На детском празднике в Мексике погибли 11 человек. Их расстреляли неизвестные в полицейской форме. Жертвами стрельбы стали семеро мужчин и четыре женщины. Четверых детей злоумышленники не тронули, погибли только их родители, отмечает телеканал "Россия 24".
До сих пор в Мексике не утихает криминальная и антикриминальная война. В стране насчитывается около 10 могущественных картелей, и они ведут борьбу друг с другом. А против них – боевые действия полиция и армия. Причём в последние годы против наркокартелей в основном борются спецподразделения армии, т.к. полиция сильно коррумпирована и труслива. Начиная с 2007 года, […]
Multinational companies operating in Mexico are facing a great deal of uncertainty. The possibility of a contentious renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has led to delayed or canceled investments in what has been one of Latin America’s most economically stable markets. Mexico’s fast-approaching July 2018 general election, of which the populist leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador is the current frontrunner, is further making the case for incremental investments by multinationals corporations. While consumer spending has proven resilient, with same-store retail sales rising 6% YOY in April, most multinational corporations are developing contingency plans to mitigate risks to their businesses and reassessing the country’s role in their global market portfolio and supply chains. Renegotiating NAFTA With the confirmation of Robert Lighthizer as United States trade representative, the long-delayed start of the formal process to begin renegotiation of NAFTA with Canada and Mexico can move forward. Indeed, on May 18 the Trump administration notified the U.S. Congress of its intent to begin the process. My firm, Frontier Strategy Group (FSG), expects that formal talks will begin in late August or early September, after the required 90-day waiting period. Both Canada and Mexico are hoping that adjustments to the trade agreement will deepen integration rather than promote protectionist economic policies; the Trump administration has provided conflicting signals over what kind of measures it will pursue. The Trump administration may no longer be advocating for 25% tariffs on manufacturing imports from Mexico, but it is likely to push hard for trade policies that would severely cripple the benefits offered for multinationals under the current trade agreement. For example, a key source of concern for some companies is more-restrictive rules of origin, which would reduce the amount of materials allowed to be used tariff-free for products traded to and from NAFTA member countries. This would amount to higher tariffs for inputs or final goods, which, though unlikely to reach the 25% tariff levels suggested during Trump’s campaign, would still raise costs for multinationals and further inhibit cross-national supply chain integration. However, new tariffs or more-restrictive rules of origin would likely only fall on a few industries, such as the automotive sector. More companies are concerned that their current supply chain would be more vulnerable to unilateral protectionist measures, such as lower standards for import safeguards. So, if a company manufactures products in Mexico to export to Canada and the U.S. (and vice versa) and can no longer take for granted continued and uninterrupted access to each other’s markets, it would need to radically rethink its localization and sourcing strategy. That would likely lead to closing factories, seeking new sources for inputs, and raising prices to mitigate higher production cuts. Multinationals are heavily pushing for either minor tweaking to the agreement or a modernization of NAFTA. Companies would like to see process improvements and better infrastructure at the border to reduce costs to import. Firms in innovation-driven industries, such as pharmaceuticals and medical devices, have long supported greater standardization across borders, with stronger intellectual property protections and enforcement of regulatory standards. Possibly the greatest improvement to the current trade agreement would come from incorporating industries that were relatively nascent when NAFTA was first negotiated (such as e-commerce and the digital industry), industries that were nationalized at the time (such as Mexico’s energy sector), or industries in the service sector (such as the insurance, accounting, and express delivery industries). These changes would allow for greater standardization across borders, allowing for better access to each other’s markets and increased trade. A revamped NAFTA that incorporates even some of these changes would make renegotiation a net plus for most multinationals — but this would be somewhat counter to the protectionist rhetoric that the Trump administration has previously voiced. An agreement that expands NAFTA is more likely to be negotiated and implemented relatively quickly, while an agreement that incorporates new protectionist measures, especially on discretionary import safeguards and tariffs, would likely be prolonged and contentious. FSG predicts that the renegotiation of NAFTA will incorporate at least some modernization measures mentioned before, particularly those that were previously negotiated under the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but that the Trump administration will push for new import controls, which would prolong a final agreement. The bottom line is, multinationals will not know what will be in the final agreement for years. Growing Populist Movement in Mexico Multinational executives are also paying attention to the country’s upcoming presidential elections. Mediocre growth, continued narco-related violence, and persistent corruption have crippled the electorate’s confidence in the status quo. The current government of Enrique Peña Nieto suffers from record-low approval ratings (link in Spanish), making the ruling party, the PRI, unlikely to retain the presidency. In mid-February FSG surveyed 25 Mexico country managers of multinationals and found that half of them expected the center-right’s candidate, which is likely to be either Margarita Zavala, the first lady during Felipe Calderon’s presidency (from 2006 to 2012), or Ricardo Anaya, the current president of center-right National Action Party (PAN), to win the next presidential election in Mexico. However, leftist candidate and former mayor of Mexico City Andrés Manuel López Obrador is considered the frontrunner in most recent polls, and his populist agenda is considered to be at least somewhat harmful by most of these same executives. Multinational executives fear that his populist programs (such as to implement massive increases in social spending while eschewing tax increases) would severely destabilize Mexico’s already fragile public finances, and that his opposition to the current administration’s structural reforms, particularly in energy and labor, will drive down investments in the market, cause further peso devaluations, and lead to greater confrontation with the Trump administration. FSG believes that López Obrador is the prohibitive favorite, but companies should avoid panicking over his election. If he wins with only a narrow victory, as seems likely, his administration would have a limited mandate for populist reforms that would severely damage foreign investment flows and public finances. His MORENA party remains unlikely to win a clear majority in Mexico’s Congress, which would force him to either moderate his expansionary fiscal policy or face perpetual legislative gridlock from a more conservative Congress. Mexico’s economic performance isn’t likely to significantly improve over the 2% YOY average of the last few decades, but this would not necessarily lead to a major economic downturn. Of course, a narrow victory for López Obrador is not guaranteed. If the center-right PAN candidate wins, whether it is Zavala or Anaya, it would likely help cement business’s confidence in the country’s economic and political stability. Navigating the Next Two Years in Mexico Many of the companies we work with that have operations in Mexico have taken up scenario planning to prepare for a range of potential economic and political changes in the country that could affect their businesses. Most Mexico country managers believe one of the following scenarios is likely: A long period of populist-driven uncertainty. In this case, prolonged and contentious negotiations over NAFTA and a close victory for López Obrador leaves executives confronting a long period of uncertainty, which will fuel depreciation of the Mexican peso and reduce investment. FSG expects that the Mexican peso would depreciate to 22 MXP/US$ over the next two years and that the economy would average growth of 1.8% YOY in 2017–2018. Multinationals anticipating this scenario have delayed major capital investments (including new factories and distribution centers), pursued a cautious approach to price increases (despite rising pressure on margins from a stronger dollar), and increased investments in monitoring customer spending patterns and on lobbying and regulatory support in Mexico and the U.S. The status quo persists. In this case, NAFTA negotiations remain undecided beyond Mexico’s 2018 elections, but the populist surge fails to materialize in the country and the center-right PAN narrowly defeats López Obrador. In this scenario the Mexican peso would likely only depreciate to 20.5 MXP/US$ over the next two years and the economy should grow closer to 2.1% YOY in 2017–2018. Executives who are planning against this scenario are continuing to urge corporate headquarters to invest in the Mexican market, while monitoring the evolution of trade talks and resourcing lobbying efforts in Mexico and the United States. Beyond these two scenarios, most multinationals want their teams to prepare for potential upside and downside scenarios: A pro-business turn. If NAFTA is renegotiated relatively quickly and largely avoids protectionist measures, this would help shore up investments in Mexico and boost prospects for a center-right PAN candidacy to win next year’s elections. This would help keep the peso at an average 19.5 MXP/US$, while economic growth could increase to an average of 2.7% YOY over the next two years. Under this scenario, multinationals would redouble on previously paused investments, increasing manufacturing and supply chain capacity in Mexico in particular and integrating shared services across the border. Furthermore, sales and profitability targets would need to be raised, especially if foreign exchange stability and a broad-based recovery in domestic demand were to occur. A tit-for-tat trade war. If negotiations break down over NAFTA, it would create severe disruptions for the Mexican economy and open the door for populism to take hold. Economic growth would fall to -1.5% YOY in 2017–2018, while the Mexican peso would fall to 25 MXP/US$ over the next two years. In this scenario, which most now deem highly unlikely, multinationals would require a full strategic reset for their short-term operating plans. Companies would have to reassess the weakness of their current supply chain structure, raise prices due to the higher cost of imported goods, and significantly reduce sales targets. If trade conflict persisted, multinationals would need to begin reducing head count and deprioritizing the Mexican market, not just as a manufacturing platform for the U.S. market but also as a priority market in their global portfolios.
Ted Galen Carpenter Security, Americas The already alarming carnage south of the border is likely to get worse. The horrific drug violence that plagued Mexico during Felipe Calderon’s presidency (2006–12) receded just modestly following the election of his successor, Enrique Peña Nieto. Moreover, that trend lasted less than three years. Already in 2015, there were signs of a resurgence of the carnage. By December 2016 the bloodshed had claimed one hundred thousand lives since Calderon first called on the military to take the lead role in trying to suppress the drug cartels a decade earlier. In addition, more than thirty thousand people were missing, and many of them also were likely casualties of the fighting among rival cartels and between the cartels and government forces. Matters have grown even worse in 2017. More than two thousand people were killed in January, and a similar total occurred in March. That toll, if it continues, would exceed the rate during the worst years of the Calderon administration. A new report from the University of San Diego’s Justice in Mexico program documented the growing violence in several Mexican cities, especially Tijuana and Acapulco. The latter now has a homicide rate of 128 per one hundred thousand people. That compares to a rate of twenty-eight per one hundred thousand in Chicago, one of America’s more notoriously dangerous cities. There is little doubt that the turf fights between rival drug cartels account for a large portion of Mexico’s alarming violence. David Shirk, the director of the USD program, estimates that 30–50 percent of the killings are attributable to that factor. And the total does not include the fatalities from shootouts between drug dealers and Mexican security forces, both police and military. Read full article
28 февраля президент США впервые обратился с посланием к обеим палатам Конгресса. Обычно это обращение называется "State of the Union” (состояние Союза, т.е. США), однако классический вариант этой речи предполагает анализ того, что было сделано президентом за прошлый год. Трамп, конечно, в 2016 году достиг много (почти невозможного), но не в качестве президента. Поэтому эту речь стоит назвать, скорее, Future of the Union (будущее Союза) – президент обрисовал ближайшее будущее страны, в которое он намерен ее вести. Ну или Future of the Trump – ведь сегодня от будущего страны зависит и будущее президента. Важность этой речи невозможно перееоценить, ведь Белый дом сейчас находится в осаде хейтеров его нового хозяина.
Former Mexican President Felipe Calderon says he will donate his government pension to a nonprofit group that helps children with cancer.
Бывший президент Мексики Фелипе Кальдерон решил пожертвовать свою пенсию в фонд "Здесь никто не сдаётся" на нужды детям, больным раком. — Я решил передать пенсию, которая мне причитается как экс-президенту Мексики, на нужды организации "Здесь никто не сдаётся" для детей, больных раком, — написал Кальдерон.
Миграционные власти Кубы отказали во въезде в страну экс-президенту Мексики Фелипе Кальдерону (2006-2012 годы), сообщил...
В швейцарском Давосе продолжается Всемирный экономический форум, участники которого – влиятельные бизнесмены и высокопоставленные политики – намерены решить, как защитить глобализацию от заслонов протекционизма. Сегодня на форум прибыл председатель КНР Си Цзиньпин. Что он пытается донести?
В швейцарском Давосе продолжается Всемирный экономический форум, участники которого – влиятельные бизнесмены и высокопоставленные политики – намерены решить, как защитить глобализацию от заслонов протекционизма. Сегодня на форум прибыл председатель КНР Си Цзиньпин. Что он пытается донести?
It is the 10-year anniversary of the start of Mexico’s drug war. Felipe Calderon had only just taken up office as president when he declared an all-out fight against the country’s cartels.
Dec. 11, 2006: Then-President Felipe Calderon orders almost 7,000 soldiers to his home state of Michoacan to fight drug cartels.
Избранный вице-президент США Майк Пенс был встречен свистом и неодобрительным гулом зрителей, когда пришел на хип-хоп мюзикл «Гамильтон» в Нью-Йорке в пятницу вечером. На видео, выложенных в соцсетях, видно, что когда Пенс вошел в зрительный зал, кто-то аплодировал ему, однако большинство пришедших выкрикивали неодобрительные возгласы, передает Би-би-си. После окончания шоу, когда политик собирался покинуть зал, один из актеров позвал его обратно. Чернокожий актер Брэндон Диксон зачитал обращение к Пенсу с листа. Он поблагодарил зрителей за то, что они пришли, а затем сказал: «Вице-президент, я вижу, вы уходите, но я надеюсь, вы послушаете нас еще несколько минут». Когда в зале снова раздались неодобрительные возгласы, он заявил: «Здесь нечего освистывать, дамы и господа, мы рассказываем историю любви». «Майк Пенс, мы рады приветствовать вас здесь. Мы американцы разного происхождения, которые встревожены и обеспокоены тем, что ваша новая администрация не будет защищать нас, нашу планету, наших детей, наших родителей», - сказал актер. Накануне чернокожий рэпер Канье Уэст первым из звезд первой величины высказался в поддержку Трампа. Против Трампа в ходе предвыборной кампании открыто и местами агрессивно выступали почти все западные «селебритис», среди них актеры Джонни Депп, Джордж Клуни, Роберт де Ниро, писательница Джоан Роулинг, артисты Ники Минаж, Рики Мартин и другие. Например, британский рок-музыкант Оззи Осборн назвал Трампа «следующим Гитлером». Бывший президент Мексики Фелипе Кальдерон также сравнил Трампа с Гитлером.
Во время выступления в Калифорнии американский рэпер Канье Уэст столкнулся с неодобрительной реакцией зала на заявление, что он поддерживает избранного президента США Дональда Трампа. «Я говорил, что я не голосовал. Но если бы я голосовал, я бы голосовал за Трампа»,– цитирует Уэста RT. На концерте в Сан-Хосе он призвал темнокожих людей перестать концентрироваться на расизме. «Этот мир расистский. Перестаньте обращать на это так много внимания. Мы живtм в расистской стране – и точка. Не позволяйте людям так много говорить об этом»,– добавил артист. Уэст также рассказал о своем намерении баллотироваться на пост президента США в 2020 году. «У меня есть кое-какие мысли о том, как мы могли бы соединить наши идеи»,– цитирует артиста «Интерфакс». Отметим, что супруга Уэста – актриса и телеведущая Ким Кардашьян – и вся ее семья были ярыми сторонниками демократа Хиллари Клинтон и выражали активную поддержку на протяжении всей ее кампании. Против Трампа в ходе предвыборной кампании открыто и местами агрессивно выступали почти все западные звезды первой величины, среди них актеры Джонни Депп, Джордж Клуни, Роберт де Ниро, писательница Джоан Роулинг, артисты Ники Минаж, Рики Мартин и другие. Например, британский рок-музыкант Оззи Осборн назвал Трампа «следующим Гитлером». Бывший президент Мексики Фелипе Кальдерон также сравнил Трампа с Гитлером.
Clinton And Trump Debate On Bitter Ayotzinapa Anniversary Rights advocates will need to mobilize no matter who wins election. The first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is taking place on the anniversary of the September night, two years ago, when 43 Mexican students were violently attacked and "disappeared" by police, military and criminal gangs in Iguala, Mexico. That's important, because whether or not the candidates even talk about Mexico on Monday night, the complex relationship between the United States and Mexico has become a high profile electoral issue. But the Ayotzinapa tragedy -- so emblematic of the toxic mixture of political repression and impunity that has accompanied drug war militarization and free trade neo-liberalism -- has not been part of the debate. There is a disconnect because neither candidate is speaking honestly about the brutal crisis confronting our southern neighbor or the ways U.S. economic and military policies have made it worse. And no one is proposing anything that will make things better. Empty Desks at Ayotzinapa College Commemorate Missing Classmates Donald Trump launched his campaign with an explicit attack on Mexicans and has kept up a racist drumbeat ever since. His best-known campaign promise is to build a wall on the border with Mexico. He also claims he will force non-specific changes in NAFTA "to help American workers" that are more likely to further advantage economic elites. Trump is bad, provides a poison role model to American children, and deserves utter repudiation. But defeating Trump will not magically fix disastrously misguided Mexico policies developed over many decades. President Obama inherited the Bush-Clinton-Bush Mexico policies that have effectively enthroned NAFTA, sidelined democratic reform, and institutionalized a vicious and destabilizing drug war. In his first term, Obama and his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton backed Felipe Calderon's disastrous escalation of the drug war. At the same time, the administration continued building border barriers, both physical and electronic, while deporting Mexicans at a record pace. In the case of Ayotzinapa, President Obama threw a lifeline to Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto. Peña faced a rising tide of dissent, as the gruesome facts of the attacks on the students became publically known. When Obama embraced Peña at a January 2015 White House meeting, it conferred an imperial stamp of approval that helped Peña retain his grip on power while deep-sixing any chance of a rigorous investigation of the Ayotzinapa crimes. Honduran Garifuna speaker at Ayotzinapa College, representing the five nation Caravan for Peace, Life and Justice, April 2016 So while you are watching Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump make their cases, take a minute to think about the parents all over Mexico whose deepest desire is to see their children alive again. No matter who wins the American election, Mexico's emergency will not end. Trump could make things even worse, but in either case, we will need to continue the struggle to end the drug war, reform trade policies (to give relief to workers on both sides of the border), and developing comprehensive immigration reforms --that prioritize the kinds of bi national economic development that creates more options for people to stay, and prosper, at home. You are not going hear these ideas on Monday night. That is because genuine solutions to our difficult bi-national challenges are not on the table. Any satisfactory answers require deep changes in Mexico, as well as in the United States. That will take an unprecedented cross border movement and awakening based on our mutual interests as human inhabitants of North America, not politics as usual. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
Лауреат премии «Эмми» Джилл Солоуэй назвала кандидата в президенты США от Республиканской партии Дональда Трампа «одним из наиболее опасных чудовищ», сравнив его с лидером нацистской Германии Адольфом Гитлером. «Когда мне нужно будет назвать Трампа наследником Гитлера, я это сделаю», – приводит Associated Press комментарий Солоуэй после того, как ей вручили приз как лучшему режиссеру комедийного сериала за работу «Очевидное», передает RT. Ранее она заявила, что Трамп, подобно Гитлеру, «сегрегирует» различные группы людей, в том числе инвалидов, мусульман, американцев латиноамериканского происхождения и женщин, которые не «выглядят как участницы конкурсов красоты», для того, чтобы добиться власти. Напомним также, в марте 2016 года президент Мексики Энрике Пенья Ньето сравнил «пронзительный тон» речей Трампа со стилем выступлений Гитлера и Муссолини, подчеркнув, что он предлагает нереально простые решения для сложных проблем. Позже Ньето пояснил, что эти сравнением хотел напомнить, к чему может привести популизм. Отметим, Трамп неоднократно заявлял, что если его выберут президентом, он построит стену через всю границу с Мексикой, чтобы предотвратить наплыв нелегальных мигрантов. Также кандидат в президенты США предложил заставить Мексику заплатить за эту стену. Он говорил, что Мексика, по его мнению, посылает в США не самых лучших людей, которые связаны с наркотрафиком и преступностью. Трамп сравнил свою страну с «помойкой» для мексиканских преступников. Президент Мексики в категорической форме отверг возможность оплаты строительства за мексиканский счет. После заявлений Трампа экс-президента Мексики Висенте Фокс назвал его сумасшедшим. Другой бывший президент Мексики Фелипе Кальдерон сравнил Трампа с Гитлером. По данным МИД Мексики, в США проживают около 33,5 млн граждан мексиканского происхождения, а их вклад в американскую экономику составляет порядка 8% ВВП. Объем двусторонней торговли между США и Мексикой в 2014 году превысил 530 млрд долларов. Всеобщие выборы в США пройдут 8 ноября. 17 сентября из резульататов опроса стало известно, что кандидат от Демократической партии США Хиллари Клинтон опережает по популярности республиканца Дональда Трампа на 4%. Между тем, 14 сентября результаты опросов показывали, что кандидат в президенты от Республиканской партии США Дональд Трамп опережает кандидата от демократов Хиллари Клинтон по популярности среди избирателей на 4,7 процентных пункта. Закладки:
В начале недели в Мексике в стычке с военными были убиты 20 членов одного из наркокартелей. Причем перестрелку спровоцировали сами преступники, атаковав патруль силовиков. Подобные инциденты в Мексике давно не редкость: местная наркомафия не боится ни полицейских, ни армии, которым по численности и технической оснащенности не сильно уступает. А своей невероятной жестокостью наркосиндикаты прославились далеко […]
Knowing STEVE BANNON -- New CLINTON ad on Trump’s taxes -- Ryan, Scalise to tailgate in GREEN BAY -- SEAN SPICER profile -- SPOTTED at the MSNBC party
Good Thursday morning from San Francisco. The one thing that has surprised us in our meetings here is how seriously even nascent companies are taking Washington and the prospect of regulations stifling their businesses. Long gone are the days when techies waited to have fights with regulators, or think they can change the world without D.C. interfering. They might not like it -- but that’s the reality, as the tech space has become more crowded. Message to D.C.: Your skills -- whether it’s how to move something through Congress, or how to navigate an agency -- are in high demand out here.KNOWING STEPHEN BANNON -- Bloomberg Businessweek’s Josh Green has a juicy profile of Trump’s new campaign guru. Headline: “Free Donald Trump!”: “Bannon himself has a particularly low regard for the RNC’s capabilities. ‘Sean [Spicer] wanted us to partner up on one of the [Republican] primary debates for $350,000,’ he told me last fall, shaking his head. ‘I said, ‘Sean, I’m not paying you 350 grand to associate Breitbart News with a failed brand like the RNC.’ ‘We gauged the interest of a lot of conservative outlets to see if they’d be interested in the process,’ says Spicer, who insists he didn’t offer Bannon a price. In a brief interview, Bannon said he and Spicer, both ex-Naval officers, would work well together. He declined to address criticism of his appointment … ‘This is the bunker scene in Downfall, only the Trump crowd won’t tell Hitler the truth. It’s utter madness,’ says Stuart Stevens ... ‘Trump is a nut, and he likes to surround himself with nuts. It’s a disaster for the Republican Party.’” http://bloom.bg/2bzUU9X … Josh’s Oct. 2015 Bloomberg Businessweek cover story on Bannon http://bloom.bg/1MfE6hl --NYT A1, “Stephen Bannon, a Rookie Campaign Chief Who ‘Loves the Fight,’” by Michael Barbaro and Michael M. Grynbaum: “As the American financial system collapsed in the fall of 2008, Stephen K. Bannon began to fantasize about destroying something else: the elite economic and political establishment that he believed had created the crisis. Mr. Bannon ... was at the time a highly improbable revolutionary, a wealthy former Goldman Sachs banker and a budding filmmaker. But his blue-collar Southern roots tugged at him: panicked by the swooning market, his father, a telephone company lineman with no college degree, had sold much of the stock in his retirement account. ... “It was the start of a remarkable reinvention that turned a polished corporate dealmaker who once devised $10 billion mergers on Wall Street into a purveyor of scorched-earth right-wing media who dwells in the darker corners of American politics. The website he runs, Breitbart News, recently accused President Obama of ‘importing more hating Muslims’; compared Planned Parenthood’s work to the Holocaust; called Bill Kristol, the conservative commentator, a ‘renegade Jew’; and advised female victims of online harassment to ‘just log off’ and stop ‘screwing up the internet for men,’ illustrating that point with a picture of a crying child.” http://nyti.ms/2b19VyZ --NYT front with TWO Bannon stories: http://nyti.ms/2b6nejw**SUBSCRIBE to Playbook: http://politi.co/1M75UbX--ROGER STONE emailed Daniel, saying Bannon “is a good man, a nationalist like Trump, and a good friend of mine.” He said the hire doesn’t represent a shakeup and the “claim that this is a demotion for Manafort is BS being peddled by disgruntled advance man Corey Lewandowski- the architect of Trump defeats in Wisconsin, North Dakota and Colorado and the overseer of the theft of delegates from under Trump’s nose in Louisiana.”--“Stephen Bannon, Trump’s New C.E.O. Hints at His Master Plan,” by Ken Stern in Vanity Fair: “[W]hen I talked with Bannon, he expressed a wariness about the political genuineness of the Trump campaign persona. Trump is a ‘blunt instrument for us,’ he told me earlier this summer. ‘I don’t know whether he really gets it or not.’ It is likely that Bannon’s political calculus here, if not Trump’s, will be less about winning an election that seems a bit out of hand and more about cementing an American nationalist movement.” http://bit.ly/2aY4hlK--“Trump doubles down in naming a combative true believer as campaign chief,” by WashPost’s Karen Tumulty and Dave Weigel: “Moviemaking has been one of the many chapters of Bannon’s career, which had previously included four years aboard a Navy destroyer, a post-MBA stint with Goldman Sachs, and founding an investment firm specializing in media. In one particularly felicitous deal, Bannon’s fee included an early stake in ‘Seinfeld,’ the residuals of which alone would turn out to be enough to make him wealthy.” http://wapo.st/2beVwTh FUN VIDEO -- “How Seinfeld Explains Stephen Bannon,” by Bloomberg’s Matt Negrin: “Donald Trump’s new campaign CEO, the Breitbart executive Stephen Bannon, apparently gets royalties from ‘Seinfeld’ as his fee for brokering an entertainment deal years ago. If you think that ‘lol nothing matters’ in this presidential campaign, maybe the only way to make sense of it is by viewing the race through the prism of a show about nothing.” http://bloom.bg/2bpqcBU TACO TICK-TOCK – HOWARD FINEMAN in HuffPost, “The Unhappy Campaign Of Paul Manafort”: “On Cinco de Mayo, Trump happened to be eating a taco bowl for lunch at his desk in Trump Tower. Manafort was in the office with other aides when a member of the family suggested they tweet a picture of Trump enjoying his ‘Mexican’ lunch. Manafort politely suggested that this might be seen as condescending and cautioned against it. The tweet went out. Trump himself was delighted by the resulting controversy. ‘The people who were offended were people we wanted to offend,’ he later said.” http://huff.to/2boRObH --“Alt Right Rejoices at Donald Trump’s Steve Bannon Hire,” by The Daily Beast’s Betsy Woodruff and Gideon Resnick: “Kurt Bardella, who had the site as a client until quitting this year, said Bannon regularly made racist comments during internal meetings. ‘I woke up and the world came to an end,’ he told The Daily Beast. ‘They have put in place someone who is a dictator-bully—a figure whose form of management is verbal abuse and intimidation.’ ‘He made more off-color comments about minorities and homosexuals than I can recount,’ he added. Bardella ... said this November, for the first time in his life, he will vote for a Democrat: Hillary Clinton.” http://thebea.st/2bpqBo0 FLASHBACK – March 15, 2016, The Daily Beast’s Lloyd Grove: “That f*****g c**t,” Bannon allegedly said, referring to [his former employee Michelle] Fields. Bannon ... didn’t reply to a detailed text message outlining this anecdote.” http://thebea.st/1RkiRDs WHAT SMART REPUBLICANS THINK -- Steve Bannon is going to exacerbate the Republican-on-Republican tendencies inside the Trump campaign -- especially if Clinton keeps her lead. The campaign will see Clinton and the Republican establishment as the enemy. Just read Breitbart for a preview.EXCLUSIVE -- Another VandeHei/Mike Allen hire -- Bubba Atkinson, the editor of the Independent Journal Review, is leaving to join Jim VandeHei’s not-yet-public media company. Atkinson has been with IJR for four years. VandeHei’s publication, which does not have a public launch date, will include a major events component, we’re told by sources. We hear from people that VandeHei has already raised money for the project. Alex Skatell, the founder of IJR, emails Playbook: “After more than four years with us it’s hard to imagine any one person filling Bubba’s shoes here at IJR, but we’re excited to promote Kate Bennett, Juan Leon, Justin Green and Benny Johnson into new roles leading our Editorial Executive team. There is no getting around it that we’ll miss Bubba and Charlie (our loyal lab), but know he will be equally successful in his new and exciting adventure with Jim, Mike and Roy.” VandeHei announced his intention to start the publication when he left POLITICO in January. He has hired health care reporter David Nather and Bloomberg’s Nick Johnston. --Purple states turning blue! QUINNIPIAC: Clinton +12 in Virginia, +3 in Iowa, +10 in Colorado. Clinton is at 50 percent in Virginia! http://politi.co/2bzecfrNEW ON THE TEEVEE -- Hillary Clinton releases another TV ad, featuring Donald Trump saying he would release his tax returns and a drumbeat of folks wondering aloud what he’s hiding. Cameos by Stelter, George Stephanopoulos, George Will and Mitt Romney. http://bit.ly/2bf9LI4POLITICO “PULSE CHECK” podcast – OBAMACARE’s CEO Kevin Counihan to Dan Diamond, on Aetna’s plan to quit most insurance exchanges and why he’s not sweating Donald Trump’s pledge to get rid of Obamacare. “You’ve got 20 million people enrolled. Those are 20 million voters… I don’t know anything about politics. But I can tell you one thing. I don’t think it matters who’s president … This thing is baked in.” Listen to the podcast http://bit.ly/29MNIoOCASH DASH -- Speaker Paul Ryan and House Majority Whip Steve Scalise are hosting a “tailgate” fundraiser in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Sept. 3, for the Wisconsin/LSU football game. The price: $10,000 per couple for the VIP and photo reception and $1,000 to attend. Invite http://bit.ly/2aYIYAJ-- “Paul Ryan raises about $150,000 for GOP candidate Don Bacon at Omaha event,” by Omaha World-Herald’s Alia Conley and Michael Shoro: “Paul Ryan … helped raise money for Republican congressional candidate Don Bacon in Omaha on Wednesday. Ryan endorsed Bacon and attended a lunchtime fundraiser that hauled in about $150,000 … The event was held at Midtown Crossing and hosted by Ken Stinson, chairman emeritus of Peter Kiewit Sons’ Inc.” http://bit.ly/2bzPcVEHAPPENING TODAY -- Donald Trump is in Charlotte. Mike Pence is in Manchester, New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton is in New York. Tim Kaine is in Jackson, Wyoming.THE MAP -- “Clinton sends Kaine into red territory: Confident in their lead, the Democrats aims to force Trump to spend on defense,” by Gabe Debenedetti: “The vice presidential contender’s trip west to raise cash is taking him to deep-red Idaho after a Wednesday stop in Missouri and reflects the Clinton campaign’s desire to plant a seed of doubt in Trump Tower about the shape of the electoral map. ... Behind the scenes in Clinton’s Brooklyn headquarters, the effort to force Republicans to pump resources into red states rather than traditional battlegrounds has been underway for weeks, breaking out into the open when the Democrats see fit to pounce on the national narrative of Trump’s implosion. Clinton is now trying to unsettle Trump’s expectations in Arizona, Georgia, and Utah, states that — combined — have gone to a Democrat just four times in the last half-century.” http://politi.co/2bDVsOiYIKES -- “Identity thieves target Dems’ big donors after DNC hack,” by Isaac Dovere, Gabe Debenedetti and Dan Spinelli: “The massive data breach that drove the DNC’s chairwoman out the door has now swept up the party’s biggest donors too, their Social Security numbers and personal information compromised by hackers and forcing fundraisers to spend money to protect themselves. ‘All my [s***] was hacked,’ said a major donor ... ‘Now, I’ve got to have LifeLock on my six-year-old daughter’s Social Security number.’ ... In conversations with nearly two dozen top DNC donors and DNC officials, POLITICO found the same set of concerns and complaints repeatedly: donors are seeing hackers attempt to use their personal financial information, they’re being harassed online, they’re anxious about the continuing fallout of the data breach and they’re angry that the DNC did not better protect their most sensitive data.” http://politi.co/2bfdLrX --“Clinton Foundation hired cyber firm after suspected hacking: sources,” by Reuters’ Mark Hosenball, Dustin Volz and John Walcott: “Bill and Hillary Clinton’s charitable foundation hired the security firm FireEye to examine its data systems after seeing indications they might have been hacked.” http://reut.rs/2bppiFF HOT VIDEO -- “CNN Anchor [Brianna Keilar] Owns Trump Adviser [Michael Cohen] After He Asks For Proof Campaign Is In Trouble” – HuffPost: Brianna Keilar: “‘You say it’s not a shakeup, but you guys are down.’ [Cohen]: ‘Says who?’ BK: ‘Polls. Most of them. All of them.’ MC: ‘Says who?’ BK: ‘Polls. I just told you. I answered your question.’ MC: ‘OK. Which polls?’ BK: ‘All of them.’ MC: ‘OK.’” 1-min. video http://huff.to/2b3cSiM --Cohen reacts to Yahoo’s Hunter Walker: “In a conversation with Yahoo News shortly after the conversation aired, Michael Cohen, an executive vice president and attorney at the Trump Organization, said he believed he ‘controlled the interview’ with Brianna Keilar. ‘I think I unraveled her,’” Cohen boasted.” http://yhoo.it/2b6fqOR SEAN SPICER PROFILE – WashPost style cover, “The outsider’s insider: What’s an old Washington hand like Sean Spicer, a veteran spokesman for the RNC, doing tying himself to Trump?” (online headline: “What happens when you tie your career to Donald Trump? Ask Sean Spicer in a few months”) by Ben Terris: “The longest-serving communications director for the [RNC] is a guy who spent years preaching the virtues of free trade and arguing for a kinder, gentler appeal to immigrants — stances that have been all but vaporized by Donald Trump. But if Spicer is suffering culture shock, you wouldn’t know it. The GOP nominee’s winning-is-everything philosophy is one that jibes nicely with his own. ... “But at what cost? If Trump loses, will the out-front spokesman be forever tarnished by association? ... ‘There are doctors who help people who have done bad things, there are lawyers who defend bad people,’ he said. ‘I don’t think it’s unique to my profession.’ ... One editor of a D.C.-based publication said she’s been on the receiving end of so many Spicer tirades that when he calls her at home, her young child will recognize his voice and burst into tears. ‘Sean Spicer,’ she says, ‘is a curse word in our house.’” With cameos by Donna Brazile and Josh Holmes http://wapo.st/2aY02Xy FROM THE TRAIL -- Clinton in Ohio -- “Hillary Clinton slams Donald Trump's tax plan in Cleveland,” by Mary Kilpatrick in the Cleveland Plain Dealer: “The former secretary of state estimated that Trump himself would save his family $4 billion if the tax were eliminated. ... ‘Think of what we could do with $4 billion in Ohio. We could build 280 new elementary schools. We could eliminate the outstanding student loan of 166,000 Ohioans. We could provide healthcare to 370,000 veterans. And we could sure rebuild every crumbing bridge in this state and fix a lot of the highways that are causing folks trouble,’ Clinton said ... Sounds great, right? Except Clinton doesn’t plan to use any of the estate tax money Trump wants to cut to make those kinds of upgrades in Ohio. The improvements she offered were merely examples meant to illustrate the value of a tax Trump hopes to abolish.” http://bit.ly/2boPX6G--“Hillary Clinton Breaks Off Campaign Trail for Meeting With Paul McCartney,” by WSJ’s Byron Tau: “After a rally at a Cleveland high school, Mrs. Clinton made a brief detour to the Quicken Loans Arena to meet privately with the legendary musician.” http://on.wsj.com/2bkLtJQ-- “Clinton meeting with top law enforcement officials in New York,” by AP’s Ken Thomas: “Hillary Clinton is poised to meet [today] with a group of top law enforcement leaders, including the retiring New York City police commissioner who recently said Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy scared him. … [S]he will meet in New York with eight leading law enforcement leaders, including retiring commissioner Bill Bratton of New York City and his successor, James O’Neill; Charles Beck of the Los Angeles Police Department and former police chief Charles Ramsey of Philadelphia.” http://apne.ws/2b1mgcq--VIDEO: Trump holds national security roundtable in New York. http://bit.ly/2b6sR1a … List of participants, per BREITBART! http://bit.ly/2b1pZ9T TEXT FROM TRUMP – “Do you have a TRUMP GOLD CARD? Get it today to become an Executive Member of my campaign. Tap here to help us make history! http://bit.ly/2bEryuf -Donald”BEN SMITH in BuzzFeed, “Donald Trump’s New Media: Political communications and media activism take a step closer”: “The effective merger of Donald Trump’s campaign for president and the obstreperous, resilient media outlet Breitbart makes more sense than anything else that has happened so far this crazy year. Trump’s campaign has always been, to a degree greater even than the usual model campaign, almost entirely a media product: Trump on TV, Trump at rallies, Trump yelling on Twitter. And Breitbart is an exemplar, to a far greater degree than even the old partisan journalism, of a pure and focused ‘media activism,’ in which the technical tools of journalism are turned to clear political ends. Andrew Breitbart, the site’s founder, saw his work this way: not as journalism, but as ‘war.’” http://bzfd.it/2beV8o5 SAVING THE SENATE -- “How To Lose The Senate In 82 Days,” by NPR’s Susan Davis: “‘The bottom is starting to fall out a little earlier than expected,’ says a top Senate GOP campaign aide ... ‘We started off with a very difficult map. No matter what, this was going to be a very difficult year.’ ... That candor is widely — if still privately — shared by increasing numbers of Senate GOP campaign operatives who believe that Trump is destined to lose the presidential race and that the Republican Party’s short-lived, two-year majority will go with it.” http://n.pr/2bzJaV6 NEVER MIND -- “How Bernie Sanders beat the clock — and avoided disclosure,” by Center for Public Integrity’s Dave Levinthal: “[W]hen federal law required Sanders to reveal, by mid-May, current details of his personal finances, his campaign lawyer asked the Federal Election Commission for a 45-day extension. ... Now that Sanders’ second extension has expired, spokesman Michael Briggs confirmed ... that the senator won’t file a presidential campaign personal financial disclosure after all.” http://bit.ly/2b1aHlD DEPT. OF YOU CAN’T MAKE IT UP – NYT A4, “Turkey to Release Tens of Thousands of Prisoners to Make Room for Coup Suspects,” by Tim Arango and Ceylan Yeginsu in Istanbul: “Turkey said on Wednesday that it would empty its prisons of tens of thousands of criminals to make room for the wave of journalists, teachers, lawyers and judges rounded up in connection with last month’s failed coup. ... Turkey said in a decree issued on Wednesday that it would begin releasing up to 38,000 prisoners, or roughly one in five people behind bars.” http://nyti.ms/2bgXUby RIO WATCH -- “Two U.S. Olympic swimmers prevented from leaving Brazil by authorities,” by WashPost’s Dom Phillips and Dave Sheinin in Rio: “Two U.S. Olympic swimmers were prevented from leaving Brazil on Wednesday night as differences emerged in their accounts of an armed robbery they said they endured last weekend. The U.S. Olympic Committee said Wednesday evening that swimmers Jack Conger and Gunnar Bentz were removed from their return flight to the United States by Brazilian authorities. Early Thursday morning, the USOC released a statement indicating Conger and Bentz were no longer being detained but were not yet free to leave the country.” http://wapo.st/2bBmHsyWHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE – “Net neutrality advocate Tim Wu joins White House,” by Nancy Scola: “Tim Wu, the well-known technology and law expert who coined the term ‘net neutrality,’ has joined the White House to work on economic competition issues. Wu is posted in [OMB] working closely with the National Economic Council. ... Until earlier this month, Wu had been serving as a special adviser and legal counsel in the office of New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman. He’ll serve in the White House while on continued leave from Columbia Law School.” For Pros http://politico.pro/2b19VPf OOPS -- “Did the Wall Street Journal scoop itself?” by Hadas Gold: “At 1:09 a.m. on Wednesday, the [WSJ] Twitter account posted an otherwise innocuous looking tweet many newspapers do, previewing an image of its front page for that morning. But this tweet had a bombshell, spread across five columns at the top of the front page. Donald Trump’s campaign was going through a major campaign leadership shakeup: The story, by Monica Langley, was not to be found online anywhere until around 5:00 a.m. In the hours between the tweet and when the Journal posted their own story other news organizations picked up on the news and blasted out their own versions.” http://politi.co/2beVwTn IN THE VALLEY -- “Access, Accountability Reporting and Silicon Valley,” by Adrienne LaFrance in Neiman Reports: “I’ve been offered iPhones, international plane tickets, and more gadgets than I can count. ‘Can also send over a draft press release and a big ol’ bottle of wine for sitting through my email ;),’ one PR person wrote in March. This is what it’s like to be a technology reporter in 2016. Freebies are everywhere, but real access is scant. Powerful companies like Facebook and Google are major distributors of journalistic work, meaning newsrooms increasingly rely on tech giants to reach readers, a relationship that’s awkward at best and potentially disastrous at worst.” http://bit.ly/2boEJPISHOTS FIRED -- @BuzzFeedBen: “So Jeff Zucker says it’s CNN vs. BuzzFeed. We agree. Past vs. future. Stay tuned.”CLINTON ENDORSEMENT -- “Wired Endorses Optimism,” by editor in chief Scott Dadich, writing the first presidential endorsement ever for Wired: “Right now we see two possible futures welling up in the present. In one, society’s every decision is dominated by scarcity. Except for a few oligarchs, nobody has enough of anything. In that future, people build literal and figurative walls to keep out those who hope to acquire our stuff, while through guile or violence we try to acquire theirs. In the other future, the one WIRED is rooting for, new rounds of innovation allow people to do more with less work—in a way that translates into abundance, broadly enjoyed. ... Our sights might not be perfectly aligned, but it’s pretty clear Hillary Clinton has her eye on a similar trajectory.” http://bit.ly/2buZV2u FIRST LOOK -- “Concerned Veterans for America is releasing a new video, ‘Give Veterans The Care They Earned’, in support of Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers’ (R-WA) draft legislation, the Caring for our Heroes in the 21st Century Act. If enacted, the bill would give veterans more control over their health care choices by allowing them to see doctors closer to home and to schedule appointments with more flexibility.” 1-min. video http://bit.ly/2bgZme1 TOP TWEETS -- @benshapiro: “Imagine one of the worst people you personally know running the Republican nominee’s campaign. That’s my life this morning … When I quit Breitbart, they were upset I called them Trump Pravda and specifically singled out Bannon as the betrayer of Andrew’s legacy.” … James Poniewozik (@poniewozik): “Trump is like the guy who fires his doctor for putting him on a diet and finds one who says he can eat steak” … @BeschlossDC: “Historical note: Trump’s classified briefing at 26 Federal Plaza--same building where ex-President Richard Nixon had his office.” PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION -- “Hundreds of fish found dead in pond on National Mall,” by AP: “Officials believe the recent extreme heat was responsible for the deaths of several hundred fish found belly-up in a pond on the National Mall. A mix of bluegill, sunfish and bass was found dead this week in the pond at Constitution Gardens. The shallow pond sits just west of the World War II Memorial.”WEST COAST WATCH -- “Suit filed to permit Californians to carry guns openly in public,” by LA Times’ Maura Dolan: “After losing a challenge to restrictions on carrying concealed firearms, gun owners in California filed a federal lawsuit Wednesday to block a state law that prevents most people from carrying guns openly in public. The lawsuit contends that the ban on openly carrying a gun in public must be struck down now that a federal appeals court has upheld a policy that denies concealed firearm permits to most people in urban counties. The suit was filed by four Los Angeles County residents and the California Pistol and Rifle [Association].” http://lat.ms/2bzRvrDCLINTON fundraising deets, per CNN’s Dan Merica: “The fundraising heavy section of Clinton’s schedule hasn’t even started yet, either, with close to 20 events in Massachusetts, California and New York on Clinton’s schedule for later this month, including some featuring an array of celebrities … Clinton, Kaine and Bill Clinton are expected to attend more than 80 fundraisers this month.” http://cnn.it/2bpHkYdMAYOR OF THE WORLD – FT op-ed by Mike Bloomberg, who was just named Global Ambassador for Noncommunicable Diseases, “The value of local lessons in tackling global killer diseases”: “[NCDs] now represent the world’s leading cause of death, killing 43m people each year, including 16m who die before their 70th birthday. Over 80 per cent of those deaths occur in low- and middle-income nations.” http://on.ft.com/2bkzlZ7 SPOTTED: Jonathan Karl, Devin Dwyer, Arlette Saenz, Ben Bell, Annie Linskey, Zach Carter, and Breanna Chandler all separately getting coffee at the Coffee Bar at 17th and M Street yesterday morning … Jeh Johnson at Maialino yesterday in New York (h/t the Wishingrads)OUT AND ABOUT in NYC -- A pool report: MSNBC staff gathered in New York Wednesday night to celebrate the network’s 20th anniversary (which officially was July 15). Network president Phil Griffin -- an “MSNBC original” himself -- raised a toast to the crowd at Brasserie Ruhlmann in Rockefeller Center, thanking them for their work over the past two decades and in this extraordinarily busy election year. He told the team: “Whether you’ve been here 20 years, 20 weeks, or 20 days, you're a part of building MSNBC.” Pic of Williams and Griffin http://bit.ly/2b3atr9 SPOTTED: Andy Lack, Brian Williams, Lawrence O’Donnell, Stephanie Ruhle, Thomas Roberts, Steve Kornacki, Trymaine Lee, Jacob Soboroff, Ari Melber, Frances Rivera, Cal Perry, Betty Nguyen, Deb Finan, Rashida Jones, Court Harson, Patrick Burkey, and many more. JUST WONDERING -- Who will write the first “Brian Williams has risen” profile? And when will it be done? Daniel guesses spring or summer 2017 in Vanity Fair. Jake says New York Magazine or the New Yorker.BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Glen Caplin, senior national spokesman for the Clinton campaignBIRTHDAYS: Econ lollapalooza: Jason Furman, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, is 46; Austan Goolsbee is 47; and Tim Geithner is 55. Austan writes: “I’m going canoeing at a state park in the morning and then attending the movie premiere of the Obama first date movie Southside With You in the evening (here in Chicago)” … Rosalynn Carter is 89 ... Bob Woodruff is 55 … Obama alum Jon Lovett … Dr. Darryl (“Doc”) Walker ... Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Tex.) is 63 ... RNC’s record breaking finance director Cara Mason (h/t Sean Spicer) ... Paris Dennard, legislative director at Thurgood Marshall College Fund and a Bush 43 WH and RNC alum ... Holly Kuzmich, executive director of the George W. Bush Institute and SVP at the George W. Bush Presidential Center ... Mark Edwards, chocolatier at Edward Marc Chocolatier, is 35 (h/ts Dana, Chris, Tommy) ... Scott Haber, senior comms manager at the Internet Association ... Meera Kallupura, finance associate at Angerholzer Broz Consulting ... Lincoln Foran, associate at J.P. Morgan and a Hotchkiss grad … Andy Federick, a DCCC and DGA alum ... Gerry Wallace is 76, celebrating at the Bedford Springs resort in PA ... Politico alums Bill Tomson and Ethan Melnick ... Megan Scully, defense and national security reporter at CQ ... Roll Call’s Simone Pathe, a Newshour alum ... Jeffrey Hiday, director of media relations at RAND Corporation ... WSJ and NJ alum Martin Vaughn ... … CNN alum Kristi Slafka Brannan ... Connie Hair, COS for Rep. Gohmert … Betsy Stark, managing director of content and media strategy at Ogilvy and an ABC News alum ... Gab Forsyth of Sen. Perdue’s office, an NRCC alum ... J.P. Duffy, VP of comms at Family Research Council … Matt Chandler, partner at Frontier Solutions and a DHS alum … Elizabeth Metraux, comms. director at NIH ... Haley Graves, comms director for House Ag ... Luke Mitchem of Rep. Ellmers’ office ... Lou Ventre of Senate Radio TV Gallery ... Jordan Baugh, LA for Sen. Gillibrand ... Shaun Sahloff, LA for Rep. Cresent Hardy ... former Rep. Gary Lee (R-NY) is 83 ... former Rep. Toby Moffett (D-CT) is 72 (h/ts Legistorm) ... Elizabeth Hart … Kim Haddow, celebrating with her lovely husband at their fabulous house on the water ... Beth Grupp, having a blast out of the country ... Pat Heinz-Pribyl ... Pam Houston ... Jua Johnson ... Bob Dvorsky ... Margaret Planner (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Dan Sullivan, founder and managing director of Montrose Advisors (h/t Senator Warner) ... Chris Black ... Lauren Smith ... the former president of Mexico, Felipe Calderon, is 54 ... movie director Roman Polanski is 83 ... Olympic gold medal decathlete Rafer Johnson is 81 ... Robert Redford is 8-0 ... Martin Mull is 73 ... Denis Leary is 59 ... Christian Slater is 47 ... Edward Norton is 47 ... Malcolm-Jamal Warner is 46 ... Andy Samberg (“Saturday Night Live”) is 38 ... actress Parker McKenna Posey is 21 (h/ts AP)