kicks up to the 4% range, the Federal Reserve will have to accelerate its rate increase schedule. Allowing rates to remain two to three percent below the growth rate could risk an overheated economy with inflation spiraling out of control. These higher rates will act as a stiff headwind to an economy that has grown increasingly dependent on ultra low rates. But increases in rates would also cost the economy in another way. Our current bonded national debt is ready to surge past the $20 trillion mark. The Trump tax cuts will push it beyond that very quickly. If the Fed raises rates to keep pace with higher growth, then the Government will have to pay much more to finance the outstanding debt. At $20 trillion, every point of increase in interest rates will cost the government $200 billion annually. At that level, if interest rates were at 3.75%, instead of the current .75%, then the Federal Government would have to come up with about another $600 billion per year in interest payments. (That number will be much higher when the debt grows past $20 Trillion). But it's not just Uncle Sam that is over-loaded with debt. Corporations and households would see their interest costs surge as well with rising interest rates. So what lower taxes giveth, higher interest rates will taketh away.  Consider the housing market. Not only will higher interest rates substantially increase the cost of home ownership (through higher mortgage rates), but Trump’s tax proposals will dramatically increase the cost of ownership for those living in high tax states. Under the proposal, homeowners will no longer be able to deduct property taxes, and a doubling of the standard deduction means a much larger percentage of homeowners will not be able to deduct mortgage interest from their federal income tax. Plus, with the top tax rate reduced from 39.6% to 15%, the mortgage interest deduction will be far less valuable to those higher earners who can still take advantage of it. Higher mortgage rates and lower tax subsidies will increase the cost and decrease the appeal of home ownership. This could lead to a crash in real estate prices, especially in the high end of the market. Falling prices could wipe out what little home equity many Americas have left, and lead to another wave of foreclosures. The losses to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be significant, with the costs falling directly on the Federal government, further driving up annual deficits.  The reality is that years of massive deficits, runaway government spending, artificially low interest rates, and three rounds of quantitative easing, have left the economy so sick that any tax cut large enough to revive it may actually kill it instead. The only silver lining to this cloud may be that the coming fiscal train wreck leaves lawmakers no choice but to slash government spending. If the real Republican agenda is to starve the beast, its success is assured.

14 января 2014, 08:56

Профицит бюджета США в декабре достиг рекорда

  Профицит бюджета США в декабре стал рекордным на фоне более высоких налогов на заработную плату, выплат со стороны Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac, а также снижения уровня безработицы. Доходы превысили расходы в прошлом месяце на $53,2 млрд по сравнению с дефицитом на уровне $1,19 млрд в декабре 2012 г., свидетельствуют данные Минфина США. Экономисты, опрошенные Bloomberg, ожидали показатель на уровне $44 млрд. В 2013 г. безработица в стране сократилась на 1,2 процентного пункта до 6,7%, и это самое сильное падение в годовом выражении с 1983 г. Укрепление экономики и увеличение налоговых поступлений позволили сократить дефицит страны в прошлом финансовом году, закончившемся 30 сентября, более чем наполовину: до $680,3 млрд по сравнению с рекордным показателем в $1,42 трлн в 2009 г. "Мы продолжаем видеть улучшение экономических условий, которое в настоящее время отражено в сокращении бюджетного дефицита", - отметил экономист Wells Fargo Securities LLC Майкл Браун. Доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций снизилась до 2,83%, приблизившись к самому низкому уровню за месяц.  Доходы бюджета составили $283,2 млрд в прошлом месяце по сравнению с $269,5 млрд в декабре 2012 г. Расходы составил $230 млрд по сравнению с $270,7 млрд в прошлом году. В течение первых трех месяцев текущего финансового года дефицит составил $176,3 млрд, тогда как с октября по декабрь 2012 г. показатель составлял $293,3 млрд. Платежи в казну от Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac выросли за год примерно на $34 млрд.

10 мая 2013, 06:16

Про MBS и ипотечные кредиты

Мы совсем как то эту тему забросили, а зря. Все же на этот рынок много завязано. О каких суммах идет речь? Объем ипотечных кредитов (для жилой недвижимости, коммерческой, сельскохозяйственной) составляет 13.1 трлн долл на конец 2012 года. Из этих 13.1 трлн более 9.4 трлн записано на домохозяйства. Под эти кредиты выпускали тоннами всякого MBS’осного шлака, процесс полностью остановился в 2008 году. Сейчас совокупный объем MBS составляет 7.54 трлн, т.е. почти 58% всех ипотечных кредитов было секьюритизировано. На пике зверства было под 70%. Из 7.54 трлн около 80% эмитировано Government-sponsored enterprises (GSE) всякие там fannie mae и freddie mac, остальное остальное на частные структуры. Причем стоит обратить внимание на то, что в 2009 году более 4.4 трлн дефолтных бумаг (!) было изъято из частных структур в пользу государственных. Не будь этого, то все рухнуло. Программа TARP, кредитование ФРС и QE здесь не учитываются.Как это было...Чтобы оценить тенденции и масштабы, то лучше всего на графике.Как видно, процесс сокращения ипотечных кредитов продолжается. Низкие процентные ставки не помогают, кредиты не берут. А выкуп MBS не помогает тем более, т.к. сам процесс выкупа не имеет ни малейшего отношения к способностям и желаниям заемщиков получать кредит. Все, к чему имеет отношение ФРС - это стимуляция дальнейшей активности бангстеров по секьюритизации ипотечных кредитов, но если нет роста кредитов, то и чисто теоретически не может быть никакого роста активности в MBS. Поэтому проблема не в предложении кредитов, т.е не в банках, а в спросе (заемщиках). Нет спроса на кредиты, а банки бы рады опять шарманку запустить.Максимум, что может получиться из этой безумной затеи ФРС - так это провоцирование отрыва башни у бангстеров . С тем, чтобы условия получения займов были столь простыми, что получить займ мог бы любой, кто имеет в активах хотя бы один чупа чупс и половину недопитой банки коки. Возврат к тому, от чего пришли. Ничего этих людей не исправит.Кто держит весь этот мусор?Разумеется больше всех у ФРС – 1 трлн на конец 2012 и 1.15 трлн в настоящий момент. Ни одна структура единолично столько не держит. Это 15% рынка на 2012, к концу 2013 будет держать все 20% рынка. Тем самым это означает, что ценообразование на этом рынке под полным контролем ФРС и дилеров. Проще говоря, вторичного рынка больше не существует.Почти 4.5 трлн у финансовых структур (1.6 трлн коммерческие банки, 350 млрд ипотечные трасты, 347 млрд страховые фонды, 223 млрд пенсионные фонды, 170 млрд у брокеров и так далее).Частный сектор (домохозяйства и корпорации) сократили вложения почти в ноль. Причем домохозяйства по каким то загадочным причинам начали скупать MBS тогда, когда они наиболее активно падали в цене. На тот момент (2007-2008) они были самым крупным покупателем на рынке, нарастив всего за 1.5 года объем MBS на 500 млрд до 1.02 трлн, а потом в период с 2009 по 2010 все продали, когда ФРС запустил QE1Я раньше вам говорил, но повторю. Эта операция была похожа на хорошо спланированный инсайд. Группа лиц инсайдеров и аффилированных лиц с ФРС примерно в конце 2007-середине 2008 знала, что будет неизбежный выкуп MBS со стороны ФРС для поддержания рынка и примерно тогда готовился план по банкротству Лемана. Учитывая, что бумаги продавались с дисконтом, то предположительно через частные счета и некоммерческие организации был проведен выкуп на 300-400 млрд бумаг, которые по рыночной цене не стоили и половину от номинала. А потом продавали по номиналу ФРС, заработав сотни процентов чистой прибыли. Также поступали и дилеры, но в отличие от юридических лиц, физиков и НКО никто проверять не будет, т.к. об этом никто даже не догадывается. Т.е. более, чем вероятно, что на инсайде смогли отмыть через мошеннические схемы более 150 млрд чистой прибыли.Основные выводы1. Роста кредитования нет.2. Эмиссии MBS нет, т.к. нет роста кредитования.3. Рынок MBS под полным контролем ФРС и дилеров. Еще никогда в истории одна структура не держала такую долю рынка. 15% на 2012 и 20% на конец 2013. Вторичного рынка больше не существует в свободном формате. Цены регулируются ФРС.4. ФРС частная лавочка бангстеров и инсайдеров, которая действует прежде всего в интересах бангстеров и инсайдеров.5. По множеству косвенных и прямых признаков, инсайд о вероятном запуске QE1 был еще в начале 2008 года. Много подозрительных теневых операций по переброски средств в НКО. Откуда у НКО пол триллиона баксов, которые выкупали это говно в момент острой паники и краха. По моим оценка отмыли не менее 150 млрд чистой прибыли.6. Когда MBS в объеме не увеличиваются, а ФРС выкупает под 40 млрд в месяц + когда ФРС монетизирует гос.долг США, то избыточная ликвидность абсорбируется на рынке акций. Реципиентом являются дилеры – те, кто работает с ФРС и получает ликвидность от ФРС. НЕ нужно питать иллюзий, что рост фондового рынка чем то фундаментально обоснован. Очередная гнусная операция по перекачки ликвидности и поддержанию рентабельности фин.сектора в условиях, когда активность клиентов спала на рекордно низкий уровень. Не будет QE = не будет роста рынка.7. Единственной хорошей новостью является то, что этот бардак выходит на финишную прямую. Когда они сосредоточили в руках почти всю возможную власть и активы, то прорыв этого чуда-юда неизбежен. Учитывая то, насколько все ухудшилось за последний год, то ждать осталось не так и долго. Еще никогда контроль над активыми не был столь тотальным и всеобъемлющим.Более детальная таблица держателей MBS

24 января 2013, 18:39

По следам монетарного безумия

Небольшая предыстория, чтобы понять, откуда растут ноги у монетарного безумия. Это важно понимать в условиях, когда система на полном ходу несется под откос.  Все началось задолго до того, как общественностью принято считать началом острой фазы кризиса. Первые серьезные проблемы появились в еще 2007 году, а не осенью 2008.Но сначала, что такое MBS? Объясню предельно кратко. Это структурированная облигация с определенным номиналом и процентными платежами, покупаемая инвесторами по образу и подобию обычных облигаций с небольшими отличиями. Кто является эмитентом? Либо квазигосударственные структуры (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac), либо инвестиционные фонды. На какой основе происходит эмиссия?Ипотечные кредиты населения объединяются в пул residential mortgage-backed security (RMBS)Коммерческие ипотечные кредиты объединяются в пул commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS).Нарисовал схематично в общих чертах принцип работыДалее происходит секьюритизация кредитов и градация по качеству кредитов с присвоением соответствующего рейтинга. Самый высокий рейтинг соответствует якобы самым надежным кредитам и по ним наименьшие ставки. Соответственно наоборот с наименее надежными –сабпрайм кредитами.После этого происходит эмиссия MBS и продажа инвесторам. Не буду заостряться на ценообразовании, т.к. это весьма обширная тема, а скажу суть. Процентные ставки по MBS всегда ниже, чем процентные ставки по кредитам, образующих MBS. Так, например, если пул кредитов на 1 млрд долларов со средневзвешенной ставкой в 6%, то облигация будет точно ниже 6% годовых. Если инвесторы не готовы покупать по 6%, а просят 7%, то эмиссия облигации теряет всякий смысл.Отсюда вытекает две фундаментальные уязвимости.Первое. В отличие от стандартных облигаций, MBS крайне серьезно завязаны на денежном потоке, который образуется процентными платежами по кредитам, поэтому процентные ставки по MBS не могут быть выше процентных ставок по кредитам.Второе. В действительности, инвесторы не могут претендовать ни на какие залоги, поэтому формально облигация не имеет реального обеспечения, т.к. если происходит дефолт заемщиков и реализация их недвижимости на рынке, то это в самом лучшем случае может компенсировать лишь часть пула. Допустим, в пуле кредитов 10% оказались дефолтными и лишь 7% удалось реализовать, да еще с дисконтом в 20% из-за падение цен на недвижимость. Эмитент облигации в таких условиях не может в полной мере выполнить своих обязательств и инвесторы несут убытки, либо при исполнении обязательств эмитент понесет убытки пропорционально количеству дефолтных заемщиков.Но это в лучшем случае.В реальности процедура взыскания усложнена, т.к. из-за иерархической секьюритизации сложно доказать, кто фактически является собственников кредита. Вспомните, Foreclosure-gate в 2010 году, когда банки не могли доказать принадлежность кредита, что усложняло процедуру взыскания.Это потоки денег между контрагентами.Т.е. схема такая. Заемщик идет в банк за кредитом, получает деньги и покупает недвижимость. Коммерческий банк продает пул кредитов инвестфондам, как правило, с небольшим дисконтом, и инвестбанк получает пул кредитов и процентные платежи по нему от коммерческого банка. Далее инвестбанк структурирует кредиты, производит градацию по качеству и выпускает MBS. Инвесторы платят инвестбанку деньги за MBS, а от банка-эмитента получают процентные платежи и деньги при полном или частичном погашении облигации.Собственно, мотивация инвестбанков в покупке пула ипотечных кредитов заключается в том, чтобы заработать деньги на разнице между процентной ставкой по эмитированной облигации и процентными ставками по ипотечным кредитам.Коммерческие банки заинтересованы в перераспределении ответственности и снятию рисков невозврата.Инвесторы заинтересованы в получении доходов от MBS. Раньше деньги по MBS исправно платились,Все были заинтересованы в расширении этого рынка, но …Коллапс ипотечного пузыря с 2007 года вызвал обесценение mortgage-backed security и инвесторы стали просить премию за ипотечные пулы. Иными словами, эмиссия этого чуда-юда проходила по существенно более высоким ставкам.Все крупнейшие банки были достаточно сильно представлены в MBS, как со стороны инвесторов, так и со стороны эмитентов.Теперь рассмотрим этот процесс внимательно со стороны эмитента MBS. В активах у них ипотечные пулы, в пассивах обязательства по MBS.Начинается дефолт заемщиков (сужается денежный поток по выплате кредитов), падает цена не недвижимость, которая является залогом в пуле кредитов. Целые кластеры обесцениваются, но инвестбанк вынужден выполнять свои обязательства перед инвесторами.Допустим, к погашению подходит 10 млрд MBS. Раньше на каждые 10 млрд погашений, банки могли размещать по 30-50 млрд нового выпуска, тем самым происходил, как процесс рефинансирования, так и процесс расширения. А что случилось в 2007-2008?Эмиссия упала в ноль. Погашать надо, а рефинансировать не получается. Все, конец. Без ФРС теперь никуда.Во-первых: инвесторы начали просить премию и более высокие процентные ставки, тем самым многие выпуски теряли смысл при отсутствии рентабельности.Во-вторых: инвесторы значительно сократили свои вложения в этот рынок из-за опасения дефолтов после коллапса ипотечного пузыря и смены настроений. Т.е. раньше рефинансировали легко 10 млрд, а теперь максимум готовы купить 2-3 млрд.Так вот, банку нужно погасить 10 млрд, а купить в новой эмиссии готовы лишь на 2 млрд. Образуется дефицит ликвидности на 8 млрд. Что делать? Фондироваться на межбанке, просить деньги у ФРС, либо реализовывать свои активы на рынке.Фондироваться на межбанке не получалось, т.к. в начале был дефицит ликвидности, когда у других банков были теже самые проблемы и им тоже нужны были деньги. А потом возник кризис доверия, когда банки не могли открывать кредитные линии по причине, что не были уверены в платежеспособности контрагента.Реализовывать активы на рынке приходилось с дисконтном в десятки процентов, т.к. одновременно на продажу ринулись все, тем самым активы посыпались. В 4 квартале 2007 году произошли первые многомиллиардные списание у крупных банков. Собственно тогда стало окончательно понятно, что система пошла в разнос.Оставалось звонить ФРС.Звонки в ФРС стали происходит в аварийном режиме на постоянной основе с матерными выкриками : «Бен, что за ебанистика творится на рынке? Мы не может остановить падение MBS, у нас нет денег на поддержание штанов, мы банкроты»Разработка экстренных программ началась в 4 квартале 2007 года, запуск первых состоялся в декабре. Одна из первых программ – это Term Auction Facility (TAF) – временные аукционы для поддержания ликвидности в финансовой системе. Эта программа предоставляет банкам кредиты на 28 или 84 дня на тот случай, если кредитование через дисконтное окно ФРС по каким либо причинам не доступно, либо не востребовано банками.И понеслась.Март 2008. ЗапускTerm Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) программа, призванная увеличить показатели ликвидности непосредственно для первичных дилеров. Кредиты сроком на 1 месяц, обеспеченные залогами. Старт был в марте 2008, окончание действия 1 февраля 2010. Процентная ставка определяется по рыночной стоимости казначейских одномесячных векселей.Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) Это овернайт кредиты исключительно для первичных дилеров с целью стабилизации рынка РЕПО и устранения кассовых разрывов при отсутствии возможности фондироваться на необходимую сумму из других источников. Теоретически овернайт кредиты могут пролонгироваться бесконечно в формате действий данной программы. Ставка фиксированная и определяется ФРБ Нью Йорка. Лимиты программы формально безграничны, но фактически определяются уровнем залогов у первичных дилеров.Но ничего из того не помогло, исправить ситуацию не получилось. Обесценение MBS происходило дальше.Банки убивало то, что эмиссия MBS сжалось почти в ноль, а погашать MBS надо был в огромных количествах. Следовательно, дефицит ликвидности стал просто запредельным. Плюс сжатия денежного потока + падение цен на недвижимость и самого залога.В середине 2008 стало окончательно понятно, что должен быть крупный покупатель на рынке MBS, чтобы стабилизировать обесценение. Вариантов не оставалось – это только ФРС.Сейчас в 2013 это кажется странным, но тогда монетарное блядство и разврат были далеко не так запущены, как сейчас. Опыта QE не было. Было просто дикостью, что ФРС будет скупать активы на открытом рынке, ни одному в голову такое прийти не могло. В середине 2008 они придумали гениальный план, суть которого заключалась в следующем, что раз просто так начать QE не получится, то необходимо устроить панику и условия тотального страха, чтобы законодательно оправдать помощь. Повторюсь, в 2008 году банкиры были очень запуганными, это сейчас они обнаглели в конец и делают, что хотят. Тогда еще были рамки приличия. Как устроить панику? Обанкротить банк? Какой банк? Достаточно крупный, чтобы вызвать глобальную панику, но недостаточно крупный, чтобы привести к параличу банковской системы.Выбор был невелик: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch и … Lehman Brothers. Не будем заостряться, почему это был Lehman Brothers, но так получилось, что козлом отпущения должен был стать именно он.Существует миф, что якобы виной кризиса стал Lehman Brothers. Это не так. В оправдание этого банка скажу, что вся банковская система была на тот момент банкротом, т.к. экспозиция по структурированным продуктам была запредельная, и этот рынок был парализован. Сказать, что финансовый кризис спровоцировал LB – это расписаться под собственной профнепригодностью.Lehman Brothers – это не более, чем предлог для начала экстренных спасительны мер, это был инструмент для спасения всей банковской системы, т.к. необходимо было начать программы TARP и выкуп MBS. Банкротство Lehman Brothers шло в полном соответствии с планом Казначейства и ФРС по спасению банковской системы. Банкротство Lehman Brothers было спланированным и подготавливалось с весны 2008, когда стало понятно, что без выкупа не обойтись. Если бы не начали выкуп, то через несколько дней навернулся бы другие инвестбанки, там были дичайшие кассовые разрывы.Ниже задолженность банков перед ФРС по кредитам. Отмечу, что Citi и Bank of America в тот момент были в более плачевном положении, чем Lehman Brothers.На графике черной линией консодированная задолженность Леман перед ФРС по кредитным линиям.Видно, что она на уровне других банков, а пиковая задолженность в пару раз меньше, чем у конкурентов, что как бы намекает на то, что дела у других банков мягко говоря шли еще хуже.Потом Генри Полсон говорил, что они обанкротили Леман по причине, что не хотели тратить деньги налогоплательщиков? Брехня и вранье.Через пару дней они начали заливать в систему триллионы, что видно нижеЗдесь я провел клиринг всех операций кредитования и посчитал кумулятивную экспозицию по всем программам.Расшифровка программ. Про три программы расcказал выше. Остальные:Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) – программа обеспечивает поддержку ликвидности для американских эмитентов корпоративных облигаций через прямой выкуп трехмесячных облигаций (обеспеченных и необеспеченных активами) по специально созданным лимитам. Операции проводились до полного погашения обязательств. Ставки кредитования для необеспеченных бумаг OIS + 300 базисных пункта, а для обеспеченных OIS + 100 базисных пунктаTerm Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) – программа, призванная увеличить показатели ликвидности непосредственно для первичных дилеров. Кредиты сроком на 1 месяц, обеспеченные залогами.Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF) – это программа экстренного кредитования фондов денежного рынка под залог коммерческих бумаг, обеспеченных активами. Процентная ставка фиксированная и устанавливается ФРБ Нью Йорка на день выдачи (Primary Credit rate). Лимит кредитования устанавливается в зависимости от предоставленных залогов. Срок кредитования от нескольких дней до нескольких месяцев.На графике не отражены своп линии и Maiden Lane for Bear Stearns, American International Group – целый ряд программ поддержки для Bear Stearns и AIG. В совокупности на пике без учета своп линии впрыск ликвидности доходил до 1.25 трлн долларов.В принципе, надо понимать, что для ФРС не было никакой проблемой спасти Леман. Речь шла о разрыве в 15 млрд баксов. Они не дали 15, чтобы потом влить 1.5 трлн. Чувствуйте разницу? Дело в том, что он вполне мог спасти по образу и подобию Bear Stearns, когда дал гарантии по части обязательств банка. Но на Леман закрыли лимиты тогда, как банки, так и ФРС. Программы кредитования проходили достаточно мутно. т.к. в залог формально давали активы, а по факту мусор, т.к. оценить стоимость было сложно и тупо оценивали все по номиналу.Так вот, откуда объем в 1.25 трлн у QE1? Почему не 600 млрд или 1 трлн? 1.25 трлн = пику кредитования. Т.е. QE1 замещал кредит на чистый впрыск ликвидности. Те. Банки погашали кредиты и одновременно получали деньги через QE1.Почему выкуп MBS, а не трежерис? Понятно из статьи.QE2? Что это? Экспериментальная программа, чтобы проверить обратную реакцию системы. Чистый вандализм и произвол. Они хотели проверить, приведет ли программа к негативным последствиям на валютном и долговом рынке? Не привела, все осталось в порядке и запустили QE3 в уже безлимитном форматеПрограмма QE3. Основная цель – монетизация гос.долга и обеспечение рентабельности бангстеров в условиях, когда реальный сектор высушен, когда невозможно генерировать прибыль. К заявленному спасению экономики программа не имеет никакого отношения. Это очередное прикрытие банкиров.Посмотрите, насколько херовые результаты по доходам инвестбанков.Конъюнктура такая, что делать деньги стало практически невозможно. Разумеется, опять приходит на помощь ФРС уже с QE3 ))Вероятно, QE3 - это последнее, что сделает ФРС. Система в критическом состоянии находится. Обратные связи полностью деградировали. Сейчас производят интервенции на рынке акций в аварийном режиме, но не знаю, поможет ли? Думаю, что нет. По совокупности факторов, мировая экономика находится в более худшем состоянии, чем в 2009 году. Основная беда, что все идет в холостую, в пустоту. Рентабельность приращенного гос.долга близка к нулю

25 сентября 2012, 13:50

ФРС может расширить список выкупаемых активов

Федеральная резервная система может увеличить объемы и расширить список активов, выкупаемых в рамках проведения третей программы количественного смягчения. Об этом заявил президент Федерального резервного банка Сан-Франциско Джон Уильямс.Такие действия возможны в ответ на слабую реакцию экономики США на текущий формат стимулирования экономики."В отличие от наших прошлых программ по выкупу активов у этой нет заранее определенной даты завершения. Вместо этого она напрямую привязана к тому, что происходит с экономикой. Мы можем даже расширить наши покупки, с тем чтобы включить в них другие активы", - заявил Уильямс.Уильямс также отметил, что хоть и согласно мандату ФРС список бумаг, который может быть на балансе регулятора, ограничен, однако все еще есть возможность выкупа казначейских облигаций всех сроков обращения, долговых обязательств ипотечных агентств Freddie Mac и Fannie Mae.Помимо этого, Уильямс также ожидает продления сроков программы "Твист". "Я ожидаю, что мы продолжим эту программу в 2013 году, и я также думаю, что существуют сильные предпосылки для увеличения объемов или продолжения выкупа других активов в 2013 году, включая Treasuries с более длительными сроками обращения", - отметил Уильямс.По прогнозам представителя регулятора, ФРС удастся добиться снижения безработицы до 7,25% уже в 2014 г., поэтому программа выкупа активов будет завершена до конца 2014 г.