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19 апреля, 17:55

Русский Fannie Mae: Как власти стимулируют рынок жилья

Агентство ипотечного жилищного кредитования запустило механизм, позволяющий банкам объединять ипотечные закладные в пулы для последующей секъюритизации под гарантии государства.

19 апреля, 13:39

BUZZ: Congress to punt on government funding -- RUNOFF in Georgia’s sixth -- O’REILLY done at Fox? -- W.H. stares down North Korea -- JOHNNY DESTEFANO profile -- B’DAY: Caitlin Hayden

Listen to the Playbook Audio Briefing http://bit.ly/2oNiuWl ... Subscribe on iTunes http://apple.co/2eX6Eay ... Visit the online home of Playbook http://politi.co/2f51JnfGood Wednesday morning.WE HEAR -- THE HILL IS IN “PUNT FORMATION” … Congress is likely to pass a one-week stopgap government funding bill next week. It effectively would push off the shutdown scare one week, giving lawmakers more time to hash out a compromise. THE REALITY: That likely pushes off action on other priorities, like health care.ABOUT LAST NIGHT -- THE GEORGIA SPECIAL -- Two interesting points: @jmartNYT: “Republicans had to spend nearly $5M on air to keep a 30-year-old first-time candidate below 50% in Tom Price’s CD. Ds will now demand MORE” … From a Republican: “Everyone is in ‘disbelief!’ that Trump has made GA-06, otherwise a safe R district, competitive. Well, it cuts both ways - he also won PA, MI, and WI in the presidential - first R since Reagan. It’s time to finally realize the old rules don’t apply. Trump is an unorthodox candidate and president and he's going to make previously safe seats (both R and D) competitive in the mid-terms because he changes the old dynamic.”-- WAPO’s BOB COSTA in ATLANTA: “Unofficial returns showed that Ossoff had earned less than 50 percent of the vote, the threshold needed to declare an outright victory. Instead, with 48.3 percent, Ossoff was headed to a runoff against Republican Karen Handel, the top GOP vote-getter in a special election to replace Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. In a statement early Wednesday, Ossoff acknowledged that he had fallen short. ‘This is already a remarkable victory,’ he said. ‘We defied the odds, shattered expectations, and now are ready to fight on and win in June.’ …“Ossoff could find it difficult to sustain the momentum he witnessed this past week in a traditionally Republican district that has been in GOP hands since 1979. Although Handel had earned 19.7 percent of the vote with 88 percent of precincts reporting, in a runoff she is widely expected to rally Republican voters who had divided their votes among 11 GOP candidates in Tuesday’s race. ...“Ossoff’s candidacy gave Democrats an exhilarating if brief taste of what it will be like to compete in a ruby-red district next year, when they have to win 24 seats to take back the House.” http://wapo.st/2oUl1jY -- THE NEW NARRATIVE -- “Democrats begin to wonder: When do we win?,” by Gabe Debenedetti: “[Jon] Ossoff’s moral victory --capturing 48 percent of the vote in a conservative-oriented district -- was welcome, but after two successive close-but-no-cigar finishes in House special elections in Georgia and Kansas, a new worry is beginning to set in. For all the anger, energy, and money swirling at the grassroots level, Democrats didn’t manage to pick off the first two Republican-held congressional seats they contended for in the Trump era, and the prospects aren’t markedly better in the next few House races coming up: the Montana race at the end of May, and the South Carolina contest on June 20.” http://politi.co/2oN5X5s-- TRUMP SAYS HIS TWEET SWAYED THE ELECTION: @realDonaldTrump at 12:09 a.m.: “Despite major outside money, FAKE media support and eleven Republican candidates, BIG ‘R’ win with runoff in Georgia. Glad to be of help!” He sent six tweets about the race.-- TWO WAYS TO LOOK AT IT: Republicans are rolling, notching two wins in two special elections this year … Democrats came close in two red districts and should pour money into a special election in Montana May 25.KEEPING TRACK -- Tulsa World’s Randy Krehbiel: “In Claremore, [Sen. James] Lankford [R-Okla.] surprised a questioner by saying he believes that President Donald Trump should release his income tax returns. ‘He promised he would,’ Lankford said. ‘He should keep his promise.’” http://bit.ly/2pfFHUnON THE WORLD STAGE -- “US VP Pence warns North Korea: ‘The sword stands ready’,” by AP’s Ken Thomas in Yokosuka, Japan and Robert Burns in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: “From the wind-swept deck of a massive aircraft carrier, Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday warned North Korea not to test the resolve of the U.S. military, promising it would make an ‘overwhelming and effective’ response to any use of conventional or nuclear weapons. Pence, dressed in a green military jacket, said aboard the hulking USS Ronald Reagan that President Donald Trump's administration would continue to ‘work diligently’ with allies like Japan, China and other global powers to apply economic and diplomatic pressure on Pyongyang. But he told the sailors, ‘as all of you know, readiness is the key.’” http://apne.ws/2pfmSAG-- “Aircraft Carrier Wasn’t Sailing to Deter North Korea, as U.S. Suggested,” by NYT’s Mark Landler and Eric Schmitt: “Just over a week ago, the White House declared that ordering an American aircraft carrier into the Sea of Japan would send a powerful deterrent signal to North Korea and give President Trump more options in responding to the North’s provocative behavior. ‘We’re sending an armada,’ Mr. Trump said to Fox News last Tuesday afternoon. The problem was that the carrier, the Carl Vinson, and the three other warships in its strike force were that very moment sailing in the opposite direction, to take part in joint exercises with the Australian Navy in the Indian Ocean, 3,500 miles southwest of the Korean Peninsula. “White House officials said Tuesday that they had been relying on guidance from the Defense Department. Officials there described a glitch-ridden sequence of events, from an ill-timed announcement of the deployment by the military’s Pacific Command to a partially erroneous explanation by the defense secretary, Jim Mattis — all of which perpetuated the false narrative that a flotilla was racing toward the waters off North Korea.” http://nyti.ms/2pfz98d -- “Trump Mulls Military Options for North Korea. They’re All Grim,” by Bloomberg’s Nick Wadhams: “[P]lanners are contemplating what a U.S. strike to prevent that development might look like, and the options are grim. Analysts estimate North Korea may now possess between 10 and 25 nuclear weapons, with launch vehicles, air force jets, troops and artillery scattered across the country, hidden in caves and massed along the border with South Korea. That’s on top of what the U.S. estimates to be one of the world’s largest chemical weapons stockpiles, a biological weapons research program and an active cyberwarfare capability. And with Seoul and its 10 million residents just 35 miles (56 kilometers) south of the border -- well within North Korea’s artillery range -- any eruption of hostilities could have devastating human and economic costs.” https://bloom.bg/2o2L0WWFOR YOUR RADAR -- “U.S. says Iran complies with nuke deal but orders review on lifting sanctions,” by Reuters’ Lesley Wroughton: “The Trump administration said on Tuesday it was launching an inter-agency review of whether the lifting of sanctions against Iran was in the United States’ national security interests, while acknowledging that Tehran was complying with a deal to rein in its nuclear program. In a letter to U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan, the top Republican in Congress, on Tuesday U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Iran remained compliant with the 2015 deal, but said there were concerns about its role as a state sponsor of terrorism. Under the deal, the State Department must notify Congress every 90 days on Iran’s compliance under the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It is the first such notification under U.S. President Donald Trump.” http://reut.rs/2pQHQlQTRUMP’S WASHINGTON -- “Trump’s reliance on billionaire adviser blurs ethics lines,” by Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey: “Billionaire investor Steve Schwarzman’s newfound status as a trusted outside adviser for President Donald Trump has created blurred lines in which the Blackstone CEO is offering guidance on policies that could boost the fortunes of his company and his personal wealth. The starkest example was Trump’s reversal last week on labeling China a currency manipulator — a central campaign pledge that could have dealt a major blow to U.S.-China relations. “While many factors likely played into Trump’s decision, including the president’s desire to encourage China to get tough on North Korea, it also followed extensive advice Schwarzman had given the president on the topic, warning Trump against such a move. Even if Schwarzman was acting in the capacity of an economic expert, those policy changes directly help Schwarzman’s bottom line as CEO of Blackstone, the private equity giant. And Blackstone has gone so far as to warn its investors about the stakes of Trump’s China policy. In a recent regulatory filing, Blackstone explicitly warned its investors that Trump’s tough talk on China threatened to hurt Blackstone’s portfolio.” http://politi.co/2o2qqG4JOHNNY DESTEFANO PROFILE -- “This Beltway insider is in charge of hiring for the Trump administration. It’s taking a while,” by WaPo’s Lisa Rein: “If Johnny DeStefano applied for a job in the Trump administration, chances are pretty good that Johnny DeStefano wouldn’t hire him. DeStefano is the president’s official headhunter, responsible for filling up to 4,000 political jobs -- about 500 of which are really important jobs -- in a government that his boss promised to clear of the permanent class of capital insiders to drain the Washington swamp. ...“In an interview at his corner office next to the White House, the director of presidential personnel brushes off suggestions that his mainstream political pedigree is a liability … ‘What I’m interested in now is, ‘Why do you want the job, and more specifically, why do you want to work for this administration?’ DeStefano says he asks candidates he interviews for jobs ranging from undersecretary of transportation to ambassador to the European Union. ‘What’s your vision? I want to know that myself,’ he says. ‘I’m the person who’s vouching for them to the president of the United States.’ … ‘Literally, this came out of the blue,’ Boehner says [of the job]. ‘You don’t have to wonder what you’re getting with Johnny. He brings stability.’” With cameos by Reince Priebus, Steve Bannon, John Boehner, Bret Loper and Guy Harrison http://wapo.st/2o2uvKK MEDIAWATCH -- “Bill O’Reilly’s Future at Fox Grows Dim as the Murdochs’ Support Erodes,” by NYT’s Emily Steel, Michael Schmidt and Jim Rutenberg: “Bill O’Reilly’s position at Fox News grew increasingly tenuous on Tuesday as support from the Murdoch family showed signs of eroding, according to three people briefed on discussions about his future. Mr. O’Reilly’s fate at the network is expected to be discussed on Thursday at a board meeting for Fox News’s parent company, 21st Century Fox. “Chief among the considerations is a continuing investigation into Mr. O’Reilly’s behavior conducted by the law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison. Pressure on the company increased on Tuesday when another woman reported sexual harassment allegations against Mr. O’Reilly to 21st Century Fox. The company recently renewed Mr. O’Reilly’s contract, and the Murdoch family, which controls the company, has stood by him as allegations piled up. But after a New York Times article this month detailed harassment allegations against him, more than 50 companies have pulled their advertising from his show.” http://nyti.ms/2oUoMFZ -- FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH: It’s not only the Times that’s reporting O’Reilly is all but done. Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal has this headline: “Fox Is Preparing to Cut Ties With Bill O’Reilly”: http://on.wsj.com/2pzI8RgBUSH 41 BACK IN THE HOSPITAL -- per spokesman Jim McGrath: “President George H. W. Bush was admitted to Houston Methodist Hospital on Friday for observation due to a persistent cough that prevented him from getting proper rest. It was subsequently determined he had a mild case of pneumonia, which was treated and has been resolved. President Bush is in very good spirits and is being held for further observation while he regains his strength.”THE PRESIDENT’S WEDNESDAY -- PRESIDENT TRUMP will meet with VA Secretary David Shulkin and will sign a veterans bill. He has the New England Patriots at the White House at 1:20 p.m., and then meets with National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, who just returned from Afghanistan. -- NOTE: A G5 jet is scheduled to land at DCA at 10:54 a.m. this morning from Laurence G Hanscom Field in Bedford, Massachusetts. We bet that has something to do with today’s Patriots festivities. -- BOSTON GLOBE’s ANNIE LINSKEY on fan-in-chief Trump. http://bit.ly/2o2NOUa AIR WARS -- “Ad by Pro-Trump Group Attacks the Club for Growth,” by NYT’s Maggie Haberman: “A political group backing President Trump is firing a warning shot at the anti-tax Club for Growth, which opposed the initial White House effort on repealing the Affordable Care Act, with a new ad coinciding with a special congressional election in Georgia on Tuesday. The spot, by the 45Committee, which was heavily funded by the casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and the wealthy Ricketts family during the presidential campaign, centers on the Club for Growth’s support for Bob Gray, one of the Republican candidates in the 18-person field in the special election in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District. ... “The spot, airing nationally on Fox News, describes the conservative Club for Growth -- one of the best-funded groups on the right -- as having ‘saved’ President Barack Obama’s signature health care law by criticizing the initial deal the White House considered. … The spot coincides with a direct-mail campaign that the 45Committee sent to about 100,000 homes, criticizing Mr. Gray. The ad buy is roughly $300,000.” http://nyti.ms/2pAUMgk … The ad http://bit.ly/2oNhDVK … Their mail piece about the Club for Growth, using President Trump’s tweet against the Club http://politi.co/2pAxaeF THE SUMMER WHITE HOUSE -- “Goodbye, Mar-a-Lago, hello, Bedminster,” by Darren Samuelsohn and Ken Vogel: “President Donald Trump’s repeated weekend jaunts away from Washington have caused nonstop headaches for his South Florida neighbors this winter. But once his exclusive seaside retreat at Mar-a-Lago closes for the season, Trump is expected to shift his weekend plans north, to his Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey – and bring with him all the chaos that comes with being a preferred presidential destination. “‘We’re kind of apprehensive, I guess you could say,’ said Nick Strakhov, a retired telecommunications professional and longtime resident who serves on the Bedminster land use board. ‘It’s nice to be recognized. But on the other hand, if it gets to be tedious, we might start to complain.’“White House and Secret Service officials did not respond to requests for comment about what mode of transportation Trump would use to get to New Jersey from Washington when he goes, but local officials said they’re expecting the president to travel either via a smaller 757 version of Air Force One into Morristown, New Jersey, or to fly into Newark and then use Marine One to get to his club.” http://politi.co/2oKMeEVN.Y. TABLOID VETS TARA PALMERI AND ANNIE KARNI ON THE NEW WASHINGTON -- “White House aides grapple with newfound celebrity”: Kellyanne “Conway might be the most overexposed of President Donald Trump’s West Wing aides; in November, the Daily Mail published a 59-photo slideshow of the Republican strategist lounging poolside in her bathing suit while on a family vacation in Key Biscayne, Florida. But she’s not the only White House official who has transformed into a bona fide national celebrity, completing a melding of politics and entertainment that Washington observers say has been years in the making. Photographers stake out Trump staffers’ homes or venues where they are known to be speaking. Hollywood actors have volunteered to play Trump’s aides on ‘Saturday Night Live.’ And their national name recognition is abnormally high for typically inside-the-Beltway famous jobs.“‘This is nothing I ever sought or expected,” Conway said in a phone interview as she boarded Air Force One on Tuesday to travel to Kenosha, Wisconsin, with the president. ‘It’s not as if I said to my children, “Mommy is running for governor, or starring in a new film, so attention will intensify and the unhappy people with poison keyboards will get nastier.”’“Paparazzi photographer Mark Wilkins used to stalk movie stars like Shia LaBeouf, who once famously threw a cup of coffee on him. He's now taken to following White House aides instead. Last week, he stationed himself outside the Newseum, where Conway was speaking at a conference, to snap pictures of her as she left. ‘When she was walking in front of The Willard, they treated her like a rock star,’ Wilkins told POLITICO. Wilkins also sometimes sits outside of Spicer’s house in his car, waiting for a shot he can sell to the tabloids. ‘I’m going to try to work on him and get him at church,’ said Wilkins. ‘I get tips from airlines and train stations, when they fly in and out. Waiting around the White House is boring -- you don’t know what entrance they’re going to use.’ The Daily Mail pays photographers a daily rate to sit outside the Kalorama home of Trump’s older daughter, Ivanka Trump, and her husband, Jared Kushner, tracking them as they come and go, sometimes in their gym clothes, two industry sources said.” http://politi.co/2oKXrp1 TRUMP INC. -- “Hard Rock aims to make Trump Taj Mahal great again: US president’s old Atlantic City casino to receive $375M makeover by new owners,” by FT’s Gary Silverman in New York: “Hard Rock in March reached a deal — terms were not disclosed — to acquire the Taj from its most recent owner, billionaire Carl Icahn. The company plans to renovate the facility and reopen it in 2018 as the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Atlantic City….He says Mr Trump’s past difficulties in Atlantic City mainly reflected their owner’s taste for leverage, rather than his abilities as a promoter or operator. ... ‘The Trump Organization’s lack of success was not driven by revenue challenges or by ebitda [earnings before interest, taxes and amortisation] challenges, but from a tremendous debt load,’ Mr Allen says. ‘I certainly think that Mr Trump’s marketing of his brand is something that is pretty amazing.’” http://on.ft.com/2oNey8k 2018 WATCH -- “Senate Democratic outside group launches radio ads defending McCaskill,” by Kevin Robillard: “A nonprofit controlled by allies of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is spending $500,000 on radio ads backing Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, an early cash injection bucking up one of the most vulnerable Democrats facing reelection in 2018. Majority Forward is paying for the ads, which will air statewide over the next four weeks. Majority Forward is affiliated with Senate Majority PAC, the main super PAC that supports Senate Democrats. The ads are the first from either group aimed at the 2018 elections, when 10 Senate Democrats are up for reelection in states President Donald Trump carried last fall.” http://politi.co/2org1PJCARRIE BUDOFF BROWN interviews TINA TCHEN: “Giving Ivanka Trump ‘the benefit of the doubt’: “Tina Tchen, a former assistant to President Barack Obama and former chief of staff to first lady Michelle Obama, says she welcomes Ivanka Trump’s focus on women’s issues — but don’t look for the pair to team up anytime soon. ‘Giving her the benefit of the doubt, I guess that’s where I would start,’ Tchen, former executive director of the White House Council on Women and Girls, tells POLITICO’s Carrie Budoff Brown in the latest episode of the ‘Women Rule’ podcast. ‘It’s good that they’re talking about these issues, but then I think we have to be very vigilant.’” http://politi.co/2o2AQpdHAPPENING TONIGHT -- NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel will be the featured speaker at the Anthony Shadid Journalism Ethics Award Dinner tonight at the National Press Club. The award is presented in memory of Anthony Shadid, the late Pulitzer Prize–winning journalism alumnus and foreign reporter for the Washington Post and New York Times. This year’s winner is Shane Bauer of Mother Jones for his piece “My four months as a private prison guard.” More info http://bit.ly/2oUm4QE … Shane’s piece http://bit.ly/28YN8qrSPOTTED: Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) Tuesday night sitting behind home plate at the Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers game in LA … Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) yesterday strolling in the West Village ... Tim Cook yesterday walking near the White House -- pic http://bit.ly/2pAz1Qj ... Michelle Obama at The Dabney last night ... Jesse Watters filming outside the White House at lunchtime. “Let’s see how D.C. fares in his world,” said our tipster.SPOTTED at last night's Hampton Creek’s D.C. rooftop cocktail party at Fathom Gallery on 14th street: Jim Messina, Karen Finney, The Atlantic’s Steve Clemons, CNN’s Hunter Schwarz, 1776’s Peter Cherukuri, The Washington Post’s Michelle Jaconi, MemoryWell CEO Jay Newton Small, PBS’s Nick Massella, former Fox 5 anchor Laura Evans, Jen Nedeau, Ali Breland, David McCabe, Mary Amons and more. On the menu: edible garden, cauliflower clouds, veggie wontons, poke bites, mushroom summer rolls, roasted Brussels sprouts salad and cookie dough truffles, all featuring Hampton Creek’s Just Mayo, Just Dressing, Just Cookies and Just Cookie Dough products. SPOTTED at Quorum’s Open House celebrating their new offices at 1050 Connecticut last night: Robert Flock of CUNA, Michael Petricone and Michael Hayes of Consumer Technology Association, Susan Brophy of The Glover Park Group, Rob Quartel of NTELX, Andrew Mills of Niskanen Center, Estuardo Rodriguez of The Raben Group, Nick Sinai of Inside Venture Partners, Andrea Hailey of Civic Engagement Fund, and Kevin Matthews of National Strategies. TRANSITIONS -- Daniel Suvor, most recently California Sen. Kamala Harris’ No. 2 in the state attorney general’s office and Obama White House senior director of cabinet affairs, is joining O’Melveny & Myers’ Los Angeles office. -- “Rubio’s longest serving staff adviser leaves for TechNet,” by Marc Caputo: “Sen. Marco’s Rubio’s longest-serving paid adviser, Alex Burgos, is leaving the Republican’s Capitol Hill office to lobby and plot strategy for the technology industry. Burgos will officially begin work at TechNet -- which bills itself as the ‘national, bipartisan network of innovation economy CEOs and senior executives’ -- on April 25 as its vice president of federal policy, government relations, and communications.” http://politi.co/2pfCrbM--ARJUN MODY to S-3 Public Affairs as principal: “From serving President Bush to Elizabeth Dole to Bono to Kay Bailey Hutchison to Carly Fiorina to John Barrasso, this has been the ride of a lifetime. April 21 will be my last day in the Senate.” … … Sara Sorcher started yesterday at USA Today as a White House editor. She was previously deputy cybersecurity/passcode editor at The Christian Science Monitor. ... Seth Stein is now working as a deputy press secretary for New York Mayor Bill de Blasio; he previously was national press secretary at the League of Conservation Voters.… Erin Donar recently joined Chase as head of communications for mortgage banking after serving as deputy assistant secretary for public affairs at the Treasury Department. Keosha Burns has also joined Chase as head of external communications for mortgage banking after previously handling public relations for Fannie Mae.REMEMBERING ALICIA PETERSON CLARK – “Prior to joining APCO in 2008, Alicia was U.S. Senator Richard Burr’s chief of staff, providing daily counsel on politics, policy, legislation and communications, as well as overseeing long-range strategic planning. Alicia also held a range of key positions in the campaigns and administration of President George W. Bush, including surrogate and state media director for 2000 campaign, where she built a nationwide team to manage daily media operations. In the White House, she served as a special assistant to the president and deputy director in the White House Office of Strategic Initiatives, where she directed long-range and strategic planning projects to advance presidential priorities. She also served as assistant to the vice president for political affairs.” http://bit.ly/2oKK9sZ BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Caitlin Hayden, EVP and group director -- media at Edelman and an NSC alum, celebrating at one of her favorite restaurants The Dabney with her husband, Erlingur Erlingsson, the Icelandic Deputy Chief of Mission in Washington. Her goal for this year: “Erlingur and I are overjoyed that we’re expecting our first baby in late July. So my highest priority this year is to learn how to be a great mom to our little Icelandic-American daughter.” Read her Playbook Plus Q&A: http://politi.co/2pAt2eBBIRTHDAYS: Joanne Ochsman … Ron Kaufman … Julie Mason ... CNN’s Emily Kuhn ... Jon Dominic Garcia, returning to Denver this summer as a KCNC anchor … Felix Gillette of Bloomberg BusinessWeek … conservative consultant Jim Kelly … Seth Solomonow of Bloomberg Associates ... Jonathan Levy, director of policy and strategy at Vision Ridge Partners and a DOE and Rahm alum ... Peter Giangreco ... Staci Appel (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Sarah Rozier, comms. director for Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) ... HHS spokeswoman Alleigh Marré, who celebrated in Nelson county (southwest of Charlottesville) over the weekend and tonight is going to dinner at an Italian restaurant despite her protests to work on the wedding (h/t fiancé Zack Roday) ... Jeff Fraser, founder at Sebonac Advisors, a tech-focused investment banking firm, is 29 ... Louis Agnello, senior counsel for Sen. Martin Heinrich and a founding member of Harmony, White & Blue (h/t Kurt Bardella) ... ... Courtney Sieloff, founder and president of Asana Creative (h/t Brad Bauman) ... Stateline.org staff writer Sophie Quinton ... Chicago Reader editorial intern Abbey Schubert, a USA Today alum (h/ts Colby Bermel) ... Laura Lee Burkett, LA for Rep. Steven Palazzo, is 24 (h/t Grace McKellip) ... Tory Brown, partner at The Pastorum Group, political director for Progress Now, taco aficionado, and enthusiast of the Washington-based Expos (h/t Josh Cohen) ... VIEW PAC’s Katie Delzell is 26 (h/t fiancé Taylor Haulsee) … Vic Beck, director of comms at Northrop Grumman ... Mudar Zahran ... Quorum’s Libby Wuller ... William Carter ... Politico Europe’s Kritasha Gupta ... Orde Kittrie, law professor and nonproliferation specialist and State alum … Kara Watt … Tory Brown … Patty Blumer ... Nat Grossman ... Lori Yates ... Russ Ferguson ... Luke Swarthout, director of adult education services at the NY Public Library and a Tom Harkin alum ... Jamie Bennett, executive director of ArtPlaceAmerica and an NEA alum ... Mary Liz Burns, comms. strategies director for financial security at AARP ... Suge Knight is 52 ... Ashley Judd is 49 ... James Franco is 39 ... Kate Hudson is 38 ... Hayden Christensen is 36 ... Maria Sharapova is 3-0 (h/ts AP)

18 апреля, 00:26

Distracted Nation "Buys The Dip"

Authored by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com, The military frolics of spring have distracted the nation’s attention from the economic and financial dynamics that pose the ultimate mortal threat to business as usual. Note the distinction between economic and financial. The first represents real activity in this Land of the Deal: people doing and making. The second, finance, used to be a minor branch — only about five percent — of all the doing in the days of America’s putative bigliest greatitude. The task of finance then was limited and straightforward: to manage the allocation of capital for more doing and making. The profit in that enabled bankers to drive Cadillacs instead of Chevrolets, but not much more. These days, finance is closer to 40 percent of all the doing in America, and it is not about making anything, but getting more than its share of “money” — whatever that is now — and what “money” mostly is is whatever the people engaged in finance say it is, for instance, Fannie Mae bonds representing millions of sketchy loans for houses of vinyl and strand-board built in places with no future… or stock issued by the Tesla corporation… or the sovereign IOUs of the US Treasury. The list of things that pretend to be “money” these days would be long and shocking and the sheer churn of these instruments among the banks and markets “produces” the fabled “revenue streams” beloved of The Wall Street Journal. What happens when the world discovers that these instruments (securities and their derivatives) represent falsely? Why, bigly trouble. And this is the season we’re moving into as the dogwoods blaze: the season of the re-discovery of actual value. For those of you gloating over last week’s demonstrations of US Big Stick-ism, be warned that our military shenanigans have given China and Russia every reason to discipline this country by undermining the international standing of the dollar. They’ve been preparing for this very deliberately for years: constructing an alternative to the US-sponsored SWIFT international payment system, stockpiling thousands of tons of gold, building trade partnerships to circumvent US dominated syndicates. Before the month of April is out, they’ll “pull the trigger” on new voting arrangements in the International Monetary Fund that will reduce the financial power of the US and the Eurozone, especially in the oil trade. Around the same moment, America will wake up to the awful reality of the debt ceiling. This petard has been ticking the whole time that the political bureaucracy of Washington has wasted its mojo on the quixotic crusade to blame Russia for the 2016 election outcome. Congress will return from the Easter recess to discover that they have a few mere days to debate and resolve the debt ceiling problem — that is, to raise it so the country can borrow more “money” — or else they’ll be faced with a shut-down of government operations, including their own generous emoluments. It’s a good thing (for them) that they have plenty of walking-around money from the mysterious perqs of government service, but the rest of America doesn’t have $500 to pay for a new set of tires or the extraction of an abscessed molar. Some readers may have long wondered what might happen in this country if the SNAP card refills and social security checks stopped coming. Perhaps we’re about to find out. Congress might find itself in a painfully tight spot. The Democrats would like nothing better than to let this drag on for a while in order to humiliate, and perhaps finish off, their arch-nemesis, the Golden Golem of Greatness. Many Republicans have a religious-strength ideological aversion to increasing the already appalling US debt load. The prospects are not bright for a quick-and-easy resolution to this quandary. The IMF voting re-set and the debt ceiling quagmire have the power to disrupt many of the arrangements that allow the banks and markets to continue pretending that their stuff has value. When that consensus trance snaps, President Trump may find himself in the unhappy position of having to declare a bank holiday. Unlike the usual holidays in America, there will no Easter Bunny, no Jack-o-lanterns, no Santa Claus. Just empty supermarket shelves and pissed-off people marshaling in the WalMart parking lots with flaming brands and espontoons.

17 апреля, 16:35

Почему ФРС не следует сокращать баланс активов?

Глава ФРС США Джанет Йеллен объявила, что эра стимулирующей денежно-кредитной политики подходит к концу. Регулятор планирует повышать ставку каждый год, пока она не достигнет около 3%. Представители ФРС намерены начать сокращение активов в конце года.

17 апреля, 16:35

Почему ФРС не следует сокращать баланс активов?

Глава ФРС США Джанет Йеллен объявила, что эра стимулирующей денежно-кредитной политики подходит к концу. Регулятор планирует повышать ставку каждый год, пока она не достигнет около 3%. Представители ФРС намерены начать сокращение активов в конце года.

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12 апреля, 02:20

Commercial Property Lending Tumbles As Retail / Hotel Originations Plunge

For those of you out there clinging to your commercial REIT stocks for their 'defensive' dividend yields while praying that the whole 'retail implosion' thing will simply go away, you may want to avert your eyes now.  According to the Mortgage Bankers Association 4Q 2016 commercial real estate loan originations survey, mortgage originations related to discretionary segments of the economy are in complete free fall with retail and hotel volumes down 19% and 39%, respectively.     A decrease in originations for hotel, health care, and retail properties led the overall decline in commercial/multifamily lending volumes when compared to the fourth quarter of 2015. The fourth quarter saw a 39 percent year-over-year decrease in the dollar volume of loans for hotel properties, a 24 percent decrease for health care properties, a 19 percent decrease for retail properties, a 4 percent decrease for industrial properties, a one percent decrease in multifamily property loans, and a 6 percent increase in office property loans. Commercial banks and insurance companies pulled back on new originations while Fannie/Freddie picked up the slack. Among investor types, the dollar volume of loans originated for commercial bank portfolios decreased by 17 percent year-over-year. There was a 6 percent year-over-year decline for life insurance company loans, a 2 percent decrease in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) loans, and a 4 percent increase in the dollar volume of Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) loans.   2016 marked the first YoY 4Q decline since the height of the 'great recession'.   Meanwhile, via the Wall Street Journal, prescient market observers remind us that markets tend to cycle rather than just rising in perpetuity...shocking news. Still, the bank recognizes that property values are at record levels after rising for eight years. “I’d say, if I could look back one year ago, we’re probably more cautious [now],” Mr. Myers said.   Some lenders are competing by making riskier loans such as those that finance construction or occupy a “mezzanine” position between first mortgages and equity. In the first quarter of 2017, construction and land loans on bank balance sheets were up 12.8% to $306.1 billion compared with the same period a year earlier, according to loan tracker Trepp LLC.   Lenders and developers have gotten especially aggressive in building rental apartments. More units are under way today than in any period since the mid-1970s, experts said.   “There’s no current looming event that regulators are looking to say we foresee a problem,” said Matthew Anderson, managing director of Trepp. “It’s just the sheer volume and pace of activity and the length of how long it’s gone on.” But we're sure this is just another temporary BTFD opportunity.

11 апреля, 11:26

200 строк кода подорвут мультитриллионную индустрию

Перефразируя известную реплику из фильма “Аэроплан”, скажу, что, похоже, я выбрал неправильную неделю, чтобы отключиться от интернета. За исключением пары-тройки часов в порту Гондураса, в течение нескольких дней я был добровольным изгнанником из интернета, и я не имел возможности общаться…читать далее →

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10 апреля, 22:35

200 Lines Of Code Will Disrupt This Multi-Trillion Dollar Industry

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com, To paraphrase that great scene from Airplane, it looks like I picked the wrong week to unplug from the Internet. Aside from a few hours when we docked in Honduras last week, I was on a self-imposed Internet exile and went several days devoid of any communication with the outside world. I missed a major scandal at the Fed, another terror attack in Europe, the start of a US military campaign in Syria, political chaos in South Africa, and more. But it was totally worth it. I was on a cruise ship for most of the week speaking at a high-end investment conference, and it was as fantastic experience. Most conferences are pathetic money grabs and giant wastes of time, so I turn down just about every request that my office receives to speak at other people’s events. But this one was organized by my friends Robert Helms and Russell Gray, two very classy and knowledgeable investors who always put on great events. What I enjoyed the most is that, in addition to speaking and having the opportunity to teach hundreds of people, I also had the opportunity to learn. Learning is our great gift as a species… one of the things that separates us from animals. Humanity rose from nothing because of our ability to learn, and our ability to pass on what we learned to the next generation. As the infinitely quotable historian Will Durant wrote, “Civilization is not inherited; it has to be learned and earned by each generation anew; if the transmission should be interrupted for one century, civilization would die, and we should be savages again. So our finest contemporary achievement is our unprecedented expenditure of wealth and toil in the provision of higher education for all.” ‘Education’ doesn’t mean ‘university’. It means learning from other intelligent, talented people. This is especially true in our modern Digital Age where wealth is derived from knowledge and information, not land and capital. Hundreds of years ago aristocratic landowners dominated the economy. Decades ago it was the business elite who controlled the capital and manufacturing capacity. Today it’s knowledge and ideas that win. Google (okay, ‘Alphabet’) started as nothing more than an algorithm to improve Internet search. 19-years later it’s one of the largest, most powerful companies in the world. Ditto for Facebook, whose simple idea of connecting users propelled it to become worth more than $400 billion in just 13-years. In fact Facebook is 20% more valuable than Johnson & Johnson, the largest manufacturing conglomerate in the world. (Bear in mind that JNJ has been in business for more than a century longer than Facebook; it was founded in 1886 when Grover Cleveland was President of the United States.) Or consider Blockchain, the financial technology that virtually eliminates the need for consumers to hold their savings in the banking system. The simplest Blockchain is a mere 200 lines of code. That’s it. So in other words, the centuries-old, multi-trillion dollar banking industry is at risk of being disrupted by just 200 lines of code. It’s extraordinary. Knowledge and ideas are real wealth today, and that’s why I always welcome the opportunity to share my own and learn from others. One of the most impressive things I saw last week was Robert Kiyosaki, author of the life-changing book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, sitting in each session as a student. Robert’s books have sold 50+ million copies. He owns hundreds of millions of dollars worth of high quality, cash-producing real estate. He’s incredibly wealthy, and he just turned 70-years old. Yet Robert remains a student and freely acknowledges that he still has so much to learn. He strolled into the classroom each morning with stacks of books that he’s been reading and piles of notes that he’s been taking. It was amazing. The general theme of the event was that Winter is Coming; there are clear signs of trouble ahead. Hearing from the Chief Economist of Fannie Mae (the quasi-government agency that dominates the housing market) was sobering. His presentation was packed with data indicating that US housing is “overpriced” and “very late in the cycle”. Other presenters discussed the looming stock market correction, coming bank failures in Europe, etc. My own remarks focused on the current or projected insolvency of the US government, Federal Reserve, and major trust funds like Social Security. But as I told the audience, it’s time for optimism. Yes, the real estate market is overpriced and the stock market is due for a gigantic correction. Yes, nearly every major western government and pension fund is hopelessly insolvent, and central banks are nearly insolvent– — and these circumstances will likely give rise to tactics like dramatically higher taxes, capital controls, and the chaotic pain that comes from default. In short, there are serious, serious problems in the system. But that doesn’t mean the world is coming to an end. Our species has seen much worse. There’s bound to be a major reset in the financial system, just as there have been so many others in the past, from the adoption of the gold florin in 1252 to the establishment of the Bretton Woods system in 1944. And as with previous resets, there will be winners and losers. Even during the episode of hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic in the 1920s (and the consequent reset) there were winners and losers. While most people got wiped out financially, a few people became fantastically wealthy because they saw what was coming, protected themselves, and positioned their investments to gain. Losers become victims. They put their entire livelihoods at risk due to a misguided faith that the system is rock solid and will never fail. Winners protect their downside risk and go after the abundance of opportunity that comes from rapid change. The difference between the two comes down to education… and the will to take action.

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06 апреля, 23:40

What I Learned About The US Real Estate Market This Week

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com, For the last several days I’ve been speaking at an investment conference organized by my friends Robert Helms and Russell Gray. It’s been great so far, and my fellow speakers here include the legendary Robert Kiyosaki, G. Edward Griffin, Peter Schiff, and many more. One of the key themes so far in the event is that there are likely problems ahead for the US real estate market. On the first day I had a great conversation with the Chief Economist of Fannie Mae, who was also speaking at the conference. If you’re not aware, Fannie Mae is a quasi-government agency that is heavily involved in the US housing sector. I asked him point blank– what do you think of US housing right now? He answered succinctly: “It’s overpriced.” His presentation went DEEP into the data, showing that US housing is “late in the cycle,” meaning that prices may soon reach their peaks and then suffer a substantial correction. Property prices nationwide across the United States have been rising at a much more rapid rate than wages and salaries. This is totally unsustainable. A number of prominent real estate investors and developers have also spoken anecdotally that they’re no longer buying. One gentleman who owns and operates more than 10,000 apartment units told us that he can no longer find any properties that meet his investment criteria. Everything is overpriced, and investment returns are falling. Even more amazing, he told us that banks financed his most recent deals at unbelievable terms– they loaned him hundreds of millions of dollars to fund his real estate projects at just 3%, on an interest-only basis. This is crazy. Considering that the official rate of inflation in the United States is nearing 3%, the banks practically loaned him the money for free. Think about it– he pays 3% interest, but the money loses nearly 3% of its value each year due to inflation… so essentially the money is zero cost. What an unbelievably stupid loan for the banks to make: as I remarked to the audience, the banks are once again putting their customers’ funds at risk and receiving zero return in exchange. This is another sign of a major bubble, similar to what happened ten years ago in the last crash. Property prices rose far too much, far too quickly… and banks were making completely irresponsible loans with their customers’ money. We’re now seeing signs that the same things are happening once again. No one here expects that any crash or major correction in US property prices is imminent. But in general, the consensus here is that you’re better off being a seller in the US right now rather than being a buyer. Do you have a Plan B?

03 апреля, 21:38

Rent or Buy? 15 Reasons Why Renting Is Better Than Buying a Home

Home ownership is just another word for debt. So we’re reshaping the American dream by telling you why renting a home is a smarter decision than buying.

02 апреля, 07:39

Obamacare Implosion Now? Since Obama Siphoned GSE Dividends To Prop Up, Can Trump Simply Halt 1st Qtr Sweep?

Earlier this month, Harvard Ph.D. Jerome Corsi of InfoWars (@jerome_corsi) and a CPA "who worked for two years for a major U.S. accounting firm as an outside auditor for Freddie Mac," confirmed a 2012 scheme hatched by the Obama administration to funnel hundreds of billions in dividends from Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prop up the failing Obamacare program - by paying subsidies to insurers to remain in the system. If you need to catch up on it, read the InfoWars article above or watch this 18 minute video:    The conclusion reached by Corsi and others is that this was probably illegal. In fact, House Republicans actually sued the Obama Administration in 2014 over the fact that the subsidies to insurers weren't appropriated by congress and won, which the Obama administration appealed. As Zerohedge and the Atlanta Journal Constitution pointed out last week, the Trump administration has until May 22nd to decide whether or not to pursue the appeal: In 2014, House Republicans sued the Obama administration over the constitutionality of the cost-sharing reduction payments, which had not been appropriated by Congress. The lawmakers won the lawsuit, and the Obama administration appealed it. Late last year, with a new administration on the other end of the suit, the House sought to pause the proceedings — with a deadline for a status update in late May. -AJC And a ZeroHedge analysis: Of course, any decision to remove those subsidies would likely result in yet another massive round of premium hikes and further withdrawals from the already crippled exchanges where an astounding number of counties across the country have already been cut to just 1 health insurance provider.  And, as we've pointed out before, higher rates = lower participation = deterioration of risk pool = higher rates....and the cycle just repeats until it eventually collapses. -ZeroHedge Meanwhile, President Trump has made several Tweets since the Ryancare debacle in congress: ObamaCare will explode and we will all get together and piece together a great healthcare plan for THE PEOPLE. Do not worry! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 25, 2017 The Democrats will make a deal with me on healthcare as soon as ObamaCare folds - not long. Do not worry, we are in very good shape! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 28, 2017 But wait, could it happen even sooner? Former Blackrock portfolio manager Ed Dowd may be on to something... By not long...do you literally mean weeks as you order the stop of the illegal Fannie/Freddy dividend sweep into Treasury thus ensuring ????? https://t.co/VEQ4bkgduG — Ed (@DowdEdward) March 28, 2017 Since MSM won't report #Fanniegate all #Trump has to do is stop the steal and Obamacareliterally implodes ???? Within weeks. Watch Dems run!???? https://t.co/vLzeJQbEhR — Ed (@DowdEdward) March 26, 2017 Simple question: what if Trump's Treasury simply stopped the illegal dividend sweep NOW? It is the end of the 1st quarter, after all... Not only would it force the MSM to cover Obama's 2012 scheme to siphon funds from Fannie and Freddie, the stage would be set for far more sensible healthcare solutions from lawmakers who aren't simply shilling for the industry. Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com * Follow on [email protected]

31 марта, 22:14

Fannie, Freddie may write down $21 billion due to U.S. tax cut: BMO

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may write down $21 billion of tax-related assets if there is a deep cut in the federal corporate tax rate as promised by...

31 марта, 21:02

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in February, Lowest since March 2008

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined to 1.19% in February, from 1.20% in January. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.52% in February 2016.This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since March 2008.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.Click on graph for larger imageAlthough the rate is declining, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.33 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until later this year.Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.

27 марта, 19:42

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declines in February, Lowest since June 2008

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was at 0.98%, down from 0.99% in January.  Freddie's rate is down from 1.26% in February 2016.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since June 2008.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  Click on graph for larger imageAlthough the rate is still declining, the rate of decline has slowed. Maybe the rate will decline another 0.25 percentage points or so to a cycle bottom, but this is pretty close to normal.Note: Fannie Mae will report soon.

24 марта, 12:09

Ivanka's lawyer, a Democrat, defends herself

Jamie Gorelick, a veteran of President Bill Clinton's Justice Department and a Hillary Clinton supporter, explains why she's working for Trump's daughter now.

24 марта, 00:21

Republican Senator Hails Goldman Sachs As A Champion Of 'The Little Guy'

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); WASHINGTON ― Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) announced on Thursday that he is trapped in a Randian nightmare where members of Congress seek to “beat down” the virtuous organization Goldman Sachs ― a benevolent force in American democracy that goes to great lengths to “employ the little guy.” “I feel like sometimes I’m living a reality TV version of Atlas Shrugged,” Tillis declared at a Senate hearing. “There are a lot of people in this Congress that wanna just beat down job creators and employers ... People want to demonize Goldman Sachs. That’s an easy thing to do, right? Just beat up on a financial services institution. An institution that’s committed to, let me look at the general numbers here ― they have 36,500 employees. There’s probably a lot of little guys in there. They’ve contributed billions of dollars to nonprofits.” “Demonizing employers that employ the little guy isn’t looking out for the little guy,” Tillis concluded. Tillis was speaking at the confirmation hearing for Jay Clayton, President Donald Trump’s nominee to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission. Clayton is a top Wall Street attorney who helped Goldman Sachs with its 2008 government bailout. Tillis’ outburst appeared to be a response to earlier questioning from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), whom Tillis griped about in a previous hearing for highlighting a conflict of interest involving President Donald Trump and federal affordable housing programs. Under government ethics rules, Warren noted, Clayton would have to recuse himself from any enforcement actions the SEC takes against companies that he represented, or companies that his law firm Sullivan & Cromwell represents in cases before the SEC. That creates a scenario in which the agency’s two Republican and two Democratic commissioners are likely to deadlock about enforcement ― a common occurrence during the tenure of SEC Chair Mary Jo White, who was also a prominent corporate attorney before going into government. “Based on your personal client disclosures then, for half of your tenure as SEC chair, you would not be able to vote to enforce the law against several big banks, including Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Barclays and UBS,” Warren told Clayton at the hearing. “Those banks have repeatedly violated securities laws in the past few years. But if they violate securities laws again in your first two years as SEC chairman, you can’t vote to punish them. And I think that’s a problem.” And indeed, Goldman Sachs has faced a long list of charges that it’s run afoul of the law. Last year, the bank agreed to pay $5 billion to settle charges that it defrauded its clients by selling them toxic mortgage-backed securities. It paid a $120 million penalty to settle charges that it manipulated foreign exchange markets. It paid a separate $36.3 million penalty to resolve charges that it accepted confidential regulatory information from the New York Fed and used it to get clients. In 2014, the company paid $3.15 billion to settle charges that it defrauded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In 2012, the bank paid $12 million to settle “pay-to-play” campaign contribution violations involving the Massachusetts state treasurer, paid $22 million to settle charges that its research and sales teams were holding meetings that allowed them to improperly share insider information, and paid $1.5 million and $7 million to settle two other supervision problems. A member of Goldman Sach’s board of directors was sentenced to prison the same year for illegally tipping off a hedge fund manager to the company’s boardroom secrets. In 2010, the bank paid $550 million to settle charges that it defrauded its own clients by selling them mortgage-linked securities that were designed to fail, and which Goldman Sachs itself bet against. That just covers the years since the financial crisis. Prior to that, Goldman Sachs had settled charges that it had rigged the auction-rate securities market, cheated while managing initial public offerings, and illegally traded government bonds.  Goldman Sachs did not respond to a request for comment for this article.  “Any financial services executive or anybody in a financial services business that acts badly needs to suffer the consequences,” Tillis said Thursday. “But if we just make the American people think that they’re all bad, you are hurting the little guy.” Still, Tillis’ most grievous error at the hearing was one of literary interpretation. Tillis simply does not understand the book he referenced during his tirade. Atlas Shrugged is a novel about a railroad tycoon who has an affair with a married steel magnate before joining a clan of very bright rich people who go on “strike,” letting society collapse without their talents while they enjoy the ubermensch lifestyle in a peaceful valley. Atlas Shrugged is not a novel about all the charities supported by good-hearted corporations. Its heroes literally abandon society to chaos and destruction rather than deploy their talents for the public good. Ayn Rand, the author of Atlas Shrugged, would not have approved of Goldman’s philanthropic work, because she believed all charitable activity fostered weakness and opposed it on principle. She literally wrote a book called The Virtue of Selfishness, which celebrates people who act in their own interests at the expense of their communities.   It’s not exactly an alien worldview on Wall Street. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

24 марта, 00:21

Republican Senator Hails Goldman Sachs As A Champion Of 'The Little Guy'

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); WASHINGTON ― Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) announced on Thursday that he is trapped in a Randian nightmare where members of Congress seek to “beat down” the virtuous organization Goldman Sachs ― a benevolent force in American democracy that goes to great lengths to “employ the little guy.” “I feel like sometimes I’m living a reality TV version of Atlas Shrugged,” Tillis declared at a Senate hearing. “There are a lot of people in this Congress that wanna just beat down job creators and employers ... People want to demonize Goldman Sachs. That’s an easy thing to do, right? Just beat up on a financial services institution. An institution that’s committed to, let me look at the general numbers here ― they have 36,500 employees. There’s probably a lot of little guys in there. They’ve contributed billions of dollars to nonprofits.” “Demonizing employers that employ the little guy isn’t looking out for the little guy,” Tillis concluded. Tillis was speaking at the confirmation hearing for Jay Clayton, President Donald Trump’s nominee to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission. Clayton is a top Wall Street attorney who helped Goldman Sachs with its 2008 government bailout. Tillis’ outburst appeared to be a response to earlier questioning from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), whom Tillis griped about in a previous hearing for highlighting a conflict of interest involving President Donald Trump and federal affordable housing programs. Under government ethics rules, Warren noted, Clayton would have to recuse himself from any enforcement actions the SEC takes against companies that he represented, or companies that his law firm Sullivan & Cromwell represents in cases before the SEC. That creates a scenario in which the agency’s two Republican and two Democratic commissioners are likely to deadlock about enforcement ― a common occurrence during the tenure of SEC Chair Mary Jo White, who was also a prominent corporate attorney before going into government. “Based on your personal client disclosures then, for half of your tenure as SEC chair, you would not be able to vote to enforce the law against several big banks, including Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Barclays and UBS,” Warren told Clayton at the hearing. “Those banks have repeatedly violated securities laws in the past few years. But if they violate securities laws again in your first two years as SEC chairman, you can’t vote to punish them. And I think that’s a problem.” And indeed, Goldman Sachs has faced a long list of charges that it’s run afoul of the law. Last year, the bank agreed to pay $5 billion to settle charges that it defrauded its clients by selling them toxic mortgage-backed securities. It paid a $120 million penalty to settle charges that it manipulated foreign exchange markets. It paid a separate $36.3 million penalty to resolve charges that it accepted confidential regulatory information from the New York Fed and used it to get clients. In 2014, the company paid $3.15 billion to settle charges that it defrauded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In 2012, the bank paid $12 million to settle “pay-to-play” campaign contribution violations involving the Massachusetts state treasurer, paid $22 million to settle charges that its research and sales teams were holding meetings that allowed them to improperly share insider information, and paid $1.5 million and $7 million to settle two other supervision problems. A member of Goldman Sach’s board of directors was sentenced to prison the same year for illegally tipping off a hedge fund manager to the company’s boardroom secrets. In 2010, the bank paid $550 million to settle charges that it defrauded its own clients by selling them mortgage-linked securities that were designed to fail, and which Goldman Sachs itself bet against. That just covers the years since the financial crisis. Prior to that, Goldman Sachs had settled charges that it had rigged the auction-rate securities market, cheated while managing initial public offerings, and illegally traded government bonds.  Goldman Sachs did not respond to a request for comment for this article.  “Any financial services executive or anybody in a financial services business that acts badly needs to suffer the consequences,” Tillis said Thursday. “But if we just make the American people think that they’re all bad, you are hurting the little guy.” Still, Tillis’ most grievous error at the hearing was one of literary interpretation. Tillis simply does not understand the book he referenced during his tirade. Atlas Shrugged is a novel about a railroad tycoon who has an affair with a married steel magnate before joining a clan of very bright rich people who go on “strike,” letting society collapse without their talents while they enjoy the ubermensch lifestyle in a peaceful valley. Atlas Shrugged is not a novel about all the charities supported by good-hearted corporations. Its heroes literally abandon society to chaos and destruction rather than deploy their talents for the public good. Ayn Rand, the author of Atlas Shrugged, would not have approved of Goldman’s philanthropic work, because she believed all charitable activity fostered weakness and opposed it on principle. She literally wrote a book called The Virtue of Selfishness, which celebrates people who act in their own interests at the expense of their communities.   It’s not exactly an alien worldview on Wall Street. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

23 марта, 14:12

‘IT’S ALL UP TO THE WHITE HOUSE NOW’ -- 'TRUMPCARE' already here -- ROGER STONE’s email defending himself -- DEMS weigh Gorsuch deal -- THE JUICE: LIZ ALLEN to GPG -- B'DAY: Ryan Grim

Listen to Playbook in 90 Seconds http://bit.ly/2nar2pG ... Subscribe on iTunes http://apple.co/2eX6Eay ... Visit the online home of Playbook http://politi.co/2f51JnfGood Thursday morning. THE REALITY -- ‘IT’S ALL UP TO THE WHITE HOUSE NOW’ -- The health-care bill is really down to a coin flip. The mood in the Capitol yesterday was tense -- not because people were worried about failure, but because the situation was so fluid it was difficult to get a real read on what was transpiring. Even the smartest and savviest vote counters had no idea whether they will be able to pass this bill to replace the Affordable Care Act. As of publishing time this morning, House Republicans planned to bring this bill to the floor Thursday no matter what the whip count looked like. We wouldn’t be surprised if the vote came after the market closed. (NOTE: Big thanks to John Bresnahan and the best-in-class POLITICO Hill team for keeping us honest and abreast of all twists and turns.)HERE’S THE DEAL. The conservative House Freedom Caucus -- which will meet with PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP this morning at 11:30 a.m. -- wants to not only eliminate coverage requirements for health insurers in the Obamacare bill (known as essential health benefits), but they also want to repeal the law’s Title One, which includes rules on coverage for pre-existing conditions and allowing children to remain on their parents’ plan up to age 26. As of early this morning, the leadership and White House were cool to that proposal. -- HFC SPOKESMAN ALYSSA FARAH (@Alyssafarah) at 11:12 p.m.: “No decisions reached. Continuing to negotiate. The Freedom Caucus continues to have serious concerns with current AHCA text.” Rep. Mark Meadows' statement http://bit.ly/2naGNNq **SUBSCRIBE to Playbook: http://politi.co/2lQswbhTHE NUMBERS. The dramatic changes to this bill throw the whip count in serious flux. House Republican leaders have now lost the support of moderates like Reps. Chris Smith and Frank LoBiando of New Jersey, Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania and David Young of Iowa. Watch for other moderate Republicans who see this as an opportunity to ditch the bill without major political consequence. There are 237 House Republicans and 215 need to vote yes to pass this bill. They can lose 22 lawmakers.THE HYPOCRISY. Republicans are doing exactly what they accused Democrats of doing in 2010. They are rewriting this bill behind closed doors in the dead of night. They are using the powerful Rules Committee to give themselves remarkable authority to bring up and vote on any bill in the same day -- known, quite ominously, as “martial law.” THE STAKES ...-- THE FREEDOM CAUCUS. To call this a critical moment for the House Freedom Caucus -- the clutch of conservative members in the House -- would be like calling Michael Jordan a weekend men’s league warrior. If the Freedom Caucus succeeds in getting the changes it wants and doesn’t put up the votes for the bill, their future negotiating stance will be seriously diminished. Even if they get half of what they want -- just eliminating essential health benefits -- and don’t put up some votes, it will be problematic in Trump’s eyes. But if they succeed here, they have the keys to the castle. If they get the changes they want, and help push this bill across the finish line, their negotiating tactics -- forcing changes at the last minute -- will be completely validated.-- PAUL RYAN. The House speaker crafted the legislative sequencing of 2017 -- health care repeal first and tax reform second. People close to Ryan know a defeat here will be a critical blow for the Wisconsin Republican, but they say that he cares little about his long-term political standing in the House, so he’s willing to get down and dirty. But there’s no doubt that not passing this bill would sow distrust in the West Wing, and put in doubt the leadership’s ability to shepherd the rest of the GOP’s agenda. A victory here would be big for Ryan -- at least in the short term.-- DONALD TRUMP. The president ran on being able to handle these situations better than anyone else. He always said that it was him, and him alone, who could close these deals. Remember? ‘We don’t make good deals anymore … Obamacare is a disaster -- I’ll take care of it.’ OK, well we’ll see today whether that’s true. At this point, it’s Trump versus a group of more than two dozen conservative lawmakers who have spent years stifling John Boehner and Paul Ryan. The GOP leadership is calling Trump ‘the closer’ -- a subtle nod to their belief that it’s his job to get this thing through. A loss here would throw that -- and Trump’s entire legislative agenda -- into question.-- THE AGENDA. Republicans have talked about repealing Obamacare for nearly a decade. If they can’t get it done, how can we expect tax reform to get done? Forget the silly August deadline that the New York wing of Trump’s White House is peddling. If they can’t get health care done in the House, where the GOP enjoys a large majority, how can they rewrite the incredibly complex tax code?-- DEMOCRATS are holding strong against the bill. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) can smell blood in the water. Expect to hear more about how Trumpcare will tax older Americans, provide less coverage and cost more. By the way, Pelosi dealt with similar dynamics in 2009 during Obamacare -- her liberals wanted a public health-insurance option. They promised to never vote for any bill without it. Over a few months, they systematically broke down.-- SOMETHING TO REMEMBER -- The last time Republicans owned something big on health care was in 2003 with President George W. Bush’s Medicare prescription drug bill. GOP leadership had to basically lock the doors and hold open the vote for hours to flip three or four holdouts. The political dynamics were far different back then. The GOP had a strong whip in Tom Delay, and they had goodies to dole out, like earmarks.-- THE REAL QUESTION. What is the Republican endgame here? They’ve made so many changes to the bill that nearly everyone concedes that, even if House Republicans pass it, it is basically dead on arrival in the Senate. It’s hard to remember a more consequential vote or issue where there wasn’t a long-term political strategy. Even if this somehow becomes law, it will almost certainly face issues in implementation. Republicans are coming up against the hard reality that voters want more health care for less cost, which is virtually impossible to deliver on.THE LATEST -- “White House shift to right on health care angers moderates,” by Kyle Cheney, Rachael Bade and John Bresnahan. http://politi.co/2nfw99Q … “Inside Trump’s last-ditch bid to avoid a health care disaster,” by Rachael Bade, John Bresnahan and Kyle Cheney http://politi.co/2mTG1mh --“Is Trumpcare already here?” by Politico Pulse author Dan Diamond: “No matter what happens to the Republicans’ troubled health bill in Congress, Trumpcare is here to stay. The Trump administration has already begun to transform the health insurance market, wielding executive power to rewrite coverage rules, slash Obamacare’s marketing budget and signal an all-out assault on his predecessor’s health care law. And Republicans have high expectations the administration will take additional measures to unwind Obamacare, such as targeting its contraception coverage requirement at the center of two recent religious liberty cases at the Supreme Court.” http://politi.co/2mXhxZR … Subscribe to Pulse http://politi.co/2mVjdWD -- THE PAUL STREET JOURNAL: “Keeping Our Promise to Repeal ObamaCare: Our bill guts the failing law and enacts conservative reform without pulling the rug out from under anyone,” by Speaker Paul Ryan in the Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/2nMdlQV WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE DOING -- The Democratic National Committee is launching robocalls to roughly 50 vulnerable Republican House districts this morning. The calls to constituents in those districts feature DNC Chair Tom Perez telling voters about the “disastrous bill and how it would affect people between the age of 50-65, urging them to contact Congress.”-- AMERICAN BRIDGE -- the outside Democratic group -- is releasing a digital ad targeting disaffected Trump voters (including people who voted for President Barack Obama but also voted for Trump) with an emphasis on congressional districts with vulnerable Republican incumbents. The ad http://bit.ly/2na5nhmWITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE … -- “Koch network pledges to defend Republicans who vote against GOP health bill,” by Kevin Robillard: http://politi.co/2o7xkWqTHE TRUTH BOMB -- RICH LOWRY in Politico, “The Health Care Albatross”: “Republicans should get used to it. Their agony on health care is just beginning. For the past seven years, the party benefited from its powerlessness, which usefully maximized its ability to criticize Obamacare and minimized its responsibility to do anything about it. Now, with unified control of government, the party will pay the piper. Nothing good will come of the Obamacare repeal-and-replace debate. If anything resembling the current bill passes and is signed into law, Republicans will spend years trying to fix it and live it down. If the bill fails, the rest of President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda may sink with it.” http://politi.co/2nFNf1v TRUMP’S THURSDAY -- In addition to his meeting with the Freedom Caucus, Trump will have lunch with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and billionaire investment manager Nelson Peltz. At 3:25 p.m., he’ll meet with truckers and CEOS.-- THE TRUCKING CEOS: Kevin W. Burch of Jet Express; James Donald Burg of James Burg Trucking; David Congdon of Old Dominion Freight Lines; Michael Ducker of FedEx Freight; William Fuller of US Xpress; Neal J. Kedzie of Wisconsin Motor Carriers Association; Richard McArdle of UPS Freight; Dennis Nash of The Kenan Advantage Group; Tonn N. Ostergard of Crete Carrier Corp.; John Smith of CRST; and Christopher T. Spear of the American Trucking Associations. TRUCKERS: Steven Fields. Ralph B. Garcia, David Green, Rhonda Hartman, William Lex, David Livingston, Donald Ray Logan, Derrick Whittle, Charlton Paul, Jr., Russel A. Simpson, Todd Allen Stine, Barney Earl Taylor, Jerry Langer.HMM -- “U.S. officials: Info suggests Trump associates may have coordinated with Russians,” by CNN’s Pamela Brown, Evan Perez and Shimon Prokupecz: “The FBI has information that indicates associates of President Donald Trump communicated with suspected Russian operatives to possibly coordinate the release of information damaging to Hillary Clinton’s campaign, U.S. officials told CNN. This is partly what FBI Director James Comey was referring to when he made a bombshell announcement Monday before Congress that the FBI is investigating the Trump campaign's ties to Russia, according to one source. The FBI is now reviewing that information, which includes human intelligence, travel, business and phone records and accounts of in-person meetings, according to those U.S. officials. The information is raising the suspicions of FBI counterintelligence investigators that the coordination may have taken place, though officials cautioned that the information was not conclusive and that the investigation is ongoing.” http://cnn.it/2ng62PZ -- “[Adam] Schiff: There is now ‘more than circumstantial evidence’ of Trump-Russia collusion,” by Madeline Conway: “‘I can tell you that the case is more than that,’ Schiff told Chuck Todd on MSNBC. ‘And I can’t go into the particulars, but there is more than circumstantial evidence now.’ When Todd followed up, asking if he had ‘seen direct evidence of collusion,’ Schiff would not say so directly, but insisted that he has seen some ‘evidence that is not circumstantial’ and is worth investigating.” http://politi.co/2mXmCl2 --SPEAKING OF WHICH -- PLAYBOOK INBOX -- “A personal note from Roger Stone”: “I am anxious to rebut allegations that I had any improper or nefarious contact with any agent of the Russia State based on facts, not misleading and salacious headlines. Claims of Russian influence or collusion in the Trump Campaign by the Intelligence Community are backed up by ZERO evidence. But now Rep. Adam Schiff, having slimed me in public session seems to be backing away from a confrontation. I demand the right to face my accusers. I will deconstruct their lies and spank them like children. Swallwell [sic], Speier all must be confronted with their lies and smear tactics. ... I’m ready to testify.” See Roger’s full email http://politi.co/2mXvBTn BULLETIN at 6 a.m.: “WASHINGTON (AP) - U.S. Treasury agents obtained information about ex-Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort’s offshore financial activities.” Story by Jack Gillum, Menelaos Hadjicostis and Eric Tucker http://apne.ws/2nMagA8 WORTH A READ -- TRUMP INTERVIEW WITH TIME’s MICHAEL SCHERER -- On accusing President Obama of wire tapping, Trump said: “I’m a very instinctual person, but my instinct turns out to be right. I have articles saying that it happened.”--On his unsubstantiated claim that 3 million undocumented immigrants voted illegally, Trump said he would be proved right eventually, though he hinted that he no longer stood by all parts of that claim, saying, “When I say that, mostly they register wrong. In other words, for the votes, they register incorrectly, and/ or illegally. I’m forming a committee on it.”-- On the risk to his reputation caused by saying false things, Trump said: “Hey, look, I can’t be doing so badly, because I’m President and you’re not. You know. Say hello to everybody, OK?” http://ti.me/2mXHt7Z … Time’s cover, “Is Truth Dead?” http://ti.me/2mTvpUe GORSUCH WATCH -- “Democrats weigh deal to let Gorsuch through,” by Burgess Everett: “A group of Senate Democrats is beginning to explore trying to extract concessions from Republicans in return for allowing Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch to be confirmed, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. The lawmakers worry that Gorsuch could be confirmed whether Democrats try to block him or not -- and Democrats will be left with nothing to show for it. That would be a bitter pill after the GOP blocked Merrick Garland for nearly a year. “The deal Democrats would be most likely to pursue, the sources said, would be to allow confirmation of Gorsuch in exchange for a commitment from Republicans not to kill the filibuster for a subsequent vacancy during President Donald Trump’s term. The next high court opening could alter the balance of the court, and some Democrats privately argue that fight will be far more consequential than the current one.” http://politi.co/2mT7RPsBUT, BUT, BUT -- “Democrats Seize on Disability Ruling to Bolster Their Case Against Gorsuch,” by WSJ’s Jess Bravin: http://on.wsj.com/2mTFosCTHE JUICE …-- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: LIZ ALLEN, former White House deputy communications director and deputy assistant to President Obama, is joining Glover Park Group as a senior vice president in the firm’s strategic communications practice. Allen served in senior communications and leadership roles through all eight years of the Obama administration, including in the Office of the Vice President and the U.S. Department of State. -- MORNING JOE EXCLUSIVE: U.K. Foreign Minister Boris Johnson in the 7 a.m. hour this morning.THE ADMINISTRATION -- “Search for Secret Service Leader Intensifies as White House Security Is Tested,” by NYT’s Nick Fandos: “Aides to President Trump are narrowing a list of candidates to lead the Secret Service ... [T]op aides have been looking at candidates inside and outside the agency who can improve its morale and regain the credibility lost after a string of embarrassing lapses. They hope to name a new director in the coming weeks. ... Critics of the agency have seized on the most recent cases to amplify calls for the White House to recruit a leader from outside the Secret Service, which would be unprecedented in the famously hidebound agency’s modern history. They insisted that only someone untethered from the agency’s ways of thinking could institute the kind of reforms necessary to guide the organization.” http://nyti.ms/2o7UID3 TRUMP INC. -- “Trump’s early policy moves benefit the industries he knows best - his own,” by Darren Samuelsohn: “Donald Trump’s presidency has been good for business, with a soaring stock market, a freeze on new regulations and an Oval Office that appears to have an open door for CEOs. But Trump has been especially good news for the industries in which he has a personal interest: real estate, construction, entertainment, hospitality, gambling and, of course, golf. Since taking office in January, Trump has made moves -- from rolling back water quality permits to signaling big changes on overtime pay and internet betting -- that benefit the fields he knows best. And his former peers -- partners and competitors alike -- are finding familiar faces in Trump’s White House and Cabinet agencies, who have the power to make even more of their wish lists come true.” http://politi.co/2nFFicDLONDON ATTACK LATEST -- “Major raids conducted after London attack; 7 arrested,” by AP’s Frank Griffiths and Gregory Katz in London: “British police conducted major raids and arrested seven people in connection with the attack outside Parliament that left four dead, including the man who mowed down pedestrians on a bridge and fatally stabbed an officer, a senior police official said Thursday. Metropolitan Police counterterrorism chief Mark Rowley said that he believed the attacker acted alone and was ‘inspired by international terrorism.’” http://apne.ws/2mTzubb-- “Donald Trump Jr. Criticizes London Mayor After Deadly Attack,” by NYT’s Liam Stack: “It has become something of an online custom in the social media age to react to tragic news stories -- like Wednesday’s attack in London -- with well-meaning if sometimes rote messages like ‘thoughts and prayers.’ But that does not appear to be Donald Trump Jr.’s style. ‘You have to be kidding me?!’ Mr. Trump said Wednesday afternoon on Twitter ... Mr. Trump, the oldest son of President Trump, was calling attention to an article from September in The Independent, a British newspaper, that described Mr. Khan’s reaction to a bombing then in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York City. Mr. Trump mischaracterized the London mayor’s remarks. Mr. Khan did not describe terrorism as ‘part of living in a big city,’ as if bombings and shootings were an inescapable fact of life. He said that terrorism preparedness, including providing sufficient support to the police, was ‘part and parcel of living in a great global city.’” http://nyti.ms/2nqrSk3 COMING ATTRACTIONS -- “Trump meets Black Caucus and vows action on drug prices,” by Elana Schor and Matt Nussbaum: “President Donald Trump had a ‘candid’ discussion with members of the Congressional Black Caucus Wednesday, lawmakers said, while also repeating his politically-challenging campaign promise to tackle high prescription drug prices. … ‘I think we’re going to do it in health care, or we’re going to do it separately, but we’re going to bid down drug prices, and we’re going to try to have the lowest prices anywhere in the world from really the highest,’ Trump told the lawmakers, according to a pool report.” http://politi.co/2nUyMMvHOT TAKE -- DANA MILBANK in WaPo, “Lincoln was a Republican, slavery is bad — and more discoveries by President Obvious”: “Seeking and winning the presidency has been a magical voyage of discovery for Donald Trump. Tuesday night, he divulged a most remarkable finding: Abraham Lincoln was -- are you sitting down for this? -- a Republican. ‘Most people don’t even know he was a Republican,’ Trump told a group of Republicans. ... He has repeatedly tried to educate the populace on this little-known fact. August 2016: ‘Most people don’t know this. The Republican Party is ... the party of Abraham Lincoln.’ September 2016: ‘A lot of people don’t realize that Abraham Lincoln, the great Abraham Lincoln, was a Republican.’ October 2016: ‘A lot of people don’t know that it’s the party of Abraham Lincoln.’” http://wapo.st/2naeZJ7WEST COAST WATCH -- “Many Californians unsure of Kamala Harris, poll says,” by California Playbook co-author David Siders in Sacramento: “California Sen. Kamala Harris remains unknown to many residents of her own state despite maintaining a high profile in Washington, while California’s senior senator, Dianne Feinstein, has seen her job approval rating tick down, according to a new poll. Forty-six percent of Californians approve of the job Harris is doing, while 23 percent disapprove, according to a poll released late Wednesday by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. But 30 percent of Californians – including 20 percent of Democrats – say they don’t know how to rate Harris’ performance, according to the poll, which is the PPIC’s first post-election measure of Harris’ job approval.” http://politi.co/2nfHxT5BUSINESS BURST -- “U.S. Preparing Cases Linking North Korea to Theft at N.Y. Fed,” by WSJ’s Aruna Viswanatha and Nicole Hong: “Federal prosecutors are building cases that would accuse North Korea of directing one of the biggest bank robberies of modern times, the theft of $81 million from Bangladesh’s account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last year ... The charges, if filed, would target alleged Chinese middlemen who prosecutors believe helped North Korea orchestrate the theft ... In the heist, cyberthieves used the SWIFT access codes of Bangladesh’s central bank in one February 2016 weekend to transfer $81 million from the bank’s account at the New York Fed to four bank accounts in the Philippines.” http://on.wsj.com/2mXgk50 DEEP DIVE -- “The New Detroit: The South’s manufacturing renaissance comes with a heavy price,” by Peter Waldman in Bloomberg Businessweek: “Alabama has been trying on the nickname ‘New Detroit.’ Its burgeoning auto parts industry employs 26,000 workers, who last year earned $1.3 billion in wages. ... Parts suppliers in the American South compete for low-margin orders against suppliers in Mexico and Asia. They promise delivery schedules they can’t possibly meet and face ruinous penalties if they fall short. Employees work ungodly hours, six or seven days a week, for months on end. Pay is low, turnover is high, training is scant, and safety is an afterthought, usually after someone is badly hurt. Many of the same woes that typify work conditions at contract manufacturers across Asia now bedevil parts plants in the South. ... The files read like Upton Sinclair, or even Dickens.” http://buswk.co/SouthernAutoJobs ... The cover http://politi.co/2nqv53sMEDIAWATCH -- “Federal staffers panicked by conservative media attacks: A spate of stories in Breitbart and other outlets have singled out individual career employees, questioning their loyalty to Trump,” by Nahal Toosi and Andrew Restuccia: “The articles -- which have appeared in Breitbart News, the Conservative Review and other outlets -- have alarmed veteran officials in both parties as well as current executive branch staffers. They say the stories are adding to tensions between career staffers and political appointees as they begin to implement Trump’s agenda, and they worry that the stories could inspire Trump to try purging federal agencies of perceived enemies. The claims posted on the conservative sites include allegations of anti-Israel and pro-Iran bias against staffers at institutions such as the State Department and the National Security Council. Breitbart ... has even published lists of workers that the president should fire. Washington veterans say they can’t recall similar targeting of government employees, who are required to stay apolitical and generally shun the spotlight.” http://politi.co/2mvgwMy -- ANNIE KARNI will moderate a talk Sunday with former top Obama aide Alyssa Mastromonaco at Politics & Prose about life in the White House and her new book, “Who Thought This Was a Good Idea?: And Other Questions You Should Have Answers to When You Work in the White House”. Audrey Gelman, co-founder of The Wing and a Clinton campaign alum, also is joining the conversation. http://bit.ly/2mvjSPNSPOTTED: Eric Trump yesterday walking in downtown Aspen across from Rag and Bone wearing a half-zipped sweater with a bunch of Secret Service, per our tipster … Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) having dinner Wednesday at Casa Luca. … Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) at Bistro Italiano on Capitol Hill eating pasta. … Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) having breakfast Tuesday with former Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) -- the chairman of the MPAA -- at a back table in the Senate dining room. … Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in Kalorama … Eliot Spitzer arriving in D.C. at Union Station. OUT AND ABOUT -- ELLE magazine’s Robbie Myers played host Wednesday night to honor the magazine’s “Women in Washington Power List.” The dinner at Fiola Mare brought together a who’s who of Washington’s most powerful women. Magazine story http://bit.ly/2o7SnIl On the list: Sarah Chamberlain, Jacquelyn Days Serwer, Debra L. Lee, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), Meighan Stone, Rhea Suh, Katy Tur, Judy Woodruff. Pic http://bit.ly/2nqvNxxSPOTTED: Reps. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), Heather Podesta, Juleanna Glover, Kimball Stroud, Missy Edwards, Peter Selfridge, Parita Shah Selfridge, Kathleen Biden, Jennifer Tapper, Kelley McCormick, Tammy Haddad, Melissa Moss, Susanna Quinn, Dana Bash, Kate Bennett, Emily Lenzer, Emily Heil, Marissa Mitrovich, Erin McPike, Nick Massella, Adrienne Elrod, Christine Delargy, Natalie Jones, Stephanie Green, Maggie Bullock, Jen Hing, and Leah Chernikoff. --AMAZON had a party for members of Congress who have Amazon jobs in their states or districts -- they call them the “home team.” The confab was in Longworth Wednesday night. SPOTTED: Reps. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.), Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.), Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), Charlie Dent (R-Pa.), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.), Denny Heck (D-Wash.), Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.), Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), Rick Larsen (D-Wash.) Jason Lewis (R-Minn.), Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), Donald Norcross (D-N.J.) Todd Rokita (R-Ind.), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), Dina Titus (D-Nev.) and Marc Veasey (D-Texas), Amazon’s Jay Carney, Brian Huseman, Blair Anderson, Steve Hartell, Ashleigh de la Torre, Allison Cullin, Ben Gielow, Kate Viar, Jena Gross (the pride of Easton, Connecticut), Jill Kerr and more.--Bush 43 Homeland Security alum Ed Cash held a party last night to celebrate his firm Frontier Security Strategies expanding to add a team of 25 people from the homeland security/public safety world. SPOTTED at the reception at the Sidecar at P.J Clarke’s: former Gov. Tom Ridge (pic with Ed: http://bit.ly/2nFUKFR), Clarine Riddle, Jim Williams, Tim Manning, Chris Geldart, Admiral Tom Atkin, Chad Sweet, James McCament, Robert Samaan, Jay Nelson, Rowdy Adams, Darrell Darnell, Jonathan Hoffman, Fred Schwien, Brian Cohen, Jim Staples, Josh Filler, Jan Lane, Kelli Kedis Ogborn, Ross Ashley, Don Kent, Lee Morris, Mercedes Legrand, Catie Horst, John and Abby Allen, Kristina Dorville, Matt Allen, Michael Petrucelli, Jim Ansberry, Luke Bellocchi, Brad Saull, Donald Tighe, Rich Cooper, Dennis Murphy, Hun Kim, Bill Lockhart, Andy Purdy, Eli Hammerman, Chris Armstrong, Dan Caine-- The MPAA hosted a reception and screening last night of Sony’s “Life,” starring Jake Gyllenhaal, Rebecca Ferguson, and Ryan Reynolds. Trailer http://bit.ly/2mTyYKa SPOTTED: Jeanne Meserve, Jeff Blount, Bob Mondello, Lyndsey Boerma, Nihal Krishan, Mike Memoli, Brenna Williams, Ruth Morris, Jared Parks, Michael Balmoris, Blake Androff, Kerry McNellis, Caitlin Legacki, Tim McCann, Sam Sokol, and Dennis Wharton, John Cochran -- The Washington Legal Clinic held its 30th annual home court basketball game fundraiser. Organized by students at Georgetown Law School, the event which typically pits lawmakers against a team of Georgetown Law faculty and staff had to rejigger its roster after all 10 members of Congress backed out with the health care debate going on. While Dean Treanor lead the Hoya’s Lawya’s to victory over the remains of the Hill’s Angels, the Washington Legal Clinic for the Homeless was the big winner as they announced a Home Court fundraising record of over $1,036,000 raised for the night’s event. TRANSITIONS -- After three years and two tours with EMILY’s List, executive director JESSICA O’CONNELL is leaving the organization after its We Are EMILY National Conference and Gala in May. During her time at the group, EMILY’s List has grown from a community of 3 million to 5 million people. The group helped to quadruple the number of women of color in the U.S. Senate, elected 269 women at the state and local level and raised $90 million for pro-choice Democratic women during the 2016 cycle.– Mercury has announced six new partners to the PR firm’s leadership: Tracy Arnold, Paul Bauer, John Gallagher, Glenn Gritzner, John Lonergan and Duncan McFetridge. http://politi.co/2mX92OM SUNDAY SO FAR -- “Fox News Sunday”: Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. Panel: Bill Kristol, Susan Page, Newt Gingrich, Charles Lane.--NBC’s “Meet the Press”: California Gov. Jerry Brown.BIRTHWEEK (was Tuesday): Joi Ridley, deputy executive director and director of membership and marketing of the National Bar Association (h/t Clintandra Thompson)BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: HuffPost DC bureau chief Ryan Grim, the pride of Still Pond, Md., is 39 – how he’s celebrating: “I’ll be flying to Boston to moderate a panel at Harvard the next day on marijuana legalization, which is several outlandish dreams come true all at once” – read his Playbook Plus Q&A: http://politi.co/2o7EHwM BIRTHDAYS: The Affordable Care Act is 7 – will it survive to see its 8th birthday? … Nita Chaudhary, co-founder and co-executive director of UltraViolet and a MoveOn and DNC alum ... Politico’s Brett Norman ... Michael Caputo ... Rep. Brian Babin (R-Tex.) is 69 ... Economist cartoonist Kevin Kallaugher ... Johnny DeStefano, assistant to the President and director of presidential personnel, former president of GOP Data Trust and NRCC alum (h/t Mike Shields) ... Suzanne Turner of turner4D ... Dawn Selak, DOE and Obama WH comms. alum … former Hill/ONE staffer Kim Hunter, now VP of comms at Aclima ... Debbi Mayster of DMM Communications ... Alec Gerlach … Derek Boyse, investment banking analyst at J.P. Morgan in Houston, is 23 – he and his family are celebrating in Texas this weekend (h/t siblings Fentress and Natalie) ... Maggie Gage, Leahy and Sen. Judiciary Cmte. alum, Georgetown adjunct faculty and head of political strategies at Credit Suisse (h/t Jon Haber) ... Pakistan turns 77 on its Republic Day ... Daniel Udell, co-founder of Wikitongues, which is building a public archive of every language as well as developing open source tools for language documentation ... Maria Garcia, researcher at FWD.us ... Adam Mowder, multiplatform editor at WashPost and a Politico alum ... Anila Alexander, product configuration analyst at Vitals and a Politico alum ... Natalie Rosen Marx ... Paul Neaville ... Sarah Foy (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) …... Ian Koski, North America comms director at ONE, is 37 ... Maya Lau, an LATimes reporter covering LA County Sheriff’s Dept. ... Caroline Kirkendoll ... Mike Franc, director of DC Programs and former policy director for Kevin McCarthy, is 6-0 ... Michael Strautmanis ... Joanna London, senior director in APCO Worldwide’s DC office ... AFL-CIO’s Drew Waxman (h/ts Anthony DeAngelo) ... Tim Bulakul of Bualuang Securities ... Brian Thomas is 54 ... Joshua Marcuse of Young Professionals in Foreign Policy and a senior policy advisor at DoD ... Rob Terra, managing director at Hamilton Place Strategies and McCain war room alum … Paul Guerin … Deloitte’s Ashley McCabe, a Menendez alum … Amelia Blackwood ... Nick Sinatra, now in real estate and a Bush WH 43 alum ... former foreign service officer Ruth Elizabeth Leonard ... Erika Mansourian, executive director of Elephant Family-USA ... Terry Neal, principal at Podesta Group and alum of Fannie Mae and WashPost ... Boeing’s Shaun Lara ... Noah Chestnut, product lead for the BuzzFeed News App (download: http://apple.co/2msSAcO) and a TNR alum, is 31 ... Peter Vallone Jr. … Hoong Yee Lee Krakauer … Lynn Krogh of The Casale Group ... Perez Hilton is 38 (h/t AP)

23 марта, 13:51

3 Top-Rated Columbia Mutual Funds to Add to Your Portfolio

Below we share with you three three-rated Columbia mutual funds. Each has earned a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy)

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22 марта, 21:13

США: индекс цен на дома FHFA в январе остался на прежнем уровне

По данным Федерального агентства по финансированию жилья (FHFA) индекс цен на дома в США, покупка которых осуществлялась с участием контролируемых государством ипотечных агентств Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac, в январе не изменился по сравнению с декабрем при ожидавшемся повышении на 0.4%.

14 января 2014, 08:56

Профицит бюджета США в декабре достиг рекорда

  Профицит бюджета США в декабре стал рекордным на фоне более высоких налогов на заработную плату, выплат со стороны Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac, а также снижения уровня безработицы. Доходы превысили расходы в прошлом месяце на $53,2 млрд по сравнению с дефицитом на уровне $1,19 млрд в декабре 2012 г., свидетельствуют данные Минфина США. Экономисты, опрошенные Bloomberg, ожидали показатель на уровне $44 млрд. В 2013 г. безработица в стране сократилась на 1,2 процентного пункта до 6,7%, и это самое сильное падение в годовом выражении с 1983 г. Укрепление экономики и увеличение налоговых поступлений позволили сократить дефицит страны в прошлом финансовом году, закончившемся 30 сентября, более чем наполовину: до $680,3 млрд по сравнению с рекордным показателем в $1,42 трлн в 2009 г. "Мы продолжаем видеть улучшение экономических условий, которое в настоящее время отражено в сокращении бюджетного дефицита", - отметил экономист Wells Fargo Securities LLC Майкл Браун. Доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций снизилась до 2,83%, приблизившись к самому низкому уровню за месяц.  Доходы бюджета составили $283,2 млрд в прошлом месяце по сравнению с $269,5 млрд в декабре 2012 г. Расходы составил $230 млрд по сравнению с $270,7 млрд в прошлом году. В течение первых трех месяцев текущего финансового года дефицит составил $176,3 млрд, тогда как с октября по декабрь 2012 г. показатель составлял $293,3 млрд. Платежи в казну от Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac выросли за год примерно на $34 млрд.

10 мая 2013, 06:16

Про MBS и ипотечные кредиты

Мы совсем как то эту тему забросили, а зря. Все же на этот рынок много завязано. О каких суммах идет речь? Объем ипотечных кредитов (для жилой недвижимости, коммерческой, сельскохозяйственной) составляет 13.1 трлн долл на конец 2012 года. Из этих 13.1 трлн более 9.4 трлн записано на домохозяйства. Под эти кредиты выпускали тоннами всякого MBS’осного шлака, процесс полностью остановился в 2008 году. Сейчас совокупный объем MBS составляет 7.54 трлн, т.е. почти 58% всех ипотечных кредитов было секьюритизировано. На пике зверства было под 70%. Из 7.54 трлн около 80% эмитировано Government-sponsored enterprises (GSE) всякие там fannie mae и freddie mac, остальное остальное на частные структуры. Причем стоит обратить внимание на то, что в 2009 году более 4.4 трлн дефолтных бумаг (!) было изъято из частных структур в пользу государственных. Не будь этого, то все рухнуло. Программа TARP, кредитование ФРС и QE здесь не учитываются.Как это было...Чтобы оценить тенденции и масштабы, то лучше всего на графике.Как видно, процесс сокращения ипотечных кредитов продолжается. Низкие процентные ставки не помогают, кредиты не берут. А выкуп MBS не помогает тем более, т.к. сам процесс выкупа не имеет ни малейшего отношения к способностям и желаниям заемщиков получать кредит. Все, к чему имеет отношение ФРС - это стимуляция дальнейшей активности бангстеров по секьюритизации ипотечных кредитов, но если нет роста кредитов, то и чисто теоретически не может быть никакого роста активности в MBS. Поэтому проблема не в предложении кредитов, т.е не в банках, а в спросе (заемщиках). Нет спроса на кредиты, а банки бы рады опять шарманку запустить.Максимум, что может получиться из этой безумной затеи ФРС - так это провоцирование отрыва башни у бангстеров . С тем, чтобы условия получения займов были столь простыми, что получить займ мог бы любой, кто имеет в активах хотя бы один чупа чупс и половину недопитой банки коки. Возврат к тому, от чего пришли. Ничего этих людей не исправит.Кто держит весь этот мусор?Разумеется больше всех у ФРС – 1 трлн на конец 2012 и 1.15 трлн в настоящий момент. Ни одна структура единолично столько не держит. Это 15% рынка на 2012, к концу 2013 будет держать все 20% рынка. Тем самым это означает, что ценообразование на этом рынке под полным контролем ФРС и дилеров. Проще говоря, вторичного рынка больше не существует.Почти 4.5 трлн у финансовых структур (1.6 трлн коммерческие банки, 350 млрд ипотечные трасты, 347 млрд страховые фонды, 223 млрд пенсионные фонды, 170 млрд у брокеров и так далее).Частный сектор (домохозяйства и корпорации) сократили вложения почти в ноль. Причем домохозяйства по каким то загадочным причинам начали скупать MBS тогда, когда они наиболее активно падали в цене. На тот момент (2007-2008) они были самым крупным покупателем на рынке, нарастив всего за 1.5 года объем MBS на 500 млрд до 1.02 трлн, а потом в период с 2009 по 2010 все продали, когда ФРС запустил QE1Я раньше вам говорил, но повторю. Эта операция была похожа на хорошо спланированный инсайд. Группа лиц инсайдеров и аффилированных лиц с ФРС примерно в конце 2007-середине 2008 знала, что будет неизбежный выкуп MBS со стороны ФРС для поддержания рынка и примерно тогда готовился план по банкротству Лемана. Учитывая, что бумаги продавались с дисконтом, то предположительно через частные счета и некоммерческие организации был проведен выкуп на 300-400 млрд бумаг, которые по рыночной цене не стоили и половину от номинала. А потом продавали по номиналу ФРС, заработав сотни процентов чистой прибыли. Также поступали и дилеры, но в отличие от юридических лиц, физиков и НКО никто проверять не будет, т.к. об этом никто даже не догадывается. Т.е. более, чем вероятно, что на инсайде смогли отмыть через мошеннические схемы более 150 млрд чистой прибыли.Основные выводы1. Роста кредитования нет.2. Эмиссии MBS нет, т.к. нет роста кредитования.3. Рынок MBS под полным контролем ФРС и дилеров. Еще никогда в истории одна структура не держала такую долю рынка. 15% на 2012 и 20% на конец 2013. Вторичного рынка больше не существует в свободном формате. Цены регулируются ФРС.4. ФРС частная лавочка бангстеров и инсайдеров, которая действует прежде всего в интересах бангстеров и инсайдеров.5. По множеству косвенных и прямых признаков, инсайд о вероятном запуске QE1 был еще в начале 2008 года. Много подозрительных теневых операций по переброски средств в НКО. Откуда у НКО пол триллиона баксов, которые выкупали это говно в момент острой паники и краха. По моим оценка отмыли не менее 150 млрд чистой прибыли.6. Когда MBS в объеме не увеличиваются, а ФРС выкупает под 40 млрд в месяц + когда ФРС монетизирует гос.долг США, то избыточная ликвидность абсорбируется на рынке акций. Реципиентом являются дилеры – те, кто работает с ФРС и получает ликвидность от ФРС. НЕ нужно питать иллюзий, что рост фондового рынка чем то фундаментально обоснован. Очередная гнусная операция по перекачки ликвидности и поддержанию рентабельности фин.сектора в условиях, когда активность клиентов спала на рекордно низкий уровень. Не будет QE = не будет роста рынка.7. Единственной хорошей новостью является то, что этот бардак выходит на финишную прямую. Когда они сосредоточили в руках почти всю возможную власть и активы, то прорыв этого чуда-юда неизбежен. Учитывая то, насколько все ухудшилось за последний год, то ждать осталось не так и долго. Еще никогда контроль над активыми не был столь тотальным и всеобъемлющим.Более детальная таблица держателей MBS

24 января 2013, 18:39

По следам монетарного безумия

Небольшая предыстория, чтобы понять, откуда растут ноги у монетарного безумия. Это важно понимать в условиях, когда система на полном ходу несется под откос.  Все началось задолго до того, как общественностью принято считать началом острой фазы кризиса. Первые серьезные проблемы появились в еще 2007 году, а не осенью 2008.Но сначала, что такое MBS? Объясню предельно кратко. Это структурированная облигация с определенным номиналом и процентными платежами, покупаемая инвесторами по образу и подобию обычных облигаций с небольшими отличиями. Кто является эмитентом? Либо квазигосударственные структуры (Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac), либо инвестиционные фонды. На какой основе происходит эмиссия?Ипотечные кредиты населения объединяются в пул residential mortgage-backed security (RMBS)Коммерческие ипотечные кредиты объединяются в пул commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS).Нарисовал схематично в общих чертах принцип работыДалее происходит секьюритизация кредитов и градация по качеству кредитов с присвоением соответствующего рейтинга. Самый высокий рейтинг соответствует якобы самым надежным кредитам и по ним наименьшие ставки. Соответственно наоборот с наименее надежными –сабпрайм кредитами.После этого происходит эмиссия MBS и продажа инвесторам. Не буду заостряться на ценообразовании, т.к. это весьма обширная тема, а скажу суть. Процентные ставки по MBS всегда ниже, чем процентные ставки по кредитам, образующих MBS. Так, например, если пул кредитов на 1 млрд долларов со средневзвешенной ставкой в 6%, то облигация будет точно ниже 6% годовых. Если инвесторы не готовы покупать по 6%, а просят 7%, то эмиссия облигации теряет всякий смысл.Отсюда вытекает две фундаментальные уязвимости.Первое. В отличие от стандартных облигаций, MBS крайне серьезно завязаны на денежном потоке, который образуется процентными платежами по кредитам, поэтому процентные ставки по MBS не могут быть выше процентных ставок по кредитам.Второе. В действительности, инвесторы не могут претендовать ни на какие залоги, поэтому формально облигация не имеет реального обеспечения, т.к. если происходит дефолт заемщиков и реализация их недвижимости на рынке, то это в самом лучшем случае может компенсировать лишь часть пула. Допустим, в пуле кредитов 10% оказались дефолтными и лишь 7% удалось реализовать, да еще с дисконтом в 20% из-за падение цен на недвижимость. Эмитент облигации в таких условиях не может в полной мере выполнить своих обязательств и инвесторы несут убытки, либо при исполнении обязательств эмитент понесет убытки пропорционально количеству дефолтных заемщиков.Но это в лучшем случае.В реальности процедура взыскания усложнена, т.к. из-за иерархической секьюритизации сложно доказать, кто фактически является собственников кредита. Вспомните, Foreclosure-gate в 2010 году, когда банки не могли доказать принадлежность кредита, что усложняло процедуру взыскания.Это потоки денег между контрагентами.Т.е. схема такая. Заемщик идет в банк за кредитом, получает деньги и покупает недвижимость. Коммерческий банк продает пул кредитов инвестфондам, как правило, с небольшим дисконтом, и инвестбанк получает пул кредитов и процентные платежи по нему от коммерческого банка. Далее инвестбанк структурирует кредиты, производит градацию по качеству и выпускает MBS. Инвесторы платят инвестбанку деньги за MBS, а от банка-эмитента получают процентные платежи и деньги при полном или частичном погашении облигации.Собственно, мотивация инвестбанков в покупке пула ипотечных кредитов заключается в том, чтобы заработать деньги на разнице между процентной ставкой по эмитированной облигации и процентными ставками по ипотечным кредитам.Коммерческие банки заинтересованы в перераспределении ответственности и снятию рисков невозврата.Инвесторы заинтересованы в получении доходов от MBS. Раньше деньги по MBS исправно платились,Все были заинтересованы в расширении этого рынка, но …Коллапс ипотечного пузыря с 2007 года вызвал обесценение mortgage-backed security и инвесторы стали просить премию за ипотечные пулы. Иными словами, эмиссия этого чуда-юда проходила по существенно более высоким ставкам.Все крупнейшие банки были достаточно сильно представлены в MBS, как со стороны инвесторов, так и со стороны эмитентов.Теперь рассмотрим этот процесс внимательно со стороны эмитента MBS. В активах у них ипотечные пулы, в пассивах обязательства по MBS.Начинается дефолт заемщиков (сужается денежный поток по выплате кредитов), падает цена не недвижимость, которая является залогом в пуле кредитов. Целые кластеры обесцениваются, но инвестбанк вынужден выполнять свои обязательства перед инвесторами.Допустим, к погашению подходит 10 млрд MBS. Раньше на каждые 10 млрд погашений, банки могли размещать по 30-50 млрд нового выпуска, тем самым происходил, как процесс рефинансирования, так и процесс расширения. А что случилось в 2007-2008?Эмиссия упала в ноль. Погашать надо, а рефинансировать не получается. Все, конец. Без ФРС теперь никуда.Во-первых: инвесторы начали просить премию и более высокие процентные ставки, тем самым многие выпуски теряли смысл при отсутствии рентабельности.Во-вторых: инвесторы значительно сократили свои вложения в этот рынок из-за опасения дефолтов после коллапса ипотечного пузыря и смены настроений. Т.е. раньше рефинансировали легко 10 млрд, а теперь максимум готовы купить 2-3 млрд.Так вот, банку нужно погасить 10 млрд, а купить в новой эмиссии готовы лишь на 2 млрд. Образуется дефицит ликвидности на 8 млрд. Что делать? Фондироваться на межбанке, просить деньги у ФРС, либо реализовывать свои активы на рынке.Фондироваться на межбанке не получалось, т.к. в начале был дефицит ликвидности, когда у других банков были теже самые проблемы и им тоже нужны были деньги. А потом возник кризис доверия, когда банки не могли открывать кредитные линии по причине, что не были уверены в платежеспособности контрагента.Реализовывать активы на рынке приходилось с дисконтном в десятки процентов, т.к. одновременно на продажу ринулись все, тем самым активы посыпались. В 4 квартале 2007 году произошли первые многомиллиардные списание у крупных банков. Собственно тогда стало окончательно понятно, что система пошла в разнос.Оставалось звонить ФРС.Звонки в ФРС стали происходит в аварийном режиме на постоянной основе с матерными выкриками : «Бен, что за ебанистика творится на рынке? Мы не может остановить падение MBS, у нас нет денег на поддержание штанов, мы банкроты»Разработка экстренных программ началась в 4 квартале 2007 года, запуск первых состоялся в декабре. Одна из первых программ – это Term Auction Facility (TAF) – временные аукционы для поддержания ликвидности в финансовой системе. Эта программа предоставляет банкам кредиты на 28 или 84 дня на тот случай, если кредитование через дисконтное окно ФРС по каким либо причинам не доступно, либо не востребовано банками.И понеслась.Март 2008. ЗапускTerm Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) программа, призванная увеличить показатели ликвидности непосредственно для первичных дилеров. Кредиты сроком на 1 месяц, обеспеченные залогами. Старт был в марте 2008, окончание действия 1 февраля 2010. Процентная ставка определяется по рыночной стоимости казначейских одномесячных векселей.Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) Это овернайт кредиты исключительно для первичных дилеров с целью стабилизации рынка РЕПО и устранения кассовых разрывов при отсутствии возможности фондироваться на необходимую сумму из других источников. Теоретически овернайт кредиты могут пролонгироваться бесконечно в формате действий данной программы. Ставка фиксированная и определяется ФРБ Нью Йорка. Лимиты программы формально безграничны, но фактически определяются уровнем залогов у первичных дилеров.Но ничего из того не помогло, исправить ситуацию не получилось. Обесценение MBS происходило дальше.Банки убивало то, что эмиссия MBS сжалось почти в ноль, а погашать MBS надо был в огромных количествах. Следовательно, дефицит ликвидности стал просто запредельным. Плюс сжатия денежного потока + падение цен на недвижимость и самого залога.В середине 2008 стало окончательно понятно, что должен быть крупный покупатель на рынке MBS, чтобы стабилизировать обесценение. Вариантов не оставалось – это только ФРС.Сейчас в 2013 это кажется странным, но тогда монетарное блядство и разврат были далеко не так запущены, как сейчас. Опыта QE не было. Было просто дикостью, что ФРС будет скупать активы на открытом рынке, ни одному в голову такое прийти не могло. В середине 2008 они придумали гениальный план, суть которого заключалась в следующем, что раз просто так начать QE не получится, то необходимо устроить панику и условия тотального страха, чтобы законодательно оправдать помощь. Повторюсь, в 2008 году банкиры были очень запуганными, это сейчас они обнаглели в конец и делают, что хотят. Тогда еще были рамки приличия. Как устроить панику? Обанкротить банк? Какой банк? Достаточно крупный, чтобы вызвать глобальную панику, но недостаточно крупный, чтобы привести к параличу банковской системы.Выбор был невелик: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch и … Lehman Brothers. Не будем заостряться, почему это был Lehman Brothers, но так получилось, что козлом отпущения должен был стать именно он.Существует миф, что якобы виной кризиса стал Lehman Brothers. Это не так. В оправдание этого банка скажу, что вся банковская система была на тот момент банкротом, т.к. экспозиция по структурированным продуктам была запредельная, и этот рынок был парализован. Сказать, что финансовый кризис спровоцировал LB – это расписаться под собственной профнепригодностью.Lehman Brothers – это не более, чем предлог для начала экстренных спасительны мер, это был инструмент для спасения всей банковской системы, т.к. необходимо было начать программы TARP и выкуп MBS. Банкротство Lehman Brothers шло в полном соответствии с планом Казначейства и ФРС по спасению банковской системы. Банкротство Lehman Brothers было спланированным и подготавливалось с весны 2008, когда стало понятно, что без выкупа не обойтись. Если бы не начали выкуп, то через несколько дней навернулся бы другие инвестбанки, там были дичайшие кассовые разрывы.Ниже задолженность банков перед ФРС по кредитам. Отмечу, что Citi и Bank of America в тот момент были в более плачевном положении, чем Lehman Brothers.На графике черной линией консодированная задолженность Леман перед ФРС по кредитным линиям.Видно, что она на уровне других банков, а пиковая задолженность в пару раз меньше, чем у конкурентов, что как бы намекает на то, что дела у других банков мягко говоря шли еще хуже.Потом Генри Полсон говорил, что они обанкротили Леман по причине, что не хотели тратить деньги налогоплательщиков? Брехня и вранье.Через пару дней они начали заливать в систему триллионы, что видно нижеЗдесь я провел клиринг всех операций кредитования и посчитал кумулятивную экспозицию по всем программам.Расшифровка программ. Про три программы расcказал выше. Остальные:Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) – программа обеспечивает поддержку ликвидности для американских эмитентов корпоративных облигаций через прямой выкуп трехмесячных облигаций (обеспеченных и необеспеченных активами) по специально созданным лимитам. Операции проводились до полного погашения обязательств. Ставки кредитования для необеспеченных бумаг OIS + 300 базисных пункта, а для обеспеченных OIS + 100 базисных пунктаTerm Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) – программа, призванная увеличить показатели ликвидности непосредственно для первичных дилеров. Кредиты сроком на 1 месяц, обеспеченные залогами.Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF) – это программа экстренного кредитования фондов денежного рынка под залог коммерческих бумаг, обеспеченных активами. Процентная ставка фиксированная и устанавливается ФРБ Нью Йорка на день выдачи (Primary Credit rate). Лимит кредитования устанавливается в зависимости от предоставленных залогов. Срок кредитования от нескольких дней до нескольких месяцев.На графике не отражены своп линии и Maiden Lane for Bear Stearns, American International Group – целый ряд программ поддержки для Bear Stearns и AIG. В совокупности на пике без учета своп линии впрыск ликвидности доходил до 1.25 трлн долларов.В принципе, надо понимать, что для ФРС не было никакой проблемой спасти Леман. Речь шла о разрыве в 15 млрд баксов. Они не дали 15, чтобы потом влить 1.5 трлн. Чувствуйте разницу? Дело в том, что он вполне мог спасти по образу и подобию Bear Stearns, когда дал гарантии по части обязательств банка. Но на Леман закрыли лимиты тогда, как банки, так и ФРС. Программы кредитования проходили достаточно мутно. т.к. в залог формально давали активы, а по факту мусор, т.к. оценить стоимость было сложно и тупо оценивали все по номиналу.Так вот, откуда объем в 1.25 трлн у QE1? Почему не 600 млрд или 1 трлн? 1.25 трлн = пику кредитования. Т.е. QE1 замещал кредит на чистый впрыск ликвидности. Те. Банки погашали кредиты и одновременно получали деньги через QE1.Почему выкуп MBS, а не трежерис? Понятно из статьи.QE2? Что это? Экспериментальная программа, чтобы проверить обратную реакцию системы. Чистый вандализм и произвол. Они хотели проверить, приведет ли программа к негативным последствиям на валютном и долговом рынке? Не привела, все осталось в порядке и запустили QE3 в уже безлимитном форматеПрограмма QE3. Основная цель – монетизация гос.долга и обеспечение рентабельности бангстеров в условиях, когда реальный сектор высушен, когда невозможно генерировать прибыль. К заявленному спасению экономики программа не имеет никакого отношения. Это очередное прикрытие банкиров.Посмотрите, насколько херовые результаты по доходам инвестбанков.Конъюнктура такая, что делать деньги стало практически невозможно. Разумеется, опять приходит на помощь ФРС уже с QE3 ))Вероятно, QE3 - это последнее, что сделает ФРС. Система в критическом состоянии находится. Обратные связи полностью деградировали. Сейчас производят интервенции на рынке акций в аварийном режиме, но не знаю, поможет ли? Думаю, что нет. По совокупности факторов, мировая экономика находится в более худшем состоянии, чем в 2009 году. Основная беда, что все идет в холостую, в пустоту. Рентабельность приращенного гос.долга близка к нулю

25 сентября 2012, 13:50

ФРС может расширить список выкупаемых активов

Федеральная резервная система может увеличить объемы и расширить список активов, выкупаемых в рамках проведения третей программы количественного смягчения. Об этом заявил президент Федерального резервного банка Сан-Франциско Джон Уильямс.Такие действия возможны в ответ на слабую реакцию экономики США на текущий формат стимулирования экономики."В отличие от наших прошлых программ по выкупу активов у этой нет заранее определенной даты завершения. Вместо этого она напрямую привязана к тому, что происходит с экономикой. Мы можем даже расширить наши покупки, с тем чтобы включить в них другие активы", - заявил Уильямс.Уильямс также отметил, что хоть и согласно мандату ФРС список бумаг, который может быть на балансе регулятора, ограничен, однако все еще есть возможность выкупа казначейских облигаций всех сроков обращения, долговых обязательств ипотечных агентств Freddie Mac и Fannie Mae.Помимо этого, Уильямс также ожидает продления сроков программы "Твист". "Я ожидаю, что мы продолжим эту программу в 2013 году, и я также думаю, что существуют сильные предпосылки для увеличения объемов или продолжения выкупа других активов в 2013 году, включая Treasuries с более длительными сроками обращения", - отметил Уильямс.По прогнозам представителя регулятора, ФРС удастся добиться снижения безработицы до 7,25% уже в 2014 г., поэтому программа выкупа активов будет завершена до конца 2014 г.