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Foreign Affairs
Foreign Affairs
«Foreign Affairs» (Фо́рин аффе́рс) — американский журнал по тематике международных отношений и внешней политики США, выходящий шесть раз в год. Издатель — Совет по международным отношениям. Журнал считается наиболее авторитетным в вопросах внешней политики США. Ж ...

«Foreign Affairs» (Фо́рин аффе́рс) — американский журнал по тематике международных отношений и внешней политики США, выходящий шесть раз в год. Издатель — Совет по международным отношениям. Журнал считается наиболее авторитетным в вопросах внешней политики США.

Журнал выходит с 1922 года; основателем и первым редактором (до 1927 года) был Арчибальд Кэри Кулидж.

Тираж журнала рос:

  • 1922 год — 5 тысяч экземпляров;
  • 1959 год — 27 тысяч;
  • 1963 год — 57 тысяч;
  • 1976 год — 72,5 тысячи;
  • 2014 год — 170 тысяч

Позиция по отношению к СССР

Уже первый номер содержал статью самого Кулиджа «Россия после Генуи и Гааги», которая после анализа новой экономической политики и дипломатических усилий большевистского государства высказывала сомнения в долговечности текущего курса большевиков и предлагала «четыре очевидных возможности» развития (контрреволюция, экономическая реставрация капитализма, раскол партии большевиков с возвратом к жёсткой коммунистической идеологии и рост экономических проблем, в результате которых страна «впадет в анархию, развалившись на куски»). За первые 50 лет существования в журнале были опубликованы 220 статей по советской тематике (почти по одной статье в каждом номере). По утверждению Р. С. Овинникова, «ни одна из них не была дружелюбной» Вики

 

Foreign Affairs — семнадцатый эпизод девятого сезона мультсериала «Гриффины».

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/issues/2015/94/6

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26 апреля, 02:15

War Hero Senator Challenges Donald Trump With Patriotic Speech

Many Americans have challenged President Donald Trump’s bleak vision of the country. But few have the credibility of Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), an Iraq War veteran who lost her legs in 2004 when a rocket-propelled grenade hit her helicopter. Duckworth delivered her first speech from the Senate floor Tuesday, offering a nuanced but ultimately optimistic perspective on the United States’ past, present and future.  Although Duckworth never once mentioned Trump’s name, her remarks were a clear rebuke to the president and his nativist, “America first” view. It also criticizes Republican indifference to health care coverage and the GOP’s uneven record on civil rights. Here is a key passage: “America’s greatness has never depended on the strength of any individual person, but on all of us, working together towards a common goal. But when we’ve failed to stay true to our core values ― when we deny another person our nation’s promise of opportunity ― our national strength suffers. “When a child can’t access the tools to succeed in school, when a woman can’t afford basic health care, when refugees fleeing terror see the door slammed in their face, when we deny civil rights on the basis of skin color or sexual orientation or religion, and when a working family can’t put food on the table, our whole nation suffers.” Watch the whole speech above. Contrast that with a key passage from Trump’s inaugural address: From this moment on, it’s going to be America first. Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs, will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs. Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. Where Trump sees newcomers and interaction with the world almost exclusively as threats to U.S. prosperity, Duckworth sees them as assets ― and views cutting them as the real threats to the fabric of the country. Duckworth was elected to the Senate in November, defeating Republican Mark Kirk, 54 to 40 percent. She had served two terms as the congresswoman for Illinois’s 8th District, which includes Chicago’s northwestern suburbs. Her victory returned an Illinois Senate seat to the Democrats that had once been held by former President Barack Obama. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

26 апреля, 00:13

Royce chides Obama administration on proliferation

House Foreign Affairs chair asks State, Justice to revive probes that may have been undermined by Iran dealings.

25 апреля, 21:12

Here's Why Homebuilder Stocks (KBH, DHI, LEN, PHM) are Falling Today

On Tuesday, shares of prominent homebuilder stocks are sliding in midday trading after the Trump administration announced a new tariff on Canadian soft wood lumber imports.

25 апреля, 20:24

Trump's biggest unfilled jobs

Almost 100 days in, these key under-the-radar jobs are still sitting empty.

25 апреля, 17:30

CLAIRE BERLINSKI: Turkish democracy didn’t die all at once in last week’s referndum; it’s bee…

CLAIRE BERLINSKI: Turkish democracy didn’t die all at once in last week’s referndum; it’s been languishing for years. Why did so many in the West fail to notice? On April 16, Turkish voters narrowly approved a referendum that replaced their country’s parliamentary democracy with an “executive presidency.” Steven Cook, of the Council on Foreign Relations, […]

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25 апреля, 17:21

UKIP burka ban policy 'misguided' says party's MEP

UKIP's foreign affairs spokesman resigns his post in protest at leader Paul Nuttall's call to ban the burka.

25 апреля, 15:20

Syrian Civilians Are Being Killed Without Any Chemicals

Three weeks have passed since the American missile attack on the Syrian air base, Shayrat. Apparently, it was payback for an alleged chemical attack conducted by Syrian warplanes on Shaykhun, Idlib, which is controlled by Al-Nusra terrorists.

25 апреля, 00:56

Trump Joins Grand Bipartisan Tradition Of Denying Armenian Genocide

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); WASHINGTON ―President Donald Trump on Monday adopted a controversial but traditional Washington line by avoiding the term “genocide” in describing the Turkish government’s pogrom against its Armenian citizens in 1915.  In a statement issued on the day historians say the genocide began, Trump noted Armenians’ mass suffering and the deaths of more than 1 million people, but he did not say there was a “genocide,” a step advocates say is essential for the sake of victims, honesty about the past and America’s credibility as a moral actor. “Sadly, he ended his first 100 days in office on the most shameful of notes, and has cemented his position as the ultimate Washington politician,” Steve Oshana, executive director of the Middle East Christian advocacy group A Demand for Action, wrote on Facebook after seeing Trump’s statement. For years, concerns about angering Turkey, a strategically important partner for the U.S., and strong lobbying efforts by the Turks have stymied attempts to change official U.S. government policy to acknowledge the genocide. Presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan did use the term in office, but George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama shied away from it, even fighting congressional efforts to endorse it. Trump crafted an image of himself as a gutsy outsider on the campaign trail and in doing so had raised expectations that he might challenge the taboo, Oshana said. But his statement reflected the power that Washington orthodoxy ― the logic of the “swamp” that he pledged to drain ― retains in the nation’s capital.   It’s hard to publicly admit to toeing the Washington line while in office. But former top officials have more leeway to expose hypocrisy and moral failures. Hours after Trump issued his statement, Samantha Power, a top aide to Obama, tweeted out a public apology for the former administration’s failure to acknowledge the genocide ― rare for a member of a team that has loudly defended its approach to foreign policy and human rights in the face of serious criticism. I am very sorry that, during our time in office, we in the Obama administration did not recognize the #Armenian Genocide— Samantha Power (@SamanthaJPower) April 24, 2017 As a senator, Obama had long supported congressional attempts to recognize the genocide. He promised he would do so in the Oval Office. Trump was less forthcoming about how he would handle the issue. But a complicating factor has been his apparent fascination with strongman-type rulers, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Trump has cheered Erdogan as he has consolidated his power. Earlier this month, Trump was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Erdogan after he won a contentious and arguably unfair referendum election earlier this month that increased his authority. (Despite the chumminess, his careful comments on the genocide didn’t entirely satisfy the Turks ― Erdogan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned it Monday evening, and the Turkish efforts to trivialize the genocide in the U.S. and elsewhere continue.) The use of the genocide label matters for a range of reasons, including because it helps the ongoing court battles of families trying to win back stolen property and could deter further human rights abuses by Turkey’s increasingly authoritarian government, Oshana told HuffPost. His organization was at the center of the fight to make Congress and the Obama administration acknowledge the so-called Islamic State’s assault on minority groups, notably Christians and Yazidis, as a genocide. Still, Trump avoided breaking the mould. Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, noted the continuity in his Monday press briefing.  “The statement that was put out is consistent with the statements that have been put out for at least several of the past administrations,” Spicer said. “So I think if you look  back to the language that President Obama, President Bush, etc., have used, the language that the president used is consistent with all of that.” -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

24 апреля, 21:53

Ivanka Trump faces skeptical audience in Berlin

The first daughter's inclusion on a panel of world leaders gives insight into Angela Merkel’s strategy for diplomacy with the U.S. president.

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24 апреля, 20:00

DG Azevêdo and Argentina’s minister Malcorra meet with negotiating group chairs

Director-General Roberto Azevêdo welcomed Susana Malcorra, Argentina’s Minister for Foreign Affairs and host of the 11th WTO Ministerial Conference, to the WTO on 24 April to discuss the forthcoming Conference which will be held in Buenos Aires at the end of the year. After a bilateral meeting they hosted a roundtable meeting which was the first of its kind – a preparatory discussion between WTO negotiating group chairs and a Ministerial Conference host.

23 апреля, 14:00

SALENA ZITO: How Trump Voters Feel About His First 100 Days. And now? “Nothing has changed,”…

SALENA ZITO: How Trump Voters Feel About His First 100 Days. And now? “Nothing has changed,” said Rob Hughes, a registered Democrat and retired businessman from Bulger, Pa., who I met on my cross-country trip, told me last week. “Well, that’s probably not entirely true. I think I like him more now that he is […]

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23 апреля, 12:26

Morocco summons Algeria envoy over Syrian refugees

RABAT (Reuters) - Morocco has summoned Algeria's ambassador to express concern after 54 Syrians attempted to "illegally enter" the country from Algeria, the ministry of foreign affairs said in a statement on Sunday.

23 апреля, 11:00

The Gay, Conservative Christian Who Might Be Trump's NATO Ambassador

Richard Grenell’s struggles with his faith and identity inform his public work.

23 апреля, 03:51

Trump's Foreign-Policy Strategy Will Be Driven by Current Events

Leon Hadar Security, Americas Many presidents have built their foreign-policy strategy around ad hoc responses to unexpected developments. There is something both depressing and hilarious about the way Washington’s journalists and pundits are on a never-ending search by for President Trump’s foreign-policy doctrine, or in the way political scientists are trying to figure out the “school of thought” that best describes the current White House’s set of ideas about global affairs. Equally entertaining are the attempts by foreign-affairs analysts to place the new president’s hodgepodge of foreign-policy decisions in some context, in the form of a grand political narrative, to provide it with some meaning. Trump’s “America First” campaign rhetoric included attacking U.S. “regime change” policies, lashing at American military interventions in the Middle East, and bashing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as “obsolete.” This suggested to his internationalist critics that he was an “isolationist” and implied to his right-wing nationalist fans that he was one of them. Free traders panicked after candidate Trump pledged to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. Meanwhile, protectionists hailed his threats to designate China as a “currency manipulator” and to impose punitive tariffs on its imports, and economic nationalists hailed his challenge to the bipartisan U.S. commitment to liberalizing free trade. Indeed, intellectuals—or those who pretend to be intellectuals—believe that national policies are based on a specific conceptual framework, and tend to examine foreign-policy decisions made by the White House as a reflection of a president’s political philosophy and the outcome of battles of ideas between his aides. Intellectuals certainly feel in metaphysical heaven when they imagine that a president is echoing their ideas. Hence, President Trump’s talk about working together with Russian president Vladimir Putin and Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad in the fight against the Islamic State was supposedly a clear indication to his supporters that he was a realist when it came to foreign policy. If Bismarck and Metternich had a son, that son would have been Trump, and Kissinger would have played the role of his godfather. Read full article

21 апреля, 22:01

Doug Irwin on “The False Promise of Protectionism”

Why Trump’s Trade Policy Could Backfire That’s a new Foreign Affairs essay out today by Doug Irwin, Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College: Although Trump’s professed goal is to “get a better deal” on trade, his brand of economic nationalism is just one step away from old-fashioned protectionism. The president claimed that “protection will lead […]

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21 апреля, 20:29

IT’S COMPLICATED: North Korean ships dock in Chinese port despite coal embargo. The ships docked …

IT’S COMPLICATED: North Korean ships dock in Chinese port despite coal embargo. The ships docked Thursday and Friday at a port in the city of Tangshan in northern Hebei province, near Beijing. All six North Korean ships were loaded with anthracite coal, according to a daily docking plan published on the port of Jintang’s website. […]

21 апреля, 17:32

На пороге отмены санкций против России

В эти дни, 20-22 апреля, в Крыму проходит 3-й Ялтинский международный экономический форум (ЯМЭФ-2017), в ходе которого планируется подписание соглашений и меморандумов о реализации инвестиционных проектов с общим объемом инвестиций более 53 млрд. российский рублей.В числе участников ЯМЭФ-2017 бизнесмены и политики из Абхазии, Австралии, Анголы, Беларуси, Болгарии, Бразилии, Великобритании, Венгрии, Венесуэлы, Германии, Греции, Доминиканской Республики, Израиля, Иордании, Ирландии, Казахстана, Катара, Кипра, Китая, Кореи, Латвии, Малайзии, Монголии, Мьянмы, Никарагуа, Новой Зеландии, Польши, Бурунди, Палестины, Сербии, США, Туниса, Турции, Финляндии, Чехии, Швейцарии, Эстонии и Японии.Самой многочисленной стала делегация из Италии - в ее состав вошли более 50 представителей.Как видно, "единая позиция" стран ЕС и некоторых других государств мира становится не такой уж единой, а присутствие на форуме представителей стран-санкционеров, в том числе США, - явное тому подтверждение. Все уже давно понимают, что такими санкциями делают хуже только самим себе. В частности, стремительно снизились многомиллиардные товарообороты, в след за этим крупные предприниматели и промышленные предприятия теряют огромную прибыль. Более того, нет прибыли - нет должного отчисления налогов в казну государств. Все просто - законы экономики.Женевский институт исследований международных отношений и развития (PSIG) определил страны, в наибольшей степени потерявшие от санкционного противостояния России и Запада. Самыми пострадавшими оказались Прибалтика и Польша - верные сторонники политики санкций.Кроме того, больше всего от введенных Россией ограничений пострадали фермеры и сельскохозяйственные кооперативы в странах Евросоюза, многие из них находятся на грани банкротства.Так, спрашивается, кому делаем хуже?Греция и Италия пострадали меньше других, но именно они громче всех призывают к прекращению санкционного противостояния и постоянно ищут возможности для улучшения экономических взаимоотношений.К слову, 11 апреля президент России Владимир Путин в ходе встречи с президентом Италии Серджо Маттареллой сообщил, что товарооборот между Россией и Италией за последние годы упал в 2,5 раза.Более того, в октябре 2016 года премьер-министр Италии Маттео Ренци выступил против предложения ввести новые санкций в отношении России.Премьер-министр Италии Паоло Джентилони в ходе недавнего выступления в Центре стратегических и международных исследований в Вашингтоне заявил, что "экономики стран Евросоюза уже много потеряли на санкциях против России". В свою очередь, представитель партии "Лига Севера" Серджо Дивина (Sergio Divina) отметил, что с момента введения антироссийских санкций Италия уже потеряла около 4 млрд. долларов."Санкции противоречат внутренним интересам Европы. Это удар по нашему карману - особенно для тех, кто, как Италия, пострадал от снижения экспорта в Россию. Эффект от потерь ощущается до сих пор", - сказал он.Стоит отметить, что дивиденды от такой санкционной политики получает США (и некоторые другие "недогосударства"), которым выгодно ослабление ЕС, находящегося в "стрессе" от несогласованности в сфере миграционной политики, потрясений, связанных с террористическими актами, попыток самоопределения некоторых стран с целью получения независимости с последующим выходом из состава ЕС и др.Стоит отметить, что и в США имеются свои взгляды на результаты санкций. Так, сотрудница Института Катона (Вашингтон) Эмма Эшфорд в январско-февральском номере Foreign Affairs изложила свою точку зрения, озаглавив свою статью так: "Не столь умные санкции". А также подзаголовок: "Провал западных ограничений против России".Тем временем, у России выработался устойчивый иммунитет к экономическим санкциям, которые, как это ни парадоксально, ударили по доходам простых граждан в Европе, считающим своим врагом правительства тех стран, которые вводили эти санкции. Словом, США и ЕС на себе почувствовали, почем нынче антироссийские санкции.Автор: Игорь Павлюкевич(https://newsland.com/comm...)

20 апреля, 17:00

Further Guidance for Ivanka Trump’s Visit to Germany for the W20 (Women’s 20) Summit in Berlin

Ivanka Trump, First Daughter and Assistant to the President, will visit Berlin, Germany on April 25th at the direct invitation of Chancellor Angela Merkel to participate in the W20 Summit. Ivanka will join a panel conversation with other women leaders regarding Women’s Economic Empowerment and Entrepreneurship. Ivanka’s visit to Berlin stemmed from the roundtable on Vocational Education and Workforce Development she hosted with Chancellor Merkel at the White House in March. With education and skills training being central to Ivanka and Chancellor Merkel’s agenda, Ivanka will visit Siemens Technik Akademie for an interactive tour and discussion with program apprentices. In commemoration of Yom HaShoah, Ivanka will visit the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe in Berlin. Ivanka will also stop by the United States Embassy in Berlin to meet Embassy staff and their families. Tentative schedule is as follows: 11:20AM:     Visit to the United States Embassy in Berlin Press: Closed Press Location: Pariser Platz 2 1:00PM:       Participation in panel entitled “Inspiring Women: Scaling up Women’s Entrepreneurship” Press: Open Press Location: Intercontinental Hotel Budapester Str. 2 Participants: Queen Máxima (Netherlands) Christine Lagarde (Managing Director, IMF) Ivanka Trump (First Daughter of the United States) Chrystia Freeland (Minister for Foreign Affairs, Canada) Manuela Schwesig (Federal Minister for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth, Germany) Nicola Leibinger-Kammüller (Chair Trumpf GmbH) Juliana Rotich (BRCK) Anne Finucane (Bank of America) Moderator:       Miriam Meckel, Editor-in-Chief of “Wirtschaftswoche” 3:30PM:       Visit to Siemens Technik Akademie Press: Pool – Coordinated by the Embassy, details forthcoming Location: Nonnendammalle 104 4:40PM:       Visit to the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe Press: Closed Press Location: Cora-Berliner-Straße 1 8:00PM:       Gala Dinner Press: Spray at the Top Location: Deutsche Bank Charlottenstraße 37-38

20 апреля, 14:00

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The changes to the GOP health-care bill -- WH looking to stoke a shutdown fight over border wall -- O’REILLY OUT: Replaced by DC’s own Tucker Carlson -- 2017 Time 100 List -- B’DAY: Evan Smith

Listen to the Playbook Audio Briefing http://bit.ly/2ouoq4Z ... Subscribe on iTunes http://apple.co/2eX6Eay ... Visit the online home of Playbook http://politi.co/2f51JnfGood Thursday morning.THE DOCUMENT EVERYONE WANTS -- CHANGES TO THE NEW GOP HEALTH CARE PLAN -- Speaker Paul Ryan said in London Wednesday that Republicans are putting the “finishing touches” on a new health-care proposal. Well, here it is. This document represents the most recent summary of negotiations between moderate Republicans and the House Freedom Caucus. Will it pass? Maybe! But after a few weeks of raucous town halls, it might not. But Republicans seem hell bent on giving it a try. Passing it next week seems like a stretch, given Congress doesn’t come back until Tuesday, which puts a vote on Thursday or Friday -- and the government shuts down Friday. Our experience on the Hill tells us the institution can handle one big issue at once, usually. WHAT TO KNOW: Conservatives seem pretty pleased with what they got. They were intricately involved in a negotiation that everyone dismissed. A senior conservative aide said they are particularly pleased with instituting high-risk pools to deal with pre-existing conditions. The hottest policy document in town http://politi.co/2o6HGtX WHERE THINGS STAND ON THE FUNDING FIGHT -- GOV’T SHUTS DOWN IN 8 DAYS -- “White House eyes harder line on shutdown talks,” by Josh Dawsey and Jake Sherman: “The White House, under internal pressure to show legislative achievements ahead of the 100-day mark, is gearing up for a government-shutdown fight to secure money for a border wall, more immigration enforcement officers and a bigger military, according to White House and congressional sources familiar with the plan. It is a risky gambit. With almost uniform Democratic opposition to nearly all of the Trump administration’s spending proposals, the fight could lead to a government shutdown next Friday - the day government spending expires, and right before the 100th day of Donald Trump’s presidency. Officials could also strike a one-week compromise, giving them more time for a broader agreement. “Congressional Republicans, desperately looking to avoid a shutdown scare, are eyeing a modest increase for border security - perhaps an increase in funding for surveillance technology - and a small uptick in military spending. But two senior White House officials say they want a bigger win out of the fight, and an important deadline might help.” http://politi.co/2ouaFDm-- WHAT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR: House Democrats hold a conference call today to discuss their strategy for the government funding fight, and House Republicans hold a rare Saturday call this week. We expect government funding and health care to dominate the conversation.**SUBSCRIBE to Playbook: http://politi.co/2lQswbhDEPT OF UNKEPT PROMISES -- “Trump’s missing 90-day cyber plan,” by Isaac Dovere, Eric Geller, and Matt Nussbaum: “President-elect Donald Trump was very clear: ‘I will appoint a team to give me a plan within 90 days of taking office,’ he said in January, after getting a U.S. intelligence assessment of Russian interference in last year’s elections and promising to address cybersecurity. Thursday, Trump hits his 90-day mark. There is no team, there is no plan, and there is no clear answer from the White House on who would even be working on what. It’s the latest deadline Trump’s set and missed — from the press conference he said his wife would hold last fall to answer questions about her original immigration process to the plan to defeat ISIS that he’d said would come within his first 30 days in office.” http://politi.co/2pUxnWsNEW POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL -- “Donald Trump gets his 100-day report card,” by Steven Shepard: “As Donald Trump nears the 100-day mark in the White House, voters are grading his performance on a partisan curve. Republicans are inclined to give him good grades on his performance in office so far – mostly A’s and B’s. Democrats are tougher in their assessments – mostly D’s and F’s, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. Trump earns his highest marks on fighting terrorism, the poll shows. But when Trump reaches his 100th day in office next week — a historical marker for each new administration – his failure to shepherd a promised health care bill through Congress will be noted by voters. On health care, climate change and Trump’s promises to ‘drain the swamp’ of special interests in Washington, voters are far more critical of the new president’s performance thus far. … “Asked to grade Trump’s first three months as president overall, 16 percent give Trump an ‘A,’ and another 23 percent award Trump a ‘B.’ But roughly as many voters give Trump poor marks. Trump gets a ‘D’ from 13 percent of voters, and nearly a quarter, 24 percent, give him an ‘F.’ One reason is that partisanship continues to dominate and color opinions of Trump’s nascent presidency. Nearly half of self-identified Democratic voters, 48 percent, give Trump an ‘F’ grade, and an additional 19 percent award him a ‘D.’ Republicans and Trump voters view Trump’s presidency more positively, but he isn’t earning straight ‘A’s from his base.” http://politi.co/2opjmjj-- PREVIEW: The White House is going to spend a lot of time next week arguing that they have been as productive as any modern White House, with 25 bills signed into law in their first 100 days, plus an almost equal amount of executive orders. AN SNL SKIT IN THE MAKING -- PATRIOTS STAR ROB GRONKOWSKI interrupts Patriot superfan and Rhode Island’s own Sean Spicer’s briefing. http://bit.ly/2o6Nxj4 THE 2017 TIME 100 LIST (off a 7 a.m. embargo): President Donald Trump, by Speaker Paul Ryan; Reince Priebus, by Rahm Emanuel; Stephen Bannon; Ivanka Trump, by Wendi Murdoch; Jared Kushner, by Henry Kissinger; Bob Ferguson; Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), by Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.); James Mattis; Rebekah Mercer, by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas); Tom Perez, by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.); Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), by Harry Reid; Jim Comey by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.); Sandra Day O’Connor, by Sonia Sotomayor; and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). The full list http://ti.me/2oubFap … The five covers, featuring Viola Davis, John Legend, Jeff Bezos, Melinda Gates and Riz Ahmed http://bit.ly/2piCRhgANOTHER JOB FOR WILBUR ROSS! -- “Trump plans executive order on steel imports,” by Doug Palmer and Adam Behsudi: “President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order as early as Thursday directing the Commerce Department to investigate whether steel imports into the U.S. should be blocked on national security grounds, according to sources familiar with the plan. A number of steel industry executives have been invited to the White House for an event with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Representatives from ArcelorMittal, Nucor, U.S. Steel, AK Steel and Timken are expected, along with the president of the United Steelworkers union. “China’s excess capacity to produce steel is seen as a long-term threat to the U.S. steel industry’s viability, but it’s unclear if the order will single out any country or be global in scope. The proposed order would direct Ross to launch an investigation under a provision of U.S. trade law that requires the Commerce secretary to report to the president within 270 days whether a certain product is being imported in sufficient quantities or under such circumstances that it threatens to impair national security.” http://politi.co/2pU9C0P-- FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK AT HOME: Ross has also been tasked with coming up with a report on Trump’s executive order to “Buy American, Hire American” and potential abuse of H-1B visas. He is also supposed to be taking the lead on re-negotiating trade deals. TRUMP’S THURSDAY -- TRUMP will hold a signing event for a probe into U.S. trade policies, he’ll meet with H.R. McMaster and then welcome Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni of Italy. He’ll hold a press conference with Gentiloni at 3:50 p.m.O’REILLY’S OUT -- “Bill O’Reilly Is Forced Out at Fox News,” by NYT’s Emily Steel and Mike Schmidt: “Mr. O’Reilly’s fate [was] in the hands of the Murdoch family, which controls 21st Century Fox. In the end, according to two people familiar with the decision, Rupert Murdoch and his sons, James and Lachlan, made their call after reviewing the results of an internal investigation that found that multiple women had reported inappropriate behavior by Mr. O’Reilly. …“The company ... extended his contract this year. The contract did provide the company with some protections, including that Mr. O’Reilly could be dismissed if it was made aware of other allegations against him or if new ones arose, according to one person. The contract also included extra assurances meant to get Mr. O’Reilly to address his behavior, the person said. Mr. O’Reilly’s salary was estimated to be about $18 million.” http://nyti.ms/2oYj1ar -- A PROGRAMMING NOTE: NYT’s Mike Schmidt also broke the Hillary Clinton server story, and countless stories about steroids and other malfeasance in baseball.-- @MattGarrahan: “Feb 2015: Bill O’Reilly tells @emilysteel ‘I’m coming after you with everything I have.’ April 2017: O’Reilly fired after Emily’s reporting”-- O’REILLY is being replaced by D.C.’s own Tucker Carlson in the 8 p.m. hour, and “The Five” is moving to 9 p.m.-- O’REILLY’s ouster is on the cover of the NYT (http://nyti.ms/2oYfHvJ), WashPost, N.Y. Daily News (http://bit.ly/2pFAF0h) and WSJ (http://bit.ly/2oYmHsy), but not on the cover of the N.Y. Post (http://nyp.st/2ousqSX). -- SARAH ELLISON in Vanity Fair, “After Bill O’Reilly’s Ouster, Fox Executives Fear ‘There’s More to Come’”: “The reactions to the news of O’Reilly’s departure were decidedly mixed in the newsroom. Some staffers cried. Others were elated. ... [T]he day was filled with an ominous tension as the elder Murdoch, the network’s C.E.O., moved from one closed-door meeting to another to inform on-air talent of their new jobs. ... The most unsettling feeling among some at Fox News, however, is that Wednesday’s events are only the beginning. ‘There’s more to come,’ one Fox News insider told me, suggesting that there are more women with stories of harassment who have not come forward publicly. This estimation was affirmed by two people who heard such stories directly.” http://bit.ly/2pUbOoYLEAD STORY IN TODAY’S WSJ -- “Exxon Seeks U.S. Waiver to Resume Russia Oil Venture: ExxonMobil applied to Treasury for exemption to resume venture with Rosneft forged in 2012 by Rex Tillerson,” by Jay Solomon and Bradley Olson: “Exxon has been seeking U.S. permission to drill with Rosneft in several areas banned by sanctions and renewed a push for approval in March, shortly after its most recent chief executive, Rex Tillerson, became secretary of state on Feb. 1, according to one of these people. The company originally applied for a waiver to gain access to the Black Sea in July 2015 but its application wasn’t approved, the person said. …“Exxon’s proposal to drill in the Black Sea has been circulated in various federal departments in recent months, several people said. Exxon is arguing that it deserves a waiver there because under its deal with Rosneft its exploration rights in the Black Sea will expire if it doesn’t act, and because some of its top foreign competitors aren’t similarly restricted. It is unusual for a company to seek a waiver based purely on future business prospects, according to former U.S. officials. American companies often seek waivers from sanctions citing humanitarian, trade or operational issues, the officials said.” http://on.wsj.com/2oSk1uq -- @SenJohnMcCain at 4:09 p.m.: “Are they crazy? @WSJ: ‘Exxon Seeks U.S. Waiver to Resume #Russia Oil Venture’”BEHIND THE SCENES -- “Trump Adviser’s Visit to Moscow Got the F.B.I.’s Attention,” by NYT’s Scott Shane, Mark Mazzetti and Adam Goldman: “Ever since F.B.I. investigators discovered in 2013 that a Russian spy was trying to recruit an American businessman named Carter Page, the bureau maintained an occasional interest in Mr. Page. So when he became a foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign last year and gave a Russia-friendly speech at a prestigious Moscow institute, it soon caught the bureau’s attention. That trip last July was a catalyst for the F.B.I. investigation into connections between Russia and President Trump’s campaign, according to current and former law enforcement and intelligence officials. ... Richard Guerin, who was in his academy class and remains in regular touch ... said that, ever since Mr. Page’s Navy days, when he drove a black Mercedes, his friend had reveled in lavish spending that sometimes seemed to exceed his means.” http://nyti.ms/2pFkZtUSPORTS BLINK -- The Wizards won, and are up 2-0 in their series against the Atlanta Hawks … Capitals beat the Maple Leafs in Toronto to even up their series 2-2 … Nats beat the Braves with grand slams by Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper. JAKE TAPPER PROFILE -- GQ: “CNN’s Jake Tapper Is the Realest Man in ‘Fake News,’” by Taffy Brodesser-Akner: “In just the few weeks I spent with him, Tapper was invited onto Colbert and Conan and Trevor Noah. ‘I think I had a fairly good reputation before this year,’ he says carefully, trying to remind me that he’s been doing this particular job since 2013. ‘But I think that people are engaged in what’s going on like never before. People can’t stop watching, both supporters of the president and opponents of the president.’” http://bit.ly/2oNFt5k AT LEAST THEY’RE EXERCISING! -- “Activity Spotted at North Korea Nuclear Test Site: Volleyball,” by NYT’s William J. Broad: “Analysts who examine satellite images of North Korea reported on Wednesday that they had spotted some unexpected activity at the country’s nuclear test site: active volleyball games in three separate areas. The surprising images were taken on Sunday as tensions between the United States and North Korea seemed to spike. The Korean Peninsula pulsed with news that the North was preparing for its sixth atomic detonation and that American warships had been ordered into the Sea of Japan as a deterrent, even though the ships turned out to have sailed in the opposite direction. The volleyball games, played in the middle of that international crisis, were probably intended to send a message, analysts said, as the North Koreans are aware that the nuclear test site is under intense scrutiny. But what meaning the North wanted the games to convey is unclear.” http://nyti.ms/2oY52RCWHAT JONES DAY IS READING -- “Trump’s campaign legal fees top $4 million,” by Ken Vogel: “During his campaign, Donald Trump promised to pay the legal bills of supporters who beat up protestors at his rallies, but a POLITICO analysis found that Trump’s campaign hasn’t always paid its own legal bills in a timely or transparent fashion. The analysis of court and campaign filings found that Trump’s campaign committee is still spending heavily to defend against ongoing civil lawsuits alleging assault, incitement, threats and other illegal behavior by the president, his supporters and staff. But in at least four ongoing cases, Trump’s campaign had yet to make a publicly disclosed payment to the law firms representing it, paid months late or paid in tiny amounts that don’t appear commensurate with the amount of work performed by the firms.” http://politi.co/2pFpggWWAPO’S MANUEL ROIG-FRANZIA in OAKLAND PARK, FLORIDA -- “Roger Stone helped Donald Trump get elected president - now he’s helping himself: Richard Nixon’s dirty trickster is back in the limelight and knee-deep in scandal — just how he likes it.” http://wapo.st/2ou4A9YHOT IN FOGGY BOTTOM -- “Three Months Into Trump Presidency, Obama’s Israel Adviser Leaves White House: Yael Lempert was in charge of Israeli-Palestinian policy at the National Security Council and agreed to stay on for three months to help the Trump administration,” by Ha’aretz’s Amir Tibon and Barak Ravid: “Yael Lempert, an American career diplomat who was in charge of Israeli-Palestinian policy at the National Security Council under the Obama administration, is set to leave the White House within weeks after prolonging her tenure by three months to help the Trump administration craft its policy on the issue.“Lempert made it clear to the White House that she wants to leave her post in the NSC and go back to the State Department, where she had made most of her career in government, Haaretz has learned. Lempert wanted to do that right after the end of the presidential transition period, but senior officials in President Donald Trump’s administration -- including the president’s special envoy to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Jason Greenblatt -- asked her to stay on for a few more weeks, which turned into three-and-a-half months.” http://bit.ly/2pFWmjBWEST COAST WATCH -- “Here’s how Rep. Darrell Issa has moved toward the center since he almost lost in November,” by L.A. Times’ Sarah Wire: “The nine-term Vista Republican has made multiple moves that indicate the conservative watchdog during the Obama era is moving to moderate his image as Democrats target his seat for 2018. He’s already drawn two Democratic opponents. Does Issa think he’s moved toward the center? ‘Nothing could be further from the truth,’ he said by phone, calling the idea ‘bullshit.’ … Here are some ways Issa seems to have moved to the center since November. He’s been breaking with his party on Trump. … He’s been hesitant on Affordable Care Act repeal efforts. … He’s been highlighting time he spends with local Democrats. … He’s been meeting with the protesters outside his office, and trying to persuade them he’s not ultraconservative.” http://lat.ms/2ou3v1USHOW ME THE MONEY -- “Out-of-state money floods potential Senate race in WV,” by the Charleston Gazette-Mail’s Jake Zuckerman: “Money from outside the Mountain State is pouring into West Virginia’s Senate race, with more likely to appear before the 2018 elections. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., has received more money from individual donors in Texas ($95,600), Washington, D.C. ($33,000), New York ($32,300), Massachusetts ($22,500), Virginia ($19,700), Maryland ($10,700) and Connecticut ($10,400) than West Virginia.” http://bit.ly/2oNtVzeHMM -- “How did Cuomo make $783,000 on memoir that sold 3,200 copies?” by the Buffalo News’ Tom Precious: “Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo reported his income last year more than doubled from the previous year, thanks to another round of royalty payments on a 2014 HarperCollins memoir that saw lackluster sales. In all, Cuomo has made $783,000 from HarperCollins for his book. The book sold 3,200 copies since it was published in the fall of 2014, according to tracking company NPD BookScan. That works out to royalty payments to Cuomo of $245 per book. ‘All Things Possible: Setbacks and Success in Politics and Life’ had an original list price of $29.99. New copies of the hardcover book were being sold Monday on Amazon for $13.05.” http:[email protected], senior producer of “Morning Joe”: “He made $245 per book and declined interview requests to discuss the book. Amazing.”OBAMA ALUMNI -- “Former NFL player Colin Allred launches campaign to unseat Pete Sessions,” by the Dallas Morning News’ Gromer Jeffers Jr.: “Civil rights attorney Colin Allred has launched a campaign to unseat Rep. Pete Sessions of Dallas. But first the former NFL player will have to run in a potentially crowded Democratic primary for the 32nd Congressional District. ... Allred played professional football for the Tennessee Titans before opting for a career in law. He was a special assistant to the Housing Department under President Barack Obama and Housing Secretary Julian Castro.” http://bit.ly/2piwDOBCOMING ATTRACTIONS -- “Former Hillary Clinton speechwriter set to publish an insider account,” by WaPo’s Ron Charles: “Lissa Muscatine, a co-owner of Politics & Prose Bookstore in Washington, is finally ready to tell her story about working with Hillary Clinton. Her upcoming book, titled ‘Hillaryland,’ will describe ‘the 25-year journey of Hillary and her closest advisors at the intersection of politics and gender dynamics,’ according to a statement released by Penguin Press.” http://wapo.st/2oSmoxs-- PAGE SIX: “Hillary camp scrambling to find out who leaked embarrassing info,” by Emily Smith: “Dennis Cheng, the finance director of Clinton’s presidential campaign, has been sending out messages to determine where the leaks come from. One source said[:] ... ‘Dennis has been texting prominent campaign staffers, asking who talked. He’s on a witch hunt to find out who talked to save their own skin, throwing Hillary and her campaign manager Robby Mook under the bus.’” http://pge.sx/2opA81n MEDIAWATCH -- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- CBS News’ VP and DC bureau chief Chris Isham is announcing today that Nancy Cordes has been promoted to chief congressional correspondent. Nancy has been CBS News’ congressional correspondent since 2008, most recently travelling with the Clinton campaign in 2016. Other recent staffing changes at CBS News include Margaret Brennan’s move from foreign affairs correspondent to White House and senior foreign affairs correspondent earlier this year.SPOTTED: Harold Ford Jr. at the Trump Hotel Wednesday night ... Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) at the Reno International Airport yesterday morning holding up the TSA Pre-Check line and then being sent to secondary screening. Pic http://bit.ly/2oSuoyxABOUT LAST NIGHT -- Richard Engel was the keynote speaker last night at the Anthony Shadid Award dinner presented by the University of Wisconsin Center for Journalism Ethics: “When I first started out in journalism -- I started 20 years ago -- the first name I heard was Anthony Shadid. ... There is a small community of people. The same 40 people who you always run into in Gaza, in Tripoli, in Benghazi or wherever you happen to be and Anthony was always there. ... [H]e was always humble and very cool. He was a very cool guy. He never raised his voice. And a great reporter. So it is a shame when you see someone from that group, someone who was a real centerpiece of that group go down, go down terribly -- in the prime of his life.” Anthony’s scholarship fund http://bit.ly/2pFtMipOUT AND ABOUT IN NYC -- Last night in Manhattan, Mike Bloomberg and Carl Pope celebrated the publication of their new book “Climate of Hope: How Cities, Businesses, and Citizens Can Save the Planet” at Bloomberg Philanthropies. $16.45 on Amazon http://amzn.to/2pFwJg1 SPOTTED: Emma Bloomberg, Jane Bryant Quinn, Richard Cohen, Patricia Duff, Annette de la Renta, Peter Grauer, Richard Haas, Patti Harris, Mary Ann Hitt, Henry and Nancy Kissinger, Andy Lack, Ralph Lauren, Chris Licht, Stu Loeser, Beth Mazzeo, Lynn Nesbit, Patty Newburger, Katherine Oliver, Dr. Mehmet Oz and Lisa Oz, George Pataki, Steve Rattner, David Rhodes, Len Riggio, Charlie Rose, Jason Schechter, Kevin Sheekey, David Shipley, Ben Smith, Justin Smith, Jerry Speyer, David Stern, Gay Talese, Diana Taylor, Sandy Weill, David Westin and Matt Winkler.TRANSITIONS – ALEX BYERS starts Monday at the Glover Park Group as a director of strategic communications, working on tech, media, telecom and other issues. He’s spent the seven years at POLITICO, including almost five as a tech reporter. ... Preston Maddock has been named communications director for the 2018 reelection campaign of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). He most recently was communications director for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, press secretary for Alison Lundergan Grimes’ 2014 Kentucky senatorial campaign and is an American Bridge and OFA alum ... Helen Kalla has started as press manager at Indivisible Project. She is a Clinton campaign and Capitol Hill alum. ...... Tyler Hernandez has been named deputy communications director for Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.). He previously was deputy communications director for the House Committee on Education and the Workforce. ... Ari Goldberg has left the Project On Government Oversight (POGO) to become VP of communications at First Focus, an advocacy organization for children. ... Nicholas Bailey has been named a marketing campaign manager at Amazon Web Services; he previously was digital director at the American Action Forum.OBAMA ALUMNI -- Tusk Montgomery Philanthropies, an anti-hunger advocacy organization, has named Sheila Nix as its new president. Most recently, she was the chief of staff to Dr. Jill Biden and a deputy assistant to President Obama. ... Charles Luftig is joining hedge fund Bridgewater Associates as policy and standards lead next week. He previously served in the Obama White House as OMB deputy general counsel and senior adviser to Deputy National Security Advisor Avril Haines. He also served at the NSC and DOJ. (h/t #Suitestaff44)... Juan S. Gonzalez joined The Cohen Group this week as associate VP and is taking over the firm’s Latin America practice. He previously was special advisor on Latin America and the Caribbean to VP Joe Biden from 2013-2015 and deputy assistant secretary of State for Western hemisphere affairs last year and is an NSC alum. ... Robert Silvers, formerly the Assistant Secretary for Cyber Policy at DHS, has joined Paul Hastings LLP, as a partner in the white collar defense and privacy and cybersecurity practices. http://bit.ly/2pip5Ly BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Ally Schmeiser, a partner with Sentinel Strategic Advisors, kicked off her 30th year celebrating with a birthday trip to Bogotá and Cartagena, Colombia with friends, including Erin Lardy, Sarah Jorgensen, Ben Texter, Nic Breeding, David Black and Boyce Adams (hat tip: Nic)BIRTHDAYS: WSJ White House correspondent Carol E. Lee, a Politico alum ... Texas Tribune CEO Evan Smith is 51 ... The Atlantic’s Molly Ball, the pride of Denver (hubby tip: the talented David Kihara, Politico.com’s quiet hero) ... Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) is 81 ... retired Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens is 97 ... Marc Rotenberg, president and exec. director of the Electronic Privacy Information Center, is 57 ... Politico’s Sarah Ferris, alum of The Hill (h/t Zach Montellaro) ... Colin Reed, exec. dir. of America Rising, a Scott Brown alum and the pride of Norwell, Mass., celebrating a day early by seeing his beloved Patriots at the White House yesterday (h/t Ryan Williams) ... former Rep. Lee Hamilton (D-Ind.) is 86 … Brett McGurk, the pride of West Hartford, is 44 ... Jennifer Griffin, national security correspondent for Fox News ... Lee Moak of The Moak Group (h/t Heather Podesta) ... Cosmo editor in chief Joanna Coles (h/t Tammy) ... Politico’s Mel Leonor and David Siders ... Daniela Kate Plattner ... Trevor K. Railey ... Washington Examiner’s Kyle Feldscher (h/t girlfriend Jacqueline Klimas) ... Jon Daugherty of Raymond James ... Chukwudi Motanya of SunTrust Bank ... Emily Rodriguez, senior gov’t relations and comms. manager for the National Democratic Institute ... Ethan Susseles is 26 … former Rep. Trey Radel (R-Fla.) is 41 ... former Rep. Dan Benishek (R-Mich.) is 65 ... ... Eric Bovim, managing director of SIGNAL Group is 41 ... Melissa Manson, director at Hamilton Place Strategies ... Patrick Collins, SVP for finance and administration of LCV ... Heather Foster, VP of Finn Partners and an Obama WH alum ... Yaniv Rivlin, senior program officer at the Charles and Lynn Schusterman Family Foundation ... Alex Berman, associate at Tishman Realty Corporation (h/ts Jewish Insider) ... Suzanne Struglinski of the National Press Club ... Karen McAfee of the House Ways & Means Cmte ... Jamie Benson, associate producer for the Bill Press Show (h/t Peter Ogburn) ... Lindsey Mask, founder and executive director of Ladies America/Ladies International Foundation (h/t Jon Haber) ... Molly Born of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette ... Mary Springer ... Manny Ericta ... Denise Gitsham, principal of SVN Public Relations ... Shane Wolfe … Zachary Baum ... Jim Heath ... Jacqueline Harris … Melanie Roe … Michael Layman … Rebecca Kasper … Julie Mason Ziemba … Michael Layman … Rebecca Kasper … Leon Harris … Jessica Kamen … Michael Frohlich … Dennis Smith ... Steve Brandes ... Parker Waddell ... Karen White ... Alexa Bradley ... Nicholl Caruso (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)… George Takei is 8-0 ... actor Ryan O’Neal is 76 ... Carmen Electra is 45 (h/ts AP)

20 апреля, 05:23

Interpol issues red notice for Chinese property tycoon

The Interpol has issued a red notice for Chinese business tycoon Guo Wengui, who is linked to a number of the country's major corruption cases, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

06 февраля 2016, 11:56

ФРС на Украине: идеальное порабощение

Глава Федрезерва Бен Бернанке сделал все, чтобы вызвать в "незалежной" хаос

03 декабря 2015, 06:06

Ливия. Приглашение в бездну

Из огня да в полымя. Так кратко можно описать последние события в Ливии. Запад взялся за примирение двух правительств, существующих в стране, но последствия этой инициативы могут ввергнуть Ливию в ещё больший хаос и окончательно уничтожить когда-то процветавшее государство.

26 октября 2015, 15:30

Как работать с Россией в Сирии ("Foreign Affairs", США)

Трудно вести войну, когда твои союзники не могут договориться, кто враг. Именно с такой ситуацией Соединенные Штаты столкнулись в Сирии. Вашингтон в попытках создать коалицию для борьбы вынужден уговаривать союзников из Персидского залива, которые хотят воевать с сирийским лидером Башаром аль-Асадом, но не с радикальными исламистами. Ему приходится иметь дело с Турцией, которая выступает против Асада и радикальных исламистов, но воевать хочет преимущественно с курдами. Еще один союзник США Израиль нерешительно смотрит на бурлящий водоворот своих врагов и, как кажется, готов вмешаться лишь в том случае, если появятся серьезные угрозы. И наконец, Германия желает вооружать курдов, а американский спецназ уже взаимодействует с ними. Во всей этой путанице неудивительно, что результаты борьбы с самопровозглашенным «Исламским государством» (ИГИЛ) у коалиции сегодня - весьма неутешительные.

22 апреля 2015, 14:22

Китай: правила дорожного движения для Шелкового пути ("Foreign Affairs", США)

Пекин задумался о евразийской интеграции Пока мир внимательно следит за агрессивным поведением Китая в восточных морях, китайские лидеры глядят на запад. В конце марта китайская Комиссия по национальному развитию и реформам совместно с министерством иностранных дел и министерством торговли подготовила подробный проект «Экономического пояса Шелкового пути» и «Морского Шелкового пути 21 века». Этот проект зачастую сокращенно называют «Один пояс, один путь». В случае успеха амбициозных планов Пекина, Китай станет ключевой движущей силой экономической и дипломатической евразийской интеграции. «Один пояс, один путь» призывает страны Азии, Европы, Ближнего Востока и Африки координировать дипломатические усилия, стандартизировать и объединять торговые площадки, зоны свободной торговли и торговые процедуры, интегрировать финансовую сферу с опорой на юань и развивать международные культурные и образовательные программы. Иногда его называют «китайским планом Маршалла», но китайские власти не согласны с такими сравнениями. С их точки зрения, они объединяют Евразию, а не проводят в ней новые границы и стремятся к экономическому росту, а не к политическому влиянию. Однако это не отменяет опасности, связанной с усилиями Китая: если Пекин не сможет найти баланс между инвестициями и дипломатией, с одной стороны, и поиском политического влияния, с другой, он может оказаться втянутым в конфликты, к которым он не готов. В дальний путь Хотя точная конфигурация «Одного пояса, одного пути» в разных вариантах выглядит по-разному, в целом проект предусматривает, что сухопутный «пояс» из автомобильных и железных дорог, трубопроводов и телекоммуникационных сетей должен будет связать Китай, Центральную Азию, Ближний Восток, Европу и Россию. Морской «путь», в свою очередь, пройдет от берегов Китая по Южно-Китайскому морю, Индийскому океану, Красному морю и Средиземному морю (через Суэцкий канал) с остановками в Африке. В основе «Одного пояса, одного пути» лежит давняя идея китайских ученых о продвижении на Запад в ответ на американский «стратегический поворот к Азии». Название двойного проекта Пекина отсылает к еще боле давнему прошлому — к временам Шелкового пути — и к исторической роли Китая в торговле между Европой и Азией. Китайский президент Си Цзиньпин впервые официально заявил о проекте «пояса» в сентябре 2013 года в Казахстане, а о проекте «пути» — в октябре того же года в Индонезии. Деньги на проекты пойдут из пресловутого Азиатского банка инфраструктурных инвестиций (АБИИ), капитал которого составляет 50 миллиардов долларов, Фонда нового Шелкового пути с капиталом в 40 миллиардов долларов и Нового банка развития, созданного странами БРИКС. По расчетам китайских властей, их программы затронут 4,4 миллиарда человек в 65 странах, а объем торговли Китая со странами-участниками может за десятилетие дойти до 2,5 триллиона долларов в год. South China Morning Post назвала этот проект в своей редакционной статье «самым крупным и масштабным в истории страны». Стратегия «Один пояс, один путь» должна помочь Китаю достичь ряда внутриполитических целей, соответствующих «китайской мечте» Си о национальном обновлении. Главная из этих целей — укрепить китайскую экономику, дав выход излишкам промышленного производства. Сейчас, когда Пекин старается охладить перегретый инфраструктурный сектор, не создавая при этом массовой безработицы, планы, которые позволяют перенаправить вызываемый притоком инвестиций рост за пределы Китая, особенно актуальны. Внутри китайских границ проект фокусируется на сравнительно слаборазвитых западных и южных регионах. Власти надеются, что экономический рост и рост занятости в них помогут снизить межэтническую напряженность — а также улучшат ситуацию с занятостью в других регионах. Во внешней торговле Китай также рассчитывает получить выгоду от валютных операций, подкрепляющих статус юаня как глобальной валюты. Помимо этого, энергетические сделки должны будут гарантировать Китаю бесперебойные поставки энергоносителей на фоне растущего спроса. Вдобавок сухопутная энергетическая инфраструктура сможет ослабить опасную зависимость от морских поставок. К тому же развитые экономики по-прежнему растут медленно, и Китай рассматривает азиатские развивающиеся страны как удобные — и географически близкие — источники роста. «Один пояс, один путь» также служит внешнеполитическим целям, укрепляя отношения Китая с соседями. Двойной проект расширит связи Пекина с ведущими развивающимися странами и сможет послужить основой для новой международной системы, в центре которой будет находиться Китай. Рост значения Китая заставил Пекин смириться — пусть и неохотно — с международными обязательствами, а теперь торговый проект позволит Си начать воплощать в жизнь идею «сообщества общей судьбы», подразумевающую совместный рост азиатских экономик в ближайшие десятилетия. Укрепление двусторонних связей со странами, лежащими вдоль «пути» и «пояса», может помочь Китаю создать сеть незападных международных организаций, в которых он сможет играть основную — если не преобладающую — роль. Такие структуры, как Шанхайская организация сотрудничества и Совещание по взаимодействию и мерам доверия в Азии дадут Пекину возможность обрести дипломатический вес за пределами отношений с Вашингтоном. Препятствия на пути Сейчас «Один пояс, один путь», по-видимому, постепенно набирает обороты. У проекта есть серьезная финансовая база, которую ему обеспечивают, в первую очередь, хваленый китайский АБИИ и поддержка китайских политических и экономических элит. Тем не менее, на пути китайских амбиций по-прежнему лежат определенные препятствия. Хотя попытки заполнить инфраструктурный вакуум Азии (в инфраструктуру в этом регионе необходимо вложить до 2020 года восемь триллионов долларов) можно только приветствовать, прогрессу могут помешать недостаточно жесткие правила кредитования. Если страны-участники потратят связанное с «Одним поясом, одним путем» финансирование на бессмысленные или нерациональные проекты и не смогут расплатиться с долгами, пострадают китайские капиталовложения. Вдобавок, если с этими проектами будут связаны скандалы в областях экологии или прав человека, может пострадать имидж Китая на международной арене. В морской сфере усилия Китая по модернизации портовой инфраструктуры вдоль пути и созданию зон свободной торговли должны увеличить торговый потенциал стран-участников, однако пока не ясно, как «морской Шелковый путь» повлияет на существующие судоходные линии. Более того, хотя китайский министр иностранных дел Ван И (Wang Yi) подчеркивал, что «Один пояс, один путь» не следует считать «геополитическим инструментом», Китай, скорее всего, попробует превратить экономическое сотрудничество в источник политического влияния. Для этого Пекину потребуется преодолеть ряд серьезных преград — таких, как конкуренция в Центральной Азии, Южной Азии и на Ближнем Востоке со стороны Индии, России и Соединенных Штатов. Российский проект Евразийского союза, экономически объединяющего бывшие советские республики, напрямую конкурирует с интеграционной стратегией Китая — несмотря на улучшающиеся китайско-российские отношения. У Индии китайские планы также вызывают опасения, так как проекты Пекина могут подорвать ее программы «Действия на Востоке» и «Связь с Центральной Азией». Кроме того Индию тревожит расширяющаяся деятельность Китая в Индийском океане — особенно в портах, которые могут послужить опорными точками для операций китайского военного флота. Хотя Соединенные Штаты сейчас уменьшают свою роль в Центральной Азии по мере ухода из Афганистана, китайское присутствие в Евразии, на Индийском океане и на Ближнем Востоке все равно будет требовать от Пекина постоянных поисков баланса между конкуренцией и сотрудничеством. Китайцам придется работать совместно с соседями и мировыми державами — вместо того, чтобы бороться с ними. Успех «Одного пояса, одного пути» во многом будет зависеть от готовности капризных региональных и местных лидеров сотрудничать. Многие лидеры, особенно в Центральной Азии и на Ближнем Востоке, опираются на многовековой опыт стравливания иностранных держав друг с другом ради личных политических и финансовых выгод. Скажем, на фоне нарастающего межконфессионального конфликта на Ближнем Востоке китайским лидерам будет трудно совместить давние связи между Китаем и Ираном и новые отношения с суннитскими государствами во главе с Саудовской Аравией. Еще один характерный пример — недавнее решение Шри-Ланки пересмотреть более двух десятков проектов, поддерживаемых Китаем. Вдобавок существуют негосударственные субъекты, порождающие дополнительные политические риски, к которыми Китай не привык. Талибы в Афганистане, «Исламское государство» (ИГИЛ) в Ираке и в Сирии и хуситы в Йемене угрожают китайским капиталовложениям и ключевым перевалочным пунктам на будущих торговых маршрутах. «Один пояс, один путь» станет серьезной проверкой на прочность для внешнеполитической доктрины и внешнеполитического потенциала Пекина. Риторика Китая с ее «взаимовыгодными решениями», «консенсусами» и «невмешательством» может не выдержать столкновения с суровой реальностью, требующей защищать китайских граждан и китайские инвестиции. Опыт китайской миротворческой деятельности в Судане наглядно демонстрирует, что Китай готов идти на военные операции, когда речь идет о защите его финансовых интересов. Китайское стремление не вмешиваться исчезло, когда Судан начал распадаться и под угрозой оказались нефтяные инвестиции Китая. В итоге Пекин был вынужден выступить дипломатическим посредником и разместить в стране свой миротворческий контингент. Если Китай перейдет от простой защиты своих вложений к более широкой геополитической деятельности и начнет активнее вмешиваться в происходящее в других странах, это может окончательно убедить соседей в наличии у него империалистических амбиций. Именно так в последние годы развивались отношения Пекина с соседями по Восточно-Китайскому и Южно-Китайскому морям. Не трудно представить себе нечто подобное и на западном направлении. На оперативном уровне обширные глобальные интересы Китая могут поставить новые задачи перед его растущими, но неопытными вооруженными силами. Недавняя эвакуация китайских граждан из Йемена стала важной вехой: это была первая успешная военная операция по вывозу китайцев и граждан других стран из зоны кризиса. Еще в 2011 году Народно-освободительная армия не смогла осуществить аналогичную операцию в Ливии. В дипломатической сфере Китай явно претендует на глобальную роль. Он пытается стать посредником в афганском урегулировании, организовывая переговоры с талибами, и помочь израильско-палестинскому диалогу, предлагая мирный план из пяти пунктов. Впрочем, пока все эти усилия остаются символическими — у страны до сих пор не получилось добиться подлинных дипломатических побед ни по одному из вопросов, которыми она занималась. В целом во внешней политике Китай может оказаться в парадоксальном положении: пытаясь обеспечить себе стратегическую глубину на западном направлении, он может чрезмерно — и преждевременно — растянуть свои силы, оказаться втянутым во множество конфликтов и столкнуться с проблемами, с которыми он пока не готов справляться. Необходимость превратить «Один пояс, один путь» из амбициозных историко-картографических построений в рабочую экономическую и дипломатическую стратегию и — возможно — в инструмент геополитического влияния, станет испытанием для внешнеполитических возможностей Китая во всех возможных аспектах. Путь на запад может оказаться долгим. Автор: Джейкоб Стоукс (Jacob Stokes),  Источинк: ИноСМИ 22.04.2015 VK.init({apiId: 4591053, onlyWidgets: true}); VK.Widgets.Like("vk_like", {type: "mini", height: 20 }); Tweet апрель 2015