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Foreign Affairs
Foreign Affairs
«Foreign Affairs» (Фо́рин аффе́рс) — американский журнал по тематике международных отношений и внешней политики США, выходящий шесть раз в год. Издатель — Совет по международным отношениям. Журнал считается наиболее авторитетным в вопросах внешней политики США. Ж ...

«Foreign Affairs» (Фо́рин аффе́рс) — американский журнал по тематике международных отношений и внешней политики США, выходящий шесть раз в год. Издатель — Совет по международным отношениям. Журнал считается наиболее авторитетным в вопросах внешней политики США.

Журнал выходит с 1922 года; основателем и первым редактором (до 1927 года) был Арчибальд Кэри Кулидж.

Тираж журнала рос:

  • 1922 год — 5 тысяч экземпляров;
  • 1959 год — 27 тысяч;
  • 1963 год — 57 тысяч;
  • 1976 год — 72,5 тысячи;
  • 2014 год — 170 тысяч

Позиция по отношению к СССР

Уже первый номер содержал статью самого Кулиджа «Россия после Генуи и Гааги», которая после анализа новой экономической политики и дипломатических усилий большевистского государства высказывала сомнения в долговечности текущего курса большевиков и предлагала «четыре очевидных возможности» развития (контрреволюция, экономическая реставрация капитализма, раскол партии большевиков с возвратом к жёсткой коммунистической идеологии и рост экономических проблем, в результате которых страна «впадет в анархию, развалившись на куски»). За первые 50 лет существования в журнале были опубликованы 220 статей по советской тематике (почти по одной статье в каждом номере). По утверждению Р. С. Овинникова, «ни одна из них не была дружелюбной» Вики

 

Foreign Affairs — семнадцатый эпизод девятого сезона мультсериала «Гриффины».

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/issues/2015/94/6

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26 марта, 14:26

The Ugly History Behind Trump’s Attacks on Civil Servants

President Trump’s criticisms of government workers have something in common with Joe McCarthy’s.

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25 марта, 13:55

UK report: ‘Anecdotal’ evidence of Gulen role in Turkey coup attempt

While there is “anecdotal and circumstantial” evidence that individual members of the Gulen movement were involved in a failed coup attempt in Turkey last year, hard proof was difficult to find, according to a UK parliamentary report. Since the July 15 coup attempt, Turkey has accused Pennsylvania-based Fethullah Gulen of being behind a push to overthrow President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The inquiry by the Foreign Affairs Committee also points out opportunities in the UK’s growing relationship with Turkey. Al Jazeera’s Renee Odeh reports. - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: http://www.aljazeera.com/

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25 марта, 12:44

Signature of the Treaty of Amsterdam

On 2 October 1997, EU Ministers for Foreign Affairs gathered in the Royal Palace, in Amsterdam, to sign the Treaty of Amsterdam. The main objectives of the Amsterdam Treaty included the construction of a more social Europe and the creation of more jobs, strengthening security through a closer cooperation between the European Union and the Eastern and Central European countries, and the reform of the European institutions to prepare for enlargement.

24 марта, 22:53

Help Wanted: National Security and State Department Reporter

TNI Staff Security, The National Interest, a print and online magazine focusing on international affairs, foreign policy, national security, domestic politics and more is searching for a national security reporter to join our online editorial team. This position is based in Washington, D.C. This exciting position entails writing daily news articles concentrating on the State Department and National Security Council from a realist and restraint-oriented perspective in foreign affairs. This position requires the following skills: • Reporting and writing on defense and national security issues on a daily basis. • Covering key players in the foreign policy establishment. A proven record and extensive contacts are a must. • Ability to break news and cover emerging events. • Experience in journalism (2 years or more) or online writing/blogging, a background in defense and national-security writing and familiarity with tools used in web production will particularly stand out on an application. • Successful candidates will also have the ability to write clearly, intelligently, and thoughtfully keeping in mind short deadlines and fast turnaround times. • A bachelor’s degree in one of the following disciplines: political science, history, and/or international affairs. A master’s degree in one of the above is highly desirable.  All applications must submit the following: cover letter, résumé/CV, and a writing sample of 500 words or more to: [email protected] Read full article

24 марта, 19:55

Protection of Cultural Heritage in Armed Conflicts (France, Italy, UNESCO) - SC Media Stakeout

Informal comments to the media by H.E. Ms. Audrey Azoulay, Minister of Culture and Communication of France, H.E. Mr. Vincenzo Amendola, Under-Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Italy, and Ms. Irina Bokova, Director-General of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), following the Security Council debate (24 March 2017) on the Resolution on the Protection of Cultural Heritage in Armed Conflicts. [In French and English]

23 марта, 12:03

MiG Alley: How the air war over Korea became a bloodbath for the West

The fog of war leads to all sorts of claims and counterclaims. Over time as military historians are able to get their hands on declassified war records from all sides involved, we get a more realistic picture of what really happened. The 1950-53 Korean War was unique because most of the aerial combat was between Russian and American pilots rather than among the Koreans. The conflict is also remarkable for the wild and preposterous claims the U.S. military made during and after the conflict. In western publications of the 1960s the Americans claimed the ratio between the shot-down American and Russian MiGs was 1:14. That is, for every U.S., British and Australian jet lost in combat, the Russians were said to have lost 14 planes. During the next two decades as the war hysteria ebbed, the ratio was revised down to 1:10 but never below 1:8. The Cold War: From Churchill to Yeltsin When the Russians declassified their archives after the end of the Cold War, and ex-Soviet pilots were freely able to present their side of the story, the West’s story could no longer hold up. Former fighter pilot Sergei Kramarenko writes in his gripping book, ‘Air Combat Over the Eastern Front and Korea’ that according to the most realistic (western) researchers, “the ratio of jet fighters shot down in engagements between the Soviet and American Air Forces was close to 1:1”. But even this new parity accepted by western writers and military historians is nowhere near the truth. In reality, the air war over Korea was a bloodbath for the western air forces. It is a story that is well-hidden for obvious reasons – pride, prestige and the traditional western resistance to admit that the Russians won. By a wide margin. Russians rush to Korea Soviet leader Joseph Stalin had no intention of entering the war in Korea. World War II was too recent a memory and Moscow did not want a conflict with the West that could lead to another global war. So initially it was just China that militarily supported the North Koreans. But as the western armies – nominally under UN command – threatened to overrun the entire peninsula and seeing the quality and shortage of Chinese pilots, Stalin took the decision to involve his air force in the war. Is Russia helping China build hypersonic weapons? However, in order to keep Moscow’s involvement a secret, Stalin imposed certain limitations on the Soviet pilots. One, they would fly under the markings of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force or North Korean Peoples' Army Air Force. Secondly, while in the air, the pilots would communicate only in Mandarin or Korean; the use of Russian was banned. And finally, Russian pilots would under no circumstances approach the 38th Parallel (the border between the two Koreas) or the coastline. This was to prevent their capture by the Americans. The last restriction was crippling – it meant Russian pilots were prevented from giving chase to enemy aircraft. Since aircraft are at their most vulnerable while fleeing (because they have either run out ammunition, are low on fuel, or experiencing technical trouble), it meant Russian pilots were denied easy kills. Hundreds of western fighters were able to escape into South Korea because the Russians turned back as they neared the coastline or the border. Despite such limitations, Russia came out on top. According to Karamarenko, during the 32 months that Russian forces were in Korea, they downed 1250 enemy planes. “Of that number the (Russian) corps’ anti-aircraft artillery shot down 153 planes and the pilots killed 1097,” he writes. In comparison, the Soviets lost 319 MiGs and Lavochkin La-11s. Karamarenko adds: “We were sure that the corps’ pilots had shot down a lot more enemy planes than the 1097 credited but many of those had fallen into the sea of crashed during landing in South Korea. Many of them had returned him so badly damaged they simply had to be written off, for it would have been impossible to fix them up.” Prelude to Black Tuesday The Korean War produced some of the most enthralling dogfights seen in the history of modern air combat. A lot of the action took place in "MiG Alley" – the name given by western pilots to the northwestern portion of North Korea, where the Yalu River empties into the Yellow Sea. It became the site of numerous dogfights. It was the site of the first large-scale jet-vs-jet air battles between Russian MiG-15s and U.S. F-86 Sabres. The turning point of the war came in October 1951. American aerial reconnaissance had detected construction work on 18 airfields in North Korea. The largest of these was in Naamsi, which would have concrete runways and be capable of staging jet aircraft. How a Soviet pilot’s defection to Japan benefitted MiG Yuri Sutiagin and Igor Seidov explain in the exhaustive book ‘MiG Menace Over Korea’ the implications of the runway expansion program. “The new airfields, located deep in North Korean territory, would permit the transfer of fresh MiG-15 unites to them, which would expand the area of operation of these dangerous fighters and jeopardize the operation of the UN forces. In the event, the so-called MiG Alley would extend all the way down to the 38th Parallel, and potentially expose the UN ground forces to continuous air attacks.” On October 23, 1951 – now known as Black Tuesday – the western air forces cobbled together a vast armada of 200 jet fighters (F-86 Sabres, F-84s, F-80s and British-built Gloster Meteor IVs) and nearly two dozen B-29 Superfortress bombers (the same type that dropped the atomic bombs on Japan). The mission profile of this concentrated attack was to disrupt the flow of supplies to Korean and Chinese forces and to put the airbases at Naamsi and Taechon in North Korea out of action. To counter this threat the Russians organised two fighter air divisions. The 303rd comprising fifty-eight MiG-15s formed the first echelon and was assigned to attack the primary group of enemy bombers and fighter-bombers. The 324th division had twenty-six MiG-15s and comprised the second echelon. It was responsible for reinforcing the battle and covering the 303rd’s exit from battle. Go for the Big Ones Focus and discipline were critical to successfully tackling the bomber threat. The Russian strategy was to ignore the fighter escorts and go straight for the slower Superfortresses. As the MiGs were heading to clash with the Superfortresses they caught sight of a group of slow British Meteors. Some of the Russian pilots were tempted by these enticing targets, but commander Nikolai Volkov said: “We’re going after the big ones.” Like orca whales circling around and then swallowing their prey, the MiGs tore into the B-29 formations. Some of the Russian pilots attacked the American bombers vertically from below, seeing the B-29s explode in front of their eyes. It was almost a turkey shoot, as the crew – 12 to 13 airmen – of the stricken bombers bailed out one by one. The Russians claimed the destruction of ten B-29s – the highest percentage of US bombers ever lost on a major mission – while losing one MiG. However, Kramarenko says some pilots claimed that twenty B-29s were downed in the week of October 22-27. Plus the USAF lost four F-84 escort fighters. MiG-15 in hangar 1953 / Wikipedia The Americans admit to three bombers downed in the air, while another five B-29s and one F-84 were seriously damaged and later written off. “Even so, these were quite painful losses for the American command,” write Sutiagin and Seidov. Commander Lev Shchukin recalls Black Tuesday: “They were trying to intimidate us. They were perhaps thinking that we would be frightened by their numbers and would flee, but instead we met them head-on.” Clearly, Russian pilots had internalised what Sergei Dolgushin, a Russian Air Force ace with 24 victories in WW II, said is a prerequisite to be a successful fighter pilot: “a love of hunting, a great desire to be the top dog”. The Russians nicknamed the B-29s “Flying Shacks” as these lumbering birds burned so easily and well. Former USAF pilot Lt-Col Earl McGill sums up the battle in 'Black Tuesday Over Namsi: B-29s vs MiGs': "In percentages, Black Tuesday marked the greatest loss on any major bombing mission in any war the United States has ever engaged in, and the ensuing battle, in a chunk of sky called MiG Alley, still ranks as perhaps the greatest jet air battle of all time." Impact on American morale The air battle of Black Tuesday would forever change the USAF’s conduct of strategic aerial bombardment. The B-29s would no longer fly daytime sorties into MiG Alley. North Korean towns and villages would no longer be carpet bombed and napalmed by the Americans. Thousands of civilians were out of the firing line. But most importantly, the bravery and skills of the Russian detachment to Korea may have prevented another world war. Kramarenko explains: “The B-29 was a strategic bomber, in other words, a carrier of atomic bombs. In a Third World War – on the brink of which we were – these bombers were meant to strike at the cities of the Soviet Union with nuclear bombs. Now it turned out these huge planes were defenceless against jet fighters, being far inferior to them in speed and armament.” Russia opposed to U.S. missile defense system in South Korea Clearly, none of the B-29s had a chance of flying more than 100 km into the vastness of the Soviet Union and remaining unscathed. “It can be said with confidence that the Soviet airmen who fought in Korea, causing so much damage to the enemy’s bomber aviation, had put off the threat of a Third World War, a nuclear war, for a long time,” says Kramarenko. A few days after Black Tuesday, McGill was seated in the co-pilot's seat of a B-29 on the tarmac at Okinawa air base, waiting for the takeoff order that would send his bomber deep into MiG Alley. Instead of the usual pre-flight banter, the air crew sat silent and glum, as they felt they were going back "to our certain destruction," when news arrived that the mission was cancelled. McGill explains the feeling inside the aircraft: "Those minutes before the reprieve taught me the meaning of fear, which I have never experienced since, not even now as life grows short." Rakesh Krishnan Simha is a New Zealand-based journalist and foreign affairs analyst, with a special interest in defence and military history. He is on the advisory board of Modern Diplomacy, a Europe-based foreign affairs portal. He tweets [email protected] The views expressed here are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of RBTH.

23 марта, 11:50

Steve Bannon's Would-Be Coalition of Christian Traditionalists

From American evangelicals to Russian Orthodox, they're united against Islam. Is that enough to overcome all that divides them?

23 марта, 03:08

How America Should Confront China's Unchecked Maritime Bullying

Rep. Ted Yoho Security, Asia China is increasingly operating not as a strategic rival of the United States, but as a strategic opponent. The House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific recently convened a hearing to discuss the U.S. policy response to China’s maritime push in the South and East China Seas. China has so far suffered no discernable cost for its destabilizing activities in these disputed waters. In Congress, there is growing desire to put a check on this belligerence, which Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis observed has “shredded the trust” of other nations and revealed China’s desire for “veto authority over the diplomatic, and security and economic conditions of neighboring states.” Underscoring the critical interests at stake, the hearing made evident that the United States has several unilateral tools available which could finally begin to impose costs on China’s destabilizing actions in the South and East China Seas. We should start using these tools. Strategic Opponent? China is increasingly operating not as a strategic rival of the United States, but as a strategic opponent, using force and coercion to consolidate control of these disputed maritime territories, which are vital strategic thoroughfares. More than $5 trillion in trade moves through these waters annually, including most of the energy supply of key U.S. partners like the Republic of Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Eight of the world’s ten busiest container ports are in the Asia-Pacific region, and nearly a third of the world’s maritime trade transits the South China Sea. Since World War II, the U.S. military has facilitated these trade flows and economic vibrancy throughout the region by maintaining security in East Asia. Read full article

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22 марта, 23:49

A Vision of Trump at War

Writing in Foreign Affairs, Philip Gordon offers a vision of how President Trump could stumble—through bluster, wishful thinking, and miscalculation—into war with Iran, China, and North Korea. 

22 марта, 17:31

Why do Beijing and Moscow embrace cyber sovereignty?

The idea for an agreement on national cyber sovereignty was proposed by Beijing following its first ever white paper spelling out the view that governments are entitled to the right to control and regulate the Internet on their national territory. Additionally, Beijing made no bones about plans to enhance its cyber warfare capacity as a counter-measure to the exponential growth of threats coming from cyber space. "Cyber attacks, cyber espionage, and surveillance have become major issues confronting all countries," said Long Zhou, coordinator for the Foreign Ministry’s cyber affairs division. The concept of cyber sovereignty, however, is not new. In December 2015, Chinese officials at the Wuzhen World Internet Conference defined their line of thinking: since the Web is a reflection of "physical space" it should be treated as sovereign territory; consequently, it cannot be the object of "foreign interference." Globalism stops here Apparently catering to a wider audience, Mr. Long enumerated other hazards that might ring a bell among many developing non-Western nations: religious extremism, fake news, financial scams, subversive thought, and pornography. This pro-active diplomatic initiative looks a bit out of sync with President Xi Jinping’s apologetic justification of globalism at the Davos forum this year. From the rostrum, the Chinese leader implicitly targeted Trump’s call for economic nationalism and protectionist policies. Globalism means openness and the free flow of everything from goods to information, but Beijing’s ban and tight control over Goggle, Facebook and Twitter and scores of foreign media web outlets runs counter to the Western liberal approach. Fighting 'subversive thought' Russia is setting up formidable defenses against cyber hackers In an era of the forceful redrawing of state boundaries (e.g. NATO assisting separatists to carve Kosovo out of Serbia) and successful Western attempts at regime change in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Ukraine, Chinese leaders are wary of possible attempts to provoke unrest and instability in their highly populated and complicated country. The timing of the disturbances in Tibet that coincided with the Beijing Olympics, and well-organized street protests in Hong Kong, have aggravated long-held suspicions among Chinese elites of covert foreign interference. Despite Washington routinely accusing Beijing of cyber attacks, (classical example: charges are made about "exfiltrating the sensitive records of 22 million federal employees"), there was not a single case when China was accused of attempts to either stir unrest in the U.S. or impose its Eastern values. China’s official line is never to impose its values on countries with different traditions, culture and national identity; and China would like to be treated accordingly. Three-track diplomatic offensive BRICS is not Beijing's only target audience. Since China can boast the largest online population, the recent initiative should be interpreted as an attempt to build support among developing nations and ultimately position the Middle Kingdom as a role model. Oddly enough, China might try to sell the concept of cyber sovereignty to Trump. This assumption is backed by the recent publication in Foreign Policy of an opinion piece by Ran Jijun, associate professor at China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing. Naming the deficiencies of the worldwide information flow, Ran said "the web is based on the expression of moods and the airing of grievances, and is characterized by unreasonableness and a lack of order. Recently, the Internet has also become a place where America’s ever more extreme social conflicts find a voice. The web has become polarized and social rifts have grown deeper, posing a huge challenge to modern American society." While President Trump will most likely pursue a policy of trade sovereignty targeting China, he will not relinquish the leverage of the Worldwide Web that originally spoke only English. Smart and orderly What are the other profound motives of the Chinese government in promoting the concept of cyber sovereignty? There are several key reasons why Beijing is gravely concerned about the developments in the virtual realm, said Oleg Demidov, a cyber security expert at the PIR Center, a Moscow-based independent think tank. "With the digital economy quickly maturing in China and with its leadership placing greater emphasis on becoming not just the manufacturer of high-tech commodities but a producer of advanced concepts of smart technology, interference with these ambitions coming from cyber space is considered to be a genuine threat," said Demidov. Would it be correct to assume that Beijing is responding to anti-Chinese bellicose rhetoric from Trump’s administration? Smartphone virus rating: Russia takes the 'gold' in mobile banking Trojans "Definitely. Moreover, China’s worries of a more hostile background to its bilateral relations with the U.S. are confirmed by the recent disclosure that Trump’s first budget proposal stipulates a significant increase in financial allocations to the U.S. Defense Department and Department of Homeland Security to boost cyber potential," added Demidov. Beijing can hardly be convinced that the financially "steroid-fed" U.S. Defense Department and the not-publicly-mentioned U.S. intelligence agencies would use the enhanced potential for defensive purposes only. The nearly 9,000 documents that reportedly belong to the CIA's Center for Cyber Intelligence, unveiled by WikiLeaks in early March, serve as justification for China’s deep-seated distrust. Tomorrow’s high tech primacy China’s insistence on cyber sovereignty is also driven by concern over the dangers of commercial cyber spying and hacking in the sensitive area of high tech.  "Since the 2010 decision to channel intellectual and financial resources into smart technology, China scored remarkable success in outpacing the U.S. and Japan in the number of patents," said Andrei Ostrovsky, deputy director of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies (IFES) at the Russian Academy of Sciences. "China has registered 1 million patents, although only 5 percent are internationally recognized. Yet, it's a powerful trend." China’s ambition to become "master of its own technologies," as formulated by President Xi Jinping, represents a long-term strategy and has been underpinned by the understanding among political elites that, along with economic and sovereign might, the competitive edge in developing smart technologies is one of the three pillars that a modern superpower should rely upon. As the new emerging incubator of advanced concepts in the fields of robotics, big data, semiconductors, cloud computing, and even AI, efforts to protect China's intellectual property from being stolen is a logical pre-emptive policy. Revelations by WikiLeaks has only increased Beijing’s suspicion of the West. The vulnerabilities of iPhones, smart TVs, Internet routers and Windows PCs to unsolicited monitoring and eavesdropping used by the U.S. spymasters caused alarm in China. "We urge the U.S. to stop listening in, monitoring, stealing secrets and (conducting) cyber-attacks against China and other countries," said Geng Shuang, a Foreign Ministry spokesman. Moscow lends an eager ear Despite claims that Russia lags behind in research and development in high tech, the keen interest by China-based hackers in whatever is happening in the Russian R&D field has been on the rise. Costin Raiu, a top security expert at Kaspersky Lab, the Moscow-based software security company, said that cyber espionage intrusions by "Chinese-speaking" groups against Russian targets increased 300 percent from December 2015 to February 2016. It happened to the detriment of the bilateral cybersecurity deal signed by Russia and China in May 2015, which in essence committed both sides not to engage in hacking each other. This time, however, Moscow might take Beijing to task on what the media called a "non-aggression pact." Moscow will most likely subscribe to the strategies set out in the Chinese white paper, like "...building of a rule-based order in cyberspace, expanding partnership with other countries, boosting institutional reform in Internet governance, jointly combating cyber terrorism and crimes, and protecting individual privacy in cyberspace." "For Moscow, the Chinese initiative on cyber sovereignty is good news," Demidov remarked. The goals articulated by China are compatible with the retroactive measures considered by Russia as a response to the growing cyber attacks and future dangers of foreign cyber intrusions. Vladimir Mikheev is a freelance commentator for Russia Beyond The Headlines. His opinion does not reflect the position of RBTH or its staff. Read more: Russian ATMs catch new virus>>>

22 марта, 00:10

Tech Roundup: Intel Buys Mobileye, Pandora Launches Premium

The top news from last week was Intel (INTC) buying Mobileye for $15 billion, but Pandora's (P) Premium tier, Nintendo's success with the Switch and other news also made headlines.

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22 марта, 00:00

The Suicide of Expertise

Glenn Reynolds, USA TodayAccording to Foreign Affairs magazine, Americans reject the advice of experts so as "to insulate their fragile egos from ever being told they’re wrong.” That’s in support of a book by Tom Nichols called The Death of Expertise, which essentially advances that thesis.

21 марта, 21:40

Is McCain Beyond His Prime?

Doug Bandow Politics, Americas Senator McCain symbolizes a discredited foreign policy disconnected from geopolitical reality. Sen. John McCain has the reputation of a foreign-policy maven. He pays attention to little other than foreign affairs. When he ran for president in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis, he admitted that he didn’t know much about economics, which helped doom his candidacy. Unfortunately, he shows no greater sophistication when it comes to his favorite topic. Nor does he brook disagreement, even if well founded. In his view, those who disagree with him are little better than traitors. Especially Americans who believe that Senator McCain’s most important duty is to protect this nation. In fact, he has routinely advocated what amounts to sacrificing U.S. interests while pushing confrontation and sometimes war with a long list of countries around the globe: Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran, North Korea and, worst of all, Russia. There is scarcely a conflict he doesn’t want the United States to plunge into. And rarely a military deployment he does not want to make permanent. Whatever the international issue, he sees U.S. military action as the answer. In his view, circumstances are irrelevant to foreign policy. Insurgency and secession in the Balkans. Terrorism in Central Asia. Dictatorship and conflict in the Middle East. Nonproliferation in Northeast Asia. The geopolitical detritus of the Soviet Union’s dissolution. In every case he pushes military intervention and action as the answer. Most notably, Senator McCain does not appear to view a threat to the United States as necessary for going to war. Only in the case of Afghanistan was the United States attacked, and by a terrorist group located within the country, not the government. Within weeks, Washington had scattered Al Qaeda and ousted the Taliban regime, punishing it for hosting the terrorist group. Yet more than fifteen years later, he insists that America must continue its Quixotic quest to create a liberal Western-oriented republic where one has never existed, governed by a strong central government in Kabul, which has never ruled the many villages and valleys across the land. Read full article

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21 марта, 08:31

French presidential hopefuls clash on immigration in live debate

French presidential hopefuls clash on immigration in live debate French presidential candidates have battled for almost three and a half hours in their first televised debate. It was the first time in French election history that a debate has been held before the first round of voting. In often-heated exchanges the candidates debated the economy, foreign affairs and immigration. Al Jazeera's Natacha Butler reports from Paris. - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: http://www.aljazeera.com/

21 марта, 01:59

MY USA TODAY COLUMN: The Suicide of Expertise. In the realm of foreign affairs, which should be …

MY USA TODAY COLUMN: The Suicide of Expertise. In the realm of foreign affairs, which should be of special interest to the people at Foreign Affairs, recent history has been particularly dreadful. Experts failed to foresee the fall of the Soviet Union, failed to deal especially well with that fall when it took place, and […]

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20 марта, 19:01

NZ expels US envoy after probe halted

A US diplomat has been expelled from New Zealand after Washington refused to waive diplomatic immunity so police investigating a serious crime could question him, officials said yesterday. Details of

20 марта, 08:21

Про CFR. Зловещее привилегированное меньшинство

CFR — «Council on Foreign Relations» («Совет по международным отношениям»), неправительственная организация, официально основанная 29 июля 1921 года в Нью-Йорке, аналог британского «Королевского института международных отношений» («The Royal Institute of International Affairs», RIIA) и «The Trilateral Commission» («Трёхсторонней комиссии»). Членами CFR становятся влиятельные инвесторы с Уолл-стрит, банкиры, представители исполнительной власти, министры, адвокаты-лоббисты, владельцы СМИ, президенты и профессора университетов, федеральные и верховные судьи, натовские и пентагоновские генералы. Заседания «Совета по международным отношениям» проходят за закрытыми дверями, попасть в Совет можно лишь по специальному приглашению. CFR выпускает журнал «Foreign Affairs» — одно из самых авторитетных экономико-политических периодик мира. Штаб-квартира CFR находится по адресу «Harold Pratt House, 58 East 68th Street, Нью-Йорк».

20 марта, 07:59

Russia, Japan to revive ‘2+2’ format talks, discuss Asia-Pacific security

For the first time in three years, Russia and Japan will hold ministerial talks in the ‘2+2’ format with their ministers of foreign affairs and defense. During the intergovernmental talks on March 20, the Russian and Japanese ministers are going to discuss security issues in the Asia-Pacific region, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Morgulov told Kommersant on March 17. A source in Japan told Kommersant that the Japanese side would apprise the Russian ministers about the outcomes of the talks between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Donald Trump on February 10. The sides would also talk about Japan's “increasing missile defense capacity.” Time ripe for China and Russia to form an alliance - Chinese expert Japan is also likely to question Russia about the recent militarization activity on the Southern Kuril Islands. “We need to reinforce all Russian borders, not only the Western ones,” a high-ranking officer of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces told Kommersant. “We can't have three divisions in the West and zero in the East.” The ‘2+2’ format was originally created for discussing defense issues. It was first used during the 2013 Moscow-Tokyo negotiations on piracy, terrorism, cyber security and military exchange. After Crimea’s reintegration with Russia in March 2014, Japan suspended these consultations. East Asian conflicts Taisuke Abiru from the Tokyo Foundation, who is also a Valdai Club expert, believes that the revival of the ‘2+2’ format is important.  “A revival of talks in the ‘2+2’ format was discussed in December 2016, but was not announced [at the Putin-Abe summit],” he told RBTH. He noted, “Defense issues don’t just concern the Kuril Islands,” adding that there were many other security issues in East Asia.  Is Russia helping China build hypersonic weapons? Valery Kistanov from the Moscow-based Institute for Far Eastern Studies believes that the ‘2+2’ format gives countries “a good opportunity to discuss existing problems.” “It [the revival] has a lot to do with the Korean peninsula in particular, where confrontation between North and South Korea intensifies,” Kistanov told RBTH. “’2+2’ will cover territorial disputes in the East China Sea as well.” Kistanov added that Russia is concerned about “whether Japan will host the THAAD American anti-missile defense system after South Korea agreed to do so.” Kurils joint activity not on the agenda Joint activity on the Southern Kurils will not be on the agenda, as this matter was discussed on March 18 by the deputy foreign ministers of Russia and Japan. Russian Deputy Minister Igor Morgulov told Kommersant after the talks that a “set of proposals for economic development of the Kuril Islands has been formed.” His counterpart Takeo Akibu added, that parties “exchanged project plans on cooperation in fisheries, tourism and healthcare.” Moscow and Tokyo also agreed to discuss, in greater detail, the possibility for former Japanese residents of the Southern Kurils to visit the islands by air. At the moment, Russia allows visa-free travel by ferry from the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido.

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17 марта, 05:02

NEWS FROM THE CLUELESS: Foreign Affairs: It isn’t clear that falling employment for prime-age me…

NEWS FROM THE CLUELESS: Foreign Affairs: It isn’t clear that falling employment for prime-age men should be high on the list of economic concerns.

06 февраля 2016, 11:56

ФРС на Украине: идеальное порабощение

Глава Федрезерва Бен Бернанке сделал все, чтобы вызвать в "незалежной" хаос

03 декабря 2015, 06:06

Ливия. Приглашение в бездну

Из огня да в полымя. Так кратко можно описать последние события в Ливии. Запад взялся за примирение двух правительств, существующих в стране, но последствия этой инициативы могут ввергнуть Ливию в ещё больший хаос и окончательно уничтожить когда-то процветавшее государство.

26 октября 2015, 15:30

Как работать с Россией в Сирии ("Foreign Affairs", США)

Трудно вести войну, когда твои союзники не могут договориться, кто враг. Именно с такой ситуацией Соединенные Штаты столкнулись в Сирии. Вашингтон в попытках создать коалицию для борьбы вынужден уговаривать союзников из Персидского залива, которые хотят воевать с сирийским лидером Башаром аль-Асадом, но не с радикальными исламистами. Ему приходится иметь дело с Турцией, которая выступает против Асада и радикальных исламистов, но воевать хочет преимущественно с курдами. Еще один союзник США Израиль нерешительно смотрит на бурлящий водоворот своих врагов и, как кажется, готов вмешаться лишь в том случае, если появятся серьезные угрозы. И наконец, Германия желает вооружать курдов, а американский спецназ уже взаимодействует с ними. Во всей этой путанице неудивительно, что результаты борьбы с самопровозглашенным «Исламским государством» (ИГИЛ) у коалиции сегодня - весьма неутешительные.

22 апреля 2015, 14:22

Китай: правила дорожного движения для Шелкового пути ("Foreign Affairs", США)

Пекин задумался о евразийской интеграции Пока мир внимательно следит за агрессивным поведением Китая в восточных морях, китайские лидеры глядят на запад. В конце марта китайская Комиссия по национальному развитию и реформам совместно с министерством иностранных дел и министерством торговли подготовила подробный проект «Экономического пояса Шелкового пути» и «Морского Шелкового пути 21 века». Этот проект зачастую сокращенно называют «Один пояс, один путь». В случае успеха амбициозных планов Пекина, Китай станет ключевой движущей силой экономической и дипломатической евразийской интеграции. «Один пояс, один путь» призывает страны Азии, Европы, Ближнего Востока и Африки координировать дипломатические усилия, стандартизировать и объединять торговые площадки, зоны свободной торговли и торговые процедуры, интегрировать финансовую сферу с опорой на юань и развивать международные культурные и образовательные программы. Иногда его называют «китайским планом Маршалла», но китайские власти не согласны с такими сравнениями. С их точки зрения, они объединяют Евразию, а не проводят в ней новые границы и стремятся к экономическому росту, а не к политическому влиянию. Однако это не отменяет опасности, связанной с усилиями Китая: если Пекин не сможет найти баланс между инвестициями и дипломатией, с одной стороны, и поиском политического влияния, с другой, он может оказаться втянутым в конфликты, к которым он не готов. В дальний путь Хотя точная конфигурация «Одного пояса, одного пути» в разных вариантах выглядит по-разному, в целом проект предусматривает, что сухопутный «пояс» из автомобильных и железных дорог, трубопроводов и телекоммуникационных сетей должен будет связать Китай, Центральную Азию, Ближний Восток, Европу и Россию. Морской «путь», в свою очередь, пройдет от берегов Китая по Южно-Китайскому морю, Индийскому океану, Красному морю и Средиземному морю (через Суэцкий канал) с остановками в Африке. В основе «Одного пояса, одного пути» лежит давняя идея китайских ученых о продвижении на Запад в ответ на американский «стратегический поворот к Азии». Название двойного проекта Пекина отсылает к еще боле давнему прошлому — к временам Шелкового пути — и к исторической роли Китая в торговле между Европой и Азией. Китайский президент Си Цзиньпин впервые официально заявил о проекте «пояса» в сентябре 2013 года в Казахстане, а о проекте «пути» — в октябре того же года в Индонезии. Деньги на проекты пойдут из пресловутого Азиатского банка инфраструктурных инвестиций (АБИИ), капитал которого составляет 50 миллиардов долларов, Фонда нового Шелкового пути с капиталом в 40 миллиардов долларов и Нового банка развития, созданного странами БРИКС. По расчетам китайских властей, их программы затронут 4,4 миллиарда человек в 65 странах, а объем торговли Китая со странами-участниками может за десятилетие дойти до 2,5 триллиона долларов в год. South China Morning Post назвала этот проект в своей редакционной статье «самым крупным и масштабным в истории страны». Стратегия «Один пояс, один путь» должна помочь Китаю достичь ряда внутриполитических целей, соответствующих «китайской мечте» Си о национальном обновлении. Главная из этих целей — укрепить китайскую экономику, дав выход излишкам промышленного производства. Сейчас, когда Пекин старается охладить перегретый инфраструктурный сектор, не создавая при этом массовой безработицы, планы, которые позволяют перенаправить вызываемый притоком инвестиций рост за пределы Китая, особенно актуальны. Внутри китайских границ проект фокусируется на сравнительно слаборазвитых западных и южных регионах. Власти надеются, что экономический рост и рост занятости в них помогут снизить межэтническую напряженность — а также улучшат ситуацию с занятостью в других регионах. Во внешней торговле Китай также рассчитывает получить выгоду от валютных операций, подкрепляющих статус юаня как глобальной валюты. Помимо этого, энергетические сделки должны будут гарантировать Китаю бесперебойные поставки энергоносителей на фоне растущего спроса. Вдобавок сухопутная энергетическая инфраструктура сможет ослабить опасную зависимость от морских поставок. К тому же развитые экономики по-прежнему растут медленно, и Китай рассматривает азиатские развивающиеся страны как удобные — и географически близкие — источники роста. «Один пояс, один путь» также служит внешнеполитическим целям, укрепляя отношения Китая с соседями. Двойной проект расширит связи Пекина с ведущими развивающимися странами и сможет послужить основой для новой международной системы, в центре которой будет находиться Китай. Рост значения Китая заставил Пекин смириться — пусть и неохотно — с международными обязательствами, а теперь торговый проект позволит Си начать воплощать в жизнь идею «сообщества общей судьбы», подразумевающую совместный рост азиатских экономик в ближайшие десятилетия. Укрепление двусторонних связей со странами, лежащими вдоль «пути» и «пояса», может помочь Китаю создать сеть незападных международных организаций, в которых он сможет играть основную — если не преобладающую — роль. Такие структуры, как Шанхайская организация сотрудничества и Совещание по взаимодействию и мерам доверия в Азии дадут Пекину возможность обрести дипломатический вес за пределами отношений с Вашингтоном. Препятствия на пути Сейчас «Один пояс, один путь», по-видимому, постепенно набирает обороты. У проекта есть серьезная финансовая база, которую ему обеспечивают, в первую очередь, хваленый китайский АБИИ и поддержка китайских политических и экономических элит. Тем не менее, на пути китайских амбиций по-прежнему лежат определенные препятствия. Хотя попытки заполнить инфраструктурный вакуум Азии (в инфраструктуру в этом регионе необходимо вложить до 2020 года восемь триллионов долларов) можно только приветствовать, прогрессу могут помешать недостаточно жесткие правила кредитования. Если страны-участники потратят связанное с «Одним поясом, одним путем» финансирование на бессмысленные или нерациональные проекты и не смогут расплатиться с долгами, пострадают китайские капиталовложения. Вдобавок, если с этими проектами будут связаны скандалы в областях экологии или прав человека, может пострадать имидж Китая на международной арене. В морской сфере усилия Китая по модернизации портовой инфраструктуры вдоль пути и созданию зон свободной торговли должны увеличить торговый потенциал стран-участников, однако пока не ясно, как «морской Шелковый путь» повлияет на существующие судоходные линии. Более того, хотя китайский министр иностранных дел Ван И (Wang Yi) подчеркивал, что «Один пояс, один путь» не следует считать «геополитическим инструментом», Китай, скорее всего, попробует превратить экономическое сотрудничество в источник политического влияния. Для этого Пекину потребуется преодолеть ряд серьезных преград — таких, как конкуренция в Центральной Азии, Южной Азии и на Ближнем Востоке со стороны Индии, России и Соединенных Штатов. Российский проект Евразийского союза, экономически объединяющего бывшие советские республики, напрямую конкурирует с интеграционной стратегией Китая — несмотря на улучшающиеся китайско-российские отношения. У Индии китайские планы также вызывают опасения, так как проекты Пекина могут подорвать ее программы «Действия на Востоке» и «Связь с Центральной Азией». Кроме того Индию тревожит расширяющаяся деятельность Китая в Индийском океане — особенно в портах, которые могут послужить опорными точками для операций китайского военного флота. Хотя Соединенные Штаты сейчас уменьшают свою роль в Центральной Азии по мере ухода из Афганистана, китайское присутствие в Евразии, на Индийском океане и на Ближнем Востоке все равно будет требовать от Пекина постоянных поисков баланса между конкуренцией и сотрудничеством. Китайцам придется работать совместно с соседями и мировыми державами — вместо того, чтобы бороться с ними. Успех «Одного пояса, одного пути» во многом будет зависеть от готовности капризных региональных и местных лидеров сотрудничать. Многие лидеры, особенно в Центральной Азии и на Ближнем Востоке, опираются на многовековой опыт стравливания иностранных держав друг с другом ради личных политических и финансовых выгод. Скажем, на фоне нарастающего межконфессионального конфликта на Ближнем Востоке китайским лидерам будет трудно совместить давние связи между Китаем и Ираном и новые отношения с суннитскими государствами во главе с Саудовской Аравией. Еще один характерный пример — недавнее решение Шри-Ланки пересмотреть более двух десятков проектов, поддерживаемых Китаем. Вдобавок существуют негосударственные субъекты, порождающие дополнительные политические риски, к которыми Китай не привык. Талибы в Афганистане, «Исламское государство» (ИГИЛ) в Ираке и в Сирии и хуситы в Йемене угрожают китайским капиталовложениям и ключевым перевалочным пунктам на будущих торговых маршрутах. «Один пояс, один путь» станет серьезной проверкой на прочность для внешнеполитической доктрины и внешнеполитического потенциала Пекина. Риторика Китая с ее «взаимовыгодными решениями», «консенсусами» и «невмешательством» может не выдержать столкновения с суровой реальностью, требующей защищать китайских граждан и китайские инвестиции. Опыт китайской миротворческой деятельности в Судане наглядно демонстрирует, что Китай готов идти на военные операции, когда речь идет о защите его финансовых интересов. Китайское стремление не вмешиваться исчезло, когда Судан начал распадаться и под угрозой оказались нефтяные инвестиции Китая. В итоге Пекин был вынужден выступить дипломатическим посредником и разместить в стране свой миротворческий контингент. Если Китай перейдет от простой защиты своих вложений к более широкой геополитической деятельности и начнет активнее вмешиваться в происходящее в других странах, это может окончательно убедить соседей в наличии у него империалистических амбиций. Именно так в последние годы развивались отношения Пекина с соседями по Восточно-Китайскому и Южно-Китайскому морям. Не трудно представить себе нечто подобное и на западном направлении. На оперативном уровне обширные глобальные интересы Китая могут поставить новые задачи перед его растущими, но неопытными вооруженными силами. Недавняя эвакуация китайских граждан из Йемена стала важной вехой: это была первая успешная военная операция по вывозу китайцев и граждан других стран из зоны кризиса. Еще в 2011 году Народно-освободительная армия не смогла осуществить аналогичную операцию в Ливии. В дипломатической сфере Китай явно претендует на глобальную роль. Он пытается стать посредником в афганском урегулировании, организовывая переговоры с талибами, и помочь израильско-палестинскому диалогу, предлагая мирный план из пяти пунктов. Впрочем, пока все эти усилия остаются символическими — у страны до сих пор не получилось добиться подлинных дипломатических побед ни по одному из вопросов, которыми она занималась. В целом во внешней политике Китай может оказаться в парадоксальном положении: пытаясь обеспечить себе стратегическую глубину на западном направлении, он может чрезмерно — и преждевременно — растянуть свои силы, оказаться втянутым во множество конфликтов и столкнуться с проблемами, с которыми он пока не готов справляться. Необходимость превратить «Один пояс, один путь» из амбициозных историко-картографических построений в рабочую экономическую и дипломатическую стратегию и — возможно — в инструмент геополитического влияния, станет испытанием для внешнеполитических возможностей Китая во всех возможных аспектах. Путь на запад может оказаться долгим. Автор: Джейкоб Стоукс (Jacob Stokes),  Источинк: ИноСМИ 22.04.2015 VK.init({apiId: 4591053, onlyWidgets: true}); VK.Widgets.Like("vk_like", {type: "mini", height: 20 }); Tweet апрель 2015