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Выбор редакции
21 октября, 00:10

BRIEF-Fedex Office and eBay team up to help consumers sell items online, make money

* Fedex office and eBay have teamed up to bring ebay valet drop-off program to more than 1,600 fedex office retail stores Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage: [EBAY.O FDX.N]

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18 октября, 15:20

Олланд ждет наплыв инвестиций во Францию после Brexit

По мнению французского президента, его страна станет порталом на единый рынок Европы.

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17 октября, 17:32

IPO ZTO Express: огромная капитализация $12,07-13,53 млрд, при цене $16,5-$18,5, и не менее крупный

Наши клиенты интересуются IPO ZTO Express (Nyse: ZTO). Огромная капитализация $12,07-13,53 млрд, при цене $16,5-$18,5, и не менее крупный free-float 9,9%. Годовая выручка в июне достигала $1,18 млрд. Компания прибыльная: EBITDA - $369,40 млн, EBITDAR примерно $386,5 млн, чистая прибыль - $236,8 млн. За последние полгода годовая EBITDA выросла на 27%, за 2015 год - на 186%, при этом компания не даёт прогноза по росту этого показателя. Тем не менее в проспекте обращается внимание на рост числа посылок (CAGR) на 80% с 2011 по 2015 годы. Предлагаемая стоимость предприятия на IPO $14,25 млрд. Это в 12,1 раза больше выручки, в 38,6 раза больше EBITDA (и в 36,9 раза больше EBITDAR), а капитализация в 54 раза выше чистой прибыли. У компании три публично торгуемых аналога: FedEx (FDX), UPS, Deutsche Post. Стоимость предприят

Выбор редакции
17 октября, 14:25

IPO ZTO Express: огромная капитализация $12,07-13,53 млрд, при цене $16,5-$18,5, и не менее крупный

Наши клиенты интересуются IPO ZTO Express (Nyse: ZTO). Огромная капитализация $12,07-13,53 млрд, при цене $16,5-$18,5, и не менее крупный free-float 9,9%. Годовая выручка в июне достигала $1,18 млрд. Компания прибыльная: EBITDA - $369,40 млн, EBITDAR примерно $386,5 млн, чистая прибыль - $236,8 млн. За последние полгода годовая EBITDA выросла на 27%, за 2015 год - на 186%, при этом компания не даёт прогноза по росту этого показателя. Тем не менее в проспекте обращается внимание на рост числа посылок (CAGR) на 80% с 2011 по 2015 годы. Предлагаемая стоимость предприятия на IPO $14,25 млрд. Это в 12,1 раза больше выручки, в 38,6 раза больше EBITDA (и в 36,9 раза больше EBITDAR), а капитализация в 54 раза выше чистой прибыли. У компании три публично торгуемых аналога: FedEx (FDX), UPS, Deutsche Post. Стоимость предприят

13 октября, 21:21

Virtual Reality and Forklift Training Fills Online Ordering Gap

What use to take five to seven business days when ordering online now takes just a mere few hours for the package to land at the front door after hitting the "buy" button. So, what has changed and what is going on behind the scenes? Plenty. Sellers, both online only and retailers, are frantically building new warehouses closer to their consumers to beat the competition to the door. For the past couple of years, approximately 2013 to 2015, prime rents for warehouses are upwards of 9.9 percent across the U.S. and up and even more in urban areas. Online buying makes for about 20 percent of present day purchasing, according to Eric Frankel, an analyst at Green Street Advisors. Frankel says that retail sales had been a bit slower than in previous economic expansions, but demand for warehouse space close to major population centers is extremely hot. The commodity for online sales startup competition is fierce. Shippers, such as FedEx, UPS and traditional retailers like Macy's, want to join in the world of same-day delivery. Much of the warehouse craze is a reaction to a single player: Amazon.com. Amazon has built a massive network of distribution centers as the muscle behind its re-education of the American consumer. Online shoppers are now used to fast delivery times and some retailers are building online shipping directly from brick and mortar stores as well as a warehouse. High demand for forklift operators What does all this growth mean to the retailers besides buildings? The need for more forklift operators. Driving a forklift is not a simple job. It requires unique skills, unlike other warehouse jobs. Pick, pack and ship operations rely largely on workers at conveyor belts pulling items to pack basically utilizing the mechanical equipment. Online job site Careerbuilder.com shows 1,515 ads for forklift operators across U.S. compared to 1,748 jobs for all warehouse workers that includes material handlers, dock workers, package handlers, general production, and picker, just to name a few. According to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), forklift operator careers are expected to grow by more than 12 percent by 2020. In addition to the needs for forklift operators in the U.S., there is an increasing growth for forklift operators overseas and beyond the online shopping world. Countries such as Russia and China spend billions on repairing energy pipelines that require forklift operators to move and organize pipeline components. The immense transportation routes from China need forklift operators to move products from ships and factories to warehouses. There is a strong need for forklift drivers to move products from a warehouse to trucks for transport to domestic and foreign markets. Not only does the U.S. have a need for forklift operators, so do other countries such as India, Brazil, and Canada. New forklift training options The operation of a forklift can bring either much-needed supply chain support or a disaster for the product and operator. Proper training is crucial to avoid what could be a serious injury. Chip Newhart, the safety manager at Baltimore Forest Products Terminals, recalls in an interview in Inbound Logistics, that a forklift operator ran into a building support column. As he was driving towards a cargo shipment, he couldn't see around the load which was large bales of wood pulp. But that is not the reason he hit it. As it turned out, a manager at the company parked his car mistakenly in the location the forklift driver usually took, so he had to use an alternate route and didn't realize that a column was in the way. Meeting the urgency for forklift operator training To fill the demand for forklift operator jobs, newer training technologies such as using virtual reality (VR) software are being used. U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) recognizes the VR training and certification as a viable option to meet the training demands in the market. The training can be done at work or at home on a desktop, laptop, mobile phone or tablet as long as the student has an Internet connection. To get forklift operators ready for warehouse work requires several skills beyond pushing the "on" button. OSHA requirements include: • Forklift workers should not operate a forklift unless or until they have been trained and licensed. • All comprehensive written and safety programs have been completed. • Training must address issues that affect the stability of a forklift. • Stand-up forklift operators must hold on firmly, and lean away from the point of impact using rear-entry access. • All operator restraints must be used on sit-down forklifts. • All lift truck operators must do a full safety inspection of their vehicle prior to starting work. Newer forklift technology The days of forklifts operating in dirty warehouses are long gone. Technology has transformed the old forklift with barcode scanners and labels on packages, shipping pallets that tell shippers and receivers exactly what's in that bundle of freight as soon as it hits the loading dock. Forklifts and trucks are now equipped with Radio-Frequency Identification (RFID) tags. RFID technology is essential to warehouse operations. Radio waves can locate, read and gather information stored on a tag printed on an object. The tag can be read from several feet away using a scanner. The information is downloaded to a database, logged for storage and recorded using electronic data interchange (EDI) technology. The data-gathering process sends the information to distribution centers and is then sent throughout all segments of the supply chain. There are a lot of moving parts in the shipping and transporting process to keep the supply chain going. In order to load and offload cargo from the plant to distributors and then from distributors to consumers takes fully trained warehouse operation personnel. Logistics is critical to keep the supply chain process going. To stay up with the demand and warehouse technology at all levels, in particular, the forklift operation, is essential. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

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07 октября, 23:02

Strangely Captivating Traffic Jam Snarls White House Roadways

It started with the Budget truck. A little before 2:00 p.m. on Friday, a 16-foot rental truck double-parked on the 1700 block of G Street in northwest Washington, just a few hundred feet from the White House. Two men wearing blue FedEx uniforms exited the cab, walked to the back of the vehicle and pulled a dolly from the truck bed. No one knew it at the time, but The Great G Street Traffic Jam of 2016 had begun. Watch The Huffington Post’s complete, exclusive coverage of this strangely captivating event below: function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); Traffic is tightly regulated around the White House for security reasons. Cab drivers are prohibited from dropping off passengers too close to the presidential residence. Double-parking is technically a no-no, but the practice remains a necessity for deliveries to the various lobbying offices, regulatory agencies and lunch spots in the area. But like Icarus daring the sun, the Budget Truck was courting catastrophe. It had narrowed G Street just a few feet too far. When a Reston Limousine bus followed up behind, there was simply no room to get through. Car after car slowed to a stop. And waited. And waited. And waited. The vehicles backed up a full block to 17th Street, wrapping around to Pennsylvania Avenue. Frustrated motorists left their cars, lit cigarettes and jeered at the Budget truck. But the orange, blue and white monstrosity would not move.  In the nation’s capital, it’s never easy to pass a Budget. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

07 октября, 18:00

A Historic Shift in How You Spend Money

Eventually, we will be a cashless society. Why? We like convenience.

07 октября, 03:31

The Accelerating Opioid Crisis, And A Glaring Vulnerability

In the arc of a lifetime, I've witnessed the rising tides of many drug epidemics, beginning in the 1960s. Sadly, none have accelerated as quickly as the latest opioid addiction epidemic, which seems to be sweeping the nation and leaving no one untouched. In fact, you can't read the news without seeing one disturbing example after another. In my home state of Virginia, for example, the Secretary for Health and Human Services recently said the crisis is so widespread and so fast-growing that punishment alone cannot address the problem, and that more people in Virginia die from opioid overdose than from car crashes and gun violence combined. In Ohio, the Cuyahoga County Medical Examiner, Dr. Thomas Gilson, recently said that fentanyl and heroin had already killed 300 people this year and the number of fatalities are likely to be double from 2015. In Wisconsin, the Department of Health Services issued an advisory calling opioid addiction a public health crisis. With more than 600 opioid-related deaths in 2015, the number of people dying from overdoses in Wisconsin now exceeds those dying in car crashes or from breast cancer, colon cancer, HIV, suicide or shootings, the advisory said. And a recent video from Massachusetts of a young woman overdosed on the floor of a store went viral, grimly showing her two-year-old daughter crying and calling for her mom to wake up. In the past, it seemed like these waves of drug abuse were distant, something that happened elsewhere, in poor neighborhoods or depressed rural areas. But today, this epidemic seems to be everywhere and sparing no one, regardless of geography or demography. Almost a decade ago, a friend of our son Jack died of a fentanyl (synthetic opioid) overdose; fast-forward to today, and as an addiction counselor in New Haven, Connecticut, Jack's caseload is increasingly comprised of young people addicted to opioids. Like other drug epidemics, the solutions are complex and multiple parties play a role. In the realm of prevention, physicians have begun to prescribe opioid painkillers more sparingly, though we need a much quicker change in protocols for managing pain. Medical researchers are studying new ways to do that. Data analytics - "big data" - is already helping public health officials understand the crisis, for example by producing maps that track opiate prescriptions, hospitalizations for overdoses, and deaths; and by using masses of data predictively, to anticipate and prepare for cases in the near future. Information technology may also be useful for immediate intervention during overdose. In September, the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) announced a new competition to develop a smartphone app to connect opioid users who are overdosing with nearby clinics that have supplies of the prescription drug naloxone, the antidote for an opioid overdose. Ultimately, all of us need to understand and support a change of mindset, away from criminal measures and toward recognition that opioid and other abusers are sick and need treatment. But as someone who has spent a lifetime working in the safety- and security-sensitive airline industry, as well as studying mobility and logistics, I'm especially interested in two linked questions "how does all this bad stuff get from producer to consumer?" and "what can we do to interrupt the flow?" Although synthetic opioids are relatively easy to make here in the U.S., with far less risk than building an explosion-prone methamphetamine lab, foreign producers are major suppliers of opioids. Foreign labs and mules have gotten creative with transport - drones are increasingly popular for low-weight contraband, and a homemade bazooka was recently found across the border from Arizona. Hiding in plain sight is the U.S.Postal Service, which does not adequately screen the approximately 340 million packages that annually enter our country from abroad for dangerous and illegal contents. This lapse in security exposes Americans to additional risk from opioids and other illegal drugs. The Trade Act of 2002 mandated that U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CPB) receive advance information (electronically, in a document commonly called a manifest) on all packages entering the nation. FedEx, UPS, and cargo-carrying passenger airlines quickly complied. But the government's own carrier, the USPS, never adopted regulations for screening practices, partly because of concerns about the compliance of foreign postal services. So the Chinese fentanyl lab can simply mail their dangerous stuff and your smiling letter carrier will put it in your neighbor's mailbox - or maybe yours, for your teenagers to intercept before you get home from work. Drug Enforcement Administration spokesman Russ Baer recently said that "[Fetnanyl and fentanyl-related compounds], along with a growing cornucopia of illicit synthetics, are largely being manufactured in China and smuggled into the United States both over land and through the U.S. Postal Service." When I recently spoke with our son, the addiction counselor, about this security issue, he responded, "I'm saddened but not especially surprised. Federal and state governments have not been smart in dealing with waves of drug epidemics. The War on Drugs failed massively, and now suppliers can send boxes of opioids without fear that they will be detected. By failing to screen, we all become partly responsible for addiction across the United States." I've always been an optimist, and there are signs that we're waking up. One came last month when Congressman Pat Tiberi (R-Ohio) and Congressman Richard E. Neal (D-Massachusetts) introduced the Synthetics Trafficking & Overdose Prevention (STOP) Act, a measure to address this security screening loophole by requiring the USPS to provide advance electronic information about package shipments to U.S. Customs and Border Protection and for other purposes. A week earlier, Senators Rob Portman of Ohio, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire introduced the STOP Act in the Senate. It's a welcome first step, but the Obama Administration has a role to play here, too. And it's past time our government takes action and stops the flood of opioids barreling into our country. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

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05 октября, 15:58

Is your business ready for the holidays?

If you make the vast majority of your revenue over the holiday season...it game time. Now is the time to be thinking about a few top tasks to make sure you are ready for a rush of customer and have backups resources for everything. Proper planning prevents poor performance. You should be considering things like what you need to stock up on to fill your holiday orders. You also want to organize your marketing plans now. How much budget will you set aside for Google Adwords, Instagram and Facebook ad campaigns. If you are a strictly local business, do you have direct mail offer ready to print. There's also regional cables ads, radio remotes or getting your invites ready to host an open house. if Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, or the day after Christmas are peek business times here are a few things that you'll need to have in place to make your cash register sing this holiday seasons. Talk With Your Vendors: Start communicating with your manufacturers and distributor partners about your holiday plan. Make sure you have a back-up for your main supplier in case they are backed up with other customers. Manufacturers may hire temporary help too for the holidays, so if you have a product that requires a high-level of detail, you may want to order product early. Order Inventory Early: Inventory shortages are real issue at holiday time. Look at what your sales were last holiday season to determine what items you need to have in place. Order your packaging, branded shipping boxes and raw materials in advance. Be sure to order extra too. You could be one media mention away from completely being sold out, but that's a good problem to have. Contact Your Creditcard Processor: If your sales boom over the holidays, you need to make sure that your credit card processor provides a daily limit high enough to process all of the transactions. You might just be fortunate enough to be selling the hot Christmas toy which will generate huge sales, and could shut down your shopping cart. Line Up Your Seasonal Workers: If you hire for seasonal help, its time to contact those people to plan to bring on. You want to have everyone you need in advance, even your interns. Develop FAQs for phone inquiries, and use step-by-step guides with pictures so that your brand is not damaged by any of your temporary worker. Anyone can stuff a box, so don't be afraid to enlist your family, neighborhood kids, and friends to help get you through the holidays. But do yourself a favor, train them properly before the rush hits. Layout Packaging Options Now: If your packaging is signature to your brand, set up everything that you can in advance so that you "WoW" the customers with their holiday orders. Get as much ready ahead of time, before the orders start coming. You want to protect your brand so your quality does not suffer in the holiday rush. Determine End of YEAR Discounts: Figure out now what specials you want push for this holiday season. These are major shopping holidays. You might want to develop special product bundles just for those days, or offer special pricing on your biggest selling items or volume discounts as well. Develop Your Holiday Shipping Policy: You can offer free shipping which is great marketing idea as shipping costs are one of the top reasons customers abandon shopping carts. This only works if you can find a way to absorb the cost of shipping in your product costs. You could offer (free shipping from Black Friday through Christmas). Offer a flat rate on shipping for purchases of two or more items. You need to make sure you know the average shipping cost of packages at different weights, so that you don't lose your shirt with this. You can also do a direct pass through on shipping. In other words, you can charge what you're charged: This is an expensive strategy, but you won't lose too much on shipping. Get Shipping Options in Place: Know when you need to have your items ready to ship so they arrive before Christmas. Figure out your best shipping options. Depending on the volume you ship, you should contact your account rep to see if there are any discounts being offered for the holidays. If you belong to a trade organization or association, you may qualify for a discount with express shippers such as FedEx. You can also set up a USPS click-and-ship account so that they will pick up orders from your home or office. You also want to automate as much about your shipping process as possible. Look at options such as Shipstation.com so that you can simplify shipping labels. The holiday shopping season, is serious business no matter what you sell. It's time to put something on sale in your business, so that you'll be set for the new year sitting on a pile of cash. Make your holidays merry and bright. Planning ahead along with smart marketing will deliver amazing results for your holiday sales. How are you preparing for your holiday sales? This was originally published as How to get your business ready for the holiday shopping season on www.succeedasyourownboss.com -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

04 октября, 18:02

United Parcel (UPS) Faces Multiple Headwinds: Time to Sell?

We expect United Parcel's (UPS) third-quarter results to be hurt by adverse foreign currency movements and lower fuel surcharges.

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02 октября, 19:57

Jabil and FedEx: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Despite beating analyst estimates on the top and bottom lines, shares fell 5.6% following the announcement due to concerns that the company would lose market share from losses in its Apple business.

30 сентября, 11:20

Women In Business Q&A: Shivika Sinha, Director of Digital Marketing, Alex & Ani

Shivika Sinha Shivika's mission is to promote mindful consumerism and support business that have an environmental and social impact. She believes that business must play a role in alleviating humanity's greatest crisis in order for exponential positive impact to occur. Shivika is Director of Digital Marketing at Alex & Ani, a brand that creates eco-conscious jewelry and has donated over $30M to humanitarian causes. Previously, Shivika had spent nearly a decade guiding brand strategy and accelerating growth at organizations like Oscar de la Renta, Gap Inc, Intermix and Fortune 100 companies such as Pepsi, Kraft Foods, Macy's, Fedex and more via Epsilon. She serves on the Advisory Board of The Pivot Conference, where cross-industry leaders unite to fuel digital transformation. She's a judge for the Social Good prize at the Shorty Awards and joins women like Chelsea Clinton as an Influencer on the Mogul platform. Shivika's vision and execution have received acclaim from leading industry publications. She's a frequent speaker on conscious business, mindful consumerism, sustainability, social impact and digital innovation. Her career is augmented by her multidisciplinary experiences and approach. She's an artist, writer, photographer, blogger and former dancer. Shivika was raised in India, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Vietnam and Bangladesh. She holds a M.S. in Integrated Marketing Communications from Northwestern University. How has your life experience made you the leader you are today? I grew up in India, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. During my global upbringing, I observed two cultures at play. One culture was stagnant and ingrained by deep-rooted traditions, religion and family heritage. The other culture was dynamic and ever-changing, being transformed by media, pop-culture, and business. As I bid farewell to the majestic spirit of southern Africa six years after calling it 'home' and celebrated Tet in Vietnam, I decided that I wanted to leverage this ever-changing culture to catalyze ideas that create a sustainable, compassionate and innovative world. My passion to lead people to impact some of humanity's greatest societal struggles comes from observing and learning from my family, whom inspire me every day. My father spent 30 years impact investing with the World Bank. He is a global thought leader in inclusive business and conscious capitalism. My grandfather was a renowned agriculture pioneer in India who dedicated his life to soil conservation and environmental sustainability. My uncle was an economist who fought against poverty and economic divides. He fought for transparency in governments and to turnaround income inequality. Another uncle forged the Shiv Nadar University, India's first multi-disciplinary university which has disrupted the higher education systems. He continues to work on improving the quality of and access to education. Through the examples of my family members, I am driven to continue a legacy of purpose and positive change for future generations. What advice can you offer to women who want a career in your industry? In marketing, as with any field of expertise, it's important to cultivate a growth mindset, insatiable curiosity, passion and the intellectual rigor required to seek out first principles. Strive for excellence in the process of work rather than perfection in the outcome. Fear can be a good thing and a signal that you're headed out of your comfort zone into something that will help you grow to your greatest potential. Failure and success are simply data points telling you which way to go, listen to them but don't dwell on them. Lastly, always strive to gain knowledge as we are all lifelong learners who can grow each day. What is the most important lesson you've learned in your career to date? One of my most vivid memories with my grandfather takes place on a warm day in New Delhi. We sat in our garden and were engaged in musings about life. Since he was over 90 years old and one of the wisest, smartest and most genuine hearted people I knew, I asked him what advice he would give to others who hoped to live a fulfilling life. He said that one should never wait until they're rich enough or have enough time to be of some use. From then on, I've strived to use my education and professional experiences to be of use in solving the problems humanity faces today. How do you maintain a work/life balance? I don't know if such a thing exists in my world. I love what I do, the people I meet as a result of my projects and passions, and the process of work itself. Work and life doesn't separate as disparate entities in my mind and heart. For me, they mesh together and complement one another. I've trained myself to become a morning person. I'm usually up soon after sunrise and use those few quiet hours for meditation and work that requires deep focus. I avoid coffee and alcohol. I keep a gratitude journal and often reflect upon my goals and mission. I strive to stay fully present in each moment during the day. How has mentorship made a difference in your professional and personal life? Mentorship has been a blessing and gift I've been fortunate to receive in my professional and personal life. I'm grateful to call some of the smartest, most inspiring and caring people I've ever met, my friends and mentors. Through the shared experiences of others, I can spearhead the projects that I am passionate about. The energy I receive from my mentors and friends inspires me to keep going each day. It is an honor for me to pass along the same guidance and friendship to others. Perpetuating the cycle to other passionate individuals is a joy and privilege I don't take lightly. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

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29 сентября, 14:10

Amazon Will Deliver Their Own Packages - Revolution At The Delivery Door

Based on experiments at Los Angeles International Airport I conclude that Amazon’s management is bent on bettering UPS, FedEx, and USPS by building out its own delivery service to customers in major cities. I believe it will be very profitable. Amazon is delivering packages in Los Angeles, which is likely to [...]

28 сентября, 21:41

Procrastinating on September 28, 2016

**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org): Must-Reads:** * _[Beating America’s Health-Care Monopolists: Fresh at Project Syndicate - Equitable Growth][]_ * _[The Stakes of the Helicopter Money Debate: A Primer - Equitable Growth][]_ * _[Musings on the Science of "Scaling": Blum Center U.C. Berkeley - Equitable Growth][]_ * **Nick Bunker**: _[Underemployment for recent...

28 сентября, 21:00

2:00PM Water Cooler 9/28/2016

Today's Water Cooler: TPP, CETA, debates, Stein in Maine, Clinton in Florida, durable goods, Amazon vs. UPS and FedEx, police killings, AI

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26 сентября, 16:30

Zacks Earnings Trends Highlights: Oracle, FedEx, Adobe Systems and Alcoa

Zacks Earnings Trends Highlights: Oracle, FedEx, Adobe Systems and Alcoa

24 сентября, 20:20

Recession Watch: US Freight Drops To Worst Level Since 2010

Submitted by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com, “Overall shipment volumes are persistently weak.” When FedEx announced its quarterly earnings today, it included some telling tidbits. In its largest segment, FedEx Express, domestic shipping volume edged up merely 1%. In its smaller FedEx Ground Segment, shipping volume jumped 10%, “driven by e-commerce and commercial package growth.” Sales by e-commerce retailers jumped 15.8% year-over-year in the second quarter, according to the Census Bureau, and companies involved in getting the packages to consumers and businesses have seen growth in those segments. For the rest, not so much – as the goods-based economy is getting bogged down. And this has been showing up in broader shipping data. The Cass Freight Index for August, released today, fell 1.1% from a year ago, to 1.115, the worst August since 2010! The 18th month in a row of year-over-year declines! “Overall shipment volumes (and pricing) are persistently weak, with increased levels of volatility as all levels of the supply chain (manufacturing, wholesale, retail) continue to try and work down inventory levels,” Donald Broughton, Chief Market Strategist at Avondale Partners, wrote in the report. The Cass Freight Index is based on “more than $26 billion” in annual freight transactions by “hundreds of large shippers,” according to Cass Transportation. It does not cover bulk commodities, such as oil and coal but is focused on consumer packaged goods, food, automotive, chemical, OEM, and heavy equipment. It’s not seasonally adjusted, so it shows strong seasonal patterns. In the chart below, the red line with black markers is for 2016. The multi-color spaghetti above it represents the years 2011 through 2015. So here’s how dismal the “economic recovery” has looked in 2016 so far: The report pointed out the growth in e-commerce – the one aspects of the goods-producing economy that is hopping. But it also said that the transit modes servicing the auto and the housing/construction sectors were weak. Both sectors are crucial to the US economy. And rail, as has been the case recently, caught the brunt of it. According to the Association of American Railroads carload traffic – which includes commodities such as oil and coal – fell 6.6% in August from a year ago, and intermodal traffic (containers and trailers), fell 4.8%. The tonnage shipped by truck rose 2.6% on a three-month moving average basis. But truckload volume fell 3.5% in July, leaving the three-month moving average down 1.6%, according to Broughton. “No matter how it is measured, the data coming out of the trucking industry has been both volatile and uninspiring,” he says. Trucking in “mixed” condition – tonnage up, load volume down – and railroads in the tank: hence the worst read in the freight sector since 2010. Plenty of culprits. Weak demand is in part caused by inventories that had been rising so sharply, starting in 2014, that the all-important inventory-to-sales ratio reached Lehman crisis levels (my chart for June). Recently, businesses have been trying to whittle down their inventory levels by reducing orders, and this is impacting the freight sector. Given that inventories remain at very high levels, and the inventory-to-sales ratio at crisis levels, both the high inventory levels and the draw-downs, along with their impact on freight, are likely to continue. Broughton adds, “We remain concerned about elevated levels of cars on dealer lots, and we acknowledge continued efforts to streamline finished inventory in most machinery sectors.” This is the problem with the auto sector: sales have started to cool, even as production hasn’t yet. Something is going to give. If sales don’t pick up miraculously, production will be cut, further hitting railroads and trucking. With freight volume in this precarious position, the freight expenditures index dropped 6.3% in August year-over-year, to the lowest August since 2010: The report blamed the swooning freight expenditures in part on lower fuel surcharges that shippers have to pay, as diesel and jet fuel prices have declined (though they’re currently down only slightly from a year ago). And then this gem: We continue to see this weakness as driven by the excess of capacity in most modes: trucking, rail, air freight, barge, ocean container, and bulk. “Excess of capacity” – or overcapacity – is a term that has come to haunt the global economy, after eight years of QE and zero-interest-rate policies, during which the cost of capital and the idea of risk got manipulated away, and when the alcoholic fumes of money-printing clouded executive decisions and projections. Now there’s a real-economy price to pay. Overcapacity has wreaked havoc in the container shipping sector, with carriers cracking under their debt. Read…  Why Hanjin’s Zombie Collapse Won’t Be the Last One